AGS Poll: Week 12 Top 25 Results

Selection Sunday 2017 is here and with that comes the final regular season release of the AGS Poll. There wasn’t much movement at the top this week but towards the middle and bottom there was a figurative earthquake with 8 of the 11 teams ranked between #12 and #22 sustaining losses to end their regular season. The top 5 remained unchanged as James Madison went wire-to-wire as #1 in the regular season picking up all 64 first place votes after their undefeated regular season. North Dakota State, Central Arkansas, Jacksonville State, and South Dakota State all maintained their positions at #2-#5 after holding serve this week with wins.

As for teams moving up Samford jumped 5 spots to #13 after snapping Furman’s 7 game win streak. Kennesaw St was the biggest riser of the week jumping 7 spots to #17 after dominating Monmouth in the de facto Big South championship game. McNeese and Eastern Washington took advantage of teams in front of them losing to move up 4 and 5 spots to #19 and #20, respectively, despite winning games they were expected to win. Yale made their first appearance, and also the first appearance by an Ivy League team, in the top 25 this year jumping 5 spots to come in at #25 after finishing their season 9-1.

As for the teams that went the other way Furman dropped 4 spots to #18 after dropping their aforementioned game against Samford. Northern Arizona dropped 5 spots to #21 following their loss to Southern Utah. Several bubble teams like South Dakota, Furman, Northern Arizona, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Monmouth didn’t drop too far due to the teams around them all losing as the furthest any of those teams dropped was 3 spots. Montana dropped out of the top 25 after losing their final regular season game to in-state rival Montana State.

The CAA and MVFC led the way in terms of conference representation each placing 5 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the Big Sky with 4, the Southland and SOCON with 3 each, and the Big South with 2 teams in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1600  64
2 North Dakota State Bison 1512
3 Central Arkansas Bears 1449
4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1399
5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1370
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1227
7 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1208
8 Wofford Terriers 1137
9 Stony Brook Seawolves 1032
10 Weber State Wildcats 1019
11 Western Illinois Leathernecks 995
12 North Carolina A&T Aggies 799
13 Samford Bulldogs 795
14 Northern Iowa Panthers 770
15 Elon Phoenix 675
16 South Dakota Coyotes 593
17 Kennessaw State Owls 547
18 Furman Paladins 472
19 McNeese State Cowboys 441
20 Eastern Washington Eagles 407
21 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 332
22 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 185
23 New Hampshire Wildcats 129
24 Monmouth Hawks 113
25 Yale Bulldogs 104
ORV:
26 Grambling State Tigers 102
27 Sacramento State Hornets 83
28 Austin Peay Governors 71
29 Montana Grizzlies 68
30 Illinois State Redbirds 58
31 Nicholls State Colonels 39
32 Richmond Spiders 20
33 Western Carolina Catamounts 18
34 Colgate Raiders 17
35 Central Connecticut State Blue Devils 7
36 Youngstown State Penguins 4
37 San Diego Toreros 2
38 Columbia Lions 1

 

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?199205-AGS-Poll-Results-WEEK-12-SELECTION-SUNDAY-POLL

NOTE: The FCS Selection Show begins at 11AM ET on ESPNU. Tune in to see if the AGS Poll can maintain it’s position as the top FCS poll in the nation in terms of projecting playoff teams and playoff seeds.

Patriot League: Week 12 Preview

The final week is upon us! Ferris Bueller’s prophetic statement regarding the concept of life and time certainly applies to football season! It feels like if you blink you miss it! Not everything has been pretty to watch this season in the Patriot League but in some ways that’s the “beauty” of the league. With a championship still up for grabs and #153 on tap this weekend might prove to be the best of the year!

Bucknell (5-5, 2-3) at Fordham (3-7, 2-3) – Nov. 18th 12 PM Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Bucknell will try to nail down their first winning season since 2014 as they head to the Big Apple to take on Fordham. Not only will Bucknell be looking to finish above .500, they’ll also be trying to snap a 4 game losing streak against Fordham. The Bison last defeated Fordham in 2012 when they snuck past the Rams 27-24. In order for Bucknell to close out the season on a positive note the ground attack must produce like it has the last two weeks. For much of 2017 the combo of DeFloria (401 yards) and Freshnock (513 yards) were combining for less than 80 yards a game which is a big reason why the Bison failed to seriously challenge for the league title. John Chiarolanzio is once against expected to get the start at quarterback. If the Bison want to take a step forward in 2018 they’ll need better production from the offensive line and the quarterback position.

To call Fordham’s season a disappointment would be a rather significant understatement. Before the season started the Rams seemed poised to be a Top 25 team and return to the FCS Playoffs. They returned arguably the greatest running back in school history and one of the best ever in FCS, in Chase Edmonds (392 yards 3 TDs) as well as a talented, veteran quarterback (Kevin Anderson) to lead the offense. The defense had been an issue in recent years but the unit returned quite a bit of experience from an 8 win team. As it turned it they got steamrolled by Army on opening night, Edmonds got hurt in week 2, the defense went into the tank and they were never able to recover. Now all that’s left is to make sure Edmonds, Anderson, Adeyeye, Coyle and the rest of the seniors that were brought in by Joe Moorhead finish out their careers with one final win at home.

Both teams should enter this game motivated. Fordham is coming off a late season bye so they’ll be rested and eager to send the seniors off in style. Bucknell obviously wants to finish with a 6-5 record and get over the Fordham hump. Assuming that Kevin Anderson plays, which is expected, Fordham has the advantage on offense. Overall, Bucknell’s defense has been pretty good all year (22.9 ppg allowed) but they weren’t immune to some ugliness at times. Fordham’s offensive trio of Anderson, Edmonds and Longi should be able to make just enough plays to eke out a 4th and final win.

Prediction: Fordham 24 Bucknell 20

Colgate (6-4, 4-1) at Georgetown (1-9, 0-5) – Nov. 18th 1 PM Cooper Field Washington D.C.

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Colgate takes the long 7 hour bus ride to our nation’s capital to take on the hapless Hoyas in what is an extremely important game for the Raiders. A Colgate win guarantees them at least a share of their 9th Patriot League Title. If Lafayette is able to beat Lehigh, Colgate would then earn the outright league title and the automatic bid to the FCS Playoffs. Coach Hunt has done an excellent job getting this year’s team to improve each and every week; especially the offense. The “O” has made tremendous strides under freshman quarterback Grant Breneman (1,457 yards 15 TDs 4 INTs, 369 yards rushing 6 TDs). Hunt made the bold decision to bench Carmine Scarfone in favor of Breneman after only 2 games. As it’s turned out, Colgate might have found their next Ryan Vena in Breneman. The defense has been quite tough as well despite playing the first month of the season without All-American Rush End Pat Afriyie. Outside of two bad outings against Furman and Lehigh, the “D” has played at a championship level.

Georgetown enters this game on the complete opposite side of the spectrum from Colgate. The Hoyas have not won since their season opener against Campbell. Georgetown is also riding a 14 game Patriot League losing streak that dates back to 17-9 win over Bucknell on 10/24/15. Needless to say, the once proud Georgetown football program is struggling and there’s very little reason for optimism without more of a commitment from the administration. Coach Sgarlatta has done a tremendous job getting his team to compete week in and week out. The Hoyas are rarely blown out in league play because they continue to play tough, physical defense. However, the dearth of playmakers year after year on offense has incapacitated the offense (252 ypg 118th in FCS/12.8 ppg 118th in FCS). Until the Hoyas are able to find a way to land talented skill position players the losing is going to continue.

On paper the only way Colgate loses this game is if they literally don’t show up. The Raiders have been playing with such focus and precision in recent weeks that it’s impossible to see them being the team that breaks the Hoyas dubious losing streaks. Breneman and company simply must protect the ball on offense. The Raider special teams can’t allow any big plays either. Georgetown’s defense will make the Raider offense work but there’s no way the Hoyas can score enough to win without help. The Hoyas will avoid being shutout 3 straight games to conclude the season but that’s as good as the moral victory will get.

If Colgate does make the playoffs they could be a major headache with the right matchup. If not, they still have an excellent core that seems capable of big things in 2018.

Prediction: Colgate 24 Georgetown 3

#153 Lafayette (3-7, 3-2) at Lehigh (4-6, 4-1) – Nov. 18th 12:30 PM Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Despite their disappointing record, Lehigh has a chance to capture their conference best 12th Patriot League Championship and a bid into the FCS Playoffs with a win over Lafayette in college football’s most played rivalry. In a rivalry of this magnitude the cliché is always to “throw out the records” and in this case the saying is true. Despite both team’s having sub .500 records these are two of the top teams in what has been a rather weak year for Patriot League football. What makes this game so fascinating is how each team has arrived here. Lehigh’s high powered offense has lived up to their preseason billing but the defense (40.2 ppg allowed, 488 ypg allowed) has regressed. It is hard to fathom how the defense has gotten worse given how bad the unit has been the previous few years. Conversely, Lafayette’s season has been defined by an excellent defense and statistically (217 ypg, 123rd in FCS) the worst offense in the country. Overall, first year John Garrett has done a solid job creating any identity on defense for the program moving forward

If Lafayette is to crash the Lehigh championship party the defense will certainly be the reason why. The Leopard “D” has been especially lights out in league play (11.8 ppg). The strength has been the pass defense (8 pass TDs allowed) which is led by sure fire 1st Team All-PL CB Phillip Parham. It will be interesting to see which one of Lehigh’s dynamic wide receivers Parham spends most of his time covering. How the Leopard front 7 contains Lehigh’s Dominic Bragalone will likely determine which unit (LU O vs LC D) wins the battle. If Lafayette does have a weakness on defense it is their ability to stop the run (180.8 ypg allowed) which has to be a concern against one of the top running backs in FCS.

In order for Lehigh to notch their 3rd straight win over Lafayette the defense must continue their recent trend of solid play and Mayes can’t afford to turn the ball over. Should Lehigh’s defense continue to play like it has the last two weeks they will have no trouble holding Lafayette’s inept offense down. However, O’Malley has the best set of wide receivers Lehigh has faced in several weeks. If Lehigh’s defensive line can’t get pressure on the freshman signal caller the Leopards will make plays downfield. Keep an eye on DT Tyler Cavenas. The senior has been making huge plays on defense and special teams. The leaky Leopard offensive line will have their hands full with Cavenas.

This game has everything (minus sexy records) a football fan could want, arch-rivals, championship implications, strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness and inclement weather to spice things up. Lehigh is the better team but not by much. If the Lehigh defense can’t hold Lafayette to 17 or less points and they lose the turnover battle the Mountain Hawks are in trouble. This is John Garrett’s first taste of the rivalry but there’s no doubt he’s well versed in the importance of this game. He’ll have the Leopards well prepared and emotionally ready to play. Lehigh needs to match their intensity for 60 minutes and protect the ball in order to win. The Mountain Hawks should have just enough to continue their mastery of Lafayette this decade.

Prediction: Lehigh 20 Lafayette 13

MVFC – Week 12 Preview

MVFC LogoThis is it folks. The final weekend of the regular season. Pretty much regardless of what happens, NDSU and SDSU will be in the playoffs and YSU, SIU, MSU, and INSU will not. For UNI, USD, WIU, and ILSU, it’s likely most of them will be, but there are some crazy scenarios that could play out that could exclude some or all of them. They have one more chance to make themselves look good to the playoff committee before the final decision comes down.
As a preeminent wordsmith of the modern age once said:

“If you had one shot, or one opportunity, to seize everything you ever wanted, in one moment, would you capture it, or just let it slip…Yo”

I plan on being a bit more brief on my game rundowns this week. We’re to the point where, if you’ve kept up with the articles and pay attention to FCS (and MVFC) football, you’re pretty well aware of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. I’ll try to point out a few interesting bits, but I think most everyone is familiar with the Chris Streveler show, NDSU’s defense, or whatever the hell is going on over in Terre Haute.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings and all stats listed are only in MVFC play from here on out (unless otherwise stated).

So, here are the games this week:
11:00 AM – Missouri State (3-7, 2-5 MVFC) at Youngstown State (5-5, 3-4 MVFC)
12:00 PM – #2 North Dakota State (9-1, 6-1 MVFC) at #26 Illinois State (6-4, 4-3 MVFC)
1:00 PM – Southern Illinois (4-6, 2-5 MVFC) at #11 Western Illinois (7-3, 4-3 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #5 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-2 MVFC) at #15 South Dakota (7-3, 4-3 MVFC)
4:00 PM – Indiana State (0-10, 0-7 MVFC) at #17 Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

Missouri State at Youngstown State

Last Week:

  • Missouri State lost to Northern Iowa, 25-10
  • Youngstown State won at Southern Illinois, 28-20

History:
The Bears and Penguins have played 19 times starting in 1996. YSU holds the 14-5 series lead and last year’s meeting was a 65-20 YSU victory in Springfield, MO.

YSU’s once-promising season will get one final tally this weekend; a tally that will determine if the Penguins will have a winning season, or if the defending FCS Championship runners-up will finish with a losing record this year. Their strengths are in their pass defense, which is second in the conference, and their ability to move the ball on the ground with RB Tevin McCaster putting up nearly 89 ypg. The Penguin O-Line has allowed 33 sacks this season, which is the worst in the conference (by a significant margin), and on defense, they are also worst at getting sacks, only getting to opposing QBs a total of 9 times.

MSU, who was expected to be bad this season, mostly is, but has put together a few wins here or there to help separate themselves from the last place team, beating Indiana State by 39 and then Southern Illinois by 8 in back to back weekends. A win would equal last year’s 4-7 record. Missouri State has the 3rd best rushing offense in the conference and they’re roughly in the middle of the conference for their pass defense. The rest of their defense has been rather swiss cheese-like. They have one of the best kick return guys in the conference which can help with field position battles.

I think the two teams are actually fairly similar now…both decent running teams, both with good pass defenses. I think this is going to be a fairly low scoring “ground game”, although overall, I feel like the Penguins have a bit of an advantage with a (depending on who plays) decent running QB as well as a really good RB. In a matchup that has pretty much no bearing on the playoffs, I think Youngstown State gets the home victory by 7 points to close out their season with a winning record.

#2 North Dakota State at #26 Illinois State

Last Week:

  • North Dakota State beat South Dakota, 49-14
  • Illinois State lost at South Dakota State, 27-24 in OT

History:
The Bison and Redbirds have played 9 times starting in 2007, with NDSU having the 7-2 series lead. Last year’s meeting was a 31-10 NDSU victory at their Homecoming game and the matchup before that was the FCS Championship Game for the 2014 season and unofficial MVFC Championship game. NDSU won that one as well, 29-27.

NDSU is already in the playoffs, likely already a seed regardless of the results of this game, but they are looking to stay with a high seed so that they’re able to play the majority of their playoff games at home. Last weekend they came out angry after the previous week’s loss and demolished a good South Dakota team. NDSU has the best rushing offense in the conference, but is middle of the pack on their passing game. Like I said before, their defense is solid on pretty much all facets. They also win “in the trenches” where they are the best team in the conference at both not allowing sacks themselves and getting sacks on the opposition. The special teams can be a bit suspect at times though, with a “spotty” kicking game, and the 3rd lowest punt return average in the conference.

ILSU has their backs against the wall needing a win to make it into the playoffs. By most estimations, they’re in a situation where they win and they’re in, they lose and they’re out…so, you know…no pressure. They had an unexpected win over South Dakota a month ago, and last week took SDSU to OT (and very likely could have won if they’d been a little more agressive on play calling near the end of regulation). The Redbirds have the second best scoring defense in the conference and a pretty decent run game, with RB James Robinson putting up just under 100 ypg.

This could be a pretty close game, with the Redbirds fighting to keep their season alive. I think they’ll be able to keep it close, but unfortunately, I think they had their best chance last week against SDSU and they weren’t able to come away with the win. This game will be tougher, and I don’t think it’ll make it to OT. North Dakota State wins this one by 14 and hits the playoffs with one of the top few seeds.

Southern Illinois at #11 Western Illinois

Last Week:

  • Southern Illinois lost to Youngstown State, 28-20
  • Western Illinois won at Indiana State, 45-0

History: The Salukis and Leathernecks have matched up 62 times going back to 1933. WIU leads the all-time series 35-23-4. Lately it’s been a rather “streaky” series with WIU winning 18 straight from 1984-2001, then SIU winning 9 straight from 2002-2010. Last year’s game was a 44-34 Saluki win in Carbondale that ended WIU’s playoff hopes.

Southern Illinois was rolling along with one of the better offenses in the conference, until their starting QB suffered a season-ending broken hand (throwing hand). Their replacement QB, former backup Safety Matt DeSomer, is very much a running QB, putting up less than 100 passing yards per game in the two games he’s played. In those two games, the Salukis lost to Missouri State and Youngstown State, both in Carbondale. He is helped by the SIU O-Line, who has only given up 8 sacks this season. SIU’s pass defense has been pretty decent, but they have trouble stopping the run…ahead of only INSU and MSU in their run defense. They also have a pretty solid punter and lead the conference in net punting average.

Last year, Western Illinois won 3 straight OOC with the 3rd being a FBS team, lost their first conference game against a team from the Mt. Rushmore state, had a close conference win, a win over Missouri State, and then a loss to NDSU to put them at 5-2 going into the final 4 weeks of the season.
This year, Western Illinois won 3 straight OOC with the 3rd being a FBS team, lost their first conference game against a team from the Mt. Rushmore state, had a close conference win, a win over Missouri State, and then a loss to NDSU to put them at 5-2 going into the final 4 weeks of the season…(notice a trend?)
In both cases, WIU needed two more wins to get them into playoff contention. Last year, they went 1-3 in those final 4 weeks, 6-5 for the season and missed the playoffs. This is where the parallels end…this year, WIU has gone 2-1 in 3 of those 4 and have a good chance at 3-1 to finish 8-3 to get into the playoffs. Even with a loss, WIU has a very good chance at still getting in at 7-4. The Leathernecks have a very balanced offense with the top yardage receiver in the conference, a couple of solid RBs, and an experience QB who can take advantage of all of his weapons. Because of this they have the second-best passing offense in the conference. On defense, the ability to defend passes has been suspect, although significantly better than last year (2016 – 297.4 ypg allowed overall, 120th in the FCS; 2017 – 239.4 ypg allowed overall, 85th in the FCS). They do have a very good run defense headlined by the #1 tackler in the FCS, LB Brett Taylor. WIU is the best team in the MVFC at returning punts and is #3 at returning kickoffs. They are a perfect 6-6 on FGs this season, but the punting game is the worst in the conference.

This game is a matchup of the two most penalized teams in the MVFC…SIU with 47 penalties for 62.4 ypg and WIU with 64 penalties for 74.6 ypg. SIU’s current QB is a good runner, but WIU has a good run defense, so it’ll be interesting to see which breaks first in that matchup. Personally, I feel like WIU should be able to handle SIU’s run game, and the current forecast is windy (in the 20 mph range with gusts up to ~40), which should really knock down the passing game. WIU is currently on a streak of 6-straight quarters of shutout football, and while I don’t think it’ll extend all the way to the end of this game, WIU should be able to do enough to stop the Salukis to come away with a victory by about 12 points.

#5 South Dakota State at #15 South Dakota

Last Week:

  • South Dakota State beat Illinois State, 27-24 in OT
  • South Dakota lost at North Dakota State, 49-14

History: The Jackrabbits and Coyotes have faced off 109 times in their histories, with SDSU having the 52-50-7 advantage. South Dakota State is riding an 8-game win streak over South Dakota, with last year’s matchup being a 28-21 victory in Brookings.

South Dakota State started the season well, although had a close game against Montana State early on. Youngstown State and Northern Iowa handed them their only losses of the season, with the highlight so far being a 33-21 win over rival (and highly ranked) NDSU. They are solidly in the hunt for a playoff seed at this point. The Jackrabbits have the top scoring offense in the conference, putting up points at a rate of over 35 points per game with two legit NFL prospects in TE Dallas Goedert and WR Jake Wieneke. Both of those guys are actually having down years as compared to last year, but are still doing well enough, obviously. They also have the best pass defense in the country, holding opponents to under 170 ypg through the air and led by LB Christian “oh god we have to deal with him for two more years” Rozeboom.

South Dakota was having a great season, winning their first 6 straight, including beating a (not great) Bowling Green team. Illinois State handed them their first loss, and then a dominant win over SIU got them to 7-1, but also severely banged up their QB Chris Streveler, who is a HUGE part of their offense (more so than most other team’s QBs). They then proceeded to lose their next two against a surging UNI and the always-dominant NDSU Bison. Their last game is also a tough one, but one they need to win to be solidly considered for a playoff spot. They put up the most yards of any MVFC team…nearly 500 ypg, with around 325 ypg of that coming through the air via Streveler. The Coyote defense has been roughly in the middle of the pack in most areas, but has been hurt by the legal troubles of a few of their defensive players (suspended from the team), so that’s taken somewhat of a hit the last few games.

On their best day, I think both teams are pretty evenly matched. Two very good offenses against decent but not stellar defenses would generally be a pretty close and high-scoring affair. However, USD with their banged-up Streveler and down a few defensive players is going in the underdog. The game is at USD’s DakotaDome though, and I feel like the Coyotes have a bit more to play for (SDSU for a playoff seed, USD for a playoff spot), so that helps. Still, I think SDSU has a little bit of an advantage and will come away with a narrow victory of roughly 4 points.

Indiana State at #17 Northern Iowa

Last Week:

  • Indiana State lost to Western Illinois, 45-0
  • Northern Iowa won at Missouri State, 25-10

History: The Sycamores and Panthers have played 31 times dating back to 1983. UNI has a distinct series advantage of 26-5. Last year’s meeting was a 39-6 Panther win.

Despite close losses to Eastern Illinois (by 2 points in the final seconds of the game) and Liberty (by 1 point after a last-second missed FG), Indiana State has not been able to put anything in the win column this season. If anything, they seem to be getting worse as the season progresses, losing by only 11 to a decent Illinois State team, but by an average of 42 points in their last three games against a decent WIU team, a mediocre YSU team, and a pretty bad MSU team. Despite having some talent in certain spots, they are last in the conference in all major offensive and defensive categories. RB LeMonte Booker is solid at 74 ypg and WR/RS Bob Pugh is second in the conference in all-purpose yards, being a decent WR as well as a quality kick returner.

Northern Iowa had something of a rough start to the season, going 2-1 OOC with their one win being in OT at home, against Cal Poly. Things weren’t looking any better after a loss to WIU brought them to 2-3 on the season, but then a newfound run game and some modifications to the defensive scheme helped the Panthers to strong wins over some good teams (SDSU and USD mostly) and find themselves needing one more win to reach 7-4 and be heavily considered for a playoff at-large spot. UNI could be rolling with a backup QB after QB Eli Dunne suffered a concussion last weekend (Dunne is listed as “questionable”). Offensively, they haven’t been great, recording the second-fewest number of yards in conference games and the strength has been the passing game, so that could be an issue in this game. On the other side of the ball, UNI has the top run defense in the MVFC with standout LB Rickey Neal leading the conference in tackles for loss (13 vs #2’s 9, and with 12 of them solo tackles) and not surprisingly…sacks (8.5 total, 8 solo). UNI also has the top pass defender in the conference with DB Elijah Campbell batting down 2.14 per game with 4 INTs. They are also a perfect 10/10 on FGs.

So, UNI’s offense might be down a bit on Saturday, however their defense has been really exceptional against some pretty high scoring teams. INSU is not a high-scoring team. I think the Sycamores will struggle to get points on the board this game, and while the Panther offense might not put up the 42 points that have been averaged against them in the last few games, I think they’ll get close. UNI, with their backup QB, should take this one by about 30 points, which should punch their ticket to the playoffs.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1114 – WEEK 12 PREVIEW

Lance & Kris go over their list of predicted wins and thus who they believe is gonna lock up some playoff spots.  What do they think for the automatic bids?  They speak about this scenario:

Auto bids/locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber

Big South: Kennesaw State, Monmouth

CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon

MVFC: NDSU, SDSU

NEC: CCSU

OVC: JSU

Patriot: Lehigh

Pioneer: San Diego

SoCon: Wofford

SLC: UCA, SHSU

Then finally a list of who they think will get in and who they think will get left out.

Win and in:

Big Sky: NAU

CAA: UD, UNH

MVFC: UNI, WIU,

SoCon: Furman OR Samford

SLC: UCA, SHSU

The big, bad bubble:

Big Sky:  EWU, Montana, Sac State

MVFC:  ISU, USD

Socon:  Furman OR Samford

Big South:  Monmouth OR Kennesaw

SLC:  Nichols, McNeese

The boys go over a couple of games that are going to have a big bearing on what happens Sunday as well.

James Madison @ Elon

Monmouth @ Kennesaw State

Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah

South Dakota State @ South Dakota

Furman @ Samford

 

Give the fellers a listen and see if you agree with what they are bringing to the table this week.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Patriot League: Week 11 Review and Power Rankings

The penultimate weekend of the 2017 Patriot League football season finally produced some clarity in the championship race. Colgate’s shutout win over Lafayette kept the Raiders in prime position for at least a share of the title. The Leopards dream of a ring ended but they can still be a major factor in the championship picture with a win over Lehigh. That’s because the Mountain Hawks kept control of their destiny with an impressive win over Holy Cross. All Lehigh has to do now is beat their arch rival to punch a ticket back to the playoffs. The remaining game last week saw Bucknell keep their dream of a winning season alive with a very blue collar like performance against Georgetown.

Bucknell 12 Georgetown 0

Bucknell’s (5-5, 2-3) shutout win (first since 2015) over Georgetown (1-9, 0-5) did not disappoint on the ugly meter. The combination of two poor offenses and two respectable defenses resulted in a slugfest that was slightly less ugly than Georgetown’s 7-0 loss to Lafayette the previous week. Mercifully, both offenses were able to climb over the 200 yard mark (GU 214, BU 297) in this game. After missing time this season, running back Joey DeFloria had a solid outing (23 carries 97 yards) on his Senior Day. Overall, the Bison rushing attack accounted for 171 of their 297 total yards. This is the second week in a row the Bison have had success running the ball. That has to be a wonderful sight for Coach Susan who has watched the offense struggle for much of the year due to the inability to run the ball. Another strong performance from DeFloria and Freshnock will be needed against Fordham if the Bison want to finish their 2017 campaign with a winning record.

Both defenses came out and dominated the play in the first half. The only points (John Burdick 26 yard FG) during the first 30 minutes of play were a result of Georgetown fumbling a punt return deep in their own territory. Burdick’s 21 yard chip shot with 7:17 remaining in the 3rd quarter pushed the Bison lead to 6-0. Bucknell would be able to extend their lead to two possessions the next time the touched the ball on offense. John Chiarolanzio (15-27 126 yards 1 TD) hit Marcus Ademilola for a 36 yard TD strike to give Bucknell a 12 point lead. Head Coach Joe Susan elected to go for 2 to extend the lead to 14 but the attempt failed.

The Hoya offense continues to be among the very worst in the country. The unit was shut out for the second straight week. It was also the second game in a row that quarterback Gunther Johnson (11-29 79 yards  1INT) failed to break the 100 yard barrier passing the ball. The sophomore did however lead the team with 131 yards rushing.

Up Next: Bucknell will try to secure a winning season against Fordham in the Bronx. Georgetown returns to D.C. to close out the 2017 season against red hot Colgate.

Lehigh 34 Holy Cross 21

Lehigh (4-6, 4-1) was able get key contributions from all 3 phases in a hugely important 13 point win over Holy Cross (4-7, 3-3). With the victory over the Crusaders, Lehigh now needs to beat arch rival Lafayette to capture at least a share of the Patriot League Title and the automatic bid into the playoffs. The Leopards were more-or-less eliminated from title contention with their 27-0 loss to Colgate. After a strong performance against Bucknell last week, Lehigh put forth an even better showing against the Crusaders on a cold afternoon at Goodman Stadium. The Mountain Hawk’s special teams got things started with blocked punt deep in Holy Cross territory early in the game then the offense and defense got in the act. Lehigh running back Dom Bragalone (20 carries 201 yards 4 TDs) continued his torrid play to carry the “O” in the victory. On defense it was senior captain Tyer Cavenas who led the spirited effort (397 yards allowed). Cavenas spent much of the afternoon harassing Holy Cross quarterback Peter Pujals. He also made a major impact on special teams for the second week in a row.

Cavenas’s blocked punt early in the 1st quarter set the Mountain Hawk offense up at the Crusader 6 yard line. It only took Lehigh one play to find paydirt. Bragalone powered his way in to give Lehigh a 7-0 lead with 10:08 remaining in the opening quarter. On Lehigh’s next possession, Bragalone scored from 7 yards out to cap an 8 play 81 yard drive and extend the Lehigh advantage to 14-0. Holy Cross cut the deficit to 7 when Pujals (18-36 276 yards 2 TDs) hit Blaise Bell for a 28 yard TD strike on a 4th and 8 play. The score would remain 14-7 until Lehigh’s Ed Mish connected on a 23 yard FG with 4:59 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Bragalone and Mish would each add a TD and FG respectively to give Lehigh a commanding 27-7 lead midway through the 4th quarter.

Holy Cross season concluded with the loss and now the focus in Worcester turns to the coaching search. It will be interesting to see what direction Athletic Director Nate Pine goes in.

Up Next: Lehigh hosts Lafayette in the 153rd version of college football’s “Most Played Rivalry”. A win would secure Lehigh at least a share of their 12th Patriot League Championship. Holy Cross’s season concludes with a 4-7 overall record and 3-3 league mark. The highlight of the Crusader season came way back on September when they throttled then Top 10 New Hampshire 51-26.

Colgate 27 Lafayette 0

Colgate (6-4, 4-1) kept their Patriot League Title hopes alive by blanking the Leopards (3-7, 3-2) 27-0 in Easton. It was the first shutout posted by the Raiders since they defeated Georgetown 19-0 in 2014. Colgate’s defense held the Leopards to 35 yards rushing and intercepted Sean O’Malley 3 times in the victory. One of the interceptions was pick sixed by Nick Ioanilli. The Raider “D” also came up with three big 4th down stops in a row in the second half when Lafayette had driven the ball into Colgate territory.

The Raider defense needed a strong performance because Grant Breneman (5-17 92 yards 1 INT) and the rest of the “O” had their worst outing in league play. A big reason for their struggles was a Lafayette defense that continues to play a very high level. It’s the main reason the Leopards were playing a November game against Colgate with major title implications on the line. If the Lafayette offense was simply mediocre they may very well be playing Lehigh for the championship this week instead of being relegated to spoiler status.

Both defenses controlled the first 18+ minutes of action. Colgate was finally able to break the scoring ice early in the 2nd quarter with a brisk 3 play 61 yard TD drive. Owen Rockett capped the drive by scoring from 17 yards out on a razzle-dazzle double reverse. Colgate extended their lead to 14-0 the next time their offense touched the ball. This time it was Breneman powering in from a yard out for the score. Two (24 & 37 yards) Chris Puzzi field goals in the 3rd quarter pushed the lead to 20-0. Then came Ioanilli’s 33 yard pick six to put the icing on the cake.

Up Next: Colgate will try to nail down at least a share of the league title with a win over Georgetown in our nation’s capital. Lafayette makes the 10 mile trek to Goodman Stadium to take on Lehigh for the 153rd time.

Power Rankings

  1. Colgate – The Raiders are a win over lowly Georgetown from posting a league best 7-4 season.
  2. Lehigh – Beat Lafayette and the Mountain Hawks will have a chance to redeem themselves in the playoffs.
  3. Bucknell – It’s rarely been pretty all season but if the Bison beat Fordham they’ll finish with a winning record.
  4. Holy Cross – The Gilmore era ended a month ago, the Pujals era ended on Saturday. What will the future hold for Crusader football? The recent past has been underwhelming.
  5. Lafayette – The defense is the best in the league but the offense will go down as one of the worst in Leopard history. A win over Lehigh would define Garrett’s first season.
  6. Fordham – The Rams hopefully used their late season bye to heal up. It’s hard to believe Chase Edmonds’ career will be ending with such little fanfare. He deserved a better script for his senior year.
  7. Georgetown – This season has been a disaster on every level. The Hoyas will likely need to endure one last beating at the hands of Colgate before it finally ends.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1114 – WEEK 11 REVIEW

Lance & Kris go over our the stories this week and the top news of the weekend is the bubble. Coming into the weekend, we had the potential for an enormous bubble going into the final week and subsequent selection Sunday. Nearly all the teams that needed to win did just that. A lot of the teams that didn’t necessarily need two straight wins lost.

Second top story, we have 4 teams who have clinched their respective conference auto bids. Jacksonville State and Wofford cemented their auto-bid position. Wofford holds the tiebreaker over Furman and if JSU loses next weekend, they’d still hold the tiebreaker over Austin Peay. Then

San Diego fully clinched the Pioneer, a conference in which their average margin of victory has been 35 points per game.

Finally, in the NEC, the conference where teams take their turns getting auto-bids, Central Connecticut State upsets Duquesne to take the title. This will be the 7th different school to have nabbed the auto-bid in the 8 years the conference has had one. Only Bryant remains as not having reached the playoffs yet.

They take a quick look at how the AGS Poll shook out this week.

Lance & Kris bring it home by giving a review of these games from last weekend:

New Hampshire 16 Elon 6

North Dakota State 49 South Dakota 14

South Dakota State 27 Illinois State 24

James Madison 20 Richmond 13

Mercer 35 Western Carolina 33

Northern Arizona 37 Montana State 36

*EE Show

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Big Sky Round Up Week 11

The Big Sky’s playoff picture didn’t get much clearer on Saturday win week 11 of play, however we now have the setup for a big final weekend of regular season play. No big upsets this weekend, which means there are six teams alive for a playoff berth, but possibly only three or four spots will be given to Big Sky teams. As of now Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, Weber State, Eastern Washington, and Sacramento State are alive for spots. Realistically, Eastern Washington and Sacramento State will probably not be in the field. The other four, however, are still alive.

The final weekend will pit a bubble team, Montana against its in-state rival Montana State. Northern Arizona and Southern Utah will also face off, with NAU quite possibly being on the bubble. Southern Utah and Weber should have spots wrapped up for Sunday’s selection show.

The Big Sky’s week started with Eastern Washington take a trip across a couple of time zones to take on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks. The Hawks are having a bit of a letdown this season due to a number of injuries to key starters. Eastern Washington on the other hand was dealing with the suspension of two players due to some extracurricular activities last weekend. One of those players was starting quarterback Gage Gubrud. The Fighting Hawks got on the board first with a Keaton Studsrud touchdown run. Eastern Washington would answer with a half back pass, Sam McPherson to Talolo Limu-Jones. Eastern Washington hit on two more scoring plays in the second quarter including a touchdown from quarterback in relief Eric Barriere to McPherson. Barriere also had a touchdown run. North Dakota tried to make it interesting in the fourth quarter by closing to gap to within seven but couldn’t close out. Eastern Washington will take on Portland State next weekend while North Dakota’s season is over.

After Montana’s victory against Northern Arizona last weekend without starting quarterback Gresch Jensen the Griz were happy to have Jensen back for Northern Colorado. The Bears know a thing or two about playing with a backup, as Jacob Knipp was knocked for the season and Conor Regan was brought in for the remainder of the season. The Griz got off to a quick start with a touchdown run from Gresch Jensen to open up the scoring. Northern Colorado answered right back with a scoring drive of their own, Alex Wesley catching a 26 yard pass from Conor Regan. From there the Griz scored 37 straight points and blew the doors off of Northern Colorado. The Bears managed a garbage time pick six by Marshaun Cameron to get the score a tiny bit closer. Montana will be at Montana State next weekend, while Northern Colorado will host Cal Poly in the Big Sky pillow fight of the week.

Portland State, the Big Sky’s kicking post this season, hosted Weber State this weekend. If you read that last sentence correctly you can probably imagine how this game turned out. Weber State got up 49-3 at the half and that’s really all you need to know about this game. The Wildcats rushed for 421 yards in this contest and somehow only kept the ball for two and a half minutes more than the Vikings. Kevin Smith rushed for 143 yards, David Jones rushed for 103 yards, and Treshawn Garrett rushed for 88 yards. Combined the rushers had seven touchdowns for the Wildcats. Portland State scored a couple of touchdowns in the second half, presumably against the Weber State JV. Weber State will host Idaho State next weekend in the Zion border war, while Portland State will look to keep it respectable against Eastern Washington.

Southern Utah kept their winning ways going and their lead in the Big Sky with a victory against UC-Davis this past weekend. The Aggies came into the game looking for an upset of the Big Sky’s leader and instead found a buzzsaw. Jake Maier turned in a respectable game, however it wasn’t enough to overcome the Thunderbird defense. Patrick Tyler earned Big Sky player of the week honors, as he passed for 370 yards and three touchdowns. Southern Utah quickly got up 21-0 on the Aggies, the first score on an interception return, then a Patrick Tyler touchdown pass. Jay Green would punch in a one yard touchdown to follow. At the half the Thunderbirds were up 26-7. Davis would come back and score in the third and fourth quarter, however the game was pretty much in hand before the Davis offense woke up. Southern Utah will host Northern Arizona next week while Davis will play the Causeway Classic against Sacramento State.

Case Cookus made his return to the field this week one week after being ejected against Montana for a helmet to helmet hit. Cookus came back and threw for 314 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for a touchdown as well. On the other side of the ball was the Montana State Bobcats who were looking to play the role of upset team, as their season is basically already over. The Bobcats made the game interesting in the fourth quarter by scoring with 13:18 left in the 4th to even it up at 30. NAUs Joe Logan would put in a touchdown to give the Lumberjacks a seven point lead with 4:49 left in the game. Montana State wasn’t done and went driving. Chris Murray hit Kevin Kassis with :32 seconds left in the game to put the Cats in position to win or tie the game. Coach Jeff Choate opted for the two point conversion and Chris Murray could not finish the play and NAU would escape with the win. Montana State will host Montana next week in the Treasure State Super Bowl, while Northern Arizona will be at Southern Utah.

In the night cap the Sacramento State Hornets went on the road to take on fairly helpless Cal Poly. The Hornets were trying to keep their very remote playoff chances alive and needed a win. Sacramento State put their foot to the gas almost immediately scoring three plays into the game and went on to score 49 straight against the Mustangs. Kevin Thomson had three touchdown passes for the Hornets. Ernest Jenkins returned a blocked field goal attempt for a 74 yard touchdown in the first quarter. The Hornets piled up 465 yards on offense while only holding the ball for 21:15 of the game. The Hornets will host UC-Davis next weekend while Cal Poly will be playing in the Big Sky pillow fight at Northern Colorado.

Scores

Eastern Washington 21
North Dakota 14

Northern Colorado 14
Montana 44

Weber State 63
Portland State 17

Southern Utah 47
UC-Davis 27

Montana State 36
Northern Arizona 37

Sacramento State 49
Cal Poly 14

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky player of the week is Southern Utah quarterback Patrick Tyler. Tyler was 26/36 for 370 yards and three touchdowns as the Thunderbirds took care of business against UC-Davis on Saturday in Davis, CA.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gubrud, QB, Eastern Washington – Did not record any stats
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 9 receptions, 123 yards
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 11 receptions for 93 yards
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – 17/25 for 228 yards, 3 TD, 30 yards rushing 1 TD
Patrick Tyler, QB, Southern Utah – 26/36 for 370 yards, 3 TD 2 INT, 15 yards rushing

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Weber State
3. Montana
4. Eastern Washington
5. Northern Arizona
6. Sacramento State
7. UC-Davis
8. Montana State
9. Idaho State
10. Northern Colorado
11. North Dakota
12. Cal Poly
13. Portland State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Fully expected to UC-Davis to pull the upset this week, but that Southern Utah team might be the real deal. I haven’t known what to think of them all season, and every week I think, “there’s no way they can win again this week” and they do. Hope they can win out and get a playoff seed, they’ve earned it.

Montana State going for two and losing was basically how I expected that game to end. As I was sitting in the bar area at Jakers in Missoula watching the game I said to the group with me, and whomever was in earshot at the time, “This is going to end with the Cats failing on a two point conversion.”  Welp.  That said, Jeff Choate made the right decision. The Cats literally had nothing to lose (except the game). They’re not going to the playoffs, they’re on the road, what the hell.. take the shot. You’re the hero if you convert it, no worse off if you lose. Right decision, poor execution.. didn’t like that play call.

I’m guessing none of you had Sacramento State blowing out Cal Poly when this season started.

Gage Gubrud’s replacement, Eric Barriere, had an okay day in his first start for Eastern Washington. 13/23 for 130 yards and a touchdown pass, as well as 55 yards rushing and a touchdown. Game probably looks a bit different if Gubrud is playing, but he didn’t.

The Big Sky comes down to next week. There’s a three way tie at the top of the conference for the autoqualifier bid. Southern Utah, Weber State and Northern Arizona are all 6-1 in conference. Montana, Eastern Washington, and Sacramento State are all sitting at 5-2 in conference. Eastern Washington and Sacramento State are both 6-4 on the season. In theory, EWU and Sacramento State are probably not getting into the playoffs at 7-4 (if they both win next week). That leaves Montana, Weber, Northern Arizona and Southern Utah probably fighting for three spots. Southern Utah and NAU play next weekend. Weber did not have to play NAU this year. Going to be a screwy tie breaker scenario that plays out.

At the same time… can’t believe we give a playoff spot to the NEC and the Pioneer league. Man alive.. why? I get it, but why? Also, the Patriot league leader, Lehigh, is 4-1 in conference.. and 4-6 overall. The second place team, Colgate, is 6-4, 4-1 in conference. Lehigh owns the tiebreaker over Colgate in this situation.

North Carolina A&T won the MEAC this past weekend. They have indicated that they will play in the Celebration Bowl rather than the FCS playoffs. That’s a shame that one of the FCS’s top teams, and one of two that are left undefeated, won’t be competing in this year’s playoffs. It would be interesting to see how they’d fare in the tournament.

My picks for the week: Montana, Northern Colorado, Weber State, Southern Utah, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington.

2017-1114 Week 11 AGS FCS Bracket

The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket

Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both the seeds and at larges as that poll has been one of the better predictors of both those selections and is a combination of many voters and not just that of one opinion. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess at automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines the committee uses from the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together. You can see those guidelines in the link below.

Championship Manual Link

Here is the bracket based on current standings in the AGS Top 25 Poll.

Last four in: Montana, New Hampshire, Delaware, Samford

First four out: McNeese St, Kennesaw St, Eastern Washington, Illinois State

Next four out: Nicholls St, Western Carolina, Richmond, Colgate

The Seeds: This week we saw NDSU jump back to the 2 spot it had resided in for the entire season until last week following an impressive win against South Dakota. Central Arkansas jumped ahead of Jacksonville St following JSU’s close bout with Tenn-Martin. Elon was bumped from seeded territory after taking a loss at New Hampshire which made room to move Southern Utah into the seeds at 8. On the outside looking in we have Stony Brook at 9 followed by Weber State and Western Illinois.

The Bubble: Montana was the final team into the bracket with McNeese St being the unfortunate first team left out. McNeese St, Kennesaw St, and Nicholls St all look to finish with strong records but less than ideal SOS. Meanwhile both Eastern Washington and Illinois State look to finish with so-so records but both will have top 10 SOS in the nation. Barring a bunch of upsets this final weekend the bubble is looking awful full. The committee will have to make some tough decisions deciding who to leave home.

*Note: Elon and Furman played an OOC matchup earlier in the season. The committee does try and avoid these matchups barring it doesn’t create additional flights. As this field was set, splitting up that matchup would create additional travel.

Conference Breakdown
Automatic Qualifiers At- Large Bids
Big Sky Southern Utah Weber St
Northern Arizona
Montana
Big South Monmouth
CAA James Madison Stony Brook
Elon
Delaware
New Hampshire
MVFC North Dakota St South Dakota St
Western Illinois
South Dakota
Northern Iowa
NEC Central Connecticut
OVC Jacksonville St
Patriot Lehigh
Pioneer San Diego
Southern Wofford Furman
Samford
Southland Central Arkansas Sam Houston St

MVFC – Week 11 in Review

MVFC LogoThis week went down pretty much as expected, for the most part, without any real upsets. A few teams somewhat “outperformed” expectations, but the end results this week aren’t really a huge surprise.

Let’s take a look at conference standings, where teams are in relation to a possible playoff spot or if that’s out of the picture for them.

School Overall Conference Final Game
North Dakota State 9-1 6-1 @ILSU
South Dakota State 8-2 5-2 @USD
Northern Iowa 6-4 5-2 INSU
South Dakota 7-3 4-3 SDSU
Western Illinois 7-3 4-3 SIU
Illinois State 6-4 4-3 NDSU
Youngstown State 5-5 3-4 MSU
Southern Illinois 4-6 2-5 @WIU
Missouri State 3-7 2-5 @YSU
Indiana State 0-10 0-7 @UNI

For reference, in recent history, I believe only one 8-DI-win MVFC team has been excluded from the playoffs (YSU in 2013, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season, but was tied with 3 other MVFC teams at 5-3 in the conference and was coming off of 3-straight losses). In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.

NDSU, USD, SDSU, and WIU have all reached 7+ wins and will likely be in the playoffs. The one caveat to this is USD, who has lost their last two games (and 3 of their last 4). If they lose again next weekend (to SDSU), they may be considered “borderline” since the previously mentioned 8-4 2013 YSU team got left out because they lost their last 3 straight). Not saying they will be left out, but they’ll be sweating things come Selection Sunday.

UNI and ILSU are both at 6 wins and need 1 more to get into the playoffs. UNI should be able to do it assuming a win against INSU, but ILSU has to take on NDSU, so that’s a really tough situation for them.

With 5 or fewer wins and only one regular season game left, YSU, SIU, MSU, and INSU are out of the playoff picture. SIU and INSU both play teams that are likely in the playoffs, so they could make things “interesting” if either of them pull off a win.

#13 Western Illinois at Indiana State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
WIU 3 28 7 7 45
ILSU 0 0 0 0 0

Quick Hits:

  • WIU – RB Steve McShane ran for 63 yards, caught for 51 yards and 1 TD, and returned 3 punts including an 81-yard TD return
  • WIU – #2 QB Connor Sampson came in in the second half and threw for 20 yards and a TD…the first of his Leatherneck career…to WR (and HS teammate) Darron Wheeler…for his first TD catch of his Leatherneck career
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor again led the team with 9 tackles, 1.5 for loss and a forced fumble
  • WIU – DBs Aaron Diggs and Justin Fitzpatrick had 6 tackles and 1 INT each
  • INSU – RB LeMonte Booker ran for 51 yards, and WR Bob Pugh caught for 51 yards…the top player for each stat
  • INSU – LB Jonas Griffith led the team with 13 tackles, 2 for loss including 1 sack as well as 1 pass breakup and 2 QB hurries
  • INSU – P Thomas Bouldin kicked 8 times with a 44 yards per punt average, had 1 inside the 20 and 2 TBs

Western Illinois’ defense played a great game, pitching a shutout for the first time since 2010 and holding an opponent to under 200 total yards of offense for the first time since 2010. Indiana State’s defense also played well, despite the score. They spent much of the day bringing pressure behind the line of scrimmage and getting 8 total tackles for loss. This helped to keep the game close at first, with the only points being a WIU FG. In the second quarter, however, WIU was able to figure out that nearly all of the pressure was coming from the outside…so they started running inside more. 28 points later and WIU had a 31-0 lead going into halftime. The second half saw many underclassmen and second-string players take the field for the Leathernecks, with two players getting the first TD catches of their careers, to increase the lead to 45-0 by the end of the game. The biggest “ding” against WIU in this game was when top WR Jaelon Acklin reacted poorly to being roughly picked up off the pile by an Indiana State defender by throwing a fist his direction. The actions got both players ejected from the game and suspended for the first halves of the team’s games next week. I’ve been informed that non-targeting ejections do not carry a further suspension, so it sounds like Acklin will be back for the start of next week’s game.

Western Illinois picks up their 7th win of the season, moving to 7-3 overall, 4-3 in the MVFC and will play 4-6 Southern Illinois next weekend in Macomb.
Indiana State remains winless on the season, moving to 0-10 overall, 0-7 in the MVFC, and hit the road for the season closer at 6-4 Northern Iowa.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 30
It was: Leathernecks by 45
30…45…80…does it really matter? In a game like this it was just a question of when they would call off the dogs.

Youngstown State at Southern Illinois

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
YSU 0 14 7 7 28
SIU 0 7 10 3 20

Quick Hits:

  • YSU – RB Tevin McCaster ran for 158 yards and 1 TD
  • YSU – WR Damoun Patterson had 4 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs
  • YSU – DE Justus Reed had a couple of tackles, but also had a strip-sack forced fumble that he recovered and returned 21 yards for a TD near the end of the game to go up by 8…essentially the deciding score
  • SIU – Safety-turned-Running QB Matt DeSomer ran for 140 yards and 2 TDs and threw for 81 yards…and led the team in receiving with 1 catch for 34 yards. I think that’s the first time I’ve ever seen one player lead the team in passing, rushing, and receiving in one game.
  • SIU – LB Kyron Watson led the team in tackles with 11
  • SIU – DL Anthony Knighton had 6 tackles, 1.5 for loss (including 1 sack), a forced fumble, and a pass breakup

Despite the fact that neither team had much to play for other than bragging rights, this was one of the more exciting games of the weekend. SIU got up early in the 2nd quarter on a 58-yard TD run, but YSU answered back with a couple of Hunter Wells TD passes to lead 14-7 at the half. In the 3rd, SIU picked up a FG and TD and YSU had another of their own to give YSU a 4 point lead. SIU had another FG with 9:21 left in the 4th to pull within 1, but then with just under 2 minutes left in the game, YSU DE Justus Reed sacked the SIU QB, stripping the ball, and running it back for a TD to reach the final score of 28-20.

Youngstown State moves to an even 5-5 on the season with a 3-4 conference record and will host 3-7 Missouri State next weekend.
Southern Illinois falls to 4-6 and 2-5 in the conference and will conclude their season at 7-3 Western Illinois.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Penguins by 7
It was: Penguins by 8

They say defenses win championships. This wasn’t a championship, but it still applies. Both teams had issues with injured QBs and were about even offensively. YSU has a better defense though and it showed on the last scoring play.

#21 Illinois State at #5 South Dakota State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT Final
ILSU 7 10 0 7 0 24
SDSU 7 10 0 7 3 27

Quick Hits:

  • ILSU – RS-FR QB Malachi Broadnax threw for 102 yards and ran for 83 yards in his (as near as I can tell) starting debut for the Redbirds
  • ILSU – WR James Robinson caught for 83 yards and 2 TDs
  • ILSU – LB Brannon Barry led the team with 8 tackles, 1 for loss, and DE James Graham had 2 sacks
  • ILSU – DB Christian Uphoff had a couple of kickoff returns including one taken 5 yards in the end zone and returned all the way across the field for a 100-yard TD
  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christian threw for 172 yards and 2 TDs, but also had 2 INTs. He also ran for 110 yards and another TD
  • SDSU – WR Jake Wieneke caught 5 passes for 52 yards
  • SDSU – LB Christian Rozeboom led the team with 10 tackles, including 2 for loss (1 sack)
  • SDSU – PK Chase Vinatieri kicked two FGs including the game-winning 43-yarder in OT and earned the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week Award

A TD for each team in the first quarter and they were all tied up at 7.
A FG for each team in the second quarter and they were all tied up at 10 at halftime.
A TD for each team in the fourth quarter and they were all tied up at 24…(sensing a pattern here?)
In OT, ISU’s kicker missed a 39-yard FG to the left, but when SDSU was stopped further back, Vinatieri hit the game winner from 43 yards out (how familiar does that sound to anyone who also follows the NFL?…Chase Vinatieri is the nephew of former SDSU and longtime NFL kicker Adam Vinatieri, just fyi).

Illinois State drops to 6-4 overall, 4-3 in the MVFC and hope to salvage any hope of making the playoffs back home against 9-1 North Dakota State next weekend.
South Dakota State moves to 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and head down the road to take on in-state rival 7-3 South Dakota to close out the regular season.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 7
It was: Jackrabbits by 3

I said that SDSU would by a Dallas Goedert TD reception. Well…TE Goedert did have a TD reception, although it was the first score of the game. Still, I knew it’d be a close game, didn’t know it’d go to OT, but it was close.

#19 Northern Iowa at Missouri State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
UNI 6 16 0 3 25
MSU 0 7 3 0 10

Quick Hits:

  • UNI – RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 131 yards and 1 TD
  • UNI – DB Elijah Campbell had 4 tackles and an INT returned 35 yards for a TD
  • UNI – PK Sam Drysdale went 4/4 on FGs from 20, 47, 37, and 22 yards
  • MSU – RB Jason Randall ran for 24 yards and a TD
  • MSU – LB Angelo Garbutt led the team with 17 tackles, had 1.5 TFLs (including 1 sack), and 2 QB hurries; he earned the MVFC Newcomer of the Week Award
  • MSU – P Brendan Withrow had 6 punts for a 45.7 yard average with a long of 56 and 2 within the 20

Northern Iowa got the scoring started with a TD in the first and then a couple of FGs in the second. The first play from scrimmage following that second FG, MSU threw an interception that was taken back for a TD. With less than a minute left in the 2nd, MSU was finally able to get some points on the board with a TD to go to halftime down 22-7. The Bears were only able to muster a FG in the 3rd and the Panthers finished up with a FG of their own late in the 4th to come away with the 25-10 victory. In the game, UNI QB Eli Dunne was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter, with QB Colton Howell coming in for the rest of the game. Howell wasn’t spectacular, but didn’t throw any interceptions and had 3 net yards on the ground (so didn’t end up with a lot of negative yards from sacks…a few…but nothing huge). I think with Dunne in there, UNI probably would have turned a couple of those FGs into TDs.

Northern Iowa is now 6-4, 5-2 in the conference and heads back home to close out their season against 0-10 Indiana State.
Missouri State falls to 3-7, 2-5 against MVFC teams. They’ll finish the season at 5-5 Youngstown State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Panthers by 17
It was: Panthers by 15
Pretty solid pick here…like I said, I think Dunne would have gotten them a few more points, but not too far off.

#10 South Dakota at #4 North Dakota State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
USD 7 7 0 0 14
NDSU 14 14 14 7 49

Quick Hits:

  • USD – QB Chris Streveler threw for 232 yards and ran for 93 yards and 2 TDs
  • USD – DB Phillip Powell led the team with 11 tackles
  • USD – WR Brandt Van Roekel finished with 62 receiving yards
  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 307 yards and a TD and ran for 39 yards and a TD; he earned the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week Award
  • NDSU – CB Jalen Allison – led the team with 10 tackles, 7 solo, and had 1 sack, earning him the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week Award
  • NDSU – RB Ty Brooks ran for 152 yards and 3 TDs

In this instance, the conference “game of the week”…wasn’t really much of a game. The Coyotes did start the game well with a TD on their first possession. Then it was NDSU’s turn for a (Ty Brooks rushing) TD. Then it was NDSU’s turn for a (Brooks Anderson rushing) TD. Then it was NDSU’s turn for a (Seth Wilson rushing) TD…I think you get the point. USD would score again on a second Chris Streveler run in the 2nd…and again NDSU would answer with a (Ty Brooks rushing) TD. By that point, NDSU had doubled-up USD with a halftime score of 28-14. From that point on though, it was all NDSU, with the Bison defense recording a second-half shutout while the offense put up TD after TD (three more, specifically), for a final score of 49-14.

South Dakota drops to 7-3 overall, 4-3 in the MVFC and will hope to hold on to their playoff hopes next week when they host 8-2 South Dakota State.
North Dakota State is now 9-1 with a 6-1 conference record and finish their regular season at 6-4 Illinois State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 12
It was: Bison by 35
That’s a bit of a larger margin than I anticipated. I knew the Bison would come out fired up after losing to SDSU the previous week…but kinda thought USD could hold them a little closer. This was the one game where I was a bit more off on the margin, but still got the pick.

I was 44-15 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 5-1 in my picks which puts me at 49-15 for the season so far.

Only one weekend remains until the regular season is over. It’s likely that anywhere from 4-6 MVFC teams will be playing after next weekend, depending on the results of next Saturday’s games.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 11 Results

With less than a week until Selection Sunday we’re getting down to the judgement day for many teams in the AGS rankings and although week 11 went to plan for the most part there’s still potential for a big shakeup in these rankings next week. As they have been all season James Madison is ranked #1 getting all but one of the 79 first place votes. However, there was some shuffling amongst the rest of the top 5 as North Dakota State and Jacksonville State swapped spots moving NDSU back to #2 and JSU down to #4. Central Arkansas and South Dakota State maintained their positions at #3 and #5, respectively, to round out the top 5.

There wasn’t much for big movers up this week as a number of teams moved up 1-3 spots due to teams falling in front of them. The lone exception was New Hampshire who rose 7 spots into the top 25 at #20 after their upset win over Elon. Kennesaw State also made their way into the 25 for the first time this year moving up 2 spots to #24 following their dismantling of Charleston Southern.

Elon and South Dakota were among the biggest fallers of the week each dropping 5 spots to #12 and #15, respectively, after losses to UNH and NDSU. Western Carolina and Illinois State each dropped out of the top 25 after sustaining losses to Mercer and SDSU.

The Big Sky, CAA, and MVFC led the way in terms of representation placing 5 teams each into the top 25. They were followed by the SOCON and the Southland with 3 each, and the Big South with 2 teams in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1974 78
2 North Dakota State Bison 1820 1
3 Central Arkansas Bears 1804
4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1752
5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1661
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1534
7 Wofford Terriers 1464
8 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1419
9 Stony Brook Seawolves 1221
10 Weber State Wildcats 1189
11 Western Illinois Leathernecks 1119
12 Elon Phoenix 1032
13 North Carolina A&T Aggies 921
14 Furman Paladins 891
15 South Dakota Coyotes 841
16 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 746
17 Northern Iowa Panthers 649
18 Samford Bulldogs 641
19 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 591
20 New Hampshire Wildcats 416
21 Monmouth Hawks 371
22 Montana Grizzlies 285
23 McNeese State Cowboys 269
24 Kennesaw State Owls 249
25 Eastern Washington Eagles 209
ORV:
26 Illinois State Redbirds 194
27 Nicholls State Colonels 180
28 Western Carolina Catamounts 97
29 Grambling State Tigers 88
30 Yale Bulldogs 21
31 Richmond Spiders 12
32 Colgate Raiders 5
33 Sacramento State Hornets 3
34T Austin Peay Governors 2
34T North Carolina Central Eagles 2

Most Significant Win: New Hampshire Wildcats
Most Significant Loss: Elon Phoenix

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?198881-AGS-Poll-Results-WEEK-11-11-13-2017

NOTE: Next week the AGS top 25 will be released early on Sunday morning to get out in advance of the NCAA Selection Show scheduled for Sunday 11/19 at 11AM ET on ESPNU.