The FCS Wedge

2016 MVFC Preview: North Dakota State

2015: 13-2 (7-1): Shared MVFC Championship, National Championship

Key Returnees: Everyone

Key Losses: All of them and none of them

Is there anything left to be said about the Bison at this point? I mean, seriously? Five straight NCAA titles. Five straight MVFC titles, though I feel obliged to point out that only two of them are outright titles for some reason. Two head coaches during that time and zero drop off between the two. All Americans and NFL draft picks come and go and then come around again. Starting to write this I put what I did for the returnees and losses as a joke, but the more I thought about it and the further I got into the preview the more I realized I had to leave it that way. I know what you’re thinking, “Great, as if we don’t get enough Bizun bragging on the boards”. Well, yeah, kinda. When you do what NDSU has done it comes with the territory. Maybe we find a weak spot in this…maybe.

Let’s start with a quick look at the quarterback spot, where the Bison just lost Carson Wentz to the Eagles with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft. Losing that type of quarterback would mean instant drop off, but Easton Stick got significant playing time last season while Carson healed up a broken wrist. Stick appeared in 11 games, started 8 (more than Wentz), and completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,144 yards with 13 TD and just 4 INT. It’s clear Stick has talent, but what will be interesting to watch is how he looks using the “full play book”. Watching NDSU last year, and looking at his averages per game, it was pretty clear NDSU’s staff knew they didn’t have to expose him to the more indepth portions of the playbook and knew he could rely on the rest of the roster to “carry” him. There is more than enough returning to “protect” Stick if need be. I see a ton of talent, but I want to see how he looks as the guy.

It’s not like Stick will have to carry the team on his own. We all know NDSU is known for their ground game and it typically it involves a herd *nudge nudge* backs splitting the carries. This year’s stable of backs is, essentially, the same as last year just with a year of experience. King Fraizer returns for his seniors season on the back of 1,158 yard and 11 touchdown season. The problem for opposing defenses is King is just the start of the onslaught. Coming behind him is Bruce Anderson (90-503-2), Lance Dunn (95-468-3), Chase Morlock (95-354-5), and then even Stick gets involved (85-498-5). Yup, that’s roughly 500 carries for just under 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns coming back from the dominant rushing game.

The place that defenses have a chance to make strides in slowing the NDSU offense down is through the passing game. I’ve already covered that Stick wasn’t asked to make a ton of plays through the air and him doing so this year would be key, well, the one place NDSU seems to actually have been hit is at WR. Yes, guys like RJ Urzendowski (48-669-6) and Darrius Shepherd (40-575-5) are back, but there is a drop after that. Yes, i realize that “statistically” most of the receptions are back. What I think is key is the loss of Zach Vraa (40-510-5). No, he didn’t have the best stats but if you watched NDSU the last 4 years you know who he is. You know how important he was to Wentz, and Stick. Any time a play was needed it was Vraa that got his number called 90+% of the time. NDSU relies so heavily on the run game that I don’t expect much issue here, but it will be interesting to see play out.

Defensively does it really matter who they lost? To a larger extent than the offense it’s not about who the players on defense are, though it helps to have the talent that NDSU has had. The system NDSU has in place, thanks to Coach Klieman, will put anyone in position to succeed. It helps to have all but one of your top 10 defenders back when it comes to tackles, including Nick DeLuca who has been put on the preseason Butkus Award Watch List. There could be a hole in the armor early in the year, and potentially later depending on development, with the back corners. There is, essentially, no “real” retuning experience at corner. There are guys who saw time in clean up duty, but not much by way of full time experience. That may put added pressure on the safety duo of Robbie Grimsley and Tre Dempsey. If they are forced into coverage help it could open up seams for slot guys to get into, or force them to play off the line a bit more and open up a bit of space for a running back.

Prediction time:

8/27 Charleston Southern – W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 Eastern Washington – W 2-0 (0-0)

9/17 @ Iowa – L 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 Illinois State – W 3-1 (1-0)

10/8 @ Missouri State – W 4-1 (2-0)

10/15 South Dakota State – W 5-1 (3-0)

10/22 @ Western Illinois – W 6-1 (4-0)

10/29 @ Northern Iowa – L 6-2 (4-1)

11/5 Youngstown State – W 7-2 (5-1)

11/12 Indiana State – W 8-2 (6-1)

11/19 @ South Dakota – W 9-2 (7-1)

NDSU losing two regular season games? I must be high, right? Maybe. The Iowa/NDSU game is a lose/lose and win/win for me either way. One way someone is going to get another reason to slam UNI while the other is going to get knocked down a bit. I hope for a massive outbreak of the flu and the game is canceled. EWU is intriguing to me. There’s no way EWU stops NDSU, but that passing attack against new corners in week 2 after play a triple option team in week 1 could pose some issues. After that I see “smooth” sailing outside of the UNI game in the UNIDome. Call me a homer but I think UNI takes the conference this year, simply because they get NDSU in the UNIDome. We saw two years ago what a UNI team that has an identity can do, even in the two losses last year it was really only UNI that pushed NDSU. Sorry USD, I’m poo pooing your win because it came the week after UNI/NDSU’s blood bath…lightning in a bottle so to speak. Maybe NDSU slips again against a USD level team again. Wouldn’t be the first – USD in ‘15, Indiana State in ‘12, YSU in ‘11 and MSU in ‘10.

The only thing left to ponder is if there is a need to start sizing fingers on the other hand. I see no reason there couldn’t be. I only see one or two teams standing in the way of NDSU, one of them just so happens to be in the conference and likely same side of the bracket with the way the playoffs tend to shake out.

2016 Big Sky Preview: Cal Poly Mustangs

2015 Record: 4-7 (3-5)

Key Returners: Joe Protheroe, Kori Garcia, Kyle Lewis, Khaleel Jenkins

Key Losses: Willie Tucker, Stephen Pyle, Kaulin Blair, Chris Brown

The Cal Poly Mustangs finished 4-7 last year despite having the country’s leading rushing offense. Last season they checked in with 387 yards per game, 40 yards more than the next nearest team, The Citadel. The Mustangs will undoubtedly miss the production from quarterback Chris Brown, however, they return two of their offensive backfield in Kori Garcia and Joe Protheroe. The Mustangs, led by head coach Tim Walsh, in his eighth season, will look to rebound from a disappointing season in the win/loss column. Walsh has had a good amount of success since arriving at Cal Poly, piling up a 43-37 record while with the Mustangs.

The combination of the two returning running backs checked in with 1559 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. With that kind of combo returning you have to think that Cal Poly will be in the hunt again next season for the rushing title. Hard to tell of either will be in the hunt for the individual rushing title in the Big Sky considering how many ways the ball is split between ball carriers in their triple option based offense. The Mustangs will be breaking in a new quarterback this season to lead their multi-headed triple option rushing attack.

One reason you could say the Mustangs struggled last season was their defense, which ranked 112^th out of 123 FCS teams. They gave up 6.4 yards per play and 457 yards per game. The combination of those two things don’t typically add up to success, and a reason why the Mustangs finished with four wins. However, on offense the Mustangs were a relatively good team, finishing with 478 yards per game. That was good enough for eighth in the country, tied with fellow Big Sky team Eastern Washington. While the Mustangs did a lot of damage on the ground and controlled football games they were prone to getting hammered on the defensive side of the ball. The Mustangs finished +3 in the touchdown category last season.

The Mustangs are picked to finish ninth this coming season and I’d say that’s going to be accurate if they cannot improve their defense. Their schedule sets them up for, in theory, five wins but that’s going to be dependent on the offense keeping the defense off the field. The schedule for the Mustangs isn’t going to be easy. They will start their season at Nevada then host Montana and travel to South Dakota State. They’ll also be at North Dakota and Portland State, and also host Eastern Washington. Difficult schedule for this team, they have a lot of work to do to get to .500. Tim Walsh will probably get a bye if the Mustangs really struggle but you have to think that this trend cannot continue for much longer.

9/2    at Nevada
9/10    vs. San Diego
9/17    at South Dakota State
9/24    vs. Montana
10/1    at North Dakota
10/15    at Portland State
10/22    vs. UC Davis
10/29    at Sacramento State
11/5    vs. Eastern Washington
11/12    at Weber State
11/19    vs. Northern Colorado

2016 MVFC Preview: Missouri State

2015 Record: 1-10 (0-8)

Key Returnees: RB Calan Crowder, RB Jason Randall, WR Malik Earl, LB Dylan Cole

Key Losses: WR Eric Christophel, LB Christian Hoffmann

By the end of the 2015 season I actually started to feel a tad bit bad for the Bears. In Dave Steckel’s first season the Bears broke just about every MVFC record…that you wouldn’t want to break. Steckel came to Springfield known for his defensive genius. His Missouri Tigers consistently had a top 10 ranked FBS defense playing in the SEC. That success didn’t make the three hour trip from Columbia. The Bears defense gave up 48.6 points per game, 548.9 yards per game, 6.2 yards per carry, and allowed a 53% conversion rate on 3rd down. The Bears offense? It wasn’t any better. Over the final 6 weeks of the season the Bears offense scored just 19 total points and was shut out 3 times, but scored just 7 of those 19 points with the rest coming by way of special teams and a safety. The lone bright spot for the Bears was Deion Holliman who shattered every return record at MSU, thanks in large part to how often he was on the field returning kick offs.

This isn’t a “let’s break down all of the issues that plagued MSU” last year post though. This is a “Does it get better this year?” post. Well, it depends on how you view it. The reality is, it can’t get much worse than last year, if at all, and the good news is nearly everyone from last year returns with a year of experience on the field and in Steckel’s system. The bad news? This year’s Bears team is, essentially, the same team that took the field last season.

Offensively they have two running backs that have shown the ability to move the ball. Calan Crowder is the name most outside of Springfield will know. As a freshman he finished 9th in the conference in rushing with 766 yards after really only seeing time the final 6 games of the season. Last year, for a variety of reasons, he saw his carries drop to just 80 and his average per carry dipped to 3.2 yards. Crowder is paired with Jason Randal (90 carries 379 yards) in the back field. The quarterback position is a tad unsettled. Both Brodie Lambert (103 completions 776 yards 3 TD) and Breck Ruddick (52 completions 382 yards 2 TD) return. Ruddick started the season, but lost the position to Lambert as the season wore on. I would expect Lambert to start the year, but I don’t expect much from either QB. The receiving corps, like the rest of the offense, leaves much to be desired. Malik Earl (31 catches 352 yards 2 TD) is the leader of that group. He was the only receiver with more than 17 catches last year that’s returning.

The defense is lead by Dylan Cole. Last season he recorded 152 total tackles, which led the MVFC, on his way to earning First Team All MVFC. In conference play he averaged 15.4 tackles per game and logged 9 double digit tackle games, including the final seven games. After Cole the defense will be anchored by safety, Jared Beshore. As a freshman Beshore totaled 70 tackles, which was third most last season, including 43 solo stops. I don’t want to spin Beshore’s stellar performance into a negative, but when your free safety is totaling 70 tackles while not grabbing an interception things aren’t going well. The Bears do return leading sacker, Colby Isbell, though he had just 4.5 of them. The rest of the defense that returns will need to take significant steps if they don’t want to repeat the numbers from last year. Guys like Tre Betts, Anthony Upchurch, Alexz Jones and Kurran Blamey need to provide Cole and Beshore with some help. If they don’t, it’s going to be another long season.

Here’s how I see the schedule breaking down for MSU:

9/1 Southwestern College (Kan) (non D-1) W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 @ Murray State – L 1-1 (0-1)

9/24 @ Kansas State – L 1-2 (0-0)

10/1 @ Indiana State – L 1-3 (0-1)

10/8 North Dakota State – L 1-4 (0-2)

10/15 Western Illinois – L 1-5 (0-3)

10/22 @ Northern Iowa – L 1-6 (0-4)

10/29 Southern Illinois – L 1-7 (0-5)

11/5 @ South Dakota State – L 1-8 (0-6)

11/12 @ Illinois State – L 1-9 (0-7)

11/19 Youngstown State – L 1-10 (0-8)

I’m not sold on the Bears beating Southwestern College. Their D2 game against Chadron State last season was a 21-13 win that was less than impressive. They may pull off a game they shouldn’t this year, but I’m not sure where the win comes from. My best guess is Murray State, but outside of that I can’t imagine a D1 win this year either. I’d love to say it can’t get any worse than last year, but I didn’t think any MVFC could be as bad as the Bears were last year at that time.

2016 Big Sky Conference Preview

The fall football season is nearly upon us, and even though it’s still summer and fall camp hasn’t yet begun that doesn’t mean we can’t talk some football!

The Big Sky Conference just held their media days in Utah and they released their preseason poll. Here’s what the media had to say about this year’s preseason rankings:

Northern Arizona
Montana
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Portland State
Weber State
Southern Utah
Montana State
Cal Poly
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
UC Davis
Sacramento State

The preseason players of the year are Cooper Kupp from Eastern Washington and Caleb Kidder from Montana.

Judging by the rankings above the media seems to think that Case Cookus is primed for a pretty big season, plus playing their games with an advantage at 7000 feet seems to help too.

Montana, under second year head coach Bob Stitt, appears to be in the hunt for a Big Sky Championship again this year as well. Last year’s champion, Southern Utah, was picked to be in the middle of the pack, as well as last year’s runner-up, Portland State. It should be noted that Southern Utah had the most players named to the Big Sky preseason all-conference team.

One reason for Southern Utah’s drop could be due to the fact that their schedule this year sets up to be much tougher than last year with having both BYU and Utah on their schedule, plus having to play Montana, Montana State, and Northern Arizona. They also lose their quarterback, Ammon Olsen, who had a terrific 2015 season for the Thunderbirds. They do return their top running back Malik Brown, and top receiver Mike Sharp.

The case for Northern Arizona at the top isn’t too hard to see. Case Cookus is a pretty big deal in Flagstaff and should easily be in contention for player of the year come end of the season (along with Cooper Kupp) barring any kind of injury. The amazing thing about Cookus is that he’s only going to be a sophomore. Cookus’s favorite target will also be back, Emmanuel Butler. Butler was a third team FCS All-American last year for the Lumberjacks.

The Lumberjacks finished at 7-4 last season. Their best wins coming over Stephen F Austin and Eastern Washington. This year’s schedule shouldn’t prove to be too difficult. They open at Arizona State, then travel to Western Illinois, then a pair of home contests with Eastern Washington and New Mexico Highlands. They also have Montana at home. If they can clear a few hurdles they can win the conference. The showdown with Montana in late October might be the game of the year in the Big Sky.

An interesting pick here is Northern Colorado near the bottom of the conference standings. Last year the Bears finished at 6-5. The media seems to think the Bears may have peaked last year and will regress this year. Given UNC’s history I can’t say that’s too big of a surprise. Were the Bears a one year wonder, comparatively to the rest of their Big Sky history? The Bears return their leading rusher, passer, and receiver, as well as two of their top sack leaders from last year. Their schedule is basically a buzz saw of the Big Sky’s best, plus a trip to Fort Collins to play the Rams. The media might be right here.

There are realistically four teams that could claim stake to the conference title this season. Those being Montana, Portland State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona. North Dakota could be a dark horse in there as their schedule sets up for them nicely, much like Southern Utah last season.

For my personal hot takes on the Big Sky this season I don’t know if I can buy the hype on Northern Arizona yet. They return some terrific offensive weapons, but like many Big Sky teams, their defense is god awful. While that might be nice enough to win the league, it will also mean getting housed in the playoffs. Eastern Washington will continue to do what they do, score a lot of points and hope they can outscore the team on the other side of the field. An interesting strategy. It would be an interesting experiment if Eastern attempted to play some defense. If that was the case they could be a playoff noise maker.

I would like to think that Montana has a legitimate shot at winning the conference but they will be replacing the majority of their defense and look like they will be without starting corner JR Nelson for the first six games due to suspension. Bob Stitt will need to figure out how to keep the offense going into a power outage when facing tougher defenses, as we saw against Weber State and the second game against North Dakota State.

Portland State seems like a good candidate to win the Big Sky, in my opinion. The Vikings have a schedule that will set them up for success, they return many pieces from last season, and Bruce Barnum seems to have them trending very high upwards. They might be the most balanced team in the conference. They will need to win one of their two FBS games to get into the seeding of the playoffs.

Sorry, I don’t buy the hype on North Dakota, despite having a very good running back in John Santiago. They will need to do many other things well to win this thing. They still have to win the games on their schedule.

Since you’re all dying to know, here’s how I see the conference shaking out:

1. Portland State
2. Montana
3. Eastern Washington
4. Northern Arizona
5. Weber State
6. North Dakota
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana State
9. Northern Colorado
10. Cal Poly
11. Idaho State
12. Sacramento State
13. UC-Davis

Over the next two or three weeks I’ll be previewing each Big Sky team individually. After you read the individual previews the above will probably make more sense, but until then I’m just going to leave you guys in suspense, just like a skinnier George R.R. Martin.

AGS Poll: 2016 Preseason Top 25

Rank	Team:	Total Points	First Place Votes	Previous Wk.
1	North Dakota State Bison	2047	79	–
2	Northern Iowa Panthers	1836	1	–
3	Richmond Spiders	1789		–
4	Jacksonville State Gamecocks	1775	1	–
5	Sam Houston State Bearkats	1731	1	–
6	Chattanooga Mocs	1438		–
7	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	1436		–
8	Charleston Southern Buccaneers	1369		–
9	James Madison Dukes	1164		–
10	William & Mary Tribe	1154		–
11	Montana Grizzlies	1120		–
12	Illinois State Redbirds	1112		–
13	The Citadel Bulldogs	916		–
14	McNeese State Cowboys	893		–
15	Portland State Vikings	892		–
16	Eastern Washington Eagles	637		–
17	Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	580		–
18	North Dakota Fighting Hawks	511		–
19	Western Illinois Leathernecks	472		–
20	Colgate Raiders	456		–
21	Youngstown State Penguins	390		–
22	Villanova Wildcats	374		–
23	New Hampshire Wildcats	292		–
24	Towson Tigers	284		–
25	Fordham Rams	261		–

Rank	Team	Total Points	First Place Votes	Last Week
26	Southern Utah Thunderbirds	247		–
27	Harvard Crimson	215		–
28	Eastern Kentucky Colonels	206		–
29	Samford Bulldogs	139		–
30	Liberty Flames	136		–
31	Eastern Illinois Panthers	125		–
32	North Carolina A&T Aggies	77		–
33	Western Carolina Catamounts	59		–
34	Dartmouth Big Green	53		–
35	Montana State Bobcats	48		–
36	South Carolina State Bulldogs	47		–
37	Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks	40		–
38	Central Arkansas Bears	38		–
39	Cal Poly Mustangs	29		–
40	Bethune-Cookman Wildcats	27		–

2016 Patriot League Preview: Bucknell

*Thank you to the Patriot League posters on AGS who helped put this together

2015 Results: 4-7 (1-5)
Returning starters:

Offense – 8

Defense – 10

Oct 17, 2015; West Point, NY, USA; Bucknell Bison quarterback R.J. Nitti (6) drops back to pass against the Army Black Knights during the second half at Michie Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Bucknell is a team defined by its defense which will need to find ways to score points and the man charged with that is quarterback R.J. Nitti. Nitti returns for his 3rd year as the starting quarterback and is coming off a year with 2,477 passing yards with 13 touchdowns but a concerning 10 interceptions. He operates behind a veteran OL anchored by Preseason All-American lineman Julien Davenport. The healthy return of running back C.J. Williams should help Nitti to improve upon his TD:INT by forcing the secondary to respect play action and giving the receiving corps room against defenders. That receiving corps is led by an an explosive WR/KR in Will Carter, who can be a game changer with the ball in his hand. Last season Carter finished the year with 60 catches, which is fourth most in single season history for the Bison, for 655 yards. One issue for Coach Susan to get righted this season is getting this group to finish drives with scores, which is something the Bison struggled with last season as they converted just 61% of their red zone possessions into points. Most concerning from that stat is the fact that just 45% of their trips into the red zone ended in a touchdown.

Once again, the defense will be the star of the team. Last season the defense led the Patriot League in points per game given up last season at just 18.7 (though the offense scored just 15.6 per game) and yards per game given up with 338 (again, the offense was behind at just 325 yards per game). The defensive line will be led by Ben Schumaker, who finished last season with 13.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks, and Abdullah Anderson and his 8 TFL and 4.5 sacks. The linebacking corps is led by the team’s leading tackler, and All Patriot performer, Mark Pyles. Last season Park finished with 95 tackles, 7.5 TFL and a pair of sacks. Joining park in the second level of the defense is the team’s second leading tackler from last season, Ben Richard who was also an All Patriot performer with 79 tackles and 8.5 TFL. The secondary will be led by Bryan Marine (4 INT, 53 tackles) and Connor Golden (60 tackles). There are other pieces in the secondary that saw a decent amount of playing time last season, but they will need to up their game to help take the defense to another level.

2016 Schedule

9/3 @ Marist

9/10 @ Duquense

9/17 Cornell

9/24 VMI

10/8 @ Holy Cross

10/15 Colgate

10/22 Lafayette

10/29 @ Charleston Southern

10/5 @ Lehigh

11/12 @ Georgetown

11/19 Fordham

AGS Patriot League Preseason prediction: 5^th place

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Tennessee Tech – empty

2016 MVFC Preview: Indiana State

2015 Record: 5-6 (3-5)

Key Returnees: RB Genesy Roland, RB LeMonte Booker, WR Tonyan Robert, DB Marcus Grey, DB Tsali Lough

Key Losses: QB Matt Adam, WR Gary Owens, LB Connor Underwood

It’s no secret, to anyone that’s read AGS at any point in the last decade, that I’ve long considered Indiana State to be one of the worst FCS programs in the nation. While they have moved past that I still see some serious issues within the program. Yes, Indiana State was in the playoffs in 2014 and had 8 wins. Yes, Indiana State was over .500 (6-5) in 2010 and 2011. Yes, they are improved over their 2-54 record from 05-09. No, they aren’t going to become a playoff team on an annual, or even triennial, basis.

Mike Sanford is entering his 4th year in Terre Haute, and going into spring ball there was a bit of optimism around the program. The roster may not have been a title contender, but they had a legitimate QB prospect under center that would keep them in, and potentially single-handedly win them a few games in Matt Adam. Last season Adam led the team in rushing yards, when sack yardage is taken out of his total, as well as rushing TD. Adam was also a more than competent passer, completing 56.3% of his passes for 2,098 yards and 19 touchdowns. Coming into his red-shirt junior year, along with the amount of returning players around him on offense, there was a real reason to believe the offense could keep the Sycs in games. Then, in May, the bombshell that he would be sitting the 2016 season out to get his grades in order. That is a tremendous loss for Indiana State, by a great decision by Adam to prioritize academics that we don’t normally get to see from athletes.

So who takes over at QB for Indiana State? The only returning QB on the roster, or even listed on the roster as of writing this, is red-shirt sophomore Isaac Harker. That sentence, on it’s own is depressing to read on it’s own, then you add in the fact that Harker completed 2 passes for 16 yards last season and it gets real depressing, real quick. Harker did have a heavily touted high school career, but after sitting on the bench for three years I’d have concern with his ability to step in and succeed. Not all is lost though. Rumors of QB help coming in via transfer are strong, by way of Aaron Young from Wyoming. Young will be a redshirt sophomore this coming season as well. I try to stay out of speculation for incoming freshman and transfers, as there is too much room for error, and that’s the case for Young as well who saw the field only as a PAT holder last season.

Whoever Mike Sanford puts on the field come week one will have some help around him. Matt Adam may have been the most explosive weapon for the Sycamores last year but that isn’t to say there isn’t ammunition left. On the ground Roland Genesey averaged 4.98 yards per carry on his 117 carries last season and LeMonte Booker 4.97 while combing for 1,019 yards and 6 scores. Getting the two of them to repeat that type of performance is going to be key for the new quarterbacks development. I’m worried that the two will see a drop though. From the games I saw last year most of the holes that Genesey and Booker ran through were a result of the defenses reacting to Matt Adam’s dual threat explosiveness.

The receiving corps has returns quite a bit of experience, but will need to develop a rhythm with the new quarterback in a hurry. Robert Tonyan was Adam’s favorite target last year as he finished with 604 yards and 6 touchdowns on 40 receptions. Complimenting Tonyan are Sam Levingston (26 catches 319 yards 2 TD) and Kelvin Cook (22 catches 206 yards 1 TD). The loss of Gary Owens (36 catches 558 yards 8 TD) will be tough to overcome though. His last two years on campus Owens was to Indiana State what Zach Vraa was to NDSU. He was the go to guy when a big play was needed, and more often than not he made it. If Tonyan takes on that role and a younger guy slides into the role Tonyan occupied the corps should be alright.

How is Underwood's leadership replaced? — How is Underwood’s leadership replaced?

Outside of QB play, the defense will be what holds this team back, I believe. Yes, they do return 3 of their top 6 tacklers from last year, but they are all defensive backs. Once again I’ll say that if your DB’s are leading your team in tackles it’s a bad thing. My big concern for the Sycamore defense is the loss of Connor Underwood. Yes, he missed 4 games last year so there is experience without him on the field. It’s impossible to replace the kind of intelligence and leadership a guy Connor, who was a three time All Conference, an All American, and Buck Buchanan Finalist would provide. Coming into the year there are only 19 guys on defense who recorded at least one tackle last year, and only 8 that averaged 2 or more per game.

Schedule breakdown:

9/3 Butler – W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 @ Minnesota (FBS) – L 1-1 (0-0)

9/17 @ Southeast Missouri State – L – 1-2 (0-0)

9/24 Illinois State – L 1-3 (0-1)

10/1 Missouri State – W 2-3 (1-1)

10/8 @ Western Illinois – L 2-4 (1-2)

10/15 South Dakota – W 3-4 (2-2)

10/22 @ Southern Illinois – L 3-5 (2-3)

10/29 @ Youngstown State – L 3-6 (2-4)

11/5 Northern Iowa – L 3-7 (2-5)

11/12 @ North Dakota State – L 3-8 (2-6)

I see a tough year in Terra Haute. Honestly, if Adam was playing this year I could see Indiana State as a 5, maybe 6, win team. I think he makes that big of a difference. The schedule does set up early for potentially gaining confidence and running a few games that I have as losses. The SEMO game is a complete toss up for me. It was a 1 point game last year in Terra Haute, so in Cape Girardeau I give the edge to SEMO. Illinois State I could see going to Indiana State given what the Redbirds lose that game will come down to which new QB steps up more. The only game I have potentially swinging to ISU is the USD game. It’s at home so I gave them the edge.

I’d like to be wrong with Indiana State. I’d like to see them become competitive year after year, I just don’t’ see it happening on a regular basis. This season could be a key year for Sanford. Indiana State tasted playoffs, and a win. If Sanford slides back two years in row after that how does it play within the athletic department and fans?

2016 MVFC Preview: Illinois State

2015 Record: 10-3 (7-1): Shared MVFC Champion, Playoffs (2nd Round)

Key Returnees: WR Anthony Warrum, CB Davontae Harris, DE Brannon Barry

Key Losses: QB Tre Roberson, RB Marshaun Coprich, DE Teddy Corwin, DE David Perkins, LB Pat Meehan, LB Alex Donnelly

Illinois State is coming off of back-to-back co-conference championships and over those two years they are a combined 23-5 with a trip to a national title game. A program coming off of a run like that you’d think there is no way there’s a significant drop the next year. There is a reason for optimism, if you’re a Redbird fan, that the regression won’t be too far. Brock Spack is entering his 8th year in Normal, where he’s won 65.88% of his games and seems to finally be finding “his program”. The realist in me, though, looks at that with a few tablespoons of salt as his first 5 years he was just 33-24, missed the playoffs in 4 of those 5, and was just 5-6 in 2013 with his seat starting to get a touch uncomfortable as he was unable to ride Matt Brown, who holds more records than almost every other MVFC quarterback, to a playoff berth. Something happened in 2014 to change that. Maybe it was his system finally taking hold. Maybe 09-13 had a large number of “bad bounces” that held them back. The more likely reason for the elevation the last two years is the reason I’m quite bearish about them moving forward: Tre Roberson, Marshaun Coprich, and Kurt Beathard.

The trio of an All Conference quarterback Tre Roberson, transferring in from Indiana (where he had received Big 10 Player of the Week honors), running back Marshaun Coprich transforming into a multi time All American, and offensive coordinator Kurt Beathard, stepping on campus. Those three electrified Redbird fans for two years. In 2015 Roberson and Coprich accounted for all but 592 yards and 8 total rushing and passing touchdowns. Heading into this season Roberson and Coprich have graduated, and the offensive coordinator announced his resignation June 16th. The timing of his resignation seems strange, there is no reason to doubt his wanting to spend time with his family as his youngest child will be a senior in high school this year.

With that trio gone, where does Illinois State turn?

Jake Kolbe, rSo, seems like the unquestioned starter going into the year. He’s the only QB with any real experience. He saw action in all 13 games for Illinois State last season, though he really only accumulated stats in two of them – Iowa and UNI. He looked impressive against both, but for the season completed just 26 passes for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns. He doesn’t have the dynamic ability of Tre, but he certainly looks “serviceable” at the very least. I have fewer questions about him stepping in and taking charge than I do whomever Spack starts at tailback. After Coprich, no other back had more carries than rSo. George Moreira who had 34 carries for 145 yards (4.2 ypc) and 1 touchdown. If I was putting a bet on a starter going into fall camp/week 1 it would be him, though Jamal Towns (28 carries 164 yards and 2 touchdowns) is another potentially solid starter. I doubt we see one back dominate carries like Coprich did. The bright spot for Illinois State is the returning receiving corps – more specifically, Anthony Warrum. Last season Warrum had 58 catches for 1,290 yards and 15 touchdowns. His numbers are higher in every category than the rest of the Redbird wide receivers combined. The key will be the new OC getting Kolbe in a position to get the ball into his hands, and a running game that can keep defenses from focusing strictly on the Kolbe/Warrum connection.

When looking at lost players, everyone, rightfully so, focuses on Roberson and Coprich. What 98% of people overlook is the losses on defense. Gone are DE Teddy Corwin (2x All Conference), LB Pat Meehan (2X 1st team All Conference, 1x 2nd Team All Conference), linebacker Alex Donnelly (2X All Conference and started every game over last three years), and DE David Perkins (3x All Conference selection, led team in TFL and sacks), among others. Those are not easy guys to replace. The Redbirds do return a fair amount of talent, but I wonder if the Richmond playoff game, where ISU was torched, gave a game plan for others to study. Overall though, the defense is in much better shape than the offense.

So where does all that leave Illinois State? Well, unfortunately NDSU is back on their schedule after being off for two years. They do get the best possible consolation prize though as Northern Iowa drops off for the next two. Here’s how I see their season going:

9/3 Valparaiso – W 1-0 (0-0)
9/10 @ Northwestern (FBS) – L 1-1 (0-0)
9/17 Eastern Illinois – W 2-1 (0-0)
9/24 @ Indiana State – W 3-1 (1-0)
10/1 @ North Dakota State – L 3-2 (1-1)
10/8 Youngstown State – L 3-3 (1-2)
10/15 Southern Illinois – W 4-3 (2-2)
10/22 @ South Dakota – W 5-3 (3-2)
10/29 South Dakota State – L 5-4 (3-3)
11/5 @ Western Illinois – L 5-5 (3-4)
11/12 Missouri State – W 6-5 (4-4)

As I mentioned, I’m probably more bearish than most on Illinois State. If Youngstown State was a few weeks later I’d probably take Illinois State, simply because of the normal late season Penguin meltdown when it gets cold and some inexperience of ISU getting traction. If the offense comes together the SDSU game could also be flipped. There are two I’m pretty solid on, but could be swayed on if the new coaching staff doesn’t get off to a smooth start at WIU, or better than expected start at USD.

We had never seen a 6-5 playoff team before last year, maybe ISU gets it this year based on name from the last few years, but I don’t see a playoff team. My guess is the high side, if everything clicks perfectly, for ISU is 8-3 (6-2) and worst case would be 4-7 (2-6). I know that’s a range, but I don’t know what to expect. They have good talent, just too many unknowns for me to trust them to be better than 6-5.

TSOTN Week 16 (Playoffs-4th Round)

National Notes Week 16

Kevin Marshall, National Contributor | December 16, 2015

The State of the Nation

We have reached the semifinals and three seeded teams remain. Sam Houston State has reached the semis for the fourth time in five years. North Dakota State has been here five years in a row. Are these two programs on a collision course for a rematch in Frisco? Richmond and Jacksonville State will have something to say about that kind of peeking ahead.

The Reviews

#1 Jacksonville State 58 #8 Charleston Southern 38
The second largest crowd in Jacksonville State history 22, 797 and a national television audience saw a great game between the Gamecocks and the Buccaneers. When you look at the final score it is hard to believe that this was a 13-10 game at the half. The Gamecocks came out in the second half and flat out dominated on offense. They racked up 45 points and 425 yards in that second half. It was the Eli Jenkins and Troymaine Pope show once again for the Cocks. Jenkins threw for 91 yards and rushed for 195 yards for the second consecutive week. Pope ran for 250 yards and three touchdowns. It was a record setting night for Jenkins and Pope. Pope became the Gamecocks all time single season rushing leader with 1576 yards. Jenkins broke the school record for total offense and has 7, 922 yards in his career. Congratulations to these two young men.

#7 Richmond 39 #2 Illinois State 27
The Richmond Spiders snapped a 19 game home winning streak by defeating the Redbirds in Normal. Spider running back Jacobi Green rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns. Richmond quarterback Kyle Lauletta was 18 of 30 for 369 yards and his favorite target was Brian Brown. Brown had 141 receiving yards on just five grabs. The Spider defense was outstanding. All-American Marshaun Coprich was held to only 30 yards rushing. All season long we heard about how weak the CAA was but here we are again with a Colonial Athletic Association team in the semifinals.

#3 North Dakota State 23 Northern Iowa 13
This was just an old fashioned buckle your chin strap and hit somebody defensive struggle. The Bison eliminated the big play and the Panthers just couldn’t string together enough drives to win. Bison Freshman Bruce Anderson had the play of the day. Anderson fielded the second half kickoff at the 3 yard line and and took it all the way for a touchdown. Anderson gave the Bison the lead which they never relinquished. Bison quarterback Easton Stick was an efficient 13 of 17 for 116 yards and more importantly zero interceptions.

Sam Houston State 48 Colgate 21
The Bearkats scored on six of their first seven drives to overwhelm Colgate. The unseeded Bearkats have defeated three straight conference champions in this playoff run. Jeremiah Briscoe threw for 358 yards and four touchdowns and has really been the difference in these playoffs. He can make all the throws and doesn’t do anything to hurt his team. If he can continue this trend SHSU just may wind up in Frisco.

The Interviews

Mr. Mike Parris (@JSUVoice), Voice of the Jacksonville State Gamecocks, joins us to speak about his team. Mr. Kooter Roberson, Voice of the Sam Houston State Bearkats, makes an appearance on The FCS Wedge to give us the scoop on the Bearkats. Thanks to both of these Southern Gentlemen for making the time to sit down with us. Kris Kallem and Lance Berndt break down the semifinals and update the FCS Coaching Carousel. Some good jobs were filled this week and some remain open. Get up to speed with Lance and Kris.

The Previews

#7 Richmond @ #3 NDSU
Richmond sis what that had to do to whip Illinois State last week. They stuffed the run and made the quarterback beat them throwing the ball. If they can do it that game plan will be successful in the Fargodome as well. I don’t think they can. Bison 24-21.

Sam Houston State @ #1 Jacksonville State
These may be the two most athletic teams in the FCS. Both of the play by play guys said they were almost a mirror image of one another. I think that Sam Houston State has the experience of being here before and that will be the difference. Bearkats in the upset 52-48.