The FCS Wedge

Holy Cross – The Crusaders captured their first Patriot League Title since 2009 with a 5-1 conference record. Holy Cross was the only team in the Patriot League to finish with a winning record. The Purple started the year by getting run out of Annapolis (45-7) by a bowl bound Navy team. Bob Chesney’s team responded a week later with a hard fought 13-10 win over a New Hampshire program in transition. After some inconsistent play over the next few weeks Holy Cross’s 31-10 win against Colgate set up a first place showdown at Lehigh to start November. The Crusaders held on for a 24-17 win to grab firm control of the league race. However, they would give it all away literally and figuratively the following week in a turnover filled 23-20 loss to Lafayette. As fate would have it, the Leopards stumbled against Colgate the ensuing Saturday to put Holy Cross back in the driver’s seat. The Crusaders took full advantage of the second opportunity by outscoring their final two opponents (Fordham & Georgetown) 73-27. Head Coach Bob Chesney won Patriot League Coach of the Year, while running back Domenic Cozier (1,050 yards 7 TD) captured Offensive Player of the Year honors.

Monmouth – The Hawks won their first ever Big South Title with a dominating 6-0 mark in conference play. Monmouth outscored their league competition on average 44-14. Monmouth’s most impressive performance during the 2019 season was their 43-21 dismantling of #23 Kennesaw State. Both of Monmouth’s losses came against quality competition; at FBS Western Michigan (48-13) and at #7 Montana (47-27). Kevin Callahan’s team snuck past their lone Patriot League foe Lafayette 24-21 in week two. The Hawks have reeled off eight straight wins since their September 21^st loss to Montana in Missoula. Adding to the momentum, Callahan’s program owns an impressive nine game winning streak against the Patriot League (15-10 overall). Monmouth’s high octane offense (36 ppg) was led by Big South Offensive Player of the Year Kenji Bahar (3,262 yards 28 TD 8 INT). Callahan was named the conference’s Coach of the Year.

Holy Cross Offense vs Monmouth Defense

Holy Cross’s offense managed a very pedestrian 22 ppg per game this season. The Crusaders were plagued by an inconsistent passing attack and predictable play calling throughout 2019. The “O” sputtered most when strong armed but often erratic junior quarterback Connor Degenhardt (2,361 yards 14 TD 6 INT) struggled to loosen up opposing defenses. Degenhardt’s strength is stretching the field with his big arm and arsenal of talented pass catchers. His favorite target is freshman Ayir Asante (46 rec 671 yards 5 TD). Junior wide receiver Ayeni Tenio (43 rec 568 yards 4 TD) suffered a leg injury in the regular season finale and will likely miss Saturday’s game. If Tenio can’t go tight end Derek Mountain (26 rec 399 yards 2 TD) has the ability to play a pivotal role. The straw that stirs the Holy Cross “O” is running back Domenic Cozier (Payton Award Finalist). Crusader Offensive Coordinator Patrick Murphy needs to feed Cozier the ball on a regular basis for 60 minutes. Holy Cross’s offensive line is an experienced, physical bunch capable of giving the Monmouth front 7 trouble. The Crusader’s ability to possess the ball will ensure the high-octane Hawk offense remains on the sideline.

Monmouth’s defense (24 ppg allowed) remained in the shadow of their explosive offense all season. Defensive Coordinator Andy Bobik’s unit was solid against the run (123 ypg allowed) and adequate slowing down the pass (232 ypg allowed). To be fair, the majority of Monmouth’s opponents were playing catch-up by halftime so the passing yards allowed number is a bit skewed. If the Monmouth defense can contain Cozier the odds of them winning greatly increases. The All-Big South duo of Rush End Erik Massey (8 TFL, 3 sacks) and linebacker Da’Quan Grimes (49 solo tackles, 11 TFL) need to be bring their “A” game against the stout Crusader offensive line. The Hawk secondary is led by defensive back Justin Terry (All-Big South). Terry will likely match-up with Crusader big play threat Ayir Asante for much of the afternoon. If Monmouth’s defense can prevent chunk pass plays and keep in Cozier in check, the Crusaders will have a tough time scoring points.

Monmouth Offense vs Holy Cross Defense

The strength of the 2019 Monmouth Hawks is without question their high-flying offense (36 ppg). Leading the way are two Payton Award Finalis; quarterback Kenji Baher and running back Pete Guerriero (1,668 yards 14 TD). The two All-Big South selections form arguably the most productive QB/RB combo in all of FCS. Offensive Coordinator Jeff Gallo also has two excellent wide receivers to utilize in the Monmouth attack. Lonnie Moore (63 rec 903 yards 9 TD) and Terrance Green (58 rec 793 yards 8 TD) should find plenty of space to operate in the Crusader’s leaky secondary. The least talked about but equally impressive part of the Monmouth “O” is their line. The leaders of the unit are two All-Big South bookend tackles; Justin Szuba (6’8 290) and Mahmoud Shabana (6’4 280).

The Holy Cross defense (22 ppg allowed) has been quite formidable the last half of the season. Granted, getting to feast on a steady diet of poor Patriot League offenses certainly helped to improve the defensive stats. The most disruptive force on “D” is talented freshman linebacker Jacob Dobbs (66 solo tackles, 11 TFL). Dobbs might be the most well-known name on defense but he’s not the only difference maker. All-Patriot League defensive end Benton Whitley (5 sacks) needs to get pressure on Bahar early and often. The secondary (232 ypg passing allowed) will have a tough time covering the Hawk’s explosive pass catchers so it’s imperative to get the ball out of Bahar’s hand quickly. Defensive Coordinator Scott James will need big games from his two versatile safeties, Corey Stefanik and Chris Riley. If the Crusader defensive front is unable to make Bahar uncomfortable and keep Guerriero in check it will be a long day at the Jersey Shore for those wearing purple.

Special Teams

Both teams feature strong special teams units. Holy Cross field goal kicker Derek Ng (11-16, long of 48) is capable of converting a key kick in a close game. Their punter Cody Wilkenson has proven to be a dangerous weapon (41 yard avg) in the battle for field position. Ayir Asante is the Crusader’s most dangerous kick returner and seems due for a momentum changing special teams play.

All-Big South field goal kicker Matt Mosquera (12-16, long of 47) has a done a good job tacking on points when the Hawk “O” failed to find the endzone. Punter Ryan Kost wasn’t called on often (24 punts) but when he was the sophomore delivered (41 yard avg). Lonnie Moore and Eddie Morales have done a solid job handling return duties. Like the Crusader’s Ayir Asante, Lonnie Moore is a big play waiting to happen.

Prediction

This is an intriguing battle between two teams, and conferences, desperately seeking respect on a national level. While the Big South does have two representatives competing this weekend, very few people are giving Monmouth and/or Kennesaw State a realistic chance of winning more than a game despite the two team’s 20-4 combined record. As for Holy Cross, the Crusaders are the only team of the seven that comprise the Patriot League to finish 2019 with a winning record. This is the third season in a row (’17 & ’18 Colgate) the Patriot League produced just a single team that finished above .500.

Holy Cross had a regular season worth celebrating but they are, at least on paper, the weakest team in the FCS playoff field by a wide margin. Monmouth is the more complete squad, riding a huge wave of momentum and they’re at home. If the Hawks protect the ball and prevent Cozier (keep him under 125 yards) from going off they’ll emerge with the program’s first postseason victory; perhaps rather easily.

Monmouth 41 Holy Cross 20

The FCS Wedge – 2019-1127 – Rd1 PREVIEW

1.) Games of the week previews for this wek are all of our playoff games.

Holy Cross @ Monmouth

Furman @ Austin Peay

CCSU @ Albany

Kennesaw State @ Wofford

Illinois State @ SEMO

San Diego @ Northern Iowa

North Dakota @ Nicholls State

Villanova @ Southeastern Louisiana

2.) Three Big Questions
Is only big question with some really big talk from both the fellers about how they will be doing in the AGS Playoff Pick Em’ Contest.

2019-1127 – Rd1 PREVIEW

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The FCS Wedge – 2019-1127- Wk13 REVIEW

1) The Big Story
Bracket release & there were some wild and wacky games this weekend also.

Montana State 48 Montana 14

Nicholls State 28 Southeastern Louisiana 27

Yale 50 Harvard 43 2OT

Albany 31 Stony Brook 26

A few crazy upsets:

Elon 25 Towson 23

South Dakota 24 SDSU 21

Youngstown State 21 Illinois State 3

2.) AGS Poll

2019-1127 – Wk13 REVIEW

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Big Sky Quad Shot: Week 13

The final week of the Big Sky regular season came to a close this past weekend. The weekend ended in absolute bananas fashion. In the end Weber State is your Big Sky automatic qualifier to the playoffs. Despite a loss to Montana in the previous week the Wildcats did what they needed to and won their final game. Sacramento State tied Weber State to share the Big Sky title, however, Weber State owned the head to head to decide the auto-bid. This is the first time that Sacramento State has won or shared the Big Sky football title.

As far as the playoffs go the Big Sky got four teams in, and all four of those teams received a seed. Weber State led the way by earning the #3 seed and host the winner of Wofford and Kennesaw State. Sacramento State will be the #4 seed and host the winner of Austin Peay and Furman. Montana State will be the #5 seed and host the winner of Albany and Central Connecticut State. Montana will be the #6 seed and host the winner of Southeast Louisiana and Villanova. The other seeds are North Dakota State at #1, James Madison at #2, South Dakota State at #7, and Central Arkansas at #8. The first round of the playoffs will begin this coming weekend.

In Big Sky action this weekend Montana and Montana State locked horns in the annual Cat/Griz game in Bozeman. The Bobcats got the game started by forcing an almost immediate turnover by the Griz and scored their first touchdown shortly after that. The Cats didn’t take their foot off the gas for four more quarters and dominated the #3 Grizzlies. The Bobcats won their fourth game in a row against the Griz.

North Dakota struggled early on against Southern Utah and eventually capitalized on the Thunderbirds and doubled them up on Saturday. The Fighting Hawks were selected to play in the playoffs as well. Cal Poly won the Big Sky pillow fight of the week by beating Northern Colorado in Greeley. Cal Poly came from behind to save themselves from being the worst team in the conference. After the game on Saturday the Bears informed Earnest Collins that he would not be retained. The Bears will begin their head coach search immediately.

Idaho won a shootout against Northern Arizona in Flagstaff. Mason Petrino threw for six touchdowns in the game. Previously during the season Petrino only had seven touchdowns for the entire season. For Northern Arizona the career of Case Cookus comes to a close. A terrific individual career mired with a team who strived for mediocrity. Cookus had 450 yards and three touchdowns on the day. Weber State took care of Idaho State. Eastern Washington did their part to make a case for the playoffs by beating on Portland State, despite a furious effort by the Vikings in the fourth quarter. The Vikings scored four of the last five touchdowns in the game. In the night cap, Sacramento State took care of UC Davis in the annual Causeway Classic to capture a share of the Big Sky Conference title.

Scores

Montana 14
Montana State 48

Southern Utah 18
North Dakota 36

Cal Poly 28
Northern Colorado 21

Idaho 60
Northern Arizona 53

Idaho State 10
Weber State 38

Portland State 46
Eastern Washington 53

UC Davis 17
Sacramento State 27

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky player of the week is Montana State running back Isaiah Ifanse. Ifanse rushed 21 times for 171 yards and three touchdowns as the Bobcats beat rival Montana this past weekend.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Dalton Sneed, QB, Montana
Kevin Thomson, QB, Sacramento State
Jeff Cotton, WR, Idaho
Ulonzo Gilliam, RB, UC Davis
Eric Barriere, QB, Eastern Washington

Big Sky Power Rankings

Weber State
Sacramento State
Montana State
Montana
Eastern Washington
UC Davis
Idaho
Portland State
Idaho State
Northern Arizona
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
Northern Colorado

The Quad Shot

The playoffs are here and it should seem almost unprecedented that four Big Sky teams got into the playoffs and all of them earned a seed. That’s absolutely crazy. Shows how tough the Big Sky was this season.. but still somehow ranked worse than the Missouri Valley according to Jeff Sagarin. That all being said, it was a dog fight until the final snap of the regular season. According to the Sagarin rankings the Griz finished at 95, Weber State at 96, Sacramento State at 97, and Montana State at 100. That’s tight.

Interesting that North Dakota got into the playoffs. I imagine they were probably the last team to get in. Finished 7-4, so they played one less game than the rest of the Big Sky. The NCAA selection committee uses a formula called the Simple Ratings System to help them decide who’s in and out of the playoffs. They have North Dakota at 23, and Eastern Washington at 15, but somehow it’s the Eagles that are staying home. Furman, Nicholls State, Illinois State and Kennesaw State are also at-large bids to the field and are 24, 25, 29, and 22 respectively. I imagine Eastern Washington probably has a beef with this result, and rightfully so, but when you’re deciding the 20-24 teams there’s always going to be deserving teams left out.

If I can rant for a moment.. I still don’t get the love for the Ivy League. This conference is impossible to measure because they simply don’t play anyone. They play eight conference games and three out of conference games. Their OOC schedule generally consists of non-power 5 FCS conference teams. The power five conferences, if you will, are the Big Sky, Colonial, Missouri Valley, Southland and Southern. Typically those conference get more than one or two teams in the playoffs. Of the eight Ivy League teams only three of them scheduled a game against a power 5 FCS conference. Brown played Rhode Island (a loss), Yale played Richmond (a win), and Pennsylvania played Delaware (a loss). The OOC record of the Ivy League this season was 119-163. Columbia had the toughest OOC, their opponents going 22-13, largely boosted by an 11 win Central Connecticut State. Of those games only one team went outside of the greater Northeast, Harvard played at San Diego. Until the Ivy League starts playing some tough opponents and going for more than a bus ride, we’ll never know how good any of these teams are.

With the playoff bracket being released I’m going to make my predictions. North Dakota State and Sacramento State will face off in one semifinal, while James Madison and Weber State will face off in the other semifinal. In Frisco we’ll see North Dakota State beating James Madison for the title. Again. So predictable.