The FCS Wedge

(1-2)    Charleston Southern     @   (2-1)   Monmouth – Saturday, Sept 24^th, 1:00pm (ESPN3)

 Conference season has finally arrived in the Big South.  Well, just, for these two teams anyway.  Everyone else has to wait until October.

CSU comes into this game after a badly-needed bye week that allowed the Buccaneers to heal up some injuries and sort through some of the NCAA-related chaos that has surrounded their program so far this season.

CSU has a major question to answer at quarterback, specifically, what’s that person’s name?  Since starting QB Kyle Copeland was lost with an ACL injury against Kentucky State and backup Shane Bucenell went out with a leg injury of his own in the same game, CSU has thrown three other players behind center with poor results.  Part of that ineffectiveness is certainly due in part to the fact that those other three players had to face the pre-Louisville defense of Florida State and had to do so without a single starter present on the offensive line.  All of those starters should be back for the game at Monmouth but it must be noted that nearly half of the 32 players that were caught up in CSU’s bookstore scandal (Barnes & Noble-gate? Borders Boondoggle? E-Campus E-Cluster?… It’s a work in progress) have yet to serve their suspensions so it’s possible that a fair number of depth players will miss this game as well.

On the Monmouth side, the Hawks have played well but were without the services of RB Lavon Chaney in their last game due to a shoulder injury.  Chaney’s explosiveness to the hole and cut-back ability is key to Monmouth being able to move the chains.  MU quarterbacks Cody Williams and Kenji Bahar have been solid but, otherwise, unremarkable in their time under center.  One gets the sense from the Monmouth offense that it’s less a slate of playmakers and more of an anonymous but smooth-running first-down machine.  That’s all well and good until a key cog, ie., Chaney, is missing from the machine.

Defensively, it’s hard to get a handle on either team.  It’s been nearly a full month since CSU last played a meaningful game at NDSU on August 27^th.   Monmouth has held up well, statistically speaking, over the course of three games but struggled with Kent State’s running quarterback.  A running quarterback, of course, is the linchpin of CSU’s offense.

These teams have met twice before in conference play and, in neither case, was it a good day to be Monmouth.  In 2014, CSU won 27-0 on their first ever trip to New Jersey and won again last year 34-7.  This game represents Monmouth’s home opener and the first of only three home games on the Hawks entire schedule.

What Charleston Southern needs to do against Monmouth:  Establish a lead early and get it in the Monmouth’s collective head that this game is going to go the same way the last two times went.

What Monmouth needs to do against Charleston Southern:  Get after the CSU quarterback.  Nobody back there has even a full game’s experience under their belt.

Best case scenario for Charleston Southern – If CSU can get off to a 15-point lead, it’s over.  If Chaney doesn’t play, make that an 8-point lead.

Best case scenario for Monmouth – MU continues to manufacture first downs and, defensively, flusters whoever the CSU quarterback(s) is (are).

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 (1-1) Kennesaw State @ (2-1) Duquesne – Saturday, Sept 24^th, 1:00pm (ESPN3)

After a week off, Kennesaw hits the road for their first road game of the 2016 season to visit the defending champions of the NEC, Duquesne University.   The Dukes were blown out in Week 1 at Youngstown State but have been rolling at home since then.  A victory over Bucknell and a comeback win over Dayton, the defending Pioneer League champ, have gotten Duquesne off to a solid start in 2016.

Offensively, the Dukes are multi-faceted.  They were extremely pass-heavy against Bucknell but pretty balanced run/pass against Dayton.  Defensively, Duquesne has been positively stingy against the run at home, allowing only 172 yards rushing in the last two games combined.  That’s not good news for Kennesaw as the ground game is their bread and butter although, to be fair, Kennesaw’s triple-option rushing game is a bit different than Bucknell’s pro-style and Dayton’s spread attack.

The good news for KSU this week is a number of injured starters got some healing done over the off week and should be back in action at Duquesne.  The bad news is that starting QB Trey White and starting A-back Myles White won’t be among them.  The White’s – no relation – are still dealing with injuries suffered in their opening day loss to ETSU and have been left off the depth chart once again.  Backup QB Chandler Burks will get his second career start in Pittsburgh.

One more challenge for the Owls this week will be Duquesne’s unique home field advantage.  KSU has yet to play a day game this season and has yet to play in front of a crowd of less than 8,000 people.  This week, they’ll be going on the road for the first time with an early start and in front of a crowd that’s a small fraction of what they’re used to.  Official attendance for Duquesne’s game against Dayton last Saturday – a meeting of 2015 conference champions – was all of 908 people.  For a young team used to feeding on the energy of a crowd – either positive or negative – it can be hard to adjust to an environment so quiet that players on the sidelines can hear spectators ordering food at the concessions stand.  It’s very easy for the visiting team to come out flat and uninspired.  It sounds strange but I’ve seen it many times.

What Kennesaw needs to do against Duquesne – Get the football to the edges.  ETSU did a very good job of forcing the Owls to work the middle of the field which had more defenders in it.  If KSU can the ball outside, either on the pitch or pass, it will force Duquesne to stretch their box defenders and open up the middle. Duquesne enjoys a 9-minute advantage in TOP in the last two games and KSU needs to cut into that.

Best case scenario for Kennesaw – The Owls smother the Dukes defensively and the offense takes care of itself.

Worst case scenario – Kennesaw comes out lethargic, allowing Duquesne to jump on them early.  If the Dukes get up by two touchdowns, that’ll be hard for KSU to come back from.

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 (1-2) Gardner-Webb @ (1-2) Ohio  – Saturday, Sept 24^th, 2:00pm (ESPN3)

This week, Gardner-Webb travels up to Athens, OH to face the Bobcats of Ohio University.  This will be the third time in the last decade that G-W has faced OU with losses there in 2007 and 2011.

Ohio sits at 1-2 following an opening-day triple overtime loss to Texas State, a dominating win at Big XII Kansas and a fairly competitive loss at Tennessee.  The Bobcats have spread the ball around pretty well so far with four players carrying the ball at least 20 times and a half dozen receivers with at least six catches.  That comes largely even without standout running back AJ Ouelette who was injured early in the first game of the season and is not expected to return until November.  Defensively, Ohio was awful the first week against Texas State but have been stout since considering that they’ve been punching above their weight class for two weeks.  Ultimately, while Ohio has a significant advantage in terms of scholarship athletes and team size, the Bobcats have played to the level of their competition so far this season.  They were heavily-favored against Texas State but played poorly.  They were significant underdogs to Kansas and Tennessee and played well.  If they play to the level of an FCS team, then Gardner-Webb has a chance.

Gardner-Webb comes into this game fresh off a disheartening home loss to the now 10^th-ranked The Citadel team.  Through their first three games, Gardner-Webb has put together extended periods where they are a quality football team but have not really been able to manage that for a full game.  One interesting note from the GWU box scores from the last several weeks has been the Bulldogs’ use of backup QB Brody Rollins.  While some teams have been giving their younger quarterbacks a series or two to get acclimated to the college game – and GWU has done that with Rollins as well – but Rollins is currently the team’s leading kickoff returner.

What Gardner-Webb has to do against Ohio:  Play a full game.  By my estimation, they had a solid last three quarters of play at Elon, the first half at Western and about 50 minutes’ worth last week between The Citadel’s first drive and their last.  If they can do that and Ohio helps them out by playing down again, Gardner-Webb has a chance.

Best case scenario for Gardner-Webb against Ohio – Offensively, G-W stays out of 3^rd-and-long situations and is able to manage the clock.  The lower the score, the better Gardner-Webb’s chances become.

Worst case scenario for Gardner-Webb – A disappointment hangover from The Citadel game and it won’t matter how badly Ohio plays, because it won’t be bad enough.  Gardner-Webb would be in position to get embarrassed by a program not used to embarrassing other teams.

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(3-0) Florida Tech (D2) @ (1-2)  Presbyterian – Saturday, Sept 24^th, 7:00pm (Big South Network)

After nearly a month on the road to start the season, Presbyterian finally comes home to host the Panthers of the Florida Institute of Technology – or FIT.

In only their fourth year of existence, FIT competes in the Gulf South Conference with the likes of North Alabama and Valdosta State.  FIT currently holds a top-25 ranking in D2 and sits atop the Gulf South standings at 2-0 in-conference.  In fact, their last two wins have come against conference opponents Shorter and Mississippi College by a combined score of 81-0.  Despite their relatively short history, this will be the Panthers’ third attempt at knocking off a host scholarship FCS opponent in as many years and they have come very close before.  In the last two seasons, FIT has held 4^th quarter leads on both Bethune-Cookman and Southeastern Louisiana before ultimately falling to the home team late.

Florida Tech has been about as balanced offensively as you can get, 827 rushing yards on the year compared to 825 through the air, but have outscored their opponents through three games by an average of 41-9.  Defensively, they’re holding their opponents rushing attack to just 57 yards a game, although some of that can probably be attributed to the Panthers jumping out to early leads and their opponents abandoning the run game to play catch-up.

Obviously, Florida Tech is not your standard D2 home-opening cupcake.  This is more of a jalapeño-laced bran muffin more likely to leave a bad taste in your mouth and an ugly stain in your Jockeys.  Often, these games are scheduled years in advance and I can’t imagine that the master schedulers at Presbyterian ever dreamed that the Panthers would be a quality program quite so soon.  Even so, the game must be played.

Fun fact:  FIT’s third-team quarterback is Ryan Singer.  Singer was last seen in 2011 as the sophomore starting quarterback for…wait for it… Presbyterian.

For PC, this game may answer a lot of questions.  The Blue Hose sit at 1-2 with just this one game between them and conference play.  Their single win to this point came just last weekend at non-scholarship Campbell and their two losses have been to FBS Central Michigan and 6^th-ranked Chattanooga, so it’s really hard to judge how good a team – or not – PC really is.  It will also be interesting to see who lines up for Presbyterian at quarterback.  Assuming that starter Ben Cheek is still injured, can Will Brock perform efficiently for a second straight week?  If he performs well against FIT, head coach Harold Nichols has demonstrated in previous seasons that he has no reservations about switching horses in mid-stream.

Ultimately, this is a must-win game for Presbyterian.  The rest of the Big South hasn’t shown yet that they’re on the same level as Chattanooga but they are all far north of Campbell in terms of being quality opponents.  If Presby expects to contend in the Big South, they have to be able to beat a program with at least 20 fewer scholarships.

One more fun fact:  Since beginning their transition from D2 to FCS in 2007, Presbyterian has hosted a D2 school in every year except one (2015) and has lost just once.  That lone loss came to North Greenville University in 2010, Nichols second season at the helm and featured the aforementioned Ryan Singer as the freshman backup QB standing on the PC sideline and current Charleston Southern head coach Jamey Chadwell standing on the NGU sideline.

What Presbyterian has to do against Florida Tech:  Control the football and keep FIT’s offense on the sideline.  If that means turning workhorse RB Darrell Bridges into a pack mule and letting him carry the ball 50 times, so be it.  Third down conversions in this game will be of major importance on both sides of the ball.

Best case scenario for PC – PC repeats their performance against Campbell, jumping out to a lead and playing ball-control the rest of the way.

Worst case scenario – FIT forces Presby to throw the ball.  Brock’s passing numbers are better than Cheek’s through the first three games but neither even remotely resembles a gunslinger-type quarterback.  If Presby has to play catch-up, they won’t.

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 (2-1) #3 Jacksonville State @ (1-2) Liberty– Saturday, Sept 24^th  7:00pm EST (ESPN3, LFSN)

This will be Jacksonville State’s first-ever visit to Liberty’s Williams Stadium but not the first time these two teams have met. The Flames and Gamecocks played a two-game series back in the early 80’s when both teams were members of Division II.  JSU won both of those games rather handily.

JSU came into the season ranked in the top 5 nationally and have been on a gradual climb up the polls to their current spot.  Last week, they took care of business at home against FBS-transitioning Coastal Carolina, rolling up 30 first downs and more than 500 yards of offense on the Chanticleers’ defense on their way to a 27-26 victory.

JSU is certainly covered more and better in other spaces, so I’m not going to try to snapshot the entire Gamecock program here.  Suffice to say that JSU’s roster is packed with talent, enough so that a fair portion of that roster originally signed with another (read: FBS) program before eventually transferring to Jacksonville State.  This won’t be the highest-ranked program that Liberty has ever faced but, from an individual player standpoint, it may be the most athletically-talented.

The atmosphere on Liberty’s campus Saturday night should be a fun environment as LU and JSU are both always among the attendance leaders in FCS.  At the same time, both schools already have visits to hostile FBS venues under their belts this season so a crowd of a mere 20,000-25,000 fans won’t be anything new.

Offensively, Jacksonville State has piled up offensive yards all over the place and controlled the clock in every game so far this year but, curiously, all that yardage and possession time hasn’t turned into a proportional advantage in number of points. JSU outgained Coastal by over 200 yards apiece and held the ball for ten minutes longer but still needed a late 4^th-quarter score to win the game.  LSU of the all-powerful SEC only outgained JSU by three yards and gave up a TOP advantage of more than 6 minutes but held the Gamecocks to 13 total points and essentially had the game in hand at halftime.  I’m not sure why that’s the case but it may be worth noting going forward.

Liberty comes in at 1-2 with a win over a team from the Pioneer League and two losses to schools from the FBS.  That experience against FBS athletes will likely come in handy this week.

Defensively, the Flames were able to somewhat corral the SMU passing game and to bog the Mustangs down when they got to the red zone.  However, JSU’s Eli Jenkins is at least as mobile an athlete at quarterback as Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans and possibly more so.  His athleticism will present a challenge for a Liberty defense that is, apparently, a big banged up.  On offense, LU has a question at quarterback.  Against SMU, Stephon Masha started strong but faded quickly, eventually throwing three interceptions.  Enter true freshman Stephen Calvert who drove the Flames offense down the field for one touchdown and threw a go-ahead touchdown that was called back on a procedure penalty.  So who plays against Jacksonville State?  Head coach Turner Gill has refused to say though that stoicism is likely as much gamesmanship as anything else.  Masha is the better athlete of the two and gives the Flames more dual-threat options but Calvert has looked sharp in the passing game.

What Liberty has to do against Jacksonville State – Jenkins is most dangerous both as a runner and a passer on designed pass plays where he gets outside the pocket so, defensively, Liberty’s best chance lies in keeping him within the box.   Offensively, Liberty has to execute – again.

Best case scenario for Liberty against Virginia Tech – Masha/Calvert lead the offense with efficiency and the defense continues their knack for acquiring turnovers.

Worst case scenario for Liberty – Jenkins or RB Roc Thomas runs wild and Liberty gets another faltering performance at quarterback.

 

(1-2) Presbyterian 31,   (2-1) Campbell 14

Well, that came out of nowhere.

Presbyterian went on the road to Campbell and routed the home team.  PC scored on each of their first three possessions and held CU to three-and-outs on their first three possessions and jumped out to a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter.  The Blue Hose offense rode heavily on the back of RB Darrell Bridges as he racked up 159 yards on 32 carries.  Presby’s starting QB, Ben Cheek, sat out this game with an injury but his backup, Will Brock, performed efficiently.  Brock threw for two touchdowns and ran in another but, just as importantly, took care of the football, throwing zero interceptions and was only sacked once.

On defense, Presbyterian held Campbell without a first down until under eight minutes left in the second quarter.  Just before the half – with PC up 24-6 –, Campbell managed to mount their first sustained drive of the game.  A score there and the knowledge that they would have the ball first in the second half would have given the Camels momentum going into halftime.  However, LB Grant Beidel blitzed up the middle and pressured the CU quarterback into a bad throw that allowed DB Kevin Green to make a leaping interception along the sideline.  Campbell did manage to get a second touchdown but not until midway through the 4^th quarter and when the game had been virtually decided.

Presbyterian racked up 346 yards of offense in this game which, by PC standards, was an offensive explosion.  Presbyterian hadn’t come close to that output in nearly a year and was averaging just over half that through the first two games.  Was that because of the high caliber of teams they were playing (Central Michigan and Chattanooga) or was this sudden burst because of the fact that they were playing a non-scholarship program (Campbell)?  The answer is probably a good bit of both.  Without attempting to insinuate anything, this was Presby’s first game of 2016 where the talent level between they and their opponent seemed remotely close to being even.  Three concerns for PC going forward:

• How significant is QB Ben Cheek’s injury? Brock – who, I believe, is a walk-on – subbed in nicely for Cheek but doesn’t have Cheek’s athleticism.  Still, he managed the game and PC won.  Head coach Harold Nichols has been known to switch QB’s at the drop of a hat so it’ll be interesting to see how this situation plays out.
• Presby’s defense was effective against Campbell but not at the dominant level they’ve been for the last several years.  They were aided by the offense staking an early lead and holding the ball for 20 minutes in the first half but, at times, the defense looked average and – Saturday’s offensive output notwithstanding – average is not something the PC defense can afford to be.
• Bridges carried the ball 32 times, twice as many carries as the rest of the team combined. Obviously, Bridges is a workhorse back but he’s also only human.  A year ago, Bridges carried the ball 221 times through 11 games – or roughly 20 times a game – while also fighting through injury.  To this point, he is actually ahead of that pace and is 7^th in all of Division I for total rushing attempts.  Can he maintain this pace and remain healthy?

What does this win mean for PC? – This was a victory earned and cemented as the offense built an early three-score lead and the defense had to do nothing more than hold it.  Presbyterian hasn’t had that kind of win over anyone in quite some time.  Even last year’s win over this same Campbell squad stayed in the balance until late in the game.  This is a win you can build on.

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(2-1) SMU 29, (1-2) Liberty 14

Turnovers and penalties.

The same problems that cost Liberty two weeks ago against Virginia Tech reared their ugly head again against SMU only in a much more winnable game.  Early in the game, it became clear that LU was there to take down their third FBS opponent in as many years.  After giving up a long touchdown run on SMU’s first drive, the Flames came back and marched right down the field on a 12-play, 75-yard drive to tie the game up midway through the first quarter.  Liberty LB Nick Newman picked off SMU in the end zone on the next drive and it looked like LU had the chance to repeat the pattern.  However, QB Stephon Masha was picked off to end the drive and, following an SMU field goal, again on the next drive.  Meanwhile, the LU defense was holding serve in the red zone.  SMU gained yards all over the field but, inside the +20, had no answers for the Flames’ defense.  On the night, SMU got into the red zone five times and came away with three field goals.  At the halftime break, SMU led 13-7 and it was still pretty much anyone’s game.

However, in the second half, the turnovers continued and the penalties mounted.  Nothing exemplified that more than a five-play stretch early in the 3^rd quarter.  Newman’s second interception of the game was nullified by penalty and, on the next play, SMU broke through on the ground for a long touchdown run and a 19-7 lead.  The Mustangs botched the snap on the PAT, however, and Liberty returned it for two points only to have that score wiped out by an illegal kicking penalty.  SMU promptly sent the kickoff out of bounds giving the Flames great field position to start a drive whereupon Masha immediately threw his third interception of the game.  The Liberty defense held but Masha was done for the night.  True freshman Steven ‘Buckshot’ Calvert – I did not make up the nickname – came in and led LU down the field, ending the drive with a pretty back corner pass in the end zone for a touchdown to close the margin to five.  After SMU missed a field goal, Calvert got another crack at the end zone and threw another strike for score that seemed to give the Flames the lead…only to have it called back for a penalty.  Ultimately, that drive– and, truthfully, the Flames hopes – ended with a blocked field goal.  SMU would tack on 10 points in the final 45 seconds of the game with a field goal and a desperation pass from Calvert that turned into a pick-six for the home team.

What does this loss mean for Liberty? – It’s a game that Liberty wasn’t supposed to win – 5dimes had SMU as a 15-point favorite – but, given their history against low-level FBS teams the last two years, it’s a game that Liberty had every reason to believe they could win.  So, from that perspective, it’s disappointing.  Also, an FBS win would have been nice to have in hand come November.

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(1-2) Kent State 27, (2-1) Monmouth 7

The Monmouth Hawks flew over to Ohio on Saturday to face an FBS opponent for only the second time in their history.  In a game dominated by weather as much as anything else, Monmouth probably picked the wrong day to come to Ohio.  Aside from the obvious gap in scholarship numbers, Kent State was just coming off of a four-overtime loss the week before to FCS North Carolina A&T so they came out to play in the rain with a sizeable chip on their shoulder.

Offensively, Monmouth was unproductive and that’s putting it mildly.  Monmouth went three-and-out on every drive in the first quarter and finished the first frame with -14 total yards.  It’s important to note that, due to injury, Monmouth was working without the services of explosive running back Lavon Chaney.  Chaney and fellow RB Zach Welch have been something of a ‘thunder and lightning’ tandem through the first two weeks.  While Welch played against Kent and gained 51 of the team’s 67 rushing yards on the day, just as you can’t have thunder without lightning – at that point, it’s more like a bowling ball rolling around in the attic –, Welch was ineffectual.  Monmouth coach Kevin Callahan also rotated QB’s Cody Williams and Kenji Bahar seemingly indiscriminately against Kent State and neither did much of anything but that’s certainly due to the weather in part.

Defensively, Monmouth safety Mike Basile picked up 16 tackles in the game and the Hawks blocked their 5^th kick of the season.  However, the Kent State offense was not going to be denied.  The Golden Flashes – I didn’t come up with that nickname either – weren’t exactly good on offense but they mauled out enough yards on the soggy ground to keep their offense on the field and occasionally make a difference on the scoreboard.

What does this loss mean for Monmouth? – The Hawks got paid and got to play in a nominally FBS stadium, so the loss isn’t huge.  What is significant is that Chaney’s absence from the lineup was obvious and severe.   They absolutely need him back on the field.

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(3-0) The Citadel 31,  (1-2) Gardner-Webb 24

It was right there.  It was right there.

With 8:10 left in the 4^th quarter, when Gardner-Webb quarterback Tyrell Maxwell hit Willie Jackson IV for a touchdown to take a 24-21 lead over 15^th-ranked The Citadel, you could feel it.  The G-W offense was clicking, Maxwell had finally been successful throwing the ball downfield, the defense had contained The Citadel’s triple-option offense for the entire second half, the home crowd was behind them and, for a moment, it seemed as if the Runnin’ Bulldogs of Gardner-Webb were going to pull off a season-defining upset win.

But, then, The Citadel offense went to work.  Over the course of the next five minutes and ten plays, the (other) Bulldogs gnawed their way down the field, eating away the clock before punching the ball into the end zone from a yard out to take the decisive lead.  Despite there being more than two minutes left in the game, Gardner-Webb was done.  Maxwell took a first down sack on his own 15-yard line and, two plays later, completely froze in the face of a linebacker blitz for another sack that, essentially, ended the game.

Gardner-Webb seemed to be the superior team athletically in this contest but it made no difference to the end result.  Despite establishing a couple of early leads as well as the 4^th-quarter advantage, Gardner-Webb was never able to extend them.  Ultimately, The Citadel’s methodical offense along with a special teams touchdown from explosive punt returner DeAndre Schoultz – who had nearly broken through with another punt earlier — were enough to net the visitors yet another fourth quarter comeback win.  Even though they kept The Citadel offense out of the end zone for a full 30 minutes, the (other) Bulldogs had four players average more than five yards a carry on their way to a 400-yard rushing night as a team.

What does this loss mean for Gardner-Webb? – On the one hand, it’s gratifying to know that Gardner-Webb can compete with a team that’s 3-0, ranked in the top 15 nationally and sitting atop the Southern Conference standings.  On the other hand, it’s at least equally as disappointing to have so large a chance to put a stamp on your season simply slip through your collective fingers like, well, like DeAndre Schoultz returning a punt.

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Biggest surprise of the week:  Presbyterian’s sudden flurry of offense.  Also, the number of teams in the conference with quarterback questions.  If you’re counting at home, it currently stands at five of the six teams. Charleston Southern’s QB was lost for the year with a knee injury and, over the course of 1 ¾ games since, CSU has filled the spot with four different players.  Presbyterian and Kennesaw have QB’s who are also dealing with injuries, albeit less severe than CSU’s situation, and their backups have performed admirably.  Liberty and Monmouth both began the season with a stated starter but have freely substituted in a younger, developing player with mixed results.

Biggest disappointment of the week:  Tough call this week between Gardner-Webb and Liberty.  Both teams have to feel like they had their chances to do something significant and let it get away.  I’ll have to go with Liberty simply because (a.) I had G-W in this space last week and (b.) because the stage and subsequent upside of a victory was larger for Liberty.