MVFC Preview 2015.7

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MVFC Week 7 Preview

Chad Lenz & JT Nutt, MVFC  Contributors | October 15, 2015

JT Says-

Southern Illinois @ Indiana State
Indiana State was ranked in the top 25…briefly. But only managed one touchdown on 284 total yards of offense. Southern Illinois’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers got plenty of reps in a 73 – 26 win over Mo State and continues to trend upward. Indiana State allowed 428 yards to SDSU and that trend will continue with Southern Illinois. They will keep SIU under 400 yards on the ground but a 200 yard effort would be expected. SIU will not come near the 73 points but figure to probably get in the 30s or 40s. A 42-17 Saluki win seems likely in Terra Haute.

South Dakota State @ Youngstown State
A game that looked like a likely win for SDSU in the pre-season is now looking more like a Youngstown Win. Youngstown was a 2 point conversion away from beating Illinois State. SDSU never trailed Indiana State in a 24-7 last week, a week after failing to show up at home to NDSU. SDSU was without Zach Lujan who was the leading factor in their early success. Ankle injuries can be tricky and long lasting, they need him if they want to beat YSU. After putting up nearly 450 yards against a very good Ill State defense, Youngstown will have a similar look at SDSU’s defense. Youngstown takes the superior and healthy offense plus the homefield advantage and wins a close one to improve to 2-1 in the Valley as Bo Pelini continues to make Nebraska fans remember you don’t know what you got till it’s gone.

Western Illinois @ Northern Iowa
UNI has had back-to-back losses against Ill State and NDSU. The defense could use a bye week after being on the field for 80 plays in the Fargo Dome. Western had mild upset win over SIU 2 weeks ago and the expected win over South Dakota last week. The Leathernecks got 514 yards of offense last week, and they might get half of that this week. The UNI defense is vastly vastly superior to the South Dakota offense. The UNI offense could be without Sawyer Kollmorgen who left with a possible concussion in the 2nd half of the NDSU game. Aaron Bailey came in relief and looked good…on the ground. Kollmorgen could help the Panther air attack especially with the emergence of Daurice Fountain who had over 100 yards and a TD last week. UNI HAS to HAS to win this game or their season is done. Western Illinois has not beaten the Panthers since 2010. UNI is desperate, UNI has history on their side, UNI wins their first MVFC game 35-21.

Chad says-

Illinois State @ Missouri State
I’m not entirely sure what to say about this game without being extremely dismissive about it. Missouri State is, without question, the worst team in the conference right now. They may very well contend to be a bottom 10 team in the nation. The bears have given up, AT LEAST, 56 points in every D1 game this season, and more than 70 twice. Last week the Salukis scored more points, 73, than the Bears have scored all season in D1 games, 68. I tried to find the last time a team gave up 70 points in a conference game. The Valley website only goes back to 1998 and since that time it’s happened only once – 2007 conference co-champ and 3 seed in the playoff Southern Illinois beat Indiana State 72-10. That Indiana State team was during the time where they lost 33 straight games and 54 of 55 between 2005 and 2009. We may see Missouri State do it in consecutive weeks. I can only imagine what an offense as explosive as this Redbird offense can, and will do. I don’t think Roberson’s health matters. This is a name your score game for the Redbirds.

South Dakota @ North Dakota State
In the 4 games these two teams have played since USD joined the conference Bison have outscored the Coyotes 181-23, and 16 of those 23 points came in the first game. While I think the Bears have supplanted the Coyotes as the worst team in the conference, the gap between NDSU and USD is still quite large. There are also some teams that just don’t match up well, regardless of the talent level. I think this is another “name your score” game. The only way it isn’t is if NDSU has a physical hangover from the slugfest that was last week’s UNI game. When was the last time anyone remembers NDSU having a hangover of any kind? Yeah, that’s what I thought. Joe Glenn’s seat gets a touch warmer as, once again, his team is completely over matched by NDSU.

Western Illinois @ Northern Iowa
It’s week 7 and UNI finally gets a home game, well, a second home game. It’s the first home game in over a month and homecoming in Cedar Falls. This is a must win game for the Panthers, and I expect them to come out with vengeance after the way the last two games ended. The Leathernecks have a talented offense, but I don’t think they’ve seen a defense that attacks and is as fast this this Panthers defense. The big IF of this game is the same as every UNI game. IF Head Coach Mark Farley lets offensive coordinator Joe Davis run his offense I think UNI is able to win by a couple scores. If the Leatherneck defense can force some tension in the UNI offense early, and “forces” Mark Farley to intervene they have a chance as that intervention will throttle back the UNI tempo and playbook. Assuming a clean game by both sides I think UNI takes this one by 2 or 3 scores, though.