This week is a damn good listen. The guys go over the big games that dictated a lot of playoff activity. They move along to give an honest opinion of what this year’s FCS Selection Committee did with the field. It is not a ringing endorsement of the scattered thought processes that went into this field in 2017.
So listen up.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
It’s playoff time…er…well, for half of the conference anyway. The other half…they get to spend a bit more time with their families this Thanksgiving break. Since two of the MVFC teams are seeds and 3 are at-large teams, we’ve got 3 games in the first round involving MVFC teams. Here’s the full playoff bracket if you’d like to see what everyone is up to.
I’m going to have to change up the format a little bit and do something more like a stats comparison. In most cases, there’s very little in the way of direct comparisons that can be made between the teams (like with common opponents or something), so I’m kinda having to go off of season stats. Stats aren’t the be-all and end-all of comparisons though. You do have to consider who they played, so I’ll also be listing the strength of schedule rankings for both Sagarin (out of all D1 football programs) and Massey (just FCS programs).
Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.
So, here are the games this week:
3:00 PM – Western Illinois (8-3) at Weber State (9-2)
3:00 PM – South Dakota (7-4) at Nicholls (8-3)
4:00 PM – Monmouth (9-2) at Northern Iowa (7-4)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.
(guess you’ll have to bust out multiple devices if you want to watch all three at the same time).
MVFC ties a record (held by both the MVFC and CAA) with 5 playoff bids…. https://t.co/zWRlxOouSE
— Valley Football (@ValleyFootball) November 19, 2017
This Season
History:
The Leathernecks and Wildcats have played twice in the past as part of a H&H series back in ’75/’76. WIU won the first game at WSU 19-10 and the second one 21-19 in Macomb, so Western Illinois holds the series lead 2-0. Western Illinois will be making their 11th postseason appearance, while Weber State will be making their 6th appearance and their first time hosting a playoff game.
As I said, I’m going to change up the format a little bit, so first off, lets look at how things might go down when Western Illinois has the ball. The Leathernecks put up just over 405 ypg in their games this season (39th in the FCS) and scored at a rate of 35.5 ppg (13th). 160 ypg of that came on the ground (52nd) and just under 245 ypg through the air (27th). The WIU offense allows 5.36 tackles for loss per game (32nd) and has turned the ball over 11 times this season (10th).
The Wildcats defense allowed 338 ypg (37th) and 16.6 ppg (11th), with 196.5 ypg allowed to opposing run games (23rd) and 220.9 ypg to passes (67th). They get 7.1 tackles for loss per game (31st) and have nabbed the ball away 25 times this season (13th).
So, WSU has a good run defense and what I’d consider a mid-range pass defense, while WIU has a mid-range run game and pretty decent passing game. This makes me think that WIU might have a bit of trouble running the ball against the Wildcats, but should be able to get solid yardage through the air. WIU doesn’t turn the ball over much although WSU can create turnovers fairly well.
Flipping things around, when Weber State has the ball, they put up 408.5 ypg (37th in the FCS) and scored at a rate of 35.7 ppg (12th). 196.5 ypg of that came on the ground (25th) and 212 ypg through the air (57th). Their offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has lost the ball 15 times so far (33rd)
The Leathernecks defense allowed 343.2 ypg (39th) and 22.3 ppg (36th) with 160.3 ypg allowed against the run (24th) and 223.3 ypg allowed through the air (72nd). They get 8 tackles for loss per game (14th) and have forced 26 turnovers this season (6th)
Here WIU has a good run defense and mid-level pass defense, while WSU has a good running offense and mid-level passing offense, which points towards the Wildcats being fairly even offensively, probably relying a little more heavily on the ground game than WIU will be. WIU is better at getting tackles for loss than WSU is at preventing them and is very good at forcing turnovers, something the Wildcats have struggled with somewhat this season.
On special teams, Weber State has a much better punter and punt return defense, but WIU has a better punt returner. The kickoffs and kick returns are much closer though.
WIU has a better turnover margin, has a few more sacks on other teams, and allowes fewer sacks on themselves. The Wildcats have the TOP advantage and don’t get penalized as much.
Honestly, just looking at the stats, these two teams form one of the most even matchups I’ve ever seen between football teams. Even the predictions that I’ve seen bear that out…Massey has WIU by essentially 1 point, Vegas says it’s dead even…I saw another site that gave WSU the nod by 1 point. My view on things is that usually predictions take into account something along the lines of a 3 point home field advantage. Thing is, I’ve seen Western Illinois play in 3 of the 4 home games and 2 of the road games. They actually get pumped up more when they play on the road. They really thrive on taking a loud opposing crowd and completely shutting them up…even more so than they do in front of a home “crowd”. Because of that, I think that home field advantage doesn’t really matter in most situations for the Leathernecks, so you can throw those 3 points out the window. My prediction is that Western Illinois gets by the Wildcats by just about that 3 point margin and moves on to another game in Utah…this time in Cedar City at Southern Utah.
This Season
History:
The Coyotes and Colonels have never met before on the football field. It will be Nicholls’ 4th appearance in the playoffs and their first time hosting, while this is the first time that South Dakota has made it to the FCS playoffs.
We’ll start by taking a look at the numbers. When South Dakota has the ball, they put up 519 ypg (2nd in the FCS) and 37.8 ppg (5th). On the ground, they accumulate 207 ypg (22nd) and through the air, 312 ypg (9th). USD’s O-Line is allowing 5.91 tackles for loss per game (45th) and their offense has lost 10 turnovers this season (6th).
The Nicholls State defense allows 343 ypg (39th) and 24 ppg (49th). Of those yards, 152 ypg are on the ground (62nd) and 190 are through the air (33rd). They are averaging 8 tackles for loss per game (12th) and have created 13 turnovers this season (104th).
In this situation, South Dakota has one of the better offenses in the entire FCS…assuming QB Chris Streveler is something close to fully healthy (he’s been banged up a lot over the last few weeks). He is a significant portion of the Coyote offense, so if he’s not doing well, things could get a little dicey for them. Assuming he’s relatively ok, USD will likely have a fairly balanced offense. Their run game is decent and NSU’s run defense is relatively mediocre, meanwhile the Coyotes’ passing attack is in the top 10 of the FCS, but NSU’s pass defense isn’t ranked too badly either.
On the other side, Nicholls State comes in putting up 395 ypg (45th) and 28 ppg (44th). They run for 196 ypg (26th) and pass for 199 ypg (69th). Their offensive line allows 4.73 tackles for loss per game (18th) and the offense has lost 23 turnovers (93rd).
USD’s defense allows 382 ypg (76th) and 23.5 ppg (42nd). Their run defense allows 137 ypg (41st) and pass defense 245 ypg (97th). They get 8.5 tackles for loss per game (3rd) and have gained 17 turnovers (72nd).
So, the Coyotes do seem to allow quite a few yards, especially against the pass. However, NSU’s strength is their run game, which is USD’s defensive strength. One big difference is that NSU has lost quite a few turnovers this season. USD isn’t great at gaining turnovers, especially with their best DB having been suspended (kicked off maybe?) from the team, but might be able to get one or two.
Obviously anything is possible in the playoffs…upsets happen every year, but I don’t really see this one being close unless Chris Streveler has to sit out for a significant portion of the game. He’s the type of QB who can turn a broken play into a first down on a regular basis, either by running the ball himself (he’s not easy to take down) or by scrambling and finding a receiver (he can make very accurate throws on the run while being pressured). I think he’ll probably be a bit too much for the Colonels defense to handle and the Coyotes will come away with about a 14-point victory and head over to Sam Houston State in a week.
This Season:
History: This is the first time that Northern Iowa and Monmouth University have played each other. This is Monmouth’s first appearance in the playoffs and Northern Iowa’s 19th.
On with the digits…Northern Iowa’s offense marches down the field at a rate of 338 ypg (77th in the FCS) and puts up 28.5 ppg (41st). They get 111 ypg on the ground (93rd) and 227 ypg through the air (40th). The Panther offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has lost 20 turnovers this season (79th).
Monmouth’s defense has been holding teams to 380 ypg (74th) and 25.9 ppg (63rd). They only allow 131 ypg on the ground (35th) but give up 249 ypg through the air (102nd). They have gotten 5.5 tackles for loss per game (85th) and forced 17 turnovers this season (72nd).
So, UNI has a halfway decent passing game and Monmouth (do they go by MU?) is in the bottom 20 for pass defense. I see the Panthers have a pretty big day passing the ball. Monmouth has been pretty decent at stopping RBs, but I’m not sure they’ve faced a RB quite like UNI’s Marcus Weymiller.
When the Hawks have the ball, the put up 413 total ypg (33rd) and 35.2 ppg (15th). They get 210 ypg of that on the ground (20th) and 202 ypg through the air (65th). Their offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has turned the ball over 18 times (55th).
The Panthers’ defense allows 373 ypg (63rd) and 23.9 ppg (45th), with 130 ypg allowed against the run (34th) and 249 ypg through the air (93rd). They get 5.5 tackles for loss per game (92nd) and have forced 24 turnovers this season (36th).
In this case, Monmouth’s offensive strength is running the ball, but that also happens to be UNI’s defensive strength. I’m honestly surprised UNI’s tackles for loss is so low, because LB Ricky Neal is one of the best players I’ve seen this year at getting pressure on a QB. He’s leading the conference in sacks and is #2 in tackles for loss.
This is one of those situations where the pure stats don’t really tell the full story. According to most strength of schedule rankings, UNI has played a tougher schedule than all of the FCS…and really…a good chunk of FBS G5 teams, whereas Monmouth has played a schedule that is rated in the bottom 20% of the FCS. Another issue is likely going to be crowd noise. Monmouth has played in front of 5k or more fans three times this season…at Albany (6,384) which was a loss, at Hampton (5,123)…a win, and and at Kennesaw State (6,808)…a big loss. Meanwhile, UNI has averaged over 10.8k fans per home game this season, and while it’s no Fargodome or Wa-Griz Stadium, I can attest from personal experience that the UNI-Dome can get very loud at times. If the Hawks want to do well at the Dome, they’ll need to have really practiced non-verbal counts and cues. I think overall the Panther defense will make things very difficult for the Hawks and UNI will come away with about a 20 point win and move on to face South Dakota State again next weekend.
The FCS playoff field has been decided. Three Big Sky teams will be making an appearance in the field of 24. Northern Arizona, Southern Utah, and Weber State will represent the conference in the annual tournament. Reigning FCS champion James Madison collected the overall one seed while North Dakota State will be the two seed on the other side of the bracket.
Southern Utah won the auto-bid as the conference champion. The Thunderbirds were 7-1 in conference play, their only loss coming to Sacramento State. Southern Utah will have the seven seed in the tournament. Their second round opponent will be the winner of Weber State and Western Illinois. The Wildcats will be hosting their first ever playoff game in Ogden this week. Northern Arizona will be hosting Pioneer league champion San Diego. The winner of that game will move on to face North Dakota State in Fargo.
Left out of the playoff field were Eastern Washington, Montana, and Sacramento State. All three teams could have made a case for being in the playoff field, but alas, other teams were picked ahead of them. Eastern Washington athletic director Bill Chaves had some words for the playoff selection committee in a series of tweets on Sunday morning. Assistant Big Sky Commissioner Jon Kasper also had a few choice Tweets for the playoff committee.
Onto the week’s action..
In the annual Treasure State Super Bowl Montana State hosted rival Montana. The Cats and Griz have been battling for 118 years. Montana could not get the best of the Bobcats in this one. Montana State quarterback Chris Murray rushed for 98 yards and rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown. In total the Bobcats rushed for 322 yards and four touchdowns in their Saturday win. Montana collected 326 yards through the air, but a costly Gresch Jensen fumble deep on Montana territory all but sealed the deal for the Cats. On Monday Montana athletic director, and Skyline Sports first reporting, that Bob Stitt’s contract at Montana would not be renewed and a coaching search would ensue.
Cal Poly and Northern Colorado finished their seasons with the Big Sky’s weekly pillow fight. The Mustangs showed true pillow fight material by giving up 42 straight points to Northern Colorado. Northern Colorado quarterback Conor Regan, playing in relief for Jacob Knipp, threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Bears. Kicker Collin Root scored 10 of the Bears’ 42 points. Pretty good day for a kicker. Cal Poly will likely try to forget this season as soon as possible, one of their worst since joining the Big Sky Conference. The Mustangs finished 1-10 on the season. The Bears finished a respectable 3-7.
Weber State emphatically made their case for a playoff spot, and a chance for a conference title if Southern Utah faltered, on Saturday. The Wildcats flat whipped the Idaho State Bengals 35-7 on Ogden on Saturday. As a reward they will get to host a playoff game. Stefan Cantwell accounted for 337 yards and four touchdowns. Idaho State didn’t account for that many yards as a team, if that’s any indicator how their Saturday went. The Wildcats will host Western Illinois on Saturday.
Northern Arizona and Southern Utah did battle in their final game of the season in Cedar City. If Northern Arizona wanted to get off of the bubble and send Jerome Souers out on a winning note they were going to have beat the Thunderbirds. They did neither of those. Southern Utah won by 28 points and wrapped up the Big Sky’s auto-bid to the playoffs. Patrick Tyler had 238 yards passing and 31 yards rushing with two touchdowns. In a strange turn of events, even with NAU losing and getting a playoff spot, the University announced on Monday afternoon that the Lumberjacks would retain Jerome Souers for next season. Also announced was Andy Thompson would be named assistant head coach, an obvious succession plan to Souers. Northern Arizona will host San Diego on Saturday, while Southern Utah will wait out the winner of Weber State and Western Illinois.
In the annual Causeway Classic the Sacramento State Hornets hosted the UC Davis Aggies. Sacramento State somehow stayed within grasp of the playoff field. The Hornets and Aggies racked up an impressive amount of yards in a game that didn’t particular matter for anything important other than central valley bragging rights. They combined for 1250 yards in a 52-47 win for the Hornets. UC Davis made it a game after falling behind. They scored 13 unanswered in the fourth quarter. UC Davis got the ball back late but couldn’t convert on fourth and six to keep their chance at a win alive. Helluva season, Hornets.
In the final game of the day Eastern Washington pushed to keep its playoff hopes alive and all they had to do was beat Portland State. I would like to say this game was close, and it was for two quarters. Then Eastern Washington exploded for 28 points in the third quarter and it wasn’t close anymore. A turning point early in the game for Eastern Washington was Gage Gubrud somehow being sacked in the end zone and simultaneously flinging the ball over his back shoulder resulted in an incomplete pass. The Eagles then went on a 99 yard scoring drive. That pretty much summed up Portland State’s day. Eastern Washington did not make the playoffs despite having a resume that suggested they should.
Scores
Montana 23
Montana State 31
Cal Poly 0
Northern Colorado 42
Idaho State 7
Weber State 35
Northern Arizona 20
Southern Utah 48
UC Davis 47
Sacramento State 52
Portland State 33
Eastern Washington 59
Big Sky Player of the Week
The Big Sky Player of the Week this week is Weber State quarterback Stefan Cantwell. Cantwell was 21/29 for 262 yards and 3 TDs, while rushing 16 times for 75 yards and 1 TD as Weber State wrapped up their season with a win against Idaho State.
Big Sky MVP Candidates
Gage Gubrud, QB, Eastern Washington – 17/32 for 445 yards, 4TD, 8 rush for 67 yards, 1 TD
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 5 receptions for 86 yards
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 13 receptions for 173 yards, 1 rush for 42 yards, 1 TD
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – 30/49 for 326 yards, 1 TD 1 INT, 6 rush for 35 yards
Patrick Tyler, QB, Southern Utah – 20/30 for 238 yards, 1 INT, 10 rushes 31 yards 2 TD
Big Sky Power Rankings
1. Southern Utah
2. Weber State
3. Eastern Washington
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. Sacramento State
7. Montana State
8. UC-Davis
9. Northern Colorado
10. Idaho State
11. North Dakota
12. Cal Poly
13. Portland State
Final Thoughts and Hot Takes
There’s no hot takes I can offer that can match what Bill Chaves and Jon Kasper tweeted out this weekend. They tweeted pure fire at the playoff committee for leaving out Eastern Washington, not seeding Southern Utah high enough, and basically said the playoff committee has their head in their … darker body cavities. They both make a strong case, and mildly suggest that the playoff committee try watching football in the Mountain and Pacific time zones someday.
The Jerome Souers story is totally nuts. He was told early in the season that he would not be retained as their head coach at the end of the season. Effectively him and his staff were lame ducks. Over the weekend the NAU athletic director took a new job at UTSA. NAU’s president decided Sauers was getting a raw deal and decided on his own to retain him. Presumably Souers had done enough this season to warrant not being pushed out the door. Bizarre circumstances in Flagstaff.
Montana firing Bob Stitt is a puzzler. 21-14, 1-1 in playoff games. Griz fans are very demanding of their coaches and nothing short of Nick Saban success is good enough. Now if only Montana had Alabama finances to justify this kind of outrage. That being said, that’s college football nowadays, what have you done for me today? I think Montana was a year away from being a very formidable football team. However, in the Treasure State beating the cats is a higher priority than most anything. Can’t face your co-workers on Monday after a loss.
That said, Bruce Barnum went 0-11 and will still be the head coach at Portland State next season.
Eastern Washington not getting into the playoffs was a bit of a sham. Just looking at the playoff bracket I can see some teams in there in the “do not belong” category. I’m looking at you Monmouth, Nicholls State, and just because it pisses me off, San Diego. Lehigh will be in the playoff field with a 5-6 record and not getting any votes in the STATS or AGS top 25 polls. However, because their sham of a conference is awarded an auto-bid, here we are. Colgate, by the way? 7-4, 5-1 on the season. Their only conference loss? Lehigh. Thus, your autobid.
My winners for next week: Stony Brook, Weber State, Northern Iowa, New Hampshire, Kennesaw State, South Dakota, Elon, Northern Arizona.
My champion: James Madison d. North Dakota State.
And here we are again once more…another football season has come and gone (well…regular season, anyway). I’d say that it seems like it goes faster every year, but really…isn’t that just life? I plan on going into each team a little more in-depth a little later on into the postseason; maybe do a brief “year in review” of each team, who they’re saying goodbye to, hope for the future, that kind of stuff. No promises, but I’ll do my best.
Now that the regular season has wrapped up, we can take a look at the final conference standings (ordered by conference record, then by overall record).
| School | Overall | Conference |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 10-1 | 7-1 |
| South Dakota State | 9-2 | 6-2 |
| Northern Iowa | 7-4 | 6-2 |
| Western Illinois | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| South Dakota | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| Illinois State | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| Youngstown State | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| Southern Illinois | 4-7 | 2-6 |
| Missouri State | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Indiana State | 0-11 | 0-8 |
Thank You Penguin Nation for all your support this season, and best of luck to the rest of the @ValleyFootball teams that made it. Time to prove again who the best conference in football is. We will be back.#GoGuins pic.twitter.com/Y03bzXl9K5
— YSU Football ?? (@YoungstownStFB) November 19, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| MSU | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| YSU | 10 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
Quick Hits:
The first half was all Penguins, putting up 10 in the first quarter and 14 in the second, while holding MSU to no points. MSU finally got on the board with a FG in the 3rd. In the final quarter of the game, YSU had two TD runs that sandwiched a MSU TD run, which pushed the game even further out of reach for the Bears and gave the Penguins the 38-10 victory.
Youngstown State finishes the regular season at 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the conference.
Missouri State drops to 3-8 overall, 2-6 against MVFC teams
My Pick in Review:
I said: Penguins by 7
It was: Penguins by 28
Well…YSU has been kinda on-again-off-again this season, getting shut out by Illinois State, then putting up 66 the next week on Indiana State. I guess I figured this would be a lower-scoring game for YSU, and I was wrong. I did get the pick right, though, so that counts for something…right?
It’s hard to get to the top, and even harder to stay on top. The Bison are 7-time Missouri Valley Football Conference champions. pic.twitter.com/V0MZenJTxD
— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) November 18, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| NDSU | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| ILSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
Quick Hits:
This game was a full-on “Snow Bowl” with significant wind and near-blizzard conditions, so obviously that stats were significantly hindered by the conditions of the game. No team was really able to get anything significant going in the first half, which led to a couple of big old zeros on the scoreboard at halftime. In the 3rd, however, NDSU was able to get their run game going in a couple of drives that led to TDs to go up 13-0. In the 4th, ILSU finally put points on the board with a running TD of their own, but the Bison answered back immediately with a 3-play, 40 second TD drive with under 3 minutes left in the game to put the final nail in the coffin on a 20-7 win over the ranked Redbirds.
North Dakota State finishes the regular season at 10-1 and 7-1 in the MVFC. They are the #2 seed in the playoffs and will sit out the first weekend awaiting the winner of San Diego and Northern Arizona.
Illinois State ends up at 6-5 with a 4-4 conference record.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Bison by 14
It was: Bison by 13
Damn you blocked XP attempt. Otherwise…nailed it.
That’s a Leatherneck dub on Senior Day to end the regular season!!ðŸ‘👠pic.twitter.com/hnMKyElWCw
— WIU Football (@WIUfootball) November 18, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| SIU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| WIU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Quick Hits:
Again the WIU defense steps up huge for most of the game. On a day where the wind played a significant factor (making things much easier for SIU in the 2nd and 4th quarters), the SIU offense was held to 6 total first downs, with the Salukis finally getting first down #3 halfway through the 4th quarter. The first part of the game, pretty much neither offense was able to figure out a rhythm in the blustery conditions. It wasn’t until under 2 minutes left in the first half when WIU went ahead with their first TD. A couple plays into SIU’s next drive, WIU got an INT and then on the next play, threw a 52-yard TD bomb to standout WR Jaelon Acklin. Early in the 3rd, WIU picked up another TD on a 17-yard Max Norris run, and then midway through the 4th, another Acklin TD…this time 8 yards on the ground to put the Leathernecks ahead 28-0. The WIU defense ended up taking the foot off the gas a bit near the end of the game and allowed SIU, with the wind at their backs, to pick up their first points of the game with around 6 minutes left. They tacked on another one with just over 3 minutes left, but the Leathernecks would hold the Salukis for the remainder and win 28-14.
Western Illinois finishes the regular season at 8-3…their first 8-win season since 2003, with a 5-3 conference record. They will head out west to take on 9-2 Weber State in a first round playoff matchup in Ogden, Utah.
Southern Illinois ends their season at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Leathernecks by 12
It was: Leathernecks by 14
Pretty nearly nailed that one. I was hoping for another shutout like last week, but I suppose holding another team to a goose egg was a bit too much to ask.
Jackrabbits outlast USD, 31-28 https://t.co/W7v2l5DB9j
— SDSU Football (@GoJacksFB) November 19, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| SDSU | 0 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| USD | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Quick Hits:
Unlike the last few games, this one wasn’t significantly impacted by the weather. It also ended up being the closest of all the conference games this weekend. Lots of defense in the first quarter…bunch of punts and an INT…meant no points. Apparently they were saving most of them for the 2nd quarter because the Jackrabbits got the scoring started with a FG early in the quarter. They tacked on a TD before USD put up their own TD. That was quickly followed by a quick SDSU drive capped by a 69-yard TD pass…which was itself quickly answered by a short USD drive finishing with a 17-yard TD run, which would put the score at 17-14 at halftime, with “State” holding the narrow lead. Late in the 3rd, USD would get their first lead of the game on a 10-yard TD pass, but SDSU would take it right back with their own TD drive. SDSU would add one another score with under 5 minutes left in the game, but USD would end up keeping it close with one of their own with just over 2 minutes left. At that point the Jackrabbits had the 3-point lead, which they would hold onto for the win.
South Dakota State ends their regular season at 9-2 overall, 6-2 in the MVFC. They were awarded the #5 seed in the playoffs and will host the winner of next weekend’s matchup between Northern Iowa and Monmouth University.
South Dakota drops to 7-4 in their regular season, with a 4-4 conference record. Despite losing their last 3 games, they were able to find their way into the playoffs and will head down to Thibodaux, LA to take on 8-3 Nicholls State next weekend.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Jackrabbits by 4
It was: Jackrabbits by 3
Hey, I think I’m getting pretty good at this picking thing.
RECAP | Panthers Cut Down Sycamores, 41-3
📰: https://t.co/T3U6JTn4It
📊: https://t.co/5E3MqglTsb#UNIFight pic.twitter.com/qbM5YHg6aw— UNI Football (@UNIFootball) November 19, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| INSU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| UNI | 17 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 41 |
Quick Hits:
Indiana State vs a ranked team…do we really need to talk about this?…ok, fine.
The Sycamores started off the scoring with a FG early in the first quarter to take their first and only lead of the game by 3 points. UNI would answer with 2 TDs and a FG of their own to go ahead 17-3. In the second quarter, UNI had another FG and another TD to take a 27-3 lead into halftime. A TD in each of the last two quarters put the Panthers ahead with a final score of 41-3.
Northern Iowa finishes the regular season on a high note with a 7-4 overall record and 6-2 in the conference. They will host 9-2 Monmouth University at the UNIDome next weekend.
Indiana State finishes a heavily disappointing winless season with a 0-11 record…8 of those in the MVFC.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Panthers by 30
It was: Panthers by 38
Not bad…could have been closer on the margin, but pretty solid. Specifically what I said was “I think the Sycamores will struggle to get points on the board this game, and while the Panther offense might not put up the 42 points that have been averaged against them in the last few games, I think they’ll get close.” So…close to 42 points…how about 41?…close enough?
I was 49-15 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 5-0 in my picks which puts me at 54-15 for the regular season, which works out to 78.2% correct picks. Not too bad…not amazing, but decent, I’d say.
Later this week I’ll preview the 3 MVFC playoff games coming up the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
This is not, I repeat not the official NCAA FCS Bracket. This is what it should like when it comes out. I hope they get it right like they did last year. We are projecting based off of our AGS Top 25 Poll which has been a very good predictor of playoff teams over the years.
The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket
Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both the seeds and at larges as that poll has been one of the better predictors of both those selections and is a combination of many voters and not just that of one opinion. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess at automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines the committee uses from the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together. You can see those guidelines in the link below.
Championship Manual Link
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/fi…l_20170914.pdf
Last four in: Delaware, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, McNeese St
First four out: New Hampshire, Monmouth, Sacramento State, Austin Peay
Next four out: Montana, Illinois State, Nicholls State, Richmond
The Seeds: The seeds remained almost the same as last week with Southern Utah leap frogging Wofford to swap 7 and 8 seeds after the Thunderbirds finished off with a dominating performance to tie up the Big Sky crown. Although Wofford dropped one spot despite a respectable showing against FBS and SEC foe South Carolina. The AGS top 8 have been consistent the past couple of weeks and I expect the committee will come up with the same 8 seeds. However, the order is still very much unsure as we haven’t seen a committee ranking after two weekends of competition.
The Bubble: Eastern Washington and McNeese St have moved into the bracket following wins to finish out their seasons. Montana and New Hampshire were both eliminated from the field following losses with the Wildcats just missing as our unfortunate first team out. Delaware was the last team in still holding onto a spot after their loss this weekend, but putting them square in the bubble. Kennesaw St also moved into the field securing the Big South auto which eliminated Monmouth although the Hawks sit as the second team out. Sacramento State and Austin Peay moved into the first group of teams out finishing out the season strong, but that wasn’t quite enough to get them into the bracket.
*Note: Elon/Furman and Samford/Kennesaw St played OOC matchups earlier in the season. The committee does try and avoid these matchups barring it doesn’t create additional flights. As this field was set, splitting up these matchups created additional travel. Conference rematches are not allowed in the first round.
Conference Breakdown Below
| Automatic Qualifiers | At- Large Bids | |
| Big Sky | Southern Utah | Weber St |
| Eastern Washington | ||
| Northern Arizona | ||
| Big South | Kennesaw St | |
| CAA | James Madison | Stony Brook |
| Elon | ||
| Delaware | ||
| MVFC | North Dakota St | South Dakota St |
| Western Illinois | ||
| Norhtern Iowa | ||
| South Dakota | ||
| NEC | Central Connecticut | |
| OVC | Jacksonville St | |
| Patroit | Lehigh | |
| Pioneer | San Diego | |
| Southern | Wofford | Samford |
| Furman | ||
| Southland | Central Arkansas | Sam Houston St |
| McNeese St |
Selection Sunday 2017 is here and with that comes the final regular season release of the AGS Poll. There wasn’t much movement at the top this week but towards the middle and bottom there was a figurative earthquake with 8 of the 11 teams ranked between #12 and #22 sustaining losses to end their regular season. The top 5 remained unchanged as James Madison went wire-to-wire as #1 in the regular season picking up all 64 first place votes after their undefeated regular season. North Dakota State, Central Arkansas, Jacksonville State, and South Dakota State all maintained their positions at #2-#5 after holding serve this week with wins.
As for teams moving up Samford jumped 5 spots to #13 after snapping Furman’s 7 game win streak. Kennesaw St was the biggest riser of the week jumping 7 spots to #17 after dominating Monmouth in the de facto Big South championship game. McNeese and Eastern Washington took advantage of teams in front of them losing to move up 4 and 5 spots to #19 and #20, respectively, despite winning games they were expected to win. Yale made their first appearance, and also the first appearance by an Ivy League team, in the top 25 this year jumping 5 spots to come in at #25 after finishing their season 9-1.
As for the teams that went the other way Furman dropped 4 spots to #18 after dropping their aforementioned game against Samford. Northern Arizona dropped 5 spots to #21 following their loss to Southern Utah. Several bubble teams like South Dakota, Furman, Northern Arizona, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Monmouth didn’t drop too far due to the teams around them all losing as the furthest any of those teams dropped was 3 spots. Montana dropped out of the top 25 after losing their final regular season game to in-state rival Montana State.
The CAA and MVFC led the way in terms of conference representation each placing 5 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the Big Sky with 4, the Southland and SOCON with 3 each, and the Big South with 2 teams in the top 25.
Full results below:
| Rank | Team | Total Points | First Place Votes |
| 1 | James Madison Dukes | 1600 | 64 |
| 2 | North Dakota State Bison | 1512 | |
| 3 | Central Arkansas Bears | 1449 | |
| 4 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 1399 | |
| 5 | South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 1370 | |
| 6 | Sam Houston State Bearkats | 1227 | |
| 7 | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | 1208 | |
| 8 | Wofford Terriers | 1137 | |
| 9 | Stony Brook Seawolves | 1032 | |
| 10 | Weber State Wildcats | 1019 | |
| 11 | Western Illinois Leathernecks | 995 | |
| 12 | North Carolina A&T Aggies | 799 | |
| 13 | Samford Bulldogs | 795 | |
| 14 | Northern Iowa Panthers | 770 | |
| 15 | Elon Phoenix | 675 | |
| 16 | South Dakota Coyotes | 593 | |
| 17 | Kennessaw State Owls | 547 | |
| 18 | Furman Paladins | 472 | |
| 19 | McNeese State Cowboys | 441 | |
| 20 | Eastern Washington Eagles | 407 | |
| 21 | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 332 | |
| 22 | Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens | 185 | |
| 23 | New Hampshire Wildcats | 129 | |
| 24 | Monmouth Hawks | 113 | |
| 25 | Yale Bulldogs | 104 | |
| ORV: | |||
| 26 | Grambling State Tigers | 102 | |
| 27 | Sacramento State Hornets | 83 | |
| 28 | Austin Peay Governors | 71 | |
| 29 | Montana Grizzlies | 68 | |
| 30 | Illinois State Redbirds | 58 | |
| 31 | Nicholls State Colonels | 39 | |
| 32 | Richmond Spiders | 20 | |
| 33 | Western Carolina Catamounts | 18 | |
| 34 | Colgate Raiders | 17 | |
| 35 | Central Connecticut State Blue Devils | 7 | |
| 36 | Youngstown State Penguins | 4 | |
| 37 | San Diego Toreros | 2 | |
| 38 | Columbia Lions | 1 |
Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?199205-AGS-Poll-Results-WEEK-12-SELECTION-SUNDAY-POLL
NOTE: The FCS Selection Show begins at 11AM ET on ESPNU. Tune in to see if the AGS Poll can maintain it’s position as the top FCS poll in the nation in terms of projecting playoff teams and playoff seeds.
The final week is upon us! Ferris Bueller’s prophetic statement regarding the concept of life and time certainly applies to football season! It feels like if you blink you miss it! Not everything has been pretty to watch this season in the Patriot League but in some ways that’s the “beauty” of the league. With a championship still up for grabs and #153 on tap this weekend might prove to be the best of the year!
Bucknell (5-5, 2-3) at Fordham (3-7, 2-3) – Nov. 18th 12 PM Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY
Live Streaming – Patriot League Network
Bucknell will try to nail down their first winning season since 2014 as they head to the Big Apple to take on Fordham. Not only will Bucknell be looking to finish above .500, they’ll also be trying to snap a 4 game losing streak against Fordham. The Bison last defeated Fordham in 2012 when they snuck past the Rams 27-24. In order for Bucknell to close out the season on a positive note the ground attack must produce like it has the last two weeks. For much of 2017 the combo of DeFloria (401 yards) and Freshnock (513 yards) were combining for less than 80 yards a game which is a big reason why the Bison failed to seriously challenge for the league title. John Chiarolanzio is once against expected to get the start at quarterback. If the Bison want to take a step forward in 2018 they’ll need better production from the offensive line and the quarterback position.
To call Fordham’s season a disappointment would be a rather significant understatement. Before the season started the Rams seemed poised to be a Top 25 team and return to the FCS Playoffs. They returned arguably the greatest running back in school history and one of the best ever in FCS, in Chase Edmonds (392 yards 3 TDs) as well as a talented, veteran quarterback (Kevin Anderson) to lead the offense. The defense had been an issue in recent years but the unit returned quite a bit of experience from an 8 win team. As it turned it they got steamrolled by Army on opening night, Edmonds got hurt in week 2, the defense went into the tank and they were never able to recover. Now all that’s left is to make sure Edmonds, Anderson, Adeyeye, Coyle and the rest of the seniors that were brought in by Joe Moorhead finish out their careers with one final win at home.
Both teams should enter this game motivated. Fordham is coming off a late season bye so they’ll be rested and eager to send the seniors off in style. Bucknell obviously wants to finish with a 6-5 record and get over the Fordham hump. Assuming that Kevin Anderson plays, which is expected, Fordham has the advantage on offense. Overall, Bucknell’s defense has been pretty good all year (22.9 ppg allowed) but they weren’t immune to some ugliness at times. Fordham’s offensive trio of Anderson, Edmonds and Longi should be able to make just enough plays to eke out a 4th and final win.
Prediction: Fordham 24 Bucknell 20
Colgate (6-4, 4-1) at Georgetown (1-9, 0-5) – Nov. 18th 1 PM Cooper Field Washington D.C.
Live Streaming – Patriot League Network
Colgate takes the long 7 hour bus ride to our nation’s capital to take on the hapless Hoyas in what is an extremely important game for the Raiders. A Colgate win guarantees them at least a share of their 9th Patriot League Title. If Lafayette is able to beat Lehigh, Colgate would then earn the outright league title and the automatic bid to the FCS Playoffs. Coach Hunt has done an excellent job getting this year’s team to improve each and every week; especially the offense. The “O” has made tremendous strides under freshman quarterback Grant Breneman (1,457 yards 15 TDs 4 INTs, 369 yards rushing 6 TDs). Hunt made the bold decision to bench Carmine Scarfone in favor of Breneman after only 2 games. As it’s turned out, Colgate might have found their next Ryan Vena in Breneman. The defense has been quite tough as well despite playing the first month of the season without All-American Rush End Pat Afriyie. Outside of two bad outings against Furman and Lehigh, the “D” has played at a championship level.
Georgetown enters this game on the complete opposite side of the spectrum from Colgate. The Hoyas have not won since their season opener against Campbell. Georgetown is also riding a 14 game Patriot League losing streak that dates back to 17-9 win over Bucknell on 10/24/15. Needless to say, the once proud Georgetown football program is struggling and there’s very little reason for optimism without more of a commitment from the administration. Coach Sgarlatta has done a tremendous job getting his team to compete week in and week out. The Hoyas are rarely blown out in league play because they continue to play tough, physical defense. However, the dearth of playmakers year after year on offense has incapacitated the offense (252 ypg 118th in FCS/12.8 ppg 118th in FCS). Until the Hoyas are able to find a way to land talented skill position players the losing is going to continue.
On paper the only way Colgate loses this game is if they literally don’t show up. The Raiders have been playing with such focus and precision in recent weeks that it’s impossible to see them being the team that breaks the Hoyas dubious losing streaks. Breneman and company simply must protect the ball on offense. The Raider special teams can’t allow any big plays either. Georgetown’s defense will make the Raider offense work but there’s no way the Hoyas can score enough to win without help. The Hoyas will avoid being shutout 3 straight games to conclude the season but that’s as good as the moral victory will get.
If Colgate does make the playoffs they could be a major headache with the right matchup. If not, they still have an excellent core that seems capable of big things in 2018.
Prediction: Colgate 24 Georgetown 3
#153 Lafayette (3-7, 3-2) at Lehigh (4-6, 4-1) – Nov. 18th 12:30 PM Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA
Live Streaming – Patriot League Network
Despite their disappointing record, Lehigh has a chance to capture their conference best 12th Patriot League Championship and a bid into the FCS Playoffs with a win over Lafayette in college football’s most played rivalry. In a rivalry of this magnitude the cliché is always to “throw out the records” and in this case the saying is true. Despite both team’s having sub .500 records these are two of the top teams in what has been a rather weak year for Patriot League football. What makes this game so fascinating is how each team has arrived here. Lehigh’s high powered offense has lived up to their preseason billing but the defense (40.2 ppg allowed, 488 ypg allowed) has regressed. It is hard to fathom how the defense has gotten worse given how bad the unit has been the previous few years. Conversely, Lafayette’s season has been defined by an excellent defense and statistically (217 ypg, 123rd in FCS) the worst offense in the country. Overall, first year John Garrett has done a solid job creating any identity on defense for the program moving forward
If Lafayette is to crash the Lehigh championship party the defense will certainly be the reason why. The Leopard “D” has been especially lights out in league play (11.8 ppg). The strength has been the pass defense (8 pass TDs allowed) which is led by sure fire 1st Team All-PL CB Phillip Parham. It will be interesting to see which one of Lehigh’s dynamic wide receivers Parham spends most of his time covering. How the Leopard front 7 contains Lehigh’s Dominic Bragalone will likely determine which unit (LU O vs LC D) wins the battle. If Lafayette does have a weakness on defense it is their ability to stop the run (180.8 ypg allowed) which has to be a concern against one of the top running backs in FCS.
In order for Lehigh to notch their 3rd straight win over Lafayette the defense must continue their recent trend of solid play and Mayes can’t afford to turn the ball over. Should Lehigh’s defense continue to play like it has the last two weeks they will have no trouble holding Lafayette’s inept offense down. However, O’Malley has the best set of wide receivers Lehigh has faced in several weeks. If Lehigh’s defensive line can’t get pressure on the freshman signal caller the Leopards will make plays downfield. Keep an eye on DT Tyler Cavenas. The senior has been making huge plays on defense and special teams. The leaky Leopard offensive line will have their hands full with Cavenas.
This game has everything (minus sexy records) a football fan could want, arch-rivals, championship implications, strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness and inclement weather to spice things up. Lehigh is the better team but not by much. If the Lehigh defense can’t hold Lafayette to 17 or less points and they lose the turnover battle the Mountain Hawks are in trouble. This is John Garrett’s first taste of the rivalry but there’s no doubt he’s well versed in the importance of this game. He’ll have the Leopards well prepared and emotionally ready to play. Lehigh needs to match their intensity for 60 minutes and protect the ball in order to win. The Mountain Hawks should have just enough to continue their mastery of Lafayette this decade.
Prediction: Lehigh 20 Lafayette 13
This is it folks. The final weekend of the regular season. Pretty much regardless of what happens, NDSU and SDSU will be in the playoffs and YSU, SIU, MSU, and INSU will not. For UNI, USD, WIU, and ILSU, it’s likely most of them will be, but there are some crazy scenarios that could play out that could exclude some or all of them. They have one more chance to make themselves look good to the playoff committee before the final decision comes down.
As a preeminent wordsmith of the modern age once said:
“If you had one shot, or one opportunity, to seize everything you ever wanted, in one moment, would you capture it, or just let it slip…Yo”
I plan on being a bit more brief on my game rundowns this week. We’re to the point where, if you’ve kept up with the articles and pay attention to FCS (and MVFC) football, you’re pretty well aware of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. I’ll try to point out a few interesting bits, but I think most everyone is familiar with the Chris Streveler show, NDSU’s defense, or whatever the hell is going on over in Terre Haute.
Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.
For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings and all stats listed are only in MVFC play from here on out (unless otherwise stated).
So, here are the games this week:
11:00 AM – Missouri State (3-7, 2-5 MVFC) at Youngstown State (5-5, 3-4 MVFC)
12:00 PM – #2 North Dakota State (9-1, 6-1 MVFC) at #26 Illinois State (6-4, 4-3 MVFC)
1:00 PM – Southern Illinois (4-6, 2-5 MVFC) at #11 Western Illinois (7-3, 4-3 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #5 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-2 MVFC) at #15 South Dakota (7-3, 4-3 MVFC)
4:00 PM – Indiana State (0-10, 0-7 MVFC) at #17 Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.
6 MVFC teams ranked in the final regular-season Top 25 STATS poll…. https://t.co/9Wai1HWrak
— Valley Football (@ValleyFootball) November 13, 2017
Last Week:
History:
The Bears and Penguins have played 19 times starting in 1996. YSU holds the 14-5 series lead and last year’s meeting was a 65-20 YSU victory in Springfield, MO.
YSU’s once-promising season will get one final tally this weekend; a tally that will determine if the Penguins will have a winning season, or if the defending FCS Championship runners-up will finish with a losing record this year. Their strengths are in their pass defense, which is second in the conference, and their ability to move the ball on the ground with RB Tevin McCaster putting up nearly 89 ypg. The Penguin O-Line has allowed 33 sacks this season, which is the worst in the conference (by a significant margin), and on defense, they are also worst at getting sacks, only getting to opposing QBs a total of 9 times.
MSU, who was expected to be bad this season, mostly is, but has put together a few wins here or there to help separate themselves from the last place team, beating Indiana State by 39 and then Southern Illinois by 8 in back to back weekends. A win would equal last year’s 4-7 record. Missouri State has the 3rd best rushing offense in the conference and they’re roughly in the middle of the conference for their pass defense. The rest of their defense has been rather swiss cheese-like. They have one of the best kick return guys in the conference which can help with field position battles.
I think the two teams are actually fairly similar now…both decent running teams, both with good pass defenses. I think this is going to be a fairly low scoring “ground game”, although overall, I feel like the Penguins have a bit of an advantage with a (depending on who plays) decent running QB as well as a really good RB. In a matchup that has pretty much no bearing on the playoffs, I think Youngstown State gets the home victory by 7 points to close out their season with a winning record.
Last Week:
History:
The Bison and Redbirds have played 9 times starting in 2007, with NDSU having the 7-2 series lead. Last year’s meeting was a 31-10 NDSU victory at their Homecoming game and the matchup before that was the FCS Championship Game for the 2014 season and unofficial MVFC Championship game. NDSU won that one as well, 29-27.
NDSU is already in the playoffs, likely already a seed regardless of the results of this game, but they are looking to stay with a high seed so that they’re able to play the majority of their playoff games at home. Last weekend they came out angry after the previous week’s loss and demolished a good South Dakota team. NDSU has the best rushing offense in the conference, but is middle of the pack on their passing game. Like I said before, their defense is solid on pretty much all facets. They also win “in the trenches” where they are the best team in the conference at both not allowing sacks themselves and getting sacks on the opposition. The special teams can be a bit suspect at times though, with a “spotty” kicking game, and the 3rd lowest punt return average in the conference.
ILSU has their backs against the wall needing a win to make it into the playoffs. By most estimations, they’re in a situation where they win and they’re in, they lose and they’re out…so, you know…no pressure. They had an unexpected win over South Dakota a month ago, and last week took SDSU to OT (and very likely could have won if they’d been a little more agressive on play calling near the end of regulation). The Redbirds have the second best scoring defense in the conference and a pretty decent run game, with RB James Robinson putting up just under 100 ypg.
This could be a pretty close game, with the Redbirds fighting to keep their season alive. I think they’ll be able to keep it close, but unfortunately, I think they had their best chance last week against SDSU and they weren’t able to come away with the win. This game will be tougher, and I don’t think it’ll make it to OT. North Dakota State wins this one by 14 and hits the playoffs with one of the top few seeds.
Last Week:
History: The Salukis and Leathernecks have matched up 62 times going back to 1933. WIU leads the all-time series 35-23-4. Lately it’s been a rather “streaky” series with WIU winning 18 straight from 1984-2001, then SIU winning 9 straight from 2002-2010. Last year’s game was a 44-34 Saluki win in Carbondale that ended WIU’s playoff hopes.
Southern Illinois was rolling along with one of the better offenses in the conference, until their starting QB suffered a season-ending broken hand (throwing hand). Their replacement QB, former backup Safety Matt DeSomer, is very much a running QB, putting up less than 100 passing yards per game in the two games he’s played. In those two games, the Salukis lost to Missouri State and Youngstown State, both in Carbondale. He is helped by the SIU O-Line, who has only given up 8 sacks this season. SIU’s pass defense has been pretty decent, but they have trouble stopping the run…ahead of only INSU and MSU in their run defense. They also have a pretty solid punter and lead the conference in net punting average.
Last year, Western Illinois won 3 straight OOC with the 3rd being a FBS team, lost their first conference game against a team from the Mt. Rushmore state, had a close conference win, a win over Missouri State, and then a loss to NDSU to put them at 5-2 going into the final 4 weeks of the season.
This year, Western Illinois won 3 straight OOC with the 3rd being a FBS team, lost their first conference game against a team from the Mt. Rushmore state, had a close conference win, a win over Missouri State, and then a loss to NDSU to put them at 5-2 going into the final 4 weeks of the season…(notice a trend?)
In both cases, WIU needed two more wins to get them into playoff contention. Last year, they went 1-3 in those final 4 weeks, 6-5 for the season and missed the playoffs. This is where the parallels end…this year, WIU has gone 2-1 in 3 of those 4 and have a good chance at 3-1 to finish 8-3 to get into the playoffs. Even with a loss, WIU has a very good chance at still getting in at 7-4. The Leathernecks have a very balanced offense with the top yardage receiver in the conference, a couple of solid RBs, and an experience QB who can take advantage of all of his weapons. Because of this they have the second-best passing offense in the conference. On defense, the ability to defend passes has been suspect, although significantly better than last year (2016 – 297.4 ypg allowed overall, 120th in the FCS; 2017 – 239.4 ypg allowed overall, 85th in the FCS). They do have a very good run defense headlined by the #1 tackler in the FCS, LB Brett Taylor. WIU is the best team in the MVFC at returning punts and is #3 at returning kickoffs. They are a perfect 6-6 on FGs this season, but the punting game is the worst in the conference.
This game is a matchup of the two most penalized teams in the MVFC…SIU with 47 penalties for 62.4 ypg and WIU with 64 penalties for 74.6 ypg. SIU’s current QB is a good runner, but WIU has a good run defense, so it’ll be interesting to see which breaks first in that matchup. Personally, I feel like WIU should be able to handle SIU’s run game, and the current forecast is windy (in the 20 mph range with gusts up to ~40), which should really knock down the passing game. WIU is currently on a streak of 6-straight quarters of shutout football, and while I don’t think it’ll extend all the way to the end of this game, WIU should be able to do enough to stop the Salukis to come away with a victory by about 12 points.
Last Week:
History: The Jackrabbits and Coyotes have faced off 109 times in their histories, with SDSU having the 52-50-7 advantage. South Dakota State is riding an 8-game win streak over South Dakota, with last year’s matchup being a 28-21 victory in Brookings.
South Dakota State started the season well, although had a close game against Montana State early on. Youngstown State and Northern Iowa handed them their only losses of the season, with the highlight so far being a 33-21 win over rival (and highly ranked) NDSU. They are solidly in the hunt for a playoff seed at this point. The Jackrabbits have the top scoring offense in the conference, putting up points at a rate of over 35 points per game with two legit NFL prospects in TE Dallas Goedert and WR Jake Wieneke. Both of those guys are actually having down years as compared to last year, but are still doing well enough, obviously. They also have the best pass defense in the country, holding opponents to under 170 ypg through the air and led by LB Christian “oh god we have to deal with him for two more years” Rozeboom.
South Dakota was having a great season, winning their first 6 straight, including beating a (not great) Bowling Green team. Illinois State handed them their first loss, and then a dominant win over SIU got them to 7-1, but also severely banged up their QB Chris Streveler, who is a HUGE part of their offense (more so than most other team’s QBs). They then proceeded to lose their next two against a surging UNI and the always-dominant NDSU Bison. Their last game is also a tough one, but one they need to win to be solidly considered for a playoff spot. They put up the most yards of any MVFC team…nearly 500 ypg, with around 325 ypg of that coming through the air via Streveler. The Coyote defense has been roughly in the middle of the pack in most areas, but has been hurt by the legal troubles of a few of their defensive players (suspended from the team), so that’s taken somewhat of a hit the last few games.
On their best day, I think both teams are pretty evenly matched. Two very good offenses against decent but not stellar defenses would generally be a pretty close and high-scoring affair. However, USD with their banged-up Streveler and down a few defensive players is going in the underdog. The game is at USD’s DakotaDome though, and I feel like the Coyotes have a bit more to play for (SDSU for a playoff seed, USD for a playoff spot), so that helps. Still, I think SDSU has a little bit of an advantage and will come away with a narrow victory of roughly 4 points.
Last Week:
History: The Sycamores and Panthers have played 31 times dating back to 1983. UNI has a distinct series advantage of 26-5. Last year’s meeting was a 39-6 Panther win.
Despite close losses to Eastern Illinois (by 2 points in the final seconds of the game) and Liberty (by 1 point after a last-second missed FG), Indiana State has not been able to put anything in the win column this season. If anything, they seem to be getting worse as the season progresses, losing by only 11 to a decent Illinois State team, but by an average of 42 points in their last three games against a decent WIU team, a mediocre YSU team, and a pretty bad MSU team. Despite having some talent in certain spots, they are last in the conference in all major offensive and defensive categories. RB LeMonte Booker is solid at 74 ypg and WR/RS Bob Pugh is second in the conference in all-purpose yards, being a decent WR as well as a quality kick returner.
Northern Iowa had something of a rough start to the season, going 2-1 OOC with their one win being in OT at home, against Cal Poly. Things weren’t looking any better after a loss to WIU brought them to 2-3 on the season, but then a newfound run game and some modifications to the defensive scheme helped the Panthers to strong wins over some good teams (SDSU and USD mostly) and find themselves needing one more win to reach 7-4 and be heavily considered for a playoff at-large spot. UNI could be rolling with a backup QB after QB Eli Dunne suffered a concussion last weekend (Dunne is listed as “questionable”). Offensively, they haven’t been great, recording the second-fewest number of yards in conference games and the strength has been the passing game, so that could be an issue in this game. On the other side of the ball, UNI has the top run defense in the MVFC with standout LB Rickey Neal leading the conference in tackles for loss (13 vs #2’s 9, and with 12 of them solo tackles) and not surprisingly…sacks (8.5 total, 8 solo). UNI also has the top pass defender in the conference with DB Elijah Campbell batting down 2.14 per game with 4 INTs. They are also a perfect 10/10 on FGs.
So, UNI’s offense might be down a bit on Saturday, however their defense has been really exceptional against some pretty high scoring teams. INSU is not a high-scoring team. I think the Sycamores will struggle to get points on the board this game, and while the Panther offense might not put up the 42 points that have been averaged against them in the last few games, I think they’ll get close. UNI, with their backup QB, should take this one by about 30 points, which should punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Lance & Kris go over their list of predicted wins and thus who they believe is gonna lock up some playoff spots. What do they think for the automatic bids? They speak about this scenario:
Auto bids/locks:
Big Sky: SUU, Weber
Big South: Kennesaw State, Monmouth
CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA, SHSU
Then finally a list of who they think will get in and who they think will get left out.
Win and in:
Big Sky: NAU
CAA: UD, UNH
MVFC: UNI, WIU,
SoCon: Furman OR Samford
SLC: UCA, SHSU
The big, bad bubble:
Big Sky: EWU, Montana, Sac State
MVFC: ISU, USD
Socon: Furman OR Samford
Big South: Monmouth OR Kennesaw
SLC: Nichols, McNeese
The boys go over a couple of games that are going to have a big bearing on what happens Sunday as well.
James Madison @ Elon
Monmouth @ Kennesaw State
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah
South Dakota State @ South Dakota
Furman @ Samford
Give the fellers a listen and see if you agree with what they are bringing to the table this week.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
The penultimate weekend of the 2017 Patriot League football season finally produced some clarity in the championship race. Colgate’s shutout win over Lafayette kept the Raiders in prime position for at least a share of the title. The Leopards dream of a ring ended but they can still be a major factor in the championship picture with a win over Lehigh. That’s because the Mountain Hawks kept control of their destiny with an impressive win over Holy Cross. All Lehigh has to do now is beat their arch rival to punch a ticket back to the playoffs. The remaining game last week saw Bucknell keep their dream of a winning season alive with a very blue collar like performance against Georgetown.
Bucknell 12 Georgetown 0
Bucknell’s (5-5, 2-3) shutout win (first since 2015) over Georgetown (1-9, 0-5) did not disappoint on the ugly meter. The combination of two poor offenses and two respectable defenses resulted in a slugfest that was slightly less ugly than Georgetown’s 7-0 loss to Lafayette the previous week. Mercifully, both offenses were able to climb over the 200 yard mark (GU 214, BU 297) in this game. After missing time this season, running back Joey DeFloria had a solid outing (23 carries 97 yards) on his Senior Day. Overall, the Bison rushing attack accounted for 171 of their 297 total yards. This is the second week in a row the Bison have had success running the ball. That has to be a wonderful sight for Coach Susan who has watched the offense struggle for much of the year due to the inability to run the ball. Another strong performance from DeFloria and Freshnock will be needed against Fordham if the Bison want to finish their 2017 campaign with a winning record.
Both defenses came out and dominated the play in the first half. The only points (John Burdick 26 yard FG) during the first 30 minutes of play were a result of Georgetown fumbling a punt return deep in their own territory. Burdick’s 21 yard chip shot with 7:17 remaining in the 3rd quarter pushed the Bison lead to 6-0. Bucknell would be able to extend their lead to two possessions the next time the touched the ball on offense. John Chiarolanzio (15-27 126 yards 1 TD) hit Marcus Ademilola for a 36 yard TD strike to give Bucknell a 12 point lead. Head Coach Joe Susan elected to go for 2 to extend the lead to 14 but the attempt failed.
The Hoya offense continues to be among the very worst in the country. The unit was shut out for the second straight week. It was also the second game in a row that quarterback Gunther Johnson (11-29 79 yards 1INT) failed to break the 100 yard barrier passing the ball. The sophomore did however lead the team with 131 yards rushing.
Up Next: Bucknell will try to secure a winning season against Fordham in the Bronx. Georgetown returns to D.C. to close out the 2017 season against red hot Colgate.
Lehigh 34 Holy Cross 21
Lehigh (4-6, 4-1) was able get key contributions from all 3 phases in a hugely important 13 point win over Holy Cross (4-7, 3-3). With the victory over the Crusaders, Lehigh now needs to beat arch rival Lafayette to capture at least a share of the Patriot League Title and the automatic bid into the playoffs. The Leopards were more-or-less eliminated from title contention with their 27-0 loss to Colgate. After a strong performance against Bucknell last week, Lehigh put forth an even better showing against the Crusaders on a cold afternoon at Goodman Stadium. The Mountain Hawk’s special teams got things started with blocked punt deep in Holy Cross territory early in the game then the offense and defense got in the act. Lehigh running back Dom Bragalone (20 carries 201 yards 4 TDs) continued his torrid play to carry the “O” in the victory. On defense it was senior captain Tyer Cavenas who led the spirited effort (397 yards allowed). Cavenas spent much of the afternoon harassing Holy Cross quarterback Peter Pujals. He also made a major impact on special teams for the second week in a row.
Cavenas’s blocked punt early in the 1st quarter set the Mountain Hawk offense up at the Crusader 6 yard line. It only took Lehigh one play to find paydirt. Bragalone powered his way in to give Lehigh a 7-0 lead with 10:08 remaining in the opening quarter. On Lehigh’s next possession, Bragalone scored from 7 yards out to cap an 8 play 81 yard drive and extend the Lehigh advantage to 14-0. Holy Cross cut the deficit to 7 when Pujals (18-36 276 yards 2 TDs) hit Blaise Bell for a 28 yard TD strike on a 4th and 8 play. The score would remain 14-7 until Lehigh’s Ed Mish connected on a 23 yard FG with 4:59 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Bragalone and Mish would each add a TD and FG respectively to give Lehigh a commanding 27-7 lead midway through the 4th quarter.
Holy Cross season concluded with the loss and now the focus in Worcester turns to the coaching search. It will be interesting to see what direction Athletic Director Nate Pine goes in.
Up Next: Lehigh hosts Lafayette in the 153rd version of college football’s “Most Played Rivalry”. A win would secure Lehigh at least a share of their 12th Patriot League Championship. Holy Cross’s season concludes with a 4-7 overall record and 3-3 league mark. The highlight of the Crusader season came way back on September when they throttled then Top 10 New Hampshire 51-26.
Colgate 27 Lafayette 0
Colgate (6-4, 4-1) kept their Patriot League Title hopes alive by blanking the Leopards (3-7, 3-2) 27-0 in Easton. It was the first shutout posted by the Raiders since they defeated Georgetown 19-0 in 2014. Colgate’s defense held the Leopards to 35 yards rushing and intercepted Sean O’Malley 3 times in the victory. One of the interceptions was pick sixed by Nick Ioanilli. The Raider “D” also came up with three big 4th down stops in a row in the second half when Lafayette had driven the ball into Colgate territory.
The Raider defense needed a strong performance because Grant Breneman (5-17 92 yards 1 INT) and the rest of the “O” had their worst outing in league play. A big reason for their struggles was a Lafayette defense that continues to play a very high level. It’s the main reason the Leopards were playing a November game against Colgate with major title implications on the line. If the Lafayette offense was simply mediocre they may very well be playing Lehigh for the championship this week instead of being relegated to spoiler status.
Both defenses controlled the first 18+ minutes of action. Colgate was finally able to break the scoring ice early in the 2nd quarter with a brisk 3 play 61 yard TD drive. Owen Rockett capped the drive by scoring from 17 yards out on a razzle-dazzle double reverse. Colgate extended their lead to 14-0 the next time their offense touched the ball. This time it was Breneman powering in from a yard out for the score. Two (24 & 37 yards) Chris Puzzi field goals in the 3rd quarter pushed the lead to 20-0. Then came Ioanilli’s 33 yard pick six to put the icing on the cake.
Up Next: Colgate will try to nail down at least a share of the league title with a win over Georgetown in our nation’s capital. Lafayette makes the 10 mile trek to Goodman Stadium to take on Lehigh for the 153rd time.
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