The FCS Wedge

2016 MVFC Preview: South Dakota State

The Jackrabbits may have been the unluckiest team the last few years, not because of bad breaks costing them games but because of the nature of how the FCS playoffs are structured. The Rabbits have had teams that, if they were out east, very well could have made a push to the semifinals or title game. However, thanks to regionalization and being one of just a handful of FCS teams west of the Mississippi River they have been fed straight into North Dakota State and Montana in three of their last four playoff trips. In order to avoid a rematch with their rivals to the north the belief is SDSU has to win enough to get seeded on the other side. I could argue that a win in the final week against Western Illinois last season may have accomplished that. Is this the year we see John Stiegelmeier get his Rabbits over that hump? There will certainly be the offensive firepower to get there.

Will SDSU settle on one or will it be musical QBs?

The biggest question I have for SDSU’s offense is: who is your quarterback? Thankfully, it’s a situation where they a proven quarterback, well two, and not like other MVFC teams are facing where there is no quarterback returning. From the outside it would seem that Zach Lujan *should* get have the edge. Over his two years on campus Lujan has completed 60% of his passes, thrown for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. The hang up from the fact that, filling in for an injured Lujan, last season Taryn Christion threw for 1,286 yards and 7 touchdowns while adding an extra dimension of running as he added 347 yards and 5 scores on the ground. Adding to the difficulty of figuring out which one to start is that Christion did what he did as a true freshman, which means Stiegelmeier burned Christion’s redshirt halfway through the season. Lujan also missed spring ball with another, yet another, injury. Whoever Stiegelmeier decides to go with he needs to make the choice and not waiver off of it. As a UNI fan I can attest, firsthand, to the old saying of “If you have two quarterbacks you have none”.

Wieneke is one the most most explosive players in the nation

Whoever is taking the snaps will have one of the two best pass catchers in the nation, Jake Wieneke. Last season Winieke hauled in 72 receptions for 1,472 yards and 11 scores last year. We all know about Jake. We all know the complete mismatch he is for every defensive back in the league. What we don’t know is what other receiver on the roster can make a play. There’s much speculation about a few freshmen that used their red-shirt last season, but there isn’t much in terms of returning numbers. All Conference tight end is second in returning receiving stats with his 26 catches, 494 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s a massive difference between the top two targets. Yes, Jake is going to get his numbers but is there anyone to take pressure off of him? Is there anyone to keep teams from rolling a safety over the top on every play? I’m not sure there is.

One thing that may keep opposing defenses from rolling extra help towards Wieneke is the run game. While not quite what Rabbit fans are used to with go to backs like Zach Zenner, Kyle Minette and Josh Ranek the trip of Brady Mengarelli (128-742-6), Kyle Paris (130-428-6) and Isaac Wallace (61-198-3) to go along with what Taryn Christion could bring to the ground and we still see a ground game formidable enough to keep most defenses honest. I know the stats that Lujan and Christion put up make it easy to call the passing game the strength of the offense going into the season, but with the depth that the running back group has I’d make the case that this is the strongest position group on the team.

Jesse Bobbit leads one of the nations most underrated defenses.

The best kept secret in Brookings last year was the defense. It was completely overshadowed by Wineke and the quarterback situation. Statistically SDSU’s defense ranked ahead of UNI and NDSU in a number of categories, which is saying something as they were considered the two best defenses in the nation. When push came to shove the other two were better, but the fact the Jacks defense was ranked with them is worth noting and I think they have a chance to repeat that kind of performance. Gone is all conference linebacker T.J. Lally, who was the team’s leading tackler with 102. Back, however, are 6 of the top 8 tacklers from last season and leading the charge is all conference linebacker Jesse Bobbit (97 tackles, 6 TFL, sack, INT, 7 pass deflections). The core of the defense is back, which is a great sign for the Jacks. It shows the depth that has been built, and allows the youngers guys one more year to get to college game speed. I still think this defense is behind UNI and NDSU, but is clearly the third best defense in the conference, and one of the best in the nation.

Prediction:

9/3 @ Texas Christian – L 0-1 (0-0)

9/10 Drake – W – 1-1 (0-0)

9/17 Cal Poly – W 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 Western Illinois – W 3-1 (1-0)

10/8 @ Southern Illinois – W 4-1 (2-0)

10/15 @ North Dakota State – L 4-2 (2-1)

10/22 Youngstown State – W 5-2 (3-1)

10/29 @ Illinois State – W 6-2 (4-1)

11/5 Missouri State – W 7-2 (5-1)

11/12 South Dakota – W 8-2 (6-1)

11/19 @ Northern Iowa – L 8-3 (6-2)

In most of these predictions I seem to list 4 or 5 games that I think are pure toss ups. With SDSU I feel pretty confident about the win loss record. I may have a game or two flopped, but record I’m pretty set on. I think 8-3 and fighting for a 7 or 8 seed feels right. I’m willing to listen to the idea that SDSU knocks off one of NDSU or UNI and drops a game to Illinois State or Youngstown State. I think 7-4 is a disappointment and anything worse puts Stig in a bad spot. Getting both NDSU and UNI on the road in the same year is a major hit to challenging for a conference title.

This feels like the year for SDSU to make their move to avoid NDSU in the playoffs. The playoff committee has “gotten rid of” the regionalization rule to some extent. The Jacks are going to be a top 10 program nearly all season. There will be as strong a case as ever for SDSU get get a more favorable path in the playoffs. Can the Jacks break in their gorgeous new home properly? It would be a damn shame if this stadium didn’t get a playoff game this year…

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Liberty

*Preview courtesy Libertine on AGS

Unequivocally, the biggest question mark in the Big South conference hovers over Liberty. After finally getting the playoff monkey off their back in 2014, the Flames entered 2015 with four senior All-Americans on the roster, some high expectations and a general sense of promise. While some of that promise was fulfilled in wins over top-10 FCS opponents Montana and Coastal Carolina and a road win over FBS bowl-bound Georgia State (which still feels weird to say out loud), those moments, like any item off of the Applebee’s lunch menu where the bread in an otherwise disappointing sandwich is easily the best part of the meal, surrounded bad losses on the road to Gardner-Webb, Monmouth and Southern Illinois.

In 2016, Liberty has to replace their top two rushers from the last three seasons, the all-time leading receiver in school history, the all-time leading passer in school history, the all-time leading sack leader in school and conference history and the all-time leading FG kicker of 50 yards+ in school, conference and national history. Yeah, that’s a lot. Still, while those personnel losses are obviously significant, they are pretty much the only significant losses and, particularly with the departure of Coastal Carolina to FBS, there is still enough talent waiting in the wings for Liberty to make a run at what would be a league-leading 8th conference title.

On offense, QB Stephon Masha had been the primary backup to Josh Woodrum for the last two season and now steps into the starter role. While Masha played sparingly in a wild-card role in 2015, he filled in for an injured Woodrum during Liberty’s 2014 playoff run, starting two games including a road upset of top-ranked Coastal Carolina. Masha will need to stay healthy and productive, however, as the two players behind him on the depth chart are talented true freshmen. Second-leading rusher from year ago, Todd Macon, returns to a backfield with three less seniors in it but is no less crowded. Prized recruit Frankie Hickson should see time after redshirting 2015 as will human bulldozer, Carrington Moseley. WR BJ Farrow returns from his breakout season a year ago as does slot Zac Parker. Up front, the Flames replace former-walk-on-turned-all-American Jon Burgess and German national Max Sommer with a now-healthy Lucas Holder and Norwegian national Ernst Anderson.

On the defensive side of the ball, the loss of sack artist Chima Uzowihe is hard to replace but Juwan Wells performed well enough in spot duty to get the nod for this season. At linebacker, Liberty lost their starting Mike to graduation but brings back virtually everyone else including standout weakside backer Nick Newman. In the defensive backfield, nearly everyone returns from last year’s two-deep returns for the Flames with only S Alpha Jalloh in their last year of eligibility.

On special teams, Liberty lost a major weapon to the NFL in the massive leg of John Lunsford. The threat of being able to score points from the midfield logo made defenses play LU a little differently than they otherwise might. The Flames will enter 2016 with true freshman, Alex Probert, at the placekicker position but return upperclassmen at the punter and long-snapper spots.

The Flames 2015 schedule was, on paper, difficult but, in reality, was more so as the schedule also featured a four-game road swing and caught five of the first six opponents immediately after an open week. This year’s has less of that.

The schedule:

@ Virginia Tech (9/3)

Jacksonville (9/10)

@ SMU (9/17)

Jacksonville State (9/24)

Robert Morris (10/1)

@ Kennesaw State (10/15)

Monmouth (10/22)

Gardner-Webb (10/29)

@ Presbyterian (11/5)

Charleston Southern (11/12)

@ Coastal Carolina (11/17)

2016 Big Sky Preview: North Dakota

2015 Record: 7-4 (5-3)

Key Returners: Cole Reyes, John Santiago, Keaton Studsrud

Key Losses: Zach Adler (TE), Miguel Cerriteno (WR), Will Ratelle (LB), Sean Meehan (OG) Brandon Anderson (OG) Elijah Grady (OT)

New year, new nickname for North Dakota. This year will be the maiden voyage of their new nickname after the university was forced to change its nickname. This year, and going forward, they will be called the Fighting Hawks. The Fighting Hawks name was voted on by what seemed like everyone in North Dakota and went through several rounds of pairing down to land on this nickname. Not sure why the Abominable Snowmen weren’t chosen, but we’ll have to live with this. Head coach Bubba Schweigert will look to build on the success of last season and carry it forward to this season. The Hawks finished 7-4 last season, barely missing the playoffs despite having a resume that could have gotten them in. A loss to Idaho State and Weber State likely was their undoing, despite finishing with a three game winning streak.

The Hawks return quarterback Keaton Studsrud who had a nice season, as well as sophomore running back John Santiago. Studsrud finished with 1262 yards and twelve touchdowns. He also rushed for 234 yards and three scores last season as well. Santiago rushed for 1459 yards last season with 16 touchdowns. An impressive year for a freshman running back. The Hawks weren’t all that effective through the air, but seemed to do just enough to win a few football games. Santiago, if he can continue his production this season, should be in the conversation for Big Sky player of the year on the offensive side of the ball. The Hawks will return their leading receiver from last season, Luke Stanley. Stanley had 312 yards and five scores. Junior defensive back Cole Reyes returns this season. He was a second team All Big Sky pick last season. He started in nine games and finished second in tackles with 71 tackles, 50 of those were solo.

The Hawks finished 62^nd in the country in total offense, averaging 379 yards per game. The Hawks finished 41^st in total defense, averaging 359 yards per game against. They were -1 in the touchdown ratio. The Hawks weren’t flashy by any means, but playing decent offense and good defense had them improving last season. John Santiago’s rushing yards were good enough for eighth in the country last season. If they can find a way to balance out the offense and work in more of a passing attack this team might be dangerous. The media has them picked to finish fourth in the conference. That’s not unreasonable for this team. Whether or not it gets them into a playoff game is another story.

The Fighting Hawk schedule doesn’t start particularly easy with road games at Stony Brook and Bowling Green. They’ll return home to play South Dakota and go back on the road to take on Montana State. The Hawks should get through October fairly unscathed but if they are scrapping for a playoff spot at the end of the season they are going to need to beat Northern Arizona at home to seal up that spot. If they don’t their fate could be in the hands of the playoff selection committee. Their schedule should set them up for seven wins, they will probably need to pull off another win in their schedule against either Stony Brook or Southern Utah, to get to eight wins to make sure they get a playoff spot. Their finale vs Northern Arizona at home should be a very good football game with playoff implications as well.

9/1   at Stony Brook
9/10   at Bowling Green
9/17   vs. South Dakota
9/24   at Montana State
10/1   vs. Cal Poly
10/8   at Sacramento State
10/15   vs. Southern Utah
10/22   at Idaho State
10/29   vs. Weber State
11/5   at Northern Colorado
11/12   vs. Northern Arizona

2016 MVFC Preview: Southern Illinois

2015 Record: 3-8 (2-6)

Key Returnees: RB Daquan Isom, WR Billy Reed, LB Chase Allen, LB Markese Jackson

Key Losses: QB Mark Iannotti, S James Kenny, S DJ Cameron, CB Ryan Neal

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Between 2003 and 2009 the Salukis were one of the biggest names in the nation. Jerry Kill build a program that went 70-19 with 5 conference titles over that time. Never once did they finish with less than 9 wins. Kill had the best of both worlds – a dynamite offense and a brick wall defense. Kill left after the 2007 season and in came Dale Lennon to ride the wave of Kill’s roster. The honeymoon quickly wore off as Lennon took one of the best programs in the nation and turned them into a “Yeah, they used to be good” type program. What’s the future hold for the Salukis and new head coach, Saluki legend, Nick Hill?

It’s a good thing Coach Hill knows the quarterback position as well as he does, as that is a major question mark for this season with the loss of Mark Iannotti, who was the best offensive player in the conference last season – I don’t care what the award lists said. Iannotti accounted for more yards than Missouri State (by a factor of two), South Dakota (by a full games worth of yards), and was about one half of football behind Indiana State….by himself. Hill has options as he has 4 quarterbacks on the roster, but only one has taken snaps at the D1 level, Matt DeSormer who spent more time at wide receiver and running back last season as he had 23 rushes, 10 receptions and just 3 pass attempts. The best option, that I can see, is a D2 transfer, Josh Straughan. In three seasons at Stillman College he completed 468 passes, for 5,470 yards and 53 touchdowns. He appears to be of the same type of mold that Iannotti had been, but even getting to half of Iannotti’s numbers is going to be tough given the offensive line. A large part of what made Iannotti great was his ability to make plays when nothing else was there.

The bright spot, and focus, for the Saluki offense this year will be running back Daquan Isom. Last season he was a second-team all conference selection as a return specialist and started 5 games at running back. He finished last season 10th in the conference in rushing yards per game, 7th in receptions per game, and ranked 7th nationally in all purpose yards per game. He has the speed and shiftiness to get the end-zone on every single touch. I have some concerns regarding him holding up over the course of a season given his size, 5’8 178 lbs. We’ve seen other backs that size thrive in the MVFC, specifically Shakir Bell from Indiana State, but even he ended up a couple series per game, to entire halves or games, due to the beating he took from being the feature back. There is a stable with 7 other running backs on the roster, but none have the game breaking ability of Isom. The loss of Iannotti could hurt here as well. Defenses had to react so hard to every move Iannotti make that it opened up cut back lanes for Isom to hit. It will be interesting to see how he develops this season. He also appeared to have issues with Dale Lennon towards the end of last season, that saw him suspended. Maybe Nick Hill moving into the HC role straightens those issues out.

Whoever is throwing the ball will have plenty of option to pick from at reciever as well as 8 of the top 10 from last season are back, including leading receiver Billy Reed who had 56 catches for 805 yards last season. The two that are gone are both tight ends, Josh Skadlenad (12 receptions) and Adam Fuehne (25 receptions). Perhaps the biggest gain the Salukis saw here is the granting of a 6th year to Israel Lamprakes, who lost 2011 and 2012 to injury. In 9 games last season he had 31 receptions for 381 yards. I know it’s easy to see how many guys are coming back and glance past this, but the leadership and knowledge that a guy like Israel can bring, and just added depth, can’t be overlooked.

This is where the positivity train ends for SIU. The defense at SIU the last few years has been horrendous, and last season was the low point for any SIU defense I remember seeing. If it wasn’t for all the attention Missouri State got for their historically bad defense last year more people would be aware just how awful the dawgs were on defense last season. While the offense scored 36.1 points and gained 498 yards per game the defense gave up 240 yards per game on the ground, 230 yards per game through the air, and 35 points per game. For those that don’t want to do that math that’s 468 yards per game given up. Yep, SIU had a historically good offense and their defense match it yard for yard and point for point. On the plus side, it really can’t get much worse here, right? The concern I have with Nick Hill is how he will fix the defense. He was a quarterback in college. He coached quarterbacks the last few seasons, he has limited to no defensive experience. He has made a smart hire in Kraig Paulson as defensive coordinator though. Paulson might be be known for his run at Montana where he made three national title games and produced multiple NFL defensive players. It’s not going to get better this year, or even next. Can Kraig get enough done to keep the trust of Hill to build a defense, given his starting point?

Schedule:

9/3 @ Florida Atlantic – L 0-1 0-0

9/10 Southeast Missouri – W 1-1 0-0

9/17 Murray State – W 2-1 0-0

10/1 @ Northern Iowa – L 2-2 0-1

10/8 South Dakota State – L 2-3 0-2

10/15 @ Illinois State – L 2-4 0-3

10/22 Indiana State – W 3-4 1-3

10/29 @ Missouri State – W 4-4 2-3

11/5 South Dakota – L 4-5 2-4

11/12 @ Youngstown State – L 4-6 2-5

11/19 Western Illinois – L 4-7 2-6

I really, really, want to give SIU the nod at FAU. I just don’t know the quarterback situation well enough to give it to them. SEMO could be a toss up, but barring another 6 INT performance from the SEMO defense I don’t see another loss. The only other game i could be talked into a Saluki win is South Dakota, but I think USD is a more rounded team and by that late in the season I think that’ll be a tough out for SIU. Better days may be a head for Saluki faithful, but I think they might be way a head.

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Murray State

2015 Record: 3-8 (2-6 OVC)

Key Losses: DB DeQuinten Spraggins (Second Team All-OVC), WR Jeremy Harness, WR Janawski Davis

Key Returnees: QB KD Humphries (Second Team All-OVC), RB Roman Clay (Second Team All-OVC)

The Racers in 2015 led one of the fiercest air attacks in the FCS last year. Quarterback KD Humphries led the division in passing yards with 3778 yards and captained an offense that averaged 347 passing yards a game, second only to Eastern Washington and their All-American receiver Cooper Kupp. The Racers air raid attack was great for racking up yards but the Racers offense couldn’t make up for the defense’s shortcomings and the Racers finished 2015 with a 3-8 record.

The offense will take a hit as the Racers lose the receiving trio of Harness, Davis, and Rice. However they will be helped by a returning KD Humphries and a seasoned offensive line. Leading the rushing attack will likely be Ole Miss transfer Mark Dodson Jr. On defense the Racers only return one, Bishop Woods, on the defensive line but look for Rashad Johnson and Silas Owens to play a bigger role this season. T-Ray Malone and Joey Cicoria are big losses for the Racer’s linebacking corps but Lamont Crittendon and Jonathan Jackson look to answer the call. The Racers secondary losses impact player Shawn Samuels-Connell but remains otherwise untouched.

The Racers defense in 2015 allowed over 40 points to be scored by opponents in a game on 6 different occasions. KD Humphries has been playing great ball, but it will likely not be enough to make up for the loss of two of his favorite targets in Harness and Davis.

Schedule and Predictions: 3-8 (2-6 OVC)

L 9/3 @ Illinois

W 9/10 vs. Missouri State

L 9/17 @ Southern Illinois

L 9/24 vs Southeast Missouri State

W 10/1 @ Austin Peay

W 10/15 vs UT-Martin

L 10/22 @ Eastern Illinois

L 10/29 vs Tennessee State

L 11/5 @ Eastern Kentucky

L 11/12 vs. Jacksonville State

L 11/19 @ Tennessee Tech

Expect KD Humphries to have to carry the Racers through the season. It looks to be another rough season for Racer fans. I may be being a bit harsh here, but with the loss of Harness and Davis the offense is going to take a hit. Not only that, but even if the defense gets better compared to last year that’s still not a great recipe for a winning season.

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Kennesaw State

*Preview courtesy Libertine on AGS

In only their first year of existence, head coach Brian Bohannon’s Owls turned out to be exactly who we thought they were. Behind a triple-option attack run by The Citadel transfer, QB Trey White, KSU easily handled their early “starter” opponents and were 4-1 with the only loss coming at eventual PFL champ Dayton when they met Gardner-Webb for their first-ever Big South conference matchup. Despite rolling up 350 yards of offense on the day, KSU could not get into the end zone and, even though they won the day 12-7, the physical toll of the season on the Owls very young team was beginning to show. They picked up another conference win at home against Monmouth but injuries and the inexperience of youth took their toll down the stretch. KSU lost four of their last five with only the season-ending at Presbyterian representing anything resembling a close game. Still, for a first-year program, the Owls performed well and should feel good about the upcoming season.

The good thing about having a ridiculously young team is that you pretty much bring everybody back the next year and Kennesaw is no exception. Graduation and attrition took a couple of guys off of the depth chart for 2016 but every single offensive starter and nearly every player on the offensive two-deep comes back. The shoulder injury that ended White’s season in 2015 seems to have healed and he returns for his redshirt senior season with what must be a sense of urgency for both he and the team. The Owls need White to survive if they want to achieve this season. Last year’s backup QB, Jake McKenzie, proved to be a capable athlete but he isn’t the dynamic on-field presence that White is. McKenzie has now changed positions and exited spring practice as the starting B-back for the Owls.

Defensively, the picture isn’t quite as rosy for Kennesaw but it’s far from bleak. Last year, the Owls ran an aggressive scheme that capitalized on their young players’ athleticism and energy. It was fun to watch and, I’m sure, fun to play in but, at the same time, tended to give up more than a fair share of big plays. It will be interesting to see if Bohannon and defensive coordinator Brian Newberry keep the same focus as their roster matures. DT Nick Perrotta proved to be a significant presence up front and should provide some needed leadership there in his redshirt senior season. The Owls lost both starting ends on the defensive line as well as their starting Mike linebacker and starting field cornerback as well as a handful of depth players scattered across the defensive depth chart. These personnel losses aren’t extraordinary but a young team trying to build experience can’t afford to lose much.

On special teams, KSU lost a lot in the off-season. Primary kicker Justin Thompson had a decent year putting the ball through the uprights and he returns for 2016 but he appears to be the exception to the unit. The punter from last season is off of the current roster and Thompson appears to have been handed those duties. Further, the long snapper and primary kick returner from 2015 are gone as well. There is no word yet on whether or not Thompson will have to take over those jobs also.

The schedule:

East Tennessee State (9/3)

Point (9/10)

@ Duquesne (9/24)

@ Furman (10/1)

Missouri S&T (10/8)

Liberty (10/15)

Gardner-Webb (10/22)

@ Monmouth (10/29)

Clark-Atlanta (11/5)

Presbyterian (11/12)

@ Charleston Southern (11/19)

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Holy Cross

2015 Results: 6-5 (3-3)
Returning starters
Offense 10
Defense 6

The Crusaders, fresh off of being named one of the top 100 college football programs during the Associated Press Poll era, are looking to get back to those winning ways as it seems like 2009’s 9-3 season was decades ago. The low point came in 2012 when Tom Gilmore’s squad finished 2-9, but since then we’ve seen improvement each year as they’ve gone from 2 to 3 to 4 and finally to 6 wins last season. Outisde of the roster there’s reason to hope we see a break out year, should history repeate itself. Just a few short seasons before the 9-3 season in 2009 the Crusders were 1-11 and saw incremental improvement until exploding to the 9 win season.

Helping lead the charge is an explosive passing game, led by senior Peter Pujuols. Pujuols enters the season as a preseason all-conference selection after throwing for 3,195 yards with 28 touchdowns last season on a 129.1 efficiency rating and led the entire league in total offense. A quarterback, no matter how good, doesn’t put those numbers up without a stud target on the outside, and Pujuols has that in Brendan Flaherty. Last season Flaherty finished with 106 receptions for 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns, which landed him on multiple All American teams. He enters his senior season ranked first in receptions per game, and in the top 10 in career receptions. Even with that explosive passing game we must see an improved run game if the program wants to wins its 7^th conference title. Gabe Guild returns as the teams leading rusher, bur finished with just 409 yards. The only other back to see more than a handful of carries was Diquan Walker, who totaled 309 yards last season. Yes, Pujuols added 319 yards of his own, but adding more depth to the run game will open up even more lanes for the potent passing attack.

What looks to be the biggest key for the Crusaders this season is getting consistent play out of the defense. At times last season the defense looked solid as they allowed 7 points or fewer 4 times – though it’s worth noting those games were against Georgetown, Bucknell, Lafayette and Albany. The other 7 games of the season the defense surrendered nearly 34 points per game. Even the explosive offense they possess wasn’t able to keep up with that kind of pace as the team was just 2-5 in those 7 contests. The top end talent is there – defensive lineman Dewayne Cameron and defensive backs Alim Muhammad and Luke Ford are all on the preseason All Patriot teams. Who steps in around them is key. The Patriot is full of offensive talent, and this Holy Cross team will only go as far as the defense takes them. As good as this offense is we don’t need a MVFC type defense for Holy Cross to potentially grab a playoff berth. If the defense can knock the average from 34 points per game in the 5 toughest match ups down to about 24 points per game I think we may see a playoff team.

Schedule

9/3 @ Morgan State

9/10 @ New Hampshire

9/17 @ Albany

9/24 Dartmouth

10/1 – @ Lafayette

10/8 Bucknell

10/15 Harvard

10/22 – Lehigh

10/29 @ Colgate

11/5 @ Georgetown

11/12 Fordham – Yankee Stadium

AGS Patriot League Preseason prediction: 4^th place

2016 Big Sky Preview: Montana State

2015 Record: 5-6 (3-5)

Key Returners: Ben Folsom, Chad Newell, Gunnar Brekke, Mitchell Herbert, Tyler Bruggman, Mac Bignell, JP Flynn

Key Losses: Dakota Prukop, Beau Sandland, Luke Daly, Trace Timmer

Montana State will enter the season with a new head coach, Jeff Choate, who comes to the Bobcats from Washington where he was an assistant under Chris Pedersen. The Bobcats, 5-6 last season, will look to rebound under a new coach. Rob Ash was let go after last season, despite being one of the more successful coaches in Bobcat history. The Bobcats had probably hit their ceiling under Ash and needed a change if the Bobcats were ever going to make a deeper run into the playoffs. Choate brings a new attitude to the team, a little more fire and passion, whereas Rob Ash was known to be a bit of a wet noodle in regards to his personality. Also coming over to the Bobcats is former Montana defensive coordinator Ty Gregorak, who resigned his position at Montana.

The Cats will also be without quarterback Dakota Prukop who took his talents to Oregon, following in the footsteps of Vernon Adams the previous year. The Cats will have a big question mark at quarterback going into the season, a position that has been a strength for the Cats over the last few years.

The Bobcats finished third in FCS last season in total offense. They averaged 519 yards per game and were averaging 6.82 yards per play. That’s an impressive statistic on paper and resulted in a lot of points on the scoreboard for the Cats. The Bobcats averaged 303 yards per game passing last season, which was good enough for seventh in the country. The undoing of the Bobcats last year, and most years under Rob Ash was the lack of defense to keep the games from becoming a weekly track meet. The Cats defense was ranked 115^th, giving up 472 yards per game. The Cats finished +10 in the touchdown category and were -2 in the turnover margin, which isn’t real terrible but a number that will need improvement.

The Bobcats’ biggest question heading into the season is who is going to play quarterback. The Cats have a transfer from Scottsdale Community College in Tyler Bruggman, and two redshirt freshmen, Ben Folsom and Brady McChesney. You’d have to think the reigns will be handed to the transfer until proven otherwise not fit for the job. Bruggman threw for 1692 yards and 19 touchdowns last season for Scottsdale Community College. Previous to playing at SCC Bruggman was a quarterback at Washington State. The Cats return two of their three top rushers from last season, Chad Newell and Gunnar Brekke, both seniors. Newell rushed for 831 yards and 12 touchdowns. Brekke rushed for 293 yards and one touchdown. Junior receiver Mitchell Herbert returns this season. Last season he caught 42 passes for 562 yards and eight touchdowns.

The Bobcats have a few weeks to get their feet under them before conference play starts. They’ll kickoff their season against Idaho, who is beginning the transition from FBS to FCS and will rejoin the Big Sky in 2017. You have to wonder what the state of the Idaho football team is knowing they are about to drop a subdivision in football. Will they be prepared to take on a young Bobcats team? From there the Cats have three in a row at home, with Bryant, Western Oregon, and North Dakota. They also have Northern Arizona at home, and Eastern Washington. Their schedule sets up nicely, but will they have the talent to win enough games for a playoff berth? Choate may be looking to do some roster overhauling, as well as trying to implement more of a defense-first type of team. This would be a change from the Rob Ash years. If the Cats can improve their defense and keep the offense functioning at a high level you have to think that the Bobcats would be a legit playoff contender in coming years.

9/1/2016    at Idaho
9/10/2016    Bryant
9/17/2016    Western Oregon
9/24/2016    North Dakota
10/1/2016    at Sacramento State
10/8/2016    Northern Arizona
10/15/2016    at Weber State
10/22/2016    Eastern Washington
11/5/2016    at Southern Utah
11/12/2016    UC Davis
11/19/2016    at Montana

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Jacksonville State

2015 Record: 13-2 (8-0 OVC) FCS Championship Game

Key Losses: RB Troymaine Pope (2015 Third Team All-American), DL Chris Landrum (2015 Third Team All-American), CB Jermaine Hough (2015 Third Team All-American)

Key Returnees: QB Eli Jenkins (2015 First Team All-American, FCS ADA 2015 QB of the Year), WR Josh Barge (2015 First Team All-OVC), C Casey Dunn (2015 Second Team All-American)

John Grass, the 2015 AFCA Coach of the Year, is entering his third year with the Gamecocks. Over the past two years Grass has amassed a record 23-4, led his Gamecocks to the FCS Championship game, led JSU to their first #1 ranking in school history, saw the highest average home game attendance in school history, and went undefeated in OVC play for back to back seasons. This year doesn’t look to disappoint either, but the road to return to Frisco won’t be an easy one for the Gamecocks.

The Gamecocks lose 15 starters but thankfully for the Gamecocks JSU will benefit from a deep roster and a deeper recruiting class. The Gamecocks’ recruiting list includes former 5-star Auburn running back Roc Thomas, who ran for 2,211 yards, 32 TDs, and averaged 9.8 YPC his senior year in high school. Who was the high school coach that allowed Roc to thrive in this fashion? None other than John Grass. The Gamecocks reload on offense, returning All-American quarterback Eli Jenkins, 4 starting offensive linemen, JSU’s All-time leading receiver Josh Barge, and bringing in Mr. Football Alabama 2013 Roc Thomas.

The 2016 edition of the Gamecock offense may actually be more potent than last year. 4 returning starting offensive linemen will help protect Eli Jenkins. Behind Jenkins in the backfield will be either Roc Thomas or Josh Clemons. Grass looks to use the two running backs as a key part of his offense as they both have very different running styles. Roc is an elusive back with an ability to make people miss and great hands which makes him a threat not only in the run game, but also in the passing game. Whereas Clemons is a bruiser of a back who likes nothing more than to put a defender on the ground. Whenever Jenkins isn’t handing the ball off he’s passing it to either preseason All-American receiver Josh Barge or 6’ 4” Anthony Johnson. Whenever Jenkins isn’t handing the ball off or passing it up for one of his receivers he’s running it himself. Versatility will be the cornerstone of the Gamecock offense. Part of what makes Grass’s offensive scheme so potent is the ability to attack defenses in so many different ways.

The Gamecocks defense also looks to reload after losing two All-Americans in pass rusher Chris Landrum (now with the San Diego Chargers) and CB Jermaine Hough. On the defensive line the Gamecocks return All-OVC DE Darius Jackson and DT Desmond Owino who split time with All-OVC DT Devaunte Sigler (now with the Pittsburgh Steelers). The secondary is where the Gamecocks have done a lot of work. Starting CB Jaylen Hill returns for his senior year and JSU has brought in Wazzou 3-star corner Pat Porter and SEC All-Freshman Al Harris Jr to help rebuild the secondary. Though the Gamecocks lost most of their starters on the defensive side of the ball they benefit from the depth they have from players coming back that spent significant minutes in games last year. Look for guys like EJ Moss to be among the new faces making plays for the defense this season.

Schedule and Predictions: 10-1 (7-0 OVC)

W 9/1 vs. North Alabama

L 9/10 @ LSU

W 9/17 vs. Coastal Carolina

W 9/24 @ Liberty

W 10/8 vs. Tennessee Tech

W 10/15 vs. Austin Peay

W 10/22 @ Eastern Kentucky

W 10/29 vs. Eastern Illinois

W 11/5 @ Southeast Missouri State

W 11/12 @ Murray State

W 11/19 UT-Martin

Look for the Gamecocks to run the table once again in the OVC. They will find success through a reloaded roster and a great coaching staff led by John Grass. Their out-of-conference schedule includes a home game against Coastal Carolina and a trip to Liberty. I gave the nod to the Gamecocks over Coastal, not because homerism, but because of the home field advantage the Gamecocks have built over the past two years. Just ask KC Keeler about the atmosphere in Burgess-Snow when it’s boasting a near capacity crowd. Expect the Gamecocks to finish the regular season strong and seek a first-round bye for the playoffs.

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Georgetown

Thank you all who helped put this together, especially those from HoyaSaxa.com

2015 Results: Georgetown 4-7 (2-4)
Returning starters:
Offense: 4
Defense: 5

In a year when the Patriot League is fully stocked at 60 scholarships, the Georgetown Hoyas enter the 2016 season short on depth and facing questions on offense.

The only FCS non-scholarship team playing in a scholarship conference, the Hoyas return just nine starters from last season’s 4-7 team, with its entire backfield having graduated last spring and just one senior returning on offense.

The Hoyas will have some early decisions at quarterback, where senior Tim Barnes is the favorite to succeed Kyle Nolan, who threw for 5,750 yards in his Georgetown career. By contrast, Barnes enters training camp this week with just one start over three seasons, passing for 79 yards last season. Georgetown will carry six QB’s onto its pre-season roster, so Barnes must earn his starting role.

Georgetown needs to replace its starting backfield, with Isaac Ellsworth (141 yds, 0 TD) and Alex Valles (130 yds, 1 TD) expected to challenge for a starting role. The Hoyas averaged just 97 yards per game on the ground last season, and will look to the positioning of senior tight end Matt Buckman (32-251-4), a pre-season All-PL selection, to help support the run effort. Senior Justin Hill (46 catches, 636 yds.) will carry the load as the only returning starter at wide receiver from last season.

Despite the scholarship imbalance, the Hoyas have traditionally held its own on defense, where linebackers Dan Yankovich (88 tackles in 2015) and Leo Loughery (84 tackles) anchor the Georgetown effort. Of concern will be in the secondary, where head coach Rob Sgarlata must replace three starters from a team that finished second in the Patriot in defense last season.

Three Georgetown players were named to the all-Patriot pre-season team: Matt Buckman, senior placekicker Henry Darmstadter and sophomore DB Jethro Francois.

Two Pioneer League and three Ivy League teams form the Georgetown non-conference slate before Patriot League play begins on Oct. 15. Georgetown will have to pick up wins early to challenge for a winning record, a mark which has only been reached once since the 2000 season. Georgetown was a promising 4-4 heading into the final weeks of the 2015 season, but dropped its final three games.

Georgetown was picked last in the 2016 pre-season Patriot League media poll, with its best chance for a win in-conference coming Oct. 29 at Lafayette, which was picked sixth in the seven team poll. Road games against pre-season favorites Fordham (Oct. 22) and Colgate (Nov. 19) appear prohibitive–the Hoyas have not won in the Bronx since the 1974 season and have never won at Colgate since joining the Patriot League in 2001. The Hoyas will play tough, however, and can be expected to do so again this season despite the obstacles ahead of them.

2016 Schedule (home games in CAPS):
09/03: DAVIDSON
09/10: at Marist
09/24: COLUMBIA (77th Homecoming Game)
09/30: at Harvard
10/08: PRINCETON
10/15: LEHIGH
10/22: at Fordham
10/29: at Lafayette
11/05: HOLY CROSS
11/12: BUCKNELL
11/19: at Colgate