The FCS Wedge

Week 0 Big South Preview

Submitted by Libertine

Charleston Southern @ North Dakota State (Saturday, Aug. 27th – 7:30pm – ESPN)

Well, college football is finally back as Charleston Southern travels to North Dakota State to kick off the first game in the country of the 2016 season. Oddly enough, it will not be the first game to kick off outside the country as Hawai’i and Cal will line up against each other in Sydney, Australia the night before. However, for the sake of discussion as it pertains to FCS, this is the primo inaugural catalytic event that football fans across the country have been waiting for. Granted, the ESPN broadcast will more than likely quickly devolve into the commentators talking about Alabama or Baylor for three hours but the important thing is that we will be witnessing live meaningful football. Indeed, our long national nightmare is over.

Seeing as how I’m writing this from the Big South perspective, I’m not going to hash out NDSU here. No offense intended toward the Bison but that’s something that’s already been done to death on AGS and, by now, everybody in the world of football knows about NDSU, they of the five straight national titles and the breeding ground of this year’s 2nd overall draft pick in the NFL. Rather, I’m going to come at this from the viewpoint of a Big South watcher and a person who is roughly familiar with the Charleston Southern program. There aren’t many of us, comparatively speaking, so I’ll try to provide the best insight I can.

Importance — Is this the most important game in CSU football history? That’s hard to say. There have certainly been more meaningful games in terms of implications for the season and most of those have come recently. Beating Coastal and Liberty in 2015 meant CSU’s first win over a top-ranked program as well as CSU’s first and only outright conference title, respectively. Beating The Citadel in the playoffs marked CSU’s first postseason win and the first time they had beaten the same school twice in one season. Still, none of those games were carried live on the ESPN flagship channel. While it’s unlikely that a game played in August will have vital impact on the overall arc of the season, there have never been more eyes on the CSU program than there will be this Saturday. How often does a tiny religiously-affiliated liberal arts university nestled in the back corner of North Charleston, South Carolina get a chance to put itself in front of millions on a national stage? Still, it’s just one football game with a lot more to be played after it. Yes, the game is of massive import to Charleston Southern University as a whole and to the relatively small number of people who call themselves Buc fans. Can the CSU players and coaches put that pressure aside to just play the game? We’ll find that out for certain on Saturday.

CSU history – This game will mark a number of firsts for the CSU program. This is obviously the first time that CSU will play on the ESPN flagship and will also be their first meeting with NDSU. On top of that, this will be CSU’s first meeting with any team from the Missouri Valley Football Conference. On top of that, this will be CSU’s first meeting with any FCS team hailing from west of the Mississippi River. In fact, aside from two trips to Hawai’i, the only game “out west” that CSU has ever played was a 2013 visit to Colorado that came about because that year’s CU-Fresno State game was cancelled due to flooding. In those three games, (granted they were all three FBS paycheck games) CSU was outscored 175-27. This will also be CSU’s first game indoors since a 55-7 loss at ETSU back in the year 2000. That said, CSU broke in a number of firsts for their program last season (first outright conference title, first top 10 ranking, first home playoff game, first playoff win, etc.,) and they’ll try to continue that trend going into 2016.

What does CSU have to do to beat NDSU? – Pray. No, seriously, pray. The Bucs will need some genuine supernatural ‘Angels in the Outfield’-type machinations to win this and a heaping dose of dysentery sweeping through the NDSU locker room wouldn’t hurt either.

On a less ethereal plane, CSU doesn’t match up well up front on either side of the ball. However, CSU is used to this and has built their team accordingly. Their defense is designed to rely on speed and aggression to the ball as opposed to any semblance of girth. On the ground, the Bucs will try to minimize their size disadvantage by getting more hats to the football than the Bison can block. You’ll see a lot of pre-snap movement from the CSU linebackers, shifting gaps in order to confuse the calls along the NDSU offensive line. You’ll also see a lot stunting along the defensive line mixed in with a ton of blitzes. I mean to say that CSU will blitz a lot. The Luftwaffe didn’t blitz London in 1940 like the CSU defense is going to blitz this Saturday. They’ll send guys from every conceivable angle and position, leaving whole areas of the field undefended and counting on the athleticism of their back four to cover what will, inevitably, be thrown over the heads of their front seven. Against a young team – even one the size of NDSU’s – that would be a passable plan but it’s unlikely to faze a group as seasoned as the Bison. On offense, CSU has to – as in, absolutely must – get big plays. Jamey Chadwell’s leadership style is laden with motivational gimmicks that include everything from dressing up like Bear Bryant to having the word “CHIP” printed on the shoulders of last year’s CSU team t-shirts. For good or bad, the Bucs team feeds on that attitudinal energy. They play best when they’re playing well and nothing fuels that aggressively passive-aggression like big plays. On the other hand, nothing starves them like getting bogged down offensively and falling behind. For CSU to be effective on offense, they have to keep NDSU guessing and, when the Bison guess wrong, capitalize in a big way. On special teams, CSU’s kicker has a medium-sized leg at best so their most potent weapon is Darius Hammond returning kickoffs. Unfortunately, if you’re returning kickoffs, it usually means that the other team has just scored and you need to catch up. Still, those kickoff returns can and have provided the big play energy I alluded to earlier.

Best case scenario for CSU – The game turns into a shootout and the Bucs score last. The ESPN cameras capture the CSU sideline having a lot of fun.

Worst case scenario for CSU – The Bison put a cloven hoof on the Bucs’ neck early and keep it there. The ESPN cameras capture the CSU sideline in full PTSD mode.

My prediction: NDSU by four scores

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Monmouth

*Preview courtesy of Libertine on AGS

Based on 2015, Monmouth should have been the dark horse pick to make some noise in the Big South this year. Having swapped out virtually their entire offensive personnel and schemes, the Hawks got off to a slow start losing to Holy Cross, Central Michigan and Fordham, picked up an early win against NEC also-ran Bryant and then got destroyed 37-7 by eventual Big South champ, Charleston Southern. But, the season turned on a dime for the Big South team from New Jersey when they ground out an OT win against a ranked Liberty squad and forced Coastal to beat them on a walk-off FG. Two “character” wins to close out the year left Monmouth with a lot to build on for 2016. In this case, Monmouth is building on it literally. At season’s end, the Monmouth administration made an announcement that Kessler Field would undergo a near-total renovation and expansion that will bring seating up to 4,200 seats.

1909490_45394388313_3766_n — Lavon Chaney

On paper, anyway, Monmouth looks very promising on offense. Despite losing three starters on the offensive line and massive athlete, TE Hakeem Valles, the Hawks bring back nearly all of their rushing and receiving yardage from last season, most notably in the form of RB Lavon Chaney. On top of that, they bring back perhaps the most important piece in rSo quarterback Cody Williams. Williams started out his first season as a college football player on an off note but, as the year went on and he started every game, he found his stride and ran the Monmouth with efficiency.

On defense, Monmouth took a big graduation hit at linebacker, losing two of their three starters. However, both the secondary and defensive line not only remain largely intact from a year ago but will also get back all-conference performer DE Darnell Leslie back from the injury that cost him all of 2015.

However, all this optimism for the program could very well be the thing that undermines the promise of the 2016 season. Due to the long sought-after (and completely necessary) construction on Monmouth’s home stadium, the Hawks will play a grand total of three home games in 2016. Playing a normal slate of five or six away games is hard on both the bodies and the minds of players as well as coaches. That’s as it should be since playing on the road is supposed to be hard. Eight road games with almost no break in between, however, is less like a challenge to overcome and more of an ordeal to endure. Putting forth consistent effort and performing at a high level with a sense of purpose will take an extraordinary effort on the part of the team and head coach Kevin Callahan.

The schedule:

@ Lehigh (9/3)

@ Delaware State (9/10)

@ Kent State (9/17)

Charleston Southern (9/24)

Fordham (10/1)

@ Howard (10/8)

@ Presbyterian (10/13)

@ Liberty (10/22)

Kennesaw State (10/29)

@ Coastal Carolina (11/5)

@ Gardner-Webb (11/19)

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Lehigh

2015 Results: 6-5 (4-2)
Returning starters:
Offense 8
Defense 8

Lehigh had its worst season in 22 years in 2014 when they bottomed out at 3-8. They responded last year by getting back to a winning season and competing for the Patriot League title despite a historically bad defense. There’s reason to believe things are still trending up when you look at the amount of experience returning on both sides of the ball combined with having four full scholarship classes to build in depth. Lehigh figures to once again challenge for the PL title and playoff spot on their offense alone. It’s no secret the defense will ultimately determine if they take the next step or are still chasing Colgate and Fordham.

By all accounts the offense should be among the best in FCS. There is talent and experience at every level. The offensive line returns two preseason first team all-league. There’s a 3 year starter at quarterback, a 1,000 yard rusher as a freshman, at RB and a preseason 1^st team all-league WR with a potential NFL future. There is depth at every position including QB. Some really like Sophomore QB Mayes because he has a cannon for an arm. The unit averaged 32 points per game and 462 yards a game last season. The game plan is to get guys in space. Lehigh has very good team speed at the skill positions. Yet, they haven’t as a group, to this point at least, produced a ton of big plays. Part of the reason is the lack of a down the field passing attack. It’s not a QB strength and the OC doesn’t really call deep routes. The other factor is protecting the defense but controlling T.O.P the best they can. If Shaf is able to get better with throwing the ball downfield the offense will be insanely difficult to defend. As it is, it’ll still take a top shelf unit to keep it contained. Villanova will be a great test given how well they’ve handled Fordham recently.

There really isn’t any adjective to describe just how bad the defense has been. Last year was the most points allowed EVER by a Lehigh defense, 388 (35 ppg). Offenses averaged 452 yards against the Mountain Hawk defense. They gave up 50 points on 3 separate occasions (JMU, Princeton, Fordham). Allowed 49 to Colgate in a 49-42 loss which help decide the PL title. The inability to create turnovers and create negative plays has been a huge problem. Last year was Lehigh’s Defensive Coordinator’s second season back in the role. He was previously the DC at Lehigh in ’98 and ’99 (Lehigh won the PL both years and went a combined 22-3). He instilled a 3-3-5 scheme before last year. The scheme this year will remain but with a lot more attacking principles. The one saving grace is there was an absolute lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball in 2013 and 2014. The defensive line was extremely undersized and had no depth. The linebackers were, at-best, adequate in size and lacked depth. Those two things have been addressed. This will easily be Lehigh’s most formidable defense in terms of measurables and depth since 2012. Outside of getting bigger they must force more turnovers (8 fumble recoveries and 5 INT’s all of 2015) and more negative plays. The forced turnover number has been sub-par for the last 3 years. Spring practice was built around installing a far more aggressive version of the 3-3-5. Its effectiveness and position reshuffling will determine how much the defense improves.

Schedule

9/3 Monmouth

9/10 @ Villanova

9/17 @ Penn

9/24 Princeton

10/1 @ Yale

10/8 Colgate

10/15 @Georgetown

10/22 @ Holy Cross

10/29 Fordham

11/5 Bucknell

11/19 @ Lafayette

AGS Patriot League Preseason prediction: 3^rd place

2016 Big Sky Preview: Northern Arizona

2015 Record: 7-4 (5-3)

Key Returners: Case Cookus, Emmanual Butler

Key Departures: Casey Jahn, Dejzon Walker, RJ Rickert, Alex Holmes

The Lumberjacks are coming off of a pretty good season, finishing the year at 7-4 and just missing the FCS playoffs. A crushing season ending loss to conference champion Southern Utah ended their chance at a playoff spot. There’s a lot to look forward to if you’re Jerome Souers and the Lumberjacks. They’re returning the FCS freshman of the year as well as an FCS All-American. If that doesn’t pack people in the Walkup Skydome I don’t know what will. The media has picked the Lumberjacks to win the conference this coming season. Souers was able to keep his team from having their annual October letdown and keep them in the thick of the playoff race throughout the season. Souers will be looking to get the Lumberjacks into the playoffs for the first time since 2013 where they were defeated by South Dakota State.

The talk around Flagstaff is the reigning FCS freshman of the year, a quarterback named Case Cookus. He’s pretty good at the quarterbacking. As a freshman last season he threw for 3111 yards and 37 touchdowns against only five interceptions. His completion percentage was 68.9%, playing in all 11 games. He finished 11^th in passing yards in FCS last season, and second in passing touchdowns. Those are impressive stats. Also returning is his favorite target from last season, FCS All-American Emmanuel Butler. Butler caught 1208 yards worth of passes and 15 touchdowns. He averaged 109 yards per game. With these two returning it seems like the NAU offense should be in good shape. However, the receiving corps behind Butler are a little thin after graduating three seniors. They will rely on guys who probably haven’t had as much playing time. Will this have an impact on Cookus? You might think he would go through a sophomore slump given that they will be breaking in inexperienced wide receivers. The rushing attack will see a mostly new face this season after senior Casey Jahn graduated. Jahn ran for over 1000 yards last season. Replacing him will likely be Corbin Jountti or Kendyl Taylor. Jountti rushed for six touchdowns last season.

The Lumberjacks finished 11^th in total offense last season averaging 470 yards per game. The NAU passing attack finished at eighth in the country averaging 303 yards per game. Their rushing attack was nothing to scoff at either. However, I hate to keep beating this dead horse, the NAU defense was ranked 116^th in the country last season. They were +3 in the touchdown ratio. The defense gave up 474 yards per game last season. Three times last season their defense gave up more than 40 points including 77 to Arizona. The Jacks have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball if they want to win this conference. The Jacks were -2 in the turnover margin, tied with Northern Colorado at 75th in the country.

This year’s schedule is a nice balance for the Jacks. They’ll open up the season on the road at Arizona State then head east for a game against Western Illinois. Their home schedule highlights include Eastern Washington, Montana, and Southern Utah at home. If they can manage to win those games they will win the conference. That seems like a really tall task for this team given that they will see some halfway decent defenses in Montana, Weber State and North Dakota. Their offense will need to be clicking in those contests for them to be wins. They can’t afford any stumbles though, the conference will be a log jam at the top, much like it was last season.

Sep 3, 2016   at Arizona State
Sep 10, 2016   at Western Illinois
Sep 17, 2016   New Mexico Highlands
Sep 24, 2016   Eastern Washington
Oct 1, 2016   at Northern Colorado
Oct 8, 2016   at Montana State
Oct 15, 2016   Idaho State
Oct 22, 2016   Montana
Nov 5, 2016   at Weber State
Nov 12, 2016   at North Dakota
Nov 19, 2016   Southern Utah

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Lafayette

2015 Results: 1-10 (0-6)
Returning starters:
Offense 10
Defense 7

The 2016 Leopards are one of the prime examples of “Good news, everyone returns. The bad news is, every one returns.” After 16 seasons some fans may be feeling the second part of that statement about the coaching staff. Frank Tavani took over a program, at the turn of the century, that had been struggling for quite some time and looked to have “fixed” it. By year 3 he had them at 7 wins. Between 2004 and 2009 there was not a losing season and had three 8 win seasons. Then, the wheels fell off. Yes, there was a conference title in 2013, but Lafayette finished that regular season 5-6. There are “reasonable excuses” for dropping to 1-10 last season. As one AGS poster reminded me, the ‘pards suffered “A biblical scourge of injuries devastated Coach Tavani’s squad last year.”. Even with that, there needs to be improvement this year. However, as I said to open the article, the upside is we see many players back that got experience last season, due to the injuries, that likely would not have seen the field last year otherwise.

Senior quarterback, Drew Reed, returns for his senior season looking to finish his career on the high it started. As a freshman he lead Lafayette to the conference title. He lost his sophomore season to injuries and struggled to show much consistency last season. To improve on the 1-10 mark from last season Reed must play better. The lone bright spot, as last season wore on, was running back DeSean Brown. Brown showed flashes of talent with 580 yards rushing yards, 877 all purpose yards, and 5 touchdowns last season. The rest of the offense has a year of game speed experience, which shoud help. The wide receiver group has talent, led by Joey Chenowith, who lead the team with 46 receptions for 389 yards and Matt Mrazek who finished second with 44 catches for 495 yards. The offensive line can go a long way in helping Reed regain his old form by keeping him upright. Last season he was planted 38 times, and ran for his life countless others.

I feel like a broken record with the Patriot League by saying “The offense has the talent if the defense can keep them close.” and Lafayette is no exception. Given what returns, Tavani should be able to field a solid tough defense. If nothing else he’s known for having fairly strong defenses, but that was far from the case last season as the Leopard defense gave up 35 points per game, including 49 at the hands of the archenemy, Lehigh, to close the season. We know that won’t sit well with anyone affiliated with that program. Brandon Bryant and Mike Root anchor the linebacker corps and the the secondary should be fairly solid with CB Parrish Simmons and Ss Draeland James and Kaizer Butler. The big key to make the defense better will be improving the pass rush. Last season the pass rush was non existent. Much like the key for the offense, the defensive line must get better on the line of scrimmage as last season they had just 9 sacks on the season.

Schedule

9/2 @ Central Connecticut State

9/10 – Delaware

9/17 – @ Princeton

9-24 – Villanova

10/1 – Holy Cross

10/8 – Fordham

10/15 @ Army (FBS)

10/22 @ Bucknell

10/29 Georgetown

11/12 – @ Colgate

11/19 – Lehigh

2016 Preseason AGS Poll Prediction: 6^th place

2016 Big Sky Preview: Northern Colorado

2015 Record: 6-5 (3-5)

Key Returners: Hakeem Deggs, Trae Riek, Jacob Knipp

Key Losses: Trevor Douglass, Jonathan Newsom, Sean Leslie

Northern Colorado saw some success last year, more so than they’ve had over the last few years. Was it a sign of the program turning around, or was it the chips falling into place at the right time? The Bears finished last season at 6-5 overall last season, one of their better seasons since joining the Big Sky conference. It could be argued that their schedule set them up for success, but perhaps they made some improvement at the same time? Earnest Collins is making strides with the Bears, but will the fan base give him patience? His record since taking over the Bears sits at 15-41. If it weren’t for his new 5 yr. contract I would say he needs to turn in another winning season if he doesn’t want to find himself looking for a job after the season is over. The Bears had one player make the preseason All-Big Sky team, however, he is a special teams player. Players from other disciplines will need to step it up for the Bears to continue their upward trend.

The Bears had a fairly strong offensive showing last season, finishing with the 57^th best offense in the country last year, in terms of yards gained per game. They finished with 384 yards per game and 45 offensive touchdowns. Like most Big Sky teams the Bear defense was a dumpster fire. Finishing at 121^st defensively that is good enough for third worst in the country and dead last in the Big Sky. The Bears gave up 497 yards per game and found themselves -7 in the touchdowns category. The Bears finished -2 in the turnover margin, good enough for 75th. How the Bears finished with a winning record was nothing short of amazing, but considering their schedule last year you have to think that playing a bit better defense would have gotten them into the playoff hunt.

Northern Colorado is returning their quarterback from last season, Jacob Knipp. He played in 10 games last season and threw for nearly 2000 years and 13 touchdowns. They also return their top rusher from last season, sophomore Trae Riek. Riek finished with 817 yards and seven touchdowns. He also had 349 yards receiving and two touchdowns. They also return their second leading rusher, Brandon Cartagena, who finished with 270 yards and three scores. Leading receiver, Stephen Miller also returns, who finished with 448 yards and five scores. The Bears have plenty of veteran players returning on offense, can they improve the defense enough to keep them in football games? As mentioned above, the a single UNC player found himself on the preseason watch list. Hakeem Deggs was named to the list after averaging 35.4 yards per kick return last season. Deggs should carve out some space at wide receiver this season.

The Bears schedule this season isn’t as forgiving as it was last year. They’ll face fellow Front Range school Colorado State, and also go through the buzz saw of Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, and Montana, plus a home date with North Dakota. All of those teams are picked to finish at the top of the conference. The Bears will need a few miracles if they want to come close to replicating the results of last season. There’s nothing certain on this schedule for Northern Colorado given their history in the Big Sky. There’s a very real possibility that they will only finish with a couple of wins. Will that mean the end of the road for Earnest Collins? It’ll be a question worth asking at the end of the season. The Bears will probably need five wins to keep in as the captain of the ship.

9/3   vs. Rocky Mountain
9/10   at Abilene Christian
9/17   at Colorado State
10/1   vs. Northern Arizona
10/8   at Eastern Washington
10/15   at UC Davis
10/22   vs. Sacramento State
10/29   at Portland State
11/5   vs. North Dakota
11/12   vs. Montana
11/19   at Cal Poly

2016 MVFC Preview: South Dakota State

The Jackrabbits may have been the unluckiest team the last few years, not because of bad breaks costing them games but because of the nature of how the FCS playoffs are structured. The Rabbits have had teams that, if they were out east, very well could have made a push to the semifinals or title game. However, thanks to regionalization and being one of just a handful of FCS teams west of the Mississippi River they have been fed straight into North Dakota State and Montana in three of their last four playoff trips. In order to avoid a rematch with their rivals to the north the belief is SDSU has to win enough to get seeded on the other side. I could argue that a win in the final week against Western Illinois last season may have accomplished that. Is this the year we see John Stiegelmeier get his Rabbits over that hump? There will certainly be the offensive firepower to get there.

Will SDSU settle on one or will it be musical QBs?

The biggest question I have for SDSU’s offense is: who is your quarterback? Thankfully, it’s a situation where they a proven quarterback, well two, and not like other MVFC teams are facing where there is no quarterback returning. From the outside it would seem that Zach Lujan *should* get have the edge. Over his two years on campus Lujan has completed 60% of his passes, thrown for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. The hang up from the fact that, filling in for an injured Lujan, last season Taryn Christion threw for 1,286 yards and 7 touchdowns while adding an extra dimension of running as he added 347 yards and 5 scores on the ground. Adding to the difficulty of figuring out which one to start is that Christion did what he did as a true freshman, which means Stiegelmeier burned Christion’s redshirt halfway through the season. Lujan also missed spring ball with another, yet another, injury. Whoever Stiegelmeier decides to go with he needs to make the choice and not waiver off of it. As a UNI fan I can attest, firsthand, to the old saying of “If you have two quarterbacks you have none”.

Wieneke is one the most most explosive players in the nation

Whoever is taking the snaps will have one of the two best pass catchers in the nation, Jake Wieneke. Last season Winieke hauled in 72 receptions for 1,472 yards and 11 scores last year. We all know about Jake. We all know the complete mismatch he is for every defensive back in the league. What we don’t know is what other receiver on the roster can make a play. There’s much speculation about a few freshmen that used their red-shirt last season, but there isn’t much in terms of returning numbers. All Conference tight end is second in returning receiving stats with his 26 catches, 494 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s a massive difference between the top two targets. Yes, Jake is going to get his numbers but is there anyone to take pressure off of him? Is there anyone to keep teams from rolling a safety over the top on every play? I’m not sure there is.

One thing that may keep opposing defenses from rolling extra help towards Wieneke is the run game. While not quite what Rabbit fans are used to with go to backs like Zach Zenner, Kyle Minette and Josh Ranek the trip of Brady Mengarelli (128-742-6), Kyle Paris (130-428-6) and Isaac Wallace (61-198-3) to go along with what Taryn Christion could bring to the ground and we still see a ground game formidable enough to keep most defenses honest. I know the stats that Lujan and Christion put up make it easy to call the passing game the strength of the offense going into the season, but with the depth that the running back group has I’d make the case that this is the strongest position group on the team.

Jesse Bobbit leads one of the nations most underrated defenses.

The best kept secret in Brookings last year was the defense. It was completely overshadowed by Wineke and the quarterback situation. Statistically SDSU’s defense ranked ahead of UNI and NDSU in a number of categories, which is saying something as they were considered the two best defenses in the nation. When push came to shove the other two were better, but the fact the Jacks defense was ranked with them is worth noting and I think they have a chance to repeat that kind of performance. Gone is all conference linebacker T.J. Lally, who was the team’s leading tackler with 102. Back, however, are 6 of the top 8 tacklers from last season and leading the charge is all conference linebacker Jesse Bobbit (97 tackles, 6 TFL, sack, INT, 7 pass deflections). The core of the defense is back, which is a great sign for the Jacks. It shows the depth that has been built, and allows the youngers guys one more year to get to college game speed. I still think this defense is behind UNI and NDSU, but is clearly the third best defense in the conference, and one of the best in the nation.

Prediction:

9/3 @ Texas Christian – L 0-1 (0-0)

9/10 Drake – W – 1-1 (0-0)

9/17 Cal Poly – W 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 Western Illinois – W 3-1 (1-0)

10/8 @ Southern Illinois – W 4-1 (2-0)

10/15 @ North Dakota State – L 4-2 (2-1)

10/22 Youngstown State – W 5-2 (3-1)

10/29 @ Illinois State – W 6-2 (4-1)

11/5 Missouri State – W 7-2 (5-1)

11/12 South Dakota – W 8-2 (6-1)

11/19 @ Northern Iowa – L 8-3 (6-2)

In most of these predictions I seem to list 4 or 5 games that I think are pure toss ups. With SDSU I feel pretty confident about the win loss record. I may have a game or two flopped, but record I’m pretty set on. I think 8-3 and fighting for a 7 or 8 seed feels right. I’m willing to listen to the idea that SDSU knocks off one of NDSU or UNI and drops a game to Illinois State or Youngstown State. I think 7-4 is a disappointment and anything worse puts Stig in a bad spot. Getting both NDSU and UNI on the road in the same year is a major hit to challenging for a conference title.

This feels like the year for SDSU to make their move to avoid NDSU in the playoffs. The playoff committee has “gotten rid of” the regionalization rule to some extent. The Jacks are going to be a top 10 program nearly all season. There will be as strong a case as ever for SDSU get get a more favorable path in the playoffs. Can the Jacks break in their gorgeous new home properly? It would be a damn shame if this stadium didn’t get a playoff game this year…

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Liberty

*Preview courtesy Libertine on AGS

Unequivocally, the biggest question mark in the Big South conference hovers over Liberty. After finally getting the playoff monkey off their back in 2014, the Flames entered 2015 with four senior All-Americans on the roster, some high expectations and a general sense of promise. While some of that promise was fulfilled in wins over top-10 FCS opponents Montana and Coastal Carolina and a road win over FBS bowl-bound Georgia State (which still feels weird to say out loud), those moments, like any item off of the Applebee’s lunch menu where the bread in an otherwise disappointing sandwich is easily the best part of the meal, surrounded bad losses on the road to Gardner-Webb, Monmouth and Southern Illinois.

In 2016, Liberty has to replace their top two rushers from the last three seasons, the all-time leading receiver in school history, the all-time leading passer in school history, the all-time leading sack leader in school and conference history and the all-time leading FG kicker of 50 yards+ in school, conference and national history. Yeah, that’s a lot. Still, while those personnel losses are obviously significant, they are pretty much the only significant losses and, particularly with the departure of Coastal Carolina to FBS, there is still enough talent waiting in the wings for Liberty to make a run at what would be a league-leading 8th conference title.

On offense, QB Stephon Masha had been the primary backup to Josh Woodrum for the last two season and now steps into the starter role. While Masha played sparingly in a wild-card role in 2015, he filled in for an injured Woodrum during Liberty’s 2014 playoff run, starting two games including a road upset of top-ranked Coastal Carolina. Masha will need to stay healthy and productive, however, as the two players behind him on the depth chart are talented true freshmen. Second-leading rusher from year ago, Todd Macon, returns to a backfield with three less seniors in it but is no less crowded. Prized recruit Frankie Hickson should see time after redshirting 2015 as will human bulldozer, Carrington Moseley. WR BJ Farrow returns from his breakout season a year ago as does slot Zac Parker. Up front, the Flames replace former-walk-on-turned-all-American Jon Burgess and German national Max Sommer with a now-healthy Lucas Holder and Norwegian national Ernst Anderson.

On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of sack artist Chima Uzowihe is hard to replace but Juwan Wells performed well enough in spot duty to get the nod for this season. At linebacker, Liberty lost their starting Mike to graduation but brings back virtually everyone else including standout weakside backer Nick Newman. In the defensive backfield, nearly everyone returns from last year’s two-deep returns for the Flames with only S Alpha Jalloh in their last year of eligibility.

On special teams, Liberty lost a major weapon to the NFL in the massive leg of John Lunsford. The threat of being able to score points from the midfield logo made defenses play LU a little differently than they otherwise might. The Flames will enter 2016 with true freshman, Alex Probert, at the placekicker position but return upperclassmen at the punter and long-snapper spots.

The Flames 2015 schedule was, on paper, difficult but, in reality, was more so as the schedule also featured a four-game road swing and caught five of the first six opponents immediately after an open week. This year’s has less of that.

The schedule:

@ Virginia Tech (9/3)

Jacksonville (9/10)

@ SMU (9/17)

Jacksonville State (9/24)

Robert Morris (10/1)

@ Kennesaw State (10/15)

Monmouth (10/22)

Gardner-Webb (10/29)

@ Presbyterian (11/5)

Charleston Southern (11/12)

@ Coastal Carolina (11/17)

2016 Big Sky Preview: North Dakota

2015 Record: 7-4 (5-3)

Key Returners: Cole Reyes, John Santiago, Keaton Studsrud

Key Losses: Zach Adler (TE), Miguel Cerriteno (WR), Will Ratelle (LB), Sean Meehan (OG) Brandon Anderson (OG) Elijah Grady (OT)

New year, new nickname for North Dakota. This year will be the maiden voyage of their new nickname after the university was forced to change its nickname. This year, and going forward, they will be called the Fighting Hawks. The Fighting Hawks name was voted on by what seemed like everyone in North Dakota and went through several rounds of pairing down to land on this nickname. Not sure why the Abominable Snowmen weren’t chosen, but we’ll have to live with this. Head coach Bubba Schweigert will look to build on the success of last season and carry it forward to this season. The Hawks finished 7-4 last season, barely missing the playoffs despite having a resume that could have gotten them in. A loss to Idaho State and Weber State likely was their undoing, despite finishing with a three game winning streak.

The Hawks return quarterback Keaton Studsrud who had a nice season, as well as sophomore running back John Santiago. Studsrud finished with 1262 yards and twelve touchdowns. He also rushed for 234 yards and three scores last season as well. Santiago rushed for 1459 yards last season with 16 touchdowns. An impressive year for a freshman running back. The Hawks weren’t all that effective through the air, but seemed to do just enough to win a few football games. Santiago, if he can continue his production this season, should be in the conversation for Big Sky player of the year on the offensive side of the ball. The Hawks will return their leading receiver from last season, Luke Stanley. Stanley had 312 yards and five scores. Junior defensive back Cole Reyes returns this season. He was a second team All Big Sky pick last season. He started in nine games and finished second in tackles with 71 tackles, 50 of those were solo.

The Hawks finished 62^nd in the country in total offense, averaging 379 yards per game. The Hawks finished 41^st in total defense, averaging 359 yards per game against. They were -1 in the touchdown ratio. The Hawks weren’t flashy by any means, but playing decent offense and good defense had them improving last season. John Santiago’s rushing yards were good enough for eighth in the country last season. If they can find a way to balance out the offense and work in more of a passing attack this team might be dangerous. The media has them picked to finish fourth in the conference. That’s not unreasonable for this team. Whether or not it gets them into a playoff game is another story.

The Fighting Hawk schedule doesn’t start particularly easy with road games at Stony Brook and Bowling Green. They’ll return home to play South Dakota and go back on the road to take on Montana State. The Hawks should get through October fairly unscathed but if they are scrapping for a playoff spot at the end of the season they are going to need to beat Northern Arizona at home to seal up that spot. If they don’t their fate could be in the hands of the playoff selection committee. Their schedule should set them up for seven wins, they will probably need to pull off another win in their schedule against either Stony Brook or Southern Utah, to get to eight wins to make sure they get a playoff spot. Their finale vs Northern Arizona at home should be a very good football game with playoff implications as well.

9/1   at Stony Brook
9/10   at Bowling Green
9/17   vs. South Dakota
9/24   at Montana State
10/1   vs. Cal Poly
10/8   at Sacramento State
10/15   vs. Southern Utah
10/22   at Idaho State
10/29   vs. Weber State
11/5   at Northern Colorado
11/12   vs. Northern Arizona

2016 MVFC Preview: Southern Illinois

2015 Record: 3-8 (2-6)

Key Returnees: RB Daquan Isom, WR Billy Reed, LB Chase Allen, LB Markese Jackson

Key Losses: QB Mark Iannotti, S James Kenny, S DJ Cameron, CB Ryan Neal

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Between 2003 and 2009 the Salukis were one of the biggest names in the nation. Jerry Kill build a program that went 70-19 with 5 conference titles over that time. Never once did they finish with less than 9 wins. Kill had the best of both worlds – a dynamite offense and a brick wall defense. Kill left after the 2007 season and in came Dale Lennon to ride the wave of Kill’s roster. The honeymoon quickly wore off as Lennon took one of the best programs in the nation and turned them into a “Yeah, they used to be good” type program. What’s the future hold for the Salukis and new head coach, Saluki legend, Nick Hill?

It’s a good thing Coach Hill knows the quarterback position as well as he does, as that is a major question mark for this season with the loss of Mark Iannotti, who was the best offensive player in the conference last season – I don’t care what the award lists said. Iannotti accounted for more yards than Missouri State (by a factor of two), South Dakota (by a full games worth of yards), and was about one half of football behind Indiana State….by himself. Hill has options as he has 4 quarterbacks on the roster, but only one has taken snaps at the D1 level, Matt DeSormer who spent more time at wide receiver and running back last season as he had 23 rushes, 10 receptions and just 3 pass attempts. The best option, that I can see, is a D2 transfer, Josh Straughan. In three seasons at Stillman College he completed 468 passes, for 5,470 yards and 53 touchdowns. He appears to be of the same type of mold that Iannotti had been, but even getting to half of Iannotti’s numbers is going to be tough given the offensive line. A large part of what made Iannotti great was his ability to make plays when nothing else was there.

The bright spot, and focus, for the Saluki offense this year will be running back Daquan Isom. Last season he was a second-team all conference selection as a return specialist and started 5 games at running back. He finished last season 10th in the conference in rushing yards per game, 7th in receptions per game, and ranked 7th nationally in all purpose yards per game. He has the speed and shiftiness to get the end-zone on every single touch. I have some concerns regarding him holding up over the course of a season given his size, 5’8 178 lbs. We’ve seen other backs that size thrive in the MVFC, specifically Shakir Bell from Indiana State, but even he ended up a couple series per game, to entire halves or games, due to the beating he took from being the feature back. There is a stable with 7 other running backs on the roster, but none have the game breaking ability of Isom. The loss of Iannotti could hurt here as well. Defenses had to react so hard to every move Iannotti make that it opened up cut back lanes for Isom to hit. It will be interesting to see how he develops this season. He also appeared to have issues with Dale Lennon towards the end of last season, that saw him suspended. Maybe Nick Hill moving into the HC role straightens those issues out.

Whoever is throwing the ball will have plenty of option to pick from at reciever as well as 8 of the top 10 from last season are back, including leading receiver Billy Reed who had 56 catches for 805 yards last season. The two that are gone are both tight ends, Josh Skadlenad (12 receptions) and Adam Fuehne (25 receptions). Perhaps the biggest gain the Salukis saw here is the granting of a 6th year to Israel Lamprakes, who lost 2011 and 2012 to injury. In 9 games last season he had 31 receptions for 381 yards. I know it’s easy to see how many guys are coming back and glance past this, but the leadership and knowledge that a guy like Israel can bring, and just added depth, can’t be overlooked.

This is where the positivity train ends for SIU. The defense at SIU the last few years has been horrendous, and last season was the low point for any SIU defense I remember seeing. If it wasn’t for all the attention Missouri State got for their historically bad defense last year more people would be aware just how awful the dawgs were on defense last season. While the offense scored 36.1 points and gained 498 yards per game the defense gave up 240 yards per game on the ground, 230 yards per game through the air, and 35 points per game. For those that don’t want to do that math that’s 468 yards per game given up. Yep, SIU had a historically good offense and their defense match it yard for yard and point for point. On the plus side, it really can’t get much worse here, right? The concern I have with Nick Hill is how he will fix the defense. He was a quarterback in college. He coached quarterbacks the last few seasons, he has limited to no defensive experience. He has made a smart hire in Kraig Paulson as defensive coordinator though. Paulson might be be known for his run at Montana where he made three national title games and produced multiple NFL defensive players. It’s not going to get better this year, or even next. Can Kraig get enough done to keep the trust of Hill to build a defense, given his starting point?

Schedule:

9/3 @ Florida Atlantic – L 0-1 0-0

9/10 Southeast Missouri – W 1-1 0-0

9/17 Murray State – W 2-1 0-0

10/1 @ Northern Iowa – L 2-2 0-1

10/8 South Dakota State – L 2-3 0-2

10/15 @ Illinois State – L 2-4 0-3

10/22 Indiana State – W 3-4 1-3

10/29 @ Missouri State – W 4-4 2-3

11/5 South Dakota – L 4-5 2-4

11/12 @ Youngstown State – L 4-6 2-5

11/19 Western Illinois – L 4-7 2-6

I really, really, want to give SIU the nod at FAU. I just don’t know the quarterback situation well enough to give it to them. SEMO could be a toss up, but barring another 6 INT performance from the SEMO defense I don’t see another loss. The only other game i could be talked into a Saluki win is South Dakota, but I think USD is a more rounded team and by that late in the season I think that’ll be a tough out for SIU. Better days may be a head for Saluki faithful, but I think they might be way a head.