2015: 13-2 (7-1): Shared MVFC Championship, National Championship
Key Returnees: Everyone
Key Losses: All of them and none of them
Is there anything left to be said about the Bison at this point? I mean, seriously? Five straight NCAA titles. Five straight MVFC titles, though I feel obliged to point out that only two of them are outright titles for some reason. Two head coaches during that time and zero drop off between the two. All Americans and NFL draft picks come and go and then come around again. Starting to write this I put what I did for the returnees and losses as a joke, but the more I thought about it and the further I got into the preview the more I realized I had to leave it that way. I know what you’re thinking, “Great, as if we don’t get enough Bizun bragging on the boards”. Well, yeah, kinda. When you do what NDSU has done it comes with the territory. Maybe we find a weak spot in this…maybe.
Let’s start with a quick look at the quarterback spot, where the Bison just lost Carson Wentz to the Eagles with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft. Losing that type of quarterback would mean instant drop off, but Easton Stick got significant playing time last season while Carson healed up a broken wrist. Stick appeared in 11 games, started 8 (more than Wentz), and completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,144 yards with 13 TD and just 4 INT. It’s clear Stick has talent, but what will be interesting to watch is how he looks using the “full play book”. Watching NDSU last year, and looking at his averages per game, it was pretty clear NDSU’s staff knew they didn’t have to expose him to the more indepth portions of the playbook and knew he could rely on the rest of the roster to “carry” him. There is more than enough returning to “protect” Stick if need be. I see a ton of talent, but I want to see how he looks as the guy.
It’s not like Stick will have to carry the team on his own. We all know NDSU is known for their ground game and it typically it involves a herd *nudge nudge* backs splitting the carries. This year’s stable of backs is, essentially, the same as last year just with a year of experience. King Fraizer returns for his seniors season on the back of 1,158 yard and 11 touchdown season. The problem for opposing defenses is King is just the start of the onslaught. Coming behind him is Bruce Anderson (90-503-2), Lance Dunn (95-468-3), Chase Morlock (95-354-5), and then even Stick gets involved (85-498-5). Yup, that’s roughly 500 carries for just under 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns coming back from the dominant rushing game.
The place that defenses have a chance to make strides in slowing the NDSU offense down is through the passing game. I’ve already covered that Stick wasn’t asked to make a ton of plays through the air and him doing so this year would be key, well, the one place NDSU seems to actually have been hit is at WR. Yes, guys like RJ Urzendowski (48-669-6) and Darrius Shepherd (40-575-5) are back, but there is a drop after that. Yes, i realize that “statistically” most of the receptions are back. What I think is key is the loss of Zach Vraa (40-510-5). No, he didn’t have the best stats but if you watched NDSU the last 4 years you know who he is. You know how important he was to Wentz, and Stick. Any time a play was needed it was Vraa that got his number called 90+% of the time. NDSU relies so heavily on the run game that I don’t expect much issue here, but it will be interesting to see play out.
Defensively does it really matter who they lost? To a larger extent than the offense it’s not about who the players on defense are, though it helps to have the talent that NDSU has had. The system NDSU has in place, thanks to Coach Klieman, will put anyone in position to succeed. It helps to have all but one of your top 10 defenders back when it comes to tackles, including Nick DeLuca who has been put on the preseason Butkus Award Watch List. There could be a hole in the armor early in the year, and potentially later depending on development, with the back corners. There is, essentially, no “real” retuning experience at corner. There are guys who saw time in clean up duty, but not much by way of full time experience. That may put added pressure on the safety duo of Robbie Grimsley and Tre Dempsey. If they are forced into coverage help it could open up seams for slot guys to get into, or force them to play off the line a bit more and open up a bit of space for a running back.
Prediction time:
8/27 Charleston Southern – W 1-0 (0-0)
9/10 Eastern Washington – W 2-0 (0-0)
9/17 @ Iowa – L 2-1 (0-0)
10/1 Illinois State – W 3-1 (1-0)
10/8 @ Missouri State – W 4-1 (2-0)
10/15 South Dakota State – W 5-1 (3-0)
10/22 @ Western Illinois – W 6-1 (4-0)
10/29 @ Northern Iowa – L 6-2 (4-1)
11/5 Youngstown State – W 7-2 (5-1)
11/12 Indiana State – W 8-2 (6-1)
11/19 @ South Dakota – W 9-2 (7-1)
NDSU losing two regular season games? I must be high, right? Maybe. The Iowa/NDSU game is a lose/lose and win/win for me either way. One way someone is going to get another reason to slam UNI while the other is going to get knocked down a bit. I hope for a massive outbreak of the flu and the game is canceled. EWU is intriguing to me. There’s no way EWU stops NDSU, but that passing attack against new corners in week 2 after play a triple option team in week 1 could pose some issues. After that I see “smooth” sailing outside of the UNI game in the UNIDome. Call me a homer but I think UNI takes the conference this year, simply because they get NDSU in the UNIDome. We saw two years ago what a UNI team that has an identity can do, even in the two losses last year it was really only UNI that pushed NDSU. Sorry USD, I’m poo pooing your win because it came the week after UNI/NDSU’s blood bath…lightning in a bottle so to speak. Maybe NDSU slips again against a USD level team again. Wouldn’t be the first – USD in ‘15, Indiana State in ‘12, YSU in ‘11 and MSU in ‘10.
The only thing left to ponder is if there is a need to start sizing fingers on the other hand. I see no reason there couldn’t be. I only see one or two teams standing in the way of NDSU, one of them just so happens to be in the conference and likely same side of the bracket with the way the playoffs tend to shake out.
