The FCS Wedge – 2018-1113 – Wk12 PREVIEW

Topic 1: Games of the week/previews

Elon @ Maine

James Madison @ Towson

Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw in Atlanta’s Suncrest Stadium football debut

Weber State @ Idaho State

Topic 2:

Three Big Questions

Who will get the 8 seeds?

Most Likely teams, not from the MVFC, BSC, or CAA to get an at large?

What are the least likely bubble teams to get a bid?

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1113 – Wk11 REVIEW

Lance & Kris start of the show with a discussion off some computer ranking that may be used in some conference races and then get right into the action with some look backs.

Topic 1:

Kennesaw State 51 Monmouth 10

Towson 41 Elon 10

Stony Brook 21 Delaware 3

Some teams possibly exiting the playoffs in round -2 this last week as well:

Youngstown 31 UNI 10

Murray State 40 SEMO 38

Murray State 37 Northwestern State 34

South Dakota 17 WIU 12

The Citadel 42 Samford 27

Topic 2: The AGS Poll for the penultimate playoff rankings.

Topic 3: What did we learn?

1. The bubble is pretty rough.

2. Eastern Washington has a defense? They also have a priority on the running attack? Next up….NDSU develops a new air raid offense for the Bison.

3. After a roller coaster year, Maine needs to win 1 home game to be sole CAA conference champions.

AGS Poll: Week 11 Top 25 Results

Well, if you prefer the status quo week 11 was not for you with 8 teams previously ranked in the AGS top 25 (and the top 4 in the ORV) losing and all 8 were to teams ranked below them or not at all. Despite the churn below them North Dakota State remained the unanimous #1 team. They were followed by Eastern Washington who moved up to #2 following a convincing win over the UC Davis team that had previously occupied that spot. Kennesaw State and Weber State maintained their #3 and #4 rankings, respectively, that they held last week and South Dakota State moved back into the top 5 at #5.

There wasn’t much for high risers in the top 20 this week since the majority of teams just slid up a spot or three based on losses in front of them but both Towson ad North Carolina A&T moved up 4 spots to #11 and #20, respectively. After that we had a bunch of firsts starting with Indiana State who shot up 10 spots to #22 to make their first appearance in the AGS top 25 since 2016. Furman made it back into the top 25 after being out since week 1 moving up 7 spots to #23. Incarnate Word made it’s first appearance ever in the top 25 shooting up 10 spots to #24 and Montana State also made their first appearance since week 4 rising up 13 spots to come in at #25.

The teams going in the opposite direction were headlined by aforementioned UC Davis who dropped 5 spots down to #7. CAA conference-mates Delaware and Elon dropped 5 and 7 spots to #13 and #14, respectively, after dropping contests to ranked league opponents. Idaho State moved down 7 spots down to #21 after being upset by unranked Cal Poly. Southeast Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Western Illinois, and McNeese (snapping a 20 week streak in the poll) all dropped out of the top 25 after each lost to unranked teams last Saturday.

In terms of conference representation the CAA once again led the way placing 6 teams into the top 25. They were followed by Big sky with 5, the MVFC and SOCON with 3 each, and the Ivy League and Southland with 2 teams each in the top 25. Once again 10 different conference were represented in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Change Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 North Dakota State Bison 2175 87
2 3 Eastern Washington Eagles 2004
3 Kennesaw State Owls 1944
4 Weber State Wildcats 1920
5 1 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1862
6 3 Colgate Raiders 1620
7 -5 UC Davis Aggies 1616
8 2 James Madison Dukes 1568
9 2 Stony Brook Seawolves 1433
10 3 Maine Black Bears 1287
11 4 Towson Tigers 1265
12 Princeton Tigers 1172
13 -5 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 1096
14 -7 Elon Phoenix 988
15 1 Wofford Terriers 969
16 1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 921
17 2 Nicholls State Colonels 879
18 2 East Tennessee State Buccaneers 667
19 3 Dartmouth Big Green 586
20 4 North Carolina A&T Aggies 527
21 -7 Idaho State Bengals 314
22 10 Indiana State Sycamores 233
23 7 Furman Paladins 201
24 10 Incarnate Word Cardinals 174
25 13 Montana State Bobcats 137
ORV:
26 10 North Dakota Fighting Hawks 131
27 -6 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 130
28 3 Lamar Cardinals 108
29 6 San Diego Toreros 88
30 -12 Northern Iowa Panthers 64
31 -8 Western Illinois Leathernecks 46
32 NR Montana Grizzlies 42
33 -4 Monmouth Hawks 30
34 5 Abilene Christian Wildcats 22
35 -10 McNeese State Cowboys 17
36 -10 Illinois State Redbirds 12
37 -9 Rhode Island Rams 9
38 -1 Chattanooga Mocs 6
39T NR Alcorn State Braves 3
39T NR New Hampshire Wildcats 3
39T -13 Samford Bulldogs 3

Most significant win: Eastern Washington Eagles
Most significant loss: Elon Phoenix

Dropped out of the poll:
Central Arkansas Bears
Yale Bulldogs

Join the discussion here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?217847-AGS-Poll-Results-WEEK-11-POLL-2018-SEASON

MVFC Week 11 In Review

Nobody really wanted to go to the playoffs this year, right?

The Scores

Northern Iowa – 10
Youngstown State – 31

Illinois State – 23
Indiana State – 28

Western Illinois – 12
South Dakota – 17

South Dakota State – 57
Southern Illinois – 38

North Dakota State – 48
Missouri State – 7


Northern Iowa at Youngstown State

UNI and YSU started the game trading drives that pretty much went nowhere. Eventually, with about 5 minutes left in the first quarter, the Penguins QB Montgomery VanGorder hit WR Darius Shackleford with a 62-yard TD pass to take a 7-0 lead. Into the second quarter, UNI RB Marcus Weymiller fumbled the ball at their own 11, which was recovered at the 5 by YSU DE Shereif Bynum. One 5-yard TD run by RB Tevin McCaster and YSU was up 14-0. With less than a minute left to go in the first half, the Panthers finally put points on the board with a 4-yard TD pass to TE Briley Moore after they’d been set up with good field position following a 26-yard punt return by WR Jalen Rima. YSU then ran out the clock on the first half, going to the locker room with a 14-7 lead.

In the second half, it took Youngstown State all of two plays to cover 81 yards and hit “pay dirt” again with a 52-yard pass to TE Miles Joiner was followed up with a 29-yard TD run by RB McCaster. UNI responded on their next drive, however, after DB Xavior Williams had a big kickoff return and the Panthers were able to pull within range of a 34-yard FG by PK Austin Errthum, making it 21-10. A little while later, YSU found the end zone again after a long 12-play drive capped off with a 1-yard TD run by RB McCaster and the Penguins were up 28-10. In the 4th quarter, a pass by YSU QB VanGorder was intercepted by UNI DB Williams and returned 61 yards all the way to the YSU 4 yard line. A 3-yard run got UNI to the 1 yard line, but then a snap over the head of QB Eli Dunne would be picked up by YSU LB Ray Anderson and run back 45 more yards, not only killing UNI’s chances at a score, but also giving YSU the ball at the UNI 36. A few plays later, PK Zak Kennedy hit a 28-yard FG to make it 31-10 Penguins, but on the ensuing kickoff, there was a scary situation with the TE Moore when he ran headfirst into his own player and was down and not moving for a significant amount of time. They were able to load him into a cart and he gave a thumbs up as he was taken off the field, so hopefully everything will be ok with the young man. From there, Youngstown State was able to hold the Panthers the rest of the game to seal the 31-10 victory.

UNI QB Eli Dunne had only 73 passing yards with 1 TD in this game, with the TD going to TE Briley Moore. RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 89 yards but also fumbled the ball once. DB Korby Sander, RB (RB?) Christian Jegen, and LB Duncan Ferch all had 8 tackles, and DB Xavior Williams had 3 tackles to go along with his interception. YSU QB Montgomery VanGorder threw for 209 yards and 1 TD with 1 INT, with 73 of those yards and the TD going to WR Darius Shackleford. RB Tevin McCaster had a great day rushing for 136 yards and 3 TDs. LB Armand Dellovade led the Penguins with 9 tackles, DT Savon Smith had 5 tackles and a sack, and both DE Shereif Bynum and LB Ray Anderson had fumble recoveries.

Northern Iowa sees their playoff chances drop to nearly zero, falling to 5-5 overall and 4-3 in the MVFC. They will finish out their season hosting Missouri State next weekend. Youngstown State’s win takes them to 4-6 with a 3-4 conference record and will finish up with a road game at Illinois State next weekend.


Illinois State at Indiana State

This battle between ISU’s was essentially a must-win for both teams if they wanted to keep their playoff hopes alive. Around 7 minutes into the first quarter the Redbirds struck first, with kicker JT Bohlken hitting a 27-yard FG to take a 3-0 lead. Two plays from scrimmage later, the Sycamores gave it right back to the Redbirds when QB Ryan Boyle’s pass was intercepted by ILSU DB Luther Kirk. The ILSU offense moved down the field and scored again on a 26-yard TD run by RB Markel Smith, going up 10-0. The second quarter, though, INSU came roaring back, when, after a fumble forced by INSU DB Denzel Bonner and recovered by LB Matt Thompson, INSU RB Titus McCoy ran the ball 34 yards to the 4, then the final 4 for a TD on the next play to pull within 3. On ILSU’s next drive, INSU DB Bonner one-upped himself by intercepting a pass by ILSU QB Brady Davis giving the Sycamores the ball at the Illinois State 25. 6 plays later, they were back in the end zone on a 6-yard pass to WR Dante Jones II to take a 14-10 lead, and then after holding ILSU to a 3-and-out and getting good field position on a bad punt, the Sycamore offense found their way to the blue turf once again on a 2-yard run by RB McCoy. Late in the half, ILSU kicker JT Bohlken missed a 30-yard FG attempt, keeping the score 21-10 going into halftime.

In the second half, it was again the Redbirds’ turn to get the points, when an 11-play, 57-yard drive ended in a 2-yard TD pass to WR Spencer Schnell. Late in the 3rd, they’d go for it on a 4th and 2 at the INSU 34, but turned the ball over on downs. In the 4th, the Sycamores’ first drive finished with a 25-yard TD pass to WR Dakota Caton, putting the “trees” up 28-17. Their defense held the next drive and once they got the ball back, despite not getting very far (37 yards), INSU was able to eat nearly 6 ½ minutes of clock time with 11 plays including 8 straight runs. Five plays into the Redbirds’ next drive, a Davis pass was intercepted by INSU DB Jamal Jones. They didn’t do much with it, and once ILSU got the ball back, they were able to drive 84 yards down the field ending in a 15-yard TD pass to WR Schnell to pull within 5. Unfortunately for the Redbirds, the drive used up nearly 2 minutes and they were left with less than 30 seconds when the onside kick failed and Indiana State was able to hold on to win 28-23.

ILSU QB Brady Davis threw for 294 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs and had two receivers go over 100 yards: Spencer Schnell (155 yards and 2 TDs) and Andrew Edgar (104 yards). RB Markel Smith ran for 83 yards and 1 TD. DE Romeo McKnight and DB Luther Kirk led the Redbirds with 9 tackles and Kirk had an interception. INSU QB Ryan Boyle only had 82 yards passing with 2 TDs (to receivers Dante Jones II and Dakota Caton) and 1 interception. RB Titus McCoy had 132 rushing yards and 2 TDs. LB Katrell Moss topped the list with 13 tackles (7 solo) and 1 sack and was awarded the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award, and LB Jonas Griffith had 10 tackles (9 solo). DB Jamal Jones had an interception, as did DB Denzel Bonner. Bonner also forced a fumble recovered by LB Matt Thompson.

Illinois State saw their playoff hopes dashed, falling to 5-5 with a 2-5 conference record. They’ll host Youngstown State next weekend to close out the season. Indiana State on the other hand, is still in business, now at 6-4 and 4-3 in the MVFC and they’ll hit the road to close out the regular season at Western Illinois, needing one more win to likely claim a playoff spot.


Western Illinois at South Dakota

WIU scored first on a 52-yard FG early in the game, but South Dakota took their first lead shortly thereafter on a 2-yard TD pass to WR Caleb Vander Esch after a 75-yard drive. A good kick return for the Leathernecks gave them the ball on USD’s 42 yard line, but they weren’t able to do anything with it, having to settle for a punt, pinning the Coyotes deep at their own 9 yard line. Early in the 2nd, USD was making all the plays they needed to to move the ball, but went for a long pass that was intercepted in the end zone by WIU DB Xavier Rowe for a touchback. Later, despite poor tackling from the Leatherneck defenders, USD was stopped short on a 3rd and 15 with an 11 yard gain, but a great punt pinned WIU at their own 1 yard line. They were able to drive the ball across to the USD 23 but missed on the 39-yard FG attempt. Nearing the end of the first half, with USD nearing the end zone, QB Austin Simmons fumbled the ball around the 1 yard line which was recovered in the WIU end zone for another turnover touchback, keeping the score at 7-3 going into halftime.

Five minutes into the second half, USD’s drive stalled out in the red zone and had to settle for a 32-yard FG by kicker Mason Lorber to pull ahead 10-3. On WIU’s next drive, a 45-yard pass got WIU within the red zone, but an tipped pass was intercepted by South Dakota DB Michael Frederick to give them the ball at their own 5 yard line. Early in the 4th quarter, WIU was able to get close enough for kicker Sam Crosa to hit a 44-yard FG making the score 10-6, but USD was able to answer with a long drive for a 4-yard TD run by RB Kai Henry to go ahead 17-6 with just over 9 minutes left in the game. Having no luck on offense, WIU has to resort to a blocked punt to find the end zone, but the 2-pt conversion failed leaving the Leathernecks down by 5 with 5 minutes left to play and no time outs. The comeback eventually failed and WIU dropped the game 17-12.

WIU QB Sean McGuire threw for 251 yards with 1 interception, with 116 yards of that going to RB Clint Ratkovich. He would have done quite a bit better, but for some reason a lot of the passes ended up being dropped by receivers (like…easy catches, nobody around, right in their hands.) The run game woes returned for the Leathernecks though, as the team was held to only 21 net yards combined. Ratkovich also led the team in rushing yards though, with 18. LB Quentin Moon led the team in tackles with 10 (7 solo) and had a forced fumble recovered by DB Darren Wheeler. LB Pete Swenson continued his string of terrorizing QBs with 3 sacks and a pass breakup. USD QB had 220 yards passing with 1 TD and 1 INT, with 71 of those yards going to WR Kody Case. RB Kai Henry had 70 rushing yards with 1 TD. LB Alex Coker led the team with 10 tackles (2 solo) and DB Michael Frederick had 8 tackles and an interception. Punter Brady Schutt had 6 punts that averaged 48.8 yards per with 2 inside the 20 including one that rolled out of bounds at the 1 yard line. Schutt earned the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award.

Western Illinois is now mostly out of playoff consideration as well, although would likely have the best chance of any of the 6-5 teams…IF (big “if” there) they were to win their last game. The Leathernecks are now 5-5 with a 4-3 conference record and host a surging Indiana State team at home for Senior Day next weekend. South Dakota brings their record to 4-6 with a 3-4 MVFC record and will hit the road, taking on in-state rival South Dakota State next weekend.


South Dakota State at Southern Illinois

Offenses were on display in Carbondale, as the Jackrabbits got things started on their first drive with RB Mikey Daniel running the ball in for a TD to take an early lead. Halfway through the 1st, the Salukis got their first points on a 50-yard FG. SDSU responded with a 21-yard FG on their next series, making it 10-3. SIU got down to the SDSU 1-yard line as the quarter ended, but had to wait until early in the 2nd to make it into the end zone on a 1-yard run by QB Matt DeSomer, tying things up at 10. A couple of drives later, SIU had to punt from their 22 yard line, but the kick was blocked by CB Don Gardner and recovered in the end zone by WR Jadon Janke for a TD. SIU took 13 plays to move 75 yards on their next drive, finishing with another 1-yard run by QB DeSomer, but the Jackrabbits answered right back with a 72-yard TD run by RB Pierre Strong Jr. on the second play to go up 24-17. Nearing the end of the half, SDSU QB Taryn Christion hit WR Cade Johnson for a 56-yard TD pass (XP failed), putting the score at 30-17 going into halftime.

In the 3rd quarter, Southern Illinois started with the ball and drove down the field, scoring on a 10-yard run by QB DeSomer to pull back within 6. Three plays later, South Dakota State was back in the end zone on a 42-yard TD pass to WR Johnson (2-pt conversion failed). A 67-yard run by SIU RB DJ Davis got the Salukis close, and DeSomer would again run it in, this time from 10 yards out, making it 36-31 Jackrabbits. They’d respond again though, with RB Strong taking the ball another 43 yards into the end zone. SIU stalled out on their drive, but SDSU didn’t have the same problems, using a 26-yard pass to WR Johnson to get close and let RB Daniel run it the last yard into the end zone to pull ahead 50-31. The Salukis weren’t about ready to give up though, as a pass to WR Raphael Leonard was taken 53 yards and across the goal line to end the 3rd quarter down 50-38. SDSU came right back in the 4th though as RB Strong would again live up to his name, powering himself 24 yards into the end zone and giving the Jackrabbits a 57-38 lead. Apparently that was the point where the bus carrying the defenses showed up, because SIU got to the SDSU 9, but came away empty handed, then SDSU missed a 48-yard FG, SIU had a pass intercepted, SDSU missed a 28-yard FG, and Southern Illinois would run out of time, falling 57-38 to South Dakota State

SDSU QB Taryn Christion threw for 341 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 30 yards. R-Freshman Pierre Strong Jr. ran for 188 yards with 3 TDs and received the MVFC Newcomer of the Week award. WR Cade Johnson hauled in 7 catches for 198 yards and 2 TDs. LB Christian Rozeboom led the Jackrabbits with 12 tackles, Safety Brandon Snyder had 5 tackles with a sack and an interception, and punter Brady Hale averaged 43.3 yards on 3 punts with 2 inside the 20. SIU QB Matt DeSomer had 184 yards and 1 TD through the air (the late INT was thrown by QB Sam Straub) and ran for 66 yards and 4 TDs. The passing TD went to WR Raphael Leonard who also had 76 yards, and RB DJ Davis ran for a career-high 201 yards. Safety Qua Brown topped the Salukis with 11 tackles while DE Anthony Knighton had 6 tackles, 3 of which were for loss including 2 sacks. Punter Lane Reazin had 3 kicks averaging 45.3 yards per with 1 inside the 20.

South Dakota State finds themselves essentially a lock for the playoffs now, sitting at 7-2 with a 5-2 conference record. They’ll close out the regular season hosting in-state rival South Dakota next Saturday. Southern Illinois drops another and is 2-8 with a 1-6 conference record and having been long-since eliminated from playoff contention, will hit the road to Fargo to take on the undefeated Bison next weekend.


North Dakota State at Missouri State

I mean…I think we all can figure out by now that if Missouri State had won this game, it’d be a giant upset discussed all over the message boards, twitter, reddit, etc. and you would have heard about it by now. So, since you didn’t, you know that MSU didn’t…and I’m going to do this one a bit differently than usual. In the first quarter, NDSU had TDs from: a 29-yard pass to WR Dallas Freeman, a 29-yard pass to TE Ben Ellefson, and a 43-yard pass to TE Nate Jenson…and they had a successful onside kick. MSU meanwhile, had 3 plays going a total of 9 yards, 0 first downs…and threw an interception. First play in the second half was another Bison TD on a 5-yard pass to TE Ellefson, although MSU’s defense started to step up a bit, forcing NDSU to punt on back to back drives. Eventually the Bison broke through again on a 27-yard pass to RB Lance Dunn, to make the score at this point 34-0 NDSU. MSU’s defense was able to get a sack on NDSU QB Easton Stick and get an interception on the next play, but considering their only first downs of the first half were 3 in one drive earlier in the 2nd quarter, they didn’t come away with any points this time.

In the second half, about 6 minutes in, the Bears finally reached the end zone after a couple of big plays got them close and RB Jeremiah Wilson ran it 6 yards in for a TD. NDSU came right back with 4 plays finishing RB Adam Cofield running 14-yards into the end zone, making the score 41-7. On their next drive, Cofield decided he liked it so much that he returned to the end zone, running it in from 5-yards out to pull ahead 48-7. In the final quarter, NDSU essentially just ran the ball a whole lot, eating time. MSU meanwhile, did pick up some yardage on a couple of drives, but none were able to get them close enough to score, and the score would stay 48-7 to the end, with the Bison remaining undefeated.

NDSU QB Easton Stick threw for 238 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT, ran for 11 yards and earned the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week Award. Even more impressively, he also surpassed former NDSU QB Brock Jenson at the top of the career passing yardage list and now holds that school record. RB Seth Wilson led the Bison on the ground with 95 yards, but RB Adam Cofield found the end zone twice while running for 85 yards. TE Nate Jenson had 81 receiving yards and 1 TD on 2 catches, while TE Ben Ellefson had 2 TDs on his 2 catches, WR Dallas Freeman had 1 TD on 2 catches and RB Lance Dunn had 1 catch for 1 TD. LB Jabril Cox led NDSU with 9 tackles including 1 sack. Safety James Hendrix had an interception, and Punter Garret Wegner had a 45 yard average on 5 punts with all but 1 of those ending up within the red zone. MSU QB Peyton Huslig had a rough day, completing only 6 of 23 pass attempts for 87 yards and 1 interception. RB Jeremiah Wilson ran for 87 yards and the lone MSU TD. Safety Jared Beshore and DT Claudio Martin each had 8 tackles (3 solo each) and Martin had 1.5 sacks. LB Kevin Ellis had 6 tackles and an interception.

NDSU is now 10-0 with 7 of those wins in the MVFC and have…well…probably locked up the #1 seed for the playoffs already regardless of what happens next week. It’s unlikely there’ll be much worrying in Fargo though, as the Bison are hosting last-place Southern Illinois next weekend. Missouri State drops to 4-6 and 2-5 in the conference, seeing a promising start to the season head straight down the drain, having lost their last 4 games. They’ll close out their season on the road at Northern Iowa next Saturday.


MVFC Standings

Team, Overall (MVFC) – last game

North Dakota State, 10-0 (7-0) – Southern Illinois
South Dakota State, 7-2 (5-2) – South Dakota
Indiana State, 6-4 (4-3) – @ Western Illinois
Northern Iowa, 5-5 (4-3) – Missouri State
Western Illinois, 5-5 (4-3) – Indiana State
South Dakota, 4-6 (3-4) – @ South Dakota State
Youngstown State, 4-6 (3-4) – @ Illinois State
Illinois State, 5-5 (2-5) – Youngstown State
Missouri State, 4-6 (2-5) – @ Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois, 2-8 (1-6) – @ North Dakota State

As has been the case the last few weeks, “Professor Chaos” over at AnyGivenSaturday.com has written an excellent breakdown of each team’s playoff chances at this point.

The short version is essentially:

  • NDSU has locked up the conference auto-bid and probably the #1 seed.
  • SDSU has also locked up an at-large playoff spot, but should get a seed if they win their final game.
  • INSU should make it in if they win their last game against WIU.
  • WIU might have a chance to get an at-large if they beat INSU…but they’d need help from elsewhere.
  • UNI essentially needs to win their last game, and hope that a LOT of games go their way across the FCS to have even a slight chance.
  • ILSU, MSU, USD, YSU, and SIU are all effectively eliminated.

How’d I Do?

(do I have to?)

UNI at YSU – I thought UNI by 7, it was YSU by 21. UNI laid an egg (that’s the polite way of saying it, anyway).
ILSU at INSU – I thought ILSU by 3, it was INSU by 5. Oh how the mighty mustache has fallen.
WIU at USD – I thought WIU by 6, it was USD by 5. Honestly I’m not sure either team wanted to win this game…sure didn’t look like it anyway. Someone had to though, so the home team did.
SDSU at SIU – I thought SDSU by 15, it was SDSU by 19. Ok, finally got one right…this one pretty much went “as expected”.
NDSU at MSU – I thought NDS by 26 depending on when NDSU let off the gas, it was NDSU by 41. They let up a bit later, and MSU had a bit more trouble stopping NDSU’s 2nd string. I consider this a win…I need every one I can get these days.

Previously I was 14-11 in my picks. I went 2-3 this week, so I’m sitting at 16-14. I can’t technically finish at .500 on my picks, but if I have another week like this, it’ll be close.

One more weekend of regular season football. One more game for many team’s senior class. One more chance for many fans to see their team play until the long cold winter sets in. The final games of the regular season include Youngstown State at Illinois State, Indiana State at Western Illinois, South Dakota at South Dakota State, Southern Illinois at North Dakota State, and Missouri State at Northern Iowa. INSU @ WIU could be considered a “play-in” game for a playoff spot…maybe, SDSU wants to solidify a decent playoff seed, and NDSU is trying to go undefeated in the regular season for the first time since 2013.

Patriot League Week 11: Finding Reasons To Fight To The Finish

With the regular season’s penultimate weekend upon us there’s two intriguing storylines worth following. The first one is clearly Colgate’s undefeated season to this point. The Raiders have deployed a dominating defense that is on pace to set numerous Patriot League records. The offense hasn’t been too shabby either (29.9 ppg, 1st in PL). A win over Lehigh this week would keep Colgate in contention for a 1st round bye in the FCS playoffs. The other noteworthy nugget this weekend is Georgetown’s quest for a winning record. The Hoyas host 1-8 Bucknell Saturday before trekking to Holy Cross to finish out the season. The Patriot League managed just one team with a winning record in 2017(Colgate) and are a Hoya loss away from replicating that dubious feat this season.

Lafayette (3-6, 2-3) at Army (7-2) 12 P.M. Michie Stadium West Point, NY

Live TV: CBS Sportsnetwork

The Pick: For the second time in three years Lafayette heads to historic Michie Stadium to take on FBS Army. The last time the Leopards invaded West Point, the eventual bowl bound Cadets demolished them to the tune of 62-7. Army’s potent triple-option offense racked up a ridiculous 552 rushing yards on their way to the easy victory. The Black Knights once again feature an elite rushing attack (306.6 ypg, 2nd in FBS) that’s led by quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. Holy Cross’s far more traditional offense lit up the Leopard defense last week for 431 totals yards and 40 points (2nd most surrendered this year). After showing some promise in recent weeks, the Lafayette offense took a step back in the loss to the Crusaders. Sophomore Sean O’Malley (23-41 156 yards 1 INT) continued the trend of more downs than ups in 2018. The main bright spot  on offense is C.J. Amill’s continued emergence (9 carries 65 yards 1 TD vs HC) running the ball.

On paper, this is probably the longest odds a Patriot League team has faced against an non-conference opponent in over a decade. Army is 7-2 but very easily could be 8-1 had they not suffered a heartbreaking overtime loss to Oklahoma, yes the Top 10 Sooners, in Norman. Even the 2016 version of Lafayette that finished 2-9 did not have to deal with an Army team this good. Army plays hard for 60 minutes regardless of the score which is not good news for the struggling Leopards.

Army 70 Lafayette 17

Fordham (1-8, 1-3) at Holy Cross (3-6, 2-2) 12 P.M Fitton Field Worcester, MA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Pick: Holy Cross returns home after notching their second straight dominating win over a team from the Lehigh Valley. After throttling Lehigh 56-0 two Saturdays ago, the rapidly improving Crusaders hammered Lafayette 40-14 in Easton this past weekend. Quarterback Geoff Wade had arguably the best game (16-21 289 yards 2 TDs) of his career while the steady ground attack used a RB by committee approach to grind out 142 yards in the “W”. Fordham heads to New England riding a wave of bad mojo following their 41-0 blowout loss to #9 Colgate. The loss was not only the Rams third in a row, it happened to be the first time they were shutout since 2011 (21-0 vs Bucknell). Holy Cross’s defense is certainly not on Colgate’s level but it’s held its own in league games (14.2 ppg allowed). The Rams must find a way to get the running game going in order to have a chance against the Crusaders. The Fordham rushing attack has managed an uber ugly -70 combined yards the last two weeks (vs Lafayette, vs Colgate). That has obviously made life especially tough for QB Tim DeMorat.

Holy Cross’s fate is already resigned to that of a “losing team” due to their 6 losses but as the regular season nears the end the Crusaders stock is rising. The offense’s main identity under Coach Chesney has been primarily run first (162.7 ypg, 2nd in PL). Yet, as the season has gone on it’s Geoff Wade’s improved passing that has allowed the “O” to really excel. Outside of the Lehigh win and Bryant loss, Fordham has played shockingly poor for much of the year under first year Head Coach Joe Conlin. At this point, it’s hard to imagine the Rams going on the road and upsetting what is likely the second best team in the Patriot League

Holy Cross 38 Fordham 17

Bucknell (1-8, 1-3) at Georgetown (4-5, 3-1) 12:30 P.M. Cooper Field Washington D.C.

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network
The Pick: Georgetown returns to action off their bye with the dream of a winning season and second play finish in the Patriot League still alive (at Holy Cross next week). The Hoyas have managed to accomplish that feat but once, 2011, since they joined the league prior to the 2001 season. In order for Georgetown to dispatch of Bucknell, the defense needs to gain their swagger back after giving up 38 points to Colgate two weeks ago. Things figure to be considerably easier for the Hoya defense against a Bucknell offense that has nowhere near the experience, or overall talent, that Colgate possesses. The Bison will once again turn to highly regarded freshman quarterback Tarrin Earle to lead the offense. The New Jersey native did some good things in his first career start (17-40 174 yards 2 TDs 1 INT) against Lehigh last week. While the offense certainly didn’t light up the scoreboard, it was the Bison defense that really struggled in the 45-17 loss. The Mountain Hawk’s entered the game with the league’s worst offense statistically but managed to generate numerous big plays against the Bison “D”.

In a season where Colgate has dominated while most everyone else has floundered, Georgetown’s run to respectability has been refreshing. Year in and year out Coach Sgarlata gets more out of his roster than any other coach in the league. It can’t be overstated what a winning record would mean to Sgarlata and his program. Conversely, 2018 has been a season Bucknell coach Joe Susan would much rather forget. The Bison seem destined for their second 10 loss season under his watch.

Georgetown 21 Bucknell 13

#9 Colgate (8-0, 5-0) at Lehigh (2-7, 1-3) 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Pick: With a share of the Patriot League Championship and the automatic bid into the FCS Playoffs already wrapped up, Colgate heads to Bethlehem looking to lock down the outright title. It would be Colgate’s third outright Patriot League Title (’12, ’15, ’18) in the last seven seasons and fourth overall in that time frame. Standing in their way is the lone program, Lehigh, in the Patriot League that can match the Raiders pedigree over the last two decades. The Mountain Hawks enter this game with the most momentum they’ve had all season thanks to last week’s 45-17 dismantling of Bucknell. Unfortunately for Lehigh, that momentum may very well be careening towards the brick wall that doubles as the Colgate defense (2.9 ppg allowed, 1st in FCS). The Raiders travel to Goodman Stadium following their second straight shutout win that saw their absurd “No TD Allowed” streak reach its 28th quarter. Lost in the dominance of the ‘Gate defense is the continued solid production of QB Grant Breneman (16-19 198 yards, 1 rushing TD vs Fordham) and RB James Holland Jr. (165 yards 2 TDs vs Fordham).

Over the last 20 years, no matchup has factored into the Patriot League title race more than Colgate vs Lehigh; and it’s not even close. Recently, the Mountain Hawks have had Colgate’s number (6-2 this decade) but that trend will mean very little once the game gets under way. Lehigh has the athletes on offense capable of putting an end to the Raiders touchdown streak but that’s about it. The Mountain Hawks leaky defense won’t be able to get enough stops to seriously threaten the 9th ranked team in FCS.

Colgate 38 Lehigh 13

MVFC Week 11 Preview

MVFC LogoCan you believe we’re already to week 11? For all but a few teams (the 24 in the playoffs, plus a few odd scheduling situations), there are only two more games left in their seasons. Quite a few things could be decided this weekend, depending on how the games play out, but it’s also entirely possible that maybe only 1 team will be eliminated from playoff consideration this Saturday.

Couple of quick things:

  • Conference-only stats now, just MVFC games (unless stated otherwise)
  • Ranking numbers for stats are within the MVFC (unless stated otherwise)
  • I will often round to the nearest yard for things like yards per game

All times are listed as Central time zone and ranking numbers based on the AGS Poll. Here’s the full list along with starting times and places you can find them on TV/streaming video:

Saturday, November 10th
11:00 AM – #18 Northern Iowa (5-4, 4-2 MVFC) at Youngstown State (3-6, 2-4 MVFC), ESPN+
12:00 PM – Illinois State (5-4, 2-4 MVFC) at Indiana State (5-4, 3-3 MVFC), ESPN3
1:00 PM – #23 Western Illinois (5-4, 4-2 MVFC) at South Dakota (3-6, 2-4 MVFC), ESPN+
1:00 PM – #6 South Dakota State (6-2, 4-2 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (2-7, 1-5 MVFC), ESPN+
2:00 PM – #1 North Dakota State (9-0, 6-0 MVFC) at Missouri State (4-5, 2-4 MVFC), ESPN+


Northern Iowa at Youngstown State

The Series: The Panthers and Penguins have faced off 28 times going back to 1978 with UNI holding the 21-8 series lead. In games at Youngstown, UNI has a 9-4 advantage, although the home team has won the last five meetings, 3 at UNI, 2 at YSU. Last year’s game was a 19-14 win for the Panthers.

UNI’s Record: Northern Iowa is 5-4 overall with a 4-2 conference record. They started off the season with losses at Montana and at FBS Iowa, then a home shutout win over Hampton. In-conference, they have beaten Indiana State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, and Illinois State (last weekend’s game), and have lost to North Dakota State and Western Illinois.

YSU’s Record: Youngstown State is 3-6 overall and 2-4 in the MVFC. Their season started with a loss to Butler, a loss at FBS West Virginia, then a win over Valparaiso. In the MVFC, they have wins over Southern Illinois and South Dakota, and losses against Western Illinois, South Dakota State, Indiana State, and last Saturday at North Dakota State.

About Northern Iowa: UNI’s offense ranks 7th in MVFC games in yards per game, but is 4th in points. They lean towards the passing game, putting up 248 ypg through the air but only 139 ypg on the ground. QB Eli Dunne averages 144 ypg with 9 passing TDs and 4 INTs with TE Briley Moore leading the team with a 59 ypg receiving average and 2 TDs. On the ground, RB Marcus Weymiller is #6 in the conference with 83 ypg and 3 TDs and RB Trevor Allen is at #10 with 60 ypg and 3 TDs. The Panther defense is slightly above “average” in total defense and points allowed, and is much better at stopping a ground game (4th) than a passing attack (9th). LB Duncan Ferch picks up 8.8 tackles per game and is second in the MVFC in defending passes  with a 1.67 per game average. LB Rickey Neal Jr. is #2 in the conference in sacks, averaging just under 1 per game (5.5 in 6 games) and has forced 2 fumbles in the 6 MVFC games.

About Youngstown State: YSU’s offense puts up even fewer yards than UNI’s (377/game) but is last in the conference in putting up points (19.2). Both their offensive run game and passing game rank 6th in MVFC contests. QB Montgomery VanGorder has been starting most of the season, so is the one showing up at the top of the stats lists for the Penguins, but it looks like QB Nathan Mays is projected to start this game instead (he played some in the last two games). I don’t have great numbers for him for this season, since he’s only been playing sparingly, but over this year he’s played in 3 games, has a 57% completion rate with 1 TD and 0 INTs (on 28 passes) and has an efficiency rating of 130.4, which currently would put him around 8th in the MVFC. WR Jermiah Braswell has 18 receptions this season with a 17.2 ypc average for 52 ypg and 2 TDs. RB Tevin McCaster is the biggest name on YSU’s offense, running for 96 ypg and 5 TDs. McCaster is also currently 43 yards away from his second consecutive 1k+ rushing yardage season. The Penguins are, in general, much better on defense than they are on offense ranking 4th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense and having the #1 pass defense allowing only 202 ypg. LB Armand Dellovade is the star on that side of the ball, with 9.7 tackles per game (and had 16 against NDSU last weekend) and DT Savon Smith has 3.5 sacks in 6 games.

My Take: I think that, overall, UNI is a better team than YSU, although YSU’s defense really impressed me last weekend against NDSU and showed that they’re not giving up on a strong finish to the season. UNI, however, is fighting for a playoff spot and needs to close out the season with two more wins to reasonably be assured an at-large spot. I think they’ll be able to do it, pulling out a win by a TD, 28-21.


Illinois State at Indiana State

The Series: The battle of the ISU’s has taken place 69 times starting back in 1936. Illinois State has a 37-30-2 advantage in the series and has only lost twice in the last 10 years. Last year’s matchup was a 24-13 victory for the Redbirds in Normal.

ILSU’s Record: The Redbirds are 5-4 with a 2-4 conference record. They started the season with three straight wins against NAIA Saint Xavier, Eastern Illinois, and at FBS Colorado State. In the MVFC, they have wins over Western Illinois and Southern Illinois and losses to Missouri State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and last week lost to Northern Iowa by 10.

INSU’s Record: The Sycamores are also 5-4 although they have a 3-3 conference record. They had a win over DII Quincy, lost at FBS Louisville, and like ILSU, have a win over Eastern Illinois. In conference, they have wins over Southern Illinois, Youngstown State, and last weekend’s 3OT win over South Dakota. Losses were against Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, and Missouri State.

About Illinois State: On offense, the Redbirds are 9th in the conference in total offense and 7th in scoring. The ground game is right about in the middle of the pack averaging 160 ypg, and in the passing game they’re a little below average, sitting at 7th with 207 ypg. QB Brady Davis looks like he’ll be the starter this weekend after missing the last game and a half due to an injury. He’s averaging 170 ypg with 9 TDs and 3 INTs. His top targets are WR Spencer Schnell with 68 ypg and 5 TDs and R-Freshman WR Andrew Edgar who has 64 ypg with 3 TDs. On the ground, RB James Robinson is the top active RB in the conference, averaging 97 ypg with 5 TDs. For the season, Robinson is 39 yards from hitting 1,000 rushing yards. The Redbird defense is #2 in the MVFC in both points allowed (22.5) and yards allowed (339 ypg). They are #3 both against the run (118 ypg) and the pass (221 ypg). LB Zackary Mathews leads the team with 9 tackles per game and DE Romeo McKnight has 6.5 tackles for loss through 6 MVFC games. DBs Devin Taylor and Luther Kirk have 2 interceptions each and Taylor has 6 pass breakups.

About Indiana State: The Sycamores have the #1 run game in the conference (246 ypg) but the #8 passing game (201.5 ypg), which adds up to #1 in total offense (447 ypg) and #3 in scoring (32.5 ppg). Part of the high run game numbers is the contributions of RB Ja’Quan Keys, who was lost a few games ago due to injury. Despite having only played in 4 MVFC games, he’s still 3rd in the conference in total rushing yards and 1st in rushing TDs. Since Keys has been out, others have really picked up the slack, with QB Ryan Boyle accounting for 380 yards of total offense and 7 TDs (passing + rushing) in their game last week, for example. Boyle is averaging 88 ypg with 4 TDs…rushing (in MVFC games) and through the air, he’s putting up 155 ypg with 10 TDs. Their top WR is Dante Hendrix at 85 ypg with 4 TDs. On the other side of the ball, INSU is 8th in points allowed (33.7 ppg) and 9th in yards allowed (478 ypg). Their run defense is last in the conference (250 ypg allowed) but they’re 6th in pass defense (227.7 ypg). They do have a handful of big time playmakers, however, with LBs Jonas Griffith and Katrell Moss leading the MVFC in tackles per game with 13.8 and 12.5 per game respectively and DB Jamal Jones comes in at #4 with 10 per game and leads the conference in recovered fumbles with 3 in 6 MVFC games.

My Take: The Redbirds have lost three straight…Sycamores have won three straight. With both teams at 5-4, both still have a shot at the playoffs, but they both have to win out. That’s obviously not going to happen…someone’s going to win this game. INSU has momentum on their side, but ILSU has been playing the toughest teams in the conference the last few weeks. My heart kinda wants Indiana State to win this, because of the turnaround from last year’s winless season, but I think Illinois State is going to do just enough to win, 30-28.


Western Illinois at South Dakota

The Series: The Leathernecks and Coyotes have faced off 8 times starting with a home & home series in 1976 and ‘77 that were both wins for USD. The two teams have played every year since 2012, with all but last year’s contest being a win for the Leathernecks. Last year was a 38-33 win for the Coyotes at Macomb, but was also the game where WIU WR Jaelon Acklin set the conference record for receiving yards in a game (343, 4th best in FCS history) and receptions in a game (19).

WIU’s Record: Western Illinois is 5-4 with a 4-2 conference record. They started with a close loss at Montana State, loss at FBS Illinois, and a win over Montana. In the MVFC, they have victories over Youngstown State, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and last weekend against Southern Illinois, and losses against Illinois State and North Dakota State.

USD’s Record: South Dakota is 3-6 overall and 2-4 in the MVFC. Their non-conference games included a close loss at FBS K-State, a win over Northern Colorado, then a loss at Weber State. In-conference, they have wins over Southern Illinois and Missouri State, and their losses are against Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, North Dakota State, and last week’s 3OT battle against Indiana State.

About Western Illinois: In MVFC games, WIU sits at #5 in total offense (404 ypg) and #6 in scoring (28.3 ppg). The run game is near the bottom, only putting up an average of 118 ypg, but the passing game is the best in the conference, with 287 ypg. QB Sean McGuire has a 274 ypg average (2nd in the MVFC)  with 14 TDs and 7 interceptions. WR Isaiah Lesure sits at #2 in the conference with 91 ypg and 4 TDs receiving and RB Clint Ratkovich has picked up 54 ypg with 3 TDs. As I mentioned, the ground game hasn’t been great this year, but RB Steve McShane is really more of an “all-around” threat, with 63 ypg and 5 TDs on the ground, 34 ypg and 2 TD receiving, and averages 11.7 per punt return. The WIU defense is currently the best at limiting total yardage with a 327 ypg average, #1 at stopping the run (110 ypg) and #2 against the pass (217 ypg) although they’ve given up 28.3 ppg, which is 6th in the conference. They lead the conference in sacks with 22. Defensive leaders include LB Quentin Moon with 8.5 tackles per game and LB Pete Swenson who leads the conference in tackles for loss (2.75 per game) and sacks (1.5 per game). Moon and Swenson are also tied for #1 in the MVFC in forced fumbles, with 3 each through 6 games. DBs Xavier Rowe and Zach Muniz are #2 and #4 in the MVFC for defended passes.

About South Dakota: South Dakota’s offense is #3 at covering yardage (417 ypg) and is tied for #4 in scoring with 28.8 ppg. Like WIU, they lean heavily on the passing game, putting up 283 ypg (#2) through the air, but only 134 ypg (#8) on the ground. QB Austin Simmons is the top QB in the conference for average passing yards per game with 280 along with 9 TDs and 4 interceptions. Simmons has also run for 24 ypg and 1 TD. WRs Dakarai Allen (90 ypg w/ 3 TDs) and Levi Falck (45 ypg w/ 2 TDs) are the top receivers and RB Kai Henry gets most of the ground yardage, averaging 56 ypg with 5 TDs. Henry is also #2 in the conference at kick returns, averaging just over 28 yards per return. Their O-line has been an issue, however, giving up 20 sacks through 6 MVFC games. When the other team has the ball, USD gives up the third-most yards in the MVFC (476 ypg) and the most points (38.8 ppg). They’re stronger against the pass (5th) than they are against the running game (9th). DB Andrew Gray leads the Coyotes in tackles with 9 per game with twin brother LB Alex picking up 7.7 per game. DB Mark Collins leads the conference in defended passes, averaging 2.4 per game with 1 interception.

My Take: WIU generally seems to do well playing in Vermillion and is still in the hunt for a playoff spot. USD is already out of playoff consideration at this point, but that just means they’ve got nothing to lose and would love to be the spoiler to Western. I think the offenses are fairly comparable between the two teams, but WIU’s defense has been playing pretty well, especially lately. Any team in the MVFC can be dangerous if you underestimate them but I think that having last-place SIU nearly knock off WIU last weekend will be the wake-up call that the Leathernecks need to push through. I think that it’ll be a close game, but that Western Illinois will stay ahead just enough to win by a couple of FGs, 34-28.


South Dakota State at Southern Illinois

The Series: The Jackrabbits and Salukis have played 8 times starting in 2008 with SDSU holding a 5-3 series lead. SIU won the first two meetings, before SDSU took over and won 5 out of the last 6. Last year’s game was a 49-14 Jackrabbit win in Brookings.

SDSU’s Record: South Dakota State is 6-2 with a 4-2 conference record. Their first game at FBS Iowa State was cancelled due to weather, then they beat both Montana State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home. In the MVFC, they have wins over Indiana State in OT, Youngstown State, Illinois State, and last Saturday against Missouri State. Their losses came against North Dakota State and Northern Iowa.

SIU’s Record: Southern Illinois is 2-7 this season and 1-5 against the MVFC. Non-conference matchups included a win over Murray State, loss at FBS Ole Miss, and a close loss to non-conference rival Southeast Missouri State. They have a conference win over Missouri State and losses against South Dakota, Youngstown State, Illinois State, Indiana State, and last weekend against Western Illinois

About South Dakota State: SDSU has the #2 offense in the MVFC in both scoring (35.5 ppg) and total yardage (421 ypg), with the #4 run game (188 ypg) and #5 passing game (232 ypg). They’re led by QB Taryn Christion, who counts for pretty much all of the passing yards, has 14 TDs and 6 interceptions, and is decent at running the ball, picking up 27 ypg with 3 TDs. The top RB is Mikey Daniel with 51 ypg and 3 TDs, while R-Freshman RB Pierre Strong Jr. has really picked up steam since Isaac Wallace went down to injury, having a 136 yard & 2 TD performance last week. WRs Cade Johnson (86 ypg, 5 TDs) and Adam Anderson (66 ypg, 5 TDs) are both in the top 10 of the MVFC. The offensive line is exceptional, limiting MVFC teams to a league-fewest 6 total sacks in 6 games and overall the offense is the least-penalized with only 41 yards per game in penalty yards. PK Chase Vinatieri may not be the most accurate FG kicker in the conference, but has a pretty serious range, making FGs from as far as 57 yards this season. The SDSU defense is good at limiting scoring (3rd w/ 23 ppg) despite giving up a decent number of yards (6th w/ 376 ypg). They’re 4th against the pass in MVFC games and 5th against the run. LB Christian Rozeboom leads the team with 6.7 tackles per game with DL Ryan Earith sitting at #3 in the conference in tackles for loss, averaging 1.25 per game. DB Jordan Brown defends passes at a rate of 1.17 per game, with 2 interceptions.

About Southern Illinois: The Saluki offense puts up 23.7 ppg (8th) against MVFC teams and is 7th in total yards (382 ypg), with much of it coming from their ground game where they are 3rd in the conference at 196 ypg. The passing game is 9th at 186 ypg. QB Matt DeSomer was given the starting job a few games ago and in those 3 games, has averaged 193 ypg through the air with 6 TDs and 2 interceptions, and has averaged 81 ypg with 1 TD rushing. Their other main rusher is RB DJ Davis, who is #7 in the MVFC with 74 ypg and 4 TDs. WR Raphael Leonard gets most of the receiving yards with 73 ypg and 1 TD, but TE Nigel Kilby also contributes to the short passing game, with 41 ypg and 4 TDs. On defense, SIU gives up the 7th fewest points and total yards in the conference, at 32 ppg and 425 ypg. They’re also 7th both against the run and against the pass. They’re decent at putting pressure on opposing QBs, sitting at 3rd for sacks (15 total in 6 games) and tied for 2nd for number of interceptions with the most interception return yards, picking up 176 yards and a TD off of 8 interceptions. LB Bryce Notree is their tackle leader, averaging 8.3 per game and DE Anthony Knighton is tied for 4th in the conference for sacks (4 in 6 games). DB Jeremy Chinn currently leads the conference in interceptions with 3 and has returned them for a total of 95 yards (also #1 in the MVFC).

My Take: SIU very nearly came away with a win last weekend against a decent WIU team, while SDSU absolutely crushed Missouri State. I feel like SIU might have a bit of a let-down after last weekend’s heartbreaking loss. I think South Dakota State should fairly solidly win this game, although it’ll be a bit closer than their game last week. My prediction is a 38-23 Jackrabbit win.


North Dakota State at Missouri State

The Series: The Bison and Bears have faced off 10 times beginning in 2008. NDSU has the 8-2 advantage in the series and have won the last 7 straight. MSU’s wins came in 2009 and 2010. Last year’s matchup was a 38-11 win for NDSU in Fargo.

NDSU’s Record: 9-0…6-0 in the conference. Non-conference wins over Cal Poly, North Alabama, and Delaware (all in Fargo). Wins at home against South Dakota State, Illinois State, and last weekend against Youngstown State, with road wins at Northern Iowa, Western Illinois, and South Dakota.

MSU’s Record: The Bears are 4-5 this season, with a 2-4 conference record. They opened the season with a loss at FBS Oklahoma State, a win over DII Lincoln University, and a win over Northern Arizona. In the MVFC, they have wins over Illinois State and Indiana State, and losses to South Dakota, Western Illinois, Southern Illinois, and their game last weekend at South Dakota State.

About North Dakota State: The NDSU offense ranks 4th in total offense (416 ypg) with the #2 run game (238 ypg) and last-place passing offense (177.3 ypg). The thing is, they don’t have to have a great passing offense in terms of big numbers when their ground game is so good and their offensive efficiency is also #1 in the conference. That just means that when QB Easton Stick does pass, he usually does it well and makes very few mistakes (only 2 INTs). For scoring, NDSU is #1 in the conference at 35.8 ppg. QB Stick averages 159 ypg with 11 TDs (and the 2 INTs) and WR Darrius Shepherd is the #1 receiver in the conference at 96 ypg with 4 TDs. Otherwise, it’s all about the ground game, with RBs Lance Dunn (83 ypg w/ 5 TDs), Bruce Anderson (65 ypg), and the QB Stick (49 ypg w/ 6 TDs) all in the top 15 in the conference for rushing yards. Shepherd is also at the top of the conference for punt returns, averaging 19.7 yards per return. The O-line does their part, allowing only 8 sacks (tied for #2 in the conference) in 6 MVFC games and Punter Garret Wegner helps the field position battle with a 43.3 yard average on 30 punts with 12 inside the 20. The Bison defense is also #1 in allowing points, giving up only 15 per game, and are #3 in total yards allowed (350 ypg). They’re #2 at stopping the run (111 ypg) but have been vulnerable to a good passing game at times, giving up 239 ypg through the air (8th). They are #2 in the conference at sacking opposing QBs (17 sacks) and are #1 in interceptions (10). No one specific player gets a huge number of tackles, but everyone does pretty much exactly what’s needed. LB Jabril Cox leads the team with 7 tackles per game and also has 3 sacks and LB Dan Marlette is just behind him with 6.8 tackles per game. DE Greg Menard is #3 in the MVFC for sacks with 5.5 through 6 games, and DB’s Jalen Allison, Robbie Grimsley, and James Hendricks have 2 interceptions each.

About Missouri State: The Bears have a pretty good passing offense, sitting at #4 in the conference at 243 ypg. That’s…well…that’s kinda about it, as they’re last in rushing offense (117 ypg) and total yardage (360 ypg) and 2nd to last in points put on the board (19.2 ppg). QB Peyton Huslig is the star of the offense, passing for 238 ypg with 9 TDs and running for 34 ypg with 4 TDs…although he also has 9 interceptions. Doing most of the catching are WRs Tyler Currie and Lorenzo Thomas, who have 69 ypg (4 TDs) and 62 ypg (1 TD) respectively. On defense, MSU is giving up a league-worst 484 ypg, are particularly weak against the pass (10th, 251 ypg) and only slightly better against the run (8th, 233 ypg). They give up 36.8 points per game, 9th in the MVFC. LBs Angelo Garbutt and McNeece Egbim lead the team in tackles with 10.5 and 9.3 per game with DE Matt McClellan picking up 3.5 sacks in 6 games. S Jared Beshore has 2 interceptions against MVFC teams.

My Take: Despite NDSU struggling against YSU last weekend, they’re still pretty well “head and shoulders” above everyone else in the FCS. If anything, I think last week might be a “wake up call” for the Bison and they will step things up for the last couple of games of the season. Against MSU, they have the advantage in pretty well every aspect of the game, so I just don’t really see this being a close game. NDSU doesn’t completely blow anyone out usually…once their up by a few scores, they usually take their foot off the gas and let their defense and punishing ground game just grind away until the game is over. I see this one being about like that, and NDSU coming away with something resembling a 36-10 win.

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1105 – Wk11 PREVIEW

Kris and Lance go over a few of the big games with playoff/conference  implications coming up this weekend.

Towson @ Elon

Delaware @ Stony Brook

Rhode Island @ James Madison

UC Davis @ Eastern Washington

Kennesaw State @ Monmouth

Sacred Heart @ Duquesne

This week’s Three Big Questions segment turns out to only be two questions but it’s full of upcoming playoff possibility talk so hit that play button.

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1105 – Wk10 REVIEW

Topic 1: And then there was one. All indicators pointed toward another NDSU – JMU rematch in the championship game. No one could have predicted that right? Watch out, I feel some branding coming on from Lance…

These are the games for review this week.

UNH 34 JMU 24
Samford 35 Wofford 20
Furman 16 Chattanooga 10
Northern Iowa 26 Illinois State 16
Maine 35 Towson 28
Princeton 14 Dartmouth 9

Kris and Lance move on to analyze the AGS Poll for Week 11.

As usual the show’s last segment is the “What did we learn” segment. Here is what we learned:

The Southland is a mess.

The Southern is a mess.

The CAA is a mess.

The Colonial at least has decent OOC wins against WKU, the Citadel, and Furman but they continue to predominately hang their hats on beating each other.

AGS Poll: Week 10 Top 25 Results

After a relatively quiet week 9 the volatility returned to the AGS Poll in week 10 as 8 top 25 team took losses, 7 of which to teams ranked below them or not at all. North Dakota State remained the unanimous #1 team and sliding in behind them at #2 was UC Davis setting yet another all-time record high ranking in the AGS Poll. There followed by Kennesaw State and Weber State at #3 and #4, respectively, and Eastern Washington climbed back into the top 5 coming in at #5.

The high risers on the week were led by some teams that have been slowly climbing the rankings all year. Colgate, Princeton, and Idaho State all took advantage of some losses in front of them to move up 3 spots each to #9, #12, and #14, respectively. Maine used an upset over CAA rival Towson to move up 9 spots to #13. Northern Iowa moved up 6 spots to #18 after taking down Illinois State. East Tennessee State moved up 5 spots to #20 after another close win moved them to 8-2 on the year. Southeast Missouri State made their first appearance in the AGS Top 25 since 2014 moving up 6 spots to #21. Western Illinois also moved up 6 spots to get back into the top 25 at #23 after a 4 week absence. North Carolina A&T toggled back into the top 25 again this week moving up 2 spots to #24.

James Madison led the group of teams moving in the opposite direction after they dropped 8 spots down to #10 after being stunned by unranked New Hampshire. Fellow CAA conference-mate Towson dropped 4 spots to #15 after their aforementioned loss to Maine. Wofford took a 7 spot dip after getting upended by SOCON rival Samford. McNeese nearly dropped out of the top 25 taking a 9 spot drop to cling on to #25 after losing for the 2nd time in 3 games. After their loss to Lamar last Saturday Central Arkansas dropped out of the top 25 for the first time since early 2016 ending a 34 week streak in the top 25. Illinois State and North Dakota also dropped out of the top 25 after sustaining losses last Saturday.

In terms of conference representation the CAA once again led the way placing 6 teams into the top 25. They were followed by Big Sky and MVFC who each had 4 and then the Ivy League, OVC, SOCON, and Southland who each had 2 teams in the top 25. There were 10 conferences represented in the top 25 alone this week.

Full results below:

Rank Change Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 North Dakota State Bison 2150 86
2 1 UC Davis Aggies 2027
3 1 Kennesaw State Owls 1893
4 1 Weber State Wildcats 1838
5 1 Eastern Washington Eagles 1787
6 1 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1746
7 1 Elon Phoenix 1606
8 2 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 1538
9 3 Colgate Raiders 1452
10 -8 James Madison Dukes 1378
11 2 Stony Brook Seawolves 1173
12 3 Princeton Tigers 1088
13 9 Maine Black Bears 972
14 3 Idaho State Bengals 871
15 -4 Towson Tigers 851
16 -7 Wofford Terriers 782
17 1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 704
18 6 Northern Iowa Panthers 684
19 1 Nicholls State Colonels 673
20 5 East Tennessee State Buccaneers 498
21 6 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 446
22 -3 Dartmouth Big Green 365
23 6 Western Illinois Leathernecks 313
24 2 North Carolina A&T Aggies 302
25 -9 McNeese State Cowboys 224
ORV:
26 -12 Illinois State Redbirds 218
27 7 Samford Bulldogs 111
28 -1 Rhode Island Rams 55
29 4 Monmouth Hawks 37
30 NR Furman Paladins 30
31 NR Lamar Cardinals 26
32 NR Indiana State Sycamores 22
33 -10 Central Arkansas Bears 20
34 NR Incarnate Word Cardinals 17
35 -1 San Diego Toreros 16
36 -15 North Dakota Fighting Hawks 15
37 -7 Chattanooga Mocs 12
38 NR Montana State Bobcats 5
39 -3 Abilene Christian Wildcats 4
40 NR Yale Bulldogs 1

Most significant win: Maine Black Bears
Most significant loss: James Madison Dukes

Dropped out of the poll:
Florida A&M Rattlers
Sam Houston State Bearkats

Join the discussion here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?217198-AGS-Poll-Results-WEEK-10-POLL-2018-SEASON

MVFC Week 10 In Review

MVFC Logo

The Scores

South Dakota – 48
Indiana State – 51
3 OT’s

Illinois State – 16
Northern Iowa – 26

Western Illinois – 34
Southern Illinois – 31

Missouri State – 7
South Dakota State – 59

Youngstown State – 7
North Dakota State – 17


South Dakota at Indiana State

The host Sycamores struck first on an 11-yard TD pass from QB Ryan Boyle to WR Dakota Caton, but the Coyotes were able to respond on their next drive with a bunch of plays, mostly runs, ending in an 8-yard TD run by RB Canaan Brooks to tie things up. A decent kick return gave ISU the ball at midfield to start their next drive and they were able to get that one into the end zone on a 20-yard run by the QB Boyle. In the 2nd quarter, ISU was only able to pick up 8 yards on a 3rd and 13, but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on USD gave them the 1st down and they were able to march down the field for another TD, this time a 14-yard TD pass to WR Dante Jones II to put ISU up 21-7. A few drives later, USD started on their own 8 yard line and took 16 plays to get the the other end of the field. With a 4th and goal from the 3, QB Austin Simmons threw a TD pass to RB Kai Henry, but it was negated by offsetting penalties (replay the down), so USD had to give it another go, this time hitting WR Dakarai Allen on a 3-yard TD pass to pull within 7, making the halftime score 21-14 for the Sycamores.

Late in the 3rd, USD was in the red zone, but a completed pass turned into a fumble forced by ISU LB Jonas Griffith and picked up by LB Katrell Moss. Indiana State wasn’t able to do anything with it though, picking up only 1 first down on their next drive. Nearing the end of the quarter, though, the Coyotes QB Austin Simmons hit a 28-yard TD pass to WR Levi Falck to tie things up at 21. In the 4th, ISU got down to the 5 yard line on a 37-yard pass to WR Caton, but had to settle for a FG. USD responded similarly, using a 40-yard pass to WR Shamar Jackson to get close, eventually to the ISU 2, but also settled for a FG. On their next drive, Indiana State QB Boyle ran for 39 yards, got an additional 15 yards on a USD penalty, then on the next play, ran 25 yards in for the TD to take the lead with under 3 minutes left. South Dakota then took all but the last 16 seconds to work their way down the field and finish with a TD pass to TE Brett Samson, tying things up at 31, and they were on to “bonus” football.

In the first OT period, USD QB Austin Simmons ran 24 yards to the 1, and then was taken in by RB Henry. ISU needed only one play to answer with a 25-yard TD pass to WR Dante Hendrix.
In the second OT, ISU took an eternity (comparatively) of 6 plays before TE Zach Larkin caught a TD pass, but it was USD’s turn to answer after 3 more plays on a 10-yard run by Henry.
On to the third overtime period, South Dakota started with the ball, but wasn’t able to move it much of anywhere and had to come away with a 27-yard FG. On Indiana State’s turn, though, Boyle was able to run 15 yards to get them close, and a few plays later pick up a TD on a pass to Hendrix, securing the 3-point win (you don’t try for the XP in that situation).

USD QB Austin Simmons threw for 375 yards with 3 TDs with 94 yards going to WR Shamar Jackson and 88 yards and a TD to WR Dakarai Allen. RB Kai Henry ran for 113 yards and 2 TDs. LB Alex Gray led the team with 12 tackles (6 solo) and CB Isaac Armstead forced a fumble recovered by LB Alex Coker. ISU QB Ryan Boyle threw for 193 yards and 5 TDs while running for 187 yards and 2 TDs. The combined 7 TDs was a school record and it earned Boyle both the MVFC Offensive Player and Newcomer of the Week awards. RB Titus McCoy also had 123 yards on the ground, while WRs Dante Hendrix and Dakota Caton had 111 yards w/ 2 TDs and 53 yards and 1 TD respectively. LBs Katrell Moss and Jonas Griffith continued their domination with 18 tackles and a fumble recovery for Moss, and 16 tackles with 1 sack and a forced fumble for Griffith. For his performance, Moss was awarded the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award.

South Dakota drops to 3-6 overall with a 2-4 conference record and will head back home to host Western Illinois in a week. Indiana State is now 5-4 and is 3-3 against MVFC teams and will stay home hosting Illinois State next weekend.


Illinois State at Northern Iowa

Right off the bat, ISU started with good field position after a failed onside kick by UNI gave the Redbirds the ball at the UNI 28. A few runs later, they had the first points on a 27-yard FG. UNI answered with their own 30-yard FG by PK Austin Errthum on their next drive, which then became a defensive stalemate until the 2nd quarter, when UNI was able to get another 30-yard FG, moving ahead 6-3. UNI got down to the 9 on their next drive after holding ISU to a 3-and-out and picked up another 3 on a 27-yard FG. In the time honored words of band directors everywhere…”do it again”…another 3-and-out for ISU, another 11-play drive ending in a FG for the Panthers, this time from 43 yards out. On ISU’s next play from scrimmage, QB Jake Kolbe threw a pass to UNI LB Duncan Ferch who was able to take it 31 yards to the end zone to put UNI up 19-3. Late in the 2nd, UNI QB Eli Dunne threw his own INT to ISU DB Devin Taylor in the Panther’s end zone to hold the UNI lead at 16 going into halftime.

In the 3rd, ISU QB Kolbe threw another pass to someone in purple, this time UNI DB Korby Sander. Two plays later, RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 14 yards into the end zone to go ahead 26-3. Defense reigned the rest of the quarter, as it wasn’t until nearly halfway through the 4th when the next points showed up on an 11-yard pass by Kolbe to WR Spencer Schnell to pull back within 16. On their next drive, ISU again found their way to the end zone on a 38-yard TD pass to WR Braxton Haley, but the 2-pt conversion would fail, giving the Redbirds a 10-point deficit with under 4 minutes remaining. UNI was then able to pick up a couple of first downs and eat the remaining time, coming away with a 26-16 victory.

ISU QB Jake Kolbe had 180 yards and 2 TDs through the air, with WRs Braxton Haley and Spencer Schnell catching those TDs. RB James Robinson was held to 40 yards rushing and was kept out of the end zone, something only two other teams had been able to do this season (MSU and SDSU). DB Luther Kirk led the Redbirds with 10 tackles (6 solo) and DB Devin Taylor had a solid game with 5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 pass breakup and 1 QB hurry. Punter JT Bohlken averaged 42.9 yards per on 8 punts. UNI QB Eli Dunne threw for 262 yards and 1 INT. WR Briley Moore topped the receiving list with 4 catches for 76 yards, but Marcus Weymiller handled most of the ground game, picking up 109 yards (out of a team total of 125 yards) and 1 TD. DB Korby Sander led the Panthers with 10 tackles (4 solo) and an INT, while LB Duncan Ferch had 5 tackles to go along with his INT->TD. Punter Michael Kuntz had 5 punts averaging 43.8 with 4 dropping within the 20, but it was kicker Austin Errthum who nailed 4 FGs (long of 43), had 7 kickoffs averaging 65 yards, converted 2 XP attempts, and came away with the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award.

Illinois State falls to 5-4 overall and 2-4 in conference and will head over to Terre Haute to take on Indiana State next weekend. Northern Iowa is also 5-4, but has a 4-2 conference record and will head out east to take on Youngstown State in a week.


Western Illinois at Southern Illinois

The weirdness started early in this game, when 4 plays in, SIU RB D.J. Davis was stripped of the ball by WIU DT Shabar Wilson, which was landed on by LB Zach Glisan. 3 plays into WIU’s drive, QB Sean McGuire threw a pass to SIU S Jeremy Chinn. Not to be outdone, 3 plays later, SIU QB Matt DeSomer tossed one to WIU DB Darron Wheeler. So…10 plays, 3 turnovers…and we weren’t even 5 minutes into the game. A bit later though, SIU had figured out how to hold onto the ball and got it into the end zone on a 4-yard run by RB Davis. WIU responded on their next drive, when RB Max Norris got WIU down to the SIU 1 yard line on a 40-yard run and RB Steve McShane took it in to tie things up. In the 2nd quarter, WIU took the lead on a 14-yard pass to RB Clint Ratkovich. SIU took their next drive to the WIU 19 and had to settle for a FG to pull within 4. After pinning the Leathernecks deep at their own 3 and the Saluki defense holding them to a total gain of 2 yards, a punt from the end zone and a 13-yard return gave SIU the ball at the WIU 39, which they were able to take into the end zone on a 20-yard pass to WR JeQuan Burton, giving SIU a 17-14 lead into halftime.

WIU started with the ball in the 3rd on the 50 after a failed onside kick on the kickoff and were able to get down to the SIU 1 yard line but were stopped on 3rd and goal. The 19-yard FG was good, but a roughing the kicker penalty gave WIU another chance to get it into the end zone (or to keep the points). Now, it’s hard to tell from the video, but it looked like WIU had the ball at the 1, kicked the FG, took the penalty (which the ref said was half the distance to the goal and replay the down) but then put the ball back at the 1 yard line. I can’t confirm that, but I know that one of our radio guys was absolutely livid about it. Anyway, the 4th and goal attempt from the 1 failed, which essentially felt like the “turning point” of the game. SIU then drove 98 yards in 12 plays including a couple of big passes to WRs Raphael Leonard and Landon Lenoir and RB Jonathan Mixon was able to run the final 2 yards for a TD to give SIU a 10 point lead. Two plays into the next drive, WIU QB McGuire threw a low pass right into the hands of SIU DE Anthony Knighton. 6 plays later, SIU QB DeSomer had thrown a 30-yard TD pass to WR Leonard and SIU was up 31-14 going into the final quarter. WIU was able to get down to the SIU 16 and get a 34-yard FG from kicker Sam Crosa to pull within 14, then on SIU’s next play from scrimmage, WIU DE Kyle Williams forced the ball from the hands of SIU RB Mixon, which was recovered by DT Shabar Wilson. The Leathernecks were able to move down the field and top it off with a 4-yard TD run by RB McShane, bringing them within 7. WIU’s defense only allowed 1 first down on the next drive, forcing a punt that pinned WIU at their own 4 yard line…which was when everything completely went off the rails for the Salukis. An incomplete pass turned into 15 yards from a pass interference. Another incomplete pass…another pass interference…another 15 yards. A completed pass to RB Steve McShane popped out of his hands and right into the hands of a SIU defender…but was negated because what helped cause the fumble was someone yanking on his facemask…15 more yards for WIU. Then, a couple of incomplete passes later, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against the SIU bench (radio guys said it was actually against AD Jerry Kill who was still upset about the facemask penalty nullifying the turnover. So, now that SIU had spotted WIU 60 yards from penalties, the Leathernecks were able to finish the rest of the way, eventually hitting a 5 yard pass to TE Adam Conrady to tie things up at 31 with under 4 minutes left in the game. SIU took 2 minutes on 6 plays during their next drive but were only able to advance the ball a net 3 yards, and WIU used a 26-yard pass to WR Isaiah Lesure to get close enough for PK Sam Crosa to hit a 33-yard FG to go ahead by 3. The Salukis were able to get just across the 50 with very little time left on their next drive before WIU LB Pete Swenson sacked DeSomer and forced a fumble that was picked up by DE Khalen Saunders. Saunders, in his excitement, started running with the ball and got 8 yards before he realized the situation and just downed the ball, effectively ending the game, completing the epic comeback, and sealing the win, 34-31 for the Leathernecks.

WIU QB Sean McGuire threw for 283 yards and 2 TDs but also had 2 INTs, with 71 yards of those going to WR Tony Tate. RB Max Norris had the most ground yards with 91, while RB Steve McShane had 32 yards and 2 TDs. LB Quentin Moon led the team with 10 tackles (5 solo), 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble. LB Pete Swenson had 7 tackles (6 solo), with 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. DE Kyle Williams and DT Shabar Wilson also had forced fumbles with Wilson, LB Zach Glisan and DL Khalen Saunders all recovering fumbles. SIU QB Matt DeSomer had 208 yards and 2 TDs through the air with 1 INT, and ran for 15 yards (his fewest in a starting role by quite a bit). WR Raphael Leonard caught 6 passes for 97 yards and 1 TD and RB Jonathan Mixon led the ground game with 71 yards and 1 TD. S Qua Brown led the Salukis with 10 tackles (7 solo) and a forced fumble. S Jeremy Chinn had 8 tackles and an INT with 2 pass breakups, and DE Anthony Knighton picked up an interception as well.

Western Illinois moves up to 5-4 with a 4-2 conference record and will head up to the DakotaDome to take on South Dakota next weekend. Southern Illinois drops to 2-7 overall and 1-5 in the MVFC. They’ll have a tough last couple of weeks starting with their final home game against South Dakota State next weekend (then at NDSU to end the season).


Missouri State at South Dakota State

A few drives into the game, SDSU got their first of many points on a 1-play drive that was a 55-yard TD run by R-Freshman RB Pierre Strong Jr. A pass by SDSU QB Taryn Christion was intercepted by MSU S Jared Beshore, but the Bears weren’t able to do anything with it. In the 2nd quarter, SDSU’s Strong ran for another long TD, this time from 54 yards out. A while later, a 34-yard pass to WR Cade Johnson made it 21-0 Jackrabbits. 3 plays from scrimmage later, LB Christian Rozeboom picked off MSU QB Peyton Huslig, and SDSU used 1 play and 5 seconds to score again on a 42-yard TD pass to WR Johnson. MSU was held to a 3-and-out on the next drive and SDSU used a 32 yard run by WR Deyon Campbell to get close enough for a 45-yard FG by PK Chase Vinatieri, pulling ahead 31-0, still with over 4 minutes left in the first half. MSU Tyler Currie finally got the Bears on the board after a 7-play, 75-yard drive with a 10-yard TD catch, but the Jackrabbits answered right back a few plays later with a 32-yard TD run by QB Christion, making the halftime score 38-7.

In the 3rd, MSU QB Huslig had a pass intercepted by SDSU CB Jordan Brown, but they weren’t able to turn it into points, missing on a 53-yard FG attempt. At this point, MSU put in R-Freshman QB Dalton Hill, who had his 3rd pass attempt intercepted by LB Logan Backhaus. It wasn’t until 2 drives later that SDSU would start at the MSU 37 and a couple of passes later, find the end zone again on a 12-yard pass to WR Adam Anderson. 3-and-out for MSU on their next drive, but SDSU gave it right back on another interception by MSU’s Beshore, but the Bears weren’t able to get anywhere with it. In the 4th quarter, QB Christion again hit a TD pass to WR Anderson…this time from 19 yards, putting them up 52-7. MSU was stopped again on their next drive and to add insult to injury, had their punt blocked giving SDSU the ball nearly in the red zone. A few plays later and RB Blair Mulholland took it 1 yard into the end zone. MSU then put in QB JT Granato, who also had his third play result in an interception, this time by SDSU S Jarek Berg. SDSU would miss a 27-yard FG, keeping them under 60 points, but still the Jackrabbits were able to finish the game with a 59-7 victory.

MSU QB Peyton Huslig had 134 yards passing with 1 TD and 2 INTs (and the two other players in at QB had 19 total yards and 2 INTs). 78 of those passing yards and the lone TD went to WR Tyler Currie. LB Angelo Garbutt had 11 tackles in the game (7 solo) and S Jared Beshore had 4 tackles to go along with his 2 interceptions. SDSU QB Taryn Christion threw for 259 yards and 4 TDs with 2 INTs and ran for 32 yards and 1 TD. WRs Cade Johnson and Adam Anderson each had 2 receiving TDs, with Johnson getting 130 yards and Anderson with 85. RB Pierre Strong ran for 136 yards and 2 TDs. LBs Eric Kleinschmit and Logan Backhaus along with DE Ryan Earith led the team with 5 tackles each. Backhaus had an interception and Earith had a sack. LB Christian Rozeboom, S Jarek Berg, and CB Jordan Brown all had interceptions as well.

Missouri State falls to 4-5 after losing their last 3 and are 2-4 in conference. They’ll head back home and host North Dakota State next weekend for Senior Day. South Dakota State meanwhile is 6-2 with a 4-2 conference record and head down south to take on Southern Illinois in Carbondale in a week.


Youngstown State at North Dakota State

Defenses were solid in this game, with the longest play in the first quarter being 13 yards and the most interesting thing a fumble by NDSU RB Ty Brooks forced by YSU LB Armand Dellovade and recovered by DB Avery Larkin. In the 2nd, a 52-yard missed FG by NDSU kicker Cam Pederson kept the game scoreless until nearly 6 minutes into the quarter when QB Easton Stick threw a couple of big passes…50 yards to WR Desmond Cain to set up a 30-yard TD pass to RB Lance Dunn and giving the Bison a 7-0 lead. Later in the quarter, a NDSU punt was blocked, giving YSU the ball at the NDSU 12 yard line. A couple of plays later, on 3rd and 10 from the 12 QB Nathan Mays completed a 9-yard pass, but apparently didn’t realize that they hadn’t gotten the 1st down because he immediately took the snap and “clocked” the ball…turning it over on downs 3 yards away from the end zone. NDSU was able to just down it to run out the clock in the half, up only by a TD.

In the 3rd quarter, it was much of the same defensive battle, until about 3 minutes left in the quarter when YSU would tie things up with a 21-yard TD pass to TE Miles Joiner. Early in the 4th though, NDSU would get a lead that they would not relinquish after a drive that ended in three straight runs by QB Stick totaling 11 yards and a TD. The Bison held the Penguins to a 3-and-out on their next drive and were able to get close enough for a 36-yard FG to go up by 10. YSU then put in QB Montgomery VanGorder (who had been their starting QB for most of the season) but was only able to get just about to midfield before an incomplete pass on 4th and 2. NDSU’s next drive ended with another failed FG attempt, this time from 42 yards out and while YSU was able to move the ball 46 yards to the NDSU 30, VanGorder’s pass was intercepted by NDSU S Robbie Grimsley. From there, the Bison were able to just kneel and walk away with a 17-7 victory.

YSU QB Nathan Mays threw for 120 yards and 1 TD while running for 58 yards and QB VanGorder had 85 yards passing and 1 INT. TE Miles Joiner had the lone TD reception along with 39 yards receiving and WR Jermiah Braswell led the Penguins with 60 yards on 3 catches. LB Armand Dellovade led the team with 16 tackles (7 solo) and the forced fumble. NDSU QB Easton Stick threw for 197 yards and 1 TD and ran for 43 yards and 1 TD. RB Lance Dunn finished with an even 100 net yards on the ground and 1 30-yard TD catch, while WR Darrius Shepherd came up 1 yard short of triple-digits with 99 yards on 8 catches. LBs Jabril Cox and Dan Marlette each had 8 tackles, each with 1 tackle for loss, and S Robbie Grimsley had 6 tackles to go with his interception. DE Greg Menard had 1.5 sacks and 2 QB hurries.

Youngstown State is now 3-6 on the season with a 2-4 conference record. They’ll host UNI for Senior Day next weekend. North Dakota State is still undefeated, 9-0 overall and 6-0 in the MVFC and have officially locked up the conference championship again. They’ll travel to Missouri State next Saturday.


MVFC Standings

Team, Overall (MVFC) – last two games
North Dakota State, 9-0 (6-0) – @MSU, SIU
South Dakota State, 6-2 (4-2) – @SIU, USD
Northern Iowa, 5-4 (4-2) – @YSU, MSU
Western Illinois, 5-4 (4-2) – @USD, INSU
Indiana State, 5-4 (3-3) – ILSU, @WIU
Illinois State, 5-4 (2-4) – @INSU, YSU
Missouri State, 4-5 (2-4) – NDSU, @UNI
South Dakota, 3-6 (2-4) – WIU, @SDSU
Youngstown State, 3-6 (2-4) – UNI, @ILSU
Southern Illinois, 2-7 (1-5) – SDSU, @NDSU

As usual, “Professor Chaos” over at AnyGivenSaturday.com has written an excellent breakdown of each team’s playoff chances and they need to do…you can go check out here.
The short version is essentially:
NDSU has locked up the conference auto-bid.
SDSU needs to win 1 of their last 2 to make it in.
WIU, UNI, ILSU, and INSU all could make it into the playoffs if any of them win their last two. They can’t all win out as INSU still has games against ILSU and WIU to finish out the season.
MSU, USD, YSU, and SIU are all effectively eliminated


How’d I Do?

USD at INSU – I thought INSU 30-27. It was INSU 51-48. So, I had the margin right, and the score at the end of regulation was tied at 31, so I was close with those numbers too…only got higher because of the 3 OT periods.

ILSU at UNI – I thought ILSU 28-21. It was UNI 26-16. I should have listened to the UNI fans that informed me that “farley-ing it up” meant that they’d crush the Redbirds and then somehow lose to Missouri State at the end of the season.

WIU at SIU – I though WIU 32-24. It was WIU 34-31. Pretty close overall, although I did not expect how it played out. I did say it felt like a “trap game” and WIU has always had a hard time in Carbondale (this was the first win there since 2000), so it wasn’t a huge surprise that we struggled.

MSU at SDSU – I thought SDSU 41-21. It was SDSU 59-7. Ok, so they just flat out destroyed MSU. My predictions did say “I think SDSU’s offense will probably tear apart MSU’s defense”…so that’s pretty much correct.

YSU at NDSU – I thought NDSU 56-7 and that the Bison could “name their score”. It was 17-7 in a defensive struggle that could have easily been tied at the end if one or two plays had gone a slightly different direction (like not directly at the ground on 4th down). I don’t feel like I can count this as a “win” in terms of my prediction…it was NOTHING like I expected to see.

Previously I was 11-9 in my picks. 3-2 this week, so I’m 14-11 now.

Only two weeks remain in the regular season. Up next weekend is Northern Iowa at Youngstown State, Illinois State at Indiana State, Western Illinois at South Dakota, South Dakota State at Southern Illinois, and North Dakota State at Missouri. UNI, WIU, and the two ISU’s need to keep winning to keep their playoff hopes alive, so that means that one of the ISU’s will effectively be eliminated next weekend and two other games will have significant impact on some “bubble teams” playoff chances.