The FCS Wedge

MVFC: Week 12 Review

The final week of the regular season, and for many teams, their final game of the year. Let’s start off with just the scores…

Youngstown State – 65
Missouri State – 20

North Dakota State – 28
South Dakota – 21

Western Illinois – 34
Southern Illinois – 44

South Dakota State – 45
Northern Iowa – 24

Youngstown State at Missouri State

YSU came into the game with their playoff spot pretty much assured already, although a solid win would remove any doubt, as well as give the Penguins a confidence boost heading into the postseason. MSU was looking to possibly spoil YSU’s chances and reach 5 wins…still not a winning season, but a big step up from last year.

The first quarter was all YSU, with TDs on 3 consecutive possessions, while nabbing an interception, a fumble recovery, and holding the Bears to a punt, to go up 14-0. In the second quarter, the Penguins had TDs on a 52 yard run by RB Jody Webb and a 94 yard run by RB Martin Ruiz, as well as a more “standard” drive ending in a 4-yard TD pass to WR Alvin Bailey. Meanwhile, MSU was able to pick up a 33-yard FG and a 1-play, 63-yard “drive” with a TD pass to WR Zac Hoover. Still though, MSU was already quite a ways behind, with the halftime score of 34-10.

In the second half, MSU started with the ball, but very quickly gave it to YSU on a fumble. Two plays later RB Jody Webb would run for another 50+ TD run, this time from 53 yards out. The next possession for MSU, they didn’t even need a couple of extra plays because MSU QB Brodie Lambert was sacked causing him to fumble the ball, which was picked up and taken back for another YSU TD. The Bears were able to get a TD early in the 4th quarter on a 11-yard TD pass to TE Erik Furmanek, in large part due to two 15-yard penalties on YSU…personal foul, then pass interference. And they picked up 3 more on a 32-yard FG, but all-in-all, a near-complete rout of Missouri State with the final score of 65-20. YSU’s 65 points was more than they had put up in the last 5 games combined and their 747 total yards was a school record.

Youngstown State QB Hunter Wells threw for 157 yards and 1 TD, and was 15 of 16 on passes, but the big news was their ground game. RB Joe Alessi led the team with 190 yards and 2 TDs (and got the MVFC Newcomer of the Week award for it), RB Martin Ruiz had 183 yards and 3 TDs, and RB Jody Webb had 166 yards and 2 TDs as well as 49 receiving yards. WR Alvin Bailey had 33 receiving yards and 1 TD. S LeRoy Alexander had 7 tackles and an interception returned 28 yards, CB Kenny Bishop, DE Derek Rivers, and DT Donald Mesier all had fumble recoveries, with Bishop’s being the one taken back for a TD. YSU finished the regular season at #1 in the FCS for team sacks with 3.64 per game, with Rivers finishing 9th in the FCS with 0.91 per game and DE Avery Moss finishing 12th with .86 per game.

Missouri State QB Brodie Lambert threw for 197 yards and 2 TDs and had 1 interception and 2 fumbles. TE Zac Hoover led the team with 63 receiving yards and a TD, and WR Deion Holliman led with 31 rushing yards. LB Dylan Cole again led the team with 16 total tackles, and S Austin Henderson had a forced fumble. Cole finished the regular season #1 in the FCS in total tackles with 12.8 per game and #2 in the FCS in solo tackles with 7.6 per game.

Missouri State finished their season 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference. Youngstown State solidified their playoff spot with a final regular season record of 8-3 overall and 6-2 in the conference. They will play against the 7-4 Samford Bulldogs next Saturday.

North Dakota State at South Dakota

The Bison also came into this game with their playoff spot secured, but in their case, looking for another win to lock in a top seed. South Dakota was sitting at 4 wins, so, like Missouri State, was only playing for bragging rights. Unlike the YSU/MSU game though, this one was a lot closer.

The scoring got started about halfway through the first quarter with a 1-yard TD run by RB King Frazier to put NDSU up 7-0. The next drive, though, USD was able to tie it up on a 36-yard TD pass to WR Tacari Carpenter. The second quarter, NDSU was able to start to pull away, getting a TD on a 40-yard pass to WR Darrius Shepherd, which was then matched with a long USD drive finishing in a 1-yard QB run by Chris Streveler to tie it up again 14-all. NDSU answered with an 81 yard drive that was capped with a 13-yard pass to TE Jeff Illies and would take the 7-point lead to halftime, with a score of 21-14.

In the second half, NDSU would pick up another TD on their first drive finishing with a 6-yard pass to TE Connor Wentz (cousin of former NDSU QB and current Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz), going ahead by 2 scores. For most of the rest of the game, the two teams were essentially at a defensive stalemate, holding each other to punt after punt. Then early in the 4th quarter, a fumble by NDSU RB Chase Morlock helped set up a UDS drive that got them a TD on a 12-yard pass to WR Alonge Brooks to pull within 7. USD would hold NDSU to another punt and then start to work their way back down the field again. A defensive offsides penalty for NDSU extended the drive on what would have been a 4th and 10, but gave USD a first down. They’d eventually get down to the NDSU 24 yard line, but on 4th and 9, would throw an incomplete pass, giving the ball back to NDSU with about 5 minutes left. For many teams, that’s more than enough time to get a stop and have another drive, but against the Bison, at the end of the game, late in the season…that’s not going to work. They proceeded to use 11 plays to pick up 4 first downs and eat up the entire rest of the clock, ending in a 28-21 win for NDSU.

NDSU QB Easton Stick threw for 154 yards, 3 TDs, and had 1 interception and 1 sack. RB Lance Dunn led the team with 145 rushing yards, and RB King Frazier had 91 yards and a TD. WR Darrius Shepherd had 47 receiving yards and a TD, and TEs Jeff Illies and Connor Wentz each had receiving TDs. DE Greg Menard and LBs Pierre Gee-Tucker and MJ Stumpf all had 6 tackles, with Menard also having a sack and a forced fumble.

USD QB Chris Streveler had 184 passing yards and 2 TDs as well as 63 rushing yards and 1 TD on the ground. RB Michael Fredrick led the team with 71 rushing yards and WR Tacari Carpenter led the team with 51 receiving yards and a TD. WR Alonge Brooks also had 1 TD. DB Adam Harris led the team with 10 tackles, DB Jet Moreland had 7 and a forced fumble, and DB Danny Rambo had an interception. K/P Miles Bergner continued his kicking success with 6 punts averaging 51.8 yards and a long of 65, which earned him the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week for the fourth time this season and ninth time in his career, and finished the regular season at #1 in the FCS for punting average at 47.5 yards per punt, which is the 2nd best season performance for a punter in MVFC history.

South Dakota finished their season 4-7 overall and 3-5 in the MVFC. North Dakota State finished 10-1 overall and 7-1 in the conference and earned the #1 seed in the FCS Playoffs. They have the next weekend off and will play the winner of Cal Poly and San Diego (their game on 11/26) at the Fargodome on December 3rd.

Western Illinois at Southern Illinois

Like the previous two games, this game was between a team that had their minds set on the playoffs going on the road against a team that was just looking to end their season on a high note. Western Illinois headed down to Carbondale with 6 wins and needing one more to make a spot for themselves in the FCS playoffs. Southern was sitting at 3 wins and last in the conference, so this would be their last game of the season regardless of what happened.

Things started off rough for the Leathernecks right off the bat with an interception during their first drive. SIU then took 3 plays to turn that into a TD on a 13-yard pass to RB D.J. Davis . WIU got down the field on their next possession, but was only able to come away with a field goal from 34 yards out. The next drive for SIU finished with a 14-yard TD pass to WR Israel Lamprakes and SIU was up early 14-3. Early in the 2nd quarter, WIU would get their opportunity, when on SIU’s first play from scrimmage of the quarter, a fumble gave Western the ball at the SIU 12. Two plays including an 11-yard QB run by Sean McGuire and WIU would have their first TD. Two more plays later, SIU would throw an interception to true freshman DB Mike Viti and on the next play from scrimmage, the Leathernecks would go ahead on a 59-yard TD pass to RB Steve McShane. Deeper into the second quarter, a 44-yard pass to WIU WR Isaiah Lesure would help set up a 3-yard TD pass to WR Lance Lenoir to put the Leathernecks ahead 24-14 going into halftime.

SIU would start with the ball in the second half, but four plays later, throw an interception to DB Xavier Rowe. WIU would take 5 plays in the drive to turn the INT into a TD on a 9-yard toss to TE Joe Turk to put the Leathernecks solidly in the lead, 31-14 and looked like it would clear sailing through the rest of the game and on into the playoffs. A 28-yard FG for SIU on their next drive would get them a little closer. A few drives later, in the last few seconds of the 3rd quarter, SIU would get a TD on a 3-yard run by RB Jonathan Mixon. Early in the 4th, WIU would get close to the red zone again, but would have to settle for a 39-yard FG (which was pretty impressive considering the significant wind that day). SIU threw an interception on their next drive, but WIU was unable to turn it into points missing a 35-yard FG. And that’s when everything went horribly wrong for the Leathernecks. SIU got the ball at their own 20…completed a 37-yard pass to WR Billy Reed, and then a 43-yard TD pass, again to Reed, to pull the Salukis within 3. WIU had a good first play (29-yard pass), but was stopped and forced to punt, giving SIU the ball at their 30 yard line. On the very next play, SIU QB Sam Straub would hit WR Israel Lamprakes for a 70-yard TD pass to take the lead 38-34. The next play from scrimmage, WIU would throw an interception to SIU S Jeremy Chinn giving them the ball at their own 31. 5 plays and a 54-yard run by RB Jonathan Mixon and SIU would suddenly find themselves up by 10 with under 3 minutes left to play. Then…three plays into the next Western drive, another interception, this time by SIU S Ryan Neal. All SIU had to do at that point was to run out the clock for the Saluki victory of 44-34.

SIU QB Sam Straub threw for a school-record 450 yards and 4 TDs along with 3 interceptions, and earned himself the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week award. WR Israel Lamprakes caught for 203 yards and 2 TDs and WR Billy Reed had 138 yards and 1 TD. RB D.J. Davis also caught a TD. RB Jonathan Mixon ran for 96 yards and 2 TDs. Defensively, LB Chase Allen led the team with 11 tackles. S. Jeremy Chinn had 8 tackles and an interception and DBs Craig James and Ryan Neal also had interceptions.

WIU QB Sean McGuire had 337 passing yards and 3 TDs, but also 3 interceptions, as well as 1 rushing TD. WR Jaelon Acklin led the team with 90 yards receiving, WR Lance Lenoir had 81 yards and a TD and RB Steve McShane had 56 yards and a TD receiving as well as 82 yards rushing. Transfer TE Joe Turk also had his first career TD. LB Brett Taylor finished with 15 tackles, 7 solo tackles and ended the season at #1 in the FCS in solo tackles with 8.4 per game and #3 in the FCS in total tackles with 12.2 per game. Freshman DB Mike Viti had 11 tackles, 1 interception, and 5 pass breakups; DB Eric Carrera had 10 tackles including 1 sack and a forced fumble; DB Xavier Rowe had 7 and 2 interceptions, and LB Quentin Moon had 2 fumble recoveries.

Southern Illinois finished their season at 4-7 overall and 2-7 in the conference. Western Illinois, despite having the same 6-5 overall record as last year and having an impressive out-of-conference record (including a win over FBS Northern Illinois), was not selected for a playoff spot, in large part due to finishing the season with 3 straight losses and having a couple of questionable losses (including this one to SIU).

South Dakota State at Northern Iowa

And in the final MVFC game of the weekend, the Jackrabbits headed down to Cedar Falls, IA to try to get one more win to possibly lock in a top-8 playoff seed. With a loss, they’d still be in the playoffs, but a seed gets them a first round bye and hosting the second round game. Northern Iowa, despite a very impressive schedule and some quality wins found themselves at 5 wins and needing one more to have a decent shot at a playoff spot.

The first quarter of this game made it seem like it was going to be a fairly high-scoring “shootout” of a game, with teams trading TDs in the first four possessions. First, SDSU on a 30-yard pass to WR Jake Wieneke, then UNI on a 36-yard pass to WR Jalen Rima, back to SDSU with a (if I’m reading this correctly) a 16-yard pass FROM WR Jake Wieneke TO QB Taryn Christion, and then UNI just not wasting any time, with Rima returning the ensuing kickoff 99 yards for the TD. After all this excitement, it was all tied up at 14 and we were only about 7 minutes into the game. On UNI’s next drive, however, they threw an interception and SDSU was able to work down the field finishing with a 5-yard TD pass to Wieneke to go ahead by 7. A missed FG by SDSU from 52 yards out, a successful FG for UNI from 20 yards, SDSU fumble, UNI interception, and they went into halftime with South Dakota State up 21-17.

In the second half, UNI would start with the ball but be held to a 3-and-out. SDSU then find their way back to the end zone on an 11-yard run by QB Christion. UNI would respond with a TD drive of their own, highlighted by a 32-yard reception by WR Daurice Fountain and ending in a 1-yard TD run by RB J’Veyon Browning to make it 28-24 Jackrabbits with just over 4 minutes left in the 3rd. And, like the previous game between WIU and SIU….this is when things would start to go horribly wrong for UNI. UNI held SDSU to a punt on their next drive, but on the kick return, WR Jalen Rima fumbled the return, giving the ball right back to SDSU. They would then move down the field and finish with a 3-yard TD run by RB Kyle Paris. A 3-and-out for UNI followed by a SDSU drive ending in a 32-yard FG put the Jackrabbits up 38-24 with about 5 ½ minutes left in the game. UNI spent the next few minutes driving down the field, hoping to potentially make it a 1-possession game, but they would only make it as close as the SDSU 31 yard line, when UNI QB Eli Dunne would throw an interception to SDSU DL Kellen Soulek which was taken back 65 yards for a TD, essentially ending the game by putting SDSU up 45-24 in the final 90 seconds of play.

UNI QB Eli Dunne had 295 yards passing w/ 1 TD, as well as 3 interceptions and 2 sacks.WR Daurice Fountain led the team with 75 receiving yards and WR Jalen Rima had 66 yards and a TD. WR Marcus Weymiller had 39 yards rushing, and RB J’Veyon Browning had a rushing TD. LB Duncan Ferch finished with 12 total tackles. DL Karter Schult had 7 tackles and 1 sack and finished the season at #1 in the FCS in sacks with 1.55 per game and #2 in the FCS in tackles for loss with 2.2 per game.

SDSU QB Taryn Christion had 272 yards and 2 TDs passing, 25 yards and 1 TD rushing, and 16 yards and 1 TD receiving (ok, so I did read that correctly). Christion finishes the season at #4 in the FCS for passing TDs with 29, and #5 in the FCS in passing yards with 3,369. WR Jake Wieneke finished with 136 yards and 2 TDs receiving as well as 16 yards and 1 TD passing. For the regular season, he finished #1 in the FCS with 16 receiving TDs and #4 in receiving yards with 1,204. His 4,080 career receiving yards and 43 receiving TDs now puts him solidly at #1 in MVFC history for both of those stats…with his senior year still ahead of him. TE Dallas Goedert had 74 yards and finishes the regular season at 6th in the FCS with 1,146 receiving yards. RB Brady Mengarelli led the team with 60 rushing yards and RB Kyle Paris had 1 rushing TD. DB Nick Mears led the team with 10 tackles; DBs Dallas Brown and Chris Balster each had 7 tackles and 1 interception, with Brown also having a forced fumble and earning the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award. DL Kellen Soulek had the 65-yard pick-6 to effectively end the game.

Despite a very tough schedule, a win over FBS Iowa State, and some close losses to some very good teams, 5 wins just won’t get you into the playoffs, so Northern Iowa’s season ends with them sitting at 5-6 overall and 4-4 in the conference. South Dakota State, by virtue of their solid win, earned the #8 seed in the FCS playoffs and (like NDSU) will receive a first-round bye this next weekend. On December 3rd, they will play the winner of this coming Saturday’s game between Villanova and St. Francis (PA). The Jackrabbits ended their regular season at 8-3 overall and 7-1 in the conference and tied with NDSU for the conference championship (although they technically had the auto-bid due to the earlier head-to-head win over the Bison).

Illinois State and Indiana State

The two ISU’s didn’t play this last weekend, since their conference season started a week earlier than everyone else and they were both on bye this last weekend. Indiana State finished 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference. Illinois State, who finished the season strongly and at 6-5 overall, 4-4 in the conference, and had wins over the Big 10’s Northwestern as well as top-8 seed SDSU and a decent WIU team, were able to sneak into the playoffs as the 2nd ever 6-5 team selected for an at-large spot in the playoffs. They will travel down to Conway, Arkansas to take on the 9-2 Central Arkansas Bears next Saturday.

Final Regular Season Conference Standings

Name – Conference Record, Overall Record

North Dakota State – 7-1, 10-1
South Dakota State – 7-1, 8-3
Youngstown State – 6-2, 8-3
Illinois State – 4-4, 6-5
Northern Iowa – 4-4, 5-6
Western Illinois – 3-5, 6-5
South Dakota – 3-5, 4-7
Indiana State – 2-6, 4-7
Missouri State – 2-6, 4-7
Southern Illinois – 2-6, 4-7

Check back later this week for my preview of the two MVFC first-round games with Samford at Youngstown State and Illinois State at Central Arkansas.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 12 Results

With the regular season for most FCS teams in the books the AGS top 25 took some interesting turns ahead of this morning’s release of the NCAA tournament bracket. For the first time since week 7 there was a change at the top as North Dakota State edged in front of Eastern Washington. James Madison pulled into a tie at #3 with Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State cracked back into the top 5 at #5 pushing The Citadel down to #6.

South Dakota State, North Dakota, Youngstown State, and Villanova all took advantage of teams in front of them losing to move into the top 10. New Hampshire shot up 8 spots to crack the top 25 at #18 after their huge road win at Maine. Weber State and North Carolina Central each moved up 6 spots to get into the top 25 at #21 and #22, respectively. Albany also got back into the top 25 coming in at #25, a 5 spot jump from last week.

We saw the typical last week chaos as several teams sustained losses to either give themselves a Selection Sunday sweat or end their playoff hopes altogether. Richmond and Central Arkansas likely lost playoff seeds each falling 5 and 4 spots, respectively, to come in tied at #12. Samford dropped 8 spots all the way to #20 after their head scratching loss to East Tennessee State. North Carolina A&T also plummeted 9 spots to #24 following their loss to North Carolina Central which, while knocking them out of the Celebration Bowl, may allow them to be selected for the FCS playoffs. Maine, Montana, Western Illinois, and Northern Iowa all lost to drop out of the 25 this week and likely end their seasons when wins would’ve likely put any one of them in the playoffs.

The CAA led the way placing 5 teams in the top 25. They were followed by the Big Sky, MVFC, and SOCON who each played 4. The FCS playoff bracket will be revealed at 11AM ET on ESPNU.

Full results below:

Rank	Team:	Total Points	First Place Votes
1	North Dakota State Bison	1636	32
2	Eastern Washington Eagles	1631	24
3T	Jacksonville State Gamecocks	1509	4
3T	James Madison Dukes	1509	4
5	Sam Houston State Bearkats	1505	4
6	The Citadel Bulldogs	1364
7	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	1284
8	North Dakota Fighting Hawks	1208
9	Youngstown State Penguins	1019
10	Villanova Wildcats	1004
11	Chattanooga Mocs	966
12T	Richmond Spiders	917
12T	Central Arkansas Bears	917
14	Charleston Southern Buccaneers	814
15	Lehigh Mountain Hawks	788
16	Wofford Terriers	755
17	Cal Poly Mustangs	585
18	New Hampshire Wildcats	393
19	Grambling State Tigers	357
20	Samford Bulldogs	334
21	Weber State Wildcats	277
22	North Carolina Central Eagles	270
23	Illinois State Redbirds	267
24	North Carolina A&T Aggies	216
25	Albany Great Danes	214
ORV:
26	Fordham Rams	89
27	San Diego Toreros	56
28	Princeton Tigers	51
29	Southeastern Louisiana Lions	36
30	Saint Francis Red Flash	27
31	Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks	25
32	Maine Black Bears	24
33	Pennsylvania Quakers	17
34	Western Illinois Leathernecks	12
35	Montana Grizzlies	11
36	Southern Utah Thunderbirds	6
37	Northern Iowa Panthers	4
38t	Duquesne Dukes	1
38t	Northern Colorado Bears	1
38t	Southern Jaguars	1

MVFC: Week 12 Preview

And here we are folks…the final week of the regular season. For some teams, they’re aiming for a solid win to grab a top seed, for others, they’re fighting for their playoff lives needing one last win to earn at least one more game, and for the rest, well….they’re playing for bragging rights and experience for next year. There’s only 4 games this week, due to the ISU’s having a bye week this weekend. So, here’s where the conference stands right now:

Team – Conference Record, Overall Record

#2 North Dakota State – 6-1, 9-1
#9 South Dakota State – 6-1, 7-3
#13 Youngstown State – 5-2, 7-3
#25 Northern Iowa – 4-3, 5-5
#23 Illinois State – 4-4, 6-5
#24 Western Illinois – 3-4, 6-4
South Dakota – 3-4, 4-6
Missouri State – 2-5, 4-6
Indiana State – 2-6, 4-7
Southern Illinois – 1-6, 3-7

Playoff Hopes

NDSU, SDSU, YSU – should all be in the playoffs regardless of what happens this weekend (unless YSU gets completely blown out by MSU…then they might drop to being “on the bubble”).

UNI, ISUr, WIU – This is the group of teams that are borderline playoff teams. Depending on how this weekend’s games go for WIU and UNI (ISUr doesn’t play), we will likely see 1-2 of these teams in the playoffs, but all 3 would be highly doubtful.

USD, MSU, ISUb, SIU – these teams are all playing for next year at this point.

The Games

#13 Youngstown State at Missouri State @ 2 PM
#2 North Dakota State at South Dakota @ 2 PM
#24 Western Illinois at Southern Illinois @ 2 PM
#9 South Dakota State at #25 Northern Iowa @ 4 PM

Youngstown State at Missouri State

The Penguins are sitting at 7 wins and are looking for one more to solidify their spot in the playoffs. A win, or even a close loss and they should be in pretty easily, although if they get blown out by MSU, they might drop to being a “borderline” team. The Bears only made it to 4 wins so far through the season, shooting for their 5th (although one was a non-DI team). Still, considering last year they won 1 game against a DII school and were winless in DI competition, that’s a step up from where they were. So, in general, there’s not too much on the line for this game outside of YSU getting themselves set up for the playoffs.

Youngstown State still has one of the best defenses in the conference, only giving up an average of 115 yards per game on the ground and 184 through the air, and led probably the best pair of DE’s in the FCS, Avery Moss and Derek Rivers. They are also giving up the fewest points of anyone in the conference (5th in the FCS) at just over 16 points per game. Lining up across from them will be the Missouri State offense, which is sitting at the bottom of the conference standings in total yards per game, and second-to-last in scoring. In general, their passing game is a little better than their run game, with WRs Malik Earl and Zac Hoover both doing reasonably well, picking up a couple of games each at around 100 yards or more receiving. WR Deion Holliman can also be a threat on kick returns, currently sitting at the top spot in the conference for combined kick return yardage and having taken both a punt and a kickoff all the way back for TDs this season.

When YSU has the ball, however, they have not been very effective at scoring points, only putting up 21 ½ points per game so far in the season. Their offense is heavily skewed towards the run, mostly because that’s about the only thing that’s been somewhat reliable for them on that side of the ball. The Penguins have had troubles finding the right QB (and keeping them healthy) this season, and are currently on their fourth QB this season (although he had been the starter the previous two years, so it’s not like he’s inexperienced). They do, however, have the best run game (in terms of total yardage) in the conference, with 3 RBs (Martin Ruiz, Jody Webb, and Tevin McCaster) who are all in the top 15 for rushing yards per game in the conference. Trying to slow down YSU’s run game is the MSU defense, who’s had trouble this season, giving up more than 32 points per game. Their run defense isn’t too bad, sitting in the middle of the MVFC for yardage given up, but their pass defense is one of the worst in the conference and in the FCS. MSU also has the worst turnover margin in the conference, losing an average of 0.7 turnovers per game (-7 turnovers in 10 games).

Overall, I don’t see Missouri State putting up a ton of points on YSU’d defense…they’re just too good and MSU doesn’t really have enough key “playmakers”. I don’t really see the Bears getting too far into double-digits…maybe ~14 points. YSU should be effective enough on offense to get past MSU’s point total, mostly with their ground game, although they should be able to hit a few key passes against the MSU defense. I think overall it’ll be a fairly low-scoring game, but YSU will likely double-up MSU’s point total…getting to around 24-28 points.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 14

North Dakota State at South Dakota

Like the previous game, this one is between a team looking to lock in their playoff position and a team that “playing for next year”. With a win, NDSU should be locked into either the #1 or #2 spot in the playoffs, assuring home field advantage all the way through the playoffs until the championship game. If they do lose, they would probably drop quite a bit in the standings, but still likely end up with a top-8 seed. South Dakota started off conference play fairly strong, going 3-1, but has struggled since, losing three straight games and eliminating them from playoff contention. They’re now sitting at 4-6 and a winning record is out of reach. It does, however, seem like nearly every game between two Dakota schools is a “rivalry” game and USD did hand NDSU their one loss last season, so there could be a bit of extra “energy” in this game due to those factors.

As has been the case most of the season, the NDSU defense is great at stopping the run…they’re the only MVFC team that’s giving up fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. Across the board their front-line is solid, led by DE Greg Menard and a pair of excellent LBs in MJ Stumpf and Pierre Gee-Tucker. The Bison defense has been somewhat vulnerable to the pass, although they have three players (DBs Tre Dempsey, Jalen Allison, and Robbie Grimsley) who are the top 3 players in the conference for interceptions per game…each averaging roughly ½ interception per game, which has helped NDSU to be tied for first (with UNI) in the conference for turnover margin per game with a +1 average (gaining 22 and only losing 12). South Dakota’s offense will be doing their best to score against the NDSU defense. Led by QB Chris Streveler, it’s primarily run-based, having the 3rd best ground game in the conference. A big part of this is the fact that Streveler (their QB) is #1 in the conference for rushing yards per game, and they have a pretty good RB with Trevor Bouma who is #5 in the conference in the same ranking. They don’t put up many passing/receiving yards, although they do have four players who are tied for 6th in the conference with 4 receiving TDs each.

NDSU’s offense is fairly similar to USD’s actually, with a QB who can put up decent numbers on the ground, as well as a very solid RB game, in this case, King Frazier and Lance Dunn who are both putting up over 60 yards per game. They don’t pass a ton, but when they do, they’re very selective and have a high success rate in yards per completion. Their offensive line is also very stout, leading the conference in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed. USD’s defense, however, is not good. They currently rank last in the conference in total yards allowed, points allowed, and what will likely spell doom for the Coyotes, rushing yards allowed. They’re a bit better against the pass, but when they’re going against a team that’s one of the best in the conference at running the ball, they’re going to have a lot of trouble.

Late in the season is when the Bison really seem to do best and I don’t think they’ll be looking past this game to the playoffs. Plus they’re playing for a bit of revenge for the loss last year. I think that the Coyotes will probably have a hard time stopping the Bison run game. USD is last in the conference for time of possession, something the Bison have prided themselves on over the years (although they’re a little down this season). I see QB Easton Stick and his RBs spending most of the day just running the ball over and over again and coming away with a fairly decisive victory.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 17

Western Illinois at Southern Illinois

After two straight losses, the Leathernecks find themselves with their backs against the wall. They’re essentially already in a “playoff situation”, having to win their final regular season game in order to extend their season into the actual playoffs (although even with a win, it’s not an assured thing). Southern Illinois meanwhile, can really only hope to play spoiler in this game, sitting at the bottom of the conference rankings and with only 3 DI wins currently.

Western Illinois’ strength is their offense, which is pretty balanced, ranking third in the MVFC in yardage both through the air and on the ground. The offensive line is pretty decent at giving the rest of the offence time to allow a play to develop, also sitting at third in the conference at preventing tackles for loss as well as sacks, specifically. SIU’s defense will likely have a hard time slowing them down, since they’re near the bottom of the conference in yards allowed. They’re one of 5 conference teams that are giving up 30+ yards per game, an odd stat considering the MVFC has usually prided itself on it’s tough defenses (there are still a few…UNI, NDSU, YSU…but not like it once was).

The Saluki offense is heavily pass-oriented, currently leading the conference with just under 320 passing yards per game, but their run game leaves a lot to be desired. They’ve had two primary QBs this season, starting senior transfer Josh Straughan for most of the season, but a couple of games ago, putting in sophomore (QB of the future) Sam Straub. It doesn’t look like there’s been any dropoff in production though, with Straub putting up 352 ½ yards per game in the two games he’s started. The Leatherneck defense is going to have to try to figure out a way to stop or at least slow down the SIU passing attack if they want to win this game, which is something they’ve had trouble with this season, ranking last in the MVFC in passing yards allowed, and frequently being burned by big passes. They’re better in short-down/goal line situations, since the field is shortened and they can get their talented LBs involved in stopping the short passing game. LB Brett Taylor is the standout, currently leading the FCS in solo tackles and sitting at 3rd overall in total tackles.

In general, it looks like both teams will likely be able to score “at will”, with lots of passing and lots of scoring. The teams look to be fairly evenly matched, but for the most part, Western has been good at winning the close games and has a bit more to fight for. I think (or maybe it’s just “hope”) that the Leatherneck defense will come up with a couple of key stops in SIU drives to give Western the advantage and come away with a narrow win.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 6

South Dakota State at Northern Iowa

This game is probably the one with the most potential playoff impact out of the conference games this week. The Jackrabbits are pretty much a lock for the playoffs no matter what happens, but a win over a good UNI team could get them into the discussion for a top-8 playoff seed, giving them a first-round bye and ensuring they don’t have to be shuffled off to Fargo early in the playoffs….again. Northern Iowa on the other hand, is fighting for a slim playoff chance. They’re currently sitting at 5 DI wins, and while a win over SDSU would only get them to 6, there has been precedence set for a 6-5 team getting into the playoffs if they have a very tough schedule, close losses to good teams, and some wins over some really good teams…all things that appear to be lining up well for UNI to potentially be the second 6-5 team selected for an at-large playoff spot…but they gotta win this one first.

The Panther offense is completely different in the later part of the season, after having replaced “passing RB” (technically QB, but in practice…not really) Aaron Bailey with sophomore (and more “standard passing QB”) Eli Dunne. This makes it a little difficult to do a straight stat-comparison of season stats, since their offense turned from a “mildly effective” run-based one to a generally “highly effective” and more balanced one more than halfway through the season. Dunne has put up 281 yards per game in the three games that he’s started, along with 6 TDs, although 5 interceptions as well. RB Michael Malloy has also really emerged in the last couple of games, with 88 yards per game and 5 TDs in the last two. SDSU’s defense has been mostly “middle-of-the-pack” in most categories, but there’s also hope for the future, with one of their most talented defensive players, LB Christian Rozeboom, being only a R-Freshman, so he’ll be terrorizing MVFC offenses for 3 more years. Rozeboom is third in the conference with tackles and has 2 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and 3 sacks this season. In general, Jackrabbit defense has been what I’d call “adequate”. Nothing spectacular, but given what their offense can do, they do well enough in most games.

So, what can the Jackrabbit offense do? Well, they lead the conference in total yards and scoring, putting up an average of 36.6 points per game. Their QB Taryn Christion is 4th in the FCS in passing TDs, they have a WR (Jake Wieneke) who is rewriting the conference career record books for receiving (as a junior) and leads the entire FCS in receiving TDs, and a TE (Dallas Goedert) who is #2 in the conference in receiving TDs and second only behind Wieneke for yards per game. They also have a very solid RB in Brady Mengarelli who leads the league in rushing yards per carry, and a O-line that is second in the MVFC at preventing tackles for loss. Going up against them is the UNI defense who just happens to be the best in the conference at stopping the pass. They’re also third in the conference against the run, at preventing the opposing team from putting points on the board, and at sacking the QB. That last one is in large part due to the extreme pressure applied by DL Karter Schult, who is #1 in the entire FCS at sacks and tackles for loss and has throughout the season accounted for a total of over 100 yards of “negative yardage” stopping opposing offensive players behind the line.

This is a very interesting matchup, with the team’s real strengths going against each other (SDSU offense vs UNI defense). UNI QB Dunne is good, but young, and has struggled with interceptions in a couple of his starts. That could lessen more as he gets more familiar with the receivers and the routes, but I think this will be the most telling stat of the game. If Dunne can put up a game like he had against Missouri State or Western Illinois, UNI has a very good chance at winning this one, but if he plays more like he did in the NDSU game (4 INTs), it could be a disappointing game for Panther fans. The UNI defense will put pressure on SDSU’s Christion, which could limit the long passes (like they often do with Wieneke), forcing them to rely more on the short passes…but they’re good there too, mostly going with Goedert on those. Overall, I think the teams are pretty evenly matched, but I think that SDSU’s passing game will be just a little too much for UNI’s defense and come away with a very close and exciting win. Still, a UNI win would not really surprise me in the least…I’d consider this a “coin flip” game…which says a lot to how far UNI has come since going 2-4 in their first 4 games.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 1

Also, one more thing, regardless of how my Leathernecks finish up, whether our season is over Saturday afternoon or if it extends into next week or even further, I’ll be continuing my write-ups for all games involving MVFC teams for as long as MVFC teams are playing…which given how NDSU has done the last 5 years in the postseason, could be all the way to the end.

Patriot League: Week 12 Preview

Where does the time go? It’s hard to believe but the 2016 Patriot League football season does indeed come to an end this weekend. The final Saturday of the regular season is once again highlighted by Lafayette and Lehigh’s yearly clash. While Lehigh has already wrapped up a berth in the FCS , the Mountain Hawks would love nothing more than to capture the outright league title with a win over their arch nemesis in college football’s most played rivalry. Lafayette’s season would at least be salvaged, rather than saved, by sending the Mountains into the playoffs with what would be considered a “very bad loss”. A Lehigh loss would not only be cause for celebration in Easton, but perhaps the Bronx as well. If Fordham can go on the road and take care of Bucknell and the Leopards pull the upset, the Rams would earn a share of their 4^th Patriot League title. The third game of the weekend sees 2015 league champion Colgate play host to Georgetown. The Raiders need a win to finish the 2016 campaign with a .500 record while Georgetown is trying to avoid going winless in the league play. Holy Cross concluded their season last week with an extremely disappointing 54-14 loss to Fordham.

Fordham at Bucknell – 19 Nov. 12:00 P.M. Christy-Mathewson Stadium Lewisburg, PA

(Patriot League Network)

Fordham (7-3, 4-1) will try to make one last positive impression on the FCS playoff committee when they head west to Central Pennsylvania to take on a physically tough Bucknell (4-6, 3-2) team Saturday afternoon. The Rams have made the FCS playoffs three straight years and have an outside shot to make it a fourth with a win. Fordham also has a chance to capture a share of the Patriot League title should Lafayette upset Lehigh. The first order of business is getting by a Bucknell team that nearly upset Lehigh two weeks ago.

The Bison have given Fordham fits the last three years (lost by 2 in ’13, 3 in ’14, 8 in ’15) but haven’t been able to beat the Rams since 2012. The Bison will try to ride their defense to a win while Fordham will look turn to their red-hot quarterback Kevin Anderson and the nation’s leading rusher (1,618) in Chase Edmonds. Bucknell defensive coordinator Matt Borich has had excellent game plans for the potent Fordham offense (498 ypg 1^st in PL, 40.5 ppg 1^st in PL) since taking over the “D” in 2013. The Bison certainly have the defense to once again to cause problems for Fordham. The Orange and Blue’s D ranks 1^stin the Patriot League in yards (352.8) allowed and 2^nd in ppg (22.7) allowed.

One key for Fordham will be neutralizing an extremely talented Bucknell front seven that’s led by DT Abdullah Anderson (10 TFL), DE R.J Sheldon (8 TFL) and Senior LB Ben Richard who ranks 3^rd in the Patriot League in solo tackles. The Fordham offensive line was severely tested by the Colgate defensive front two weeks and it nearly cost them the game. Chase Edmonds was held to 100 yards under his season average in the narrow win over the Raiders. The Bison defense is more than capable of putting forth a similar performance.

If the Bison D is also able to slow down Edmonds, QB Kevin Anderson has proven to be more than capable of putting up big numbers in recent weeks. Anderson was rewarded for his monster game (28-34 426 yards 3 TDs) against Holy Cross at Yankee Stadium last weekend with the Patriot League offensive player of the week. Anderson’s second half performance against Colgate two weeks ago is one of main reasons the Rams still have shot at the playoffs.

The Bison offense must be able to up points in order for Bucknell to pull the upset and rain on Fordham’s playoff parade. Doing that will likely be easier said than done given the Bison’s ups and downs on offense this season. A big reason for the ups and downs has been inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Senior R.J. Nitti has shown flashes of greatness since his return from injury at the end of October but costly interceptions and shaky accuracy has limited his effectiveness. Junior RB Joey DeFloria continues to be the Bison’s most reliable threat on offense. The small, but powerful back went over the 1,000 yard mark in Bucknell’s win over Georgetown last weekend. DeFloria should be able to exploit a Ram rush defense that surrenders 193 yards a game (5^th in PL) so long as Nitti can have some success through the air.

Fordham needs to come out firing from the start in an attempt to get Bucknell down early. The longer the Bison hang around the more dangerous they become. They’ll try to shorten the game on offense as much as possible. Stop DeFloria and force the Bison to throw more than they’d like and Fordham should be able to push their record to 8-3. It likely won’t be easy though.

Of Note: Bucknell leads the all-times series against Fordham 18-13. The two met only four times prior to Fordham joining the Patriot League in 1989. Bucknell has the longest winning streak, 5 games from ’93-‘97 in the series. Fordham would make it 4 straight over the Bison with a win this year.

#16 Lehigh at Lafayette – 19 Nov. 12:30 Fisher Stadium Easton, PA

(Patriot League Network)

For the 152^nd time, but for the first time since 2012, Lafayette (2-8, 1-4) and Lehigh (8-2, 5-0) will battle it out on College Hill in Easton, PA. Lafayette leads the all-time series lead 78-68-5 but the Mountain Hawks are the overwhelming favorite to win this edition of college football’s most played rivalry. Lehigh enters the game with the automatic bid to FCS playoffs already in hand and a share of the Patriot League title wrapped up. A win would give the Brown and White their 3^rd outright league title and 4^th 9+ win season this decade. It would also be their 4^th straight win over the Leopards in Easton. Lehigh is coming off their bye so they should be well rested and fully focused on the task at hand. Even so, Lafayette will come out sky high in an attempt to pull what would be one of the biggest upsets in the long, long history of the rivalry.

It has been a long season and an even longer decade for Lafayette. The Leopards are going to close out their seventh straight losing season and potentially their second consecutive campaign with at least 9 losses. Given Lafayette’s struggles, the status of head coach Frank Tavani remains uncertain as the year comes to an end. Tavani has been at Lafayette or 17 seasons and has an 84-106 career record as the ‘Pards head coach. He inherited a program in disarray in 2000 and four years later went on a run of 3 straight Patriot League titles. Each one of those league titles also resulted in FCS playoff appearances. Lafayette remained a yearly threat for the league title through the end of the 2000’s. Despite a 5-6 regular season record in 2013, the Leopards did win the Patriot League outright which earned them a first round playoff trip to New Hampshire. To this point, that magical run to the league title and a dominant win over Lehigh at Yankee Stadium to close out the 2014 season have been the two bright spots for Lafayette this decade. Beating a Top 20 Lehigh team would certainly be considered another one.

In order for that to happen the Leopard defense must play their best of the game season. They did a good job at times last week limiting Colgate’s explosive offense. However, when it was all said and done, the Raider offense still managed to put up 38 points in the win. Lafayette must be able to get pressure of Lehigh QB Nick Shafnisky in order to disrupt the Lehigh passing the game. The Leopards possess the top pass defense in the league in terms of yards allowed (164) so there should be reason to be optimistic when it comes to their ability to at least slow down Lehigh’s high ranked passing attack (5^th in FCS 329 ypg) . A big reason the Leopards have been stout against the pass is a talented backend of the defense that features Jerry Powe (9.5 TFL, 4 pass break ups) who plays the striker position and senior DB Phillip Parham (6 pass break ups, 2 INTS). Parham, Powe and Co. will be severely tested by the Lehigh wide receiver trio of Troy Pelletier (80 rec 1,047 yards 9 TDs) Gatlin Casey (53 rec 1,019 13 TDs) and Derek Knott (48 rec 603 yards 3 TDs).

Lehigh should be able to exploit the Lafayette rush defense (254 ypg allowed, 7^th in PL) with a healthy a dose of RB Dominic Bragalone (174 carries 991 yards 12 TDs) and Nick Shafnisky (88 carries 289 yards 9 TDs). The Leopard defense surrendered 141 yards and 1 TD to Colgate QB Jake Melville last week. Despite the porous run defense, Lafayette has to feel good if Lehigh is forced to run the ball to win. Reason being, it will help shorten the game which should will the Mountain Hawks possessions. The more times Lehigh’s explosive offense touches the ball the more points they’re going to score.

First and foremost, Lafayette needs to score in order to win. Given the ‘Pards anemic rushing attack, the pressure to put up points will fall squarely on the shoulders of senior QB Drew Reed (63.5 comp %, 203 ypg 10 TDs 9 INTs). As a freshman in 2013, Reed led Lafayette to a 50-28 romp over Lehigh in what was the defacto Patriot League championship game. Reed would love nothing to more than to bookend his career with MVP awards against the Leopard’s rival from Bethlehem. It won’t be easy against a Mountain pass defense (187 ypg allowed) that ranks 2^nd in the Patriot League. Reed will need a big game from Matt Mrazek (64 rec 673 yards 8 TDs) in order to have the type performance needed to win.

All the pressure is on Lehigh to win. A loss to the downtrodden Leopards would put a serious damper on what has been, to this point, an excellent season for the Mountain Hawks as they head into postseason play.

Of Note: Lafayette and Lehigh have met 149 times in the Lehigh Valley. The two times they haven’t were in 2014 when the 150^th meeting was held Yankee Stadium and in 1891 when the two teams made the 60 mile train ride to Wilkes-Barre. That was the third game between the two schools that year. Lafayette and Lehigh met multiple times a year from their inaugural meetings in 1884 through the 1901 season. The only other season they met twice since the turn of the 20^th century came during World War II, 1943, when scheduling was difficult.

Georgetown at Colgate – 19 Nov 1:00 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

(Patriot League Network)

Colgate (4-5, 3-2) looks to wrap up a .500 season against Georgetown (3-7, 0-5) on what figures to be an unseasonably warm late November afternoon in the Chenango Valley. Colgate entered the season as prohibitive favorite to repeat as Patriot League champs but a very tough schedule to open the year did the Raiders no favors. As it, Colgate enters the final game of the year needing one win to finish with an Ivy League like record of 5-5.

Georgetown’s season has taken the opposite path of Colgate’s. The Hoyas started the season 3-0 for the first time since 1999 but head to upstate New York on a 7 game losing streak. Georgetown has come close to notching their 4^th win in recent weeks against Fordham, Holy Cross and Bucknell but an extremely limited offense continues to hold them back. QB Clay Norris (53 comp %, 71 ypg 2 TDs 10 INTs) continues to struggle with consistency in the passing department since taking over for the injured Tim Barnes early in the year. Adding to the Hoyas problems on offense is a rushing attack that has contributed next to nothing in league play (42 ypg, 7^th in PL).

Things don’t figure to get any easier for the Georgetown offense against a Colgate defense that has been extremely stingy when it comes to allowing points since some early season hiccups. The Raider rush defense (73 ypg allowed, 3^rd in FCS) has been among the very best in the country all season. Colgate’s only real weakness on defense this season has stopping teams through the air. Thankfully for the Raiders, Georgetown doesn’t have a passing attack capable of exploiting it. The Hoyas best chance to put up points on offense will be short fields or a big play. They simply lack talent at the skill positions to consistently put together lengthy drives over the course of 60 minutes of play.

If Georgetown is to pull off the upset, their defense will most certainly be the main reason why it happened. The Hoya “D” (21.8 ppg allowed, 1^st in PL) has been excellent all season despite being on the field for large portions of games. Their front seven should create some problems for the explosive Colgate rushing attack (202 ypg). If Georgetown is able to limit Jake Melville’s (122 carries 759 yards 7 TDs) effectiveness running the zone-read and force the senior to throw the ball 30+ times they will give themselves a fighting chance.

Georgetown has not gone winless in Patriot League play since 2009 when they went 0-11 on the season. With Georgetown’s decision to remain a need base program while the other six members in the conference are all full scholarship, things don’t figure to get much easier. The Patriot League would be stronger in many ways with an improved Georgetown program. If scholarships aren’t in the cards, and they don’t appear to be, hopefully the completion of Cooper Field comes to fruition along with other improvements within the program that keeps the Hoyas competitive within the Patriot League moving forward.

Of Note: Colgate holds a commanding 12-1 series advantage over the Hoyas. The two never met prior to Georgetown joining the Patriot League for the 2001 season. Interestingly, Colgate and Georgetown did not meet in 2001 due to a scheduling conflict with revolving around the Hoyas transition from the now defunct MAAC football conference. Georgetown’s only win in the series came in 2011 when they thumped the Raiders on their way to an 8-3.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1117 FCS Selection Process (Mark Wilson)

It is that time of year and as such a re-broadcast from last season is appropriate for this upcoming weekend and Selection Sunday in FCS Football.

In an interview done with Mark Wilson, chair of the FCS Selection Committee on 12/05/2015 by The FCS Wedge we found out directly from him the steps in the process.

There are rules and guidelines (of course) that the committee must abide by. He carefully explained the process and I really think you should listen. It gets sort of old seeing all the conspiracy theories of how or why the committee doesn’t do exactly what you wanted them to do.

If you are one of those conspiracy theorists then please give it a listen and be less dumb on the subject. it will help out society as a whole I think.

If you are sharp enough to know better than all that silly made up subterfuge then good for you but you should still listen just to know a bit more and deliver a resounding verbal/text beat down to those that like to make up their own facts on the matter.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1116 – LISTEN UP! PART 2

As promised, here we have Part 2 of this weeks talk on FCS. This is purely focused on the upcoming playoffs. Who is in, who is probably in, and who is on the very large bubble this year.

I do not envy the Selection Committee this year because this will be a very tough job for them. One key thing that would make this even more difficult are some possible upsets this weekend. For example, if Univ. of Tennessee Martin were to upset the JSU Gamecocks…trouble coming.

Listen in to Lance & Kris and get a feel for how truly murky this is gonna be and also educate yourself on who your team might be competing with for a spot in this beauty pageant.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1116 – LISTEN UP! PART 1

You should notice this podcast is titled Part 1. Part 2 will be coming tomorrow as Lance & Kris were so involved in talking football and playoffs this week they apparently forgot to even glance at a clock. Thing is, it is all very entertaining and a good listen for you.

Looking back at these games this week:
North Dakota 38 Northern Arizona 31
Charleston Southern 48 Liberty 26
James Madison 20 Villanova 7
Wofford 36 Chattanooga 28
Central Arkansas 31 Nicholls State 24

The talk turns to the AGS Poll and even though they didn’t know it at the time the top 10 and the order in the AGS Poll was strikingly similar to the later released Selection Committee top 10.

These games all have a great deal to do with the post season so they are the ones the crew of two take on this go around.

Central Arkansas @ Sam Houston State
New Hampshire @ Maine
North Carolina A&T @ North Carolina Central
South Dakota State @ Northern Iowa
Tennessee Martin @ Jacksonville State
Northern Colorado @ Cal Poly

If you don’t listen to the end this week you will miss a good chuckle. I ended Part 1 here and Part 2 will pick up with the playoff discussions for this final week of the season.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

BIG SOUTH: Week 12 Preview

(6-4) Liberty @ (8-2) Coastal Carolina – Thursday, November 17^th 7:00pm (ESPNews)

Liberty closes out the regular season by paying a Thursday night visit to old Big South rival Coastal Carolina.

With Coastal’s departure for the green-ish pastures of the Sun Belt Conference, this game takes on an unfamiliar vibe. For 13 years, this game has carried major implications in the Big South race so for the event to now be essentially meaningless in itself is a bit of an adjustment for fans of both schools. Liberty currently holds an edge in the all-time series 7-6 and have won the last two but these games have tended to be pretty close. The last three meetings have been decided by a combined seven points with both the 2013 and 2014 games decided by walk-off blocked field goals.

Liberty comes into this game after failing to wrap up the outright Big South title at home against Charleston Southern and must rebound fast on a short week. Against CSU, Liberty’s inexperience on offense was on full display as inconsistency plagued the Flames just as it had in “big” games earlier in the season. Defensively, LU gave up big play after big play but still managed to gather three interceptions on the night. That penchant for takeaways will come in handy this week as Coastal has turned the ball over six times in their last two games (Monmouth & Bryant).

As an important aside, Liberty will travel down to Conway without the services of head coach Turner Gill. Gill will sit out this game as a penalty incurred for an NCAA Level III recruiting violation when an assistant texted a scholarship offer to a recruit before the allowed date. In his place, defensive coordinator Robert Wimberly will assume the head coaching duties for the day. This marks the second time this season that a Big South head coach has had to miss a game for an a Level III violation as CSU’s Jamey Chadwell sat out the Bucknell game for virtually the same reason. *(OPINION: There are only four levels of NCAA violations and a Level III is considered pretty minor. As such, the NCAA needs to re-visit suspension of coaches as a penalty for this as it pertains to football. The current punishment makes sense to a point in a sport like, for example, basketball where a team plays 30 games a year and the absence of the head coach for one contest won’t make that much of a difference in the season. However, it’s inequitable to apply the same penalty to a sport where there are only 11-12 guaranteed games in an entire season. END OF TIRADE)*

What Liberty has to do against Coastal: Execute on offense. That may seem like an obvious oversimplification but lack of offensive execution against good teams has been an ongoing theme this season. Depending on who you ask, this game does or doesn’t have at-large implications for Liberty but, ultimately, none of that really matters. The Flames need to play well because they need to play well.

(8-2) Kennesaw State @ (6-3) Charleston Southern – Saturday, November 19^th 11:45am (ESPN3)

Welcome to the next Big South Championship game. By defeating Liberty last week, Charleston Southern not only kept their own conference title hopes alive, they resuscitated Kennesaw State’s as well. Both teams come into the game with identical 3-1 conference records and the winner of the game will split the conference championship with Liberty.

For KSU, a win would secure a conference title in just their second year of existence – no small thing in itself – and announce their presence on the national stage. While a Kennesaw victory would hand the conference autobid to Liberty, finally getting a quality win over a ranked opponent would also go a very long way toward the Owls’ argument for inclusion in the FCS playoffs as an at-large team.

For CSU, it’s autobid or bust. The Bucs have carried a high ranking all season long but one of their wins came against D2 Kentucky State and one of their three losses was to sub-.500 Gardner-Webb.

Kennesaw comes into this game on an absolute roll. Since losing to Liberty on October 15^th, the Owls have won four straight with an average margin of victory of 49-17. Granted, KSU hasn’t exactly been playing the cream of the crop – those four wins have come against Gardner-Webb, Monmouth, D2 Clark Atlanta and Presbyterian – but a young team winning like that is a team building confidence for the games that matter and, boy, does this one matter. The Owls are playing three quarterbacks that have played and won games for them and human pogo stick receiver Justin Sumpter has returned from injury.

CSU, meanwhile, is also playing three quarterbacks but not necessarily because they can. Last week’s game at Liberty was a great win for the Bucs but it was a physical contest and both teams limped to the locker room at the end. Starting QB Shane Bucenell left the game in the 3^rd quarter with what, through the computer screen, looked like a concussion and at least two linebackers had to be helped off the field. The importance of Bucenell to CSU is obvious; their other two quarterbacks, Robert Mitchell and London Johnson, have performed well in spot duty but have not been particularly effective over extended periods. Further, having a healthy linebacker corps against a triple-option offense is imperative.

What Kennesaw has to do against CSU: Go all out. KSU plays aggressively anyway but this is the week to let Owls’ freak flag fly. If there’s a trick play or nine in head coach Brian Bohannon’s back pocket, this is the week to pull them out.

What CSU has to do against Kennesaw: If Bucenell is playing, play-action all night. The weakness of the KSU defense is their safeties’ inability to adjust with speed and CSU can get them going the wrong way. If another QB is back there for the Bucs, ball control through the ground game. Both Mitchell and Johnson are elusive runners but are not outstanding passers.

(4-6) Monmouth @ (4-6) Gardner-Webb – Saturday, November 19^th 1:30pm (Big South Network)

This game is interesting…well, “interesting” isn’t the word for it. This game is unusual in that both teams played ten games straight leading up to last week and then had November 12^th off so this is more or less like a bowl game for two 4-6 teams that have nothing on the line and which will not impact the conference standings in any way. This is the Why-Are-We-Still-Doing-This? Bowl brought to you by the good people at Prozac and Jim Beam who remind you not to get them in the same room together.

In any event, Gardner-Webb comes into their home finale fresh – kind of fresh anyway – from knocking off 8^th-ranked Charleston Southern on the road. Prior to that, G-W had lost three straight with their previous win being on October 8^th.

Monmouth, on the other hand, has now lost four straight and their previous win was also on October 8^th. This game represents Monmouth’s eighth and, thankfully, final road game of the 2016 season. Gardner-Webb has the obvious motivation of Senior Day here but this game just seems like all kinds of anti-climactic for both teams. G-W got a highlight win in a season full of close disappointments and Monmouth is a team more familiar with airline miles than Jennifer Garner is at this point.

What Monmouth has to do against Gardner-Webb: Score points in the second half. Scoring late wasn’t Monmouth’s problem for much of the season but, in each of their last two games, the Hawks have put 17 points in the first half only to be completely blanked in the latter half.

What Gardner-Webb has to do against Monmouth: Run the ball. In just their last four games alone, Monmouth has given up over 1,200 yards rushing. That just happens to be G-W’s forte so it could be a long day for the visitors and a fun day for the Gardner-Webb seniors.

(2-8) Presbyterian @ (4-5) South Alabama – Saturday, November 19^th, 7:00pm (ESPN3)

This game for Presbyterian was originally scheduled to be played on this day against SEC East-leading Florida. But, as part of their public standoff with LSU over re-scheduling a game lost to Hurricane Matthew, UF bought Presby out and the Blue Hose instead found a matchup with LSU’s castoff opponent, the Jaguars of South Alabama.

Presbyterian comes into this game enduring one of the least productive years in school history. The Blue Hose have been shut out twice, held to a field goal or less five times and held to a single touchdown eight times. PC is mired in a four-game losing streak and none of their eight losses on the year have been remotely close games. This game represents their last chance at displaying something that resembles offensive competency.

For South Alabama, this game was originally going to be a chance to play on the biggest of stages at LSU but is now merely a wide spot in the road between Monroe, Louisiana and Moscow, Idaho. USA has already faced and beaten an FCS team this year (a 41-40 OT win over Nicholls State) so this game doesn’t even help the Jags toward bowl eligibility. Not that bowl eligibility is really a concern, though. Despite massive wins over Mississippi State and a ranked San Diego State team, South Alabama currently sits at 4-5 overall and 1-5 in Sun Belt Conference play. The objective for the home team here is just to play the game and notch the win.

What Presbyterian needs to do against South Alabama: Score nine points. Nine points would get PC to 100 total points on the season and, while that’s a paltry goal, it would spare the current Blue Hose team from being the first squad to score less than a hundred since the Kennedy administration.

Big Sky Review + Power Rankings: Week 11

Another exciting week of Big Sky football is in the books and we’re now just a few short days away from playoff announcements. The playoff race in the Big Sky isn’t exactly the clearest picture. Right now all we can definitely say is that Eastern Washington and North Dakota are the only definite teams in. After that there is a race between Cal Poly, Weber State, Montana, and Northern Colorado. All of those teams are sitting with six wins. The odd team out in that scenario is Montana who have lost to Poly and Northern Colorado. This weekend Northern Colorado and Poly will lock up to see who gets the seventh win.

Weber State can get to seven wins if they beat Idaho State on the road, a task they should be able to complete. Montana can get to seven wins with a win over Montana State in Missoula this weekend. The above scenario will leave the playoff committee weighing Montana, Cal Poly/Northern Colorado, and Weber State and their playoff resumes. Northern Colorado could be odd man out with only six division one wins. The other three teams played scheduled made up of only division one teams.

That’s not to discredit the job that Ernest Collins has done at Northern Colorado, he’s been phenomenal for the Bears thus far. This will once again record another winning season during his tenure. They will also finish with a .500 record or better in conference play for the first time since 2012.

If you’re Montana you need to be hitting the panic button right now. The Griz will finish the season, at best, 4-4 in Big Sky conference play. The loss to Northern Colorado was killer. Despite the Griz’s woes this season their season is still alive. Cal Poly fans have to be sweating a little bit as well, after a loss to Weber State this past weekend. Sunday is going to be heartbreaking for a couple of fan bases in the Big Sky.

In other Big Sky news, North Dakota overcame a 21 point deficit at home to come back and beat Northern Arizona. Deion Harris intercepted a Blake Kemp and took it back 40 yards to seal the win for the Fighting Hawks. The Fighting Hawks will share a piece of the Big Sky championship for the first time since joining the conference.

BYU handily took care of business against Southern Utah in Provo this past weekend. Montana State took down UC-Davis. Eastern Washington continued their march towards the top of the FCS rankings by beating Idaho State. Sacramento State made a play to climb up the power poll and beat Portland State.

Onto rivalry week!

Scores

Montana 25
Northern Colorado 28

Northern Arizona 31
North Dakota 38

Cal Poly 15
Weber State 22

Southern Utah 7
BYU 37

UC Davis 13
Montana 27

Idaho State 17
Eastern Washington 48

Portland State 35
Sacramento State 42

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky player of the week is Sacramento State running back Jordan Robinson. Robinson rushed for 262 yards and four touchdowns in their win vs Portland State.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington. 16/27, 212 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington. 7 catches, 70 yards.
Joe Protheroe, RB, Cal Poly. 18 carries, 62 yards and 1 touchdown.

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Eastern Washington
2. North Dakota
3. Weber State
4. Cal Poly
5. Northern Arizona
6. Northern Colorado
7. Montana
8. Southern Utah
9. Portland State
10. Idaho State
11. Sacramento State
12. Montana State
13. UC Davis

Looking Ahead to Week 12

The Big Sky football week kicks off with Eastern Washington headed to Portland to take on the Vikings. Montana State will travel across the Continental Divide to take on Montana in the Brawl of the Wild. Sacramento State is headed to across the causeway to take on UC-Davis. Weber State will travel up I-15 to take on Idaho State. Southern Utah is going south to take on Northern Arizona. In the night cap Northern Colorado takes on Cal Poly in a game that could have some playoff implication.

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

– Four teams headed into the final week of the regular season fighting for one or two playoff spots. Something will have to give between Montana, Cal Poly, Weber State, and Northern Colorado.

– My prediction for the playoffs: Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Montana, Cal Poly are in.

– Rivalry week in the Big Sky is a week, even if your team isn’t good.

– If you’re North Dakota how do you score a bye week for the last week of the regular season plus that schedule. The Fighting Hawks have basically two weeks to rest up and get ready for a playoff push. Could be a dangerous team with fresh legs heading into the first rounds.

– I’ll go out on a short limb here and say the Cooper Kupp will be the Big Sky MVP this season. His teammate Gage Gabrud will be the runner-up.

The CAA Report Week 11

We have a new show this week. Andrew Lawrence (@TheDailyDelly & www.dailydelly.com) comes on board with Rob Weiss this week to churn out a great CAA podcast for us. They go over last week’s games and look for ward to the final week of the season. Of course that also means we get a good portion of playoff talk about the CAA.

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