SOCON: Week 6 Review and Power Rankings

There were no surprises in the race for the Southern Conference crown as Chattanooga rolled to remain unbeaten.  Samford, VMI and Wofford all won as well to stay at one loss in the conference race.  The Citadel continued to win in an out of conference game.

# 7 The Citadel 38  North Greenville 14 (box score)

With Hurricane Matthew headed for the South Carolina low country, The Citadel Bulldogs were forced to travel upstate to take on the Division II North Greenville Crusaders.  With their practice week cut short, the unexpected travel (8 hour bus trip), and accommodations at a nearby Christian summer camp, the Bulldogs really needed to stay focused on beating a very good Crusader team who has claimed more than one FCS scalp over the last few years.  Upstate Bulldogs fans and many low country evacuees in Citadel blue descended on Tigerville, SC for the game.  In fact, an attendance record for NGU’s Younts Stadium was set for this game as 5435 attended the first meeting between these schools.  In the end, the Bulldogs got it done, but it appeared touch and go initially.

The Dogs took their opening drive 76 yards only to stall on a 4th and goal from the 1. After holding the Dogs, NGU ran one rushing play to get some breathing room, which was stuffed by the Dogs.  Crusader QB Will Hunter then tossed a pass on a crossing route that connected with Javon Smith in full stride and he took it to the house.  That is the way to start if you are a Div II school looking to upset an FCS ranked team.  But the Dogs got it in gear on their next series and went 59 yards in 5 plays to tie it up on a 17 yard TD run by Reggie Williams.

The Crusaders took their next possession 32 yards on 6 plays before giving it up on downs at The Citadel 43 yard line.  After the teams traded punts, The Citadel quickly took it 61 yards on 4 plays to go ahead 14-7.  Rod Johnson scored the TD on a 49 yard run.  After forcing another NGU punt it looked like the Dogs were finally taking control as they drove 48 yards in 8 plays to NGU 10.  But a careless fumble on a second effort by Reggie Williams gave it back to the Crusaders.  Two plays later, in a déjà vu nightmare for the Dogs, Will Hunter again connected with a wide open Javon Smith after The Citadel defender fell and the Crusaders tied it up at 14 with 5:39 to go in the half.

After the Crusaders attempted a sky hook kickoff in an attempt to recover, one of The Citadel up men called for a fair catch while back peddling to the 35. He caught it clean and was promptly hit by a Crusader which gained the Dogs 15 penalty yards.  The whole situation apparently lit a fire under the Bulldog offense which had been a little sluggish so far.  On first and ten from their 48 yard line, Cam Jackson took the pitch and sprinted off 52 yards for the go ahead score to make it 21-14.

The teams traded punts again with NGU doing a pretty good job of containing The Citadel B-Back Tyler Renew.  NGU got the ball back with 1:07 to go in the half and was moving it well when the Dogs got some good pressure on the Crusader QB and he was hit as he threw it.  The injured duck throw, with no time left on the clock, went right to, none other than Bulldog defender Dee Delaney who promptly wove his way to the end zone for a 78 yards TD return.  But a flag brought it back.  Apparently after the NGU QB had been taken down, one of the Citadel players was blocking him as he was on the ground trying to get up and get Delaney before he scored.  After the penalty was marked off, with no time on the clock, The Citadel ran one play and headed into the half with a slim lead and a scare.

The second half would be all Dogs as they wore down the capable Crusaders.  In the first half, NGU racked up an impressive 297 yards of offense, with the 99 and 90 yard TD passes accounting for the lion’s share of those.  The Crusaders would only get a total of 75 yards in the second half.  The Dogs would score on 3 of 4 of their second half possessions, not counting their 5th possession which they drove 78 yards and ended in a victory formation in a sportsmanlike gesture.

On the night, the Dogs rolled up 599 yards of offense which is good for the 7th highest total in Bulldog history. It was 3 yards less than the WCU game last week.  It included 559 rushing yards, which is good for the #2 spot on the highest rushing total in a game for the Bulldogs.  On the night, the Bulldogs went 3-6 through the air for 40 yards with 1 TD toss for 30 yards.  Even with all those rushing yards, only one Bulldog had a 100 yard rushing game.  Cam Jackson tallied 107 yards on 6 carries.  The Dogs spread it around quite a bit with 3 other runners gaining 80+ and 2 more with 70+.  The Citadel gained 33 first downs and went 7/15 on 3rd down tries and 2/3 on 4th downs.

Although the Dog defenders had a great second half, the Crusaders did gain 372 on the night with over half of those yards coming on just 2 plays. They did hold NGU to just 56 yards on the ground for the night.  Dee Delaney snagged his 3rd interception of the year as well.  Bulldog defender also recorded 11 tackles for loss including 3 sacks.  Another bonus for the Bulldog defense is that their offense held the ball for an outrageous 39:08.

The Bulldogs were outstanding on special teams. On kickoffs, the average return for NGU was 13 yards, while the Dogs averaged nearly 30 a return.  DeAndre Schoultz returned 5 punts for the Dogs with an average of 9.2 yards per return, including a long of 27 yards.  Although the Dogs did better in keeping down penalties (3-40), they had a costly one that erased the pick six.

The Dogs probably never doubted the outcome. They went about the game in a fairly business-like manner and were not fazed by the two big NGU plays.  The Dogs were no doubt a little distracted, but got it done with no injuries and a bonus of 2 extra days in which to prepare for what could be the deciding game for the SOCON championship next week against Chattanooga.

#19 Samford 38  Furman 21 (box score)

The Furman Paladins needed a win badly after starting 0-5.  It didn’t start out well for them going 3 and out on their first possession.  The Samford Bulldogs promptly took the ball 59 yards in 5 plays to go up 7-0.  After a poor kickoff return, the Paladins got one first down before stalling.  At this point Furman took a calculated risk and went for it on a fourth and inches at its own 34.  The risk did not pay off as Samford stuffed them and then took just three plays to score again for a 14-0 lead with 7:53 to go in the first.  On their next possession, just when it looked like the Paladins were able to start moving the ball, things got worse as they fumbled near mid-field.  They got a reprieve though as Bulldogs QB Devlin Hodges fumbled himself on a 4th and 1 from the Furman 39.  Furman struck back quickly and two plays later connected on a 51 yard toss to the Samford 2.  Four plays later Samford had the ball again after holding Furman scoreless in a stubborn goal line fight.

After the teams traded punts to take it into the second quarter, Furman started to drive again. They were aided by more than 1 penalty that kept them moving in the right direction.  That was enough to allow Reese Hannon to take one in as he weaved his way through more than one defender on a 36 yard rushing score to make it 14-7.

Furman’s defense again did their part by forcing Samford to punt, for the fourth straight time.  But Furman’s inconsistent offense stumbled again and they punted it back to the Bulldogs.  This time Samford wasted no time and scored quickly in 4 plays to gain back a 14 point lead.  Samford’s offense is certainly explosive with its first three scoring drives taking an average of just 4 plays and 1:06 each.

Samford scored again on their next drive, but it took an interminable two minutes, by Samford standards, and Furman’s defense held them to a field goal making it 24-7.  With 2:37 to go before half, the Furman offense had one more chance to redeem themselves before half.  They did.  Resse Hannon orchestrated an 11 play 80 yard drive to cut its deficit to 24-14 at the half.  Hannon went 7/11 on the drive including converting a fourth and 6.  Furman scored on a 16 yard toss by Hannon.

After trading punts to start the third, Samford missed a 39 yard field goal.  After Furman again had to punt, Samford went to town on a 7 play, 85 yard drive that took 2:21.  As the fourth quarter started, down 31-14, Furman could ill afford to give it back to the Bulldogs at this point.  They didn’t.  Reese Hannon again drove the Paladins for a score on a 7 play, 66 yard drive to make it 31-21 with 12:59 to go in the game.  But Samford answered right back with a long drive of their own, to make it 38-21.  Samford drive took over 4 minutes and went 84 yards in 9 plays.  More importantly, Samford ran more than they had been, including the score which was a 7 yard scamper by Hodges.

Furman was up against the wall at this point. They drove well until Hannon tossed his first interception of the day deep in Samford territory.  That basically ended it for the Paladins with under 5 minutes to go.

Furman’s defense, which started the year so well, gave up 517 yards on the day.  Devlin Hodges, Samford prolific QB, finished the day going 27/38 and 411 yards, with 3 TDs and 1 interception.  As mentioned, just as impressive, is that Samford finally got their running game going, at least a little bit.  They gained 106 on the day, but that was huge improvement for them.  Furman’s Reese Hannon finished 30-50 for 301 with 2 TDs and 1 interception. On the day, Furman gained an impressive 415 yards, but it could not match Samford’s explosive passing attack.

Samford (4-1, 2-1) remains on track to be a runner up in the SOCON race and snag a playoff berth.  Having lost to The Citadel, UTC, and now Samford, it should only get easier for the Furman Paladins.

Samford faces off against a dangerous VMI squad next week.  Furman fans are hopeful the Paladins will find a win next week at ETSU.

VMI 37  ETSU 7 (box score)

The ETSU Bucs traveled to Lexington, Virginia to face the Keydets of VMI on Saturday.  After trading punts to start to game, VMI took it 72 yards on 7 plays highlighted by a 32 yard pass from Al Cobb to Dane Forlines and a 19 yard run by Alex Keys.  VMI scored on a 1 yard run by Keys.  After forcing ETSU to punt, VMI’s capable offense went to work again.  This time they drove 80 yards in 6 plays and scored on a 54 yard toss by Cobb to make it 14-0 with seconds remaining in the first quarter.  After trading three punts, the Keydets again scored on a long pass.  This time it was a 45 yard toss by Cobb to cap off a 7 play 80 yard drive.

VMI took it the distance again on their next drive as well.  This time on a 7 play, 55 yard drive to make it 27-0 with 24 seconds to go in the half.  They had the extra point blocked.  The Keydets racked up 265 yards in the first half.  ETSU punted on all five of their possessions, but they never went 3 and out and totaled 123 yards by the half.

Things didn’t start well in the second half for the Bucs of ETSU.  On their first play from scrimmage, Bucs QB Austin Herink threw an interception.  But VMI could not capitalize and punted it back after a three and out.  The VMI defense continued to be perfect and forced ETSU to punt yet again.  VMI then scored on a 51 yard field goal which is pretty good, especially considering VMI’s field goal woes this year.

The Bucs were still playing hard and they halted VMI on their next drive at the goal line. Likewise the Keydet defense held firm and forced an eighth punt by the Bucs.  Now in the 4th quarter and up 30-0, VMI wisely took Cobb out of the game and started to work on their running game.  With their back up QB in, VMI didn’t move it well, but the Keydet defense continued holding the Bucs.   ETSU almost got on the board following a VMI interception but missed a 47 yard field goal try.

VMI scored again on a 73 yard TD romp to make it 37-0 with under 5 minutes to go in the game.  On the Buc’s final drive they finally had some success as they drove 73 yards on 10 plays for a TD to avoid the shutout.  The drive was highlighted by a 38 yard toss by ETSU’s back up QB Nick Sexton.

VMI’s Al Cobb finished the day 14/20 with 212 yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions.  Overall, VMI had 458 yards with 233 on the ground.  VMI had a good balanced attack on offense.  The Keydet runners were led by Tyain Smith with 97 yards.  ETSU’s Austin Herink went 11/23 and 109 yards with no TDs and 1 interception.  ETSU’s offense struggled, gaining just 262 yards for the day.

VMI now 3-2 and 1-1 in the SOCON is stringing together what could be its best season in years.  They face Samford on the road next week in what will no doubt be a duel between Hodges and Cobb.  ETSU will face a downtrodden Furman team at home.

# 5 Chattanooga 52  Mercer 31 (box score)

After an upset loss last year, the Chattanooga Mocs were going to be prepared for the Mercer Bears this year.  They proved they were ready from the first whistle.  After the Mocs defense held Mercer to a three and out, the Mocs offense went to work.  They executed a methodical 65 yard drive in 11 plays for their first score.  The big play of the drive being a 34 yard pass by Mocs QB Alejandro Bennifield to the Mercer 9.

On Mercer’s next possession, they went 12 plays for 62 yards but had to settle for a 30 yard field goal.  The Mocs answered right back in what could be called the Derrick Craine drive.  The Mocs rusher ran three times for 75 yards during the 5 play 79 yard drive, including a 25 yard TD run.  When Mercer was forced to punt again after a three and out, UTC, or rather Craine turned up the heat.  Craine took the second play of the drive to the house on a 54 yard run to make it 21-3 at the beginning of the second quarter.  It didn’t get any better for the Bears.  After another 3 and out, the Mocs drove 51 yards in 9 plays to gain another 3 on a 20 yard field goal to make it 24-3.  But things went from bad to worse for the Bears.

On their next possession, on a third and 5 from the Mercer 33, Bears QB John Russ threw an uncharacteristic interception to give the Mocs a short field.  Chattanooga capitalized on the turnover to go up 31-3 with just over three minutes to go in the half.  The Mocs defense did their part yet again and forced another three and out on the Mercer offense.  With just 1:30 to go before the half, the Mocs offense was not done and cranked out a 7 play 57 yard drive to go up 38-3 with 18 seconds to go in the half.  The drive was aided by a roughing the passer penalty.  Penalties have previously plagued Mercer, but they avoided them in the first half fairly well getting flagged just twice for 28 yards.  UTC simply dominated the Bears in the first half.  The Mocs rolled up 338 yards prior to the break.  The Mocs defense was just as impressive holding Mercer to just 65 yards.

As good as the Mocs did in the first half they started out the second half with two scares.  First, Craine went down hard on a play and left the game.  Mercer ended up holding the Mocs on their opening possession and forced a punt, their first of the game.  Then the Bears, who were still playing like they were in it, blocked the punt and took over at the UTC 26.  A penalty took it to the 13 and the Bears punched it in on a 13 yard run up the middle by Alex Lakes to make it 38-10.  Mercer took a risk on the ensuing kickoff with an onside kick, but they did not recover and the Mocs started with great field possession and made them pay.  The Mocs scored on a 5 play drive when Bennifield wove his way for a 21 yard TD run.

Any hope the Bears had evaporated on the next drive when John Russ tossed his second interception of the game on a tipped ball for a pick six to make it 52-10 half way through the third quarter.  Mercer tried to make it respectable scoring again in the third on a long ball tossed by Russ, but their next drive was marred by two unsportsmanlike penalties on offensive lineman Avery White.  The Bears scored twice in the fourth to make it a 52-31 final, but it wasn’t nearly that close.

Bennifield finished 23/32 for 258 yards with 4 TDs and no interceptions. Derrick Craine ended up with 162 yards rushing on 17 attempts with one TD through a little more than half the game before he went out.  By all accounts he is ok and the Mocs simply kept him out as a precaution.  The Mocs held onto the ball for over 36 minutes and totaled 532 yards on the day.

The Bears made it respectable on paper in the second half and gained 340 yards on the day. John Russ ended the day going 18/28 for 222 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.  Mercer gained just 118 on the ground.

Chattanooga is now 6-0, 4-0 and faces its biggest remaining challenge next week when it travels to Charleston to meet the undefeated Bulldogs of The Citadel.  Mercer, now 2-3, 1-2, will attempt to regroup as it faces Western Carolina at home.

Wofford 31  Western Carolina 19 (box score)

The Wofford Terriers traveled to Cullowhee NC to face the Western Carolina Catamounts on Saturday.  The Terriers were 4th in the FCS in rushing coming into the game.  Western took their first drive the distance behind the arm of Tyrie Adams for 75 yards in 10 plays to go up 6-0.  Adams was 8/9 on this drive.  They missed the PAT.  Wofford took their first drive 57 yards before the Cats held them.  Facing a 4th a 7 in no-man’s land, Wofford elected to try a 57 yard field goal…and they hit it to make it 7-3.  WCU then took it 54 yards in 14 plays only be held and they were also forced to kick a FG to make it 9-3.

As the first quarter came to a close, Wofford began a statement drive of 80 yards in 10 plays and scored on a 35 yard reverse to go up 10-9. The Wofford defense got into the act next and picked off Adams to give the Terriers great field position.  Wofford made the Cats pay and drove it 38 yards in 8 plays to score again for a 17-9 score.  The teams traded punts 4 times to take it into the half.

Wofford took their opening drive of the second half 75 yards in 10 plays to extend the Terrier lead to 24-9. After a three and out by both teams, WCU got a drive going which included a hard fought 20 yard run by WCU back Detrez Newsome on a third and ten.  That must have sparked the Cats who scored 3 plays later on a 14 yards pass to Newsome to make it 24-16.

Back within striking distance, the Cats defense again rose up and made a stop helped by a fumbled Wofford snap.  After the punt, Western began their drive as the fourth quarter started.  Luck was with them as a crazy fumble was recovered by none other than Newsome who made something out of nothing.  Adams hit receiver after receiver to move it deep into Wofford territory.  But the drive stalled in the red zone and WCU had to settle for a field goal to close the deficit to 5 at 24-19.

Wofford looked to make it a two score game again with 11:53 to go in the game. On a third and six Wofford again ran a reverse and caught the Western defense flat footed for a 35 yard run.  Faced with a 4th and 3 at the WCU 34 a few plays later, Wofford went for it and trotted off another 8 yards.  The Terriers trudged their way to the goal line and scored after a 14 play drive that took 8:17 off the clock.  On the drive, the Terriers made 3 third down conversions and made one fourth down as well.  That is how you finish a game.  Now with the score at 31-19 and 3:36 to go, Western needed a miracle.  They almost got it when Newsome returned the kickoff to midfield and nearly broke it.  But after making a fourth down conversion, Adams turned it over on a fumble while scrambling and that ended any hope the Cats had.

Wofford finished with 322 yards on the ground and a just 38 through the air.  Wofford’s Lorenzo Long lead the Terrier ground attack with 135 yards and 2 TDs.  Wofford did not turn the ball over during the game.  WCU’s Tyrie Adams went 31/48 for 285 with 2 TDs and 1 interception.  Western’s offensive line did a better job this week and Adams was only sacked twice.  Western ran for just 46 yards.

Wofford has a bye week upcoming and gets The Citadel at home in two weeks. Western travels to Macon next week to face the Mercer Bears.

Power Rankings

1) UTC

2) The Citadel

3) Samford

4) Wofford

5) VMI

6) Mercer

7) Western Carolina

8) Furman

9) ETSU

OVC: Week 6 Preview

There are only 4 match ups in the OVC this week as Murray State is taking a week off before they host Tennessee-Martin. #28 Tennessee State is going to Charleston to take on the Panthers and looks to stay undefeated and claim their first win over a ranked team since 2013 when they knocked off #24 Jax State at home.  SEMO is coming off their upset win over Eastern Illinois and will try to stay undefeated in conference play as they travel to take on Eastern Kentucky. The still winless Austin Peay will probably extend their losing streak in Martin this weekend. Tennessee Tech will be looking for another big win as they travel down to Jacksonville to take on the #2 ranked Gamecocks.  

Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Kentucky 6PM EST (OVCDN)

If Eastern Kentucky wants a shot at the playoffs they must win out.  There are only 7 games left on their schedule and their only win was to a NAIA school.  Southeast Missouri State is coming off an upset over #22 Eastern Illinois and will look to extend their win streak to 3.  If Eastern Kentucky wants to win this game they MUST establish the run game.  As last week showed, relying solely on Bennie Coney won’t cut it for the Colonels and they need to run more and control the clock as they only held the ball for 17 minutes last week in their loss. Playing better defense wouldn’t hurt either.  Last week Tech scorched EKU’s secondary for 327 yards.  This will definitely be an interesting game to keep an eye on to see if Southeast Missouri can establish themselves as a contender for the OVC.

Prediction:  EKU’s offense once again shows it’s inconsistency and SEMO does enough to get their third W in a row.

SEMO-27     EKU-21

Austin Peay @ Tennessee-Martin 3PM EST (OVCDN)

Do you really have to ask how I think this game is going to go?  UTM will be able to move the ball at will against an outmatched Govs defense.  Austin Peay’s best chance at a win here might be to turn this game into a shootout. However, that might be easier said than done as they have only scored over 17 points one time this season.  That said, UTM hasn’t really shown that they can effectively contain offenses either considering they have yet to hold any D-I team below 360 yards of offense. This will really come down to what Healy can dial up to keep Austin Peay’s offense on the field.  I don’t think Austin Peay will be able to stop UTM’s offense, but if Austin Peay’s offense has a day like they did against EIU (minus the turnovers, obviously) I don’t know that UTM can stop the Gov’s offense.

Prediction:  Austin Peay can’t get things moving consistently enough on offense to stay in the game and UTM runs away with it.

UTM- 42     APSU- 24

#28 Tennessee State @ #22 Eastern Illinois 7PM EST (OVCDN)

I’m unofficially dubbing this as the OVC game of the week. Why?  It’s judgement day for both Eastern Illinois and Tennessee State as the winner of this game will likely be in the driver’s seat for an at-large spot in the playoffs and if Tennessee State wins they will be be one big step closer to locking up a part of the OVC championship.  Tennessee State is currently 4-0 after knocking off UT-Martin last week at home and the 3-2 Panthers are currently ranked at 22 in the AGS poll and are coming off a loss at SEMO. The Panthers only other loss was to Big Ten Purdue and they currently have FBS Miami (OH) under the “W” column. This game will likely come down to who plays defense.  Both teams have shown an ability to move the ball by land and by air but I think the difference maker in this game will be who can stop the run.  On paper it looks like Tennessee State has the advantage here as they have only allowed an average of 3.16 YPC across their three games but their three games were 3 of the worst teams in the FCS (TSU’s opponents currently have a combined record of 2-11)  and UT-Martin.  This game will tell us a lot about where both teams stand.

Prediction: Tennessee State’s defense steps up late in the game and TSU escapes with the win.

TSU- 34     EIU- 28

Tennessee Tech @ #2 Jacksonville State 2PM EST (ESPN3)

Jacksonville State is finally entering conference play with a visit from the Golden Eagles.  After knocking off EKU in Richmond last week TTU will likely look to pull another upset this weekend but after the performance JSU put on in Lynchburg and upset seems like a tall order. That said, this season of college football has been packed full of weird upsets and near misses so the Gamecocks should still be on high alert.  This will be new Tennessee Tech head coach Marcus Satterfield’s first game against Jacksonville State with John Grass at the helm and his first game against JSU since 2012 when he was Russ Huesman’s offensive coordinator at Chattanooga.  Expect Tennessee Tech to come out slinging the ball trying to expose JSU’s secondary.  If the Golden Eagles can move the ball through the air and limit big plays by Eli Jenkins and company they should be in with a chance at another upset.

Prediction:  JSU’s defensive line terrorizes Tech’s offense and big plays by Jenkins put the game out of reach for Tech.

JSU- 42     TTU- 10

Murray State will have a bye week before hosting UTM on the 15th.

Patriot League: Week 6 Preview

This week’s slate of games is highlighted by the annual Colgate-Lehigh grudge match. The two winningest programs in the Patriot League will be looking to get an early leg up in the chase for the conference title when they meet in Bethlehem. There are two other games this weekend, Bucknell at Holy Cross and Lafayette at Fordham, that figure to factor into the championship race. Both Bucknell and Lafayette will be looking to end 3 game losing skids. Finally, Georgetown faces Princeton for their last non-conference game of the season.

Colgate at Lehigh – 8 Oct. 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

(Patriot League Network)

The leaves might still be on the trees but the stakes are still very high when Colgate (1-3) travels to Lehigh (3-2). The Raiders enter the game off an emotional loss rival Cornell last weekend. Prior to that, Colgate had a tough set back at Richmond. Lehigh on the other hand is riding a three game winning streak.

The unusually early date (earliest since 1997, Oct. 4th) for the game means one of these conference favorites will start Patriot League play with a loss.  With a six game league schedule, losses are a little more difficult to overcome. Lehigh might have an outside shot at an at large bid with a defeat. Given their 10 game schedule, the 1-3 Raiders have no room for error if they want to return to the postseason

The pass defense continues to be a major factor in Colgate’s recent slide. Cornell’s Dalton Banks (454 4 TDs) and Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta (307 yards 4 TDs) torched Colgate the last two weeks. For the season the Raiders are giving up 343 ypg to opposing quarterbacks. They will once again be challenged this week by a Lehigh passing attack that ranks 3rd in the country. Colgate’s ability to at least slow down the Mountain Hawk passing offense will go a long way in determining their fate. The Raiders will have to deal with duel-threat QB Nick Shafnisky who is expected to play this week after sitting out Lehigh’s game at Yale last Saturday.

Lehigh finished out of conference play with 3 straight (@ Penn, Princeton, @ Yale) double digit wins over the Ivy League. The offense averaged 51 ppg in those in those wins. The Mountain Hawks saw back-up quarterback Brad Mayes put up a record setting performance (524 passing yards) against Yale last week. Star WR Troy Pelletier is having a monster season to date. He currently leads the country in total receiving yards and ranks in the Top 5 in ypg and receptions.

It’s a good thing Lehigh’s offense has been racking up the points because the defense continues to struggle. There’s been overall improvement from last year’s debacle but the unit still has glaring weaknesses. The biggest of which is the rush “D” which ranks 113th (243 ypg) in the country. Colgate will test it from the start with QB Jake Mellville, who leads the team in rushing, and the talented RB duo of James Holland and Keyon Washington. This is not one of Colgate’s more powerful rushing attacks (170 ypg) but it’s certainly good enough to give Lehigh trouble. When the Raiders want to pass the ball they’ll first turn to WR John Maddaluna. The senior is coming off a monster (11 rec 261 yards 3 TDs) performance against Cornell.

Colgate won last year’s shootout 49-42 to secure the Patriot League title. A similar score might be in the cards on Saturday as long as the weather cooperates.

Of Note: Colgate and Lehigh are without question the two most dominant football programs in Patriot League history. The two have combined for 18 Patriot League Titles (Lehigh 10, Colgate 8) and 10 out of the leagues 13/FCS 1-AA playoff wins.

Lafayette at Fordham – 8 Oct. 1:00 P.M. Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

(Patriot League Network)

 The Leopards (1-4 0-1) will try to get their season turned aroung against Fordham (2-2) in an important early season conference game. Both teams enter the game off disappointing losses in which they led in the second half. Fordham controlled the play for much of their game against Monmouth but ultimately saw the Hawks steal the victory on a 2 point conversion in overtime. Lafayette got a great effort from back-up QB Blake Searfoss but a so-so defensive performance led to their demise in a 38-28 loss to Holy Cross. Focus and motivation could be key intangibles in this game. Lafayette’s season is on the brink of going off the cliff while Fordham can’t afford to lose this game if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Ram’s offense continues to roll along behind the play of RB Chase Edmonds (208 yards 4 TDs vs Monmouth). He’ll once again be the centerpiece of Fordham’s offensive attack against a Lafayette rush defense that’s been allowing 191 ypg so far this season. The Leopards will have to provide some level of resistance for Edmonds if they want to pull the upset.

While stopping Edmonds has proven to be a near impossible task for opponents, Lafayette should have some success against Fordham QB Kevin Anderson. The senior signal caller has had a productive season (56% completion, 243 ypg 8 TDs) so far but has failed to really take a game over against FCS competition. With league play starting, now would be a great time to assert himself in the Fordham offense. He will face a pretty solid pass defense (178 ypg) this weekend.

Lafayette will once again turn to Blake Searfoss at QB. Normal starting quarterback Drew Reed is still recovering from a vicious hit he took last week against Holy Cross. Searfoss had an excellent night (280 yards 4 TDs) filling in for the injured Reed. He’ll need another strong performance to offset Lafayette’s anemic rushing attack (63 ypg). The Leopards failed to take advantage of Holy Cross’s shaky rush defense so there’s little reason to think they can exploit Fordham’s (229 ypg). The Rams have been shorthanded along the DL since the start of the year.

Of Note: Lafayette pulled a surprising upset of nationally ranked Fordham in 2013 en route to the Patriot League title. The Leopards currently own 22-11-1 series lead but have lost 4 out 6 meetings against the Rams this decade.

Princeton at Georgetown – 8 Oct. 1:00 P.M. Cooper Field Washington D.C.

(Patriot League Network)

The Hoyas (3-1) face their third straight opponent from the Ancient Eight this week as the Princeton (2-1) Tigers pay a visit to the nation’s capital. Georgetown is coming off a tough 31-17 loss to Harvard in Cambridge. The Hoyas played reasonably well for most of the night but lacked the weapons on offense to seriously challenge the #24 Crimson. Princeton also figures to be a formidable opponent for Georgetown. The Tigers are coming off a 49-18 blowout win over Columbia. Georgetown narrowly defeated the Lions 17-14 two weeks ago.

Georgetown has to find a way to get their offense going if they want to challenge the better teams on their schedule. Tim Barnes has had some moments here and there but overall the Hoyas have been plagued by a lack of consistent production from the passing attack (173 ypg) since the Davidson game to open the season. The running game has also struggled (3.9 ypc, 123 ypg) to gain traction throughout the first half of the season. Princeton might not be the team to get the running game going (91 ypg allowed) but Tim Barnes and Co. should find some holes in their pass defense (345 ypg allowed). The Hoyas will likely need to put up 24+ plus points if they want to have a chance to pull the upset. That should be a reasonable goal since the Tigers are allowing 28 ppg through their first three games of the season.

Another big key for Georgetown will be controlling Princeton’s quirky, up tempo offense. When QB Chad Kanoff has the Tiger “O” rolling it is a brutally difficult unit to contain for 60 minutes. The Hoyas defense must be aware of trick plays. Princeton will often use back-up quarterback John Lovett in the running game (50 ypg) as a receiver (9 receptions 86 yards for season) and in his natural position at QB (13-20 136 yards 1 TD 1 INT). Stopping Princeton on first down and forcing them to get behind he chains will need to be an area the Hoya defense focuses on. Once the Tigers no huddle offense finds its rhythm points often come in bunches.

The last thing Georgetown wants is a shootout. They need to keep the game in the 20’s in order to have a chance to pull the upset. Given their solid defense (19 ppg) that’s not an impossible task. Taking down a talented Princeton team would really give the Hoyas a boost heading into Patriot League play.

Of Note: Georgetown is 1-6 all-time against Princeton. The Hoyas lost their first five meetings in series by a combined score of 79-0 before notching a 21-20 victory against the Tigers in 2012.

Bucknell at Holy Cross – 8 Oct. 1:05 P.M. Fitton Field Worcester, MA

(Patriot League Network)

 Fresh off their bye, Bucknell (1-3) heads to New England to face Holy Cross (2-3 1-0) in a key Patriot League contest. Holy Cross will be looking to start conference play 2-0 for the first time since 2011. The Crusaders were able to defeat Lafayette in Easton last week without the services of all-league quarterback Peter Pujals. Geoff Wade put forth an excellent performance (21-27 238 yards 4 TD) in the win. Bucknell has also dealt with an injury at the quarterback position. R.J. Nitti went down in the first half against Duquesne and missed the next two games. Junior Matt Muh started those games for Bucknell (both losses) before the bye. Muh and Wade are once again expected to be under center for their respective teams this weekend.

Like fellow Patriot Leaguer Georgetown, Bucknell needs to find a way to get their offense (19 ppg) going as conference play heats up. Matt Muh (245 ypg 4 TDs) did a solid job replacing Nitti against Cornell and VMI but neither start produced a win. He needs to find a way to get the ball in talented wide receiver Will Carter’s hands more often (24 rec. 78 ypg 3 TDs). Carter is close to breaking the school record for career receptions and career yards. He can really stretch the field if given the opportunity. The other key for Bucknell is getting RB Joey DeFloria some room to run again after a disappointing performance (11 carries 41 yards) in their loss to VMI.

The Holy Cross defense has struggled to keep teams out of the end zone to start the year. The Crusaders are giving up a league worst 34 ppg. Given the amount of points they’re allowing, it shouldn’t be a surprise that opponents are having success through the air (225 ypg) and on the ground (208 ypg) against Holy Cross. The Bison would be wise to hand the ball off to DeFloria early and often Saturday in order to loosen up an average at best Crusader front seven. If the Bison can find success on the ground, passing lanes should open for Muh.

Even without Pujals, the Crusaders offense remains extremely potent. All-league WR Branden Flaherty returned from injury last week and his impact was immediately felt (led team in rushing and receiving). Back-up quarterback Geoff Wade also has Richie DiNicola (36 rec. 72 ypg 3 TDs) and Jake Wieczorek (34 rec 79 ypg 2 TDs) to utilize in the passing attack. Holy Cross’s only real deficiency on offense is the lack of a true featured back. Diquan Walker has gotten most of the carries but is averaging less thank 60 ypg.

The Bison defense is playing well (21 ppg allowed) but it’s not at the level it has been in recent years. Holy Cross should have some success putting up points on it. That means Muh and the rest of the Bucknell skill guys will need to produce if the Bison want to end their 3 game losing streak.

Of Note: Holy Cross leads the all-time series 21-11 and has won 9 out of the last 11 meetings. Holy Cross won last year’s meeting in Lewisburg 23-7.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-10-06 – CAA SotC Show

What the heck is “SotC”?

State of the Conference.  These are short 10 to 15 minute shows we will be doing every once in a while.  Should be a different conferences each week if I got my guess right.  This week, it is the CAA.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC: Week 6 Preview

MVFC LogoOne week into the MVFC and Missouri State already has conference win…how crazy is that? So now we’re on to Week 6 of the FCS college football season and Week 2 of the MVFC.

I want to start by pointing out that if you’re looking for something to fill your audio gap between episodes of the FCS Wedge Podcast (a great podcast for any fan of FCS football…and this is something I would have said well before I was at all affiliated with this site), the MVFC has their own podcast now that (so far) involves interviews with people affiliated with various MVFC teams: broadcasters for various teams, as well as current K-State Associate Director for Football, Jerry Kill (former SIU, NIU, and Minnesota Head Coach). If you’re interested in checking those out, you can listen and subscribe to those at the Valley Football First and Goal website.

Here are the matchups for this Saturday (all times listed in Central and all rankings from the AGS Weekly Poll):

#13 Youngstown State at #25 Illinois State – 2 PM
#1 North Dakota State at #33 Missouri State – 2 PM
#11 Northern Iowa at South Dakota – 2 PM
#31 Indiana State at #16 Western Illinois – 3 PM
#12 South Dakota State at Southern Illinois – 6 PM

All games available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com

#13 Youngstown State at #25 Illinois State – 2 PM

Youngstown State is now 3-1 on the season and 1-0 in the MVFC following a fairly solid 30-20 win at home against South Dakota, where the score ended up being closer than most of the game seemed. Illinois State’s season, however, has figuratively fallen off a cliff, now having lost three straight games after their win at Northwestern. They are 2-3 overall, and 0-2 in the conference having lost their most recent game at the Fargodome against NDSU, 31-10. The Redbirds will begin to attempt to salvage their conference season with their Homecoming Game against the Penguins.

Youngstown State comes into this weekend not really blowing anyone out of the water with their stats, but quietly putting together a solid season with their defense’s ability to keep the opponents scoring to a minimum. The Penguin defense is currently allowing 18.5 points per game, good for 7th in the FCS. Primarily, it’s the (FCS 10th ranked) run defense that’s only allowing 92.3 yards per game, but some of it also falls on the efficiency of the offense. YSU nabs just over 16 ½ yards per completion (6th in the FCS) and puts up over 262 yards per game on the ground. What this tells me is that they are primarily a running team (led by RB Martin Ruiz with 91.8 yards per game and 6 TDs) that occasionally passes to help spread out the defense (no players have over 44 yards per game receiving), and when they pass, they are fairly good at it, with their QB Ricky Davis currently 19th in the FCS in passing efficiency rating. This play calling style lends itself well to long sustained drives, which is why the Penguins are currently #2 in the FCS in time of possession, holding onto the ball for an average of just under 35 minutes per game. Another thing that stands out to me is that this style of gameplay…not flashy, but efficient…is very similar to a very successful MVFC team in the far north. I’m not saying YSU is on the level of NDSU at this point (not many teams are), but they’re definitely taking a page from the Bison playbook in terms of their areas of focus, and it seems to be working well for them so far.

Illinois State on the other hand, has had a rough go of things over the last three games. Now, to be fair, two of the games (one especially) are kinda “rivalry games” where the opponent always seems to play them tough no matter how good or bad they’re supposed to be that year, and the other was against the Bison…who, if they’re on point, can make just about anyone look like a bad team. There’s not actually a ton that stands out to me about the Redbirds stat-wise. They are pretty good and not beating themselves with penalties (12th fewest in FCS) although it seems like the ones they do get are kinda high-yardage ones (34th in penalty yards per game). In general, their defense is pretty decent, holding teams to 313 yards and 21.8 points per game (15th and 22nd in the FCS respectively) but their offense is significantly down from what we’ve gotten used to from them over the last few years. QB Jake Kolbe is currently 6th in the FCS in completion percentage, mostly throwing to WR Anthony Warrum (97 yards per game and 2 TDs) but more recently has been including WR Anthony Fowler in the gameplan, who picked up 119 yards and a TD receiving last week against NDSU.

Overall, I feel like YSU is “trending up” while ISU is heading in the opposite direction. If the Redbirds aren’t able to right the ship against the Penguins at Homecoming, then it could end up being a very long season for the “Normal Boys”. I think that the matchups between the various offenses and defenses points me in the direction of a low scoring, somewhat close YSU victory.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 6

#1 North Dakota State at #33 Missouri State

The Bison hit the road for only the second time this season after having dismantled the ISU Redbirds last weekend in the dome to the tune of 31-10, and are currently 4-0 on the season and 1-0 in the conference. Missouri State is, so far, been something of a surprise this season, having won last week at Indiana State 45-24. That win brought them to 3-1 for the season, 1-0 in the conference and allowed them to surpass their entire points total from last season.

North Dakota State rolls into Springfield, MO this Saturday with the a team that (as mentioned in the previous game’s section) isn’t flashy, but just flat-out works. The Bison’s “bread and butter” is the ground game, where they are good on both sides of the ball…16th in the FCS in rushing offense, 6th in the FCS in rushing defense, and 1st in the FCS in time of possession. Through the air though, they’ve had a few issues, although part of that could be because they were playing some pretty good passing teams. Still, they’ve allowed 261 yards per game through the air, which is 96th in the FCS. Essentially, it looks like the way to beat the Bison, if it happens this year, is to have a very good passing offense to take advantage of one of their few weaknesses.

The Missouri State Bears also have a very good rushing defense (5th in the FCS) although the rushing offense isn’t quite as good (35th in the FCS). Their offense in general is fairly “middle of the road” in terms of where they’re ranked in the FCS, although they did put up 473 yards and 45 points at Indiana State last weekend, led by WR Malik Earl’s 161 yards and 2 TDs receiving and RB Calan Crowder’s 131 yards and 3 TDs rushing. Their defense is led by LB Dylan Cole, who had 13 tackles against ISU and is currently averaging 8.75 tackles per game. Cole also had 1 tackle for loss, 1 forced fumble, and 1 interception returned for 13 years, which all combined to net him both the MVFC and the STATS FCS Defensive Player of the Week awards for last weekend’s performance.

So, overall, MSU looks to be a good bit improved over what we’ve seen the last few years. Improved enough to beat NDSU?….unlikely. Will it be better for them than last year’s 55-0 walloping at the Fargodome?…I’d say probably. I think it’ll be a win for the Bison, but the Bears will keep things a little closer than the blowout that you saw last year.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 28

#11 Northern Iowa at South Dakota

Up next, a battle of two “domed” teams, with the Northern Iowa Panthers boarding their busses outside of the UNIDome in Cedar Falls, then heading 4 hours down Route 20 across the state of Iowa, and just across the border to South Dakota, where they’ll roll up in Vermillion at the DakotaDome (I assume they’re taking a bus and not flying, since it’s only a 4 hour drive). UNI is 2-2 overall and 1-0 in MVFC play after doubling up Southern Illinois last weekend, 42-21, in a win that they desperately needed after 2 straight losses to good FCS teams. The South Dakota Coyotes are 1-3 overall and 0-1 in the MVFC after traveling to Youngstown State and falling 30-20 to the Penguins.

Like a good number of MVFC teams, the visiting Panthers are a pretty run-heavy team, led by QB Aaron Bailey, who isn’t the greatest throwing QB in the conference, but he might be the best running QB in the conference. He has an average of 172.3 yards per game and 5 TDs through the air, but also has contributed 80.3 yards per game and 4 TDs on the ground. He is also very good at making smart decisions (in large part probably since he knows he can run it pretty effectively if he needs to), leading the FCS (tied with Wofford) for number of passes intercepted with 0 through their 4 games. The other primary rusher is RB Tyvis Smith with 80.75 yards per game and 2 TDs. Defensively, UNI is very strong against the run, allowing only 68 yards per game (4th in the FCS) although they’ve allowed 255.3 yards per game through the air (92nd in the FCS)…like some of the other MVFC teams though, this stat is probably somewhat skewed by the fact that they played a couple of very good Big Sky teams in their OOC schedule…a conference generally known for high-powered aerial offenses. Their defense has a couple of standouts on the squad: LB Jared Farley leads the team in tackles with 31, 2 for loss, along with 1 interception, and DL Karter Schult who has put up 26 tackles, with an incredible (and FCS leading) 13 for loss including 7.5 sacks. Schult also has 1 interception for 20 yards and 1 forced fumble.

The host Coyotes have struggled this season, only putting up 368.5 total yards per game, while giving up 457.3 yards per game. They do have a couple of bright spots on their team, with the run game putting up 198.8 yards per game (22nd in the FCS). They are actually in a similar situation as UNI is currently, with a strong running QB (Chris Streveler) putting up just about the same number of yards on the ground as their other leading RB…in this case Trevor Bouma. Streveler has 90.5 yards per game on the ground and 4 TDs, Bouma has 89.8 yards on the ground and 1 TD. Passing, Streveler puts up 162 yards per game and has 11 TDs vs 5 interceptions. The “top” receiver for the team, Shamar Jackson, has hauled in 34.2 yards per game and has 4 TDs. Another area of interest for USD is their kicking game. USD kicker/punter Miles Bergner is a perfect 6-6 on field goals, including a 45-yarder against YSU and a 50-yarder in a loss at non-conference rival North Dakota. Bergner also handles punting and kickoff duties, averaging 62 yards per kickoff and 47.0 yards per punt, including a long of 64 and 8 of his 23 punts being 50 or more yards.

Comparing the two teams, they both have a similar style…running QB, pass when needed, but not a huge amount, better at stopping the run than they are at stopping the pass, but I think UNI is quite a bit better at most of those facets than USD is at the moment. I’m going to have to go with a UNI win in this game.

TL:DR – Northern Iowa by 13

#31 Indiana State at #16 Western Illinois

Indiana State heads across the Land of Lincoln to take on Western Illinois for the Leathernecks’ Homecoming Game. ISU brings a somewhat confusing record, having beaten Butler (expected), losing to Minnesota (expected), beating a SEMO team that beat Eastern IL (not entirely unexpected), then beating Illinois State (rather unexpected) and then losing by quite a bit at home to Missouri State (wat?!?!?). Kinda feels like nearly halfway into the season and we haven’t really figured out much of anything about the Sycamores. Western on the other hand, started off hot, winning their first 3 including a win over FBS Northern Illinois, and then followed it up with what has apparently become our annual shellacking at the hands of an XDSU squad (this time a 38-point loss to SDSU).

Digging into the details on the Sycamores, we find a halfway decent passing offense (298 yards per game) and a pretty “meh” rushing offense (125.2 yards per game). QB Isaac Harker has been doing pretty well though, ranking 15th in the FCS in passing yards per game 287 and 9th in passing TDs (11 total). He’s much more of your typical passing QB than some of the other ones I’ve mentioned (like at UNI and USD), having essentially no rushing yards credited to him. His primary target is WR Robert Tonyan, who accounts for 73.2 yards per game and 5 receiving TDs. Also, WR Bob Pugh, who was out last game with a sprained ankle, is expected to play in this game…he’s been putting together 61.5 yards per game receiving, a few yards on the ground, as well as handling punt and kick return duties, adding up to team-leading 120.5 all-purpose yards per game. ISU has the 97th ranked defense in the FCS, allowing 445.6 yards per game, and the 102nd ranked scoring defense at 36.6 points per game. LB Jameer Thurman is currently #2 in the conference for total tackles with 46, including 7 for loss, 1 sack, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery. DB Tsali Lough also contributes significantly with 35 total tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble and recovery.

The Leathernecks are more of a run-oriented team, despite having a couple of pretty good receivers in Lance Lenoir (averaging 103.3 yards per game) and Joey Borsellino (56 yards per game). RB Steve McShane is, despite being held to only 56 yards in the game at SDSU, is still 5th in the FCS for rushing yards per game with 124.5. QB Sean McGuire has thrown for 218.25 yards per game and has 6 TDs and 2 interceptions (both against SDSU last week). Those two interceptions are actually the only turnovers the Leathernecks have had this season, otherwise holding onto the ball fairly well…they’re still #2 in the FCS for lost turnovers. The other thing that the Leathernecks are really good at is red zone defense (1st in the FCS). Essentially, if a team gets into the red zone, the Leathernecks are very good at stopping them. This is largely due to the abilities of LB Brett Taylor (39 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 1 interception) as well as a few talented defensive line guys who have stepped up this year. The problem, however, is that the DBs are young and frequently get burned by long pass plays (115th in passing yards allowed)…which often are from outside the 20 yard line. For example, last weekend against SDSU, the Jackrabbits put up 52 points on Western, yet only made it inside the red zone once (and then, only just barely, scoring from the 17 yard line). The average offensive TD reception that WIU gave up was from 32 yards out.

So, a Leathernecks team, heading home for Homecoming, following a pretty substantial loss that they were expected to compete closely in…I think they’ll be pretty angry about that. The Leathernecks offense is good enough that they should be able to put a decent amount of points on ISU’s defense, and I think that, other than an occasional long pass to Tonyan or Pugh, they should be able to contain the ISU offense, especially if the front line is able to get pressure on their QB Harker. This should be made easier for the Leathernecks due to a significant number of ISU O-linemen being out due to injury (I’ve heard 3 of the starters, but I’ll have to double check that number). I think that Western will come out angry and pound the ball all afternoon, resulting in a fairly solid Leatherneck Homecoming victory.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 14

#12 South Dakota State at Southern Illinois

The Jackrabbits are headed down to Carbondale, IL to take on the Salukis this Saturday. SDSU is 2-2 on the season following a 38-point utter obliteration of Western Illinois last weekend, and are now 1-0 in the conference. SIU meanwhile, is coming back from being doubled up by the UNI Panthers to the tune of 42-21. Southern is also 2-2 overall, but is 0-1 in the conference.

SDSU boasts one of the most impressive passing attacks in all of the FCS, possibly second only to Eastern Washington (if everyone is healthy). QB Taryn Christion currently leads the FCS in passing efficiency, is third in passing TDs and is 11th for passing yards per game with 292.5. His primary receiving targets are probably the 2nd best WR in the FCS (behind EWU’s Cooper Kupp) in Jake Wieneke (currently #1 in receiving TDs in the FCS and 13th in receiving yards per game with 107.8) and very possibly the best receiving TE in the FCS currently (I could be wrong, but I haven’t heard much from anyone else, and on the receiving TDs list, he’s double the next TE) with Dallas Goedert, who is currently at 3rd on the receiving TDs list (that’s correct…SDSU has the #1 and #3 TD receivers in the country) and 8th in receiving yards per game with 113.3. A large part of Goedert’s numbers are boosted by his performance against Western last weekend, where he caught 204 yards and 4 TDs. On the SDSU Defense, they have two players at 34 total tackles, LB Christian Rozeboom (who also has 1.5 sacks and a 37-yard interception returned for TD) and LB Jesse Bobbit (who also has an interception). DB Dallas Brown is the team leader in “tackles for loss” with 4.5 (and an interception returned for a TD).

SIU also has a pretty good offense (although not on the level of SDSU) with the FCS 8th ranked passing offense led by Senior DII transfer QB Josh Straughan. Straughan is currently 5th in the FCS in passing yards per game with 307 and 17th in passing TDs with 9. The receiving yardage is pretty spread out amongst a few players, with nobody getting more than 61 yards per game receiving, but 3 guys getting around 50-60…so…it’s kinda like WR-by-committee (you know, like RB-by-committee, but with receivers). Their top RB is Daquan Isom, who’s currently averaging 75 yards per game, but only has 1 TD. They also have a pretty dangerous kick return guy in RB DJ Davis who has averaged 32 yards per kick return (4th in the FCS) and has 1 return for a TD so far this season. LB Chase Allen leads the team in tackles with 30 including a sack as well as 1 forced fumble. DE Deondre Barnett has 5 tackles for loss, including 4 sacks and is currently SIU’s sack leader. One area that SIU does not do well in is penalties; they’re currently averaging 9 penalties per game for 84 yards.

As for who’s likely to come out on top of this matchup? I’d say if SDSU’s offense has anything like the game they had last weekend, they’ll be putting up a ton of points. There’s not many defenses out there that are geared to be able to shut down SDSU’s weapons…maybe someone like Chattanooga…maybe NDSU, but they’re better equipped to stop the run game? Will SIU’s passing attack be able to keep up with the Jackrabbits? I doubt it. I think it’ll be a fairly high scoring game overall…maybe something like 70 total points or so, but SDSU should come away with a win by a pretty decent margin.

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 10

Big South: Week 6 Preview

(2-3) Liberty OPEN

Liberty has a week off in really the ideal spot for an open date, the middle of the season and just before the start of conference play.

What Liberty has to do in the bye week:  Get any injuries healed up and get new starting QB Buckshot Calvert – I’m not even calling him ‘Steven’ anymore; ‘Buckshot’ is more fun – more first-team reps in practice.

Best case scenario for Liberty – Liberty uses the bye week to prepare for the unconventional offense of their first conference opponent, Kennesaw State.

Worst case scenario – Realistically, there isn’t one.  Liberty hasn’t generated a lot of momentum to lose nor are they in a slump.  The Flames have lost to the teams they should have lost to and beaten the ones they should’ve beaten.  Essentially, this open date is more or less a reset going into Big South play.

 

(2-3)  Albany State  @ (3-2) Charleston Southern – Thursday, Oct 6th,7:00pm (Big South Network)  POSTPONED

With Hurricane Matthew approaching the east coast, the administrators at CSU and Albany State agreed on short notice to move up their game and play it Thursday evening made the decision to close campus effective immediately. The CSU-Albany State football game has been postponed without word as to when the game will be made up.  The two teams do not share an open date this season so the makeup date will likely be in 2017 or beyond.

Given the predicted track of the hurricane, closing the school and cancelling events seems like a prudent decision.  CSU’s next scheduled game is October 22nd against Presbyterian.

What Charleston Southern has to do against Hurricane Matthew:  Hunker down, board up the windows and stay safe, Bucs.  We’ll see you on the other side.

 

(3-2) Monmouth @ (1-4) Howard  – Saturday, Oct. 8th, 1:00pm

After their huge win against Fordham last weekend, Monmouth heads down I-95 to the nation’s capital to visit the Howard Bison of the MEAC conference.  This game should be entirely unaffected by weather.

Howard comes into the game fresh off their first win of the season against Norfolk State.  Howard initially spotted NSU a 21-6 lead after one quarter but methodically chipped away at the deficit over the second and third before pulling away in the fourth quarter for a 33-28 win.  Prior to that, HU had been generally non-competitive in most of their other games.  Statistically, it appears that Howard puts an emphasis on running the ball and rushing defense but, despite the focus on them, those aren’t things that the Bison do particularly well.

Coming off the big win last week and with a short week to prepare for a conference foe next week as well as going on the road against a team that’s not at all deep but has athletes at the skill positions, this has all the classic markings of a trap game for Monmouth.  However, I just don’t think Howard is good enough to make that happen.  If the RB/WR combination of Ed Royds and Reggie White, Jr. continues to emerge, Monmouth should jump out to a pretty good lead early.  Hawk fans can expect to see lots of action for backup quarterback and Baltimore native, Kenji Bahar.

What Monmouth has to do against Howard:  Dominate up front.  Howard’s OL is big but not athletic overall while their DL isn’t even that.  If Monmouth controls the line of scrimmage, they can control the game.

Best case scenario for Monmouth against Howard – Get in, score lots of points early and build a lead.  Don’t let Howard hang around.

Worst case scenario for Gardner-Webb – They let Howard hang around.  The Bison have already played Maryland and Rutgers this year so they won’t be wowed by the Monmouth Hawks.  The longer they stay in the game, the better the chance they make Monmouth regret it.

 

(3-2) Missouri S&T @ (3-1) Kennesaw State – Saturday, Oct 8st  1:00pm EST (Big South Network)

A week removed from hammering a struggling Furman team, Kennesaw returns home to face the Miners of Missouri S&T.  Missouri S&T hail from Rolla, Missouri and the Great Lakes Valley Conference in Division 2, aka., the Pioneer League’s non-conference opponents of choice.

MoST currently sit at 3-2 having, to this point, faced a full slate of D2 opponents.  The Miners are currently rated just 73rd out of 171 teams but, offensively, are moving the ball through the air pretty well.  Defensively, they’re taking the ball away pretty well and the effect is a scoring average of 38 points a game.  While they come from a lower-division and a fairly weak conference overall, MoST is probably an upgrade from the Point team KSU played a month ago.

That being said, the Miners still should not present a significant challenge to the Owls of Kennesaw State.  The KSU offense was on full display against Furman as they put up 49 first half points on their SoCon opponent.  It’s probably not realistic to assume that level of efficiency and ferocity is the new norm for KSU but, now, we definitely know that it’s possible.  At the same time, the KSU defense is rounding into shape as well.  DB Dante Blackmon now has four interceptions in his last two games and the Owl defense as a unit has eight takeaways in that same span.

What Kennesaw has to do against Furman – Same as before, protect the football and protect the quarterback.  Kennesaw did the former well against Furman with zero turnovers and almost accomplished the latter.  Chandler Burks again took some heavy shots against Furman was knocked out of the game midway through fourth quarter but he returned on the following drive.  With starting quarterback Trey White’s health still unknown, it’s imperative that Burks remain upright.

Best case scenario for Kennesaw against Missouri S&T – Keep doing what they’ve been doing and maintain their positive momentum.  Nothing breeds winning like more winning.

Worst case scenario for Kennesaw against Furman – Injuries.  The key to running the option offense effectively is timing and injuries disrupt that in a big way.  With conference play starting next week, consistency and maintaining the offensive efficiency is massively important. Backup QB Daniel David has filled in very capably for KSU thus far but it’s obvious that Burks provides something to the offense that David doesn’t at this point.

 

(1-3)    Presbyterian @   (2-3)   Gardner-Webb – Saturday, October 8th, 6:00pm (ESPN3, Big South Network)

At last check of Matthew-related cancellations, this game is still on.  Located an hour due west of Charlotte, NC, Gardner-Webb is not expected to face anything close to the full force of the storm but it will likely be in extremely soggy conditions.

A year ago, these two teams were both equally stalwart on defense and just lousy on offense.  This season, both teams have slipped a bit defensively but Gardner-Webb has managed to mold their offense into something that better fits the skills of QB Tyrell Maxwell.  Presbyterian, on the other hand, doesn’t know exactly who their quarterback is.  Starter Ben Cheek hasn’t played since being injured at Chattanooga on September 10th and, Will Brock, the guy who replaced him, left PC’s most recent game with a leg injury of his own.  Unless Cheek returns, that means the Blue Hose will turn to either John Walker – who has only one quarter’s playing time in his career – or yet another untested, unnamed player at the position.  The Presbyterian roster lists seven names at quarterback so it’s not as if PC head coach Harold Nichols doesn’t have options.

So, what can we expect from this game?  If nothing changes between now and kickoff time, the weather will dictate everything.  Gardner-Webb’s Spangler Stadium has an artificial playing surface so the game won’t be played in a mud-pit but the field, the ball and the players will all be very, very, very wet.  Both offenses rely heavily on the running game so we should expect to see heavy doses of RB’s Darrell Bridges and Khalil Lewis but, thanks to the conditions, well, a lot more Bridges and Lewis.  Bridges is a pounding every-down back who carried the ball 32 times against Campbell while Lewis will probably split some carries with Maxwell.

In this kind of game, special teams is everything and the players with the most individual impact on the game will probably be riding the bench for most of it.  G-W’s kicker Paul Schumacher probably has a slight edge in field goals while Presby’s Brett Norton has a slight edge in punting.  Of course, under adverse conditions, one slippery snap or one shanked kick could make all the difference.

What Presbyterian needs to do against Gardner-Webb:  Play field position and hold the ball.  The worse the weather, the better the situation for Presbyterian.  Defensively, PC has been shaky against the pass recently and, while G-W’s Maxwell has improved in that area, the storm could take that aspect away.  Gardner-Webb likes to run the ball to the edges out of spread formations while Presby prefers to do it up the middle and off tackle out of power looks.  In a game where every inch of north-south movement is prized, that works to Presbyterian’s advantage.

What Gardner-Webb needs to do against Presbyterian:  See above.  Strike that.  Reverse it.  Presbyterian’s passing game hasn’t been particularly effective under the best of conditions.  In this situation, Gardner-Webb can probably put eight or nine players in the box to defend Bridges.

Best case scenario for either team – Get to 13 points.  The first team to win that race and get 13 points out of any phase of the game probably wins it.

FCS TV/Streaming Guide: Week 6

Provided by FargoBison on AGS again this week.  ALL TIMES CENTRAL.

 

TV Guide:
10/6
Norfolk State at North Carolina A&T 6:30 p.m. ESPNU: 208 WatchESPN
10/8
Rhode Island at Villanova 11 a.m. NESN: 628 / SNY: 639 / (CSMA: 642 / CSCA: 698)
Cornell at Harvard noon OWS: 623
Alabama State at Prairie View 2 p.m. Root Sports SW: 674
North Dakota State at Missouri State 2 p.m. NBC ND/ESPN3
Youngstown State at ISU 2 p.m. CSNC: 665
Stephen F. Austin at Nicholls 2:30 p.m. CSBA: 696
William & Mary at JMU 2:30 p.m. SNY: 639 / (CSCA: 698 / CSMA: 642)
Mississippi Valley State @ Montana | 3:30pm | Altitude / DirectTV 681
NAU at Montana State 6 p.m. RSNW: 687 / RSRM: 683 / RSSW: 674 *1 / AUD: 601
Stony Brook at Towson 6 p.m. CSNE: 630 / SNY: 639 / / (CSMA: 642 / CSCA: 698)
Wofford at Western Carolina 6 p.m. MASN2: 640-1

ESPN3
Samford at Furman noon
Dartmouth at Yale noon
ETSU at VMI 12:30 p.m.
Tennessee Tech at Jacksonville State 1 p.m.
Drake at Valpo 1 p.m.
Northern Iowa at South Dakota 2 p.m.
Youngstown State at Illinois State 2 p.m.
Saint Francis at Robert Morris 2 p.m.
North Dakota State at Missouri State 2 p.m.
Texas State at Georgia State 2:30 p.m.
Indiana State at Western Illinois 3 p.m.
Presbyterian at Gardner Webb 5 p.m.
McNeese State at Southeastern Louisiana 6 p.m.
SDSU at SIU 6 p.m.
Sam Houston State at Incarnate Word 6 p.m.

ESPN Extra:
Northern Iowa at South Dakota 2 p.m.
Youngstown State at Illinois State 2 p.m.

Hyperlinks to other FCS games (FREE) online:

Big Sky Conference

Big South Conference

Colonial Athletic Association

Northeast Conference

OVC Conference

Patriot League

SoCon Digital Network

Guide to all games on TV or online webcasts

The FCS Wedge – 2016-10-05- LISTEN UP!

Wow, this is a good show so jump in to the groove of this week’s FCS topics with Lance & Kris.  They go over the large number of Top 25 AGS ranked teams taking a tumble down the list this week due to some head scratching losses.  They hit the AGS Top 25 list like usual and they do so with the eloquence of a 1970’s Casey Kasem.

The fellas like to prep us minions for the bigger games of the week and they hit the Richmond/Albany affair along with several others that I’ll let them surprise you with.  Lastly this week, defense, you can’t win dumb sign contests without it so the boys go over some of the possible ICYMI defensive standouts so far this season.  You should listen, it’s fun.  Consider this our long distance dedication to you.

You’re welcome.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

CAA Conference: Week 5 Review and Power Rankings

As we wrap up week five of FCS play, we are left with a few takeaways; James Madison has cemented itself as the top team in the CAA, and everything else is pure mayhem. If anyone could have bet during the preseason that by week five we would see a win over William and Mary by Elon, or that Richmond who was the preseason pick to win the conference would take a loss to Stony Brook they would be very rich. One thing is for sure, with the meat grinder the is the CAA, no team is safe.

Rhode Island 28, Brown 13

The Rhode Island Rams did just enough against Brown to get the job done on Saturday and pick up their second win of the season. Rhode Island had a total of 264 yards with the majority of those coming on the ground finishing the day with 180 yards of total rushing. RB Harold Cooper of the Rams was their leading rusher of the day coming in at 135 yards off of 18 carries and two touchdowns.

James Madison 43, Delaware 20

James Madison has cemented itself as the current number one in the conference at the moment, and they showed us why during their 43 to 20 drubbing of Delaware on Saturday. The Dukes outgained the Blue Hens by a margin of 607 total yards to the Blue Hens 437 total yards. QB Bryan Schor led the Dukes in passing yards throwing for 209 yards and a touchdown. On the ground, RB Abdullah pounded the ball rushing 159 yards on ten carries and reaching the end zone twice for the Dukes.

Villanova 42, Elon 7

This week was the chance for Elon to show the CAA that their win against William and Mary during week four would help to propel them forward and emerge as contenders for the conference title. Unfortunately for the Phoenix, Villanova had other plans as QB Zack Bednarczyk passed the ball for 270 yards and three touchdowns. In all, Elon only gained 130 total yards compared to Villanova’s 557 total yards. That coupled with the T.O.P mismatch of Villanova’s 40:54 compared to Elon’s 19:06, helped to seal the deal for Villanova and dash the hopes of the Phoenix in week 5.

Maine 35, Bryant 31

The Black Bears were in the fight of their lives on Saturday as they overcame a 21-point deficit to beat the Bulldogs of Bryant. The Bulldogs led until the mid-second quarter when Maine was finally able to get some points on the board off of a three-yard touchdown pass from Micah Wright to Dan Collins. The Black Bears would eventually battle back in the third quarter and take the lead in the fourth, squeaking out their first win of the season.

New Hampshire 21, William and Mary 12

The Tribe of William and Mary were hoping to bounce back after their week four loss to Elon, but the UNH Wildcats had other plans. Early in the first quarter, the Tribe took the lead from a 36 yard run by Kendall Andersen, but the PAT would miss its mark to keep the Tribe at six points. The Wildcats would capitalize off of the missed PAT early in the second when they would go up 7-6 on the Tribe off of a 28-yard TD run from Trevor Knight. The Cats would go on to score two more touchdowns while the Tribe would only secure one more score to come away with a 21-12 Homecoming win.

Richmond 31, Towson 28

The Spiders of Richmond barely escaped alive Saturday night against the Tigers of Towson. Towson would lead into the fourth quarter until David Broadus of Richmond would find the end zone on a two-yard run to take the lead for the Spiders and squeak away with a 31-28 victory over the Tigers.

 

Power Rankings:

  1. James Madison
  2. Villanova
  3. Richmond
  4. Albany
  5. New Hampshire
  6. Stony Brook
  7. Towson
  8. Maine
  9. Delaware
  10. William and Mary
  11. Elon
  12. Rhode Island

Must Watch Week 6

Week 6 presents some unique challenges in picking the twelve best games to watch. Without further ado, here are the Must Watch games for Week 6 and a breakdown of why you need to be watching.

Saturday, October 8th Time(CST) TV
Colgate @ Lehigh 11:30am  STREAM
Cornell @ Harvard 12:00pm STREAM
Tennessee Tech @ Jacksonville State 1:00pm ESPN3
North Dakota State @ Missouri State 2:00pm ESPN3
Youngstown State @ Illinois State 2:00pm ESPN3
Richmond @ Albany 2:30pm STREAM
William and Mary  @ James Madison 2:30pm STREAM
Indiana State @ Western Illinois 3:00pm ESPN3
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington 3:00pm STREAM
Mercer @ Chattanooga 3:00pm STREAM
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois 6:00pm STREAM
Stony Brook @ Towson 6:00pm Comcast Sports/ STREAM
  • Colgate entered 2016 as the clear-cut favorite to repeat as the Patriot League champions. The Raiders are coming off of a quarterfinal appearance in 2015 and they returned quite a bit of their squad. Their season is off to a rough 1-3 start, including last weeks 1 point loss to Cornell.  Lehigh was picked 3rd in the preseason PL poll. After losing their first two games to Monmouth and Villanova, by a total of 7 points the Mountain Hawks picked up 3 straight wins over the Ivy League. This is both teams first PL game of the 2016 season and it could be the deciding factor in who gets the league’s 2016 auto-bid.
  • Cornell and Harvard are both off to a 3-0 start. The Big Red picked up a one point win over Colgate last weekend which gives the impression that they might be able compete with Harvard and Penn for the Ivy League title. Cornell was picked last in the league’s preseason poll. We will find out where they stand on Saturday.
  • Jacksonville State is the returning runner-up in FCS football and they are undefeated against FCS opponents in 2016 (their only loss came to LSU). Tennessee Tech is coming off of an overtime upset over Eastern Kentucky. Can the Golden Eagles keep the magic coming?
  • When I woke up on Saturday morning I would have never thought this game would be on my list for Week 6. Then the unexpected happened: Missouri State beat Indiana State (who beat Illinois State, who beat Northwestern). The only thing that really demonstrates is that the Bears have a pulse. I would be shocked if this was a game, but it seems worth checking out what the Bears can do against the Bison. Worst case scenario you are watching the #1 team in the country.
  • Illinois State is on a 3 game losing streak to FCS opponents since their Week 2 win over Northwestern (FBS/Big Ten). Youngstown State is off to a 3-1 start with their only loss on the road to West Virginia (FBS/Big 12). Youngstown State has been notorious for fast starts and falling off as the season moves on, but the Redbirds really need a win here with their backs up against the wall. Should be a good one.
  • Early in the season Richmond was seen as a team with the best chance to dethrone North Dakota State. Then they got blown out by Stony Brook and voters weren’t sure what to make of them. They have bounced back and now it’s time to see what Albany is made of. The Great Danes are off to a 4-0 start with a FBS win under their belt, but there are a lot of non-believers. With a win this weekend Albany would have to completely fall apart to miss the playoffs.
  • William and Mary went from the Top 10 to out of the polls after back-to-back losses to Elon and New Hampshire. Things don’t get easier as they take on their in-state rival, James Madison who has yet to be challenged by and FCS opponent. They have won their four FCS games by an average of 35 points. Will James Madison roll the Tribe on their way to the top of the CAA?
  • Western Illinois is looking to get back on track after a beat down in Brookings against South Dakota State. Indiana State fell to Missouri State, giving the Bears their first MVFC win since Oct 2014. Which team bounces back and fights for a playoff spot?
  • Northern Colorado is 3-1 after picking up a surprising win over a Northern Arizona squad that many expected to be at the top of the Big Sky. This week they head to Eastern Washington where the Eagles are the clear pick to win the Big Sky at this point in the season. Are the Bears up for the challenge?
  • This game would be huge if Mercer hadn’t lost to the Citadel by one point in Week 1 of the season. Chattanooga hasn’t been challenged outside of their Week 3 game against Furman. Can the Bears (3rd game involving Bears in a row? That has to be a new record.) liven up the SoCon race ?
  • Tennessee State is off to a 4-0 start including a win in their first OVC game of the season. Eastern Illinois is riding a roller coaster of highs and lows, winning three straight after their season opening loss to Western Illinois, but then losing a head scratcher to Southeastern Missouri State. Will the Tigers continue their undefeated season or will the Panthers get back on track for a playoff spot?
  • Stony Brook has been hard to read in 2016. They have alternated wins and losses every week for a 2-2 start. The Seawolves shocked the country with a 42-14 win over Richmond and then turned around the next week and lost 38-10 to Sacred Heart. Towson’s season is on life support. They are already 0-2 in the CAA and can’t afford another loss if they want this to be a meaningful season.