Patriot League: Week 10 Preview

The calendar has turned to November which means some teams are playing for a championship, some are playing for their playoff lives while others are already looking towards next year. Each Patriot League game this weekend features teams that fall into one of those categories. The most interesting game on paper is Colgate’s visit to Fordham. Both teams can still capture a share of the league title if the chips fall in the right place. Fordham, more so than Colgate, also has an outside shot at an at large bid into the FCS playoffs with a strong finish to the year. The other game that will have title and possible playoff ramifications features red hot Lehigh hosting Bucknell. Lehigh can wrap up their first playoff appearance since 2011 and at worst a co-championship with a win. With a 2-1 league record, Bucknell would climb into the race with a win. The third game of the weekend, Holy Cross-Georgetown, is all about pride. There’s no league title, playoffs or even a winning season at stake when the two meet in Washington D.C.

Bucknell at #20 Lehigh – 5 Nov 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

(Patriot League Network)

Lehigh (7-2, 4-0) looks to nail down the Patriot League title and automatic bid into the FCS playoffs against Bucknell (3-5, 2-1) Saturday afternoon. The Mountain Hawks need to win just one of their final two games to secure the playoff bid. With rival Lafayette looming in two weeks, the last thing the Mountain Hawks want to do is leave something to chance. As a result, they should be focused and motivated to take care of business at home. They certainly were last weekend in their 58-37 win over previous league unbeaten Fordham.

Bucknell also enters the game with league title aspirations. The Bison’s road to the playoffs is far more muddled and unlikely due to tiebreakers but having it on the table has to be a great feeling given how the season has played out to this point. The Bison also have to feel good about the return of senior QB R.J. Nitti after missing five straight games with an injury. Nitti played pretty well (18-29 159 yards 1 TD) in his return against 10th ranked Charleston Southern last weekend.

The Orange and Blue will need Nitti to build off of that performance if they want to take down Lehigh. Getting top WR Will Carter back, who unexpectedly missed the CSU game, will give Nitti and the offense a tremendous boost. The Bison will also need Joey DeFloria to get back on track after being shut down (16 carries 48 yards) by the Buccaneer offense. The Lehigh defense continues to be a little suspect against the run (208 ypg allowed, 5th PL) so DeFloria, and backfield mate Chad Freshnock, should find space to operate.

Unlike Bucknell’s up and down “O”, Lehigh has shown the ability to score points in bunches during their 7 winning streak. As a result, Bucknell’s ultimate fate will likely come down to their defense (25 ppg allowed, tied 3rd in PL). They will be severely tested by a Lehigh offense that continues to roll along no matter whose under center. Senior QB Nick Shanfnisky put forth a 200 yard passing/100 yard rushing performance against Fordham after missing the previous game at Holy Cross with an ankle injury. He was aided by a career high 192 yards from sophomore RB Dominic Bragalone in the win over the Rams.

The Bison have to concerned about their rush defense after surrendering 292 yards to Charleston Southern last week. To make matters worse, DT Alex Jordan was injured in the loss and will not play against Lehigh. The Bison defense does have depth but how much will be test on Saturday.. Against a team like Lehigh who can run (167 ypg) and throw (336 ypg), the Bucknell “D” might be spread a little too thin to make the needed stops over 60 minutes to win.

In order to upset Lehigh, Bucknell needs to control the ball on offense and try to create turnovers on defense. The more possessions Lehigh has the more likely they’re going to put up a big number on the scoreboard. Bucknell simply does not have the firepower to win in a shootout against Lehigh. If Bucknell can hold the Mountain Hawks to under 30 points they might have a chance to pull the stunner and take one step closer to their first league title since 1996.

Of Note: After losing 15 straight games to Lehigh, Bucknell has won 2 out of 3 meetings. One of those Bucknell wins came in 2013 when Lehigh entered the game ranked. That was the last time the Bison defeated a Top 25 opponent. Lehigh owns a commanding 45-31-3 all-times series lead. The Mountain Hawks won last year’s game 21-10 in Lewisburg.

Colgate at Fordham – 5 Nov. 1:00 P.M. Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

(Patriot League Network)

Colgate (3-4, 2-1) takes the lengthy bus ride from sleepy Hamilton to the hustle and bustle of the Big Apple to take on Fordham (5-3, 2-1) in a game that could still factor into the Patriot League title race as well as the FCS playoffs. Colgate is coming of a workman like 26-8 win over struggling Holy Cross last week. The Raiders defense put forth an excellent 60 minute performance but their offense struggled with turnovers and a so-so outing from QB Jake Melville. The Colgate “O” will need to clean things up if they want to keep pace with Fordham’s high flying attack (2nd in PL at 40 ppg). The Raiders beat then #15 Fordham 31-29 last year on their way to the Patriot League Title. Colgate limited Chase Edmonds to 51 yards on 18 carries in the win. Fordham was limited to 102 total rushing yards as a team. The Raiders rush defense remains extremely stout this season. The 78.1 ypg allowed is good enough to be ranked 1st in the PL and 4th in country.

That’s not good news for a Fordham team that is looking to bounce back from a thorough beating they took at Lehigh last week. The Rams trailed 51-9 at late in the 3rd quarter before tacking on a few late scores to close the final margin of defeat to 21 points. Edmonds amassed 182 yards but failed to reach the end zone in the loss. The sensational junior RB still leads FCS in rushing with 1,426 yards. Given Colgate’s impressive rush defense, the Rams will need QB Kevin Anderson (59% comp 244 ypg 19 TDs 3 INTs) will need to have a strong game. The former Marshall QB struggled at times last week despite an impressive final stat line due to 3 late scores. Anderson should have success against a Colgate air defense that is rather porous (310 ypg allowed, 7th PL).

Anderson will need help from a wide receiver group that lacks the star power of previous editions but is still comprised of more than capable players. Austin Longi and Robbie Cantelli have taken turns stepping throughout the year but have yet to put forth big numbers in the same game. TE Phazahn Odom continues to be underused (13 receptions 162 yards), at least relative to last year, despite his 6’8 frame.

While the offense has been inconsistent at times (at least compared to recent years) during the course of the year, the defense remains the biggest question mark for Fordham. Colgate’s QB Jake Melville has to be licking his chops after seeing what Lehigh did (349 yards) to the Rams on the ground last week. Melville (92 carries 494 yards 5 TDs) and his backfield running mate Kenyon Washington (110 carries 530 yards 4 TDs) should have no trouble gashing a depleted Fordham front 7 with the read-option. Colgate just has to hold onto the ball. The Raiders, especially Melville, have been plagued with turnover issues all season. It could have cost them against Holy Cross last week but the Crusaders seemed to always return the gift. If Colgate’s skill players can hold onto the ball there’s a good chance they can escape the Bronx with a win.

Both of these teams made the playoff last year but seem destined to be home for Thanksgiving in 2016. With only 3 losses Fordham is still in the FCS playoff picture. However, their schedule includes a FBS loss and Division II win which means they’ll need a lot of chaos to make the field of 24 for the 4th straight year. Colgate’s 10 game schedule will almost certainly haunt them if they win out. Given last year’s playoff run, their returning experience and preseason hype, the Raiders would have been far more attractive at 7-4.

Of Note: Despite both being from the state of New York and having roots in major college football, Colgate and Fordham never met prior to the Rams joining the Patriot League in 1989. Colgate won the first four meetings before Fordham finally got in the “W” with 17-13 win in 1993. That would be 1 of only 6 Fordham wins the series that Colgate comfortably leads 21-6. Fordham nearly had their 7th win over Colgate last year but their late rally ended up just short.

Holy Cross at Georgetown – 5 Nov. 1:00 P.M. Cooper Field Washington D.C.

(Patriot League Network)

Georgetown (3-5, 0-3) will try to end their 5 game losing streak on Saturday against a Holy Cross (3-5, 1-2) team that has seen their own share of struggles. Both teams have been plagued with subpar quarterback play since their original starters (HC – Peter Pujals, GT – Tim Barnes) got injured earlier in the year. As a result, points, and wins, have been hard to come by in recent weeks for the Crusaders and Hoyas. Whoever emerges victorious on Saturday will likely have done so because their quarterback had the better game.

Holy Cross has talented skill players in Brandon Flaherty and Jake Wieczorek but the inability to get the ball in their hands on a consistent basis has resulted in a lot of frustration. Georgetown’s issues run deeper on “O”. In addition to struggles at quarterback, the Hoyas have gotten very little production at RB (Valles 48 ypg). The end results has been one of the most anemic offenses in all of FCS.

Holy Cross got solid play from Geoff Wade (65% comp 569 yards 5 TDs 2 INTs) before he was injured against Harvard three weeks ago. Since then the Crusaders have used a combination of Blaise Bell and freshman Emmett Clifford. Bell has struggled mightily the last two weeks with turnovers (6) and erratic accuracy which is why Clifford has been pressed into action at times. Wade is “expected” to be back under center this weekend but no one really knows for sure until the Crusader’s offense takes the field. His return would certainly boost the Crusaders chances to leave the nation’s capital with a win. As would getting the rushing attack going again after tallying a meager 21 yards against Colgate last week.

The Hoyas enter Saturday’s game with similar questions at quarterback. Head coach Rob Sgarlata has not listed a definitive starter as of Friday morning. Brock Johnson and Clay Norris will likely both see time against Holy Cross. The two signal callers have combined for 1 TD and 8 INTs on the season. The lack of stability at QB has resulted in the least productive passing attack (150 ypg) in the Patriot League. The Hoyas have also lacked the ability to establish any sort of rushing game (37 ypg, 7th in PL) during Patriot League play. The perfect storm of ineptitude on offense has resulted in the worst scoring unit in the league (6.7 ppg in PL play).

Given the two offenses in this game, the scoreboard likely won’t get much of a workout. The Hoya’s possess the better defense statistically (22 ppg allowed vs 31 ppg allowed) but will that be enough to overcome one of the worst offenses of FCS? The Hoyas have shown the ability to create big plays on defense and special teams. They nearly upset Fordham with that recipe. Getting contributions from all three phases will be needed against Holy Cross if the Hoyas want end their 5 game losing streak.

Both teams desperately need a win in an attempt to end the year on a positive note. One could argue the Crusader’s, or at least head coach Tom Gilmore, need it more given how this season has unfolded.

Of Note: This will be the 21st straight season the Crusaders and Hoyas have met. Five of those meetings occurred while Georgetown was still in the MAAC. Holy Cross won every meeting from 2000 through 2009 but Georgetown has stemmed the tide by winning 4 out of the 6 this decade. Holy Cross owns a 17-11 all-time series lead. The Crusaders crushed Georgetown 45-7 in last season’s season finale.

 

SOCON: Week 10 Preview

Week 10 in the Southern Conference  has two games that may have a big impact on post season chances.  First, it’s a battle of Bulldogs as The Samford Bulldogs take on The Citadel Bulldogs in Charleston.  If The Citadel wins they take the SOCON autobid.  If Samford wins it will be a three way tie between The Citadel, Samford and Chattanooga all at 6-1 and the following week’s games will decide the autobid.  Next up is Furman at Wofford where the Terriers will try and continue to secure at large playoff berth.  In other games ETSU visits Mercer who theoretically could end up at 7-4, but they would need to win out and 7-4 probably will not get them a playoff spot.  The last game is VMI at Western Carolina.  This will be WCU’s best remaining chance at gaining a conference victory this year.  #8 Chattanooga has the week off.   (SOCON weekly notes)

#17 Samford at #5 The Citadel 2PM (ESPN3) (Samford game notes) (The Citadel game notes)

It is the pass against the run this week in Charleston. Samford has the #2 passing offense in FCS. The Citadel has the #2 rushing offense in FCS. Which will prevail? It will obviously come down to which defense can be most effective.

The Citadel’s defense is stout. It has allowed just 300 yards a game this year with 171 through the air and 129 on the ground. It has 22 sacks on the year and 8 interceptions. It leads the SOCON in turnovers at +7. It also leads the conference in third down conversions and allows only 30%.  Suffice to say that the defense of The Citadel Bulldogs has also won them a couple games as well when their offense has sputtered.

Samford’s defense allows 413 yards a game including 179 on the ground and 234 through the air. While passing will not be a big concern on Saturday, The Citadel does strike through the air occasionally after they put you to sleep on the ground. Samford has not allowed an opponent to rush for 300 yards this year including Wofford which had 291 yards. Samford has allowed opponents third down conversions only 35% of the time. They are also at +5 in turnovers.  However, they will be down on defense due to some injuries and a first half ejection due to a targeting call last week in the second half.

The Citadel likes to control the game with long drives. It has a positive TOP at 34:10 a game. Samford strikes quick with a huge number of TD drives of just 1-2 minutes each. As a result, its TOP is only at 26:32. But that does to seem to hurt them with a record at 6-2. What that means for The Citadel is they will need to dominate to TOP to the tune of about 38-40 minutes if they want to win, unless they find a way to stop Devlin Hodges passing attack. Hodges has gone 254-367 for 2913 yards this year with 28 TDs and only 8 interceptions. He is very accurate and his line gives him good protect and time to be accurate.  He can scramble pretty good as well, if needed.  In any event, it is unlikely that Samford will run 104 plays like they did last week.  That’s right, they ran 104 offensive plays against Miss St.

If Samford hopes to stop The Citadel’s running game it will obviously need to stop the FB. It will be interesting to see how they line up defensively against The Citadel. The Charleston Dogs will also be probing the perimeter. The Citadel’s Cam Jackson has had good success outside against some opponents. Wofford is about the only team which shut down both The Citadel’s inside and outside running attack, but they should know best how to do that.

As always, special teams could play a part in a tight game. The only difference here is it appears The Citadel might have an advantage on punt returns. Their punt returner is averaging 14 yards a return and has one TD return.  He has been fearless taking returns and has been plastered a couple times.  Luckily for The Citadel, he hasn’t dropped any.

The Citadel has one more advantage. It is at home for only its 4th, and last time, this year. It is also homecoming and the stadium will be packed. Even so, The Citadel has not seen a passing attack as potent as Samford’s all year. Its secondary has been burned a few times with long gains. With Samford’s passing skill, it may only need to strike a few times to gain the upper hand. Look for Samford to stay just ahead of The Citadel and win by a TD or less.

Wofford at Furman 1:30PM (ESPN3) (Wofford game notes) (Furman game notes)

Wofford is now at 5-3 and 3-2 in the SOCON. They lost by 3 to the Citadel in OT and by 2 to Samford on a failed 2 point conversion. They have to be fuming. They could easily have been at the top of the SOCON right now. A victory in this game will only get them a reprieve though as they still face UTC a week from Saturday. But they still need to win this game. If they win out, at 8-3 with losses only to The Citadel, Samford and Ole Miss, and win against Chattanooga, they will be sitting pretty at 8-3 and will most likely get a playoff berth. But they got to get by Furman first.

Furman’s defense is its strength, although its offense seems to have new life. The Paladins are allowing 184 yards a game on the ground. They limited The Citadel to just 191. Wofford has been averaging 297 on the ground. Furman has also been limiting opponents to 38% on third down conversions, which is what they need to do against Wofford’s running attack.

One area that has hurt Furman is in turnovers. They trail the conference at -9 with mostly interceptions hurting. But their QB, Reese Hannon, did not have any last week and that may bode well for the Paladins. He also looks to be running more.  Overall in six games, Hannon has gone 132/200 for 1668 with 15 TDs and 6 interceptions. Furman’s running game remains in the doldrums at only 118 yards a game.

On defense Wofford is allowing just 260 yards a game including 193 through the air and just 68 yards on the ground, which is good enough for #3 in FCS. To win, it looks like Furman will have to get it done in the air. Wofford also 21 sacks for 144 yards, so it will be hard.

In comparison to Wofford’s running game, their passing game is not impressive, but they do gain 75 yards a game with it. They have a much better completion percentage than The Citadel does and Furman needs to be wary of it. The Citadel passed for 100 yards earlier this year against the Paladins after their running game was stymied. Wofford averages 13 yards a completion. If Wofford puts them to sleep running, they can burn the Paladins through the air occasionally.

On the ground, the Terriers leading rusher is Lorenzo Long who has had six consecutive 100 yard games.  He also leads the Southern Conference in rushing.

The teams are fairly well matched in specials teams. Overall, one big advantage for Wofford is obviously their FCS leading TOP at 35:20. They will need it. Furman is at home and Wofford has not won there since 2007.

In light of Wofford’s need to win this game to keep their post season play hopes alive, they will be tough to be beat. Look for them to play hard and pull out all the stops. Wofford should win by at least a TD.

VMI at Western Carolina 2PM (ESPN3) (VMI game notes) (WCU game notes)

For Western Carolina, this is their first game after their defensive coordinator was let go. WCU is last in the SOCON in most defensive stats. Will it shake things up any? Maybe. Maybe not. They will get a bonus in that VMI’s stud QB, AL Cobb looks to be out this week after being injured at the end of the second quarter last week. Instead VMI will be led by redshirt freshman Austin Coulling this week. He may have a big week his first time starting, but probably not.

On the flip side, WCU’s red shirt freshman QB Tyrie Adams has done fairly well this year. He has gone 170/266 for 1935 yards with 13 TDs and 8 interceptions. The Catamounts also have a very capable runner in Detrez Newsome who has averaged 94 yards a game rushing. He set a school record last game with 277 yards against a stingy Chattanooga defense.

VMI’s defense is right next to WCU’s on the SOCON roster. They have given up 454 yards a game including a league worse 287 yards a game through the air. The only have 11 sacks on the year.

Between WCU’s change in defense and their offensive ability, they should not have much problem taking care of VMI at home. The Catamounts should win by at least 3 scores to gain their first conference win of the season.

ETSU at Mercer 3PM (TV – FoxSSE) (ETSU game notes) (Mercer game notes)

Mercer has an outside chance to make the playoff if they win out, but it will be tough depending on the rest of the field. If they do win out they will have to beat Samford a week from Saturday. They would be 7-4 with one win against a top 25 team if they win out. This week should be a bit easier with the ETSU Bucs coming to Macon.

The Bucs are not a bad team in only their second year playing again. They have a pretty good QB in Austin Herink. He has gone 107/187 for 1027 yards. He has only four TDs, but also only 3 interceptions. Overall, ETSU gains only 269 yards a game. They have had problems scoring and have only 4 TDs in their last 5 SOCON games. They did score 34 against WCU though in week two.

On defense they have done ok. They give up 402 yards a game on average including 215 on the ground and 187 through the air. They allow opponents to convert on third downs 40% of the time.

Mercer on the other hand, in only their 4th year playing football again, has done fairly well on both sides on the ball. While their stats are about average, they are relentless in games and play all four quarters, every game.

They average 386 yards a game with 226 in the air and 160 on the ground. Senior QB John Russ has gone 168/270 for 1799 yards with 14 TDs and 6 interceptions. The Bears have two runners in the SOCON top 10 with Alex Lakes and Payton Usher averaging 118 yards a game between them, but either one of them are capable of gaining 100 yards.

On defense, Mercer allows 410 yards a game with 179 on the ground and 231 in the air. They also have 17 sacks. They have also allowed opponents to convert 41% on third down conversions.

One area that Mercer has struggled with is in penalties. They lead the SOCON with 58 for 603 yards which is good for 75 yards a game. They also struggle with possession time and are in the red at 28:32 a game. ETSU also struggles with penalties at 60 yards a game.

It is homecoming for Mercer.  They should not have any problem with the Bucs although ETSU may score more than they have. Expect The Bears to win by at least 3 TDs.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1102- LISTEN UP!

As usual there is a ton of activity in the FCS world this week and Lance & Kris hit all the main points they can.  Good discussions on these games from last weekend:

North Dakota 27 Weber State 19

Eastern Washington 35 Montana 16

Western Illinois 35 South Dakota 34

St. Francis 38 Sacred Heart 17

Lehigh 58 Fordham 37

New Hampshire 43 Stony Brook 14

Jacksonville State 47 Eastern Illinois 14

Illinois State 38 South Dakota State 21

They boys go over this weeks AGS Poll, preview what we can look forward to with this coming weekends big match ups, and they also dive into the playoffs talk again with our version of the Bracketology.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

BIG SOUTH: Week 10 Preview

(3-6) Gardner-Webb @ (5-2) Charleston Southern – Saturday, Nov 5th, 12:00 (American Sports Network)

CSU welcomes Gardner-Webb to Buccaneer Field in a game they must win in order to keep pace with Liberty in the Big South standings.  The last two games in this series have been largely non-competitive with CSU winning at home 44-14 in 2014 and 34-0 last year up in Boiling Springs.  The Bulldogs’ last win in the series was in 2013 against a Bucs squad that came into the game at 10-1 buffered a massive special teams meltdown that day and only managed a field goal on offense in a 27-10 win for G-W.

It will be interesting to see how Gardner-Webb approaches this game.  Despite their poor record, this is a team that has been just a few plays away all season long.  The G-W coaching staff has tailored the offense around QB Tyrell Maxwell and RB’s Khalil Lewis and Jonathon Blackmon and the 3-4 defense has remained a force.  However, Lewis went to the bench during the 4th quarter of Liberty game with an undisclosed illness and didn’t return while Blackmon had to be helped off the field after suffering a leg injury on the next play of overtime.  To top it off, the loss to Liberty effectively knocked Gardner-Webb out of the Big South title race as well as assured the Bulldogs of a losing record on the season.  With only two games to play thanks to a poorly-placed bye week, G-W enters November with nothing material to play for.  All that remains for them is pride and finally – belatedly – getting a statement win that could carry over into next season.

For their part, CSU may have yet another question to answer at quarterback.  Starter Shane Bucenell went down with an apparent lower leg injury in the 3rd quarter against Bucknell and did not return.  Instead of inserting their “other” quarterback, Robert Mitchell, the CSU coaching staff put little-used London Johnson into the game.  Johnson has subbed in for Bucenell before – most notably during the Kentucky State game when Bucenell was injured just before halftime – and even started the Florida State game for the Bucs.  Even so, FSU had been Johnson’s last game action before Saturday.  According to CSU’s TV announcers, Mitchell was present and dressed for the game which makes it all the more curious why Johnson took the helm in what was, at the time, a one-score game.  To be fair, Johnson performed well against Bucknell – rushing for two touchdowns and passing for another – but he also threw an interception and pitched the ball away to the other team on the Bucs’ two-yard line.

What Gardner-Webb has to do against CSU:  Stay salty.  It’s hard to imagine that many of Gardner-Webb’s team goals for 2016 are still achievable but beating a top #10 opponent is likely one of them.  All year long, the Bulldogs have been playing like a team with something to prove despite never quite managing to make their point.  This is their last shot at doing so.

What CSU has to do against Gardner-Webb:  Stay focused.  CSU gave away two touchdowns to Bucknell on bad turnovers as well as over 130 yards in penalties in as undisciplined a performance as we’ve seen from the Bucs in quite some time.   G-W has bigger and better talent on all sides of the ball than Bucknell did and is a much-larger threat to CSU’s title hopes should the Bucs make the same mistakes.

 

5-4) Clark Atlanta @ (6-2) Kennesaw State – Saturday, November 5th 1:00pm (Big South Network)

Kennesaw dips back into the D2 ranks for the third time this season and will face the Clark-Atlanta Panthers out of the SIAC.  CAU is 5-4 on the year with their best win of the season probably being……oh, who cares?  They’re another below-average D2 team on a KSU schedule loaded with below-average D2 teams.  Obviously, the Owls’ second-year program is still working through their “starter schedule” games that were contracted before the team took the field.  However, that doesn’t change the fact that CAU is another faceless and defenseless opponent that the Owls are going to go out and just ramrod during the empty time and space between games that matter.   The campuses of KSU and CAU are 35 miles – and, therefore six hours by car through Atlanta traffic – apart.  After sorting out Point and Missouri S&T, I’m no longer inclined to go into the high and low points of a game that was probably scheduled as the result of the two AD’s getting locked in next to each other in the same traffic jam on I-75.

Kennesaw will run the ball for touchdowns.  Kennesaw will throw the ball for touchdowns.  Clark Atlanta will do significantly less of both.  Kennesaw’s fans will be happy.  Clark Atlanta’s will be less so.  The end.

What Kennesaw has to do against Clark Atlanta:  Whatever.

What Clark Atlanta has to do against Kennesaw:  As if.

 

(4-5) Monmouth @ (6-2) Coastal Carolina – Saturday, Nov 5th 2:00pm (Chanticleer Sports Network) 

Monmouth has never beaten Coastal Carolina in four tries and should probably not expect to soon.  The closest the Hawks have come to knocking off the Chanticleers was just last year in West Long Branch, NJ when the two teams fought to a virtual stalemate but which ended in Coastal’s favor when Ryan Granger booted a 30-yard field goal as time expired to secure a 23-20 win.  That, however, was a long damn time ago.

For Monmouth, even four weeks ago must seem like a year ago.  That was when the Hawks were sitting at 4-2, having beaten both frontrunners in the Patriot League, Lehigh and Fordham.  Monmouth did already have a loss in Big South play to pre-season league favorite Charleston Southern but were primed to make some noise for at-large consideration.  Instead, their defense completely collapsed as they lost their next three games – all in-conference – starting with a mid-October Thursday night beating at the hands of lowly Presbyterian.  They currently sit at the bottom of the standings, with only a season-ending date at Gardner-Webb remaining, having been outscored by the rest of the Big South to the tune of 153-61.

How Monmouth head coach Kevin Callahan and his staff will approach this game is anyone’s guess.  It’s the Hawks’ seventh road game of the season at a non-conference opponent who has nearly twenty more scholarships at their disposal.  Further, it leads directly into Monmouth’s bye week – again, one of the worst places to have a bye week – with, as mentioned, another road date on the other side.  On the plus side, with wins in their last two games, Monmouth finish above .500 for the first time since 2014.  Also, the game does have a bit of odd regional flavor as well since a substantial portion of Coastal Carolina’s student body as well as that of Coastal’s football roster hails from the NJ/PA/MD/DE region.

Coastal is ridiculously banged up at this point.  That’s not to suggest that Monmouth has a significant chance because of it but, rather, that Coastal has reached a point in the season where they are flat out experimenting with things.  Last week against Presbyterian, eight different players carried the ball – including a defensive back – and three different players lined up under center with one of them being a baseball player who was handed his first-ever college football jersey just a month ago.  The result was a 332-yard rushing day and a 31-point win for the guys in teal so that’s certainly hard to argue with. However, in a transitional year for Coastal when they already have little tangible to play for but are now working with a patched-together lineup, it’s begun to feel like the CCU coaches, for good or ill, are simply drawing plays up on the sideline and saying, “Let’s try this with that guy.  What’s the worst that could happen?”  Frankly, I commend them for it.  This is prime opportunity to try to innovate and there’s almost literally no risk.

What Monmouth has to do against Coastal:  Hold the ball as long as possible.  The Hawks won’t win but, having given up more than 700 rushing yards in the last two weeks, it might minimize some of the damage.  After the game is over in Conway, I suggest taking the team the extra few miles down to Myrtle Beach and spending an evening and a day before flying home Sunday afternoon.  Monmouth is off the following week so spending an extra 24 hours on the beach won’t hurt them.  That seems an unlikely course of action but it’s the advice I have.

What Coastal has to do against Monmouth:  Nearly everything Coastal did worked against Presbyterian and there’s little reason to expect that it won’t against Monmouth.

 

(5-3) Liberty @ (2-6) Presbyterian – Saturday, November 5th, 2:00 (ESPN3, LFSN)

At first blush, this looks like a game between two teams going in opposite directions.  Liberty has won four straight while Presby has lost four of their last five.  This Saturday will be just the 4th home game of the season for PC but it will also be their last before finishing out on the road at Kennesaw State and FBS South Alabama.

Liberty is, again, in a must-win situation.  Next week’s home date against Charleston Southern looms larger with each passing week but any slip-ups in between could be devastating.  For what it’s worth, Liberty has slipped up at Presbyterian once before with devastating consequences.  Flames fans will long remember the 2008 team that finished the season ranked and with a 10-2 record only to be snubbed by the playoff committee thanks to former Blue Hose – and, now, Arizona Cardinals – Justin Bethel swatting away a game-winning touchdown pass to persevere a 31-28 win for Presbyterian on this same field.  That was a long time ago and Liberty hasn’t lost to Presbyterian since, despite very close calls in both 2011 and just last year, but that loss still haunts the Liberty faithful.

Liberty comes into this game after getting their first “gut” win of the season.  Against Gardner-Webb, the Flames made crucial mistakes that turned the game in G-W’s favor but were able to rebound and take a late lead.  When Gardner-Webb made a late charge of their own to force overtime, Liberty again responded, blocking a field goal in the extra time to get the win.  That bodes well for this week’s opponent, Presbyterian.  PC has certainly played closer games against LU in Lynchburg but the Blue Hose have been traditionally been a tough out.

Presbyterian comes into this game after having dug themselves a deep early hole against Coastal Carolina and leaving themselves no way to climb out.  After turning the ball over just once in the three weeks prior, PC threw three interceptions and fumbled on the first play of the game at their own 20-yard line.  As is their M.O. in recent years, the PC defense has again performed better than the PC offense but not significantly so this time.  While they held Monmouth to under 300 total yards in that win, PC gave up more than 500 yards of offense apiece to CSU and Gardner-Webb and another 471 to Coastal.

What Liberty needs to do against Presbyterian:  Get the turnovers.  After hauling in 15 turnovers in the first five games of the season, the Liberty defense has since taken away only three, all against Monmouth.  Presbyterian has given the ball back to LU via sudden change four times in each of the last two years and those plays served a crucial role in the outcomes.

What Presbyterian needs to do against Liberty: Defensively, keep the Liberty receivers in front of you.  The Flames love the long ball and they’re good enough at it that, in recent weeks, they’ve been able to use the threat of it to successfully open up the running lanes.

Must Watch Week 10

This week has some big game with conference championships and playoff seeding on the line! Here are the games to watch for this weekend:

Saturday, November 5th
Villanova @ Maine 11:00am STREAM
Penn @ Princeton 11:00am STREAM
Northern Arizona @ Weber State 1:00pm STREAM
Jacksonville State @ Southeast Missouri State 1:00pm ESPN3
Samford @ The Citadel 2:00pm ESPN3
James Madison @ Richmond 2:30om STREAM
Youngstown State @ North Dakota State 2:30om ESPN3
Central Arkansas @ Stephen F Austin 3:00pm STREAM
McNeese State @ Sam Houston State 6:00pm ESPN3
Eastern Washington @ Cal Poly 8:05pm STREAM
    • Both teams sit in the middle of a 5-way tie for second place in the CAA. A Richmond win over James Madison would leave no undefeated teams in conference play so a win here is a must for either team to stay in the race for the CAA autobid. The loser is also in a bad spot for an at-large bid, especially if it were to be the Black Bears.
    • This is a big game in the Ivy League race. A Penn win sets up a title game against Harvard next weekend. A win by Princeton essentially gives Harvard the Ivy League crown for 2016.
    • Weber State is still the surprise team in the Big Sky after snagging a win over Southern Utah last week. Northern Arizona has an outside shot at an at-large bid if they win out, but it doesn’t look good. With some help Weber State could still get the Big Sky autobid. They could still get an at-large slot, but winning out might be necessary to get it.
    • Jacksonville State continues their bid for a Top 2 seed in the playoffs when they hit the road to SEMO on Saturday. Other than being a road test, this might not end up being a challenge for the Gamecocks.
    • Samford played well against their SEC opponent last weekend. Can they knock The Citadel from the top of the SoCon standings? This will be the Bulldogs most likely chance at an FCS loss this season as they finish the SoCon slate with VMI and then take on FBS North Carolina. Samford is still in the playoff hunt themselves and could force a 3-way tie for first place with a win.
    • The game of the year in the CAA takes place on Saturday as these two in-state rivals hit the field to battle for the CAA autobid. As mentioned in the Nova-Maine write-up, there is a 5 way tie for second place heading into this weekend and a Richmond win brings James Madison back with that pack.
    • Youngstown State snuck out the Homecoming victory over Indiana State last weekend. This Saturday will be much tougher as they board a plane for the Fargodome. The Penguins are sitting at 6-2 and in a good spot for an at-large big for the playoffs if they don’t fall apart in the last 3 games. North Dakota State only has one loss but has their fanbase a little nervous with the way they have played. A win here would leave the Bison’s chance at a top seed looking pretty good.
    • Central Arkansas is still on a roll. Can SFA knock them down a peg or will the Bears continue their path towards an SLC title game against Sam Houston State the last week of the season?
    • Sam Houston State hasn’t been challenged for 4 quarters this season. Will McNeese State provide them a bigger challenge?
    • Another huge conference battle in SLO this weekend as two of the Big Sky’s top teams will face the challenge of playing a team that seems to be their exact opposite. Cal Poly needs this one the most as they have two losses and only so many teams from the Big Sky will make the playoffs. EWU needs this win in order to be a top 2 seed.

MVFC: Week 9 Review

Hey…it’s another week of exciting games. Not quite on par with a few weeks ago when they were all within 1 score and decided in the last minute of the game or on the last play, but still pretty exciting stuff. If you weren’t paying attention, here’s the scores, and if you want the full rundown, then scroll on down a bit.
MVFC Logo
#7 South Dakota State – 21
Illinois State – 38

Southern Illinois – 35
Missouri State – 38

#18 Western Illinois – 35
#22 South Dakota – 34

Indiana State – 10
#14 Youngstown State – 13

#3 North Dakota State – 24
#33 Northern Iowa – 20

#7 South Dakota State @ Illinois State

In the first game, the 7th ranked Jackrabbits headed down to Normal to take on the struggling Redbirds. ISU got the scoring started early with a couple of long runs on a drive ending in a 18-yard QB TD run. SDSU had a difficult time on their first drive, picking up a couple of first downs, but then going for it on 4th and 1 with a QB run that was stopped at the line for a turnover on downs. ISU then drove right down the field in 11 plays for another TD, and all of a sudden, the Redbirds were up 14-0. SDSU would miss a 52-yard FG attempt, and they’d then trade punts until the end of the 1st. The 2nd quarter started the same way the 1st ended with a couple of more drives ending in punts, before the Jackrabbits would get on the board with a 6-yard TD pass. ISU scored on the next drive on a 14-yard TD run, but SDSU would answer right back with a TD drive highlighted by a 49-yard pass. ISU would counter with their own TD drive finishing with a 21-yard pass, and the half would end with the Redbirds up 28-14.

In the second half, SDSU started off strong, driving down the field and ending with a 30-yard TD pass to bring them within 7. Three plays into the next possession, ISU would fumble on a QB sack. The Jackrabbits were unable to do anything with it though, going for it on 4th and 17 but only picking up 4 yards. To be fair, they were on the ISU 28 yard line, which they felt must have been just outside the range of their FG kicker and close enough that a punt wouldn’t really gain them much, if anything. ISU would take over, but just end up punting…then an SDSU 4-plays and punt, and another ISU 3-and-out and punt, which would take them to the 4th quarter, ISU still up 28-21. The final quarter would start with an SDSU drive working down to the ISU 9 yard line, but then threw an interception in the end zone, giving ISU the ball back at the 20. ISU would drive down the field and turn it into a FG to go up by 10. The following drive, SDSU would work their way down the field getting to the ISU 13 yard line. But then, a sack put them back to the 20, and then a 92-yard pick-6 with less than 5 minutes left in the game would essentially put it out of reach for the Jackrabbits, with the Redbirds going up 38-21. The last chance that SDSU had looked to be a particularly ugly drive with 8 incomplete passes (vs 4 completions), 2 sacks, and ending with an interception. Then ISU was able to run out the clock and come away with the upset with a final score of 38-21.

SDSU QB Taryn Christion threw for 430 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 26 yards and a TD, but he also threw 3 interceptions and was sacked twice. WR Jake Wieneke caught 173 yards on 10 passes and 2 TDs, and TE Dallas Goedert picked up 118 yards on 11 passes. Wieneke is now 92 yards from taking over the #1 spot in the MVFC record books for career receiving yardage…and he’s still a Junior, btw. The running game was practically nonexistent, with RB Brady Mengarelli leading the team with 35 total yards. LB Christian Rozeboom had 9 tackles, DL Cole Langer had a forced fumble that was recovered by DL Kellen Soulek.

ISU QB Jake Kolbe only threw for 138 yards, but was just as effective on the scoring front, throwing for 2 TDs and running for another, but the biggest difference being no interceptions. WR Anthony Warrum led the team in receiving yards with 46 but had both receiving TDs. RB Jamal Towns ran for 136 yards and 1 TD. O-lineman Mark Spelman picked up the MVFC Offensive Lineman of the Week award for his contributions to the offense.  DB DraShane Glass led the team with 11 tackles and 1 interception. DB Willie Edwards also had an interception, and DB La’Darius Newbold had the 92-yard pick-6.

South Dakota State drops to 4-1 in the conference and 5-3 overall and will head home to take on Missouri State next weekend. Illinois State picks up their 2nd conference win, bringing their record to 2-4 in the MVFC and 4-5 overall and will make the drive across the state to take on Western Illinois next weekend.

Southern Illinois @ Missouri State

Salukis and Bears…two teams that have had a rough time overall this season, battling it out essentially for “bragging rights” and the possibility of not being last place in the conference when everything is all said and done. A few possessions into the first quarter, SIU got the scoring started with an 80-yard TD drive. Three possessions later, MSU would get their own points on a 76-yard TD pass. The next drive would take us into the 2nd quarter and finish with a SIU 9-yard TD pass. Two plays later and MSU would throw an interception, which SIU would take 9 plays to turn into a TD putting them up 21-7. MSU then turned it over on downs, but held SIU to a punt on the following drive, only to turn it over on downs again and finishing out the first half with SIU up by 14.

The second half, MSU pulled within 7 on the first possession with a TD drive highlighted by a 46-yard pass. SIU was held to a punt on the next one, but then 5 plays into MSU’s drive, they threw an interception returned 43 yards for a TD, putting SIU back up by 14. MSU would come back though and put together a nice sustained drive finishing with a 10-yard TD pass to bring them back within 7. The MSU defense then held SIU to a punt, but then so did SIU’s on the next drive which got them into the 4th quarter. On the punt, however, the returner broke through the coverage team and took it all the way back for a TD, tying it up at 28-all. SIU would respond with a 4-play drive ending in a 54-yard TD pass and then pick off MSU 7 plays into the next drive. SIU was held to a 3-and-out though, and MSU was able to put together another TD drive ending in a 36-yard TD to tie it all up again, this time at 35-all. Another 3-and-out for SIU and MSU was able to drive down the field getting to the SIU 14 with 10 seconds left in the game. From there, MSU hit a 32-yard field goal to take their only lead of the game. A couple of plays later (including one of those frantic “get as far as you can then lateral it” plays) and the clock would run out on SIU, ending in a 38-35 Missouri State victory.

SIU QB Josh Straughan passed for 315 yards and 2 TDs with 0 interceptions. Most of his passing yards went to WR Israel Lamprakes who had 56 yards and 1 TD. WR Connor Iwema would also have a TD reception. The team’s rushing leader was RB Cameron Walter who ran for 56 yards. RB Jonathan Mixon would return from being out the last few weeks due to injury, picking up only 8 net yards, but 2 TDs. LB Kyron Watson had 11 total tackles. Safetys Ryan Neal and Jefferson Vea each had an interception, and  CB Craig James had the 43-yard pick-6.

MSU QB Brodie Lambert threw for 339 yards, 4 TDs, but also 3 interceptions, but it would be good enough to garner him the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week award. WR Zac Hoover picked up 150 yards and 2 TDs, and both TE Erik Furmanek and OL Cole Christiensen (yea….O-lineman) would have 1 TD catch each. TB Jason Randall ran for 86 yards. LB Dylan Cole finished with 19 tackles including 1.5 for loss, and kicker Zach Drake had 1 FG attempt, hitting the 32-yarder in the last 10 seconds to win the game.

SIU came away with a loss in what could have been their last good chance at a conference win, dropping them to 2-6 overall and 0-5 in the MVFC. They’ll head back home and take on South Dakota next weekend back in Carbondale. MSU continues with their “somewhat improved” season…as in, not being last in the conference, and stays firmly in the middle of the conference, pulling to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the MVFC. They will head up to Brookings, SD to take on a very tough SDSU team next weekend.

#18 Western Illinois @ #22 South Dakota

In a game some were calling the “Nielson-Bowl”, the “formerly coached-by Nielson” WIU Leathernecks headed to the DakotaDome to take on the “currently coached-by Nielson” USD Coyotes. We expected there to be quite a bit of emotion in this one, and the game did not disappoint. A few drives into the game, USD would hit a 20-yard TD pass (which followed a 45-yard pass), to give the Coyotes an early advantage.WIU would respond right away with a 55-yard TD run on the second play from scrimmage. USD would hit a 40-yard pass on the next drive and eventually get as close as the WIU 10 yard line, but would have to settle for a FG, putting them ahead by 3. On the next play from scrimmage, WIU would hit a 57-yard pass that would set up a 7-yard TD pass. USD would counter with an extended drive ending in a 7-yard TD pass to go back up by 3. Short drives ending in punts would take us into the 2nd quarter, but a few drives in, WIU would throw an interception that was returned to the WIU 10 yard line, which USD would take 2 plays to get into the end zone on a 4-yard run. WIU was then held to a punt and USD was able to use up most of what was left in the half with a TD drive to go ahead 31-14, which would be the score going into halftime.

The second half started with WIU getting the ball and driving 75 yards ending in a 6-yard QB TD run. On the next drive, USD would go for it on 4th and 1 from the WIU 28 but would get stopped for no gain, turning the ball over. A couple of short drives later and then Western would work their way back down the field ending in another TD run, this time from 9 yards out. USD was held to a punt early in the 4th on their next drive, but then WIU was held to a 3-and-out. USD would take the ball all the way down to the WIU 4 yard line, but was only able to come away with 3 points on a 21-yard FG, but it did increase their lead to 6 points. WIU was held to a punt on the next drive and then USD was able to complete a 69 yard pass to get them within the WIU 8 yard line. A couple of runs later and it was 3rd and goal on the WIU 1. USD’s usually reliable RB would take the handoff but ended up fumbling the ball into the end zone where it was fallen on by Western, giving them a touchback and the ball at the 20 yard line, down by 6 points, with 4 ½ minutes left in the game. Western drove down the field, at one point going for it on 4th and 10 and nailing a 28 yard pass to keep moving the chains, and eventually hitting a 2-yard TD pass with 32 seconds left in the game (although better clock management by the Leathernecks could have probably dropped that time remaining quite a bit) to give the Leathernecks the 1-point lead. USD would not go quietly though, using time outs and smart passes to work their way across to the WIU 37 yard line, where they would call upon their exceptional kicker to attempt a 54-yard FG to win the game. The snap and hold were good, but the kick went just left (and maybe a little short, but it was hard to tell from the video), giving Western the 1-point win, with the score of 35-34.

WIU QB Sean McGuire passed for 286 yards with 2 TDs and 1 interception as well as running for 30 yards and a TD. WR Lance Lenoir caught 111 yards and 1 TD of that on 6 receptions, which gave him a total of 255 total receptions in his career and moved him up to #1 in the MVFC record books for that stat. Lenoir is also 242 yards away from the current #1 spot for career receiving yards, although SDSU’s Jake Wieneke is likely to hit that mark first and surpass any additional yards Lenoir has (since Lenoir is a senior, but Wieneke is still only a junior). WR Isaiah Lesure had 63 yards and WR Joey Borsellino had 45 and a TD. RB Steve McShane stayed at #1 in the conference for rushing yards, picking up 112 and 1 TD. RB Jamie Gilmore only had 26 yards but also had a TD. LB Brett Taylor picked up 15 total tackles (11 of those were solo, giving him the #1 spot in the FCS for solo tackles with 7.9 per game) as well as the fumble recovery in the end zone which set up the final WIU TD drive. LB Quentin Moon picked up 12 tackles including 3 for loss.

USD QB Chris Streveler actually had a really good game, passing for 373 yards and 2 TDs, 0 interceptions, as well as being the team’s rushing leader with 102 rushing yards and 1 TD, which garnered him the MVFC Newcomer of the Week award. WR Brandt Van Roekel had been out with a shoulder injury, but unexpectedly was able to return for this game, where he caught 137 yards of passes. Freshmen WRs Trystn Ducker and Dakarai Allen each had a TD reception. RB Trevor Bouma picked up 42 yards and a TD on the ground. Defensively, freshman DB (and former WIU recruit) Marchalo Judge Jr. had 8 tackles, and DB Danny Rambo had the interception taken back for 26 yards. USD kicker Miles Bergner remained one of the best punters in the FCS with 5 punts averaging 43.8 yards…two of them over 50 yards, and was 2 for 3 on FGs, hitting from 27 and 21 yards out, but missing on the game ending 54-yarder (only his second miss of the season).

With the win, Western Illinois moves up to 6-2 on the season and 3-2 in the conference and will head home to take on in-state rival Illinois State next weekend. South Dakota, meanwhile, falls to 4-4 overall and 3-2 in the conference. They’ll head down south to take on the SIU Salukis next weekend.

Indiana State @ #14 Youngstown State

The Sycamores headed east to take on the Penguins in what looked to be a defensive battle. Would YSU be able to stop the trees’ quality passing offense? Would the Penguin offense be able to put points on the board…like…any points….maybe? Also, what would be coach Pelini’s decision with regards to their QB situation? Play one of the two guys who are still able to play but have been rather ineffective this season, or try to convince the former starter to come back and play this season rather than sitting out and transferring? Well, it looked to be the latter, with a QB who hasn’t taken any snaps this season lining up to lead the YSU offense.

The first quarter, Indiana State scored first on the game’s second possession, with a 23 yard FG. The next drive, YSU would throw an interception, which ISU would take 5 plays to turn into a 9-yard TD run, putting them up 10-0. The very next play for scrimmage and YSU would throw another interception and making it look like it was going to be a very long day for the Penguins. However, the YSU defense stepped up, nabbing their own interception 3 plays later. A long drive headlined by a 41-yard run later, and Youngstown State was able to put points on the board with a 23-yard FG. A couple of traded punts, and ISU was able to get to the YSU 7 yard line, but then threw an interception in the end zone, giving YSU the ball at the 20. They took 8 plays to get down the field, ending in a 31-yard FG as time expired in the first half, giving ISU the 10-6 lead going into halftime.

The second half started with a couple of short stalled drives before ISU fumbled on a QB sack. YSU would get down to the 16 yard line and go for a 33-yard field goal, but it was blocked. ISU was held to a punt again, and again YSU drive down the field, this time getting to the 27 yard line, going for a 44 yard FG, but missing that one early in the 4th quarter, with the score still 10-6 Sycamores. A couple more traded punts until YSU finally broke one open, returning the punt 79 yards for a TD to take the lead by 3. A Few more drives held to punts and an ISU turnover on downs essentially finished out the game, giving the Penguins a 13-10 victory. And as to the YSU offense putting points on the board…considering all of their points came from FGs or kick returns…their offense essentially didn’t score. It was all special teams and the YSU defense that really stepped up, holding ISU scoreless after the first quarter

ISU QB Isaac Harker threw for 1 TD and 148 yards, primarily to WR Robert Tonyan who had 40 yards and the game’s only offensive TD. RB Roland Genesy ran for 88 yards. LB Jonas Griffith led the team in tackles with 9 and an interception. LB Jameer Thurman also had an interception that was taken back 15 yards.

YSU QB Hunter Wells threw for 101 yards and 2 interceptions. Nobody caught for over 30 yards, but RB Martin Ruiz ran for 151 total yards. FS LeRoy Alexander had 11 tackles including 3 for loss. D-lineman Avery Moss had 3 sacks for 27 yards, 1 forced fumble, and 2 qb hurries. The fumble was picked up by DT Donald Mesier, and SS Jameel Smith and CB Kenny Bishop each had interceptions. WR Darien Townsend picked up 24 receiving yards, but his biggest contribution was taking one punt return 79 yards for a TD to put YSU ahead in the 4th quarter. Townsend would be awarded the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award for his contribution.

Indiana State falls to 2-4 in the MVFC and 4-5 overall this season and will face off against the UNI Panthers at home next weekend. Youngstown State will head up to the Fargodome in a battle that will have a large impact on conference standing in the upper half, as well as likely impact on the playoff picture, as they take on the NDSU Bison.

#3 North Dakota State @ #33 Northern Iowa

And in probably the biggest game of the week in the conference, the late game featured the impressive (although slightly less so than in some previous years) Bison against the UNI Panthers and their new-found offense. Was the Panther offense from the previous week a fluke and would they be able to put up anything close to those numbers against a MUCH better defense?

This big-time game started off with a couple of 3-and-outs, then NDSU held to another punt, before UNI threw an interception giving NDSU the ball at the UNI 24 yard line. 4 plays later and the Bison would be the first to put points on the board with a 1-yard TD run. UNI would take 14 plays on the next drive, going into the 2nd quarter and gaining 68 yards before having to settle for a 30-yard FG. A couple more drives ending in punts and NDSU would hit a 31-yard TD pass to go up by 11 points late in the first half. UNI would finish off the half with another FG…this time from 25 yards out, to make the score 14-6 at halftime.

Two plays into the second half, UNI threw another interception, but NDSU was unable to do anything with it, going 3-and-out. The Bison responded by holding UNI to their own 3-and-out, and then took the following drive 58 yards on 6 plays ending in an 8-yard TD run to go ahead 21-6. UNI was held to another 3-and-out, but on the first play after the punt, NDSU threw an interception. UNI was able to work down the field 74 yards, capped off with a 17 yard TD pass. NDSU got as close as the UNI 8 on the next drive, but had to settle for a 25-yard FG early in the 4th quarter. The Panthers came right back with a 45-yard TD drive to pull within 4 points. At this point, the two defenses really stepped up. NDSU 3-and-out, UNI 4 plays and punt, NDSU 3-and-out, UNI 3-and-out, and then a big break for UNI…NDSU throwing an interception. Problem was…4 plays later, UNI threw an interception right back. The UNI defense again held NDSU to a punt, which gave UNI the ball at their own 28 yard line with only 11 seconds left in the game. Time for a game-winning drive?…unfortunately for UNI…the answer would be no, with the rest of the game time being eaten up by a false start penalty against the Panthers, and then an interception to essentially end the game, with the Bison coming away with the win, 24-20.

NDSU QB Easton Stick had 118 yards and 1 TD passing, but also threw 2 interceptions and had 2 sacks. WR RJ Urzendowski caught for 43 yards, and TE JEff Illies had 35 yards and a TD receiving. RB Lance Dunn led the team with 118 rushing yards, RBs Chase Morlock and King Frazier each had rushing TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, LB Matt Plank had 10 tackles and an interception. LB MJ Stumpf had 7 tackles including 2 for loss (1 sack). SS Robbie Grimsley picked up an interception returned for 14 yards, and FS Tre Dempsey had 2 interceptions including the one that essentially “sealed” the victory for the Bison and a pass breakup in the end zone and was rewarded with the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award.

UNI QB Eli Dunne (in only his second start) threw for 216 yards and 2 TDs, but threw 4 interceptions and was sacked 3 times. RB Michael Malloy led the team in receiving yards with 63, and WR Jaylin James and TE Briley Moore each picked up a receiving TD. RB Tyvis Smith led the team with 57 rushing yards. DB Damon Hendrix had 12 tackles in the game, and DL Karter Schult had 7 tackles and remained at the #1 spot in the FCS for sacks with 1 this game. DBs Malcolm Washington and Elijah Campbell each had an interception.

North Dakota State will head back to their home dome for a matchup with Youngstown State next weekend. They are 7-1 overall and 4-1 in the conference and are in a good position to challenge for the conference autobid if they win that one (although SDSU does have the “head-to-head” advantage). Northern Iowa is 3-5 overall and 2-3 in MVFC play and will head over to Indiana State to play the Sycamores next weekend.

Wrap-up

First off, I wanted to mention that the MVFC website has a nice write-up of interesting notes, records, and other miscellaneous stats across the games this last weekend in their Weekly Valley Football Notebook: http://www.valley-football.org/news/default/2016-17/9104/weekly-valley-football-notebook-oct-31/

For example, did you know that Western won their fourth game this year decided in the final minute of play? I did…my blood pressure did…the stress headache I had for the rest of Saturday evening did…but did you?

Anyway, how’d I do on my predictions this week? Well, here’s what I’d said vs what actually happened.

South Dakota State over Illinois State by 17 – Ok…I was dead-wrong on this one. I guess I should have listened to some of the SDSU guys over at AGS who said that this would be their “let down” game…they were right…I was wrong.

Southern Illinois over Missouri State by 7 – Oh come on Salukis, you had this game in the bag. You had to just go and give up 31 points in the second half to mess up this pick for me, eh? MSU won it by 2, so that’s another loss for me….not doing so well this week, am I?

Western Illinois over South Dakota by 4 – First half it felt like my Leathernecks came out TOO emotional…missing tackles, trying to do too much, etc. and had a pretty bad first half. To their credit, they came out in the second half and did well, although it took a couple of lucky plays (fumble at the end zone, best kicker in the country missing a FG) to pull it off. Still, like they say, good teams find a way to win, and for the most part, the Leathernecks have done a good job of that this year….and it gave me a win for my pick.

Youngstown State over Indiana State by 14 – I underestimated how anemic the YSU offense would be, but thankfully their special teams came through and helped me pick up a win here with their win out there. YSU only won by 3, but I think it counts.

North Dakota State over Northern Iowa by 1 – If it weren’t for all those interceptions from the young UNI QB and his receivers still learning the new system only 2 games into it, I would have gotten this pick wrong. UNI played well, but couldn’t overcome the 4 interceptions (and credit to the NDSU defenders for being in the right places at the right times. NDSU won it by 4 and I won on this pick.

So, I was 3-2 this last weekend, combined with my previous record of 15-8, and I’m now at 18-10 in picking games this season for the MVFC.

Playoff Picture

Now that we’re essentially to the last month of the season, with most teams in the conference having 3 regular season games left (although the ISU’s only have 2), I thought it’d be a decent idea to talk about the playoff picture. I did that a little bit in my preview article for this week, but thought maybe I’d dig in a bit more now that we’re one step closer to it.

Here’s the teams, in their current standing order in the conference, along with the rest of their opponents and their chances at making the playoffs (or at least, at making the 7-win mark that is generally necessary for consideration. And, yes, I know better than most that a 6-win team can snag an at-large, but that happened once and was due to a confluence of events and situations that are unlikely to come together very often, so I’m working under the assumption that you gotta get to 7 wins playing in the MVFC to make it in.

  1. North Dakota State – 7-1 overall, 4-1 in MVFC, remaining games vs YSU, vs ISUb, @ USD. Bison are already at 7 D1 wins, so barring a complete collapse practically unheard of in FCS football outside of the east side of Ohio, they’ll be in the playoffs. Win out, and they’re a lock for a seed and depending on what happens with SDSU, possibly the conference auto-bid.
  2. Youngstown State – 6-2 overall, 4-1 in MVFC, remaining games @ NDSU, vs SIU, @ MSU. Penguins need 1 win in the next 3 to reach 7 D1 wins. Even if they lose at NDSU, which is a very real possibility, the last two games are very winnable for them, even with no offense to speak of. I could easily see them going 2-1 for the last 3 games and making the playoffs with a 8-3 overall record….then again, if there’s one thing the Penguins have historically been very good at, it’s losing in November.
  3. South Dakota State – 5-3 overall, 4-1 in MVFC, remaining games vs MSU, vs USD, @ UNI. SDSU needs 2 out of the next 3 to hit 7 wins, but it’s entirely possible. I think a couple of the games could be tough, but they have the potential to win all 3…that’d make them 8-3 and winning the last 3 straight…they’d be in the playoffs pretty easily.
  4. Western Illinois – 6-2 overall, 3-2 in MVFC, remaining games vs ISUr, vs UNI, @ SIU. Leathernecks need 1 more win to hit 7 D1 wins. I’d say about a 90% chance of winning at least one, probably a 60% chance of winning two of them, and maybe a 30% chance of winning all 3. So, possibly could reach 9-2, although 7-4 or 8-3 is more likely. Either of which should get them into the playoffs, especially considering their 3-0 OOC record against three halfway decent full-scholarship (and 1 FBS) teams. Also, the two toughest of the remaining three games are at home, so that helps their odds a little.
  5. South Dakota – 4-4 overall, 3-2 in MVFC, remaining games @ SIU, @ SDSU, vs NDSU. With the loss to WIU, USD has to win out the season to get to 7 wins. It’s possible…but going to be very hard. They can win the first one, but the last two games are essentially against the two toughest teams in the conference…plus the only home game is against the Bison who travel really well and will probably outnumber the Coyote fans in their own dome, so you can practically treat these as three away games. I just don’t see them getting to 7. 5 wins, sure….6 wins, maybe….7 wins, nope, not this year.
  6. Missouri State – 4-4 overall, 2-3 in MVFC, remaining games @ SDSU, @ ISUr, vs YSU. Are the Bears improved over last year?….sure. Enough to finish with a winning record this season?….probably not. I think all three games will be tough for the Bears…IL State would have been considered probably the “easiest” (not that there is an “easy” in the MVFC) but they showed that they can still compete with the top teams at times this last weekend. I think they might win 1 of these games, although the most likely scenario is probably losing all 3 and finishing 4-7. And remember, one of those wins was against an NAIA team, so doesn’t really count towards playoff consideration anyway. But still, it is an improvement over last year….so, maybe it can be a “moral victory”.
  7. Northern Iowa – 3-5 overall, 2-3 in MVFC, remaining games @ ISUb, @ WIU, vs SDSU. UNI just did not play like themselves for most of the season. What took the fans maybe 2 weeks to realize apparently took the coach another month to figure out. Since then, they’ve destroyed a not-great MSU team and were very competitive with NDSU, and could have won if the QB maybe had a bit more experience in the passing game. It’s hard to predict how they’ll finish out the season now, but I think they will likely win 1-2 of their last three games…the first one, and then possibly one of the last two. SDSU is the better team of the last three, but they do have them at home. Still, at 3 total wins so far, even winning out will only get them to 6-5, which I don’t think will get them into the playoffs, but it’s hard to be 100% sure on that.
  8. Illinois State – 4-5 overall, 2-4 in MVFC, remaining games @ WIU, vs MSU. Despite the big win over conference leader SDSU last weekend, ISU is still not likely to make the playoffs. The first game will probably be the toughest, but if they do win out, I think they probably have the best chance at being a 6-5 getting into the playoffs. They’d have to beat WIU, and then completely blow out MSU, get some help from other bubble teams unexpectedly losing, and get some extra credit for their win over Northwestern early in the season, but it’s possible. I don’t see it likely happening though. I think they’ll most likely finish 1-1 and end up 5-6 on the season.
  9. Indiana State – 4-5 overall, 2-4 in MVFC, remaining games vs UNI, @ NDSU. Well, they got to 4 wins. I doubt they’ll get any more though. Only two games left, and it seems unlikely that they’re in a position to beat either UNI or NDSU. Not saying it couldn’t happen, but it doesn’t seem likely at this point. Most likely, they’re looking at a 4-7 record to finish the season.
  10. Southern Illinois – 2-6 overall, 0-5 in MVFC, remaining games vs USD, @ YSU, vs WIU. Now that MSU has vacated the bottom of the conference standings, someone’s gotta be there. Unfortunately for SIU, none of the remaining games are going to be very easy. They’ve got an outside shot at maybe snagging one from either USD or WIU, but neither seem very likely. Probably 2-9 is the finish that the Salukis are most likely to see on the record books when the season is all over.

So, in the playoffs from the MVFC…I think NDSU, YSU, SDSU, and WIU all make it in. Everyone else is outside looking in at 6 wins or fewer.

Be sure to check out my Week 10 preview article later this week where I take a look at the coming weekend’s matchups: Northern Iowa at Indiana State, Illinois State at Western Illinois, South Dakota at Southern Illinois, Missouri State at South Dakota State, and a big one for the conference title race, Youngstown State at North Dakota State.

Big Sky Review and Power Rankings: Week 9

The 2016 Big Sky football season is just about a month away from kickoff. It’s time to start talking about the upcoming football season and what to expect in this year’s Big Sky Conference.
The 2016 Big Sky football season is just about a month away from kickoff. It’s time to start talking about the upcoming football season and what to expect in this year’s Big Sky Conference.

The Big Sky week nine schedule is complete and two teams are left standing among the undefeated in the conference. Both North Dakota and Eastern Washington held off both of their opponents and will go into November at the top of the conference with three left to play. North Dakota held off a pesky Weber State team at home after falling behind early to the Wildcats. Eastern Washington got a kick in the teeth from the Griz offense right away then Cooper Kupp and Gage Gabrud took the game over. That’s basically the tl;dr of the Eastern/Montana game.

Northern Colorado kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over Portland State this weekend. The game found itself in overtime after the teams inexplicably ended the game at 49 apiece. Northern Colorado had a 29 point third quarter. Brandon Cartagena put this defensive struggle to bed with a ten yard run in overtime. Cal Poly kept its roll going with another defensive struggle against 1-8 Sacramento State. The Mustangs and Hornets combined for 47 points in the fourth quarter but when it was said and done the Mustangs continue their march to the playoffs.

The Big Sky MVP race is starting to tighten up and below it’s listed out for you to read. However, this comes down to basically three players. Gage Gabrud, Cooper Kupp, and Joe Protheroe. Of those three, it really comes down to two, and it’s between the two Eastern Washington players. At this point there is no one going to rip that away from them. My hunch right now is that Gabrud is probably the leader in the clubhouse, but I don’t have a vote so my opinion counts about as much as the money used to buy Baltic Avenue.

Scores

Weber State 19
North Dakota 27

Montana 16
Eastern Washington 35

Southern Utah 52
Idaho State 27

Northern Colorado 56
Portland State 49

Cal Poly 59
Sacramento State 47

Big Sky Player of the Week

I could give this to Cooper Kupp and that’d be the easy thing to do. However, I’m going to deviate. This week’s Big Sky player of the week is Northern Colorado quarterback Kyle Sloter. Sloter was 20/31 for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns in the UNC victory over Portland State. He also added one rushing touchdown on 45 yards.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington. 21/37, 327 yards and four touchdown, 2 INTs.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington. 8 receptions for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Emmanuel Butler, WR, Northern Arizona. Idle.
Joe Protheroe, RB, Cal Poly. 25 carries, 168 yards, 1 touchdown. 1 reception, 4 yards, 1 touchdown.
Caleb Kidder, LB, Montana. 3 tackles.

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Eastern Washington
2. North Dakota
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. Northern Colorado
6. Montana
7. Weber State
8. Southern Utah
9. Portland State
10. Idaho State
11. UC-Davis
12. Sacramento State
13. Montana State

Looking Ahead to Week 10

Montana State will kick the week off by traveling to Cedar City to take on Southern Utah. Northern Arizona will head north to take on Weber State. North Dakota will make the trek to Greeley to take on North Dakota in what could be a surprisingly good game. Portland State will cruise south to take on UC-Davis. Eastern Washington will hit the road to take on Cal Poly in what should be a good matchup. Idaho State will be in Missoula to take on the Griz.

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

– Not a great two weeks, Griz fans. But fear not, two of the next three games feature two of the worst teams in the conference.

– The top six in the Big Sky conference are all still fighting for a playoff spot. Eastern Washington basically has their spot locked up. Northern Arizona may be in too deep of a hole to get into the playoffs. Weber State, Montana, Northern Colorado and Cal Poly are all fighting for their spot. Only two or three of those teams are going to get an invite. The November race is going to be a tight one.

– Cooper Kupp, after watching him play both of the last two weeks, I think I’ve decided that I’d probably draft him onto my football team if I was a person who had a football team to draft players to.

– Seriously, how does anyone slow down Kupp, Shaq Hill and Kendrick Bourne? What a trio of weapons at the fingertips of Gage Gabrud. If Beau Baldwin could figure out that whole “not gonna play defense” thing the Eagles could be serious contenders for a national title.

– It’s a shame that North Dakota didn’t get to see Eastern Washington and Montana this season. It would be interesting to see how that team matched up against two of the better teams in the conference. I wonder if their record would stand as it does right now.

– That leads me to my next point. It’s time to change FCS football. Sit down, this is a hot take coming. With the title game being moved to after New Year’s why aren’t we pushing the playoffs back a week and having conference championships for those who need it? Divide these massive conferences such as the Big Sky, CAA, MEAC, Missouri Valley, OVC, Pioneer, Southland, and SWAC into divisions, hold a true conference championship. By doing so you can get your true auto bid team. Plus with divisions you get the chance to play your division plus 2-3 teams from the other division. You solve a lot of schedule problems, as well as playoff seeding, this way. /rant

– Seems like Washington State needs a Big Sky team to kick them in the teeth to get their team motivated. Last year Portland State, this year Eastern Washington, and the Cougars are now in the hunt for the Pac12 North title. Strange times in Pullman.

SLC: Week 10 preview

Week 9 is in the books in the Southland, and the stage is set for an exciting final three weeks of the regular season. Central Arkansas caged the Lions of Southeastern Louisiana, winning 45-10. Houston Baptist notches another conference win, beating Lamar 24-17. Stephen F Austin gets back in the win column with a strong second half performance, taking down Incarnate Word 42-19, while Nicholls State took over the turf at Turpin, beating Northwestern State 31-14. Sam Houston kept the undefeated season going, taking the Tigers by their tails and destroying Texas Southern 66-17, and McNeese easily handled Abilene Christian 33-14

In looking at the Southland Conference playoff hopes, it is looking like that the conference will probably get two teams in with Sam Houston and Central Arkansas, with teams like McNeese, Nicholls, Southeastern Louisiana and SFA not getting the at-large bids. If Sam Houston and Central Arkansas keep on the trajectory they are on, the match in Huntsville on November 19th could be a top 10 match for the Southland Conference crown.

Here’s your week 10 “Rev”-elations.

=====

Lamar at Nicholls State

Poor Lamar. What had looked to be a promising conference run has turned into disaster with the loss of running back Kade Harrington and quarterback Carson Earp, and while Coach Ray Woodard has the utmost confidence in his players, they didn’t show the poise needed to win last week, falling to Houston Baptist. They travel to the swamp to take on Nicholls State. Nicholls is in an interesting position, because if they can win out with some help in losses to UCA and Sam Houston, they could potentially make their first playoff appearance in almost a decade. Nicholls’ defense is the strength to their team, and they will make this a long day for Lamar. Nicholls wins 28-14, and keeps their fingers crossed for some help with the teams ahead of them in the standings.

=====

Central Arkansas at Stephen F Austin

Central Arkansas continues to go on a tear through conference, and they look to keep it going in Nacogdoches. This game is extra special for Bear fans, as it’s against former longtime coach Clint Conque, and while a win is sweet, a win over your former coach is even sweeter. One issue for Central Arkansas is that they tend to start off slow, and then turn on the jets later in the game, but they’ve been able to keep teams from getting too far ahead of them. They need to watch this versus teams like Stephen F Austin and Sam Houston, who have quick strike ability. Stephen F Austin finally claws back to .500, and while they aren’t completely ineligible for the post season as they can still reach seven wins with six division one wins, they realistically will be watching from home. Quarterback Zach Conque had 296 yards of total offense, threw for three touchdowns, and rushed for another three touchdowns versus Incarnate Word, and he looks to try to break UCA’s defense that ranks eighth in total defense, first in run defense, and tied for 30th in passes intercepted. While the homer in me wants to see SFA put a wrench in UCA’s season, it’s not going to happen as UCA is just too good, and UCA is going to win this one 45-28.

=====

Southeastern Louisiana at Incarnate Word

The Lions were hit with a setback in their playoff hopes Saturday, as they were outmatched by a dominant Central Arkansas defense. Southeastern is dealing with injury, as star quarterback Justin Alo is not 100 percent and he is a key factor in their offense. The Lions look to bounce back as they head to San Antonio to face Incarnate Word. The Cardinals are licking their wounds after SFA had their way with them last weekend. Incarnate Word, in my opinion, is not a bad team by any means; they are just outmatched by conference competition. They look to play the spoiler for Southeastern Louisiana, as a loss by the Lions would all but slam the door on their post season hopes. I think Southeastern squeaks by the Cardinals 28-24.
=====

Northwestern State at Abilene Christian

Well, the good news here is that one of these teams has to win. The Demons still do not have a division one win this year, and are hoping to shock the Wildcats in Abilene. Abilene Christian comes into this one reeling from their loss in Lake Charles to McNeese, and, for the first time in a long time, they are favored to win this game. It definitely has been a shocking year for both of these schools, as no one expected them to be the two bottom feeders of the conference this year. Anyways, Abilene Christian wins “The Battle of the Bad” 35-7.

=====

Houston Baptist at Texas-El Paso

Houston Baptist has two conference wins this year, the most in their history in the Southland, and now take an out of conference body bag game vs the Miners of UTEP. UTEP is pretty bad themselves, sitting at 2-6 this season, and perhaps Houston Baptist can play good enough to get a FBS scalp, and I also might win the lottery as well. UTEP rolls 55-0
=====

McNeese at Sam Houston State

Revenge will be the name of the game, as Sam Houston ruined McNeese’s Championship hopes last year in the playoffs, and the Cowboys are going to look to ruin Sam’s perfect season. McNeese has been a true Jekyll and Hyde team this year, and they have showed flashes of pure brilliance on defense with the DWA, but at the same time, they have had some head scratching losses. Sam Houston comes into this game, just destroying their opposition, and dominating all offensive statistical categories, however, UCA looms on the horizon for the fearless men of the Orange, and this game versus McNeese could be your prototypical trap game for the Kats. This is my Southland Conference Game of the Week, and I think Sam is going to win this, but McNeese is going to give them a fight. Final score: Sam wins 42-38.

AGS GOTW: Week 9 | Montana at Eastern Washington

For the second week in a row the AGS Game of the Week didn’t go the full 10 rounds. Montana and Eastern Washington stood toe-to-toe for the first quarter before the Eagles took advantage of a missed field goal, turnover on downs and interception to pull out to a 21-10 halftime lead.

For the Eagles, Gage Gubrud threw for 327 yards, completing 21 of his 37 attempts, including 4 touchdown passes. Cooper Kupp had 3 of those receiving touchdowns on 8 catches for 140 yards.  Kupp may have hogged the touchdowns, but 9 different Eagle WRs caught a pass on Saturday. Gubrud also threw 2 interceptions on the day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io2AMMwuy3E

The Montana offense put up plenty of yards but had a hard time finishing. The Griz offense had 540 yards on the day, but only had 16 points to show for it. Brady Gustafson finished the day 45 of 63 for 398 and had 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. Jeremy Clahoun led all rushers with 11 carries for 90 yards. I thought Gubrud spread the ball around well, but the Griz had 11 players catch a pass on Saturday. That is definitely the most I remember seeing in a box score for quite a long time.

Moving Forward:

The Griz are in trouble. After slipping up against Northern Arizona they now sit at 5-3 with 3 games remaining. It looks like 8-3 is a pretty good possibility, all but a guarantee that the Griz would be in the playoff field, but two of their last three games are harder than you might think. Northern Colorado has shown some signs of life this season and they end the season with the Brawl of the Wild. The Bobcats are really down this year, but you have to imagine they don’t intend to roll over for their rivals.

Eastern Washington is right where they want to be. They will be in the seed conversation if they win out. The face Cal Poly next, a game which will be a battle of yin and yang: EWU’s potent passing attack vs. Cal Poly’s power triple option game. It’s a very important game for both teams and the Big Sky has shown a lot of parity this season.