The FCS Wedge

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Austin Peay

*Thank you to JSUSoutherner on AGS for putting together our OVC previews

2015 Record: 0-11 (0-8 OVC)

Key Losses: QB Trey Taylor, LB Adam Nobel

Key Returnees: RB Kendall Morris, WR Jared Beard, DB Roderick Owens

Things haven’t been too great the last few years in Clarksville, Tennessee. The Governors are coming off another 0 win season, their second in three years. In fact, they only have one win in their past three years under Kirby Cannon, a 20-13 win over a visiting Murray State team that went on to a 1-7 OVC record in 2014. That win in 2014 snapped the longest losing streak in the FCS at the time, 18 losses in a row. Unfortunately, the Governors have lost 16 games since then to once again claim the longest losing streak in Division I football.

However, the future is bright in Clarksville and double digit losing streaks look to be a thing of the past.

APSU has been a hot topic (for a team that hasn’t had back to back wins in 5 years) this off season since Will Healy moved to town. Coach Healy was the former wide receivers coach, passing-game coordinator, and recruiting coordinator for the Chattanooga Mocs and will take the helm from an unproductive Kirby Cannon. Healy has so far looked productive for the Governors this offseason as he put together one of the Gov’s best recruiting classes in years. Coach Healy’s recruiting experience with the Mocs will likely prove to be useful as the Govs begin their rebuilding stage.

Healy has the Herculean task of turn the program around and that will be easier said than done. Last year APSU’s offense only managed 12 points a game and only averaged 248 yards a game. And to make matters worse a majority of those points and yards came in garbage time when they were getting blown out and teams had their backups in. Fortunately Healy engineered a passing game at UTC that was consistently ranked as one of the best in the nation. If he can bring implement his scheme with APSU’s personnel we may see some drastic improvement on the offensive side of the ball.

The other problem for APSU was defense. Last year the Govs gave up 451 yards and 39 points per game. New defensive coordinators Marcus West and Brandon Cooper, like Healy, spent time coaching for the Moc’s. During their tenure at UTC the Moc’s consistently had one of the top SoCon defense. However, they had numerous All-SoCon and All-American players on deck. This year they have no players on the preseason All-OVC list to work with. But with the amount of new talent the Govs brought in Cooper and West can start from scratch and it will be interesting to see how that goes.

Schedule and Predictions: 1-10 (1-7 OVC)

L 9/3 @ Troy

W 9/10 vs. Tennessee Tech

L 9/24 @ Eastern Illinois

L 10/1 vs. Murray State

L 10/8 @ UT-Martin

L 10/15 @ Jacksonville State

L 10/22 vs. Mercer

L 10/29 @ Southeast Missouri State

L 11/5 vs. Tennessee State

L 11/12 vs. Eastern Kentucky

L 11/19 @ Kentucky

Look for the Governors to make some progress this season, hauling in a win over Tennessee Tech at home. They will likely remain at the bottom of the conference but any success at all will be an improvement for APSU and this is only the beginning of a new era for Austin Peay football.

2016 MVFC Preview: Northern Iowa

2015: 9-5, Quarterfinals

Key Returnees: QB Aaron Bailey, RB Tyvis Smith, DL Karter Schult, LB Jared Farley, OL Robert Rathje

Key Losses: DB Deiondre’ Hall, DB Makinton Dorleant, DB Tim Kilfoy, LB Brett McMakin, OL Jacob Rathmacher

Is this the year UNI finally gets a national title? National consensus heading into the season certainly seems to think UNI is one of, maybe, three teams that can dethrone NDSU. As a UNI fan I can tell you this it the most excited I’ve been about a team since the 2007 and 2008 UNI teams, which took the typical UNI bad bounce out of the playoffs. I know it’s easy to look at what has transpired since 2010, especially with the offensive side of the ball, and question what I just said. The complete lack of identity on offense, the instability that has happened yearly at the quarterback position, the fact UNI is on it’s third offensive system in three years, and lack of true “known star” at the wide receiver position should mean the expectations should be dropped a bit, the loss of the entire secondary and the teams leading tackler to the NFL, yet they are as high as they’ve been in a decade. Why?

Bailey's consistency is key. — Bailey’s consistency is key.

This might be the first year, under Mark Farley, the offense has less questions than the defense and it all starts with the fact there is no, at least shouldn’t be, quarterback battle/controversy. Not just that, UNI has the most explosive player in the conference at that position. Bailey was part of a two quarterback system last fall through the first six games with Sawyer Kollmorgen. Another concussion ended Sawyer’s Panther career and the reigns were handed to Bailey full time. Once he was given the full time job he excelled. He completed 59.9% of his passes for 994 yards with 8 touchdowns and just one interception. The yards were on the lower end, but there is no questioning the efficiency. On top of the passing Bailey carried the ball 170 times for 864 yards (5.14 ypc, which includes sacks and sack yards) and 15 touchdowns. Imagine Bailey having the system built around him from day 1 of spring camp. The thing Bailey must improve is letting routes develop. Due to his freakish athletic ability he is quick to pull the ball down and run. For the offense to be as effective as it can he must develop that skill. I know it was preached during spring ball, to the point where if he broke the pocket at all during a play it was blown dead.

Complimenting Bailey in the backfield is Tyvis Smith, who like Bailey, wasn’t the starter (or even get significant time) until the second half of the season. The 6’3 225lb back is built nearly identical to his predecessor, David Johnson, and when given the ball he seems to run like him. Tyvis finished with 1,079 yards on 182 carries (5.9 yards per carry) last season. They key factor for the run game will be keeping both Bailey and Smith healthy as there isn’t much proven depth behind them. Michael Malloy looked like a promising change of pace back, and was used in a scat back role last year to growing success as the season went on before he suffered a season ending injury. While UNI’s offense has been known to produce talented running back after talented running back I think there should be real concern about proven depth should Smith or Malloy go down with an injury.

Daurice Fountain looking for a breakout season

The receiving corps has two guys that have proven they can get open: Daurice Fountain and Charles Brown. Fountain, a big downfield target with speed, lead the team in receptions (41), yards (604) and touchdowns (5) last season. Brown, a smaller and shiftier slot type, was second in receptions (30) and yards (345) and third on the team in touchdowns (2). Between the two of them we have 59% of the returning receptions, 62% of the yards and 59% of the touchdowns. The key will be who steps in to take pressure off those two. Running back Michael Malloy, as mentioned earlier, made some plays as the season wore on our of a slot look but this team still needs another guy or two to step up and take some secondary attention from Fountain and Brown. My biggest concern, for the entire group, is improving the catch rate. While drops aren’t kept as an official stat it felt as though there were times last season that over half of the incompletions were a result of a drop rather than a poor throw. That will need to be remedied for Bailey to grow. For Bailey to trust his arm more than his legs he must have confidence the receiving corp is going to going to make the play when he needs them too.

Schult looking to repeat last season's success — Schult looking to repeat last season’s success

The defense could, and probably should, be considered a question mark. Gone to the NFL are LB Brett McMakin, CB/S Deiondre’ Hall, CB Makinton Dorleant, S Tim Kilfoy, CB Edwin Young from last years defense. Most teams lose that and I would expect a massive drop off, but UNI (like NDSU) is a different animal when it comes to defense in that it doesn’t entirely matter what the name on the uniform is, though guys like UNI has had come through help. The system is setup to put players in a position to succeed. The secondary will take time to develop, thankfully UNI has one of the best front sevens in the nation every year. On the line Karter Schult (81 tackles, 14 sacks, 22.5 TFL) will force opposing quarterbacks into quick throws and allow the secondary time to develop. The linebacking core will be lead by Jared Farley (97 tackles, 9 TFL, 2.5 sack, INT) and Deshawn Dexter (66 tackles, 11 TFL). Teams won’t be able to run against UNI, once again, so the pressure will be on the secondary to develop as quick as possible.

Prediction:

9/3 @ Iowa State

9/10 Montana

9/17 @ Eastern Washington

10/1 Southern Illinois

10/8 @ South Dakota

10/15 @ Youngstown State

10/22 Missouri State

10/29 North Dakota State

11/5 @ Indiana State

11/12 @ Western Illinois

11/19 South Dakota State

To avoid the calls of “HOMER”, “BOOOO”, “UNI ALWAYS CHOKES”, etc… I won’t predict a record for UNI. It seems right. There are plenty of games that are toss up for me. Iowa State could be a loss, but I don’t trust Iowa State to actually be better and using last year as a litmus for this year is a bad idea. UNI has lost just 2 FCS OOC games since 1997, both at home and both to SFA. I think UNI finally gets revenge on Montana and continues it’s streak against EWU, though the passing game of both scares the hell out of me with the secondary UNI will have. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see one of those two end in a loss. In conference I could see NDSU being a loss, but that game is in Cedar Falls and I don’t think we see UNI lose at home. South Dakota and Indiana State both worry me a bit. UNI has had some issues with both as of recent years, and going to Indiana State the week after NDSU should raise a flag. Both NDSU and UNI have a big of a “down” the week after that war. I think this is a legit title contender. Yes, I think 11-0 is possible, though likely not realistic. I see 9-2 being the most likely situation and anything worse than 8-3 is, from a preseason view, a complete let down.

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Charleston Southern

*Preview courtesy of Libertine on AGS.

2015 was, without question, the high water mark in the history of the football program at Charleston Southern University. CSU captured the conference crown outright, the first squad to do that since Stony Brook in 2011 and only the third team to do it since the Big South moved to a playoff-eligible six teams in 2008. The Bucs took their accomplishment two steps farther by defeating crosstown foe, The Citadel, in the second round of the playoffs before ultimately losing to Jacksonville State in the quarterfinals. Until that game, CSU had won every FCS game on their schedule, including two eventual playoff teams in The Citadel and Coastal Carolina during the regular season (their two losses were to FBS Troy and Alabama), and the final 2015 polls gave the team and head coach Jamey Chadwell a great deal of the recognition that CSU has long sought after. The question and the challenge for the team in 2016 then is one of consistency. Can they do it again?

On offense, Chuck South returns several key players in the backfield, most notably RB’s Darius Hammond and Ben Robinson. The receiving corps returns solid possession receiver Colton Korn and explosiveness of Kenny Dinkins. However, leading receiver Nathan Perera, a big-time target anywhere on the field, graduated after his sixth year in blue. His experience as well as his ability both to produce and to draw defenders was invaluable in 2015 and there’s a big statistical dropoff at the position after him. Three starters on the offensive line graduated as well, as did 6’8” tight end Nathan Prater (who was also a sixth-year player). The most glaring loss on the offense, however, has to be at quarterback. Chadwell’s option-based offense tends to be a little rough on quarterbacks and the Bucs have had to play at least three QB’s in every year that Chadwell has been there. The nominal starter for the last two seasons, one-time UAB transfer Austin Brown, graduated following the 2015 season and so did fellow QB, Danny Croghan. This leaves only rJr Kyle Copeland as the only returning Q with any game experience. Chadwell and his staff are optimistic that Blinn JC transfer Robert Mitchell can shoulder some of the load but history suggests they’re going to need one more.

CSU didn’t have any particular standout talents on the defensive side of the ball. What they did have was a group of players who had played together for several years and knew their assignments backward and forward. Graduation, however, claimed three starters in the secondary, three more in the linebacking corps and one more along the defensive line. On their own, none of these losses is dramatic; however, these losses taken together represent a pool of experience on the field that must now be re-filled in short order. The defensive line will be all right and linebackers Zane Cruz and Solomon Brown are the leading tacklers returning from last season but there is a dearth of experience behind them.

The special teams unit has been inconsistent for the Bucs for a couple of years. Their undefeated season in 2013 was derailed in what was primarily a special teams meltdown at Gardner-Webb and special teams miscues contributed largely in their pivotal 7-3 loss to Presbyterian in 2014. 2015 started off much the same way for CSU and, at one point mid-season, Chadwell opened up a full-team tryout at kicker. Things settled down for them, however, in the last half of the season as true freshman Tyler Tekac took over the FG duties and converted the majority of them.

The schedule:

@ North Dakota State (8/29)

Kentucky State (9/3)

@ Florida State (9/10)

@ Monmouth (9/24)

@ Coastal Carolina (10/1)

Albany State (10/8)

Presbyterian (10/22)

Bucknell (10/29)

Gardner-Webb (11/5)

@ Liberty (11/12)

Kennesaw State (11/19)

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Fordham

*Thank you to the Patriot League posters who helped gather the information for this article

2015 Results: 9-3 (5-1); At-large bid, 1st round playoff loss
Returning starters:
Offense: 10
Defense: 8
The biggest hit Fordham faces from last seasons run to the playoffs is the loss of arguably the greatest coach in Fordham history, Joe Moorhead, who is now the offensive coordinator at Penn State. The good news for Rams fans is that the man he trusted most, his offensive coordinator Andrew Breiner, has assumed the helm and the staff and systems will remain in place. Easing the transition from Moorhead to Breiner is that face that Moorhead left the cupboard full with 18 of 22 starters returning.

Offensively we all know who Fordham will lean on – All American running back Chase Edmonds. Last season Edmonds had a “down year” by the standard he set his first year, and by bad I mean he still ran for 1,648 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and 20 touchdowns. While Chase may get most of the national publicity he’s not the lone play maker in the backfield as dual threat quarterback Kevin Anderson ran for 590 yards and passed for over 3,000 in 2015. A key for Fordham moving forward will be lessening the reliance on Edmonds, as it means their passing game is clicking and they are seeing a more diversified attack. To help the passing game grow it helps to have a legit NFL prospect in 6’8 250lb TE Phazahn Odom who hauled in 37 passes and 7 touchdowns last season. The Rams will need to see growth from the young receiving corps though. Last season three freshman (Corey Caddle, Jonahtha Lumley and Jordan Allen) saw significant playing time. Moving into their second year on the field, and teamed with seniors Robbie Cantllie and Austin Longi should create depth at the position to help take pressure off of Edmonds. The biggest loss, and question, on offense is All American lineman Gerrick Mayweather moving on to the NFL. The rest of the OL is back, but Mayweather is tough to replace. If firing on all cylinders, this offense has a chance to put up numbers like few in the FCS.

Can the Rams defense take a step forward this season?

All of the offense in the world still needs help from it’s defense. To quote a Fordham fan on AGS when asked about the Rams defense last year “we stunk”. This isn’t something that was lost on new head coach, Andrew Breiner, who has vowed to overhaul the philosophy. We see a “good news/bad news” situation with the Rams defense – essentially the entire defense is back, minus All Conference linebacker Stephen Hodge. The good news is guys like George Dawson and Niko Tharpe are back in the linebacking corps. Defensive line anchors Manny Adeyeye and Marlon Crook are back. The front seven should be improved, even with Hodge’s departure. I’d like to say the secondary having everyone back is good news as well, but based on how things played out last year it’s a catch-22. In theory a year of experience should help the group, but much improvement is needed.

2016 Schedule:

9/3 @ United States Naval Academy
9/10 Elizabeth City States
9/24 Penn
10/1 @ Monmouth
10/8 Lafayette
10/15 Yale
10/22 Georgetown
10/29 @ Lehigh
11/5 Colgate
11/12 @ Holy Cross
11/19 @ Bucknell

AGS Preseason Patriot Prediction: 2nd

2016 Big Sky Preview: Eastern Washington

2015 Record: 6-5 (5-3)

Key Returners: Cooper Kupp, Gage Gubrud, Jordan West, Jabari Wilson, Kendrick Bourne

Key Losses: Tyler McNannay, Todd Raynes, the offensive line

The Eastern Washington Eagles are returning a good amount of talent on offense this year, but much like last year, will it translate to wins? The Eagles finished at 6-5 last year, which did not earn them a playoff berth. Four times last year the Eagles allowed more than 50 points to be scored on them. Their defense finished ranked 117^th out of 123 teams. Folks, I don’t have to tell you that’s bad. Only one Big Sky school was worse than that. To add to the complexity of the Eastern Washington preseason is a quarterback battle brewing between Jordan West and Gage Gubrud, a sophomore from McMinnville, Oregon.

The Eagles gave up 476 yards per game last year and allowed 58 touchdowns against them. By comparison, as high powered as the Eagles offense was, they only scored 50 touchdowns. Those numbers, at the bare minimum, will need to reverse in order for the Eagles to reach the playoffs this coming season. The Eastern Washington defense finished 117th out of 123 FCS teams last season. At some point the Eagles will need to start playing some defense to become a legitimate playoff contender. Beau Baldwin needs to make that a priority if he wants his team to find the deeper levels of the playoffs, offense will only take you so far against teams who play very good defense every week.

For all the bad things that Eastern Washington does on defense they do some pretty good things on offense. The Eagles return an FCS player of the year candidate in Cooper Kupp and a quarterback to throw to him, Jordan West. As mentioned above, West could very well lose his starting job during the fall camp. Cupp finished with 1642 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. Eastern finished eighth in total offense last year, third in the Big Sky. The Eagles were the top passing attack in the country last year, averaging 353 yards per game through the air. The Eagles also return their leading rusher from last season, Jabari Wilson, who piled up nine touchdowns himself. Unfortunately for Wilson, because the Eagles are so efficient through the air only piled up 661 yards on the ground.

The Eagles may find themselves in a track meet right away to start the season as they travel to Pullman to take on Mike Leach’s Washington State Cougars. Eastern doesn’t want a track meet with Leach’s boys if they want to win. From there the buzz saw gets tougher as they travel to Fargo to take on the defending national champion North Dakota State. After that is a home contest with Northern Iowa, then an away date with Northern Arizona.

I feel pretty bad for Eastern in September, that’s an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season, and they could easily start 0-4. The schedule lightens up in October with UC-Davis and Northern Colorado at home. They’ll finish with Portland State on the road. This is not an easy schedule and Eastern will be literally clawing its way into the playoffs if it’s close. They need an upset or two in September to be a playoff team.

The Eagles are picked by the media to finish third in the Big Sky this coming season. Realistically there is three games in conference that they could lose and should win the rest on their schedule. In this year’s Big Sky I don’t think that three conference losses will be good enough for a third place finish. Considering that their start to the season could be pretty ugly I just don’t see the Eagles as a playoff team. Unfortunately if the Eagles are not a playoff team that could do some damage to Cooper Kupp’s campaign to be the FCS player of the year.

9/3/2016     at Washington State
9/10/2016     at North Dakota State
9/17/2016    Northern Iowa
9/24/2016     at Northern Arizona
10/1/2016    UC Davis
10/8/2016    Northern Colorado
10/22/2016    at Montana State
10/29/2016    Montana
11/5/2016     at Cal Poly
11/12/2016    Idaho State
11/18/2016    at Portland State

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Colgate

2015 Results: Colgate 9-5 (6-0); Patriot League Champions, Quafterfinals
Returning starters:
Offense: 9
Defense: 9

Coming into the season Raiders look to be the most balanced team in the Patriot League. Senior quarterback Jake Melville is the focus of the Raiders offense, and honestly, he’d be the focus of most offenses in the nation. Last season Melville completed 55% of his passes for 2,552 yards (a nice 13.2 yards per completion) and perhaps most impressively was his 11 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. What made Melville such a threat throught he air was is his ability to get outside of the pocket as he ran for 1,073 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 11 more touchdowns. Helping open up room for Melville to make plays is running back James Holland who ran for 732 yards and an impressive 16 touchdowns last season. That kind of threat out of the backfield opens up plenty of space at wide receiver to make plays. The biggest beneficiary of that is John Maddaluna. Maddaluna is a burner on the outside as he finished with 62 catches for 910 yards last season. Between Melville and Holland there aren’t many touchdowns to go around, but for Colgate to repeat last years playoff run I think Maddaluna will need to find his way into the end zone a few more times. Complimenting Maddaluna on the other side is Alex Greenwalk, who finished last season with 5 touchdowns and 598 yards on 40 receptions last year. After that there is a drop in production returning though. The top end talent is there to see a repeat of last season, but depth could become an issue should the injury bug show up.

Last season the Raider defense was inconsistent at times but overall fairly solid. The best thing to help this unit with it’s consistency is the face that 9 starters return from last years squad. As an added bonus, two starters from the 2014 campaign return after missing last season due to injury – Defensive tackle Victor Steffen and safety Adam Bridgeforth. Returning up front are the anchors for the entire defense, Pat Afriyie (First Time All League), Alex Campbell (Second Team All League) and Brett Field (Second Team All League). The havoc caused by those three up front frees the linebackers and secondary to make plays sideline to sideline, which is seen in the secondary secondary as Joe Figueroa, Christian Hardegree and Tyler Castillo all being in the top 10 on the team in tackles. Normally the secondary being towards the top of the team in tackles isn’t a good sign, but when it can be attributed to guys up front allowing them too make playes, compared to them being forced to make them, it’s a good sign.

The challenge for Colgate is staying on edge. Coach Hunt commented on the difficulty of repeating as champions. Colgate achieved it last year with the ability to win a lot of close games, which they’ll need again this year as the two toughest games, Fordham and Lehigh, and all three OOC games on the road.

2016 Schedule:

9/2 @ Syracuse

9/17 @ Yale

9/24 @ Richmond

10/1 Cornell

10/8 @ Lehigh

10/15 @ Bucknell

10/29 Holy Cross

11/5 @ Fordham

11/12 Lafayette

11/19 Georgetown

AGS Preseason Patriot League Prediction: 1st

2016 MVFC Preview: North Dakota State

2015: 13-2 (7-1): Shared MVFC Championship, National Championship

Key Returnees: Everyone

Key Losses: All of them and none of them

Is there anything left to be said about the Bison at this point? I mean, seriously? Five straight NCAA titles. Five straight MVFC titles, though I feel obliged to point out that only two of them are outright titles for some reason. Two head coaches during that time and zero drop off between the two. All Americans and NFL draft picks come and go and then come around again. Starting to write this I put what I did for the returnees and losses as a joke, but the more I thought about it and the further I got into the preview the more I realized I had to leave it that way. I know what you’re thinking, “Great, as if we don’t get enough Bizun bragging on the boards”. Well, yeah, kinda. When you do what NDSU has done it comes with the territory. Maybe we find a weak spot in this…maybe.

Let’s start with a quick look at the quarterback spot, where the Bison just lost Carson Wentz to the Eagles with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft. Losing that type of quarterback would mean instant drop off, but Easton Stick got significant playing time last season while Carson healed up a broken wrist. Stick appeared in 11 games, started 8 (more than Wentz), and completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,144 yards with 13 TD and just 4 INT. It’s clear Stick has talent, but what will be interesting to watch is how he looks using the “full play book”. Watching NDSU last year, and looking at his averages per game, it was pretty clear NDSU’s staff knew they didn’t have to expose him to the more indepth portions of the playbook and knew he could rely on the rest of the roster to “carry” him. There is more than enough returning to “protect” Stick if need be. I see a ton of talent, but I want to see how he looks as the guy.

It’s not like Stick will have to carry the team on his own. We all know NDSU is known for their ground game and it typically it involves a herd *nudge nudge* backs splitting the carries. This year’s stable of backs is, essentially, the same as last year just with a year of experience. King Fraizer returns for his seniors season on the back of 1,158 yard and 11 touchdown season. The problem for opposing defenses is King is just the start of the onslaught. Coming behind him is Bruce Anderson (90-503-2), Lance Dunn (95-468-3), Chase Morlock (95-354-5), and then even Stick gets involved (85-498-5). Yup, that’s roughly 500 carries for just under 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns coming back from the dominant rushing game.

The place that defenses have a chance to make strides in slowing the NDSU offense down is through the passing game. I’ve already covered that Stick wasn’t asked to make a ton of plays through the air and him doing so this year would be key, well, the one place NDSU seems to actually have been hit is at WR. Yes, guys like RJ Urzendowski (48-669-6) and Darrius Shepherd (40-575-5) are back, but there is a drop after that. Yes, i realize that “statistically” most of the receptions are back. What I think is key is the loss of Zach Vraa (40-510-5). No, he didn’t have the best stats but if you watched NDSU the last 4 years you know who he is. You know how important he was to Wentz, and Stick. Any time a play was needed it was Vraa that got his number called 90+% of the time. NDSU relies so heavily on the run game that I don’t expect much issue here, but it will be interesting to see play out.

Defensively does it really matter who they lost? To a larger extent than the offense it’s not about who the players on defense are, though it helps to have the talent that NDSU has had. The system NDSU has in place, thanks to Coach Klieman, will put anyone in position to succeed. It helps to have all but one of your top 10 defenders back when it comes to tackles, including Nick DeLuca who has been put on the preseason Butkus Award Watch List. There could be a hole in the armor early in the year, and potentially later depending on development, with the back corners. There is, essentially, no “real” retuning experience at corner. There are guys who saw time in clean up duty, but not much by way of full time experience. That may put added pressure on the safety duo of Robbie Grimsley and Tre Dempsey. If they are forced into coverage help it could open up seams for slot guys to get into, or force them to play off the line a bit more and open up a bit of space for a running back.

Prediction time:

8/27 Charleston Southern – W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 Eastern Washington – W 2-0 (0-0)

9/17 @ Iowa – L 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 Illinois State – W 3-1 (1-0)

10/8 @ Missouri State – W 4-1 (2-0)

10/15 South Dakota State – W 5-1 (3-0)

10/22 @ Western Illinois – W 6-1 (4-0)

10/29 @ Northern Iowa – L 6-2 (4-1)

11/5 Youngstown State – W 7-2 (5-1)

11/12 Indiana State – W 8-2 (6-1)

11/19 @ South Dakota – W 9-2 (7-1)

NDSU losing two regular season games? I must be high, right? Maybe. The Iowa/NDSU game is a lose/lose and win/win for me either way. One way someone is going to get another reason to slam UNI while the other is going to get knocked down a bit. I hope for a massive outbreak of the flu and the game is canceled. EWU is intriguing to me. There’s no way EWU stops NDSU, but that passing attack against new corners in week 2 after play a triple option team in week 1 could pose some issues. After that I see “smooth” sailing outside of the UNI game in the UNIDome. Call me a homer but I think UNI takes the conference this year, simply because they get NDSU in the UNIDome. We saw two years ago what a UNI team that has an identity can do, even in the two losses last year it was really only UNI that pushed NDSU. Sorry USD, I’m poo pooing your win because it came the week after UNI/NDSU’s blood bath…lightning in a bottle so to speak. Maybe NDSU slips again against a USD level team again. Wouldn’t be the first – USD in ‘15, Indiana State in ‘12, YSU in ‘11 and MSU in ‘10.

The only thing left to ponder is if there is a need to start sizing fingers on the other hand. I see no reason there couldn’t be. I only see one or two teams standing in the way of NDSU, one of them just so happens to be in the conference and likely same side of the bracket with the way the playoffs tend to shake out.

2016 Big Sky Preview: Cal Poly Mustangs

2015 Record: 4-7 (3-5)

Key Returners: Joe Protheroe, Kori Garcia, Kyle Lewis, Khaleel Jenkins

Key Losses: Willie Tucker, Stephen Pyle, Kaulin Blair, Chris Brown

The Cal Poly Mustangs finished 4-7 last year despite having the country’s leading rushing offense. Last season they checked in with 387 yards per game, 40 yards more than the next nearest team, The Citadel. The Mustangs will undoubtedly miss the production from quarterback Chris Brown, however, they return two of their offensive backfield in Kori Garcia and Joe Protheroe. The Mustangs, led by head coach Tim Walsh, in his eighth season, will look to rebound from a disappointing season in the win/loss column. Walsh has had a good amount of success since arriving at Cal Poly, piling up a 43-37 record while with the Mustangs.

The combination of the two returning running backs checked in with 1559 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. With that kind of combo returning you have to think that Cal Poly will be in the hunt again next season for the rushing title. Hard to tell of either will be in the hunt for the individual rushing title in the Big Sky considering how many ways the ball is split between ball carriers in their triple option based offense. The Mustangs will be breaking in a new quarterback this season to lead their multi-headed triple option rushing attack.

One reason you could say the Mustangs struggled last season was their defense, which ranked 112^th out of 123 FCS teams. They gave up 6.4 yards per play and 457 yards per game. The combination of those two things don’t typically add up to success, and a reason why the Mustangs finished with four wins. However, on offense the Mustangs were a relatively good team, finishing with 478 yards per game. That was good enough for eighth in the country, tied with fellow Big Sky team Eastern Washington. While the Mustangs did a lot of damage on the ground and controlled football games they were prone to getting hammered on the defensive side of the ball. The Mustangs finished +3 in the touchdown category last season.

The Mustangs are picked to finish ninth this coming season and I’d say that’s going to be accurate if they cannot improve their defense. Their schedule sets them up for, in theory, five wins but that’s going to be dependent on the offense keeping the defense off the field. The schedule for the Mustangs isn’t going to be easy. They will start their season at Nevada then host Montana and travel to South Dakota State. They’ll also be at North Dakota and Portland State, and also host Eastern Washington. Difficult schedule for this team, they have a lot of work to do to get to .500. Tim Walsh will probably get a bye if the Mustangs really struggle but you have to think that this trend cannot continue for much longer.

9/2    at Nevada
9/10    vs. San Diego
9/17    at South Dakota State
9/24    vs. Montana
10/1    at North Dakota
10/15    at Portland State
10/22    vs. UC Davis
10/29    at Sacramento State
11/5    vs. Eastern Washington
11/12    at Weber State
11/19    vs. Northern Colorado

2016 MVFC Preview: Missouri State

2015 Record: 1-10 (0-8)

Key Returnees: RB Calan Crowder, RB Jason Randall, WR Malik Earl, LB Dylan Cole

Key Losses: WR Eric Christophel, LB Christian Hoffmann

By the end of the 2015 season I actually started to feel a tad bit bad for the Bears. In Dave Steckel’s first season the Bears broke just about every MVFC record…that you wouldn’t want to break. Steckel came to Springfield known for his defensive genius. His Missouri Tigers consistently had a top 10 ranked FBS defense playing in the SEC. That success didn’t make the three hour trip from Columbia. The Bears defense gave up 48.6 points per game, 548.9 yards per game, 6.2 yards per carry, and allowed a 53% conversion rate on 3rd down. The Bears offense? It wasn’t any better. Over the final 6 weeks of the season the Bears offense scored just 19 total points and was shut out 3 times, but scored just 7 of those 19 points with the rest coming by way of special teams and a safety. The lone bright spot for the Bears was Deion Holliman who shattered every return record at MSU, thanks in large part to how often he was on the field returning kick offs.

This isn’t a “let’s break down all of the issues that plagued MSU” last year post though. This is a “Does it get better this year?” post. Well, it depends on how you view it. The reality is, it can’t get much worse than last year, if at all, and the good news is nearly everyone from last year returns with a year of experience on the field and in Steckel’s system. The bad news? This year’s Bears team is, essentially, the same team that took the field last season.

Offensively they have two running backs that have shown the ability to move the ball. Calan Crowder is the name most outside of Springfield will know. As a freshman he finished 9th in the conference in rushing with 766 yards after really only seeing time the final 6 games of the season. Last year, for a variety of reasons, he saw his carries drop to just 80 and his average per carry dipped to 3.2 yards. Crowder is paired with Jason Randal (90 carries 379 yards) in the back field. The quarterback position is a tad unsettled. Both Brodie Lambert (103 completions 776 yards 3 TD) and Breck Ruddick (52 completions 382 yards 2 TD) return. Ruddick started the season, but lost the position to Lambert as the season wore on. I would expect Lambert to start the year, but I don’t expect much from either QB. The receiving corps, like the rest of the offense, leaves much to be desired. Malik Earl (31 catches 352 yards 2 TD) is the leader of that group. He was the only receiver with more than 17 catches last year that’s returning.

The defense is lead by Dylan Cole. Last season he recorded 152 total tackles, which led the MVFC, on his way to earning First Team All MVFC. In conference play he averaged 15.4 tackles per game and logged 9 double digit tackle games, including the final seven games. After Cole the defense will be anchored by safety, Jared Beshore. As a freshman Beshore totaled 70 tackles, which was third most last season, including 43 solo stops. I don’t want to spin Beshore’s stellar performance into a negative, but when your free safety is totaling 70 tackles while not grabbing an interception things aren’t going well. The Bears do return leading sacker, Colby Isbell, though he had just 4.5 of them. The rest of the defense that returns will need to take significant steps if they don’t want to repeat the numbers from last year. Guys like Tre Betts, Anthony Upchurch, Alexz Jones and Kurran Blamey need to provide Cole and Beshore with some help. If they don’t, it’s going to be another long season.

Here’s how I see the schedule breaking down for MSU:

9/1 Southwestern College (Kan) (non D-1) W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 @ Murray State – L 1-1 (0-1)

9/24 @ Kansas State – L 1-2 (0-0)

10/1 @ Indiana State – L 1-3 (0-1)

10/8 North Dakota State – L 1-4 (0-2)

10/15 Western Illinois – L 1-5 (0-3)

10/22 @ Northern Iowa – L 1-6 (0-4)

10/29 Southern Illinois – L 1-7 (0-5)

11/5 @ South Dakota State – L 1-8 (0-6)

11/12 @ Illinois State – L 1-9 (0-7)

11/19 Youngstown State – L 1-10 (0-8)

I’m not sold on the Bears beating Southwestern College. Their D2 game against Chadron State last season was a 21-13 win that was less than impressive. They may pull off a game they shouldn’t this year, but I’m not sure where the win comes from. My best guess is Murray State, but outside of that I can’t imagine a D1 win this year either. I’d love to say it can’t get any worse than last year, but I didn’t think any MVFC could be as bad as the Bears were last year at that time.

2016 Big Sky Conference Preview

The fall football season is nearly upon us, and even though it’s still summer and fall camp hasn’t yet begun that doesn’t mean we can’t talk some football!

The Big Sky Conference just held their media days in Utah and they released their preseason poll. Here’s what the media had to say about this year’s preseason rankings:

Northern Arizona
Montana
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Portland State
Weber State
Southern Utah
Montana State
Cal Poly
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
UC Davis
Sacramento State

The preseason players of the year are Cooper Kupp from Eastern Washington and Caleb Kidder from Montana.

Judging by the rankings above the media seems to think that Case Cookus is primed for a pretty big season, plus playing their games with an advantage at 7000 feet seems to help too.

Montana, under second year head coach Bob Stitt, appears to be in the hunt for a Big Sky Championship again this year as well. Last year’s champion, Southern Utah, was picked to be in the middle of the pack, as well as last year’s runner-up, Portland State. It should be noted that Southern Utah had the most players named to the Big Sky preseason all-conference team.

One reason for Southern Utah’s drop could be due to the fact that their schedule this year sets up to be much tougher than last year with having both BYU and Utah on their schedule, plus having to play Montana, Montana State, and Northern Arizona. They also lose their quarterback, Ammon Olsen, who had a terrific 2015 season for the Thunderbirds. They do return their top running back Malik Brown, and top receiver Mike Sharp.

The case for Northern Arizona at the top isn’t too hard to see. Case Cookus is a pretty big deal in Flagstaff and should easily be in contention for player of the year come end of the season (along with Cooper Kupp) barring any kind of injury. The amazing thing about Cookus is that he’s only going to be a sophomore. Cookus’s favorite target will also be back, Emmanuel Butler. Butler was a third team FCS All-American last year for the Lumberjacks.

The Lumberjacks finished at 7-4 last season. Their best wins coming over Stephen F Austin and Eastern Washington. This year’s schedule shouldn’t prove to be too difficult. They open at Arizona State, then travel to Western Illinois, then a pair of home contests with Eastern Washington and New Mexico Highlands. They also have Montana at home. If they can clear a few hurdles they can win the conference. The showdown with Montana in late October might be the game of the year in the Big Sky.

An interesting pick here is Northern Colorado near the bottom of the conference standings. Last year the Bears finished at 6-5. The media seems to think the Bears may have peaked last year and will regress this year. Given UNC’s history I can’t say that’s too big of a surprise. Were the Bears a one year wonder, comparatively to the rest of their Big Sky history? The Bears return their leading rusher, passer, and receiver, as well as two of their top sack leaders from last year. Their schedule is basically a buzz saw of the Big Sky’s best, plus a trip to Fort Collins to play the Rams. The media might be right here.

There are realistically four teams that could claim stake to the conference title this season. Those being Montana, Portland State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona. North Dakota could be a dark horse in there as their schedule sets up for them nicely, much like Southern Utah last season.

For my personal hot takes on the Big Sky this season I don’t know if I can buy the hype on Northern Arizona yet. They return some terrific offensive weapons, but like many Big Sky teams, their defense is god awful. While that might be nice enough to win the league, it will also mean getting housed in the playoffs. Eastern Washington will continue to do what they do, score a lot of points and hope they can outscore the team on the other side of the field. An interesting strategy. It would be an interesting experiment if Eastern attempted to play some defense. If that was the case they could be a playoff noise maker.

I would like to think that Montana has a legitimate shot at winning the conference but they will be replacing the majority of their defense and look like they will be without starting corner JR Nelson for the first six games due to suspension. Bob Stitt will need to figure out how to keep the offense going into a power outage when facing tougher defenses, as we saw against Weber State and the second game against North Dakota State.

Portland State seems like a good candidate to win the Big Sky, in my opinion. The Vikings have a schedule that will set them up for success, they return many pieces from last season, and Bruce Barnum seems to have them trending very high upwards. They might be the most balanced team in the conference. They will need to win one of their two FBS games to get into the seeding of the playoffs.

Sorry, I don’t buy the hype on North Dakota, despite having a very good running back in John Santiago. They will need to do many other things well to win this thing. They still have to win the games on their schedule.

Since you’re all dying to know, here’s how I see the conference shaking out:

1. Portland State
2. Montana
3. Eastern Washington
4. Northern Arizona
5. Weber State
6. North Dakota
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana State
9. Northern Colorado
10. Cal Poly
11. Idaho State
12. Sacramento State
13. UC-Davis

Over the next two or three weeks I’ll be previewing each Big Sky team individually. After you read the individual previews the above will probably make more sense, but until then I’m just going to leave you guys in suspense, just like a skinnier George R.R. Martin.