Big Sky Conference Week 1 Preview

The Big Sky football season is upon us once again, and this season looks to be one of the more exciting seasons in recent memory. Super star wide receiver Cooper Kupp has left us, but rest assured there are plenty of other players that we’ll be watching over the course of the season.

Last season ended with Eastern Washington being the last Big Sky team left standing, they suffered a season ending loss to Youngstown State in Cheney on what might have been one of the strangest plays of the college football season. The Penguins moved on to play James Madison in the FCS championship. Other Big Sky teams to make the playoffs were Cal Poly, who was defeated by San Diego in the first round. Weber State, who was defeated by Chattanooga in the first round and North Dakota, who was defeated in the second round.

Eastern Washington had an offseason full of losses, losing their top playmakers to graduation, as well as head coach Beau Baldwin. Baldwin moved onto the FBS to take the offensive coordinator job at California. The Eagles named Aaron Best their new head coach and moved on with their offseason.

North Dakota was picked by the coaches and the media to be the preseason Big Sky champions. The Fighting Hawks were the seven seed in the playoffs last season, Eastern Washington was seeded second. The Fighting Hawks return a pair of talented running backs, John Santiago and Brady Oliveira. They also return one of the top secondary players in the league, Cole Reyes. The Hawks have a lot of talent to win the league, however, their schedule is considerably more difficult this season.

Other teams that factor into the Big Sky race this year are Northern Arizona, Cal Poly, Weber State, and Montana. Northern Arizona returns talented receiver Emmanuel Butler as well as quarterback Case Cookus. Last year a few injuries derailed the Lumberjacks’ season but they should be primed to make a run at the top of the standings this season.

Cal Poly returns running back Joe Protheroe, but the Mustangs will have a gauntlet ahead of them. The Mustangs played a week 0 game against Colgate and lost 20-14. They will face San Jose State and Northern Iowa on the road, and come back to face Northern Arizona at home. Their schedule should be fairly favorable to close the season, but the Mustangs can’t afford to start 0-4 if they want to be a playoff team.

Weber State is a team that’s been slowly building into a talented football team, and somewhat culminated last season with a trip to the playoffs, their first since 2009. This season the Wildcats return a stout defense led by Landon Stice and Taron Johnson. The Wildcats schedule is favorable for another playoff trip, however, games against NAIA Montana-Western and California could be a detriment to the Wildcats playoff resume. They will need to also beat Cal Poly and Eastern Washington on the road to build their resume for the post season.

Montana is looking to recover from a rare season where they did not make the playoffs. After a 6-5 season and no post season the Griz are looking to turn their fortune around. They will need to do it with a new quarterback, Reese Phillips, leading the team. The Griz will rely on Phillips, as well as talented slot receiver Jerry Louis-McGee and linebacker Josh Buss to get the team back to their winning ways. The Griz’s schedule plays out that we probably won’t find out how good the Griz are until September 23rd, a home date with Eastern Washington. The Griz will get North Dakota and Northern Arizona at home, those will need to be wins for the Griz to get back to the post-season.

As for the rest of the Big Sky, Montana State and Southern Utah look like the most competitive teams of the bottom half of the conference. Montana State is returning young quarterback Chris Murray. Murray’s summer development will be important for the Cats if they are going to be competitive under second year head coach Jeff Choate. Southern Utah will again rely on a tough defense to get them through the season led by Mike Needham at linebacker. Portland State is looking for big things with third year coach Bruce Barnum and could be a team walking through the season looking for upsets. Idaho State replaced their coaching staff this offseason, abruptly firing Mike Kramer. Kramer is replaced by Rob Phenecie, a former Montana offensive coordinator. Rounding out the bottom are Sacramento State and UC-Davis.

Scores

Portland State 6
BYU 20

Colgate 20
Cal Poly 14

North Dakota
Utah

Western Oregon
Idaho State

Sacramento State
Idaho

Valparaiso
Montana

Portland State
Oregon State

College of Idaho
Northern Colorado

Eastern Washington
Texas Tech

Cal Poly
San Jose State

Montana-Western
Weber State

Southern Utah
Oregon

UC-Davis
San Diego State

Montana State
Washington State

Northern Arizona
Arizona

Big Sky Player of the Week

I guess we’ll wait and see!

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, Eastern Washington
Cole Reyes, North Dakota
Joe Protheroe, Cal Poly
Emmanuel Butler, Northern Arizona
John Santiago, North Dakota

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Eastern Washington
2. North Dakota
3. Northern Arizona
4. Cal Poly
5. Montana
6. Weber State
7. Montana State
8. Portland State
9. Southern Utah
10. Northern Colorado
11. Idaho State
12. UC-Davis
13. Sacramento State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Took me a while to get ready for college football, but now that the season is less than a week away I think I’m ready….

…to pick on North Dakota for the next four months.

 

SOCON: Week 1 Preview

The opening of the 2017 season is cause for much rejoicing for those of us who have been in FCS football withdrawal since last fall. But it’s here! Week 1! The slate for the opening week in the Southern Conference has everything: a conference game, an OOC game, lower Division games, and FBS foes. There are lots of questions about the conference teams this year. There are new coaches and new starters. How they will pan out is yet to be seen. Some of these questions may be answered this week, some may not.

(As always, hyperlinks in blue and all times eastern.  I usually put links to the game notes, but they are not out yet and I need to publish early.  However, I do have the links to the various schools football pages though.  I hope it is convenient for your use.)

Jacksonville at Mercer   Thursday 7PM (Mercer Site) (ESPN3)

Mercer begins its season against Pioneer league Jacksonville U. The big questions for the Bears will be can they replace their QB? Can they replace all the leadership lost to its first graduating class? In its three years in the SOCON Mercer has gone 7-11, but it was 4-4 last year. Not bad for a team beginning its 5th year of football this season. However, its transition is now over. It needs to start winning more of the close ones if it wants to be a force in the SOCON. It starts out the season with the Dolphins of Jacksonville University who went 5-5 last year. These teams have met only once before in 2013 during Mercers start up year when they played in the Pioneer League. Mercer won that match up 45-42.

Mercer will obviously be warming up its new QB in this game. It does get back junior running back Alex Lakes who was second in rushing for the Bears behind departed QB John Russ. Also returning are 4 of their top 5 receivers from last year including Sophomore TE Sam Walker and Junior WR Marquise Irvin, both of whom made all SOCON teams. They do have some holes to fill on the offensive line though.

The Bears defense also has some holes to fill from graduation. They return 5 starters from a squad that allowed 404 yards a game and 5.8 yards per play. They allowed opponents to convert on 3rd downs about 41% of the time. They logged 23 sacks last year and snagged 8 interceptions.

Mercer was second in the SOCON in turnover margin at +8 and held the ball 29:40 average per game. One area for improvement will be in penalties. They averaged a conference high 68 penalty yards a game with an average of about 7 penalties per game. A few of their drives in close games were sabotaged by those penalties last year.

Jacksonville has a fairly balanced offense with a tendency to run a little more often than pass. They averaged 425 yards a game last year and scored about 33 points a game. On Defense the Dolphins gave up 414 yards each game and 33.3 points. There is no doubt that the Dolphins will be outmatched by Mercer, but Jacksonville brings a ton of players back and could make a game of it if Mercer doesn’t have it game face on. Still, with lots of new faces starting, the Bears will want to make an impression and they should take this one on a hot Thursday night in Macon 38-10.

Kennesaw State at #17 Samford   Thursday 7PM EDT (Samford site) (ESPN3)

Samford was a passing machine last year. Devlin Hodges, now a Jr, racked up 4088 passing yards with nearly a 71% completion rate. He was the third leading passer in all of FCS last year. He also tossed just 8 interceptions in 12 games. Had Samford had any sort of running game they might have won 2-3 more games and gone further in the playoffs rather than losing in the first round. They totaled just 1161 yards on the ground for the year and had 7 games with under 100 yards rushing (with 4 games under 50 yards!). Their time of possession was under 25 minutes a game on average. Yup, their defense was on the field a lot last year.

On average they allowed opponents to rack up 421 yards a game last year. Those stats were a bit skewed by Miss State’s 669 yards, but Central Arkansas, UTC, and The Citadel all gained over 500 on them. They only held opponents to about a 40% third down conversion rate. They did record 24 sacks and 11 interceptions though. They get back most of their defense so if they can stay rested or have better depth, they might hold down opposing offensives a bit better this year.

On the flip side, they scored early and often. Their scoring drives usually took only 1-2 minutes. Hodges is dangerous on the short passes as well as throwing the deep ball. The Dogs lost a bit of their receiver corps, but they are still stacked. As mentioned, they had an atrocious time of possession which was the consequence of a mediocre 35% third down conversion rate. If they can get their running game in gear, and if Hodges continues to put up impressive numbers, they will get something special going this year.

Last year Kennesaw State’s low point came with an opening game loss to ETSU. Its high point was probably its victory over a downtrodden Furman team. The Owls went 8-3, although three victories came against sub-Div I opponents. It was a descent season for a second year program. Their spread option offense averaged 321 yards rushing and 159 yards through the air per game. They converted on third downs 49% of the time. Again, these numbers are probably padded a bit due to their opponents, but they definitely have something going on down in Georgia. On defense they allowed only about 321 yards a game, but they gave up well over 400+ yards per game against better competition in Furman, Gardner-Webb and Liberty. One thing the Owls obviously have going for them in their third year, is they did not lose very much talent from last year. Ball control will key for them in this game. They will need to keep chunking out first downs and keep the ball away from Hodges hot arm, and wear down the Samford defense in the process. If they can do that they might have a chance.

Samford needs to make a statement early. They pulled off a nice road victory early last year at Central Arkansas after destroying Mars Hill in week one. If they can record a convincing victory here, it will look much nicer come November, especially if they are on the bubble. Bulldogs win 37-24.

VMI at Air Force 2PM EDT  (VMI game notes) (ESPN3)

With only 4 offensive starters returning from last year’s 3-8 team, VMI will have a tough road to hoe. And that includes losing their standout QB AL Cobb. Luckily they have a descent RB returning in Sophomore Daz Palmer. They also have a fairly capable line backer corps coming back.

It looks like RSo Austin Coulling, who had some moderate playing time last year, will take over at QB. He has big shoes to fill even if the Keydets didn’t put up big numbers. The Keydets averaged just under 350 yards a game last year with about a 2-1 pass to rush yards. They were dead last in the SOCON in third down conversions at 33%. Worse yet, they were at minus 3 in turnover margin. One bright spot for the Keydets was their league leading low in penalties per game and penalty yards per game. They are disciplined.

Last year on defense, VMI held opponent to a decent 37% third down conversion rate. They did give up some big plays though. They gave up 430 yards a game on average including 186 on the ground and 244 through the air. They registered 14 sacks and 7 interceptions on the year. But they get back 7 starters including standout linebackers Alan Cratsenberg and Ryan Francis, and it should only get better for them with that experience returning.

Starting out with a road game at AF will be a tall task for this VMI team. The Falcons went 10-3 including a bowl victory last year. But opening games against FCS teams can sometime breed complacency for FBS teams. AF will win, but VMI will make them earn it. Look for AF to win 37-10.

Newberry at #14 The Citadel 6PM (The Citadel site) (ESPN3)

Normally I hate games against Div II opponents. There is everything to lose and not much to be gained. But this year, with the Bulldogs doing some reloading, this is a good time for a DIV II opponent.

Newberry was pretty good last year. They went 10-2 and lost in the first round of the Div II playoffs. They had a really high powered offense that scored 60 TDs. But they are even worse off than the Bulldogs in regard to graduation loses. The Bulldogs return only 3 offensive starters. But those three are pretty impressive including QB Dominique Allen and A-Back Cam Jackson. With The Citadel rotating players in and out all the time, many of the expected starters this year have had lots of previous playing time as well. There may be a few true freshmen that may also play a part. Time will tell. The OL will be the biggest question mark for the Dogs.

The Bulldogs defense was not hurt as bad as the offensive due to graduation, but they did lose a couple All Americans. They will still have Sr DB Kalik Williams, SOCON preseason Defensive Player of the Year, and 5 other starters returning from last year’s squad that held opponents to just 303 yards and 20.5 points a game. The Bulldog defense won quite a few games last year.

Another area of concern for The Citadel is the kicking game as it returns a sophomore for place kicking and will have a true freshman doing the punting. Kicking won a couple games last year as well.

As mentioned, this game comes at the right time. The Bulldogs will need to shake the kinks out of many aspects of the game. It is best that they get it done here, rather than against Samford or Wofford.   The Dogs may take a few series to get the rhythm down so execution may be a bit sloppy to start with, but they should take care of business in any event due to their depth and the constant grind of the option on Newberry’s defense. Expect the Dogs to roll 42-14.

Furman at #8 Wofford   7PM (Furman site) (Wofford site) (ESPN3)

Last year, The Citadel got off to any early start in the conference race by beating both Mercer and then Furman to start the season. This year Wofford plays Furman and then Mercer and hopes it can also get an early lead in the conference race. With Furman sporting a new coach and Wofford’s success in the playoffs last year, the Terriers clearly have high hopes for this game. The Terriers have beaten Furman twice in a row and have not allowed a Paladin victory in Spartanburg since 2006.

Wofford returns a bunch of folks on both sides of the ball. The offense will have some holes to fill in the backfield and offensive line, but they return Sr Brandon Goodson at QB.  They faced just a few QB issues last year, but it didn’t seem to hurt them too bad. Wofford averaged a respectable 280 yards a game on the ground last year and 63 through the air. They were more than good at converting third downs at 44% on the season. They also benefited from a turnover margin of +8. And as is to be expected for an option team, they held on to the ball quite a bit; over 34 minutes a game.

But what won them many games was their defense. They return 7 starters from last year’s squad that held opponents to just 287 yards a game. That was good enough to lead the SOCON and place them at #5 in all of FCS. They also held opponents to 17.1 points a game (SOCON #1, FCS #6). On average they held teams to 102 on the ground per game. They chalked up 18 interceptions and 30 sacks as well. There is no doubt that they will be a defensive powerhouse again this year.

Furman has nowhere to go this year but up. Suffering one of their worse seasons in a while, the Paladins get a new coach this year in Clay Hendrix. Hendrix, a 1986 Furman grad, finished up ten years at AF and was a former position and assistant coach at Furman for 19 years. He is coming home and the excitement in Greenville must be as high as it has been in years.

Furman started out last season with a meat grinder schedule and they must have hit a low point after starting 0-6 for the first time ever. They were not a bad team as far as talent goes. They just never seemed to gel very well. They return only 4 on each side of the ball, but they get all their special team players back.

Last year the Paladins lost their starting QB PJ Blazejowski in the third game against UTC. As the most experienced and capable QB available, It looks he will start for the Paladins this year. Furman averaged nearly 400 yards a game with the bulk coming through the air. How fast Blazejowski can get back in the groove may well determine how Furman’s season goes. Whether they can establish a credible rushing game also remains to be seen. They do return their leading rusher, Sr Antonio Wilcox who ran for 398 yards last year.

Last year on defense Furman allowed a respectable 373 yards and 27 points a game. They had 12 sacks and grabbed 7 interceptions. They were not bad and many of their games were close. Against the run, the Paladins allowed 192 yards a game. They allowed Wofford to rush for over 300 last year, but held The Citadel to just under 200 so they know how to defend the option. As always against the option, disciplined assignment play will be key for their defense. In this opening game, that may be a tall order.

Can the Paladins win this? Season openers can produce some crazy games, so yes they can. Anything can happen in this battle of the upstate, but Wofford is positioned nicely to win this game in their quest for the title. Look for a close game, but Wofford takes it 27-20.

Limestone at ETSU  7PM (ETSU site) (ESPN3)

The Bucs of ETSU are starting their third year back playing football. They had a couple nice victories last year against Kennesaw State and especially Samford. Those victories were due to extremely good ball control. With most of their team coming back ETSU will obviously benefit from that experience. They return 18 starters. But they are obviously still trying to find their way. Opening against Div II Limestone, in just their fourth year of football, may be just what they need to start the season.

Last year the Bucs were last in the SOCON in points per game and yards per game. But they were not last in most statistical categories. They are making progress and could very well make some waves. They had a good 39% third down conversion rate. They can also move the ball and hold onto it. They had a 31+ minute average for time of possession per game. They were +3 in turnovers. They had the highest red-zone scoring rate in the SOCON at 90%. But it should be pointed out that they did not have a huge number of trips into the red zone so that is a bit skewed. But they are obviously doing some things right.

Their offense will be led by Jr Austin Herink who went 161-270 last year with 8 interceptions and 1695 yards. Running back Jajuan Stinson, Jr, was ninth in the SOCON averaging 54 yards a game. They also have a kicker who went 12/16 in FGs with long of 43.

On Defense they have a couple standout folks like linebacker Dylan Weigel and Defensive lineman Jason Maduafokwa. Last year the Bucs allowed 380 yards a game and 28 points a game. They had 14 sacks and only 2 interceptions.

They should have no issues with Limestone. If they do, then their next game, against JMU, may be even more painful. Look for ETSU to roll in the first game in their new stadium, 41-3.

Western Carolina at Hawaii   11:59PM EDT (WCU site) (Hawaii Radio)

The Catamounts had a pretty disappointing season last year. That was unfortunate considering they have some good talent. Their biggest problem was defense. To be specific, they had none. That is a little harsh, but when you look at the numbers it becomes painfully obvious that something was wrong. They ditched their defense coach mid season, but the damage was probably done. Hopefully they can build one this year with their new defensive coordinator.

Last year WCU gave up 522 yards a game. That was last in the SOCON and next to last in FCS. Against the run, they gave up 309 yards a game, which was again last in the SOCON and last in FCS. They were better against the pass but not by much. They gave up 213 yards a game with just 9 sacks and 6 interceptions all year.  Their defense returns 7 starters so they should be better.

On the flip side, their offense was not bad last year. They will again be led by Tyrie Adams at QB. As a freshman last year he went 217/342 for 2568 yards (FCS #28) with 9 interceptions and 15 TDS. Not bad for a freshman. He is only going to get better and will be one of the premier QBs in the SOCON in short order. They also return Sr Detrez Newsome at running back. He piled up 1031 rushing yards (SOCON #2, FCS #23). The Cats averaged 387 yards a game with 234 through the air on average. Their offense remains fairly intact with 8 starters returning so they may have an impact on the SOCON race.

As with all teams making the trip to paradise, the time change and distractions may take its toll on them. Their time zone has always been Hawaii’s 12th man. The Rainbow Warriors went 7-7 last year including a bowl victory (the Hawaii Bowl…go figure). As a comparison for those who don’t follow them too closely, Hawaii beat Tenn-Martin last year 41-36 in week 3. If the WCU coaches can keep the Cats focused and acclimate them to the time change, WCU could give Hawaii some fits. It may still be tough for the Catamounts. Expect Hawaii to win 41-27.

Game Preview: Colgate @ #21 Cal Poly

Colgate at #21 Cal Poly – August 26th 7 PM ET, Alex G. Spanos Stadium San Louis Obispo, CA

TV: ESPNU

The Colgate Raiders open the 2017 season on national TV against #21 Cal Poly in an intriguing non-conference battle. This will be the second time (St. Mary’s 1999) in program history Colgate heads to California for a football game. Not surprisingly this is the first ever matchup between the two strong academic institutions. Colgate is coming off a glass half full/half empty 5-5 season while Cal Poly went 7-5 last year (5-3 in the Big Sky) and earned an at large bid to the FCS playoffs. The Mustangs surprisingly lost in the 1st round of the FCS playoffs to non-scholarship San Diego. A team Cal Poly beat by 22 points earlier in the year.

On paper, this game will come down running the ball and stopping the run. Cal Poly runs a variance of the traditional triple option offense while Colgate prefers the read option. The Raiders ranked first in FCS last year against the run (69.4 ypg) while Cal Poly was second in rushing offense (343.5 ypg). Both teams did suffer rather significant graduation losses in the trenches. However, there is not a lack of talent for either team. Colgate will rely on All-American DE Pat Afriyie to lead the way along the front 7. Cal Poly’s O-line will be led by 1st team BSC offensive lineman Harry Whitson and returning starter Joey Kuperman.

The Mustangs most dangerous weapon on offense is easily Joe Protheroe (1,334 yards 13 TDs in ’16). The senior fullback is a strong candidate for this year’s Payton Award. With junior Khaleel Jenkins taking over for 2nd team All-Big Sky QB Dano Graves, Protheroe figures to be even more of a focal point early in the year. Colgate has not faced a rushing attack like Cal Poly’s since the 2015 opener against Navy.

Colgate will also try to establish the run on offense. The return of RB James Hollond (732 yards 16 TDs in ’15) is a huge boost for the Raider offense. The talented RB missed the majority of last year after suffering a leg injury against Richmond. Like Cal Poly, the Raiders will be breaking in a new signal caller so having a proven commodity in the backfield is a great crutch. The Raiders possess an excellent offensive line so if Colgate can have some success passing, thus forcing Cal Poly to loosen up on D, Hollond should find some daylight. Neutralizing NT Augustino Elisaia (’16 2nd Team All-BSC) will be key for the Raider’s OL. The issue for both defenses last year was stopping the pass. Colgate is the more likely team to exploit, or at least try to exploit, the weakness despite Attwood’s and Scarfone’s inexperience.

This is the first of two regular season games between the Patriot League and Big Sky (EWU @ Fordham 9/9) this year. Because the conferences reside on opposite sides of the country rarely have they butted heads. Having two strong programs from the Big Sky and Patriot League face-off against each other is great for FCS. It would awesome if there were more of these intersectional battles!

Cal Poly is the slight favorite at home. As great as Colgate was against the run, and they were clearly awesome, Cal Poly is a different animal on offense with Protheroe leading the way. If the Mustangs can avoid mistakes they’ll sneak by the Raiders at home. However, if the Colgate QB settles in allowing the Raiders to have balance on offense and the defense proves they’re once again elite run stoppers the Raiders will be heading back to Hamilton a happy bunch.

Prediction: Cal Poly 27 Colgate 24

Patriot League Preview: Colgate

Colgate Raiders

2016 Record: 5-5 Overall, 4-2 in Patriot League

Head Coach: Dan Hunt 4th Season (19-17 Overall, 13-5 PL)

Last Patriot League Title: 2015

Last FCS Playoff Appearance: 2015

Key Returning Players

Offense: RB James Holland (Jr.), RB Keyon Washington (Sr.), WR Alex Greenawalt (Sr.), TE Nick Martinsen (Jr.), LT Ryan Paulish (Sr.)

Defense: DE Pat Afriyie (Sr.), LB Trent Williams (Sr.), CB Tyler Castillo (Sr.), FS Alex Wisniewski (Jr.), DB Abdu Damray-Swaray (So.)

2016 Review

Colgate entered 2016 with very high expectations given their run to the quarterfinals in the FCS playoffs the year prior. The strong finish in 2015 paved the way for the Raiders to be ranked in the Top 20 in the major 2016 preseason polls. They were also the odds on favorite to repeat as Patriot League champions. Unfortunately for Colgate, key injuries and a daunting schedule ultimately cost the Raiders a chance to live up to preseason expectations. Despite the obstacles, the Raiders managed to post a 5-5 record and more importantly a 4-2 league record. So while the 2016 seaon was in many ways a disappointment, the Raiders did manage to avoid the dreaded losing season.

The primary factor that allowed Colgate to finish with a .500 record was a pretty stingy defense (23.4 ppg allowed, 2nd in PL). The strength on “D” was unquestionably the rush defense which ranked #1 in FCS (69.4 ypg allowed). Led by All-American DE Pat Afriyie (21 TFL, 1st in PL & 4th nationally) and seniors Alex Campbell and Brett Fields, the defensive line caused opposing offenses trouble all season. As strong as Colgate was against the run, the pass defense was extremely shaky (274.7 ypg allowed, 7th in PL).

Offensively, QB Jake Melville battled through nagging injuries all year to post a pretty respectable year stat wise. His favorite target in the passing attack was senior John Maddaluna (54 rec 878 yards 5 TD). Melville lost his top running back James Holland against Richmond which was a rather significant blow to Colgate’s read option heavy offensive. Keyon Washington (155 carries 765 yards 5 TD) came in and did a solid job but without Holland and a nicked up Melville, the offense never truly got in sync all season.

2017 Offense

Key Returning Player to Watch: RB James Holland

Freshman to Watch: WR Tre Caine

Colgate’s primary question on offense heading into the season is at quarterback. Jake Melville was a 3 year starter who led the Raiders to the 2015 league title and a quarterfinals appearance in the playoffs. Replacing his arm, his legs and his leadership on and off the field will not be an easy task.

The odds on favorite to assume the starting role in 2017 seems to be junior Sage Attwood. Attwood’s only game action in 2016 came in mop up duty against Syracuse and Yale. Despite his limited experience, he fits the mold of a traditional Colgate QB. ESPN had the Florida native ranked as the 49th best duel-threat QB in the country coming out of high school. If Attwood were to struggle Coach Hunt will likely turn to sophomore and fellow Floridian Carmine Scarfone. Like Attwood, Scarfone was a highly touted duel-threat QB coming out of the Sunshine State.

Whoever starts the year under center will have the fortune of having a proven commodity at running back to lean on. James Holland returns for the 2017 season after suffering a leg injury that cut last year short. The redshirt junior rushed for 732 and 16 TDs (7th best in FCS) in 2015. Keyon Washington, who stepped into the starting role in Holland’s absence, might split time between RB and defensive back (played DB in ’15). Even if his role is limited on offense he’s proven to be more than capable of producing when called upon. With Washington’s role cut back, sophomore Alex Matthews and freshman Malik Twyman figure to see time in the backfield. All three backs are on the small side (5’9 and under) so it will be interesting to see what Colgate does in short yardage situations. Colgate averaged 206.6 yards (2nd in PL) on the ground in 2016.

On paper, the strength of Colgate offense should be the offensive line. 1st Team All-PL LT Ryan Paulish (6’4 295) anchors an experienced group that will start 4 seniors and 1 junior. Seniors Andy Simms (6’3 285) and Scott Hirshman (6’3 280) seem like a safe bet to nail down the guard positions. The versatile Max Hartzman (6’3 280) will start the year at center but can also play guard if needed. The lone junior starter will likely be Jovaun Woolford (6’5 290). While the line is not overly big, its ability to move and block in space is ideal of Colgate’s style of offense.

Next to quarterback, the biggest question for Colgate on offense resides at wide receiver. The Raiders leading receiver in 2016, Joe Maddaluna, has graduated. Senior Alex Greenawalt (32 rec 411 yards 1 TD) is the most likely WR to assume the role as the #1. Greenawalt (6’3) and his anticipated backup Thomas Ives (6’5) give the Raiders excellent size outside. Owen Rockett (5’9) should get the nod at the other starting position. The shifty Rockett will give defenses quite a bit of trouble in space. Freshman Tre Caine (6’0) has the potential to make some waves early on as well.

Tight end is in excellent “hands” with the return of 2016 Patriot League Second Team selection Nick Martinsen (26 rec 269 yards 3 TD). Sophomore Nick Diaco and Junior Brett Gasiorowski will also see time at Tight End.

Defense

Returning Player to Watch: LB Trent Williams

Freshman to Watch Trevor Thompson

The heart and soul of the Colgate defense is All-American defensive end Pat Afriyie. The senior has a legitimate NFL future. But before he heads to the greener pastures of the pro ranks he still has one more season to terrorize opposing offenses in college. Joining Afriyie upfront will be two new starters, junior NT Caleb Fell and sophomore DE Nick Wheeler. Both players saw limited time in 2016. With the loss of two seniors there figures to be some drop off against the run this year. Still, with a dynamic player like Afriyie garnering so much attention the defensive line should remain quite formidable. One player worth keeping an eye on is 6’1 315 pound reserve NT Cam Rohr. The sophomore could have an impact in short yardage situation.

One area for concern for head coach Dan Hunt and defensive coordinator Paul Shaffner is at linebacker where Colgate must replace 3 out of their 4 starters. Senior Trent Williams (23 solo tackles, 3.5 TFL 1 INT) is the most accomplished returning linebacker. Three juniors, Nick Alverez, T.J. Holl and John Steffen, will likely be the other starters in Colgate’s 3-4 alignment. While the starting LB group might be light on experience they more than make up for it in size with 3 out of the 4 anticipated starters going 230 pounds or more. One player who still has time to fill out is Freshman Trevor Thompson (6’2 215). The Kansas native has the talent to see time early on.

The Raider secondary might be strength of the defense which seems hard to believe given how porous the unit was in 2016. Colgate returns two preseason All-Patriot League cornerbacks in Tony Castillo and Abdu Daramy-Swaray which is a huge boost in a league that boosts some excellent quarterbacks. Ben Hunt IV saw significant time at free safety last year and should get the starting nod again this season. Alec Wisniewski finished 10th on the team in tackles in 2016 despite not starting a single game at strong safety. Given that, Wisniewski seems like a sure bet to assume the starting role this year. Depth at cornerback could be the lone concern in the defensive backfield. That’s why Keyon Washington has been getting reps at CB.

Special Teams

The Colgate special teams should be a strength in 2017. Punter Josh Cerra ranked 3rd in the PL (41.5) yards per punt as sophomore. Current sophomore Chris Puzzi is expected to take over field goal duties after doing a great job on kickoffs in 2016. Abdu Daramy-Swaray is an extremely dangerous returner. Don’t be surprised if freshman Tre Caine gets a chance in the return game.

2017 Outlook

Colgate enters 2017 with several talented individual players but a lot of inexperience on both sides of the ball. The quarterback position seems to be biggest question mark right now. Attwood and Scarfone have the resumes but neither possesses game experience to lean on. Given how much Colgate relies on their quarterback to make plays with their arm and legs, whoever emerges as the starter must produce at a high level while protecting the ball. The lack of a true #1 at wide receiver seems a bit concerning as well. Greenawalt has the potential to take over for Madddaluna but with an inexperienced quarterback there’s no certainty that will happen. Colgate will likely lean on the running game and their talented offensive line early in the year.

Defensively, Colgate should remain one of the top units in the league. However, it will likely take a step back stopping run given the graduation of so many key players along the front 7. Afriyie will see double teams consistently until someone else is able to command attention. LB Trent Williams has the potential to be that player. If good health is on Colgate’s side the secondary might be the top unit in the Patriot League with Costillo and Daramy-Swaray being two lock down corners. However, outside of the projected starters there’s a lack of depth and experience.

The schedule is once again brutal. Colgate opens up with 2016 playoff participants Cal Poly and Richmond before heading west on I90 to face FBS Buffalo. The Raiders do get league favorites Lehigh and Fordham home in back-to-back weeks in early October. Split those games and Colgate is almost certainly in the league mix down the stretch. While the schedule is extremely difficult the one positive is the fact that Colgate will once again play an 11 game schedule after going the Ivy League route last year.

2017 Schedule

8/26 @ Cal Poly 4 PM

9/9 Richmond 1 PM

9/16 @ Buffalo 6 PM

9/23 Furman 1 PM

9/30 @ Cornell 1:30 PM

10/7 Lehigh 1 PM

10/14 Fordham 12 PM

10/21 @ Holy Cross 12 PM

10/28 Bucknell 1 PM

11/11 @ Lafayette 12:30 PM

11/18 @ Georgetown 1 PM

2017 Projection: 6-5 Overall, 4-2 in Patriot League

2017 OVC Previews: Tennessee State

 

Tennessee State

2016 Record: 7-4 (4-3 OVC)

Key Players: DL Ebenezer Ogundeko, QB Treon Harris, WR Patrick Smith

 

The conference underachievers.  It seems lately that Tennessee State has had the talent and the roster to make a serious run at the FCS playoffs but somehow always manages to drop games against teams they should be beating handily.  Last season, for example, the Tigers had their best opportunity in years to capture a share of their first conference title since 1999 with a great roster and Jacksonville State absent from the schedule and the Tigers went on to underperform and finish the season with a 4-3 conference record.  Now, the 1-point loss to EIU in Charleston I can understand, but losing to Murray State and getting BLOWN OUT by Tech at home? Come on now. That said, this year’s edition of the Tigers looks even better than last year’s crew, however, I’m still skeptical.

 

Florida transfer Treon Harris will likely start for the Tigers this season

Despite the departure of All-American tackle Jessamen Dunker, the offense looks to be better this year due to the addition of Florida QB transfer Treon Harris.  Pair that with the best receiver in the league, Patrick Smith, and you have yourself duo.  On the offensive line, the Tigers will have to replace not only Jessamen Dunker, but also Kevin Kenton.  Having an experienced running back like Erick Evans should help alleviate some of the pressure of Treon Harris while the offensive line finds its new rhythm.  Another asset at Harris’ disposal is a deep pool of receiving threats.  Headlined by pre-season OPOY Patrick Smith, this edition of the Tigers receiving corps looks to be one of the deepest units in recent memory with 5 of 6 guys on the WR/TE two deep from last year returning.

 

Ebenezer Ogundeko will spend his senior year terrorizing opposing quarterbacks

On defense is where the Tigers really need to buckle down and build some continuity.   Having 8 starters returning, including preseason All-American Ebenezer Ogundeko, is a good place to start.  The Tigers may be the deepest defense in the OVC behind Jacksonville State as they only lost three guys off their two-deep lineup from last year to graduation.   The returning experience could work one of two ways for TSU: it could either mean that with an extra year of experience under their belt, the young defense could see more consistent performance this season OR it could just mean more of what we got last year and the Tigers will be giving up 30+ a game again.

 

The other bright spot for the Tigers is on special teams.  With All-American Lane Clark returning the Tigers have easily the best kicking game in the conference.

 

The Tigers will open their season at Georgia State on Thursday, August 31st at 6PM CST.

Patriot League Preview: Holy Cross

Holy Cross Crusaders

2016 Record: 4-7 Overall, 2-4 in Patriot League

Head Coach: Tom Gilmore 13th Season (70-76 Overall, 40-39 PL)

Last Patriot League Title: 2009

Last FCS Playoff Appearance: 2009

Key Returning Players

Offense: QB Peter Pujals (5th Sr.), RB Gabe Guild (5th Sr.), C James Murray (5th Sr.), LG Nick Piker (5th Sr.), WR Richie DeNicola (Jr.)

Defense LB Nick McBeath (Sr.), DT Jack Kutschke (Sr.), DT Teddy Capsis (Jr.), LB Andre Chevalier (Sr.), SS Chase Stratton (Sr.)

2016 Review

The 2016 season began with reasonably high expectations for Holy Cross given the return of star quarterback Peter Pujals and a talented set of skill players. The Crusaders were picked tied for 3rd (with eventual champion Lehigh) in the preseason Patriot League poll after posting a respectable 6-5 record in 2015. Much of the optimism revolved around Peter Pujals who entered his senior campaign as one of the most celebrated quarterbacks in FCS. The Illinois native was poised to own every record there was before his season was abruptly cut short by a serious leg injury he suffered against Dartmouth. While 2016 got off to a bumpy start prior to the Pujals injury, it basically hit a dead end once the star quarterback went down.

The biggest reason Holy Cross was unable to overcome the loss of a Pujals was a defense that gave up points in bunches (32.3 ppg, 6th in PL). Outside of LB Nick McBeath there was a lack of big time difference makers on the defensive side of the ball. The front 7 did a nice job at times with McBeath, Sr. Dewayne Cameron (13 TFL, 7 sacks) and Jr. LB Andre Chevalier leading the way. The secondary (6th in ypg and 7th in passing defense efficiency) was the main issue. Some of the struggles can be attributed to inexperience in the backend. By the time the season ended FS Luke Ford and CB Ron Millhouse were the only 2 seniors seeing significant time.

The 54-14 blowout loss to Fordham at Yankee Stadium was in some cruel way the perfect ending for a season that never got off the ground. There’s no doubt that did not sit well with the fiery Gilmore in the offseason. Motivation should not be an issue on Mount Saint James as the Crusaders finally turn the page to 2017.

2017 Offense

Key Returning Player to Watch: RB Gabe Guild

Freshman to Watch: TE Jake Fletcher

The safest assumption in the Patriot League is the 2017 Holy Cross offense will go as far as 5th year senior Peter Pujals takes them. There’s a good chance that if he stays healthy he will own every significant passing record at Holy Cross. Assuming his leg is fully healed; Pujals is more than capable of beating teams with his legs. That’s why he sits 3rd all-time in total offensive yards at Holy Cross. The leadership aspect can’t be overlooked either. Having started since his freshman year, Pujals has experienced just about everything football has to offer, good and bad.

This year his biggest test will be trying to overcome the graduation of Brendan Flaherty (59 rec 621 yards 4 TD) and Jake Wieczorek (55 rec 705 yards 5 TDs). The two senior wide receivers put together very solid 2016 campaigns despite having to deal with shaky at best quarterback play much of the time. Junior Richie DeNicola (49 rec 513 yards 4 TD) seems the most likely candidate to emerge as Pujals top target. Fellow juniors Jordan Montgomery and Martin Dorsey should also see an increased roll. Senior Darrius Lacy (14 rec 248 yards 0 TD) is a shifty threat that has the potential to really excel in the slot position. To provide depth at receiver, Gilmore and offensive coordinator Brock Stone opted to switch Blaise Bell from QB and Tate Beachley from RB. Freshman WR Tenio Ayeni from national power Allen, TX could emerge as a key contributor as the season moves along.

Peter Pujals will have a familiar face in the backfield with the return of 5th year senior running back Gabe Guild. Guild went down with an injury against New Hampshire last year and, like Pujals, was granted a medical redshirt. His return is huge given the lack of depth and overall production at the running back position recently. Even with Guild’s return, the running attack must improve (103.8 ypg 5th in PL) if Holy Cross wants to compete for the league title. Guild’s best year was in 2014 when he rushed for 588 yards and 5 TD. His production dipped as a junior. Since Guild can’t do it alone fellow senior Diquan Walker needs to build off of his 2016 season (411 yards 4 TD). If both remain healthy there’s no reason the duo can’t combine for a 1,000 yard season. Junior Miles Alexander provides some much needed depth.

The offensive line will be relying on 5th year seniors James Murray (Center) and Nick Piker (guard) to provide stability to what will otherwise be a green group. Last year’s 2-deep was littered with freshman and sophomores that will now be pressed into action. 6’8 320 pound senior Charles Steele will likely see time at tackle. Jackson Dennis and Joe Mattingly seem like the leading candidates to nail down the other tackle position. Guard will likely come down to Brett Broddy or Rory Costello. Whatever the combination turns out to be the line play must improve. Despite starting 5 seniors at times last year the unit struggled to control the line of scrimmage far too often. If the offense wants to take off in Pujals swan song the ground game must be able to assert itself. In order for that to happen the five guys in the trenches need become one of the top units in the Patriot League.

The final question on offense is at tight end. Lucas Nikolaisen (32 rec 244 yards 2 TD) graduated and his backup Jayke Simsheuser had 1 catch for 5 yards in 2016. If there’s one position on offense where a freshman could have an immediate impact it’s at tight end. 6’6 230 pound Josh Fletcher will likely have an opportunity to get on the field early in the year. Don’t be surprised if the Florida native is Pujal’s favorite red zone target by the time mid-October rolls around.

Defense

Returning Player to Watch: Andre Chevalier

Freshman to Watch: Kendrick Knight

The strength of the Crusader defense figures to be at linebacker. Preseason Patriot League All-League linebacker Nick McBeath (91 solo tackles, 8 TFL) is the unquestioned leader of the defense. He’s been an impact player on defense since his freshman year. McBeath is joined by another potential game changer at LB in Andre Chevalier. The third LB spot should come down to a pair of juniors. Either Jack Haddon or Ryan Brady will assume a starting role in 2017. Junior Kevin Bucceroni and two prized LB recruits from Georgia, Keiston Lowery and Kendrick Knight, are names that could emerge rather quickly.

The defensive line has the potential to be quite formidable due to an abundance of size defensive coordinator Mike Kashurba has to work with. Senior Jack Kutschke (Sr. 6’5 280) and junior Teddy Capsis (6’3 263) will once anchor the tackle positions in the 4-3 scheme. Backing them up figures to be senior Phil Zobrest (6’5 273) and juniors Neil Vorster (6’3 294) and Jake McArdell (6’2 289). The defensive end position seems to be a little more unstable. The loss of Dewayne Cameron will not be easily overcome. Sophomore Mark Ebo could slide into one of the end positions. 6’6 249 pound sophomore Dillon Hart has the frame to cause havoc on edge if he’s been able to get stronger since last year. Freshmen Noah Johnson and Jordan Jackson have the credentials and the size to see the field in spot duty. Both have the potential to be big time players down the road.

The big issue for the Crusaders on defense seems to be the secondary. The passing numbers against the Holy Cross defense in 2016 weren’t pretty. Part of that can be attributed youth but the trend going back a couple of seasons indicates a consistent struggle along the backend of the defense. Senior Alim Muhammad is likely to start at the one CB position. The other CB position could go to either Damion Baker or Akeem Walcott. Both saw significant time last year. Free safety seems a bit more unsettled with the graduation of Luke Ford. At 6’3 195 Chris Riley has the frame to take over the stalwart Ford. Chase Stratton returns at strong safety with Ahmad Tyler backing him up. Sophomore Alex Johnson and freshman Josh Hicks are two players that could play a significant role as the season progresses.

Special Teams

Senior A.J. Wells is expected to take over the place kicking responsibilities from Zane Wasp. Will McGrail or sophomore Cody Wilkinson might see time at punter if Gilmore does not want Wells handling all of the duties. Darrius Lacy seems primed to be the return specialist. But don’t be surprised if Richie DeNicola, Jon Jon Roberts and/or Jordan Montgomery get an opportunity as well.

2017 Outlook

When Peter Pujals announced he was returning for a 5th year the Holy Cross faithful in Worcester and all around New England rejoiced. After an extremely disappointing 2016 season the prospects for ’17 seemed to improve immediately. And while having Pujals back for a 5th year is a huge boost it’s been proven over time he can’t do it alone. In order for the passing game to really reach its potential someone has to emerge at WR. The loss of Flaherty and Wieczorek will be extremely difficult to overcome. Getting Guild back is a boost but he’s far from a stat monster. He needs someone else to emerge at RB when needed. The offensive line seems to be trending upwards which will help the ground game.

Despite Tom Gilmore’s background in defense his units at Holy Cross have been below average far too often. Last year’s edition was one of his worst. However, with McBeath leading the way and a front 7 oozing with size and depth it’s hard to imagine there’s not a significant improvement in 2017. The flaw on defense will likely remain in the secondary. There’s been an influx in athleticism in the last two recruiting classes but it might be a year or two away from really paying off.

The schedule does Holy Cross no favors. The Crusaders must deal with having 3 (@ UConn, @ Bucknell and @ Dartmouth) out of the first 4 games on the road. The lone home game during that span is against perennial FCS playoff participant New Hampshire. The season doesn’t end any easier than it starts for Holy Cross. Trips to Lehigh and Fordham will either cap a forgettable season or perhaps afford the Crusaders an opportunity to win the league.

2017 Schedule

8/31 @ UConn 7:30 PM

9/9 @ Bucknell 12 PM

9/16 New Hampshire 1 PM

9/23 @ Dartmouth 7 PM

9/30 Lafayette 1 PM

10/7 Monmouth 1 PM

10/14 @ Yale 1 PM

10/21 Colgate 12 PM

10/28 Georgetown 1 PM

11/4 @ Fordham 1 PM

11/11 @ Lehigh 12:30 PM

2017 Projection: 5-6 Overall, 3-3 in Patriot League

2017 FCS Kickoff Classic

The college football season kicks off 2017 with a great game on 26 August when the Jacksonville State Gamecocks battle against the Mocs of Chattanooga in what is being billed as the Guardian Credit Union FCS Kickoff Classic. The game will be played in Montgomery, Alabama. Aired nationwide on ESPN at 6:30 PM EDT, the game will be a great opportunity to showcase FCS football to the nation.

With both teams ranked in the final 2016 poll and all major 2017 preseason polls, the winner will get a quick boost to its march towards the 2017 playoffs. Both teams participated in the 2016 playoffs with Chattanooga (9-4) falling to Sam Houston State in the second round and JSU (10-2), the number three seed, falling to Youngstown State who went on to be defeated in the championship game by James Madison.

These teams have a long rivalry and this will be the 41st meeting dating back to 1904. The Mocs lead the series 26-14, but haven’t beaten JSU since 2011. In the four games since then JSU has won by a total of 15 points with two of the match ups going into overtime. It promises to be a good one.

UTC enters the 2017 season with a new head coach, Tom Arth. Arth was previously the head coach at Division III John Carroll where he led the Blue Streaks to one Ohio Athletic Conference Championship and three Div III playoff appearances in 4 years. Arth inherits a fairly loaded Moc team with veteran QB Alejandro Bennifield at the helm. The senior QB is listed on the preseason All Southern Conference Second Team. Overall, Chattanooga placed 10 on the preseason teams. On defense, one of the Moc’s perennial strengths, they return junior defensive lineman Isaiah Mack, senior linebacker Dale Warren and defensive back Lucas Webb. All three are listed on the preseason All SOCON First Team Defense.

Jacksonville State has gone undefeated in regular season games against FCS competition during the last three years. They have only lost 6 games total in the last three years and three were to FBS (LSU, Auburn in overtime, and Michigan St) competition. The other three losses…were to two teams who ended as the FCS Championship runner ups and the other game they lost was the 2015 Championship game to NDSU. They have been a formidable power the last few years even if they have not gone the distance. On defense the Gamecocks remain fully loaded with 9 starters returning, including three preseason All-Americans.  Their offense is a different story. With a new QB and offensive line to sort out, JSU may have some kinks to work out for this first game.

Last year Chattanooga had fairly balanced offense. No, it was nearly perfectly balanced. They ran for 2682 yards and passed for 2681. Without standout running back Derrick Craine this year, they may rely on Bennifield to pass a bit more. And he can do it. Last year he tossed 26 TDs in 13 games. Overall the Mocs had a pretty decent offensive output last season averaging 412 yards and 34 points a game. One area that could stand some improvement is in 3rd down conversions, where they still went almost 39%. They had a fairly good average time of possession at 32:21 a game and they know how to protect the ball with a +5 turnover margin. They only averaged about 5-6 penalties a game for an average of 53 yards.

Against a JSU defense that held opponents to 2.6 yards a rush, the Mocs may need to look to the air on offense. Overall last year the Gamecocks limited their opponents to only 275 yards of total offense a game. They also had 18 interceptions and recovered 7 fumbles. Overall they were +10 in turnovers. They held their opponents to a 23% third down conversion rate and with 38 sacks last year they showed they can be stingy on defense. They also held opponents to just 18 point a game.

On offense they tended to rely on the rushing game, or QB scrambles, gaining just over 3000 rushing yards last season. They passed for 2002 yards. With a new QB at the helm, the Gamecocks will likely turn to their backfield duo of Roc Thomas and UGA transfer Tramel Terry to lead the way. JSU averaged about 31 points a game and converted about 34% of their 3rd downs. Their time of possession averaged 31:26. One area that could stand some work is penalties considering they racked up about 10 a game averaging 90 yards.

JSU will face a strong Mocs defense. Last year Chattanooga held opponents to only 130 rushing per game. That is no mean feat playing in the SOCON. Overall they held opponents to just 294 yards and 19.6 points a game. They had 38 sacks and held opponents to about a 34% 3rd down conversion rate.

Special teams is a bit on an unknown as both UTC and JSU will both be starting new place kickers and replacing both their punt returners and kickoff specialists.

This game should be a defensive struggle with whoever makes the first mistake ending up the loser. However, it is a new year with new players and in UTC’s case, new coaches. Anything is possible and Chattanooga will definitely be looking to end its 4 game skid against JSU. Both teams have high aspirations and both teams know that a victory here could go a long way in securing a playoff bid and possible seed come November. On paper, it looks like a toss-up, but Chattanooga may be ready to avenge those 4 losses. I predict the Mocs take it, 31-28.

2017 OVC Previews: Jacksonville State

 

 

2016 Record: 10-2 (7-0 OVC)
Key Players: DL Darius Jackson, S Marlon Bridges, RB Roc Thomas

The Gamecocks are coming off a 2016 campaign that ended abruptly in the Second Round of the FCS playoffs at the hands of Championship Runner Up Youngstown State. The Gamecocks won their third straight OVC title and moved to 23-0 in OVC play under Head Coach John Grass. Last season also raised some concerns regarding the offense and the discipline of the team overall that will need to be addressed as we enter the 2017 season.

JSU runningback Roc Thomas jukes past a Coastal Carolina defender

Arguably the biggest hurdle John Grass has faced in his tenure at JSU is replacing quarterback Eli Jenkins. Jenkins served as the catalyst that allowed Grass’ spread option offense to click over the past three years and now that he’s gone Grass will need to look toward either QB Bryant Horn or QB Kendrick Doss to lead the way for an offense that will also be without Josh Barge and has suffered heavy losses on the offensive line with three starters gone. The driving force for this years’ offense will likely be running back duo Roc Thomas and Tramel Terry. Thomas and Terry should be a provide a headache to opposing DCs as both backs are excellent at catching the ball out of the backfield as well as running between the tackles. The other big question mark on offense is the receiving corps. With Krenwick Sanders coming back from his injury last year and Demontez Terry, Jamari Hester, Shaq Davidson, and Kevin Spears all returning, the unit has a lot of talent and potential to be great. However, last year was not a year where the passing game excelled and we will have to wait and see whether Horn/Doss is able to find the groove with his receivers that offense was lacking last season.

 

Darius Jackson celebrates after getting a game winning sack against Coastal Carolina

On defense, it’s an ENTIRELY different story. For the past three years under Grass we have seen the offense breaking just about every record in the book but it seems that has changed. This unit looks to be among the best to have ever worn a JSU Gamecock uniform. With 9 starters returning, 6 of them All-Conference, the defense is going to be what wins JSU games this year. With the headliners like Preseason All-American and OVC Preseason DPOY Darius Jackson, the defense has plenty of depth. For the past couple seasons the Gamecocks have been giving everyone on the DL three or so deep has been getting significant game time and it’s been paying off in giving the Gamecocks one of the deepest defensive lines in the country.

 

If the Gamecocks can fix their offensive issues, penalty problems, and mediocre kicking game they may be poised to make a deep run into the FCS playoffs. If they can’t fix it they may end their season in similar fashion to last year.

The Gamecocks will open their season in Montgomery against Chattanooga on ESPN. The game will be on Saturday, August 26th at 5:30 CST.

Southern Conference Preview

Well it’s time to review the upcoming season and the battle for the Southern Conference. Overall, it is a wide open race with the conference title up for grabs. Lots of losses to graduation and some new coaching faces may level the playing field even more than it has been the last few years. Last year, 16 out of the 36 conference games were decided by one possession. In the last four years there have been 54 one possession games out of 124 conference games played. That’s over 43% of the games!

With the reigning SOCON Champion The Citadel facing some serious losses to graduation and Chattanooga with a new head coach, Wofford and Samford will be chomping at the bit to claim the title. With all four of those teams making the FCS playoffs last season, they will all be hungry for a return trip. Western Carolina and especially Furman are looking to turn things around after sinking a bit. Mercer is looking to maintain their intensity after graduating its first class after returning to Division I football. VMI will have a tough road as graduation decimated their offense. ETSU, in its third season back playing football after a 12 year hiatus, will try and build on its stunning victory in the final game of last year over a playoff bound Samford.

The schedule will obviously play an important role to see who can build momentum as the season progresses. Last years champ, The Citadel, opened the 2016 season with two conference victories against Mercer and Furman. This year Wofford will play those same two teams to open the season with Furman up first. Always a grudge match, Wofford and Furman have split the last 12 games with neither team winning more than 2 in a row. As a quarterfinalist last year in the FCS playoffs, Wofford was a dark horse. How they will perform with the spotlight on them early on may reveal a lot.   After it opens with two SOCON games Wofford gets a bye week before facing Gardner-Webb at home. It then gets Presbyterian on the road, WCU at home, The Citadel in Charleston, Samford at home, at ETSU and UTC at home. It finishes off at VMI and USC where it has giving the Gamecocks fits in the past. This is a pretty good schedule if the Terriers can keep it rolling.

The Citadel has what is probably the best schedule it could hope for to start out the 2017 campaign in light of its losses, including three All Americans. It opens against Div II Newberry, a Presbyterian team that went 2-9 last year and ETSU still trying to find its way. This opening schedule will be more than adequate to shake out the kinks of its new starters before it meets Samford at the end of September in Birmingham in a game that could decide the fate of both teams. It has a bye week before Samford. It gets Mercer and Wofford at home before traveling to UTC. After playing VMI and WCU at home, it goes on the road to Furman and reigning FBS Champion Clemson.

Chattanooga can make a huge splash on the FCS map when it meets Jacksonville State in the Montgomery Classic on 26 Aug to kick off the 2017 season. The Mocs have not beaten JSU since 2011, but the last 4 games have been decided by a total of 15 points. A victory here could go a long way in giving the Mocs confidence for the 2017 season.   They follow it up by a paycheck game against LSU and a home opener against a good Tenn-Martin team. Their first four SOCON games are VMI, WCU, Furman, and Mercer. Depending on how they do against JSU, they could well be 6-1 overall going into The Citadel, Samford and Wofford beginning in late Oct. They finish with ETSU at home.

Samford has high hopes this year. After winning a share of the crown in 2013, they have consistently underachieved. With one of the best quarterbacks in Div I football at the helm, Junior Devlin Hodges, they may be set to finally get it done again this year. With a 71% completion percentage, 4088 yards, and 36 TDs, and only 8 interceptions last year, Samford could be the team to beat for the conference title if he repeats his performance. Samford opens with Kennesaw State and a decent Div II team in West Alabama.   After a paycheck game in Athens against Georgia, which might just be interesting, Samford begins SOCON play at WCU. It does get The Citadel at home next and it also gets Chattanooga and Furman at home later on. It does have to play Wofford in Spartanburg though, but it has a bye week prior. Not a bad schedule to make a run at the title.

Whether Furman can turn things around under their new head coach, Clay Hendrix, might be shown in its early match up against Wofford. It also gets a hapless Elon at home and then goes on the road for NC State and a good matchup against Colgate to start its season. It is a lot better schedule than last year’s meat grinder that started Furman’s fall to unheard of depths. A 2-2 start would not be unrealistic for the Paladins. While it gets Mercer and The Citadel at home, it goes on the road for UTC and Samford for its last game of the regular season.

Regardless if Mercer maintains its characteristic tenacity in conference games (it has had 17 one possession games in the 22 SOCON games it has played!) it may be a tough year for the Bears. How Mercer does, without the energy of its first team to graduate in decades, should also be of interest. While they no doubt had a pipeline of new and capable players, the loss of the synergy and leadership of the first new team may impact them.   After opening against Jacksonville of the Pioneer League, it gets Wofford at home and then goes to Auburn, the first of its two FBS games this year. The other is Alabama to close the regular season. It has to travel to Charleston, Greenville, and Cullowhee, but it does get UTC and Samford at home. I might be making too much of it graduating its first class, but I think the loss of QB John Russ will be apparent. He was a good solid QB that kept them in games. I have to go back again to how close some of the Mercer games have been because I think that it is impressive. It lost 10 of those 17 one possession games it had. And in 6 of those 10 losses, they lost by a total of 10 points. Talk about being close.

WCU, with some new faces on the coaching staff, will try and regain some winning ways. It has a pretty good QB in Sophomore Tyrie Adams. If it finds a defense as well, then it make makes some waves. The Catamounts start off with a fairly decent road game. Who am I kidding, they play Hawaii, it’s a great road trip. If my Bulldogs ever do it, I am there. Hawaii is just a so so FBS team. Their biggest advantage is mother nature and the inevitable adjustment to the time change for the players. I can see it being closer than expected if they fix their defense a bit, but a blow out could happen as well. They then get Davidson at home and that should give them some confidence, if they do not have a Hawaii hangover. After traveling to Gardner-Webb, they get a meat grinder with Samford at home, and road games at Chattanooga and Wofford. Later on they travel to VMI and The Citadel and get Furman and Mercer at home. Then they have to finish at UNC. Not the best of schedules but they could pull the odd upset. They have no bye week due to the Hawaii game. How they do in Hawaii, and against G-W will be tell a lot as to how they have ramped up their defense.

VMI opens at AF, hosts Div II Catawba, and goes to Robert Morris. Not a bad start to shake out those new offensive starters. It then gets UTC at home, at Mercer, Samford at home, at Furman, WCU at home and then goes to Charleston for the Military Classic of the South.  It finishes at ETSU and gets Wofford at home to end the regular season. It really is not a bad schedule overall. It just comes at the wrong time for a VMI team that is rebuilding. Their defense may keep them in games though.

ETSU wasn’t that bad last year. In fact, they had bookend victories to their season that were downright good: Kennesaw and Samford. This year they start with a bad Div II Limestone and it should give them confidence before they travel to reigning FCS champ JMU the next week. After facing The Citadel and Mercer at home they travel to Furman and then get Robert Morris at home. During the rest of their season, they travel to WCU, Samford and UTC. They also get Wofford and VMI at home. It is very hard to measure them yet with only one year of conference play under their belt. In their victories, ball control was the key. They have decent players but not much star quality yet. They have a pretty decent OOC schedule considering their team’s development. The meat grinder than is the SOCON will take its toll on them though.

With the schedule laid out, I have to give the nod to Wofford and Samford as having the best path to the title. For Wofford, if they claim two quick opening conference victories, that will position them nicely, just as it did for The Citadel last year. When looking at Wofford playing the favorites, with Samford and UTC at home and only The Citadel on the road, where they have had success in the past, Wofford will need to stumble not to at least claim a share of the title. I think they might stumble though. Samford has a nice schedule as well with only Wofford on the road, when considering the favorites. But then again, this is the SOCON and anything can happen, just ask Samford about playing ETSU last year. In the end, I think Samford may finally put something together this year.

All that said, here are my predictions for the 2017 SOCON race.  But I am sure that once the whistle blows, all bets are off and it’s best we all get familiar with the tiebreaking rules.

 

Samford        9-2    7-1

Wofford        8-3    6-2

The Citadel   8-3    6-2

UTC               7-4    6-2

Furman          6-5    5-3

WCU              4-8    3-5

Mercer           3-8    2-6

VMI                3-8    1-7

ETSU               2-9   0-8

Patriot League Preview: Lafayette

Lafayette Leopards

2016 Record: 2-9 Overall, 1-6 in Patriot League

Head Coach: John Garrett, 1st year

Last Patriot League Title: 2013

Last FCS Playoff Appearance: 2013

Key Returning Players

Offense: RB DeSean Brown (Sr.), WR Matt Mzarek (Sr.), WR Rocco Palumbo (Sr.), TE Dylan Wadsworth (Sr.), OT Cam Smith (Sr.), C Kevin Zataveski (Jr.)

Defense: DT Demitrius Breedlove (So.), DE Beau Bosch (Sr.), LB Brandon Bryant (Sr.) STRK Jerry Powe (Jr.), CB Phillip Parham (Sr.)

2016 Review

To say last year was a bumpy road for Lafayette would be an understatement. The Leopards posted their 7th straight losing season in 2016. A little over a week after Lafayette’s 45-21 loss to rival Lehigh long time head coach Frank Tavani resigned. By most accounts it was a forced resignation.

Tavani took over a Leopard program in 2000 that to be frank, was in the dumps. By the time Y2k arrived the Lafayette administration had all but forgot about the team and the facilities. Despite the obstacles Tavani guided Lafayette to a winning record in 2002 (their first since 1993). Two years later Lafayette went 8-3, captured the Patriot League Championship and the automatic bid to the FCS playoffs. It was the first playoff appearance in program history. The Leopards would go on to 3-peat by winning the title in ’05 and ‘06. Each time they earned a trip to the postseason. After an 8 win season in 2009 the wheels began to fall off. Lafayette fell all the way to 2-9 in 2010. 2011 (4-7) and 2012 (5-7) weren’t much better. The Leopards went 0-5 in the OOC portion of their schedule in 2013 but caught fire in November. They upset then #5 Fordham and #17 Lehigh in back-to-back weeks to capture the outright league title with a 5-6 record. For whatever reason Lafayette was not able to capitalize on the momentum that was gained from the 2013 championship. For a multitude of reasons the losing more than winning trend continued in 2014. The lone highlight that season would be a historic win over Lehigh at Yankee Stadium. Ultimately, a 9 and 10 loss season in 2015 and 2016 respectively proved to be Tavani’s undoing. During his time on College Hill the Leopards won 4 Patriot League Titles and saw their facilities become among the best in FCS.

The 2016 season got off to  a positive start for Tavani and his team. The Leopards beat Central Connecticut State 24-10 in New Britain to open the year. The win broke a 7 game losing streak dating back to 2015. Unfortunately, what ensued after the win over CCSU was another 7 game losing skid. Lafayette would finally get back in the win column by taking down Georgetown in late October. The positive mojo was sort lived as the season would conclude with blowout losses to Colgate and Lehigh. Subpar play from the QB position along with a leaky offensive line and youthful defense were major reasons for the 2-9 record. The loss of 2015 1st Team All-PL LB Brandon Brant during the fifth game of the year really depleted the LB corps. He’s expected to be back to 100% for the start of the 2017 campaign.

Despite the poor record there were some positives from an individual standpoint. Dylan Wadsworth (42 rec 591 yards 2 TD) had an excellent season at TE. Junior WR Matt Mzarek (71 rec 755 yards 8 TD) was the team’s leading WR and seems destined for a big 2017 season. Beau Bosch, Jerry Powe and Phillip Parham continued to excel on the defensive side of the ball despite the overall struggles of the unit.

2017 Offense

Key Returning Player to Watch: OL Tanner Smith

Freshman to Watch: QB Brycen Mussina

The first order of business for new head coach John Garrett (OC at Richmond in 2016) is to determine who his starting QB will be. Senior Josh Davis is the only returning signal caller with significant playing time. Davis curiously was switched to WR last year but Garrett has since wisely returned the California native back to his traditional position. If Garrett wants a completely fresh start freshman Brycen Mussina could be the ideal candidate. Brycen is the son of 5x MLB All-Star pitcher Mike Mussina. Given that nugget of information one must assume the 18 year old from Montoursville, PA has some serious arm talent.

Whoever assumes the starting QB role will have two of the best pass catchers, WR Matt Mzarek and TE Dylan Wadsworth (Preseason 1st Team All-PL) in the Patriot League to work with. Rocco Palumbo (22 rec 331 yards 1 TD) and Joey Chenoweth (37 rec 371 yards 2 TD) provide excellent depth at WR position. If the QB play improves in 2017 the Leopards should have one of the best passing offenses in the league. It’s not an exaggeration to suggest the Leopards possess the best set of receivers (Wadsworth included) in the league.

While Lafayette seems set at WR, the running back “situation” remains a work in progress. DeSean Brown figures to be the day 1 starter but anything beyond that is likely up in the air if the senior does not improve upon his 2015 production (341 yards 3.6 ypr 3 TD). Diminutive Junior C.J Amill should continue to see time as the change of pace back. Beyond that it appears to be a flip of a coin. The issue Garrett and his staff faces is a lack of depth at RB. There simply isn’t much talent in the junior and senior classes. The most likely freshman to see time is Selwyn Simpson. The 6’2 205 pounder already has the physical tools needed to succeed at the D1 level.

The third area of concern is the offensive line. To be frank its performance was subpar last year. Garrett will be looking for it to become quicker and nastier. Far too often last year the line play was slow and soft. One big reason for Lafayette’s downfall in recent years has been its sluggish OL play. With 3 (Cam Smith, Kevin Zataveski, Logan Greiser) of the 5 starters back and several talented sophomores and juniors on the two deep there’s potential for a significant turnaround. The return of Tanner Smith (9 starts in 2015) can’t be overlooked either if he’s fully healthy. New Offensive Line Coach Gordon Sammis will certainly have his work cut out figuring out the right combination.

Given Garrett’s experience coaching offense there’s no doubt the pieces are in place to improve upon the paltry 19.6 ppg the unit averaged in 2016

Defense

Key Returning Player to Watch: DE Beau Bosch

Freshman to Watch: LB Major Jordan

By most metrics (35 ppg allowed, 251 rushing ypg allowed, 462 total ypg allowed all worst in PL ) the 2016 Lafayette defense was terrible. The lone bright spot was the pass defense (178.9 ypg allowed) which ranked 1st in the league. The perplexing part about the poor numbers is the amount of individual talent on the defensive side of the ball. And it’s only going to be better in 2017. The return of Brandon Bryant at LB immediately makes the run defense better. His intangible impact will also be significant.

Like Bucknell, Lafayette’s starting linebackers are excellent. The return of Bryant overshadows just how good Jerry Powe (37 solo tackles, 9.5 TFL in ‘16) has been at the striker position. At 6’1 210 Powe is big enough to play in the second level of the defense while possessing the athleticism to defend the back end if needed. Then there’s senior Michael Root who led the team in total tackles (85) last year. Root is the most physical of the 3 linebackers. Rob Hinchen started 6 games at the WILL position (appeared in all 11) for the injured Bryant will become a key reserve. The senior from New Jersey gives Lafayette depth at LB that no one else in the league has.

With the top two corner backs returning the Leopard secondary should once again be the strength of the defense. Phillip Parham has developed into one of the best corner backs in the Patriot League. It would not be a surprise to see the senior show up on numerous postseason All-League Teams. Sophomore Eric Mitchell (31 solo tackes, 1 INT) returns at the other CB position. The safety positions seem up for grabs heading into the fall. Yasir Thomas is likely headed back to offense after providing some emergency work at safety late last year. With Thomas potentially out of the picture T.J Jones and Trent Crossan could be in-line to take over at the safety positions. Izaiah Avent and Colin Thorne should also be in the mix.

The key to Luke Thompson’s defense improving in 2017 is the defensive line. They got run over and around last year but opposing offensive lines and running backs. Like the Leopard OL, the units must get more physical and quicker off the ball. DE Beau Bosch (19 solo tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) was the one consistent force in 2016 despite facing numerous double teams throughout the season. Sophomore Demetrius Breedlove should be more effective now that he’s accustomed to battling D1 offensive linemen. Getting 5th year seniors Matt Rothrock (6’2 280) and Andy Labudev (6’3 270) back will be a huge boost for the Leopards. Another potential impact defensive lineman is Syracuse transfer Tony Giudice (6’2 275).

While production is still to be determined there’s no question Lafayette enters 2017 in far better shape along the defensive line than they did in 2016.

Special Teams

Junior Jacob Bissell is locked into FG and kickoff duties. Bissell has started since his freshman year. Freshman punter Michael Turk (nephew of former NFL punter Matt Turk) seems likely to snag the starting duties. Punt and kickoff returns seem to be in good hands with C.J. Amill and Joey Chenoweth seeing the bulk of the action. Both are extremely dangerous in the open field.

2017 Outlook

In general, the 2010’s (7 straight losing seasons, 2-5 record against rival Lehigh) have not been kind to Lafayette football. John Garrett inherited a program that was at its lowest point moral wise in nearly two decades. Not since the “vote” happened in the late 90’s were Leopard fans as down in the dumps as they were at conclusion of last year’s 45-21 blowout loss to Lehigh. Then Frank Tavani resigned and suddenly there was once again reason for optimism in Easton. What the Garrett regime will entail is anyone’s guess. He still has to deal with an administration that considers football something of a nuisance. With that said, it’s hard not to be optimistic about Lafayette’s chances to once again be a factor in the Patriot League moving forward. They might not be as consistent as Fordham and Lehigh, but the days of 9 and 10 loss seasons will be a distant nightmare.

If Garrett can figure out the QB and offensive line the Leopards have a great chance to be one of FCS’s biggest turnarounds in 2017. The added depth along the defensive line should provide immediate improvement against the run. With the talent at LB and two lock down corner backs in place the defense should be capable of keeping Lafayette in games until the offense finds their legs.

Garrett gets no breaks with the out of conference schedule. The first year coach will be making trips to Ancient 8 power Harvard and regular CAA contender Villanova. There’s also home game against defending Ivy League champion and Lafayette kryptonite Princeton. Then there’s the Leopards first opponent of the year, Monmouth. The Hawks beat Fordham and Lehigh last season. With that in mind, Lafayette has a great opportunity to set a positive tone early (and send a message to the rest of the league) with a win in the season opener.

2017 Schedule

9/2 @ Monmouth 3 PM

9/9 Sacred Heart 6 PM

9/16 @ Villanova 6 PM

9/23 Princeton 6 PM

9/30 @ Holy Cross 1 PM

10/7 Fordham 3:30 PM

10/14 @ Harvard 1 PM

10/21 Bucknell 3:30 PM

11/4 @ Georgetown 2:00 PM

11/11 Colgate 12:30 PM

11/18 @ Lehigh #153 12:30 PM

2017 Projection: 4-7 Overall, 2-4 in Patriot League