MVFC: Week 6 Preview

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One week into the MVFC and Missouri State already has conference win…how crazy is that? So now we’re on to Week 6 of the FCS college football season and Week 2 of the MVFC.

I want to start by pointing out that if you’re looking for something to fill your audio gap between episodes of the FCS Wedge Podcast (a great podcast for any fan of FCS football…and this is something I would have said well before I was at all affiliated with this site), the MVFC has their own podcast now that (so far) involves interviews with people affiliated with various MVFC teams: broadcasters for various teams, as well as current K-State Associate Director for Football, Jerry Kill (former SIU, NIU, and Minnesota Head Coach). If you’re interested in checking those out, you can listen and subscribe to those at the Valley Football First and Goal website.

Here are the matchups for this Saturday (all times listed in Central and all rankings from the AGS Weekly Poll):

#13 Youngstown State at #25 Illinois State – 2 PM
#1 North Dakota State at #33 Missouri State – 2 PM
#11 Northern Iowa at South Dakota – 2 PM
#31 Indiana State at #16 Western Illinois – 3 PM
#12 South Dakota State at Southern Illinois – 6 PM

All games available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com

#13 Youngstown State at #25 Illinois State – 2 PM

Youngstown State is now 3-1 on the season and 1-0 in the MVFC following a fairly solid 30-20 win at home against South Dakota, where the score ended up being closer than most of the game seemed. Illinois State’s season, however, has figuratively fallen off a cliff, now having lost three straight games after their win at Northwestern. They are 2-3 overall, and 0-2 in the conference having lost their most recent game at the Fargodome against NDSU, 31-10. The Redbirds will begin to attempt to salvage their conference season with their Homecoming Game against the Penguins.

Youngstown State comes into this weekend not really blowing anyone out of the water with their stats, but quietly putting together a solid season with their defense’s ability to keep the opponents scoring to a minimum. The Penguin defense is currently allowing 18.5 points per game, good for 7th in the FCS. Primarily, it’s the (FCS 10th ranked) run defense that’s only allowing 92.3 yards per game, but some of it also falls on the efficiency of the offense. YSU nabs just over 16 ½ yards per completion (6th in the FCS) and puts up over 262 yards per game on the ground. What this tells me is that they are primarily a running team (led by RB Martin Ruiz with 91.8 yards per game and 6 TDs) that occasionally passes to help spread out the defense (no players have over 44 yards per game receiving), and when they pass, they are fairly good at it, with their QB Ricky Davis currently 19th in the FCS in passing efficiency rating. This play calling style lends itself well to long sustained drives, which is why the Penguins are currently #2 in the FCS in time of possession, holding onto the ball for an average of just under 35 minutes per game. Another thing that stands out to me is that this style of gameplay…not flashy, but efficient…is very similar to a very successful MVFC team in the far north. I’m not saying YSU is on the level of NDSU at this point (not many teams are), but they’re definitely taking a page from the Bison playbook in terms of their areas of focus, and it seems to be working well for them so far.

Illinois State on the other hand, has had a rough go of things over the last three games. Now, to be fair, two of the games (one especially) are kinda “rivalry games” where the opponent always seems to play them tough no matter how good or bad they’re supposed to be that year, and the other was against the Bison…who, if they’re on point, can make just about anyone look like a bad team. There’s not actually a ton that stands out to me about the Redbirds stat-wise. They are pretty good and not beating themselves with penalties (12th fewest in FCS) although it seems like the ones they do get are kinda high-yardage ones (34th in penalty yards per game). In general, their defense is pretty decent, holding teams to 313 yards and 21.8 points per game (15th and 22nd in the FCS respectively) but their offense is significantly down from what we’ve gotten used to from them over the last few years. QB Jake Kolbe is currently 6th in the FCS in completion percentage, mostly throwing to WR Anthony Warrum (97 yards per game and 2 TDs) but more recently has been including WR Anthony Fowler in the gameplan, who picked up 119 yards and a TD receiving last week against NDSU.

Overall, I feel like YSU is “trending up” while ISU is heading in the opposite direction. If the Redbirds aren’t able to right the ship against the Penguins at Homecoming, then it could end up being a very long season for the “Normal Boys”. I think that the matchups between the various offenses and defenses points me in the direction of a low scoring, somewhat close YSU victory.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 6

#1 North Dakota State at #33 Missouri State

The Bison hit the road for only the second time this season after having dismantled the ISU Redbirds last weekend in the dome to the tune of 31-10, and are currently 4-0 on the season and 1-0 in the conference. Missouri State is, so far, been something of a surprise this season, having won last week at Indiana State 45-24. That win brought them to 3-1 for the season, 1-0 in the conference and allowed them to surpass their entire points total from last season.

North Dakota State rolls into Springfield, MO this Saturday with the a team that (as mentioned in the previous game’s section) isn’t flashy, but just flat-out works. The Bison’s “bread and butter” is the ground game, where they are good on both sides of the ball…16th in the FCS in rushing offense, 6th in the FCS in rushing defense, and 1st in the FCS in time of possession. Through the air though, they’ve had a few issues, although part of that could be because they were playing some pretty good passing teams. Still, they’ve allowed 261 yards per game through the air, which is 96th in the FCS. Essentially, it looks like the way to beat the Bison, if it happens this year, is to have a very good passing offense to take advantage of one of their few weaknesses.

The Missouri State Bears also have a very good rushing defense (5th in the FCS) although the rushing offense isn’t quite as good (35th in the FCS). Their offense in general is fairly “middle of the road” in terms of where they’re ranked in the FCS, although they did put up 473 yards and 45 points at Indiana State last weekend, led by WR Malik Earl’s 161 yards and 2 TDs receiving and RB Calan Crowder’s 131 yards and 3 TDs rushing. Their defense is led by LB Dylan Cole, who had 13 tackles against ISU and is currently averaging 8.75 tackles per game. Cole also had 1 tackle for loss, 1 forced fumble, and 1 interception returned for 13 years, which all combined to net him both the MVFC and the STATS FCS Defensive Player of the Week awards for last weekend’s performance.

So, overall, MSU looks to be a good bit improved over what we’ve seen the last few years. Improved enough to beat NDSU?….unlikely. Will it be better for them than last year’s 55-0 walloping at the Fargodome?…I’d say probably. I think it’ll be a win for the Bison, but the Bears will keep things a little closer than the blowout that you saw last year.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 28

#11 Northern Iowa at South Dakota

Up next, a battle of two “domed” teams, with the Northern Iowa Panthers boarding their busses outside of the UNIDome in Cedar Falls, then heading 4 hours down Route 20 across the state of Iowa, and just across the border to South Dakota, where they’ll roll up in Vermillion at the DakotaDome (I assume they’re taking a bus and not flying, since it’s only a 4 hour drive). UNI is 2-2 overall and 1-0 in MVFC play after doubling up Southern Illinois last weekend, 42-21, in a win that they desperately needed after 2 straight losses to good FCS teams. The South Dakota Coyotes are 1-3 overall and 0-1 in the MVFC after traveling to Youngstown State and falling 30-20 to the Penguins.

Like a good number of MVFC teams, the visiting Panthers are a pretty run-heavy team, led by QB Aaron Bailey, who isn’t the greatest throwing QB in the conference, but he might be the best running QB in the conference. He has an average of 172.3 yards per game and 5 TDs through the air, but also has contributed 80.3 yards per game and 4 TDs on the ground. He is also very good at making smart decisions (in large part probably since he knows he can run it pretty effectively if he needs to), leading the FCS (tied with Wofford) for number of passes intercepted with 0 through their 4 games. The other primary rusher is RB Tyvis Smith with 80.75 yards per game and 2 TDs. Defensively, UNI is very strong against the run, allowing only 68 yards per game (4th in the FCS) although they’ve allowed 255.3 yards per game through the air (92nd in the FCS)…like some of the other MVFC teams though, this stat is probably somewhat skewed by the fact that they played a couple of very good Big Sky teams in their OOC schedule…a conference generally known for high-powered aerial offenses. Their defense has a couple of standouts on the squad: LB Jared Farley leads the team in tackles with 31, 2 for loss, along with 1 interception, and DL Karter Schult who has put up 26 tackles, with an incredible (and FCS leading) 13 for loss including 7.5 sacks. Schult also has 1 interception for 20 yards and 1 forced fumble.

The host Coyotes have struggled this season, only putting up 368.5 total yards per game, while giving up 457.3 yards per game. They do have a couple of bright spots on their team, with the run game putting up 198.8 yards per game (22nd in the FCS). They are actually in a similar situation as UNI is currently, with a strong running QB (Chris Streveler) putting up just about the same number of yards on the ground as their other leading RB…in this case Trevor Bouma. Streveler has 90.5 yards per game on the ground and 4 TDs, Bouma has 89.8 yards on the ground and 1 TD. Passing, Streveler puts up 162 yards per game and has 11 TDs vs 5 interceptions. The “top” receiver for the team, Shamar Jackson, has hauled in 34.2 yards per game and has 4 TDs. Another area of interest for USD is their kicking game. USD kicker/punter Miles Bergner is a perfect 6-6 on field goals, including a 45-yarder against YSU and a 50-yarder in a loss at non-conference rival North Dakota. Bergner also handles punting and kickoff duties, averaging 62 yards per kickoff and 47.0 yards per punt, including a long of 64 and 8 of his 23 punts being 50 or more yards.

Comparing the two teams, they both have a similar style…running QB, pass when needed, but not a huge amount, better at stopping the run than they are at stopping the pass, but I think UNI is quite a bit better at most of those facets than USD is at the moment. I’m going to have to go with a UNI win in this game.

TL:DR – Northern Iowa by 13

#31 Indiana State at #16 Western Illinois

Indiana State heads across the Land of Lincoln to take on Western Illinois for the Leathernecks’ Homecoming Game. ISU brings a somewhat confusing record, having beaten Butler (expected), losing to Minnesota (expected), beating a SEMO team that beat Eastern IL (not entirely unexpected), then beating Illinois State (rather unexpected) and then losing by quite a bit at home to Missouri State (wat?!?!?). Kinda feels like nearly halfway into the season and we haven’t really figured out much of anything about the Sycamores. Western on the other hand, started off hot, winning their first 3 including a win over FBS Northern Illinois, and then followed it up with what has apparently become our annual shellacking at the hands of an XDSU squad (this time a 38-point loss to SDSU).

Digging into the details on the Sycamores, we find a halfway decent passing offense (298 yards per game) and a pretty “meh” rushing offense (125.2 yards per game). QB Isaac Harker has been doing pretty well though, ranking 15th in the FCS in passing yards per game 287 and 9th in passing TDs (11 total). He’s much more of your typical passing QB than some of the other ones I’ve mentioned (like at UNI and USD), having essentially no rushing yards credited to him. His primary target is WR Robert Tonyan, who accounts for 73.2 yards per game and 5 receiving TDs. Also, WR Bob Pugh, who was out last game with a sprained ankle, is expected to play in this game…he’s been putting together 61.5 yards per game receiving, a few yards on the ground, as well as handling punt and kick return duties, adding up to team-leading 120.5 all-purpose yards per game. ISU has the 97th ranked defense in the FCS, allowing 445.6 yards per game, and the 102nd ranked scoring defense at 36.6 points per game. LB Jameer Thurman is currently #2 in the conference for total tackles with 46, including 7 for loss, 1 sack, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery. DB Tsali Lough also contributes significantly with 35 total tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble and recovery.

The Leathernecks are more of a run-oriented team, despite having a couple of pretty good receivers in Lance Lenoir (averaging 103.3 yards per game) and Joey Borsellino (56 yards per game). RB Steve McShane is, despite being held to only 56 yards in the game at SDSU, is still 5th in the FCS for rushing yards per game with 124.5. QB Sean McGuire has thrown for 218.25 yards per game and has 6 TDs and 2 interceptions (both against SDSU last week). Those two interceptions are actually the only turnovers the Leathernecks have had this season, otherwise holding onto the ball fairly well…they’re still #2 in the FCS for lost turnovers. The other thing that the Leathernecks are really good at is red zone defense (1st in the FCS). Essentially, if a team gets into the red zone, the Leathernecks are very good at stopping them. This is largely due to the abilities of LB Brett Taylor (39 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 1 interception) as well as a few talented defensive line guys who have stepped up this year. The problem, however, is that the DBs are young and frequently get burned by long pass plays (115th in passing yards allowed)…which often are from outside the 20 yard line. For example, last weekend against SDSU, the Jackrabbits put up 52 points on Western, yet only made it inside the red zone once (and then, only just barely, scoring from the 17 yard line). The average offensive TD reception that WIU gave up was from 32 yards out.

So, a Leathernecks team, heading home for Homecoming, following a pretty substantial loss that they were expected to compete closely in…I think they’ll be pretty angry about that. The Leathernecks offense is good enough that they should be able to put a decent amount of points on ISU’s defense, and I think that, other than an occasional long pass to Tonyan or Pugh, they should be able to contain the ISU offense, especially if the front line is able to get pressure on their QB Harker. This should be made easier for the Leathernecks due to a significant number of ISU O-linemen being out due to injury (I’ve heard 3 of the starters, but I’ll have to double check that number). I think that Western will come out angry and pound the ball all afternoon, resulting in a fairly solid Leatherneck Homecoming victory.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 14

#12 South Dakota State at Southern Illinois

The Jackrabbits are headed down to Carbondale, IL to take on the Salukis this Saturday. SDSU is 2-2 on the season following a 38-point utter obliteration of Western Illinois last weekend, and are now 1-0 in the conference. SIU meanwhile, is coming back from being doubled up by the UNI Panthers to the tune of 42-21. Southern is also 2-2 overall, but is 0-1 in the conference.

SDSU boasts one of the most impressive passing attacks in all of the FCS, possibly second only to Eastern Washington (if everyone is healthy). QB Taryn Christion currently leads the FCS in passing efficiency, is third in passing TDs and is 11th for passing yards per game with 292.5. His primary receiving targets are probably the 2nd best WR in the FCS (behind EWU’s Cooper Kupp) in Jake Wieneke (currently #1 in receiving TDs in the FCS and 13th in receiving yards per game with 107.8) and very possibly the best receiving TE in the FCS currently (I could be wrong, but I haven’t heard much from anyone else, and on the receiving TDs list, he’s double the next TE) with Dallas Goedert, who is currently at 3rd on the receiving TDs list (that’s correct…SDSU has the #1 and #3 TD receivers in the country) and 8th in receiving yards per game with 113.3. A large part of Goedert’s numbers are boosted by his performance against Western last weekend, where he caught 204 yards and 4 TDs. On the SDSU Defense, they have two players at 34 total tackles, LB Christian Rozeboom (who also has 1.5 sacks and a 37-yard interception returned for TD) and LB Jesse Bobbit (who also has an interception). DB Dallas Brown is the team leader in “tackles for loss” with 4.5 (and an interception returned for a TD).

SIU also has a pretty good offense (although not on the level of SDSU) with the FCS 8th ranked passing offense led by Senior DII transfer QB Josh Straughan. Straughan is currently 5th in the FCS in passing yards per game with 307 and 17th in passing TDs with 9. The receiving yardage is pretty spread out amongst a few players, with nobody getting more than 61 yards per game receiving, but 3 guys getting around 50-60…so…it’s kinda like WR-by-committee (you know, like RB-by-committee, but with receivers). Their top RB is Daquan Isom, who’s currently averaging 75 yards per game, but only has 1 TD. They also have a pretty dangerous kick return guy in RB DJ Davis who has averaged 32 yards per kick return (4th in the FCS) and has 1 return for a TD so far this season. LB Chase Allen leads the team in tackles with 30 including a sack as well as 1 forced fumble. DE Deondre Barnett has 5 tackles for loss, including 4 sacks and is currently SIU’s sack leader. One area that SIU does not do well in is penalties; they’re currently averaging 9 penalties per game for 84 yards.

As for who’s likely to come out on top of this matchup? I’d say if SDSU’s offense has anything like the game they had last weekend, they’ll be putting up a ton of points. There’s not many defenses out there that are geared to be able to shut down SDSU’s weapons…maybe someone like Chattanooga…maybe NDSU, but they’re better equipped to stop the run game? Will SIU’s passing attack be able to keep up with the Jackrabbits? I doubt it. I think it’ll be a fairly high scoring game overall…maybe something like 70 total points or so, but SDSU should come away with a win by a pretty decent margin.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 10