Patriot League: Week 8 Preview

With non-conference play over the schedule lightens up with only three Patriot League games this weekend. The biggest of which is red hot Lehigh invading New England to take on Holy Cross Saturday. Holy Cross will be looking for their second consecutive win over a ranked opponent. The Crusaders defeated then #20 Harvard last weekend. The other game that could factor into the title chase is Georgetown at Fordham. The Rams are also undefeated in league play and can’t afford to be caught looking ahead to next week’s potential showdown with Lehigh. Lafayette travels to Central Pennsylvania to take on Bucknell in the final league game this weekend. Both teams have struggled to varying degrees this year. A win could set the tone for a strong finish to the 2016 campaign.

 #23 Lehigh at Holy Cross – 22 Oct. 12:00 P.M. Fitton Field Worcester, MA

(Patriot League Network)

Lehigh (5-2, 2-0) puts their five game winning streak on the line when they travel to Massachusetts to take on Holy Cross (3-4, 1-1) in a pivotal Patriot League contest. The Mountain Hawks are coming off an impressive 35-3 win over Georgetown. Lehigh’s offense has received all of the attention in recent weeks but the defense put forth their best outing since 2009 against the Hoyas. Another strong performance will be needed against a Crusader offense that is slowly building momentum without all-league QB Peter Pujals.

Speaking of injured quarterbacks, Lehigh’s Nick Shafnisky is currently listed as the starter but the senior has been limited in practice this week. Shafnisky left last week’s game in the second quarter with an ankle injury and never returned. Brad Mayes (19-26 247 yards 2 TDs 1 INT) had another great outing in relief.

Holy Cross enters the game off an impressive 27-17 win over then 20th ranked Harvard. It was Harvard’s first non-conference loss since 2011 (also against Holy Cross). Geoff Wade bounced back from his poor outing against Bucknell with a very good performance in the win (23-35 244 yards 2 TDs) over the Top 25 Crimson. He was helped out by a dominant second half  by the “D”. A similar type of defensive effort will need against the a very explosive Lehigh offense. The Crusaders struggled mightily last season to contain the Mountain Hawk “O”. Lehigh put up 41 points in the first half points while on their way to a 51-38 victory in Bethlehem.

The Crusaders are led by LB Nick McBeath on defense. The junior leads the team in tackles (52 solo, 64 total) and in intangibles. He and his fellow defenders will be forced to tackle in space against the Lehigh offense on Saturday. Lehigh has numerous weapons but none are more potent than their WR duo. The Mountain Hawk’s Troy Pelletier (60 rec 838 yards) and Gatlin Casey (38 rec 799 yards) currently rank #1 and #2 in FCS in receiving yards respectively. How well the Crusaders slow Pelletier and Casey down will go a long way in determining their faith. Holy Cross rush defense (127 ypg allowed) should be able to effectively contain Lehigh’s Dominic Bragalone (76 ypg 7 TDs).

While Lehigh’s defense has shown improvement this year, they’ve given up yards and points in bunches at times. The Brown and White are coming off their best performance in years but it was against a struggling Georgetown offense. Holy Cross figures to present a far tougher test this week given their talented skill players. Like Lehigh, Holy Cross’s offense is led by a dynamic WR combination. Brandon Flaherty and Jake Wieczorek don’t have the gaudy stats like the Lehigh duo but they are extremely dangerous. Flaherty will be used at various positions on the field which puts added pressure on the defense. He battled an injury early in the year but seems to be 100%. Wieczorek has stepped up this year to lead the team in receiving (75 ypg).

This game could be a shootout or a low scoring slugfest like it was in 2011 (14-7 Lehigh win). Both teams need a win to keep a league title in their grasp. The weather could forecast is calling for windy and rainy conditions in the afternoon.

Of Note: Nearly 25 years ago to the day (10/26/91) #3 Holy Cross defeated #19 Lehigh 43-42 in easily the greatest game in the series. The game received national attention throughout the day. Holy Cross dominated Lehigh and the rest of the Patriot League during that time. But, Lehigh has won 5 out of the 6 meetings this decade to take a 17-13-1 series lead.

Lafayette at Bucknell – 22 Oct. 1:00 P.M. Christy Mathewson Stadium Lewisburg, PA

(Patriot League Network)

Lafayette (1-6, 0-2) will try notch their first win in eight weeks against Bucknell (2-4, 1-1) in Lewisburg. The Leopards are experiencing their second difficult (1-10 ’15) season in a row. Lafayette enters the game off a demoralizing 62-7 loss to Army last weekend. The Leopards were run over and around to the tune of 517 yards in the loss. One positive for Lafayette is the fact that Bucknell’s top RB, Joey DeFloria might miss the game due to an injury he suffered in the Colgate loss.

In addition to DeFloria’s potential absence, the Bison are dealing with a revolving door at QB. Bucknell might have to turn to their third different starting QB this season. Walk-on John Chiarolanzio filled in for Matt Muh last week and will likely get the nod if original starter R.J. Nitti is not yet ready to return from an early season injury. The QB injuries have caused the offense to be inconsistent all season. After a solid second half against Holy Cross the Bison could only muster up 7 points against a shaky Colgate defense last week. The game could have been had at 13-7 in the 4th quarter but the Bison offense couldn’t put together a key scoring driving late. Bucknell ultimately lost 27-7. With Fordham and Lehigh still on the schedule, a loss to Lafayette will likely mean another losing season for the Bison.

Given the issues at QB a major key for Bucknell will be getting the ground attack back on track after a subpar outing against Colgate. Lafayette’s rush D (allowing 287 ypg) is extremely porous so whether DeForia or Freshnock (46 ypg 2 TDs) start at RB for the Bison should see ample space to operate. While it’s getting late in the year, the Leopards need to show signs of life against the rush. Having to face FBS Army and Fordham’s Chase Edmonds will hurt most team’s yards again average so there figures to be some improvement moving forward by default. Given Bucknell’s injury woes, this would be the prefect week for Lafayette to get things turned around on defense.

This could be an opportunity for talented Bucknell WR Will Carter (78 ypg 3 TDs) to have breakout performance should Nitti return. Carter has been solid this season but has yet to have a stat stuffing outing.

The defense must step up for Lafayette because the offense will likely have a tough team against the Patriot League’s top defense (22.3 ppg allowed). The Leopard offense currently ranks 6th in the league in scoring (20.6 ppg). The Lafayette offensive line will have their hands full against a talented Bison front 7. QB Drew Reed (65 % comp 202 ypg 8 TDs 8 INTs) has been harassed all season and he hasn’t received an help from a rushing attack that has failed to gain traction (63 ypg). DeSean Brown is the leading rusher with 39 ypg and a paltry 3.1 ypc.

Of Note: Lafayette is Bucknell’s most played opponent with 93 previous meetings. The Bison in turn are Lafayette’s second most frequent opponent (Lehigh, 151 is 1st). After winning 11 out of 12 meetings (including 9 straight) Lafayette has lost the last two against Bucknell. The Leopards still own a commanding 52-35-6 all-time series record.

Georgetown at Fordham – 22 Oct. 1:00 P.M. Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

(Patriot League Network)

Two big time football giants of a by gone era battle it out Saturday afternoon when Georgetown (3-3, 0-1) takes on Fordham (4-2, 2-0) in the Big Apple. The Hoyas will be looking to put a damper on the Rams league championship aspirations. Fordham enters Saturday having won 4 out of their last 5 games since a season opening loss to FBS Navy. Chase Edmonds has been the story all season but QB Kevin Anderson showed what he is capable of in last week’s win over Yale. The transfer from Marshall earned the Patriot League Offensive POW honors for his 5 TD performance against the Eli. The Hoya’s defense is no doubt solid (23.7 ppg, 2nd in PL) but they’ll likely have a difficult time containing the league’s top offense (45.5 ppg).

Georgetown has to find a way to get its offense going. Like other teams in the Patriot League, the Hoyas have been plagued with injuries at the QB position. Clay Norris (92.5 ypg passing 2 TDs as starter) is expected to start his second game in a row. Usual starter Tim Barnes is still recovering from an injury he suffered against Harvard last month. Norris could certainly use some assistance from the rushing attack. Starting RB Alex Valles (53 ypg 1 TD) has yet to post a 100 yard rushing game this season. Both Norris and Valles struggled in last week’s 35-3 loss to Lehigh.

Fordham’s defense has allowed points (33.8 6th in PL) all season so there’s reason to believe the Hoyas will have some opportunities to put points on the board. They key will be generating some big plays against Fordham rather than trying to grind out drives. It would seem to make sense to try and keep the ball away from Fordham but Georgetown has struggled all year to put together extended drives. Several of their TDs this year have come on explosive plays (25+ yards). They’ve also been able to generate points on special teams and defense. Getting points from all three phases will be needed if the Hoyas have any hope of pulling the upset.

The Hoya’s defense has held up admirably all season despite not receiving a lot of help on the scoreboard. Their DL has good size and athleticism. Hunter Kiselick is one of the best, if not the best, defensive ends in the entire league. They’ll make things difficult for the Rams for at least a while. Georgetown held Lehigh’s high scoring offense to 14 first half points. If the offense can provide a few sparks this could be a 4 quarter game.

Chase Edmonds currently leads the nation in rushing with 1065 yards; nearly 200 yards more than North Carolina A&T’s Tarik Cohen (890). The sensational running back is on everyone’s national Offensive Player of the Year short list.

Of Note: Georgetown has not won in the Bronx since a 35-7 romp in 1974. Fordham leads the all-time series 35-22-3. The series is 32-20-3 without the five meetings as club teams between 1965-1969. Fordham has won 4 straight and 14 out 16 meetings since Georgetown joined the Patriot League in 2001.

MVFC: Week 8 Preview

MVFC LogoA weekend of stupidly close games and we are inching ever closer to deciding who wins the conference, who’s making themselves known to the playoff committee for at-large bids, and if anyone appears to be taking over Missouri State’s former “home” at the bottom of the conference standings. Without further ado, here’s where things stand as of this week (conference record listed first, then overall record):

South Dakota State – 3-0, 4-2
Youngstown State – 3-0, 5-1
North Dakota State – 2-1, 5-1
Western Illinois – 2-1, 5-1
South Dakota – 2-1, 3-3
Missouri State – 1-2, 3-3
Northern Iowa – 1-2, 2-4
Illinois State – 1-3, 3-4
Indiana State – 1-3, 3-4
Southern Illinois – 0-3, 2-4

Incredibly, there is a situation where the top four teams in the conference could all finish 9-2 overall. If, for example:

  • SDSU wins the rest of their games
  • NDSU loses to YSU and wins the rest of their games
  • YSU loses to SDSU but beats NDSU and wins the rest
  • WIU loses to NDSU and wins the rest

In that scenario, SDSU would win the conference championship at 8-0 in the MVFC, YSU would be second at 7-1, and NDSU and WIU would both be at 6-2, although NDSU would get the 3rd place nod due to head-to-head results. Some of those results aren’t entirely likely, but there is still a possibility that this is how it could go down.

The matchups for this Saturday are (all time listed in Central and all rankings from the AGS Weekly Poll):

#37T Missouri State at #35T Northern Iowa – 1 PM
#35T Illinois State at #24 South Dakota – 2 PM
Indiana State at Southern Illinois – 2 PM
#11 Youngstown State at #7T South Dakota State – 2 PM
#3 North Dakota State at #13 Western Illinois – 6 PM

All games available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com

#37T Missouri State at #35T Northern Iowa

Missouri State will be taking their 3-3 record (1-2 in the MVFC) up to Cedar Falls to take on the Northern Iowa Panthers, who find themselves sitting at 2-4 (also 1-2 in the MVFC). Missouri State lost a close one to Western Illinois last weekend in the Bears’ Homecoming game and Northern Iowa. Also, if there are any MSU Bears fans out there that were hoping that maybe their original starting QB Breck Ruddick would be back at some point this season, you can turn that “hope” into a “nope” with the recent news that his suspension will stand for the remainder of the season. The Northern Iowa defense spent the weekend hunting penguins in eastern Ohio, but to no avail, as the Panthers fell 14-10 to Youngstown State. I think the best news that Panther fans saw this weekend was former UNI standout David Johnson having a great game for the Arizona Cardinals.

The visiting Bears have been struggling offensively with the previously mentioned suspension of their starting QB as well as having their top WR Malik Earl sidelined with (I believe) a foot injury. I have not heard if he will be playing in this weekend’s game or not at this point. Missouri State’s strength this season is their (currently #29 in the FCS) defense…a big improvement over last year’s dead-last in the FCS finish for yards allowed per game. LBs Dylan Cole and McNeece Egbim have been leading the defense with 66 and 47 tackles respectively. Cole also has 5.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and 3 forced fumbles, while Egbim has 1 tackle for loss and 1 interception. Contributing strongly to the QB pressure front is DL Colby Isbell who has 25 tackles, but 10 of them are for losses (5.5 sacks) accounting for 53 yards. Isbell also has 4 QB hurries and a forced fumble. The Bears “bread and butter” this season has been turnovers…they’re 12th in the FCS for gained turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball, there have been some issues (mostly due to previously mentioned personnel absences), although they do have a few strengths. If WR Malik Earl is playing, then he’s the team’s top receiver, accounting for 68.2 yards per game and 2 TDs. WR Deion Holliman can be a threat at both the receiving position (33 yards per game and 3 TDs) and on kick returns (25.9 yards per return w/ 1 TD). The two top RBs for the Bears are averaging right around 50 yards per game.

The Panthers have had their own offensive difficulties lately, currently sitting at #93 in the FCS for total offense…primarily an issue with their passing game (106th). Their running game isn’t doing too badly, but most of that is due to the fact that QB Aaron Bailey would probably actually be better as a RB than as a QB. He currently averages 71 rushing yards per game and has 6 rushing TDs (that’s actually good enough for 3rd in the MVFC). Bailey averages 147 yards in the air per game and has 6 TDs (which makes him about the 9th or 10th best QB in the conference, depending on what you’re looking at specifically). Their other top RB is Tyvis Smith with 82.67 yards per game and 2 TDs. The top WR is Daurice Fountain with 39 yards per game (so that gives you an idea of how much and how effectively Bailey throws the ball). Like Missouri State, UNI’s real strength is their defense. The 18th best defense in the FCS boasts the #1 player in the country in both sacks and tackles for loss with DL Karter Schult who has 41 tackles, 14 for loss and 8.5 sacks, as well as 1 interception, 2 qb hurries, a forced fumble and a safety. The team tackles leader is actually (son of the HC) LB Jared Farley, who has 45, 2 for loss, and 1 interception. UNI overall is also very good at handling turnovers, with 14 gained and only 6 lost this season (overall that’s #6 in the FCS).

So, is this the year that MSU finally gets a win over UNI (it would be their first since 2005 and first in Cedar Falls since 1998)? Well, I don’t think UNI will put up a ton of points against a decent MSU defense (although not as good as YSU’s last weekend)…maybe 24ish. For Missouri State though, I don’t see them having a ton of luck against UNI’s very tough defense. Having Malik Earl back will help them quite a bit, if he’s ready to go, but I’d say something like 10 points is likely without him and maybe 17 points if he’s playing. At this point I’m going to go with the assumption that he is playing and base my prediction on that.

TL:DR – Northern Iowa by 7

#35T Illinois State at #24 South Dakota

The Redbirds got themselves back on the winning track with a close victory over Southern Illinois last weekend. It was their first conference win this season, so they’re 1-3 in the MVFC and 3-4 overall so far. South Dakota is doing a little better, I think, than most people expected them to, currently with a 2-1 conference record and 3-3 overall following their 2-OT victory against the other ISU (Sycamores) last weekend. Actually, I just realized that this is the second year in a row that a Bob Nielson-led MVFC team beat the Sycamores in OT in Terre Haute (last year’s WIU win over ISUb was essentially QB Sean McGuire’s “coming out” party).

Unlike a lot of MVFC QBs these days (or so it seems), ISU QB Jake Kolbe is pretty much your standard passing QB and not generally a running threat. He’s averaging 229.3 passing yards per game and has 10 TDs. The majority of that yardage goes to WR Anthony Warrum, who averages 86 yards per game and has 4 of those TDs. For the first part of the season, the Redbird’s primary RB was George Moreira, who was averaging just under 60 yards a game rushing, although it looks like he was injured in their game at NDSU a couple of weeks ago (sounds like broken collarbone, done for season)…luckily for ISU, RB James Robinson has picked up some of the slack, running for an average of 112.5 yards per game over the last two games and has 1 TD. Robinson also handles kick return duties, averaging 21.2 yards per return. Safety Alec Kocour leads a defense that is 18th in the FCS against the pass, with 58 total tackles, 1 for loss, 1 interception and 3 QB hurries. LB Alejandro Rivera also gets in on the action with 55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception (returned for 27 yards) and 2 forced fumbles). Getting pressure on the QB is a bit part of LB B.J. Bello’s gameplan, with 7.5 tackles for loss including 5 sacks (out of 49 total tackles) and also has 6 QB hurries and 2 forced fumbles. Another thing to note about the Redbirds is that they are not very likely to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties…being the 12th best in the FCS (#1 in the conference) at having the fewest penalties per game.

Remember that I said it seems like most of the MVFC have very mobile QBs that are almost RBs who throw the ball (except UNI QB Bailey…he’s a RB who really shouldn’t throw the ball)…South Dakota fits that mold pretty closely. QB Chris Streveler averages 158.2 yards per game through the air and has 14 passing TDs. He also is #2 on the team in rushing yards with 79.8 per game and 5 TDs. The primary RB is Trevor Bouma, who picks up 83.8 yards per game and has 3 TDs, as well as being the primary receiving target (in terms of # of catches, with 13) although it looks like it’s mostly short pass stuff, since he only gets 6.6 yards per catch. The actual team yardage leader for receiving is WR Alonge Brooks who has 38 yards per game and 2 TDs. Defensively, LB Jet Moreland is the team’s top tackler with 54 on the season including 2 for loss. DL Colin Mertlik is the sack leader with 5 for 26 yards as well as 2 qb hurries and 1 forced fumble. But the big story for the Coyotes is their kicking game. Kicker/Punter Miles Bergner is averaging 45.8 yards per punt, second in the FCS, which in and of itself would be pretty solid, but he’s also their FG kicker and up until last week, was a perfect 6 for 6 on FGs. He did miss a 40-yarder last week, but he’s hit from 50 yards out, 4 of 5 in the 40 range, 4 for 4 in the 30 range and 1 for 1 from the 20s…and perfect 24 for 24 at PAT’s. Not surprisingly, he leads the team in scoring with 54 points.

In general, I think that the teams are fairly evenly matched on the ground. USD has a better rushing offense, but ISU has a halfway decent rushing defense. In the air, though, ISU has the advantage, with a much better passing game going against USD’s not so great pass defense. USD is better at special teams and while I think that will make a difference in this game, I think ISU has a little bit of an edge overall. I feel like once or twice, we’ll see an ISU passing TD traded for a USD FG and that will give ISU enough of a boost to come away with a close win.

TL:DR – Illinois State by 3

Indiana State at Southern Illinois

The only two teams in the conference who aren’t listed anywhere on the AGS poll go head to head to see who’s really the conference’s “cellar dweller” at the midpoint of the conference season. Indiana State heads down to Carbondale sitting at 1-3 in the conference and 3-4 overall after losing by a FG at home to South Dakota last weekend, and Southern Illinois returns home after losing to Illinois state by a FG last weekend to put them at 0-3 in the conference and 2-4 overall. It’s a unique mascot showdown in the “barn burner for the basement”, as the Sycamores take on the Salukis.

ISU QB Isaac Harker has had a pretty good amount of success so far this season, picking up 285.9 yards per game and 15 total TDs. His 2,001 total passing yards is good enough for 5th in the FCS and #1 in the MVFC (the two ISUs have played one more game than everyone else in the conference though), and he’s 9th in passing yards per game in the FCS. His main passing targets are WRs Robert Tonyan (72.4 ypg, 7 TDs) and Miles Thompson (68.8 ypg, 5 TDs). It sounds like WR Robert Pugh will likely be back as well after sitting out the last couple of games with an injury. Pugh had been picking up 61.5 yards per game in receiving and also handled kick return duties averaging 23.8 yards per return prior to his injury. RB Roland Genesy leads the team with 67.6 yards per game and 6 rushing TDs. Defensively, LB Jameer Thurman is on top with 57 tackles, 9 for loss (1 sack), as well as 1 interception and 2 fumble recoveries. DL Conlan Cassidy has 44 tackles w/ 6 for loss and is the team’s sack leader with 3.5. Cassidy also has 4 qb hurries and 1 fumble recovery.

For the Salukis, they also have a pretty good passing QB in senior transfer Josh Straughan who has 308.67 yards per game and 13 TDs. Overall, SIU has the 7th best passing offense in the FCS. SIU has three receivers who all average over 50 yards per game, with WRs Connor Iwema (65.7 ypg, 3 TDs), Jimmy Jones (54.7 ypg, 2 TDs), and Darrell James (54.2 ypg, 2 TDs). WR Billy Reed is also a frequent target with 47.6 ypg and 3 TDs. RB Daquan Isom gets the majority of the carries with a 61 ypg average and 1 rushing TD, although RB Jonathan Mixon gets called on frequently in short yardage situations (like goal line) with only a 17 ypg average, but leading the team in rushing TDs with 4. LB Chase Allen is the defensive leader in tackles with 39, as well as 3.5 for loss, 7 qb hurries, a forced fumble, and a blocked kick.. DE Deondre Barnett also gets pressure on the QB frequently with 4 sacks for 26 yards, 4 QB hurries, and 3 forced fumbles.

So, SIU has a good passing game that really spreads the ball around…they don’t have one big standout receiver like WIU’s Lance Lenoir for example, but they have 4 guys who are all pretty solid and are all in the top 15 in the conference in receiving yards per game, which can make it kinda hard to defend when they’ve got 3-4 of them on the field at one time. Because of this, they have the 7th best passing offense in the FCS. ISU also has a good passing offense (15th in the FCS), but both teams are below 100th place for passing defense. The ground game appears to be fairly evenly matched for both teams though, so I’d expect a fairly high-scoring, pass-heavy game. I think SIU has a little bit of an advantage in the passing game, plus with them playing at home and on Homecoming, I think this gives the edge to SIU by about a TD…specifically a TD pass to one of the four previously mentioned receivers.

TL:DR – Southern Illinois by 7

#11 Youngstown State at #7T South Dakota State

At the same time as the ISU/SIU “Battle for the Bottom”, we’ll also have Youngstown State and South Dakota State fighting it out to see who is the conference “top dog” at this point in the season. Youngstown State comes in at 3-0 in the MVFC and 5-1 overall following a defensive battle with UNI that resulted in a 4-point Penguin win. South Dakota State is headed back to Brookings with the Dakota Marker trophy/brick after having defeated North Dakota State by 2 points in the Fargodome last weekend and are also at the top of the conference standings at 3-0 and with an overall record of 4-2. Will the Jackrabbits have a letdown from last week’s emotional victory? Will the oppressive Penguin defense be able to stop the offensive firepower that SDSU can bring to bear? Should be an exciting game no matter which way it goes.

Youngstown State has had some problems offensively, most notably with injuries at the QB position. At one point in last week’s game, they were playing essentially their 4th string QB. Their #2 (or maybe he’s #1, I’m kinda unsure at this point) QB, Ricky Davis, had a minor injury and was knocked out of the game, but it sounds like he will be starting this weekend’s game. The original #1 QB Hunter Wells (the starter for the previous year or two) is sitting this season and will likely transfer at the end of the season. The #3 QB on the roster, Trent Hosick, had his season and possibly football career ended after having a broken collarbone. QB #4, Nathan Mays, got into the game against UNI, but didn’t have a great deal of success (although they did win the game, so it’s not like he screwed everything up or anything). It sounds like Davis will start and Mays will be backup, which, if Davis is healthy, is a good thing for YSU. Davis is a decent runner for a QB, picking up 59 yards a game on the ground and throwing for 149.8 yards per game with 5 TDs. Beyond the QB position, the offense mainly revolves around RB Martin Ruiz who’s putting up 82.3 yards per game and has 7 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD. Receivers are mostly used for short throws, picking up first downs, getting into the end zone…that kind of stuff. Every receiver has less than 30 yards per game, although a couple of them (WRs Alvin Bailey and Darien Townsend) have a couple of TDs each.

The real strength of YSU is their dominating (5th in the FCS in yards per game) defense. The Penguins have the best pair of DE’s in the conference, possibly the entire FCS, with Avery Moss (27 tackles, 6.5 for loss of 38 yards, 5 qb hurries, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery) and Derek Rivers (19 tackles, 9 for loss for 49 yards…including 8 sacks, 10 qb hurries and a fumble recovery). Their team tackles leader is the talented LB Armand Dellovade (35 tackles, 4 for loss, 2 qb hurries), which all together helps explain why they have the 9th best run defense. Their DBs are pretty decent as well (14th in the FCS in passing yards allowed, #1 in the MVFC).

South Dakota State has a blistering offense that really has been held in check only once this season, last weekend at North Dakota State (and they still pulled out the win). They’re averaging 40.7 points per game due to some stellar play by “top 5 in the FCS” QB Taryn Christion (323.2 yards per game, 22 TDs, 2 interceptions), another “top 5 in the FCS WR in Jake Wieneke (117.2 yards per game, 11 TDs) and the best TE you will find at the FCS level (hell, you’d have a hard time finding a better one at any level of college football), Dallas Goedert (118.5 yards per game, 9 TDs). They don’t do a ton with the running game, preferring to mostly use short passes to move the ball, so their top RBs, Brady Mengarelli and Isaac Wallace, only get about 46 yards per game and Wallace is the only one with a TD. Defensively, Redshirt Freshman LB Christian Rozeboom has been making a lot of noise with 66 total tackles, good for 7th in the FCS (and the only freshman in the top 90 of that list), as well as 2.5 sacks, a 37-yard pick-6, a forced fumble and has twice received the conference Newcomer of the Week award. Additionally, LB Jesse Bobbit has contributed 52 tackles and 1 interception. In general, good offensive teams have put up quite a few points on the Jackrabbits (averaging 32.5 points per game), but they do seem to be doing mostly better the last few games, averaging 23.3 points per game against three teams who are all in the top half of the FCS in scoring.

So, in general, Youngstown State does really well against teams that like to run the ball, and good but not stellar against teams that like to pass the ball. SDSU passes…a lot…on the level of practically nobody else in the FCS outside of Cheney, WA. I think if the Jackrabbits can get their big receivers out beyond YSU’s front line, they can find the ball enough to be successful…won’t be easy, but they can get it done. When YSU is on offense and assuming Davis is something close to 100%, they’re going to try to run the ball quite a bit, which, if the SDSU LBs are having a good day, won’t work all that well. I think that if Davis isn’t 100% or gets knocked out of the game fairly early and Mays goes in to play, SDSU is likely to win by a couple of TDs. If Davis does play and is near full-strength, I think it’s a much closer battle, but SDSU still has the advantage.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 6

#3 North Dakota State at #13 Western Illinois

And finally, we have the late game (all the others start at 1 or 2 PM, but this one doesn’t start until 6 PM), which, while not quite as big as the YSU at SDSU game in terms of who might win the conference championship, is still pretty huge for considerations like playoff seeding and determining where these two programs are at right now.  A lot of eyes will be on this game to see if the Bison’s loss last weekend was just their “one loss per year” en route to another championship or if it was a sign of slipping a little from being the completely dominant team we’ve seen over the last half-decade. People will also be interested to see if Western is the “real deal” and ready to take the next step upwards. It’s been quite a while since WIU has been in consideration for most people’s top 10 rankings…a win this weekend would likely do it…but can the Leathernecks put together a complete game of playing like they have the ability to and make it happen?

The visiting Bison are coming off an emotional loss to South Dakota State last weekend and are currently at 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the conference. Led by QB Easton Stick, the Bison seem to mostly be a “run first” offense. Stick passes for 188.8 yards per game and has 9 TDs, but he can run the ball well too, rushing for just under 40 yards per game and 3 TDs. They also hand the ball off to their pair of talented RBs King Frazier (77.3 ypg, 5 TDs) and Lance Dunn (56.7 ypg, 2 TDs). That isn’t to say that they don’t pass, because they do have two WRs both averaging between 50 and 54 receiving yards per game: Darrius Shepherd, who has 3 receiving TDs, and RJ Urzendowski, who has 2. Defensively, SS Robbie Grimsley has been making his presence known with 47 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble. LBs MJ Stumpf and Pierre Gee-Tucker also get in on the action with 37 tackles, 1 sack, and an interception (for Stumpf) and 32 tackles, 2 sacks, and a fumble recovery (for G-T).

The Leathernecks had their own close game (really, everyone in the conference did), at Missouri State last weekend, where, for the second game in a row (and third time this season), WIU snached victory from the jaws of defeat, this time coming back with a TD in the last minute (after giving up a 17-point lead) to win. The victory gave them an identical 5-1 overall, 2-1 in MVFC record. Western has a potent offense (not on the level of SDSU, but still good) headlined by the 3rd best WR in the FCS (in yards per game with 126.5), Lance Lenoir. Lenoir had already equalled or surpassed most WIU career receiving records even before the start of this season, so by most metrics, Lenoir is the best WR in WIU history. The other primary WR, Joey Borsellino is averaging 54.7 yards per game and has 1 TD. QB Sean McGuire is a semi-mobile QB, passing for 259.8 yards per game and 10 TDs while rushing for around 15 yards per game and 3 TDs (he’s really good at the QB keeper to pick up one yard when they really need it). Primary RB Steve McShane gets the vast majority of carries, and puts up 108.3 yards per game with 7 TDs and transfer RB Jamie Gilmore has also started to get a decent number of carries, getting the ball 12 times for 42 yards and 2 TDs last week against Missouri State. The Leathernecks defense is led by LB Brett Taylor. The Macomb native has accounted for 61 tackles including 2.5 sacks and 1 interception. LB Quentin Moon has also stepped up this year, putting up 50 tackles with 1 sack, 1 interception, 4 QB hurries, and 1 blocked kick.

Obviously the Bison are an all-around really good team and don’t have a ton of weaknesses. One that SDSU and EWU were able to exploit is their vulnerability to the passing game, which is WIU’s strength. Not sure if it’ll be good enough to put up a good number of points against NDSU, but as I said, it is one of the better ones in the conference. If the Leathernecks want to win this game though, they’ll need to put together a complete game of playing to the best of their ability. Their problem lately is that they just haven’t been consistent. Western will get ahead usually and then often lets teams back in the game in the second half. I don’t know if that’s just them getting tired or complacent with their lead and the letting things slip, or if it’s just a lack of focus, but they do seem to generally have problems in the later stages of the game. They’ve been lucky that in those close “comeback” games, the defense has been able to step up and make some huge stops to save the game, but they won’t always be able to do that.

A couple of interesting stats to look at for this game: NDSU has always prided themselves on their Time of Possession advantage, and they are good…currently 9th in the FCS with an average of 33:27. WIU…currently 4th with an average of 34:36. Obviously something is going to give, both teams can’t have the ball for 33+ minutes in a 60 minute game. Also, Red Zone Defense…the strength of both of the teams on defense is their short game…D-line and LBs mostly. What this means is that when offenses get down into the red zone, the defense is often able to step up and make a stop. NDSU is the 12th best FCS team in this stat…WIU is the 13th….so maybe we’re in for a decent amount of yardage, but few points.

Another thing to consider is that, for some reason, NDSU seems to have difficulties in Macomb. They haven’t ever lost here (in case you didn’t know, I’m a Leatherneck fan who lives in Macomb, so for me, “there” would be “here”), but the last time they played here, it took a 4th quarter comeback of a couple of TDs by a combination of Carson Wentz and John Crockett to win by 7. Will their struggles at Hanson Field continue? That’s hard to say, but personally, I think that NDSU comes in angry about the loss and has some success offensively against the Leathernecks. I think that Western is too good not to score at all (or minimally), but I could see NDSU winning by a TD or so. If Western wins it’ll be on the strength of the passing offense and the ability of the D-line to step up and make stops when they need to. As much as I’d love to pick Western to win (my heart says Leathernecks ❤️ )…I know that NDSU has the advantage at this point (my head says Bison). Probably something in the range of a 28-21 NDSU win is what I think we’re likely to see…but of course, those of you who know me know that I bleed purple and gold (maybe I need to get that checked by a doctor) and I would absolutely love to be proven wrong on this. I’ll take a Leatherneck win over a tough opponent over a correct pick any day.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 7

The FCS Wedge – 2016-10-20 – NEC SotC Show

Lance & Kris shine a little light on the NEC in this week’s State of the Conference and talk about how truly competitive and interesting this conference is.  Even though they operate on a slight scholarship budget these teams compete very well with some of the bigger names in FCS year in and year out and this one is no different.

Listen in if you follow the conference and know it well.  Especially listen in if you don’t follow it because then you can pretend to know something if the topic comes up.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

FCS TV/Streaming Guide: Week Ending 10/22/2016

Provided by FargoBison on AGS again this week.  ALL TIMES CENTRAL.

Another big week of FCS football is upon us with games starting Friday night. As always all games are in central time and if I missed anything please post below and I will update the guide accordingly….

TV Guide:
10/21
Penn at Yale 6 p.m. NBCSN: Direct TV Channel 220
10/22
Lehigh at Holy Cross 11 a.m. SNY: 639 / CSCA: 698
Kennesaw State at Garnder 11 a.m. Webb MASN: 640
Cornell at Brown 11 a.m. FCS
Lafayette at Bucknell noon MASN2
Dartmouth at Columbia 12:30 p.m. OWS: 623
EWU at Montana State 1 p.m. RSRM: 683 / RSNW: 687 / AUD: 601
Missouri State at UNI 1 p.m. CSNC: 665
Youngstown State at South Dakota State 2 p.m. MidcoSN
JSU at Texas Southern 2 p.m. RSSW: 674
Monmouth at Liberty 2:30 p.m. MASN: 640-1
New Hampshire at Towson 2:30 p.m. CSNE: 630 / SNY: 639
Western Carolina at Samford 6 p.m. MASN: 640
North Dakota State at Western Illinois 6 p.m. NBC ND
Montana at NAU 6 p.m. FSAZ: 686 / FSPT: 693 / FSSD: 694
Tennessee State at Vanderbilt 6:30 ESPNU: 208
Sam Houston State at Nichols State 2:30 Altitude 2: 681-1

 

ESPN3
10/21
Duquesne at Saint Francis 6 p.m.
10/22
Harvard at Princeton noon
The Citadel at Wofford 12:30 p.m.
Missouri State at UNI 1 p.m.
Bethune Cookman at Norfolk State 1 p.m.
Illinois State at South Dakota 2 p.m.
Indiana State at Southern Illinois 2 p.m.
Youngstown State at South Dakota State 2 p.m.
Monmouth at Liberty 2:30 p.m.
UT Martin at Georgia State 2:30 p.m.
Presbyterian at Charleston Southern 5 p.m.
Lamar at Central Arkansas 6 p.m.
North Dakota State at Western Illinois 6 p.m.

ESPN Extra:
Missouri State at UNI 1 p.m. Direct TV Channel 790
Youngstown State at South Dakota State 2 p.m. 795
Monmouth at Liberty 2:30 p.m. 788

Where to find other FCS games(FREE) online….
http://lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm (Guide to all games on TV or online webcasts)
Big Sky Conference…http://eversport.tv/big-sky
Big South Conference…http://www.bigsouthsports.com/
Colonial Athletic Association…https://portal.stretchinternet.com/caa/
Northeast Conference…http://www.necfrontrow.com/
OVC Conference…http://www.ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch/
Patriot League…http://campusinsiders.com/network/patriot_league
SoCon Digital Network…http://www.socondigitalnetwork.com

OVC: Week 7 Review and Power Rankings

Two of the OVC’s matchups this weekend came down to the wire with EIU and TSU holding on to their wins because of last second defensive stands.  The OVC hierarchy looks to be laid out pretty clearly now but if this weekend taught us anything, nothing is for certain.  Jacksonville State looked extremely vulnerable in their matchup with Austin Peay, Tennessee State despite being 5-1 is still doing just enough to win their games and winning by slim margins, and Eastern Illinois had their second nail-biter in a row with Tennessee Tech.  

Murray State 31 UT-Martin 38

This game went as expected, lots of offense and minimum amounts of defense. The two teams combined for over 800 yards of offense on the day. UT-Martin was able to capitalize on a pick six and a fumble by the Racers in the first quarter to jump out to an early 20-7 advantage. However, the Racer’s weren’t the only ones having trouble holding onto the ball, 14 of Murray State’s points in the first half came off of Skyhawk fumbles that set up Murray at the Skyhawk 23 and Skyhawk 6 yard lines. The game would go into half at 27-21 in favor of the Skyhawks.  At the beginning of the fourth quarter after a Skyhawk’s field goal, Racer quarterback KD Humphries showed why he is one of the conference’s best quarterbacks. The redshirt sophomore put together put together 6 play 84 yard touchdown drive to move the score to 30-28.  After a quick Skyhawks three and out Humphries moved his squad down to the Skyhawk’s 33 yard line and set up kicker Connor Mitchell to kick a 50 yarder to take the lead 31-30.  The very next play, Skyhawk quarterback Troy Mitchell found receiver Greg McKillion for a 75 yard bomb to take the lead right back, 38-31.

Humphries finished the day 23-44 for 248 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick. Troy Cook would finish 21-38 for 317 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Racers will travel to EIU this weekend and the Skyhawks will take on Georgia State in the Georgia Dome.

Eastern Kentucky 28 #26 Tennessee State 35

Tennessee State continues to take care of business as they defeated EKU this weekend in a thriller.  The defense continues to be the brightest spot for the Tigers as they improve to 5-1.  The Colonels were driving and junior Tiger linebacker Chris Collins stepped up in crunch time to make the game saving interception. The Tigers defense overall was able to generate 5 turnovers and even had a touchdown. Had Eastern Kentucky not turned the ball over 5 times they probably would have won the game.  The Colonels had 584 yards of offense, 350 passing, and a season high 234 (No, Pikeville doesn’t count) on the ground and averaged a healthy 5.8 yards per carry. This game, however, was Eastern Kentucky’s last chance at saving their season.  Even if the Colonels can upset Jacksonville State this weekend and win out they will still be 6-4 against D-1 opponents and that likely won’t be impressive enough for the committee with JSU, EIU, and TSU all playing solid football in the conference right now. Speaking of TSU, if they can win the rest of their OVC matchups they will likely be 9-2 on selection day with losses only to #19 EIU and Vanderbilt.  If they have a respectable showing this weekend at Vandy and handle business for the rest of their OVC slate they should be a shoo-in for an at-large bid.

Tennessee State takes on Vanderbilt this weekend on ESPNU and EKU will host #2 Jacksonville State

Tennessee Tech 24 #19 Eastern Illinois 30

This game came down to the wire and one offensive pass interference call was arguably the deciding factor in this contest.  On TTU’s potential game-winning drive, EIU linebacker Nick Horne was able to stop Michael Birdsong just 3 yards short of the first down marker with 36 seconds left in regulation to ice the game and seal the victory for EIU. The game was a hodgepodge of mistakes at critical moments.  In the first half EIU was intercepted at the goal line and missed a chip shot field goal. Tennessee Tech also managed to gift EIU 3 points when they fumbled on the kickoff to set up the Panthers in field goal range at the end of the first half.  In the second half with the game 20-17 in favor of the Panthers the Golden Eagles made the mistake that allowed EIU to open the game up.  Golden Eagle freshman running back Yeedee Thaenrat fumbled the ball at the TTU 21 yard line and EIU was able to make a touchdown out of it, opening the lead to 27-17. Two possessions later Birdsong was able to string together a 8 play 90 yard drive for a touchdown to close it back up to 27-24 but an EIU field goal 5 minutes later meant the Eagles would need at least a touchdown to take the lead and saved the Panthers from a possible trip to overtime.

EIU will host KD Humphries and the Murray State Racers as Tennessee Tech will host SEMO this weekend in Cookeville.

Austin Peay 14 #2 Jacksonville State 34

So lately I’ve been giving APSU a lot of crap and after Saturday’s game I feel like I owe them an apology.  But they aren’t getting one because they’re still 0-6. However, like I said last week, this team is different, this team has drive.  For the first half Austin Peay looked like a team that believed they could win. They played like it too.  I remember sitting in the stands in the second quarter with the game tied thinking “Gosh, this is it, isn’t it? Our first OVC loss in nearly three years.” The game went into halftime at 14-7 and should have been closer but Austin Peay had their 39-yard field goal attempt blocked.  The Cocks looked weak on offense and the defense had trouble containing Timarious Mitchell all day.  The Gamecocks day was saved when a bad snap deep in the Govs’ territory in the third quarter caused the ball to drop right in the Darius Jackson and set up Eli Jenkins at the 1 yard line.  This mistake by the Govs blew the game wide open and the Gamecocks capitalized on the momentum.  The contest finished 34-14 with Austin Peay’s final touchdown coming with :27 left in the game, deep into garbage time. Had a few more breaks gone the Gov’s way, this game could have been awkwardly close, or a full on upset.  Either way, saying JSU just had a flat game isn’t fair to Austin Peay.  They played extremely well most of the game and are a MUCH improved team.  If they can bottle the intensity they had Saturday and play that well consistently they will definitely pick up a few wins before the end of the season.

The Gamecocks need to lock back in quick if they don’t want to be upset on the road at EKU this weekend and Mercer better be on upset alert when they head to Austin Peay this weekend.

Power Rankings

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (5-1, 2-0 OVC)

Eastern Illinois Panthers (5-2, 3-1 OVC)

Tennessee State Tigers (5-1, 2-1 OVC)

UT-Martin Skyhawks (4-3, 3-1 OVC)

Eastern Kentucky Colonels (2-4, 1-2 OVC

Southeast Missouri Redhawks (2-4, 2-1 OVC)

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (2-4, 2-2 OVC)

Murray State Racers (1-5, 1-2 OVC)

Austin Peay Governors (0-6, 0-5 OVC)

 

SOCON: Week 8 Preview

It’s week eight and the race for the Southern Conference title is still up for grabs.  The Citadel is in the driver’s seat after knocking off Chattanooga last week, but there is a lot of football yet to play.  The Citadel travels to Spartanburg to face Wofford who hopes to get a much needed win over a top 10 team to bolster its playoff hopes.  VMI visits Chattanooga as the Mocs try and bounce back after losing this past week.  Mercer goes out of conference to face the Austin Peay Governors of the Ohio Valley Conference.  Western Carolina is still looking for its first conference win at Samford.  But first, the ETSU Bucs go out of conference with a Div II opponent on Thursday night when they face West Virginia Wesleyan. (SOCON Weekly notes)

West Virginia Wesleyan at ETSU Thursday 7:30PM (SOCON Network)

ETSU, now in its second year back playing football, had a great start. They knocked off Kennesaw State of the Big South, also in its second year of football, and also beat an inconsistent Western Carolina team.  It has been all downhill from there.  The ETSU Bucs have scored a total of 21 points in the last 4 games.

The Bucs are ranked at or near the bottom in the SOCON in many statistical categories.  They are simply getting overwhelmed by very experienced SOCON teams.  Their QB, Austin Herink, has gone 86/148 through the air for 777 yards on the year and has 3 TDs and 2 interceptions.  They have only averaged 103 yards a game on the ground.  ETSU is actually converting third downs 42% of the time, so they have moved the ball occasionally on drives.  They just are not finishing them.  The way they won their first two games was by finishing drives and maintaining a good TOP to keep their inexperienced defense off the field.  But they have steadily gotten worse in that department.

This week they face a mediocre to poor Div II team in the WV Wesleyan Bobcats.  If the Bucs don’t relax too much and execute well, they should be able to gain some much needed confidence, and their third win of the season.  Bucs by at least 2 TDs.

#5 The Citadel at #25 Wofford 1:30PM (ESPN3) (The Citadel game notes) (Wofford game notes)

The Citadel faces its second top 25 team in as many weeks, this time on the road.  It will be the 5th road game of the year for the Bulldogs in seven games.  Wofford had last week off while The Citadel is coming off its biggest win in a while as it took down Chattanooga.

It’s run against run this Saturday in Spartanburg.  With both teams running the option, they execute very good ball control.  The Citadel is #1 in FCS in time of possession at over 35 minutes a game.  Normally that would be a huge advantage, except Wofford in #2 in this stat and only behind by a few seconds a game.

The Citadel has had a lot of success lately in keeping drives going.  It converts 52% of its third downs.  Wofford has done almost as well at 48%.  The Citadel leads FCS in yards rushing per game at 381.  Wofford is at #4 with 312 yards a game.  Neither team can expect to gain much advantage by holding the ball a long time on grinding drives.

The game is going to be decided by how well each team’s defense performs.  However, they both know how to defend against the option.  While there may be some passing here and there, these teams are ranked dead last at #121 and 122 in passing yards this season so don’t expect a lot of passes.  Last year’s matchup did featured 26 pass attempts between them.  So far this year The Citadel is averaging 7 attempts a game and Wofford is averaging 10 attempts a game.  Who knows, they might just have to open up an aerial attack if they are both successful stopping each other on the ground.  Wofford is allowing the lowest rushing total in FCS so far at 50 yards a game, but they have not had any serious running offenses to deal with either.  The Citadel has allowed 108 yards on the ground a game, but they have faced credible running attacks in both Mercer and UTC.  Overall, The Citadel is giving up 301 total yards a game and Wofford is allowing 254 a game which is good enough for the #2 spot in FCS.

In stopping drives The Citadel has a slight edge holding opponents to a 33% success rate on third downs.  Wofford is allowing conversions 43% of the time.  In the red zone, Wofford has allowed TDs in 10 of 14 tries.  The Citadel held opponents to TDs 6 times in 10 tries.  The Citadel defense has done a good job in the second half this year and specifically the fourth quarter.  It has only allowed 14 points all year in the 4th.  However, Wofford has done almost as well only allowing 17 points in the final period.  Both of these teams know how to finish games.

With very similar game plans and capable defenses, the game might be decided by turnovers and special teams.  Both teams are on the plus side on turnovers with Wofford at +6 and The Citadel at +5.  On special teams, Wofford has the SOCON punting leader who averages 47 yards a kick.  The Citadel punter averages 41.  On punt returns The Citadel averages 12 yard a return, Wofford averages 4.   The Citadel is leading the SOCON in kickoff returns at 24 yards a return and Wofford is last with 17 yards a return.  Wofford’s field goal kicker has gone 7 for 10, but one of those was a 57 yarder so he has a pretty good leg.  The Citadel’s kicker has been successful on 6 of 8 with a long of 45.  Both teams appear fairly matched on specials as well.

Although Wofford has been successful running, their current QB has not gotten a lot of yards since taking over completely a few weeks ago.  Wofford had been playing QB by committee previously.  Brandon Goodson is the third QB this year after they lost the first two to injuries.  The dynamic Bulldog QB Dominique Allen will be the difference in the game and will keep the chains moving a bit more than the Terriers.  In the first three games this year The Citadel averaged 291 yards rushing a game.  Allen got some playing time in two of those games but didn’t start.  In the next three games, with Allen starting, the Dogs have averaged 471 yards a game rushing.  The experience he brings was really demonstrated in the game against Chattanooga where he rushed for a career high 135 yards.  As a result, the Bulldogs should win by more than a TD.

VMI at #10 Chattanooga 2PM (SOCON Network) (VMI game notes) (UTC game notes)

VMI was manhandled a bit last week by Samford.  The Chattanooga Mocs lost their first one of the year as they lost at The Citadel.  They will be hungry to stay in the hunt for the title, especially if The Citadel stumble later on.  The biggest question for this game is whether the Mocs outstanding running back Derrick Craine will play.  He tweaked an ankle during the game in Charleston.  Chattanooga will no doubt take a hit without him.  He is a play maker.

The Mocs are averaging 424 yards a game on offense.  Craine accounted for 119 of those on average. Chattanooga’s QB, Alejandro Bennifield has gone 105/160 for 1474 yards with 16 TDs and 4 interceptions on the year.  Even without Craine, the Mocs are formidable.  On the ground, UTC is averaging 206 yards a game.

As good as those numbers are, the Mocs real strength lies in their defense.  They give up only 245 yards a game.  Good enough for the #1 spot in FCS.  Against the pass, they are #1 as well, but their numbers were obviously bolstered by the huge 7 yards they gave up to the Citadel.  Still, they are giving up only 135 yards a game through the air and have 5 interceptions.  The Mocs have 16 sacks on the year as well.

That isn’t good news for the Keydets who thrive on the pass.  Although VMI has attempted to run more this year than they have, their success is primarily through the air and the arm of Al Cobb.  Cobb has gone 144/215 for 1459 yards and tossed 8 TDs and 5 interceptions.  The Keydets have 129 yards per game on the ground.  They are converting 36% of their third downs.

On defense VMI continues to give up huge chunks of yards, 435 a game.  But they are stopping opponents on third downs fairly well and are holding them to a third down conversion rate of 34%.  They only have 10 sacks on the year with Jr linebacker Ryan Francis leading the way with 6.  They average just over 6 tackles for loss a game on defense.

VMI will probably not give up the huge number of yards through the air that it allowed against Samford’s Hodges.  However, they will still have their hands full with Bennifield and the Mocs outstanding receiver Xavier Borishade.  If Cobb can keep from turning it over, they may be able to keep it close, especially if Craine does not play.  But the Mocs should win in either event and by at least 3 TDs.

Mercer at Austin Peay 4PM (OVC Network) (Mercer game notes)

Mercer finally opened up a little against WCU last week. They got a little help with some turnovers, but they executed well and finally got a comfortable win this year.   This is the third time that the Bears will face the Governors of Austin Peay.  They won the first two fairly easily.  This year Austin Peay has yet to win a game and is at 0-6.  However, they tried to make a game of it against Jacksonville State this past week and were only down 14-7 at half.

The Bears have done well on offense this year and have averaged 401 yards a game.  They have a fairly balanced offense with 230 through the air and 171 on the ground.  QB John Russ has gone 123/196 for 1373 total yards with 9 TDs and only 3 interceptions.  Alex Lakes and Payton Usher are top 10 SOCON rushers and average 115 yards a game combined.   Mercer has moved the ball well and converted third downs 45% of the time.  The Bears has benefited in turnovers and is at +5 for the season.

On defense Mercer has given up 407 yards a game, including 174 on the ground and 233 through the air.  They have 14 sacks on the year.  Their special teams are solid.  One area that the Bear could improve in is penalties.  They average 7 a game for 77 yards.

Austin Peay only gains about 312 yards a game and surrender over 550.  Mercer should be able to move the ball against them fairly easily.  The Governors allow over 300 yards through the air each game so Russ should have a good day.  Look for the Bears to win by at least 14.

Western Carolina at #17 Samford 7PM (TV-ASN) (WCU game notes) (Samford game notes)

The Samford Bulldogs have one of the most explosive passing offenses in FCS.  The Catamounts of Western Carolina are going to have their hands full.  The Cats have a pretty good pass attack as well, but it doesn’t come close to Samford’s.  If the Bulldogs has a weakness, it is their dismal running game.  But since they keep winning it has not hurt them lately.  They have only lost to Chattanooga so far.  The Central Arkansas game was tight at the end although the Bulldogs pull that one out after going up big to start.  In both those cases, Samford simply could not keep the ball away from the opposing offenses long enough to keep them from scoring.  Samford’s scoring drives are usually under 2 minutes and some under a minute.  In other words, their defense is on the field a lot.

The Samford defense gives up yards to the tune of 396 a game so far.  That includes 222 in the air and 174 on the ground.  Their time of possession is pretty low at about 25 minutes a game.  That might have really helped WCU in this game if it were not for the fact that they are even worse at only 23 minutes of possession a game.  The Cats can move the ball, but they do it in big chunks and not steady drives.  They average 398 yards a game with 284 through the air on average.  Western is only converting its third downs at a 34% rate.

Tyrie Adams, the Cats redshirt freshman QB, has done well in his first year starting going 140/212 with 11 TDs and 7 interceptions.  Western has been sacked 16 times so far this year though and he hasn’t always had time to get off good passes.  But when he does, he is pretty accurate.  WCU does have a passable running game with Detrez Newsome leading the way.  He is averaging 75 yards a game rushing, 36 receiving, as well as returning kickoffs.  He is an athlete for sure.  If the Cats have any hope in getting a win on Saturday they at least have to keep the ball away from Samford’s Devlin Hodges for as long as possible.

Hodges has gone 180/249 for 2070 yards so far.  He has 22 TDs and only 4 interceptions.  He is quite a capable passer.  He put up over 400 yards passing in the last two games against Furman and VMI.  He had over 300 at Wofford and UTC.  Samford is currently at #3 in FCS in passing yards.  As mentioned already, the only weakness Samford has, especially if someone can shut Hodges down, is that they have no running game.  At all.  If you take away the 221 yards they got against Div II Mars Hill, they have a total of 252 yards in 5 games for just about 50 yards a game against Div I opponents.  That’s even worse than The Citadel’s or Wofford’s passing game.

Western’s defense has giving up almost 500 yards a game, but only 186 of those through the air.  But it should be noted that they have faced The Citadel, Wofford and Gardner-Webb who all have predominantly running games.  So the numbers are a bit skewed as a result.  Against ECU they gave up 413 passing yards and 224 in the air against Mercer’s balance attack.  The Cats defense only has 5 sacks on the year as well.

The one area that WCU has got to get under control is its turnovers.  They are at -8 right now.  They have lost 8 fumbles and 7 interceptions.  Samford is going to eat them alive if they turn it over.  The Bulldogs already have 2 pick sixes and 2 scoop and scores on fumbles.

All that said, Samford and Hodges are on a roll right now and they will be just a bit much for the Catamounts defense.  Samford is probably also looking to avenge the thumping the Catamounts gave them last year in Cullowhee.  Samford should win by at least 3 TDs.

 

BIG SOUTH: Week 8 Preview

After three straight weeks of one program or another taking the week off, it’s a full slate of conference games this week in the Big South.

 

 

(4-2) Kennesaw St @ (3-4) Gardner-Webb – Saturday, Oct 22nd, 12:00pm (American Sports Network) 

A week after hard-fought losses, both these teams come into this game looking to get back on the right track.  The hard reality is that this game will likely determine the course of the rest of the season for both teams.  The winner still has an outside shot at winning the conference and the loser is likely playing for next year.

Kennesaw comes into this game looking for some redemption.  Unlike a year ago, they were in the game with Liberty all night long.  The upstart Owls came up short, however, and have still yet to prove they belong in the upper tier of the Big South.

A year ago at home against Gardner-Webb, Kennesaw couldn’t find the end zone but got four Justin Thompson field goals and the defense made those points stand up in a 12-7 win over the visiting Bulldogs.  KSU’s triple-option offense has significantly improved this season with the emergence of a real passing attack with Chandler Burks and Daniel David under center and an absolute weapon at receiver in Justin Sumpter.  Sumpter, however, has missed the last two games with an injury and isn’t on the depth chart for this game either.  Xavier Harper has performed well in his absence but isn’t the same kind of game-changing player.

Kennesaw’s defensive is as aggressive as ever and is productive.  Dante Blackmon leads the conference in interceptions, DL Desmond Johnson leads the conference in sacks and DL Tornarius Portress leads the league in tackles for loss.

The Owls’ kicking game, however, is suddenly shaky all the way around.  Against Liberty, Justin Thompson missed a 26-yard field goal in the first quarter that would have re-established KSU’s early lead. If KSU had hit that early field goal, perhaps they would have been more confident in sending the kick unit out instead of going for it on 4th down.  The Owls were 0-3 on 4th down and all of them were within what would be considered reasonable field goal range. In the 4th quarter, the KSU coaching staff sent Jordan Genovese out to kick a crucial extra point only to see him crank the kick wide right while, simultaneously, getting a false start penalty called on himself (he did convert after the ball was moved back 5 yards).  To top it off, the kickoff unit gave up the only kickoff return touchdown in the conference so far this season on a play in which the Liberty returner caromed off of three KSU tacklers without slowing down.

For their part, Gardner-Webb is looking to bounce back after an extremely poor offensive effort against Coastal Carolina.  Aside from an absolute gift from Bulldog defense that gave them the ball at Coastal’s 8-yard line just before the half, G-W did not cross midfield on offense until there was only a minute remaining in the game and they were down by two scores.  The ground game is the heart and soul of Gardner-Webb’s offense and primary ball carriers QB Tyrell Maxwell and RB Khalil Lewis only managed 75 total rushing yards between them.  The result was that G-W lost the time of possession battle to Coastal, a team running a hurry-up spread offense.  A pattern is developing here where the G-Webb offense needs to get a big play or have the defense/special teams establish favorable field position for them.  The Bulldogs haven’t had a scoring drive of longer than eight plays since their last garbage-time drive against Ohio.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are much improved over just a month ago.  After getting railroaded by Western Carolina – a loss that’s looking worse with every passing week –, The Citadel and Ohio in September, G-W has now only given up 20 points in three games in the month of October.  Granted, two of those opponents were D2 Benedict and Presbyterian – an offensive Bermuda Triangle – but Coastal had been averaging more than 42 points going into that game.  This same defense kept Kennesaw out of the end zone entirely in their game last year and it’s reasonable to expect that they would perform nearly or equally as well this time around.

What Kennesaw has to do against Gardner-Webb:  Score in the red zone.  KSU was only 1-of-4 in the red zone against Liberty and has only scored 20 touchdowns in 32 trips to that section of the field this year.  That’s just under 63% against a schedule that has not been exactly overwhelming.

What Gardner-Webb has to do against Kennesaw – Sustain drives.  The best defense that Gardner-Webb has against Kennesaw’s triple-option offense is to keep it on the sidelines.

 

(4-3) Monmouth @   (3-3)   Liberty – Saturday, October 22nd, 3:30pm (LFSN, ESPN3)

A year ago, Monmouth defeated a ranked Liberty team 20-17 in overtime for one of the landmark wins in program history.  This time around doesn’t have nearly the same cache around it.  Liberty is receiving votes in some polls but a Monmouth win here would hardly be called an upset.

Monmouth comes into this game having started off strong with wins over Lehigh and Fordham but suffered a startling loss at Presbyterian on Thursday that dropped the Hawks to 0-2 in the Big South standings. No FCS team has ever lost to Presbyterian in the regular season and gone on to make the playoffs.  This is an inherent and tautological truth.

Offensively, the Hawks’ Lavon Chaney returned to his electric athletic self against the Blue Hose, rushing for over 150 yards and providing a spark that Monmouth desperately needed.  Reggie White, Jr., however, was nowhere to be found.  He caught three passes for 40 yards but had almost no impact on the game.  White did catch an apparent touchdown pass in the 4th quarter that would have given Monmouth a lead but the play was called back because White had obviously pushed the off defender to catch the ball.  Instead of a go-ahead score, the Hawks were forced to punt from the PC 39.  To be fair, much of White’s ineffectiveness had to do with Presby pressuring the Monmouth quarterbacks.  Presby’s defensive line had been hit hard by the injury bug for the first portion of the season but MU starting quarterback Cody Williams was forced to scramble for most of the first half. When he left the game to an ankle injury, Kenji Bahar didn’t fare much better.   Head coach Kevin Callahan has listed Cody Williams as “hopeful” for this week – that’s an injury designation that’s new to me; it’s better than “hopeless”, I suppose – but it’s hard to imagine that that won’t be the case again this week.

Defensively, Monmouth is led by S Mike Basile and have a pretty strong defensive front of their own, particularly in DL’s Darnell Leslie and Manny Maragoto.  Still, it’s been quite some time since the Hawks’ D has put together anything that could be considered a quality outing.  They shut down Lehigh for most of the game and Delaware State – again, for most of the game – but are averaging 30 points a game against over the last four weeks.  Against Presbyterian, the secondary looked completely confused and it’s easy to believe, at this point, that the road warrior schedule might be catching up with them.

On the other side, Liberty comes into this game fresh off a solid win at Kennesaw that was as balanced a game as the Flames have put together all year.  Offensively, LU got key contributions from three different running backs and QB Buckshot Calvert completed 73% of his passes while distributing the ball to 11 different receivers.  Defensively, while Liberty gave up a lot of yards between the goal lines, they were strong where it mattered – the last one.  Despite not getting any turnovers for the first time all season, two dramatic goal line stands will do wonders for a defense’s confidence and the Flames have got to be feeling good on that side of the ball.  Meanwhile, freshman kicker Alex Probert banged home kicks from 47 yards, 50 yards and 47 yards again, becoming the first player in conference history to hit three kicks from beyond 45 yards in a single game.

Offensively, Liberty will try to pick up right where they left off, spreading the ball around and forcing the Monmouth defense to pick their poison.  LU has had some injuries up front but, coming out of the bye week, appear to have finally found an OL combination that works. Defensively, Liberty will have to contain Chaney while, at the same time, getting pressure on Williams and/or Bahar.  Bahar doesn’t see the field and get rid of the ball quite as quickly as Williams but he’s more of a physical athlete.  Chaney, however, is the key cog in the Monmouth engine and how Liberty defends him will determine how well the Flames’ defense succeeds.

What Monmouth needs to do against Liberty:  Keep the ball.  A year ago, Liberty doubled Monmouth up in nearly every significant statistical category but gave the ball to Monmouth three times.  This year, the LU defense was averaging more than three takeaways prior to the Kennesaw game.  That number is under 3.0 now and Monmouth needs to make it go down even further.

What Liberty needs to do against Monmouth – Don’t let Reggie White, Jr., beat you.  The defensive focus has to be on shutting down Chaney but White is still a big, physical receiving target and he’s turned more than one short catch into a long, highlight score simply by running through tackles.

 

(2-4) Presbyterian @ (3-2) Charleston Southern – Saturday, Oct 22nd, 6:00pm (ESPN3)

Presbyterian and Charleston Southern have played every year since CSU began their program in 1993 even through PC was in a lower NCAA classification for most of that time span.  In their D2 days, PC owned a 12-game win streak against CSU but have gone just 2-7 against the Bucs since moving to FCS.  The last several years have been very tight contests, however.  In their last visit to Buccaneer Field in 2014, Presbyterian scored a touchdown on their opening drive and then made that single touchdown stand up for a 7-3 Blue Hose win.  Last year’s matchup in Clinton was heading much the same way until CSU finally cracked the end zone midway through the 4th quarter to earn a 10-7 victory in the closest game of their season.

Presbyterian comes into this game fresh off a home win over Monmouth last Thursday night.  Springing to life much like a California wild fire – burning brightly and once every few years – the PC passing game overwhelmed the Monmouth defense.  Even after starting quarterback Ben Cheek – who was on his way to a career night – was forced out of the game to injury, John Walker picked up right where he left off.  The result was the most yards through the air for PC since 2013 and finally allowed the offense a bit of balance to offset the ground game.  Can Cheek/Walker and the receiving corps continue that pace against a CSU defense that hasn’t played a live game since October 1st?  I don’t know because there are other questions that line up first:

  • Is Cheek even available to play? During the Monmouth game, Cheek and his throwing shoulder were propelled directly into the Bailey Memorial turf by an unblocked linebacker.  He was helped off the field by the PC medical staff and did not return.  Head Coach Harold Nichols has said that Cheek’s status is day-to-day but it’s hard to look at that hit and assume that the player will be back in nine days’ time.
  • If Cheek is out, is John Walker even the next man up? Presbyterian has seven quarterbacks on the roster and not much is known about any of them.  Of those seven, only three (Cheek, r-Fr. Cal King and Fr. Mario Cusano) are Signing Day signees, typically the group where your first-team players eventually come from.  Presumably, the rest – Walker and previous game-starter Will Brock included – are or were at one time walk-on players.
  • Does it even matter? RB Darrell Bridges has been a constant for PC but the rest of the offense, regardless of starting QB, has been wildly inconsistent.  There’s a very reasonable possibility that the wildfire against Monmouth may been more of a momentary blaze and that the Blue Hose offense will revert to a more recent form which in non-ironic fashion is pretty much formless.

As mentioned previously, this will be the Buccaneers’ first time setting foot on a game field since storming Coastal Carolina’s following a 59-58 double OT win three weeks ago.  This will also be CSU’s first home game since facing Kentucky State all the way back on September 3rd seven weeks ago.  Thanks to the unscheduled portion of the schedule – namely, Hurricane Matthew – CSU is pretty much in uncharted territory here. No FCS team in recent memory has ever had three open dates in the middle of an 11-game season. *(Eastern Washington did it in 2014 by playing in the FCS Kickoff game and scheduling only 11 games in a 12-game year)*  Also, no FCS team in recent memory has ever had back-to-back open dates in the middle of the season.  Through eight weeks, CSU has played five games and only three of those against comparable competition.  This could make CSU the most rested and refreshed team in the country and it could also make them the least experienced and least mentally prepared.

One more thing is that CSU head coach Jamey Chadwell had been scheduled to sit out the Albany State game as a consequence of their NCAA issues earlier in the season.  When that game was cancelled there was no indication of when that suspension would be moved to.  Given the competitive nature of this series, its import to the season and the simple fact that this is CSU’s homecoming, it’s doubtful that this week will be that game.

There’s not much to say about CSU from a personnel standpoint at the moment.  QB Shane Bucenell should start and pitch the ball to their stable of running backs.  At this point, CSU has to be the healthiest team in the conference.  Any lingering minor injuries left over from the Coastal game should have cleared up by now.

What Presbyterian has to do against CSU:  Get a first-half touchdown.  In Presby’s two wins this year, they’ve gotten the ball into the end zone at least once before halftime.  In the games they’ve lost, they haven’t.

What CSU has to do against Presbyterian:  Shake off the rust early because Presby is going to try to knock it off.  Presby’s defense was aggressive against Monmouth and they’ll only be even more so against the conference front-runners.

 

One more miscellaneous note: as mentioned, this is both CSU’s and Liberty’s homecoming.  Two other Big South programs (Gardner-Webb and Kennesaw State) held theirs this past weekend and both lost.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1019- LISTEN UP!

It was a big week with some underdogs coming away with some very big wins. The terrible two of Lance & Kris go over those games along with some other tag along’s for good measure.  Check out what they have to say on these:

The Citadel 22 Chattanooga 14

South Dakota State 19 North Dakota State 17

James Madison 42 New Hampshire 39

North Dakota 45 Southern Utah 23

Youngstown State 14 Northern Iowa 10

Maine 20 Albany 16

Richmond 23 Villanova 0

They go over this week’s poll, the upcoming games of note, and also give a brief thought on Delaware and the decision to fire coach Brock.  Class begins today when you hit “play”.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

CAA Week 7: Review and Power Rankings

Week 7 of FCS football is in the books and already teams are fighting for their spot in the postseason. At 4-0 in league play, James Madison is the clear favorite to win the league, but as we all know. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the meat grinder known as the Colonial Athletic Association. Will anyone knock off the number one team in the league? Or, will the preseason polls be proven wrong?

Maine 20, Albany 16

When the Great Danes of Albany traveled to Maine on Saturday they did so coming off an exciting triple overtime loss to the Richmond spiders. Maine would hand them their second straight loss in league play as QB Dan Collins threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns to carry the Black Bears toward a 20-16 victory. RB Darian Davis-Ray had the most rushing yards for Maine coming in at 81 yards off of 16 carries.

James Madison 42, New Hampshire 39

When James Madison traveled to New Hampshire on Saturday they did what most teams have been unable to do before them. Defeat the Wildcats in Durham. Although UNH would outgain JMU 569-437 yards, and beat JMU in time of possession 34:46 to 25:14, the efficiency of the JMU offense, and mistakes by the Wildcats would prove too much for UNH to overcome. QB Bryan Schor for JMU would end up completing 15 of 24 passes, and come away with 242 yards and 4 touchdowns to lead his team to victory.

Dartmouth 20, Towson 17

While a CAA matchup between JMU and UNH was taking place in NH, another team was fighting for their lives against out of conference Dartmouth in Hanover NH. Towson was hoping to pick up its second win of the season in the only out of conference game on the CAA slate, but a last second field goal by Dartmouth would quickly dash those dreams. Towson would outgain Dartmouth in total yards 470 to 253, but it would be the defense for Dartmouth coming up with two interceptions that would help to seal the deal hand Towson their fifth loss of the season.

Richmond 23, Villanova 0

What was billed as the CAA game of the week, ended up becoming quickly lopsided as the Spiders of Richmond blanked the Wildcats of Villanova. QB Kyle Lauletta for Richmond would put the Wildcats away completing 17 of 26 passes, for 218 yards and 1 touchdown.

 William and Mary 24, Delaware 17

William and Mary picked up a much-needed win as they put up 21 points in the fourth quarter to snatch victory away from the Blue Hens of Delaware. RB Kendall Anderson was instrumental in their win as he gained 115 yards on 27 carries and a touchdown.

Stony Brook 14, Rhode Island 3

Stony brook picked up its third conference win Saturday as the struggling Rhode Island Rams fell to 1-6 on the season, and 0-4 in the conference. Running backs Stacy Bedell and Jordin Gowins for Stony Brook ran for a combined 248 yards from 47, and a touchdown each carries to help put away the Rams.

Power Rankings

1. Richmond

2. James Madison

3. Villanova

4. Stony Brook

5. New Hampshire

6. Albany

7. Maine

8. William and Mary

9. Towson

10. Delaware

11. Elon

12. Rhode Island

 

Must Watch Week 8

For the first time in quite a while, this week’s games start early. Be sure to catch the key NEC match-up on ESPN3 on Friday night. A lot of conferences have big games this weekend. We cover them all below.

Friday, October 21st Time(CST) TV
Duquesne @ St. Francis 6:00pm ESPN3
Saturday, October 22nd
Lehigh @ Holy Cross 11:00am NESN+/*ASN / STREAM
Harvard @ Princeton 12:00pm ESPN3
The Citadel @ Wofford 12:30pm ESPN3
Youngstown State @ South Dakota State 2:00pm ESPN3
Jacksonville State @ Eastern Kentucky 2:00pm STREAM
Albany @ Villanova 2:30pm STREAM
Sam Houston State @ Nicholls State 3:00pm *ASN / STREAM
Lamar @ Central Arkansas 6:00pm ESPN3
North Dakota State @ Western Illinois 6:00pm ESPN3
Weber State @ Southern Utah 7:00pm STREAM

 

    • Duquesne started the season as the clear-cut favorite to win the NEC. St. Francis was picked third. Both teams come into this weekend undefeated in conference play. St. Francis drew some attention with better than expected performances in their non-conference schedule. The winner of this game has high odds of going to the playoffs representing the NEC.
    • Lehigh is off to a strong start in Patriot League play after a big win over Colgate and taking care of business against perennial basement dwellers Georgetown. This game wasn’t on my radar until Holy Cross showed signs of life last weekend with an upset win over Harvard. It changed my thinking that Lehigh only had to worry about Fordham.
    • Speaking of Harvard, they are still undefeated in Ivy League play. They take on another squad that is perfect in the IL when they head to Princeton on Saturday. The Ivy League insulates itself from much of the FCS world, but we do get chances to watch some of their premiere match-ups.
    • The Citadel is coming off of a huge win over Chattanooga and heads to Spartanburg to take on a Wofford team that is fighting for a playoff spot. This should be a quick game with a lot of yards on the ground for both teams so be sure to squeeze it into your schedule.
    • Youngstown State finished their win over Northern Iowa last Saturday with their 3rd string quarterback. They will need all hands on deck for their trip to take on South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits are a high octane offense that just came out of Fargo with a win over North Dakota State. Is the highly regarded Penguin defense up to the challenge?
    • Jacksonville State hasn’t been challenged for over a month. Eastern Kentucky has been tough in OVC play, even in their losses. Any chance the Colonels catch the Gamecocks looking ahead to their Homecoming game against Eastern Illinois?
    • Albany finds itself in a hole after losing two very close CAA matchups. Villanova got smacked around by Richmond last week. Both teams need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tough to pick a winner in this one.
    • Nicholls State is on a two game win streak and might be the Bearkats toughest challenge to date. Sam Houston State has run through their SLC slate undefeated with their closest game being a 13 point win. Can the Colonels slow down a potent SHSU offense?
    • Lamar has won three straight SLC games since falling to SHSU and Central Arkansas is undefeated since slipping to Samford in Week 1. Lamar most likely needs to win out to get an at-large bid as the 2nd place team in the Southland. Central Arkansas could still be in play for a seed with SHSU coming up on November 19th.
    • North Dakota State got shocked by South Dakota State with :01 left on the clock last weekend. Western Illinois has been in a tailspin since getting pounded in Brookings a few weeks ago. They needed late-game theatrics to beat Indiana State and Missouri State. I predict the Bison come out firing on all cylinders and put the game away early. WIU is still in the MVFC race, playoff hunt, and potentially the hunt for a seed if they can win out. It will be interesting to see who wants this more.
    • Weber State is a surprise team so far this season. They would have been ranked weeks ago if not for a 3 point loss in 2OTs to South Dakota. The next 2 weeks will tell us a lot about the Wildcats as they take on Southern Utah and North Dakota. Southern Utah is up against the wall after losing two Big Sky games in the last 3 weeks. They need to win out in Big Sky play or steal a win from BYU on November 12th for a shot at the playoffs.

 

*  American Sports Network (click the link to find local channels)