Key Losses: DB DeQuinten Spraggins (Second Team All-OVC), WR Jeremy Harness, WR Janawski Davis
Key Returnees: QB KD Humphries (Second Team All-OVC), RB Roman Clay (Second Team All-OVC)
The Racers in 2015 led one of the fiercest air attacks in the FCS last year. Quarterback KD Humphries led the division in passing yards with 3778 yards and captained an offense that averaged 347 passing yards a game, second only to Eastern Washington and their All-American receiver Cooper Kupp. The Racers air raid attack was great for racking up yards but the Racers offense couldn’t make up for the defense’s shortcomings and the Racers finished 2015 with a 3-8 record.
The offense will take a hit as the Racers lose the receiving trio of Harness, Davis, and Rice. However they will be helped by a returning KD Humphries and a seasoned offensive line. Leading the rushing attack will likely be Ole Miss transfer Mark Dodson Jr. On defense the Racers only return one, Bishop Woods, on the defensive line but look for Rashad Johnson and Silas Owens to play a bigger role this season. T-Ray Malone and Joey Cicoria are big losses for the Racer’s linebacking corps but Lamont Crittendon and Jonathan Jackson look to answer the call. The Racers secondary losses impact player Shawn Samuels-Connell but remains otherwise untouched.
The Racers defense in 2015 allowed over 40 points to be scored by opponents in a game on 6 different occasions. KD Humphries has been playing great ball, but it will likely not be enough to make up for the loss of two of his favorite targets in Harness and Davis.
Schedule and Predictions: 3-8 (2-6 OVC)
L9/3 @ Illinois
W 9/10 vs. Missouri State
L9/17 @ Southern Illinois
L 9/24 vs Southeast Missouri State
W 10/1 @ Austin Peay
W 10/15 vs UT-Martin
L10/22 @ Eastern Illinois
L 10/29 vs Tennessee State
L11/5 @ Eastern Kentucky
L 11/12 vs. Jacksonville State
L11/19 @ Tennessee Tech
Expect KD Humphries to have to carry the Racers through the season. It looks to be another rough season for Racer fans. I may be being a bit harsh here, but with the loss of Harness and Davis the offense is going to take a hit. Not only that, but even if the defense gets better compared to last year that’s still not a great recipe for a winning season.
In only their first year of existence, head coach Brian Bohannon’s Owls turned out to be exactly who we thought they were. Behind a triple-option attack run by The Citadel transfer, QB Trey White, KSU easily handled their early “starter” opponents and were 4-1 with the only loss coming at eventual PFL champ Dayton when they met Gardner-Webb for their first-ever Big South conference matchup. Despite rolling up 350 yards of offense on the day, KSU could not get into the end zone and, even though they won the day 12-7, the physical toll of the season on the Owls very young team was beginning to show. They picked up another conference win at home against Monmouth but injuries and the inexperience of youth took their toll down the stretch. KSU lost four of their last five with only the season-ending at Presbyterian representing anything resembling a close game. Still, for a first-year program, the Owls performed well and should feel good about the upcoming season.
The good thing about having a ridiculously young team is that you pretty much bring everybody back the next year and Kennesaw is no exception. Graduation and attrition took a couple of guys off of the depth chart for 2016 but every single offensive starter and nearly every player on the offensive two-deep comes back. The shoulder injury that ended White’s season in 2015 seems to have healed and he returns for his redshirt senior season with what must be a sense of urgency for both he and the team. The Owls need White to survive if they want to achieve this season. Last year’s backup QB, Jake McKenzie, proved to be a capable athlete but he isn’t the dynamic on-field presence that White is. McKenzie has now changed positions and exited spring practice as the starting B-back for the Owls.
Nick Perrotta
Defensively, the picture isn’t quite as rosy for Kennesaw but it’s far from bleak. Last year, the Owls ran an aggressive scheme that capitalized on their young players’ athleticism and energy. It was fun to watch and, I’m sure, fun to play in but, at the same time, tended to give up more than a fair share of big plays. It will be interesting to see if Bohannon and defensive coordinator Brian Newberry keep the same focus as their roster matures. DT Nick Perrotta proved to be a significant presence up front and should provide some needed leadership there in his redshirt senior season. The Owls lost both starting ends on the defensive line as well as their starting Mike linebacker and starting field cornerback as well as a handful of depth players scattered across the defensive depth chart. These personnel losses aren’t extraordinary but a young team trying to build experience can’t afford to lose much.
On special teams, KSU lost a lot in the off-season. Primary kicker Justin Thompson had a decent year putting the ball through the uprights and he returns for 2016 but he appears to be the exception to the unit. The punter from last season is off of the current roster and Thompson appears to have been handed those duties. Further, the long snapper and primary kick returner from 2015 are gone as well. There is no word yet on whether or not Thompson will have to take over those jobs also.
The Crusaders,fresh off of being named one of the top 100 college football programs during the Associated Press Poll era, are looking to get back to those winning ways as it seems like 2009’s 9-3 season was decades ago. The low point came in 2012 when Tom Gilmore’s squad finished 2-9, but since then we’ve seen improvement each year as they’ve gone from 2 to 3 to 4 and finally to 6 wins last season. Outisde of the roster there’s reason to hope we see a break out year, should history repeate itself. Just a few short seasons before the 9-3 season in 2009 the Crusders were 1-11 and saw incremental improvement until exploding to the 9 win season.
Helping lead the charge is an explosive passing game, led by senior Peter Pujuols. Pujuols enters the season as a preseason all-conference selection after throwing for 3,195 yards with 28 touchdowns last season on a 129.1 efficiency rating and led the entire league in total offense. A quarterback, no matter how good, doesn’t put those numbers up without a stud target on the outside, and Pujuols has that in Brendan Flaherty. Last season Flaherty finished with 106 receptions for 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns, which landed him on multiple All American teams. He enters his senior season ranked first in receptions per game, and in the top 10 in career receptions. Even with that explosive passing game we must see an improved run game if the program wants to wins its 7th conference title. Gabe Guild returns as the teams leading rusher, bur finished with just 409 yards. The only other back to see more than a handful of carries was Diquan Walker, who totaled 309 yards last season. Yes, Pujuols added 319 yards of his own, but adding more depth to the run game will open up even more lanes for the potent passing attack.
What looks to be the biggest key for the Crusaders this season is getting consistent play out of the defense. At times last season the defense looked solid as they allowed 7 points or fewer 4 times – though it’s worth noting those games were against Georgetown, Bucknell, Lafayette and Albany. The other 7 games of the season the defense surrendered nearly 34 points per game. Even the explosive offense they possess wasn’t able to keep up with that kind of pace as the team was just 2-5 in those 7 contests. The top end talent is there – defensive lineman Dewayne Cameron and defensive backs Alim Muhammad and Luke Ford are all on the preseason All Patriot teams. Who steps in around them is key. The Patriot is full of offensive talent, and this Holy Cross team will only go as far as the defense takes them. As good as this offense is we don’t need a MVFC type defense for Holy Cross to potentially grab a playoff berth. If the defense can knock the average from 34 points per game in the 5 toughest match ups down to about 24 points per game I think we may see a playoff team.
Schedule
9/3 @ Morgan State
9/10 @ New Hampshire
9/17 @ Albany
9/24 Dartmouth
10/1 – @ Lafayette
10/8 Bucknell
10/15 Harvard
10/22 – Lehigh
10/29 @ Colgate
11/5 @ Georgetown
11/12 Fordham – Yankee Stadium
AGS Patriot League Preseason prediction: 4th place
Key Returners: Ben Folsom, Chad Newell, Gunnar Brekke, Mitchell Herbert, Tyler Bruggman, Mac Bignell, JP Flynn
Key Losses: Dakota Prukop, Beau Sandland, Luke Daly, Trace Timmer
Montana State will enter the season with a new head coach, Jeff Choate, who comes to the Bobcats from Washington where he was an assistant under Chris Pedersen. The Bobcats, 5-6 last season, will look to rebound under a new coach. Rob Ash was let go after last season, despite being one of the more successful coaches in Bobcat history. The Bobcats had probably hit their ceiling under Ash and needed a change if the Bobcats were ever going to make a deeper run into the playoffs. Choate brings a new attitude to the team, a little more fire and passion, whereas Rob Ash was known to be a bit of a wet noodle in regards to his personality. Also coming over to the Bobcats is former Montana defensive coordinator Ty Gregorak, who resigned his position at Montana.
The Cats will also be without quarterback Dakota Prukop who took his talents to Oregon, following in the footsteps of Vernon Adams the previous year. The Cats will have a big question mark at quarterback going into the season, a position that has been a strength for the Cats over the last few years.
The Bobcats finished third in FCS last season in total offense. They averaged 519 yards per game and were averaging 6.82 yards per play. That’s an impressive statistic on paper and resulted in a lot of points on the scoreboard for the Cats. The Bobcats averaged 303 yards per game passing last season, which was good enough for seventh in the country. The undoing of the Bobcats last year, and most years under Rob Ash was the lack of defense to keep the games from becoming a weekly track meet. The Cats defense was ranked 115th, giving up 472 yards per game. The Cats finished +10 in the touchdown category and were -2 in the turnover margin, which isn’t real terrible but a number that will need improvement.
The Bobcats’ biggest question heading into the season is who is going to play quarterback. The Cats have a transfer from Scottsdale Community College in Tyler Bruggman, and two redshirt freshmen, Ben Folsom and Brady McChesney. You’d have to think the reigns will be handed to the transfer until proven otherwise not fit for the job. Bruggman threw for 1692 yards and 19 touchdowns last season for Scottsdale Community College. Previous to playing at SCC Bruggman was a quarterback at Washington State. The Cats return two of their three top rushers from last season, Chad Newell and Gunnar Brekke, both seniors. Newell rushed for 831 yards and 12 touchdowns. Brekke rushed for 293 yards and one touchdown. Junior receiver Mitchell Herbert returns this season. Last season he caught 42 passes for 562 yards and eight touchdowns.
The Bobcats have a few weeks to get their feet under them before conference play starts. They’ll kickoff their season against Idaho, who is beginning the transition from FBS to FCS and will rejoin the Big Sky in 2017. You have to wonder what the state of the Idaho football team is knowing they are about to drop a subdivision in football. Will they be prepared to take on a young Bobcats team? From there the Cats have three in a row at home, with Bryant, Western Oregon, and North Dakota. They also have Northern Arizona at home, and Eastern Washington. Their schedule sets up nicely, but will they have the talent to win enough games for a playoff berth? Choate may be looking to do some roster overhauling, as well as trying to implement more of a defense-first type of team. This would be a change from the Rob Ash years. If the Cats can improve their defense and keep the offense functioning at a high level you have to think that the Bobcats would be a legit playoff contender in coming years.
9/1/2016 at Idaho
9/10/2016 Bryant
9/17/2016 Western Oregon
9/24/2016 North Dakota
10/1/2016 at Sacramento State
10/8/2016 Northern Arizona
10/15/2016 at Weber State
10/22/2016 Eastern Washington
11/5/2016 at Southern Utah
11/12/2016 UC Davis
11/19/2016 at Montana
Key Losses: RB Troymaine Pope (2015 Third Team All-American), DL Chris Landrum (2015 Third Team All-American), CB Jermaine Hough (2015 Third Team All-American)
Key Returnees: QB Eli Jenkins (2015 First Team All-American, FCS ADA 2015 QB of the Year), WR Josh Barge (2015 First Team All-OVC), C Casey Dunn (2015 Second Team All-American)
John Grass, the 2015 AFCA Coach of the Year, is entering his third year with the Gamecocks. Over the past two years Grass has amassed a record 23-4, led his Gamecocks to the FCS Championship game, led JSU to their first #1 ranking in school history, saw the highest average home game attendance in school history, and went undefeated in OVC play for back to back seasons. This year doesn’t look to disappoint either, but the road to return to Frisco won’t be an easy one for the Gamecocks.
The Gamecocks lose 15 starters but thankfully for the Gamecocks JSU will benefit from a deep roster and a deeper recruiting class. The Gamecocks’ recruiting list includes former 5-star Auburn running back Roc Thomas, who ran for 2,211 yards, 32 TDs, and averaged 9.8 YPC his senior year in high school. Who was the high school coach that allowed Roc to thrive in this fashion? None other than John Grass. The Gamecocks reload on offense, returning All-American quarterback Eli Jenkins, 4 starting offensive linemen, JSU’s All-time leading receiver Josh Barge, and bringing in Mr. Football Alabama 2013 Roc Thomas.
The 2016 edition of the Gamecock offense may actually be more potent than last year. 4 returning starting offensive linemen will help protect Eli Jenkins. Behind Jenkins in the backfield will be either Roc Thomas or Josh Clemons. Grass looks to use the two running backs as a key part of his offense as they both have very different running styles. Roc is an elusive back with an ability to make people miss and great hands which makes him a threat not only in the run game, but also in the passing game. Whereas Clemons is a bruiser of a back who likes nothing more than to put a defender on the ground. Whenever Jenkins isn’t handing the ball off he’s passing it to either preseason All-American receiver Josh Barge or 6’ 4” Anthony Johnson. Whenever Jenkins isn’t handing the ball off or passing it up for one of his receivers he’s running it himself. Versatility will be the cornerstone of the Gamecock offense. Part of what makes Grass’s offensive scheme so potent is the ability to attack defenses in so many different ways.
The Gamecocks defense also looks to reload after losing two All-Americans in pass rusher Chris Landrum (now with the San Diego Chargers) and CB Jermaine Hough. On the defensive line the Gamecocks return All-OVC DE Darius Jackson and DT Desmond Owino who split time with All-OVC DT Devaunte Sigler (now with the Pittsburgh Steelers). The secondary is where the Gamecocks have done a lot of work. Starting CB Jaylen Hill returns for his senior year and JSU has brought in Wazzou 3-star corner Pat Porter and SEC All-Freshman Al Harris Jr to help rebuild the secondary. Though the Gamecocks lost most of their starters on the defensive side of the ball they benefit from the depth they have from players coming back that spent significant minutes in games last year. Look for guys like EJ Moss to be among the new faces making plays for the defense this season.
Schedule and Predictions: 10-1 (7-0 OVC)
W 9/1 vs. North Alabama
L9/10 @ LSU
W 9/17 vs. Coastal Carolina
W9/24 @ Liberty
W 10/8 vs. Tennessee Tech
W 10/15 vs. Austin Peay
W10/22 @ Eastern Kentucky
W 10/29 vs. Eastern Illinois
W11/5 @ Southeast Missouri State
W11/12 @ Murray State
W 11/19 UT-Martin
Look for the Gamecocks to run the table once again in the OVC. They will find success through a reloaded roster and a great coaching staff led by John Grass. Their out-of-conference schedule includes a home game against Coastal Carolina and a trip to Liberty. I gave the nod to the Gamecocks over Coastal, not because homerism, but because of the home field advantage the Gamecocks have built over the past two years. Just ask KC Keeler about the atmosphere in Burgess-Snow when it’s boasting a near capacity crowd. Expect the Gamecocks to finish the regular season strong and seek a first-round bye for the playoffs.
In a year when the Patriot League is fully stocked at 60 scholarships, the Georgetown Hoyas enter the 2016 season short on depth and facing questions on offense.
The only FCS non-scholarship team playing in a scholarship conference, the Hoyas return just nine starters from last season’s 4-7 team, with its entire backfield having graduated last spring and just one senior returning on offense.
The Hoyas will have some early decisions at quarterback, where senior Tim Barnes is the favorite to succeed Kyle Nolan, who threw for 5,750 yards in his Georgetown career. By contrast, Barnes enters training camp this week with just one start over three seasons, passing for 79 yards last season. Georgetown will carry six QB’s onto its pre-season roster, so Barnes must earn his starting role.
Georgetown needs to replace its starting backfield, with Isaac Ellsworth (141 yds, 0 TD) and Alex Valles (130 yds, 1 TD) expected to challenge for a starting role. The Hoyas averaged just 97 yards per game on the ground last season, and will look to the positioning of senior tight end Matt Buckman (32-251-4), a pre-season All-PL selection, to help support the run effort. Senior Justin Hill (46 catches, 636 yds.) will carry the load as the only returning starter at wide receiver from last season.
Despite the scholarship imbalance, the Hoyas have traditionally held its own on defense, where linebackers Dan Yankovich (88 tackles in 2015) and Leo Loughery (84 tackles) anchor the Georgetown effort. Of concern will be in the secondary, where head coach Rob Sgarlata must replace three starters from a team that finished second in the Patriot in defense last season.
Three Georgetown players were named to the all-Patriot pre-season team: Matt Buckman, senior placekicker Henry Darmstadter and sophomore DB Jethro Francois.
Two Pioneer League and three Ivy League teams form the Georgetown non-conference slate before Patriot League play begins on Oct. 15. Georgetown will have to pick up wins early to challenge for a winning record, a mark which has only been reached once since the 2000 season. Georgetown was a promising 4-4 heading into the final weeks of the 2015 season, but dropped its final three games.
Georgetown was picked last in the 2016 pre-season Patriot League media poll, with its best chance for a win in-conference coming Oct. 29 at Lafayette, which was picked sixth in the seven team poll. Road games against pre-season favorites Fordham (Oct. 22) and Colgate (Nov. 19) appear prohibitive–the Hoyas have not won in the Bronx since the 1974 season and have never won at Colgate since joining the Patriot League in 2001. The Hoyas will play tough, however, and can be expected to do so again this season despite the obstacles ahead of them.
2016 Schedule (home games in CAPS):
09/03: DAVIDSON
09/10: at Marist
09/24: COLUMBIA (77th Homecoming Game)
09/30: at Harvard
10/08: PRINCETON
10/15: LEHIGH
10/22: at Fordham
10/29: at Lafayette
11/05: HOLY CROSS
11/12: BUCKNELL
11/19: at Colgate
Key Returners: Brady Gustafson, Caleb Kidder, John Nguyen, Yamen Sanders
Key Losses: Daniel Sullivan, Jamaal Jones, Ellis Henderson, Ben Roberts, Tyrone Holmes
The Montana Grizzlies got a new head coach last year and picked up right where they left off, back in the playoffs under new head coach Bob Stitt. The Griz, 8-5 last season, started their season with a thrilling last second win over North Dakota State in Missoula, and ended their season on the opposite side of that, a loss in Fargo to the Bison. The Griz are picked to finish second in the Big Sky this season, behind Northern Arizona. Montana will rely on a senior quarterback and a lot of wide receivers who saw limited playing time last season. They don’t return many starters from a defense that finished in the top half of FCS last season. Needless to say, there will be a lot of new faces on both sides of the football for the Griz.
The Griz finished 28th in the country in total offense, averaging 42.2 points per game. When Bob Stitt was hired at Montana he promised a fast paced, run as many plays as possible offense. The Griz were one of four teams to run more than 1000 plays last season. The Montana defense was 57th in the country last year, allowing 380 yards per game. The Griz were +4 in touchdowns last season. The Griz had a couple of puzzling losses last season, to Weber State and Cal Poly, that didn’t help their defense. Montana finished even on the turnover margin last season. Another wrinkle to the Bob Stitt offense was the number of times he went for it on fourth down last season. Montana went for it 38 times and converted 18 of those, good enough for a 47% success rate, 64th in the country. Only Colgate, Cal Poly, and Montana State went for it on 4th down as many times as Montana did last season. All three teams converted at a higher rate than the Griz.
The Griz return the preseason Big Sky defensive player of the year candidate, Caleb Kidder, on defense. Kidder finished last season with 82 tackles, ten tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks. The Griz will need to figure out how they are going to replace their three senior receivers who put up all-time numbers for the Griz. The graduation of Ellis Henderson, Jamaal Jones, and Ben Roberts might slow the Griz down as they will need to rely on a group of fairly green receivers to get them through the year. During spring football a few receivers made themselves known and could step up pretty quickly to help the passing attack. Senior quarterback Brady Gustafson returns this season looking to build on his Griz career. Last season Gustafson passed for 1984 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games for the Griz. Montana will return their top two rushers from last season, John Nguyen and Jeremy Calhoun. Nguyen rushed for 855 yards and three touchdowns. Jeremy Calhoun 291 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Griz schedule has them playing at home once before October, a home contest with Saint Francis. They will travel to Northern Iowa and Cal Poly. Other highlights feature trips to Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington, as well as a home contest with Montana State in the annual Brawl of the Wild. The schedule should set them up nicely for a playoff seed if they can take advantage of the teams on their schedule. Getting through Northern Iowa on the road is going to be a tall task for the Griz, a team that could legitimately win the Missouri Valley. The potential Big Sky game of the year could be the October 22nd date the Griz have in Flagstaff to take on Northern Arizona. That game could very well determine who the Big Sky sends to the playoffs as an auto-bid.
9/3/2016 Saint Francis
9/10/2016 at Northern Iowa
9/24/2016 at Cal Poly
10/1/2016 Southern Utah
10/8/2016 Mississippi Valley State
10/15/2016 Sacramento State
10/22/2016 at Northern Arizona
10/29/2016 at Eastern Washington
11/5/2016 Idaho State
11/12/2016 at Northern Colorado
11/19/2016 Montana State
Key Returnees: RB Michael Fredrick, RB Trevor Bouma, WR Brandt Van Roekel, DB Tyson Graham
Key Losses: DL Andrew Van Ginkel, DL Drew Iddings, LB Keye Lage, WR Eric Shufford, LB Ryan Hillier, DB Micheal Lilly
Can Bob Nielson bring his magic over of WIU?
For the first time as a MVFC program the Coyotes are heading into the season without Joe Glenn at the helm. Glenn stepped aside during the off season and in came a proven commodity in Bob Nielson. Not only is Nielson a proven commodity, USD grabbed from a conference rival in Western Illinois. Nielson took WIU from a downward spiral and led them to the playoffs last season and developed a roster full of talent. So while it’s never fun to break in a new coach, especially in the MVFC, it helps to have it be a guy who knows the conference and has proven he can do it. Glenn went just 12-34 in his time with USD in the MVFC, including just 6-26 in conference play. I know I catch a ton of flak from USD fans on our forums for what I’ve said about USD, but they are now out of excuses moving forward. They have a coach that’s proven he can recruit and win at a place where it’s difficult. If ever there was a time for optimism in Vermillion, it’s now. Just how high should we have expectations right now though?
Will Seager keep his job or does Streveler fit Nielson better?
While Nielson is stepping into a program that has been at/towards the bottom of the MVFC every season, he isn’t stepping into a place devoid of talent. Nielson developed two quarterbacks at WIU that had all conference potential, and he stepped in with Ryan Saeger going into his senior season looking to change the tune around Coyote football. Saeger started all 11 games at quarterback for USD last season going 165-299 for 1,984 yards. Saeger finished 4th in the conference last year in yards passing per game, but was 10th in efficiency. Part of that is he had just 12 touchdowns and 7 picks. In order for USD’s offense to take a step towards getting into a middle of the pack team that has to improve. Due to the inconsistencies, and Seager’s strengths not matching what Nielson wants to do on offense don’t be shocked to see newcomer Chris Streveler take the job. Streveler transferred in from Minnesota this off season. Streveler had an offer from South Dakota State coming out of high school and seems to fit the same type of mold that Jackrabbits QB Taryn Christion fits. He appears to still be more mobile than what Nielson is used to working with, but has the arm talent to fit Nielson’s system better than Seager might.
Brandt Van Roekel
Fortunately for whoever is taking the snaps Brandt Van Roekel (33-518-6) is back and will anchor the outside. Outside of Brandt though, we see a drop. Gone is leading receiver, Eric Shufford (45-470-2). Gone is 4th leading target, Nick Meyer (16-208-1). Only one returning receiver had more than 15 catches, TE Aaron Ramsey (17-204-1). That isn’t a sign the talent is low, it is partially due to the style of offense USD has ran the last few years. There hasn’t been a strong need for a roster full of wide receivers putting up numbers. It will be interesting to see if Nielson brings his system, which is much more reliant on the pass, and tries to implement it right away. If so he will need guys to step up, and it will have to be someone we don’t know much about right now. There are currently only 5 wide receivers listed on USD’s roster and outside of Brandt none had more than 5 catches last season.
The smart thing may be to use this year to build on one of the things USD has done relatively well since they joined the conference, run the ball. Michael Fredrick burst on the scene last year running for 622 yards as a true freshman last season, though he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Fredrick got his change because of an injury to Trevor Bouma, who broke his arm against NDSU. Bouma had 435 yards and 6 TD through the first 6 games, and was doing so at 6.0 yards per carry. Add in Ryan Saeger’s 350 yards and you’ve got a dangerous group. USD needs to get better run block though, as as a team they averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year.
Who steps up to replace Lage and Van Ginkel?
The issue for the ‘yotes, especially last year, wasn’t that the offense was bad, though it wasn’t great. The offense was put into situations they weren’t comfortable with as the defense gave up 26 points per game last season and gave up, at least, 30 points 6 times last season. While USD gave up points last year they did manage to rank in the middle-ish, of the pack in most statistical categories. Sadly for USD, Nielson hasn’t been known for defensive prowess at WIU. On top of that he takes over a team that lost a kid that may have had DPOY potential when Andrew Van Ginkel transferred. Van Ginkel is a huge loss as he finished 3rd in National Freshman of the Year voting last season, was MVFC Newcomer team, and lead the conference in TFL. Last season the Leatherneck defense ranked below USD in points per game, rushing defense, pass defense, sacks, 1st downs given up, 3rd downs conversion rate, and total defense. The worrisome thing when combining the loss of Van Ginkel and Nielson’s history with defense is there isn’t a ton of “top end” talent back for USD on defense. In terms of returning stats, USD returns the least in the conference. Guys like DB Tyson Graham, LB John Wessel and DB Jacob Warner are solid players to build a defense on, but there are a lot of question marks after those three as only one other returner had at least 25 tackles – DL Colin Merlik with 38.
Prediction:
9/1 @ New Mexico – L 0-1 (0-0)
9/10 Weber State – W 1-1 (0-0)
9/17 @ North Dakota – W 2-1 (0-0)
10/1 @ Youngstown State – L 2-2 (0-1)
10/8 Northern Iowa – L 2-3 (0-2)
10/15 @ Indiana State – L 2-4 (0-3)
10/22 Illinois State – L 2-5 (0-4)
10/29 Western Illinois – L 2-6 (0-5)
11/5 @ Southern Illinois – W 3-6 (1-5)
11/12 @ South Dakota State – L 3-7 (1-6)
11/19 North Dakota State – L 3-8 (1-7)
I can hear the screams from USD fans already. I can already hear the things USD fans on AGS would/will type as a reply: “Something about jealous of Hawkeyes”, “Scared that USD is the sleeping giant coming for UNI”, etc… Settle a bit, USD fans. I see a future at USD that I didn’t with Glenn at the helm. I think USD is going to be better than that in terms of competitive level, I just don’t see the record showing it this year. I won’t be shocked at all to see USD beat UNM, YSU, Indiana State, Illinois State or Western Illinois. If YSU and ISUb were home games, I give USD the nod. I want to give USD more wins, I really do. Much like how I came to UNI’s record a few days ago, I have to predict based on who I think has the better chance to win and this year USD falls on the wrong sie of that. I’d be surprised to USD beat UNI, but it won’t catch me completely off guard. I won’t be shocked to see USD at 5 or 6 wins. I think 5-6 with 3 or 4 conference wins is realistic this year. I think they have good talent at the top, I just don’t think they have depth right now. Nielson will bring that, at least on offense. For the first time I actually think USD had a bit of a future to look forward too, assuming Nielson isn’t poached if he has success. I just don’t like how the schedule sets for for USD this year. Flip a couple home/road games and move a game from early to MVFC play to late and I’d predict this different. I don’t think you’re MVFC title bound anytime soon, but I think Nielson can get USD to fighting for a playoff spot, like he did with WIU, before this years freshman class graduates.
Gardner-Webb’s 2015 campaign had a few bright spots – the brightest certainly being their upset win over a ranked Liberty team – but, on the whole, inconsistent play forced their season into a slow boring descent toward winter.
Things started off reasonably well as G-W took a second-half lead in their opener against FBS South Alabama. Despite ultimately losing the game, the Runnin’ Bulldogs played well and the general outlook for the year looked pretty good. Then came an absolute quagmire of a home opener against Elon in which neither team scored more than seven points in regulation and which Gardner-Webb would, again lose. This was followed by a close 13-9 win – but still a win – against Division II afterthought Virginia Union. Following a shutout loss to an average Wofford squad and a week off, the Bulldogs team finally showed a jolt of life against 15th-ranked Big South enemy* Liberty, managing to pull off their first win against LU since 2006. This moment of euphoria, however was short-lived as Gardner-Webb promptly went and laid an egg the next week at Kennesaw State. This pattern would repeat itself over the next five weeks as the G-W team would manage to lose in depressing fashion then pull out a win before losing yet again. The end result was a 4-7 record and a nice break at Thanksgiving. It should be noted that the nice break at Thanksgiving would have happened regardless as the NCAA had banned GWU from the postseason due to low APR scores.
*(I defend my use of the term “enemy” and not something more usual like “rival”. On average, Gardner-Webb fans hate Liberty and I use THAT term in the definitive sense. This could be due to historically religious and denominational similarities between the two schools. It could be due to the fact that a fair number of current and former athletic administrators and coaches at Gardner-Webb were, at one time, athletic administrators and coaches at Liberty. Either way, the hostility is real although it generally only flows one direction from south to north. As I walked out of last year’s game, the GW student walking in front of me, weeping with joy, called her mom to tell her that their team had “just beat Liberty” and, for her part, dear ole Ma on the other end of the line was none too quiet about her happiness either.)
The 2016 season could see quite a few changes for Gardner-Webb. The defense was reasonably strong, however, graduation cost G-W every starter on the defensive line, including All-American nose guard OJ Mau. Chad Geter remains to anchor the linebacking corps but two of the four starters there are gone as well as both starting corners. In addition, defensive coordinator Randall McCray – and head coach Carroll McCray’s brother – who had been largely credited with the success of the Bulldog defense, departed at season’s end, ultimately ending up as the defensive coordinator at Texas State.
On the other side of the ball, the offense was, largely, a hot mess. Except for one glorious night, Tyrell Maxwell was wildly erratic at quarterback and the offense struggled to even approach the red zone let alone score. In June, QB Ramsey Rigby transferred into the G-W program after spending just the 2016 spring semester at Troy and, if nothing else, should certainly provide the position with some competition. At running back, leading non-QB rusher Bobby Clark is gone to graduation, leaving behind him a pile of question marks at the position. On the offensive line, multi-year starters Dylan Hopper and Matt McAlvin are gone; however, they will be getting a little FBS help up front as, after a long battle with pancreatitis, Rigby’s teammate* at Troy, Blake Hudson, has followed his QB to the bright lights of Boiling Springs. TE Mike Estes was far and away the best receiver on the roster last year, catching five of the team’s seven total receiving touchdowns and, at 29 catches, nearly one-third of the team’s total receptions. While Estes’ value to the Bulldogs cannot be overstated, when one player represents nearly by himself the entirety of the downfield passing attack, it’s not necessarily a positive. When that player is a tight end, it pretty much becomes a negative.
*(Hudson and Rigby seem practically joined at the hip. They were not only teammates at Troy but also teammates just down the road at Elba High School. Both graduated high school and enrolled at Troy at the mid-year and both left the program for Gardner-Webb after one semester.)
The kicking game for G-W was average at best but, at least, it was consistent. K Paul Schumacher and P Andrew Komornik both return for what should be more of the same.
Key Returners: Michael Sanders, Hayden Stout, Jakori Ford, KW Williams
Key Losses: Xavier Finney, Madison Mangum, CJ Hatchett, Erik Collins, Kurt Karstetter
The Idaho State Bengals had a pretty rough year last year. They finished the season at 2-9 last season and the media isn’t picking them to be much better than that this year, finishing 11th in the preseason poll. The Bengals do return some talent to their team this year, receiver KW Williams, running back Jakori Ford, quarterback Michael Sanders, and linebacker Hayden Stout. There are some talented players on this team, however, their success has been incredibly limited over the last few seasons. Mike Kramer’s team had a promising performance in 2014, finishing 8-4, however they took a pretty severe step backwards last season.
Idaho State finished 48th in total offense last season which is kind of respectable given their two win season. They were averaging 397 yards per game last season. However, a good offense can be easily outdone by a bad defense. Idaho State had a bad defense, finishing 111th in total defense, giving up 456 yards per game. You don’t win many football games when your defense gives up 100 more yards of offense than you can accumulate. The Bengals finished -19 in touchdown ratio last season. Having an offense that was as good as it was it’s just really hard to imagine that they finished so far in the negative on the touchdown category. That’s the sign of a really bad football team and not putting the ball away when you need to. The Bengals finished 119th in turnover margin last season, at -15. If you’re looking for a reason why things weren’t great in Pocatello you don’t have to read much more than this paragraph.
The Bengals offensive weapons should help this season at least keep a few of their games close. Quarterback Michael Sanders started eight games last season, throwing for 2131 yards and 21 touchdowns. He was a transfer from Scottsdale Community College. The Bengal running back Jakori Ford carried the ball for 450 yards and three touchdowns for the Bengals. He was the second leading rusher on the team last season. The Bengals second leading receiver from last season will also be back, KW Williams. He caught 684 yards worth of passes and seven touchdowns. Those three players will need to step up this year for the Bengals. Senior linebacker Hayden Stout is an outstanding linebacker from Meridian, Idaho. He led the team in tackles last season with 113, 52 were unassisted. He has been a three year starter for the Bengals and will be starting again this coming season.
With Mike Kramer being in his sixth season at the helm at Idaho State you have to think that at some point he’s going to have to start winning games or be shown the door. He has one eight win season to his credit in Pocatello, but a lot of 1-3 win seasons other than that. His seat has to be getting hot, despite the work he has put in to gut that program and rebuild it. Will he still be the coach of the Bengals in 2017? The defense is going to need to improve and the offense is going to need to keep rolling in order for this team to be any kind of successful. The Bengals need to be better at taking care of the football to help themselves. Being -15 in turnovers and being bad at defense are two things that will derail any team’s football season.
Idaho State’s schedule won’t be too easy, as they have a pair of FBS teams on their schedule, Colorado and Oregon State. Their conference schedule won’t be easy either as they’ll play Northern Arizona, Montana, Eastern Washington, North Dakota, and Southern Utah. That could be a pile of losses for the Bengals, but they get two of those five at home. The first hurdle they have to clear is something called Simon Fraser, a team from British Columbia. They’ll need that win to get their season any kind of momentum.
It’s going to be another tough season in Pocatello but if Mike Kramer can find a way to keep this team competitive in even the tougher games there might be room for him on the staff in 2017. If the Bengals suffer a lot of blowout losses it might be time for Kramer and his 16-40 record at ISU to seek other employment.
9/3/2016 Simon Fraser University (B.C.)
9/10/2016 at University of Colorado
9/17/2016 at Oregon State University
9/24/2016 Sacramento State
10/1/2016 at Portland State University
10/15/2016 at Northern Arizona University
10/22/2016 University of North Dakota
10/29/2016 Southern Utah University
11/5/2016 at University of Montana
11/12/2016 at Eastern Washington University
11/19/2016 Weber State University
