Week 1 AGS GOTW | The Citadel at Mercer

Marc Goold | SoCon Contributor | September 1, 2016socon1

The AGS Game of the Week for Week 1 certainly met expectations, at least in regard to drama. With The Citadel on the road in Macon, Georgia, pitted against the scrappy Mercer Bears, it was destined for drama for many reasons. First off, it was an uncharacteristic SOCON opener, as well as a season opener for both both teams. Second, the last two years saw victories for The Citadel by only two points both years. But thirdly, the expectations for both teams this year is high. Drama was inevitable.

The Citadel is coming off its best year since its giant slaying days of the early 90s which resulted in a SOCON co-championship and a road playoff victory. Mercer is in its 4th year after resurrecting its football team from hibernation since 1941. To say that Mercer has done better than most FCS startups is an understatement at the very least. They have done very well. And what talent did they get back from last year’s team that beat SOCON co champ Chattanooga? Well, basically everyone. Yes, the game played in Macon, in the shadow of Hurricane Hermine, ready to skirt middle Georgia on Friday morning, could not help be an exciting game.

The Citadel faced many hurdles for this game. The Bulldogs lost the coach that led them to success last year. They also lost their DC and to an extent their OC, Brent Thompson, as well since he was promoted to HC. Needless to say there was a bit of coaching turmoil to deal with. They also lost some key play makers on D. The offensive line took some hits but not catastrophically. But the outlook was bright with most of the offensive juggernaut intact. That is until their starting Jr QB, Dominique Allen was suspended for game one and has been out with an injury to boot. Cue redshirt freshman Jordan Black. A southpaw who was challenged to make his first collegiate start, in a season opener, on the road, in what could prove to be a key SOCON matchup. But I hope, like others, that that is why folks choose to go to The Citadel or any school: to meet challenges.

The Mercer Bears, coached by the successful, former Furman coach, Bobby Lamb has a team loaded with talent. While the SOCON brand may have taken a hit by the departure of a couple teams in recent memory, it is still a tough conference to eke out wins in. And while Mercer has had issues getting wins in their first two years, they must at least get the consolation prize for having the most number of close losses in those two years. In 2014-15 they went 3-11 in SOCON play. They lost those 11 games by a total of 98 points or about 9 points a game…on average. Toss out 3 games where they got soundly handled and they lost the other 8 by just 30 points, combined! Yes they have been close many times loosing 1, 2 and 3 pointers regularly. They are poised for a better things in 2016.

As in any opening game, their are bound to some nerves. The player, the coaches, the fans are all a twitter as to how all the preparation will play out when that whistle blows. The Citadel received the opening kickoff and went to work. Named to multiple all American first and second team watch lists, Tyler Renew took his second run to the house for 70 yards. The Dogs looked good and the confidence must have been high on the Dogs bench–offense: check!

The Bear took to ensuing kickoff and started from their 28. A quick sack of senior Bear QB John Russ and a forced fumble gave the ball back to the Dogs O to give the Bulldogs confidence on the other side of the ball–defense: check!

The Citadel capitalized on the turnover rather quickly to make it 14-0 at the 13:00 mark of the First Qtr. It looked pretty good for the Dogs. The expected drama never appeared.

Mercer, however, would not be daunted. They took the next drive 12 plays and 67 yards for a FG. A drive in which Russ was 7 for 8 throwing. Might there be a crack in the Bulldogs D?

The Dogs answered quickly with a 75 yard drive in 5 plays to go up 21-3 with 29 yard TD run by A back Reggie Williams. The Bulldogs may have been bending on D but they were running on all cylinders on O. The redshirt Freshman QB Jordan Black was leading the O well and it looked like the Bulldogs would have a banner night for the stats and an easy opening win.

But anyone who is familiar with Mercer Football knew this was not the case. They would not go down without a fight. The Bears answered quickly themselves with a 5 plays 62 yards drive capped off by a John Russ 38 TD run up the middle to make it 21-10.

After the Bears held the Dogs to a five play drive and a punt the momentum slowly started to shift. It was a little surprising but on 4th and a short 1 at The Citadel 47, the Dogs punted rather than test their young QB to move the sticks. Had Allen been in, that decision may have been different. The Citadel D had moments of brilliance but they were overly aggressive in their pursuits and the Bear’s nimble running back, Payton Usher, started to put on a show on the enduing drive. The 10 play 62 yard drive featured 48 yards from Usher and resulted in another Bear FG to make it 21-13 early in the Second.
On the next drive the Bears D got their first three and out against the Dogs option attack. The momentum had definitely shifted at this point. The drama had definitely returned. The Bears took the punt and promptly march 59 yards in 4 plays highlighted by a Russ to Avery Wood pass which should have been a TD but was downed at the 1 on a great defensive effort. A quick Russ TD made it 21-20.

The Bulldogs had a great return which was padded by a Mercer personal foul to start their drive from the Mercer 42. But the Bears D had stiffened a great deal since the opening drive and they forced a 4th and 1 again from the Mercer 33. This time the Dogs would go for it, but the Bears held and the game was definitely wide open again.

The Dogs forced a punt on the ensuing drive and ran out the clock at the half with a slim lead of 21-20. It would not be a run away game like the Dogs thought after the first three drives. Mercer, and the leadership of Senior Bear QB John Russ had stopped it cold and fought back.

After the break, Mercer wasted no time in scoring as they marched 11 plays and 46 yards to score 3 to take their first lead of the game 23-21.

Whatever defensive adjustments the coaching staffs made paid off for both teams as they traded a few punts or turned it over on downs. It was now a defensive struggle. But by the fourth qtr the real story of the game was the penalties. Or more specifically, the Mercer penalties. The Bears had at least three drive stymied by penalties.

With 9:25 to go in the 4th the Bulldogs began a 65 yard drive which included 4 third down conversions and one catch and acrobatic run for 15 yards by the Dogs FB Renew on a 2nd-17. A Bulldog FG for 35 yards made it 24-23 with 2:16 to go. It would come down to the experienced senior Bear QB against the Bulldogs D. After a 6 yard run by Russ, the Dogs coverage was good enough for 4 straight incompletions by Russ also hindered by another inopportune penalty by the bears for an ineligible receiver downfield…ouch.

After the Dogs took over at the Mercer 24 it appeared in the bag for the Dogs with Mercer having only 2 TO”s remaining, but they were not done yet, coupled with some extremely conservative play calls by the Dogs O. A missed FG with 23 seconds left on a 4th and 13 for the Dogs gave the ball back to Mercer with at least a chance to pull out a miracle. Cue the Dogs “Department of Defense.” Russ tossed it to one of his wide receivers tiptoeing the sideline only to bobble it and an alert Kailik Williams snatched it for the Dogs for their first interception of 2016.

The drama was over. For the third year in a row The Citadel Bulldogs had walked away with the slimmest of victories over Mercer. But a SOCON win in week one is worth a lot of OOC wins at this point, even a close one. Conventional wisdom has Mercer in the thick of things come November. For the Bulldogs, getting a W in Macon week one is sweet. And while it is not going to make many Mercer fans happy, this may be just what the Bears need to motivate them to win the close ones as the season unfolds.

Yes, I think the AGS GOTW for Week One lived up to its billing.

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Tennessee State

2015 Record: 4-6 (1-6 OVC)

Key Losses: RB Tom Smith, CB Bernell Brooks

Key Returnees: DE Ebenezer Ogundeko (First Team All-OVC), WR Patrick Smith (Second Team All-OVC), OG Jessamen Dunker (Second Team All-OVC)

The Tigers are only two seasons removed from their 10-4 2013 season and their most recent trip to the playoffs.  They have been on a decline since then, posting records of 6-6 and 4-6 for the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The Tigers will likely come out swinging in 2016 and look to halt the decline and start the climb back up to the top of the OVC totem pole and they have the team to do it.  The Tigers return an experienced team, they only lost a couple starters this offseason and have potential to build on last year.  Head Coach Rod Reed knows what it takes to make the FCS playoffs as he’s taken the Tigers there before.

On offense the Tigers return the entire offensive line, quarterback O’Shay Ackerman-Carter, and wideouts Isaiah Jefferis-Freeman, Chris Sander-McCollum, and Patrick Smith. The Tigers offense last year lacked some kick, but with the entire offensive line returning, the Tigers have all the tools they need to improve from last year.  If the Tigers want to see more offensive success they have to improve their rushing attack.  Last year the Tigers only had 1234 yards rushing and only averaged 3.5 yards, ranking 98th nationally. The problem with that is that both running backs Tom Smith and Telvin Hooks have graduated. The good news is that junior running back Erick Evans looks very promising.  Evans saw significant time in the last four games of the season last year and racked up 375 yards, 6 touchdowns, and averaged 5.8 yards per carry.  If Evans can find the same sort of success this year it should help open up the offense to make more explosive plays in the passing game.

On defense the Tigers return eight starters.  The Tigers rode their defense a lot of the season last year and ranked in the top 50 nationally, giving up an average of 368 yards a game. They look to build upon last year and with playmakers like pre-season All-American defensive end Ebenezer Ogundeko they could prove to be one of the OVC’s top defenses. Linebackers Chris Collins, Antonio Justice, and Justin North look to help anchor the front seven on the Tigers defense. In the secondary the Tigers return cornerback Terrell Bonds and safeties Javon Brandon and Laquarius Cook.  There’s real potential here for the Tigers, they just need to build upon last year.

The Tigers have the capability to shake up the OVC this year.  They just have to go out and execute.

Schedule and Predictions:  6-5 (3-4 OVC)

    W    9/3 vs. Arkansas- Pine Bluff

    W    9/10 vs. Jackson State

    W    9/17 @ Bethune- Cookman

    L    10/1 vs. UT-Martin

    L    10/8 @ Eastern Illinois

    L    10/15 vs. Eastern Kentucky

    L    10/22 @ Vanderbilt

    W    10/29 @ Murray State

    W    11/5    @ Austin Peay

    W    11/12 vs. Tennessee Tech

    L    11/19 @ Southeast Missouri State

 

Tennessee State will likely see a slight improvement over last years record.  I could see the Tigers exceeding this prediction and contending for a spot in the playoffs. However, the level of play in the OVC is likely to take a step up this season and I think it will be harder for TSU contend for a playoff bid but they could be anywhere from a middle of the conference team to competing for a bid depending on how the rest of the conference shakes down.

2016 Big Sky Preview: Weber State

2015 Record: 6-5 (5-3)

Key Returners: Jadrian Clark, Eric Wilkes, Treshawn Garrett, Cameron Livingston, Emmett Tela, Taron Johnson

Key Losses: Josh Kealamakia

The Weber State Wildcats found themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot last season but ultimately fell short of their goal when all was said and done. The Wildcats basically won the games they were supposed to win and lost the games they were supposed to lose. They escaped Montana with an overtime win, probably their biggest upset of the season. Third year coach Jay Hill might have something brewing in Ogden, and the media has them picked to finish about where they ended last season. The Wildcats return many players from last season on the offensive side of the football, and with any luck can keep their defense right about where they were last season.

The Wildcats finished with the 65th best offense it the country last year, coming in with 369 yards per game. Their defense checked in at 32nd last season, pretty respectable for a Big Sky team. In fact, their defense was the top in the Big Sky last season. They gave up 346 yards per game. The Wildcats were the only Big Sky team to finish in the top 50 in total defense last season. The team finished -2 in the touchdown ratio, which might explain some of their problems last season. The Wildcats also finished -5 in turnovers last season. Quarterback Jadrian Clark finished on the wrong side of touchdowns vs interceptions himself. With a defense as good as they were last season the offense seemed to struggle when facing the better teams in the league. In three of their five losses last season they gave up 40+ points in those contests.

As mentioned above the Wildcats will be returning some notable offensive starters, quarterback Jadrian Clark who threw for 1875 yards and ten touchdowns. He also had eleven interceptions on the season. They will also return Eric Wilkes and Treshawn Garrett, their top two rushers from last season. Combined they went over 1000 yards and had ten touchdowns. Their leading receiver, Cameron Livingston will also be back this season, as well as Darryl Denby. They’ll also return junior corner Taron Johnson who led the team in interceptions last season with two. He was third in the Big Sky last season with 12 pass break-ups. Linebacker Emmett Tela will help anchor the defense this season too. Tela earned second team All-Big Sky last season as a sophomore. He led the team in tackles with 72, along with two forced fumbles and two sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss.

The Wildcats will kick off their season in Logan, Utah to take on Utah State. Their schedule has them facing Portland State, Southern Utah, North Dakota, and Northern Arizona. Not a fun schedule but they should be much like last season, win the games they’re supposed to win and lose the games they’re supposed to lose. If they can somehow sneak a few wins away from unfavored contests they could make a push for a playoff spot at the end of the season, but they will need to take down some of the league’s best. Two of those contests will be on the road for the Wildcats.

Thu, Sep 01      at Utah State
Sat, Sep 10      at South Dakota
Sat, Sep 17      Sacramento State
Sat, Sep 24      at UC Davis
Sat, Oct 08      Portland State
Sat, Oct 15      Montana State
Sat, Oct 22      at Southern Utah
Sat, Oct 29      at North Dakota
Sat, Nov 05      Northern Arizona
Sat, Nov 12      Cal Poly
Sat, Nov 19      at Idaho State

Patriot League Week 1 Preview

Patriot League Week 1 What to Know

The league kicks off its 31st season of football this weekend as all six members are in action. The top two teams in the preseason poll, Colgate and Fordham, start with daunting road trips against FBS programs while the rest of the league will battle fellow FCS foes.

Friday September 2nd

Lafayette @ Central Connecticut State  6:00 P.M. New Britain, CT

The Leopards will look to make an early statement as they attempt to rebound from a 1-10 season. Senior QB Drew Reed is expected to start for Lafayette. His experience will hopefully jumpstart an offense that averaged 13.6 points in 2015. Central Connecticut State is coming off a 4-7 season. The Blue Devils were picked 5th in the preseason NEC media poll.  This is just the third meeting between the two schools. CCSU won the inaugural game in 1980 and Lafayette exacted revenge in 1981.

Interesting Nugget – Former Lafayette head coach Bill Russo earned his first win on College Hill against Central Connecticut State in the 1981 game.

Colgate @ Syracuse  7:00 P.M. Syracuse, NY

The Raiders open the 2016 season with a short bus ride to face their Central New York rivals. One advantage Colgate should have is experience. The pride of the Chenango Valley return a veteran squad and a head coach entering his third year. Conversely, the Orange will showcase a number of new faces including new head coach Dino Babers. Lately it hasn’t mattered in this series who the Orange trot onto field. Syracuse has outscored Colgate 500-79 in the previous ten meetings.

Interesting Nugget – This will be 67th game between the two schools and the 64th held in Syracuse. The two have not met in Hamilton since 1897.

 Saturday September 3rd

Fordham @ Navy 12:00 P.M. Annapolis, MD

Fordham will look to notch their third consecutive FBS victory as they travel to Maryland to take on a proven Navy team. While Navy has a track record of success at college football’s highest level, the Rams enter this game with an arsenal of dangerous weapons on their side. None is more explosive than all everything RB Chase Edmonds. The junior running back already has 49 career touchdowns. This will be second game between these two. Navy won the first contest in 1914.

Interesting Nugget – Navy posted their highest final AP ranking in 2015, 18th, since the Middies finished #2 in 1963 under the command of Heisman Trophy winner Roger Staubach.

Monmouth @ Lehigh 12:30 P.M. Bethlehem, PA

The Mountain Hawks begin their 133rd season of football against a familiar face from New Jersey. This will be the sixth meeting between the two since 2010. Lehigh owns a 5-1 all-time record but the Hawks from West Long Branch won the last meeting 28-21 in 2014. Lehigh will start the season without 1st team all-league LB Colton Caslow.  The defensive leader will miss the game as he continues to recover from a broken hand. The much maligned Lehigh defense will look to slow down R-Sophomore QB Cody Williams and a dangerous group of skill players.

Interesting Nugget – Current Monmouth president Dr. Paul Brown served as the Dean of the college of Business and Economics at Lehigh from 2007-2013.

Davidson @ Georgetown 1:00 P.M. Washington, D.C.

The Hoyas and Wildcats both enter the 2016 campaign looking to build momentum after the two went a combined 6-16 last year. Georgetown will look towards talented senior TE Matt Buckman to get the offense moving while the QB position is settled. This will be the 12th meeting between these two academic stalwarts since 1999. The Hoyas currently own an 8-3 advantage.

Interesting Nugget – Former Colonial/Patriot League founding member Davidson has not posted a Division 1 win since 2012 when they took down Valparaiso 28-27.

Holy Cross @ Morgan State 2:00 P.M. Baltimore, MD

After posting their first winning season since 2011, expectations are high on Mount Saint James. A big reason for the optimism revolves around 4 year starting QB Peter Pujals. The 1st team all-league QB can really cement his place in Crusader lore by returning the PL championship to Worcester. He won’t have to do it alone as dangerous WR Brendan Flaherty provides a serious weapon outside. The Bears will look to improve on offense this year after averaging a modest 18.2 ppg in 2015. Holy Cross won the only prior meeting 29-26 in 2014.

Interesting Nugget – Fred T. Ferrier will be making his debut as the Morgan State head coach after Lee Hull joined the Indianapolis Colts in February.

Bucknell @ Marist 6:00 P.M. Poughkeepsie, NY

The Bison head to the Hudson Valley looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2015 season. Defense figures to once again lead the way for Bucknell which is bad news for a Marist team who struggled to score at times last year. That includes a 17-0 loss to the Bison in Lewisburg 12 months ago. This marks the 12th consecutive year the two have met. Bucknell is 10-1 in the previous 11 meetings.

Interesting Nugget  – Bucknell has won five consecutive season openers. Their last loss came against Duquesne in 2010 which was Coach Susan’s debut as the Bison head coach.

Big South: Week 1 Preview (9/1 – 9/3)

With the FCS Kickoff out of the way, everyone else finally gets a turn and, frankly, we’ve waited long enough.  Let’s get right to it:

 

Presbyterian @ Central Michigan – Thursday, Sept 1st, 7:00pm (ESPN3)

The Presbyterian College Blue Hose begin this season, as they do nearly every season, on the road.  On Saturday, PC will make their third visit to a MAC opponent in as many years but their first-ever visit to The Mitten State to take on the Chippewas of Central Michigan.   The Chippewas – or ‘the Chips’, for the more monosyllabically-inclined – hail from the city of Mount Pleasant which, if you imagine the the state of Michigan as a glove, is located right at the base of the middle finger.  Make of that fact what you will.

Last June, first-year CMU head coach John Bonamego was diagnosed with early-stage tonsil cancer and underwent chemotherapy treatment during the 2015 season.  He lost 75 pounds over the next several months but, by Christmas, was pronounced cancer-free.  So a sincere hats off to him, the Bonamego family and to the CMU program who supported him during the ordeal.

As for the football stuff, CMU returns 14 starters, including 4th-year starter at QB, Connor Rush, off a team that were chosen 5th pre-season in the MAC West but went on to win 7 games, tie for the MAC West title and be honored with an invite to the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.  Rush threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 25 TD’s in his junior season and will certainly hope to get a jump start on that against the Blue Hose.

Presbyterian comes into the 2016 season needing to find answers virtually everywhere except the quarterback spot and top running back spots.  QB Ben Cheek is the incumbent starter and, while he wasn’t particularly impressive in 2015, he’s at least a known quantity.  RB Darrell Bridges was a breakout player for PC in 2015 but, by necessity, played hurt the last half of the season and wasn’t at his most effective.  In both cases, the question of who backs these guys up as well as who starts pretty much everywhere else is very much up in the air.

What PC has to do against CMU:  Central Michigan averages around 18,000 in attendance.  While that may seem like a massive audience to Presbyterian’s younger players, the returning players for PC have played in front of bigger crowds and won’t be intimidated or impressed.  Those players have to be able send a message, both to the Chips as well as to their own team.  The older guys have to get their game faces on, bring some energy, be physically aggressive and they absolutely need the younger players to see them do it.  This game is less about scoring a major upset win for PC but, rather, about earning some valuable money for the program and setting a tone for the rest of the season.  On offense, PC will try to control and manage the clock using the running game and short, manageable passes.  The Chips defense, however, should be very alert for the trick play.  Nichols likes to roll out one or two gadgets in these kind of games in order to have a little fun, keep the other team’s defense honest and give defensive coordinators farther down the schedule one more headache to deal with.  Also, getting on SportsCenter every so often doesn’t hurt either.  On defense, PC wants to play a smart but highly-aggressive style and this is where “setting the tone” really matters.  The struggle on that side of the ball will be playing an attacking style while mixing in a fair number of new players.  Mistakes will be made and they will likely cost the Blue Hose points in this game but it’s better to learn from those mistakes now as opposed to when the consequences matter more toward the result of the season.  On special teams, Presbyterian needs to be consistent, particularly in the punting game.  PC must replace an outstanding punter lost to graduation who was as much a part of their effective defense as anyone else.  It’s likely that they will get a lot of punts in on Thursday so this will be a good time to solidify the position.

Best case scenario for PC – Play hard, play aggressive, avoid injury and establish a mindset and a style of play for the rest of the season.  On offense, score a touchdown on some wacky play and maybe get on Top10 Plays again.

Worst case scenario – Cheek and/or Bridges gets hurt, the team lays down in the second half and the team flight out of Michigan gets delayed allowing everyone way too much time to sit around in the airport and stare at each other, wondering what all their non-football-playing friends at SEC schools are doing right now.

 

Kentucky St (0-0) @ Charleston Southern (0-1) – Saturday, Sept 3rd, 11:45am (no TV)

With the FCS Kickoff out of the way, Charleston Southern can now move on to a game on the schedule that’s just slightly less-hyped, their home opener versus the Thorobreds of D2 Kentucky State (no, that’s not a typo; Kentucky State’s nickname is, in fact, misspelled).  Kentucky State finished 4th in the SIAC West in 2015 and, in the offseason, named former Idaho/Utah State/Louisville/Michigan State/Weber State/Arkansas/Fort Lewis College head coach John L. Smith to lead their program.  Unsurprisingly, these two programs have never played each other.  Kentucky State is an HBCU located in Frankfort, KY an eight-hour bus ride from CSU’s campus.  Fortunately, this game will kick off at 11:45am so the visitors should realistically be back on the road by dinner time.

John L Smith was reasonably successful at Fort Lewis, going 7-4 last season which was the first time FLC had won seven games since 2006.  He brings with him to the Misspelled Horses program a run-oriented offense based primarily out of the pistol formation.  Kentucky State only had 50 players on the roster at the end of spring drills but have added 70 new players since then.  To say that they might be a young team is a bit of an understatement.

What Charleston Southern has to do against Kentucky State:  Dominate.  The flag of the Buccaneers’ program has never flown higher than it’s flapping right now and CSU needs to take advantage of that fact.  There should be a sizeable home crowd on hand Saturday – sizeable relative to Charleston Southern anyway – and they will want to see the football equivalent of blood in the water.  CSU needs to give it to them.  On offense, CSU must execute quickly, score early, score often and  get QB Kyle Copeland off the field.  Copeland took quite a physical beating at the hands of North Dakota State and getting him out of the game early as well as getting the other quarterbacks some valuable game experience would benefit everyone involved.  On defense, the Bucs can’t let up.  Their defensive style is aggressive and attacking which only works when it’s run at full speed.  If the players on the field relax and play less than 100% simply because they’re going up against a lower-division opponent, it opens too many holes and a halfway decent offense will make them pay.  Under the circumstances, I doubt that Kentucky State has a halfway decent offense but CSU can’t take that chance.

Best case scenario for Charleston Southern – CSU scores many, gets their starters out of the game and gets in the second team, the third team and whoever has remaining eligibility and happens to be present in the stadium.  Depth is an issue for the Bucs so saving the starters and developing depth are paramount.

Worst case scenario – More player injuries and Kentucky State exploits a post-NDSU hangover for points.  CSU should win this game handily but how they win it is important.

 

Liberty @ Virginia Tech – Saturday, Sept 3rd, 12:30pm (ACC Network, Liberty Flames Sports Network)

Here’s an odd but almost completely meaningless fact:  2016 will mark the second year in row and third time in the last four years that Liberty has gone into their season opener facing off against a brand new head coach on the far sideline.   This situation is slightly different from many others in that Virginia Tech’s defense is a known quantity.  VT defensive coordinator, Bud Foster, has been the mastermind behind the Hokies’ defense for two decades and last winter’s change at the top from retiring head coach Frank Beamer to current head coach Justin Fuente hasn’t changed that.  What will be different will be the up-tempo spread attack that Fuente brings with him from Memphis. Oddly enough, Liberty also went through a similar schematic shift this past offseason.  While DC Robert Wimberly is still calling the defense, quarterback coach Joe Dailey was promoted to being the Flames’ offensive coordinator and installed a – you guessed it – up-tempo spread attack.

At Liberty, questions abound all over the field.  How do you replace the most productive quarterback, wide receiver, kicker and sack artist in school history all at once?  How quickly can the returning players adapt to the new offensive scheme?  Can Liberty re-establish a running game that was so effective in 2014 but was wildly inconsistent in 2015?  How will a relatively young defensive secondary with only one senior in it respond to Virginia Tech’s athleticism?

What Liberty has to do against Virginia Tech – On offense, Liberty must execute execute execute.  Many of the Flames’ struggles on offense a year ago came down to lost opportunities.  A bad pitch, a missed block, a dropped pass, a flubbed snap, they all seemed to come at the worst possible moments.  Newly-anointed starting quarterback Stephone Masha and the rest of the LU offense must take advantage of the new start that their offensive change-up has given them.  On defense, Liberty has to keep everything in front of them.  Virginia Tech’s team speed should be, at least on paper, the year’s biggest test for the Flames defenders and if the Hokies can start completing passes over the top, it’s going to be a very long day for the visitors.  On special teams, keep field goals manageable.  Liberty’s kicker from 2015 is gone to the NFL and his replacement is a true freshman.   There are probably more humane environments to break in a young kicker than Lane Stadium but, hey, if you can split the uprights with 65,000 people screaming and ‘Enter Sandman’ blaring at you, you can probably do it anywhere.

Best case scenario for Liberty against Virginia Tech – The LU offense executes, the LU defense makes the new VT offense work for their yardage and getting a Hokie turnover or two couldn’t hurt.

Worst case scenario for Liberty – Any significant injury to Masha.  The backup QB is a true freshman.  The third QB is a grayshirt freshman.  The fourth guy is a true freshman.  If there’s a fifth QB, he’s TBD but probably also a freshman.  You see where I’m going with this.

 

Monmouth @ Lehigh – Saturday, Sept 3rd, 12:30pm (SE2, PLN)

The Monmouth Hawks – hereafter known as the Jersey Hawks – begin the 2016 season in what has become a somewhat familiar venue to them, Goodman Stadium, to take on the Mountain Hawks of Lehigh University.  (Go some version of Hawks!)  Monmouth is 1-5 all-time against Lehigh but that lone win came in the most recent game in the series in 2014.  Monmouth brings back the bulk of its offensive output for this game so it could be quite a test for Lehigh’s defense.

Generally, the Lehigh-Monmouth game has been, for Lehigh, a tune-up game heading into showdowns with the Ivies and, for Monmouth, a frustrating illustration as to why conference-imposed scholarship limits don’t really work in football.  Now that both schools are on equal footing, at least on principle, in terms of athletic aid it becomes more of a true competition between non-conference opponents.   I expect this to be a tightly-contested football game.

What Monmouth has to do against Lehigh – On offense, get first downs.  A year ago, Lehigh came out hot against NEC also-ran Central Connecticut State but struggled to put them away late, eventually winning 20-14.  What ultimately did CCSU in was the fact that they couldn’t mount a sustained drive until late in the game.  Monmouth is a much better offensive unit than CCSU was and if MU can keep the chains moving, it bodes well for the Jersey Hawks.  The thing that CCSU did do well on defense was force early turnovers that kept Lehigh from jumping out too far in front.  In 2015, Monmouth did a decent job themselves in forcing turnovers, averaging just under two takeaways a game, so if they can keep up that trend in 2016, they’ll be all right.  On special teams, don’t let it come down to field goals.  MU kicker Matt White hit two huge kicks to beat a ranked Liberty team last year but he was inconsistent on FG’s of all ranges last year.

Best case scenario for Monmouth against Lehigh – Win at all costs.  Any kind of win is necessary for Monmouth here.  Thanks to construction on their home stadium, the Jersey Hawks are a bit of a transient team this year so any kind of success against teams in their backyard – for these purposes, the northern mid-Atlantic region – will be invaluable in keeping the MU fan base engaged and their momentum remaining on the positive.

Worst case scenario for Monmouth –Lose big.  MU’s first home game isn’t until 9/24 with trips to Delaware State and Kent State in between.  They should beat able to beat DSU in their sleep but a loss by a wide margin to Lehigh probably also means a loss by an even wider margin to Kent.  With the next two games after that both being 2015 playoff teams (Charleston Southern and Fordham), Monmouth could very quickly find themselves in a deep hole.

 

Gardner-Webb @ Elon – Saturday, Sept 3rd, 3:30pm (American Sports Network)

Gardner-Webb begins 2016 by rolling up I-85 to Elon in the return game from last year’s home opener hosted by the Runnin’ Bulldogs.  GWU is 9-21 all-time against Elon and hasn’t beaten the Phoenix in Burlington since 1992 when the schools were conference rivals in Division II.

The last meeting between the two schools in 2015 was a game best described by neutral observers as “eventually completed”.  In a game completely uninhibited by weather, neither team could get anything going offensively – both teams went 3-and-out on every drive in the 1st quarter – and the score at the halftime break was knotted at zero.  Midway through the 3rd, Elon eventually took advantage of a short field thanks to a G-W turnover and got a touchdown on the board. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, futzed about on offense for 97% of the game before, finally, mounting a furious 4th-quarter comeback.  With just two minutes and change on the clock, QB Tyler Maxwell drove his team the length of the field and, as time expired, tossed a 4th-and-goal pass to TE Mike Estes for the touchdown that tied the game.  And I do mean the touchdown.  It was their only touchdown on the night and the game ended regulation tied 7-7.  In the first two overtimes, the two teams traded field goals before Elon finally found the end zone again in the third OT to go up a score.  Given their chance with the ball, GWU again went nowhere.  Maxwell was knocked out of the game after taking a hard hit on a pass attempt and his replacement promptly threw the game-ending interception.

That’s the kind of hype that this year’s meeting has to live up to.  For the sake of the football-watching world, let us all hope it surpasses its precedent.

But, what’s all that different this time around for the Runnin’ Bulldogs?  Over the course of last season, Maxwell struggled badly in head coach Carroll McCray’s offense but did occasionally show flashes of adequacy.  In the offseason, however, there was a bit of an outcry from the Gardner-Webb faithful for the Bulldogs to find a viable alternative.  The case for someone else may have been answered by the arrival of Ramsey Rigby, a one-semester grayshirted transfer from Troy University.  Based on high school film, Rigby seems to be a dual-threat athlete much in the same vein as Maxwell so it remains to be seen how quickly he can acclimate the offensive scheme and separate himself in the quarterback competition.

What Gardner-Webb has to do against Elon:  Neither team has given any indication that, schematically, they’ll be that much different than they were a year ago.  In order to win this game, Gardner-Webb has to do…anything better.  Or something better.  Literally, any little thing they do better in any phase of the game will be progress.  In 2015, the O did almost nothing and they still nearly came away with the win.  This, of course, assumes that the defense is still on point.  Last year’s defensive coordinator, Randall McCray –the head coach’s brother – got quite a bit of credit for the relative strength of the Bulldog defense.   However, he left for Texas State in the offseason and it will be interesting to see if new DC Travis Cunningham can keep the defense going in a positive direction.   On a completely unrelated note, Cunningham is the nephew of ETSU head coach Carl Torbush and both men have outstanding mustaches.

Best case scenario for Gardner-Webb – The offense scores three touchdowns, the defense holds serve and they win the game.  G-W averaged just over 12 points a game last year so it’s imperative that the offense get going early in the season.  Also, as we look at the rest of their schedule, if the Bulldogs hope to be favored in any of the games they have left, they have to win this one.

Worst case scenario for Gardner-Webb – The offense is, again, stuck in neutral for the entire game while the defense goes in reverse allowing Elon to put the contest away early.  GWU will have to go back to the drawing board while still staring down a September slate of The Citadel, Western Carolina and Ohio U.

 

Kennesaw State vs. East Tennessee State – Saturday, Sept 3rd, 7:00pm (Peachtree TV)

Kennesaw opens their second-ever season of football hosting East Tennessee State, the same opponent that the Owls faced off against in their first-ever game a year ago.  It was a relatively tight game until halftime but, in the second half, KSU opened up and blew ETSU’s doors off for a 56-16 win.  The Owls went on to win 6 games and earned as much respect as a first-year program could expect to gain.  The Buccaneers, on the other hand, went on to lose to every Division 1 and Division 3 team on the schedule.  Neither team really has any history to build on here so let’s move straight to the focus.

At this writing, KSU is a 26-point favorite on 5dimes.  ETSU has had a full year to mature since the last meeting so I think a nearly four-touchdown spread is extreme but I still expect the the Owls to win and win going away.  KSU’s triple-option runs smoothly so long as QB Trey White is at the helm.  If he’s 100% recovered from the injury that ended his part in the 2015 campaign, ETSU’s still-young defense is going to have a hard time containing him.

What Kennesaw has to do against ETSU – On offense, the Owls have to do what they do best which is run the football and eat the clock.  Don’t do anything weird.  KSU may have ETSU out manned but the triple-option is an offense that usually needs all three downs to get firsts and the Buccaneers head coach, Carl Torbush, is an outstanding defensive mind.  If ETSU can catch a break or two and KSU tries to get cute on offense, it could get a little scary for the home team.  Just get to 1-0 and save the experimental stuff for NAIA Point University the following week.  On defense, contain ETSU’s rushing attack.  A year ago, the Buccaneers weren’t particularly good at anything offensively but they did, at least, try to establish a ground game.  If the KSU defense can force ETSU to the air where they are less productive, it plays right into the hands of the KSU offense.

Best case scenario for Kennesaw – Win, get younger players (well, they’re nearly all younger so younger-er players) some reps and move on.

Worst case scenario – Lose the game.  I don’t say that lightly.  KSU can overcome injuries but losing to a team they throttled a year ago could be devastating to a young team.  Yes, KSU only has Point on deck for Week 2 but Duquesne and Furman are lined up right behind them.  At no point in its short history has the KSU program ever had a losing record and going into conference play below .500 is not a position the Owls want to be in.

 

 

The FCS Wedge – 2016-0831 – LISTEN UP!

Lance Berndt & Kris Kallem kick of the 2016 season with a recap of the NDSU-CSU game. They have a great discussion about the pitfalls of scheduling for some FCS teams and go over the preseason AGS Top 25.  Then they hit on the most enticing FCS vs.FCS as well as some possible FCS over FBS upsets.  Plus, there is a great point about Rottweilers at the end.  You should listen.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

2016 Preseason OVC Preview: Eastern Illinois

Eastern Illinois University

2015 Record: 7-5 (7-1 OVC) FCS Playoffs First Round

Key Losses: DT Dino Fanti (Second Team All-American), DB Jourdan Wickliffe (First Team All-OVC)

Key Returnees: RB Devin Church (Second Team All-OVC), OT Jimmy Lowery (Second Team All-OVC), LB Seth McDonald

 

Head Coach Kim Dameron is entering his third year at Eastern Illinois.  Last year he saw his Panthers fight back from a 0-3 record to punch their ticket to the FCS playoffs for the first time since the departure of Tom Brady’s backup, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.  

Aside from All-American Dino Fanti and All-OVC Jourdan Wickliffe, one major loss for the Panthers is quarterback Jalen Whitlow.  Whitlow is one of only 3 losses for the Panthers on offense and Austin Green looks to fill Whitlows shoes next season.  Things get better for the Panther’s offense as well, they not only return All-OVC rusher Devin Church, but also return a veteran offensive line and bring in Arkansas transfer Korliss Marshall, giving the Panthers one of the most solid rushing games in the conference.

On defense, there’s work to do as the Panthers will have to replace three All-OVC selections, including EIU’s only 2015 All-American selection.  Linebacker Seth McDonald will likely form the backbone for a new Panthers defense as he totaled over 100 tackles last season. Defensive Lineman Jarvis Williams will help fill Dino Fanti’s shoes and safety Bradley Dewberry will help provide experience in a secondary that has to replace both starting cornerbacks.

Schedule and Predictions: 7-5 (5-3 OVC)

    W    9/1 vs. Western Illinois

    L    9/10 @ Miami (OH)

    L    9/17 @ Illinois State

    W    9/24 vs. Austin Peay

    L    10/1 @ Southeast Missouri State

    W    10/8 vs. Tennessee State

    W    10/15 @ Tennessee Tech

    W    10/22 vs. Murray State

    L    10/29 @ Jacksonville State

    W    11/5 vs. UT- Martin

    L     11/19 @ Eastern Kentucky

The key game here for the Panthers is their September 17th matchup with Illinois State.  Illinois State lost a HUGE chunk of offense this year with the departure of Tre Roberson and All-American running back Marshaun Coprich.  The game may be in Normal but don’t be surprised if the Panthers come home with the win but we will have to wait and see.  Pulling off a win on the road at EKU or SEMO would also help the Panthers get another playoff bid.

2016 Big Sky Preview: UC-Davis

2015 Record: 2-9 (2-6)

Key Returners: Ben Scott, Manusamoa Luuga, Chris Martin

Key Losses: Alex Cannon, Brady Stuart, Ramon Vargas

The battle for last place last season was a three way battle and UC-Davis was one of those teams battling for a spot at the bottom of the pile. That’s not a terrific place to be, but unfortunately for the Aggies they’ve found themselves there the last couple of seasons. The Aggies have not made an appearance in the playoffs since transitioning from Division II to FCS back in 2003. Their last playoff win was back in 2002 when they defeated Central Washington. Ron Gould will be entering his fourth season at the helm of the Aggies and owns a 9-25 record since his arrival. You have to think that if he can’t get this team moving in an upward direction that he might find himself on the hot seat at the end of the season. The boosters will probably not tolerate another season of 2-9. The Aggies have a tough go of it this season but at least they’ll have a senior quarterback to guide them.

The Aggies finished the season at 74th in total offense, gaining 358 yards per game. Not a horrible number for a team that won two games last season. The defense seemed to be your typical Big Sky defense, finishing 104th, giving up 448 yards per game. The Aggies finished -20 in the touchdown category, which by my estimation was probably not good. UC-Davis finished -5 in the turnover category, which also points a finger to some of the pitfalls the team suffered last season. The Aggies will need to do anything to improve that number if they want to find themselves any more wins this coming season.

UC-Davis does return its senior quarterback, Ben Scott. He threw for 1598 yards last season with 11 touchdowns. Their leading rushers from last season also return, Manusamoa Luuga and Joshua Kelley. Their leading receiver is also back, Chris Martin. Luuga accounted for seven touchdowns last season. He figures to be a bright spot for this football team, as he was also their third leading receiver last season. Chris Martin caught 658 yards worth of passes and five touchdowns for the Aggies. If these guys can somehow build a little more chemistry together, and the defense improve even a little bit they could pencil themselves a win or two more.

The Aggies schedule is going to be a huge test this season. Their first game will be against the Oregon Ducks, then two weeks later will travel to Laramie, Wyoming to take on the Cowboys. They also have games at Eastern Washington, Southern Utah and Montana State. They’ll have Portland State at home. This is a tough task for a team that finished with two wins last season. Looking at their schedule there may not be more than two wins on this schedule, one of them being a game against Southern Oregon, a Division II team. With the Aggies, however, nothing is a given.

09/03/16     at Oregon
09/10/16     vs. Southern Oregon
09/17/16     at Wyoming
09/24/16     vs. Weber State
10/01/16     at Eastern Washington
10/08/16     at Southern Utah
10/15/16     vs. Northern Colorado
10/22/16     at Cal Poly
11/05/16     vs. Portland State
11/12/16     at Montana State
11/19/16     vs. Sacramento State

Must Watch: Week 1

Now that we’ve all had a chance to get our first hit of the wonderful drug that is football, we get to settle in and enjoy a full weekend of college football. The problem with that, if you’re like me, is that there is something like 97 games featuring FCS teams between Thursday and Sunday this first week. As much as I’d love to watch every single game I have this thing called a wife, two kids, grad school, job and family coming into town to celebrate the 800 birthdays we have in the month of September between both sides of the family. Even with all of that I’m going to watch just enough football to get me in trouble with my wife, but not enough to put me in the dog house. To do this I must be strategic. I’ve spent some time carefully plotting how, and which games to sneak games in. If you want to see the schedule for all FCS games, we have a handy little spreadsheet on AGS with that information found here.

Chances are that your priorities for which games you need to catch are different than mine but here is a quick list of 20 games I think are a “must watch…at least part of” for the opening weekend:

Thursday, Sept 1 TIME  (CT) TV
Maine @ Connecticut 6:00 PM ESPN3
North Dakota @ Stony Brook 6:00 PM
The Citadel @ Mercer 6:00 PM ESPN3
Southwestern College @ Missouri State 6:00 PM ESPN3
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois 6:00 PM
Delaware State @ Delaware 6:00 PM
North Alabama @ Jacksonville State 6:00 PM
Duquesne @ Youngstown State 6:30 PM ESPN3
William & Mary @ NC State 6:30 PM ESPN3
Montana State @ Idaho 8:00 PM ESPN3
  • I’m not sure Maine has what it takes to knock off UCONN, but it wouldn’t be the biggest upset
  • UND looking to prove last year was just step one in becoming a legit top 20 team traveling half way across the county to take on a SBU team that believes they belong
  • The Citadel/Mercer is a sneaky good game most outside ofthe SoCon probably miss. Side note to the SoCon, why is this week 1?
  • I’m probably the only one that cares about MSU/SWC. MSU is horrid but are a 54 point favorite. That can’t be right.
  • WIU/EIU is one of the most underrated rivalries in the FCS. This will be the 67th meeting with both teams looking like playoff contenders.
  • DSU/UD means nothing to anyone outside of the state, but in a state that size this game is just fun to watch on and off the field.
  • How can a D2 game against a top 5 FCS team make the list? Well, 2013 was a 3 point game and North Alabama isn’t your normal D2.
  • Youngstown hasn’t lost an FCS OOC game since 2009 but they have been mighty close recently. I mostly just want to see Pelini melt down.
  • William & Mary may be without running back Kendall Anderson, which would tamper me trying to watch, but if he plays the Tribe could be collecting a FBS scalp.
  • Future conference-mates with Montana State/Idaho. I’m just curious as to the environment in the Kibbie Dome given what transpired this off season.

 

Saturday, September 3 @ TIME  (CT) NAT TV
Fordham @ Navy 11:00 AM CBSSN
Richmond @ Virginia 2:30 PM ESPN3
Southern Illinois @ Florida Atlantic 5:00 PM
South Carolina State @ UCF 6:00 PM ESPN3
Towson @ South Florida 6:00 PM ESPN3
South Dakota State @ #13TCU 7:00 PM
Stephen F Austin @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM
Eastern Washington @ Washington State 7:00 PM PAC12
Northern Iowa @ Iowa State 7:00 PM
New Hampshire @ San Diego State 7:30 PM
  • Last season the Rams took out Army. Navy isn’t Army but the Rams have the offense to knock off the Midshipmen
  • Richmond looking for the best kind of FBS scalp – in-state rival.
  • SIU’s defense is bad, but I expect a win by the Salukis here.
  • SCSU, who get votes in the AGS Preseason Top 25, taking on a UCF team that hasn’t won a game since Dec 4, 2014
  • Towson appears to be a sleeper team for many this coming year. A USF team that went 8-5 last year is a perfect early season test.
  • I don’t expect the Jacks to really be all that close to TCU, but there is a 99.693% chance this game is entertaining to watch.
  • SFA and TTU is much like a cross between he last two games listed. I’m interested to see what the Jacks bring this year, mostly this should be a fun watch.
  • The last three are my most likely week 1 FBS upsets
    • EWU has the offensive play-makers to beat anyone, but do they have an offensive line…or defense?
    • UNI has out-gained Iowa State in almost every game the last decade and are something like 12 points from having a winning record over the last 7 games against the Cyclones
    • New Hampshire traveling across the country for a late kick didn’t work last year so I’m not sure why I think it will this year, against a better team. Call it a hunch…..keep in mind I told people on AGS to bet all the money, with fury, on NDSU to cover against CSU this past weekend

What did I miss? I know you have a game that you “can’t miss” that doesn’t involve your team.

*Disclaimer: If any of these games end up being a snoozefest, don’t blame me. Remember, a snooze of a game is better than no game.

Big South: Week 0 Recap

(1-0)   North Dakota State 24, (0-1)   Charleston Southern 17 (OT)

I know a lot of the pundits are cheering today about what a great college football game the FCS Kickoff was and how this contest bears out the truth that “anyone can beat anyone on any given Saturday”.  Initially, I watched it live on Saturday night and was genuinely impressed with the poise and intensity of both teams. Then, I went back and watched it again on replay (thank you, ESPN3) and was, to be honest, extremely disappointed.  Respectfully, this game sucked.  Yes, it was a tightly-contested contest throughout and the finish came down the wire and beyond but,  just because it was a close game that got Mack Brown to slightly raise his voice in volume at the end from Old-Man-Telling-Stories-After-Sunday-Dinner Level to Slightly-Drunk-Old-Man-Telling-Stories-At-Christmas-Party Level doesn’t mean it was a good game.  I think what we all expected and hoped for with two such highly-ranked teams was essentially playoff-caliber football played in August. Rather, this was the kind of game you might expect from two teams who haven’t played a live contest in eight months and are breaking in a fistful of new starters.  The replay shows just how many penalty flags, miscues and so many, many missed opportunities — especially for the Bison — littered the field at the end and that’s really what we saw Saturday night, two teams on national television just trying to make sure they got lined up straight.  Because it was on ESPN proper doesn’t change that.

On to the Big South perspective:

Offensively, there was just one single positive for CSU and his name was Mike Holloway.  By himself, Holloway’s 146 rushing yards on ten carries accounted for nearly half of CSU’s 263 total yards of offense for the entire night.  Still, while that’s a great rushing total, he rolled up 109 of those yards on just three carries.  Take away those three individual plays from the stats sheet and CSU did virtually nothing else on that side of the ball.  QB Kyle Copeland was 8-20 passing for under 100 yards and was, frankly, beaten nearly into oblivion by the NDSU front seven.  I hope they gave that guy a full-body ice bag with his post-game meal.

Defensively, however, CSU played hard and very intelligently.  The Bucs blitzed religiously and, at some point or other, sent virtually every defensive player on the field at the new NDSU starting quarterback, a young man who may become a talented starter for the Bison but who does not yet resemble the top-2 draft pick whom he has to replace.  (Honestly, that kid double-pumped so many times in the face of a 6-man rush.  Did he also fill his car up twice at the gas station on the way home from the game?  Yes, that’s a terrible joke.)  Further, CSU’s defense, which matches up much better with spread teams, also took advantage of the fact that NDSU chose to give show less power looks than we’re used to seeing.  I suppose that the NDSU coaching staff hoped to take advantage of QB Easton Stick’s athleticism but it also partially negated their significant size advantage on the O-line and played right into Charleston Southern’s hands.  Even though the Bison still had a very solid statistical output on the night, the Bucs kept the majority of the plays in front of them and prevented NDSU from getting into any kind of offensive rhythm, keeping the Bison largely out of the end zone during regulation and keeping the sputtering CSU offense in the game.  They also collected two late half turnovers which led directly to the Bucs’ first score and a chance to win the game outright, respectively.

On special teams, kicker Jacob Smoak was a revelation.  Who is he?  No one knows, apparently.  The CSU sports information department doesn’t even have a headshot for the guy on the team roster page.  All we know is that he’s a freshman with a big leg and nerves of steel.  But, with the offense stagnant, the Bucs really needed a spark from their special teams and they just didn’t get it.  Credit goes to the NDSU cover teams as CSU’s best kick return of the night was by Darius Hammond for 27 yards and that drive ended in a Kyle Copeland interception.

What does this loss mean for CSU? – In terms of poll rankings, it should mean virtually nothing.  Not many – including me – gave CSU a lot of hope to win going into this game and the close score probably means that the Bucs may see a slight drop in the polls but not a significant one.  What does hurt CSU in this loss is that it creates a very slim margin of error for their postseason hopes.  The Bucs have ten games left on the docket but only eight of them are against D1 competition.  Included in those eight games, are visits to ACC powerhouse Florida State and FBS-transitional Coastal Carolina.  CSU has been reasonably successful against Coastal in the last few years but haven’t won in Conway, SC since 2008.  FSU will, obviously, be heavily-favored against the Bucs and Coastal probably will be as well.  If CSU has any slip-ups at all in Big South conference play or against Bucknell – the only other D1 team on the slate –, it’s quite conceivable that, despite all the hype and good will generated from their tight loss in the FargoDome, the Bucs could be sitting at home in December.