SOCON: Week 11 Preview

The Southern Conference games this week include some interesting match ups.  First we have the Military Classic of the South as The Citadel travels to Lexington Virginia to take on the Keydets of VMI.  Next, Wofford tries to make a statement for its playoff chances as the Terriers travel to Chattanooga.  The Western Carolina Catamounts visit Furman and try to notch another conference victory.  ETSU hosts NAIA Cumberland College.  And finally, The Mercer Bears will visit Samford and try and to ruin their playoff plans. (SOCON Weekly notes) 

#4 The Citadel at VMI 1:30PM (ESPN3) (The Citadel game notes) (VMI game notes)

It was only 55 years after the Civil War ended that these two teams first met on the gridiron in 1920. To put that in perspective, 55 years ago from today was only 1961. Heck, some of us can (almost, but not quite) remember back that far. To most football fans today, that is ancient history.

The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina and the Virginia Military Institute have already met 71 times. Each has played other teams more often, but this one is somewhat special. Besides being conference foes, the schools share a unique heritage and dare I say it, camaraderie. And while there isn’t necessarily any hate between the two, that doesn’t mean they will not play to their best ability and try to thump one another on the field. It just means they have a lot of respect for each other. The Army-Navy game might compare to this game, the Military Classic of the South.

The Citadel is bringing its best record in program history, 9-0, into Lexington. VMI is playing much better than they have, but is currently sporting a 3-6 record. The Citadel has the edge in the series 39-30-2, but they have won nine in a row out of the last ten. VMI had the series tied back in 2002, the year before they left for their 11 year association with the Big South.  At stake for The Citadel is an outright Southern Conference Championship.  If they lose and Chattanooga wins, they will have to share it again.   But just as important for both teams, the winner of this game will claim the coveted Silver Shako.

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The game will be played in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley in Lexington, Virginia. If you have never been there, it is worth the trip.

After its performance this past week, The Citadel is again the leading rushing team in FCS averaging 374 yards a game. They also average 60 yards a game passing.  It has 4 of the top ten rushers in the SOCON. The Bulldogs are also #15 in total defense in FCS allowing 309 yards a game. This includes 183 yards a game through the air and 126 on the ground. For the season, The Citadel has recorded 25 sacks. The Bulldogs are also at +7 in turnovers on the year.

VMI is averaging 369 yards a game including 117 on the ground and 252 through the air. The big question this game is whether Cobb will be back. I suspect he will, although the VMI game notes list his back up Austin Coulling as the starter. Cobb has gone 178/297 for 2142 yards with 9 TDs and 5 interceptions so far. He did not start last week for the Keydets after getting knocked out the week prior against Furman. On the ground, Keydet Daz Palmer is now at 10th in the SOCON in rushing with 457 yards on the year for 51 yards a game on average.

On defense, VMI has been allowing 443 yards a game including 165 on the ground and 278 passing. The passing should not be too much of a problem although the Dogs could always toss a few to keep them honest. The Dogs are only averaging 60 yards a game but their yards per completion is just over 16 yards which is good for #5 in FCS. The VMI defense has only 13 sacks all year but again, probably not a factor this week. The Citadel only passes about 9 times a game and it has suffered no sacks this year. VMI has got to stop the Bulldogs running game. The Keydets average about 6 tackles for loss a game which is not bad. But against The Citadel, they are going to need more. The Citadel gets tackled for a loss just 3 times a game on average.

On special team, the Dogs have a bit of advantage. They have a higher punting average and punt return average. It is about even for kickoffs and returns. The real advantage is in place kicking. VMI lost last week due to having 4 kicks blocked (2 XP, and 2 FGs). On the year they are just 7/19 on field goals and 17/21 on XPs. Meanwhile, The Citadel is 11/13 on FGs with some clutch ones for wins.

One area that should not be an issue in this game is penalties. Both of these teams are disciplined and average very few. VMI is #3 in FCS for the fewest penalties with just 35 all year. The Citadel is tied for 8th with just 43.

As always when playing The Citadel, VMI must figure out a way to get more offensive plays. The Citadel holds the ball almost 35 minutes a game. VMI averages just under 29 minutes a game. The Keydets need to figure out how to sustain some drives and keep it out of The Citadel’s hands. Samford’s used their strengths in the hurry up offense to do this. They ran 67 offensive plays which is pretty good considering they only held the ball for just under 22 minutes. Not sure VMI has that game tempo down.

The Bulldogs are coming off yet another very emotional game. If VMI can stay in the game, it might be able to break The Citadel’s spirit this week. But that probably isn’t going to happen. The Institute will be heard from on Saturday to be sure, but the Dogs should take their military brethren by 2-3 scores.

#22 Wofford at #7 Chattanooga 1:30PM (SOCON Network) (Chattanooga game notes) (Wofford game notes)

Wofford is a team on a bubble, the playoff bubble. At 6-3 and with only 5 Div I wins, the Terriers need to win this game, and their next, in order to have a comfortable shot at the FCS playoffs. The Mocs of Chattanooga need to win as well in order to preserve their shot at a seed in the playoffs. Now at 8-1 with Alabama the following week, the Mocs can’t afford to lose.

Chattanooga has been strong all year. They have been banged up a little, but it has not seemed to slow them down. They are averaging 37 points a game and gain an average of 445 yards each game. Their QB Alejandro Bennifield has gone 137/209 for 1890 yards with 19 TDs and only 5 interceptions. Derrick Craine, their start running back has been out a couple games but he should be healthy for this game. He averages over 100 yards a game. The Mocs offense is very balanced averaging 229 on the ground and 216 passing. They keep opposing defenses guessing.

On defense Chattanooga is extremely strong. They lead the SOCON and come in at #2 in FCS in scoring defense allowing only 14.8 points a game. They allow only 268 yards a game which also leads the SOCON and is #2 in FCS as well. Relevant to this game, they allow 124 a game rushing. They usually allow just double digits in rushing, but they did give up 342 against The Citadel and even WCU had a 300 yard day, although they had that game in hand. Against Wofford they will need to stop the clock chewing drives. The Mocs allow opponents to convert on third downs just 32% of the time and fourth downs 50% of the time. I include 4th downs because Wofford has gone for them 25 times so far in 9 games. And they are not bothered by doing it deep in their own territory as well. The Mocs also average 6.6 tackles for loss per game with just under three being sacks, but that should not be too much of an issue with Wofford passing just 9 times a game on average.

As good as the Mocs defense is, Wofford defense is right there with them. The Terriers allow just 273 yards a game which is good for #5 in FCS. Now, part of that is that they do not allow opposing teams to have the ball that much since they are #2 in FCS in average time of possession at over 34 minutes a game. But they are stingy in any event. They allow only 67 yards rushing each game which leads the SOCON and is good for #2 in FCS. A running team should be able to defend against it, and they can. One weakness on defense is that they do allow opposing teams to convert third downs 44% of the time. They bend a lot, but they don’t usually break. They do allow 206 yards passing a game, but they also have 9 interceptions.

On offense, they obviously run, and run, and run. Their scheme is bit different than The Citadel’s, but they get the job done. They average 298 yards a game rushing which is good for #5 in FCS. They average 74 yards passing. Their leading rusher is Lorenzo Long who currently leads the SOCON with 107 yards a game. He has 12 TD on the year as well. As I mentioned, one of their strengths is hogging the ball most of the game. That is, when they can hold onto it. They had done fairly well all year until they lost three fumbles against The Citadel which cost them the game, and three more against Furman which almost lost them the game. Overall they are still +6 in turnovers.

Both teams are fairly solid on special teams except in one area. Wofford’s has a kicker, David Marvin, who makes 50+ yard field goals on a regular basis. So far this year, he has made a 50, a 57, a 54, another 57, and he even attempted a 62 yarder, but didn’t make it. Overall he is 12/16. A kicker like that can come in handy.

It will be interesting to see how Chattanooga defends against the Terriers rushing attack. They were unable to stop The Citadel’s running game and held the ball just 20 minutes as a result. If that happens again, they are in trouble. Wofford had a time with Furman last week and although this is a critical game for them, they might be out of gas. The Mocs have taken the last three and they have the home field advantage. With so much on the line for Chattanooga, they should find a way to slow the Terriers and win by at least 10.

Western Carolina at Furman 3PM (TV-WMYA-local) (WCU game notes) (Furman game notes)

Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons. The Catamounts are 2-7 and 1-6 in the SOCON. The Paladins are 2-7 and 2-4 in conference play. Furman started the season with a brutal schedule and then it suffered a bunch of injuries. Then it fell to Kennesaw St, a program in its second year, and their fall from greatness was complete. But they have now gotten healthy, settled down with their Sr QB, and have clawed back with a couple victories. They took Wofford to the wire last week as well.

Furman is not a bad team. They have talent, but they have been lacking the formula to register wins. Resse Hannon took over at QB in the UTC game. He has gone 159/240 for 1973 yards with 17 TDs and 7 interceptions. Furman has only allowed 11 sacks all year. They have dismal running though. They only average 112 yards each game on the ground. It might be interesting to see Hannon run a bit more.  They convert third downs only about 38% of the time. By far, their problem has been turnovers this year. They are dead last in the SOCON at -10 on the year. They have been picking up the pace though and their offense in general has been improving. They averaged only 16 points a game in their first four games, but have averaged 38 a game ever since.

Facing them will be a defense that is a work in progress. After letting their defensive coordinator go before the last game, the Catamounts are trying to find themselves. They didn’t do real well against VMI this past week allowing 453 yards in the game. On the year they have giving up a conference worse 504 yards a game. So maybe it is an improvement.  Most of these yards have been on the ground and they limit passing to 216 yards a game. They only have 9 sacks on the year though. One area that has hurt them is that they allow opponents to convert on third downs 53% of the time. They are also last in the SOCON in time of possession at only 25 minutes a game.

One bright spot for WCU is their special teams. They blocked four kicks last week and forced a fumble and scored covering a kickoff return.

On offense the Cats are ok. They average 382 yards a game with 144 rushing and 239 passing. Their redshirt freshman QB Tyrie Adams is going to be a good one. On the year he is 191/297 for 2142 yards with 14 TDs and 9 interceptions. However, they have allowed a conference worse 25 sacks this year.  One of their best weapons on offense is running back Detrez Newsome. He also returns kickoffs and catches a few passes as well. Overall, he averages 192 all purpose yards a game. He is dangerous. One area that has hurt WCU is turnovers. They are -4 on the year.

The Paladin defense facing them is pretty good. They had a few failures this year when they were down due to injuries, but they are usually effective. On the year they allowed an average of 364 yards a game. This includes only 167 passing yards. They allow opponent to convert third downs 38% of the time. They only have 9 sacks on the year though.

If Furman can continue to generate some points and limit the turnovers, they shouldn’t have a problem this week. WCU needs to also limit the turnovers, protect its QB a bit better, and have their defense step up. If they can, they can give Furman some fits. However, with all the turmoil that must be going on with their defense, stopping a revitalized Furman team will be a tall order. Oh, one more thing that should motivate Furman is that they have not won at home since the beginning of Oct…2015.   Look for Furman to win by at least two scores.

Cumberland College at ETSU 12:45PM (SOCON Network)

The ETSU Bucs gave Mercer everything they had last week, but came up just short. This week should be easier. ETSU will host the Cumberland College Phoenix for their homecoming.

ETSU is 2-7 overall and 1-6 in the SOCON. They did open the season well notching wins against Kennesaw St and WCU, but it has been tough ever since. Last week’s performance against Mercer was by far one of their best this year.

ETSU scored 13 points last week. That was an improvement. Against SOCON opponents, they haven’t scored more than 10 since week 2. On average they gain just 280 yards a game. They did gain 372 last week against Mercer so they are certainly capable of it. They are a fairly balanced offense with 154 yards a game passing and 126 yards rushing. Their QB, Austin Herink has gone132/224 for 1294 yards with 5 TDs and only 4 interceptions. ETSU has given up 25 sacks though. They do convert third downs almost 40% of the time, so they can sustain drives. They also have a 92% success rate n the red zone. They just haven’t been there very much.

On defense, they have allowed 31 points a game. But they have only allowed 398 yards a game which is good enough for 5 in the SOCON. Those yards include 213 rushing and 185 passing. They have recorded only 13 sacks on the year. The Bucs have only 2 interceptions so far. They allow third down conversion about 41% of the time.

The Bucs have been doing better in penalties and they only average 60 yards a game now. They are about even in time of possession and are +6 in turnovers, so they are playing heads up ball.

On a note of interest, the coach for Cumberland, Donnie Stuber, will be able to have a little family reunion as his son is a red shirt freshman on the ETSU roster.

Cumberland is 5-5 on the year but shouldn’t pose much of a problem for the Bucs. They should win by 4-5 scores.

Mercer at #14 Samford 3:30PM (ESPN3) (Samford game notes) (Mercer game notes)

At 6-3 the Samford Bulldogs can’t drop either of its two remaining games if it wants to make the playoffs. With a probable win next week against ETSU, they have to take care of business against the Mercer Bears this week. After two weeks of pretty emotional games, Samford should be eager to get back on the field and score a victory.

Samford is an offensive machine. They average about 40 points a game. They gain 470 yards a week in one of the best defensive conferences in FCS. Their QB, Devlin Hodges has 3193 yards passing this year. That is good for #3 in FCS. He has gone 289/413 with 30 TDs and 8 interceptions. With Hodges only a sophomore this year, Samford will have some good seasons ahead. With Hodges at the helm Samford scores very quickly. They have 27 scoring drives under two minutes this year. Between Karel Hamilton, Kelvin McKnight, and Emmanuel Obajimi, they catch 22 passes a game on average.

Hodges also did something last game he hasn’t done very much this year. He ran against The Citadel and he had 94 yards. Not sure why he hasn’t done that sooner, but it worked. Samford is in last place in the SOCON in rushing at 103 yards a game. They have made a concerted effort to try and run more and they have the last three games.

On defense the Bulldogs have had a few issues. They have a few injuries as well. Samford has been allowing 427 yards a game including 211 rushing and 216 passing. That was skewed a bit by the huge passing numbers that Miss St and rushing that that The Citadel put up, but they have still allowed a lot this year. Their best way to negate this has been to score more. They do, however, allow third downs only about 37% of the time.

Mercer has been doing fairly well this year at 3-3 in conference play. They have a capable QB in Sr John Russ. He has gone 185/299 for 1971 yards with 17 TDs and 6 interceptions. He does have some legs on him as well and can run when need be. Hopefully for the Bears, they have a replacement all lined up for him. At running back, Mercer apparently has lots of injuries so it is anyone’s guess as to who will start. They have been averaging 163 yards a game, but this might take a hit depending on who is healthy.

On defense Mercer is not bad. They have allowed 406 yards a game including 171 rushing and 235 passing. That is not good news with Hodges against them. The Bears do have 20 sacks and 6 interceptions, but Hodges gets rid of the ball so fast most of the time, there isn’t a lot of opportunity to sack him. It’s usually a coverage sack that gets him and I am not sure Mercer’s secondary is up to defending against the Samford receivers.  Mercer has a negative time of possession at 28:29 and they allow opponents to convert third downs 42% of the time.

Both teams have done well in turnovers and are at +5 for Samford and +4 for Mercer. Mercer continues to have issues with penalties and averages over 77 yards a game. I can see them getting called a lot for interference this game.

Last year Samford traveled to Macon and put a hurt on the Bears 47-21 and ruined their chance at a winning season. With so much on the line for Samford this year, and being at home, expect the Bulldogs to dominate Mercer and win by at least three scores.

Must Watch Week 11

Only two more weeks left in the regular season. Here are the games you must watch as conference championships and at-large bids are decided:

Friday, November 11th Time(CST) TV
Harvard @ Penn 7:00pm NBCSN
Saturday, November 12th
James Madison @ Villanova 12:00pm STREAM
Wofford @ Chattanooga 1:00pm STREAM
Maine @ Stony Brook 1:00pm STREAM
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota 1:00pm STREAM
South Dakota @ South Dakota State 2:00pm ESPN3
Southern Utah @ BYU 2:00pm ESPN3
Delaware @ Richmond 2:30pm STREAM
Charleston Southern @ Liberty 2:30pm ESPN3
Nicholls State @ Central Arkansas 3:00pm STREAM
  • The action starts Friday night with an Ivy League battle that will either give Harvard the 2016 championship or put some tiebreaker scenarios into play for the final weekend.
  • James Madison is coming off of their biggest game of the season and this week will be the same high stakes when they take on Villanova with the CAA title on the line. If JMU wins, they win the CAA. If they lose, well that’s a mess. You can find the AGS discussion about the autobid tiebreaker scenarios here.
  • Wofford’s season is on life support, but a win over Chattanooga could put them on the right side of the bubble. Chattanooga is still fighting for a seed and needs this win to make it happen.
  • This is quite the battle as the loser of this game is most likely out of the playoff race. While teams have gotten into the field at 6-5 and the loser of this game would be sitting as the 6th place team in the CAA. Maine has won five of their last six while Stony Brook has lost the last two.
  • Northern Arizona might have a slim chance at the playoffs if they can win out, but this game may be more about playing the spoiler. North Dakota has won eight straight games and is battling for a seed and a bye in the playoffs. This is UND’s last game of the season so you have to imagine they will leave it all on the field.
  • The battle of South Dakota’s two Division I football programs should be quite the battle this year. South Dakota is looking much improved under first year head coach Bob Nielson and South Dakota State has a high scoring offense. Should be a back and forth game in Brookings.
  • Southern Utah is another team on the playoff bubble. A win over an in-state FBS opponent like BYU might be just what it takes for them to grab one of the last spots in the field.
  • Richmond had a back and forth battle with James Madison last weekend and Delaware is hoping that the Spiders are still hurting from the loss. Richmond still has a shot at a seed in the playoffs and Delaware is trying to finish to season on a high note.
  • The Big South’s entry into the FCS playoffs will be decided in Lynchburg on Saturday when Charleston Southern visits Liberty. The Buccaneers took an expected loss from Gardner-Webb last week and their at-large chances look slim. They need a win to knock Liberty from the top of the standings.
  • Central Arkansas has some on strong in the Southland and Nicholls State has shocked quite a few teams this year with their strong performances. This will be the Bears last tune-up before a season ending match-up with Sam Houston State.

SLC: Week 11 preview

Week 10 has wrapped up, and there were not any surprises in the conference. Sam Houston and Central Arkansas both notched wins over McNeese and Stephen F Austin respectively, and with the win, they are on a collision course for a Southland Conference title showdown next weekend in Huntsville (barring any shockers this weekend). Nicholls State, Southeastern Louisiana, and Abilene Christian won the games they were favored in, and Houston Baptist took the loss at Texas-El Paso.

Without further ado, here’s your week 10 “Rev”-elations.

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Stephen F Austin at Houston Baptist

Clint Conque looked to pull an upset against his former school, and the SFA defense tried to make it happen, forcing six UCA turnovers, however the Lumberjack offense just couldn’t move the ball on the stout Bear defense, and UCA took the win 34-14. SFA has to win out the two remaining games to finish above .500, and you have to think Conque’s days are numbered in Nacogdoches. This week, the Jacks head to Houston to take on Houston Baptist. The Huskies are coming in off of an out of conference loss vs UTEP, and HBU has shown quite a bit of improvement this year. While not powerful enough to win the conference, they are also showing that they may not be the perennial cellar dweller of the Southland. I think they actually will have SFA’s number this week, and Houston Baptist will take it 28-24.

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Nicholls State at Central Arkansas

Here is your Southland conference game of the week, and if there was a team who could easily wreck the Bears’ season, it’s the Colonels of Nicholls State. They come into this game coming off of a Thursday night win against the Lamar Cardinals, and the extra two days should have helped rest their defense and get them ready for the challenge of stopping the Bears. While Nicholls’ offense is nothing to write home about, their defense is one of the best in conference and has kept them in their games. Central Arkansas boasts, in my opinion, the best defense in the conference, and while their offense starts off slow, the UCA defense allows them to still win. This isn’t going to be a high scoring game, and if you like defensive matchups, I suggest sitting down and watching this. Can Nicholls State ruin the Bears’ bid at a Southland Conference championship? Had this game been in Thibodaux, I might have said yes, but I think UCA gets the benefit of the stripes and wins 21-17.

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Incarnate Word at Lamar

There is going to be a lot of red in the stands this weekend at Provost Umphrey Stadium as the Cardinals of Incarnate Word take on the Cardinals of Lamar. Incarnate Word is currently 1-6 in the conference and while they hung in with Sam, McNeese, and SFA, they just do not have the talent to be a SLC contender at the moment. Lamar is coming in without Earp and without Harrington and are basically testing out what their team will be like next season. Coach Ray Woodard should have a busy offseason trying to develop a new game plan that will replace the power that is Kade Harrington. I can guarantee to you that the Cardinals win! Lamar takes this 24-10 over UIW.

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Abilene Christian at Southeastern Louisiana

The good news for Abilene Christian fans is that the Wildcats won their last game ever at Shotwell Stadium, and next time they see them at home, it will be in a brand new facility. Other than that, it has definitely been a season to forget for the purple and white. They are off to Hammond to take on Southeastern, who are in a bit of an interesting spot. If they can win out their final games, they would finish 7-2 in conference. They are technically out of the running for the Championship (since UCA and Sam play each other), but do they have a strong enough resume and record to earn an at-large bid? That’s up to the committee to decide. This game shouldn’t be close, and the Lions are going to roar, beating ACU 42-17.
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Sam Houston at Northwestern State

There isn’t really much to say about this game. You have one team who has just destroyed their conference opposition going against a team who has yet to beat a conference opponent. The one aspect to this is that every season, K.C. Keeler finds a way to lose to a team that he shouldn’t lose to. This has happened to Sam in recent years with losses to Colorado State-Pueblo and to Lamar. With Central Arkansas looming on the schedule, could this be a trap game for the Kats? As much as some would like it to be, I doubt it happens and Sam wins 63-0.

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Big Sky Review and Power Rankings: Week 10

Big Sky

Week 10 is now completed in Big Sky Conference play and there are two teams left standing at the top of the conference and we’re no closer to deciding a champion. The picture could become clearer this weekend with North Dakota hosting a red hot Northern Arizona team. Depending on the result of that game we could see Eastern Washington heading into the final week of the season with the conference lead. Yes, Idaho State fans, I’m saying you probably have no chance of beating Eastern Washington on the road this week.

Eastern Washington continued their dominance of the Big Sky by taking down a tough Cal Poly team on the road. That was a big hurdle for the Eagles to clear on their path to the top of the Big Sky. Poly got big games from Dano Graves and Joe Protheroe, however, the Mustangs discovered that slowing down the Eastern Washington offense is an exercise in futility.

Northern Arizona continued to end their season on a high note by dispatching a talented Weber State team on the road. The Lumberjacks got up on the Wildcats early and didn’t quit piling on points after that. If only Northern Arizona hadn’t had such a collapse to start the season. After getting off to a slightly slow start Southern Utah put it together and put up a lot of points on a pretty helpless Montana State team. Montana State quarterback Chris Murray accounted for three touchdown.. but also three turnovers. The Cats rushed for 214 yards on the Thunderbirds but that doesn’t matter when you lost by 17 points.

To wrap up the weekend Montana and Idaho State had a track meet in Missoula. For much of the game it felt like the first to 80 was going to be the winner. Neither team made it to 80, but if you like offense there was plenty of that! Chad Chalich threw for a Montana record seven touchdowns, and rushed for one other. He was in for started Brady Gustafson who was injured. Portland State quickly dispatched UC-Davis in the Big Sky pillow fight of the week.

Scores

Montana State 21
Southern Utah 38

Northern Arizona 33
Weber State 20

North Dakota 23
Northern Colorado 13

Portland State 51
UC-Davis 29

Idaho State 44
Montana 62

Eastern Washington 42
Cal Poly 21

Big Sky Player of the Week

Chad Chalich, quarterback, Montana. Chalich was 21-27 for 388 yards and seven touchdowns and rushed for 52 yards and one touchdown as the Griz defeated Idaho State this past weekend in relief of the injured Brady Gustafson.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington. 27/37, 357 yards, 4 touchdowns. 40 yards rushing.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington. 11 receptions, 154 yards, 1 touchdown.
Emmanuel Butler, WR, Northern Arizona. 9 receptions, 157 yards.
Joe Protheroe, RB, Cal Poly. 23 carries, 116 yards, 1 touchdown.

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Eastern Washington
2. North Dakota
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. Weber State
7. Southern Utah
8. Northern Colorado
9. Portland State
10. Idaho State
11. UC-Davis
12. Sacramento State
13. Montana State

Looking Ahead to Week 11

Three games have noon kickoffs this week, if you live in the Mountain time zone. Montana will travel to Greeley to take on Northern Colorado. Northern Arizona will make the long trip north to take on North Dakota in what should be the Big Sky game of the week. Cal Poly will head to Utah to take on Weber State. Southern Utah will cruise up the interstate to take on BYU in Provo. Idaho State will head to Cheney to take on Eastern Washington. To cap the week Portland State will bus down to Sacramento to take on the Hornets.

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

– In my eyes the MVP race is down to two candidates, Gage Gabrud and Cooper Kupp. I have no idea who would win between those two, but I feel like Kupp might have the edge in that race.

– North Dakota and Northern Arizona could be a lot of fun next weekend. Northern Arizona is streaking, and North Dakota just wants a shot at the Big Sky auto-bid.

– At this point it’s probably safe to say that Montana, Weber State, and Cal Poly are probably out of the running for the Big Sky title. #analysis

– This is a historically bad Montana State team we’re seeing. They just aren’t doing anything right. Chris Murray has had some bright spots, but he’s got some learnin’ to do.

– Montana should get that defense thing ironed out, the last three weeks have been pretty bad. They went from being one of the top defenses in FCS to … well, not that caliber anymore.

– Then again, this is the Big Sky conference. Pretty much every team needs to fix their defense. Perhaps it would be appropriate if the pie in the sky dream of reviving the WAC would include mostly Big Sky teams. It’d return the WAC to its roots.

– North Dakota fans.. don’t worry, I hate your team equally as much as the rest.

– Except Montana. [heart emoji]

BIG SOUTH: Week 10 Review

If you’re looking for analysis of the Big South title race and autobid contention, just jump straight to the bottom.  The rest of us will join you there shortly.

(4-6) Gardner-Webb 17,    (5-3)   #9  Charleston Southern 10               

Finally, Gardner-Webb!  After nearly a full season of being just a play or three away from getting a breakthrough “vindication” win, the Runnin’ Bulldogs came from behind to upset a top-10 opponent and they did it on the road.

QB Tyrell Maxwell was absolutely stellar for G-W (195 yards passing and 165 yards rushing) on a day when they didn’t have many other options.  It was clear from the start that last week’s game at Liberty had taken a physical toll on the Gardner-Webb backfield.  The primary complement to Maxwell, RB Khalil Lewis, did not play this week after leaving the LU game late with flu-like symptoms.  Also, RB Jonathon Blackmon, an explosive and steadily-contributing athlete for G-W who had to be helped off the field during overtime last week, only got in this game for a few plays.  That left the weight of the Gardner-Webb ground attack – which is what their offense is best at – resting on the shoulder pads of Maxwell and role player Jayln Cagle.  For the first half, it wasn’t enough but for the whole game, it was plenty.

CSU started the game off with their boot on the accelerator.  Getting the ball first, the Buccaneers and QB Shane Bucenell – returning from an injury last week against Bucknell – marched right down the field in five plays.  Bucenell hit two long passes on the drive, the second being a 25-yard score to WR Colton Korn that put CSU up 7-0.  It was just two and a half minutes into the game and, already, it looked like CSU could be on their way to another blowout win over Gardner-Webb.  The Bucs’ defense held Maxwell and Company and got the ball back three minutes later, ready to go blow through the Bulldogs once again.

But, then, nothing.  I mean, nothing.  Perhaps the G-W defense was three minutes late getting warmed up but, once they were hot, they were on fire.  Since the Florida State game, CSU had been averaging just north of 45 points a game but, after the first drive against G-Webb, never got in the end zone again.  For their part, however, the CSU defense was just as stout in the first half.  After a CSU punt, Maxwell orchestrated a drive that got as far as the Bucs’ 31 but he was intercepted by CSU’s Cameron Jackson on a deep route over the middle.

With their respective defenses both in full effect, the two teams traded punts for the majority of the rest of the first half.  CSU momentarily broke the monotony late in the second quarter.  Bucenell hit WR Kam Brown deep over the middle to get his team into scoring territory but Bucenell took a sack at the G-W 15-yard line and the Bucs were forced to attempt a mid-range field goal.  The kick sailed wide, however, and the missed opportunity would haunt CSU later.

At the halftime whistle, the score remained the same as it had for the last twenty-six minutes and change, a 7-0 CSU lead.  Neither team had managed any sort of consistency on offense.  CSU also led in offensive yardage, 170-114, but with 70 of it coming on their first and only touchdown drive.

Coming out of the break, it was more of the same.  Gardner-Webb actually went backward on their first drive that was punctuated by a terrible punt and left CSU set up in prime real estate on the Bulldogs’ side of the 50.  However, CSU only managed to move the ball eight yards and were forced to punt from the G-W 33.  Here, then, Maxwell and Gardner-Webb finally made the most of an opportunity.  Facing 3rd-and-7 deep in his own end, Maxwell wove through traffic for a 27-yard gain that pushed the ball out to midfield.  Three plays later, G-W called virtually the same play.  This time, Maxwell – who weighs in at 6’2” 220 – shoved away one tackler and simply ran through two attempted shoulder tackles going around the right side.  CSU’s Solomon Brown ran Maxwell down at the 20-yard line but over-pursued and Maxwell cut back, running nearly parallel across the field before finally crossing the goal line at the near-side numbers.   Just like that, G-W had tied the game up at 7-all with a 90-yard drive coming mostly on the heels of Tyrell Maxwell.

CSU did not respond.  The Bucs were held to three-and-out with Bucenell being momentarily forced from the game after taking a hard second-down sack.  Their defense, however, bailed them out.  After punting the ball away to Gardner-Webb, the Bulldogs were driving once again when Blackmon failed to field an option pitch cleanly.  CSU fell on it and were in business exactly on the midfield stripe.  The ball never left the ground on this drive as Bucenell handed off to running backs five times on the drive. However, facing 4th-and-1 on the G-W 16, the Bucs were called for false start and were forced to send out the field goal unit.  This kick was true and CSU took a 10-7 lead with just over thirteen minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.

That quarter, however, belonged to Gardner-Webb. The two teams traded punts once more before G-W took over.  The Bulldogs commenced to burn five full minutes off the clock and moved the ball to the CSU 22-yard line.  From there, Paul Schumacher drilled a 39-yard field goal to tie the score up once more.  Given the ball with just over three minutes remaining, it seemed the stage was set for CSU to engineer a drive that would produce the winning points and, simultaneously, erase the clock and Gardner-Webb’s chances.  Did not happen.

CSU’s offense sputtered again, the Bucs punted and, with 1:42 left, G-W got the ball back deep in their own end of the field.  However, just as he was a week ago against Liberty, Maxwell was up for the challenge.  After a couple of short completions earned a crucial first down, Maxwell found his favorite receiver, TE Mike Estes, in a coverage gap behind the CSU linebackers.  The pass moved the ball out to midfield with :47 remaining.  On the next play, CSU dropped nine players in deep coverage and only rushed two.  Maxwell easily escaped the rush and, with the CSU defenders all watching G-W receivers, he practically strolled for a 15-yard gain inside the Bucs’ 30.   The next play was a designed QB draw up the middle for Maxwell.  The CSU defense was watching him like a hawk this time and collapsed to the middle to stop him.  However, when Maxwell cut the run back outside it meant that no one was there to stop him.  He was officially ruled out at the 1-yard line but that proved a formality.  With :27 remaining, Maxwell hit Estes in the flat for a 1-yard TD pass that proved the final margin, 17-10.

CSU, however, would not go quietly.  Robert Mitchell replaced Bucenell at QB and promptly hit a CSU receiver deep for a 55-yard gain that set the Bucs up at the G-W 15-yard line.  That, however, was where the drive would end.  Two plays later, Mitchell would throw inside while his intended receiver went outside and G-W’s Jaylan Foster picked off the pass to end the game.

What does this win mean for Gardner-Webb? – It’s vindication of a sort.  Gardner-Webb is a good team and better than their record reflects.  The Western Carolina game notwithstanding – and that loss looks worse and more inexplicable with each passing week – the Bulldogs have been in every game they’ve played.  The fact that their highlight win comes this late in the year after their fate has already been effectively decided is a shame but it’s also a statement on the resolve of this Gardner-Webb team.

What does this loss mean for Charleston Southern? – There’s no sugar-coating this, it’s a really really bad loss.  Not a bad loss in the sense that the Bucs lost to a bad team – they didn’t, see above – but the circumstances of this loss put CSU’s all-but-assumed postseason hopes in total jeopardy.   I’ll get into that more at the bottom but, as to the game itself, CSU was physically and energetically overmatched in this game, particularly toward the end.  That doesn’t bode well going forward.

 

(7-2) Coastal Carolina 38, (4-6) Monmouth 17   

I have no idea what to make of this Monmouth team anymore or of Coastal.  Thanks to a brutal travel schedule, Monmouth is running on fumes at this point and, thanks to a truly lengthy list of injuries, Coastal is playing games with scout team players at this point.  The results are both expected and mystifying.

Monmouth started the game with Kenji Bahar under center for the second straight game and promptly fed the Coastal defense a steady diet of Reggie White, Jr..  White caught 53 yards worth of passes on a 69-yard drive that opened the scoring 7-0 in favor of the visitors just two minutes into the game.

It would get worse before it got better for Coastal.  CCU would cough up the ball on their third play of the game and Monmouth would turn that into a Matt White 45-yard field goal two minutes later.  Coastal would eventually put together a scoring drive on their next possession, moving 55 yards on 13 plays to get a 22-yard Ryan Granger field goal that cut the Monmouth lead to 10-3.  That drive, however, would prove costly as Coastal lost Chase Tidwell, their starting right tackle, and Tyler Keane, their starting* quarterback on consecutive plays. *(Keane began the season 4th on the CCU depth chart but has been started the last six games due to the mounting injuries.)  Neither player would return.

Monmouth would only move the ball four yards on their next possession but Coastal was in a giving mood and fumbled the ball right back to the Hawks on the very next play.  Eleven plays later, that turnover turned into another Monmouth touchdown pass for Bahar, this one to TE Jake Powell, and the Hawks held a 17-3 lead on Coastal Carolina in the second quarter.

Coastal continued to struggle mightily against the worst defense in the Big South.  After gaining a single yard on their next possession, the CCU punt blooped only ten yards downfield.  The defense held but the next Chant drive was foiled by a botched snap.  In fact, until around the 5:00 mark of the second quarter, it seemed as if Monmouth was content to let Coastal stop themselves and Coastal was more than happy to oblige.  That didn’t sit right with Kenny Daniels, however.  The Chants finally got some forward momentum when the Chants’ running back broke free and rumbled 58 yards to get the ball into the Monmouth red zone.  From there, replacement QB Austin Bradley lunged up the middle for a touchdown to cut the Hawk lead to 17-10.

Coastal’s defense, however, still could not contain Reggie White, Jr..  White picked up another 39 yards through the air as Monmouth ran off the last five minutes of the half and attempted a field goal with a second remaining.  The kick, however, was tipped at the line and the halftime score remained the same.

Coming out of the break, Coastal seemed deadset on re-asserting the natural order.  Another big run by Daniels had Coastal on the Monmouth goal line once again.  However, wildcat QB Ryan Lee fumbled the ball away going into the end zone and Monmouth fell on it to halt the threat.  This, however, was merely a delay of the inevitable.  Monmouth went nowhere with the ball and punted back to midfield.  Two plays later, Coastal ran a halfback pass play from Ky’Jon Tyler to Chris Jones that put the ball right back on Monmouth’s doorstep.  Bradley would hit Bruce Mapp for the tying score moments later.

After holding Monmouth once more, the Chants would get the ball back near midfield and begin a steady, methodical drive.  Just before the 3rd-quarter whistle, Lee would redeem himself with a 17-yard run for score that put Coastal up 24-17 and allowed a small sigh of relief for the teal faithful.

Monmouth never threatened again.  Their last three drives of the game ended in interceptions, the last of which was returned for a Coastal touchdown.  Lee added one more for the Chanticleers to create the final margin.

What does this loss mean for Monmouth? – After getting absolutely battered by Kennesaw a week ago, the Hawks’ first half dominance against former Big South power and FBS-transitional Coastal Carolina was more than a bit unexpected.  However, the loss is their 4th-straight and assures Monmouth of their second consecutive losing season, a fact that seemed really unlikely after beating Fordham less than a month ago.

(7-2) Kennesaw State 56, (5-5) Clark Atlanta 0

KSU got eight touchdowns from seven different players and scored twice in every quarter of the contest.  The Owls rolled up 463 rushing yards on a CAU team that would have been more effective manning the concession stands trying to raise funds to buy out of this game.  Chaston Bennett led the way for KSU with 179 yards on just seven carries but, all told, eleven different KSU players carried the ball for positive yardage.  Defensively, CAU was overmatched from the start.  The Panthers only crossed midfield twice with their best drive ending in a fumble at the KSU 5-yard line.

All in all, it was a good day for Kennesaw State.  I’ll quote my preview of this game from last week:  “Kennesaw will run the ball for touchdowns.  Kennesaw will throw the ball for touchdowns.  Clark Atlanta will do significantly less of both.  Kennesaw’s fans will be happy.  Clark Atlanta’s will be less so.”

That’s exactly what happened.  Rarely have I been so prescient.

What does this win mean for KSU? – Nothing.  Absolutely nothing.

(6-3) Liberty 16, (2-7) Presbyterian 0                      

For whatever reason, Liberty-Presbyterian is habitually a dogfight of a game that defies records and expectations.  This game has an odd distinction in that it was both not nearly as close a contest as the final score would indicate but also exactly as close a game as the final margin says.

For starters, Presbyterian’s offense is as bad as advertised.  The Blue Hose turned the ball over four times, crossed midfield only three times and threatened to score only once.  On the flip side, Liberty did pretty much whatever they wanted on offense as long as that thing they wanted was running the ball.  The LU passing game was a disaster and costly penalties hampered the offensive production all game long.

Presby started off the game by fumbling on the second play.  Liberty’s Alpha Jalloh picked up the loose ball and returned it for a score just 38 seconds into the game, only to have the return yardage wiped out by penalty.  Liberty didn’t do much with the great field position – thanks to another penalty – and punted the ball back.

The two teams traded punts and Liberty found itself starting off at the PC 45-yard line.  The Flames handed the ball to RB Carrington Mosley six straight times and the big running back moved the ball into the red zone.  Three plays later, RB Todd Macon carried the ball around the right side for touchdown to put Liberty ahead.  The extra point sailed wide right, however, and the lead stood at 6-0.

Presbyterian got their first first down of the game on their next possession but promptly coughed up the football at their own 31-yard line.  Liberty QB Buckshot Calvert, not known for his rushing ability, ripped off a 14-yard run to get the ball inside the PC 20 but the play was wiped out by a holding penalty.  Liberty’s next play went for nine yards but was also wiped out by a holding penalty.  Liberty’s next play ended in a fumble back to Presby that gave the Blue Hose 16 yards better field position than they had had.  The Blue Hose would begin their best offensive effort to that point but, ultimately, it wouldn’t matter.  PC pushed as far as the Liberty 22 but QB Ben Cheek was sacked on second down and watched the shotgun snap sail over his head for a 15-yard loss on third down.

After Liberty did nothing with the ball, PC got its best scoring opportunity of the day.  Cheek caught Liberty looking at a fake WR screen and hit WR DaShawn Davis over the top for a 48-yard gain that set Presbyterian up at the Liberty 7.  However, the Flames defenders stuffed the next three plays and PC sent the field goal unit on.  The resulting kick, however, was blocked and LU took over at their own 20 where Mosley immediately went to work.  His next carry went straight up the middle and flipped the field, going 60 yards to the Presbyterian 20-yard line.  The Flames’ drive, however, stalled when Calvert’s touchdown pass to WR BJ Farrow was nullified by yet another penalty.  Liberty’s kicker split the uprights for a 22-yard field goal and LU took a 9-0 lead into halftime.

After the break, Liberty’s second drive moved in earnest.  Five straight carries by Mosley and Frankie Hickson carried the Flames 40 yards downfield.  However, Calvert tried to force a pass into the end zone and three Blue Hose batted it around before Kenneth Coleman came down with the interception.

The next several drives for each team were variations on the same theme.  Presbyterian would get the ball, do nothing and punt.  Liberty would get the ball, begin to move the ball and then shoot themselves in the foot with an untimely penalty.  Eventually, however, it was the Liberty defense that would force the issue.  Standing at his own 25, Cheek threw a bullet over the middle that was batted away by Liberty’s Chris Turner.  The deflection fell into the arms of Dexter Robbins and Liberty had the ball at the PC 34. There would be no messing around here.  Mosley instantly broke off a 17-yard gain to get the ball inside the red zone. From there, it was six straight runs by Frankie Hickson with the last being over the top of the line on a 1-yard dive into the end zone that set the final margin.

Presbyterian would mount one final charge, moving as far as the Liberty 39.  However, Liberty’s Erwin Dessources would get to Cheek just as he threw and the fluttering pass would be picked off.

What does this win mean for Liberty? – It was an ugly win but a win nonetheless and the outcome was significant.  This win moves LU to 4-0 in Big South play and, coupled with the CSU loss, guarantees them a share of the conference title.  It also gives them their 6th win against D1 competition and makes them, in theory, eligible for an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs.  The six wins also assures Liberty of their eleventh-straight winning season.

What does this loss mean for Presbyterian? – This is another in a long line of hard-fought but doomed efforts for the Blue Hose.  The PC offense has simply been unable to move the football with any consistency against scholarship competition.

Biggest surprise of the week:  Monmouth absolutely wrecking Coastal in the first half.

Biggest disappointment of the week:  That they couldn’t keep it going.  Call it sour grapes if you want but it would have been absurdly funny to see the worst team in the Big South dominate the program that has abandoned the conference for the greener pastures of the Sun Belt.

Big South Standings:

Liberty                                                                         4-0                      6-3 overall

Charleston Southern                                                2-1                       5-3 overall

Kennesaw State                                                         2-1                       7-2 overall

Gardner-Webb                                                          2-2                       4-6 overall

Presbyterian                                                              1-3                        2-7 overall

Monmouth                                                                0-4                      4-6 overall

 

Implications of the week (playoffs included):

  • Liberty is guaranteed at least a piece of the Big South title. The Flames can win the title outright as well as the FCS autobid with a victory against CSU this week. They can also share the title with either CSU or Kennesaw but not both.  With six D1 wins, Liberty is also eligible for an at-large bid to the playoffs.  The Flames have equal parts no good wins (pending games against CSU and Coastal Carolina) and no bad losses (Virginia Tech, SMU and Jacksonville St).
  • Charleston Southern can win a share of the title and the autobid by winning at Liberty this week and then defeating Kennesaw State at home the week after. Charleston Southern CANNOT win an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs.  Thanks to their bizarre schedule, the Bucs only have four D1 wins in hand and must win their last two just to be playoff-eligible.  Two more wins, of course, would also win them the autobid.
  • CSU losing to Gardner-Webb actually hurt Kennesaw most of all as it eliminated the possibility of a three-way tie for the league title and any long-shot hopes of KSU winning whatever arcane tiebreaker the Big South might use this time around. KSU cannot win the autobid but can win a share of the Big South title if CSU beats Liberty this week and then the Owls beat the Bucs the week after.  This would create a two-way tie at the top of the standings between Liberty and KSU with Liberty holding the head-to-head tiebreaker for the autobid.  Even at 7-2, Kennesaw must win out just to be eligible for at-large consideration.  The Owls currently have only four D1 wins but can get to six by beating Presbyterian this week and CSU the week after.  Still, despite potentially being 9-2, KSU’s playoff resume would be paper-thin.  Their best win by far would be against a CSU team that would have then lost at least two of their last three games. Having a home loss to (currently) 3-6 ETSU on their record surely won’t help KSU either.
  • Gardner-Webb was mathematically eliminated from title and playoff contention a week ago. That makes their win over CSU while having nothing on the line that much more significant.
  • Presbyterian is gamely playing out the hand they were dealt. Unfortunately, that hand is just a bunch of red cards.
  • Monmouth needs a break.  And a hug.

AGS GOTW: Week 10 | James Madison at Richmond

The Game of the Week for November 5th was essentially an unofficial CAA Championship game between two Top 10 teams. It did not disappoint anyone (besides Richmond fans) who were looking for a tight battle.

It was a back and forth game, as demonstrated by the fact that there were 3 ties and a whopping 10 lead changes. Up until 1 minute left in the game the largest lead of the game was 7 points for Richmond and 6 points for James Madison.

The Dukes closed out the win in the last 6 minutes and 43 seconds of the 4th quarter. Richmond had just scored a touchdown to pull ahead 37-33 when Bryan Schor led James Madison on a 12 play, 71 yard touchdown drive that was capped off with a throw to Jonathan Kloosterman with 1:36 left in the game. After the extra point JMU held a 40-37 lead. The game was finished off by the Dukes defense which forced Richmond QB Kyle Lauletta to throw 4 straight incomplete passes from his own 8, resulting in a turnover on downs. The JMU offense would run the ball twice before finding the endzone to give them a 47-37 lead. Richmond would cover 83 yards in 6 plays and score a touchdown as the clock expired to end the game at 47-43.

Schor had an amazing day for the Dukes. He completed 22 of the 28 passes he attempted for a total of 285 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Add in the 91 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground and those are conference player of the week stats.  On the ground he was joined by RB Khalid Abdullah who had 20 carries for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. Through the air Schor’s number one target was junior wide receiver Terrence Alls who was targeted 6 times for 98 yards.

For the Spiders, Lauletta threw the ball all over the field generating 435 yards of offense through the air on a 28 of 43 performance with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Deontez Thompson, a freshman running back, had a standout game for Richmond on the big stage. He had 13 touches for 128 yards on the ground and 3 catches for another 18 yards. Lauletta spread the ball around to 10 different players through the air, the biggest days went to wide receivers Brian Brown and Jamal Bevels. Brown had 5 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown and Bevels had 7 catches for 92 yards.

Moving Forward:

James Madison has another huge road game as they head to Villanova to take on the Wildcats. The Dukes are in the running for a top two seed for the FCS playoffs and need to keep winning. A win over Villanova should leave them undefeated in FCS competition with their last game at home against a down Elon squad.

Richmond can’t hang their heads for too long. The Spiders still have a great shot at 9-2 and a first round bye. They host Delaware this weekend and then head to William and Mary to finish the season against an in-state rival. Both of these games are very winable if the Spiders can stay focused and healthy.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 10 Results

The week 10 AGS Top 25 saw quite the shakeup, especially near the top, as several teams picked up impressive wins over ranked opponents. Despite the fact that each of the top 6 teams from last week won their placement amongst each other was shuffled considerably. Eastern Washington stayed at #1 but that was it for continuity from last week as North Dakota State and Jacksonville State switched spots to come in at #2 and #3, respectively, and James Madison and The Citadel came in tied at #4, representing a 2 spot rise for JMU and a 1 spot rise for The Citadel. Despite winning yet again to get to 9-0 Sam Houston State fell out of the top 5 dropping 2 spots to #6.

After the top 5 there were some teams taking advantage of losses from others within the top 15 to make some sizable jumps. Central Arkansas, South Dakota State, North Dakota, Villanova, and Samford (despite their OT loss to The Citadel) all moved up multiple spots within the top 15. Wofford clawed back into the top 25 coming in at #22, a 5 spot rise from last week. Liberty also rose 5 spots to make their 2016 debut in the AGS Top 25 coming in at #25.

Charleston Southern had the biggest fall of the week as they dropped 9 spots to #18 following their head scratching loss to Gardner-Webb. Western Illinois also fell 5 spots to #21 after dropping their game to red hot Illinois State. Maine and Stony Brook fell out of the top 25 after sustaining losses over the weekend.

The Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, and SOCON all put 4 teams into the top 25 to lead the way. The Big South and the Southland followed with 2 teams each.

Full results below:

Rank Team: Total Points First Place Votes Previous Wk.
1 Eastern Washington Eagles 1997 46 1
2 North Dakota State Bison 1936 16 3
3 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1855 11 2
4T James Madison Dukes 1750 4 6
4T The Citadel Bulldogs 1750 1 5
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1735 4 4
7 Chattanooga Mocs 1500 8
8 Richmond Spiders 1396 7
9 Central Arkansas Bears 1392 11
10 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1280 12
11 North Dakota Fighting Hawks 1222 13
12 Villanova Wildcats 1182 15
13 Cal Poly Mustangs 1002 10
14 Samford Bulldogs 794 17
15 Youngstown State Penguins 768 14
16 Montana Grizzlies 757 19
17 North Carolina A&T Aggies 698 18
18 Lehigh Mountain Hawks 692 20
19 Charleston Southern Buccaneers 608 9
20 New Hampshire Wildcats 564 21
21 Western Illinois Leathernecks 542 16
22 Wofford Terriers 274 27
23 Harvard Crimson 246 23
24 Grambling State Tigers 243 24
25 Liberty Flames 148 30
ORV:
26 Maine Black Bears 65 22
27 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 55 36T
28 Illinois State Redbirds 46 NR
29 North Carolina Central Eagles 44 31
30 Northern Iowa Panthers 33 33
31 Saint Francis Red Flash 22 34
32 Stony Brook Seawolves 11 25
33 San Diego Toreros 10 35
34 Tennessee State Tigers 9 39T
35 Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 7 NR
36 Albany Great Danes 4 28
37T Southern Utah Thunderbirds 3 39T
37T Weber State Wildcats 3 29
39T Nicholls State Colonels 2 NR
39T Princeton Tigers 2 NR
Fell Out Of Poll:
Eastern Illinois Panthers
Pennsylvania Quakers
Sacred Heart Pioneers
South Dakota Coyotes

Most Significant Win: James Madison Dukes
Most Significant Loss: Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Patriot League: Week 10 Review & Power Rankings

Week 10 in the Patriot League was highlighted by Lehigh’s 20-13 win over Bucknell that punched the Mountain Hawks ticket to the FCS playoffs. After 7 straight double-digit wins, the Mountain Hawks needed contributions from all 3 phases to preserve the victory. Lehigh still needs to beat Lafayette to win the league outright. If they don’t, Fordham can still grab a share of the title by winning their final two games. The Rams are still alive thanks to a thrilling 24-20 win over Colgate. The win also kept Fordham in play for an at large bid into the playoffs. The other game of the weekend saw Holy Cross get a much needed win over struggling Georgetown. Senior WR Brandan Flaherty had a monster game in the Crusader win.

Fordham 24 Colgate 20

Fordham (6-3, 3-1) needed a spectacular late touchdown catch from WR Rob Cantelli to defeat Colgate (3-5, 2-2) 24-20 on a perfect November afternoon in the Bronx for football. The narrow win keeps the Ram’s playoff hopes alive for another week. Preseason Patriot League favorite Colgate will need to win their final two games just to finish .500 (10 game schedule). The Raiders run defense rose to the occasion (limited Edmonds to 73 yards on 21 carries) but their offense bogged down after their opening possession of the second half. QB Jake Melville struggles in the passing game (10-22 106 yards) continued in the loss. Meanwhile, Ram signal caller Kevin Anderson’s 3 TD passes led the offense on a day when Edmonds was held well below his per game average.

Fordham received the opening kickoff and started the game with a healthy dose of running to start the game. It was clear rookie head coach Andrew Breiner made it a point to test Colgate’s 4th ranked rush “D” by turning to the ground game on 7 of the first 9 plays of the game. The Rams eventually made it to Colgate’s 24 yard line before the drive ultimately stalled. On the 14th play, Makay Redd converted a 41 yard FG to give Fordham an early 3-0 lead with 9:51 left in the 1st quarter. Colgate would answer Fordham’s opening FG with a lengthy TD drive. Kenyon Washington’s 16 yard TD run finished off a 10 play 73 yard drive that took 4:30 off the clock.

Both teams would trade punts on their next possessions. On the final play of the 1st quarter Fordham’s Corey Caddle ripped off a 37 yard punt return that set the Ram offense up at Colgate’s 29 yard line. Colgate’s defense held until Coach Breiner elected to go for it on a 4th and 11 instead of trying another lengthy Redd FG. His gamble paid off as Anderson (27-42 263 yards) found Phazahn Odom crossing the field for a 30 yard TD that gave the Rams a 10-7 lead with 12:56 left in the 2nd quarter. The Ram (8 yards) and Raiders (9 yards) offenses would fail to mount any threat on their next two possessions. Colgate finally got things going with a little over 4 minutes left in the first half by turning to the ground game (7 rushes) again. Ultimately, Kenyon Washington’s (24 carries 123 yards 2 TDs) 42 yard TD run capped the 10 play 80 yard drive that gave Colgate a 14-10 lead with just under a minute left before half time.

The Raiders got the ball to start the second half and immediately pounded the rock. After two Washington runs that covered 17 yards Jake Melville (12 carries 124 yards) busted loose for a 63 yard TD that extended the Colgate lead to 20-10 (missed XP) with 13:42 left in the 3rd quarter. After four straight punts between the two teams, Fordham finally got their offense going on their third possession of the second half. Anderson would go 6 for 7 during a 12 play 77 yard TD drive the closed the Ram deficit to 3 points. Anderson’s sixth completion was a 14 yard TD strike to Robbi Contelli (5 rec 58 yards 2 TDs).

After a combination of a Fordham fumble and a Colgate failed 4th down attempt and traded punts the Rams would get the ball with 7:29 left in the 4th quarter still down 3 points. With Edmonds held in check by Colgate D, Anderson, with help from Robbi Contelli, once again picked up the slack. Kevin Anderson went 5-6 for 46 yards on the go ahead TD drive. The final 20 yard completion happened because Contelli made a ridiculous circus catch in the end zone with 4:55 left in the game. Colgate would mount one more charge but on 4th and 11 from the Ram 31 yard line Melville’s pass attempt fell harmlessly to ground with a little over a minute left effectively ending the game.

Up Next: Fordham takes the 6.6 mile trip to Yankee Stadium to play Holy Cross in a historic game for both teams. Ironically, the Rams will the road team. Colgate returns to the friendly confines of Andy Kerr Stadium to play Lafayette. The long term forecast suggests there might be some snow around.

Holy Cross 21 Georgetown 20

After two straight blowout losses, Holy Cross (4-6, 2-3) finally got back into the win column by “eeking” out a 1 point win over Georgetown (3-7, 0-4 in Washington D.C. Talented Sophomore QB Geoff Wade’s return gave the Crusader passing attack a much needed spark. Wade’s presence also coincided with Brandan Flaherty’s best game of the year (9 rec 196 yards). Flaherty’s 196 yards is the 5th highest single game receiving total in Crusader history. The explosive Flaherty’s season has been plagued by an early season injury and a revolving door at QB since Peter Pujals got hurt against Albany.

Georgetown had a great opportunity to end their six game losing streak but the offense once again was unable to come up with a big 4th quarter play. The Hoyas simply lack a consistent threat they can turn to in a crucial situation. The Hoyas can’t run the ball (65 yards total) and QB Clay Norris continues to throw costly interception. If Georgetown can find some play makers on offense for next year they have a defense in place to win games in the Patriot League moving forward.

Following a 3 and out by the Georgetown offense it looked like their defense would also be in for a long day. On first and 10 from their own 24 Wade (17-28 308 yards 1 TD 1 INT) found Flaherty for a 46 yard completion that quickly got the Crusaders into Hoya territory. Seven plays later, Domenic Cozier (6 carries 24 yards 2 TDs) snuck into the end zone from 2 yards out to give Holy Cross a 7-0 lead with 9:07 left in the 1st quarter. The lead would not last long! Georgetown’s Michael Dereus fielded the ensuing kickoff in his own end zone and took it 100+ yards to the house to tie the game at 7. Georgetown’s special teams have been excellent all season. They’re the main reason the Hoyas nearly upset Fordham two weeks ago.

After both teams traded punts, Wade and Flaherty connected for another huge play on first down. This time it was an 80 yard completion that setup the Crusaders at the Hoya 4. Wade’s fumble on 2nd down nearly ended the threat but he was able to pounce back on the ball. On the next play he made amends for the mistake by hitting Martin Dorsey for a 6 yard TD that gave Holy Cross a 14-7 lead with 3:32 left in the first quarter. Georgetown responded with a 46 yard Henry Darmstadter FG to cut the Holy Cross lead to 4 points early in the 2nd quarter. Holy Cross would match the Hoya FG with their third TD of game with 8:44 left in the first half. Cozier found pay dirt from 5 yards out to cap a brisk 5 play 79 yard drive that took less than 2 minutes off the clock. Down 21-10, Georgetown put together their best series of the game. Clay Norris rushed (14 carries 54 yards) the ball 5 times and completed 3 passes (25-37 185 yards 2 INTs) during a 13 play 72 yard TD drive that lasted nearly 6 minutes. Alex Valles (12 carries 29 yards 1 TD) finished it off with a 4 yard run into the end zone. A Holy Cross turnover and Hoya punt would close out the first half.

The second half would be dominated by both defenses except for Georgetown’s first possession of the second half. The Hoya offense would make it to the Crusader 31 yard line before fizzling out. Instead of going for a 4th and 7, Coach Sgarlata sent Darmstadter out for another long FG. His confidence in his kicker paid off as Darmstadter successfully booted a 49 yarder to make the score 21-20 with 7:25 left in the 3rd quarter. Midway through the 4th quarter Holy Cross would get to the Hoya 25 yard line after a long Wieczorek punt return but a missed FG kept the score 21-20 with 6:08 left in the game. Georgetown would have two more opportunities on offense to take the lead but both possessions ended in interceptions.

Up Next: Holy Cross heads to the Big Apple to take on Fordham at Yankee Stadium in a game that’s being billed as the “Ram-Crusader Cup”. Despite “The House that Steinbrenner Built” being 165 miles from Fitton Field, the Crusaders will be the home team. Georgetown takes the 3 hour bus ride up to Central Pennsylvania to take on Bucknell.

#20 Lehigh 20 Bucknell 13

The Lehigh (8-2, 5-0) offense produced all the headlines during the Mountain Hawks 7 game winning streak yet it was their defense that made the difference in their title clinching win over Bucknell (3-6, 2-2). The once maligned Brown and White defense came up with two huge second half interceptions and a 4th down sack late in the game to preserve the victory. The win secures Lehigh’s first playoff appearance since 2011. That year the Mountain Hawks received a bye before taking down CAA champion Towson 40-38. Lehigh then advanced to the quarterfinals where they ultimately fell to eventual national champion North Dakota State. Lehigh still needs to beat rival Lafayette in two weeks to win the outright Patriot League title.

Bucknell also entered the game with a shot the Patriot League title and the Bison, especially their defense, played like it. It didn’t take long for the Orange and Blue “D” to make their first statement of the game. Lehigh received the opening kickoff and put together a promising drive before the Bucknell defense made a huge stop on 4th and 6 at their own 36 yard line. The Bison offense capitalized on the momentum. Joey DeFloria (28 carries 120 yards 1 TD) rushed 7 times for 35 yards as Bucknell marched 10 plays in 6 yards to take an early 7- 0 lead. Defloria’s 7 yard TD run capped the impressive drive for Bison. Lehigh would get back to work once they got they touched the ball for a second time. Nick Shafnisky (18-37 264 yards 1 TD) hit Trevor Socarras for 31 yards on 3rd and 11 to extend the drive. A few plays later Shafnisky bullied his way into the end zone from 1 yard out to tie the game at 7 with 1:56 left in the 1st quarter.

The Bison offense would get things rolling again on their next possession before Lehigh’s defense stiffened inside the 10. Bucknell would have to settle for a 26 yard FG which John Burdick missed wide right. Following a Lehigh punt, the Bison offense put together their 3rd straight impressive drive of the game by using a nice balance of run and pass. Bruising freshman RB Chad Freshnock finished it off with an 11 yard TD run to give Bucknell a 13-7 lead (missed XP) with 8:30 left in the first half. The Bucknell defense would limit Lehigh to 6 yards on their final 3 possessions of the half to maintain a 13-7 lead as the two teams headed to the locker room.

After the Lehigh defense forced a Bison 3 and out to start the second half the Mountain Hawks finally got things going again on “O”. Lehigh managed to reach the Bucknell 12 yard line before Abdullah Anderson (2.0 sacks on the day) sacked Nick Shafnisky for an 8 yard loss on 3rd down to force a FG. Lehigh kicker Ed Mish came through on the 37 yard FG attempt to cut the Bison lead to 13-10 with 9:03 left in the 3rd quarter. Following another Bison punt, Shafnisky and Co. got things rolling again. This time the senior QB found Gatlin Casey (7 rec 71 yards 1 TD) for a 9 yard TD with 1:46 left in the 3rd quarter to give Lehigh their first lead (17-13) of the game. The Lehigh defense would come up with a huge play on Bucknell’s ensuing possession. Mountain Hawk LB Pierce Rippanti tipped R.J. Nitti’s 1st down pass in the air and was able to catch it for a huge interception deep in Bison territory. Lehigh would get to the Bucknell 3 yard line before having to settle for an Ed Mish 20 yard chip shot FG with 21 seconds left in the 3rd quarter.

Following the Lehigh FG, Bucknell would go on an epic 17 play drive that took over 9 minutes off the clock. Unfortunately for the Bison, it would not result in any points. Lehigh’s Donovan Harris pulled a Malcom Butler and beat the Bucknell WR to spot for a huge drive ending interception at the goal line. It looked like Lehigh would put the final nail in the Bison coffin when Shafnisky hit a streaking Troy Pelletier (8 rec 110 yards) for 39 yards to get the down to the Bucknell 34 yard line. However, on the very next play Shafnisky and Dominic Bragalone’s fumbled handoff ended up in the hands of Bucknell’s Troy Glenn to give the Bison one last chance with 3:36 left in the game. After a couple of Bison first downs the Lehigh defense stepped up. On 4th and 13 Lehigh’s Pierce Rippanti stormed off the edge and sacked Nitti (17-26 228 yards 2 INTs) to end Bucknell’s dream of the upset.

Up Next: Lehigh gets to celebrate their trip to the FCS playoffs for an extra week as the Mountain Hawks have a week 11 by before venturing to Easton to face rival Lafayette for the 152nd time. Bucknell returns home to face stumbling Georgetown.

Power Rankings

  1. Lehigh
  2. Fordham
  3. Colgate
  4. Bucknell
  5. Holy Cross
  6. Lafayette
  7. Georgetown

SOCON: Week 10 Review and Power Rankings

It was an exciting time in the Southern Conference this week with The Citadel sewing up the conference auto bid to the FCS playoffs, Wofford staying on track for a chance at an at large playoff berth, Western Carolina gaining its first conference victory of the year, and Mercer winning to try and find a long shot playoff berth.

#5 The Citadel 37  #17 Samford 34 OT (box score)

The magic continues.

That about sums up The Citadel’s season so far.  Well, maybe “defenses win championships” could be said as well.

This game had a lot riding on the outcome.  The Samford Bulldogs needed to win in order to keep their Southern Conference championship hopes alive.  The Citadel Bulldogs needed the win in order to gain the SOCON autobid and at least a share of the championship.

It was a loud and excited Homecoming crowd in Johnson Hagood Stadium on Saturday.  It was pretty much a sellout of the available seats.  A good chunk of the stadium’s visitors side is still off limits.  15,015 came out to see two great teams battle it out.

The biggest question for the Charleston Bulldog fans was whether or not the Cadets would be able to stop the prolific gains that Samford’s Devlin Hodges has managed all year.  On Samford’s first drive it looked like he was in the groove.  But after two first downs, The Citadel held and Samford punted away.  The Citadel then went on one of its classic drives.  They marched 87 yards in 16 plays and chewed up 7:46 of clock time to take the early lead, 7-0.

It didn’t take Samford long to respond.  They ran one of their classic drives and scored on a 9 play, 75 yard drive that only took 2:30.  Actually that was a little long for Samford.  Coming into this game, they have had 25 scoring drives of under two minutes.

On The Citadel’s next drive, they went 47 yards only to give it up on downs when they didn’t make a 4th and 2 on the Samford 28.  The teams then traded three and outs and Samford did something they normally don’t do.  After a short pass, Hodges’ legs took one 57 yards for a score and Samford was up 14-7.  Most of the day The Citadel’s defense did a good job covering Samford exceptional receivers.  Occasionally they did it at the expense of covering Hodges running.

But The Citadel would answer fairly quickly themselves.  They went on a 4 play 83 yard drive.  It included a 24 yard pass completion to Cam Jackson followed up with a 55 yard TD scamper by none other than Tyler Renew.

After a good kickoff return, Samford drove 24 yards only to be stopped at The Citadel 34.  Not wanting to pass up a scoring opportunity Samford elected to attempt a 51 yard field goal.  They got it to go up 17-14 with about 5 minutes to go in the half.

After a holding penalty put The Citadel in the hole on their next drive, they were again forced to punt. Samford made another quick drive only to be stopped again at The Citadel 27.  Another field goal made it 20-14 with 46 seconds to go in the first half.  The Citadel still threatened and made it all the way to the Samford 39, but they ran out of time and Samford took their 6 point lead into half.

The Citadel took the second half kickoff and made good progress initially.  But Dominique Allen made a bad pitch to Reggie Williams and even though Williams fell on it, their first drive was over.  Allen made two bad pitches in the game, but each time the ball bounced The Citadel’s way.

The Citadel held Samford after a couple first downs on their next drive and got the ball back at their 22 yard line.  5 plays and 78 yards later The Citadel went up 21-20.  Tyler Renew scored the TD with another long run, this time for 58 yards.

When The Citadel forced Samford to punt again on their next possession, it appeared that the momentum was definitely swinging toward the Cadets.  Tyler Renew was the “go to” running back on the Cadet’s next drive and he ground out the yards.  He had a big day and was called on 45 times to run the ball.  The drive ended when he fumbled.  He jumped on it though and The Citadel had to settle for a 48 yard field goal to make it 24-20 with about 13 minutes to go in the game.

Samford took their next drive the distance although pressure on Hodges was increasing.  They went on a 10 play 75 yard drive to make it 27-24.  They scored on an 18 yard pass from Hodges to E. Obajimi. They also benefited from a pass interference call on the drive.

The Citadel made a little headway on their next drive, but faced a 4th and 1 from their own 43 with just 7:43 to go in the game.  Samford stuffed Renew’s attempt at the first down and they took over on downs.  At this point, the momentum was definitely swinging back to Samford.  So much so, it took only 5 pass completions for Samford to score again.  Their drive took 1:11.  With the score now 34-24 and only 6:09 to go, it looked bleak for the Charleston Bulldogs.

The Citadel has faced being down late in games many times this year, and it showed.  They remained poised and went to work.  Quickly faced with a 3rd and 7 on their 31 yard line, the next play for The Citadel would change the entire game.  Cam Jackson took one around the outside on the left and he bobbed, weaved, back tracked, and spun his way for a 63 yard run to the Samford 6.  The Citadel scored a couple plays later to make it 34-31, but the entire team was fired up as a result.  The drive took just 1:45 off the clock.

With only 4:24 to go, The Citadel’s defense would need to stop Hodges.  It did.  The Citadel’s defense registered two tackles for loss and Hodges threw an incompletion on 3rd down.  After Samford punted, the Citadel got the ball back at their 42 with 2:54 to go.  They made a methodical drive of 12 plays to get to the Samford 17 with 3 seconds remaining.   A quick field goal by Cody Clark tied it up and the game went to OT.

At this point the stadium was going wild.  The Citadel went on offense first and Samford’s defense was not going to make it easy.  The Citadel only got to the 20 and was forced to kick a field goal, which they made.  Samford then started their OT possession.  Hodges connected on a short pass and then threw an incompletion.  At this point the crowd made their presence felt and Samford suffered a false start penalty.  After another incompletion Samford attempted a field goal on a 4th and 12 from the 27.  The 44 yard kick was clean, had the distance, and then plowed smack into the right upright and bounced back.  Game over.

For The Citadel fans, this victory is just more proof that their Bulldogs must have a destiny this year.  Now at 9-0, this is hands down the greatest season in The Citadel’s history.  This victory, over a top 25 team, was one the best ever as well.

Tyler Renew had a big day.  It was almost a record breaker.  He carried the ball 45 times for 285 yards and three TDs.  The Citadel’s record is 286 yards rushing in a game.  Even so, I am sure he is satisfied with the victory and the best day of his career.  Cam Jackson also finished with 100 yards on the ground and 58 receiving.  Overall, The Citadel ran for 463 yards and passed for 79.

Samford’s Devlin Hodges also had a big day. He went 35/46 for 280 with 2 TDs and no interceptions. Now that is well below his 364 yard average coming into this game, but he did have a good day running gaining 94 yards.  Those yards came on both scrambles and designed runs.  The Citadel held the other Samford runners to -1 yards rushing.  The Citadel’s defense did sack him 3 times though.  Hodges hit Kelvin McKnight 9 times for 118 yards and Kerel Hamilton 13 times for 85 yards and E Obajimi 8 times for 54 yards.

Samford had 4 players record double digit tackles led by Ahmad Gooden with 15.  The Citadel’s Tevin Floyd led the cadets with 12 tackles including 2 for losses.  Kailik Williams had 10 tackles.

It was a pretty clean game with just 4 penalties for Samford and 3 for The Citadel.  There were no turnovers in the game, which is just what you would expect from two top 25 teams.  The Citadel did put it on the ground three times, but recovered all three.  One of the key stats has to be the time of possession.  The Citadel again dominated it with a 38:17 possession time compared to Samford’s 21:43.  Hodges can’t score if he is sitting on the bench.

With the win, The Citadel clinches at least a share of the Southern Conference title even with a loss at VMI next week.  They will obviously win it outright with a victory next week. They did clinch the automatic bid for the FCS playoff by virtue of their head to head victory over Chattanooga earlier in the season.

Samford is still in good shape for the playoffs. Now with three losses, if they win out to be 8-3, their losses will be to top ten FCS teams Chattanooga and The Citadel and FBS Miss St.  They also have a good win over a now top ten Central Arkansas.

Next week The Citadel travels to Lexington, Virginia to meet the Keydets of VMI in the 72nd edition of the Military Classic of the South.  Samford returns home to face the Mercer Bears.

Wofford 34 Furman 27 (box score)

The Wofford Terriers needed to win bad in order to keep their playoff hopes alive.  On the road against a revitalized Furman Paladin squad was a tall order.  Wofford had not won at Furman in a while.

After trading three and outs, Furman struck first.  They went on a 6 play, 62 yard drive and scored on a 1 yard run by Antonio Wilcox.  Paladin QB Reese Hannon was in form and went 2/3 through the air including 17 and 45 yard tosses on this drive.  Furman missed the XP to go up 6-0.

The Terrier’s wheels almost came off on Wofford’s next possession.  On their first play they fumbled and the Paladins recovered.  But Wofford’s defense stood up and stuffed them on three plays and Furman was forced to kick a field goal, which the Terriers blocked.

Furman then answered on defense and forced a three and out on the Terriers.  Furman drove well on their next possession and looked to be threatening when the Wofford defense answered with a forced fumble and recovered at their 30.

It didn’t take Wofford long to score. After two short gains, Brandon Goodson, the Wofford QB, torn off a 64 yard TD run to make it 7-6 Wofford.  After holding the Paladins to a three and out, Wofford began to drive again.  The Paladins finally held them at the Furman 37 and Wofford decided to try a 54 yard field goal.  They made it to go up 10-6.

After the stubborn Terrier defense held Furman to another three and out, Wofford drove well, but on a 2nd and 4 in Furman territory, the Paladins forced another fumble and returned it to midfield.

This is just what Furman needed and they scored after a 10 play, 49 yard drive. The TD came on a 10 yard pass from Hannon to Duncan Fletcher.  With Furman now leading 13-10 with 1:25 to go in the half, Wofford answered quickly and scored in four plays.  The drive was highlighted by a 48 rush by Will Gay.  The TD was a 14 yard pass from Goodson to Chandler Gouger.  It was Goodson’s first passing TD of the year.

With little time left in the half, Furman fumbled on their next possession at their own 40.  With only three seconds remaining in the half, most teams would probably just try a long toss into the end zone.  Not Wofford.  They thought they had a shot with their field goal kicker.  After a bunch of timeouts David Marvin attempted the 57 yarder…and he made it to put Wofford up 20-13 going in to the half.  A kicker like that is pretty handy.

After forcing Wofford to punt on their first possession of the third quarter, Furman finally got going.  Hannon went 7/8 passing including a 14 yard TD pass on their first drive of the second half.  The 10 play drive went 93 yards and tied the game up at 20.

After a holding penalty on the ensuing kickoff return put the Terriers on their own 14 to start their next drive, it got even worse for Wofford.  After a three and out, the punt snap went awry and Furman recovered on the Wofford 5.  The Paladins scored on one running play to go up 27-20 with about 4 minutes to go in the third quarter.

Wofford obviously needed to answer before Furman put them in a deeper hole.  Their drive did not start well.  On their first series they found themselves with a 4th and 3 on their own 32.  They went for it.  Goodson got it, and more, with a 9 yard run.  With a new set of downs, it did not get any easier and they faced another 4th and 3 at their own 48.  This time Goodson passed it for 19 yards.  It only took one more play for Wofford to score as Goodson ran it in untouched on a 33 yard sprint to tie it up at 27.

Furman answered with a 65 yard drive to get to the Wofford 9 yard line in 10 plays.  However, on a first and goal Hannon tossed an interception which Wofford returned to their 35 yard line.

After trading three and outs, Wofford began a drive with 4:39 to go in the game.  They made good progress and the drive was highlighted by a 33 yard pass by Goodson to Will Gay to the Furman 7.  Lorenzo Long punched it in the next play and Wofford took the lead, 34-27, with only 49 seconds remaining.

Furman attempted to put something together, but they only made it to midfield when they fumbled with no time remaining.

The yards gained by the two teams were surprisingly even. 372 yards for Wofford and 370 yards for Furman. Wofford totaled 305 on the ground led by Brandon Goodson with 121.  He also got 66 passing yards.  Furman’s Hannon passed for 305 yards going 27/40 with 2 TDs and 1 interception.  Furman also ran for 65.

The difference in TOP was just 4 seconds in favor of Furman.  Turnovers obviously had an impact in the game with each team giving up three fumbles. Furman’s 4th quarter interception in the end zone also sealed their fate.

With the win, Wofford’s playoff hopes remain alive with a 6-3 record.  They face Chattanooga next week in a critical game for them.  Furman, now 2-7, hosts Western Carolina next week.

Western Carolina 32  VMI 29 (box score)

If you were Western Carolina still hunting for your first conference victory of the year, this game began the best way possible.  On the opening kickoff they forced a fumble and got a quick scoop and score for 6.

It didn’t get any better for VMI.  Once they finally got the ball after the next kickoff, Austin Coulling, starting QB in place of an injured AL Cobb, threw an interception on his first pass.  VMI had already entered Catamount territory on three runs for 37 yards when he threw it.

WCU began to drive after the interception with some success, but were stopped at the VMI 44 and had to punt.  After the teams traded three punts, VMI made a drive to the WCU 20 yard line but were forced to try a field goal.  WCU blocked it.  The shakeup following WCU letting go of their defensive coordinator a week ago must have lit a fire under the Catamount defense.

After WCU began their drive after the blocked field goal, Tyrie Adams, the WCU QB, threw a quick interception deep in his own territory.  After another good defensive stop by the Cats, VMI got a mulligan on their  blocked field goal.  This time they make it and WCU now led 7-3.

After a three and out by WCU, VMI suffered another interception thrown by Coulling.  It was deep ball, but WCU returned it 65 yards to the VMI 11.  Three quick rushes by WCU put them up 14-3 with 9:27 to go in the half.

VMI answered though when they went on an 8 play, 67 yard drive and scored on a 8 yard run by Tyain Smith to make it 14-9 WCU.  VMI had the XP blocked.

With only 5:31 to go in the half, the Cats then executed a near perfect drive.  They drove 78 yards on 14, mostly rushing, plays in 5:28 to score again.  They faced only 2 third downs on the drive.  Western took their 21-9 lead into the half.

The second half started much better for the Keydets.  After WCU began to drive, VMI forced a fumble after a long WCU pass into VMI territory and returned it to Western 37 yard line.  VMI scored quickly in 5 plays to cut Westerns lead to 21-15.  VMI inexplicitly had their XP blocked again.  WCU’s special teams were on fire.

On their ensuing possession, WCU drove fairly well, but were stopped at the VMI 34 and the Cats had to try and make a 50 yard field goal.  They got it to make it 24-15.

After the teams traded 4 punts to take them into the fourth quarter, VMI had a good punt return to the WCU 47, Coulling must have settled down a bit because he tossed one for a 46 yards completion.  VMI punched it in on the next play to make it 24-21.  This time, VMI elected to go for two instead an XP.  And they made it on a Coulling to Ryan Swingle pass to cut the difference to 1 at 24-23.

VMI held The Catamounts on their next possession after a couple first downs and got the ball back at their own 8 yard line.  VMI drove the length of the field in 13 plays with Coulling going 5/6 through the air.  Daz Palmer also ran quite a bit including a 2 yard TD run.  This score put VMI up 29-24 and VMI obviously elected to go for two again.  They didn’t make it this time.

With 4:56 to go in the game, Western Carolina needed to make a long drive.  They were quickly faced with a 4 and 1 at their own 30.  They went for it and got stuffed by the Keydets.  Now with victory in their grasp, the Keydets needed to only score a TD to ice it or a field goal to make it tough on Western.  They drove to the WCU 16 and faced a 4th and 7.  They elected to go for a field goal to make it an 8 point game.  Need I say it?  The kicked was blocked by Western for a touchback with 2:22 to go.

Needing to go 80 yards, Tyrie Adams quickly threw a completion for 7 yards, then an incompletion, then a three yard completion.  WCU had a first down, but with no timeouts remaining he needed to throw a long ball.  He made another 10 yard toss.  Then he connected on a 53 yarder for the score.  The drive took 1:34.  Now down 32-29, with only 48 seconds to go, VMI looked for a miracle of their own.  Coulling got them to the WCU 32 aided by a Western personal foul.  Unfortunately for the Keydets, he tossed his third interception of the day and WCU got their conference victory.

Overall the Keydets totaled 453 yards of offense.  In his first career start Coulling went 18/25 for 261 yards with 1 TD and the three interceptions.  Daz Palmer led VMI on the ground with 136 yards.  They had 192 overall on the ground.  The biggest stat was obviously the 4 blocked kicks, 2 XPs and 2 field goals.  VMI had it sewn up had these been made.

Western Carolina’s Adams went 21/31 for 207 yards with one TD and 1 interception.  Detrez Newsome had 111 on the ground.  The Catamounts had 146 total rushing yards.  Again, the victory has to belong to the Catamounts special teams.  The opening kickoff forced fumble and scoop and score, plus the blocked kicks resulted in a huge point swing in their favor.

With the win, Western Carolina moves to 1-6 in the SOCON and 2-7 overall.  They travel to Greenville next week to meet Furman.  VMI hosts The Citadel in the Military Classic of the South with the victor claiming the coveted Silver Shako.

Mercer 21  ETSU 13 (box score)

It should have been an easy victory for the Mercer Bears on their Homecoming.  Mercer has had their share of close games in their three year tenure in the SOCON.  Coming into this game Mercer had played 13 SOCON games that were decided by 1 score or less in three years.  They went 4-9 in those games.  For games decided by more than one score they are 1-5 during that same time.  What does all this mean?  One, they are at least competitive. Two, the range in quality of the teams that they have kept it close with is pretty wide.  They play good teams close and bad teams close.  In other words they certainly play to their competition.  They played The Citadel close for three years in a row.  They beat UTC last year.  They also needed OT to beat VMI this year and beat Tenn Tech and Austin Peay close even though they dominated those games.  They are somewhat of an enigma at times.

This game was no different.  The ETSU Bucs got the ball first and drove to midfield before the Bear’s defense held them and forced a punt.  John Russ, Mercer’s Sr QB, had some problems getting started and Mercer went three and out on their first possession.  The Bucs made a little progress on their next drive, but were stopped on a 4th and 1 try at the Mercer 38.

After taking over on downs, Mercer drove all the way to the ETSU 23 in four plays, but Russ fumbled and it was ETSU ball again.  After trading 3 three and outs, Mercer finally got it in gear.

The Bears went on an 11 play, 47 yard drive to go up 7-0 with 10:23 to go in the second quarter.  Mercer scored on 10 yard pass from Russ to Robert Brown.

After trading punts again, ETSU finally made some headway following a bad punt by Mercer that went out of bounds at the Mercer 44.  The Bucs drove all the way to the 1 before the Bears stopped them.  ETSU tried a 19 yard field goal, but missed it.

After trading 2 more three and outs, Mercer ran a few plays, but ran out of time and went into half with a 7-0 lead.

It started to come apart for Mercer on their first drive of the second half.  After driving to the ETSU 41, John Russ fumble yet again and ETSU recovered at their own 44 yard line. ETSU made a pretty good drive which included a 26 yard completion by Austin Herink on a 3rd and 4 play.  They made it all the way down to the Mercer 16 before the Bears defense stopped them.  ETSU made another field goal try and made it this time to cut Mercer’s lead to 7-3.

After ETSU held the Bears to another three and out, they began their drive at their own 31 yard line.  Herink connected with Drake Powell on the first play for 69 yards pass and a TD to make it 10-7 half way through the third quarter.

The Buc’s defense was having a pretty good day and they held Mercer to another three and out on their next possession.  After Mercer punted, the ETSU offense got their game legs as well and they drove fairly well.  Herink went 6/6 passing on the drive, but Mercer’s defense finally held at their 15 yard line and forced ETSU to kick a field goal to make it 13-7 ETSU. ETSU also fumble on the drive but recovered it.

At this point Mercer knew they were letting it get away from them and answered right back. They started a drive at the end of third quarter that went 9 plays and 73 yards to score on a 33 yard pass from John Russ to Marquise Irvin to make it 14-13.

ETSU began their next drive pretty well but stalled near midfield and were forced to punt. With 11:21 to go in the game Mercer went on a back breaking drive of 14 plays and 85 yards to score again. The drive took 6:21 off the clock.  With only 5 minutes to go, ETSU need a sustained scoring drive to tie it up.  Mercer’s defense stuffed them and even got a sack on third down.  ETSU punted it back at 3:23 and relied on their defense to get it back. They did force a three and out yet again, but Mercer still chewed up a little over a minute.

ETSU got it back with 2:16 to go and actually made good headway. They ended up at the Mercer 32 with 16 seconds remaining when Herink tossed one to the goal line while under extreme pressure.  A Mercer defender hit it up in the air to make it a jump ball and luckily for Mercer, one their defenders caught it.  Mercer survived another one score game.

ETSU outgained Mercer 372 to 367.  Herink went a very respectable 25/37 for 267 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception.  ETSU only rushed for 105 yards.

Mercer’s Sr QB John Russ went 17/29 and 172 yards with 3 TDs and no interceptions.  He also had 91 rushing yards, but his two fumbles allowed ETSU to keep it close.

ETSU’s defense had a good day and had 3 players record double digit tackles with Ryan Powers leading at 12. They also sacked Russ twice.

Mercer’s leading tackler was Eric Jackson with 11.  They got to the ETSU QB 3 times and recorded 4 other tackles for loss.

Besides the fumbles, one more thing that hurt Mercer was penalties, as expected. They lead the SOCON in penalties. They had 11 in this game for 92 yards.

With the win Mercer is now 5-4.  While they might rate a closer look for the playoffs if they win out to be 7-4, it will be a tough road considering the rest of the field this year.  They face Samford next week on the road.  ETSU gets NAIA Cumberland, Tenn next week at home.

Power Rankings

1 – The Citadel

2 – Chattanooga

3 – Samford

4 – Wofford

5 – Mercer

6 – Furman

7 – WCU

8 – VMI

9 – ETSU

MVFC: Week 10 Preview

Hey everyone, sorry this preview is coming out so late in the week. I’ve been a Cubs fan for ~32  years (I’m 38) so I was (understandably) a bit distracted this week. Hopefully those of you who do read it before the games can get some good info out of it, and if it’s after the games, well you’re welcome to run through it to see if I was anywhere close on my predictions.

Down to 3 weeks left in the regular season and here’s where things stand in the MVFC (conference record, then overall record):

MVFC Logo#3 North Dakota State: 4-1, 7-1
#14 Youngstown State: 4-1, 6-2
#12 South Dakota State: 4-1, 5-3
#16 Western Illinois: 3-2, 6-2
#26 South Dakota: 3-2, 4-4
Missouri State: 2-3, 4-4
#33 Northern Iowa: 2-3, 3-5
Illinois State: 2-4, 4-5
Indiana State: 2-4, 4-5
Southern Illinois: 0-5, 2-6

And the schedule for this weekend is as follows (all time listed in Central):

  • #33 Northern Iowa at Indiana State @ 12 PM
  • Illinois State at #16 Western Illinois @ 1 PM
  • #26 South Dakota at Southern Illinois @ 2 PM
  • Missouri State at #12 South Dakota State @ 2 PM
  • #14 Youngstown State at #3 North Dakota State @ 2:30 PM

If we consider 7 wins to be the “threshold” for playoff consideration then here’s what the teams need to do to have a shot at the playoffs (outside of the conference autobid):

  • NDSU – already reached 7 wins
  • YSU – need to win 1 out of 3
  • SDSU – need to win 2 out of 3
  • WIU – need to win 1 out of 3
  • USD – need to win all 3
  • MSU – winning out will only reach 6 DI wins (it’d be 7 total wins, but one was a NAIA school)
  • UNI – winning out will only reach 6 wins
  • ISUr – winning out will only reach 6 wins
  • ISUb – winning out will only reach 6 wins
  • SIU – winning out will only reach 5 wins

I’m also going to be switching up the format of my articles a bit. I kinda feel like they were getting a bit “numbers-heavy”, so I’ll try to lean away from that a bit and more towards just general thoughts and analysis. If you notice the change and like it/hate it/don’t care, feel free to let me know over on AGS (ST_Lawson) or on Twitter (also ST_Lawson).

On to the games…

#33 Northern Iowa at Indiana State

At this point, it looks like neither of these teams will be making the playoffs since the best that either can do is to reach 6 wins if they win out. UNI is 3-5 overall after their narrow loss to NDSU last weekend, 24-20, in a game where a talented but young (starting his second game) UNI QB Eli Dunne had trouble connecting with receivers and threw 4 interceptions. ISU also lost a close one last week to a team competing for the conference championship, losing 13-10 at Youngstown State. The ISU defense held the YSU offense (if you could call them that) to no offensive TDs (only a special teams TD and 2 FGs), but was unable to move the ball against the YSU defense. ISU comes into this game at 4-5 overall.

The Panthers, like the Penguins, have a pretty strong defense. Not quite as good against the run, but very comparable against the pass (they’re the only two teams in the conference allowing fewer than 200 yards per game through the air). This is bad news for the Sycamores, since they rely so much on their 15th ranked (in the FCS) passing attack, which accounts for ~70% of their total offensive yardage. And that isn’t to say that UNI isn’t decent at stopping the run as well, because a large part of their success has been the ability of their star D-lineman Karter Schult to get pressure on opposing QBs. Schult currently leads the entire FCS in sacks and is 6th in tackles for loss, and when you’ve got a guy like that on the front lines, he can also do quite a bit to stop a RB that’s unlucky enough to find themselves in his vicinity.

ISU’s defense, however, has been fairly mediocre, giving up 31 points per game this season and ranking in the bottom half of the conference for most defensive measures. UNI’s offense spent much of the season running the ball, which their coaching staff eventually realized was not very effective and put in the previously-mentioned QB Eli Dunne to try to turn a QB-run-heavy offense into more of a QB-pocket-passing offense. They figured out something was working with the new offense when they destroyed Missouri State two weeks ago, and then last week, if it weren’t for the 4 interceptions, they very likely would have won the game against NDSU. Some of that is on the NDSU defense, but a lot of it is probably due to the lack of time spent practicing the offense as it runs under Dunne as opposed to the previous QB, Bailey. Dunne and his receivers had trouble connecting. On the defensive side of the ball, ISU is no NDSU. NDSU hasn’t been great against the pass this year, but ISU is a bit worse, and they have nothing even coming close to the level of their ability to stop the run or put pressure on the QB.

I think that this matchup favors the Panthers pretty solidly. With another week of practice to get the new system in their heads and going against a defense that will probably not put a ton of pressure on the QB, UNI should be able to put up some decent yardage and points. Not quite on the level of their MSU game, but more than the NDSU game. ISU will have trouble, likely on the level of what they did against Youngstown State (10 points) or slightly more. So, personally, I think something in the neighborhood of a 32-17 win for the Panthers is likely.

TL:DR – Northern Iowa by 15

Illinois State at #16 Western Illinois

Western Illinois kept their playoff hopes alive last weekend with an exciting come from behind victory at South Dakota. The Leathernecks are currently 6-2 overall and are in good position to win at least one or two of their last three to garner an at-large spot in the FCS playoffs. Illinois State’s season started off great but then went into freefall, losing 4 straight games, before starting to turn things around with a win…it was over the worst team in the conference…but it was still a win. Last weekend, however, the ISU defense really stepped up and showed that they could still play like the team that held Northwestern to 7 points early in the season, nabbing 3 interceptions (including one GIANT pick-6) against one of the best offensive teams in the conference, SDSU.

Amazingly (or maybe surprisingly), the defense of the 16th ranked Leathernecks is pretty bad. They’re in the lower half of the conference for allowing yards on the ground, but dead-last in the conference in allowing yardage through the air, giving up an average of just under 300 passing yards per game. That being said, when it comes down to “crunch time”…near the end of the game or during a very important drive, for example, the Leatherneck defense has frequently been able to come up with critical stops, which is why, despite giving up the most yardage of any team in the conference, they are right in the middle of the conference in points allowed. Illinois State hasn’t had a great offense. They weren’t bad earlier in the season, but after losing RB George Moreira a few weeks ago, the offense has gotten somewhat one-dimensional (although getting better with a couple of other players stepping up to fill that vacancy). They’re a little better at their passing game, which could be a bit of an advantage, since the Leathernecks have been prone to giving up big passing plays.

Illinois State’s defense has played very up and down this season. As I mentioned before, they held Northwestern (of the Big 10) to only 7 points, and then last weekend, picked off one of the better QBs in the conference 3 times helping them take down the team that was the frontrunner for the conference championship, SDSU. But then in other games, they’ve performed like more like the lower half of the conference-ranked defense that they are. Western’s offense has been pretty good this season, boasting the conference’s top rusher in RB Steve McShane and the second-best receiver in the MVFC in WR Lance Lenoir, and is very balanced, being in the upper-middle of the conference rankings in both ground yardage and passing yardage.

I think that it’s really going to depend on how the ISU defense holds up. If they play like they did last weekend, it could be a close one. If they can’t come up with a couple of interceptions and quite a few pass breakups, then they could have a rough time. I’m hoping for the latter, personally, and think we’ll see the Leathernecks win by about at TD. Another note on this game, it’s the longest-played rivalry for WIU and (I believe) the #2 longest for Illinois State, with this being the 99th meeting overall between the two teams going back to 1904.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 7

#26 South Dakota at Southern Illinois

South Dakota saw their playoff hopes all but disappear last weekend when they squandered a 17-point halftime lead in their 1-point loss to Western Illinois. They’re sitting at 4-4 overall with 3 games remaining, so they could theoretically still make the playoffs, however their last two games are against probably the two best teams in the conference. SIU on the other hand, saw their playoff hopes evaporate weeks ago and are now 2-6, so they’re essentially spending the last part of the season playing for “bragging rights”, getting experience for their younger players, and trying to “play spoiler” for a few teams that do still have a shot at the postseason with games against Youngstown State and Western Illinois looming in the final couple of weeks.

The USD offense, led by QB Chris Streveler, is pretty decent, and is now fairly balanced especially with WR Brandt Van Roekel coming back after being out for 4 games due to injury to catch for 137 yards against the Leathernecks last week. Streveler also put up a stellar performance accounting for a combined 480 yards and 3 TDs in the loss and can be a big running threat for a QB. Trying to stop the USD offense will be the Saluki defense, which, to be honest, has not been great this year (not that I have a lot of room to talk, as a Leatherneck fan). SIU’s pass defense is nearly as bad as Western’s (who, as I mentioned earlier, is last in the conference), and their rushing defense is about the same…not the worst, but not great either…lower-middle of the conference. So, I think we can probably expect that the USD offense will probably do about as well against the SIU defense as they did against WIU (34 points and 527 total yards).

The SIU offense is heavily based on their passing attack…I’d actually say that they challenge SDSU for the best passing game in the conference…they have the best completion percentage, the fewest passes that have been intercepted, and the second best total passing yardage in the MVFC. However, unlike SDSU, the don’t have too much else, “boasting” the second worst running game in the Valley. I think it’s actually rather impressive that their passing game is so good because a lot of teams use the run to set up the pass, but SIU has been able to get that done without a good running game. As mentioned before though, having really only a passing game doesn’t quite get it done in the MVFC, with the Salukis sitting at the bottom of the conference standings. The Coyote defense isn’t really much better than SIU’s though. Their pass defense is quite a bit better than Southern’s, but their rushing defense is last in the conference.

One other thing to keep in mind is that USD also has the best overall kicking game in the conference, if not the FCS, with P/K Miles Bergner currently averaging 46.2 yards per punt which puts him at #2 in the FCS and #1 in the conference. Bergner is also one of the best FG kickers. He missed a 56-yarder under a lot of pressure last weekend, but that was only his second miss of the game and considering all four of USD’s wins were by 3 points and he hit at FG in 3 of them. The play of Bergner has made a huge difference in picking up a win vs a loss for the Coyotes.

Overall, I think that SIU will have trouble moving the ball against USD. With the fairly one-dimensional offense being focused on USD’s defensive strength, I think they’ll handle that pretty well. SIU’s defense however, will likely struggle stopping USD’s offense. I think you can probably expect the Coyotes to put up something around 35-40 points, while holding the Saluki offense to something closer to 20-25.

TL:DR – South Dakota by 13

Missouri State at #12 South Dakota State

Last year, Missouri State had a pretty rough season going winless in DI play. This year, the Bears have taken a pretty big step forward, winning 4 games so far, 3 of them against DI teams, and even the games they haven’t won, they’ve often played tougher than they had been in the last year or two (except for the UNI game). They’re sitting at 4-4 overall after a come-from-behind win over SIU last weekend. South Dakota State had been rolling along pretty well, taking down fellow “top dogs” NDSU (at the Fargodome) and then YSU in back-to-back weeks, before suffering a late-season let-down, falling 38-21 to Illinois State in a game where SDSU QB Taryn Christion uncharacteristically threw 3 interceptions.

Led by the previously mentioned QB Christion, the SDSU offense is one of the most potent passing offenses in the entire FCS with Dallas Goedert, a big TE who runs like a tank and will probably be getting some playing time on Sundays in the near future, and Jake Wieneke, a WR who is projected to break the conference yardage record before the end of this year (could be this game, he’s less than 100 yards away from it)…and he’s still a Junior. It’s not a hyperbole to say that he’s the best WR that the MVFC has seen in a long long time, if not ever. On the rushing front, they’re not great, but they’re effective enough to keep the defenses “honest” and allow the receivers to find coverage gaps. Going against the SDSU offense will be the MSU defense, who is pretty decent against the run, but like WIU and SIU, is really bad against the pass (this is really bad news if you have to play SDSU…see WIU @ SDSU earlier in the season for example…they hung 52 points on us and had 2 100+ yard receivers.

MSU’s offense is run by the guy who was supposed to be the backup QB until the starter was suspended for the season for allegedly punching a dog….yeah….seriously. It’s hard to say if the former starting QB would have fared any better this season, but currently MSU’s offense puts up the fewest yards per game of any team in the conference and they’re pretty well balanced…equally ineffective in both the run game and the passing game. They do have a couple of playmakers at WR, but the QB has had trouble getting the ball to them. Attempting to stop them will be the SDSU defense, who hasn’t been stellar, but has mostly been effective enough. They’re much better against the pass than they are against the run though, with two LBs (one a Redshirt Freshman), Jesse Bobbit and Christian Rozeboom who are currently #3 and #4 in the conference in tackles, so that also bodes well for SDSU in this game. SDSU doesn’t get a ton of pressure across the line of scrimmage, but they’ve been pretty effective at stopping anything that does come across that line.

Personally, I think that the SDSU offense will come back with a bit of an “edge” after losing to Illinois State and will put up some huge numbers against MSU. If I’m looking at previous opponents, the SDSU defense has effectively shut down much better offenses than MSU has (WIU and NDSU, for example) and I don’t think MSU will have a lot of success moving the ball against SDSU’s talented LBs. It’s hard to predict exactly what the score might be when I think it might be something of a “blowout”, but I think SDSU could easily put up something in the upper-40’s or maybe low-50’s, and MSU probably won’t get to 20 points.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 30

#14 Youngstown State at #3 North Dakota State

This is the “big game” in the conference this week…the only one matching up two ranked MVFC teams, two teams that are both likely to be playing after Thanksgiving, and with both teams sitting at 4-1 in the conference, will go a long way towards determining who will be the conference champion. Youngstown State comes into this game after a close home win over Indiana State where the Penguin offense (QB, WRs, RBs) didn’t score any points. The 13-10 victory was tallied via two field goals and one punt returned for a TD by the special teams kick return unit. Their defense was able to step up though and held the typically-productive Sycamores to only 10 points. The Bison are coming off a close victory of their own, after picking off UNI QB Eli Dunne 4 times to lock down a 24-20 win at the UNIDome.

The Penguin offense is dependent upon the run. They’re dead last in the conference at passing the ball but the best team in the conference at running the ball. Unfortunately that doesn’t appear to generally equate to many points, with them also ranking dead last in scoring. They also have had some question marks in terms of the QB position, but are currently starting a QB who was a former starter but was sitting out the season with the intent to likely transfer for next season, Hunter Wells. In his first game back, Wells wasn’t asked to do much in terms of passing, handing off the ball mostly to RB Martin Ruiz, a talented back, but somewhat hindered by the one-dimensional-ness of their offense. The team that they’ll be attempting to run the ball against is only the #1 team in the MVFC at stopping the run…the Bison defense. NDSU has a saying that “the strength of the Bison is the Herd” and that really applies to the NDSU defense. With star LB Nick DeLuca out for the season with a shoulder injury, there isn’t really one “big” star, but a bunch of players who all contribute very solidly across the board, and it’s very effective. If they have a weakness however, it’s that they have shown themselves to be somewhat vulnerable to the passing game, sitting right around the middle of the conference in that measure.

So, back to Youngstown State…how does a team that is ranked dead last in passing and more importantly, in scoring points, end up 4-1 in the conference? Defense…Defense…Defense. Second only to NDSU in their run defense and #1 in the conference in the pass defense, and when combined results in a team that is the 3rd best in the entire FCS at preventing other teams from scoring. So, they don’t put up many points, but they usually give up even fewer. This starts with their fearsome front line, bookended by probably the best DE duo in the FCS with Avery Moss and Derek Rivers. These two are the 5th and 6th best in the entire FCS in sacks, and are very good at making sure the ball does not get past (or at least, not very far past) the line of scrimmage if it’s in someone’s hands. Attempting to cross that line will be the NDSU offense led by QB Easton Stick. Like the Penguins, the Bison have a strong running attack but not a great passing game. It’s obviously been effective enough, but with Stick being a running threat, and two great RBs in King Frazier and Lance Dunn, they haven’t had to rely on it too often.

I think that this is going to be a very interesting game to watch. Two old-school, smash-mouth, strong defense, big running game teams just slamming into each other over and over again. I think that NDSU has a little bit of an edge though, for a few reasons.

  1. This game is in the Fargodome…a difficult place to play a game. They have lost a few there…in the last 5 years plus this year so far, NDSU has lost 6 games, with 5 of them being to conference members and 4 of them being at home. But still, that makes them 45-4 at home over that timeframe.
  2. NDSU doesn’t have a great passing game, but they do have one, with a couple of guys averaging just under 50 yards a game receiving. Youngstown State by comparison, has nobody that averages over 30 yards per game receiving. That’s practically no passing game to speak of.
  3. When it comes to playing this time of “grind out a win” football…NDSU has been doing this better and for quite a bit longer than YSU has been doing it. They know how to win the close games.

So, I think that it’ll be a big defensive battle, very low scoring, but the difference will be that Stick will connect with one TD pass at some point. Everything else is holding to punts, with occasional FGs. Might end up being a little more, but I could seriously see 10 points winning this game. Probably something in the range of a 10-6 NDSU victory.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 4