SLC: Week 12 Preview

Well 11 is in the books with Houston Baptist beating SFA 31-24, UCA stopping the Colonels march and getting the win 31-24, and Southeastern over Abilene Christian 31-19. As predicted, we had a Cardinal win on Saturday, with the Incarnate Word Cardinals beating the Lamar Cardinals 35-28, and not surprisingly, Sam demolished Northwestern State 48-16.

Now, we have reached the final week of the regular season with the match up that everyone has wanted to see between Central Arkansas and Sam Houston. Unfortunately for teams who made good runs (Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese) their season will probably come to an end this week.

Before we go into the week 12 predictions, I wanted to take a moment to thank you, the readers, for taking a few minutes out of your day to read my non-Pulitzer prize winning work. Your support here, plus for the other columns, and the FCS Wedge is just what we need at the FCS level of football. Hopefully, I’ll get to come back next year and do this again, but know that it was a pleasure to do it for you this year.

One last time, without further ado, it’s time for the week 12 “Rev”-elations.

=====

Southeastern Louisiana at Nicholls State

It’s River Bell week in Southeastern Louisiana as the Lions head to Thibodaux to face the Colonels. This is a great rivalry to watch in the Southland as the schools are 80 miles apart and usually put on a good show for the River Bell Trophy. This year has bigger implications as Southeastern Louisiana needs this win in order to have an outside shot at an at-large bid in the playoffs. The Lions would finish 7-4 (7-2) and losses to Southern Utah and Lamar might hurt their chances to play over Thanksgiving weekend. The Colonels have the chance to finish at over .500 for the first time in nearly a decade, and would end up with a very impressive 6-3 finish in the Southland Conference. Their defense should be strong enough to put a stop to the Lion offense, and I think the River Bell stays in Thibodaux, and crushed playoff dreams live in Hammond, as the Colonels win 24-21.

=====

Houston Baptist at Incarnate Word

Can we start calling this game the “Holy War”? I’m open to suggestions for this one. Houston Baptist coming in after beating the Lumberjacks, and, no matter the result of this week’s game, will have had their most successful season of football since starting the program, with a potential 5-6 finish on the line in San Antonio. For UIW, this hasn’t been the season to remember, with losses to D2 A&M-Kingsville amongst their woes, but the school has the money to grow and develop their program at the FCS level. As for this game, I think the Huskies take the win, beating Incarnate Word 28-17.

=====

Central Arkansas at Sam Houston State

Here it is folks, your Southland Conference Game of the Week and Game of the Year wrapped up in one. Central Arkansas comes in to this game barely getting past Nicholls state, and they are looking to go undefeated in the conference, win the championship, and get a potential seed in the playoffs. This, without a doubt, is one of the best teams UCA has fielded, and regardless of outcome, they’ll be playing in the post season and have the potential to go deep in the playoffs. One issue they have is that they tend to start games very slowly, and Sam could use this to their advantage. Sam comes in to this beating the hapless Demons, and they are trying to show the Playoff Committee that if they win, they deserve the top seed over schools like EWU, JSU, and NDSU. There has been zero question of Sam’s offensive prowess. Jeremiah Briscoe has shown that he flat out deserves the Payton award for his performance this year, and they have so many weapons in their arsenal. Sam’s secondary is their only weakness, and it will be interesting to see if UCA can contain Sam’s front seven and exploit the secondary.

This is a tough game to call, but I have to go with Sam Houston on this. If UCA starts slow, Sam could jump to a big lead that UCA won’t be able to catch up from, and I think that happens. Sam wins 41-31.

=====

Lamar at McNeese

It’s the Battle of the Border as the Cardinals cross the Sabine River and head to Lake Charles. For Lamar, the wheels are falling of the bus, and they are limping their way through the rest of the season. It will be interesting to see how Lamar rebounds for the 2017 campaign, and hopefully they put together a competitive team, as the Southland needs it. McNeese has had their own ups and down this year and there haven’t been many reasons to sway and clap. If McNeese gets the win, they will finish 6-5, and you know they will be back in the title hunt in 2017. McNeese wins big 35-18.
=====

Northwestern State at Stephen F Austin

It’s the Battle for Chief Caddo, the tallest trophy in NCAA Division 1 football, as the Demons head to Nacogdoches to face the Jacks. For both teams, this has been a season to forget. Northwestern State has the potential to end the season without a win in conference and against Division 1 competition, period. For SFA, after a loss to Houston Baptist, it’s hard to imagine that Clint Conque keeps his job, even if they beat Northwestern State, given that he will finish the past two seasons with sub .500 records. While SFA has the talent, the quarterback by committee design failed. For how bad SFA has been this year, the Demons are worse and I think Chief Caddo will like his home in Nacogdoches, as SFA wins 42-17.

=====

Patriot League: Week 11 Review and Power Rankings

The penultimate week in the Patriot League saw the Fordham Rams easily take care of Holy Cross in The Ram-Crusader Cup at Yankee Stadium. The combination of QB Kevin Anderson and RB Chase Edmonds proved far too difficult to stop for the Holy Cross defense. Like Fordham, Colgate road their experienced signal caller, Jake Melville, to an easy victory this weekend. Lafayette’s defense had no answer for Melville’s running and passing in the Raiders 21 point win. In the final game of the weekend Bucknell outlast Georgetown 20-7 in Washington D.C. The Bison offense was led by Joey DeFloria’s sixth 100 yard rushing game of the season.

Colgate 38 Lafayette 17

Colgate (4-5, 3-2) took one step closer to finishing the 2016 campaign with a .500 record by downing Lafayette (2-8, 1-4) 38-17 on a cool, crisp November afternoon in Hamilton, NY. Jake Melville led the way for the Raider’s offense with arguably his best game of the year. The senior QB rushed for 141 yards (1 TD) and threw for another 202 yards (2 TDs) in the victory. Melville’s 202 passing yards moved him to 5th on Colgate’s all-time passing list with 5,640 yards. The Colgate defense also stepped up with another impressive performance. They sacked Drew Reed 7 times and limited the Leopards to 47 net yards rushing. With Georgetown’s struggling offense on tap next week, Colgate’s rush defense has an excellent chance to finish ranked in the Top 3 in the country for the year.

While Colgate has turned their season around in recent weeks, Lafayette’s misery has continued on into November. The Leopard’s issues along the offensive line continue to plague them. Drew Reed has spent most of the year scrambling for his life while the Lafayette running backs have been hurling themselves into a brick wall week after week due to the ineffectiveness of the OL.

The Leopard offense once again got off to a slow start (32 total yards on first 4 drives) on Saturday. The Raiders on the other hand were able put points on the board on their first two drives of the game. John Wilkins (8 carries 59 yards 2 TDs) 1 yards TD plunge finished off an impressive 7 play 65 yard opening drive for Colgate. Jonah Bowman’s 39 yard FG on the Raider’s next possession gave Colgate a 10-0 lead with a little over a minute left in the 1st quarter.

Colgate extended their lead to 17-0 on Melville’s 19 yard TD pass to Owen Rockett (4 rec 93 yard 1 TD) midway through the 2nd quarter. Lafayette would finally put together a promising drive but on 4th and 1 at the Colgate 19 yard line Drew Reed’s pass fell incomplete to end the threat. The Raiders offense would take advantage of the momentum with their 3rd touchdown drive of the game. Melville found Nick Martinsen for a 12 yard TD strike to finish off a brisk 5 play 81 yard drive that took a little over 91 seconds off the clock. Lafayette would finally get on the board on their final possession of the half. Drew Reed (24-41 202 yards 1 TD) went 5-6 passing the ball including a 36 yard TD strike to Rocco Palumbo with a little over a minute left in the first half.

Lafayette would carry the momentum over from the late first half TD out of the locker room with a safety on Colgate’s first offensive possession to close the deficit to 24-9. Following Colgate’s free kick the Leopard offense once again got things going. This time Lafayette turned to RB DeShaun Brown (15 carries 91 yards 1 TD) to lead the way. The junior had 43 yards rushing on the drive. He finished it off by plowing into the end zone from a yard out. Lafayette’s 2 point attempt would be successful which cut the Colgate lead to 27-17 with 11:00 left in the 3rd quarter.

Colgate’s defense would make sure the Leopards would get no closer the rest of the way by holding Lafayette to 54 total yards rest of the game. The Raider offense finally got things going late in the 3rd with a 3 play 44 yard drive that ended with a 24 yard Melville TD run. Colgate would tack on one more TD midway through the 4th quarter to close out the scoring.

UP Next: Colgate will try to even their record at 5-5 when they host Georgetown to close out the 2016 season. Lafayette will try to salvage their season against Lehigh when the two clash for the 152nd time next week in Easton.

Fordham 54 Holy Cross 14

Fordham (7-3, 4-1) continued their late season playoff push with an emphatic 40 point route of Holy Cross (4-7, 2-4) in front of 21,375 people at Yankee Stadium. The win gives Fordham a 16-15 all-time lead in The Ram-Crusader Cup. It was Fordham’s first win at Yankee Stadium (then the old Yankee Stadium) since 1941. The Rams are now at 13-8-1 at the home of the Bronx Bombers. The win was also highlighted by Chase Edmonds Patriot League record breaking 58th and 59th career TD. The Fordham junior passed former Colgate RB Jordan Scott’s mark of 57 career TDs that was set in 2008.

Holy Cross’s attempt to end their disappointing 2016 season on a positive note did not come to fruition. The Crusaders were outgunned from the start of the game and were never able to mount a serious bid to make the game competitive. It proved to be a continuation of Holy Cross’s struggles against the top teams in the Patriot League this year. The Crusaders were outscored by a combined 126-36 against Colgate, Fordham and Lehigh on the season.

It didn’t take long for the Crusaders to find themselves in a hole against Fordham. The Rams received the opening kickoff and proceeded to go on a 6 play 68 yard TD drive in 2:42. Chase Edmonds (23 carries 119 yards 4 TDs) capped the drive by racing around the edge for a 41 yard TD. The Rams offense would get rolling again following a defensive stop. Edmonds 1 yard TD dive with 7:25 left in the 1st quarter capped an 8 play 67 yard drive. Holy Cross would get to Fordham’s 24 yard line on their second possession of the game before being stopped on a 4th and 3. Following the defensive stand, the Ram offense once again would prove to be too difficult to stop. Kevin Anderson (28-34 426 yards 3 TDs) would go 4-4 on Fordham’s third TD drive of the game. The Marshall transfer hit Jorge Solano for a 27 yard score to finish off the drive. The score extended the Fordham lead to 21-0 with 2:06 left in the first quarter.

The Rams made it 27-0 (failed XP) midway through the 2nd quarter on Edmonds third TD of the game. Holy Cross would finally break through on their ensuing possession. Geoff Wade (21-36 307 1 TD) connected with Lacy Darrius for a 55 yard gain to set up the Crusaders with a 1st and goal at the Ram 8 yard line. Holy Cross RB Diquan Walker would find pay dirt on the next play to cut the Ram lead to 27-7. The Crusader momentum would be short lived as Anderson and Co. would put together a 7 play 75 yard TD drive to push the Ram lead to 33-7 (failed 2 pt try). Holy Cross would make into the Fordham red zone again on their next possession but on 4th and 15 from the Ram 17 Wade’s pass fell incomplete. Fordham’s offense would once again march down the field. Anderson’s short 2 yard TD toss to Robbi Cantelli (5 rec 70 yards 1 TD) finished off a fast paced 8 play 83 yard drive that lasted a little over a minute. The late first half TD gave Fordham a commanding 40-7 lead as the two teams headed into the Yankee Stadium locker room.

Holy Cross would cut the lead to 40-14 with a TD drive on their first possession of the second half. Geoff Wade hit Richie DeNicola for a 36 yard TD to close out the drive. The Rams would answer the Holy Cross score with a lengthy 5 minute TD drive that pushed the lead back to 33 points. Edmonds 4th rushing TD of the game midway through the 4th quarter closed out the scoring.

Up Next: Fordham will try to keep the playoff, and Patriot League title, hopes alive when they travel to Lewisburg to take on Bucknell. Holy Cross’s season ends with an extremely disappointing 4-7 record. Tom Gilmore’s status as head coach seems to be tenuous at best at this point.

Bucknell 20 Georgetown 7

Bucknell (4-6, 3-2) overcame their disappointing loss to Lehigh last weekend by dispatching of Georgetown (3-7, 0-5) 20-3 in a game that resembled a UFC brawl at Madison Square Garden. With two stout defenses on display, the game figured to be a low scoring slugfest and it was. Bucknell limited the Georgetown offense to 9 first downs and 33 net yards rushing on the day.

The Hoya defense also did a good job for the most part by holding the Bucknell “O” to 295 total yards. The only player they couldn’t get a beat on was Bison RB Joey DeFloria (31 carries 150 yards 2 TDs). Freshman QB John Chiarolanzio surprisingly got the start for Bucknell rather than senior R.J. Nitti. Nitti ( 4-7 41 yards) did see action during the game so he wasn’t held out due to injury. The Bison and Hoyas combined for 13 punts on the day.

Georgetown’s offense had been treading water since league play started and Saturday was no different. The rushing attack (33 net yards) continues to offer very little productivity for the Hoyas. The passing game was once again plagued by multiple interceptions (3) and only one TD pass. Georgetown has the worst passing TD to INT ratio in the Patriot League by a wide margin.

Bucknell received the opening kickoff and proceeded to put together a promising drive before the Hoya defense came up with a big 4th and 7 stop at their 17 yard line to end the scoring threat. Neither team would mount any real offensive surge for the rest of the first quarter. It took until the Bison’s sixth possession of the game for the scoreboard to finally light up. Joey DeFloria’s 14 yard TD run capped off a grinding 8 play 67 yard drive that took over 4 minutes off the clock.

Georgetown got the ball to start the second half. On 2nd down Hoya QB Clay Norris (17-34 157 yards 1 TD 3 INTs) was intercepted by Bucknell’s Bryan Marine at the Hoya 32 yard line. It wasn’t easy, but 8 plays later the Bison took advantage of the excellent field position when Chad Freshnock muscled his way into the end zone from a yard out to extend the lead to 14-0 with 9:38 left in the 3rd quarter. The Hoyas offense would finally break through on their third possession of the second half when Clay Norris hit Jim McLaughlin for a 23 yard TD with 5:10 left in the 3rd quarter. Following the Hoya score, Bucknell’s defense preserved the 7 point lead until Joey DeFloria’s 28 yard TD run with a little over 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter put the game on ice.

Up Next: Bucknell will look to upset Fordham to close out the 2016 on a high note. The Bison have come close to defeating the Rams each of the last 3 years. Georgetown will try to end their 7 game losing streak when they travel to upstate New York to take on Colgate. The Hoyas have not defeated the Raiders since 2011.

Power Rankings

  1. Lehigh
  2. Fordham
  3. Colgate
  4. Bucknell
  5. Holy Cross
  6. Lafayette
  7. Georgetown

SOCON: Week 11 Review and Power Rankings

In a week of upsets all across the college football landscape, the SOCON was not immune.  Wofford, in a mild upset over Chattanooga, gave its playoff hopes a shot in the arm.  VMI gave The Citadel fits before the Bulldogs put it away to claim the Silver Shako once again.  Oh, they also claimed sole possession of the SOCON Championship with a perfect 8-0 conference record.  Samford almost let Mercer come back on them, but held on the secure a likely playoff berth.  Furman racked up another win, this time over Western Carolina.  And ETSU was victorious over Cumberland, although it was a bit close for the Bucs.  The game reviews are bit shorter compared to my usual summaries.  Sorry, am under the gun with family commitments.

#22 Wofford 36  #7 Chattanooga 28 (box score)

Wofford needed to win and they did.  Now at 7-3, the Terriers are most likely playoff bound with a win next week.

Wofford did what they do best, they ran and used up clock time. They totaled 247 yards on the ground and they held back a late rally by Chattanooga.

Chattanooga scored on its first drive of the day. But Wofford scored right back with a 100 yard kickoff return. It went a back and forth in the first quarter, but Wofford went up early in the second quarter and maintained the lead from there. Chattanooga continued to nip at their heels but could not close the gap. A late fourth quarter field goal by Wofford put the gap at 8 and although the Mocs made it deep into Wofford territory with seconds remaining, they could not score.

Alejandro Bennifield went 19/32 for 177 yards for the Mocs with 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. The stingy Terrier defense held the Mocs to only 88 yards on the ground. The Terriers also forced a safety on the Mocs.

Brandon Goodson went 6/11 for 95 yards and 1 TD.  On the ground for the Terriers, Lorenzo Long led with 123 yards.

The win put Wofford in position for at large playoff berth. Chattanooga who was in position for a possible seed and an opening bye week in the playoffs, mostly likely lost any hope of a seed.

Wofford faces VMI next week on the road and Chattanooga will travel to Tuscaloosa to face FBS #1 Alabama.

#4 The Citadel 30  VMI 20 (box score)

With this victory, in addition to retaining the Silver Shako, The Citadel completed a perfect 8-0 season in SOCON play.  VMI did not make it easy.  They pulled out a bunch of gadget plays and caught the Bulldogs flatfooted with them.  On one play, the Keydets executed a double reverse, lateral back to the QB and pass.  I think 5 guys touched the ball on that play.  But The Citadel ground out some long drives late to put it away.

The Bulldogs actually rested at least 3 of their starters in this game including a couple of their running backs and a WR (aka blocker).  It showed.  Couple that with a stubborn VMI defense that held the Dogs to 233 yards on the ground and the Keydets made a game of it. But the Dogs also passed for a season high with Dominique Allen going 6/14 for 133 yards and 1 TD.  Unfortunately for the Dogs, they also suffered their first sack of the season this game.  It came on a blitz.  Allen also led the Dogs in rushing yards with 113.

VMI has some serious issues at QB. With Cobb still out, Austin Coulling started, but he was knocked out of the game with a possible concussion.  Before he left he went 5/7 for 33 yards.  Oh yeah, he also caught a TD pass from WR Ryan Swingle.  Jake Paladino came in to replace Coulling and did a very good job for the Keydets.  He went 9/13 for 100 yards and 1 TD.  The Dogs held the Keydets to 82 yards rushing.

One aspect of the game which VMI did very well in was sustaining drives and chewing up clock.  They held it over 32 minutes which turned the tables on the Dogs.  It was also a fairly sloppy game for the Dogs.  They lost one fumble and also had 8 penalties for 82 yards which did not help their cause.

VMI hosts Wofford next week.  The Citadel travels to Chapel Hill to face FBS top 25 UNC.

#14 Samford 24 Mercer 19 (box score)

Usually if a team outscores an opponent 21-0 in the first quarter, they would be expected to win easily. That is, unless you are playing Mercer. They have a habit of not giving up. That is what happened Saturday. Samford went up 21-0 after one quarter and fought to hang on 24-19.

After three successful drives Samford suffered 4 punts and 2 fumbles before scoring a field goal in the fourth. Samford QB Devlin Hodges still went 39/43 for 401 with 3 TD and no interceptions, which is pretty ridiculous. Mercer held Samford to just 54 yards on the ground.

For Mercer, John Russ went just 13/30 for 183 yards and 1 TD. But he went huge on the ground with 185 yards as well. Mercer held the ball for over 38 minutes which seems to be the best way to beat Samford. Keep the ball away from Hodges. It almost worked.

The win puts Samford at 7-3 and in a good position for an at large playoff berth. The Bulldogs face ETSU on the road next week. Mercer hosts Furman.

Furman 49 Western Carolina 21 (box score)

The Furman Paladins did something Saturday they have not done in well over a year. They won at home. And they did it in a big way. They racked up over 600 yards of offense. This is a team that was averaging under 300 yards a game after their first four games.

Furman’s QB Reese Hannon went 15/21 for 232 yards and 1 TD. On the ground Furman’s Kealand Dirks and Antonio Wilcox both had 100 yard days with 171 and 105 respectively.

Down 14-13 at half, Furman exploded in the second half for 22 points in the third.

WCU’s QB Tyrie Adams had a good day. He went 19/27 for 295 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions. The Catamounts gave up two fumbles on the day. Western’s Detrez Newsome got 56 yards rushing and 2 TDs on 9 tries.

Furman’s defense made a couple stops, but it was really their offense which won them this game. It may have come out of hibernation finally. Or it could be WCU’s defense is sliding deeper into despair. They trail the SOCON in yards given up at 516 a game.

It will not get any easier for the Catamounts as they face FBS South Carolina next week. Furman travels to Macon to face the Mercer Bears.

ETSU 23  Cumberland 16 (box score)

It should have been an easy victory for the ETSU Bucs against NAIA Cumberland. It wasn’t. Cumberland scored on its first two possessions. The Bucs scored on their first three. But Cumberland got a bonus when ETSU had their last XP blocked and Cumberland returned it for 2. ETSU tacked on a field goal late in the second and that was the end of the scoring for the game.  It was all defense from there.

ETSU’s Austin Herink went 11/20 for 163 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions. The Cumberland QB, Justin Snyder went 22/36 for 226 yards and gave ETSU’s defense fits most of the night. Jajuan Stinson had 114 yards for the Bucs. Cumberland managed just 116 yards on the ground.

ETSU probably relaxed just a bit for this game when they should have stepped up, especially on defense.

The Bucs host Samford next week and the wicked arm of Devlin Hodges.

Power Rankings

1 – The Citadel – Conference Champions – 8-0

2 – Wofford

3 – Samford

4 – Chattanooga

5 – Furman

6 – Mercer

7 – VMI

8 – Western Carolina

9 – ETSU

MVFC: Week 11 Preview

MVFC LogoMissed last week’s review this time, so here’s just a quick update on that.

MVFC Week 10 Game Scores:

Northern Iowa – 39
Indiana State – 6
UNI WR Marcus Weymiller ran for 171 yards and RB Michael Malloy got 3 rushing TDs. ISUb’s offense held to 201 yards and 0 TDs total and threw 2 interceptions.

Illinois State – 31
Western Illinois – 26
ISUr QB Jake Kolbe passes for 265 yards and 4 TDs and WIU QB Sean McGuire passes for 312 and 2 TDs, but 1 interception.

South Dakota – 28
Southern Illinois – 35
SIU looks to the future, starting Sophomore QB Sam Straub over the Senior transfer that had been starting most of the season. Straub throws for 339 yards and 2 TDs and rushes for 68 and a TD. USD’s talented QB Chris Streveler throws for 219, 2 TDs, and 2 interceptions and runs for 113 yards and 1 TD.

Missouri State – 24
South Dakota State – 49
SDSU’s run game sees 4 different players get rushing TDs (6 total between the 4) and QB Taryn Christion passes for another. SDSU WR Jake Wieneke and Dallas Goedert both top 100+ yards receiving.

Youngstown State – 3
North Dakota State – 24
NDSU QB Easton Stick only passes for 89 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception, but the run game more than makes up for it, picking up 2 more TDs. The YSU offense performs as expected, notching 1 32-yard FG in the second quarter.

How’d I do against last week’s picks?….

Predicted UNI by 15, actual result is UNI by 33 – W
Predicted WIU by 7, actual result is ISUr by 5 – L
Predicted USD by 13, actual result is SIU by 7 – L
Predicted SDSU by 30, actual result is SDSU by 25 – W
Predicted NDSU by 4, actual result is NDSU by 21 – W
Went 3-2 this week, so I’m now I’m 21-12 for picking MVFC games this season.

Playoff Picture:

Current standings in the conference are…

#2 NDSU: 5-1, 8-1
#10 SDSU: 5-1, 6-3
#15 YSU: 4-2, 6-3
#21 WIU: 3-3, 6-3
#30 UNI: 3-3, 4-5
USD: 3-3, 4-5
#28 ISUr: 3-4, 5-5
MSU: 2-4, 4-5
ISUb: 2-5, 4-6
SIU: 1-5, 3-6

If we consider 7 wins to be the “threshold” for playoff consideration then here’s what the teams need to do to have a shot at the playoffs (outside of the conference autobid):

NDSU – already reached 7+ wins
SDSU – need to win 1 out of 2
YSU – need to win 1 out of 2
WIU – need to win 1 out of 2
UNI – can only reach 6 wins
USD – can only reach 6 wins
ISUr – can only reach 6 wins
MSU – can only reach 5 DI wins (one win over NAIA school)
ISUb – can only reach 5 wins
SIU – can only reach 5 wins

So, NDSU is in the playoffs, they’re just playing for seeding now.
SDSU, YSU, and WIU each need at least 1 win in their last 2 games to be likely in the playoffs.
Everyone else is probably outside looking in, although UNI and ISUr both have an outside shot at playoffs if they win out, being 6-5 and both having wins over P5 FBS teams.

On to the games…

This week, we have:

Southern Illinois at #15 Youngstown State @ 11 AM
Missouri State at #28 Illinois State @ 12 PM
#30 Northern Iowa at #21 Western Illinois @1 PM
South Dakota at #10 South Dakota State @ 2 PM
Indiana State at #2 North Dakota State @ 2:30 PM

Southern Illinois at #15 Youngstown State

SIU is well out of the playoff picture at this point, but could still play spoiler to the Penguins, who need to win 1 more game (out of their final 2) to have a solid shot at the playoffs. This one’s going to be interesting. The Salukis have the FCS’s 8th best passing offense, which appears to have only gotten better when they went with Sophomore QB Sam Straub last week. They’ll have to match up with the FCS’s 9th best passing defense at YSU. The Saluki’s don’t have a great run game, however, which could be an issue against the excellent Penguin run defense. When YSU has the ball, the offense is…well….anemic. Their run game is decent, putting up over 200 yards per game on the ground, but their passing game is horrible, accounting for less than 160 yards per game, which is in the bottom 20 of all FCS teams. Luckily for YSU, the SIU pass defense is also pretty bad and their run defense isn’t great (7th in the conference).

The YSU defense is one of the best in the FCS in keeping opposing teams from scoring, but also one of the worst at scoring themselves. SIU is much more balanced, although their offense is a little bit better than their defense overall. I think we’ll see quite a bit of pressure on the young SIU QB (in only his second ever start) and he’ll struggle…couple of interceptions, maybe 3-4 sacks. The YSU offense will be able to put up just enough points to get past SIU, mostly on the ground.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 6

Missouri State at #28 Illinois State @ 12 PM

The Bears are also out of the playoff picture, although the Redbirds have an outside shot at an at-large spot if they win this game dominantly and get lucky with some other key “bubble team” losses. They’d be at 6-5 with wins over probable playoff teams SDSU and WIU, as well as the Big 10’s Northwestern, and they would have won the last 3 straight to end the season. It’s probably not hugely likely, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

ISU is ranking slightly ahead of MSU in most areas. They’re very good at not getting penalized and have one of the better pass defenses in the conference. MSU’s offense is currently last in the conference, and generally geared more towards the passing game, although they have thrown 14 interceptions this season, which is worst in the conference.

The other thing is that ISU is just flat-out playing good football right now. Back-to-back weeks with wins over decently ranked teams (SDSU and at WIU). You can argue that the refs helped them out with the SDSU game, but they did get themselves into a position to win both times. The other thing is that sometimes you’ll see teams looking past some of the bottom teams towards the next week’s opponent. This won’t be an issue with ISU, since they have their bye week next weekend, and they need another win to hold on to their (admittedly very slim) playoff hopes. MSU meanwhile is playing on the road, with not much to play for beyond bragging rights. I think ISU will do fine in this game and spend next weekend watching a lot of football on TV and rooting against some other playoff “bubble” teams.

TL:DR – Illinois State by 11

#30 Northern Iowa at #21 Western Illinois

Around the middle in the season, when I was looking at the schedule and what WIU would probably have to do to make the playoffs (win 1 out of the last 3 games against ISUr, UNI, or SIU) I was thinking that it shouldn’t be a problem, since none of the three teams were playing great football and at that point, WIU had only lost one. I’m definately a lot more nervous now that we’re nearing the end of the season. WIU struggled against Illinois State and lost, and UNI has been playing pretty well now that they’ve found an offense. UNI is kinda in the same position as Illinois State, needing to win out to have a slim chance at the playoffs (it’d be a harder road for UNI though, having to beat WIU and then SDSU, whereas ISU just has the one game vs Missouri State left).

It’s kinda hard to just look at stats with Northern Iowa on the offensive side of the ball, since they’ve essentially run 3 different offenses so far this season. The first 6 games, they were running QB Aaron Bailey…and I do mean running, as he was averaging 71 yards per game and had 6 rushing TDs in those 6 games. So…strong run game, but Bailey didn’t really pass much or put up huge yardage through the air (147 yards per game). After dropping to 2-4 on the season after the loss at YSU, they put in sophomore QB Eli Dunne as the starter. Dunne immediately made an impact, throwing for an average of 317 yards and 2 TDs per game over two games, although he did throw 4 INTs against NDSU. Then last weekend, with Dunne out with an injury, they went with a couple of other backup QBs, but actually seemed to do their most damage by direct snapping to WR Marcus Weymiller in the wildcat formation, who rushed for 171 yards. This is even more impressive due to him not touching the ball until around halfway through the 2nd quarter. This week, however, it looks like Dunne will be back at the starting QB spot, but with a newfound option of direct snapping to Weymiller, in addition to the passing ability of Dunne…UNI has suddenly become a rather dangerous offense.

Meanwhile, the UNI defense has rolled along consistently as one of the best in the conference behind only Youngstown State. They have the best player in the FCS at sacks (DL Karter Schult) and are the second best team in the FCS at snagging interceptions.

Western Illinois has had a fairly solid offense mostly, generally set up to go to the pass more often than running the ball, but with transfer RB Jamie Gilmore picking up steam and the talent of Steve McShane, defenses can’t ignore that side of things either. The Leatherneck O-line is also the best in the conference at preventing sacks. Defensively, however, Western has struggled, especially against teams with a good passing game, giving up ~290 yards per game just through the air, mostly through long passing plays. Special teams has also been an issue at times recently, with 5 blocked kicks and a blocked punt allowed this season.

I think that Western could win this game (and I really hope they do), but I think that the advantage is with Northern Iowa right now. That being said, I think that Coach Fisher will have the guys ready to come out and play right off the bat (something they did not do against Illinois State). They’re practically in “playoff mode” already, since I’m not sure 7-5 would be a secure spot if it included losses to a couple of possible 6-5 teams (ISUr and UNI)…that’s assuming they win at SIU next weekend. So a win against UNI would really help solidify their playoff hopes. I realize it’s a “homer” pick, but I think that we’ll finally put together a mostly “full game” and pull off the minor upset in a close, but high scoring game.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 4

South Dakota at #10 South Dakota State

South Dakota started off the conference season well, winning their first three straight, but then losing the last two against WIU and at SIU. Now probably the toughest part of their schedule is up, with games against SDSU and NDSU to finish out the regular season. I think their playoff hopes are essentially gone, although if they did pull off wins against SDSU and NDSU, then they’d be at 6-5 with those wins and very close losses to likely playoff teams North Dakota, YSU, and WIU. They do have an ugly loss against a bad SIU team last week though, and no FBS win to help counteract that. Meanwhile SDSU is already at 6 wins, but would like to win out and possibly snag a top 8 seed in the playoffs. This is also a rivalry game, sometimes called the South Dakota Showdown Series), with this weekend being the 110th meeting and the overall series actually being tied at 52-52-7.

Statistically, SDSU has the advantage in most categories, with the best offense in the conference, although USD is #2. SDSU has a much better passing game, with QB Taryn Christion passing to probably the best WR in conference history (at least statistically) Jake Wieneke, and likely the best TE currently in the FCS, Dallas Goedert. Both players have 10 or more TDs and 1000+ yards receiving this season (they’re the only two players in the conference with over 1000 yards already). USD’s offense is a bit more balanced, although is stronger in their run game, with the #3 and #5 rushers in the conference. #3 is their QB Chris Streveler, who last week threw for 219 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 113 yards and 1 TD, although did throw 2 interceptions in the loss to SIU.

Defensively, neither team is great against the run, being the last two teams in the conference at giving up yards on the ground, but SDSU’s pass defense is fairly solid. USD has the advantage over SDSU (and really, over nearly every FCS team) in the kicking game, with K/P Miles Bergner being #1 in the FCS in punting average, #3 in the FCS in FGs per game and is a perfect 9 for 9 on FGs less than 40 yards, 4 for 5 in the 40 range and 1 for 3 in the 50+ range.

I think that generally, you can throw out “expected” results when it comes to big rivalry games, but I just don’t think USD will be able to stop SDSU’s offense enough to keep up with them. I think the scores will be high (maybe combined 70-80), but SDSU will pull away enough to win by a bit.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 10

Indiana State at #2 North Dakota State

ISU is out of the playoff picture now, since they’re at 4 wins and only have this game left to finish out their season. NDSU meanwhile is aiming to finish out their season strong and grab a top seed for the playoffs giving them homefield advantage.

Indiana State has had a few bright spots in their somewhat disappointing season. QB Isaac Harker is #2 in the conference in passing yards with a bit under 2,600 and #2 in passing TDs with 19. They are also the best team in the conference at recovering fumbles. Unfortunately they’re also the worst team in the conference at losing fumbles and at intercepting passes. They also have the worst rushing offense in the MVFC.

North Dakota State, meanwhile, is very good at their run game, on both sides of the ball….#1 in the conference in both rushing offense and their run defense. They don’t pass a ton (QB Easton Stick runs for ~40 yards per game), but they’ve got multiple options for running the ball that are very good, so they don’t often need to, preferring to just keep pounding away on the ground to get their offensive yardage. When they do pass, they generally do it in short bits, but are selective, with the 2nd best passing efficiency in the conference. Overall, this means that they nearly always pick up some positive yards on every play and rarely end up on the “wrong” side of the line of scrimmage…they’re #4 in the FCS and best in the conference at not allowing tackles for loss.

So…on one hand a team that has struggled this year, with not much to play for outside of garnering a bit of respect, and playing away at one of the toughest and loudest stadiums in the FCS. On the other, one of the best teams in the country, playing near the end of the season (when they always play their best) at home, and fighting for a top playoff seed. I’m afraid I don’t really see this one being very close. NDSU put up 24 points against probably the best defense in the conference (YSU) last weekend, so I think they could easily reach 40. Meanwhile, they’ve been holding some pretty good offenses to the 13-20 point range. I don’t see ISU getting past 14 points probably.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 26

OVC: Week 11 Preview

Eastern Kentucky (2-7, 1-5 OVC) @  Austin Peay (0-9, 0-7 OVC) 5PM EST (OVCDN)

Well this is it for Austin Peay.  Will they get a win before the end of the season? We will know tomorrow night (because they have zero chance of beating Kentucky next weekend). The Gov’s will host a Colonels team that has been plagued with inconsistent play all year.  The Colonels have had trouble with the running game, the defense, and most notably, quarterback play.  Colonel’s QB Bennie Coney comes into the penultimate game of the season having thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (8) and the Gov’s will look to take advantage of the Colonel’s inconsistency to come away with the upset that will snap their 25 game losing streak.  Expect the Govs to spread the field on offense and use their ability to pass to open up the running game.  The challenge for the Colonels will be not beating themselves and playing a complete game.

Prediction: Austin Peay pulls off the upset in a close one thanks to a couple EKU turnovers.

Southeast Missouri State (3-6, 2-1 OVC) @ Tennessee-Martin (6-4, 2-3 OVC) 3PM EST (OVCDN)

If UT-Martin wants a shot at the playoffs this game is a must win. If the Skyhawks can win out they will unseat JSU from the OVC championship thus giving them the conference auto-bid to the playoffs but first thing is first, they must beat SEMO.  SEMO is coming into this game after starring in an ugly episode of Last Chance U with Jacksonville State.  The Redhawks will likely come into the game looking to ruin someone’s season and will be out for blood.  However they will have a hard time containing Troy Cook and UT-Martins potent offense.  The Skyhawks have been leading the OVC in scoring offense and have been able to move the ball on everyone they’re played, including their FBS opponents. If the Skyhawks can slow down SEMO’s rushing attack they should be able to roll into Jacksonville next week with a shot at the OVC title.

 

Prediction: Troy Cook exposes SEMO’s defense and the Skyhawks win handily.

#3 Jacksonville State (8-1, 5-0 OVC) @ Murray State (2-4, 1-2 OVC) 2PM EST(OVCDN)

Most people will looking at this game and thinking “ahh it’s just Murray State”  however, this team will probably be the toughest conference game JSU has faced so far this season. Why? Well JSU’s defense has been the story this year for the Cocks.  JSU has been riding their defense to win after win as the season rolls on and the run defense is spectacular and if this defense has a “weakness” it’s in pass coverage.  That said, JSU has ranked as the fifth hardest team to pass on based on opponent passer rating.  However if there is a squad that can expose a secondary, it’s the Racers.  KD Humphries has been having another spectacular year as he’s thrown for 2600 yards (8th in the FCS) in 8 games with 20 TDs against just 8 interceptions.  He’s completing an impressive 66% of his passes and is ranked in the top 20 for FCS passer rating. Even though Humphries can be a weapon, his supporting cast isn’t nearly as lethal.  Humphries has been sacked 23 times in 8 games and will have his hands full with JSU’s pass rush.  I expect another strong defensive performance from the Gamecocks and it will be interesting to see if the offense can fix their penalty-fueled mediocrity.

Prediction:  Humphries spends most of the afternoon his back.  Cocks by two touchdowns.   

Tennessee Tech (3-6,3-3 OVC) @ Tennessee State (6-3, 3-2 OVC) 7PM EST (ESPN3)

Tennessee State still has a chance at the playoffs.  If they win out they will be an 8 win team.  However, their issue is their schedule which is pretty awful.  Like, Sam Houston State awful.  If the Tigers want to be considered for an at-large bid they need to ROLL the last two teams on their schedule and leave no doubt. Tech and SEMO should theoretically be wins by a solid margin and if TSU can deliver and the rest of the playoff field shakes down the right way the Tigers could sneak their way in but they have to win impressively. I expect the Tigers defense will do their best to get at Birdsong but I think Birdsong will give them all they want and then some.  Tennessee State needs a blowout but I expect a close one.  

Prediction: Birdsong’s performance leads Tech to a close win over the Tigers Nashville.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1111 – AGSFCSBTS

What is this now?   Sometimes, you just get a secret show.  This is just some behind the scenes stuff from this week’s show.  Pay no attention to it.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Patriot League: Week 11 Preview

The Ram-Crusader Cup at Yankee Stadium is the featured game this Saturday as we reach the penultimate week of Patriot League football. The historical meeting between Fordham and Holy Cross will be the second time in three years that two Patriot League institutions have played at the world famous baseball stadium. Lafayette and Lehigh held their 150th game there to close out the 2014 season. Fordham needs a win to keep their FCS playoff hopes alive. The Rams can also earn a split of the league title with two wins to close out the year and a Lafayette victory over Lehigh next week. This is Holy Cross’s last game of the year.

In other league action this weekend, Lafayette makes the 4 hour trek north to Hamilton, NY to take on Colgate. The Leopard and Raiders need to finish the year strong to help make up for what has been an otherwise disappointing 2016 campaign. The final game of the weekend, Bucknell at Georgetown, also sees a couple of squads whose season has seen its fair share of letdowns. The Bison had a chance to stake their claim at the Patriot League title but came up just short. Meanwhile, Georgetown hasn’t won in nearly two months. The Hoyas have been close recently but can’t put it all together. 2016 Patriot League champion Lehigh gets to enjoy a late season bye before heading to Easton to for their annual showdown with Lafayette next week.

Lafayette at Colgate – 12 Nov. 1:00 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

(Patriot League Network)

Colgate (3-5, 2-2) will try to keep their hopes of .500 season alive this weekend when they welcome Lafayette (2-7, 1-3) to what should be a chilly Andy Kerr Stadium. Both teams have suffered a disappointing season relative to preseason expectations. Colgate entered the year as the odds-on favorite to repeat as Patriot League champions while Lafayette hoped better health and 4 years of scholarships would be enough to improve upon last year’s dismal 1-10 record. Colgate has been hurt by a difficult schedule that resulted in several early season road games. It’s the 11th week of the season yet this will be only their 3rd home game. The Leopards have been hurt by poor offensive line play which has derailed the running game and a defense that gives up the most points per game (33.7) in the league.

A big reason for the number of points Lafayette gives up is their rush defense (256 ypg allowed). Unless the Leopards were able to make some adjustments during their bye week to tighten things up Colgate should find plenty of success for their ground attack. It’s fair to say that a weak run “D” is usually not a prerequisite to beat Colgate and their zone-read offense. The Raider QB (Jake Melville) and RB (Kenyon Washington) duo had it rolling last week against Fordham when they both went over 100 yards in the 24-20 loss. A similar type of performance on Saturday is certainly not out of the question given the Leopard’s leaky run “D”.

If Lafayette can muster up a defensive game plan to limit the rush and force Melville to throw more than he’d like the Leopards might have a chance to pull the upset. The senior QB has not thrown a touchdown pass or completed at least 50% of his passes since the Bucknell game in mid-October. Lafayette does possess the Patriot League’s top pass defense (160 ypg allowed) so there is reason to believe they can add to Melville’s recent misery through the air. The Leopard secondary is led by defensive back Jerry Powe (41 solo tackles, 9 TFL) who has emerged as arguably the top player in the Patriot League at his position. The sensational sophomore will likely be assigned to talented Colgate WR John Maddaluna (41 rec 719 yards).

The Leopards ability to move the ball will likely come down to Drew Reed and the passing game. The senior QB has had an up and down season statistically (203 ypg 9 TDs 9 INTs) but has been able to carry the ‘Pards offense on his back in the past. A big game from Reed will likely be needed on Saturday given the fact that Lafayette’s anemic rushing attack (71 ypg, 7th in the PL) will be trying to penetrate Colgate’s top ranked run defense (4th in FCS at 76 ypg allowed). The Raider run defense limited the leading rusher in the country, Chase Edmonds, to 73 yards last week. The Raiders held Fordham as a team to nearly 150 yards under their per-game average (244 ypg, 9th in FCS).

The rumors continue to circulate about Lafayette head coach Frank Tavani’s job status as the season nears a conclusion. The Leopards are destined to finish with their 7th straight losing season and will be a heavy underdog in the season finale against rival Lehigh next week. If the long tenured coach decides to step down on his own terms an announcement could be coming within the next few days.

Of Note: Colgate possesses a commanding 42-13-4 series lead. The Raiders have won 16 out of the last 20 meetings against the Leopards including 8 out of the last 10 in Hamilton. Colgate won last year’s matchup in Easton 28-19.

Fordham at Holy Cross – 12 Nov. 3:00 P.M. Yankee Stadium Bronx, NY

(Patriot League Network)

For the second time in the 30 year history of the Patriot League two members will play a football game at Yankee Stadium. Two years ago Lafayette and Lehigh played their historical 150th meeting in front of a sold out crowd at the stadium. Like that event 24 months ago, the 31st Ram-Crusader Cup at the baseball mecca in the Bronx will be a tremendous event for the Fordham and Holy Cross players, alums and fans.

While the Crusader and Ram faithful won’t pack the place, the two schools are anticipating an excellent turnout for the event. Fordham and Holy Cross had to guarantee they would sell out (which they did) their respective allotment of 7,500 tickets. With the weather forecast looking good and Fordham still in the playoff chase the attendance figure will probably be in the low 20,000 range. Another strong turnout might open the door for the Patriot League to host another event at Yankee Stadium. Being able to host college football games in the Big Apple at such an iconic stadium has been a tremendous boost for the league.

What would make the event even better is a classic game on the field. With the return of Holy Cross’s Geoff Wade (17-28 308 1 TD 1 INT) against Georgetown last week, the prospect of such a contest definitely increased. The Crusader offense wallowed in despair the previous two weeks against Lehigh and Colgate without the talented sophomore QB under center. Backups Blaise Bell and Emmett Clifford were unable to put forth the type of performance that was needed to beat two of the top teams in the Patriot League.

Wade’s ability to consistently get the ball in the hands of his talented WRs hands makes Holy Cross’s offense much more difficult to defend. Preseason all-league WR Brandan Flaherty benefited from Wade’s return by posting a career high 196 yards (5th best single game in HC history) in last week’s win over Georgetown. Jake Wieczorek (54 rec 698 yards) should also see his opportunities increase with the increased stability at QB. The senior WRs impact has been for the most part limited to punt returns in recent weeks. With the Holy Cross offense having some renewed continuity, the Crusaders should be able to put up points again the shaky Ram defense (32.8 ppg allowed, 6th in PL)

There’s no secret what Fordham’s objective on offense will be; feed the ball to Chase Edmonds early and often. The leading rusher in FCS is coming off his lowest output (73 yards) of the year in the Rams win over Colgate last week. The sledding figures to be a little easier for the junior RB against Holy Cross’s rush defense (169 ypg allowed, 4th in PL). The Holy Cross defense will also have to deal with Ram QB Kevin Anderson whose coming off one of his best games (27-42 263 yard 3 TDs) of the year throwing the ball.

Fordham is the deeper, more talented team but given the atmosphere and emotion of the day Holy Cross figures to put up one heckuva fight. The Rams desperately need a win to keep their FCS playoff hopes alive. Fordham has made the tournament each of the last three years. The Crusaders would love nothing more than to end their Jesuit rivals postseason dream by notching their first signature win this season. It would also be a huge win for embattled Holy Cross head coach Tom Gilmore.

Of Note: The Cup is in memory of Major Frank W. Cavanaugh who had coaching stints at both Holy Cross and Fordham during the first half of the 20th century. This is the third time the rivalry has been held off-campus. The Ram-Crusader Cup was played in Ireland in 1991 (Holy Cross win) and Bermuda in 1995 (Fordham win). Holy Cross leads the all-time series by a narrow 27-24-2 margin. But, Fordham has won the last 4 meetings including a 47-41 shootout last year at Jack Coffey Field.

Georgetown at Bucknell – 12 Nov. 3:30 P.M. Cooper Field Washington D.C.

(Patriot League Network)

Bucknell (3-6, 2-2) will look to rebound from last week’s tough loss to Lehigh when they travel to Georgetown (3-6, 0-4) to take on the sinking Hoyas. The Bison had a chance to seize control of the Patriot League race with a win last week against the Mountain Hawks but their outstanding effort came up just short. Their defense put forth a spectacular performance in the loss. The Bison D limited the high flying Lehigh offense to 357 total yards and 20 points in the 20-13 setback. Junior DT Abdullah Anderson led the way on defense with a dominating performance in trenches. Bucknell had two 4th quarter opportunities to tie or win the game but a turnover at the goal line and a failed 4th down attempt ended their dreams of a league title. The Bison still have a chance to finish second in final standings by winning their last two games.

Georgetown enters Saturday’s tilt desperate to end their 6 game losing streak. The Hoyas have not won since a 17-14 triumph over Columbia on September 24th. Georgetown nearly broke through in the win column last week against Holy Cross but fell just short, 21-20. The Hoyas anemic offense once again reared its ugly head in crunch time. Trailing by only 1 point entering the 4th quarter, the Hoyas tallied a meager 29 yards and 2 interceptions during the final 15 minutes of play with the game on the line. It was the second game in three weeks (Fordham) where Georgetown had an opportunity to win a game late but couldn’t get over the hump.

The Hoyas offense will once again have their work cut out for themselves this week when they face the top defense in the Patriot League in terms of yards allowed (370 total ypg allowed). QB Clay Norris (54% comp 553 yards 1 TD 7 INTs) and RB Alex Valles (88 carries 405 yards 2 TDs) continue to sputter along for Georgetown. Without a consistent passing and rushing attack Georgetown has been forced to manufacture points all year via special teams and their defense. The Hoyas will need contributions from those two phases against Bucknell if they want to end their losing streak. A big key for the Georgetown offense will be making sure they don’t put their defense in bad spots with poor field positions and turnovers.

Like Georgetown, Bucknell’s offense figures to have a tough time moving the ball. Georgetown’s defense ranks 1st in the PL in points allowed (21.9 ppg allowed) and 3rd in yards allowed (390 ypg). The one thing the Bison offense does have that the Hoyas lack is two reliable threats at the skill positions. RB Joey DeFloria posted his fifth 100 yard rushing game of the year against Lehigh while senior WR Will Carter came through with a 4 catch 120 yard performance.

Senior QB R.J. Nitti’s play has been inconsistent since his return from injury two weeks ago. The veteran signal caller has made his share of nice plays but he’s also been plagued by costly interceptions. Georgetown will try to pounce on any mistake Nitti makes on Saturday. Given the Hoya’s reasonably strong rush defense (142 ypg allowed, 3rd in PL) Nitti will likely be forced to make some plays in the passing game. His ability to come through in the clutch could very well determine the Bison’s fate.

Georgetown has been extremely close to breaking through with a much needed victory 2 out of the last 3 weeks. They simply haven’t been able to make the clutch play on offense in crunch time. Given how good Bucknell’s and Georgetown’s defenses are and how equally “meh” their offenses are, this game will likely come down to a key 4th quarter play again for both teams.

Of Note: Bucknell owns a 16-11-1 all-time series win. Since the Hoyas joined the Patriot League in 2001 the Bison hold a 10-5 advantage. Georgetown did win last year’s game 17-9 in Lewisburg.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1110– PL SotC Show

Kris & Lance ruminate about the State of the PL Conference this week.  Lehigh has things well in hand but they also talk of at large possibilities for others.  Give them a listen.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1109- LISTEN UP!

So what are Kris & Lance bringing us this week?

Looks like we jump in the “Wayback” machine and go over the results of last weekends bigger match ups around the country.  Here is an outline:

Eastern Washington 42 Cal Poly 21

Villanova 26 Maine 7

James Madison 47 Richmond 43

North Dakota State 24 Youngstown State 3

Illinois State 31 Western Illinois 26

Tennessee-Martin 33 Eastern Illinois 17

The Citadel 37 Samford 34

They discuss the AGS Poll this week and some jumbling up of the teams around the top 10.

They look forward to this weeks big games and give us some insight on what they think you should watch for.

Then things get really good to end the show.  The boys give some opinions on what the Selection Committee is doing with their poll so far this year.  You need to listen.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

BIG SOUTH: Week 11 Preview

(4-6) Gardner-Webb              OFF

After ten straight weeks of games and after finally getting the marquee win the Runnin’ Bulldogs have been so close to fetching all season long, they finally get a week off.

Unfortunately, it comes at nearly the worst possible time.  Gardner-Webb is playing really well right now, has just beaten the 8th-ranked team in the nation on the road and has a ton of momentum to carry over against no one.

Also, this is one of the worst spots on a college football schedule to place an open date since there is just a single game remaining on the schedule on the other.  Open dates are primarily used for rest, re-evaluation and recruitment so having that open weekend in the last two weeks of the season is really counter-productive.  Mentally, it’s hard to come back from a week off to play just a single game and it’s a little late in the year to make significant schematic changes.  Recruitment is less effective since many high schools are now into their playoff season, not knowing where they’ll be playing if they’re still playing and not always wanting a college coach coming around to distract their best players from the most important games on their schedule.

What Gardner-Webb has to do in the open week:  Keep it salty.  G-W delivered a Trump-level upset to the Big South race last week and that was due in large part to their will to outplay a quality opponent when they had nothing left to play for.  A win over Monmouth the following week wouldn’t necessarily build on that but it would surely carry their momentum into the offseason, whereas a loss to the low-flying Hawks would just as certainly derail it.

(4-6) Monmouth                    OFF

Just like Gardner-Webb, Monmouth finally gets an open date after playing ten straight games with seven of them having been on the road.  Unlike Gardner-Webb, Monmouth is a team desperately in need of a break as fatigue has clearly set in with the Hawks.  Starting with Presbyterian all the way back on October 8th, Monmouth began fading, unable to compete, in the 4th quarter and that trend continued the following week at Liberty.  Since then, however, that moment of competitive drop-off has become early in the 3rd quarter as the Hawks began to nosedive shortly after halftime against Kennesaw and Coastal Carolina.

Unfortunately, this break doesn’t actually provide much of a break for Monmouth.  Thanks to the newly-begun renovation on their home stadium, Monmouth’s final game after the open date will also be on the road, their 8th away game of the year.  To be fair, that last contest was originally designated as a home game for Monmouth but the MU administration gave it up in order to begin construction as soon as possible.

What Monmouth has to do in the open week:  Relax.  Enjoy being at home on a Saturday, even if it’s literally your actual home.

(2-7) Presbyterian @ (7-2) Kennesaw State – Saturday, November 12th 12:00pm (American Sports Network)

A year ago, Presbyterian won this game 14-6 to close out the season for both teams.  The Blue Hose came away with the win despite being held to just 7 first downs and 187 yards of total offense.  For their part, KSU racked up 350 yards of offense but turned the ball over four times, including twice inside the red zone and only managed two field goals on the day.  Although they held PC in check for the vast majority of the game, Presby RB Darrell Bridges got loose for an 84-yard carry at the end of the 1st quarter that accounted for 45% of PC’s offensive output on the day and also set the stage for a short touchdown pass from QB Ben Cheek that would, ultimately, provide all the scoring the Blue Hose would need on the day.  The victory snapped a 7-game losing streak for PC and sent them into the off-season with a sense of optimism and left KSU knowing they dropped a game they should have one and carrying a bad taste in their mouths through the winter.

Presbyterian comes into this game having just enjoyed one of their best defensive efforts of the season, holding Liberty to 16 points, but also their worst offensive showing of the year in a year full of bad offensive showings.  PC turned the ball over four times, scratched out just 175 yards of offense and had their only scoring threat of the day snuffed out when a low field goal kick disappeared into a swarm of Liberty defenders and didn’t come out.

Offensively, Presbyterian needs help but have nowhere to turn.  Teams are stacking the box against Darrell Bridges and daring Cheek to beat them.  However, Cheek has suffered two game-ending and game-missing injuries already this season and hasn’t been at full strength since PC’s first week of the year at Central Michigan.  To counteract this, PC has been stalling at the line of scrimmage from the outset, draining the play clock before getting the play off in an effort to protect their QB, shorten the game and allow their defense to make as much an impact on field position and possession as possible.  The result has been fewer injuries, but also fewer points and a lot frustrated spectators.  After being blanked by LU, PC is now dead last in all of Division I in scoring offense at 9.0 points a game.  At the current pace – with Kennesaw this week and FBS South Alabama on deck the week after – Presbyterian will score less than 100 points for the entire 2016 season.  That’s an ignominious feat that hasn’t been accomplished over the course of eleven games since an 0-12 Austin Peay team scored just 90 points in 2013.

Kennesaw, however, is absolutely rolling.  After losing to that same Liberty squad, KSU is on a three-game win streak during which they are averaging 50 points a game.  Worse for Presbyterian, all the significant contributors (ie., WR Justin Sumpter and QB Trey White) for KSU who had missed sizeable portions of the season due to injury have returned, ready to play.    Even if they had no motivation of correcting a mistake from last year coming into this game, Kennesaw has a very long shot – and I mean VERY long as in Apollo 11-type trajectory – at making the FCS playoffs.  So many things would have to break their way that it’s hardly worth mentioning but all of it would hinge on the Owls winning their last two games and making as much noise about it in the process.

What Presbyterian has to do against Kennesaw:  Protect the football.   PC turned the ball over four times against Liberty, effectively nullifying a solid defensive outing for the Blue Hose.  Given PC’s turn toward “stall ball”, it’s impossible to control the clock if you’re giving it straight to the other team.

What Kennesaw hast to do against Presbyterian:  Let out that frustration.  Presbyterian is still a better than average defensive team that really knows how to play the option.  That said, KSU has a bevy of offensive weapons this year that they didn’t a year ago, particularly in Sumpter, Chaston Bennett and three quarterbacks (White, Chandler Burks, Daniel David) that have won games for the Owls.

 

 

(5-3) Charleston Southern @ (6-3) Liberty – Saturday, November 5th, 3:30pm (ESPN3, LFSN)

Here it is:  the de facto Big South championship game.

Charleston Southern comes into this game having won four of their last five games, including a wild 59-58 double OT thriller against FBS-bound Coastal Carolina.  That fifth of five games, however, was a loss to surging but sub-.500 Gardner-Webb that knocked CSU from the ranks of the top 10 in every FCS poll.

A month ago, Liberty was 1-3 and had just been shellacked at home by Jacksonville State to the tune of 48-19.  After the game, LU linebacker Dexter Robbins made the statement that Liberty would “be just fine” going forward.  True to his word, Liberty has now won five straight games and Robbins has been part of the reason for that, second on the team in total tackles with an interception to his credit as well as the crucial game-winning block on a field goal that allowed the Flames to defeat the aforementioned Gardner-Webb.

CSU has won the last two meetings with Liberty, 31-24 last year in North Charleston that effectively ended the Flames at-large hopes and 36-34 in Lynchburg, the year before that.  Liberty, however, had won nine straight against the Bucs, including a 56-14 win in 2013 that pushed a 10-win CSU squad completely out of playoff consideration.

Both teams have had issues under center this year.  CSU began the year with veteran leader Kyle Copeland at quarterback and Copeland played well against NDSU but was lost for the season with a knee injury a week later, forcing a cadre of redshirt freshmen to replace him.  Shane Bucenell has played the most frequently of the group with five starts to his credit.  The stars of the CSU offense, however, are the running backs, particularly Mike Holloway who is averaging 98 yards/game for the Bucs.

On the other side, Liberty also began the season with another player at the signal-caller position.  Stephon Masha, a veteran player like Copeland — but also a career backup – was inconsistent to start the season and the Flames’ coaching staff eventually opened up the quarterback competition.  That competition was won by true freshman Buckshot Calvert who has looked alternatively spectacular as well as … well, like a true freshman.  Also, like CSU, the strength of the Liberty offense in recent weeks has been the rushing attack and, in Liberty’s case, there’s a three-headed monster to deal with at running back.  Todd Macon has gotten the bulk of the first series’ reps but backfield-mate Carrington Mosley has provided big plays and big yards as has Frankie Hickson.

For all of that, this game will likely be decided on defense and that is where both teams excel.  The Flames and Bucs are 1-2 in virtually every defensive statistical category in Big South play.  The only appreciably difference is that Liberty has managed to take the ball away at nearly a 2:1 ratio to Charleston Southern.

*Interesting stat:  since 2012, Turner Gill’s first season at Liberty, the Flames are 14-2 in the month of November.  Both of those two losses have come at the hands of CSU. *

This one’s going to be fun.

What Liberty needs to do against CSU:  Get the turnovers and don’t give ‘em back.  As stingy as the LU defense has been in taking the ball away, the offense has been nearly that generous.  Part of that is the product of a young quarterback’s learning curve but, now, it’s playoff season where ball security is a must.

What CSU needs to do against Liberty: Win the 4th quarter.  Watching the Gardner-Webb game, it was the Bulldogs who looked like the better team, particularly late.   Perhaps that was a product of G-W being used to playing in dogfight games (no pun intended) whereas CSU had been blowing opponents out, but the upshot was that Gardner-Webb, despite being shorthanded on offense, had a will to win that CSU just could not or did not summon.