MVFC: Week 11 Preview

MVFC LogoMissed last week’s review this time, so here’s just a quick update on that.

MVFC Week 10 Game Scores:

Northern Iowa – 39
Indiana State – 6
UNI WR Marcus Weymiller ran for 171 yards and RB Michael Malloy got 3 rushing TDs. ISUb’s offense held to 201 yards and 0 TDs total and threw 2 interceptions.

Illinois State – 31
Western Illinois – 26
ISUr QB Jake Kolbe passes for 265 yards and 4 TDs and WIU QB Sean McGuire passes for 312 and 2 TDs, but 1 interception.

South Dakota – 28
Southern Illinois – 35
SIU looks to the future, starting Sophomore QB Sam Straub over the Senior transfer that had been starting most of the season. Straub throws for 339 yards and 2 TDs and rushes for 68 and a TD. USD’s talented QB Chris Streveler throws for 219, 2 TDs, and 2 interceptions and runs for 113 yards and 1 TD.

Missouri State – 24
South Dakota State – 49
SDSU’s run game sees 4 different players get rushing TDs (6 total between the 4) and QB Taryn Christion passes for another. SDSU WR Jake Wieneke and Dallas Goedert both top 100+ yards receiving.

Youngstown State – 3
North Dakota State – 24
NDSU QB Easton Stick only passes for 89 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception, but the run game more than makes up for it, picking up 2 more TDs. The YSU offense performs as expected, notching 1 32-yard FG in the second quarter.

How’d I do against last week’s picks?….

Predicted UNI by 15, actual result is UNI by 33 – W
Predicted WIU by 7, actual result is ISUr by 5 – L
Predicted USD by 13, actual result is SIU by 7 – L
Predicted SDSU by 30, actual result is SDSU by 25 – W
Predicted NDSU by 4, actual result is NDSU by 21 – W
Went 3-2 this week, so I’m now I’m 21-12 for picking MVFC games this season.

Playoff Picture:

Current standings in the conference are…

#2 NDSU: 5-1, 8-1
#10 SDSU: 5-1, 6-3
#15 YSU: 4-2, 6-3
#21 WIU: 3-3, 6-3
#30 UNI: 3-3, 4-5
USD: 3-3, 4-5
#28 ISUr: 3-4, 5-5
MSU: 2-4, 4-5
ISUb: 2-5, 4-6
SIU: 1-5, 3-6

If we consider 7 wins to be the “threshold” for playoff consideration then here’s what the teams need to do to have a shot at the playoffs (outside of the conference autobid):

NDSU – already reached 7+ wins
SDSU – need to win 1 out of 2
YSU – need to win 1 out of 2
WIU – need to win 1 out of 2
UNI – can only reach 6 wins
USD – can only reach 6 wins
ISUr – can only reach 6 wins
MSU – can only reach 5 DI wins (one win over NAIA school)
ISUb – can only reach 5 wins
SIU – can only reach 5 wins

So, NDSU is in the playoffs, they’re just playing for seeding now.
SDSU, YSU, and WIU each need at least 1 win in their last 2 games to be likely in the playoffs.
Everyone else is probably outside looking in, although UNI and ISUr both have an outside shot at playoffs if they win out, being 6-5 and both having wins over P5 FBS teams.

On to the games…

This week, we have:

Southern Illinois at #15 Youngstown State @ 11 AM
Missouri State at #28 Illinois State @ 12 PM
#30 Northern Iowa at #21 Western Illinois @1 PM
South Dakota at #10 South Dakota State @ 2 PM
Indiana State at #2 North Dakota State @ 2:30 PM

Southern Illinois at #15 Youngstown State

SIU is well out of the playoff picture at this point, but could still play spoiler to the Penguins, who need to win 1 more game (out of their final 2) to have a solid shot at the playoffs. This one’s going to be interesting. The Salukis have the FCS’s 8th best passing offense, which appears to have only gotten better when they went with Sophomore QB Sam Straub last week. They’ll have to match up with the FCS’s 9th best passing defense at YSU. The Saluki’s don’t have a great run game, however, which could be an issue against the excellent Penguin run defense. When YSU has the ball, the offense is…well….anemic. Their run game is decent, putting up over 200 yards per game on the ground, but their passing game is horrible, accounting for less than 160 yards per game, which is in the bottom 20 of all FCS teams. Luckily for YSU, the SIU pass defense is also pretty bad and their run defense isn’t great (7th in the conference).

The YSU defense is one of the best in the FCS in keeping opposing teams from scoring, but also one of the worst at scoring themselves. SIU is much more balanced, although their offense is a little bit better than their defense overall. I think we’ll see quite a bit of pressure on the young SIU QB (in only his second ever start) and he’ll struggle…couple of interceptions, maybe 3-4 sacks. The YSU offense will be able to put up just enough points to get past SIU, mostly on the ground.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 6

Missouri State at #28 Illinois State @ 12 PM

The Bears are also out of the playoff picture, although the Redbirds have an outside shot at an at-large spot if they win this game dominantly and get lucky with some other key “bubble team” losses. They’d be at 6-5 with wins over probable playoff teams SDSU and WIU, as well as the Big 10’s Northwestern, and they would have won the last 3 straight to end the season. It’s probably not hugely likely, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

ISU is ranking slightly ahead of MSU in most areas. They’re very good at not getting penalized and have one of the better pass defenses in the conference. MSU’s offense is currently last in the conference, and generally geared more towards the passing game, although they have thrown 14 interceptions this season, which is worst in the conference.

The other thing is that ISU is just flat-out playing good football right now. Back-to-back weeks with wins over decently ranked teams (SDSU and at WIU). You can argue that the refs helped them out with the SDSU game, but they did get themselves into a position to win both times. The other thing is that sometimes you’ll see teams looking past some of the bottom teams towards the next week’s opponent. This won’t be an issue with ISU, since they have their bye week next weekend, and they need another win to hold on to their (admittedly very slim) playoff hopes. MSU meanwhile is playing on the road, with not much to play for beyond bragging rights. I think ISU will do fine in this game and spend next weekend watching a lot of football on TV and rooting against some other playoff “bubble” teams.

TL:DR – Illinois State by 11

#30 Northern Iowa at #21 Western Illinois

Around the middle in the season, when I was looking at the schedule and what WIU would probably have to do to make the playoffs (win 1 out of the last 3 games against ISUr, UNI, or SIU) I was thinking that it shouldn’t be a problem, since none of the three teams were playing great football and at that point, WIU had only lost one. I’m definately a lot more nervous now that we’re nearing the end of the season. WIU struggled against Illinois State and lost, and UNI has been playing pretty well now that they’ve found an offense. UNI is kinda in the same position as Illinois State, needing to win out to have a slim chance at the playoffs (it’d be a harder road for UNI though, having to beat WIU and then SDSU, whereas ISU just has the one game vs Missouri State left).

It’s kinda hard to just look at stats with Northern Iowa on the offensive side of the ball, since they’ve essentially run 3 different offenses so far this season. The first 6 games, they were running QB Aaron Bailey…and I do mean running, as he was averaging 71 yards per game and had 6 rushing TDs in those 6 games. So…strong run game, but Bailey didn’t really pass much or put up huge yardage through the air (147 yards per game). After dropping to 2-4 on the season after the loss at YSU, they put in sophomore QB Eli Dunne as the starter. Dunne immediately made an impact, throwing for an average of 317 yards and 2 TDs per game over two games, although he did throw 4 INTs against NDSU. Then last weekend, with Dunne out with an injury, they went with a couple of other backup QBs, but actually seemed to do their most damage by direct snapping to WR Marcus Weymiller in the wildcat formation, who rushed for 171 yards. This is even more impressive due to him not touching the ball until around halfway through the 2nd quarter. This week, however, it looks like Dunne will be back at the starting QB spot, but with a newfound option of direct snapping to Weymiller, in addition to the passing ability of Dunne…UNI has suddenly become a rather dangerous offense.

Meanwhile, the UNI defense has rolled along consistently as one of the best in the conference behind only Youngstown State. They have the best player in the FCS at sacks (DL Karter Schult) and are the second best team in the FCS at snagging interceptions.

Western Illinois has had a fairly solid offense mostly, generally set up to go to the pass more often than running the ball, but with transfer RB Jamie Gilmore picking up steam and the talent of Steve McShane, defenses can’t ignore that side of things either. The Leatherneck O-line is also the best in the conference at preventing sacks. Defensively, however, Western has struggled, especially against teams with a good passing game, giving up ~290 yards per game just through the air, mostly through long passing plays. Special teams has also been an issue at times recently, with 5 blocked kicks and a blocked punt allowed this season.

I think that Western could win this game (and I really hope they do), but I think that the advantage is with Northern Iowa right now. That being said, I think that Coach Fisher will have the guys ready to come out and play right off the bat (something they did not do against Illinois State). They’re practically in “playoff mode” already, since I’m not sure 7-5 would be a secure spot if it included losses to a couple of possible 6-5 teams (ISUr and UNI)…that’s assuming they win at SIU next weekend. So a win against UNI would really help solidify their playoff hopes. I realize it’s a “homer” pick, but I think that we’ll finally put together a mostly “full game” and pull off the minor upset in a close, but high scoring game.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 4

South Dakota at #10 South Dakota State

South Dakota started off the conference season well, winning their first three straight, but then losing the last two against WIU and at SIU. Now probably the toughest part of their schedule is up, with games against SDSU and NDSU to finish out the regular season. I think their playoff hopes are essentially gone, although if they did pull off wins against SDSU and NDSU, then they’d be at 6-5 with those wins and very close losses to likely playoff teams North Dakota, YSU, and WIU. They do have an ugly loss against a bad SIU team last week though, and no FBS win to help counteract that. Meanwhile SDSU is already at 6 wins, but would like to win out and possibly snag a top 8 seed in the playoffs. This is also a rivalry game, sometimes called the South Dakota Showdown Series), with this weekend being the 110th meeting and the overall series actually being tied at 52-52-7.

Statistically, SDSU has the advantage in most categories, with the best offense in the conference, although USD is #2. SDSU has a much better passing game, with QB Taryn Christion passing to probably the best WR in conference history (at least statistically) Jake Wieneke, and likely the best TE currently in the FCS, Dallas Goedert. Both players have 10 or more TDs and 1000+ yards receiving this season (they’re the only two players in the conference with over 1000 yards already). USD’s offense is a bit more balanced, although is stronger in their run game, with the #3 and #5 rushers in the conference. #3 is their QB Chris Streveler, who last week threw for 219 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 113 yards and 1 TD, although did throw 2 interceptions in the loss to SIU.

Defensively, neither team is great against the run, being the last two teams in the conference at giving up yards on the ground, but SDSU’s pass defense is fairly solid. USD has the advantage over SDSU (and really, over nearly every FCS team) in the kicking game, with K/P Miles Bergner being #1 in the FCS in punting average, #3 in the FCS in FGs per game and is a perfect 9 for 9 on FGs less than 40 yards, 4 for 5 in the 40 range and 1 for 3 in the 50+ range.

I think that generally, you can throw out “expected” results when it comes to big rivalry games, but I just don’t think USD will be able to stop SDSU’s offense enough to keep up with them. I think the scores will be high (maybe combined 70-80), but SDSU will pull away enough to win by a bit.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 10

Indiana State at #2 North Dakota State

ISU is out of the playoff picture now, since they’re at 4 wins and only have this game left to finish out their season. NDSU meanwhile is aiming to finish out their season strong and grab a top seed for the playoffs giving them homefield advantage.

Indiana State has had a few bright spots in their somewhat disappointing season. QB Isaac Harker is #2 in the conference in passing yards with a bit under 2,600 and #2 in passing TDs with 19. They are also the best team in the conference at recovering fumbles. Unfortunately they’re also the worst team in the conference at losing fumbles and at intercepting passes. They also have the worst rushing offense in the MVFC.

North Dakota State, meanwhile, is very good at their run game, on both sides of the ball….#1 in the conference in both rushing offense and their run defense. They don’t pass a ton (QB Easton Stick runs for ~40 yards per game), but they’ve got multiple options for running the ball that are very good, so they don’t often need to, preferring to just keep pounding away on the ground to get their offensive yardage. When they do pass, they generally do it in short bits, but are selective, with the 2nd best passing efficiency in the conference. Overall, this means that they nearly always pick up some positive yards on every play and rarely end up on the “wrong” side of the line of scrimmage…they’re #4 in the FCS and best in the conference at not allowing tackles for loss.

So…on one hand a team that has struggled this year, with not much to play for outside of garnering a bit of respect, and playing away at one of the toughest and loudest stadiums in the FCS. On the other, one of the best teams in the country, playing near the end of the season (when they always play their best) at home, and fighting for a top playoff seed. I’m afraid I don’t really see this one being very close. NDSU put up 24 points against probably the best defense in the conference (YSU) last weekend, so I think they could easily reach 40. Meanwhile, they’ve been holding some pretty good offenses to the 13-20 point range. I don’t see ISU getting past 14 points probably.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 26

OVC: Week 11 Preview

Eastern Kentucky (2-7, 1-5 OVC) @  Austin Peay (0-9, 0-7 OVC) 5PM EST (OVCDN)

Well this is it for Austin Peay.  Will they get a win before the end of the season? We will know tomorrow night (because they have zero chance of beating Kentucky next weekend). The Gov’s will host a Colonels team that has been plagued with inconsistent play all year.  The Colonels have had trouble with the running game, the defense, and most notably, quarterback play.  Colonel’s QB Bennie Coney comes into the penultimate game of the season having thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (8) and the Gov’s will look to take advantage of the Colonel’s inconsistency to come away with the upset that will snap their 25 game losing streak.  Expect the Govs to spread the field on offense and use their ability to pass to open up the running game.  The challenge for the Colonels will be not beating themselves and playing a complete game.

Prediction: Austin Peay pulls off the upset in a close one thanks to a couple EKU turnovers.

Southeast Missouri State (3-6, 2-1 OVC) @ Tennessee-Martin (6-4, 2-3 OVC) 3PM EST (OVCDN)

If UT-Martin wants a shot at the playoffs this game is a must win. If the Skyhawks can win out they will unseat JSU from the OVC championship thus giving them the conference auto-bid to the playoffs but first thing is first, they must beat SEMO.  SEMO is coming into this game after starring in an ugly episode of Last Chance U with Jacksonville State.  The Redhawks will likely come into the game looking to ruin someone’s season and will be out for blood.  However they will have a hard time containing Troy Cook and UT-Martins potent offense.  The Skyhawks have been leading the OVC in scoring offense and have been able to move the ball on everyone they’re played, including their FBS opponents. If the Skyhawks can slow down SEMO’s rushing attack they should be able to roll into Jacksonville next week with a shot at the OVC title.

 

Prediction: Troy Cook exposes SEMO’s defense and the Skyhawks win handily.

#3 Jacksonville State (8-1, 5-0 OVC) @ Murray State (2-4, 1-2 OVC) 2PM EST(OVCDN)

Most people will looking at this game and thinking “ahh it’s just Murray State”  however, this team will probably be the toughest conference game JSU has faced so far this season. Why? Well JSU’s defense has been the story this year for the Cocks.  JSU has been riding their defense to win after win as the season rolls on and the run defense is spectacular and if this defense has a “weakness” it’s in pass coverage.  That said, JSU has ranked as the fifth hardest team to pass on based on opponent passer rating.  However if there is a squad that can expose a secondary, it’s the Racers.  KD Humphries has been having another spectacular year as he’s thrown for 2600 yards (8th in the FCS) in 8 games with 20 TDs against just 8 interceptions.  He’s completing an impressive 66% of his passes and is ranked in the top 20 for FCS passer rating. Even though Humphries can be a weapon, his supporting cast isn’t nearly as lethal.  Humphries has been sacked 23 times in 8 games and will have his hands full with JSU’s pass rush.  I expect another strong defensive performance from the Gamecocks and it will be interesting to see if the offense can fix their penalty-fueled mediocrity.

Prediction:  Humphries spends most of the afternoon his back.  Cocks by two touchdowns.   

Tennessee Tech (3-6,3-3 OVC) @ Tennessee State (6-3, 3-2 OVC) 7PM EST (ESPN3)

Tennessee State still has a chance at the playoffs.  If they win out they will be an 8 win team.  However, their issue is their schedule which is pretty awful.  Like, Sam Houston State awful.  If the Tigers want to be considered for an at-large bid they need to ROLL the last two teams on their schedule and leave no doubt. Tech and SEMO should theoretically be wins by a solid margin and if TSU can deliver and the rest of the playoff field shakes down the right way the Tigers could sneak their way in but they have to win impressively. I expect the Tigers defense will do their best to get at Birdsong but I think Birdsong will give them all they want and then some.  Tennessee State needs a blowout but I expect a close one.  

Prediction: Birdsong’s performance leads Tech to a close win over the Tigers Nashville.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1111 – AGSFCSBTS

What is this now?   Sometimes, you just get a secret show.  This is just some behind the scenes stuff from this week’s show.  Pay no attention to it.

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Patriot League: Week 11 Preview

The Ram-Crusader Cup at Yankee Stadium is the featured game this Saturday as we reach the penultimate week of Patriot League football. The historical meeting between Fordham and Holy Cross will be the second time in three years that two Patriot League institutions have played at the world famous baseball stadium. Lafayette and Lehigh held their 150th game there to close out the 2014 season. Fordham needs a win to keep their FCS playoff hopes alive. The Rams can also earn a split of the league title with two wins to close out the year and a Lafayette victory over Lehigh next week. This is Holy Cross’s last game of the year.

In other league action this weekend, Lafayette makes the 4 hour trek north to Hamilton, NY to take on Colgate. The Leopard and Raiders need to finish the year strong to help make up for what has been an otherwise disappointing 2016 campaign. The final game of the weekend, Bucknell at Georgetown, also sees a couple of squads whose season has seen its fair share of letdowns. The Bison had a chance to stake their claim at the Patriot League title but came up just short. Meanwhile, Georgetown hasn’t won in nearly two months. The Hoyas have been close recently but can’t put it all together. 2016 Patriot League champion Lehigh gets to enjoy a late season bye before heading to Easton to for their annual showdown with Lafayette next week.

Lafayette at Colgate – 12 Nov. 1:00 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

(Patriot League Network)

Colgate (3-5, 2-2) will try to keep their hopes of .500 season alive this weekend when they welcome Lafayette (2-7, 1-3) to what should be a chilly Andy Kerr Stadium. Both teams have suffered a disappointing season relative to preseason expectations. Colgate entered the year as the odds-on favorite to repeat as Patriot League champions while Lafayette hoped better health and 4 years of scholarships would be enough to improve upon last year’s dismal 1-10 record. Colgate has been hurt by a difficult schedule that resulted in several early season road games. It’s the 11th week of the season yet this will be only their 3rd home game. The Leopards have been hurt by poor offensive line play which has derailed the running game and a defense that gives up the most points per game (33.7) in the league.

A big reason for the number of points Lafayette gives up is their rush defense (256 ypg allowed). Unless the Leopards were able to make some adjustments during their bye week to tighten things up Colgate should find plenty of success for their ground attack. It’s fair to say that a weak run “D” is usually not a prerequisite to beat Colgate and their zone-read offense. The Raider QB (Jake Melville) and RB (Kenyon Washington) duo had it rolling last week against Fordham when they both went over 100 yards in the 24-20 loss. A similar type of performance on Saturday is certainly not out of the question given the Leopard’s leaky run “D”.

If Lafayette can muster up a defensive game plan to limit the rush and force Melville to throw more than he’d like the Leopards might have a chance to pull the upset. The senior QB has not thrown a touchdown pass or completed at least 50% of his passes since the Bucknell game in mid-October. Lafayette does possess the Patriot League’s top pass defense (160 ypg allowed) so there is reason to believe they can add to Melville’s recent misery through the air. The Leopard secondary is led by defensive back Jerry Powe (41 solo tackles, 9 TFL) who has emerged as arguably the top player in the Patriot League at his position. The sensational sophomore will likely be assigned to talented Colgate WR John Maddaluna (41 rec 719 yards).

The Leopards ability to move the ball will likely come down to Drew Reed and the passing game. The senior QB has had an up and down season statistically (203 ypg 9 TDs 9 INTs) but has been able to carry the ‘Pards offense on his back in the past. A big game from Reed will likely be needed on Saturday given the fact that Lafayette’s anemic rushing attack (71 ypg, 7th in the PL) will be trying to penetrate Colgate’s top ranked run defense (4th in FCS at 76 ypg allowed). The Raider run defense limited the leading rusher in the country, Chase Edmonds, to 73 yards last week. The Raiders held Fordham as a team to nearly 150 yards under their per-game average (244 ypg, 9th in FCS).

The rumors continue to circulate about Lafayette head coach Frank Tavani’s job status as the season nears a conclusion. The Leopards are destined to finish with their 7th straight losing season and will be a heavy underdog in the season finale against rival Lehigh next week. If the long tenured coach decides to step down on his own terms an announcement could be coming within the next few days.

Of Note: Colgate possesses a commanding 42-13-4 series lead. The Raiders have won 16 out of the last 20 meetings against the Leopards including 8 out of the last 10 in Hamilton. Colgate won last year’s matchup in Easton 28-19.

Fordham at Holy Cross – 12 Nov. 3:00 P.M. Yankee Stadium Bronx, NY

(Patriot League Network)

For the second time in the 30 year history of the Patriot League two members will play a football game at Yankee Stadium. Two years ago Lafayette and Lehigh played their historical 150th meeting in front of a sold out crowd at the stadium. Like that event 24 months ago, the 31st Ram-Crusader Cup at the baseball mecca in the Bronx will be a tremendous event for the Fordham and Holy Cross players, alums and fans.

While the Crusader and Ram faithful won’t pack the place, the two schools are anticipating an excellent turnout for the event. Fordham and Holy Cross had to guarantee they would sell out (which they did) their respective allotment of 7,500 tickets. With the weather forecast looking good and Fordham still in the playoff chase the attendance figure will probably be in the low 20,000 range. Another strong turnout might open the door for the Patriot League to host another event at Yankee Stadium. Being able to host college football games in the Big Apple at such an iconic stadium has been a tremendous boost for the league.

What would make the event even better is a classic game on the field. With the return of Holy Cross’s Geoff Wade (17-28 308 1 TD 1 INT) against Georgetown last week, the prospect of such a contest definitely increased. The Crusader offense wallowed in despair the previous two weeks against Lehigh and Colgate without the talented sophomore QB under center. Backups Blaise Bell and Emmett Clifford were unable to put forth the type of performance that was needed to beat two of the top teams in the Patriot League.

Wade’s ability to consistently get the ball in the hands of his talented WRs hands makes Holy Cross’s offense much more difficult to defend. Preseason all-league WR Brandan Flaherty benefited from Wade’s return by posting a career high 196 yards (5th best single game in HC history) in last week’s win over Georgetown. Jake Wieczorek (54 rec 698 yards) should also see his opportunities increase with the increased stability at QB. The senior WRs impact has been for the most part limited to punt returns in recent weeks. With the Holy Cross offense having some renewed continuity, the Crusaders should be able to put up points again the shaky Ram defense (32.8 ppg allowed, 6th in PL)

There’s no secret what Fordham’s objective on offense will be; feed the ball to Chase Edmonds early and often. The leading rusher in FCS is coming off his lowest output (73 yards) of the year in the Rams win over Colgate last week. The sledding figures to be a little easier for the junior RB against Holy Cross’s rush defense (169 ypg allowed, 4th in PL). The Holy Cross defense will also have to deal with Ram QB Kevin Anderson whose coming off one of his best games (27-42 263 yard 3 TDs) of the year throwing the ball.

Fordham is the deeper, more talented team but given the atmosphere and emotion of the day Holy Cross figures to put up one heckuva fight. The Rams desperately need a win to keep their FCS playoff hopes alive. Fordham has made the tournament each of the last three years. The Crusaders would love nothing more than to end their Jesuit rivals postseason dream by notching their first signature win this season. It would also be a huge win for embattled Holy Cross head coach Tom Gilmore.

Of Note: The Cup is in memory of Major Frank W. Cavanaugh who had coaching stints at both Holy Cross and Fordham during the first half of the 20th century. This is the third time the rivalry has been held off-campus. The Ram-Crusader Cup was played in Ireland in 1991 (Holy Cross win) and Bermuda in 1995 (Fordham win). Holy Cross leads the all-time series by a narrow 27-24-2 margin. But, Fordham has won the last 4 meetings including a 47-41 shootout last year at Jack Coffey Field.

Georgetown at Bucknell – 12 Nov. 3:30 P.M. Cooper Field Washington D.C.

(Patriot League Network)

Bucknell (3-6, 2-2) will look to rebound from last week’s tough loss to Lehigh when they travel to Georgetown (3-6, 0-4) to take on the sinking Hoyas. The Bison had a chance to seize control of the Patriot League race with a win last week against the Mountain Hawks but their outstanding effort came up just short. Their defense put forth a spectacular performance in the loss. The Bison D limited the high flying Lehigh offense to 357 total yards and 20 points in the 20-13 setback. Junior DT Abdullah Anderson led the way on defense with a dominating performance in trenches. Bucknell had two 4th quarter opportunities to tie or win the game but a turnover at the goal line and a failed 4th down attempt ended their dreams of a league title. The Bison still have a chance to finish second in final standings by winning their last two games.

Georgetown enters Saturday’s tilt desperate to end their 6 game losing streak. The Hoyas have not won since a 17-14 triumph over Columbia on September 24th. Georgetown nearly broke through in the win column last week against Holy Cross but fell just short, 21-20. The Hoyas anemic offense once again reared its ugly head in crunch time. Trailing by only 1 point entering the 4th quarter, the Hoyas tallied a meager 29 yards and 2 interceptions during the final 15 minutes of play with the game on the line. It was the second game in three weeks (Fordham) where Georgetown had an opportunity to win a game late but couldn’t get over the hump.

The Hoyas offense will once again have their work cut out for themselves this week when they face the top defense in the Patriot League in terms of yards allowed (370 total ypg allowed). QB Clay Norris (54% comp 553 yards 1 TD 7 INTs) and RB Alex Valles (88 carries 405 yards 2 TDs) continue to sputter along for Georgetown. Without a consistent passing and rushing attack Georgetown has been forced to manufacture points all year via special teams and their defense. The Hoyas will need contributions from those two phases against Bucknell if they want to end their losing streak. A big key for the Georgetown offense will be making sure they don’t put their defense in bad spots with poor field positions and turnovers.

Like Georgetown, Bucknell’s offense figures to have a tough time moving the ball. Georgetown’s defense ranks 1st in the PL in points allowed (21.9 ppg allowed) and 3rd in yards allowed (390 ypg). The one thing the Bison offense does have that the Hoyas lack is two reliable threats at the skill positions. RB Joey DeFloria posted his fifth 100 yard rushing game of the year against Lehigh while senior WR Will Carter came through with a 4 catch 120 yard performance.

Senior QB R.J. Nitti’s play has been inconsistent since his return from injury two weeks ago. The veteran signal caller has made his share of nice plays but he’s also been plagued by costly interceptions. Georgetown will try to pounce on any mistake Nitti makes on Saturday. Given the Hoya’s reasonably strong rush defense (142 ypg allowed, 3rd in PL) Nitti will likely be forced to make some plays in the passing game. His ability to come through in the clutch could very well determine the Bison’s fate.

Georgetown has been extremely close to breaking through with a much needed victory 2 out of the last 3 weeks. They simply haven’t been able to make the clutch play on offense in crunch time. Given how good Bucknell’s and Georgetown’s defenses are and how equally “meh” their offenses are, this game will likely come down to a key 4th quarter play again for both teams.

Of Note: Bucknell owns a 16-11-1 all-time series win. Since the Hoyas joined the Patriot League in 2001 the Bison hold a 10-5 advantage. Georgetown did win last year’s game 17-9 in Lewisburg.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1110– PL SotC Show

Kris & Lance ruminate about the State of the PL Conference this week.  Lehigh has things well in hand but they also talk of at large possibilities for others.  Give them a listen.

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The FCS Wedge – 2016-1109- LISTEN UP!

So what are Kris & Lance bringing us this week?

Looks like we jump in the “Wayback” machine and go over the results of last weekends bigger match ups around the country.  Here is an outline:

Eastern Washington 42 Cal Poly 21

Villanova 26 Maine 7

James Madison 47 Richmond 43

North Dakota State 24 Youngstown State 3

Illinois State 31 Western Illinois 26

Tennessee-Martin 33 Eastern Illinois 17

The Citadel 37 Samford 34

They discuss the AGS Poll this week and some jumbling up of the teams around the top 10.

They look forward to this weeks big games and give us some insight on what they think you should watch for.

Then things get really good to end the show.  The boys give some opinions on what the Selection Committee is doing with their poll so far this year.  You need to listen.

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BIG SOUTH: Week 11 Preview

(4-6) Gardner-Webb              OFF

After ten straight weeks of games and after finally getting the marquee win the Runnin’ Bulldogs have been so close to fetching all season long, they finally get a week off.

Unfortunately, it comes at nearly the worst possible time.  Gardner-Webb is playing really well right now, has just beaten the 8th-ranked team in the nation on the road and has a ton of momentum to carry over against no one.

Also, this is one of the worst spots on a college football schedule to place an open date since there is just a single game remaining on the schedule on the other.  Open dates are primarily used for rest, re-evaluation and recruitment so having that open weekend in the last two weeks of the season is really counter-productive.  Mentally, it’s hard to come back from a week off to play just a single game and it’s a little late in the year to make significant schematic changes.  Recruitment is less effective since many high schools are now into their playoff season, not knowing where they’ll be playing if they’re still playing and not always wanting a college coach coming around to distract their best players from the most important games on their schedule.

What Gardner-Webb has to do in the open week:  Keep it salty.  G-W delivered a Trump-level upset to the Big South race last week and that was due in large part to their will to outplay a quality opponent when they had nothing left to play for.  A win over Monmouth the following week wouldn’t necessarily build on that but it would surely carry their momentum into the offseason, whereas a loss to the low-flying Hawks would just as certainly derail it.

(4-6) Monmouth                    OFF

Just like Gardner-Webb, Monmouth finally gets an open date after playing ten straight games with seven of them having been on the road.  Unlike Gardner-Webb, Monmouth is a team desperately in need of a break as fatigue has clearly set in with the Hawks.  Starting with Presbyterian all the way back on October 8th, Monmouth began fading, unable to compete, in the 4th quarter and that trend continued the following week at Liberty.  Since then, however, that moment of competitive drop-off has become early in the 3rd quarter as the Hawks began to nosedive shortly after halftime against Kennesaw and Coastal Carolina.

Unfortunately, this break doesn’t actually provide much of a break for Monmouth.  Thanks to the newly-begun renovation on their home stadium, Monmouth’s final game after the open date will also be on the road, their 8th away game of the year.  To be fair, that last contest was originally designated as a home game for Monmouth but the MU administration gave it up in order to begin construction as soon as possible.

What Monmouth has to do in the open week:  Relax.  Enjoy being at home on a Saturday, even if it’s literally your actual home.

(2-7) Presbyterian @ (7-2) Kennesaw State – Saturday, November 12th 12:00pm (American Sports Network)

A year ago, Presbyterian won this game 14-6 to close out the season for both teams.  The Blue Hose came away with the win despite being held to just 7 first downs and 187 yards of total offense.  For their part, KSU racked up 350 yards of offense but turned the ball over four times, including twice inside the red zone and only managed two field goals on the day.  Although they held PC in check for the vast majority of the game, Presby RB Darrell Bridges got loose for an 84-yard carry at the end of the 1st quarter that accounted for 45% of PC’s offensive output on the day and also set the stage for a short touchdown pass from QB Ben Cheek that would, ultimately, provide all the scoring the Blue Hose would need on the day.  The victory snapped a 7-game losing streak for PC and sent them into the off-season with a sense of optimism and left KSU knowing they dropped a game they should have one and carrying a bad taste in their mouths through the winter.

Presbyterian comes into this game having just enjoyed one of their best defensive efforts of the season, holding Liberty to 16 points, but also their worst offensive showing of the year in a year full of bad offensive showings.  PC turned the ball over four times, scratched out just 175 yards of offense and had their only scoring threat of the day snuffed out when a low field goal kick disappeared into a swarm of Liberty defenders and didn’t come out.

Offensively, Presbyterian needs help but have nowhere to turn.  Teams are stacking the box against Darrell Bridges and daring Cheek to beat them.  However, Cheek has suffered two game-ending and game-missing injuries already this season and hasn’t been at full strength since PC’s first week of the year at Central Michigan.  To counteract this, PC has been stalling at the line of scrimmage from the outset, draining the play clock before getting the play off in an effort to protect their QB, shorten the game and allow their defense to make as much an impact on field position and possession as possible.  The result has been fewer injuries, but also fewer points and a lot frustrated spectators.  After being blanked by LU, PC is now dead last in all of Division I in scoring offense at 9.0 points a game.  At the current pace – with Kennesaw this week and FBS South Alabama on deck the week after – Presbyterian will score less than 100 points for the entire 2016 season.  That’s an ignominious feat that hasn’t been accomplished over the course of eleven games since an 0-12 Austin Peay team scored just 90 points in 2013.

Kennesaw, however, is absolutely rolling.  After losing to that same Liberty squad, KSU is on a three-game win streak during which they are averaging 50 points a game.  Worse for Presbyterian, all the significant contributors (ie., WR Justin Sumpter and QB Trey White) for KSU who had missed sizeable portions of the season due to injury have returned, ready to play.    Even if they had no motivation of correcting a mistake from last year coming into this game, Kennesaw has a very long shot – and I mean VERY long as in Apollo 11-type trajectory – at making the FCS playoffs.  So many things would have to break their way that it’s hardly worth mentioning but all of it would hinge on the Owls winning their last two games and making as much noise about it in the process.

What Presbyterian has to do against Kennesaw:  Protect the football.   PC turned the ball over four times against Liberty, effectively nullifying a solid defensive outing for the Blue Hose.  Given PC’s turn toward “stall ball”, it’s impossible to control the clock if you’re giving it straight to the other team.

What Kennesaw hast to do against Presbyterian:  Let out that frustration.  Presbyterian is still a better than average defensive team that really knows how to play the option.  That said, KSU has a bevy of offensive weapons this year that they didn’t a year ago, particularly in Sumpter, Chaston Bennett and three quarterbacks (White, Chandler Burks, Daniel David) that have won games for the Owls.

 

 

(5-3) Charleston Southern @ (6-3) Liberty – Saturday, November 5th, 3:30pm (ESPN3, LFSN)

Here it is:  the de facto Big South championship game.

Charleston Southern comes into this game having won four of their last five games, including a wild 59-58 double OT thriller against FBS-bound Coastal Carolina.  That fifth of five games, however, was a loss to surging but sub-.500 Gardner-Webb that knocked CSU from the ranks of the top 10 in every FCS poll.

A month ago, Liberty was 1-3 and had just been shellacked at home by Jacksonville State to the tune of 48-19.  After the game, LU linebacker Dexter Robbins made the statement that Liberty would “be just fine” going forward.  True to his word, Liberty has now won five straight games and Robbins has been part of the reason for that, second on the team in total tackles with an interception to his credit as well as the crucial game-winning block on a field goal that allowed the Flames to defeat the aforementioned Gardner-Webb.

CSU has won the last two meetings with Liberty, 31-24 last year in North Charleston that effectively ended the Flames at-large hopes and 36-34 in Lynchburg, the year before that.  Liberty, however, had won nine straight against the Bucs, including a 56-14 win in 2013 that pushed a 10-win CSU squad completely out of playoff consideration.

Both teams have had issues under center this year.  CSU began the year with veteran leader Kyle Copeland at quarterback and Copeland played well against NDSU but was lost for the season with a knee injury a week later, forcing a cadre of redshirt freshmen to replace him.  Shane Bucenell has played the most frequently of the group with five starts to his credit.  The stars of the CSU offense, however, are the running backs, particularly Mike Holloway who is averaging 98 yards/game for the Bucs.

On the other side, Liberty also began the season with another player at the signal-caller position.  Stephon Masha, a veteran player like Copeland — but also a career backup – was inconsistent to start the season and the Flames’ coaching staff eventually opened up the quarterback competition.  That competition was won by true freshman Buckshot Calvert who has looked alternatively spectacular as well as … well, like a true freshman.  Also, like CSU, the strength of the Liberty offense in recent weeks has been the rushing attack and, in Liberty’s case, there’s a three-headed monster to deal with at running back.  Todd Macon has gotten the bulk of the first series’ reps but backfield-mate Carrington Mosley has provided big plays and big yards as has Frankie Hickson.

For all of that, this game will likely be decided on defense and that is where both teams excel.  The Flames and Bucs are 1-2 in virtually every defensive statistical category in Big South play.  The only appreciably difference is that Liberty has managed to take the ball away at nearly a 2:1 ratio to Charleston Southern.

*Interesting stat:  since 2012, Turner Gill’s first season at Liberty, the Flames are 14-2 in the month of November.  Both of those two losses have come at the hands of CSU. *

This one’s going to be fun.

What Liberty needs to do against CSU:  Get the turnovers and don’t give ‘em back.  As stingy as the LU defense has been in taking the ball away, the offense has been nearly that generous.  Part of that is the product of a young quarterback’s learning curve but, now, it’s playoff season where ball security is a must.

What CSU needs to do against Liberty: Win the 4th quarter.  Watching the Gardner-Webb game, it was the Bulldogs who looked like the better team, particularly late.   Perhaps that was a product of G-W being used to playing in dogfight games (no pun intended) whereas CSU had been blowing opponents out, but the upshot was that Gardner-Webb, despite being shorthanded on offense, had a will to win that CSU just could not or did not summon.

SOCON: Week 11 Preview

The Southern Conference games this week include some interesting match ups.  First we have the Military Classic of the South as The Citadel travels to Lexington Virginia to take on the Keydets of VMI.  Next, Wofford tries to make a statement for its playoff chances as the Terriers travel to Chattanooga.  The Western Carolina Catamounts visit Furman and try to notch another conference victory.  ETSU hosts NAIA Cumberland College.  And finally, The Mercer Bears will visit Samford and try and to ruin their playoff plans. (SOCON Weekly notes) 

#4 The Citadel at VMI 1:30PM (ESPN3) (The Citadel game notes) (VMI game notes)

It was only 55 years after the Civil War ended that these two teams first met on the gridiron in 1920. To put that in perspective, 55 years ago from today was only 1961. Heck, some of us can (almost, but not quite) remember back that far. To most football fans today, that is ancient history.

The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina and the Virginia Military Institute have already met 71 times. Each has played other teams more often, but this one is somewhat special. Besides being conference foes, the schools share a unique heritage and dare I say it, camaraderie. And while there isn’t necessarily any hate between the two, that doesn’t mean they will not play to their best ability and try to thump one another on the field. It just means they have a lot of respect for each other. The Army-Navy game might compare to this game, the Military Classic of the South.

The Citadel is bringing its best record in program history, 9-0, into Lexington. VMI is playing much better than they have, but is currently sporting a 3-6 record. The Citadel has the edge in the series 39-30-2, but they have won nine in a row out of the last ten. VMI had the series tied back in 2002, the year before they left for their 11 year association with the Big South.  At stake for The Citadel is an outright Southern Conference Championship.  If they lose and Chattanooga wins, they will have to share it again.   But just as important for both teams, the winner of this game will claim the coveted Silver Shako.

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The game will be played in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley in Lexington, Virginia. If you have never been there, it is worth the trip.

After its performance this past week, The Citadel is again the leading rushing team in FCS averaging 374 yards a game. They also average 60 yards a game passing.  It has 4 of the top ten rushers in the SOCON. The Bulldogs are also #15 in total defense in FCS allowing 309 yards a game. This includes 183 yards a game through the air and 126 on the ground. For the season, The Citadel has recorded 25 sacks. The Bulldogs are also at +7 in turnovers on the year.

VMI is averaging 369 yards a game including 117 on the ground and 252 through the air. The big question this game is whether Cobb will be back. I suspect he will, although the VMI game notes list his back up Austin Coulling as the starter. Cobb has gone 178/297 for 2142 yards with 9 TDs and 5 interceptions so far. He did not start last week for the Keydets after getting knocked out the week prior against Furman. On the ground, Keydet Daz Palmer is now at 10th in the SOCON in rushing with 457 yards on the year for 51 yards a game on average.

On defense, VMI has been allowing 443 yards a game including 165 on the ground and 278 passing. The passing should not be too much of a problem although the Dogs could always toss a few to keep them honest. The Dogs are only averaging 60 yards a game but their yards per completion is just over 16 yards which is good for #5 in FCS. The VMI defense has only 13 sacks all year but again, probably not a factor this week. The Citadel only passes about 9 times a game and it has suffered no sacks this year. VMI has got to stop the Bulldogs running game. The Keydets average about 6 tackles for loss a game which is not bad. But against The Citadel, they are going to need more. The Citadel gets tackled for a loss just 3 times a game on average.

On special team, the Dogs have a bit of advantage. They have a higher punting average and punt return average. It is about even for kickoffs and returns. The real advantage is in place kicking. VMI lost last week due to having 4 kicks blocked (2 XP, and 2 FGs). On the year they are just 7/19 on field goals and 17/21 on XPs. Meanwhile, The Citadel is 11/13 on FGs with some clutch ones for wins.

One area that should not be an issue in this game is penalties. Both of these teams are disciplined and average very few. VMI is #3 in FCS for the fewest penalties with just 35 all year. The Citadel is tied for 8th with just 43.

As always when playing The Citadel, VMI must figure out a way to get more offensive plays. The Citadel holds the ball almost 35 minutes a game. VMI averages just under 29 minutes a game. The Keydets need to figure out how to sustain some drives and keep it out of The Citadel’s hands. Samford’s used their strengths in the hurry up offense to do this. They ran 67 offensive plays which is pretty good considering they only held the ball for just under 22 minutes. Not sure VMI has that game tempo down.

The Bulldogs are coming off yet another very emotional game. If VMI can stay in the game, it might be able to break The Citadel’s spirit this week. But that probably isn’t going to happen. The Institute will be heard from on Saturday to be sure, but the Dogs should take their military brethren by 2-3 scores.

#22 Wofford at #7 Chattanooga 1:30PM (SOCON Network) (Chattanooga game notes) (Wofford game notes)

Wofford is a team on a bubble, the playoff bubble. At 6-3 and with only 5 Div I wins, the Terriers need to win this game, and their next, in order to have a comfortable shot at the FCS playoffs. The Mocs of Chattanooga need to win as well in order to preserve their shot at a seed in the playoffs. Now at 8-1 with Alabama the following week, the Mocs can’t afford to lose.

Chattanooga has been strong all year. They have been banged up a little, but it has not seemed to slow them down. They are averaging 37 points a game and gain an average of 445 yards each game. Their QB Alejandro Bennifield has gone 137/209 for 1890 yards with 19 TDs and only 5 interceptions. Derrick Craine, their start running back has been out a couple games but he should be healthy for this game. He averages over 100 yards a game. The Mocs offense is very balanced averaging 229 on the ground and 216 passing. They keep opposing defenses guessing.

On defense Chattanooga is extremely strong. They lead the SOCON and come in at #2 in FCS in scoring defense allowing only 14.8 points a game. They allow only 268 yards a game which also leads the SOCON and is #2 in FCS as well. Relevant to this game, they allow 124 a game rushing. They usually allow just double digits in rushing, but they did give up 342 against The Citadel and even WCU had a 300 yard day, although they had that game in hand. Against Wofford they will need to stop the clock chewing drives. The Mocs allow opponents to convert on third downs just 32% of the time and fourth downs 50% of the time. I include 4th downs because Wofford has gone for them 25 times so far in 9 games. And they are not bothered by doing it deep in their own territory as well. The Mocs also average 6.6 tackles for loss per game with just under three being sacks, but that should not be too much of an issue with Wofford passing just 9 times a game on average.

As good as the Mocs defense is, Wofford defense is right there with them. The Terriers allow just 273 yards a game which is good for #5 in FCS. Now, part of that is that they do not allow opposing teams to have the ball that much since they are #2 in FCS in average time of possession at over 34 minutes a game. But they are stingy in any event. They allow only 67 yards rushing each game which leads the SOCON and is good for #2 in FCS. A running team should be able to defend against it, and they can. One weakness on defense is that they do allow opposing teams to convert third downs 44% of the time. They bend a lot, but they don’t usually break. They do allow 206 yards passing a game, but they also have 9 interceptions.

On offense, they obviously run, and run, and run. Their scheme is bit different than The Citadel’s, but they get the job done. They average 298 yards a game rushing which is good for #5 in FCS. They average 74 yards passing. Their leading rusher is Lorenzo Long who currently leads the SOCON with 107 yards a game. He has 12 TD on the year as well. As I mentioned, one of their strengths is hogging the ball most of the game. That is, when they can hold onto it. They had done fairly well all year until they lost three fumbles against The Citadel which cost them the game, and three more against Furman which almost lost them the game. Overall they are still +6 in turnovers.

Both teams are fairly solid on special teams except in one area. Wofford’s has a kicker, David Marvin, who makes 50+ yard field goals on a regular basis. So far this year, he has made a 50, a 57, a 54, another 57, and he even attempted a 62 yarder, but didn’t make it. Overall he is 12/16. A kicker like that can come in handy.

It will be interesting to see how Chattanooga defends against the Terriers rushing attack. They were unable to stop The Citadel’s running game and held the ball just 20 minutes as a result. If that happens again, they are in trouble. Wofford had a time with Furman last week and although this is a critical game for them, they might be out of gas. The Mocs have taken the last three and they have the home field advantage. With so much on the line for Chattanooga, they should find a way to slow the Terriers and win by at least 10.

Western Carolina at Furman 3PM (TV-WMYA-local) (WCU game notes) (Furman game notes)

Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons. The Catamounts are 2-7 and 1-6 in the SOCON. The Paladins are 2-7 and 2-4 in conference play. Furman started the season with a brutal schedule and then it suffered a bunch of injuries. Then it fell to Kennesaw St, a program in its second year, and their fall from greatness was complete. But they have now gotten healthy, settled down with their Sr QB, and have clawed back with a couple victories. They took Wofford to the wire last week as well.

Furman is not a bad team. They have talent, but they have been lacking the formula to register wins. Resse Hannon took over at QB in the UTC game. He has gone 159/240 for 1973 yards with 17 TDs and 7 interceptions. Furman has only allowed 11 sacks all year. They have dismal running though. They only average 112 yards each game on the ground. It might be interesting to see Hannon run a bit more.  They convert third downs only about 38% of the time. By far, their problem has been turnovers this year. They are dead last in the SOCON at -10 on the year. They have been picking up the pace though and their offense in general has been improving. They averaged only 16 points a game in their first four games, but have averaged 38 a game ever since.

Facing them will be a defense that is a work in progress. After letting their defensive coordinator go before the last game, the Catamounts are trying to find themselves. They didn’t do real well against VMI this past week allowing 453 yards in the game. On the year they have giving up a conference worse 504 yards a game. So maybe it is an improvement.  Most of these yards have been on the ground and they limit passing to 216 yards a game. They only have 9 sacks on the year though. One area that has hurt them is that they allow opponents to convert on third downs 53% of the time. They are also last in the SOCON in time of possession at only 25 minutes a game.

One bright spot for WCU is their special teams. They blocked four kicks last week and forced a fumble and scored covering a kickoff return.

On offense the Cats are ok. They average 382 yards a game with 144 rushing and 239 passing. Their redshirt freshman QB Tyrie Adams is going to be a good one. On the year he is 191/297 for 2142 yards with 14 TDs and 9 interceptions. However, they have allowed a conference worse 25 sacks this year.  One of their best weapons on offense is running back Detrez Newsome. He also returns kickoffs and catches a few passes as well. Overall, he averages 192 all purpose yards a game. He is dangerous. One area that has hurt WCU is turnovers. They are -4 on the year.

The Paladin defense facing them is pretty good. They had a few failures this year when they were down due to injuries, but they are usually effective. On the year they allowed an average of 364 yards a game. This includes only 167 passing yards. They allow opponent to convert third downs 38% of the time. They only have 9 sacks on the year though.

If Furman can continue to generate some points and limit the turnovers, they shouldn’t have a problem this week. WCU needs to also limit the turnovers, protect its QB a bit better, and have their defense step up. If they can, they can give Furman some fits. However, with all the turmoil that must be going on with their defense, stopping a revitalized Furman team will be a tall order. Oh, one more thing that should motivate Furman is that they have not won at home since the beginning of Oct…2015.   Look for Furman to win by at least two scores.

Cumberland College at ETSU 12:45PM (SOCON Network)

The ETSU Bucs gave Mercer everything they had last week, but came up just short. This week should be easier. ETSU will host the Cumberland College Phoenix for their homecoming.

ETSU is 2-7 overall and 1-6 in the SOCON. They did open the season well notching wins against Kennesaw St and WCU, but it has been tough ever since. Last week’s performance against Mercer was by far one of their best this year.

ETSU scored 13 points last week. That was an improvement. Against SOCON opponents, they haven’t scored more than 10 since week 2. On average they gain just 280 yards a game. They did gain 372 last week against Mercer so they are certainly capable of it. They are a fairly balanced offense with 154 yards a game passing and 126 yards rushing. Their QB, Austin Herink has gone132/224 for 1294 yards with 5 TDs and only 4 interceptions. ETSU has given up 25 sacks though. They do convert third downs almost 40% of the time, so they can sustain drives. They also have a 92% success rate n the red zone. They just haven’t been there very much.

On defense, they have allowed 31 points a game. But they have only allowed 398 yards a game which is good enough for 5 in the SOCON. Those yards include 213 rushing and 185 passing. They have recorded only 13 sacks on the year. The Bucs have only 2 interceptions so far. They allow third down conversion about 41% of the time.

The Bucs have been doing better in penalties and they only average 60 yards a game now. They are about even in time of possession and are +6 in turnovers, so they are playing heads up ball.

On a note of interest, the coach for Cumberland, Donnie Stuber, will be able to have a little family reunion as his son is a red shirt freshman on the ETSU roster.

Cumberland is 5-5 on the year but shouldn’t pose much of a problem for the Bucs. They should win by 4-5 scores.

Mercer at #14 Samford 3:30PM (ESPN3) (Samford game notes) (Mercer game notes)

At 6-3 the Samford Bulldogs can’t drop either of its two remaining games if it wants to make the playoffs. With a probable win next week against ETSU, they have to take care of business against the Mercer Bears this week. After two weeks of pretty emotional games, Samford should be eager to get back on the field and score a victory.

Samford is an offensive machine. They average about 40 points a game. They gain 470 yards a week in one of the best defensive conferences in FCS. Their QB, Devlin Hodges has 3193 yards passing this year. That is good for #3 in FCS. He has gone 289/413 with 30 TDs and 8 interceptions. With Hodges only a sophomore this year, Samford will have some good seasons ahead. With Hodges at the helm Samford scores very quickly. They have 27 scoring drives under two minutes this year. Between Karel Hamilton, Kelvin McKnight, and Emmanuel Obajimi, they catch 22 passes a game on average.

Hodges also did something last game he hasn’t done very much this year. He ran against The Citadel and he had 94 yards. Not sure why he hasn’t done that sooner, but it worked. Samford is in last place in the SOCON in rushing at 103 yards a game. They have made a concerted effort to try and run more and they have the last three games.

On defense the Bulldogs have had a few issues. They have a few injuries as well. Samford has been allowing 427 yards a game including 211 rushing and 216 passing. That was skewed a bit by the huge passing numbers that Miss St and rushing that that The Citadel put up, but they have still allowed a lot this year. Their best way to negate this has been to score more. They do, however, allow third downs only about 37% of the time.

Mercer has been doing fairly well this year at 3-3 in conference play. They have a capable QB in Sr John Russ. He has gone 185/299 for 1971 yards with 17 TDs and 6 interceptions. He does have some legs on him as well and can run when need be. Hopefully for the Bears, they have a replacement all lined up for him. At running back, Mercer apparently has lots of injuries so it is anyone’s guess as to who will start. They have been averaging 163 yards a game, but this might take a hit depending on who is healthy.

On defense Mercer is not bad. They have allowed 406 yards a game including 171 rushing and 235 passing. That is not good news with Hodges against them. The Bears do have 20 sacks and 6 interceptions, but Hodges gets rid of the ball so fast most of the time, there isn’t a lot of opportunity to sack him. It’s usually a coverage sack that gets him and I am not sure Mercer’s secondary is up to defending against the Samford receivers.  Mercer has a negative time of possession at 28:29 and they allow opponents to convert third downs 42% of the time.

Both teams have done well in turnovers and are at +5 for Samford and +4 for Mercer. Mercer continues to have issues with penalties and averages over 77 yards a game. I can see them getting called a lot for interference this game.

Last year Samford traveled to Macon and put a hurt on the Bears 47-21 and ruined their chance at a winning season. With so much on the line for Samford this year, and being at home, expect the Bulldogs to dominate Mercer and win by at least three scores.

Must Watch Week 11

Only two more weeks left in the regular season. Here are the games you must watch as conference championships and at-large bids are decided:

Friday, November 11th Time(CST) TV
Harvard @ Penn 7:00pm NBCSN
Saturday, November 12th
James Madison @ Villanova 12:00pm STREAM
Wofford @ Chattanooga 1:00pm STREAM
Maine @ Stony Brook 1:00pm STREAM
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota 1:00pm STREAM
South Dakota @ South Dakota State 2:00pm ESPN3
Southern Utah @ BYU 2:00pm ESPN3
Delaware @ Richmond 2:30pm STREAM
Charleston Southern @ Liberty 2:30pm ESPN3
Nicholls State @ Central Arkansas 3:00pm STREAM
  • The action starts Friday night with an Ivy League battle that will either give Harvard the 2016 championship or put some tiebreaker scenarios into play for the final weekend.
  • James Madison is coming off of their biggest game of the season and this week will be the same high stakes when they take on Villanova with the CAA title on the line. If JMU wins, they win the CAA. If they lose, well that’s a mess. You can find the AGS discussion about the autobid tiebreaker scenarios here.
  • Wofford’s season is on life support, but a win over Chattanooga could put them on the right side of the bubble. Chattanooga is still fighting for a seed and needs this win to make it happen.
  • This is quite the battle as the loser of this game is most likely out of the playoff race. While teams have gotten into the field at 6-5 and the loser of this game would be sitting as the 6th place team in the CAA. Maine has won five of their last six while Stony Brook has lost the last two.
  • Northern Arizona might have a slim chance at the playoffs if they can win out, but this game may be more about playing the spoiler. North Dakota has won eight straight games and is battling for a seed and a bye in the playoffs. This is UND’s last game of the season so you have to imagine they will leave it all on the field.
  • The battle of South Dakota’s two Division I football programs should be quite the battle this year. South Dakota is looking much improved under first year head coach Bob Nielson and South Dakota State has a high scoring offense. Should be a back and forth game in Brookings.
  • Southern Utah is another team on the playoff bubble. A win over an in-state FBS opponent like BYU might be just what it takes for them to grab one of the last spots in the field.
  • Richmond had a back and forth battle with James Madison last weekend and Delaware is hoping that the Spiders are still hurting from the loss. Richmond still has a shot at a seed in the playoffs and Delaware is trying to finish to season on a high note.
  • The Big South’s entry into the FCS playoffs will be decided in Lynchburg on Saturday when Charleston Southern visits Liberty. The Buccaneers took an expected loss from Gardner-Webb last week and their at-large chances look slim. They need a win to knock Liberty from the top of the standings.
  • Central Arkansas has some on strong in the Southland and Nicholls State has shocked quite a few teams this year with their strong performances. This will be the Bears last tune-up before a season ending match-up with Sam Houston State.

SLC: Week 11 preview

Week 10 has wrapped up, and there were not any surprises in the conference. Sam Houston and Central Arkansas both notched wins over McNeese and Stephen F Austin respectively, and with the win, they are on a collision course for a Southland Conference title showdown next weekend in Huntsville (barring any shockers this weekend). Nicholls State, Southeastern Louisiana, and Abilene Christian won the games they were favored in, and Houston Baptist took the loss at Texas-El Paso.

Without further ado, here’s your week 10 “Rev”-elations.

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Stephen F Austin at Houston Baptist

Clint Conque looked to pull an upset against his former school, and the SFA defense tried to make it happen, forcing six UCA turnovers, however the Lumberjack offense just couldn’t move the ball on the stout Bear defense, and UCA took the win 34-14. SFA has to win out the two remaining games to finish above .500, and you have to think Conque’s days are numbered in Nacogdoches. This week, the Jacks head to Houston to take on Houston Baptist. The Huskies are coming in off of an out of conference loss vs UTEP, and HBU has shown quite a bit of improvement this year. While not powerful enough to win the conference, they are also showing that they may not be the perennial cellar dweller of the Southland. I think they actually will have SFA’s number this week, and Houston Baptist will take it 28-24.

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Nicholls State at Central Arkansas

Here is your Southland conference game of the week, and if there was a team who could easily wreck the Bears’ season, it’s the Colonels of Nicholls State. They come into this game coming off of a Thursday night win against the Lamar Cardinals, and the extra two days should have helped rest their defense and get them ready for the challenge of stopping the Bears. While Nicholls’ offense is nothing to write home about, their defense is one of the best in conference and has kept them in their games. Central Arkansas boasts, in my opinion, the best defense in the conference, and while their offense starts off slow, the UCA defense allows them to still win. This isn’t going to be a high scoring game, and if you like defensive matchups, I suggest sitting down and watching this. Can Nicholls State ruin the Bears’ bid at a Southland Conference championship? Had this game been in Thibodaux, I might have said yes, but I think UCA gets the benefit of the stripes and wins 21-17.

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Incarnate Word at Lamar

There is going to be a lot of red in the stands this weekend at Provost Umphrey Stadium as the Cardinals of Incarnate Word take on the Cardinals of Lamar. Incarnate Word is currently 1-6 in the conference and while they hung in with Sam, McNeese, and SFA, they just do not have the talent to be a SLC contender at the moment. Lamar is coming in without Earp and without Harrington and are basically testing out what their team will be like next season. Coach Ray Woodard should have a busy offseason trying to develop a new game plan that will replace the power that is Kade Harrington. I can guarantee to you that the Cardinals win! Lamar takes this 24-10 over UIW.

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Abilene Christian at Southeastern Louisiana

The good news for Abilene Christian fans is that the Wildcats won their last game ever at Shotwell Stadium, and next time they see them at home, it will be in a brand new facility. Other than that, it has definitely been a season to forget for the purple and white. They are off to Hammond to take on Southeastern, who are in a bit of an interesting spot. If they can win out their final games, they would finish 7-2 in conference. They are technically out of the running for the Championship (since UCA and Sam play each other), but do they have a strong enough resume and record to earn an at-large bid? That’s up to the committee to decide. This game shouldn’t be close, and the Lions are going to roar, beating ACU 42-17.
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Sam Houston at Northwestern State

There isn’t really much to say about this game. You have one team who has just destroyed their conference opposition going against a team who has yet to beat a conference opponent. The one aspect to this is that every season, K.C. Keeler finds a way to lose to a team that he shouldn’t lose to. This has happened to Sam in recent years with losses to Colorado State-Pueblo and to Lamar. With Central Arkansas looming on the schedule, could this be a trap game for the Kats? As much as some would like it to be, I doubt it happens and Sam wins 63-0.

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