The FCS Wedge

The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket – Week 10

Here is a playoff bracket based on current standings off the AGS Top 25 Poll. Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both at larges and the seeds given the poll has been the most predictable at picking at larges and just this last week the AGS poll was in line exactly with the selection committee’s top 8. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess for automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines in the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together in the same format as the committee will use.

Link http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/fi…l_20170914.pdf

The Bracket

		2017 FCS PLAYOFFS


First Round	Second Round	Quarterfinal	Semifinal	Championship Game


	James Madison	1
Delaware				Frisco, TX
Duquesne

	Wofford	8
Furman
Southern Utah

	South Dakota St	5
South Dakota
Weber St

	North Dakota St	4
Stony Brook
Colgate


	Central Arkansas	3	AnyGivenSaturday.com
Northern Iowa
Illinois St

	Sam Houston State	6
Northern Arizona
San Diego

	Elon	7
Western Carolina
Western Illinois

	Jackonville St	2
Samford
Kennesaw State

The last four in (in order): Western Carolina, Northern Iowa, Delaware, Illinois St

The first four out (in order): Monmouth, Eastern Washington, McNeese St, Montana

Next four out (again, in order): New Hampshire, Nicholls St, Richmond, North Carolina Central

The seeds this week get a little bumped around with North Dakota St and South Dakota losing sending NDSU down to 4 and USD out of the seeded round. South Dakota St moves into the seeds at 5 flipping a popular bracket showing in Vermillion now in Brookings. Southern Utah is the first team out of the seeds and the highest ranked Big Sky team. It’s quite possible if they win out and someone ahead loses they may sneak into the seeded 8.

At larges, Monmouth was our first team out. Illinois State was the last team in. Given we are predicting Kennesaw St wins the Big South that would be quite the debate between the MVFC getting a 6th team in the bracket and a Big South squad that has won a lot of football games just not their conference. Also, North Carolina A&T would be well within the bracket, but as the MEAC projected winner and a celebration bowl participate they would not be in the bracket. If they lose finishing out the season they would probably be in the bracket erasing that ISU/Monmouth debate.

Also of note, both Southland squads McNeese St and Nicholls St look to finish the season with decent records. Both are out at the moment, but I’d expect quite the debate given both conference mates are seeded in the current bracket.

Conference Breakdown and First teams out

	Auto Bids	At larges
Big Sky	Southern Utah	Weber St
		Northern Ariz
Big South	Kennesaw St

CAA	James Madison	Elon
		Stony Brook
		Delaware

MVFC	North Dakota St	South Dakota St
		South Dakota
		Western Illinois
		Northern Iowa
		Illinois St

NEC	Duquesne

OVC	Jacksonville St

Patriot	Colgate

Pioneer	San Diego

Southern	Wofford	Furman
		Samford
		Western Carolina


Southland	Central Arkansas	Sam Houston St

First four out		Next four out
Monmouth		New Hampshire
Eastern Washington		Nicholls St
McNeese St		Richmond
Montana		North Carolina Central

This will obviously change next week with new results.

Patriot League: Week 10 Review an Power Rankings

Week 10 of the Patriot League season was highlighted by Lafayette and Lehigh keeping their title hopes alive and Chase Edmonds finally capturing the All-Time PL rushing record. Unfortunately for Edmonds, his Ram squad was dominated in the second half in a 42-20 loss to Holy Cross. Speaking of dominating, Lafayette’s defense did just that in their Royal Rumblesque 7-0 win over Georgetown. Meanwhile, Lehigh’s dumpster fire of a “D” played its best game of the year their Mountain Hawks 41-20 win over Bucknell.

Lehigh 42 Bucknell 21

Lehigh (3-6, 3-1) kept their Patriot League title hopes alive and ruined Bucknell’s (4-5, 1-3) Homecoming with a decisive 42-21 win on a picture perfect early November afternoon. It was the Mountain Hawk’s 18^th win in the last 20 meetings against the Bison. Lehigh was able to force two 1^st quarter turnovers (4 for the game) which propelled them to a commanding 28-7 lead after the opening 15 minutes of play. Outside of Freshnock (16 carries 174 yards 3 TDs) being the latest running back to shred the Lehigh defense, Bucknell struggled on both sides of the ball for much of the game. The 342 (198 rushing, 144 passing) yards of total offense Bucknell amassed were amazingly the fewest the Lehigh “D” surrendered all season. The Mountain Hawks did a really good job getting after Bison QB Matt Muh early and often. As a result of the improved pressure, Muh never found his rhythm which caused the senior to struggle (22-37 144 yards 2 INTs) in his first start since 2016.

Both teams punted on their opening possessions of game. On Bucknell’s second drive Lehigh LB Matt Walker delivered a hard hit on Muh at the Bison 34 yard line which caused a fumble. Walker then alertly picked the ball up and raced towards the end zone before being shoved out of bounds at the 9 yard line. Two plays later, Brad Mayes (17-25 193 yards 2 TDs 1 INT) found Gatlin Casey in the corner of the end zone for an 8 yard TD. It would not take long for Bucknell to respond. On Bison’s ensuing possession Chad Freshnock busted loose for an 85 yard TD run (5^th longest in BU history) to even the score with 8:49 left in the 1^st quarter. Lehigh would continue the scoring bonanza 16 seconds later when Central Pennsylvania native Dom Bragalone (21 carries 136 yards 3 TDs) broke free for a 44 yard TD. Bucknell’s Stefone Moore-Green would fumble the kickoff return which would be recovered by Lehigh’s Brian Olshanski. 4 plays later Bragalone added his second TD of the day to extend the Lehigh lead to 21-7. Back-up running back Micco Brisker’s 22 yard TD run at the 1:03 mark would close out the 1^st quarter scoring for Lehigh.

Freshnock’s 23 yard TD run and Bragalone’s 29 yard TD scamper would be the only scoring in the 2^nd quarter. When the first 30 minutes was over Lehigh owned a commanding 35-14 lead. The Mountain Hawks wouldn’t completely put the game away until late in the 3^rd quarter. That’s when Mayes’s hit Casey for a 47 yard TD on a deep post pattern to push the score to 42-14.

Up Next: Lehigh’s next hurdle in their attempt to repeat as league champs is Holy Cross at Goodman Stadium. Meanwhile, after two ugly losses Bucknell will try to get back to .500 against the downtrodden Georgetown Hoyas.

Holy Cross 42 Fordham 20

Holy Cross’s (4-6, 3-2) return trip to the Bronx was much more successful than last year’s embarrassment (54-14 loss) at Yankee Stadium. The pride of Worcester reclaimed the Crusader-Ram Cup with a 22 point win over Fordham (3-7, 2-3) by using a dominating rushing attack (354 yards). The defense also contributed in a big way. Nick McBeath’s scoop and score 61 yard TD on Fordham’s first possession helped set an early tone for the Crusaders. The lone bright spot for Fordham on the afternoon was Chase Edmonds return and his subsequent record breaking run. The once in a generation talent was finally able to reach the top of the All-Time Patriot League rushing rankings (Edmonds 5,677 passed Jordan Scott 5,621) after battling through an ankle injury for the majority of the season.

After falling behind 7-0 the Rams leaned on Edmonds (20 carries 63 yards 2 TDs) in the 1^st half to keep them in the game which he did. His two early 2^nd quarter touchdowns (10 yards, 7 yards) gave Fordham a 14-7 lead with 10:29 left before half. Unfortunately, the positive mojo wouldn’t last long as Anderson was knocked out of the game midway through 2^nd quarter and was replaced by Austin King (10-16 173 yards 1 TD 1 INT). The Rams would remain in the lead until Gabe Guild (10 carries 107 yards 1 TD) capped an 8 play 66 yard drive with a game tying 15 yard TD run with less than 3 minutes remaining in the first half.

Holy Cross’s offense would take control of the game in second half. The Crusaders opened the 3^rd quarter with a 7 play 76 yard TD (Miles Alexander 40 yard TD run) drive that gave them their first lead (21-14) of the day. The Crusaders extended their advantage to 28-14 on Peter Pujals’s (15-25 175 yards 2 TDs) 1 yard TD toss to Jayke Simsheuser with 3:35 remaining in the 3^rd quarter. Pujals’s 24 yard TD pass to Blaise Bell early in the 4^th quarter made the score 35-15 and effectively put the game out of reach.

Up Next: Holy Cross concludes their 2017 season with a trip to Bethlehem, PA to take on Lehigh. Fordham is on a late season bye before concluding their season against Bucknell on the 18^th.

Lafayette 7 Georgetown 0

Lafayette’s (3-6, 2-1) 7-0 win over Georgetown (1-8, 0-4) didn’t disappoint when it came to ugliness and offensive ineptness. Two of the very worst offenses in FCS put on a pillow fight that only the true die-hards could enjoy. Neither team surpassed 200 yards of total offense and each managed a mere 12 first downs during the 60 minutes of “action”. Hoya quarterback Gunther Johnson had an especially horrible outing (12-26 76 yards 4 INTs) in the loss. The Arizona transfer had shown quite a bit of potential when he took over for an injured Tim Barnes in early October but has been regressing in recent weeks. If Georgetown is to have any shot at avoiding the league O’fer, Johnson and the rest of the offense need to step-up and make plays. The coaches have to be willing to take some chances too. Sgarlatte and company made some extremely conservative, borderline suspect, calls against Lafayette in key situations. The Hoyas have literally nothing to lose at this point so it’s time to go for broke.

Lafayette still controls their destiny in the race for the Patriot League Title and auto-bid into the playoffs thanks to their defense (allowing 7.5 points in PL play). The unit notched Lafayette’s first shutout since 2007 and Georgetown did not reach Leopard territory until the 4^th quarter in the 7-0 win. The pass defense had been the strength of the unit all season and they were again against the Hoyas (76 yards passing, 4 INTs). The leader in the secondary is Phil Parham. The senior snatched his league leading 6^th interception against the Hoyas.

For as good as their defense has been in recent weeks the Leopards still have to score points. Sean O’Malley’s (17-25 101 yards 1 TD) 11 yard TD pass to Pearson with 4:31 left in the 2^nd quarter was good enough to beat the Hoyas won’t cut it against Colgate and Lehigh. If Lafayette wants to shock the league by winning their final two games O’Malley must lead the charge. The freshman has the weapons on the outside to be effective if the offensive line gives him time. The big uglies have to because the 9.5 ppg the Leopards have been averaging will result in a 0-2 finish to the season.

Up Next: Lafayette hosts Colgate in an elimination game for the Patriot League Title. Georgetown heads to Lewisburg, PA to take on Bucknell in what figures to be another low scoring slugfest.

Power Rankings

Colgate – The Raiders enjoyed a late season bye to prepare for a huge game against Lafayette. Assuming Colgate didn’t take a week long nap, the Leopards figure to be in big trouble.
Lehigh – The Mountain Hawks are here by default at this point. Their offense continues to rack up points while their defense makes opposing running backs look like Barry Sanders each week.
Holy Cross – Brian Rock’s club has now won two straight and can close out their season by ending Lehigh’s title hopes. Pujals’s last game in purple could be a special one.
Lafayette – The Leopards still sit on top of the league standings but with Colgate invading Easton this weekend that figures to change.
Fordham – That was terrible performance against Fordham. Losing Anderson was a major blow but the energy from the Lehigh win did not carry over one bit.
Bucknell – The offense is in disarray and the usually stout defense is giving up points in bunches. The Bison still have a shot at a winning record but it won’t be easy.
Georgetown – The 7-0 loss to Lafayette pretty much sums up Hoya football at this point. Close, yet so far away…..

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1107 – WEEK 10 REVIEW

This show is of course gonna lean heavily in the favor of the playoffs and how we see it AS OF THIS MOMENT and then a little talk about what could hold true for the very near future.

There is a really good playoff discussion to be had from two guys that really know what they are talking about. I wish we had those guys but Kris & Lance give us their take on it.

They also go over a few big games from last weekend that we all should know a little something about.

South Dakota State 33 North Dakota State 21

Northern Iowa 34 South Dakota 29

Western Illinois 31 Illinois State 14

Montana 17 NAU 15

Weber State 28 Eastern Washington 20

Kennesaw State 16 Montana State 14

Central Connecticut State 28 St Francis 21

*This is an EE show

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Big Sky Round Up Week 10

The top of the Big Sky standings got pretty shaken up this week with two top teams going down. This is the time of season where the conference haves and have-nots start to separate themselves into who is going to be playing in the post season.

The Big Sky week started off in Bozeman with the visiting Kennesaw State Owls making the nearly cross country road trip to take on the Bobcats. Kennesaw State, a third year program from Georgia and ranked in the FCS top 25, presented a few new wrinkles for the Bobcats. The Owls, who run a triple option style offense, started the game with an eight and a half minute drive and ended with a touchdown. The Owls piled up 346 yards rushing and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in a two point victory. Montana State got a touchdown from Chris Murray on the ground, and a touchdown pass to Mitchell Herbert for their only scores. After Kennesaw’s opening touchdown they’d ride three field goals from Justin Thompson to victory. The Bobcats will face off with Northern Arizona in Flagstaff next week.

Weber State, fresh off of a win over Montana took a trip to the Palouse to take on Eastern Washington. The Eagles, who are clinging to their playoff hopes, needed a win over Weber State to keep them alive. The Wildcats, on the other hand, had other thoughts in mind. Treshawn Garrett had a pair of touchdowns from Stefan Cantwell to get the Wildcats going. In all Cantwell had three touchdown passes and 230 yards to lead the Wildcats. Post-game, it was announced that Eastern Washington quarterback Gage Gabrud will miss next week’s game due to a violation of team rules. Weber State gets a win to remain at the top of the Big Sky standings. Weber State will head to Portland to take on Portland State. Eastern Washington will make the trip to Grand Forks to take on North Dakota.

UC-Davis is looking to turn in one of their best seasons since joining the Big Sky and looked to keep that going with a game at Idaho State. The Bengals, also having a good year by Bengal standards needed to slow down the Aggie offense to have any chance in this one. That chance quickly disappeared when Jake Maier got the ball in his hands and led three scoring drives in the first quarter, the Aggies quickly up 21-0. The Bengals would get on the board early in the second quarter, however, that didn’t really matter because UC-Davis didn’t look back. Maier piled up 358 yards and three scores, while Justin Williams had two rushing scores for the Aggies. UC-Davis will host Southern Utah, while Idaho State will have a bye.

Southern Utah kept making their case for the Big Sky’s autobid later this month by dismantling North Dakota in Cedar City this weekend. Patrick Tyler had a nice game for the Thunderbirds, throwing for 310 yards and two scores. Jay Green had 62 yards and three scores on the ground. North Dakota never made this game interesting. John Santiago turned in a 115 yard effort for the Fighting Hawks, with a score but wasn’t enough to help the Hawks effort. Southern Utah will travel to UC-Davis to take on the potent Aggies offense, while North Dakota will host Eastern Washington.

Sacramento State seems to have found their scoring groove. This week they got to put their offense to the test against Northern Colorado. The Bears have been reeling for a lot of the season, but even moreso since starting quarterback Jacob Knipp got injured. Hornet quarterback Roman Ale had a pair of touchdown passes. However, the Hornets rode a 333 yard rushing effort from their trio of backs to put their foot down on the Bears. Elijah Dotson had 124 yards and two scores to lead all rushers. The Hornets were also aided by three Northern Colorado turnovers. Sacramento State will head to Cal Poly to take on the Mustangs, while Northern Colorado will be at Montana.

Montana was smarting after a loss at Weber State last week, and this week didn’t get any easier as they took on the Big Sky’s sole unbeaten team in conference play, Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks had a rough start to the game as starting quarterback Case Cookus was ejected early in the first quarter for a targeting call on a play he was blocking for a receiver. From there Stone Smartt came in and did his best with what he was given. He was given a defense anxious to hit him early and often, recording seven sacks. On the other hand, Montana starting quarterback Gresch Jensen was ruled out with a concussion. This led to Montana starting fourth string quarterback Makena Simis. Simis rushed for 101 yards, and with the help of a special teams touchdown from Jerry Louis-McGee Montana defeated Northern Arizona. The Griz will host Northern Colorado, while the Lumberjacks will host Montana State.

In the final game of the week, and the Big Sky Pillow Fight of the Week, Portland State took their trip down the coast and took on Cal Poly. In a game that didn’t feature a whole lot of defense both teams got to showcase their offenses. Davis Alexander recorded 409 passing yards with a touchdown and interception. Cal Poly rushed for 400 yards and five touchdowns to return the favor. Running back Jared Mohamed had 194 yards and two scores for the Mustangs. The teams combined for 50 first downs, however! Portland State will host Weber State, Cal Poly will host Sacramento State.

Scores

Northern Arizona 15
Montana 17

Kennesaw State 16
Montana State 14

Weber State 28
Eastern Washington 20

UC Davis 56
Idaho State 17

North Dakota 21
Southern Utah 47

Northern Colorado 21
Sacramento State 50

Portland State 28
Cal Poly 35

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky Player of the Week is Weber State quarterback Stefan Cantwell. Cantwell was 21/31 for 230 yards and three touchdowns as the Wildcats defeated Eastern Washington in Cheney this weekend. Cantwell also added 66 yards rushing on 12 carries.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington – 22/42 for 239 yards, 1 TD 1 INT
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 3 receptions, 16 yards
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 11 receptions, 112 yards
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – No stats recorded
Tanner Gueller, QB, Idaho State – 13/21 for 183 yards

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Weber State
3. Montana
4. Eastern Washington
5. Northern Arizona
6. UC-Davis
7. Sacramento State
8. Montana State
9. Idaho State
10. Northern Colorado
11. North Dakota
12. Cal Poly
13. Portland State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Interesting to see a quarterback get tossed for targeting.. might never see it again, but it sure was fun to see in person.

Kennesaw State runs a pretty good triple option. Not a bad team for a third year program from Georgia playing in the snow and cold in Bozeman.

We’ll see what Eastern Washington is made of this weekend. They have a gimme game against North Dakota, however, they’ll be without two players who were involved with police in Cheney on Saturday night. Gage Gabrud will not be playing and his backup will be there in relief. We’ll see how that goes.

Looking at the playoffs there are still five teams from the Big Sky looking for a spot. Southern Utah, Weber State, Montana, Northern Arizona, and Eastern Washington should all have a shot, however, only three or maybe four are getting in. Unless there are upsets this weekend, there’s no reason to think that anything will be really decided this weekend.

Congrats to Cal Poly on their win in the pillow fight against Portland State. True incompetence can’t always be measured easily, however in Portland, it may be measured by not winning any games.

My picks this week are Montana, Eastern Washington, Weber State, UC-Davis, Northern Arizona, and Sacramento State.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 10 Results

As we come down the stretch of the regular season things are starting to shake themselves out in the top 25. There wasn’t an inordinate amount of upsets this week but those that happened sufficiently shook up the rankings from top to bottom. Despite all the volatility this year the #1 team remained the same as it has been all year in James Madison. Jacksonville State and Central Arkansas moved up to #2 and #3, respectively, behind them as North Dakota State fell to #4 following their loss to South Dakota State who moved up 4 spots to round out the top 5 at #5.

Other than SDSU the other big risers on the week were Weber State who moved up 5 spots to #12 following their win over EWU and Northern Iowa who also rose 5 spots to #19 following a big home win against South Dakota. Montana was the only new team in the top 25 this week rising up 6 spots to #25 after their upset home win against Northern Arizona.

On the flip side South Dakota dropped 5 spots to #10 and Northern Arizona dropped 6 spots to #16 after their aforementioned losses to UNI and Montana. Illinois State and Eastern Washington took the biggest tumbles of the week dropping 8 spots each to #21 and #23, respectively, after their losses to WIU and Weber State. Villanova dropped out of the top 25 after falling in their 3rd straight game.

In terms of conference representation the MVFC led the way again placing 6 teams into the top 25. There were followed by the Big Sky with 5, the CAA and SOCON with 4 each, and the Southland with 3 teams in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank	Team	Total Points	First Place Votes
1	James Madison Dukes	1875	75
2	Jacksonville State Gamecocks	1717
3	Central Arkansas Bears	1707
4	North Dakota State Bison	1656
5	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	1526
6	Sam Houston State Bearkats	1469
7	Elon Phoenix	1437
8	Wofford Terriers	1326
9	Southern Utah Thunderbirds	1224
10	South Dakota Coyotes	1200
11	Stony Brook Seawolves	1038
12	Weber State Wildcats	990
13	Western Illinois Leathernecks	922
14	North Carolina A&T Aggies	903
15	Furman Paladins	705
16	Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	671
17	Samford Bulldogs	528
18	Western Carolina Catamounts	517
19	Northern Iowa Panthers	504
20	Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens	473
21	Illinois State Redbirds	444
22	Monmouth Hawks	326
23	Eastern Washington Eagles	210
24	McNeese State Cowboys	208
25	Montana Grizzlies	178
ORV:
26	Kennessaw State Owls	153
27	New Hampshire Wildcats	133
28	Nicholls State Colonels	125
29	Grambling State Tigers	88
30	Richmond Spiders	80
31	Yale Bulldogs	19
32	North Carolina Central Eagles	10
33T	Colgate Raiders	4
33T	Villanova Wildcats	4
35	Austin Peay Governors	3
36	Sacramento State Hornets	2

Most Significant Win: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Most Significant Loss: South Dakota Coyotes

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?198527-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-10-11-06-2017

SOCON Week 10 Review

ETSU 24 VMI 6

In perhaps the only conference game of the season ETSU was favored to win, they did so with ease against VMI. Mistakes plagued the Keydets all day as they threw two interceptions, including a pick a six. The Keydets were held to less than 200 yards of offense and less than 2 yards per rush against an ETSU team that had struggled all year to stop the run. ETSU QB Austin Herink only needed to throw 15 passes on the day, completing 8 of them. ETSU ran the ball 50 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns. Though ETSU racked up yardage against the Keydet defense, they only had 2 3-or-4 and outs on the day. They fumbled the ball once and turned the ball over on downs twice, including on their final possession inside VMI’s 5 yard line. A fourth-quarter score gave the Bucs a 24-6 lead, effectively putting the game away with 10 minutes remaining. ETSU dominated time of possession by a margin of 34:57 to 25:03.

As “close” as this game was, it doesn’t do proper justice to the amount ETSU has improved from this year to last or how far VMI has fallen from their 3-8 mark last year. Last year in Lexington, VMI blew out ETSU by a score of 37-7. A 45 point swing from one year to the next is impressive in any context, but the reality is that ETSU took it easy on VMI. This year in games where ETSU scored a comparable amount to this game, Quarterback Austin Herink and the pass game had to throw the ball 27+ times to stay competitive because other teams sufficiently shut down the ETSU run game. Herink’s 15 passes thrown is a season-low for the junior QB and the fact they called a run play 77% of the game when the Bucs have the second best passing game in the conference speaks to the approach Coach Carl Torbush wants to build in the near future. ETSU still isn’t where it needs to be in the trenches, averaging less than 3 yards per carry against VMI, a team that’s given up 4.5 yards per carry and over 200 yards per game this season. Having said that, if you’re an ETSU fan you have to feel content with this game because they controlled it and it would have been much worse had Torbush unleashed the ETSU pass game against the second-to-last VMI pass defense. Next week ETSU plays a Samford team with a strong defense and a veteran QB looking for revenge after the Bucs beat upset Samford in the last game of last season.

For the 0-10 Keydets, this game continues a frustrating trend as VMI hasn’t scored 20 points on any team in division one this year. In conference play, their offense has only broken 10 points once (VMI scored 14 against Mercer, but one of those touchdowns was a pick 6). Meanwhile, their defense has allowed every opponent to score 20 points or more on them this season. Luckily for the Keydets, next week they play Wofford at home on Veterans’ Day. They have nothing to lose. Though Wofford may be 8-1, they’ve won 8 of their games by a touchdown or less. Last year in Spartanburg, after three quarters VMI only trailed by three points. Though VMI has looked bad this season, an upset next week is possible. Under similar circumstances in 2002, VMI beat a Wofford team competing for playoff positioning and a conference championship. The loss infamously kept Wofford out of the playoffs and the keydets will be looking to repeat on Saturday.

Samford 20 Mercer 3

Samford bounced back from their upset loss to Chattanooga last week with a nice 20-3 win over Mercer in Macon. The Samford defense outscored the Mercer offense 4-3, recording two safeties on the day. The Bulldogs were still afflicted by the turnover bug, fumbling 3 times and throwing an interception. For the first time in a while, a Samford victory can be attributed squarely on the defense, holding Mercer to below 200 yards on the day. The Bulldog offense turned the ball over twice inside the Mercer 20 and fumbled a punt return at mid-field. Though Samford recorded 467 yards of offense, including 369 yards on the field and 7 of 15 on third downs, turnovers could have made this game more competitive; luckily the Bulldog defense rallied. The Mercer offense was downright anemic coming out of the bye week, rushing for a season low 33 yards on 26 carries. Redshirt Freshman Quarterback Kaelen Riley had shown improvement all year, but completed less than 50% of his passes (18 of 38), throwing no touchdowns and an interception. On one play inside their own redzone, the Bears managed to snap the ball before the recipient was ready and that resulted in a safety. The Samford pass rushed harassed Riley all day, resulting in 3 sacks. The Bears converted a measly 4 of 16 third down conversions and by far had their worst game of the season.

For the Bears, there’s only pride to play for this season. Sitting at 4-5, they will miss the playoffs. Next week they travel to Cullowhee, North Carolina to play Western Carolina and then another road trip to play Alabama. Under normal circumstances, the best bet would be that the game next week would be competitive, but it looks like this Mercer team is broken. Though Mercer isn’t known for winning close games, they are known for playing everyone competitively, especially at home. They didn’t look that way this week. If they continue on this path they could finish the year at a poor 4-7 that doesn’t reflect the talent and potential of this team.

For Samford, they are already playing their playoffs. With a strong field in the FCS this year, it’s unlikely that 7-4 with 6 D1 wins and a bad loss to Chattanooga will make the playoffs for Samford, but an 8-3 record would probably be a lock. The Bulldogs are 6-3 and need to keep winning to make the playoffs. They play ETSU and Furman at home over the next two weeks, and neither will be a gimme. If the defense maintains the rate they get teams off the field, they may well earn the title of the best defense in the Socon. To be in a position to win, however, they have to cut down on the turnovers, averaging 5 per game over the last two games. Next week against ETSU is no gimme either, as the Bucs beat Samford in Johnson City last year. The Bucs are a better team this year than last so Samford will be challenged.

Western Carolina 31 The Citadel 19

Reports of Tyrie Adams’s demise were greatly exaggerated as Western Carolina earned a solid win against the Citadel on the road in Charleston. Returning from an ankle injury suffered last week against Furman, Adams resumed the helm, completed 14 of 21 passing for 133 yards, three touchdowns and rushed for 50 yards on 7 carries against the stout Citadel defense. Detrez Newsome had another phenomenal game, rushing for 197 yards on 24 carries. The Bulldogs outgained the Catamounts 420 to 386, including outgained them on the ground 367 to 253, but 5 turnovers ultimately cost them the game. Senior QB Dominique Allen threw 3 interceptions on only 8 passes and the Citadel could not overcome. When the Citadel failed to convert on fourth down inside Western Carolina territory, the Catamounts put the game on ice with a 71 yard touchdown drive with 6:14 remaining.

With the loss, the Citadel is completely eliminated from playoff consideration. In the end, offensive execution may be the difference between this year’s team being a forgettable 5-6 or 6-5 and competing for a socon championship and playoff consideration. After coming out of the gates stomping Newberry, PC and ETSU, their offense has failed to score more than 21 points in six straight Socon games. Though the Bulldog defense is solid on the year, still #1 in total defense as of this writing, it could not overcome the holes the offense dug them into this year. Next week they play Furman in a game that promises to be competitive as it is a rivalry game. The Citadel is playing for a winning season as they will likely lose to Clemson in two weeks. Furman will continue to play for a playoff spot, and they appear to have the advantage, coming off a bye in what will likely be an emotional senior day for a young team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2013.

Western Carolina added to their playoff resume, likely punching their ticket. For the first time in a while, the Catamounts have 7 division one wins through 10 games this year. Next week they play an ailing Mercer team at home in what may be Detrez Newsome’s final home game as a Catamount. The Catamounts still haven’t solved their run defense problems as the Citadel ran for over 300 yards against them. To complicate their game against Mercer next week, the Bears still have one of the best defenses in the Socon and points may be difficult. For the Catamounts the thinking is simple: win and they are in the FCS playoffs for the first time in a long time.

Wofford 24 Chattanooga 21 (2 OT)

Once again, Wofford won a game by a touchdown or less. If you’re keeping score on at home, the Terriers are 8-1, but with 8 games coming down to the wire in the fourth quarter or overtime (the Terriers are 2-0 in OT this year). This time, they faced a resurgent Chattanooga Moc team that was looking to win against a top 10 team on the road for a second straight week. For most of the game it was a defensive struggle as the Chattanooga defense limited Wofford to two first downs in the first half and dominated time of possession by about 9 minutes in the first half. The Mocs were able to maintain two first-half drives for over 8 minutes but failed to reach the endzone in either. Had it not been for a fumble on a freak tackle by Wofford cornerback Devon Watson, the Mocs may well have led at the half 6-0. Three plays later, the Terriers scored to take the lead into the half 7-6. In the second half, the Terriers were much more successful moving the ball, but were only able to get one touchdown. A tipped punt put Chattanooga inside Wofford’s territory with less than 2 minutes left. Freshman QB Cole Copeland threw a touchdown with 16 seconds left and caught the two point conversion on a trick play. The teams exchanged touchdowns in Overtime, and in the second overtime Copeland threw an interception. The stout Chattanooga defense forced Wofford to settle for a field goal, where Luke Carter won the game from 34 yards out.

This year has been a struggle for the Chattanooga Mocs, but there’s many reasons to be optimistic going into 2018. They’ve had offensive line problems all year, failing to rush for 50 yards in many games, but in the last three games Coach Arth has made the adjustments needed to win games, rushing for 99 yards or more in three straight games. Cole Copeland isn’t quite where he needs to be to be a great QB, but there were sparks of improvement in this game, as he completed 27 of 39 passes. The gameplan going into this game was perfectly executed for the Mocs, as they were able to milk clock and lean on their (currently ranked third) defense to put them in a position to win. The Mocs have a bye this week, then they play intrastate rival ETSU for pride. If Copeland and the offensive line can continue their improvement while the defense plays solid, they may be favored to win.

For Wofford, the only thing relieving the sting of winning ugly so much is sitting pretty at 6-1 in the Socon and 8-1 overall. For one reason or another, Wofford can’t make the play that puts the game on ice with 5 minutes left, but the Terriers find a play to put it on ice with 5 second left, The Terriers just need to win against VMI this week in Lexington, VA and they’ll win at least a share of the Southern Conference title and the out-right automatic bid to the FCS playoffs. The Terriers can’t afford to look ahead or treat this game as given, because quite frankly no game this year has been a given. History shows here are plenty of reasons to think VMI will give the Terriers everything they want and more (see the final paragraph of VMI-ETSU above). At this point, there’s a 99% chance the Terriers are in the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of next week. Mike Ayers remembers 2002 and I’m certain he’ll have his team prepared.

MVFC – Week 10 in Review

Bum…bum…bum…another one bites the dust. Another Saturday of MVFC football is in the books and another team is effectively eliminated from playoff contention.

Let’s take a look at conference standings, where teams are in relation to being set up for a playoff spot or if they’re already out of the picture.

School	Overall	Conference	Remaining Games
North Dakota State	8-1	5-1	USD, @ILSU
South Dakota	7-2	4-2	@NDSU, SDSU
South Dakota State	7-2	4-2	ILSU, @USD
Illinois State	6-3	4-2	@SDSU, NDSU
Northern Iowa	5-4	4-2	@MSU, INSU
Western Illinois	6-3	3-3	@INSU, SIU
Southern Illinois	4-5	2-4	YSU, @WIU
Youngstown State	4-5	2-4	@SIU, MSU
Missouri State	3-6	2-4	UNI, @YSU
Indiana State	0-9	0-6	WIU, @UNI

For reference, in recent history, I believe only one 8-DI-win MVFC team has been excluded from the playoffs (YSU in 2013, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season, but was tied with 3 other MVFC teams at 5-3 in the conference and was coming off of 3-straight losses). In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.

NDSU, USD, and SDSU have all reached 7 wins (NDSU has 8), which means that barring some complete collapse to finish the season, all three teams are in the playoffs.

ILSU and WIU are sitting at 6-3 and need one more win to be likely in the playoffs. WIU is going to have a much easier job of getting there, with games at INSU and back home against SIU on the docket. ILSU on the other hand, heads to SDSU and back home against NDSU…so that’s not an easy stretch.

UNI did what they needed to do to stay in the hunt with a win and are 5-4 now. Their remaining games should be significantly easier, but you never can tell in the MVFC.

SIU and YSU are now 4-5, so either could potentially reach 6-5, but at this point, it doesn’t look like a 6-5 team will be making the playoffs, so they’re likely out.

MSU is 3-6 and the best they can get to now is 5-6; INSU is 0-9 and can only get to 2-9. Both teams are out of playoff consideration, but could still play spoiler to a few teams that are still in the playoff hunt.

#16 Western Illinois at #13 Illinois State

Keepin’ it ðŸ’¯

No. 18 WIU rallies in the second half to defeat No. 13 Illinois State, 31-14, in the 100th meeting in the rivalry #FCS pic.twitter.com/XDGzTse9yZ

— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) November 4, 2017

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
WIU	0	0	17	14	31
ILSU	7	7	0	0	14

Quick Hits:

WIU – R-Fr. RB Clint Ratkovich ran for 11 yards and 1 TD, had 3 catches for 44 yards and a TD, and returned a kickoff 21 yards
WIU – RB Steve McShane ran for 67 yards and 1 TD and had 4 catches for 22 yards
WIU – LB Brett Taylor actually didn’t lead the team in tackles (he had 7), but DBs Aaron Diggs, Mike Viti, and Justin Fitzpatrick all had 8 tackles each, with Diggs getting an INT in the end zone and returning it 33 yards.
ILSU – WR Christian Gibbs had 113 yards and 1 TD receiving
ILSU – LB Tyree Horton led the Redbirds with 9 tackles, 1 for loss, and had a QB hurry
ILSU – DB DraShane Glass had 2 tackles and his second INT of the season

This was a tale of two halves. The first half was all Illinois State, with the Redbirds grinding out a TD in each of the first two quarters to take a 14-0 lead into halftime. The Leathernecks, though, came roaring back with 17 points in the 3rd to take their first lead of the game. Then, early in the 4th, with WIU up by only 3 points, ILSU attempted a fake punt from within their own 30 that was sniffed out and forced a turnover on downs, giving the Leathernecks great field position and essentially ending their hopes of a comeback. They would score on the next play and continue with another TD later in the 4th, all while holding the Redbirds scoreless in the entire second half to come away with the 31-14 victory.

I wanted to make a point of thanking the very friendly Redbird fans whom I met at the game for a bit of pregame tailgate action and the one who gifted me two tickets so that I was able to attend the game with my Illinois State Alum mother (although she’s a die-hard Western fan now…worked at WIU for years and had two kids go to Western). We had a great day.

Western Illinois moves to 6-3 overall, 3-3 in the MVFC and will travel to Terre Haute to take on the 0-9 Indiana State Sycamores next weekend.
Illinois State drops to 6-3 overall and 4-2 in conference and heads up to Brookings to take on 7-2 South Dakota State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 6
It was: Leathernecks by 17
I knew my Leathernecks had it in them to come back and make it a close game…I did not expect the utter second half domination. Still, got the pick right.

Youngstown State at Indiana State (0-8, 0-5 MVFC)

Nice road win today! Penguins finish with 638 yards of total offense. Defense shuts out Indiana State in second half. pic.twitter.com/6bfWEA0ITF

— YSU Football ðŸ§ (@YoungstownStFB) November 4, 2017

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
YSU	28	10	14	14	66
INSU	7	17	0	0	24

Quick Hits:

YSU – QB (technically listed as WR) Ricky Davis throws for 349 yards and 4 TDs while running for 98 yards and 2 more TDs and is awarded the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week award.
YSU – RB Joe Alessi ran for 86 yards and 2 TDs
YSU – WRs Damoun Patterson and Samuel St. Surin each caught for 125+ yards and St. Surin had 2 TDs
YSU – LBs Lee Wright and Armand Dellovade led the team with 8 tackles each
INSU – QB Cade Sparks threw for 224 yards and 1 TD with 2 INTS
INSU – RB LeMonte Booker ran for 167 yards and 1 TD
INSU – TE Jacquet McClendon caught 6 passes for 101 yards and 1 TD
INSU – S Brento Lockett led the team with 14 tackles

YSU blew open a 28 point lead before INSU was able to put their first points on the board at the end of the 1st quarter. The Sycamores actually outscored the Penguins in the 2nd quarter, putting up 17 points to YSU’s 10 to head into halftime down 38-24. The second half, though, was all Youngstown, with Indiana State getting shut out and the Penguins tallying 14 points each quarter.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Penguins by 14
It was: Penguins by 42

Um…well…YSU winning wasn’t really a surprise, but 66 points is the 3rd most points the Penguins have put up in a game in their history and the most they’ve ever scored in a MVFC game. With them having to play their #3 QB, I don’t think anyone saw that coming.

Missouri State at Southern Illinois

BEARS WIN! MSU takes down Southern Illinois, 36-28, to improve to 3-6 on the season. The Bears return to Plaster Stadium next Saturday for Senior Day against UNI. pic.twitter.com/HAMMYGi1es

— MO STATE Football (@MOStateFootball) November 4, 2017

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
MSU	24	3	0	9	36
SIU	7	7	7	7	28

Quick Hits:

MSU – QB Peyton Huslig threw for 265 yards, 2 TDs and had 0 INTs, and he ran for 20 yards
MSU – TB Jason Randall ran for 139 yards and 1 TD
MSU – RS Matt Rush returned 4 kickoffs a total of 134 yards including a 72-yard return and earned the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award
MSU – CB Darius Joseph had 12 tackles, 1 interception and 2 pass breakups
SIU – QB Tanner Hearn had 180 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT
SIU – WR DJ Davis caught for 130 yards and 1 TD and ran for another 40 yards. He also returned 4 kickoffs for a total of 55 yards (225 all-purpose yards)
SIU – LBs Cody Crider, Airan Reed, and Kyron Watson all had 9 tackles, with Watson picking up a sack and a QB hurry

Despite SIU scoring first, MSU exploded in the first quarter putting up 24 points and would take a 27-14 lead into halftime. The Salukis, playing without injured starting QB Sam Straub, would climb back into the game eventually taking a 1-point lead early in the 4th quarter. The Bears were able to get another TD (2-point conversion failed) and a FG to come away with the 8-point win, 36-28.

Missouri State picks up their third win of the season, moving to 3-6 overall, 2-4 in the MVFC and will bring in 5-4 Northern Iowa next Saturday.
Southern Illinois see their slim playoff hopes evaporate with the loss. They fall to 4-5 with a 2-4 conference record and welcome 4-5 Youngstown State to Carbondale in a week.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bears by 10
It was: Bears by 8

Even though SIU was favored by a decent amount, I think anyone who took a solid look at SIU’s strengths (and the fact that he is out for the season with an injury) and weaknesses (defense) and compared them to MSU’s strengths (offense) and weaknesses (also defense) would realize that this could very easily be an upset that the Bears could fulfill…and they did. I got the pick right and was really close on the score. Actually, if they’d gotten that 2-point conversion, I would have been dead-on.

#5 South Dakota at #24 Northern Iowa

DOME-INATION!

UNI feeds off the home crowd and dominates the 2nd half against No. 6 S. Dakota to defeat its third top-10 foe this year #FCS pic.twitter.com/JEoOxrd1uR

— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) November 4, 2017

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
USD	7	9	7	6	29
UNI	3	10	7	14	34

Quick Hits:

UNI – DB Keelon Brookins had an INT returned 29 yards for a TD in addition to 6 tackles, 1/2 tackle for loss, and 2 pass breakups, and for his performance, was awarded both the MVFC Defensive Player and Newcomer of the Week awards
UNI – DB Xavior Williams also had an INT that he took back 23 yards in addition to 6 tackles, and 3 kickoff returns for 72 yards
UNI – Freshman WR Isaiah Weston had 3 catches for 62 yards with 2 TDs
UNI – Panther defense forced a total of 4 turnovers (2 INTs & 2 fumble recoveries) and held the USD offense under 100 rushing yards for the first time all season
USD – QB Chris Streveler passed for 401 yards and 2 TDs, but also had 2 INTs and ran for a net -1 yard (his lowest of the season)
USD – PK Ryan Weese had 3 FGs from 32, 24, and 33 yards out
USD – Freshman DL Nathan Schultz picked up 3 tackles for loss including 2 sacks (out of 6 total tackles) and a QB hurry
USD – WR Josh Hale caught 6 passes for 151 yards and 1 TD

South Dakota took the early lead and outside of allowing the Panthers to tie the game at one point in the 2nd quarter, held on to the lead all the way until the last few minutes of the game, when UNI would completely turn things around, forcing a fumble at the USD 32 that was taken down to the 11…two plays later…UNI TD to grab their first lead of the game. 3 plays into the next drive, USD QB Chris Streveler would throw a pick-6 to put UNI ahead by 11. They would end up getting a TD and going for two (unsuccessful), but would fail on the on-side kick attempt after which UNI was able to down it to run out the clock for the win.

South Dakota suffers their 2nd loss of the season, dropping to 7-2, 4-2 in the MVFC, and will have a very tough matchup with an angry 8-1 NDSU Bison team next weekend at the Fargodome.
Northern Iowa keeps their playoff hopes alive by winning what will likely be the toughest game of their last few and move to 5-4 overall, 4-2 in-conference, and will head down to Springfield, MO to battle the 3-6 Missouri State Bears.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Panthers by 3
It was: Panthers by 5
Again, but for a couple of points, I would have nailed this one. UNI is just playing inspired football right now and the one-man offensive machine of Chris Streveler has been showing signs of weakness (or more specifically, the grind of conference play finally wearing on him, because you can’t deny that he is a really tough SOB).

#2 North Dakota State at #9 South Dakota State

SOUTH DAKOTA STATEMENT ??

The No. 8 Jacks derail No. 2 NDSU’s perfect season, keeping the Dakota Marker south of the border! #FCS pic.twitter.com/pyeBgQcIbb

— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) November 4, 2017

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
NDSU	7	0	7	7	21
SDSU	7	10	10	6	33

Quick Hits:

NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 229 yards and 2 TDs and 3 INTs, and ran 28 yards for another TD
NDSU – S Trey Dempsey led the Bison with 8 tackles
NDSU – PK Cam Pederson had 4 kickoffs for an average of 62 yards each with 2 touchbacks
SDSU – QB Taryn Christion had 329 yards and 2 TDs through the air as well as 25 yards and 1 TD on the ground
SDSU – TE Dallas Goedert caught 7 passes for 116 yards and 1 TD
SDSU – PK Chase Vinatieri was 2/2 for FGs from 21 and 41 yards out and was 3/3 on XP attempts

The conference game of the week really lived up to the hype, with the Jackrabbits grabbing the early lead. The Bison would tie it up near the end of the first quarter, but SDSU would get a TD and FG in the 2nd to take a 17-7 lead into halftime. The 3rd quarter, each team would pick up a TD, but then early in the 4th, NDSU would pull within 6 on a Easton Stick run. SDSU answered back with an 86-yard drive for a TD themselves. The next two drives for the Bison, however, would end with turnovers (a fumble and an INT) and would end NDSU’s hopes of a perfect season.

North Dakota State falls to 8-1 overall, 5-1 in the conference, and will angrily welcome a 7-2 South Dakota team to the Fargodome next weekend.
South Dakota State essentially solidifies their playoff chances, moving to 7-2 with a 4-2 conference record. They’ll hope to avoid a “letdown” against a 6-3 Illinois State Redbird team that very nearly has their backs against the wall with regards to a shot at the playoffs.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 7
It was: Jackrabbits by 12
Like I said…throw predictions out the window (including mine) in huge rivalry games like this. I was pretty well on with my thought that SDSU would get decent yardage through the air, but would have trouble moving the ball on the ground. I was also pretty solid with my prediction that NDSU would have some trouble throwing the ball, but completely missed on the ability of SDSU’s defense to shut down NDSU’s run game. Didn’t get this pick, but it doesn’t really surprise me. It was going to be a battle…and a battle it was.

I also wanted to mention, for anyone thinking that this is a sign that NDSU is “down”…out of their 5 championship seasons, the Bison went undefeated once…the other four years they had one loss during the regular season to a MVFC opponent. If history is any guide, NDSU is not out of the picture for being the top team in the FCS…not by a long shot.

I was 41-14 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 4-1 in my picks which puts me at 44-15 for the season so far.

Two weeks…I repeat…two weeks of regular season football remain. 3 MVFC teams are likely in the playoffs…4 teams are likely out…and the remaining 3 teams are needing to finish strong to impress the playoff selection committee. We’ll take a look at the penultimate week of MVFC football in a few days.

AGS Top 25 – How They Fared Week 10 2017

#1	James Madison Dukes	Won at Rhode Island Rams 38-3
#2	North Dakota State Bison	Lost at #9 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 21-33
#3	Jacksonville State Gamecocks	Won vs Murray State Racers 59-23
#4	Central Arkansas Bears	Won at Lamar Cardinals 42-14
#5	South Dakota Coyotes	Lost at #24 Northern Iowa Panthers 29-34
#6	Sam Houston State Bearkats	Won vs Incarnate Word Cardinals 57-20
#7	Elon Phoenix	Won vs Towson Tigers 33-30 (2OT)
#8	Wofford Terriers	Won vs Chattanooga Mocs 24-21
#9	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	Won vs #2 North Dakota State Bison 33-21
#10	Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	Lost at #31 Montana Grizzlies 15-17
#11	Southern Utah Thunderbirds	Won vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks 47-21
#12	North Carolina A&T Aggies	Won at Norfolk State Spartans 35-7
#13	Illinois State Redbirds	Lost vs #16 Western Illinois Leathernecks 14-31
#14	Stony Brook Seawolves	Won vs Albany Great Danes 28-21
#15	Eastern Washington Eagles	Lost vs #17 Weber State Wildcats 20-28
#16	Western Illinois Leathernecks	Won at #13 Illinois State Redbirds 31-14
#17	Weber State Wildcats	Won at #15 Eastern Washington Eagles 28-20
#18	Furman Paladins	BYE
#19	Samford Bulldogs	Won at Mercer Bears 20-3
#20	Western Carolina Catamounts	Won at #36 The Citadel Bulldogs 31-19
#21	Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens	Won at #34 Maine Black Bears 31-17
#22	Monmouth Hawks	Won vs Presbyterian Blue Hose 42-21
#23	Villanova Wildcats	Lost vs #30 Richmond Spiders 0-22
#24	Northern Iowa Panthers	Won vs #5 South Dakota Coyotes 34-29
#25	McNeese State Cowboys	Won vs #36 Southeastern Louisiana Lions 13-3

Next 15
#26	Nicholls State Colonels	Won vs Houston Baptist Huskies 23-17
#27	Grambling State Tigers	Won at Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 31-26
#28	New Hampshire Wildcats	Won at William & Mary Tribe 35-16
#29	Kennesaw State Owls	Won at Montana State Bobcats 16-14
#30	Richmond Spiders	Won at #23 Villanova Wildcats 22-0
#31	Montana Grizzlies	Won vs #10 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 17-15
#32	Yale Bulldogs	Won vs Brown Bears 34-7
#33	Duquesne Dukes	Lost at Liberty Flames 24-27
#34 (t)	North Carolina Central Eagles	Won at Hampton Pirates 14-6
#34 (t)	Maine Black Bears	Lost vs #21 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 17-31
#36 (t)	Youngstown State Penguins	Won at Indiana State Sycamores 66-24
#36 (t)	The Citadel Bulldogs	Lost vs #20 Western Carolina Catamounts 19-31
#36 (t)	Southeastern Louisiana Lions	Lost at #25 McNeese State Cowboys 3-13
#39 (t)	Columbia Lions	Lost vs Harvard Crimson 14-21
#39 (t)	Southern Illinois Salukis	Lost vs Missouri State Bears 28-36
#39 (t)	Prairie View A&M Panthers	Lost at Southern Jaguars 31-37

Patriot League: Week 10 Preview

Lehigh (2-6, 2-1) at Bucknell (4-4, 1-2) – Nov. 4^th 12 PM Christy Mathewson Stadium Lewisburg, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Lehigh heads to Central Pennsylvania to take on the Bucknell Bison in a key Patriot League battle. The Mountain Hawks are still in the driver’s seat for the league title despite putting forth a lackluster effort last weekend against Fordham. Junior quarterback Brad Mayes made several poor decisions, Troy Pelletier was held in check (5 rec 19 yards) and the defense was once again terrible in the 45-35 loss to the Rams. The Mountain Hawks also took a hit on the injury front in the loss. Fifth year senior DT Jimmy Mitchell was lost for the rest of the year with torn ACL and starting tight end Drew Paulsen is likely done for after suffering a severe concussion.

Bucknell enters the game off a terrible performance on the road against Colgate. Bucknell headed to Upstate New York with their championship aspirations still fully in tact but ultimately suffered their worst loss (40-3, 37 point margin) since 2011 when Harvard pounded the Bison 42-3. It was the second straight game the Bison failed to notch an offensive touchdown. As a result of the offense’s recent slide and John Chiarolanzio’s propensity to throw interceptions, Coach Susan is handing the starting quarterback job over to Matt Muh. Muh, a senior, started 4 games last year before suffering a season ending injury against Colgate. With Joey DeFloria ruled out with an injury for a second straight week, Chad Freshnock will get the start at running back.

In recent times Lehigh has completely dominated Bucknell. The Mountain Hawks have won 17 out of the last 19 meetings dating back to 1998. Bucknell has often played Lehigh tough during that time but their inability to score points has cost them. The two times the Bison have put up points, 48 in ’13 and 45 in ’14, they’ve won. Given Lehigh’s historically bad defense there’s little doubt Bucknell will break out of their offensive slump on Saturday. A healthy dose of bruising RB Chad Freshnock and back-up Marquis Carter should be the priority on “O”.

Bucknell needs their defense to bounce back after a really ugly performance against Colgate. My guess is it does. Coach Susan usually has a great defensive game plan to slow down the Mountain Hawk’s traditionally high powered offense.

Prediction: Bucknell 37 Lehigh 27

Holy Cross (3-6, 2-2) at Fordham (3-6, 2-2) – Nov. 4^th 1 PM Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

After struggling for much of the year, both Fordham and Holy Cross enter their annual grudge match off a win. Fordham put forth a spirited effort against Lehigh last weekend in their 45-35 win over the Mountain Hawks. Fourth string RB D’Angelo Palladino exploded for 297 yards to lead the Ram offense in the “W”. The much maligned defense gave up yards in bunches but were able to force 4 key turnovers. If Fordham brings the same energy and intensity there’s a great chance Coach Breiner’s team ends the year on a bit of a roll. It’s still too early to know if Edmonds will be available against the Crusaders. The senior running back is still within a whisker (8 yards) of breaking the league’s all-time rushing record.

Holy Cross put an end to their 5 game losing streak and earned Interim Head Coach Brian Rock his first career win with a 24-10 victory over Georgetown. The Hoyas were just what Holy Cross needed to prevent their season from going completely down the drain. Holy Cross’s defense was able to stifle the struggling Georgetown offense in the second half to preserve the win. On offense, Pujals had a much needed bounce back game against the Hoyas. The 5^th year senior threw the ball well and his decision making was far better than it had been in recent weeks. If Pujals can keep his confidence up and make smart decisions he’ll have opportunities to make plays against the Ram defense (105^th in FCS, 443 ypg).

Despite the records this is an interesting game. Both teams entered the season with high expectations but for numerous reasons each sit at 3-6 as November begins. There are also several proud seniors on Fordham and Holy Cross that will do everything in their power to end their college careers on a positive note. This game will likely come down to the two quarterbacks. Fordham’s Kevin Anderson (245 ypg 14 TD 4 INT) and Pujals (258 ypg 13 TD 7 INT) will put up big numbers but must avoid key mistakes in order for their team to come out on top.

The taste of Fordham running Holy Cross out of Yankee Stadium 54-14 last year has to be on the minds of the Crusader players. There’s no doubt this game will be closer that debacle. Still, the Rams will be at home in the Bronx again where they’ve been brutally tough to beat the last 6 years.

Prediction: Fordham 41 Holy Cross 34

Lafayette (2-6, 2-1) at Georgetown (1-7, 0-3) – Nov. 4^th 2 PM Cooper Field Washington D.C.

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

If you’re looking for an aesthetically pleasing football game that consists of refined offenses and a lots of points Georgetown and Lafayette is not for you. The Leopards (121^st in FCS, 224 ypg) and Hoyas (111^th in FCS, 268 ypg) are two of the most offensively challenged teams in FCS. Even more specifically their respective rushing attacks are atrocious. Georgetown ranks 121^st in FCS with 48 rushing ypg while Lafayette is even worse; 122^ndin FCS with a woeful 20 ypg average. There aren’t many college football games at any level where the two teams combined average rushing total is less than 100 yards! Both offenses are going to count on their quarterbacks to make plays downfield and avoid costly mistakes. Sean O’Malley has the more proven set of pass catchers to work with so if one offensive has an advantage it’s the Leopard’s.

Georgetown’s defense has played well the last 2 weeks (17 & 24 points allowed) after hitting a rough patch early in the season. The key to keeping the Leopard offense under wraps is pressuring O’Malley and limit wide receiver Rocco Palumbo’s (50 ypg 4 TD) touches. If the Hoyas are able to accomplish both of those tasks it’s hard to imagine Lafayette breaking the 20 point barrier. Without a running game it’s very difficult to grind out drives so the points the Leopards do score will likely come off of short fields and/or big plays.

The Leopard defense has been lights out in league play. Leading the way for the Lafayette defense is CB Phil Parham and LB Brandon Bryant (109 tackles). Parham has become dominant in coverage and Bryant is one of the leading candidates for Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year. Georgetown QB Gunther Johnson has brought a spark to the Hoya offense but without a rushing attack he’s been forced to carry too much of the load. The Lafayette defense will try to get after him early and often. Johnson and Michael Dereus will need to make a couple explosive plays downfield in order for the offense to score enough points to win.

Prediction: Lafayette 16 Georgetown 6

MVFC – Week 10 Preview

November…the time when the FCS regular season winds down to a close and for all but 24 teams, coaches and players focus on the off-season…recruiting, scheduling, spending quality time in the weight room. The MVFC lately has been at the level where fully half the teams have a decent shot at postseason football, but even so, we already know that Indiana State, Missouri State, and most likely Youngstown State are out of the playoff picture. North Dakota State (as expected) and South Dakota (less expected) have both already reached 7+ wins…the “magic number” that will get nearly any MVFC team into the bracket. For everyone else, there’s still work to do.

This weekend’s matchups have been played an average of 72 times (with two of the 5 series being played 100 or more times as of this Saturday. In all instances, teams are playing either the closest (in the case of NDSU, YSU, WIU, and MSU) or second closest (everyone else) MVFC teams to their locations. All matchups have the potential to be close and exciting games. I’m not saying there won’t be any blowouts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearly all the games are decided by less than 10 points, so this could very well be one of the most exciting weekends of the year for MVFC football.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings. Also, now that all MVFC teams have played 5 conference games, I am switching over my reference stats that I use to conference-only numbers. It should be much more similar competition and you won’t have games against teams like Mississippi Valley State or Drake bumping the stats for one team or another. So, again…all stats listed are only in MVFC play from here on out (unless otherwise stated).

So, here are the games this week:
12:00 PM – #16 Western Illinois (5-3, 2-3 MVFC) at #13 Illinois State (6-2, 4-1 MVFC)
12:00 PM – Youngstown State (3-5, 1-4 MVFC) at Indiana State (0-8, 0-5 MVFC)
1:00 PM – Missouri State (2-6, 1-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (4-4, 2-3 MVFC)
1:00 PM – #5 South Dakota (7-1, 4-1 MVFC) at #24 Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #2 North Dakota State (8-0, 5-0 MVFC) at #9 South Dakota State (6-2, 3-2 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

News and notes for MVFC and its schools — looking ahead to games of Nov. 4…. https://t.co/CxIFz7ssG9

— Valley Football (@ValleyFootball) October 30, 2017

#16 Western Illinois at #13 Illinois State

Last Week:

Western Illinois lost to South Dakota Sate, 52-24
Illinois State won at Youngstown State, 35-0

History: This will be the 100th meeting between the Leathernecks and Redbirds going back to 1904, with WIU holding the series lead 50-46-3. The two teams have played each other every year back to 1923 except 1973 when there was an odd schedule due to changes in conference/division affiliation, and played each other twice in 2015 (regular season and playoffs). The Redbirds have won the last 7 meetings between the teams, with last year’s matchup being a 31-26 where ISU got ahead early and stayed just enough ahead to win.

Distance: 104 miles, just under a 2-hour drive straight across central Illinois.

Western Illinois is coming off a 28-point loss to South Dakota State last weekend and are looking to put together at least two more wins out of their final three games to get into the playoffs. The Leathernecks still have a passing offense in the top half of the conference, averaging 266 ypg through the air, led primarily by WR Jaelon Acklin who has 152.2 ypg and 6 TDs against MVFC teams. Overall, Acklin is already over 1000 yards receiving, while the #2 receiver in the conference is over 300 yards behind, and is on target to demolish (current Dallas Cowboys Practice Squad WR) Lance Lenior Jr.’s school record for yards in a season as well as a few other season records. Defensively, they’ve been weak against the pass, giving up 294.2 ypg (9th in the conference), but is sitting in the middle in rushing defense, allowing 162.8 ypg. LB Brett Taylor leads conference (and the FCS) in tackles this season with 17.6 per game in MVFC play and 14.8 per game overall. Taylor’s 118 total tackles are 34 more than the #2 tackler in the conference currently. Also handling front-line duties for the Leathernecks is DL Khalen Saunders, who is 3rd in the conference in sacks, 8th in tackles for loss and tied for 1st in forced fumbles. You also have DBs Justin Fitzpatrick and Tyrin Holloway who are 4th and 7th in the conference in interceptions respectively.

Illinois State has spent the last two weeks recovering from losses to Northern Arizona and SIU with a 16-point win over previously unbeaten USD and a 35-point shutout of defending FCS championship runner-up Youngstown State. Of their remaining three games, this will likely be their easiest to pick up the 1 win needed to get them to 7 overall wins and likely into the playoffs. The Redbirds strength this season is their defense…second only to NDSU in scoring (16.9 ppg allowed), yardage (293.4 ypg allowed), and rushing defense (77.3 ypg allowed). Their pass defense is a little weaker, but still pretty good at 4th in the conference allowing 216.1 ypg. Their top tackler is LB Tyree Horton with 53 tackles and 3.5 sacks against MVFC foes. DL Dalton Keene is #2 in the conference in sacks and #3 for both tackles for loss and fumbles recovered. Offensively, ISU is sitting mostly in the middle of the conference, putting up 30.3 ppg and 425.5 ypg. Their forte is the run game, where RB James Robinson is the #2 back in the conference at 85.1 ypg and 9 TDs, and their second back is still only 7th in the conference with 62 ypg and 4 TDs. WR Spencer Schnell is a solid receiver, coming in at 5th in the conference with 80.1 ypg and 4 TDs including a huge performance if 191 yards and 2 TDs against South Dakota two weeks ago.

Personally, I think this game will really come down to who steps up more between the ISU run game and WIU’s run defense. Western has not allowed a 100+ yard rusher all season…ISU had two in last week’s game against YSU, so something has to give there. Another factor could be the weather…currently projected to be about 60 degrees and rainy at game time. This could affect WIU’s passing game somewhat, although I’ve heard that rain actually makes it harder to defend passing teams because the receivers know where they’re going…defenders do not, and have a higher likelihood of slipping or losing their footing. Either way, weather could be a factor. I think that overall, the two teams are pretty evenly matched, so I’ve gotta go with my Leathernecks here. Thanks to a generous ISU season ticket holder who is unable to attend the game, I will be there…surrounded by ISU fans, but I’ll be there. I think the Leathernecks will make the rainy day a little more miserable with a 6 point win over the Redbirds.

Youngstown State at Indiana State

Last Week:

Youngstown State lost to Illinois State, 35-0
Indiana State lost to Missouri State, 59-20

History: The Penguins and Sycamores have played 26 times starting in 1988. YSU holds the series lead 21-5. Last year’s matchup was a 13-10 Youngstown State Homecoming victory.

Distance: This is the one “far” game of the week, being ~425 miles apart or a 6 1/5 hour drive.

Youngstown State, last year’s national championship runners-up, preseason poll “darling” and a team that started off the season 3-1 with an OT loss to FBS Pitt as their only blemish has seen their season essentially go right down the drain, losing their last four straight including being shut out by Illinois State last weekend. Despite the fact that they stand a good chance of winning their last three games, they are effectively out of the playoff picture and are now playing for pride. On the offensive side of the ball, they have a really good running game…or more accurately, they have one really good RB, Tevin McCaster, who is averaging 82 ypg (3rd in the MVFC) and has 9 TDs in MVFC games. Beyond that, however, they have very little going offensively since starting QB Hunter Wells was injured early in the conference portion of the season. When they’re defending, they are pretty solid at stopping teams, allowing 19.5 ppg and 316.6 ypg against the MVFC, with their specific strength being the pass defense, where they are #2 in the conference. FS Jalyn Powell and S Kyle Hegedus are 7th and 8th in the conference in tackles with 63 and 60 respectively.

Indiana State is just full-on winless this year. They’ve been playing for pride for weeks already and despite having a couple of close games early in the season OOC, the closest they’ve been to a conference win is losing by only 11 to Illinois State. They are at the bottom of the conference rankings in both offensive scoring (16.4 ppg) and defensive scoring (42.8 ppg allowed). Pretty much the only aspect where they aren’t last or second-to-last in the conference is in passing offense, where they have WR Bob Pugh who’s catching 71 ypg and 3 TDs in their MVFC games and WR Jacquet McClendon who has 57.4 ypg and 3 TDs as well. RB LeMonte Booker has been doing fairly well considering all the struggles that the team has had, with a 78 ypg rushing average and 4 TDs. On the other side of the ball, LB Jonas Griffith is sitting at 4th in the conference for tackles with 74 and 3 sacks and CB Rondell Green is 2nd in the conference in passes defended with 13…10 breakups and 3 INTs. Really though, outside of a few players who are doing well, it just doesn’t look to be a good season for the Sycamores at all.

So, we get to see just how far YSU has fallen from their early season success. I know they’re down, but I just can’t imagine that they’ve dropped so much that they’ll lose to Indiana State (sorry Sycamore fans). I think we’ll see the Penguins essentially just hand off to McCaster nearly every play and do well enough to come away with a win. He’s good enough for a couple of TDs himself usually, so I think they’ll probably take the victory by about 14.

Missouri State (2-6, 1-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois

Last Week:

Missouri State beat Indiana State, 59-20
Southern Illinois lost at South Dakota, 42-0

History: The Bears and Salukis have played each other 84 times starting in 1909, with MSU holding a 40-36-8 series lead. Last year’s meeting was a 30-22 SIU victory in Springfield, MO, and SIU has won 8 out of the last 10 meetings.

Distance: Springfield, MO and Carbondale, IL are slightly more than 300 miles away from each other…just under a 5 hour drive, although that’s mostly because there’s no good “direct” route between them (“as the crow flies”, they’re only 225 miles apart).

Missouri State picked up their first conference win of the season last weekend when they chopped down the Sycamores. They have shown the ability to put up quite a few points on teams, averaging 27.8 ppg against fellow conference teams. The strength of their offense is their running game, which is averaging over 212 ypg. QB Peyton Huslig is actually the second most productive runner in the conference, with 92 ypg and 2 TDs, although he’s only getting 123 ypg and 3 TDs through the air. When Huslig does air it out, it’s mostly to WR Malik Earl, who has just under 70 ypg in MVFC matchups. Defense is where the Bears struggle and is primarily the reason they haven’t done well this season. They are allowing just over 40 ppg and 473 ppg, both second-to-last in the conference. DL Colby Isbell is the top talent on that side of the MSU team, ranking 4th in the conference in sacks with 3 for 21 yards and has 6 tackles for loss, and is the conference leader in forced fumbles with 3 in 5 MVFC games. WR/RS Deion Holliman is the top dog…er…bear…in the MVFC for returns, leading in both kick returns (23.4 yards per) and punt returns (16.4 yards per).

Southern Illinois was in a similar boat as Missouri State…decent offense (3rd in the conference in ypg with 461) although relying primarily on their passing attack (2nd in the conference with 286 ypg) and led by the 4th best passing QB in the conference, Sam Straub, who had a 239.8 ypg average with 10 TDs. That was…until early in last week’s game with Straub was sidelined for the rest of the season with a broken bone in his throwing hand. Now they have to rely on a Sophomore QB (Tanner Hearn) who hasn’t started a game and has, in four games played in, thrown 19 completions for 276 yards, 1 TD and 5 INTS. Most of those yards, completions, and 4 of the INTs came last weekend against USD when he had to fill in for the injured Straub early in the game. Like Missouri State, the SIU defense isn’t much to write home about, giving up just under 30 ppg and 383.2 ypg against the MVFC, although they do have a couple of decent DBs with S Ryan Neal having the 6th most tackles in the conference with 42 and at #4 in INTs with 2 taken back for a total of 70 yards, as well as CB Craig James at #4 for passes defended with 7 (1 INT). Because of this, they are a bit stronger against the pass than the run. They also have one of the best punters in the conference, Lane Reazin, who is averaging 43.1 yards per punt.

If you’d asked me prior to last Saturday, who would win this game, I would have said that SIU has the better offense and a QB who can make plays happen, as well as a slightly better defense, so the Salukis would likely take the win. However, they are a much different team without Straub, and I think they’ll end up being much less effective throwing the ball. MSU’s strength is the run game, which SIU’s defense is weak against, so I think that Missouri State will actually pull out a win this time by about 10 points.

#5 South Dakota at #24 Northern Iowa

Last Week:

South Dakota beat Southern Illinois, 42-0
Northern Iowa lost at North Dakota State, 30-14

History: The Coyotes and Panthers have faced off 47 times in their teams histories, with Northern Iowa holding a 19-27-1 series lead. Their first meeting was back in 1899 and resulted in a 0-0 tie. UNI has won 7 out of the last 10 meetings and last year’s matchup was a 28-25 South Dakota win at the DakotaDome.

Distance: UNI and USD are ~254 miles apart, which is about a 4 hour drive straight west across Iowa on US 20, then up I-29 a bit from Sioux City to Vermillion.

Northern Iowa’s season has been rather up and down so far, going 1-2 in OOC (with the win being in OT), then a win vs SIU and loss to WIU before starting to turn things around with wins over SDSU and YSU. They’ve definitely been a much better team the last few weeks, but a loss last weekend at the Fargodome means that UNI probably needs to win out to make the playoffs. The Panther offense and defense are averaging nearly the same numbers in terms of points scored/allowed, with 24.8 ppg for the offense and 23.4 ppg allowed for the defense. In MVFC games, they’re pretty much in the lower-middle of the standings. RB Marcus Weymiller has reinvigorated what was a stagnant UNI offense, putting up 123.6 ypg and 4 TDs in the three conference games he has played in, and WR Daurice Fountain is the #5 receiver in the conference, averaging 85 ypg w/ 4 TDs. The Panther run defense is the strongest aspect of that side of the ballgame, currently second in MVFC games allowing only 112.6 ypg and led by the #3 tackler (47 tackles) in the conference, LB Jared Farley. LB Ricky Neal is 1st in the conference in both sacks (6.5) and tackles for loss (9.5).

South Dakota started off the season on a hot streak, winning their first 6 straight games before being taken down by Illinois State, but then following it up with a 42-point shutout of SIU last weekend. At 7 wins, they’re likely already in the playoffs, but they have three very tough games to finish the season (@UNI, @NDSU, vs SDSU) and make a push for a good playoff seed. They also have to deal with the added distraction of two players (one who was one of the team’s top tacklers) being suspended from the team due to charges of alleged sexual assault. USD is currently tied with SDSU for having the #1 scoring offense in the conference, putting up 37.6 ppg, and they also have a very good defense, only allowing 20.8 ppg in the MVFC. QB Chris Streveler, despite being knocked out of the game early last week against SIU and only netting 12 passing yards, is still the top passing QB in the conference, averaging 295.4 ypg through the air w/ 12 TDs and only 2 INTs. WRs Shamar Jackson and Brandt Van Roekel are his primary targets, catching for 72.4 ypg + 1 TD and 67 ygp + 4 TDs respectively. DB Andrew Gray leads the Coyotes in tackles with 39 in their 5 MVFC games with 1 sack, and Andrew’s twin brother, LB Alex Gray, is #4 in the conference in tackles for loss with 6.5.

This one is really tricky to predict, I think. UNI is a lot better now than they were in the first half of the season, while USD has shown some signs of weakness and might come into the game a little distracted. Also, UNI has their backs against the wall really, needing to win to stay in the playoff picture. If Streveler is 100%, then he might have a great game, but if he’s less than that, and Farley and Neal are able to get a lot of pressure on him and get him a bit more banged up, then USD could really struggle offensively. My best guess is that UNI is able to make things a bit rough for Streveler and since it’s at the UNI-Dome, they’re able to come away with a win…by a FG.

#2 North Dakota State at #9 South Dakota State

Last Week:

North Dakota State beat Northern Iowa, 30-14
South Dakota State won at Western Illinois, 52-24

History: The Bison and Jackrabbits have played each other 106 times starting in 1903 with NDSU holding a 60-41-5 series lead. NDSU has also won 9 out of the last 10 meetings…which actually only takes you back 7 years, due to the two teams playing each other three times in the playoffs in that span. The only SDSU win was a 19-17 victory at the Fargodome during the regular season last year, which NDSU was able to get revenge for roughly 2 months later, beating SDSU 36-10 at the Fargodome in last year’s FCS Playoff Quarterfinals round.

Distance: NDSU and SDSU are a quick 190 mile trip up (or down) I-29, which (according to Google Maps) will take you a bit over 2 1/2 hours to drive.

North Dakota State has already punched their ticket to the playoffs, winning their first 8 straight games. The last few games are probably going to be some of their toughest, though, having to play @SDSU, vs USD, and @ILSU. They’re good enough to win all of the games, but it wouldn’t entirely surprise me to see them drop one of them at some point. The Bison have the best defense in the conference (and by most estimations…in the entire FCS). In MVFC matchups, they’re only allowing 12.2 ppg, are the only MVFC team allowing under 100 ypg on the ground (94), and the only MVFC team allowing under 350 ypg…giving up a stingy 237 ypg. They have playmakers at all positions on the defensive side of the ball…and honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one or two players from each “section” (DL, LB, DB) end up playing in the NFL in the next few years. If they have a weakness on defense, it’s against the pass, although it’s not really that big of a weakness compared to teams like INSU or WIU. The Bison also have the top rushing offense in the conference, rolling out with 218 ypg on the ground primarily due to RBs Bruce Anderson (79 ypg) and Lance Dunn (58 ypg) and QB Easton Stick who is also a running threat at 61.4 ypg. The passing game isn’t quite as strong, only putting up 178 ypg in the MVFC, but it obviously has done enough for them to keep them from losing a game.

South Dakota State is more in the “still work to do” category with conference losses to YSU and UNI holding them back. One more win should get them in, although they also have a tough slate of games ahead of them with Illinois State and South Dakota up following this weekend’s game against NDSU. It does seem like their offense has started to kick back into gear after something of a slump in the first part of conference season, having put up an average of 57 points over their last two games (both away games). They have the second best yardage offense in the MVFC behind South Dakota led by the #2 passing QB, Taryn Christion and with two targets that will likely be on NFL rosters next year, WR Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Goedert. Wieneke holds many of the school and conference receiving records, but Goedert is actually having the better season this year, ranking second in the MVFC in receiving with 98 ypg and 2 TDs. Wieneke is very good at coming down with catches in the end zone though, currently tied for #1 in the conference for receiving TDs with 6 against MVFC opponents. The Jackrabbit defense has had some trouble stopping the run, allowing 195 ypg on the ground, but is pretty good against the pass (170 ypg). LB Christian Rozeboom is second in the conference in tackles, with 60 in their 5 conference games.

Another tough one to predict. NDSU is favored, but as is often the case with big rivalry games, you can kinda throw the predictions out the window. Both teams are going to fight tooth-and-nail for every yard in this game and won’t give up until someone is walking off the field holding a big rock (Dakota Marker Trophy). I think that you’ll see SDSU get some decent yardage through the air, but will struggle getting anything going on the ground. NDSU will have a solid day running the ball, but maybe not do quite as well when Stick is trying to throw the ball. My guess is that at some point in the 3rd quarter, NDSU will pull ahead by about a TD and hold the lead until the end; so I’m thinking, Bison by 7.