Will EKU be a Top 25 team in 2019?

How shared information from EKU appeals to me as a voter:

EKU football 2019

  • Went 7-4 in 2018.
  • Ended 2018 on a 4-game winning streak.
  • Finished the season ranked 35th in the STATS FCS Poll.
  • Is 10-6 in its last 16 games.
  • One of only 27 teams to win seven or more games against Division I teams during the 2018 regular season.
  • 18 starters back in 2019.
  • Newcomers include two FBS offensive linemen and former Oregon State starting quarterback Conor Blount.
  • 48 of the 61 players listed on the season-ending depth chart will be back in 2019.
  • Lost only 18 players who had ever played in a game.
  • Suffered tough losses to FCS teams Marshall and Bowling Green in 2018. Eastern trailed the Thundering Herd by just seven points in the third quarter and led the Falcons until late in the fourth quarter.
  • Defense finished fifth in the nation with 19 interceptions.
  • Second in the OVC in points allowed per game and total defense in 2018.
  • Ranked 26th in the nation in rushing offense.
  • Led the OVC and finished 7th in the nation in time of possession.
  • Leodis Moore III led the OVC and was 9th in the country in INTs per game. He returns for his senior season in 2019.
  • Quarterback Parker McKinney threw for 333 yards in the season finale, becoming the first true freshman in program history to eclipse the 300-yard mark in a game.

First of all, the original instinctual reaction would be to ask, “Who did you play?” A quick look at Massey shows they did beat SEMO, which is a surprise that wasn’t included in the list. For some reason they are rated low in most of the computer rating systems. That’s usually a semi-barometer for a lot of voters.

The home losses  at the hands of Jacksonville State and Murray State didn’t sit well with voters last season, and I probably wouldn’t have had them in my top 30 last season. They would have been right below that, though.

However, the 2019 poll reflects a new season and this statistical outline reflects many strong points. First, they had a true freshman QB finish out the 2018 season with a very solid game.   They do return 48 out of 61 players from last season’s depth chart and 18 starters.  That’s a strong factor in wanting to vote for them.

Another bonus is the mention that they have two FBS OL transfers. Transfers are often an enigma when it comes to what they are going to be worth, but if they are coming from the FBS at the OL position, they’re probably going to be big guys.

EKU’s defense was mostly stout last season and they do well at controlling the time of possession.  I think they would be worth a 20-25 slot as a lot of quality teams had big graduating classes. Having a solid core returning provides tremendous appeal to a preseason poll voter.

EKU 2019 Football Schedule

AGS Poll: Final 2018 Top 25 Results

With the completion of the 2018 FCS season last Saturday comes the final release of the AGS poll this season. Due to the fact that there were 5 rounds of playoff games for voters to mull over we saw quite a bit of churn especially towards the bottom half of the poll from the final regular season poll. Not surprisingly North Dakota State was the unanimous #1 going wire-to-wire this year after winning their 7th FCS title in the last 8 years. They were followed by runner-up Eastern Washington at #2 and semifinalists South Dakota State and Maine at #3 and #4, respectively. UC Davis climbed up a spot to #5 to round out the top 5.

As for teams making big leaps they were headlined by Northern Iowa who jumped up 11 spots to #14 after beating Lamar in the first round and giving UC Davis all they could handle in the second round. Southeast Missouri State climbed up 8 spots to a season high at #15 after upsetting Stony Brook in the first round. Montana State rose 5 spots to #16 after a solid win over Incarnate Word in the first round. Duquesne shot up 11 spots to make their first ever appearance in the AGS top 25 coming in at #21 following their surprising (and convincing) first round win over Towson. Lamar also cracked the AGS top 25 for the first time ever rising 2 spots to come in at #25 after taking UNI to the wire in the first round.

Surprisingly enough there wasn’t much for big drops in this poll. Teams like Weber State, Stony Brook, and Elon took modest 4 spots drops to #7, #19, and #23 after falling a bit short of expectations in the playoffs. Indiana State also dropped 4 spots to #24 and Furman dropped 5 spots and out of the top 25 to #27 despite being (somewhat controversially) left out of the playoff field. The biggest fall of this poll belonged to Towson who plummeted 13 spots all the way out of the top 25 finishing at #26 after a lopsided first round upset loss to Duquesne.

The CAA led the way placing 6 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the Big Sky and MVFC who each had 4 and the Ivy League, OVC, SOCON, and Southland who each had 2 teams in the top 25. In all there were 11 conferences represented in the top 25 and all 14 conferences (including FCS Independents) were represented in the poll including the ORV teams.

Full results below:

Rank Change Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 – North Dakota State Bison 1775 71
2 – Eastern Washington Eagles 1701
3 2 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1620
4 5 Maine Black Bears 1499
5 1 UC Davis Aggies 1462
6 -2 Kennesaw State Owls 1374
7 -4 Weber State Wildcats 1366
8 – Colgate Raiders 1313
9 -2 James Madison Dukes 1142
10 1 Wofford Terriers 1061
11T 1 Nicholls State Colonels 973
11T -1 Princeton Tigers 973
13 1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 802
14 11 Northern Iowa Panthers 705
15 8 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 682
16 5 Montana State Bobcats 598
17 – North Carolina A&T Aggies 555
18 -2 Dartmouth Big Green 538
19 -4 Stony Brook Seawolves 375
20 -2 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 357
21 11 Duquesne Dukes 333
22 2 East Tennessee State Buccaneers 332
23 -4 Elon Phoenix 326
24 -4 Indiana State Sycamores 255
25 2 Lamar Cardinals 249
ORV:
26 -13 Towson Tigers 228
27 -5 Furman Paladins 166
28 – San Diego Toreros 108
29 -3 Incarnate Word Cardinals 96
30T 5 Alcorn State Braves 20
30T -1 Idaho State Bengals 20
32 2 Illinois State Redbirds 18
33 -3 Monmouth Hawks 13
34 4 Harvard Crimson 12
35 -2 Samford Bulldogs 8
36T -5 Rhode Island Rams 7
36T NR Western Illinois Leathernecks 7
38 -2 Chattanooga Mocs 3
39 NR Montana Grizzlies 2
40 NR North Dakota Fighting Hawks 1

Dropped out of the poll:
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Join the discussion here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?221036-AGS-Poll-Results-FINAL-POLL-2018-SEASON

The FCS Wedge – 2019-0102 – Wk. 17 National Championship Preview

Topic 1: Games

  • North Dakota State vs. Eastern Washington (finally)

Topic 2:  Awards

  • Player – Offense, Defense
  • Coach

Topic 3: Best sub .500 team

  • Cal Poly
  • The Citadel
  • New Hampshire

These are teams that played very strong schedules and could be on the cusp of having very good season next year.

This is the final show of the season and we thank you all for listening in and I personally thank Lance s& Kris for such great work again this year.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1218 – Wk16 (Rd.4) REVIEW

Topic 1 Games

  • North Dakota State 44 South Dakota State 21
  • Eastern Washington 50 Maine 19

Topic 2 What we learned

  • Weaker conferences like the NEC, Big South, and Patriot are still quite a ways behind the power conferences.
  • It’s really hard to reach the Championship Game.
  • Home field matters.

Topic 3:

  • Are the playoffs only about crowning a champion?
  • Has the FCS become boring?
  • Are FCS teams less talented today than a decade ago?

This is the last show until after the Christmas break when we will come back right after New Year to breakdown the title game as well as what our thoughts from this terrific season of FCS Football.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC in the Semifinals – In Review

MVFC LogoThe Scores

(for both games, not just MVFC)

South Dakota State – 21
North Dakota State – 44

Maine – 19
Eastern Washington – 50

South Dakota State at North Dakota State

The Not-Dakota-Marker game started off this time around as a defensive battle, with a couple of 3-and-outs to start the game. The Bison would break the stalemate, using a 32-yard pass from QB Easton Stick to RB Seth Wilson to get down close to the end zone and a 5-yard run from Stick in for the TD. SDSU responded on their next drive, going to RB Pierre Strong Jr. for a couple of big runs including a 30-yard weaving TD run to tie things up. The drive wasn’t without issue for the Jackrabbits, as QB Taryn Christion was hit while going to the ground and was down for a few minutes. Despite only being out for one play, he seemed somewhat shaken up, and combined with a few other hits throughout the rest of the game, looked like it had a negative affect on his playing ability. Early in the 2nd quarter, NDSU got down to the 30 before having to go for a FG, but the kick pulled wide right and the score remained tied. Late in the first half, NDSU pulled ahead again after a 4-play drive involving a couple of 15-yard passes and a 34-yard run by QB Stick straight up the middle (including a RB-style stiff-arm of an SDSU defender) and into the end zone. This made the score 14-7, which would hold through halftime.

Coming out of break, NDSU started with the ball and on the first play from scrimmage RB Wilson took it 78 yards before being pulled down from behind by SDSU CB Marshon Harris at the 3. After being assessed a penalty for the horse-collar tackle, RB Bruce Anderson was able to run it the final yard into the end zone, putting the Bison ahead 21-7. SDSU’s next drive was highlighted by a big 47-yard pass to WR Isaiah Hill and capped off by an 8-yard pass to TE Blake Kunz between a couple of NDSU defenders, making it a 1-score game again. The Bison came right back with a methodical drive covering 75 yards in 10 plays and finding the end zone again on a 14-yard pass to RB Bruce Anderson. SDSU was held to a 3-and-out on their next drive and NDSU blew things open with a 41-yard TD run by RB Anderson, breaking a couple of tackles and scampering down the sideline into the end zone, making it 35-14. The Jackrabbits weren’t going to go away quietly though, as QB Christion launched a perfectly-placed 52-yard TD strike to WR Cade Johnson for a TD to pull within 14 near the end of the 3rd quarter. Into the 4th quarter though, NDSU executed one of their slow, defense-killing drives that they’re known for, eating up just over 9 minutes and 61 yards in 15 plays and ending with a 32-yard FG. SDSU wasn’t able to get anything going on their next drive, turning the ball over on downs, and NDSU didn’t even need 90 seconds to score again, with QB Stick running 28-yard for a TD. The XP attempt failed, making it 44-21. SDSU was able to get down to the NDSU 39 yard line on what would be their final drive, before SS Robbie Grimsley intercepted the ball at the 5 and took it back out to the 38. NDSU RB Adam Cofield had a 51-yard run after what appeared to be an initial stop that got the Bison down to the SDSU 6 yard line. With slightly over a minute left in the game, up by 23, and with SDSU only having 1 time out left, they probably could have gotten one final TD, but instead chose to kneel a couple of times, running out the clock, and securing their spot in the FCS championship game for the 7th time in the last 8 years. Despite the decisive win, NDSU was actually penalized 9 times in the game for 70 yards (much of it in the first half), which was more penalties than they’d had in any game this season.

SDSU QB Taryn Christion threw for 180 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception while running for 32 yards. RB Pierre Strong was the vast majority of the ground game, picking up 135 yards and 1 TD. WR Cade Johnson had 3 catches for 89 yards and 1 TD. LB Christian Rozeboom led the Jackrabbits with 11 tackles (8 solo) including 1 for loss and a forced fumble (was recovered by NDSU though). Safety Joshua Manchigiah picked up 10 tackles (6 solo), and punter Brady Hale averaged 40 yards on 6 punts with 2 inside the 20.

NDSU QB Easton Stick passed for 169 yards and 1 TD and ran for 147 yards and 3 TDs. His combined 316 yards of offense is his best this season (possibly career best, I’m not digging that far back in the archives though). He’s had more combined TDs this season, but the 3 rushing TDs appear to be a career best for him as well. RB Seth Wilson picked up 86 yard and RB Bruce Anderson had 79 and 2 TDs on the ground with 1 receiving TD. WR Darrius Shepherd led the Bison with 4 catches for 71 yards. Punter Garrett Wegner had only 2 punts in the game, but averaged 47.5 yards on them with a long of 54. On defense, LB Dan Marlette led the team with 8 tackles (5 solo) including 1 for loss and a pass breakup. DE Derrek Tuszka picked up a sack among his 4 tackles and SS Robbie Grimsley had the essentially game-sealing interception returned 33 yards.

South Dakota State ends their season at 10-3 overall, with 2 of those losses against NDSU. Because we’re saying goodbye to another MVFC team, we also say goodbye to the senior Jackrabbits. These names include QB Taryn Christion, RB Isaac Wallace, O-linemen Sepestiano Pupungatoa and Tyler Weir, Punter Brady Hale, LBs Dalton Cox and Eric Kleinschmit, and DBs Jordan Brown, Brandon Snyder, and Makiah Slade.

North Dakota State improves to 14-0 and get a 3-week break before facing off against Eastern Washington on January 5th in Frisco, TX (Fargo South) for the FCS Championship Game.

How’d I Do?

I predicted a 36-28 NDSU win. It was a 44-21 NDSU win. Christion seemed to struggle quite a bit at times after that rough hit fairly early in the game. He made some excellent passes at times, but also missed on some that would have been fairly routine for him usually. Otherwise I think the margin would have been closer to what I thought.

The FCS Championship Game

There’s no “next weekend” because the last two teams have a bit of a holiday break. The championship game is on Saturday, January 5th at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX. With Eastern Washington rolling over Maine by 31 points, they get to face off against the Bison. The two teams have a short but interesting history against each other, which I’ll review, as well as previewing the championship game, once we get a bit closer to kickoff for that game.

MVFC in the Semifinals – Preview

MVFC LogoHere we are…the granddaddy of them all…this one’s for all the marbles…the…wait…this isn’t the championship game? Ok, fine…the “unofficial” MVFC Championship Game is this weekend with a rematch of a game that happened about 2 ½ months ago when the Jackrabbits visited Fargo to compete for the Dakota Marker trophy. This time around, it’s the playoffs, and while the Dakota Marker isn’t up for grabs this time, a spot in the FCS championship game is.

Couple of quick things:

  • I’ll be using full-season stats, because most of the games will not be in-conference matchups.
  • Rankings of stat categories will be ranking within the entire FCS (out of 124 teams)
  • I will usually round to the nearest yard for things like yards per game

All times are listed as Central time zone and the rank numbers are now going to be based on the seed numbers as assigned by the playoff committee. With only two games total this weekend, here’s both of them along with starting times. Both games will be shown on ESPN2.

Fri 12/14 at 7 PM – #5 South Dakota State at #1 North Dakota State
Sat 12/15 at 1 PM – #7 Maine at #3 Eastern Washington

# 5 South Dakota State at #1 North Dakota State

The Series: Last weekend, SDSU beat Kennesaw State in their first ever matchup. Also, NDSU beat Colgate in their first ever matchup. This weekend is a completely different story, as these two teams have spent much of their histories in the same conference including 83 years together in the old North Central Conference…how’s that for conference stability. They moved up to DI together in mid-2000’s, and since, have become two of the most dominant teams in the FCS and both members of the MVFC. The Jackrabbits and Bison have faced off 108 times going back to 1903, with NDSU holding a 61-42-5 series record, and they’ve played at least once every year since 1946. Going back to the start of the 2016 season, NDSU has lost a total of 3 games…2 were against SDSU. In the last 7 years (going back to the start of 2012) this game will be the 11th meeting…an average of 1.57 games per season…including 3 playoff meetings. Oddly enough, they’ve ended up playing each other in the playoffs every other year: 2012, 2014, 2016, and now 2018. So, to say that these two schools/teams/fanbases are already familiar with each other…that’d be one hell of an understatement.

SDSU’s Record: The Jackrabbits went 8-2 overall with a 6-2 conference record in the regular season. Their opener at FBS Iowa State was cancelled due to weather. They then hosted Montana State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, winning both games handily, by 31 and 84 points, respectively. In the MVFC, they lost at NDSU by 4, beat Indiana State by 3 in OT and then defeated Youngstown State before dropping a defensive battle to UNI. They followed that up with wins over Illinois State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, and South Dakota. As a seeded team, they had the first round of the playoffs off, crushed Duquesne 51-6 two weeks ago in a snowstorm, and then handed #4 seed Kennesaw State a 10-point loss at KSU in the rain.

NDSU’s Record: The Bison are undefeated this season, going 11-0 overall with an 8-0 conference record in the regular season. They decimated Cal Poly, North Alabama, and Delaware to start their season. They then went through the MVFC portion of the season with a 4-point win over SDSU and wins over UNI, WIU, ILSU, USD, then a surprisingly close game against YSU before stomping all over MSU and SIU. As the #1 seed, they also had a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They hosted Montana State two weeks ago, dropping a 42-point victory on the Big Sky team, then invited Colgate to town for some Bison hospitality, where they were, by all accounts, extremely friendly to any visiting fans, and the exact opposite to the team during the game, shutting out the #8 seeded Raiders 35-0.

About South Dakota State: I think most of this is old news by now, but I’ll recap it anyway. SDSU has the #7 offense in the FCS, averaging 491 ypg with 44.3 ppg (3rd). Their ground game is 17th (235 ypg) and the passing game is 30th (256 ypg), so they’re pretty well balanced. QB Taryn Christion finished 7th in Walter Payton Award voting, had 237 ypg and 30 TDs passing with 7 interceptions and ran for 25 ypg with 6 TDs. Christion is also 5th in the FCS for passing efficiency. Primary receiving targets are WRs Cade Johnson (104 ypg with 16 TDs) and Adam Anderson (59 ypg with 7 TDs). On the ground, RB Pierre Strong and Mikey Daniel have been the big playmakers after early-season starters Isaac Wallace and CJ Wilson were forced to miss large portions of the season with injury. Wilson did come back and play sparingly against KSU last weekend, but in the last 5 games that the Jackrabbits have played, Strong is averaging 156 ypg and has 10 TDs and Daniel has 64 ypg. PK Chase Vinatieri has missed a few FGs this season, going 14 of 21, but has the leg to have hit a 57-yarder in UNI’s dome earlier this season. Their punter, Brady Hale, averages 42.8 yards per kick on 50 punts with 7 of over 50 and 22 inside the 20-yard-line. QB Christion, WR Johnson, and O-Lineman Tiano Pupungatoa were all named first-team All-MVFC offensive players.

SDSU is 46th in total defense, giving up 367 ypg, but 13th in scoring defense, only allowing 20.5 ppg. They’re 38th against the pass (200 ypg) and 56th against the run (167 ypg). LB Christian Rozeboom leads the team with 7.83 tackles per game, has 9.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. DB Jordan Brown had 2.33 tackles per game, but also had 3 interceptions and 11 passes defended as well as a forced fumble. DE Ryan Earith has 9 tackles for loss this season including 5 sacks and 9 QB hurries. DT Krockett Krolikowski has been very good this year, but hasn’t played since their first playoff game against Duquesne, due to injury, and it sounds like he’s probably out for this game as well. LB Rozeboom and DB Brown were both first-team All-MVFC players.

About North Dakota State: The Bison offense sits at #18 in the FCS for yardage (460 ypg) and 6th in scoring (41.5 ppg). Their offense is heavily reliant on the run game putting up 274 ypg (9th) and really only use passing selectively to open up an opposing defense or take advantage of mismatches. They’re 87th in the FCS in terms of raw yardage (186 ypg) through the air, but are 3rd in passing efficiency with 168.14 rating. Like I’ve mentioned frequently before, they don’t pass a ton, but when they do, they are highly effective at it. The leader on that side of the ball is Walter Payton Award Finalist and MVFC Offensive Player of the Year QB Easton Stick. Stick passes for 184 ypg with 25 TDs and only 5 interceptions and runs for 32 ypg with 11 TDs. He’s also been sacked only 11 times through 13 games this season. He’s obviously a great player, but a lot of credit for that can also go to their stellar offensive line, highlighted by Rimington Award (top center in the FCS) winner Tanner Volson as well as All-MVFC first-teamer Zack Johnson. NDSU has a handful of very good RBs who all do a very good job including Bruce Anderson (77 ypg w/ 7 TDs), Lance Dunn (68 ypg w/ 12 TDs), and Ty Brooks (55 ypg w/ 5 TDs). When Stick does pass, it’s often to WR Darrius Shepherd (also a very good kick returner…4th in the FCS) who had 67 ypg and 7 TDs, or if in shorter down situations, TE Ben Ellefson is often relied upon with 8 receiving TDs. Punter Garret Wegner is solid with an average of 43.1 yards per punt on 54 kicks with a long of 61 and 25 dropped within the red zone.

On defense, NDSU has been (for quite a while) and continues to be one of the the most suffocating squads in college football outside of the FBS Top 25. They give up 279 ypg (4th) and a stingy 11.1 ppg (2nd). They’re 12th in rushing defense allowing 107 ypg, and 10th in pass defense giving up 172 ypg. They have a number of excellent defensive players, including LB Jabril Cox who finished 4th in Buck Buchanan Award voting, has 6.46 tackles per game including 9.5 for loss, 4 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 7 passes defended. SS Robbie Grimsley averages 5.92 tackles per game, and has 5 interceptions and 5 pass breakups. DE Greg Menard has 8 sacks and 8 QB hurries. Grimsley finished 9th in Buchanan award voting, and all three players are first-team All-MVFC.

My Take: This weekend’s game has taken on an additional “wrinkle” with the contract situations for both coaches. NDSU HC Chris Klieman has already been named the new HC for FBS Kansas State, but plans to continue coaching NDSU until they are done with the playoffs. Also, current DC Matt Entz has already been named the new HC. SDSU HC John Stiegelmeier meanwhile, has just signed a 5-year contract extension through 2023 to stay with SDSU. It remains to be seen how the knowledge of Klieman leaving NDSU will affect how the Bison play, but if I had to put money on any team being able to handle late-stage playoff games with coaching changes…it’d be NDSU. It could be that the distraction of the situation and playing a team they’re so familiar with might shift things a bit one direction…then again, maybe the NDSU players will want to send their coach off with a big win and they’ll really step up even more than they have been. SDSU over the last few years has really been one of maybe a couple of teams able to seriously challenge NDSU on any regular basis and it feels like they were really built to beat the Bison. They beat a lot of other teams too, of course, but they’re set up well to compete favorably with their northern neighbors. Still, NDSU has the advantage in this game, being in the Fargodome and because they always seem to have another gear when it gets to the playoffs. For SDSU to win this, they’re going to have to play probably their best game of the season and not make any dumb mistakes. They’ll need to take advantage of any opportunities that present themselves and not make any trips to the red zone that end up with 0 points. I hope it’s a close exciting game, but my guess on this one is a 36-28 NDSU victory.

For more discussion and analysis, here’s the thread on AnyGivenSaturday.com for this game: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?219772-Semifinal-5-South-Dakota-State-1-North-Dakota-State

#7 Maine at #3 Eastern Washington

Yeah, I know…not MVFC teams, but I just wanted to touch on this one a bit, since whoever wins this will take on the winner of SDSU @ NDSU in the championship game. Eastern Washington has a high-powered offense scoring over 44 ppg this season and highlighted by QB Eric Barriere (173 ypg and 17 TDs passing, with 50 ypg and 7 TDs rushing) and RB Sam McPherson (99 ypg w/ 12 TDs). Maine got to this point via their #1 ranked run defense. They put quite a bit of pressure on opposing QBs, sitting at #2 in sacks and include LBs Sterling Sheffield (who finished 13th in Buck Buchanan Award voting) and Deshawn Stevens, and DL Kayon Whitaker, who all have over 9 sacks this season. RB Ramon Jefferson is a threat on the ground with 88.36 ypg and 8 TDs.

Personally, I think it’d be fun to see Maine in the championship game, since it’s been 5 years since they even appeared in the playoffs and I don’t think they’ve ever been in the championship game before, but many signs point to Eastern Washington having the overall advantage in this game. There are a couple of things that Maine does have going for them though…of Eastern Washington’s two losses this year, the only one that was against an FCS team was against Weber State, who, like Maine, has a high-quality defense, and who was beaten by Maine just last weekend. Also, Maine was picked in the preseason to finish 8th out of 12 in the CAA this year, so to be the #7 seed and this deep into the playoffs…they kinda have nothing to lose.

I’ll admit, this pick is definitely the less likely result, but what I’m hoping to see is a 21-17 Maine victory.

For more discussion and analysis, here’s the AGS thread for this game: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?219803-7-Maine-at-3-Eastern-Washington

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1211 – RD4 PREVIEW

Topic 1: preview of the final four

South Dakota State @ North Dakota State

Maine @ Eastern Washington (rare morning start in Cheney)

Topic 2: national awards discussion

Topic 3: pick the games

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1211 – RD3 REVIEW

TOPIC 1: The Games

Maine 23 Weber State 18

Eastern Washington 34 UC Davis 29

South Dakota State 27 Kennesaw State 17

North Dakota State 35 Colgate 0

Topic 2 Coaches & Players Being Rewarded

Chris Klieman hired at Kansas State

Josh Davis runs away with the Jerry Rice Award

Topic 3: What did we learn?

Joe Harasymiak might have to be the favorite for Coach of the Year.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC in the Quarterfinals – In Review

MVFC LogoThe Scores

Colgate – 0
North Dakota State – 35

South Dakota State – 27
Kennesaw State – 17

#8 Colgate at #1 North Dakota State

Colgate’s struggles in this game started early, with the Bison taking their first possession 96 yards in 4 plays with RB Ty Brooks running it into the end zone from 26 yards out for an early NDSU lead. The solid Colgate defense did step things up after that drive, holding NDSU to a total of 33 yards and 1 first down in the remainder of the first quarter. It wouldn’t be until the latter half of the 2nd quarter when the Bison would reach the end zone again, putting together a more “typical” NDSU drive, covering 65 yards in 10 plays and ending with a 2-yard play-action pass to the wide open TE Ben Ellefson. The rest of the half saw little offensive production and North Dakota State would take the 14-0 lead into halftime.

In the second half, the Bison started with the ball and drove down the field, using a 24-yard pass to WR Dallas Freeman to get a good ways into Colgate territory before picking up their third TD on a 10-yard “frozen rope” to WR Darrius Shepherd. The NDSU defense held the Raiders to a 3-and-out and took only 4 plays on their next drive to go ahead by 28 points when RB Bruce Anderson took a handoff straight through the line and 42 yards into the end zone. Colgate’s best chance at points came and went on their next drive, putting together a couple of first downs and getting just outside the NDSU red zone before QB Grant Breneman’s pass was intercepted by FS James Hendricks late in the 3rd quarter. Midway through the 4th, NDSU WR Phoenix Sproles redeemed himself (after dropping what would have been a long TD pass in the 3rd) with a 6-yard TD catch to put the Bison up 35-0 with less than 5 minutes left. The Raiders missed a few passes and NDSU was able to run out the clock to take the 35-0 victory.

Colgate QB Grant Breneman finished with 68 passing yards and 1 interception. TB James Holland Jr. led the Raiders in ground yards with 65. They had a couple of receivers pick up 20-21 yard catches (WRs Owen Rockett and Thomas Ives). LB T.J. Holl finished with 16 tackles (8 solo) with 3 for loss and DB Alec Wisniewski had 12 (7 solo). DT Nick Wheeler picked up 3 tackles including a sack. Punter Josh Cerra kicked 8 punts for an average of 42.6 yards per kick with a long of 57.

NDSU QB Easton Stick had 205 yards and 3 TDs through the air. No receivers got over 50 yards, but RB Bruce Anderson and WR Dallas Freeman came close with 49 yards each. WRs Darrius Shepherd and Phoenix Sproles, and TE Ben Ellefson each had TD receptions. RB Anderson also led the Bison in rushing with 124 yards and 1 TD and RB Ty Brooks also picked up a rushing TD along with his 65 yards. LB Jabril Cox had 6 tackles (4 solo) with 1 for loss. FS James Hendricks had 4 tackles, and interception and 2 pass breakups, and DE Derrek Tuszka led the team with 2.5 sacks out of his 4 tackles.

Colgate finishes their season at 10-2 overall. North Dakota State is now 13-0 and advances to the semifinals round next weekend where they will take on longtime conference rival South Dakota State.

#5 South Dakota State at #4 Kennesaw State

By now, the Jackrabbits are getting pretty used to playing in adverse conditions…taking out Duquesne in a snowstorm in the previous round and this last weekend, heading down to Kennesaw, GA to play the Owls in the rain. SDSU started with the ball, but after a couple of solid runs, QB Taryn Christion threw an interception to a wide-open KSU DB Cincere Mason. The Owls would get down to the SDSU 35, but only got 3 yards on a 4th and 5 to turn the ball over on downs. A few drives later, with KSU QB Chandler Burks running the ball, SDSU forced the ball out and it was recovered by LB Eric Kleinschmit. The Jackrabbits were able to move the ball down to the KSU 7 yard line before settling for a 24-yard FG by PK Chase Vinatieri. On KSU’s next drive, they were able to move pretty effectively with a couple of good runs and helped by a couple of SDSU penalties and get down to SDSU’s 2, but like the Jackrabbits, would come away with only 3 on a 20-yard FG from PK Justin Thompson to tie things up at 3. The ensuing kickoff was returned 48 yards by WR Cade Johnson, giving the Jackrabbits great field position with which to start their drive. That drive progressed into the 2nd quarter and finished with a 5-yard TD pass to WR Adam Anderson, giving SDSU a 10-3 lead. A couple of plays into KSU’s next drive, QB Chandler Burks, who had been the key to the Owls’ offense for much of the season, went out with a wrist injury that appeared to have occurred a play or two earlier. With backup QB David Daniel taking the reins, KSU was able to get just into SDSU’s red zone, but turned it over on downs with an incomplete pass on 4th and 14. Taking over at their own 32, South Dakota State put together a solid drive of 9 plays getting them into the end zone on a 9-yard run by RB Pierre Strong Jr. A total of 8 yards of offense in the final 3 drives of the half enabled SDSU to take their 17-3 lead into the locker room for halftime.

Most of the 3rd quarter would go past without points on either side, but eventually a pass to TE Kallen Hart for 40 yards got SDSU in the red zone and the kicker Vinatieri was able to kick a 23-yard FG to go up 20-3. Early in the 4th, however, KSU started to make things a game, with QB David Daniel completing some solid passes including a 19-yard under-pressure TD lob to RB Jake McKenzie, to pull within 10. SDSU got nowhere with their next drive, and KSU was able to drive 91 yards in 9 plays, finishing with a 1-yard TD run by QB Daniel, making it a 3-point game. The Jackrabbits were able to respond, however, picking up a huge 33-yard gain on a pass on 3rd and 12, continuing to move the ball and then QB Taryn Christion finding a 15-yard path through the middle of the line to the end zone and going back up by 10, 27-17. With time running out, Kennesaw State was able to pick up a couple of first downs, but a pass tipped up by SDSU DB Jordan Brown was caught by a diving Logan Backhaus (SDSU LB) for an interception that would essentially seal the victory. The Jackrabbits were able to kneel the ball and run out the remaining 89 seconds for the 27-17 win.

SDSU QB Taryn Christion finished the game with 147 yards and 1 TD through the air with 1 interception, and picked up 37 yards and 1 TD on the ground. RB Pierre Strong Jr. had a solid game, rushing for 112 yards and 1 TD. WR Cade Johnson led the team with 4 catches for 72 yards, and WR Adam Anderson had 1 catch that was a 5-yard TD. LB Christian Rozeboom topped the tackles list with 14 (10 solo) including 3 tackles for loss and 1 forced fumble. LB Logan Backhaus had 6 tackles and the game-clinching interception. LB Eric Kleinschmit had 4 tackles to go along with a forced fumble and recovery, and DT Xavier Ward was also credited with a forced fumble. Punter Brady Hale averaged 43.2 yards on 4 punts with 2 inside the 20. WR Johnson also had 3 kickoff returns for 103 yards and PK Chase Vinatieri hit FGs from 24 and 23 yards out.

KSU QB Chandler Burks had 12 yards on 1 pass and 34 rushing yards before going out with his injury. Backup QB David Daniel finished the game with 94 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT through the air, and 65 yards and 1 TD on the ground. RB Darnell Holland led the team in rushing yards with 92, and RB Jake McKenzie had 73 yards rushing and 31 yards and 1 TD on 2 catches receiving. LB Anthony Gore Jr. led the Owls with 7 solo tackles including 2 for loss. LB Bryson Armstrong had 5 tackles including a sack, and DB Cincere Mason picked up 3 and an interception.

Kennesaw State ends their 2018 season at 11-2, which is very impressive considering this was only their 4th season of football. South Dakota State moves up to 10-2 overall and will head back up to Fargo for yet another game against the Bison…their 11th meeting over 7 seasons and 109th all-time.

How’d I Do?

Colgate @ North Dakota State – I predicted a 31-12 NDSU win. It was 35-0 NDSU. Colgate’s defense did fairly well against a very good offense, but their offense just wasn’t able to make anything happen.

South Dakota State @ Kennesaw State – My prediction was 38-32 for SDSU. It was 27-17 SDSU. Rain hindered things somewhat on both sides of the ball, but the margin wasn’t far off from what I figured it’d be.

Next Weekend

On to the Semifinals round, where there’s only two games going on, with the winners facing off a few weeks further down the road in Frisco, TX for the FCS championship. Because one side of the bracket is now the last two MVFC teams facing each other, I’ll only have one game to preview and review in the final two rounds. Regardless of how the games play out, there will be a MVFC team in the championship game for the 8th year in a row.

Coming up this next weekend is:

#5 South Dakota State at #1 North Dakota State at 7 PM on ESPN2

#7 Maine (CAA) at #3 Eastern Washington (Big Sky) at 1 PM on ESPN2

One other interesting point is that of the final four teams still playing, the team that is located the furthest south is South Dakota State in Brookings, SD. No matter who makes it through, it’ll be a long road down to Frisco, TX (although NDSU fans should be pretty familiar with the trip by now).

Patriot League Quarterfinal Playoff Preview: #8 Colgate at #1 North Dakota State

#8 Colgate (10-1) at #1 North Dakota State (12-0) 12 P.M. ET

Location: Fargo, ND

Stadium: Fargo Dome (19,000)

Live TV/Streaming: ESPN/ESPN3

What’s At Stake: A spot in the FCS Semifinals against the winner of Kennesaw State-South Dakota State.

Series History: First Ever Meeting

Playoff History:

Colgate – 11th Appearance, 7-10 record, 2003 National Runner-Up

North Dakota State – 9th Appearance, 29-2, National Champions 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 & 2017

Season Recap 

Colgate – The Raiders entered the season as the preseason favorite in the Patriot League and easily lived up to expectations on their way to a perfect 6-0 mark in league play and a 9-1 overall record. Colgate played a 10 game regular season schedule due to a mid-September roadie against Furman being cancelled (Hurricane Florence). The strength of this Colgate team is unquestionably their defense (7.0 ppg allowed) which set numerous league records in 2018. As a result of Colgate’s historically great defense this season, the “O” has been a little underappreciated despite being quite productive (29.4 ppg). QB Grant Breneman and 5th year senior RB James Holland form one of the top backfields in FCS that no one knows about. The Raiders advanced to the quarterfinals to face the Bison via a thrilling 23-20 win over James Madison. Chris Puzzi’s 39 yard FG as time expired punched the Raiders ticket to Fargo. The Raiders stout defense forced Duke’s quarterback Ben DiNucci into tossing 5 interceptions. However, the ‘Gate offense managed just 3 points off those extra possessions. Sophomore quarterback Grant Breneman (14/23 190 yards 1 TD) had a bit of an up and down day in his return from a shoulder injury.

North Dakota State – To call North Dakota State the Alabama of FCS would be to discredit the Bison’s greatness this decade. While Nick Saban has amassed 5 national titles (’09, ’11, ’12, ’15, ’17) over the course of the last 10 seasons, the Bison have 6 with two different coaches (Bohl ’11, ’12, ’13; Klieman ’14, ’15, ’17) in that same time frame. The 2018 edition of the Bison could end up giving Bohl’s 2013 a team a run for their money in terms of being the best ever during the FCS era. The Bison have outscored their opposition this season by an average of 42 to 12.  The offense is led by a pair of seniors, Walter Payton Award Finalist quarterback Easton Stick (2,180 yards 22 TD 5 INT, 405 yards rushing 11 TD) and running back Lance Dunn (806 yards 12 TD). Stick will be joining current former Bison quarterback Carson Wentz in the NFL next year. This year’s defense certainly measures up to some of the best ever in Fargo. The unit is led by Missouri Valley Football Conference POY Jabril Cox (46 solo tackles, 8.5 TFL). The sophomore LB has two fellow 1st Team All-MVFC selections joining him on defense; DE Greg Menard (7.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL) and SS Robbie Grimsley (39 solo tackles, 5 INT). The Bison used their patented physical rushing attack (407 yards) and smothering defense (12 first downs allowed) to easily defeat Montana State in last week’s 2nd Round game.

ndsu2
HeroSports

Colgate Offense vs North Dakota State Defense

Colgate’s offense will be facing their most difficult challenge of the season this weekend. The Raiders not only have to contend with the fierce Bison defense, they also must maintain their composure in the deafening Fargo Dome. James Madison’s personnel on “D” is definitely comparable to that of North Dakota State’s so Colgate won’t be overwhelmed from a physical standpoint. However, there isn’t a defense in the FCS that is more disciplined than the Bison’s unit. On the rare occasion NDSU is out of position Breneman and the Raider offense must make them pay. Breneman missed on two or three easy throws last week that likely would have resulted in touchdowns. Those missed opportunities can’t happen against the Bison. Colgate WR Owen Rockett (104 yards 1 TD vs JMU) has the quickness to get open against one of the top secondaries in FCS. North Dakota State figures to focus on Colgate RB James Holland (89 yards 1 TD vs JMU) and force Breneman to work from the pocket. The Raiders offensive line must be able open up enough running lanes that allow Holland to effectively run the ball. If the R-Sr. can grind out meaningful yards, the Colgate offense will be productive overall. The Raider “O” likely needs to manufacture at least 20 points to have any chance. The Bison defense surrendered more than 17 points once all season; 31 against Northern Iowa.

colgate1
YouTube/Grant Breneman

North Dakota State runs the traditional 4-3 defense to perfection. The four starters (DE Menard, DT Karcz, NG Steidl, DE Butler) along the defensive front accounted for a staggering 28.5 TFL. It’s not a very large defensive line (avg 6’3 260) but they’re extremely physical and disciplined. The Bison also go 2 or 3 deep at each position in the trenches. Derek Tuszka, Spencer Waege (MVFC Newcomer of the Year) and Stanley Jones are significant rotation players. The linebacker group is excellent. Jabril Cox is considered the most physically gifted while seniors Dan Marlette and Levi Jordheim provide tremendous experience and leadership. The secondary amassed an absurd 15 interceptions during the course of the season. The cornerback back duo of Marquise Bridges and Jalen Allison match up favorably against the Raiders solid, but not overly explosive receivers. Grant Breneman’s acute decision making will be put the test against this ball hawking unit. He’ll need to use his legs to extend plays in order to give his receivers time to get open. The Bison secondary is too good to get beat by a single read passing attack.

ndsu3
HeroSports/Jabril Cox

North Dakota State Offense vs Colgate Defense

It’s hard to find an offense in FCS that executes at a higher level than the Bison’s. North Dakota State deploys an offensive style that most would consider “old school” in today’s college football landscape. The Bison control the line scrimmage with a FBS caliber line that allows their stable of running backs (Dunn, Anderson, Brooks, Cofield) a plethora of running lanes. Once the ground attack is established, Easton Stick starts to decimate defenses with his precision passing. Stick is by no means a dink and dunker. The future pro has the ability to put pressure on all three levels of the defense with his talented arm. WR Darrius Shepherd (51 rec 846 yards 6 TD) is Stick’s favorite target while TE Ben Ellefson, 7 touchdowns on 12 receptions, is his ultimate “hidden” red zone weapon. Colgate’s stout defense will give up yards on the ground but they absolutely can’t surrender big pass plays. Everything the Bison get on offense must be earned through blood sweat and tears.

NCAA Football: DI Football Championship
GoBison.com/Easton Stick

Colgate’s last two opponents (Army & JMU) should have prepared the Raider defense for the type of physicality they’re about to face in the Fargo Dome. Prior to Colgate’s trip to West Point in mid-November, the Raiders statistically great “D” (7 ppg allowed, 5 shutouts) feasted on varying degrees of poor competition. James Madison did have success running the ball (200 yards, 5.1 ypg) against a Colgate defensive front that was trying to adjust to life without NT Cam Rohr (6’1 315).  The Bison will try to exploit the middle of the Raider DL that will rotate two defensive tackles, Jacob Escaro (6’4 280) and Chuck Moore (6’4 275), in Rohr’s absence. Colgate will need a big game from 1st Team All-Patriot League DE Chris Wheeler (16 TFL). The junior wreaked havoc in the James Madison backfield all afternoon. The Colgate linebackers in defensive coordinator Paul Shaffner’s 3-4 scheme are skilled tacklers, have very good range and are solid in pass coverage. The leader of the unit is Patriot League Defensive POY T.J. Holl (14 TFL, 3.5 sacks). The Colgate secondary is home to three 1st Team All-Patriot League performers; CB Tyler Castillo, CB Abu Daramy-Swaray and Safety Alec Wisniewski. The secondary is very sound in pass coverage and run support. Colgate figures to rotate coverage on Darrius Shepherd like they did with star James Madison WR Riley Stapleton last week.

Special Teams

These are two quality special teams units. Colgate has a slight edge in the kicking department while North Dakota State is a little more explosive in the return game. Chris Puzzi’s clutch 39 yard field goal as time expired last Saturday punched Colgate’s ticket to Fargo. The 1st Team All-PL kicker is now 15-17 kicking field goals with a long of 47. For the second straight Saturday Colgate must contain a dangerous punt returner. Last week, D’Angelo Amos’s 42 yard punt return in the 4th quarter set up the Dukes game tying TD.  Now it’s North Dakota’s Darrius Shepherd who the Raiders must contain. The senior averaged 17.4 yards per return with a long of 69.

colgate4
Youtube/Chris Puzzi

 

Prediction

In order for Colgate to have a chance to pull off what many would consider to be the greatest upset in 1-AA/FCS playoffs hisory the offense must play the perfect game; think 1985 Villanova-Georgetown Title Game. Grant Breneman can’t afford to be off the mark like he was last week and the offensive line needs to have the game of their lives. The Bison defense does not believe in the bend but not break mentality that permeates through football these days. Colgate will need to earn every yard, every first down. Colgate’s James Holland is the type of running back that can grind out yards against any defense but that alone won’t score points.

Colgate’s defense matches up quite well against North Dakota’s offense. Youngstown State (17 pts allowed), Illinois State (28 points allowed) and South Dakota State (21 points allowed) gave the Raider staff a template to use that will hopefully keep the Bison “O” from running roughshod. The keys will be; one, surviving the power running game between the tackles and two, not getting beat over the top.

Top to bottom North Dakota is clearly the better team but not by an overwhelming margin that suggests this can’t be a competitive game; at least for a while. How well Colgate handles the environment will go a long way in determining if there’s some second half intrigue.

North Dakota State 30 Colgate 13