The FCS Wedge

2016 Big Sky Preview: Montana

2015 Record: 8-5 (6-2)

Key Returners: Brady Gustafson, Caleb Kidder, John Nguyen, Yamen Sanders

Key Losses: Daniel Sullivan, Jamaal Jones, Ellis Henderson, Ben Roberts, Tyrone Holmes

The Montana Grizzlies got a new head coach last year and picked up right where they left off, back in the playoffs under new head coach Bob Stitt. The Griz, 8-5 last season, started their season with a thrilling last second win over North Dakota State in Missoula, and ended their season on the opposite side of that, a loss in Fargo to the Bison. The Griz are picked to finish second in the Big Sky this season, behind Northern Arizona. Montana will rely on a senior quarterback and a lot of wide receivers who saw limited playing time last season. They don’t return many starters from a defense that finished in the top half of FCS last season. Needless to say, there will be a lot of new faces on both sides of the football for the Griz.

The Griz finished 28^th in the country in total offense, averaging 42.2 points per game. When Bob Stitt was hired at Montana he promised a fast paced, run as many plays as possible offense. The Griz were one of four teams to run more than 1000 plays last season. The Montana defense was 57^th in the country last year, allowing 380 yards per game. The Griz were +4 in touchdowns last season. The Griz had a couple of puzzling losses last season, to Weber State and Cal Poly, that didn’t help their defense. Montana finished even on the turnover margin last season. Another wrinkle to the Bob Stitt offense was the number of times he went for it on fourth down last season. Montana went for it 38 times and converted 18 of those, good enough for a 47% success rate, 64th in the country. Only Colgate, Cal Poly, and Montana State went for it on 4th down as many times as Montana did last season. All three teams converted at a higher rate than the Griz.

The Griz return the preseason Big Sky defensive player of the year candidate, Caleb Kidder, on defense. Kidder finished last season with 82 tackles, ten tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks. The Griz will need to figure out how they are going to replace their three senior receivers who put up all-time numbers for the Griz. The graduation of Ellis Henderson, Jamaal Jones, and Ben Roberts might slow the Griz down as they will need to rely on a group of fairly green receivers to get them through the year. During spring football a few receivers made themselves known and could step up pretty quickly to help the passing attack. Senior quarterback Brady Gustafson returns this season looking to build on his Griz career. Last season Gustafson passed for 1984 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games for the Griz. Montana will return their top two rushers from last season, John Nguyen and Jeremy Calhoun. Nguyen rushed for 855 yards and three touchdowns. Jeremy Calhoun 291 yards and nine touchdowns.

The Griz schedule has them playing at home once before October, a home contest with Saint Francis. They will travel to Northern Iowa and Cal Poly. Other highlights feature trips to Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington, as well as a home contest with Montana State in the annual Brawl of the Wild. The schedule should set them up nicely for a playoff seed if they can take advantage of the teams on their schedule. Getting through Northern Iowa on the road is going to be a tall task for the Griz, a team that could legitimately win the Missouri Valley. The potential Big Sky game of the year could be the October 22nd date the Griz have in Flagstaff to take on Northern Arizona. That game could very well determine who the Big Sky sends to the playoffs as an auto-bid.

9/3/2016    Saint Francis
9/10/2016     at Northern Iowa
9/24/2016     at Cal Poly
10/1/2016    Southern Utah
10/8/2016    Mississippi Valley State
10/15/2016    Sacramento State
10/22/2016     at Northern Arizona
10/29/2016     at Eastern Washington
11/5/2016    Idaho State
11/12/2016     at Northern Colorado
11/19/2016    Montana State

2016 MVFC Preview: South Dakota

2015: 5-6 (3-5)

Key Returnees: RB Michael Fredrick, RB Trevor Bouma, WR Brandt Van Roekel, DB Tyson Graham

Key Losses: DL Andrew Van Ginkel, DL Drew Iddings, LB Keye Lage, WR Eric Shufford, LB Ryan Hillier, DB Micheal Lilly

Can Bob Nielson bring his magic over of WIU?

For the first time as a MVFC program the Coyotes are heading into the season without Joe Glenn at the helm. Glenn stepped aside during the off season and in came a proven commodity in Bob Nielson. Not only is Nielson a proven commodity, USD grabbed from a conference rival in Western Illinois. Nielson took WIU from a downward spiral and led them to the playoffs last season and developed a roster full of talent. So while it’s never fun to break in a new coach, especially in the MVFC, it helps to have it be a guy who knows the conference and has proven he can do it. Glenn went just 12-34 in his time with USD in the MVFC, including just 6-26 in conference play. I know I catch a ton of flak from USD fans on our forums for what I’ve said about USD, but they are now out of excuses moving forward. They have a coach that’s proven he can recruit and win at a place where it’s difficult. If ever there was a time for optimism in Vermillion, it’s now. Just how high should we have expectations right now though?

Will Seager keep his job or does Streveler fit Nielson better?

While Nielson is stepping into a program that has been at/towards the bottom of the MVFC every season, he isn’t stepping into a place devoid of talent. Nielson developed two quarterbacks at WIU that had all conference potential, and he stepped in with Ryan Saeger going into his senior season looking to change the tune around Coyote football. Saeger started all 11 games at quarterback for USD last season going 165-299 for 1,984 yards. Saeger finished 4th in the conference last year in yards passing per game, but was 10th in efficiency. Part of that is he had just 12 touchdowns and 7 picks. In order for USD’s offense to take a step towards getting into a middle of the pack team that has to improve. Due to the inconsistencies, and Seager’s strengths not matching what Nielson wants to do on offense don’t be shocked to see newcomer Chris Streveler take the job. Streveler transferred in from Minnesota this off season. Streveler had an offer from South Dakota State coming out of high school and seems to fit the same type of mold that Jackrabbits QB Taryn Christion fits. He appears to still be more mobile than what Nielson is used to working with, but has the arm talent to fit Nielson’s system better than Seager might.

Fortunately for whoever is taking the snaps Brandt Van Roekel (33-518-6) is back and will anchor the outside. Outside of Brandt though, we see a drop. Gone is leading receiver, Eric Shufford (45-470-2). Gone is 4th leading target, Nick Meyer (16-208-1). Only one returning receiver had more than 15 catches, TE Aaron Ramsey (17-204-1). That isn’t a sign the talent is low, it is partially due to the style of offense USD has ran the last few years. There hasn’t been a strong need for a roster full of wide receivers putting up numbers. It will be interesting to see if Nielson brings his system, which is much more reliant on the pass, and tries to implement it right away. If so he will need guys to step up, and it will have to be someone we don’t know much about right now. There are currently only 5 wide receivers listed on USD’s roster and outside of Brandt none had more than 5 catches last season.

The smart thing may be to use this year to build on one of the things USD has done relatively well since they joined the conference, run the ball. Michael Fredrick burst on the scene last year running for 622 yards as a true freshman last season, though he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Fredrick got his change because of an injury to Trevor Bouma, who broke his arm against NDSU. Bouma had 435 yards and 6 TD through the first 6 games, and was doing so at 6.0 yards per carry. Add in Ryan Saeger’s 350 yards and you’ve got a dangerous group. USD needs to get better run block though, as as a team they averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year.

Who steps up to replace Lage and Van Ginkel?

The issue for the ‘yotes, especially last year, wasn’t that the offense was bad, though it wasn’t great. The offense was put into situations they weren’t comfortable with as the defense gave up 26 points per game last season and gave up, at least, 30 points 6 times last season. While USD gave up points last year they did manage to rank in the middle-ish, of the pack in most statistical categories. Sadly for USD, Nielson hasn’t been known for defensive prowess at WIU. On top of that he takes over a team that lost a kid that may have had DPOY potential when Andrew Van Ginkel transferred. Van Ginkel is a huge loss as he finished 3rd in National Freshman of the Year voting last season, was MVFC Newcomer team, and lead the conference in TFL. Last season the Leatherneck defense ranked below USD in points per game, rushing defense, pass defense, sacks, 1st downs given up, 3rd downs conversion rate, and total defense. The worrisome thing when combining the loss of Van Ginkel and Nielson’s history with defense is there isn’t a ton of “top end” talent back for USD on defense. In terms of returning stats, USD returns the least in the conference. Guys like DB Tyson Graham, LB John Wessel and DB Jacob Warner are solid players to build a defense on, but there are a lot of question marks after those three as only one other returner had at least 25 tackles – DL Colin Merlik with 38.

Prediction:

9/1 @ New Mexico – L 0-1 (0-0)

9/10 Weber State – W 1-1 (0-0)

9/17 @ North Dakota – W 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 @ Youngstown State – L 2-2 (0-1)

10/8 Northern Iowa – L 2-3 (0-2)

10/15 @ Indiana State – L 2-4 (0-3)

10/22 Illinois State – L 2-5 (0-4)

10/29 Western Illinois – L 2-6 (0-5)

11/5 @ Southern Illinois – W 3-6 (1-5)

11/12 @ South Dakota State – L 3-7 (1-6)

11/19 North Dakota State – L 3-8 (1-7)

I can hear the screams from USD fans already. I can already hear the things USD fans on AGS would/will type as a reply: “Something about jealous of Hawkeyes”, “Scared that USD is the sleeping giant coming for UNI”, etc… Settle a bit, USD fans. I see a future at USD that I didn’t with Glenn at the helm. I think USD is going to be better than that in terms of competitive level, I just don’t see the record showing it this year. I won’t be shocked at all to see USD beat UNM, YSU, Indiana State, Illinois State or Western Illinois. If YSU and ISUb were home games, I give USD the nod. I want to give USD more wins, I really do. Much like how I came to UNI’s record a few days ago, I have to predict based on who I think has the better chance to win and this year USD falls on the wrong sie of that. I’d be surprised to USD beat UNI, but it won’t catch me completely off guard. I won’t be shocked to see USD at 5 or 6 wins. I think 5-6 with 3 or 4 conference wins is realistic this year. I think they have good talent at the top, I just don’t think they have depth right now. Nielson will bring that, at least on offense. For the first time I actually think USD had a bit of a future to look forward too, assuming Nielson isn’t poached if he has success. I just don’t like how the schedule sets for for USD this year. Flip a couple home/road games and move a game from early to MVFC play to late and I’d predict this different. I don’t think you’re MVFC title bound anytime soon, but I think Nielson can get USD to fighting for a playoff spot, like he did with WIU, before this years freshman class graduates.

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Gardner-Webb

*Preview courtesy Libertine on AGS

Gardner-Webb’s 2015 campaign had a few bright spots – the brightest certainly being their upset win over a ranked Liberty team – but, on the whole, inconsistent play forced their season into a slow boring descent toward winter.

Things started off reasonably well as G-W took a second-half lead in their opener against FBS South Alabama. Despite ultimately losing the game, the Runnin’ Bulldogs played well and the general outlook for the year looked pretty good. Then came an absolute quagmire of a home opener against Elon in which neither team scored more than seven points in regulation and which Gardner-Webb would, again lose. This was followed by a close 13-9 win – but still a win – against Division II afterthought Virginia Union. Following a shutout loss to an average Wofford squad and a week off, the Bulldogs team finally showed a jolt of life against 15th-ranked Big South enemy* Liberty, managing to pull off their first win against LU since 2006. This moment of euphoria, however was short-lived as Gardner-Webb promptly went and laid an egg the next week at Kennesaw State. This pattern would repeat itself over the next five weeks as the G-W team would manage to lose in depressing fashion then pull out a win before losing yet again. The end result was a 4-7 record and a nice break at Thanksgiving. It should be noted that the nice break at Thanksgiving would have happened regardless as the NCAA had banned GWU from the postseason due to low APR scores.

*(I defend my use of the term “enemy” and not something more usual like “rival”. On average, Gardner-Webb fans hate Liberty and I use THAT term in the definitive sense. This could be due to historically religious and denominational similarities between the two schools. It could be due to the fact that a fair number of current and former athletic administrators and coaches at Gardner-Webb were, at one time, athletic administrators and coaches at Liberty. Either way, the hostility is real although it generally only flows one direction from south to north. As I walked out of last year’s game, the GW student walking in front of me, weeping with joy, called her mom to tell her that their team had “just beat Liberty” and, for her part, dear ole Ma on the other end of the line was none too quiet about her happiness either.)

The 2016 season could see quite a few changes for Gardner-Webb. The defense was reasonably strong, however, graduation cost G-W every starter on the defensive line, including All-American nose guard OJ Mau. Chad Geter remains to anchor the linebacking corps but two of the four starters there are gone as well as both starting corners. In addition, defensive coordinator Randall McCray – and head coach Carroll McCray’s brother – who had been largely credited with the success of the Bulldog defense, departed at season’s end, ultimately ending up as the defensive coordinator at Texas State.

On the other side of the ball, the offense was, largely, a hot mess. Except for one glorious night, Tyrell Maxwell was wildly erratic at quarterback and the offense struggled to even approach the red zone let alone score. In June, QB Ramsey Rigby transferred into the G-W program after spending just the 2016 spring semester at Troy and, if nothing else, should certainly provide the position with some competition. At running back, leading non-QB rusher Bobby Clark is gone to graduation, leaving behind him a pile of question marks at the position. On the offensive line, multi-year starters Dylan Hopper and Matt McAlvin are gone; however, they will be getting a little FBS help up front as, after a long battle with pancreatitis, Rigby’s teammate* at Troy, Blake Hudson, has followed his QB to the bright lights of Boiling Springs. TE Mike Estes was far and away the best receiver on the roster last year, catching five of the team’s seven total receiving touchdowns and, at 29 catches, nearly one-third of the team’s total receptions. While Estes’ value to the Bulldogs cannot be overstated, when one player represents nearly by himself the entirety of the downfield passing attack, it’s not necessarily a positive. When that player is a tight end, it pretty much becomes a negative.

*(Hudson and Rigby seem practically joined at the hip. They were not only teammates at Troy but also teammates just down the road at Elba High School. Both graduated high school and enrolled at Troy at the mid-year and both left the program for Gardner-Webb after one semester.)

The kicking game for G-W was average at best but, at least, it was consistent. K Paul Schumacher and P Andrew Komornik both return for what should be more of the same.

The schedule:

@ Elon (9/3)

@ Western Carolina (9/10)

The Citadel (9/17)

@ Ohio (/24)

Benedict (10/1)

Presbyterian (10/8)

Coastal Carolina (10/15)

@ Kennesaw State (10/22)

@ Liberty (10/29)

@ Charleston Southern (11/5)

Monmouth (11/19)

2016 Big Sky Preview: Idaho State

2015 Record: 2-9 (1-7)

Key Returners: Michael Sanders, Hayden Stout, Jakori Ford, KW Williams

Key Losses: Xavier Finney, Madison Mangum, CJ Hatchett, Erik Collins, Kurt Karstetter

The Idaho State Bengals had a pretty rough year last year. They finished the season at 2-9 last season and the media isn’t picking them to be much better than that this year, finishing 11^th in the preseason poll. The Bengals do return some talent to their team this year, receiver KW Williams, running back Jakori Ford, quarterback Michael Sanders, and linebacker Hayden Stout. There are some talented players on this team, however, their success has been incredibly limited over the last few seasons. Mike Kramer’s team had a promising performance in 2014, finishing 8-4, however they took a pretty severe step backwards last season.

Idaho State finished 48^th in total offense last season which is kind of respectable given their two win season. They were averaging 397 yards per game last season. However, a good offense can be easily outdone by a bad defense. Idaho State had a bad defense, finishing 111^th in total defense, giving up 456 yards per game. You don’t win many football games when your defense gives up 100 more yards of offense than you can accumulate. The Bengals finished -19 in touchdown ratio last season. Having an offense that was as good as it was it’s just really hard to imagine that they finished so far in the negative on the touchdown category. That’s the sign of a really bad football team and not putting the ball away when you need to. The Bengals finished 119th in turnover margin last season, at -15. If you’re looking for a reason why things weren’t great in Pocatello you don’t have to read much more than this paragraph.

The Bengals offensive weapons should help this season at least keep a few of their games close. Quarterback Michael Sanders started eight games last season, throwing for 2131 yards and 21 touchdowns. He was a transfer from Scottsdale Community College. The Bengal running back Jakori Ford carried the ball for 450 yards and three touchdowns for the Bengals. He was the second leading rusher on the team last season. The Bengals second leading receiver from last season will also be back, KW Williams. He caught 684 yards worth of passes and seven touchdowns. Those three players will need to step up this year for the Bengals. Senior linebacker Hayden Stout is an outstanding linebacker from Meridian, Idaho. He led the team in tackles last season with 113, 52 were unassisted. He has been a three year starter for the Bengals and will be starting again this coming season.

With Mike Kramer being in his sixth season at the helm at Idaho State you have to think that at some point he’s going to have to start winning games or be shown the door. He has one eight win season to his credit in Pocatello, but a lot of 1-3 win seasons other than that. His seat has to be getting hot, despite the work he has put in to gut that program and rebuild it. Will he still be the coach of the Bengals in 2017? The defense is going to need to improve and the offense is going to need to keep rolling in order for this team to be any kind of successful. The Bengals need to be better at taking care of the football to help themselves. Being -15 in turnovers and being bad at defense are two things that will derail any team’s football season.

Idaho State’s schedule won’t be too easy, as they have a pair of FBS teams on their schedule, Colorado and Oregon State. Their conference schedule won’t be easy either as they’ll play Northern Arizona, Montana, Eastern Washington, North Dakota, and Southern Utah. That could be a pile of losses for the Bengals, but they get two of those five at home. The first hurdle they have to clear is something called Simon Fraser, a team from British Columbia. They’ll need that win to get their season any kind of momentum.

It’s going to be another tough season in Pocatello but if Mike Kramer can find a way to keep this team competitive in even the tougher games there might be room for him on the staff in 2017. If the Bengals suffer a lot of blowout losses it might be time for Kramer and his 16-40 record at ISU to seek other employment.

9/3/2016    Simon Fraser University (B.C.)
9/10/2016    at University of Colorado
9/17/2016    at Oregon State University
9/24/2016    Sacramento State
10/1/2016    at Portland State University
10/15/2016    at Northern Arizona University
10/22/2016    University of North Dakota
10/29/2016    Southern Utah University
11/5/2016    at University of Montana
11/12/2016    at Eastern Washington University
11/19/2016    Weber State University

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Austin Peay

*Thank you to JSUSoutherner on AGS for putting together our OVC previews

2015 Record: 0-11 (0-8 OVC)

Key Losses: QB Trey Taylor, LB Adam Nobel

Key Returnees: RB Kendall Morris, WR Jared Beard, DB Roderick Owens

Things haven’t been too great the last few years in Clarksville, Tennessee. The Governors are coming off another 0 win season, their second in three years. In fact, they only have one win in their past three years under Kirby Cannon, a 20-13 win over a visiting Murray State team that went on to a 1-7 OVC record in 2014. That win in 2014 snapped the longest losing streak in the FCS at the time, 18 losses in a row. Unfortunately, the Governors have lost 16 games since then to once again claim the longest losing streak in Division I football.

However, the future is bright in Clarksville and double digit losing streaks look to be a thing of the past.

APSU has been a hot topic (for a team that hasn’t had back to back wins in 5 years) this off season since Will Healy moved to town. Coach Healy was the former wide receivers coach, passing-game coordinator, and recruiting coordinator for the Chattanooga Mocs and will take the helm from an unproductive Kirby Cannon. Healy has so far looked productive for the Governors this offseason as he put together one of the Gov’s best recruiting classes in years. Coach Healy’s recruiting experience with the Mocs will likely prove to be useful as the Govs begin their rebuilding stage.

Healy has the Herculean task of turn the program around and that will be easier said than done. Last year APSU’s offense only managed 12 points a game and only averaged 248 yards a game. And to make matters worse a majority of those points and yards came in garbage time when they were getting blown out and teams had their backups in. Fortunately Healy engineered a passing game at UTC that was consistently ranked as one of the best in the nation. If he can bring implement his scheme with APSU’s personnel we may see some drastic improvement on the offensive side of the ball.

The other problem for APSU was defense. Last year the Govs gave up 451 yards and 39 points per game. New defensive coordinators Marcus West and Brandon Cooper, like Healy, spent time coaching for the Moc’s. During their tenure at UTC the Moc’s consistently had one of the top SoCon defense. However, they had numerous All-SoCon and All-American players on deck. This year they have no players on the preseason All-OVC list to work with. But with the amount of new talent the Govs brought in Cooper and West can start from scratch and it will be interesting to see how that goes.

Schedule and Predictions: 1-10 (1-7 OVC)

L 9/3 @ Troy

W 9/10 vs. Tennessee Tech

L 9/24 @ Eastern Illinois

L 10/1 vs. Murray State

L 10/8 @ UT-Martin

L 10/15 @ Jacksonville State

L 10/22 vs. Mercer

L 10/29 @ Southeast Missouri State

L 11/5 vs. Tennessee State

L 11/12 vs. Eastern Kentucky

L 11/19 @ Kentucky

Look for the Governors to make some progress this season, hauling in a win over Tennessee Tech at home. They will likely remain at the bottom of the conference but any success at all will be an improvement for APSU and this is only the beginning of a new era for Austin Peay football.

2016 MVFC Preview: Northern Iowa

2015: 9-5, Quarterfinals

Key Returnees: QB Aaron Bailey, RB Tyvis Smith, DL Karter Schult, LB Jared Farley, OL Robert Rathje

Key Losses: DB Deiondre’ Hall, DB Makinton Dorleant, DB Tim Kilfoy, LB Brett McMakin, OL Jacob Rathmacher

Is this the year UNI finally gets a national title? National consensus heading into the season certainly seems to think UNI is one of, maybe, three teams that can dethrone NDSU. As a UNI fan I can tell you this it the most excited I’ve been about a team since the 2007 and 2008 UNI teams, which took the typical UNI bad bounce out of the playoffs. I know it’s easy to look at what has transpired since 2010, especially with the offensive side of the ball, and question what I just said. The complete lack of identity on offense, the instability that has happened yearly at the quarterback position, the fact UNI is on it’s third offensive system in three years, and lack of true “known star” at the wide receiver position should mean the expectations should be dropped a bit, the loss of the entire secondary and the teams leading tackler to the NFL, yet they are as high as they’ve been in a decade. Why?

Bailey's consistency is key. — Bailey’s consistency is key.

This might be the first year, under Mark Farley, the offense has less questions than the defense and it all starts with the fact there is no, at least shouldn’t be, quarterback battle/controversy. Not just that, UNI has the most explosive player in the conference at that position. Bailey was part of a two quarterback system last fall through the first six games with Sawyer Kollmorgen. Another concussion ended Sawyer’s Panther career and the reigns were handed to Bailey full time. Once he was given the full time job he excelled. He completed 59.9% of his passes for 994 yards with 8 touchdowns and just one interception. The yards were on the lower end, but there is no questioning the efficiency. On top of the passing Bailey carried the ball 170 times for 864 yards (5.14 ypc, which includes sacks and sack yards) and 15 touchdowns. Imagine Bailey having the system built around him from day 1 of spring camp. The thing Bailey must improve is letting routes develop. Due to his freakish athletic ability he is quick to pull the ball down and run. For the offense to be as effective as it can he must develop that skill. I know it was preached during spring ball, to the point where if he broke the pocket at all during a play it was blown dead.

Complimenting Bailey in the backfield is Tyvis Smith, who like Bailey, wasn’t the starter (or even get significant time) until the second half of the season. The 6’3 225lb back is built nearly identical to his predecessor, David Johnson, and when given the ball he seems to run like him. Tyvis finished with 1,079 yards on 182 carries (5.9 yards per carry) last season. They key factor for the run game will be keeping both Bailey and Smith healthy as there isn’t much proven depth behind them. Michael Malloy looked like a promising change of pace back, and was used in a scat back role last year to growing success as the season went on before he suffered a season ending injury. While UNI’s offense has been known to produce talented running back after talented running back I think there should be real concern about proven depth should Smith or Malloy go down with an injury.

Daurice Fountain looking for a breakout season

The receiving corps has two guys that have proven they can get open: Daurice Fountain and Charles Brown. Fountain, a big downfield target with speed, lead the team in receptions (41), yards (604) and touchdowns (5) last season. Brown, a smaller and shiftier slot type, was second in receptions (30) and yards (345) and third on the team in touchdowns (2). Between the two of them we have 59% of the returning receptions, 62% of the yards and 59% of the touchdowns. The key will be who steps in to take pressure off those two. Running back Michael Malloy, as mentioned earlier, made some plays as the season wore on our of a slot look but this team still needs another guy or two to step up and take some secondary attention from Fountain and Brown. My biggest concern, for the entire group, is improving the catch rate. While drops aren’t kept as an official stat it felt as though there were times last season that over half of the incompletions were a result of a drop rather than a poor throw. That will need to be remedied for Bailey to grow. For Bailey to trust his arm more than his legs he must have confidence the receiving corp is going to going to make the play when he needs them too.

Schult looking to repeat last season's success — Schult looking to repeat last season’s success

The defense could, and probably should, be considered a question mark. Gone to the NFL are LB Brett McMakin, CB/S Deiondre’ Hall, CB Makinton Dorleant, S Tim Kilfoy, CB Edwin Young from last years defense. Most teams lose that and I would expect a massive drop off, but UNI (like NDSU) is a different animal when it comes to defense in that it doesn’t entirely matter what the name on the uniform is, though guys like UNI has had come through help. The system is setup to put players in a position to succeed. The secondary will take time to develop, thankfully UNI has one of the best front sevens in the nation every year. On the line Karter Schult (81 tackles, 14 sacks, 22.5 TFL) will force opposing quarterbacks into quick throws and allow the secondary time to develop. The linebacking core will be lead by Jared Farley (97 tackles, 9 TFL, 2.5 sack, INT) and Deshawn Dexter (66 tackles, 11 TFL). Teams won’t be able to run against UNI, once again, so the pressure will be on the secondary to develop as quick as possible.

Prediction:

9/3 @ Iowa State

9/10 Montana

9/17 @ Eastern Washington

10/1 Southern Illinois

10/8 @ South Dakota

10/15 @ Youngstown State

10/22 Missouri State

10/29 North Dakota State

11/5 @ Indiana State

11/12 @ Western Illinois

11/19 South Dakota State

To avoid the calls of “HOMER”, “BOOOO”, “UNI ALWAYS CHOKES”, etc… I won’t predict a record for UNI. It seems right. There are plenty of games that are toss up for me. Iowa State could be a loss, but I don’t trust Iowa State to actually be better and using last year as a litmus for this year is a bad idea. UNI has lost just 2 FCS OOC games since 1997, both at home and both to SFA. I think UNI finally gets revenge on Montana and continues it’s streak against EWU, though the passing game of both scares the hell out of me with the secondary UNI will have. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see one of those two end in a loss. In conference I could see NDSU being a loss, but that game is in Cedar Falls and I don’t think we see UNI lose at home. South Dakota and Indiana State both worry me a bit. UNI has had some issues with both as of recent years, and going to Indiana State the week after NDSU should raise a flag. Both NDSU and UNI have a big of a “down” the week after that war. I think this is a legit title contender. Yes, I think 11-0 is possible, though likely not realistic. I see 9-2 being the most likely situation and anything worse than 8-3 is, from a preseason view, a complete let down.

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Charleston Southern

*Preview courtesy of Libertine on AGS.

2015 was, without question, the high water mark in the history of the football program at Charleston Southern University. CSU captured the conference crown outright, the first squad to do that since Stony Brook in 2011 and only the third team to do it since the Big South moved to a playoff-eligible six teams in 2008. The Bucs took their accomplishment two steps farther by defeating crosstown foe, The Citadel, in the second round of the playoffs before ultimately losing to Jacksonville State in the quarterfinals. Until that game, CSU had won every FCS game on their schedule, including two eventual playoff teams in The Citadel and Coastal Carolina during the regular season (their two losses were to FBS Troy and Alabama), and the final 2015 polls gave the team and head coach Jamey Chadwell a great deal of the recognition that CSU has long sought after. The question and the challenge for the team in 2016 then is one of consistency. Can they do it again?

On offense, Chuck South returns several key players in the backfield, most notably RB’s Darius Hammond and Ben Robinson. The receiving corps returns solid possession receiver Colton Korn and explosiveness of Kenny Dinkins. However, leading receiver Nathan Perera, a big-time target anywhere on the field, graduated after his sixth year in blue. His experience as well as his ability both to produce and to draw defenders was invaluable in 2015 and there’s a big statistical dropoff at the position after him. Three starters on the offensive line graduated as well, as did 6’8” tight end Nathan Prater (who was also a sixth-year player). The most glaring loss on the offense, however, has to be at quarterback. Chadwell’s option-based offense tends to be a little rough on quarterbacks and the Bucs have had to play at least three QB’s in every year that Chadwell has been there. The nominal starter for the last two seasons, one-time UAB transfer Austin Brown, graduated following the 2015 season and so did fellow QB, Danny Croghan. This leaves only rJr Kyle Copeland as the only returning Q with any game experience. Chadwell and his staff are optimistic that Blinn JC transfer Robert Mitchell can shoulder some of the load but history suggests they’re going to need one more.

CSU didn’t have any particular standout talents on the defensive side of the ball. What they did have was a group of players who had played together for several years and knew their assignments backward and forward. Graduation, however, claimed three starters in the secondary, three more in the linebacking corps and one more along the defensive line. On their own, none of these losses is dramatic; however, these losses taken together represent a pool of experience on the field that must now be re-filled in short order. The defensive line will be all right and linebackers Zane Cruz and Solomon Brown are the leading tacklers returning from last season but there is a dearth of experience behind them.

The special teams unit has been inconsistent for the Bucs for a couple of years. Their undefeated season in 2013 was derailed in what was primarily a special teams meltdown at Gardner-Webb and special teams miscues contributed largely in their pivotal 7-3 loss to Presbyterian in 2014. 2015 started off much the same way for CSU and, at one point mid-season, Chadwell opened up a full-team tryout at kicker. Things settled down for them, however, in the last half of the season as true freshman Tyler Tekac took over the FG duties and converted the majority of them.

The schedule:

@ North Dakota State (8/29)

Kentucky State (9/3)

@ Florida State (9/10)

@ Monmouth (9/24)

@ Coastal Carolina (10/1)

Albany State (10/8)

Presbyterian (10/22)

Bucknell (10/29)

Gardner-Webb (11/5)

@ Liberty (11/12)

Kennesaw State (11/19)

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Fordham

*Thank you to the Patriot League posters who helped gather the information for this article

2015 Results: 9-3 (5-1); At-large bid, 1st round playoff loss
Returning starters:
Offense: 10
Defense: 8
The biggest hit Fordham faces from last seasons run to the playoffs is the loss of arguably the greatest coach in Fordham history, Joe Moorhead, who is now the offensive coordinator at Penn State. The good news for Rams fans is that the man he trusted most, his offensive coordinator Andrew Breiner, has assumed the helm and the staff and systems will remain in place. Easing the transition from Moorhead to Breiner is that face that Moorhead left the cupboard full with 18 of 22 starters returning.

Offensively we all know who Fordham will lean on – All American running back Chase Edmonds. Last season Edmonds had a “down year” by the standard he set his first year, and by bad I mean he still ran for 1,648 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and 20 touchdowns. While Chase may get most of the national publicity he’s not the lone play maker in the backfield as dual threat quarterback Kevin Anderson ran for 590 yards and passed for over 3,000 in 2015. A key for Fordham moving forward will be lessening the reliance on Edmonds, as it means their passing game is clicking and they are seeing a more diversified attack. To help the passing game grow it helps to have a legit NFL prospect in 6’8 250lb TE Phazahn Odom who hauled in 37 passes and 7 touchdowns last season. The Rams will need to see growth from the young receiving corps though. Last season three freshman (Corey Caddle, Jonahtha Lumley and Jordan Allen) saw significant playing time. Moving into their second year on the field, and teamed with seniors Robbie Cantllie and Austin Longi should create depth at the position to help take pressure off of Edmonds. The biggest loss, and question, on offense is All American lineman Gerrick Mayweather moving on to the NFL. The rest of the OL is back, but Mayweather is tough to replace. If firing on all cylinders, this offense has a chance to put up numbers like few in the FCS.

Can the Rams defense take a step forward this season?

All of the offense in the world still needs help from it’s defense. To quote a Fordham fan on AGS when asked about the Rams defense last year “we stunk”. This isn’t something that was lost on new head coach, Andrew Breiner, who has vowed to overhaul the philosophy. We see a “good news/bad news” situation with the Rams defense – essentially the entire defense is back, minus All Conference linebacker Stephen Hodge. The good news is guys like George Dawson and Niko Tharpe are back in the linebacking corps. Defensive line anchors Manny Adeyeye and Marlon Crook are back. The front seven should be improved, even with Hodge’s departure. I’d like to say the secondary having everyone back is good news as well, but based on how things played out last year it’s a catch-22. In theory a year of experience should help the group, but much improvement is needed.

2016 Schedule:

9/3 @ United States Naval Academy
9/10 Elizabeth City States
9/24 Penn
10/1 @ Monmouth
10/8 Lafayette
10/15 Yale
10/22 Georgetown
10/29 @ Lehigh
11/5 Colgate
11/12 @ Holy Cross
11/19 @ Bucknell

AGS Preseason Patriot Prediction: 2nd

2016 Big Sky Preview: Eastern Washington

2015 Record: 6-5 (5-3)

Key Returners: Cooper Kupp, Gage Gubrud, Jordan West, Jabari Wilson, Kendrick Bourne

Key Losses: Tyler McNannay, Todd Raynes, the offensive line

The Eastern Washington Eagles are returning a good amount of talent on offense this year, but much like last year, will it translate to wins? The Eagles finished at 6-5 last year, which did not earn them a playoff berth. Four times last year the Eagles allowed more than 50 points to be scored on them. Their defense finished ranked 117^th out of 123 teams. Folks, I don’t have to tell you that’s bad. Only one Big Sky school was worse than that. To add to the complexity of the Eastern Washington preseason is a quarterback battle brewing between Jordan West and Gage Gubrud, a sophomore from McMinnville, Oregon.

The Eagles gave up 476 yards per game last year and allowed 58 touchdowns against them. By comparison, as high powered as the Eagles offense was, they only scored 50 touchdowns. Those numbers, at the bare minimum, will need to reverse in order for the Eagles to reach the playoffs this coming season. The Eastern Washington defense finished 117th out of 123 FCS teams last season. At some point the Eagles will need to start playing some defense to become a legitimate playoff contender. Beau Baldwin needs to make that a priority if he wants his team to find the deeper levels of the playoffs, offense will only take you so far against teams who play very good defense every week.

For all the bad things that Eastern Washington does on defense they do some pretty good things on offense. The Eagles return an FCS player of the year candidate in Cooper Kupp and a quarterback to throw to him, Jordan West. As mentioned above, West could very well lose his starting job during the fall camp. Cupp finished with 1642 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. Eastern finished eighth in total offense last year, third in the Big Sky. The Eagles were the top passing attack in the country last year, averaging 353 yards per game through the air. The Eagles also return their leading rusher from last season, Jabari Wilson, who piled up nine touchdowns himself. Unfortunately for Wilson, because the Eagles are so efficient through the air only piled up 661 yards on the ground.

The Eagles may find themselves in a track meet right away to start the season as they travel to Pullman to take on Mike Leach’s Washington State Cougars. Eastern doesn’t want a track meet with Leach’s boys if they want to win. From there the buzz saw gets tougher as they travel to Fargo to take on the defending national champion North Dakota State. After that is a home contest with Northern Iowa, then an away date with Northern Arizona.

I feel pretty bad for Eastern in September, that’s an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season, and they could easily start 0-4. The schedule lightens up in October with UC-Davis and Northern Colorado at home. They’ll finish with Portland State on the road. This is not an easy schedule and Eastern will be literally clawing its way into the playoffs if it’s close. They need an upset or two in September to be a playoff team.

The Eagles are picked by the media to finish third in the Big Sky this coming season. Realistically there is three games in conference that they could lose and should win the rest on their schedule. In this year’s Big Sky I don’t think that three conference losses will be good enough for a third place finish. Considering that their start to the season could be pretty ugly I just don’t see the Eagles as a playoff team. Unfortunately if the Eagles are not a playoff team that could do some damage to Cooper Kupp’s campaign to be the FCS player of the year.

9/3/2016     at Washington State
9/10/2016     at North Dakota State
9/17/2016    Northern Iowa
9/24/2016     at Northern Arizona
10/1/2016    UC Davis
10/8/2016    Northern Colorado
10/22/2016    at Montana State
10/29/2016    Montana
11/5/2016     at Cal Poly
11/12/2016    Idaho State
11/18/2016    at Portland State

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Colgate

2015 Results: Colgate 9-5 (6-0); Patriot League Champions, Quafterfinals
Returning starters:
Offense: 9
Defense: 9

Coming into the season Raiders look to be the most balanced team in the Patriot League. Senior quarterback Jake Melville is the focus of the Raiders offense, and honestly, he’d be the focus of most offenses in the nation. Last season Melville completed 55% of his passes for 2,552 yards (a nice 13.2 yards per completion) and perhaps most impressively was his 11 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. What made Melville such a threat throught he air was is his ability to get outside of the pocket as he ran for 1,073 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 11 more touchdowns. Helping open up room for Melville to make plays is running back James Holland who ran for 732 yards and an impressive 16 touchdowns last season. That kind of threat out of the backfield opens up plenty of space at wide receiver to make plays. The biggest beneficiary of that is John Maddaluna. Maddaluna is a burner on the outside as he finished with 62 catches for 910 yards last season. Between Melville and Holland there aren’t many touchdowns to go around, but for Colgate to repeat last years playoff run I think Maddaluna will need to find his way into the end zone a few more times. Complimenting Maddaluna on the other side is Alex Greenwalk, who finished last season with 5 touchdowns and 598 yards on 40 receptions last year. After that there is a drop in production returning though. The top end talent is there to see a repeat of last season, but depth could become an issue should the injury bug show up.

Last season the Raider defense was inconsistent at times but overall fairly solid. The best thing to help this unit with it’s consistency is the face that 9 starters return from last years squad. As an added bonus, two starters from the 2014 campaign return after missing last season due to injury – Defensive tackle Victor Steffen and safety Adam Bridgeforth. Returning up front are the anchors for the entire defense, Pat Afriyie (First Time All League), Alex Campbell (Second Team All League) and Brett Field (Second Team All League). The havoc caused by those three up front frees the linebackers and secondary to make plays sideline to sideline, which is seen in the secondary secondary as Joe Figueroa, Christian Hardegree and Tyler Castillo all being in the top 10 on the team in tackles. Normally the secondary being towards the top of the team in tackles isn’t a good sign, but when it can be attributed to guys up front allowing them too make playes, compared to them being forced to make them, it’s a good sign.

The challenge for Colgate is staying on edge. Coach Hunt commented on the difficulty of repeating as champions. Colgate achieved it last year with the ability to win a lot of close games, which they’ll need again this year as the two toughest games, Fordham and Lehigh, and all three OOC games on the road.

2016 Schedule:

9/2 @ Syracuse

9/17 @ Yale

9/24 @ Richmond

10/1 Cornell

10/8 @ Lehigh

10/15 @ Bucknell

10/29 Holy Cross

11/5 @ Fordham

11/12 Lafayette

11/19 Georgetown

AGS Preseason Patriot League Prediction: 1st