A weekend of stupidly close games and we are inching ever closer to deciding who wins the conference, who’s making themselves known to the playoff committee for at-large bids, and if anyone appears to be taking over Missouri State’s former “home” at the bottom of the conference standings. Without further ado, here’s where things stand as of this week (conference record listed first, then overall record):
South Dakota State – 3-0, 4-2
Youngstown State – 3-0, 5-1
North Dakota State – 2-1, 5-1
Western Illinois – 2-1, 5-1
South Dakota – 2-1, 3-3
Missouri State – 1-2, 3-3
Northern Iowa – 1-2, 2-4
Illinois State – 1-3, 3-4
Indiana State – 1-3, 3-4
Southern Illinois – 0-3, 2-4
Incredibly, there is a situation where the top four teams in the conference could all finish 9-2 overall. If, for example:
- SDSU wins the rest of their games
- NDSU loses to YSU and wins the rest of their games
- YSU loses to SDSU but beats NDSU and wins the rest
- WIU loses to NDSU and wins the rest
In that scenario, SDSU would win the conference championship at 8-0 in the MVFC, YSU would be second at 7-1, and NDSU and WIU would both be at 6-2, although NDSU would get the 3rd place nod due to head-to-head results. Some of those results aren’t entirely likely, but there is still a possibility that this is how it could go down.
The matchups for this Saturday are (all time listed in Central and all rankings from the AGS Weekly Poll):
#37T Missouri State at #35T Northern Iowa – 1 PM
#35T Illinois State at #24 South Dakota – 2 PM
Indiana State at Southern Illinois – 2 PM
#11 Youngstown State at #7T South Dakota State – 2 PM
#3 North Dakota State at #13 Western Illinois – 6 PM
All games available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com
#37T Missouri State at #35T Northern Iowa
Missouri State will be taking their 3-3 record (1-2 in the MVFC) up to Cedar Falls to take on the Northern Iowa Panthers, who find themselves sitting at 2-4 (also 1-2 in the MVFC). Missouri State lost a close one to Western Illinois last weekend in the Bears’ Homecoming game and Northern Iowa. Also, if there are any MSU Bears fans out there that were hoping that maybe their original starting QB Breck Ruddick would be back at some point this season, you can turn that “hope” into a “nope” with the recent news that his suspension will stand for the remainder of the season. The Northern Iowa defense spent the weekend hunting penguins in eastern Ohio, but to no avail, as the Panthers fell 14-10 to Youngstown State. I think the best news that Panther fans saw this weekend was former UNI standout David Johnson having a great game for the Arizona Cardinals.
The visiting Bears have been struggling offensively with the previously mentioned suspension of their starting QB as well as having their top WR Malik Earl sidelined with (I believe) a foot injury. I have not heard if he will be playing in this weekend’s game or not at this point. Missouri State’s strength this season is their (currently #29 in the FCS) defense…a big improvement over last year’s dead-last in the FCS finish for yards allowed per game. LBs Dylan Cole and McNeece Egbim have been leading the defense with 66 and 47 tackles respectively. Cole also has 5.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and 3 forced fumbles, while Egbim has 1 tackle for loss and 1 interception. Contributing strongly to the QB pressure front is DL Colby Isbell who has 25 tackles, but 10 of them are for losses (5.5 sacks) accounting for 53 yards. Isbell also has 4 QB hurries and a forced fumble. The Bears “bread and butter” this season has been turnovers…they’re 12th in the FCS for gained turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball, there have been some issues (mostly due to previously mentioned personnel absences), although they do have a few strengths. If WR Malik Earl is playing, then he’s the team’s top receiver, accounting for 68.2 yards per game and 2 TDs. WR Deion Holliman can be a threat at both the receiving position (33 yards per game and 3 TDs) and on kick returns (25.9 yards per return w/ 1 TD). The two top RBs for the Bears are averaging right around 50 yards per game.
The Panthers have had their own offensive difficulties lately, currently sitting at #93 in the FCS for total offense…primarily an issue with their passing game (106th). Their running game isn’t doing too badly, but most of that is due to the fact that QB Aaron Bailey would probably actually be better as a RB than as a QB. He currently averages 71 rushing yards per game and has 6 rushing TDs (that’s actually good enough for 3rd in the MVFC). Bailey averages 147 yards in the air per game and has 6 TDs (which makes him about the 9th or 10th best QB in the conference, depending on what you’re looking at specifically). Their other top RB is Tyvis Smith with 82.67 yards per game and 2 TDs. The top WR is Daurice Fountain with 39 yards per game (so that gives you an idea of how much and how effectively Bailey throws the ball). Like Missouri State, UNI’s real strength is their defense. The 18th best defense in the FCS boasts the #1 player in the country in both sacks and tackles for loss with DL Karter Schult who has 41 tackles, 14 for loss and 8.5 sacks, as well as 1 interception, 2 qb hurries, a forced fumble and a safety. The team tackles leader is actually (son of the HC) LB Jared Farley, who has 45, 2 for loss, and 1 interception. UNI overall is also very good at handling turnovers, with 14 gained and only 6 lost this season (overall that’s #6 in the FCS).
So, is this the year that MSU finally gets a win over UNI (it would be their first since 2005 and first in Cedar Falls since 1998)? Well, I don’t think UNI will put up a ton of points against a decent MSU defense (although not as good as YSU’s last weekend)…maybe 24ish. For Missouri State though, I don’t see them having a ton of luck against UNI’s very tough defense. Having Malik Earl back will help them quite a bit, if he’s ready to go, but I’d say something like 10 points is likely without him and maybe 17 points if he’s playing. At this point I’m going to go with the assumption that he is playing and base my prediction on that.
TL:DR – Northern Iowa by 7
#35T Illinois State at #24 South Dakota
The Redbirds got themselves back on the winning track with a close victory over Southern Illinois last weekend. It was their first conference win this season, so they’re 1-3 in the MVFC and 3-4 overall so far. South Dakota is doing a little better, I think, than most people expected them to, currently with a 2-1 conference record and 3-3 overall following their 2-OT victory against the other ISU (Sycamores) last weekend. Actually, I just realized that this is the second year in a row that a Bob Nielson-led MVFC team beat the Sycamores in OT in Terre Haute (last year’s WIU win over ISUb was essentially QB Sean McGuire’s “coming out” party).
Unlike a lot of MVFC QBs these days (or so it seems), ISU QB Jake Kolbe is pretty much your standard passing QB and not generally a running threat. He’s averaging 229.3 passing yards per game and has 10 TDs. The majority of that yardage goes to WR Anthony Warrum, who averages 86 yards per game and has 4 of those TDs. For the first part of the season, the Redbird’s primary RB was George Moreira, who was averaging just under 60 yards a game rushing, although it looks like he was injured in their game at NDSU a couple of weeks ago (sounds like broken collarbone, done for season)…luckily for ISU, RB James Robinson has picked up some of the slack, running for an average of 112.5 yards per game over the last two games and has 1 TD. Robinson also handles kick return duties, averaging 21.2 yards per return. Safety Alec Kocour leads a defense that is 18th in the FCS against the pass, with 58 total tackles, 1 for loss, 1 interception and 3 QB hurries. LB Alejandro Rivera also gets in on the action with 55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception (returned for 27 yards) and 2 forced fumbles). Getting pressure on the QB is a bit part of LB B.J. Bello’s gameplan, with 7.5 tackles for loss including 5 sacks (out of 49 total tackles) and also has 6 QB hurries and 2 forced fumbles. Another thing to note about the Redbirds is that they are not very likely to shoot themselves in the foot with penalties…being the 12th best in the FCS (#1 in the conference) at having the fewest penalties per game.
Remember that I said it seems like most of the MVFC have very mobile QBs that are almost RBs who throw the ball (except UNI QB Bailey…he’s a RB who really shouldn’t throw the ball)…South Dakota fits that mold pretty closely. QB Chris Streveler averages 158.2 yards per game through the air and has 14 passing TDs. He also is #2 on the team in rushing yards with 79.8 per game and 5 TDs. The primary RB is Trevor Bouma, who picks up 83.8 yards per game and has 3 TDs, as well as being the primary receiving target (in terms of # of catches, with 13) although it looks like it’s mostly short pass stuff, since he only gets 6.6 yards per catch. The actual team yardage leader for receiving is WR Alonge Brooks who has 38 yards per game and 2 TDs. Defensively, LB Jet Moreland is the team’s top tackler with 54 on the season including 2 for loss. DL Colin Mertlik is the sack leader with 5 for 26 yards as well as 2 qb hurries and 1 forced fumble. But the big story for the Coyotes is their kicking game. Kicker/Punter Miles Bergner is averaging 45.8 yards per punt, second in the FCS, which in and of itself would be pretty solid, but he’s also their FG kicker and up until last week, was a perfect 6 for 6 on FGs. He did miss a 40-yarder last week, but he’s hit from 50 yards out, 4 of 5 in the 40 range, 4 for 4 in the 30 range and 1 for 1 from the 20s…and perfect 24 for 24 at PAT’s. Not surprisingly, he leads the team in scoring with 54 points.
In general, I think that the teams are fairly evenly matched on the ground. USD has a better rushing offense, but ISU has a halfway decent rushing defense. In the air, though, ISU has the advantage, with a much better passing game going against USD’s not so great pass defense. USD is better at special teams and while I think that will make a difference in this game, I think ISU has a little bit of an edge overall. I feel like once or twice, we’ll see an ISU passing TD traded for a USD FG and that will give ISU enough of a boost to come away with a close win.
TL:DR – Illinois State by 3
Indiana State at Southern Illinois
The only two teams in the conference who aren’t listed anywhere on the AGS poll go head to head to see who’s really the conference’s “cellar dweller” at the midpoint of the conference season. Indiana State heads down to Carbondale sitting at 1-3 in the conference and 3-4 overall after losing by a FG at home to South Dakota last weekend, and Southern Illinois returns home after losing to Illinois state by a FG last weekend to put them at 0-3 in the conference and 2-4 overall. It’s a unique mascot showdown in the “barn burner for the basement”, as the Sycamores take on the Salukis.
ISU QB Isaac Harker has had a pretty good amount of success so far this season, picking up 285.9 yards per game and 15 total TDs. His 2,001 total passing yards is good enough for 5th in the FCS and #1 in the MVFC (the two ISUs have played one more game than everyone else in the conference though), and he’s 9th in passing yards per game in the FCS. His main passing targets are WRs Robert Tonyan (72.4 ypg, 7 TDs) and Miles Thompson (68.8 ypg, 5 TDs). It sounds like WR Robert Pugh will likely be back as well after sitting out the last couple of games with an injury. Pugh had been picking up 61.5 yards per game in receiving and also handled kick return duties averaging 23.8 yards per return prior to his injury. RB Roland Genesy leads the team with 67.6 yards per game and 6 rushing TDs. Defensively, LB Jameer Thurman is on top with 57 tackles, 9 for loss (1 sack), as well as 1 interception and 2 fumble recoveries. DL Conlan Cassidy has 44 tackles w/ 6 for loss and is the team’s sack leader with 3.5. Cassidy also has 4 qb hurries and 1 fumble recovery.
For the Salukis, they also have a pretty good passing QB in senior transfer Josh Straughan who has 308.67 yards per game and 13 TDs. Overall, SIU has the 7th best passing offense in the FCS. SIU has three receivers who all average over 50 yards per game, with WRs Connor Iwema (65.7 ypg, 3 TDs), Jimmy Jones (54.7 ypg, 2 TDs), and Darrell James (54.2 ypg, 2 TDs). WR Billy Reed is also a frequent target with 47.6 ypg and 3 TDs. RB Daquan Isom gets the majority of the carries with a 61 ypg average and 1 rushing TD, although RB Jonathan Mixon gets called on frequently in short yardage situations (like goal line) with only a 17 ypg average, but leading the team in rushing TDs with 4. LB Chase Allen is the defensive leader in tackles with 39, as well as 3.5 for loss, 7 qb hurries, a forced fumble, and a blocked kick.. DE Deondre Barnett also gets pressure on the QB frequently with 4 sacks for 26 yards, 4 QB hurries, and 3 forced fumbles.
So, SIU has a good passing game that really spreads the ball around…they don’t have one big standout receiver like WIU’s Lance Lenoir for example, but they have 4 guys who are all pretty solid and are all in the top 15 in the conference in receiving yards per game, which can make it kinda hard to defend when they’ve got 3-4 of them on the field at one time. Because of this, they have the 7th best passing offense in the FCS. ISU also has a good passing offense (15th in the FCS), but both teams are below 100th place for passing defense. The ground game appears to be fairly evenly matched for both teams though, so I’d expect a fairly high-scoring, pass-heavy game. I think SIU has a little bit of an advantage in the passing game, plus with them playing at home and on Homecoming, I think this gives the edge to SIU by about a TD…specifically a TD pass to one of the four previously mentioned receivers.
TL:DR – Southern Illinois by 7
#11 Youngstown State at #7T South Dakota State
At the same time as the ISU/SIU “Battle for the Bottom”, we’ll also have Youngstown State and South Dakota State fighting it out to see who is the conference “top dog” at this point in the season. Youngstown State comes in at 3-0 in the MVFC and 5-1 overall following a defensive battle with UNI that resulted in a 4-point Penguin win. South Dakota State is headed back to Brookings with the Dakota Marker trophy/brick after having defeated North Dakota State by 2 points in the Fargodome last weekend and are also at the top of the conference standings at 3-0 and with an overall record of 4-2. Will the Jackrabbits have a letdown from last week’s emotional victory? Will the oppressive Penguin defense be able to stop the offensive firepower that SDSU can bring to bear? Should be an exciting game no matter which way it goes.
Youngstown State has had some problems offensively, most notably with injuries at the QB position. At one point in last week’s game, they were playing essentially their 4th string QB. Their #2 (or maybe he’s #1, I’m kinda unsure at this point) QB, Ricky Davis, had a minor injury and was knocked out of the game, but it sounds like he will be starting this weekend’s game. The original #1 QB Hunter Wells (the starter for the previous year or two) is sitting this season and will likely transfer at the end of the season. The #3 QB on the roster, Trent Hosick, had his season and possibly football career ended after having a broken collarbone. QB #4, Nathan Mays, got into the game against UNI, but didn’t have a great deal of success (although they did win the game, so it’s not like he screwed everything up or anything). It sounds like Davis will start and Mays will be backup, which, if Davis is healthy, is a good thing for YSU. Davis is a decent runner for a QB, picking up 59 yards a game on the ground and throwing for 149.8 yards per game with 5 TDs. Beyond the QB position, the offense mainly revolves around RB Martin Ruiz who’s putting up 82.3 yards per game and has 7 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD. Receivers are mostly used for short throws, picking up first downs, getting into the end zone…that kind of stuff. Every receiver has less than 30 yards per game, although a couple of them (WRs Alvin Bailey and Darien Townsend) have a couple of TDs each.
The real strength of YSU is their dominating (5th in the FCS in yards per game) defense. The Penguins have the best pair of DE’s in the conference, possibly the entire FCS, with Avery Moss (27 tackles, 6.5 for loss of 38 yards, 5 qb hurries, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery) and Derek Rivers (19 tackles, 9 for loss for 49 yards…including 8 sacks, 10 qb hurries and a fumble recovery). Their team tackles leader is the talented LB Armand Dellovade (35 tackles, 4 for loss, 2 qb hurries), which all together helps explain why they have the 9th best run defense. Their DBs are pretty decent as well (14th in the FCS in passing yards allowed, #1 in the MVFC).
South Dakota State has a blistering offense that really has been held in check only once this season, last weekend at North Dakota State (and they still pulled out the win). They’re averaging 40.7 points per game due to some stellar play by “top 5 in the FCS” QB Taryn Christion (323.2 yards per game, 22 TDs, 2 interceptions), another “top 5 in the FCS WR in Jake Wieneke (117.2 yards per game, 11 TDs) and the best TE you will find at the FCS level (hell, you’d have a hard time finding a better one at any level of college football), Dallas Goedert (118.5 yards per game, 9 TDs). They don’t do a ton with the running game, preferring to mostly use short passes to move the ball, so their top RBs, Brady Mengarelli and Isaac Wallace, only get about 46 yards per game and Wallace is the only one with a TD. Defensively, Redshirt Freshman LB Christian Rozeboom has been making a lot of noise with 66 total tackles, good for 7th in the FCS (and the only freshman in the top 90 of that list), as well as 2.5 sacks, a 37-yard pick-6, a forced fumble and has twice received the conference Newcomer of the Week award. Additionally, LB Jesse Bobbit has contributed 52 tackles and 1 interception. In general, good offensive teams have put up quite a few points on the Jackrabbits (averaging 32.5 points per game), but they do seem to be doing mostly better the last few games, averaging 23.3 points per game against three teams who are all in the top half of the FCS in scoring.
So, in general, Youngstown State does really well against teams that like to run the ball, and good but not stellar against teams that like to pass the ball. SDSU passes…a lot…on the level of practically nobody else in the FCS outside of Cheney, WA. I think if the Jackrabbits can get their big receivers out beyond YSU’s front line, they can find the ball enough to be successful…won’t be easy, but they can get it done. When YSU is on offense and assuming Davis is something close to 100%, they’re going to try to run the ball quite a bit, which, if the SDSU LBs are having a good day, won’t work all that well. I think that if Davis isn’t 100% or gets knocked out of the game fairly early and Mays goes in to play, SDSU is likely to win by a couple of TDs. If Davis does play and is near full-strength, I think it’s a much closer battle, but SDSU still has the advantage.
TL:DR – South Dakota State by 6
#3 North Dakota State at #13 Western Illinois
And finally, we have the late game (all the others start at 1 or 2 PM, but this one doesn’t start until 6 PM), which, while not quite as big as the YSU at SDSU game in terms of who might win the conference championship, is still pretty huge for considerations like playoff seeding and determining where these two programs are at right now. A lot of eyes will be on this game to see if the Bison’s loss last weekend was just their “one loss per year” en route to another championship or if it was a sign of slipping a little from being the completely dominant team we’ve seen over the last half-decade. People will also be interested to see if Western is the “real deal” and ready to take the next step upwards. It’s been quite a while since WIU has been in consideration for most people’s top 10 rankings…a win this weekend would likely do it…but can the Leathernecks put together a complete game of playing like they have the ability to and make it happen?
The visiting Bison are coming off an emotional loss to South Dakota State last weekend and are currently at 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the conference. Led by QB Easton Stick, the Bison seem to mostly be a “run first” offense. Stick passes for 188.8 yards per game and has 9 TDs, but he can run the ball well too, rushing for just under 40 yards per game and 3 TDs. They also hand the ball off to their pair of talented RBs King Frazier (77.3 ypg, 5 TDs) and Lance Dunn (56.7 ypg, 2 TDs). That isn’t to say that they don’t pass, because they do have two WRs both averaging between 50 and 54 receiving yards per game: Darrius Shepherd, who has 3 receiving TDs, and RJ Urzendowski, who has 2. Defensively, SS Robbie Grimsley has been making his presence known with 47 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble. LBs MJ Stumpf and Pierre Gee-Tucker also get in on the action with 37 tackles, 1 sack, and an interception (for Stumpf) and 32 tackles, 2 sacks, and a fumble recovery (for G-T).
The Leathernecks had their own close game (really, everyone in the conference did), at Missouri State last weekend, where, for the second game in a row (and third time this season), WIU snached victory from the jaws of defeat, this time coming back with a TD in the last minute (after giving up a 17-point lead) to win. The victory gave them an identical 5-1 overall, 2-1 in MVFC record. Western has a potent offense (not on the level of SDSU, but still good) headlined by the 3rd best WR in the FCS (in yards per game with 126.5), Lance Lenoir. Lenoir had already equalled or surpassed most WIU career receiving records even before the start of this season, so by most metrics, Lenoir is the best WR in WIU history. The other primary WR, Joey Borsellino is averaging 54.7 yards per game and has 1 TD. QB Sean McGuire is a semi-mobile QB, passing for 259.8 yards per game and 10 TDs while rushing for around 15 yards per game and 3 TDs (he’s really good at the QB keeper to pick up one yard when they really need it). Primary RB Steve McShane gets the vast majority of carries, and puts up 108.3 yards per game with 7 TDs and transfer RB Jamie Gilmore has also started to get a decent number of carries, getting the ball 12 times for 42 yards and 2 TDs last week against Missouri State. The Leathernecks defense is led by LB Brett Taylor. The Macomb native has accounted for 61 tackles including 2.5 sacks and 1 interception. LB Quentin Moon has also stepped up this year, putting up 50 tackles with 1 sack, 1 interception, 4 QB hurries, and 1 blocked kick.
Obviously the Bison are an all-around really good team and don’t have a ton of weaknesses. One that SDSU and EWU were able to exploit is their vulnerability to the passing game, which is WIU’s strength. Not sure if it’ll be good enough to put up a good number of points against NDSU, but as I said, it is one of the better ones in the conference. If the Leathernecks want to win this game though, they’ll need to put together a complete game of playing to the best of their ability. Their problem lately is that they just haven’t been consistent. Western will get ahead usually and then often lets teams back in the game in the second half. I don’t know if that’s just them getting tired or complacent with their lead and the letting things slip, or if it’s just a lack of focus, but they do seem to generally have problems in the later stages of the game. They’ve been lucky that in those close “comeback” games, the defense has been able to step up and make some huge stops to save the game, but they won’t always be able to do that.
A couple of interesting stats to look at for this game: NDSU has always prided themselves on their Time of Possession advantage, and they are good…currently 9th in the FCS with an average of 33:27. WIU…currently 4th with an average of 34:36. Obviously something is going to give, both teams can’t have the ball for 33+ minutes in a 60 minute game. Also, Red Zone Defense…the strength of both of the teams on defense is their short game…D-line and LBs mostly. What this means is that when offenses get down into the red zone, the defense is often able to step up and make a stop. NDSU is the 12th best FCS team in this stat…WIU is the 13th….so maybe we’re in for a decent amount of yardage, but few points.
Another thing to consider is that, for some reason, NDSU seems to have difficulties in Macomb. They haven’t ever lost here (in case you didn’t know, I’m a Leatherneck fan who lives in Macomb, so for me, “there” would be “here”), but the last time they played here, it took a 4th quarter comeback of a couple of TDs by a combination of Carson Wentz and John Crockett to win by 7. Will their struggles at Hanson Field continue? That’s hard to say, but personally, I think that NDSU comes in angry about the loss and has some success offensively against the Leathernecks. I think that Western is too good not to score at all (or minimally), but I could see NDSU winning by a TD or so. If Western wins it’ll be on the strength of the passing offense and the ability of the D-line to step up and make stops when they need to. As much as I’d love to pick Western to win (my heart says Leathernecks ❤️ )…I know that NDSU has the advantage at this point (my head says Bison). Probably something in the range of a 28-21 NDSU win is what I think we’re likely to see…but of course, those of you who know me know that I bleed purple and gold (maybe I need to get that checked by a doctor) and I would absolutely love to be proven wrong on this. I’ll take a Leatherneck win over a tough opponent over a correct pick any day.
TL:DR – North Dakota State by 7
