MVFC: Week 11 Preview

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Missed last week’s review this time, so here’s just a quick update on that.

MVFC Week 10 Game Scores:

Northern Iowa – 39
Indiana State – 6
UNI WR Marcus Weymiller ran for 171 yards and RB Michael Malloy got 3 rushing TDs. ISUb’s offense held to 201 yards and 0 TDs total and threw 2 interceptions.

Illinois State – 31
Western Illinois – 26
ISUr QB Jake Kolbe passes for 265 yards and 4 TDs and WIU QB Sean McGuire passes for 312 and 2 TDs, but 1 interception.

South Dakota – 28
Southern Illinois – 35
SIU looks to the future, starting Sophomore QB Sam Straub over the Senior transfer that had been starting most of the season. Straub throws for 339 yards and 2 TDs and rushes for 68 and a TD. USD’s talented QB Chris Streveler throws for 219, 2 TDs, and 2 interceptions and runs for 113 yards and 1 TD.

Missouri State – 24
South Dakota State – 49
SDSU’s run game sees 4 different players get rushing TDs (6 total between the 4) and QB Taryn Christion passes for another. SDSU WR Jake Wieneke and Dallas Goedert both top 100+ yards receiving.

Youngstown State – 3
North Dakota State – 24
NDSU QB Easton Stick only passes for 89 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception, but the run game more than makes up for it, picking up 2 more TDs. The YSU offense performs as expected, notching 1 32-yard FG in the second quarter.

How’d I do against last week’s picks?….

Predicted UNI by 15, actual result is UNI by 33 – W
Predicted WIU by 7, actual result is ISUr by 5 – L
Predicted USD by 13, actual result is SIU by 7 – L
Predicted SDSU by 30, actual result is SDSU by 25 – W
Predicted NDSU by 4, actual result is NDSU by 21 – W
Went 3-2 this week, so I’m now I’m 21-12 for picking MVFC games this season.

Playoff Picture:

Current standings in the conference are…

#2 NDSU: 5-1, 8-1
#10 SDSU: 5-1, 6-3
#15 YSU: 4-2, 6-3
#21 WIU: 3-3, 6-3
#30 UNI: 3-3, 4-5
USD: 3-3, 4-5
#28 ISUr: 3-4, 5-5
MSU: 2-4, 4-5
ISUb: 2-5, 4-6
SIU: 1-5, 3-6

If we consider 7 wins to be the “threshold” for playoff consideration then here’s what the teams need to do to have a shot at the playoffs (outside of the conference autobid):

NDSU – already reached 7+ wins
SDSU – need to win 1 out of 2
YSU – need to win 1 out of 2
WIU – need to win 1 out of 2
UNI – can only reach 6 wins
USD – can only reach 6 wins
ISUr – can only reach 6 wins
MSU – can only reach 5 DI wins (one win over NAIA school)
ISUb – can only reach 5 wins
SIU – can only reach 5 wins

So, NDSU is in the playoffs, they’re just playing for seeding now.
SDSU, YSU, and WIU each need at least 1 win in their last 2 games to be likely in the playoffs.
Everyone else is probably outside looking in, although UNI and ISUr both have an outside shot at playoffs if they win out, being 6-5 and both having wins over P5 FBS teams.

On to the games…

This week, we have:

Southern Illinois at #15 Youngstown State @ 11 AM
Missouri State at #28 Illinois State @ 12 PM
#30 Northern Iowa at #21 Western Illinois @1 PM
South Dakota at #10 South Dakota State @ 2 PM
Indiana State at #2 North Dakota State @ 2:30 PM

Southern Illinois at #15 Youngstown State

SIU is well out of the playoff picture at this point, but could still play spoiler to the Penguins, who need to win 1 more game (out of their final 2) to have a solid shot at the playoffs. This one’s going to be interesting. The Salukis have the FCS’s 8th best passing offense, which appears to have only gotten better when they went with Sophomore QB Sam Straub last week. They’ll have to match up with the FCS’s 9th best passing defense at YSU. The Saluki’s don’t have a great run game, however, which could be an issue against the excellent Penguin run defense. When YSU has the ball, the offense is…well….anemic. Their run game is decent, putting up over 200 yards per game on the ground, but their passing game is horrible, accounting for less than 160 yards per game, which is in the bottom 20 of all FCS teams. Luckily for YSU, the SIU pass defense is also pretty bad and their run defense isn’t great (7th in the conference).

The YSU defense is one of the best in the FCS in keeping opposing teams from scoring, but also one of the worst at scoring themselves. SIU is much more balanced, although their offense is a little bit better than their defense overall. I think we’ll see quite a bit of pressure on the young SIU QB (in only his second ever start) and he’ll struggle…couple of interceptions, maybe 3-4 sacks. The YSU offense will be able to put up just enough points to get past SIU, mostly on the ground.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 6

Missouri State at #28 Illinois State @ 12 PM

The Bears are also out of the playoff picture, although the Redbirds have an outside shot at an at-large spot if they win this game dominantly and get lucky with some other key “bubble team” losses. They’d be at 6-5 with wins over probable playoff teams SDSU and WIU, as well as the Big 10’s Northwestern, and they would have won the last 3 straight to end the season. It’s probably not hugely likely, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

ISU is ranking slightly ahead of MSU in most areas. They’re very good at not getting penalized and have one of the better pass defenses in the conference. MSU’s offense is currently last in the conference, and generally geared more towards the passing game, although they have thrown 14 interceptions this season, which is worst in the conference.

The other thing is that ISU is just flat-out playing good football right now. Back-to-back weeks with wins over decently ranked teams (SDSU and at WIU). You can argue that the refs helped them out with the SDSU game, but they did get themselves into a position to win both times. The other thing is that sometimes you’ll see teams looking past some of the bottom teams towards the next week’s opponent. This won’t be an issue with ISU, since they have their bye week next weekend, and they need another win to hold on to their (admittedly very slim) playoff hopes. MSU meanwhile is playing on the road, with not much to play for beyond bragging rights. I think ISU will do fine in this game and spend next weekend watching a lot of football on TV and rooting against some other playoff “bubble” teams.

TL:DR – Illinois State by 11

#30 Northern Iowa at #21 Western Illinois

Around the middle in the season, when I was looking at the schedule and what WIU would probably have to do to make the playoffs (win 1 out of the last 3 games against ISUr, UNI, or SIU) I was thinking that it shouldn’t be a problem, since none of the three teams were playing great football and at that point, WIU had only lost one. I’m definately a lot more nervous now that we’re nearing the end of the season. WIU struggled against Illinois State and lost, and UNI has been playing pretty well now that they’ve found an offense. UNI is kinda in the same position as Illinois State, needing to win out to have a slim chance at the playoffs (it’d be a harder road for UNI though, having to beat WIU and then SDSU, whereas ISU just has the one game vs Missouri State left).

It’s kinda hard to just look at stats with Northern Iowa on the offensive side of the ball, since they’ve essentially run 3 different offenses so far this season. The first 6 games, they were running QB Aaron Bailey…and I do mean running, as he was averaging 71 yards per game and had 6 rushing TDs in those 6 games. So…strong run game, but Bailey didn’t really pass much or put up huge yardage through the air (147 yards per game). After dropping to 2-4 on the season after the loss at YSU, they put in sophomore QB Eli Dunne as the starter. Dunne immediately made an impact, throwing for an average of 317 yards and 2 TDs per game over two games, although he did throw 4 INTs against NDSU. Then last weekend, with Dunne out with an injury, they went with a couple of other backup QBs, but actually seemed to do their most damage by direct snapping to WR Marcus Weymiller in the wildcat formation, who rushed for 171 yards. This is even more impressive due to him not touching the ball until around halfway through the 2nd quarter. This week, however, it looks like Dunne will be back at the starting QB spot, but with a newfound option of direct snapping to Weymiller, in addition to the passing ability of Dunne…UNI has suddenly become a rather dangerous offense.

Meanwhile, the UNI defense has rolled along consistently as one of the best in the conference behind only Youngstown State. They have the best player in the FCS at sacks (DL Karter Schult) and are the second best team in the FCS at snagging interceptions.

Western Illinois has had a fairly solid offense mostly, generally set up to go to the pass more often than running the ball, but with transfer RB Jamie Gilmore picking up steam and the talent of Steve McShane, defenses can’t ignore that side of things either. The Leatherneck O-line is also the best in the conference at preventing sacks. Defensively, however, Western has struggled, especially against teams with a good passing game, giving up ~290 yards per game just through the air, mostly through long passing plays. Special teams has also been an issue at times recently, with 5 blocked kicks and a blocked punt allowed this season.

I think that Western could win this game (and I really hope they do), but I think that the advantage is with Northern Iowa right now. That being said, I think that Coach Fisher will have the guys ready to come out and play right off the bat (something they did not do against Illinois State). They’re practically in “playoff mode” already, since I’m not sure 7-5 would be a secure spot if it included losses to a couple of possible 6-5 teams (ISUr and UNI)…that’s assuming they win at SIU next weekend. So a win against UNI would really help solidify their playoff hopes. I realize it’s a “homer” pick, but I think that we’ll finally put together a mostly “full game” and pull off the minor upset in a close, but high scoring game.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 4

South Dakota at #10 South Dakota State

South Dakota started off the conference season well, winning their first three straight, but then losing the last two against WIU and at SIU. Now probably the toughest part of their schedule is up, with games against SDSU and NDSU to finish out the regular season. I think their playoff hopes are essentially gone, although if they did pull off wins against SDSU and NDSU, then they’d be at 6-5 with those wins and very close losses to likely playoff teams North Dakota, YSU, and WIU. They do have an ugly loss against a bad SIU team last week though, and no FBS win to help counteract that. Meanwhile SDSU is already at 6 wins, but would like to win out and possibly snag a top 8 seed in the playoffs. This is also a rivalry game, sometimes called the South Dakota Showdown Series), with this weekend being the 110th meeting and the overall series actually being tied at 52-52-7.

Statistically, SDSU has the advantage in most categories, with the best offense in the conference, although USD is #2. SDSU has a much better passing game, with QB Taryn Christion passing to probably the best WR in conference history (at least statistically) Jake Wieneke, and likely the best TE currently in the FCS, Dallas Goedert. Both players have 10 or more TDs and 1000+ yards receiving this season (they’re the only two players in the conference with over 1000 yards already). USD’s offense is a bit more balanced, although is stronger in their run game, with the #3 and #5 rushers in the conference. #3 is their QB Chris Streveler, who last week threw for 219 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 113 yards and 1 TD, although did throw 2 interceptions in the loss to SIU.

Defensively, neither team is great against the run, being the last two teams in the conference at giving up yards on the ground, but SDSU’s pass defense is fairly solid. USD has the advantage over SDSU (and really, over nearly every FCS team) in the kicking game, with K/P Miles Bergner being #1 in the FCS in punting average, #3 in the FCS in FGs per game and is a perfect 9 for 9 on FGs less than 40 yards, 4 for 5 in the 40 range and 1 for 3 in the 50+ range.

I think that generally, you can throw out “expected” results when it comes to big rivalry games, but I just don’t think USD will be able to stop SDSU’s offense enough to keep up with them. I think the scores will be high (maybe combined 70-80), but SDSU will pull away enough to win by a bit.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 10

Indiana State at #2 North Dakota State

ISU is out of the playoff picture now, since they’re at 4 wins and only have this game left to finish out their season. NDSU meanwhile is aiming to finish out their season strong and grab a top seed for the playoffs giving them homefield advantage.

Indiana State has had a few bright spots in their somewhat disappointing season. QB Isaac Harker is #2 in the conference in passing yards with a bit under 2,600 and #2 in passing TDs with 19. They are also the best team in the conference at recovering fumbles. Unfortunately they’re also the worst team in the conference at losing fumbles and at intercepting passes. They also have the worst rushing offense in the MVFC.

North Dakota State, meanwhile, is very good at their run game, on both sides of the ball….#1 in the conference in both rushing offense and their run defense. They don’t pass a ton (QB Easton Stick runs for ~40 yards per game), but they’ve got multiple options for running the ball that are very good, so they don’t often need to, preferring to just keep pounding away on the ground to get their offensive yardage. When they do pass, they generally do it in short bits, but are selective, with the 2nd best passing efficiency in the conference. Overall, this means that they nearly always pick up some positive yards on every play and rarely end up on the “wrong” side of the line of scrimmage…they’re #4 in the FCS and best in the conference at not allowing tackles for loss.

So…on one hand a team that has struggled this year, with not much to play for outside of garnering a bit of respect, and playing away at one of the toughest and loudest stadiums in the FCS. On the other, one of the best teams in the country, playing near the end of the season (when they always play their best) at home, and fighting for a top playoff seed. I’m afraid I don’t really see this one being very close. NDSU put up 24 points against probably the best defense in the conference (YSU) last weekend, so I think they could easily reach 40. Meanwhile, they’ve been holding some pretty good offenses to the 13-20 point range. I don’t see ISU getting past 14 points probably.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 26