2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Tennessee-Martin

2015 Record: 7-4 (6-2 OVC)

Key Losses: QB Jarod Neal (Second Team All-OVC), WR Rod Wright (Second Team All-OVC)

Key Returnees: OT Jackson Roberts (Second Team All-OVC), DL Damani Taylor (Second Team All-OVC),

 

 

 

In 2015, UTM’s strength was NOT their defense.  It was their passing game.  Jarod Neal captained an offense that averaged 294 passing yards per game, ranking 11th in the FCS. Jarod Neal ranked 9th in the FCS in passing yards last year with 3117. Unfortunately for UTM Jarod Neal is gone.  Rod Wright, UTM’s 2015 leading receiver, is gone. And Trent Garland, UTM’s 2015 rushing leader, is gone.  I’m sure you’re catching on.

That being said, UTM’s spring practices looked promising.  Quarterbacks Troy Cook and Gunner Holcombe both looked like promising replacements for Jarod Neal.  Whoever wins the quarterback battle at UTM will really benefit from having Caylon Weathers as a target as the 6 foot 4 receiver has really stepped his game up in practices this off season. Runningback Jaimiee Bowie also had a productive spring practice. The defense will need some players to step up as the Skyhawks will lose 4 starters on that side of the ball.

 

Schedule and Predictions: 5-6 (5-3 OVC)

L    9/1 @ Cincinnati

L    9/10 @ Hawaii

W    9/24 vs. Tennessee Tech

W    10/1 @ Tennessee State

W    10/8 vs. Austin Peay

L    10/15 @ Murray State

L    10/22 @ Georgia State

W    10/29 vs. Eastern Kentucky

L    11/5 @ Eastern Illinois

W    11/12 vs. Southeast Missouri State

L    11/19 @ Jacksonville State

UTM once again made the mistake of selling themselves out to too many FBS schools and this year they will pay for it with their first losing season since 2011.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them beat Murray State but I’ll pick KD Humphries to pull the upset at home for now.

2016 Big Sky Preview: Southern Utah

2015 Record: 8-4 (7-1)

Key Returners: Kyle Hannemann, Mike Sharp, Keita Calhoun, Ty Rutledge, Steven Wroblewski

Key Losses: Ammon Olson, Malik Brown, Justin Brown, James Cowser, LeShaun Sims, Miles Killebrew

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds made some personal history last season by winning their first Big Sky Conference title. The reward for winning the conference? A road trip to Sam Houston State in the first round of the FCS playoffs. The Thunderbirds, unfortunately, did not win that contest. Their season started off fairly promising, losing a 12-9 contest with Utah State and kept rolling from there after a somewhat large setback against South Dakota State. The big question for the T-Birds this season is can they repeat as Big Sky champions? They have a lot of work to do, especially after losing their head coach to BYU and their senior quarterback, Ammon Olson, left for graduation. They also lost two very talented players to the NFL, James Cowser and Miles Killebrew. New head coach Demario Warren will have his hands full this season, but given his experience at SUU he should be able to transition easily.

The Thunderbirds were quite good on offense last season, finishing 20th in the country, fifth in the Big Sky Conference. They averaged 445 yards of offense per game last season. The Thunderbirds finished 14th in the country in passing offense, averaging 279 yards per game. Compared to most of the rest of the Big Sky they were also quite good on defense, finishing 67th, giving up 390 yards per game. The Thunderbirds finished +20 in the touchdown category, a good indicator that they were a pretty good football team last season. In just as mind boggling of a statistic the Thunderbirds finished +20 in the turnover margin last season, that was good enough for first in the country. They will need to replicate that kind of output if they want any shot at repeating as Big Sky champions this coming season. Doing so with a somewhat depleted defense will be a challenge but their head coach seems to know a couple of things about coaching a good defense.

The T-Birds will return defensive lineman Chance Bearnson who recorded 13 tackles for loss last season and three and a half sacks. He had 46 total tackles, 21 of them solo. Linebacker Mike Needham will be a junior this coming season. Last season he had 94 tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss. He also had three interceptions, one of them returned for a touchdown, as well as two fumble returns for touchdowns. He was the 2015 Linebackers of the Year, as named by College Football Performance Awards.

The Thunderbirds will be searching for a new gunslinger this season as the aforementioned Ammon Olsen took his talents to adulthood. The T-birds have a few options, one quarterback who got some playing time last season is junior Tannon Pedersen who threw for a whopping six yards last season. They also have transfer quarterback Patrick Tyler, who will be a junior this season. The Thunderbirds will also be tasked with replacing top rusher from last season, Malik Brown, who piled up 829 yards and eight touchdowns. The most likely candidate will be Jarom Healey, a senior from Hurricane, Utah. To ease their new quarterback’s transition they will be returning two talented pass catchers, Steven Wroblewski and Mike Sharp. The Thunderbirds placed more players on the Big Sky preseason team than any other team in the conference.

The Thunderbirds schedule this season isn’t going to be an easy one. They’ll play all three of their in-state rivals, Utah, BYU, and Weber State. They will also host Southeast Louisiana and Portland State. They will travel to Montana and Northern Arizona. This is a tough schedule for a first year head coach and a team that’s replacing a lot of pieces. Finishing at .500 this season would probably be a victory for the Thunderbirds, but they have their work cut out for them. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them take a step back this season. With this schedule they have plenty of work to do.

Thu, Sep 01      University of Utah
Sat, Sep 10      Southeast Louisiana
Sat, Sep 24      Portland State
Sat, Oct 01      Montana
Sat, Oct 08      UC Davis
Sat, Oct 15      North Dakota
Sat, Oct 22      Weber State
Sat, Oct 29      Idaho State
Sat, Nov 05      Montana State
Sat, Nov 12      Brigham Young University
Sat, Nov 19      Northern Arizona

The FCS Wedge 01/09/2016

We are in the process of adding a new podcast player to the site.  As such, here is a post to test our new capabilities.  This is last years National Championship preview show.

-From 01/09/2016

Great interviews this week featuring an all NC show.  We have Coach Grass(JSU)  and Coach Klieman (NDSU) and then get to talk with a couple of our favorite radio guys again.  Scott Miller (NDSU), and Mike Parris (JSU) both give some great perspectives on the National Championship Game.

This is our last show of the season and would like to thank anyone that has tagged along for the ride this year.  Hope you see you back next season!

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

2016 MVFC Preseason Preview: Youngstown State

2015 Results: 5-6 (3-5)

Key Returnees: RB Jody Webb, RB Martin Ruiz, QB Hunter Wells, LB Lee Wright, SS Jameel Smith, DE Derek Rivers

Key Losses: WR Andrew Stubbs, WR Andrew Williams, DE Terrell Williams, DT Steve Zaborksy, DT Emmanuel Kormah

 

 

Full disclosure, right from the start of this,  YSU has been off of UNI’s schedule the last two years so I haven’t followed the roster all that close. The Penguins truly fell into a “out of site, out of mind” situation with me to a large extent. Yes, I’ve done the FCS Wedge on the radio for the last couple seasons, and along with following conference I tracked their results, but never took a deep roster dive like I have with the other programs. Thus, this gives me a first look at the 2016 Penguins, much like most of you.

The biggest thing I’ve noticed from what I’ve followed the last few years is that YSU is still going to YSU. What does that mean? Well, simply put – load up on NEC/PFL and look real good early in the season, only to fall flat on their face late in the year. Last year YSU started 3-1, beating 2 NEC programs and a bottom of the conference USD team, then lost 5 of their last 7 and both of their final two games, which including Bo Pelini going Bo Pelini. Leading into this season I’ve seen far more YSU fans questioning his coaching, and changing their opinion on his antics, than I thought I would see.

A few years ago I really though the QB position would be a source of strength in 2016. Hunter Wells bust onto the scene as a freshman and I thought there was no way he wouldn’t be near the top of the league QB by this time. Well, while he isn’t the main issue on offense he certainly didn’t take the step forward most thought he would last season. His completion percentage dropped 6 points, yards per attempt dropped 2 years, and he saw his TD:INT draw closer to 1:1 than it was as a freshman. This isn’t to say he’s bottom of the league by any means, but I’d say it’s fair to think that if he starts slow we might see Pelini change it up. The problem is, who else does he bring in? The other quarterbacks on the roster are a JUCO transfer that played 5 games last season, a kid that redshirted, and another that threw 18 total passes last season. A late injury to Wells may have Davis starting week 1, which could really throw a wrench into the disdain for the lack of production if Davis has a slow start to the season.

Not helping Wells’s case for the year is the receiver situation. More specifically, the lack of any known quantity at the position.  Outside of Missouri State, the Penguins return the least in terms of stats, and it’s real close. Right now, it’s not a good thing to be considered “real close” to Missouri State in any way. Throwing a quarterback out, especially one like Ricky Davis (who is 8-19 passing in his career) isn’t going to change the offense when the leading returning receiver, I’Tavious Harvin, had 22 catches for 279 yards last season. There was only two other players with more than 10 catches, and both of them were running backs – Martin Ruiz (21) and Jody Webb (17). After that there isn’t another receiver with over 100 yards returning. I see YSU fans wanting to blame the offensive coordinator, blame Wells for not developing, etc…, and to an extent there looks to be some truth there. I think we need to look at who he has around him to throw the ball too, especially this year, when we are calling for the back up, whoever they may be, by half time of week 1.

The strength of the YSU offense is the ground game. As an outsider that hasn’t had to face Jody Webb and Martin Ruiz the last two years, it’s been fun seeing what they can do. While their individual stats aren’t on the level of a Tyvis Smith, King Fraizer, Marshawn Coprich, etc… they compbined for over 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, so if a defense happens to catch one on a bad day it doesn’t mean they get to relax on the ground game. It means they better buckle up because you’re about to see the other one try to bring the pain. Webb is the far more explosive of the two. Last season he averaged 7.02 yards per carry on his 122 carries with 9 scores. Ruiz finished with more carries, 188, but didn’t have the same explosiveness as he was at 4.0 yards per carry. That kind of two headed monster in the back field is tough to prepare for though, even if only one appears to be the home run threat as Ruiz will pound the ball all game to tired the defense out and allow Webb to take advantage of it.

Defensively is where YSU has shined, and honestly kept them in games or flat out gotten them the win. Statistically YSU had the best pass defense in the league last season – remember NDSU, SDSU, ISUr and UNI all are conference mates. I’m not sure if teams stopped throwing at YSU because they couldn’t, or something else because YSU faced just 202 pass attempts last season – 95 LESS than the next closest team. I would guess part of that is because teams completed just 41.1% of their passes against the Penguin secondary. Bad news for the rest of the MVFC, that secondary is back, led by LeRoy Alexander who was first time all conference last season. Helping that secondary was the front seven. Lee Wright had 78 tackles with 6 sacks, Derek Rivers had 9 sacks, Dellovade had 4. Yes, DE Terrell Williams, DT Steve Zaborksy and DT Emmanuel Kormah are gone and at the vast majority of programs across the nation it’s not just a “plug the next man in”. I’m not sure it’s that way at YSU either, but the guys behind those three all got plenty of game action last season and are no stranger to game speed. Reports out of fall camp were promising on this side of the ball. The big question sounds like will they be able to maintain the same level of play they had last year all year this year again. If not, it could be a long season for Pelini and crew.

Predictions:

9/1 Duquense – W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 @ West Virginia – L 1-1 (0-0)

9/17 Robert Morris – W 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 South Dakota – W 3-1 (1-0)

10/8 @ Illinois State – W 4-1 (2-0)

10/15 Northern Iowa – L 4-2 (2-1)

10/22 @ South Dakota State – L 4-3 (2-2)

10/29 Indiana State – W 5-3 (3-2)

11/5 @ North Dakota State – L 5-4 (3-3)

11/12 Southern Illinois – W 6-4 (4-3)

11/19 Missouri State – W 7-4 (5-3)

Yes, I think YSU actually does the anit-YSU thing and finishes strong this year, though more so due to the schedule lay out. Closing with two teams I see at the bottom of the conference helps, though the SIU game gets dicey for me. I think the NDSU game is a good shot at an upset. It’s the week after NDSU plays UNI, and both UNI and NDSU tend to struggle a bit the week after that game (it’s where USD picked NDSU off last season). IF YSU figures out how to play offense by then  I could see that being a win. On the flip side I could see SIU going the other way. SIU’s defense isn’t good, but neither is YSU’s offense. To beat SIU you have to out dual them, I don’t know that YSU has that type of offense. I have them at 7-4 and right on the playoff bubble. I think 6-5 is quite likely and am willing to listen for an argument at 8 wins. If YSU finishes at 5 or worse I think it’s time to call the Pelini experiment and move on to a better, more permanent coach.

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Eastern Kentucky

2015 Record: 6-5 (5-3 OVC)

Key Losses: DE Noah Spence (First Team All-American), TE Ben Madon (First Team All-OVC)

Key Returnees: QB Bennie Coney

Well… Last season didn’t end they way the Colonels wanted.  Many forget that Jacksonville State wasn’t the only FCS team that put fear into an SEC team last year.  The Colonels took Kentucky to overtime last year as well only to lose in the same heartbreaking fashion, only the Colonels didn’t end the season with a trip to the playoffs.  They blew a #13 STATS ranking losing four of their last five game to end unranked and earned a spot on the couch in Richmond to watch the playoffs.

Next season could either be fantastic or a disaster for the Colonels. The Colonels lose 12 starters and lose depth with the loss of 6 second stringers.  To make matters worse, all their losses are big losses.  They lost their only All-American, Noah Spence, to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lost the rest of their offensive and defensive All-OVC players (they retain two special teamers) to graduation. However, new head coach Mark Elder has recruited very well and has a lot of talent returning on the offensive side of the ball that will help him in his transition.  It will be a “next man up” mentality in Richmond this year, especially on defense, but if they can rise to the occasion the Colonels can be great this season.
Schedule and Predictions:  7-4 (6-2 OVC)

L    9/3 @ Purdue

W    9/10 vs. Pikeville

L    9/17 @ Ball State

W    10/1 @ Tennessee Tech

W    10/8 vs. Southeast Missouri State

W    10/15 @ Tennessee State

L    10/22 vs. Jacksonville State

L    10/29 @ UT- Martin

W    11/5 vs. Murray State

W    11/12 @ Austin Peay

W    11/19 vs. Eastern Illinois

With two of the Colonels losses coming from an expected place with two FBS teams, if EKU breaks the 7 win mark expect them to be in talks for an at large bid for the playoffs.  The matchups with Southeast Missouri State and Eastern Illinois will be big ones to win if the Colonels want a shot at the playoffs.  The winner of the EKU games between EIU and SEMO will likely be the one (or ones) that get playoffs bids so the Colonels will need to win.

2016 Big Sky Preview: Sacramento State

2015 Record: 2-9 (1-7)

Key Returners: Jordan Robinson, Nate Ketteringham, Isiah Hennie, Manoah Pearson

Key Losses: Shane Harrison, Brad Cornish

Last year is probably a year the Hornets would like to forget, finishing the season at 2-9, with one of their wins coming against a Division II team. Many of the Hornets losses weren’t even close contests. Needless to say, this was a disappointing season for second year coach Jody Sears. The Hornets went from 7-5 in 2014 to two wins in the following season. What went wrong? For starters the Hornets were breaking in a new quarterback after Garrett Safron graduated. They also had to replace star receiver DeAndre Carter. Needless to say, there were some growing pains in Sacramento. Jody Sears is entering his third season at Sacramento State, so we can’t say that he’s on the hot seat this season, but the Hornets will need to improve upon their two wins from last season to keep the rumblings low. The Hornets appear to be a fairly young team and will be far more experienced this year.

The Hornets weren’t completely inept on offense last season, despite finishing near the bottom of the Big Sky standings. They had the 71st best offense in the country, finishing with 360 yards per game. They cycled through three different quarterbacks last season at various points in the season. The Hornets on defense, however, were not as good. The Hornets finished 108th in total offense, giving up 453 yards per game. You would have to think that the Hornets can improve on that second number this coming season. If they can, the Hornets schedule this season is a nice balance tough and winnable games. The Hornets finished -21 in the touchdown category. The Hornets finished at even in the turnover margin, a good sign for a young football team.

The Hornets will be returning a lot of youth this coming season. They will have two young quarterbacks returning, Nate Ketteringham and Daniel Kniffin. They will also be returning Jordan Robinson, the top rusher from last season who had 808 yards on the ground with four touchdowns. They will lose their top two receivers from last season to graduation. They have a pair of receivers, Isiah Hennie and Jaelin Ratliff who still have a few years left in their eligibility that should contribute for the Hornets this coming season. They also return young linebacker Manoah Pearson who finished with 77 tackles last season and two sacks. He will anchor the defense just as a sophomore.

As mentioned above, the Hornets schedule this season is a mixture of tough teams with games that they could and maybe should win. Their biggest test will be at Fresno State, plus contests against North Dakota, Montana, and Portland State. Those won’t be easy games, but two of them are at home which should provide them a small boost. The Hornets will mix that with Weber State, Idaho State, Northern Colorado, and UC-Davis. With this kind of mixture you have to think the Hornets can improve on that and win some football games. With any luck they can make a run towards .500 for the season. There’s plenty of youth on this team to be hopeful, but it may not happen for the Hornets this season.

Sat. 3     Western Oregon
Sat. 10   at Fresno State
Sat. 17   at Weber State
Sat. 24  at Idaho State
Sat. 1     Montana State
Sat. 8     North Dakota
Sat. 15   at Montana
Sat. 22   at Northern Colorado
Sat. 29   Cal Poly
Sat. 12   Portland State
Sat. 19   at UC Davis

2016 Preseason Big South Preview: Presbyterian

*Preview courtesy of Libertine on AGS

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harold Nichols’ squad was a consistently tough out for nearly everyone on their schedule in 2015.  The Blue Hose were competitive in nearly every game and were within one score in each of their conference losses.  They were particularly sturdy on defense, holding playoff teams Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern and Chattanooga to well below their season scoring averages.  Unfortunately, tough outs are still outs and Presbyterian racked up nine of them.  

But, as I said, they were very competitive in their losses – particularly on defense – so the general takeaway from 2015 should be that they would be improved in 2016, right? Right?

Well, probably not.

Offseason attrition hit PC hard and I do mean hard.  Many of the 104 names listed on the Blue Hose’ 2015 football roster are missing from the 2016 list released earlier this summer.  Some guys exhausted their eligibility, some no doubt chose to graduate after their redshirt junior season and some simply walked away.  None of that is new to any college program but, all told, Presbyterian has to replace 42 players off of last year’s squad, approximately 40% of the team.  

The good news is that, well…. there is no good news to losing 40% of anything.  

Darrell Bridges
Darrell Bridges

The offense was often maligned last year for its ineffectiveness and rightly so.  PC’s offense only scored a total of 16 touchdowns on the season with RB Darrell Bridges accounting for half of those by himself.  Sadly, at least on paper, things don’t look much better for the Hose O in 2016.  Last year’s offensive line was nothing special and is now down three starters to graduation.  At running back, the aforementioned Darrell Bridges was and is a stud but he was playing hurt for much of the second half of the year. Blake Roberts, who was injured on the first play of the season, chose to graduate and complete his rehab as a civilian and Malik Risher, who proved ineffective, also chose to graduate.  The only other bright spot in the backfield, Quahlin Patterson, a true freshman back who showed a great deal of promise and the ability to give Bridges a much-needed breather has since chosen to transfer to Division II.  Last year’s leading receiver, by virtue of his 14 total catches, slot WR Marquel Hines was only a sophomore in 2015 but has disappeared from the roster without explanation.  DaShawn Davis looks like the primary candidate to replace that production but, at 5’9” and 160 pounds there’s a real question of whether or not Davis’ has the physical capacity to be a season-long contributor.

On the other hand, much like a shiny nickel sticking out of a cow pie, there may yet be a bright spot for the Presbyterian offense at the most important position on the field.  Over the course of the 2015 season, PC elected to play musical chairs with three different quarterbacks and rFr QB Ben Cheek was the last man sitting, getting the starting nod from Nichols for the last four games.  This season, the other two quarterbacks have graduated and Cheek returns as the unquestioned leader of the offense.  Will his live game experience last year and some consistency in the offense pay dividends in 2016?  It’s hard to say that they won’t but any improvement over last season would be significant.

DC Tommy Spangler

Presbyterian’s struggles on offense, fittingly, only served to highlight the successes of their highly- effective defense.  Under defensive coordinator Tommy Spangler (who was also the former head coach at PC when the current head coach was the quarterbacks coach but they both have had the same offensive coordinator; it’s an odd situation), the Blue Hose defense has been stocked with three-year starters and as evolved into a highly-aggressive and intelligent unit capable of putting points on the board themselves.  Unfortunately, graduation hit that side of the ball hard as well taking both starting defensive ends, two-thirds of the starting linebacker corps and three-fourths of the defensive backfield.   

Special teams fared no better.  Given the strength of the PC defense, punter Stephen Doar became arguably the team’s most effective single player and he filled the role admirably, punting a whopping 80 times for a 38-yard average with only three touchbacks while also serving as the holder for FG-PAT’s. But, he graduated too.    As did long snapper Rob Dennis.  K Brandon Morrow was a solid contributor as a freshman in 2014 but, a year later, fell into a sophomore slump and was replaced by the newest freshman kicker, Brett Norton.  Morrow is now gone from the roster as well.  

All told, of the 97 names listed on Presbyterian’s current football roster for 2016, seniors/r-seniors and juniors/r-juniors make up only 25 of them.  The Blue Hose are going to be extremely young through the ranks but, at least, their schedule-makers took note of that and scheduled some cupcakes accordingly, right?  Right?

No.  No, they did not. In fact,…

The schedule:

@ Central Michigan (9/1)

@ Chattanooga (9/10)

@ Campbell (9/17)

Florida Tech (9/24)

@ Gardner-Webb (10/8)

Monmouth (10/13)

@ Charleston Southern (10/22)

Coastal Carolina (10/29)

Liberty (11/5)

@ Kennesaw State (11/12)

@ Florida (11/19)

2016 Big Sky Preview: Portland State

2015 Record: 9-3 (6-2)

Key Returners: Davond Dade, Xavier Coleman, Jonathan Gonzales, Alex Kuresa

Key Losses: David Jones, Thomas Carter III, Patrick Onwuasor

Portland State found themselves at the top of the food chain very temporarily last season. They shocked the college football world when they opened the season in a very soggy Pullman, Washington and knocked off Mike Leach’s Washington State Cougars 24-17. Barneyball was officially trending right off the bat last season and didn’t show many signs of letting up. Barneyball referring to Vikings head coach Bruce Barnum, the now second year head coach in Portland. The Vikings finished the season at 9-3 and earned themselves a playoff berth for the first time since 2000. The Vikings playoff run was short lived as they were bounced at home by MVFC foe Northern Iowa. Portland State, now that they’ve had a taste of the playoffs, will be a little better prepared this time for the big time atmosphere of playoff football.

The Vikings finished the season at 31st in total offense, coming in with 419 yards per game. Their offense allowed them to take advantage of bad fields and control the football in tough situations. They made their living by winning a lot of close games last season. The Viking defense wasn’t too shabby either, finishing 62nd and giving up 384 yards per game. They were +20 in touchdowns. Portland State feasted on opposing teams by finishing fifth in the country in turnover margin, finishing +13. Good football teams are able to get takeaways and keep from handing the ball to the opposing team. The only real lopsided game they had last season was their final game vs UNI. The Vikings showed that playing good offense and playing pretty good defense can really help your team out in the win column.

The Vikings will return their starting quarterback, senior Alex Kuresa who was a threat in the passing and rushing game. Kuresa threw for 1975 yards and 17 touchdowns, while also rushing for 755 yards and seven scores. Pretty impressive for a guy in his first year as a starter. They’ll also return one of their leading rushers from last season, Nate Tago, who piled on another 421 yards and six scores for the Vikings. Their leading receiver, Darnell Jones, will also be back. He caught 478 yards and six scores last season. There is plenty of talent on this team to keep winning. Part of the reason Portland State was able to finish so well in the turnover margin was Vikings safety Patrick Onwuasor who picked off nine footballs last season. That’s just as good as an old fashioned highway robbery.

Portland State has a good chance to pile up some wins this season as they avoid most of the top teams in the Big Sky. Their only drawback is they will play two FBS games, at San Jose State and at Washington. You have to think that they have a chance to beat San Jose State. In the conference they will face Southern Utah on the road and Eastern Washington in Portland. Mixed in with them are teams picked to finish at the bottom of the rankings. Portland State will probably need to beat San Jose State to be taken seriously as a playoff team, but as we saw last year, beating an FBS team and having a good regular season record doesn’t guarantee playoff success. If there was a year that Portland State was going to outright win the Big Sky this is the year for them to do so. Whether they take a step back or not is left to be seen but there’s no reason this team can’t have success.

9/3    vs. Central Washington
9/10    at San Jose State
9/17    at Washington
9/24    at Southern Utah
10/1    vs. Idaho State
10/8    at Weber State
10/15    vs. Cal Poly
10/29    vs. Northern Colorado
11/5    at UC Davis
11/12    at Sacramento State
11/18    vs. Eastern Washington

2016 MVFC Preseason Preview: Western Illinois

2015 Record: 7-6 (5-3), 2nd Round Playoff loss

Key Returnees: QB Trenton Norvell, QB Sean McGuire, WR Lance Lenoir, WR Joey Borsellino, LB Brett Taylor, LB Adam Brott, DB David Griffith

Key Losses: RB Nikko Watson, DL Kris Harley, DL Eddy Holtschlag, DL Gavin Ricketts

 

Last season the Leathernecks became the first team in FCS history to receive an at-large berth into the playoffs with just 6 wins. Depending which side of the playoff bubble you fell on that was either the best, or worst thing to ever happen to the forums on AnyGivenSaturday.com. Think what you want about a 6 win team getting into the playoffs, the ‘Necks did technically finish 3rd in the MVFC a head of UNI and SDSU. The drawback to that bid though? It may have cost them their head coach, as Bob Neilson was poached by intraconference rival South Dakota…presumably to a higher salary. No time was wasted in finding a replacement though as Charlie Fisher was brought in from Richmond, where he had served as offensive coordinator for a highly successful Spider program.

The first decision Fisher must make is who to play at quarterback, as he has two capable options. If you read anything I said on AGS last year (on on The FCS Wedge radio show) I was a firm believer that WIU had the best QB/WR/RB combo in the MVFC with Norvell, Watson and then Borsellino and Lenior at wide receiver. Norvell is a three year starter in Macomb that has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 53 touchdowns in 33 games. With all of that why would there be a question about him starting going into this final season for the Leathernecks? Well, Norvell missed the final four games of the season due to an emergency appendectomy and in stepped redshirt freshman Sean McGuire. In those four games McGuire went 3-1, 85-158 for 1,159 yards with 6 touchdowns, though he had 6 picks as well. He was also was named MVFC Newcomer of the Week, STATS National Freshman of the Week, and to the MVFC All Newcomer team. That kind of production is impossible to ignore, and a new coach coming in has no preexisting feelings towards the long time starter and sees a guy with 3 years left to start and build his team around. No matter who starts Coach Fisher, it’s clear they are one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. Though, much like South Dakota State, I’d worry about trying to run a two quarterback system, should that be the path.

The Leathernecks will need to quickly find a replacement for the bowling ball that was Nikko Watson. In terms of play making ability, Watson probably wasn’t a top half running back in the conference last year. However, when it came time to get the tough yards and make a play there were few better than Nikko. I’m not entirely sure how Coach Fisher wants to utilize the running back position, but it looks thin from the outside. The leading returners are Steve McShane (65 carries 232 yards) and Devon Moore (68 carries 228 yards 4 TD). Give the talent at quarterback and receiver we may not need to see much, in terms of stats, from this position for the offense to succeed, but if I were a Leatherneck fan I’d be hesitant about getting the tough yards this coming season.

That brings us to what I consider the strongest position group in the entire conference – the Leatherneck wide receivers. Sure, individual receivers may be better than the guys on WIU’s roster but the 1-2 combo of Lance Lenoir and Joey Borsellino is tough to beat. I’d go as far as calling Borsellino the most under-valued receiver in the nation. Hell, I’d bet a good number of MVFC fans couldn’t tell you who he played for, what position he played, or even if he is a real player if asked about him only by name. Lenoir and Borsellino combined for 145 catches and over 2,000 yards. That’s not a bad 1-2 punch on the outside, folks. Add in Stacey Smith and J’Vaughn Williams, who combined for over 60 reception and 800 yards and you have guys who will exploit Lenoir or Borsellino getting double coverage.

The defense is what I question about this team. It’s why they finished just 6-5 in the regular season last year, despite having (what I consider) the best set of offensive weapons in the league. Coach Neilson has shown the ability to create dynamic offenses but lagged on developing defenses, something I think will be an issue for him at USD as they try to climb from the bottom of the conference. Last season WIU ranked in the bottom half of the conference in total defense (7th-399 yards per game), rush defense (7th- 196 yards per game), scoring defense (7th-29.7 points per game), sacks (9th-17), 1st down against (9th-22 per game), opponent 3rd down conversion (9th-42.1%), and opponent 4th down conversion (7th-57.9%). Coach Fisher is an offensive minded guy so I’m curious how he builds the defense. His defensive coordinator was brought in from Southern Illinois, who was a disaster on defense last season. There is individual talent on defense –  LB Brett Taylor, LB Adam Brott, and DB David Griffith are the most notable. WIU did finish with a MVFC high 19 picks and +8 TO margin last season. The pass defense as solid, as you’ll notice the lack of me pointing out the pass stats previously. What worries me is that most of the defensive line is gone from last year. So a defense that was poor against the run loses the foundation of stopping the run. In the MVFC that’s bound to be problematic.

One area I have to mention with WIU, that I haven’t mentioned elsewhere, is the special teams. I haven’t mentioned it with other teams as they are mostly unremarkable in that they don’t hinder the team so they go unnoticed. That’s a good thing. That’s not the case for WIU as they hit just 57% of their field goals, were last in PAT percentage, last in punt average (just 30 yards per punt), and 7th in kick off coverage. That needs to be fixed.

 

Prediction

9/1 @ Eastern Illinois – W 1-0 (0-0)

9/10 Northern Arizona – W 2-0 (0-0)

9/24 @ Northern Illinois – L 2-1 (0-0)

10/1 @ South Dakota State – L 2-2 (0-1)

108/ Indiana State – W 3-2 (1-1)

10/15 @ Missouri State – W  4-2 (2-1)

10/22 North Dakota State – L 4-3 (2-2)

10/29 @ South Dakota – W 5-3 (3-2)

11/5 Illinois State – W 6-3 (4-2)

11/12 Northern Iowa – L 6-4 (4-3)

11/19 @ Southern Illinois – W 7-4 (5-3)

I could easily see WIU putting the committee in the position of looking at a 6 win team in the playoffs again. The ‘Necks get Illinois State, UNI and NDSU at home. That’s good for ticket sales and pulling off an upset or two. The thing with WIU, is because of the defense and special teams I see every game as 50/50. I could see 3 or 4 wins. I could see 8 or more wins. Coach Fisher walked into a talented team, but can he mold that individual talent into team talent?

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Southeast Missouri State

2015 Record: 4-7 (3-4 OVC)

Key Losses: WR Paul McRoberts (First Team All-OVC)

Key Returnees: RB Tremane McCullough (First Team All-OVC), LB Roper Garrett (Second Team All-OVC)

 

 

Believe or not, SEMO was close to being 8-3 team, being #2 in the OVC, and taking EIU’s spot in the playoffs last year. Four of the Redhawks’ losses were decided by 5 points or less and included a missed last second field goal to force overtime against UTM, a miraculous 4th down stop by Shorter on SEMO’s final drive to ice the game, a failed last second 2 point conversion against Indiana State, and running out of time in the middle of a massive 21 point rally in the last 20 minutes of regulation at EIU.

Why is last year important in a preview for 2016?  Because the Redhawks only lost 3 starters and a total of 7 players from their two-deep lineup. It’s basically the same team only now with more experience.  The Redhawks have a legitimate shot at making a lot of noise in the conference this year and getting to the playoffs.

Schedule and Predictions:  7-4 (5-3 OVC)

L    9/3 @ Memphis

W    9/10 @ Southern Illinois

W    9/17 vs. Indiana State

W    9/24 @ Murray State

W    10/1 vs. EIU

L    10/8 @ Eastern Kentucky

W    10/22 @ Tennessee Tech

W    10/29 vs. Austin Peay

L    11/5 vs. Jacksonville State

L    11/12 @ UT-Martin

W    11/19 vs. Tennessee State

I know exactly what you’re thinking, bear with me. They return almost all their players and they weren’t a bad crew last year. They have EIU and Indiana State at home. It’s really not that far of a stretch, they just need a little luck this time around and they can punch their golden ticket to the playoffs for the first time since 2010.