2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Presbyterian

*Preview courtesy of Libertine on AGS

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harold Nichols’ squad was a consistently tough out for nearly everyone on their schedule in 2015.  The Blue Hose were competitive in nearly every game and were within one score in each of their conference losses.  They were particularly sturdy on defense, holding playoff teams Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern and Chattanooga to well below their season scoring averages.  Unfortunately, tough outs are still outs and Presbyterian racked up nine of them.  

But, as I said, they were very competitive in their losses – particularly on defense – so the general takeaway from 2015 should be that they would be improved in 2016, right? Right?

Well, probably not.

Offseason attrition hit PC hard and I do mean hard.  Many of the 104 names listed on the Blue Hose’ 2015 football roster are missing from the 2016 list released earlier this summer.  Some guys exhausted their eligibility, some no doubt chose to graduate after their redshirt junior season and some simply walked away.  None of that is new to any college program but, all told, Presbyterian has to replace 42 players off of last year’s squad, approximately 40% of the team.  

The good news is that, well…. there is no good news to losing 40% of anything.  

Darrell Bridges
Darrell Bridges

The offense was often maligned last year for its ineffectiveness and rightly so.  PC’s offense only scored a total of 16 touchdowns on the season with RB Darrell Bridges accounting for half of those by himself.  Sadly, at least on paper, things don’t look much better for the Hose O in 2016.  Last year’s offensive line was nothing special and is now down three starters to graduation.  At running back, the aforementioned Darrell Bridges was and is a stud but he was playing hurt for much of the second half of the year. Blake Roberts, who was injured on the first play of the season, chose to graduate and complete his rehab as a civilian and Malik Risher, who proved ineffective, also chose to graduate.  The only other bright spot in the backfield, Quahlin Patterson, a true freshman back who showed a great deal of promise and the ability to give Bridges a much-needed breather has since chosen to transfer to Division II.  Last year’s leading receiver, by virtue of his 14 total catches, slot WR Marquel Hines was only a sophomore in 2015 but has disappeared from the roster without explanation.  DaShawn Davis looks like the primary candidate to replace that production but, at 5’9” and 160 pounds there’s a real question of whether or not Davis’ has the physical capacity to be a season-long contributor.

On the other hand, much like a shiny nickel sticking out of a cow pie, there may yet be a bright spot for the Presbyterian offense at the most important position on the field.  Over the course of the 2015 season, PC elected to play musical chairs with three different quarterbacks and rFr QB Ben Cheek was the last man sitting, getting the starting nod from Nichols for the last four games.  This season, the other two quarterbacks have graduated and Cheek returns as the unquestioned leader of the offense.  Will his live game experience last year and some consistency in the offense pay dividends in 2016?  It’s hard to say that they won’t but any improvement over last season would be significant.

DC Tommy Spangler

Presbyterian’s struggles on offense, fittingly, only served to highlight the successes of their highly- effective defense.  Under defensive coordinator Tommy Spangler (who was also the former head coach at PC when the current head coach was the quarterbacks coach but they both have had the same offensive coordinator; it’s an odd situation), the Blue Hose defense has been stocked with three-year starters and as evolved into a highly-aggressive and intelligent unit capable of putting points on the board themselves.  Unfortunately, graduation hit that side of the ball hard as well taking both starting defensive ends, two-thirds of the starting linebacker corps and three-fourths of the defensive backfield.   

Special teams fared no better.  Given the strength of the PC defense, punter Stephen Doar became arguably the team’s most effective single player and he filled the role admirably, punting a whopping 80 times for a 38-yard average with only three touchbacks while also serving as the holder for FG-PAT’s. But, he graduated too.    As did long snapper Rob Dennis.  K Brandon Morrow was a solid contributor as a freshman in 2014 but, a year later, fell into a sophomore slump and was replaced by the newest freshman kicker, Brett Norton.  Morrow is now gone from the roster as well.  

All told, of the 97 names listed on Presbyterian’s current football roster for 2016, seniors/r-seniors and juniors/r-juniors make up only 25 of them.  The Blue Hose are going to be extremely young through the ranks but, at least, their schedule-makers took note of that and scheduled some cupcakes accordingly, right?  Right?

No.  No, they did not. In fact,…

The schedule:

@ Central Michigan (9/1)

@ Chattanooga (9/10)

@ Campbell (9/17)

Florida Tech (9/24)

@ Gardner-Webb (10/8)

Monmouth (10/13)

@ Charleston Southern (10/22)

Coastal Carolina (10/29)

Liberty (11/5)

@ Kennesaw State (11/12)

@ Florida (11/19)

2016 Big Sky Preview: Portland State

2015 Record: 9-3 (6-2)

Key Returners: Davond Dade, Xavier Coleman, Jonathan Gonzales, Alex Kuresa

Key Losses: David Jones, Thomas Carter III, Patrick Onwuasor

Portland State found themselves at the top of the food chain very temporarily last season. They shocked the college football world when they opened the season in a very soggy Pullman, Washington and knocked off Mike Leach’s Washington State Cougars 24-17. Barneyball was officially trending right off the bat last season and didn’t show many signs of letting up. Barneyball referring to Vikings head coach Bruce Barnum, the now second year head coach in Portland. The Vikings finished the season at 9-3 and earned themselves a playoff berth for the first time since 2000. The Vikings playoff run was short lived as they were bounced at home by MVFC foe Northern Iowa. Portland State, now that they’ve had a taste of the playoffs, will be a little better prepared this time for the big time atmosphere of playoff football.

The Vikings finished the season at 31st in total offense, coming in with 419 yards per game. Their offense allowed them to take advantage of bad fields and control the football in tough situations. They made their living by winning a lot of close games last season. The Viking defense wasn’t too shabby either, finishing 62nd and giving up 384 yards per game. They were +20 in touchdowns. Portland State feasted on opposing teams by finishing fifth in the country in turnover margin, finishing +13. Good football teams are able to get takeaways and keep from handing the ball to the opposing team. The only real lopsided game they had last season was their final game vs UNI. The Vikings showed that playing good offense and playing pretty good defense can really help your team out in the win column.

The Vikings will return their starting quarterback, senior Alex Kuresa who was a threat in the passing and rushing game. Kuresa threw for 1975 yards and 17 touchdowns, while also rushing for 755 yards and seven scores. Pretty impressive for a guy in his first year as a starter. They’ll also return one of their leading rushers from last season, Nate Tago, who piled on another 421 yards and six scores for the Vikings. Their leading receiver, Darnell Jones, will also be back. He caught 478 yards and six scores last season. There is plenty of talent on this team to keep winning. Part of the reason Portland State was able to finish so well in the turnover margin was Vikings safety Patrick Onwuasor who picked off nine footballs last season. That’s just as good as an old fashioned highway robbery.

Portland State has a good chance to pile up some wins this season as they avoid most of the top teams in the Big Sky. Their only drawback is they will play two FBS games, at San Jose State and at Washington. You have to think that they have a chance to beat San Jose State. In the conference they will face Southern Utah on the road and Eastern Washington in Portland. Mixed in with them are teams picked to finish at the bottom of the rankings. Portland State will probably need to beat San Jose State to be taken seriously as a playoff team, but as we saw last year, beating an FBS team and having a good regular season record doesn’t guarantee playoff success. If there was a year that Portland State was going to outright win the Big Sky this is the year for them to do so. Whether they take a step back or not is left to be seen but there’s no reason this team can’t have success.

9/3    vs. Central Washington
9/10    at San Jose State
9/17    at Washington
9/24    at Southern Utah
10/1    vs. Idaho State
10/8    at Weber State
10/15    vs. Cal Poly
10/29    vs. Northern Colorado
11/5    at UC Davis
11/12    at Sacramento State
11/18    vs. Eastern Washington

2016 MVFC Preseason Preview: Western Illinois

2015 Record: 7-6 (5-3), 2nd Round Playoff loss

Key Returnees: QB Trenton Norvell, QB Sean McGuire, WR Lance Lenoir, WR Joey Borsellino, LB Brett Taylor, LB Adam Brott, DB David Griffith

Key Losses: RB Nikko Watson, DL Kris Harley, DL Eddy Holtschlag, DL Gavin Ricketts

 

Last season the Leathernecks became the first team in FCS history to receive an at-large berth into the playoffs with just 6 wins. Depending which side of the playoff bubble you fell on that was either the best, or worst thing to ever happen to the forums on AnyGivenSaturday.com. Think what you want about a 6 win team getting into the playoffs, the ‘Necks did technically finish 3rd in the MVFC a head of UNI and SDSU. The drawback to that bid though? It may have cost them their head coach, as Bob Neilson was poached by intraconference rival South Dakota…presumably to a higher salary. No time was wasted in finding a replacement though as Charlie Fisher was brought in from Richmond, where he had served as offensive coordinator for a highly successful Spider program.

The first decision Fisher must make is who to play at quarterback, as he has two capable options. If you read anything I said on AGS last year (on on The FCS Wedge radio show) I was a firm believer that WIU had the best QB/WR/RB combo in the MVFC with Norvell, Watson and then Borsellino and Lenior at wide receiver. Norvell is a three year starter in Macomb that has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 53 touchdowns in 33 games. With all of that why would there be a question about him starting going into this final season for the Leathernecks? Well, Norvell missed the final four games of the season due to an emergency appendectomy and in stepped redshirt freshman Sean McGuire. In those four games McGuire went 3-1, 85-158 for 1,159 yards with 6 touchdowns, though he had 6 picks as well. He was also was named MVFC Newcomer of the Week, STATS National Freshman of the Week, and to the MVFC All Newcomer team. That kind of production is impossible to ignore, and a new coach coming in has no preexisting feelings towards the long time starter and sees a guy with 3 years left to start and build his team around. No matter who starts Coach Fisher, it’s clear they are one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. Though, much like South Dakota State, I’d worry about trying to run a two quarterback system, should that be the path.

The Leathernecks will need to quickly find a replacement for the bowling ball that was Nikko Watson. In terms of play making ability, Watson probably wasn’t a top half running back in the conference last year. However, when it came time to get the tough yards and make a play there were few better than Nikko. I’m not entirely sure how Coach Fisher wants to utilize the running back position, but it looks thin from the outside. The leading returners are Steve McShane (65 carries 232 yards) and Devon Moore (68 carries 228 yards 4 TD). Give the talent at quarterback and receiver we may not need to see much, in terms of stats, from this position for the offense to succeed, but if I were a Leatherneck fan I’d be hesitant about getting the tough yards this coming season.

That brings us to what I consider the strongest position group in the entire conference – the Leatherneck wide receivers. Sure, individual receivers may be better than the guys on WIU’s roster but the 1-2 combo of Lance Lenoir and Joey Borsellino is tough to beat. I’d go as far as calling Borsellino the most under-valued receiver in the nation. Hell, I’d bet a good number of MVFC fans couldn’t tell you who he played for, what position he played, or even if he is a real player if asked about him only by name. Lenoir and Borsellino combined for 145 catches and over 2,000 yards. That’s not a bad 1-2 punch on the outside, folks. Add in Stacey Smith and J’Vaughn Williams, who combined for over 60 reception and 800 yards and you have guys who will exploit Lenoir or Borsellino getting double coverage.

The defense is what I question about this team. It’s why they finished just 6-5 in the regular season last year, despite having (what I consider) the best set of offensive weapons in the league. Coach Neilson has shown the ability to create dynamic offenses but lagged on developing defenses, something I think will be an issue for him at USD as they try to climb from the bottom of the conference. Last season WIU ranked in the bottom half of the conference in total defense (7th-399 yards per game), rush defense (7th- 196 yards per game), scoring defense (7th-29.7 points per game), sacks (9th-17), 1st down against (9th-22 per game), opponent 3rd down conversion (9th-42.1%), and opponent 4th down conversion (7th-57.9%). Coach Fisher is an offensive minded guy so I’m curious how he builds the defense. His defensive coordinator was brought in from Southern Illinois, who was a disaster on defense last season. There is individual talent on defense –  LB Brett Taylor, LB Adam Brott, and DB David Griffith are the most notable. WIU did finish with a MVFC high 19 picks and +8 TO margin last season. The pass defense as solid, as you’ll notice the lack of me pointing out the pass stats previously. What worries me is that most of the defensive line is gone from last year. So a defense that was poor against the run loses the foundation of stopping the run. In the MVFC that’s bound to be problematic.

One area I have to mention with WIU, that I haven’t mentioned elsewhere, is the special teams. I haven’t mentioned it with other teams as they are mostly unremarkable in that they don’t hinder the team so they go unnoticed. That’s a good thing. That’s not the case for WIU as they hit just 57% of their field goals, were last in PAT percentage, last in punt average (just 30 yards per punt), and 7th in kick off coverage. That needs to be fixed.

 

Prediction

9/1 @ Eastern Illinois – W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 Northern Arizona – W 2-0 (0-0)

9/24 @ Northern Illinois – L 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 @ South Dakota State – L 2-2 (0-1)

108/ Indiana State – W 3-2 (1-1)

10/15 @ Missouri State – W  4-2 (2-1)

10/22 North Dakota State – L 4-3 (2-2)

10/29 @ South Dakota – W 5-3 (3-2)

11/5 Illinois State – W 6-3 (4-2)

11/12 Northern Iowa – L 6-4 (4-3)

11/19 @ Southern Illinois – W 7-4 (5-3)

I could easily see WIU putting the committee in the position of looking at a 6 win team in the playoffs again. The ‘Necks get Illinois State, UNI and NDSU at home. That’s good for ticket sales and pulling off an upset or two. The thing with WIU, is because of the defense and special teams I see every game as 50/50. I could see 3 or 4 wins. I could see 8 or more wins. Coach Fisher walked into a talented team, but can he mold that individual talent into team talent?

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Southeast Missouri State

2015 Record: 4-7 (3-4 OVC)

Key Losses: WR Paul McRoberts (First Team All-OVC)

Key Returnees: RB Tremane McCullough (First Team All-OVC), LB Roper Garrett (Second Team All-OVC)

 

 

Believe or not, SEMO was close to being 8-3 team, being #2 in the OVC, and taking EIU’s spot in the playoffs last year. Four of the Redhawks’ losses were decided by 5 points or less and included a missed last second field goal to force overtime against UTM, a miraculous 4th down stop by Shorter on SEMO’s final drive to ice the game, a failed last second 2 point conversion against Indiana State, and running out of time in the middle of a massive 21 point rally in the last 20 minutes of regulation at EIU.

Why is last year important in a preview for 2016?  Because the Redhawks only lost 3 starters and a total of 7 players from their two-deep lineup. It’s basically the same team only now with more experience.  The Redhawks have a legitimate shot at making a lot of noise in the conference this year and getting to the playoffs.

Schedule and Predictions:  7-4 (5-3 OVC)

L    9/3 @ Memphis

W    9/10 @ Southern Illinois

W    9/17 vs. Indiana State

W    9/24 @ Murray State

W    10/1 vs. EIU

L    10/8 @ Eastern Kentucky

W    10/22 @ Tennessee Tech

W    10/29 vs. Austin Peay

L    11/5 vs. Jacksonville State

L    11/12 @ UT-Martin

W    11/19 vs. Tennessee State

I know exactly what you’re thinking, bear with me. They return almost all their players and they weren’t a bad crew last year. They have EIU and Indiana State at home. It’s really not that far of a stretch, they just need a little luck this time around and they can punch their golden ticket to the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

Week 0 Big South Preview

Submitted by Libertine

Charleston Southern @ North Dakota State  (Saturday, Aug. 27th – 7:30pm – ESPN)

 

 

 

               Well, college football is finally back as Charleston Southern travels to North Dakota State to kick off the first game in the country of the 2016 season.  Oddly enough, it will not be the first game to kick off outside the country as Hawai’i and Cal will line up against each other in Sydney, Australia the night before.  However, for the sake of discussion as it pertains to FCS, this is the primo inaugural catalytic event that football fans across the country have been waiting for.  Granted, the ESPN broadcast will more than likely quickly devolve into the commentators talking about Alabama or Baylor for three hours but the important thing is that we will be witnessing live meaningful football.  Indeed, our long national nightmare is over.

               Seeing as how I’m writing this from the Big South perspective, I’m not going to hash out NDSU here.  No offense intended toward the Bison but that’s something that’s already been done to death on AGS and, by now, everybody in the world of football knows about NDSU, they of the five straight national titles and the breeding ground of this year’s 2nd overall draft pick in the NFL.  Rather, I’m going to come at this from the viewpoint of a Big South watcher and a person who is roughly familiar with the Charleston Southern program.  There aren’t many of us, comparatively speaking, so I’ll try to provide the best insight I can.

               Importance — Is this the most important game in CSU football history?  That’s hard to say.  There have certainly been more meaningful games in terms of implications for the season and most of those have come recently.  Beating Coastal and Liberty in 2015 meant CSU’s first win over a top-ranked program as well as CSU’s first and only outright conference title, respectively.  Beating The Citadel in the playoffs marked CSU’s first postseason win and the first time they had beaten the same school twice in one season.  Still, none of those games were carried live on the ESPN flagship channel.  While it’s unlikely that a game played in August will have vital impact on the overall arc of the season, there have never been more eyes on the CSU program than there will be this Saturday.  How often does a tiny religiously-affiliated liberal arts university nestled in the back corner of North Charleston, South Carolina get a chance to put itself in front of millions on a national stage?   Still, it’s just one football game with a lot more to be played after it.  Yes, the game is of massive import to Charleston Southern University as a whole and to the relatively small number of people who call themselves Buc fans.  Can the CSU players and coaches put that pressure aside to just play the game?  We’ll find that out for certain on Saturday.

               CSU history – This game will mark a number of firsts for the CSU program.  This is obviously the first time that CSU will play on the ESPN flagship and will also be their first meeting with NDSU.  On top of that, this will be CSU’s first meeting with any team from the Missouri Valley Football Conference.  On top of that, this will be CSU’s first meeting with any FCS team hailing from west of the Mississippi River.  In fact, aside from two trips to Hawai’i, the only game “out west” that CSU has ever played was a 2013 visit to Colorado that came about because that year’s CU-Fresno State game was cancelled due to flooding.  In those three games, (granted they were all three FBS paycheck games) CSU was outscored 175-27.  This will also be CSU’s first game indoors since a 55-7 loss at ETSU back in the year 2000.  That said, CSU broke in a number of firsts for their program last season (first outright conference title, first top 10 ranking, first home playoff game, first playoff win, etc.,) and they’ll try to continue that trend going into 2016.

               What does CSU have to do to beat NDSU? – Pray.  No, seriously, pray.  The Bucs will need some genuine supernatural ‘Angels in the Outfield’-type machinations to win this and a heaping dose of dysentery sweeping through the NDSU locker room wouldn’t hurt either.  

On a less ethereal plane, CSU doesn’t match up well up front on either side of the ball.  However, CSU is used to this and has built their team accordingly.  Their defense is designed to rely on speed and aggression to the ball as opposed to any semblance of girth.   On the ground, the Bucs will try to minimize their size disadvantage by getting more hats to the football than the Bison can block.  You’ll see a lot of pre-snap movement from the CSU linebackers, shifting gaps in order to confuse the calls along the NDSU offensive line.  You’ll also see a lot stunting along the defensive line mixed in with a ton of blitzes.  I mean to say that CSU will blitz a lot.  The Luftwaffe didn’t blitz London in 1940 like the CSU defense is going to blitz this Saturday.  They’ll send guys from every conceivable angle and position, leaving whole areas of the field undefended and counting on the athleticism of their back four to cover what will, inevitably, be thrown over the heads of their front seven.  Against a young team – even one the size of NDSU’s – that would be a passable plan but it’s unlikely to faze a group as seasoned as the Bison.  On offense, CSU has to – as in, absolutely must – get big plays.  Jamey Chadwell’s leadership style is laden with motivational gimmicks that include everything from dressing up like Bear Bryant to having the word “CHIP” printed on the shoulders of last year’s CSU team t-shirts.  For good or bad, the Bucs team feeds on that attitudinal energy.  They play best when they’re playing well and nothing fuels that aggressively passive-aggression like big plays.  On the other hand, nothing starves them like getting bogged down offensively and falling behind.  For CSU to be effective on offense, they have to keep NDSU guessing and, when the Bison guess wrong, capitalize in a big way.  On special teams, CSU’s kicker has a medium-sized leg at best so their most potent weapon is Darius Hammond returning kickoffs.  Unfortunately, if you’re returning kickoffs, it usually means that the other team has just scored and you need to catch up.  Still, those kickoff returns can and have provided the big play energy I alluded to earlier.  

Best case scenario for CSU – The game turns into a shootout and the Bucs score last.  The ESPN cameras capture the CSU sideline having a lot of fun.

Worst case scenario for CSU – The Bison put a cloven hoof on the Bucs’ neck early and keep it there.  The ESPN cameras capture the CSU sideline in full PTSD mode.

My prediction:  NDSU by four scores

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Monmouth

*Preview courtesy of Libertine on AGS

 

 

 

 

 

Based on 2015, Monmouth should have been the dark horse pick to make some noise in the Big South this year.  Having swapped out virtually their entire offensive personnel and schemes, the Hawks got off to a slow start losing to Holy Cross, Central Michigan and Fordham, picked up an early win against NEC also-ran Bryant and then got destroyed 37-7 by eventual Big South champ, Charleston Southern.  But, the season turned on a dime for the Big South team from New Jersey when they ground out an OT win against a ranked Liberty squad and forced Coastal to beat them on a walk-off FG.  Two “character” wins to close out the year left Monmouth with a lot to build on for 2016.  In this case, Monmouth is building on it literally. At season’s end, the Monmouth administration made an announcement that Kessler Field would undergo a near-total renovation and expansion that will bring seating up to 4,200 seats.

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Lavon Chaney

On paper, anyway, Monmouth looks very promising on offense.  Despite losing three starters on the offensive line and massive athlete, TE Hakeem Valles, the Hawks bring back nearly all of their rushing and receiving yardage from last season, most notably in the form of RB Lavon Chaney.  On top of that, they bring back perhaps the most important piece in rSo quarterback Cody Williams.  Williams started out his first season as a college football player on an off note but, as the year went on and he started every game, he found his stride and ran the Monmouth with efficiency.

On defense, Monmouth took a big graduation hit at linebacker, losing two of their three starters.  However, both the secondary and defensive line not only remain largely intact from a year ago but will also get back all-conference performer DE Darnell Leslie back from the injury that cost him all of 2015.

However, all this optimism for the program could very well be the thing that undermines the promise of the 2016 season.  Due to the long sought-after (and completely necessary) construction on Monmouth’s home stadium, the Hawks will play a grand total of three home games in 2016.  Playing a normal slate of five or six away games is hard on both the bodies and the minds of players as well as coaches.  That’s as it should be since playing on the road is supposed to be hard.  Eight road games with almost no break in between, however, is less like a challenge to overcome and more of an ordeal to endure. Putting forth consistent effort and performing at a high level with a sense of purpose will take an extraordinary effort on the part of the team and head coach Kevin Callahan.

The schedule:

@ Lehigh (9/3)

@ Delaware State (9/10)

@ Kent State (9/17)

Charleston Southern (9/24)

Fordham (10/1)

@ Howard (10/8)

@ Presbyterian (10/13)  

@ Liberty (10/22) 

Kennesaw State (10/29)

@ Coastal Carolina (11/5)

@ Gardner-Webb (11/19)

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Lehigh

2015 Results: 6-5 (4-2)
Returning starters:
Offense 8
Defense 8

 

 

 

 

 

Lehigh had its worst season in 22 years in 2014 when they bottomed out at 3-8. They responded last year by getting back to a winning season and competing for the Patriot League title despite a historically bad defense. There’s reason to believe things are still trending up when you look at the amount of experience returning on both sides of the ball combined with having four full scholarship classes to build in depth.  Lehigh figures to once again challenge for the PL title and playoff spot on their offense alone. It’s no secret the defense will ultimately determine if they take the next step or are still chasing Colgate and Fordham.

By all accounts the offense should be among the best in FCS. There is talent and experience at every level. The offensive line returns two preseason first team all-league. There’s  a 3 year starter at quarterback,  a 1,000 yard rusher as a freshman, at RB and a preseason 1st team all-league WR with a potential NFL future. There is depth at every position including QB. Some really like Sophomore QB Mayes because he has a cannon for an arm. The unit averaged 32 points per game and 462 yards a game last season.  The game plan is to get guys in space. Lehigh has very good team speed at the skill positions. Yet, they haven’t as a group, to this point at least, produced a ton of big plays. Part of the reason is the lack of a down the field passing attack. It’s not a QB strength and the OC doesn’t really call deep routes. The other factor is protecting the defense but controlling T.O.P the best they can. If Shaf is able to get better with throwing the ball downfield the offense will be insanely difficult to defend. As it is, it’ll still take a top shelf unit to keep it contained. Villanova will be a great test given how well they’ve handled Fordham recently.

There really isn’t any adjective to describe just how bad the defense has been. Last year was the most points allowed EVER by a Lehigh defense, 388 (35 ppg).  Offenses averaged 452 yards against the Mountain Hawk defense. They gave up 50 points on 3 separate occasions (JMU, Princeton, Fordham). Allowed 49 to Colgate in a 49-42 loss which help decide the PL title.  The inability to create turnovers and create negative plays has been a huge problem.  Last year was Lehigh’s Defensive Coordinator’s second season back in the role. He was previously the DC at Lehigh in ’98 and ’99 (Lehigh won the PL both years and went a combined 22-3).  He instilled a 3-3-5 scheme before last year. The scheme this year will remain but with a lot more attacking principles. The one saving grace is there was an absolute lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball in 2013 and 2014. The defensive line was extremely undersized and had no depth. The linebackers were, at-best, adequate in size and lacked depth. Those two things have been addressed. This will easily be Lehigh’s most formidable defense in terms of measurables and depth since 2012. Outside of getting bigger they must force more turnovers (8 fumble recoveries and 5 INT’s all of 2015) and more negative plays. The forced turnover number has been sub-par for the last 3 years. Spring practice was built around installing a far more aggressive version of the 3-3-5. Its effectiveness and position reshuffling will determine how much the defense improves.

Schedule

9/3 Monmouth

9/10 @ Villanova

9/17 @ Penn

9/24 Princeton

10/1 @ Yale

10/8 Colgate

10/15 @Georgetown

10/22 @ Holy Cross

10/29 Fordham

11/5 Bucknell

11/19 @ Lafayette

AGS Patriot League Preseason prediction: 3rd place

2016 Big Sky Preview: Northern Arizona

2015 Record: 7-4 (5-3)

Key Returners: Case Cookus, Emmanual Butler

Key Departures: Casey Jahn, Dejzon Walker, RJ Rickert, Alex Holmes

The Lumberjacks are coming off of a pretty good season, finishing the year at 7-4 and just missing the FCS playoffs. A crushing season ending loss to conference champion Southern Utah ended their chance at a playoff spot. There’s a lot to look forward to if you’re Jerome Souers and the Lumberjacks. They’re returning the FCS freshman of the year as well as an FCS All-American. If that doesn’t pack people in the Walkup Skydome I don’t know what will. The media has picked the Lumberjacks to win the conference this coming season. Souers was able to keep his team from having their annual October letdown and keep them in the thick of the playoff race throughout the season. Souers will be looking to get the Lumberjacks into the playoffs for the first time since 2013 where they were defeated by South Dakota State.

The talk around Flagstaff is the reigning FCS freshman of the year, a quarterback named Case Cookus. He’s pretty good at the quarterbacking. As a freshman last season he threw for 3111 yards and 37 touchdowns against only five interceptions. His completion percentage was 68.9%, playing in all 11 games. He finished 11th in passing yards in FCS last season, and second in passing touchdowns. Those are impressive stats. Also returning is his favorite target from last season, FCS All-American Emmanuel Butler. Butler caught 1208 yards worth of passes and 15 touchdowns. He averaged 109 yards per game. With these two returning it seems like the NAU offense should be in good shape. However, the receiving corps behind Butler are a little thin after graduating three seniors. They will rely on guys who probably haven’t had as much playing time. Will this have an impact on Cookus? You might think he would go through a sophomore slump given that they will be breaking in inexperienced wide receivers. The rushing attack will see a mostly new face this season after senior Casey Jahn graduated. Jahn ran for over 1000 yards last season. Replacing him will likely be Corbin Jountti or Kendyl Taylor. Jountti rushed for six touchdowns last season.

The Lumberjacks finished 11th in total offense last season averaging 470 yards per game. The NAU passing attack finished at eighth in the country averaging 303 yards per game. Their rushing attack was nothing to scoff at either. However, I hate to keep beating this dead horse, the NAU defense was ranked 116th in the country last season. They were +3 in the touchdown ratio. The defense gave up 474 yards per game last season. Three times last season their defense gave up more than 40 points including 77 to Arizona. The Jacks have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball if they want to win this conference. The Jacks were -2 in the turnover margin, tied with Northern Colorado at 75th in the country.

This year’s schedule is a nice balance for the Jacks. They’ll open up the season on the road at Arizona State then head east for a game against Western Illinois. Their home schedule highlights include Eastern Washington, Montana, and Southern Utah at home. If they can manage to win those games they will win the conference. That seems like a really tall task for this team given that they will see some halfway decent defenses in Montana, Weber State and North Dakota. Their offense will need to be clicking in those contests for them to be wins. They can’t afford any stumbles though, the conference will be a log jam at the top, much like it was last season.

Sep 3, 2016    at Arizona State
Sep 10, 2016    at Western Illinois
Sep 17, 2016    New Mexico Highlands
Sep 24, 2016    Eastern Washington
Oct 1, 2016    at Northern Colorado
Oct 8, 2016    at Montana State
Oct 15, 2016    Idaho State
Oct 22, 2016    Montana
Nov 5, 2016    at Weber State
Nov 12, 2016    at North Dakota
Nov 19, 2016    Southern Utah

2016 Preseason Patriot League Preview: Lafayette

2015 Results: 1-10 (0-6)
Returning starters:
Offense 10
Defense 7

 

 

 

The 2016 Leopards are one of the prime examples of “Good news, everyone returns. The bad news is, every one returns.” After 16 seasons some fans may be feeling the second part of that statement about the coaching staff. Frank Tavani took over a program, at the turn of the century, that had been struggling for quite some time and looked to have “fixed” it. By year 3 he had them at 7 wins. Between 2004 and 2009 there was not a losing season and had three 8 win seasons. Then, the wheels fell off. Yes, there was a conference title in 2013, but Lafayette finished that regular season 5-6. There are “reasonable excuses” for dropping to 1-10 last season. As one AGS poster reminded me, the ‘pards suffered “A biblical scourge of injuries devastated Coach Tavani’s squad last year.”. Even with that, there needs to be improvement this year. However, as I said to open the article, the upside is we see many players back that got experience last season, due to the injuries, that likely would not have seen the field last year otherwise.

Senior quarterback, Drew Reed, returns for his senior season looking to finish his career on the high it started. As a freshman he lead Lafayette to the conference title. He lost his sophomore season to injuries and struggled to show much consistency last season.  To improve on the 1-10 mark from last season Reed must play better. The lone bright spot, as last season wore on, was running back DeSean Brown. Brown showed flashes of talent with 580 yards rushing yards, 877 all purpose yards, and 5 touchdowns last season. The rest of the offense has a year of game speed experience, which shoud help. The wide receiver group has talent, led by Joey Chenowith, who lead the team with 46 receptions for 389 yards and Matt Mrazek who finished second with 44 catches for 495 yards. The offensive line can go a long way in helping Reed regain his old form by keeping him upright. Last season he was planted 38 times, and ran for his life countless others.

I feel like a broken record with the Patriot League by saying “The offense has the talent if the defense can keep them close.” and Lafayette is no exception. Given what returns, Tavani should be able to field a solid tough defense. If nothing else he’s known for having fairly strong defenses, but that was far from the case last season as the Leopard defense gave up 35 points per game, including 49 at the hands of the archenemy, Lehigh, to close the season. We know that won’t sit well with anyone affiliated with that program. Brandon Bryant and Mike Root anchor the linebacker corps and the the secondary should be fairly solid with CB Parrish Simmons and Ss Draeland James and Kaizer Butler. The big key to make the defense better will be improving the pass rush. Last season the pass rush was non existent. Much like the key for the offense, the defensive line must get better on the line of scrimmage as last season they had just 9 sacks on the season.

 

Schedule

9/2 @ Central Connecticut State

9/10 – Delaware

9/17 – @ Princeton

9-24 – Villanova

10/1 – Holy Cross

10/8 – Fordham

10/15 @ Army (FBS)

10/22 @ Bucknell

10/29 Georgetown

11/12 –  @ Colgate

11/19 – Lehigh

 

2016 Preseason AGS Poll Prediction: 6th place

2016 Big Sky Preview: Northern Colorado

2015 Record: 6-5 (3-5)

Key Returners: Hakeem Deggs, Trae Riek, Jacob Knipp

Key Losses: Trevor Douglass, Jonathan Newsom, Sean Leslie

Northern Colorado saw some success last year, more so than they’ve had over the last few years. Was it a sign of the program turning around, or was it the chips falling into place at the right time? The Bears finished last season at 6-5 overall last season, one of their better seasons since joining the Big Sky conference. It could be argued that their schedule set them up for success, but perhaps they made some improvement at the same time? Earnest Collins is making strides with the Bears, but will the fan base give him patience? His record since taking over the Bears sits at 15-41. If it weren’t for his new 5 yr. contract I would say he needs to turn in another winning season if he doesn’t want to find himself looking for a job after the season is over. The Bears had one player make the preseason All-Big Sky team, however, he is a special teams player. Players from other disciplines will need to step it up for the Bears to continue their upward trend.

The Bears had a fairly strong offensive showing last season, finishing with the 57th best offense in the country last year, in terms of yards gained per game. They finished with 384 yards per game and 45 offensive touchdowns. Like most Big Sky teams the Bear defense was a dumpster fire. Finishing at 121st defensively that is good enough for third worst in the country and dead last in the Big Sky. The Bears gave up 497 yards per game and found themselves -7 in the touchdowns category. The Bears finished -2 in the turnover margin, good enough for 75th. How the Bears finished with a winning record was nothing short of amazing, but considering their schedule last year you have to think that playing a bit better defense would have gotten them into the playoff hunt.

Northern Colorado is returning their quarterback from last season, Jacob Knipp. He played in 10 games last season and threw for nearly 2000 years and 13 touchdowns. They also return their top rusher from last season, sophomore Trae Riek. Riek finished with 817 yards and seven touchdowns. He also had 349 yards receiving and two touchdowns. They also return their second leading rusher, Brandon Cartagena, who finished with 270 yards and three scores. Leading receiver, Stephen Miller also returns, who finished with 448 yards and five scores. The Bears have plenty of veteran players returning on offense, can they improve the defense enough to keep them in football games? As mentioned above, the a single UNC player found himself on the preseason watch list. Hakeem Deggs was named to the list after averaging 35.4 yards per kick return last season. Deggs should carve out some space at wide receiver this season.

The Bears schedule this season isn’t as forgiving as it was last year. They’ll face fellow Front Range school Colorado State, and also go through the buzz saw of Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, and Montana, plus a home date with North Dakota. All of those teams are picked to finish at the top of the conference. The Bears will need a few miracles if they want to come close to replicating the results of last season. There’s nothing certain on this schedule for Northern Colorado given their history in the Big Sky. There’s a very real possibility that they will only finish with a couple of wins. Will that mean the end of the road for Earnest Collins? It’ll be a question worth asking at the end of the season. The Bears will probably need five wins to keep in as the captain of the ship.

9/3    vs. Rocky Mountain
9/10    at Abilene Christian
9/17    at Colorado State
10/1    vs. Northern Arizona
10/8    at Eastern Washington
10/15    at UC Davis
10/22    vs. Sacramento State
10/29    at Portland State
11/5    vs. North Dakota
11/12    vs. Montana
11/19    at Cal Poly