Patriot League: Week 7 Review and Power Rankings

Week 7 of the Patriot League season was unquestionably the most interesting one. Holy Cross deciding to fire head coach Tom Gilmore mid-season following Holy Cross’s ugly 32-0 loss to Yale opened a lot of eyes around the league. Gilmore’s time was likely coming to an end either way given his overall body of work (losing record, 1 PL title in 14 years) and the Crusader’s recent collapse but to be let go with the league title still within reach blindsided a lot of people.

As for the games, Lehigh dominated Georgetown to move to 2-0 in league play. Colgate easily defeated Fordham to stay in the thick of the title race after their brutal loss to Lehigh the previous week. Bucknell continued their solid play with a quality, workman-like win over Ivy League rival Cornell. Lafayette came up woefully short in their bid for 3 “Ws” in a row as Harvard put a hurting on the Leopards in Cambridge.

Harvard 38 Lafayette 10

Lafayette (2-5, 2-0) was not able to make it 3 wins in a row as Harvard (3-2) dominated in all phases to continue their mastery of the Leopards. Lafayette was able to defeat Patriot League foes Holy Cross and Fordham by using dominating defensive efforts to offset their struggles on offense.  Harvard was able to rack up 296 yards on the ground against Lafayette which greatly contributed to their 15 minute time of possession advantage.  Also factoring into the Leopard’s demise was their 161 total yards of offense and the 2 kick returns for touchdowns they allowed. The inability to run the ball (12 yards against Harvard, ranked 122nd in FCS overall) continues to a huge issue on offense. The Leopards simply aren’t good enough at quarterback to overcome such a once dimensional offense on a consistent basis against the better teams on their schedule.

It did not take long for Harvard to grab an early 7-0 lead. Justice Shelton-Mosely’s 85 yard punt return touchdown came just over 2 minutes into the game. The Leopards fought back with a game tying touchdown drive on their second possession of the game. Sean O’Malley (20-36 149 yards 1 TD) hit Rocco Palumbo for a short 2 yard TD toss. When they finally had a chance to take the field the Crimson offense rose to challenge with a 7 play 78 yard TD drive. Shelton-Mosely found the endzone for the second time of the day to cap the drive and put Harvard back up by 7 points. After an early flourish of points the game would remain 14-7 until there was 38 seconds left before half. That’s when Charlie Booker III found paydirt from 1 yard out to give Harvard a 21-7 halftime lead. The game would effectively be over when Adam Scott returned the 2nd half kickoff 90 yards for a touchdown to give Harvard a 28-7 lead.

Up Next: Lafayette hosts Bucknell in a huge Patriot League contest. The win will take a significant step forward in their quest for the league title.

Colgate 38 Fordham 12

Colgate (3-4, 1-1) piled onto Fordham’s (1-6, 0-2) season of misery with a dominant 26 point win over the Rams. The Raiders piled up a season best 263 yards (James Hollond Jr 166 yards) and freshman quarterback Grant Breneman (14-25 159 yards 3 TD) played well in the win as the offense continues to trend in the right direction as November closes in. Granted, Colgate has played the 105th (Fordham) and 123rd (dead last Lehigh) the last two weeks so the improvement on “O” was bound to happen. Meanwhile, Fordham’s offense continued to struggle as the Rams lost for the 5th straight time.  To be fair, they were without the services of starting quarterback Kevin Anderson who had to sit out the game with an injury. Backup Luke Medlock (16-32 1 TD 1 INT) put up a reasonable fight but without an effective Chase Edmonds (18 carries 53 yards) the offense faced an uphill climb (279 total yards).

The Colgate offense and defense set the tone early in the game. Edmonds got stuffed for a 2 yard loss on 4th and 1 and the Raider offense took advantage of it. Breneman hit Tre Caine for a 2 yard TD toss that gave the Raiders a 7-0 advantage with 6:40 left in the 1st quarter. On Colgate’s next possession the freshman quarterback notched his second touchdown pass of the day to finish of a lightning quick 2 play 39 yard scoring drive that extended the lead to 14-0. Chris Puzzi’s booming 40 yard field goal as time expired in the first half gave Colgate a commanding 17-0 lead. Breneman’s 14 yard touchdown pass to Tre Caince midway through the 3rd put the game out of reach at 24-0.

Up Next: Colgate heads 3.5 hours east on I-90 to tangle with Holy Cross. Fordham is off to our nation’s capital to take on Georgetown.

Lehigh 54 Georgetown 35

Lehigh (2-5, 2-0) easily dispatched of Georgetown (1-5, 0-1) to notch their 17th consecutive win over the Hoyas. The Mountain Hawks used a dominant offensive performance (628 total yards) to continue their mastery of Georgetown. Lehigh was led by star wide receiver Troy Pelletier’s record breaking day. The senior broke the Patriot League for receptions in a game, 16, on his way to racking up 196 yards and 4 touchdowns in the “W”. The Mountain Hawk defense had their best game of the year statistically but still left a lot to be desired against a Georgetown team that has struggled on offense. If Lehigh wants to pull off the 0-5 start to Patriot League Championshions they much tighten things up on that side of the ball. One major bright spot for the Hoyas in the loss was the play of Gunther Johnson at quarterback (18-33 290 yards 2 TDs, 71 yards 3 TDs rushing). The Arizona transfer has played great the last two weeks after Cole Norris struggled filling in for the injured Tim Barnes.

Both teams struggled on offense to start the game but when they found traction they did so in a big way. Lehigh running back Dominic Bragalone (24 carries 122 yards 2 TDs) got things started with 4:54 left in the 1st quarter when his 5 yard TD run capped an 8 play, 63 yard drive. The Mountain Hawks made it 14-0 on their next drive when Mayes (31-40 384 yards 4 TD 1 INT) and Pelletier hooking up for the first time. Georgetown closed the gap to 14-7 early on the 2nd quarter on Michael Dereus’s (3 rec 98 yards 2 TD) 80 yard touchdown catch. Pelletier’s second TD catch of the day with 8:35 left in the 2nd quarter pushed the Lehigh lead back to 14. However, as has been the case all year, the Lehigh defense would allow a response. Johnson’s 8 yard TD scramble brought the Hoyas back to within 7 points. That would prove to be the closest Georgetown would get the rest of the game. The Mountain Hawks added 2 touchdowns before half to take a commanding 34-14 lead into the locker room. Georgetown would get no closer than 16 points the rest of the game.

Up Next: Georgetown returns home to take on Fordham in what could be a battle for last place in the Patriot League. Lehigh is on a much needed bye as they prepare for the stretch run of the season.

Yale 32 Holy Cross 0

Yale’s (4-1) dominant win over a lifeless Holy Cross (2-5, 1-1) team not only handed the Crusaders their 4th straight loss, it led to the firing of head coach Tom Gilmore Sunday morning. Just 4 weeks ago Holy Cross knocked off a Top 10 New Hampshire in what seemed like a program changing win long tenured was sent packing by AD Nate Pine. Since the win over UNH, there’s been several questionable coaching decisions that directly led to losses to Dartmouth and Lafayette.  While it’s shocking to see a Patriot League coach get fired during the season, Gilmore’s ultimate termination is not surprising. There’s been a lot of speculation surrounding the fiery coach’s future for the last year or two given the Crusader’s inability to rise to the upper echelon of the Patriot League and beyond. Outside of the Dominic Randolph years that culminated in the 2009 Patriot League title, the Crusaders could never get the stars aligned under Gilmore.  The bottom line is he struggled to put a consistent winner on the field during his 14 years in Worcester (72-81 overall, 41-40 in PL play). Barring a league title he seemed destined to be let go after this season given the Crusader’s recent collapse. Offensive coordinator Brian Rock was named interim head coach for the rest of the season. Holy Cross announced that a national search for a new coach is already under way.

As for the game itself, Yale took a 3-0 lead a little less than 5 minutes into the game. The Eli wouldn’t assert their will until the 2nd quarter. That’s when they would score 3 touchdowns and a safety. Matthew Oplinger sacked Pujals in the endzone for the 2 points. When the dust settled on the first half Yale had a commanding 25-0 lead. Holy Cross had 7 punts and 31 total yards during the first 30 minutes of play. The Crusaders looked both unprepared and uninterested from the opening kickoff. Had Yale head coach Tony Reno not called off the dogs in the second half things would have gotten out of hand in a hurry. It was clear the Eli’s focus after halftime was to run clock, secure the win and move onto next week.

The Crusaders managed just 8 first downs and 143 total yards against the Eli. Peter Pujals had his worst game (10-22 89 yards) of his college career in the loss.

Up Next: Holy Cross looks to pick of the pieces and get back into the league race at home against Colgate.

Bucknell 26 Cornell 18

Bucknell (3-3, 0-1) played a smart, efficient game to score a non-conference road victory over Cornell (2-3) in Ithaca, NY. In addition to the usual stingy Bucknell defense, Bison field goal kicker John Burdick came up clutch in the victory. The senior tied a school record with 4 field goals (19, 38, 33 & 28 yards). John Chiarolanzio (11-16 176 yards 2 TDs) had an extremely effective game passing while Joey DeFloria (20 carries 99 yards) enjoyed his best day of the year running the ball to the lead the Bucknell offense. With the win Bucknell concludes the out of conference portion of their schedule 3-2.

The Bison struck first with 8:20 left in the 1st quarter. Chiarolanzio found a streaking Jack Horan (1 rec 64 yards 1 TD) down the middle of the field for a 64 yard touchdown to give Bucknell an early 7-0 lead.  The Blue and Orange would push their lead to 10-0 late in 2nd quarter on Burdick’s first FG of the day. Cornell would finally get on the scoreboard on the ensuring drive when Zach Mayes booted a 35 yard field goal 38 seconds before half time. The Big Red then tied the game up on their first possession of the 2nd half. Bucknell would tack on fields on consecutive drives to take a 16-10 lead with 6:33 left in the 3rd quarter. Chiarolanzio’s second touchdown pass of the day gave Bucknell a two possession lead, 23-10 , with a 35 seconds left in the 3rd. From there the Bucknell rushing attack grounded the clock down and their defense limited Cornell the rest of the way to preserve the win.

Up Next: Bucknell heads to Easton, PA to take on Lafayette in a key game in the Patriot League race. The Bison have not on the league since 1996 and have never reached the FCS playoffs.

Power Rankings

  1. Colgate – The Raiders appear to be the most complete team in league but the loss against Lehigh might be impossible to overcome.
  2. Bucknell – They’re the only team in the Patriot League with a .500 record. They’re not getting the respect they deserve.
  3. Lehigh – At this point the only record that matters is 2-0. They still have the inside track to the league title.
  4. Lafayette – The Leopards have a huge home game with Bucknell next. The offense could be in for a long day.
  5. Holy Cross – The Gilmore era is over but Pujals remains. The Patriot League title is still a possibility if the coaching change makes a positive impact.
  6. Georgetown – The Hoyas might have found their QB of the future in Gunther Johnson. They play hard despite being outgunned.
  7. Fordham – It’s getting close to wondering if the Rams have quit on the season. The Bronx Cheers are growing louder.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1017 – WEEK 7 REVIEW

Lance & Kris review the AGS Poll and several games of importance from last weekend. The lead story the fellers take a look at is Wofford. How are they winning so many close games this season? They dropped a few of them last season and still made the playoffs but this year are the definition of “I don’t care if you win by 1 or a hundred…two, or 3″ but that winning is much sweeter than losing and the air just smells cleaner after that victory.

The games they review this week are:

Northern Iowa 38 South Dakota State 18

James Madison 30 Villanova 8

Wofford 20 The Citadel 16

Stony Brook 38 New Hampshire 24

Southern Utah 32 Weber State 16

North Dakota State 27 Youngstown State 24

 

Give the lads a listen.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Big Sky Round-Up Week 7

The Big Sky week seven is now behind us and now that we’ve had some time to reflect on the events of the past weekend it’s been hard to judge the have’s and the have nots. Obviously Cal Poly and Portland State are have nots, however, this conference is still very much up for grabs. There’s a battle brewing at the top between Eastern Washington, Weber State, Montana, and Northern Arizona for that elusive auto-bid. The Eagles are still sitting at the top of the conference, however, they will probably need to go undefeated to win the league this season.

This week’s Big Sky slate started off with Montana hosting North Dakota on homecoming. The Hawks are basically a walking medical unit, everyone is essentially injured with a handful of starters gone for the season. Safety Cole Reyes being one of the bigger losses for the Hawks. That said, you can imagine the result of this game. It was not pretty, folks. Despite Montana turning the ball over three times in the first quarter the Griz still won 41-17. The game wasn’t really that close, however. James Johannesson came in for a 50 yard touchdown run after a plethora of Griz missed tackles that made this look prettier than it was. Montana was led by redshirt freshman quarterback Gresch Jensen, despite his three turnover, still threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns. The Griz will be on a bye, while North Dakota will host Sacramento State.

Montana State took a trip across I-90 over to the red carpet to take on the Big Sky leading Eastern Washington Eagles. Gage Gabrud kept on doing that thing that will probably win him the league’s most valuable player by throwing for 224 yards and a score. A slight disappointment that he did not have a rushing or receiving touchdown. Apparently he saves those days for when he’s down 20 points at halftime. The Cats tried mounting a fourth quarter comeback with Logan Jones and Nick LaSane scoring touchdowns to close within five, however, the Eagles shut the door with a 13 play, 5:43 drive and a touchdown from Antoine Custer to seal the deal in Cheney. Montana State will head to Northern Colorado this week, while Eastern Washington will walk into a potential buzz saw in Southern Utah.

Case Cookus apparently also wants to be considered for Big Sky MVP as he’s been stringing together a few nice wins for the Lumberjacks. He continued that this past weekend as he led the Jacks to a win in Portland over the second worst team in this conference. Cookus tossed for 347 yards and four touchdowns. His favorite target, Elijah Marks, caught 173 of those and a score in this victory. Portland State struggled all day to get anything going, except their running game. While effective, certainly didn’t result in a lot of points, or at least enough to beat the Jacks. The Vikings rushed for 305 yards and did a good job of holding onto the ball, however, that didn’t stop NAU from beating their pass coverage all day. Portland State will travel to Idaho State next, while Northern Arizona will host UC-Davis in what looks like might be a track meet.

Southern Utah got the win of the week over Weber State in Ogden this past weekend. The Wildcats were sitting pretty with Eastern Washington at the top of the Big Sky standings, however, the horribly unpredictable Thunderbirds beat on the Wildcats. The Thunderbird defense knocked Weber State quarterback Stefan Cantwell out of the game and from there on the Wildcats were bad. In fact, the Wildcats were so bad four different people attempted passes for the Wildcats. Cantwell accounted for half the completions before he exited the game. Thunderbird quarterback Patrick Tyler, however, threw for 281 and three scores. The Thunderbirds were clinging to a 20-19 lead at the half then opened it up in the second half with 10 points in the first eight minutes of the quarter. Weber only managed a field goal in the second half. Weber State will be at Cal Poly, while Southern Utah will host Eastern Washington.

In the #BigSkyAfterDark Sacramento State hosted Idaho State in front of probably seven people (it was actually 10008). Sacramento State actually turned in a nice game, racing out to a 17-7 halftime lead on the Bengals and just kept their foot on the gas from there on out. Hornet quarterback Kevin Thomson completed 18/23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns. The Hornets also had a nice day on the ground, rushing for 318 at 6.2 yards per carry. For those keeping track at home, that’s pretty good YPC. Idaho State was barely above that in yards per pass completion. Idaho State tried to make it interesting in the third quarter with Mitch Gueller catching a pass from his brother for a 30 yard score, to get within ten, however, the Hornets just used the fourth quarter to step on their throat. Idaho State will have a bye, while Sacramento State will be at North Dakota.

Scores

North Dakota 17
Montana 41

Montana State 19
Eastern Washington 31

Northern Arizona 42
Portland State 20

Southern Utah 32
Weber State 16

Idaho State 21
Sacramento State 41

Big Sky Player of the Week

Southern Utah quarterback Patrick Tyler is this week’s Big Sky Player of the Week. Tyler was 20/30 for 281 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Thunderbirds over Weber State this past weekend.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington – 25/31 for 224 yards, 1 TD
Tanner Gueller, QB, Idaho State – 20/35 for 244 yards, 2 TD
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 6 rec, 173 yards, 1 TD
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – Idle
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – 22/35 for 423 yards, 3 TD

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Eastern Washington
2. Weber State
3. Montana
4. Northern Arizona
5. Southern Utah
6. Montana State
7. Sacramento State
8. UC-Davis
9. Northern Colorado
10. Idaho State
11. North Dakota
12. Portland State
13. Cal Poly

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Cal Poly with a goose egg this season is a little bit of a surprise. Not sure since I’ve ever been doing the power rankings that they’ve been in the low man’s spot.. but here they are.

Weber State losing at home to Southern Utah didn’t surprise me all that much. Southern Utah is one of those teams you never want to bet against.. but never want to bet on either. Saturday afternoon I was thinking this was the kind of game that SUU would probably win, and they did, but they had no business winning. Once Stefan Cantwell went down with injury it was all over for the Wildcats.

Northern Arizona is still playing football in October. Too bad they waited until Jerome Souers got fired to try out this new concept. Case Cookus and Elijah Marks are having quite a season as a tandem and currently have the Lumberjacks undefeated in Big Sky play.

To start the season Eastern Washington was 0-2 and only scored 10 points in a Texas Tech team that traditionally gives up all the points to teams they play. My how times of changed, will the Eagles lose a conference game? Looks like Gabrud and his receivers are fully on the same page now.

Two winless Big Sky teams are not the way to promote a strong conference. Luckily Idaho State and Sacramento State are having “up” seasons or else this would be a dumpster fire that the smokejumpers couldn’t contain. The Missouri Valley is likely reveling in the Big Sky’s misery. Whatever, you live in flyover states.

North Dakota’s entire team is hurt. Not really anything to add to that, just thought I’d mention it.

Rob Phenecie was right last week, his Bengals don’t belong on the same field as the Griz. Losing to Sacramento State is pretty much proof positive you should be saddling up with Ricks College and College of Southern Idaho on the field. Perhaps he’ll learn to keep his mouth shut and be a head coach.

 

OVC – Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview

You’re probably not used to me talking much about the Ohio Valley Conference, but I’m filling in for the usual OVC coverage team this time around. I apologize if my coverage isn’t quite up to the level of what I normally do for the MVFC, but hopefully I can get you enough info to stay up-to-date with the goings on around the OVC region.

For reference, rankings listed are from the AGS Poll.

OVC Conference Standings

School Overall OVC Remaining Games
Eastern Illinois 5-2 4-0 JSU, @UTM, EKU, @AP
#4 Jacksonville State 5-1 3-0 @EIU, SEMO, MSU, @UTM, TSU
Austin Peay 4-3 3-1 SEMO, @U. Central Florida (FBS), @TTU, @EKU, EIU
Southeast Missouri State 2-4 2-1 @AP, @JSU, UTM, @TSU, MSU
UT Martin 3-3 1-2 @EKU, EIU, @SEMO, JSU, @TTU
Murray State 2-5 1-2 EKU, @JSU, TTU, @SEMO
Tennessee State 4-3 1-3 @TTU, Virginia U. Lynchburg, SEMO, @JSU
Eastern Kentucky 1-5 1-3 UTM, @MSU, @EIU, AP, Saint Francis U.
Tennessee Tech 0-7 0-4 TSU, AP, @MSU, UTM

 

Now, I’m not as familiar with the OVC’s history of making the playoffs as I am with the MVFC, but it looks like Jacksonville State is pretty much a lock for the playoffs. There’s a couple of teams that could make things a little interesting, but they are favored by quite a bit in all the rest of their games. Beyond that, I think either Eastern Illinois or Austin Peay have a shot, depending on how they do in their remaining games. Austin Peay, a team that had 1 win in the previous 4 years combined has been particularly impressive, especially considering they are playing 3 FBS teams this year (Cincinnati, Miami OH, and Central Florida). If they are able to win their remaining FCS games, then I think they’ll also get strong consideration.

Last Week’s Games

Eastern Illinois at Murray State

EIU RB Isaiah Johnson rushed for an exceptional 236 yards and a TD and picked up the OVC Offensive Player of the Week and Newcomer of the Week awards, which helped counteract the 3 interceptions thrown by EIU QB Bud Martin. Murray State QB had a great day, throwing for 332 yards and 2 TDs (and 1 INT), mostly to receiver Jordon Gandy who caught 10 passes for 193 yards and 1 TD. EIU’s defense held Murray State to only 58 net yards rushing, but three Murray State players (DBs D’Montre Wade, Zach Shipley, and Don Parker) all had INTs in the game.
Murray State had the first TD of the game, but Eastern Illinois came back with a couple of their own in the second quarter to take a 14-7 lead into halftime. EIU padded their lead in the 3rd quarter with another TD before MSU raced from behind with two of their own in the fourth to tie up the game at 21 and take it to OT. Each team got a FG in the first OT session, then in the second OT, EIU was able to get another FG and then block MSU’s attempt to tie it again, giving the win to the Panthers.

Eastern Illinois – 27
Murray State – 24

Tennessee Tech at Southeast Missouri State

SEMO QB Jesse Hosket threw for 3 TDs and 161 yards, 109 going to WR Kristian Wilkerson along with one of the TDs. RB Cameron Sanderson had a 102 yard performance…mostly on one 70-yard TD run. The Redhawks Punter, Jake Reynolds averaged 45.9 yards on 7 punts including crushing a 78-yard bomb (4th longest in school history) and picked up the OVC Specialist of the Week award. Tennessee Tech wasn’t able to get much going at all, turning the ball over 3 times and getting fewer than 200 yards of total offense. PK Nick Madonia kicked a 37-yard FG for TTU’s only score of the game.
In the first quarter, SEMO would rush out to a 17-point lead before TTU would get their first and only points in the second quarter on a FG. Both teams were held scoreless in the 3rd before SEMO blew things open with two more TDs.

Southeast Missouri State – 31
Tennessee Tech – 3

Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State

JSU QB Bryan Horn threw for 158 yards and 1 TD while running for 73 yards and 2 TDs. S Marlon Bridges had an interception taken back 73 yards for a TD, and CB Siran Neal had another INT. JSU DE Darius Jackson picked up 7 tackles, 3 for loss (including 1 sack), 2 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery…the combined performance of which earned him the OVC Defensive Player of the Week award. Kicker Cade Stinnett hit FGs from 24 and 46 yards out and 5/5 on FGs. EKU QB Tim Boyle had 186 yards and 1 TD, but also 2 INTs. EKU DB Kobie Grace led the Colonels with 9 tackles including 1 for loss and 2 pass breakups.
The Gamecocks had a huge first half, outscoring Eastern Kentucky 31-3 and was pretty much able to coast along from there. The Colonels picked up their first TD late in the 3rd quarter which was followed up by another JSU TD early in the 4th. EKU did run for a couple more TDs in the 4th, but the game was pretty much out of reach well before that point.

Eastern Kentucky – 25
Jacksonville State – 41

Austin Peay at Tennessee State

AP QB Jeremiah Oatsvall ran for nearly as many yards as he passed for with 85 passing and 82 rushing. All of the Governors scores came on rushing TDs, courtesy of RBs Ahmaad Tanner and Prince Momodu, and WR Kentel Williams. LB Gunnar Scholato led the team with 8 tackles (2.5 for loss) and DE Jaison Williams had a great performance with 7 tackles including 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble. Tennessee State QB Michael Hughes had 148 yards and 1 passing TD to WR DeVon Johnson who finished the game with 91 yards. TSU Long Snapper Thomas Newberg also caught his first TD pass of his college career in a successful fake FG.
A low-scoring first half saw just an AP TD and TSU FG, resulting ina 7-3 halftime score. In the 3rd, the Governors increased their lead with another TD, which TSU responded to with one of their own. In the 4th, the Tigers got their first lead of the game with a 66-yard TD pass to go ahead by 3. Austin Peay battled back and regained the lead with a TD with just over 1 minute remaining, after which they held on to seal the victory. With the Win, the Governors reached 4 wins for the first time since the 2009 season.

Austin Peay – 21
Tennessee State – 17

Next Week’s Games

2:00 PM – #4 Jacksonville State (5-1, 3-0 OVC) at Eastern Illinois (5-2, 4-0 OVC) – ESPN3/WatchESPN.com


The “Game of the Week” in the OVC sees a matchup between the two conference unbeaten teams, which will go a long way to deciding who gets the conference’s automatic playoff bid, and who has to scrape by the rest of the conference in the hopes of an at-large bid. JSU’s strong ground game and run defense roll up to Charleston, IL hoping to come away with another win, while EIU, who hasn’t been putting impressive numbers overall, has still picked up 4 conference wins on their ability to get turnovers, get defense pressure behind the line of scrimmage, block kicks, and return punts well.

2:00 PM – UT Martin (3-3, 1-2 OVC) at Eastern Kentucky (1-5, 1-3 OVC) – OVCDN


UT Martin statistically has the best defense in the OVC, but their offense has struggled, barely putting up 20 points per game on average. RB Ladarius Galloway is averaging just under 105 ypg, although the majority of those yards came in games against Ole Miss and Clarion University at the beginning of the season. They may not need too many points against an Eastern Kentucky team that has had problems on both sides of the ball. EKU has a long history of success on the gridiron, but this year doesn’t really seem to fit that mold. They do have a decent passing offense, but are fairly one-dimensional with almost no run game to speak of. Their punter is currently 5th in the FCS for punting average with just over 45 yards per punt.

4:00 PM – Southeast Missouri State (2-4, 2-1 OVC) at Austin Peay (4-3, 3-1) – OVCDN


SEMO is on a two-game win streak…against the two teams at the bottom of the OVC. They did play close in their losses to EIU and Dayton, though and in their last three games are averaging just under 11 ppg allowed. Meanwhile, AP is allowing the 4th fewest passing yards in the entire FCS and have a solid running game, putting up 235 ypg. They also have a quality O-line that has allowed only 6 sacks in their 7 games. The Governors are looking to reach 5 wins for the first time since 2007.

My Picks

I think Jacksonville State‘s offense will be able to overpower Eastern Illinois, putting up plenty of points in a Gamecocks win.
UT-Martin will be able to nearly completely shut down Eastern Kentucky’s offense and get enough of their ground game going for a Skyhawks victory.
And this year’s OVC “Cinderella Story” team, Austin Peay, will pick up win #5 in a low scoring Homecoming celebration.

SOCON Week 7 Review

Furman 42 VMI 10

Furman extended their winning streak to 4 games as they pummeled the struggling VMI Keydets in Greenville. Clay Hendrix’s high-powered offense led by Senior Quarterback P.J. Blazejowski scored 40 points for the fourth consecutive game this season, a school record.  The Paladins finished the day with 523 yards off offense and held the Keydets to a respectable 256 yards of offense.

VMI was able to put up a fight for the first half of play, forcing the Paladins to punt 4 times and holding them to two touchdowns on seven possessions. The Keydets benefited from a 34 yard Rohan Martin punt return that resulted in a 30 yard field goal by Grant Clemons,  a touchdown pass from Duncan Hodges to Rohan Martin, and botched time management by the Paladins at the goal line to go into the half with behind 14-10.

The Paladins would not be denied in the second half, taking all of five of their second half possessions on long drives, scoring on four of them.  The Furman defense stood tall, forcing two punts and an interception.

P.J Blazejowski continues to prove himself of All-Socon consideration, finishing the day 8 of 15 for 145 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 74 yards on 5 carries.  The Paladins controlled the line of scrimmage all day, out-rushing VMI 354 to 117. Kealand Dirks led the way for the Paladins on the ground, rushing for 82 yards on 23 carries with two touchdowns.

Next week, the Paladin offense has a tall order ahead of it against the Mercer Bears, who lead the conference in scoring defense. Furman has moved the ball at will in the last 4 weeks against weaker opponents and the challenge next week will be to continue that level of scoring with a formidable opponent such as Mercer.

VMI has yet to find solid ground to establish momentum for next season and beyond.  It doesn’t help that they play Western Carolina next week, in a game where they will be as heavy of underdogs as they’ve been all season.

Mercer 30 Chattanooga 10

The offensive woes for the Chattanooga Mocs continued as they once again failed to eclipse the 50 yard mark running the football.  Mercer Quarterback Kaelan Riley had an impressive day, completing 20 of 27 passes for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns.

After both teams traded punts to begin the game, Chattanooga was able to put points on the board first, with a 44 yard field goal to start the second quarter. Mercer was able to quickly answer, scoring on a 4 play, 66-yard drive that took only 1:22 off the clock. Disconcertingly, Cole Fisher missed the extra point, his second of the year, capping the Bears lead at 6-3.  The teams then exchanged punts again.  Mercer drove the ball inside the 20, but Cole Fisher missed another field goal.  The Bears would not be denied, however, scoring a 22 yard touchdown pass to Chandler Curtis on their next drive.  At the end of the first half, the score stood at 13-3.

The Bears were able to pounce on the Mocs in the second half, forcing them to punt on their first 3 drives of the second half while answering them with points on each drive.  At the end of three quarters, the Bears controlled the Mocs 23-3.

Chattanooga was able to finally score with 6:24 left in the game on a five yard touchdown run on Darrell Bridges, bringing the tally to 23-10. The Mocs attempted an onside kick that failed, but were able to force a three and out.  Having full confidence in their defense, Bobby Lamb’s Bears punted the ball, downing it at the 1.  The Mocs failed to get a first down in their first 3 downs, and pressed for time had to attempt a fourth down conversion which failed.  On the next play, the Bears easily scored on a 6 yard Tee Mitchell run, bringing the score to its final 30-10.

Next week, Chattanooga’s struggling offense welcomes the 3-3 Citadel Bulldogs. Both teams will be looking to turn their season around as we progress to the second half of the season.  Mercer will bring its stellar defense to play the efficient offensive powerhouse of Furman.  The Bobby Lamb Battle will answer many question SOCON viewers have about the Bears’ defense and the Furman offense. The Bears’ defense have yet to face any of the top offenses in the SOCON (Western Carolina, Furman, Samford), while the Furman offense has pile-driven three of the conference’s worst defenses (ETSU, UTC and VMI).  There’s no denying that both teams appear to be hitting their stride at this point of the season, Saturday will determine who is ready to take their team to the next level. The unmovable object meets the unstoppable force in Greenville on Saturday!

Western Carolina 49 ETSU 10

In this week’s surprise outcome, Western Carolina walloped the Bucs of ETSU.  The outcome was a surprise not because the Catamounts won, but because the way they were able to win.  The Catamounts were held to a season-low 327 yards of offense, but were able to score touchdowns on defense and special teams to maintain their SOCON-leading scoring average.

The real surprise came from the Catamount defense, which held ETSU to a season low 10 points.  The Bucs aren’t a team fully prepared for SOCON football as they’re only in their third full year with a football team, but they have nevertheless shown persistent improvement on the offensive side of the ball, upsetting Mercer earlier this year and hanging 35 points against Furman. Though the Catamount defense has shown improvement this year compared to last, it was unexpected that they would keep ETSU to such low scoring numbers.  When you score fast and often like Western does, no matter how good your defense is, your opponent is more likely to score points because they have more possessions. That was not the case Saturday.

The first half was a defensive struggle (another surprise) that saw Western Carolina lead 7-3 over the Bucs.  The Bucs were able to run for over 90 yards in the first half (another surprise) and Western Carolina was held to under 150 yards of offense.

The Western Carolina Defense blew the game open in the second half, scoring on their first 2 possessions and forcing 3 turnovers which set up 2 easy touchdowns and a pick six.

Western Carolina improves their record to 5-2, edging ever closer to (at least) an at-large playoff berth. They will be favored against VMI in Lexington next week.  The playoff path forward for the Catamounts lies in winning at least 2 of their next four against VMI, Furman, The Citadel and Mercer.

ETSU will get a bye week to prepare for Wofford’s triple option in two weeks. This team is still dangerous, it just can’t afford to lose the turnover battle against potent offenses such as Western Carolina.

Wofford 20 The Citadel 16

Without a doubt, this game was the best of the week.  The undefeated Terriers went into Charleston looking for their sixth win, and the young Citadel Bulldogs looked to turn around their season after dropping two straight SOCON contests. This rivalry game has seen some heightened drama recently: Wofford ended the Citadel’s season last year with a 17-3 win in Charleston in the second round of the playoffs.  The two option offenses and stout defenses are the perfect match up and trap game for each other no matter what.  Four of the last five games and five of the last seven games between the two have come down to one score in the fourth quarter.

To start the game, The Citadel controlled the line of scrimmage, time of possession and ultimately the scoreboard after the first 30 minutes, 14-7.  Wofford struggled to run the option all night, as the veteran Citadel defense had at least one player in the backfield every play. Wofford was able to turn to an unlikely tactic to offset the stout Bulldog defense: the passing game.

For the first time since the 1980s and Wofford’s division one era, the Terrier offense passed for 219 yards. Quarterback Brandon Goodson completed 11 of 17 passes and a touchdown.

The Terrier defense stood tall in the second half, holding the Citadel offense to 1 first down and 68 yards.

A key sequence happened in the third quarter. After Wofford running back Andre Stoddard fumbled a pitch inside the Wofford 20, Citadel Quarterback Jordan Black scrambled toward the endzone but fumbled on the goal line. The ball was recovered by Wofford, but two plays later the stiff Citadel defense tackled Brandon Goodson in the endzone for a safety.

The suspense reached a climax when Wofford took ball with 6:23 left, driving 68 yards on 13 plays and taking 5:13 off the clock. Brandon Goodson completed all 4 of his passes for 39 yards, knocking the Citadel offense off-balance and vulnerable to the option. Fullbacks Andre Stoddard and Chase Nelson together carried the ball 8 times for 23 yards, pounding the ball into the endzone on third and goal. On that drive the Terriers converted 3 of 3 third down attempts, including a strong 8 yard run by Chase Nelson on 3rd and 8 inside the redzone with less than 2 minutes left.

After Wofford came short on the two point conversion, on the ensuing possession they were able to stop Jordan Black a yard short of the yard to gain on a fourth and thirteen. The Terriers held on to win another close game, the 5th this season to be decided by a touchdown or less.

The performance did not produce the desired outcome for the Citadel Bulldogs, but the effort was an improvement on previous contests. The Bulldogs were able to limit their turnovers, breaking even on the turnover battle, but it came at an inopportune time at the goal-line, perhaps costing them at least 1 point and at most 5 points. More concerning for the Bulldogs is the lack of offensive efficiency in the last month of the season. In the last 3 contests, the Citadel offense has scored 14 points in each game. It’s improbable that this team will make the playoffs after this loss, but it’s still possible if they win out.  If they have any hope to do so, they have to score more points. They’ll do so next week at Chattanooga.

For Wofford, the contest falls in line with the trend of the year. The Terriers have won 5 games this year by a touchdown or less.  The Terriers have outscored their opponents 51-19 in the fourth quarter. Halfway through the season, Wofford has the shortest path to a Socon championship as they hold tie-breakers against all possible contenders except Samford, who they play next week in Spartanburg.

If Wofford loses, they can hope to still share the title, but if they beat the Bulldogs from Birmingham they’ll be favored to win the title outright, with their remaining 3 opponents being the three teams at the bottom of the Socon standings.

Samford will be coming off a bye and has the credentials of beating option and flexbone teams such as the Citadel and Kennesaw state. Having only one loss in the Socon so far, they are very much still alive to win at least a share of the Socon. It looks like another Wofford game that will come down to the wire in Spartanburg.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 7 Results

The week 7 AGS Poll had a relatively stable top end of the rankings but once we got past the top 6 things really got turned over. The top 5 remained the same as last week with James Madison, North Dakota State, South Dakota, Jacksonville State, and Wofford forming the top 5 in that order.

Richmond rose up 6 spots this week to #12 taking advantage mostly of teams in front of them falling off since the Towson team they beat was not overly impressive so far this year. The same was the case for Western Carolina who moved up 6 spots as well to #14 only for blowing out 3-4 East Tennessee State. Stony Brook moved up 5 spots to #19 following an impressive win over New Hampshire. The only new team in the top 25 this week was Southern Utah who rose all they way to #25 after not even being in the top 40 last week following their upset win over Weber State.

South Dakota State took one of the biggest tumbles of the week dropping 7 spots to #15 after getting demolished at home by unranked Northern Iowa. Weber State and New Hampshire each dropped 9 spots following their aforementioned losses Southern Utah and Stony Brook with both barely hanging onto their top 25 spot coming in at #23 and #24, respectively. Illinois State dropped all the way out of the top 25 from #16 following an embarrassing loss to Southern Illinois.

The CAA led the way placing 7 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the Big Sky and the MVFC with 5 each and the SOCON and Southland with 3 each in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1912 67
2 North Dakota State Bison 1841 4
3 South Dakota Coyotes 1750 6
4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1675
5 Wofford Terriers 1582
6 Central Arkansas Bears 1525
7 Western Illinois Leathernecks 1339
8 Eastern Washington Eagles 1315
9 Youngstown State Penguins 1295
10 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1275
11 Elon Phoenix 1174
12 Richmond Spiders 926
13 North Carolina A&T Aggies 859
14 Western Carolina Catamounts 695
15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 694
16 Villanova Wildcats 664
17 Samford Bulldogs 656
18 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 632
19 Stony Brook Seawolves 590
20 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 494
21 McNeese State Cowboys 369
22 Montana Grizzlies 351
23 Weber State Wildcats 343
24 New Hampshire Wildcats 265
25 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 133
ORV:
26 Albany Great Danes 119
27 Illinois State Redbirds 93
28 Northern Iowa Panthers 77
29 Dartmouth Big Green 73
30 Grambling State Tigers 65
31 Monmouth Hawks 64
32 Nicholls State Colonels 61
33 Furman Paladins 45
34 North Carolina Central Eagles 30
35 Kennessaw State Owls 18
36 Eastern Illinois Panthers 8
37 The Citadel Bulldogs 4
38T Austin Peay Governors 2
38T Columbia Lions 2
40 UC Davis Aggies 1

Most Significant Win: North Dakota State Bison
Most Significant Loss: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Join the discussion at: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197454-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-7-10-16-2017

MVFC – Week 7 in Review

MVFC LogoWeek 7 in the books and another interesting week in the MVFC. A couple of big “upsets”, a close game delayed by weather, and a “Game of the Week” that lived up to it’s billing, going to an exciting overtime finish.

First up though, let’s take a look at conference standings, where teams are in relation to being set up for a playoff spot or if they’re already out of the picture. I’ll list the team, then overall record, conference record, and then each team’s remaining games of the regular season.

School Overall Conference Remaining 5 Games
North Dakota State 6-0 3-0 WIU, UNI, @SDSU, USD, @ILSU
South Dakota 6-0 3-0 @ILSU, SIU, @UNI, @NDSU, SDSU
Western Illinois 5-1 2-1 @NDSU, SDSU, @ILSU, @INSU, SIU
Illinois State 4-2 2-1 USD, @YSU, WIU, @SDSU, NDSU
Northern Iowa 3-3 2-1 YSU, @NDSU, USD, @MSU, INSU
South Dakota State 4-2 1-2 @MSU, @WIU, NDSU, ILSU, @USD
Youngstown State 3-3 1-2 @UNI, ILSU, @INSU, @SIU, MSU
Southern Illinois 3-3 1-2 @INSU, @USD, MSU, YSU, @WIU
Missouri State 1-5 0-3 SDSU, @INSU, @SIU, UNI, @YSU
Indiana State 0-6 0-3 SIU, @MSU, YSU, WIU, @UNI

For reference, in recent history, I believe only one 8-DI-win MVFC team has been excluded from the playoffs (YSU in 2013, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season, but was tied with 3 other MVFC teams at 5-3 in the conference). In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.

NDSU and USD are both 6-0 on the season and are practically “locks” for the playoffs at this point.
WIU at 5-1 is still in a good position, but they’ll still need to win a couple more to remove any doubt.
ILSU and SDSU are both 4-2 and they’ll have to win 3 out of their remaining 5 to get to 7 wins. I think SDSU has a little bit of an advantage over ILSU in that department with a slightly easier remaining schedule.
YSU, UNI, and SIU are 3-3 overall and probably need to win 4 out of 5 to be solidly in the playoffs. YSU has the best chance, due to a very favorable late-season schedule as well as playing very well against the top teams in the conference.
MSU is 1-5 and can only get to 6-5 if they win out…unlikely but technically still possible if they tear through their remaining schedule (I don’t see that happening though).
INSU is 0-6 and can finish 5-6 at best, so they’re “officially” eliminated from playoff consideration.

#16(T) Illinois State at Southern Illinois (Homecoming)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
ILSU 0 0 7 0 7
SIU 7 14 7 14 42

Quick Hits:

  • ILSU – QB Jake Kolbe throws for 232 yards a 1 TD, but had 3 INTs
  • ILSU – WR Spencer Schnell caught 74 yards and a TD for the Redbirds’ only score of the game
  • ILSU – LB Tyree Horton and DB Willie Edwards each had 8 tackles
  • SIU – QB Sam Straub has 368 passing yards, 4 TDs, and 45 rushing yards and took home a MVFC Co-Offensive Player of the Week award.
  • SIU – WR Connor Iwema nabs 6 passes for 118 yards
  • SIU – RB DJ Davis runs for 60 yards and catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs
  • SIU – S Jeremy Chinn, CB Craig James, and CB Roman Tatum each have an INT, with James also getting a fumble recovery

This was VERY unexpected for me. I didn’t really think ILSU was as good as their ranking had indicated, especially after their loss to Northern Arizona…but to only get one score against SIU was mindboggling to me. It was fairly evident from their game against Memphis that SIU’s offense could put up points, but their weakness had been their defense. So, either ILSU’s offense is REALLY struggling, or SIU’s defense really stepped up for their Homecoming game. SIU put up 21 points each half while holding ILSU to just one TD in the 3rd as their only score.

Illinois State falls to 4-2 overall, 2-1 in the conference and will head back home to host the 6-0 USD Coyotes next weekend.
Southern Illinois picks up a big “rivalry” win, moving to 3-3 with a 1-2 conference record and will head over to take on 0-6 Indiana State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Redbirds by 7
It was: Salukis by 35
I…um…as I said…VERY unexpected result for me. I was completely off-base on this one. This wasn’t a swing and a “whiff”…this was swinging at a wild pitch that hadn’t even left the pitchers hand yet.

Indiana State at #3 South Dakota

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
INSU 3 3 0 0 6
USD 7 21 14 14 56

Quick Hits:

  • INSU – PK Jerry Nunez goes 2-2 on FGs from 20 and 35 yards for the Sycamores only scores
  • INSU – S Brenton Lockett leads the team with 8 tackles and had a forced fumble
  • INSU – DE Inoke Moala gets the fumble recovery
  • USD – QB Chris Streveler throws for 337 yards and 4 TDs and ran for 82 yards and 1 TD and received a MVFC Co-Offensive Player of the Week award.
  • USD – WRs Brandt Van Roekel and Cody Case each catch 2 TDs, with Van Roekel leading the team with 108 yards
  • USD – LB Jim Litrenta leads the team with 8 tackles

Ok, so this one is pretty much as expected. The Coyotes are doing just phenomenally well right now (and yes, that phrase still sounds very strange to me), and the Sycamores can’t seem to get much going. They have some decent players in spots, but they’ve had injuries in key positions across the lines and it’s obviously affecting their ability to compete with the other MVFC teams. 28 points in the first half for the Coyotes while allowing only two FGs gave them a 22-point lead at halftime. They spent the rest of the game putting up TDs at a rate of 2 per quarter and held the Sycamores to a total of 53 offensive yards and zero points, including 3 3-and-out’s.

Indiana State drops to 0-6 with 3 of those MVFC games, and will welcome the 3-3 SIU Salukis to Terre Haute next weekend.
South Dakota is the exact opposite, at 6-0, 3-0 in the conference, and next will head down to Normal to play Illinois State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Coyotes by 24 (Probably could be worse, but USD will pull Streveler in the 3rd quarter)
It was: Coyotes by 50 (and they did pull Streveler at the end of the 3rd quarter)
A bit off on the margin, but pretty close. I was pretty sure that by the time the 4th quarter rolled around, USD would be ahead enough to go second-string. I didn’t count on them being up by 36 already by then, and I didn’t count on the backups putting up two more TDs. Still, I think this counts.

Northern Iowa at #8 South Dakota State (Hobo Days/Homecoming)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
UNI 17 7 0 14 38
SDSU 0 6 6 6 18

Quick Hits:

  • UNI – QB Eli Dunne throws for 169 yards and 2 TDs
  • UNI – RB Marcus Weymiller has quite a game, running for 170 yards and 2 TDs
  • UNI – LB Jared Farley led the team with 7 tackles, 1 for loss and had a pass breakup
  • UNI – DB Elijah Campbell picks off a pass and takes it back 46 yards
  • UNI – LG Jackson Scott-Brown played a big part in opening up holes for UNI’s ground game and was awarded the MVFC Offensive Lineman of the Week award.
  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion has 280 yards and 2 TDs, but also 1 INT
  • SDSU – TE Dallas Goedert catches for 120 yards and a TD
  • SDSU – LB Christian Rozeboom doubles up the #2 player in total tackles, with 14 total

Wow…like SIU over ILSU, this one blew my mind. SDSU’s offense from last year could put up 18 points in a quarter…in their sleep (actually maybe that’s the problem…Jackrabbit fans, are they trying to up the difficulty level this year and are actually playing while asleep?). This year, those points often seem to be much harder to come by, with the UNI defense essentially shutting them down for most of the game. At first glance, I was astounded with how bad (or good) SDSU’s kicker must be…either hitting 6 FGs…or missing 3 XPs in the game, but then I dug through and realized that he “only” missed one XP and the other two attempts were going for 2 points (maybe that is a commentary on how bad their kicker is though?) UNI nearly outscored SDSU’s whole game total with just their 1st quarter numbers. The Jackrabbits had a shot, pulling within 12 near the end of the 3rd quarter, but a big 4th quarter performance put the game (and Hobo Day win) out of reach.

Northern Iowa moves on up to an even 3-3 record, 2-1 in the conference, and will head back to their home dome and have a very tough game against 3-3 Youngstown State next Saturday.
South Dakota State drops to 4-2, 1-2 in the conference and will next take on the 1-5 Missouri State Bears down in Springfield, MO.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 6
It was: Panthers by 20
Missed by a mile on this one.

Missouri State at #10 Western Illinois (Family Day)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
MSU 14 7 3 6 30
WIU 7 6 15 21 49

Quick Hits:

  • MSU – QB Peyton Huslig threw for 194 yards and an INT and ran for 51 yards
  • MSU – WR Malik Earl had a great game with 14 catches for 145 yards and 35 yards and a TD on the ground
  • MSU – LB Angelo Garbutt led the team with 8 tackles
  • MSU – DL Colby Isbell only had 4 tackles, but 3 were for loss including 1 sack and had a forced fumble
  • WIU – QB Sean McGuire had 249 yards and 3 TDs passing
  • WIU – WR Jaelon Acklin caught for 86 yards and 1 TD and ran for 62 yards and another TD
  • WIU – RB Steve McShane had 143 rushing yards and 1 TD, while RB Max Norris had 2 rushing TDs and 75 yards
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor picked up 16 tackles including 2 for loss (1 sack) and had 2 pass breakups and received another MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award.

This was a wierd game…MSU went up early, at one point having a 14-point lead, before taking a 21-13 score to (first) halftime. Third and early in the fourth quarters, WIU came back and it was mostly back and forth. With a bit over 5 minutes left in the 4th, WIU was up by 5 and MSU had just received the punt with a lot of momentum, when a line of storms came through the area (including tornadoes in nearby counties) causing the second “halftime”…a 99-minute weather delay. Western came back out firing on all cylinders, forcing two turnovers on downs, while scoring TDs on each of their drives to get the win. As a Leatherneck fan, I was somewhat disappointed with the inability of some of our defenders to make tackles, although I knew that MSU’s offense could be pretty high-scoring at times. Still, this doesn’t give me a lot of confidence when going against certain types of offenses.

Missouri State falls to 1-5, 0-3 in conference, and head back home to take on 4-2 South Dakota State next weekend.
Western Illinois moves ahead to 5-1, with a 2-1 conference record and will have what looks like their toughest game of the regular season next Saturday…at the Fargodome…against the 6-0 NDSU Bison.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 20
It was: Leathernecks by 19
Looks pretty close, although kinda like last week’s game against UNI, the score didn’t really tell the whole tale of how close the game was right up until the final minute or two. Still, only off by 1 point on my pick counts as a win in my book.

#2 North Dakota State at #7 Youngstown State (Football Alumni Day)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT Final
NDSU 0 10 7 7 3 27
YSU 10 0 7 7 0 24

Quick Hits:

  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 113 yards and 2 TDs but also ran for 172 yards and 1 TD
  • NDSU – LB Nick DeLuca had 12 total tackles, 1 for loss
  • NDSU – LB Jabril Cox had 8 tackles, but 3 were for loss (2 sacks) including some key ones near the end of the game and was awarded the MVFC Newcomer of the Week award and the STATS FCS National Freshman Player of the Week award.
  • NDSU – PK Cam Pederson was 2/2 on FGs including a 19-yarder and the game winning 36-yarder in OT which got him a MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award.
  • YSU – QB Nathan Mays threw for 188 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 81 yards
  • YSU – WR Damoun Patterson had 71 receiving yards and 1 TD
  • YSU – RB Tevin McCaster ground out 62 yards and a TD against the strong Bison run defense
  • YSU – DT Donald Mesier and LB Armand Dellovade led the team with 8 tackles (one of Mesier’s was a 7-yard sack)

This “Game of the Week” lived up to the hype with the Penguins going ahead early by 10, only to have the Bison battle back and make it a 10-10 tie at halftime. After the break, it was mostly back and forth with YSU and NDSU finishing regulation all knotted up at 24-all. Playing a bit of extra football (that was actually still ongoing when I started writing the first part of this whole article), the Bison were able to hold YSU to a total of 2 yards, where they missed the 39-yard attempted FG. Then it was NDSU’s turn, where they also struggled to get the ball going the right way, moving only 6 yards towards the end zone, but they were able to finish it off with a successful 36-yard FG kick to win. Actually it was missed (left) FG on the first attempt, but YSU had called a timeout right before the kick, giving the Bison a “mulligan”. On the second attempt, PK Cam Pederson was able to sneak it through the right side of the goalposts for the win. One other thing…Stick won the “Best Running QB” award between the two QBs who also led their respective teams in rushing yardage.

North Dakota State are sitting at the top of the conference with USD as the only undefeated teams at 6-0 (3-0 in MVFC), and will head back home to Fargo and host the 5-1 Western Illinois Leathernecks next Saturday.
Meanwhile, Youngstown State also heads west next weekend, but for them, it’s to take on 3-3 Northern Iowa.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 7
It was: Bison by 3
I figured it’d be close…real close. This one doesn’t really surprise me at all. YSU is a very good team, but NDSU is just a little bit better.

I was 31-9 in my picks this season going into this week. With the upsets this week, I was 3-2. That puts me at 34-11 for the season so far.

The big game in the conference next week is probably 5-1 Western Illinois at 6-0 North Dakota State. It’s going to be a really tough game for my Leathernecks, but they have looked really good at times, so they could keep it a close one. Then again, it could be like last time we played at the Fargodome where we got toasted by 52 and had one of the plays featured on the ESPN Top 10 (it wasn’t a good one for the purple and gold). Other interesting matchups include Youngstown State at Northern Iowa (I didn’t think that one would be close, but UNI did really well this weekend…so…who knows?) and actually, South Dakota State and Missouri State could either provide a chance for the Jackrabbits to get things back on track…or go down in flames.
Check back later this week for my full preview of all of the Week 8 games in the MVFC.

AGS Top 25 – How They Fared Week 7 2017

As always, many thanks to the superman7515 on AGS.

#1 James Madison Dukes Won vs #12 Villanova Wildcats 30-8
#2 North Dakota State Bison Won at #7 Youngstown State Penguins 27-24 (OT)
#3 South Dakota Coyotes Won vs Indiana State Sycamores 56-6
#4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Won vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels 41-25
#5 Wofford Terriers Won at #31 The Citadel Bulldogs 20-16
#6 Central Arkansas Bears Won vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 24-20
#7 Youngstown State Penguins Lost vs #2 North Dakota State Bison 24-27 (OT)
#8 South Dakota State Jackrabbits Lost vs Northern Iowa Panthers 18-38
#9 Sam Houston State Bearkats Won vs Northwestern State Demons 40-36
#10 Western Illinois Leathernecks Won vs Missouri State Bears 49-30
#11 Eastern Washington Eagles Won vs #32 Montana State Bobcats 31-19
#12 Villanova Wildcats Lost at #1 James Madison Dukes 8-30
#13 Elon Phoenix BYE
#14 Weber State Wildcats Lost vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds 16-32
#15 New Hampshire Wildcats Lost at #24 Stony Brook Seawolves 24-38
#16 (t) Illinois State Redbirds Lost at Southern Illinois Salukis 7-42
#16 (t) North Carolina A&T Aggies Won vs Florida A&M Rattlers 31-20
#18 Richmond Spiders Won vs Towson Tigers 23-3
#19 Samford Bulldogs BYE
#20 Western Carolina Catamounts Won vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers 49-10
#21 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Won at Portland State Vikings 42-20
#22 McNeese State Cowboys BYE
#23 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens Won vs William & Mary Tribe 17-0
#24 Stony Brook Seawolves Won vs #15 New Hampshire Wildcats 38-24
#25 Montana Grizzlies Won vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks 41-17
Next 15
#26 Albany Great Danes BYE
#27 Dartmouth Big Green Won at Sacred Heart Pioneers 29-26
#28 Grambling State Tigers BYE
#29 Monmouth Hawks BYE
#30 Nicholls State Colonels Won vs Abilene Christian Wildcats 29-20
#31 The Citadel Bulldogs Lost vs #5 Wofford Terriers 16-20
#32 Montana State Bobcats Lost at #11 Eastern Washington Eagles 19-31
#33 North Carolina Central Eagles Won vs Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs 24-17
#34 Furman Paladins Won vs Virginia Military Institute Keydets 42-10
#35 Tennessee State Tigers Lost vs Austin Peay Governors 17-21
#36 UC Davis Aggies BYE
#37 Columbia Lions Won vs Pennsylvania Quakers 34-31 (OT)
#38 Eastern Illinois Panthers Won at Murray State Racers 27-24 (2OT)
#39 Kennesaw State Owls Won vs Liberty Flames 42-28
#40 Maine Black Bears Won vs Rhode Island Rams 51-27
Others Receiving Votes (In Alphabetical Order)
Alcorn State Braves Won vs Prairie View A&M Panthers 34-21

A discussion on these matters is going on at this location if it interests you:
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197402-AGS-Top-25-How-They-Fared-Week-7-2017

Patriot League: Week 7 Preview

Fordham (1-5, 0-1) at Colgate (2-4, 0-1) – Oct. 14th 12 PM Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Colgate and Fordham both enter Saturday’s game off of extremely tough league losses that have the two teams playing catch up in title race as the leaves begin to fall. Colgate had 3 touchdowns called back in a rather controversial setback to Lehigh. Fordham had several chances late in the game against Lafayette but couldn’t capitalize in order to escape Easton with a win. The Raiders and Rams both entered the season with fairly high expectations. Many thought Fordham would be a playoff team in Edmonds senior season after narrowly missing the 24 team field last year. Colgate was the picked 3rd in the preseason and was expected to be led by a defense that returned a bunch of talent. As things have turned out, Edmonds has been hurt for much of the season and Colgate’s defense has been wildly inconsistent.

Fordham has had Colgate’s number (won 3 out of the last 4 meetings) in recent years thanks to their high-octane offenses giving the Raiders “D” fits. However, with an ailing Edmonds and Anderson the Rams will need to rely on their defense more than they’d like if they want to snap their current 4 game losing streak. The Fordham defense had its best outing of the season last week but it came against a Lafayette team that’s still searching for a rushing attack. Colgate has a hot QB in Breneman (PL Rookie of the Week in week 6, Offensive Player of the Week in week 5) and perhaps a healthy James Hollond Jr. at RB. If Hollond Jr. still can’t go (has missed the last 3 games) Alex Mathews has proven he can carry the load. The Ram’s defense that ranks 106th (211.8 ypg) against the run must play their best game of the year against the Raider read-option attack that is picking up steam as Breneman gets more comfortable. If Colgate can get their downhill rushing attack going it will be a long day for Fordham.

The Raiders defense has been feast or famine this year. They were torched by Furman and Lehigh but managed to contain Richmond’s high octane offense. Fordham is still loaded on offense at the skill positions but injuries (Anderson, Edmonds, Longi have all been battling through) and an offensive line that has been perplexingly poor has resulted in so-so output. Colgate certainly has the pass rushers, led by Afriyie, to give the Ram offensive line all kinds of problems.

This just seems like a terrible match-up for a wounded Fordham team.

Prediction: Colgate 41 Fordham 24

Lafayette (2-3, 2-0) at Harvard (2-2) – Oct. 14th 12 PM Harvard Stadium Cambridge, MA

Live Streaming – Ivy League Digital Network

Lafayette will look to use their recently found mojo to conquer one of their old nemesis’s from the Ivy League, Harvard. The Crimson have won their last 5 meetings (42-0 last year) against the Leopards and own an all-time 16-3 advantage in the series. All that historical “stuff” might not matter though given the current trajectory of each team. Lafayette heads to Cambridge sky high after posting back-2-back wins against Holy Cross and Fordham while Harvard returns home after suffering an embarrassing loss to Cornell. It was the first time the Crimson lost to the Big Red since 2005. Harvard’s offense sputtered against Cornell like it did in a season opening loss to Rhode Island. The Crimson are averaging 12 ppg in their two losses and 43 ppg in their two wins.

Lafayette has to feel good about their ever improving defense heading into this game. The competition within the Patriot League might not stack up nationally this year but that doesn’t mean holding Peter Pujals and Holy Cross to 7 points and Chase Edmonds and Fordham to 10 is anything to sneeze at. Harvard does not have any skill players on Edmonds or Pujals level; instead they attack by comity. Quarterback Joe Viviano has battled injuries to start the year and as a result his production (102 ypg 1 TD) has been way down. The two players the Leopard defense must key on are RB Charlie Booker and WR Justice Shelton-Mosely. Shelton-Mosely is also extremely dangerous as a returner on special teams.

If Lafayette wants to spoil the 700th game at historical Harvard Stadium they’ll have to score more than the 10 and 14 points they’ve put up the last two weeks. At this point in the season the running game, or lack there of (122nd 8.7 ypg), is basically a lost cause at this point. The Leopard offense will be as productive as quarterback Sean O’Malley and his talented wide receivers are. Unfortunately, being one dimensional doesn’t figure to be a recipe for success against a very stingy Harvard defense.

Prediction: Harvard 24 Lafayette 13

Georgetown (1-4, 0-0) at Lehigh (1-5, 1-0) – Oct. 14th 12:30 PM Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Lehigh will be seeking their 17th straight win over Georgetown and a 2-0 start in Patriot League play Saturday afternoon when the Mountain Hawks and Hoyas do battle. The Mountain Hawks dominance over a fellow league member is not unprecedented. Lehigh had a 15 game winning streak against Bucknell that stretched from 1998 through the 2012 season. During the Georgetown’s losing streak to Lehigh the Hoyas have been outscored by an average of 25 points per game. The largest point differential during the streak came in 2002 when Lehigh rolled to a 69-0 win. Lehigh enters the game off a thrilling 3 point win over rival Colgate while Georgetown lost 50-30 to Princeton their last time out.

If there’s one positive Georgetown can take away from their loss to Princeton that might help them against Lehigh is the ability to score points. The Hoyas entered last week’s game averaging less than 10 points a game but was able to put up 30 against Tigers (even if 20 came in garbage time). Since Lehigh has been giving up points at an extremely generous rate (121st in FCS 46.7 ppg) the Hoyas have a shot to do some damage. The question for Georgetown heading into the game is who will start under center. Sophomore Gunther Johnson (13-22 149 yards) showed some promise in relief of veteran backup Cole Norris against Princeton. If either QB gets some help from the anemic rushing attack (49.4 ypg, 120th in FCS) it will put added pressure on the much maligned Lehigh “D”. The Mountain Hawks rush defense ranks 119th in FCS (271 ypg) so something has to give on Saturday. Halfway through the season Lehigh’s defense now ranks dead last in the subdivision in yards allowed (533 ypg) by nearly 30 per game.

Lehigh’s banking on the ability to simply outscore the Hoyas. That line of thinking should work this week. Georgetown’s usually stout defense has fallen off considerably this season which is bad news with the Mountain Hawk’s high octane offense (33 ppg) up next. Brad Mayes, Dom Bragalone, Troy Pelletier and company should be in-line for another big week as Lehigh will comfortably head into their bye week 2-0 in Patriot League play.

Prediction: Lehigh 52 Georgetown 27

Holy Cross (2-4, 0-1) at Yale (3-1) – Oct. 14th 1 PM Yale Bowl New Haven, CT

Live Streaming – Ivy League Digital Network

Holy Cross’s once promising season is on the brink of full-on collapse as they head to the Nutmeg State to take on a very good Yale team. The Crusaders have lost 3 straight since their emphatic 51-26 win over New Hampshire in the middle of September. All three phases (offense, defense and special teams) have contributed to Holy Cross’s current losing streak. Coach Gilmore and his staff must get things cleaned up otherwise the Eli will pile onto the Crusader’s misery. Yale has dominated two Patriot League foes (56-28 vs Lehigh and 41-10 vs Fordham) this season and are more than capable of making Holy Cross the third. The Eli’s lone loss this season was a 1 point heartbreaker against Dartmouth last week. The Crusaders also suffered a painful setback to the Big Green this season. Surprisingly, this is the first meeting between Holy Cross and Yale since 2008. The Eli have dominated the all-time series 27-4.

The Holy Cross defense will have their hands full with an extremely explosive Yale offense (43 ppg, 3rd in FCS). Eli quarterback Kurt Rawls has been lighting it up (70% completion, 225 ypg, 9 TDs) so far this year. Making his life a little easier is the talented running back tandem of DeShawn Salter (94 ypg) and Zane Dudek (100ypg). The Crusader defense has seen pretty good overall this year (373 ypg, 23 ppg) but had its worst outing of the year last week against Monmouth. Yale’s offensive attack is far more diversified than Monmouth’s so Crusader defensive coordinator Mike Kashurba will need to have his guys prepared for the kitchen sink. Holy Cross linebackers (the strength of the defense) Nick McBeath and Ryan Brady will need to be at their best physically and mentally within the 4-3 “D” in order to slow down the Eli offense.

Peter Pujals will need another big time performance (school record 509 yards last week) if Holy Cross is to put the kibosh on their losing streak. Veteran wide receiver Richie DeNicola is expected to return from injury which could be a major boost for offense. In addition to getting a big game from Pujals, the Crusaders need the running back trio of Gabe Guild (40 ypg), Diquan Walker (41 ypg) and Miles Alexander (34 ypg) to rack up yards and eat up clock. It won’t be easy against a very good Yale front 7.

Unless the Holy Cross team that took the field the first 3 weeks shows up it figures to be a long afternoon at The Bowl against a Yale team that might not lose again the rest of the season.

Prediction: Yale 45 Holy Cross 31

Bucknell (2-3, 0-1) at Cornell (1-3) –Oct. 14th 1:30 PM Schoellkopf Field Ithaca, NY

Live Streaming – Ivy League Digital Network

Bucknell will try to even their record at .500 as they head to the Finger Lake region of New York to take on Cornell. The Bison are coming off their bye so they should be well rested and ready to go. One of the emphases for the Bucknell coaching staff during their extra week of prep is to get more consistent production out of the offense, especially the rushing attack. The Bison currently rank 115th in FCS in rushing with a paltry 65.4 ypg average which simply won’t cut if they want to challenge for the league title. Cornell is coming off a surprising 17-14 win over traditional Ivy League power Harvard. It was the Big Red’s first win over the Crimson since 2005.

If Bucknell wants to even their record at 3-3 they’ll need to find a way to have success against Cornell defense that has been playing lights out the last two weeks. The Big Red have yielded less than 300 total yards of offense to their last two opponents (Colgate & Harvard). They were especially stout against the run (62 yards allowed) last week against Harvard. Given the Bison’s ongoing issues on offense those aren’t the type of stats offensive coordinator Bobby Acosta wants to see. One positive for Bison offense is the performance of quarterback John Chiarolanzio (career high 204 yards passing) against Monmouth the last time out. While those numbers aren’t going to win Chiarolanzio any postseason awards, the ability to effectively throw the ball should help open up the running game. With Cornell playing great defense the last two weeks Bucknell can’t afford to be on dimensional.

Like Bucknell, Cornell has an average at best offense (8 TDs in 4 games) so this figures to be a low scoring slugfest. The one thing the Big Red potentially have going for it is an emerging rushing attack after posting 233 yards on the ground against Harvard. Chris Walker is the primary ball carrier (50 carries 183 yards) but Harold Coles has provided several explosive plays (9.7 ypc) when given the opportunity. Cornell quarterback Dalton Banks has been plagued but interceptions (10) so far this year so the passing attack as been a work in progress.

Cornell has dominated this series historically (43-13) but the Bison did win in their last visit to Ithaca in 2015. With the added week of rest and preparation the Bison make it two in a row against the Big Red at Schoellkopf.

Prediction: Bucknell 20 Cornell 13

MVFC – Week 7 Preview

MVFC LogoOn to Week 7…the midpoint of season. Everyone has played 5 games so far and has 6 left…all are MVFC games until the playoffs start.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings.

So, here are the games this week:
2:00 PM – #16(T) Illinois State (4-1, 2-0) at Southern Illinois (2-3, 0-2)
2:00 PM – Indiana State (0-5, 0-2) at #3 South Dakota (5-0, 2-0)
2:00 PM – Northern Iowa (2-3, 1-1) at #8 South Dakota State (4-1, 1-1)
3:00 PM – Missouri State (1-4, 0-2) at #10 Western Illinois (4-1, 1-1)
6:00 PM – #2 North Dakota State (5-0, 2-0) at #7 Youngstown State (3-2, 1-1)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

#16(T) Illinois State at Southern Illinois (Homecoming)

Last Week:

  • Illinois State lost at Northern Arizona, 37-16
  • Southern Illinois lost at South Dakota State, 49-14

History: The Redbirds and Salukis have played each other 79 times going back to 1929. SIU holds the series lead 40-36-3, but ILSU has won the last 7 meetings, including a 31-26 Redbird win at Carbondale last year.

Illinois State had been doing pretty well this season, going undefeated against a pretty easy schedule up until last week, when NAU’s offense burned the Redbirds for 37 points. Illinois State, in general, is pretty good at stopping the run, currently leading the FCS in run defense. They have had trouble giving up passing yards, with NAU’s Case Cookus throwing for 380 and 3 TDs against them last weekend. LB Tyree Horton leads the defense in tackles with 35, including 5 for loss (2 sacks) and a forced fumble + recovery. S Mitchell Brees has 2 INTS returned 35 yards, and 1 forced fumble and recovery. The offense goes heavy to the passing game, with WRs Spencer Schnell and Christian Gibbs getting the majority of catches, and both over 68 ypg receiving. QB Jake Kolbe is averaging 258 ypg and has 7 TDs so far, but also 5 INTs.

Southern Illinois has struggled this year, but to be fair, they’ve played a couple of tougher teams than ILSU has, with games against FBS Memphis, and playing UNI and SDSU so far this season (vs ILSU’s games against MSU and INSU and no FBS game), so they might be a bit better than the stats advertise at first glance. Defensively, they give up quite a few yards both through the air (251.6 ypg, 90th in FCS) and on the ground (153.4 ypg, 66th in FCS). S Ryan Neal leads the team in tackles with 45, plus an INT and a fumble recovery. S Jeremy Chinn has two INTs on the season as well as a forced fumble and (different game) fumble recovery. The Saluki offense is led by QB Sam Straub who’s thrown for 228 ypg, 13 TDs and 6 INTs this season. WR Darrell James and Connor Iwema both have 65-70 ypg and they have 5 and 2 TDs respectively. They’ve only got one RB that averages over 22 ypg, Daquan Isom who has 69.2 ypg and 1 TD. The SIU O-Line has allowed the fewest sacks of any FCS team so far this season, averaging 0.4 per game, and their Punter, Lane Reazin, is currently #2 in the FCS averaging 46.1 yards per punt.

Illinois State got hit with a somewhat unexpected loss last week and are wanting to get things back on track with this game, because after this point, they get a “murderer’s row” of matchups with 5 teams who are all currently ranked 14th or higher in the STATS FCS poll (10th or higher in the AGS poll). Unless ILSU’s defense buckles down and has a better game than last week, this could be a high scoring game on both sides. I think that Illinois State will win it, but SIU could be closer than most people probably would have estimated at the start of the season. Redbirds by 7.

Indiana State at #3 South Dakota

Last Week:

  • Indiana State lost to North Dakota State, 52-0
  • South Dakota defeated Youngstown State, 31-28

History: The Sycamores and Coyotes have played all of 3 times, starting in 2012, with USD holding the series lead 2-1.

Indiana State is, unfortunately for Sycamore fans, looking more and more deserving of their 10th place preseason conference ranking, having lost their first 5 games of the season. They’ve had a very tough start of the season, playing 3 teams that were ranked in the top 20 of the STATS FCS poll at the time (this weekend is #4) as well as a Top 25-ranked FBS team. On a couple of occasions, they’ve played well, but the two conference games haven’t been close. They are giving up 36.4 ppg while only putting up 16.2 ppg themselves so far and are 111th in the FCS in turnover margin, losing an average of 1.4 per game. They have two QBs (Cade Sparks and Isaac Harker) that have both played in most of the games, are both throwing at less than 47% completion rate and have as many or more INTs than they do TDs. The one bright spot on the Sycamore offense is WR Bob Pugh, who’s caught for 88 ypg and 2 TDs this year and handles put return duties, averaging 39 yards per return. INSU is 10th best in the FCS in not allowing penalties, so they don’t often beat themselves (not that they generally need to…other teams do that well enough already). LB Jonas Griffith leads the defense with 43 tackles, 5 for loss (2.5 sacks) and a fumble recovery.

South Dakota…a conference bottom-feeder for most years since they joined the MVFC in 2012 (9-31 in-conference in that time) is a bottom-feeder no more. They’re 5-0, have already beaten two of the higher-ranked MVFC teams as well as FBS Bowling Green, and are sitting in the top 5 of most FCS rankings. The USD offense is led by strong dual-threat QB Chris Streveler, who leads the team in passing yards (305.6 ypg…#1 in the MVFC), passing TDs (13…with 0 INTS), rushing yards (73.2 ypg), and rushing TDs (7). His primary passing target is WR Shamar Jackson, who has 90.6 ypg and 3 TDs. WRs Alonge Brooks and Brandt Van Roekel both have 3 receiving TDs as well. Combined, they have the #1 overall offense in the FCS in yards per game and #2 in the FCS for scoring. The Coyote defense isn’t quite as good as the offense, but they’re still pretty decent, giving up only 20.4 ppg and 338 ypg, and they’re very good at getting pressure behind the line, ranked #2 in the FCS in sacks. DBs Danny Rambo and Andrew Gray both have 30 or more tackles and DL Darin Greenfield has 24 tackles, 11.5 for loss with 5 sacks. Greenfield’s tackles for loss average of 2.3 per game is #1 in the FCS, and sack average of 1 per game is 7th in the FCS.

So, arguably one of the best teams in the FCS (won’t really know more until USD plays NDSU) at home against the worst team in the conference. This one could get ugly. I think USD wins by somewhere around 24 points. Probably could be worse, but USD will pull Streveler in the 3rd quarter.

Northern Iowa at #8 South Dakota State (Hobo Days/Homecoming)

Last Week:

  • Northern Iowa lost to Western Illinois, 38-29
  • South Dakota State beat Southern Illinois, 49-14

History: The Panthers have played the Jackrabbits 51 times starting back in 1935, with UNI holding the series lead 29-20-2. Last year’s matchup was a 45-24 SDSU victory.

Northern Iowa is coming off a tough loss to Western Illinois in a close game (much closer than the score would indicate). They’re putting up 368.6 ypg of total offense with 80% of that coming through the air. QB Eli Dunne is averaging just under 300 passing ypg with 15 TDs and 8 INTs. 90 ypg of that connects with WR Daurice Fountain, who also has 4 TDs. This despite their O-line allowing 3 sacks per game. The Panther defense has been uncharacteristically bad this season, allowing 405 ypg (101st in the FCS) and 31.8 ppg. They’re not getting much pressure on opposing QBs either, only getting an average of 1 sack per game. LB Jared Farley leads the team with 60 tackles, 3 for loss, 1 INT, and 1 fumble recovery. Also putting in a decent number of tackles is LB Duncan Ferch with 40 total, 2 for loss, and 1 INT.

South Dakota State meanwhile, got things back on track after a loss at Youngstown State with a dominating win over SIU. Like UNI, SDSU appears to be down a little from last year, although they do still have a dangerous offense that can put up big numbers at times. QB Taryn Christion leads an offense that puts up 443.6 ypg and 37.8 ppg, with Christion throwing for 213 ypg and running for 42 ypg. He has 12 passing TDs vs 2 INTs, and 3 rushing TDs. Preseason all-conference receivers Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Godert are both averaging between 50 and 60 ypg. Wieneke has 7 receiving TDs so far. Overall, the Jackrabbit defense is allowing 16.6 ppg, although like UNI, they don’t get a ton of pressure on QBs either, ranking 117th in the FCS in tackles for loss. LB Christian Rozeboom leads the team with 35 tackles, 2 for loss and CB Jordan Brown is right behind with 31 tackles, 2 for loss, and 1 INT.

Like I said, both teams appear to be down some from the last couple of years, although it looks like UNI is down a bit more (or maybe SDSU was just starting higher). I think it’ll be something of a back-and-forth game, but the Jackrabbits will pull ahead late for a 6 point victory at Hobo Days.

Missouri State at #10 Western Illinois (Family Day)

Last Week:

  • Missouri State lost at North Dakota State, 38-11
  • Western Illinois won at Northern Iowa, 38-29

History: The Leathernecks have played the Bears 34 times. Western holds the series lead, 17-16-1. Last year’s meeting was a 38-35 Western victory in Springfield, MO on 10/15/16 where Western came back with a TD in the final 45 seconds to earn the win.

Missouri State is 1-4 and sitting at the bottom of the conference standings at 0-2. Their only win this season was a 7-pt victory over Murray State. They are struggling with keeping teams close, giving up 502 ypg and just under 40 ppg to their opposition (31.75 ppg if you remove the statistical anomaly of their game against Missouri). LB McNeese Egbim leads the team with 29 total tackles, 2.5 for loss, 1 QB hurry, and a fumble recovery this season and S Jared Beshure has 3 INTs in 5 games and a season-high of 8 tackles against Illinois State. On offense, they’ve been having nearly as much trouble, averaging 12 ppg (again, removing the Mizzou game). WR Malik Earl leads the team with 72.2 receiving ypg and has 2 TD. Had 163 receiving yards and a TD against FBS Missouri. QB Peyton Huslig is throwing for 185.2 ypg and 4 TDs with 7 INTs. They can be somewhat dangerous on special teams though with WR/KS Deion Holliman who plays a little at WR, but primarily is their kick/punt return specialist. He is 6th in the FCS (1st in MVFC) in combined kick returns, averages 23.9 yards per kickoff return, 10.8 per punt return, has twice been recognized this season as MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week, and as of their game against NDSU, holds the MVFC record for career kickoff return yards.

Western Illinois is 4-1, with a close loss to South Dakota the only blemish on their record. The Leathernecks are putting up over 40 ppg and 463 ypg with a potent offense that revolves around QB Sean McGuire (272.4 ypg, 12 TDs w/ 3 INTs) throwing primarily to WR Jaelon Acklin (FCS-leading 148.4 ypg, 7 receiving & 2 rushing TDs). The Leatherneck defense still struggles against some stronger passing games, but to a lesser extent than last year and are allowing 22.2 ppg. LB Brett Taylor leads the FCS in total tackles with 14.2 per game, and Taylor, LB Quentin Moon, and DL Khalen Saunders all are in the top 50 in the FCS in tackles for loss (averaging 1.4 or more per game).

So, we’ve got one of the most prolific QB/WR combos in the FCS against one of the worst pass defenses. I feel like Western is going to put up a lot of yards through the air in this game, although they should also be able to run the ball fairly well when they need to. MSU might get a score or two from passing primarily, but Western should be able to shut down their running game, making the offense one-dimensional. I think Western will win this one by about 20.

#2 North Dakota State at #7 Youngstown State (Football Alumni Day)

Last Week:

  • North Dakota State beat Missouri State, 38-11
  • Youngstown State lost at South Dakota, 31-28

History: The Bison and Penguins have played each other 11 times, with NDSU holding the 7-4 series lead and having won the last 5 meetings. Last year’s matchup was a 24-3 Bison win at the Fargodome.

North Dakota State…#1 in the FCS in: Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, Total Defense, Time of Possession, Rushing Offense, Passing Yards Allowed, Turnover Margin, Interceptions Thrown. So…that’s a thing. RB Lance Dunn is running for 113 ypg and has 12 rushing TDs and #2 RB Bruce Anderson is putting up numbers that are better than most team’s #1 RB…just under 80 ypg and 3 rushing TDs. QB Easton Stick doesn’t put up huge numbers, but is effective when he does, currently holding a (2nd in the FCS) Passing Efficiency Rating of 193.1. LB Nick DeLuca is back and contributing after being out for most of the first half of the season with an injury, LBs Levi Jordheim and Jabril Cox each have over 20 tackles, and Safeties Tre Dempsey and Robbie Grimsley each have 3 INTs on the season.

Youngstown State is somewhat less “flashy” than NDSU (not that either team is really that “flashy”). Like NDSU, they get things done with a strong ground attack that’s putting up 268 ypg, starring RB Tevin McCaster who has 107 ypg and 8 rushing TDs. Like NDSU, the Penguins have a strong defense that is limiting opposition points, currently averaging 15 ppg allowed. Safeties Jalyn Powell and Kyle Hegedus and LB Lee Wright are all over 30 tackles this season, with Powell having a forced fumble and 4 pass breakups, and Hegedus with a fumble recover and an interception. DE Justus Reed has 4 sacks in their 5 games for 23 yards as well as a fumble recovery.

The Bison are undefeated on the season, although this game is what I’d consider their first “real” test so far. The Penguins have lost two, but those two games were at FBS Pitt and at currently #4 ranked South Dakota…so it’s not like they were playing cupcakes. The two teams kinda have “reverse” conference schedules, with NDSU playing mostly tough teams later in the conference season and YSU playing mostly tough teams earlier in the conference season. YSU’s defense seems like it’s built to be better against passing teams, and could struggle against strong running teams like NDSU (they also had trouble w/ USD’s Chris Streveler who used the run threat to open up the passing game). Actually, I’d say both teams are very similar, being very good at running the ball and against teams that run the ball a lot. I think it’ll be a close one, but NDSU should come out ahead by a (probably Lance Dunn rushing) TD. Bison by 7.