Patriot League: Week 12 Review and Power Rankings

The 2017 Patriot League football season concluded with two schools, Colgate and Lehigh, staking claim to the championship. The Raiders were able to overcome a sluggish start against Georgetown by scoring 35 straight points to earn a share of their 9th title. Lehigh also finished their game strong to sneak past rival Lafayette in the 153rd edition of “The Rivalry”. The win earned the Mountain Hawks a bid into the FCS playoffs for the second straight year. Fordham outlasted Bucknell in the other game over the weekend. Chase Edmonds went out in style in his final college start. The Patriot League’s all-time leading rusher finished his college career with a 185 yard and 2 TD performance against the Bison.

Colgate 35 Georgetown 10

Despite an auspicious start, Colgate (7-4, 5-1) was able to easily take care of Georgetown (1-10, 0-6) to capture a share of their 9th Patriot League Championship. With the dominating win, the Raiders ended up out scoring their final 5 Patriot League opponents 185-32. Grant Breneman (1,594 yards 18 TDs 5 INTs, 401 yards rushing 6 TDs) led a well balanced offense and the defense smothered teams during Colgate’s dominant finish. A slow start to the season is what ultimately cost the Raiders the outright Patriot League Title and/or a chance at an at-large bid in the playoffs. As it is, Colgate will return a wealth of talent and experience in 2018 from a 7-4 team, league co-championship squad.

Georgetown on the other hand will enter next year’s campaign riding a 15 game conference losing streak and a 10 game overall losing skid. The Hoya offense that averaged an anemic 12.5 points this season (5th worst average in FCS) is the main culprit for the team’s struggles. Georgetown managed just 6 first downs and 140 yards of total offense against Colgate. Even the return of veteran quarterback Tim Barnes (8-20 72 yards) on Senior Day could not spark the “O”. The longest drive Georgetown put together during the course of the game, 5 plays 39 yards, was the last one of the game. Five out of the Hoyas 11 drives during the game ended with a 3 and out. As a result of so many short possessions their defense eventually wilts over the course of 60 minutes.

Prior to running out of gas against the Raiders, the Georgetown defense was able to make their presence felt immediately. On Colgate’s first play from scrimmage Kristian Tate pick sixed Grant Breneman (16-23 137 yards 3 TDs 1 INT) to give the Hoyas a 7-0 lead less than 10 seconds into the game.  Georgetown extended their lead to 10-0 on their first offensive possession thanks to Brad Hurst’s 36 yard FG. Colgate’s offense would answer with a methodical 13 play 68 yard TD drive that took nearly 8 minutes off the game clock. James Holland (13 carries 57 yards 1 TD) finished the drive with a 5 yard run to pay dirt.

The Raiders would take their first lead of the game the next time they touched the ball. This time it was Breneman connecting with Thomas Ives for a short 2 yard TD toss to give Colgate a 14-10 lead with 11:10 left in the 2nd quarter. Just before half, Breneman would find Ives (5 rec 45 yards 3 TDs) for another score to give Colgate a 21-10 lead. Ives added a spectacular one handed catch in the corner of the end zone late in the second half for his 3rd TD of the game! The play earned the junior WR a spot in ESPN’s Top 10 list and the Colgate record books (3 TD receptions ties school record).

Fordham 20 Bucknell 9

Fordham’s (4-7, 3-3) win over Bucknell (5-6, 2-4) had to be a bit bittersweet for the Rams on Senior Day in Bronx. The win is certainly a nice capper to the year but watching Chase Edmonds run for 185 yards and 2 TDs for one final time reminded fans of what could have been for Fordham this year. Edmonds entered the season within shouting distance of Adrian Peterson’s (Georgia Southern) career FCS rushing mark and was the preseason favorite to win the Payton Award as the subdivision’s best player. As things played out, injuries would derail Edmonds march towards history and greatly handicap Fordham’s overall performance. The Ram’s run of 5 straight winning seasons (4 with at least 8 wins) came to a crashing halt but there’s no doubt Edmonds and his teammates provided the home crowd one last great memory.

Bucknell was not able to the spoil Edmonds going away party due to their offense’s inability to score touchdowns. John Burdick’s three field goals were enough to keep the Bison ahead for the first 50 minutes of play but in the end the Rams three trips to the end zone won the game. It was the 4th time out of 6 league games the Bison failed to score a touchdown. The most points Bucknell posted in a Patriot League contest was 21 in a three touchdown loss to Lehigh. As has been the case for much of the year, DeFloria and Freshnock failed to combine for a 100 yards and the quarterback play lack efficiency. Bison quarterback John Chiarolanzio (17-43 162 yards) also struggled to gain traction in the loss. Until the offense can complement Bison’s usually stout defense, Bucknell’s Patriot League Title drought (1996) will continue.

The only scoring in the first half came via a 65 yard Edmond’s touchdown run midway through the 2nd quarter. After both defenses controlled play during the first 30 minutes of play, things would finally open up after halftime. Burdick’s 27 yard FG finally got Bucknell on the board with 3:41 left in the 3rd quarter following a Fordham fumble deep in their own territory. Burdick would tack on two more field goals early in the 4th quarter to give Bucknell a 9-7 lead. The Bison would hold onto the lead until Austin Longi broke their back with 90 yard punt return for a touchdown midway through the final quarter. Following a 4th down stop by the Ram “D”, Edmonds broke loose for another long touchdown (55 yards) with just over 3 minutes left in regulation to put the game on ice.

Lehigh 38 Lafayette 31

Lehigh’s (5-6, 5-1) 7 point win over their arch rival Lafayette (3-8, 3-3) was basically a microcosm of the Mountain Hawks season that ended with a share of the Patriot League Championship and a spot in the FCS Playoffs. Lehigh’s performance was not always pretty, (turnovers and a porous rush D reared their ugly head again) but in the end it was just good enough to get the job done. The most impressive aspect of the win might be how the defense played in the second half. Mayes, Bragalone, Pelletier were once again great on “O” but it was the Lehigh “D” that held Lafayette to 23 total yards over the final 30 minutes. Offense won Lehigh 5 games this year but the second half proved that defense does indeed win championships.

Speaking of defense, Lafayette’s league leading unit was shredded (495 yards allowed) for much of the game. The Leopard’s “D” struggled to get pressure on Mayes for much of the game which allowed the junior quarterback to carve up the secondary. The much anticipated battle between Leopard CB Phillip Parham and the Lehigh wide receivers went in favor of the Brown and White. Lafayette’s defense also failed to keep Dominic Bragalone from racking up another 100+ yard rushing game.

Surprisingly, it was the much malinged Leopard offense that gave Lafayette a 10 point lead at half. John Garrett came out with a creative gameplan in first half that worked with great success. Lafayette used several different formations to keep the Lehigh defense off balance. Leopard WR Nick Pearson (6 rushed 95 yards 1 TD) came out of nowhere to steal the show during the first 30 minutes of play with several big runs around the edge. For whatever reason, Garrett and his staff opted for a much more conservative approach on offense in the second half.

Lafayette’s aggressive play calling in the first half paid dividends right away. Pearson’s 1 yard touchdown run on a jet sweep capped a very impressive 10 play 73 yard drive on the Leopard’s opening possession of the game. It wouldn’t take Lehigh long to respond however. After a Gatlin Casey fumble inside the Lafayette 10 yard line was overturned by replay, Dom Bragalone (29 carries 113 yards 2 TDs) powered into the end zone from 5 yards out to tie the game at 7 with 6:30 remaining in the 1st quarter. Lehigh would take a 14-7 lead on their next possession thanks to a 5 yard Troy Pelletier (9 rec 109 yards 2 TDs) TD reception.

Following a Lehigh muffed punt, Lafayette would tie the game at 14 early in the 2nd quarter. Selwyn Simpson bulldozed his was passed the goal line from 5 yards away for the score. Lehigh’s Marc Raye-Redmon would then fumble the ensuing kickoff to once against set up the Leopard offense deep in Mountain Hawk territory. That would lead to a 33 yard Jeff Kordenbrock FG and 17-14 Lafayette lead. C.J. Amil’s 6 yard TD run on Lafayette’s next possession would give Lafayette a 24-14 halftime lead.

Lehigh would close the gap to 24-21 with 7:12 left in the 3rd quarter on Bragalone’s second TD run of the game. That setup C.J Amil’s 94 yard kickoff return touchdown that pushed the Leopard lead back to 10 points. That would be the last impact pay for Lafayette. Following Amil’s return, Lehigh dominated the rest of the game. The Mountain Hawks would score the game’s final 17 points to escape with the win and the championship.

Up Next: Lehigh heads to Long Island to play Stony Brook (9-2) in the 1st Round of the FCS Playoffs.

Power Rankings

  1. Colgate – The Raiders finish the season with a share of the Patriot League Title and the conference’s only winning record. Expectations will be high in Hamilton in 2018 given how much Colgate returns on both sides of the ball.
  2. Lehigh – The 2017 season didn’t go to script but the Mountain Hawks managed to capture a share of their 12th Patriot League Title and a chance for some playoff redemption.
  3. Fordham – With a healthy Chase Edmonds this would have been much different team and season. As it is, Coach Breiner faces a pretty hefty rebuilding job for 2018.
  4. Lafayette – With a championship in sight and fate in their hands, the season ended with 2 disappointing losses. Coach Garrett must find a way to put an end to the Leopard’s streak of 8 straight losing seasons in 2018.
  5. Holy Cross – Peter Pujals’s career certainly did not end the way he wanted but that doesn’t take away from his stellar individual career. It will be a new era of Holy Cross football in 2018 with a new head coach and quarterback.
  6. Bucknell – Bucknell could not carry the early season momentum they built up into league play. The offense completely fell apart down stretch which is why the Bison finished under .500 in the Patriot League and overall.
  7. Georgetown – 15 straight Patriot League, 10 consecutive losses overall; those are the only two stats that matter as Coach Sgarlatta turns the page to 2018. The Hoyas desperately need to improve the offense if those ugly streaks are going to end.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1121 – WEEK 12 REVIEW

This week is a damn good listen. The guys go over the big games that dictated a lot of playoff activity. They move along to give an honest opinion of what this year’s FCS Selection Committee did with the field. It is not a ringing endorsement of the scattered thought processes that went into this field in 2017.

So listen up.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC – Playoffs Round 1 Preview

MVFC LogoIt’s playoff time…er…well, for half of the conference anyway. The other half…they get to spend a bit more time with their families this Thanksgiving break. Since two of the MVFC teams are seeds and 3 are at-large teams, we’ve got 3 games in the first round involving MVFC teams. Here’s the full playoff bracket if you’d like to see what everyone is up to.

I’m going to have to change up the format a little bit and do something more like a stats comparison. In most cases, there’s very little in the way of direct comparisons that can be made between the teams (like with common opponents or something), so I’m kinda having to go off of season stats. Stats aren’t the be-all and end-all of comparisons though. You do have to consider who they played, so I’ll also be listing the strength of schedule rankings for both Sagarin (out of all D1 football programs) and Massey (just FCS programs).

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

So, here are the games this week:
3:00 PM – Western Illinois (8-3) at Weber State (9-2)
3:00 PM – South Dakota (7-4) at Nicholls (8-3)
4:00 PM – Monmouth (9-2) at Northern Iowa (7-4)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.
(guess you’ll have to bust out multiple devices if you want to watch all three at the same time).

Western Illinois (8-3) at Weber State (9-2)

This Season

  • Western Illinois went 8-3 overall with a 5-3 conference record. They were 3-0 OOC, all on the road, with wins at FBS* Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt), Tennessee Tech (OVC), and Northern Arizona (Big Sky). They were 2-2 at Hanson Field and 6-1 on the road. WIU’s schedule was ranked 131st in DI by Sagarin and 4th in the FCS by Massey.
  • Weber State finished their season at 9-2 overall with a 7-1 conference record. They went went 2-1 OOC, with wins over NAIA Montana Western and Sacramento State (Big Sky, but didn’t count as a conference game) and a 13-point loss at FBS California (Pac 12). They went 4-1 at home and 5-1 on the road this season. WSU’s schedule was ranked 151st in DI by Sagarin and 17th in the FCS by Massey.

History:
The Leathernecks and Wildcats have played twice in the past as part of a H&H series back in ’75/’76. WIU won the first game at WSU 19-10 and the second one 21-19 in Macomb, so Western Illinois holds the series lead 2-0. Western Illinois will be making their 11th postseason appearance, while Weber State will be making their 6th appearance and their first time hosting a playoff game.

As I said, I’m going to change up the format a little bit, so first off, lets look at how things might go down when Western Illinois has the ball. The Leathernecks put up just over 405 ypg in their games this season (39th in the FCS) and scored at a rate of 35.5 ppg (13th). 160 ypg of that came on the ground (52nd) and just under 245 ypg through the air (27th). The WIU offense allows 5.36 tackles for loss per game (32nd) and has turned the ball over 11 times this season (10th).
The Wildcats defense allowed 338 ypg (37th) and 16.6 ppg (11th), with 196.5 ypg allowed to opposing run games (23rd) and 220.9 ypg to passes (67th). They get 7.1 tackles for loss per game (31st) and have nabbed the ball away 25 times this season (13th).
So, WSU has a good run defense and what I’d consider a mid-range pass defense, while WIU has a mid-range run game and pretty decent passing game. This makes me think that WIU might have a bit of trouble running the ball against the Wildcats, but should be able to get solid yardage through the air. WIU doesn’t turn the ball over much although WSU can create turnovers fairly well.

Flipping things around, when Weber State has the ball, they put up 408.5 ypg (37th in the FCS) and scored at a rate of 35.7 ppg (12th). 196.5 ypg of that came on the ground (25th) and 212 ypg through the air (57th). Their offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has lost the ball 15 times so far (33rd)
The Leathernecks defense allowed 343.2 ypg (39th) and 22.3 ppg (36th) with 160.3 ypg allowed against the run (24th) and 223.3 ypg allowed through the air (72nd). They get 8 tackles for loss per game (14th) and have forced 26 turnovers this season (6th)
Here WIU has a good run defense and mid-level pass defense, while WSU has a good running offense and mid-level passing offense, which points towards the Wildcats being fairly even offensively, probably relying a little more heavily on the ground game than WIU will be. WIU is better at getting tackles for loss than WSU is at preventing them and is very good at forcing turnovers, something the Wildcats have struggled with somewhat this season.

On special teams, Weber State has a much better punter and punt return defense, but WIU has a better punt returner. The kickoffs and kick returns are much closer though.
WIU has a better turnover margin, has a few more sacks on other teams, and allowes fewer sacks on themselves. The Wildcats have the TOP advantage and don’t get penalized as much.

Honestly, just looking at the stats, these two teams form one of the most even matchups I’ve ever seen between football teams. Even the predictions that I’ve seen bear that out…Massey has WIU by essentially 1 point, Vegas says it’s dead even…I saw another site that gave WSU the nod by 1 point. My view on things is that usually predictions take into account something along the lines of a 3 point home field advantage. Thing is, I’ve seen Western Illinois play in 3 of the 4 home games and 2 of the road games. They actually get pumped up more when they play on the road. They really thrive on taking a loud opposing crowd and completely shutting them up…even more so than they do in front of a home “crowd”. Because of that, I think that home field advantage doesn’t really matter in most situations for the Leathernecks, so you can throw those 3 points out the window. My prediction is that Western Illinois gets by the Wildcats by just about that 3 point margin and moves on to another game in Utah…this time in Cedar City at Southern Utah.

South Dakota (7-4) at Nicholls State (8-3)

This Season

  • South Dakota went 7-4 overall with a 4-4 conference record. They were 3-0 OOC with wins over Drake (Pioneer), FBS Bowling Green (MAC) and North Dakota (Big Sky). They were 4-1 at the DakotaDome and 3-3 when playing on the road. USD’s schedule was ranked 125th in DI by Sagarin and 3rd in the FCS by Massey.
  • Nicholls State went 8-3 overall with a 7-2 record in the Southland. They were 1-1 OOC with a 24-14 loss to FBS Texas A&M (SEC) and a win over Prairie View A&M (SWAC). They were 5-0 at John L. Guidry Stadium and 3-3 when playing on the road. NSU’s schedule is ranked 213th in DI by Sagarin and 74th in the FCS by Massey.

History:
The Coyotes and Colonels have never met before on the football field. It will be Nicholls’ 4th appearance in the playoffs and their first time hosting, while this is the first time that South Dakota has made it to the FCS playoffs.

We’ll start by taking a look at the numbers. When South Dakota has the ball, they put up 519 ypg (2nd in the FCS) and 37.8 ppg (5th). On the ground, they accumulate 207 ypg (22nd) and through the air, 312 ypg (9th). USD’s O-Line is allowing 5.91 tackles for loss per game (45th) and their offense has lost 10 turnovers this season (6th).
The Nicholls State defense allows 343 ypg (39th) and 24 ppg (49th). Of those yards, 152 ypg are on the ground (62nd) and 190 are through the air (33rd). They are averaging 8 tackles for loss per game (12th) and have created 13 turnovers this season (104th).
In this situation, South Dakota has one of the better offenses in the entire FCS…assuming QB Chris Streveler is something close to fully healthy (he’s been banged up a lot over the last few weeks). He is a significant portion of the Coyote offense, so if he’s not doing well, things could get a little dicey for them. Assuming he’s relatively ok, USD will likely have a fairly balanced offense. Their run game is decent and NSU’s run defense is relatively mediocre, meanwhile the Coyotes’ passing attack is in the top 10 of the FCS, but NSU’s pass defense isn’t ranked too badly either.

On the other side, Nicholls State comes in putting up 395 ypg (45th) and 28 ppg (44th). They run for 196 ypg (26th) and pass for 199 ypg (69th). Their offensive line allows 4.73 tackles for loss per game (18th) and the offense has lost 23 turnovers (93rd).
USD’s defense allows 382 ypg (76th) and 23.5 ppg (42nd). Their run defense allows 137 ypg (41st) and pass defense 245 ypg (97th). They get 8.5 tackles for loss per game (3rd) and have gained 17 turnovers (72nd).
So, the Coyotes do seem to allow quite a few yards, especially against the pass. However, NSU’s strength is their run game, which is USD’s defensive strength. One big difference is that NSU has lost quite a few turnovers this season. USD isn’t great at gaining turnovers, especially with their best DB having been suspended (kicked off maybe?) from the team, but might be able to get one or two.

Obviously anything is possible in the playoffs…upsets happen every year, but I don’t really see this one being close unless Chris Streveler has to sit out for a significant portion of the game. He’s the type of QB who can turn a broken play into a first down on a regular basis, either by running the ball himself (he’s not easy to take down) or by scrambling and finding a receiver (he can make very accurate throws on the run while being pressured). I think he’ll probably be a bit too much for the Colonels defense to handle and the Coyotes will come away with about a 14-point victory and head over to Sam Houston State in a week.

Monmouth (9-2) at Northern Iowa (7-4)

This Season:

  • Monmouth University went 9-2 this season, with a 4-1 record in the Big South. OOC, they went 5-1, with wins over Lafayette, Lehigh, Hampton, Bucknell, and Holy Cross, and a loss to Albany. They were 5-0 at newly-renovated Kessler Stadium and 4-2 on the road. The Hawks’ schedule was ranked 215th in DI by Sagarin and 80th in the FCS by Massey.
  • Northern Iowa finished their regular season at 7-4 with a 6-2 conference record. OOC, they went 1-2 with a 42-24 loss to FBS Iowa State (Big 12), an OT 45-38 win over Cal Poly (Big Sky) and a 24-21 loss at eventual Big Sky Conference Champ Southern Utah. They were 4-1 at the UNI-Dome and 3-3 when traveling. The Panthers’ schedule is listed at 98th in DI by Sagarin and the #1 toughest schedule in the FCS by Massey.

History: This is the first time that Northern Iowa and Monmouth University have played each other. This is Monmouth’s first appearance in the playoffs and Northern Iowa’s 19th.

On with the digits…Northern Iowa’s offense marches down the field at a rate of 338 ypg (77th in the FCS) and puts up 28.5 ppg (41st). They get 111 ypg on the ground (93rd) and 227 ypg through the air (40th). The Panther offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has lost 20 turnovers this season (79th).
Monmouth’s defense has been holding teams to 380 ypg (74th) and 25.9 ppg (63rd). They only allow 131 ypg on the ground (35th) but give up 249 ypg through the air (102nd). They have gotten 5.5 tackles for loss per game (85th) and forced 17 turnovers this season (72nd).
So, UNI has a halfway decent passing game and Monmouth (do they go by MU?) is in the bottom 20 for pass defense. I see the Panthers have a pretty big day passing the ball. Monmouth has been pretty decent at stopping RBs, but I’m not sure they’ve faced a RB quite like UNI’s Marcus Weymiller.

When the Hawks have the ball, the put up 413 total ypg (33rd) and 35.2 ppg (15th). They get 210 ypg of that on the ground (20th) and 202 ypg through the air (65th). Their offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has turned the ball over 18 times (55th).
The Panthers’ defense allows 373 ypg (63rd) and 23.9 ppg (45th), with 130 ypg allowed against the run (34th) and 249 ypg through the air (93rd). They get 5.5 tackles for loss per game (92nd) and have forced 24 turnovers this season (36th).
In this case, Monmouth’s offensive strength is running the ball, but that also happens to be UNI’s defensive strength. I’m honestly surprised UNI’s tackles for loss is so low, because LB Ricky Neal is one of the best players I’ve seen this year at getting pressure on a QB. He’s leading the conference in sacks and is #2 in tackles for loss.

This is one of those situations where the pure stats don’t really tell the full story. According to most strength of schedule rankings, UNI has played a tougher schedule than all of the FCS…and really…a good chunk of FBS G5 teams, whereas Monmouth has played a schedule that is rated in the bottom 20% of the FCS. Another issue is likely going to be crowd noise. Monmouth has played in front of 5k or more fans three times this season…at Albany (6,384) which was a loss, at Hampton (5,123)…a win, and and at Kennesaw State (6,808)…a big loss. Meanwhile, UNI has averaged over 10.8k fans per home game this season, and while it’s no Fargodome or Wa-Griz Stadium, I can attest from personal experience that the UNI-Dome can get very loud at times. If the Hawks want to do well at the Dome, they’ll need to have really practiced non-verbal counts and cues. I think overall the Panther defense will make things very difficult for the Hawks and UNI will come away with about a 20 point win and move on to face South Dakota State again next weekend.

Big Sky Round Up Week 12

The FCS playoff field has been decided. Three Big Sky teams will be making an appearance in the field of 24. Northern Arizona, Southern Utah, and Weber State will represent the conference in the annual tournament. Reigning FCS champion James Madison collected the overall one seed while North Dakota State will be the two seed on the other side of the bracket.

Southern Utah won the auto-bid as the conference champion. The Thunderbirds were 7-1 in conference play, their only loss coming to Sacramento State. Southern Utah will have the seven seed in the tournament. Their second round opponent will be the winner of Weber State and Western Illinois. The Wildcats will be hosting their first ever playoff game in Ogden this week. Northern Arizona will be hosting Pioneer league champion San Diego. The winner of that game will move on to face North Dakota State in Fargo.

Left out of the playoff field were Eastern Washington, Montana, and Sacramento State. All three teams could have made a case for being in the playoff field, but alas, other teams were picked ahead of them. Eastern Washington athletic director Bill Chaves had some words for the playoff selection committee in a series of tweets on Sunday morning. Assistant Big Sky Commissioner Jon Kasper also had a few choice Tweets for the playoff committee.

Onto the week’s action..

In the annual Treasure State Super Bowl Montana State hosted rival Montana. The Cats and Griz have been battling for 118 years.  Montana could not get the best of the Bobcats in this one. Montana State quarterback Chris Murray rushed for 98 yards and rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown. In total the Bobcats rushed for 322 yards and four touchdowns in their Saturday win. Montana collected 326 yards through the air, but a costly Gresch Jensen fumble deep on Montana territory all but sealed the deal for the Cats. On Monday Montana athletic director, and Skyline Sports first reporting, that Bob Stitt’s contract at Montana would not be renewed and a coaching search would ensue.

Cal Poly and Northern Colorado finished their seasons with the Big Sky’s weekly pillow fight. The Mustangs showed true pillow fight material by giving up 42 straight points to Northern Colorado. Northern Colorado quarterback Conor Regan, playing in relief for Jacob Knipp, threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Bears. Kicker Collin Root scored 10 of the Bears’ 42 points. Pretty good day for a kicker. Cal Poly will likely try to forget this season as soon as possible, one of their worst since joining the Big Sky Conference. The Mustangs finished 1-10 on the season. The Bears finished a respectable 3-7.

Weber State emphatically made their case for a playoff spot, and a chance for a conference title if Southern Utah faltered, on Saturday. The Wildcats flat whipped the Idaho State Bengals 35-7 on Ogden on Saturday. As a reward they will get to host a playoff game. Stefan Cantwell accounted for 337 yards and four touchdowns. Idaho State didn’t account for that many yards as a team, if that’s any indicator how their Saturday went. The Wildcats will host Western Illinois on Saturday.

Northern Arizona and Southern Utah did battle in their final game of the season in Cedar City. If Northern Arizona wanted to get off of the bubble and send Jerome Souers out on a winning note they were going to have beat the Thunderbirds. They did neither of those. Southern Utah won by 28 points and wrapped up the Big Sky’s auto-bid to the playoffs. Patrick Tyler had 238 yards passing and 31 yards rushing with two touchdowns. In a strange turn of events, even with NAU losing and getting a playoff spot, the University announced on Monday afternoon that the Lumberjacks would retain Jerome Souers for next season. Also announced was Andy Thompson would be named assistant head coach, an obvious succession plan to Souers. Northern Arizona will host San Diego on Saturday, while Southern Utah will wait out the winner of Weber State and Western Illinois.

In the annual Causeway Classic the Sacramento State Hornets hosted the UC Davis Aggies. Sacramento State somehow stayed within grasp of the playoff field. The Hornets and Aggies racked up an impressive amount of yards in a game that didn’t particular matter for anything important other than central valley bragging rights. They combined for 1250 yards in a 52-47 win for the Hornets. UC Davis made it a game after falling behind. They scored 13 unanswered in the fourth quarter. UC Davis got the ball back late but couldn’t convert on fourth and six to keep their chance at a win alive. Helluva season, Hornets.

In the final game of the day Eastern Washington pushed to keep its playoff hopes alive and all they had to do was beat Portland State. I would like to say this game was close, and it was for two quarters. Then Eastern Washington exploded for 28 points in the third quarter and it wasn’t close anymore. A turning point early in the game for Eastern Washington was Gage Gubrud somehow being sacked in the end zone and simultaneously flinging the ball over his back shoulder resulted in an incomplete pass. The Eagles then went on a 99 yard scoring drive. That pretty much summed up Portland State’s day. Eastern Washington did not make the playoffs despite having a resume that suggested they should.

Scores

Montana 23
Montana State 31

Cal Poly 0
Northern Colorado 42

Idaho State 7
Weber State 35

Northern Arizona 20
Southern Utah 48

UC Davis 47
Sacramento State 52

Portland State 33
Eastern Washington 59

Big Sky Player of the Week

The Big Sky Player of the Week this week is Weber State quarterback Stefan Cantwell. Cantwell was 21/29 for 262 yards and 3 TDs, while rushing 16 times for 75 yards and 1 TD as Weber State wrapped up their season with a win against Idaho State.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gubrud, QB, Eastern Washington – 17/32 for 445 yards, 4TD, 8 rush for 67 yards, 1 TD
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 5 receptions for 86 yards
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 13 receptions for 173 yards, 1 rush for 42 yards, 1 TD
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – 30/49 for 326 yards, 1 TD 1 INT, 6 rush for 35 yards
Patrick Tyler, QB, Southern Utah – 20/30 for 238 yards, 1 INT, 10 rushes 31 yards 2 TD

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Weber State
3. Eastern Washington
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. Sacramento State
7. Montana State
8. UC-Davis
9. Northern Colorado
10. Idaho State
11. North Dakota
12. Cal Poly
13. Portland State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

There’s no hot takes I can offer that can match what Bill Chaves and Jon Kasper tweeted out this weekend. They tweeted pure fire at the playoff committee for leaving out Eastern Washington, not seeding Southern Utah high enough, and basically said the playoff committee has their head in their … darker body cavities. They both make a strong case, and mildly suggest that the playoff committee try watching football in the Mountain and Pacific time zones someday.

The Jerome Souers story is totally nuts. He was told early in the season that he would not be retained as their head coach at the end of the season. Effectively him and his staff were lame ducks. Over the weekend the NAU athletic director took a new job at UTSA. NAU’s president decided Sauers was getting a raw deal and decided on his own to retain him. Presumably Souers had done enough this season to warrant not being pushed out the door. Bizarre circumstances in Flagstaff.

Montana firing Bob Stitt is a puzzler. 21-14, 1-1 in playoff games. Griz fans are very demanding of their coaches and nothing short of Nick Saban success is good enough. Now if only Montana had Alabama finances to justify this kind of outrage. That being said, that’s college football nowadays, what have you done for me today? I think Montana was a year away from being a very formidable football team. However, in the Treasure State beating the cats is a higher priority than most anything. Can’t face your co-workers on Monday after a loss.

That said, Bruce Barnum went 0-11 and will still be the head coach at Portland State next season.

Eastern Washington not getting into the playoffs was a bit of a sham. Just looking at the playoff bracket I can see some teams in there in the “do not belong” category. I’m looking at you Monmouth, Nicholls State, and just because it pisses me off, San Diego. Lehigh will be in the playoff field with a 5-6 record and not getting any votes in the STATS or AGS top 25 polls. However, because their sham of a conference is awarded an auto-bid, here we are. Colgate, by the way? 7-4, 5-1 on the season. Their only conference loss? Lehigh. Thus, your autobid.

My winners for next week: Stony Brook, Weber State, Northern Iowa, New Hampshire, Kennesaw State, South Dakota, Elon, Northern Arizona.

My champion: James Madison d. North Dakota State.

MVFC – Week 12 in Review

MVFC LogoAnd here we are again once more…another football season has come and gone (well…regular season, anyway). I’d say that it seems like it goes faster every year, but really…isn’t that just life? I plan on going into each team a little more in-depth a little later on into the postseason; maybe do a brief “year in review” of each team, who they’re saying goodbye to, hope for the future, that kind of stuff. No promises, but I’ll do my best.

Now that the regular season has wrapped up, we can take a look at the final conference standings (ordered by conference record, then by overall record).

School Overall Conference
North Dakota State 10-1 7-1
South Dakota State 9-2 6-2
Northern Iowa 7-4 6-2
Western Illinois 8-3 5-3
South Dakota 7-4 4-4
Illinois State 6-5 4-4
Youngstown State 6-5 4-4
Southern Illinois 4-7 2-6
Missouri State 3-8 2-6
Indiana State 0-11 0-8

Missouri State at Youngstown State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
MSU 0 0 3 7 10
YSU 10 14 0 14 38

Quick Hits:

  • MSU – QB Peyton Huslig only threw for 45 yards, but also ran for 124 yards
  • MSU – S Jared Beshore led the Bears with 9 tackles, 1 for loss
  • MSU – Last week’s MVFC Newcomer of the Week, LB Angelo Garbutt, had 8 tackles (1 for loss) and a forced fumble
  • YSU – RB Tevin McCaster ran for 181 yards and 2 TDs
  • YSU – S Jalyn Powell led the Penguins with 9 tackles, 1.5 for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 QB hurry
  • YSU – WR Samuel St. Surin recovered a botched snap in the end zone for a TD and won the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award

The first half was all Penguins, putting up 10 in the first quarter and 14 in the second, while holding MSU to no points. MSU finally got on the board with a FG in the 3rd. In the final quarter of the game, YSU had two TD runs that sandwiched a MSU TD run, which pushed the game even further out of reach for the Bears and gave the Penguins the 38-10 victory.

Youngstown State finishes the regular season at 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the conference.
Missouri State drops to 3-8 overall, 2-6 against MVFC teams

My Pick in Review:

I said: Penguins by 7
It was: Penguins by 28
Well…YSU has been kinda on-again-off-again this season, getting shut out by Illinois State, then putting up 66 the next week on Indiana State. I guess I figured this would be a lower-scoring game for YSU, and I was wrong. I did get the pick right, though, so that counts for something…right?

#2 North Dakota State at #26 Illinois State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
NDSU 0 0 13 7 20
ILSU 0 0 0 7 7

Quick Hits:

  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick only threw for 15 yards, but ran for 65 and 2 TDs
  • NDSU – RB Bruce Anderson ran for 95 yards and a TD
  • NDSU – LB Chris Board and SS Robbie Grimsley led the team with 7 tackles each, with Board having .5 for loss and 1 pass breakup
  • ILSU – RB James Robinson ran for 96 yards and 1 TD
  • ILSU – LB Barry Brannon led the Redbirds in tackles with 10, including 1.5 for loss and a QB hurry

This game was a full-on “Snow Bowl” with significant wind and near-blizzard conditions, so obviously that stats were significantly hindered by the conditions of the game. No team was really able to get anything significant going in the first half, which led to a couple of big old zeros on the scoreboard at halftime. In the 3rd, however, NDSU was able to get their run game going in a couple of drives that led to TDs to go up 13-0. In the 4th, ILSU finally put points on the board with a running TD of their own, but the Bison answered back immediately with a 3-play, 40 second TD drive with under 3 minutes left in the game to put the final nail in the coffin on a 20-7 win over the ranked Redbirds.

North Dakota State finishes the regular season at 10-1 and 7-1 in the MVFC. They are the #2 seed in the playoffs and will sit out the first weekend awaiting the winner of San Diego and Northern Arizona.
Illinois State ends up at 6-5 with a 4-4 conference record.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 14
It was: Bison by 13
Damn you blocked XP attempt. Otherwise…nailed it.

Southern Illinois (4-6, 2-5 MVFC) at #11 Western Illinois

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SIU 0 0 0 14 14
WIU 0 14 7 7 28

Quick Hits:

  • SIU – QB Matt DeSomer throws for 62 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs, while leading the team in rushing with 73 yards on the ground
  • SIU – S Ryan Neal led the team in tackles with 9 total (6 solo)
  • SIU – P Lane Reazin kicked 6 times for a 43.2 yard per punt average, which was impressive considering the 20+ MPH wind that North/South, so half the game was into a stiff breeze for each team
  • WIU – WR Jaelon Acklin catches for 93 yards and 1 TD, and breaks the school record for receiving yards in a season (previously set by Lance Lenior in 2015)
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor again leads the team in tackles with 16 including 1 for loss and finished the regular season as the 2017 FCS leader in tackles, by nearly a full tackle per game over the #2 player. He also received the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award
  • WIU – DBs Xavier Rowe and David Griffith each have INTs and help the Leatherneck defense reach 9 straight quarters of football played (going back to 3rd quarter against Illinois State) without allowing a point

Again the WIU defense steps up huge for most of the game. On a day where the wind played a significant factor (making things much easier for SIU in the 2nd and 4th quarters), the SIU offense was held to 6 total first downs, with the Salukis finally getting first down #3 halfway through the 4th quarter. The first part of the game, pretty much neither offense was able to figure out a rhythm in the blustery conditions. It wasn’t until under 2 minutes left in the first half when WIU went ahead with their first TD. A couple plays into SIU’s next drive, WIU got an INT and then on the next play, threw a 52-yard TD bomb to standout WR Jaelon Acklin. Early in the 3rd, WIU picked up another TD on a 17-yard Max Norris run, and then midway through the 4th, another Acklin TD…this time 8 yards on the ground to put the Leathernecks ahead 28-0. The WIU defense ended up taking the foot off the gas a bit near the end of the game and allowed SIU, with the wind at their backs, to pick up their first points of the game with around 6 minutes left. They tacked on another one with just over 3 minutes left, but the Leathernecks would hold the Salukis for the remainder and win 28-14.

Western Illinois finishes the regular season at 8-3…their first 8-win season since 2003, with a 5-3 conference record. They will head out west to take on 9-2 Weber State in a first round playoff matchup in Ogden, Utah.
Southern Illinois ends their season at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 12
It was: Leathernecks by 14
Pretty nearly nailed that one. I was hoping for another shutout like last week, but I suppose holding another team to a goose egg was a bit too much to ask.

#5 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-2 MVFC) at #15 South Dakota

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SDSU 0 17 7 7 31
USD 0 14 7 7 28

Quick Hits:

  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion threw for 299 yards and 3 TDs with 1 INT and won the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week award
  • SDSU – TE Dallas Goedert caught 11 receptions for 117 yards, including this amazing grab that he was also incredibly lucky on (I’ve seen more than one receiver come down like that and end up with a nasty broken arm)
  • SDSU – LB Christian Rozeboom led the team in tackles with 10, 2 for loss, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass breakup
  • SDSU – WR/KR Cade Johnson had 124 all-purpose yards with 1 TD averaging 21.3 yards on 4 kickoff returns and had 39 yards and 1 TD receiving. He was awarded the MVFC Newcomer of the Week award
  • USD – QB Chris Streveler threw for 286 yards, 2 INTs, and 1 INT, while also running for 65 yards
  • USD – RBs Michael Frederick and Kai Henry each had 100+ yards rushing, Frederick with 123 yards and 2 TDs, and true freshman Henry with 109 yards
  • USD – DB Isaac Armstead led the team in tackles with 9 including 2 for loss (1 sack), had 1 INT returned 17 yards, and a pass breakup

Unlike the last few games, this one wasn’t significantly impacted by the weather. It also ended up being the closest of all the conference games this weekend. Lots of defense in the first quarter…bunch of punts and an INT…meant no points. Apparently they were saving most of them for the 2nd quarter because the Jackrabbits got the scoring started with a FG early in the quarter. They tacked on a TD before USD put up their own TD. That was quickly followed by a quick SDSU drive capped by a 69-yard TD pass…which was itself quickly answered by a short USD drive finishing with a 17-yard TD run, which would put the score at 17-14 at halftime, with “State” holding the narrow lead. Late in the 3rd, USD would get their first lead of the game on a 10-yard TD pass, but SDSU would take it right back with their own TD drive. SDSU would add one another score with under 5 minutes left in the game, but USD would end up keeping it close with one of their own with just over 2 minutes left. At that point the Jackrabbits had the 3-point lead, which they would hold onto for the win.

South Dakota State ends their regular season at 9-2 overall, 6-2 in the MVFC. They were awarded the #5 seed in the playoffs and will host the winner of next weekend’s matchup between Northern Iowa and Monmouth University.
South Dakota drops to 7-4 in their regular season, with a 4-4 conference record. Despite losing their last 3 games, they were able to find their way into the playoffs and will head down to Thibodaux, LA to take on 8-3 Nicholls State next weekend.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 4
It was: Jackrabbits by 3
Hey, I think I’m getting pretty good at this picking thing.

Indiana State at #17 Northern Iowa

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
INSU 3 0 0 0 3
UNI 17 10 7 7 41

Quick Hits:

  • INSU – RB LeMonte Booker ran for 99 yards and led the team in receiving with 57 yards
  • INSU – LB Katrell Moss led the team in tackles with 12 (.5 for loss) and 2 pass breakups
  • INSU – PK Jerry Nunez got the only points for the Sycamores on a 48-yard FG
  • UNI – QB Colton Howell threw for 216 yards and 2 TDs with 1 INT. He also ran for 35 yards
  • UNI – RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 105 yards and 2 TDs, while WR Daurice Fountain matched his scoring with 80 receiving yards and 2 TDs
  • UNI – LBs Rickey Neal and Duncan Ferch, and DB Nikholi Jaghai led the Panthers in tackles with 6 each. Neal also had 1 sack; Jaghai had an INT; and Ferch had a pass breakup

Indiana State vs a ranked team…do we really need to talk about this?…ok, fine.
The Sycamores started off the scoring with a FG early in the first quarter to take their first and only lead of the game by 3 points. UNI would answer with 2 TDs and a FG of their own to go ahead 17-3. In the second quarter, UNI had another FG and another TD to take a 27-3 lead into halftime. A TD in each of the last two quarters put the Panthers ahead with a final score of 41-3.

Northern Iowa finishes the regular season on a high note with a 7-4 overall record and 6-2 in the conference. They will host 9-2 Monmouth University at the UNIDome next weekend.
Indiana State finishes a heavily disappointing winless season with a 0-11 record…8 of those in the MVFC.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Panthers by 30
It was: Panthers by 38
Not bad…could have been closer on the margin, but pretty solid. Specifically what I said was “I think the Sycamores will struggle to get points on the board this game, and while the Panther offense might not put up the 42 points that have been averaged against them in the last few games, I think they’ll get close.” So…close to 42 points…how about 41?…close enough?

I was 49-15 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 5-0 in my picks which puts me at 54-15 for the regular season, which works out to 78.2% correct picks. Not too bad…not amazing, but decent, I’d say.

Later this week I’ll preview the 3 MVFC playoff games coming up the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

2017 Final AGS Bracket PROJECTION

This is not, I repeat not the official NCAA FCS Bracket.  This is what it should like when it comes out.  I hope they get it right like they did last year.  We are projecting based off of our AGS Top 25 Poll which has been a very good predictor of playoff teams over the years.

The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket

Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both the seeds and at larges as that poll has been one of the better predictors of both those selections and is a combination of many voters and not just that of one opinion. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess at automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines the committee uses from the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together. You can see those guidelines in the link below.

Championship Manual Link

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/fi…l_20170914.pdf

Last four in: Delaware, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, McNeese St

First four out: New Hampshire, Monmouth, Sacramento State, Austin Peay

Next four out: Montana, Illinois State, Nicholls State, Richmond

The Seeds: The seeds remained almost the same as last week with Southern Utah leap frogging Wofford to swap 7 and 8 seeds after the Thunderbirds finished off with a dominating performance to tie up the Big Sky crown. Although Wofford dropped one spot despite a respectable showing against FBS and SEC foe South Carolina. The AGS top 8 have been consistent the past couple of weeks and I expect the committee will come up with the same 8 seeds. However, the order is still very much unsure as we haven’t seen a committee ranking after two weekends of competition.

The Bubble: Eastern Washington and McNeese St have moved into the bracket following wins to finish out their seasons. Montana and New Hampshire were both eliminated from the field following losses with the Wildcats just missing as our unfortunate first team out. Delaware was the last team in still holding onto a spot after their loss this weekend, but putting them square in the bubble. Kennesaw St also moved into the field securing the Big South auto which eliminated Monmouth although the Hawks sit as the second team out. Sacramento State and Austin Peay moved into the first group of teams out finishing out the season strong, but that wasn’t quite enough to get them into the bracket.

*Note: Elon/Furman and Samford/Kennesaw St played OOC matchups earlier in the season. The committee does try and avoid these matchups barring it doesn’t create additional flights. As this field was set, splitting up these matchups created additional travel. Conference rematches are not allowed in the first round.

Conference Breakdown Below

Automatic Qualifiers At- Large Bids
Big Sky Southern Utah Weber St
Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona
Big South Kennesaw St
CAA James Madison Stony Brook
Elon
Delaware
MVFC North Dakota St South Dakota St
Western Illinois
Norhtern Iowa
South Dakota
NEC Central Connecticut
OVC Jacksonville St
Patroit Lehigh
Pioneer San Diego
Southern Wofford Samford
Furman
Southland Central Arkansas Sam Houston St
McNeese St

AGS Poll: Week 12 Top 25 Results

Selection Sunday 2017 is here and with that comes the final regular season release of the AGS Poll. There wasn’t much movement at the top this week but towards the middle and bottom there was a figurative earthquake with 8 of the 11 teams ranked between #12 and #22 sustaining losses to end their regular season. The top 5 remained unchanged as James Madison went wire-to-wire as #1 in the regular season picking up all 64 first place votes after their undefeated regular season. North Dakota State, Central Arkansas, Jacksonville State, and South Dakota State all maintained their positions at #2-#5 after holding serve this week with wins.

As for teams moving up Samford jumped 5 spots to #13 after snapping Furman’s 7 game win streak. Kennesaw St was the biggest riser of the week jumping 7 spots to #17 after dominating Monmouth in the de facto Big South championship game. McNeese and Eastern Washington took advantage of teams in front of them losing to move up 4 and 5 spots to #19 and #20, respectively, despite winning games they were expected to win. Yale made their first appearance, and also the first appearance by an Ivy League team, in the top 25 this year jumping 5 spots to come in at #25 after finishing their season 9-1.

As for the teams that went the other way Furman dropped 4 spots to #18 after dropping their aforementioned game against Samford. Northern Arizona dropped 5 spots to #21 following their loss to Southern Utah. Several bubble teams like South Dakota, Furman, Northern Arizona, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Monmouth didn’t drop too far due to the teams around them all losing as the furthest any of those teams dropped was 3 spots. Montana dropped out of the top 25 after losing their final regular season game to in-state rival Montana State.

The CAA and MVFC led the way in terms of conference representation each placing 5 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the Big Sky with 4, the Southland and SOCON with 3 each, and the Big South with 2 teams in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1600  64
2 North Dakota State Bison 1512
3 Central Arkansas Bears 1449
4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1399
5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1370
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1227
7 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1208
8 Wofford Terriers 1137
9 Stony Brook Seawolves 1032
10 Weber State Wildcats 1019
11 Western Illinois Leathernecks 995
12 North Carolina A&T Aggies 799
13 Samford Bulldogs 795
14 Northern Iowa Panthers 770
15 Elon Phoenix 675
16 South Dakota Coyotes 593
17 Kennessaw State Owls 547
18 Furman Paladins 472
19 McNeese State Cowboys 441
20 Eastern Washington Eagles 407
21 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 332
22 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 185
23 New Hampshire Wildcats 129
24 Monmouth Hawks 113
25 Yale Bulldogs 104
ORV:
26 Grambling State Tigers 102
27 Sacramento State Hornets 83
28 Austin Peay Governors 71
29 Montana Grizzlies 68
30 Illinois State Redbirds 58
31 Nicholls State Colonels 39
32 Richmond Spiders 20
33 Western Carolina Catamounts 18
34 Colgate Raiders 17
35 Central Connecticut State Blue Devils 7
36 Youngstown State Penguins 4
37 San Diego Toreros 2
38 Columbia Lions 1

 

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?199205-AGS-Poll-Results-WEEK-12-SELECTION-SUNDAY-POLL

NOTE: The FCS Selection Show begins at 11AM ET on ESPNU. Tune in to see if the AGS Poll can maintain it’s position as the top FCS poll in the nation in terms of projecting playoff teams and playoff seeds.

Patriot League: Week 12 Preview

The final week is upon us! Ferris Bueller’s prophetic statement regarding the concept of life and time certainly applies to football season! It feels like if you blink you miss it! Not everything has been pretty to watch this season in the Patriot League but in some ways that’s the “beauty” of the league. With a championship still up for grabs and #153 on tap this weekend might prove to be the best of the year!

Bucknell (5-5, 2-3) at Fordham (3-7, 2-3) – Nov. 18th 12 PM Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Bucknell will try to nail down their first winning season since 2014 as they head to the Big Apple to take on Fordham. Not only will Bucknell be looking to finish above .500, they’ll also be trying to snap a 4 game losing streak against Fordham. The Bison last defeated Fordham in 2012 when they snuck past the Rams 27-24. In order for Bucknell to close out the season on a positive note the ground attack must produce like it has the last two weeks. For much of 2017 the combo of DeFloria (401 yards) and Freshnock (513 yards) were combining for less than 80 yards a game which is a big reason why the Bison failed to seriously challenge for the league title. John Chiarolanzio is once against expected to get the start at quarterback. If the Bison want to take a step forward in 2018 they’ll need better production from the offensive line and the quarterback position.

To call Fordham’s season a disappointment would be a rather significant understatement. Before the season started the Rams seemed poised to be a Top 25 team and return to the FCS Playoffs. They returned arguably the greatest running back in school history and one of the best ever in FCS, in Chase Edmonds (392 yards 3 TDs) as well as a talented, veteran quarterback (Kevin Anderson) to lead the offense. The defense had been an issue in recent years but the unit returned quite a bit of experience from an 8 win team. As it turned it they got steamrolled by Army on opening night, Edmonds got hurt in week 2, the defense went into the tank and they were never able to recover. Now all that’s left is to make sure Edmonds, Anderson, Adeyeye, Coyle and the rest of the seniors that were brought in by Joe Moorhead finish out their careers with one final win at home.

Both teams should enter this game motivated. Fordham is coming off a late season bye so they’ll be rested and eager to send the seniors off in style. Bucknell obviously wants to finish with a 6-5 record and get over the Fordham hump. Assuming that Kevin Anderson plays, which is expected, Fordham has the advantage on offense. Overall, Bucknell’s defense has been pretty good all year (22.9 ppg allowed) but they weren’t immune to some ugliness at times. Fordham’s offensive trio of Anderson, Edmonds and Longi should be able to make just enough plays to eke out a 4th and final win.

Prediction: Fordham 24 Bucknell 20

Colgate (6-4, 4-1) at Georgetown (1-9, 0-5) – Nov. 18th 1 PM Cooper Field Washington D.C.

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Colgate takes the long 7 hour bus ride to our nation’s capital to take on the hapless Hoyas in what is an extremely important game for the Raiders. A Colgate win guarantees them at least a share of their 9th Patriot League Title. If Lafayette is able to beat Lehigh, Colgate would then earn the outright league title and the automatic bid to the FCS Playoffs. Coach Hunt has done an excellent job getting this year’s team to improve each and every week; especially the offense. The “O” has made tremendous strides under freshman quarterback Grant Breneman (1,457 yards 15 TDs 4 INTs, 369 yards rushing 6 TDs). Hunt made the bold decision to bench Carmine Scarfone in favor of Breneman after only 2 games. As it’s turned out, Colgate might have found their next Ryan Vena in Breneman. The defense has been quite tough as well despite playing the first month of the season without All-American Rush End Pat Afriyie. Outside of two bad outings against Furman and Lehigh, the “D” has played at a championship level.

Georgetown enters this game on the complete opposite side of the spectrum from Colgate. The Hoyas have not won since their season opener against Campbell. Georgetown is also riding a 14 game Patriot League losing streak that dates back to 17-9 win over Bucknell on 10/24/15. Needless to say, the once proud Georgetown football program is struggling and there’s very little reason for optimism without more of a commitment from the administration. Coach Sgarlatta has done a tremendous job getting his team to compete week in and week out. The Hoyas are rarely blown out in league play because they continue to play tough, physical defense. However, the dearth of playmakers year after year on offense has incapacitated the offense (252 ypg 118th in FCS/12.8 ppg 118th in FCS). Until the Hoyas are able to find a way to land talented skill position players the losing is going to continue.

On paper the only way Colgate loses this game is if they literally don’t show up. The Raiders have been playing with such focus and precision in recent weeks that it’s impossible to see them being the team that breaks the Hoyas dubious losing streaks. Breneman and company simply must protect the ball on offense. The Raider special teams can’t allow any big plays either. Georgetown’s defense will make the Raider offense work but there’s no way the Hoyas can score enough to win without help. The Hoyas will avoid being shutout 3 straight games to conclude the season but that’s as good as the moral victory will get.

If Colgate does make the playoffs they could be a major headache with the right matchup. If not, they still have an excellent core that seems capable of big things in 2018.

Prediction: Colgate 24 Georgetown 3

#153 Lafayette (3-7, 3-2) at Lehigh (4-6, 4-1) – Nov. 18th 12:30 PM Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Despite their disappointing record, Lehigh has a chance to capture their conference best 12th Patriot League Championship and a bid into the FCS Playoffs with a win over Lafayette in college football’s most played rivalry. In a rivalry of this magnitude the cliché is always to “throw out the records” and in this case the saying is true. Despite both team’s having sub .500 records these are two of the top teams in what has been a rather weak year for Patriot League football. What makes this game so fascinating is how each team has arrived here. Lehigh’s high powered offense has lived up to their preseason billing but the defense (40.2 ppg allowed, 488 ypg allowed) has regressed. It is hard to fathom how the defense has gotten worse given how bad the unit has been the previous few years. Conversely, Lafayette’s season has been defined by an excellent defense and statistically (217 ypg, 123rd in FCS) the worst offense in the country. Overall, first year John Garrett has done a solid job creating any identity on defense for the program moving forward

If Lafayette is to crash the Lehigh championship party the defense will certainly be the reason why. The Leopard “D” has been especially lights out in league play (11.8 ppg). The strength has been the pass defense (8 pass TDs allowed) which is led by sure fire 1st Team All-PL CB Phillip Parham. It will be interesting to see which one of Lehigh’s dynamic wide receivers Parham spends most of his time covering. How the Leopard front 7 contains Lehigh’s Dominic Bragalone will likely determine which unit (LU O vs LC D) wins the battle. If Lafayette does have a weakness on defense it is their ability to stop the run (180.8 ypg allowed) which has to be a concern against one of the top running backs in FCS.

In order for Lehigh to notch their 3rd straight win over Lafayette the defense must continue their recent trend of solid play and Mayes can’t afford to turn the ball over. Should Lehigh’s defense continue to play like it has the last two weeks they will have no trouble holding Lafayette’s inept offense down. However, O’Malley has the best set of wide receivers Lehigh has faced in several weeks. If Lehigh’s defensive line can’t get pressure on the freshman signal caller the Leopards will make plays downfield. Keep an eye on DT Tyler Cavenas. The senior has been making huge plays on defense and special teams. The leaky Leopard offensive line will have their hands full with Cavenas.

This game has everything (minus sexy records) a football fan could want, arch-rivals, championship implications, strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness and inclement weather to spice things up. Lehigh is the better team but not by much. If the Lehigh defense can’t hold Lafayette to 17 or less points and they lose the turnover battle the Mountain Hawks are in trouble. This is John Garrett’s first taste of the rivalry but there’s no doubt he’s well versed in the importance of this game. He’ll have the Leopards well prepared and emotionally ready to play. Lehigh needs to match their intensity for 60 minutes and protect the ball in order to win. The Mountain Hawks should have just enough to continue their mastery of Lafayette this decade.

Prediction: Lehigh 20 Lafayette 13

MVFC – Week 12 Preview

MVFC LogoThis is it folks. The final weekend of the regular season. Pretty much regardless of what happens, NDSU and SDSU will be in the playoffs and YSU, SIU, MSU, and INSU will not. For UNI, USD, WIU, and ILSU, it’s likely most of them will be, but there are some crazy scenarios that could play out that could exclude some or all of them. They have one more chance to make themselves look good to the playoff committee before the final decision comes down.
As a preeminent wordsmith of the modern age once said:

“If you had one shot, or one opportunity, to seize everything you ever wanted, in one moment, would you capture it, or just let it slip…Yo”

I plan on being a bit more brief on my game rundowns this week. We’re to the point where, if you’ve kept up with the articles and pay attention to FCS (and MVFC) football, you’re pretty well aware of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. I’ll try to point out a few interesting bits, but I think most everyone is familiar with the Chris Streveler show, NDSU’s defense, or whatever the hell is going on over in Terre Haute.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings and all stats listed are only in MVFC play from here on out (unless otherwise stated).

So, here are the games this week:
11:00 AM – Missouri State (3-7, 2-5 MVFC) at Youngstown State (5-5, 3-4 MVFC)
12:00 PM – #2 North Dakota State (9-1, 6-1 MVFC) at #26 Illinois State (6-4, 4-3 MVFC)
1:00 PM – Southern Illinois (4-6, 2-5 MVFC) at #11 Western Illinois (7-3, 4-3 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #5 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-2 MVFC) at #15 South Dakota (7-3, 4-3 MVFC)
4:00 PM – Indiana State (0-10, 0-7 MVFC) at #17 Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

Missouri State at Youngstown State

Last Week:

  • Missouri State lost to Northern Iowa, 25-10
  • Youngstown State won at Southern Illinois, 28-20

History:
The Bears and Penguins have played 19 times starting in 1996. YSU holds the 14-5 series lead and last year’s meeting was a 65-20 YSU victory in Springfield, MO.

YSU’s once-promising season will get one final tally this weekend; a tally that will determine if the Penguins will have a winning season, or if the defending FCS Championship runners-up will finish with a losing record this year. Their strengths are in their pass defense, which is second in the conference, and their ability to move the ball on the ground with RB Tevin McCaster putting up nearly 89 ypg. The Penguin O-Line has allowed 33 sacks this season, which is the worst in the conference (by a significant margin), and on defense, they are also worst at getting sacks, only getting to opposing QBs a total of 9 times.

MSU, who was expected to be bad this season, mostly is, but has put together a few wins here or there to help separate themselves from the last place team, beating Indiana State by 39 and then Southern Illinois by 8 in back to back weekends. A win would equal last year’s 4-7 record. Missouri State has the 3rd best rushing offense in the conference and they’re roughly in the middle of the conference for their pass defense. The rest of their defense has been rather swiss cheese-like. They have one of the best kick return guys in the conference which can help with field position battles.

I think the two teams are actually fairly similar now…both decent running teams, both with good pass defenses. I think this is going to be a fairly low scoring “ground game”, although overall, I feel like the Penguins have a bit of an advantage with a (depending on who plays) decent running QB as well as a really good RB. In a matchup that has pretty much no bearing on the playoffs, I think Youngstown State gets the home victory by 7 points to close out their season with a winning record.

#2 North Dakota State at #26 Illinois State

Last Week:

  • North Dakota State beat South Dakota, 49-14
  • Illinois State lost at South Dakota State, 27-24 in OT

History:
The Bison and Redbirds have played 9 times starting in 2007, with NDSU having the 7-2 series lead. Last year’s meeting was a 31-10 NDSU victory at their Homecoming game and the matchup before that was the FCS Championship Game for the 2014 season and unofficial MVFC Championship game. NDSU won that one as well, 29-27.

NDSU is already in the playoffs, likely already a seed regardless of the results of this game, but they are looking to stay with a high seed so that they’re able to play the majority of their playoff games at home. Last weekend they came out angry after the previous week’s loss and demolished a good South Dakota team. NDSU has the best rushing offense in the conference, but is middle of the pack on their passing game. Like I said before, their defense is solid on pretty much all facets. They also win “in the trenches” where they are the best team in the conference at both not allowing sacks themselves and getting sacks on the opposition. The special teams can be a bit suspect at times though, with a “spotty” kicking game, and the 3rd lowest punt return average in the conference.

ILSU has their backs against the wall needing a win to make it into the playoffs. By most estimations, they’re in a situation where they win and they’re in, they lose and they’re out…so, you know…no pressure. They had an unexpected win over South Dakota a month ago, and last week took SDSU to OT (and very likely could have won if they’d been a little more agressive on play calling near the end of regulation). The Redbirds have the second best scoring defense in the conference and a pretty decent run game, with RB James Robinson putting up just under 100 ypg.

This could be a pretty close game, with the Redbirds fighting to keep their season alive. I think they’ll be able to keep it close, but unfortunately, I think they had their best chance last week against SDSU and they weren’t able to come away with the win. This game will be tougher, and I don’t think it’ll make it to OT. North Dakota State wins this one by 14 and hits the playoffs with one of the top few seeds.

Southern Illinois at #11 Western Illinois

Last Week:

  • Southern Illinois lost to Youngstown State, 28-20
  • Western Illinois won at Indiana State, 45-0

History: The Salukis and Leathernecks have matched up 62 times going back to 1933. WIU leads the all-time series 35-23-4. Lately it’s been a rather “streaky” series with WIU winning 18 straight from 1984-2001, then SIU winning 9 straight from 2002-2010. Last year’s game was a 44-34 Saluki win in Carbondale that ended WIU’s playoff hopes.

Southern Illinois was rolling along with one of the better offenses in the conference, until their starting QB suffered a season-ending broken hand (throwing hand). Their replacement QB, former backup Safety Matt DeSomer, is very much a running QB, putting up less than 100 passing yards per game in the two games he’s played. In those two games, the Salukis lost to Missouri State and Youngstown State, both in Carbondale. He is helped by the SIU O-Line, who has only given up 8 sacks this season. SIU’s pass defense has been pretty decent, but they have trouble stopping the run…ahead of only INSU and MSU in their run defense. They also have a pretty solid punter and lead the conference in net punting average.

Last year, Western Illinois won 3 straight OOC with the 3rd being a FBS team, lost their first conference game against a team from the Mt. Rushmore state, had a close conference win, a win over Missouri State, and then a loss to NDSU to put them at 5-2 going into the final 4 weeks of the season.
This year, Western Illinois won 3 straight OOC with the 3rd being a FBS team, lost their first conference game against a team from the Mt. Rushmore state, had a close conference win, a win over Missouri State, and then a loss to NDSU to put them at 5-2 going into the final 4 weeks of the season…(notice a trend?)
In both cases, WIU needed two more wins to get them into playoff contention. Last year, they went 1-3 in those final 4 weeks, 6-5 for the season and missed the playoffs. This is where the parallels end…this year, WIU has gone 2-1 in 3 of those 4 and have a good chance at 3-1 to finish 8-3 to get into the playoffs. Even with a loss, WIU has a very good chance at still getting in at 7-4. The Leathernecks have a very balanced offense with the top yardage receiver in the conference, a couple of solid RBs, and an experience QB who can take advantage of all of his weapons. Because of this they have the second-best passing offense in the conference. On defense, the ability to defend passes has been suspect, although significantly better than last year (2016 – 297.4 ypg allowed overall, 120th in the FCS; 2017 – 239.4 ypg allowed overall, 85th in the FCS). They do have a very good run defense headlined by the #1 tackler in the FCS, LB Brett Taylor. WIU is the best team in the MVFC at returning punts and is #3 at returning kickoffs. They are a perfect 6-6 on FGs this season, but the punting game is the worst in the conference.

This game is a matchup of the two most penalized teams in the MVFC…SIU with 47 penalties for 62.4 ypg and WIU with 64 penalties for 74.6 ypg. SIU’s current QB is a good runner, but WIU has a good run defense, so it’ll be interesting to see which breaks first in that matchup. Personally, I feel like WIU should be able to handle SIU’s run game, and the current forecast is windy (in the 20 mph range with gusts up to ~40), which should really knock down the passing game. WIU is currently on a streak of 6-straight quarters of shutout football, and while I don’t think it’ll extend all the way to the end of this game, WIU should be able to do enough to stop the Salukis to come away with a victory by about 12 points.

#5 South Dakota State at #15 South Dakota

Last Week:

  • South Dakota State beat Illinois State, 27-24 in OT
  • South Dakota lost at North Dakota State, 49-14

History: The Jackrabbits and Coyotes have faced off 109 times in their histories, with SDSU having the 52-50-7 advantage. South Dakota State is riding an 8-game win streak over South Dakota, with last year’s matchup being a 28-21 victory in Brookings.

South Dakota State started the season well, although had a close game against Montana State early on. Youngstown State and Northern Iowa handed them their only losses of the season, with the highlight so far being a 33-21 win over rival (and highly ranked) NDSU. They are solidly in the hunt for a playoff seed at this point. The Jackrabbits have the top scoring offense in the conference, putting up points at a rate of over 35 points per game with two legit NFL prospects in TE Dallas Goedert and WR Jake Wieneke. Both of those guys are actually having down years as compared to last year, but are still doing well enough, obviously. They also have the best pass defense in the country, holding opponents to under 170 ypg through the air and led by LB Christian “oh god we have to deal with him for two more years” Rozeboom.

South Dakota was having a great season, winning their first 6 straight, including beating a (not great) Bowling Green team. Illinois State handed them their first loss, and then a dominant win over SIU got them to 7-1, but also severely banged up their QB Chris Streveler, who is a HUGE part of their offense (more so than most other team’s QBs). They then proceeded to lose their next two against a surging UNI and the always-dominant NDSU Bison. Their last game is also a tough one, but one they need to win to be solidly considered for a playoff spot. They put up the most yards of any MVFC team…nearly 500 ypg, with around 325 ypg of that coming through the air via Streveler. The Coyote defense has been roughly in the middle of the pack in most areas, but has been hurt by the legal troubles of a few of their defensive players (suspended from the team), so that’s taken somewhat of a hit the last few games.

On their best day, I think both teams are pretty evenly matched. Two very good offenses against decent but not stellar defenses would generally be a pretty close and high-scoring affair. However, USD with their banged-up Streveler and down a few defensive players is going in the underdog. The game is at USD’s DakotaDome though, and I feel like the Coyotes have a bit more to play for (SDSU for a playoff seed, USD for a playoff spot), so that helps. Still, I think SDSU has a little bit of an advantage and will come away with a narrow victory of roughly 4 points.

Indiana State at #17 Northern Iowa

Last Week:

  • Indiana State lost to Western Illinois, 45-0
  • Northern Iowa won at Missouri State, 25-10

History: The Sycamores and Panthers have played 31 times dating back to 1983. UNI has a distinct series advantage of 26-5. Last year’s meeting was a 39-6 Panther win.

Despite close losses to Eastern Illinois (by 2 points in the final seconds of the game) and Liberty (by 1 point after a last-second missed FG), Indiana State has not been able to put anything in the win column this season. If anything, they seem to be getting worse as the season progresses, losing by only 11 to a decent Illinois State team, but by an average of 42 points in their last three games against a decent WIU team, a mediocre YSU team, and a pretty bad MSU team. Despite having some talent in certain spots, they are last in the conference in all major offensive and defensive categories. RB LeMonte Booker is solid at 74 ypg and WR/RS Bob Pugh is second in the conference in all-purpose yards, being a decent WR as well as a quality kick returner.

Northern Iowa had something of a rough start to the season, going 2-1 OOC with their one win being in OT at home, against Cal Poly. Things weren’t looking any better after a loss to WIU brought them to 2-3 on the season, but then a newfound run game and some modifications to the defensive scheme helped the Panthers to strong wins over some good teams (SDSU and USD mostly) and find themselves needing one more win to reach 7-4 and be heavily considered for a playoff at-large spot. UNI could be rolling with a backup QB after QB Eli Dunne suffered a concussion last weekend (Dunne is listed as “questionable”). Offensively, they haven’t been great, recording the second-fewest number of yards in conference games and the strength has been the passing game, so that could be an issue in this game. On the other side of the ball, UNI has the top run defense in the MVFC with standout LB Rickey Neal leading the conference in tackles for loss (13 vs #2’s 9, and with 12 of them solo tackles) and not surprisingly…sacks (8.5 total, 8 solo). UNI also has the top pass defender in the conference with DB Elijah Campbell batting down 2.14 per game with 4 INTs. They are also a perfect 10/10 on FGs.

So, UNI’s offense might be down a bit on Saturday, however their defense has been really exceptional against some pretty high scoring teams. INSU is not a high-scoring team. I think the Sycamores will struggle to get points on the board this game, and while the Panther offense might not put up the 42 points that have been averaged against them in the last few games, I think they’ll get close. UNI, with their backup QB, should take this one by about 30 points, which should punch their ticket to the playoffs.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1114 – WEEK 12 PREVIEW

Lance & Kris go over their list of predicted wins and thus who they believe is gonna lock up some playoff spots.  What do they think for the automatic bids?  They speak about this scenario:

Auto bids/locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber

Big South: Kennesaw State, Monmouth

CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon

MVFC: NDSU, SDSU

NEC: CCSU

OVC: JSU

Patriot: Lehigh

Pioneer: San Diego

SoCon: Wofford

SLC: UCA, SHSU

Then finally a list of who they think will get in and who they think will get left out.

Win and in:

Big Sky: NAU

CAA: UD, UNH

MVFC: UNI, WIU,

SoCon: Furman OR Samford

SLC: UCA, SHSU

The big, bad bubble:

Big Sky:  EWU, Montana, Sac State

MVFC:  ISU, USD

Socon:  Furman OR Samford

Big South:  Monmouth OR Kennesaw

SLC:  Nichols, McNeese

The boys go over a couple of games that are going to have a big bearing on what happens Sunday as well.

James Madison @ Elon

Monmouth @ Kennesaw State

Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah

South Dakota State @ South Dakota

Furman @ Samford

 

Give the fellers a listen and see if you agree with what they are bringing to the table this week.

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