The FCS Wedge

Patriot League Preview: Fordham

Fordham Rams

2016 Record: 8-3 Overall, 5-1 in Patriot League

Head Coach: Andrew Breiner 2^nd Season (8-3 Overall, 5-1 PL)

Last Patriot League Championship: 2014

Last FCS Playoff Appearance: 2015

Key Returning Players

Offense: QB Kevin Anderson (5^th Sr.), RB Chase Edmonds (Sr.), WR Austin Longi (Jr.), LT Anthony Coyle (Sr.), C Ben Hartman (Jr.), RT Garrett Donaldson (Sr.)

Defense: NG Nick Angeli (Sr.), DT Manny Adeyeye (5^th Sr.), DE Ty Green (Sr.), LB Max Roberts (So.), SS Antonio Jackson (Jr.), FS Cale Hamm (Sr.)

2016 Review

After three straight FCS playoff appearances the Rams came up just of making it a 4^thconsecutive trip to the postseason in 2016. Despite notching 8 wins, Fordham was one of the first teams left out of the field of 24. A porous defense (30.1 ppg allowed) cost the Rams greatly in key losses to league champion Lehigh and Big South member Monmouth. The Rams gave up 52 (Navy), 42 (Monmouth) and 58 (Lehigh) points in their 3 losses. The potent Ram offense (40.1) simply couldn’t do it alone in Andrew Breiner’s first year as head coach.

Fordham’s offense was once again led by consensus 1^st Team All-American RB Chase Edmonds (1,799 yards 19 TDs). The sensational Fordham running back finished 4^th in the Payton Award voting after ending the year second in FCS in rushing. Junior QB Kevin Anderson (272 ypg 27 TD 4 INT) also contributed in a big way. His favorite target was the diminutive but ultra-elusive Austin Longi. The shifty sophomore receiver had a breakout year for the Rams who suffered heavy graduation losses at the position following the 2015 season. The offensive line once again performed very well for the Rams.

While 8 wins would be cause for celebration at most places, 2016 had to feel like a bit of a disappointment on Rose Hill. Despite the coaching change, Fordham entered the season with high expectations given the amount of talent Joe Moorhead left behind. The Rams will certainly have a chance to make up for 2016’s disappointment. This year they get EWU and Lehigh at home which gives the Rams two great chances to solidify their 2017 postseason odds. Fordham has had the Lehigh game circled since last year’s debacle in Bethlehem.

2017 Offense

Key Returning Player to Watch: WR Austin Longi (Jr.)

Freshman to Watch: Hunter Harris

The Fordham offense should once again be one of the top units in FCS. Chase Edmonds is arguably the best player in the subdivision and 5^th year senior QB Kevin Anderson (Marshall transfer) is one of the top players at his position in FCS. Combine that with an experienced offensive line and it’s hard to imagine Fordham playing less than 12 games this year. The key will be developing depth at wide receiver. The group has the potential to be very good but with the season about to start it’s not nearly as deep or proven as previous editions.

What the Rams do return at wide receiver is their #1, Austin Longi. Despite being 5’8 150 pounds, the junior was the team’s leading receiver with 774 yards and 6 TDs. Fordham’s 3^rd leading receiver in 2016 was Longi’s backup in the slot, sophomore Corey Caddle (32 rec 368 yards 4 TDs). Two inexperienced juniors, Jordan Allen (6’2 190) and Jonathan Lumley (6’4 187), are expected to join Longi in the starting line-up. Allen and Lumley possess the size to be dangerous weapons but time will tell how well they gel with Anderson. The veteran QB will certainly give them a chance to succeed at a high level. Another pair of juniors, Noah Nix and Andrew Prince, will likely see significant time as well. Freshman Hunter Harris comes to Fordham with an excellent resume. He could see the field by the time league play starts.

In addition to the experienced skill players, Fordham returns a veteran and talented offensive line. The Ram O-line features two preseason 1^st Team All-Patriot League selections, (T) Andrew Coyle & (C) Ben Hartman, and 3 year starter (T) Garrett Donaldson. Joining those three will be Anthony Solano and Dominic Lombard at the guard positions. Due to the amount of experience returning, there isn’t a lot of depth so that is a bit of a concern should injuries strike. Bad thoughts aside, this should be an excellent offensive line.

The final piece to the “O” puzzle will be figuring out the TE positon. With the graduation of Phazahn Odom there’s a large hole, literally and figuratively, in the Fordham offense. Isaiah Searight and Andrew Force are the two most likely candidates to battle for the starting role.

There’s no doubt Fordham is capable of surpassing last year’s 40 ppg average. The Ram offense will be scary good.

Defense

Key Returning Player to Watch: DT Manny Adeyeye (5^th Sr.)

Freshman to Watch: LB Glen Cunningham

Much like Lehigh, Fordham’s defense must improve if the Rams want to maximize their elite “O”. Their first priority must be improving the rush D (186 ypg 5^th in PL). The unit was run over and around for much of last year. The defensive line was a soft spot and Ram opponents exploited it with regularity. The pass defense ranked 3^rd in the league in yards against (192) but did struggle when facing the more potent passing attacks on their schedule.

Getting a fully healthy Manny Adeyeye at DT should pay immediate dividends against the run. The 5^th year senior has been plagued by injury during his career but has the potential to finish out his time at Fordham in a big way. He’s an All-league type talent if stays on the field. Joining him along the D-line will be returning starters Nick Angeli at NT and Ty Green (4 TFL, 2.5 sacks) at DE. Senior Jonathan Dimon is expected to start at the other DE spot. Depth will be Fordham’s biggest nemesis in the trenches. There’s virtually no experience beyond the starting unit. Defensive coordinator John Bowes will likely use two freshman (Sawyer Schwarcz & Ellis Taylor) and two sophomores (John Piccinich & Michael Ware) in the rotation.

The linebacker unit will be anchored by sophomore Max Roberts and junior Noah Fitzgerald. The duo has the potential to be really good by the time they leave the Bronx. Roberts is coming off an excellent freshman year where he tied for team lead in sacks (4.5) and tied for second in TFLs (9.5). Fitzgerald led FCS in fumbles recovered and had 3.5 TFLs. Robert Menyah is expected to start at the hybrid “star” position. The junior will play near the line of scrimmage when needed but is more adapt at dropping back into coverage. Vincent Sansone (Sr.) and freshman Glen Cunningham will see time at the two traditional linebacker positions.

The secondary returns a plethora of experience and talent. Senior Caleb Ham is a preseason 1^st team All-PL selection at FS. Antonio Jackson (44 solo tackles 2 sacks 2 INTs) doesn’t get the notoriety as his secondary mate Ham but he might be just as good. If there’s some concern in the secondary it’s at cornerback. Dylan Mabin and Jesse Bramble must improve in coverage if the defense wants to take another step. If one or both struggle juniors James Biggs-Frazier and Bryce Petty will get an opportunity play beyond obvious passing downs.

Special Teams

Fordham’s special teams have to be a major concern for head coach Andrew Breiner. The Rams lost their punter, place kicker and top returner to specialist. All three were very good so finding their replacements will be crucial. Fordham will likely rely on freshman Andrew Mevis to handle the punting duties. The place kicking duties will come down junior Kyle Facibene and Mevis. Caddle and Mabin should be the main return specialists but don’t be surprised if Edmonds or Longi are given a chance in key situations.

2017 Outlook

Fordham has to be itching to get the 2017 season started given the wealth of experience and talent they return. The Rams enter the year with a rather large chip on their shoulders after just missing out on a Patriot League title and a 4^th straight FCS playoff appearance. Usually when you combine talent and motivation big things happen. That’s why there’s every reason to believe that 2017 will be a banner year for the Rams. The team has the potential to capture the league title and advance in the playoffs while Edmonds enters the year as the favorite to win FCS’s highest individual honor, The Payton Award. QB Kevin Anderson should also be in the running for postseason accolades.

The defense will ultimately decide if Fordham’s program takes the next step nationally. The talent is there at every position to improve considerably over last year’s disaster. Manny Adeyeye’s return from injury drastically improves the defensive line. If Bowes can build depth at every level the Ram defense will be quite formidable. However, if the injury bug strikes or the unit is forced to spend too much time on the field the problems that plagued Fordham in 2016 will once again pop up.

Fordham plays an extremely exciting schedule in 2017. Army offers a stern, but winnable FBS game out of the gate. The Rams defeated the Blacks Knight in the 2015 opener. Fordham welcomes FCS power Eastern Washington September 16^th in one of the year’s top out of conference games. An always tricky trip to Hamilton, NY to face Colgate on October 14^th and a home showdown against Lehigh two weeks later should be Fordham’s biggest obstacles in the league race. Colgate prevented Fordham from winning the league in 2015 while Lehigh stood in the Rams way last year.

2017 Schedule

9/1 @ Army 6:00 PM

9/9 @ Central Connecticut State 12 PM

9/16 Eastern Washington 1 PM

9/23 @ Bryant 1 PM

9/30 Yale 6 PM

10/7 @ Lafayette 3:30 PM

10/14 @ Colgate 1 PM

10/21 @ Georgetown 2 PM

10/28 Lehigh 1 PM

11/4 Holy Cross 1 PM

11/11 Bye

11/18 Bucknell 12 PM

2017 Projection: 9-2 Overall, 5-1 Patriot League, Playoff Auto-Bid

The FCS Wedge – 2017-0831 – LISTEN UP!

Here we are folks, ready for another year at The FCS Wedge and this one brings us to our 6th season of covering the happenings in the FCS landscape.

Kris Kallem & Lance Berndt guide us all through the limited amount that has happened so far as well as looking ahead to next weekend which is the start of the season for the majority of FCS teams.

They cover some possible upsets over FBS opponents and give a quick look at who they think will ride the season out and end up on top of each FCS conference.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Game Preview: Holy Cross at UConn

Holy Cross at UConn – August 31^st 7:30 PM, ET Pratt and Whitney Stadium East Hartford, CT

TV/Streaming: SNY

The Holy Cross Crusaders will kickoff the 2017 season against an old New England rival, the UConn Huskies. Amazingly, and sadly, these two have no met on the gridiron since 1985 when both programs were 1-AA (FCS). Since that time UConn’s administration decided to move their program to FBS and the Big East before the conference disbanded football. The Huskies are currently in the American Athletic Conference. After leaving UConn for the “greener pastures” of the Big 10 (Maryland) in 2010, Randy Edsall returned as the UConn head coach during the offseason. The fiery coach had quite a bit of success in Storrs during his previous stint as head man but he inherits a mess this time around.

After a disappointing 2016 season, the Crusaders would love nothing more than to spoil Edsall’s return debut by getting a coveted FBS win (over a regional rival to boot). While the odds are almost always stacked against FCS teams when they step up in class, a good showing/moral victory actually counts for something in these games. Holy Cross should enter their season opener with the mindset they can at least compete for 4 quarters. The Huskies offense was woeful last year (14.8 ppg ) and with several new faces this season in key positions, it’s highly unlikely UConn comes out of the gates in 2017 firing on all cylinders. Knowing how bad the offense has been, Edsall and offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee are going to try and use a high tempo, high play total (ala Chip Kelly) offensive strategy in hopes of getting better production. With two new starting wide receivers and sophomore David Pindell getting the starting nod over the incumbent Bryant Shirreffs (223 ypg 7 TD 6 INT in ’16), RB Arkeel Newsome (715 yards rushing 5 TD, 2^nd on team in receptions) figures to be the focal point of the Huskie offense. If Holy Cross can stand up physically to the UConn offensive line it’ll go a long towards keeping them in the game for 4 quarters.

Offensively, Holy Cross has to put the ball in QB Peter Pujals’s hands and let the 5^th year senior loose. He’ll need to make plays with his arm and legs for the Crusader offense to have success. If UConn has a strength heading into 2017 it should be their defense based on the amount of experience that returns. Even by FBS standards it’s loaded with 5^th year seniors. The Huskie front 7 will severely test the Holy Cross offensive line. If the Crusaders O-line is able to give Pujals time to throw and RB Gabe Guild room to run, Holy Cross will have an opportunity to control the ball thus shortening the game some. Pujals will likely lean on veteran WR Richie DiNicola to lead an otherwise unproven receiver crew. The more balance Holy Cross has on offense the closer the game will be.

Holy Cross has to at least like their chances to put on a respectable showing for 60 minutes against a highly suspect UConn team. UConn is without a doubt bigger and deeper at most positions. Holy Cross has a few key 5^th year guys while the Huskies 2-deep is littered with them. There’s no question there’s a certain disparity between the two teams. Yet, it’s hard to imagine UConn walking over a rested and healthy Holy Cross team. If the Crusaders can protect the ball and avoid the dreaded special teams blunders this should be a game worth keeping an eye on.

Prediction: UConn 27 Holy Cross 16

Patriot League Preview: Lehigh

Lehigh Mountain Hawks

2016 Record: 9-3 Overall, 6-0 in Patriot League

Head Coach: Andy Coen 12^th season (77-49 Overall, 46-18 in PL)

Last Patriot League Title: 2016

Last FCS Playoff Appearance: 2016

Key Returning Players

Offense: QB Brad Mayes (Jr.) WR Troy Pelletier (Sr.), WR Gatlin Casey (Sr.), RB Dom Bragalone (Jr.), RT Zach Duffy (5^th Sr.), C Brandon Short (5^th Sr.), LT Tim O’Hara (Sr.), RG Liborio Ricottilli (Jr.)

Defense: DT Tyler Cavenas (Sr.), NG Jimmy Mitchell (5^th Sr.), SS Sam McCloskey (Jr.), CB Quentin Jones (Sr.), CB Donovan Harris (Jr.), FS Riley O’Neil (So.)

2016 Review

After starting the year 0-2 Lehigh would go on a 9 game winning straight to capture the Patriot League Title and a berth in the FCS Playoffs. It was the 11^th league title in program history. Leading the way was one of the most explosive offenses in FCS in 2016. Patriot League Offensive Player of the Year Nick Shafnisky had the breakout year at QB that everyone was waiting for. Shafnisky was not the only skill player to have a big season in 2016. The Mountain Hawks had a pair of 1,000 yard receivers (Troy Pelletier and Gatlin Casey) and a 1,000 yard rusher in Dominic Bragalone (1,192 yards 14 TD).

The defense improved just enough (26.6 ppg) to produce a championship team. After being historically bad in 2015 (35.2 ppg), the ability to force more negative plays and an increased number of turnovers were the main reasons for the improvement last year. The strength of the defense was a veteran linebacker group led by senior Colton Caslow (54 solo, 10 TFL). Still, the unit was often gashed upfront by their opponent’s rushing attack (205.6 ypg, 6^th PL) or the secondary got beat over the top. Getting better against the run has to be the primary focus heading into 2017.

The 64-21 loss to New Hampshire in the FCS Playoffs had to leave a bitter taste in the Mountain Hawk’s mouth after entering the playoffs with a lot of momentum. The loss exposed several defense weaknesses that plagued the team in recent years. If Lehigh wants to return to the playoffs and have a legitimate chance to advance the “D” must improve further. There’s no question the offense will be one of the most explosive units in FCS.

2017 Offense

Returning Player to Watch: QB Brad Mayes (Jr.)

Freshman to Watch: OL Jackson Evans

Lehigh has had some excellent offenses over the years but none were perhaps better than the one that will take the field in 2017. The Mountain Hawks return virtually everyone from last year’s unit that set two school records on offense (Points 466, 38.8 and yards 5,806). The only significant loss was at quarterback with 4 year starter and 2016 PL Offensive POY Nick Shafnisky graduating. However, Lehigh has a proven commodity in Brad Mayes (4-1 as starter, 15 TD 1 INT) waiting to assume the starting role. The strong armed junior is a more refined pocket passer than Shafnisky was but not nearly as dangerous a runner.

Mayes will have the fortune of having arguably the top wide receiver duo in FCS to work with. Seniors Troy Pelletier (96 rec 1,278 yards 12 TD in ’16) and Gatlin Casey (62 rec 1,135 yards 14 TD) have the perfect combination of size (6’3) and athleticism that terrorizes opposing secondaries. Pelletier is in line to break several school records if he stays healthy in 2017. Both were named to the 1^st Team All-Patriot League preseason team. Pelletier also garnered Stats 2^nd Team All-American honors and was named to the Walter Payton Award watch list to start the year. Junior Luke Christiano and senior Sasha Kelsey are expected to split time at the slot position. Senior Drew Paulson (12 rec 151 yards 1 TD in ’16) will once again get the nod at tight end.

Running back is also in excellent hands with the return of 2 time 1,000 yard rusher Dominic Bragalone. Often overshadowed by Fordham’s Chase Edmonds, Bragalone is putting together quite the career for himself. Dominic was named to the Patriot League 1^st Team preseason squad. He also garnered 3^rd team preseason Stats All-American honors. When Bragalone needs a break Lehigh has two capable backups in Micco Brisker (Jr.) and bruiser Nana Amankwah-Ayeh (Sr.).

The final piece to Lehigh’s explosive offense is a veteran offensive line. Bookend tackles (Sr.) Tim O’Hara and (5^th Sr.) Zach Duffy were named 1^st team preseason All-Patriot League. 5^th year center Brandon Short is a 4 year starter and Liborio Ricottilli started all 12 games at LG last season. The only new face along the offensive line will be Jackson Evans. Evans will be the first freshman to start along the “O-line” since Will Rackley was bestowed the honor in 2007.

All things considered, new offensive coordinator Scott Brisson was basically handed the keys to a Maserati.

Defense

Returning Player to Watch: DT Tyler Cavenas (Sr.)

Freshman to Watch: LB Pete Haffner

How high the Mountain Hawks soar in 2017 will once again be determined by the defense. As has been the common theme in recent years, the “D” must improve if the Mountain Hawks want to make major waves on a national level. Craig Sutyak took over as the defensive coordinator during the offseason after Joe Bottiglieri was reassigned to more of an advisory role. The first thing Sutyak did was install a 4-2-5 defense. The new alignment is designed to improve the Mountain Hawk rush D that ranked 6^th in the Patriot League in 2016.

If Lehigh wants to take a step forward on D the first order of business is rebuilding the linebacker corps after all 4 starters graduated from the old 3-4 scheme. One of those 4 starters, Colton Caslow, was the heart and soul of the unit so replacing his production and leadership will not be easy. Stepping in to try and fill Caslow’s shoes will be junior Matt Butler (6’0 225) and sophomore Keith Woetzel (6’2 215). Both linebackers are limited on game experience so there will likely be a few bumps in the road early in the year. Senior Quinton Jones returns from injury to start at the rover (hybrid LB/safety in 4-2-5) position. Expect to see Mark Walker, Jon Seighman and Brian Olshanski get significant time at LB as well. Keep an eye on freshman Pete Haffner (6’0 215). Haffner has the ability to be a contributor early on like Caslow was.

Unlike at linebacker, the defensive line returns a wealth of experience. Three year starter and 1^st team All-Patriot League preseason selection Tyler Cavenas (47 solo 8 TFL in ’16) anchors the line. He’ll be joined by 5^th year senior Jimmy Mitchell (6’2 275) at DT. A pair of Harrison’s, Kauffman and Johnson, seem entrenched at defensive end. Colin Nace and Julian Lynn figure to be major contributors in the trenches as well. The key for the defensive line will be getting more physical at the point of attack. Despite having good size across the board the unit was pushed around at times last year against the more physical teams on Lehigh’s schedule. If the Mountain Hawks intend to improve against the run, Cavenas and company must lead the way.

The secondary also returns a plethora of experience. Junior Sam McCloskey (39 solo 3 INT) and Sophomore Riley O’Neil (36 solo 1 INT) are back at strong and free safety respectively. Both are developing into excellent players at their position. Cornerback also sees two returning starters. Junior Kareem Montgomery and sophomore Donovan Harris were thrust into starting roles last year and faired quite well. Freshman Jaylen Floyd and sophomore Marquis Wilson should also see time at cornerback in passing situations. Depth could be a concern in the secondary as there isn’t a lot of experience outside of the starting four. Limiting big plays downfield should be priority number 1 for the backend of the defense. The Mountain Hawk secondary was burned a few times too many in 2016 by the big play.

Special Teams

Lehigh returns two (Punter and PK Ed Mish and Kick returner Gatlin Casey) 1^st team preseason All-Patriot League selections on special teams. Kicker Ed Mish has proven to be a valuable weapon as a punter and place kicker for the Mountain Hawks. The junior is 15 for 22 kicking field goals for his career with a long of 43 yards. In addition to being a terrific wide receiver, Casey made quite an impact as a kick returner. His 96 yard kickoff return TD against Colgate last year went a long way in determining the outcome of the game.

2017 Outlook

On paper, all the pieces are in place for a special year on South Mountain. The Mountain Hawks return arguably the best set of skill players in FCS. There’s no reason to think the unit can’t break the records that were set in 2016. The key to reaching its potential will be the growth of Mayes at quarterback. The offense will have to be tweaked some due to that fact the Mayes is not nearly as mobile as Shafnisky. The read-option, a staple in the Mountain Hawk offense in recent years, will likely be used sparingly. What figures to increase is more deep passes since Mayes has a stronger arm than Shafnisky. Working behind an excellent offensive line, Bragalone and Co. are more than capable of picking up the slack in the rushing attack.

As great as the offensive will be it alone won’t earn Lehigh another Patriot League championship and FCS playoff berth. The defense must improve another notch if Lehigh wants to get by Fordham and Colgate in the league race. If it continues to sputter along against the better team’s on the schedule there’s a very real chance Lehigh will fail to live up to its favorite status in the league race. The experience is there along the defensive line and secondary for improvement to be had. But after 4 straight years of average to below average play on the defensive side of ball there remains some skepticism that things will change.

The schedule sets up rather well for Lehigh. The season opener against Top 15 Villanova gives the Mountain Hawks a tremendous opportunity to vanquish recent CAA demons and notch a crucial out of conference win. Monmouth, Yale and Penn could be tricky non-conference opponents but Lehigh should be more than capable of taking care of business in those games. The Mountain Hawk’s fate will likely come down to October road trips to Colgate and Fordham. Lehigh’s bye is the week before their showdown against the Rams so they’ll have an extra week of prep.

2017 Schedule

9/2 Villanova 12:30 PM

9/9 @ Monmouth 1 PM

9/16 Yale 12:30 PM

9/23 Penn 12:30 PM

9/30 @ Wagner 6 PM

10/7 @ Colgate 1 PM

10/14 Georgetown 12:30 PM

10/21 Bye

10/28 @ Fordham 1 PM

11/4 @ Bucknell 12 PM

11/11 Holy Cross 12:30 PM

11/18 Lafayette 12:30 PM

2017 Projection: 10-1 Overall, 5-1 Patriot League, FCS Playoff At-large Bid

MVFC – Week 1 Preview

Well folks….it felt like it’d never get here, but college football is back. We’ve got 9 games being played by Missouri Valley Football teams in the first week(end), 3 on Thursday, August 31st, and the remaining 6 on Saturday, September 2nd. Southern Illinois is sitting the first week out.

I don’t have a lot of info to go on this week, since it’s the first week and while you can kinda guess at some things, there’s a lot of big question marks that will take a couple of weeks to start to sort themselves out.

Here’s the full conference schedule for the first weekend (all times listed in Central), along with projected weather (at this point) and streaming video if available:

Western Illinois at Tennessee Tech (Cookeville, TN), 8/31 @ 6 PM

Weather: Rain/Thunderstorms, high of 76, low of 65
Streaming: http://ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch/?Live=5674&type=Live (free)

Eastern Illinois at Indiana State (Terre Haute, IN), 8/31 @ 6 PM

Weather: Cloudy/Overcast, showers possible, high 82, low 59
Streaming: WatchESPN.com-ESPN3

Duquesne at South Dakota State (Brookings, SD), 8/31 @ 7 PM

Weather: Partly Cloudy, high 78, low 60
Streaming: WatchESPN.com-ESPN3

Missouri State at Missouri (Columbia, MO), 9/2 @ 11 AM

Weather: Mostly sunny, high 83
Streaming: WatchESPN.com-SEC Network

Youngstown State at Pitt (Pittsburgh, PA), 9/2 @ 12 PM

Weather: Overcast/Rain, high 75
Streaming: WatchESPN.com-ACC Network

Mississippi Valley State at North Dakota State (Fargo, ND), 9/2 @ 2:30 PM

Weather (for tailgaters): Partly Cloudy, high 79
Streaming: WatchESPN.com-ESPN3

South Dakota at Drake (Des Moines, IA), 9/2 @ 6 PM

Weather: Mostly clear, low 60
Streaming: http://godrakebulldogs.com/watch/?Live=39&type=Live (paid)

Butler at Illinois State (Normal, IL), 9/2 @ 6:30 PM

Weather: Mostly clear, low 60
Streaming: WatchESPN.com-ESPN3

Northern Iowa at Iowa State (Ames, IA), 9/2 @ 7 PM

Weather: Clear, low 58
Streaming: http://www.cyclones.com/watch/?Live=1262&category=Event&type=Live (paid)

Western Illinois University Leathernecks at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (OVC)

TTU is coming off of a 5-6 season overall, but 5-3 in the OVC which was good enough for 3rd place in the final conference standings. The Golden Eagles don’t have a ton of offensive weapons, with QB Michael Birdsong finishing up a strong senior year last season (2577 yards & 17 TDs passing, 226 yards & 4 TDs rushing). They do have Sophomore RB Yeedee Thaenrat who ran for 707 yards and 6 TDs last season as a freshman and was named to this season’s preseason All-OVC team, as well as Senior WR Dontez Byrd, who caught for 933 yards and 7 TDs last season. Defensively, Junior LB Josh Poplar returns following a 105 tackle performance last season. Overall, in the OVC preseason poll, TTU is expected to finish 6th (out of 9 teams).

Western Illinois last season started strong (3-0 OOC), but finished on a 3-game losing streak to end up 6-5 overall, but only 3-5 in the conference (6th out of 10). On the offense, they’ve lost two of the top WRs in school history, although pretty much everyone else on that side of the ball returns, including Junior QB Sean McGuire, who set the school record for passing yards per game last season as a sophomore, and Junior RB Steve McShane. On the other side, FCS Preseason All-American (First Team) Brett Taylor returns for his senior season at LB looking to top his 134 tackles (94 solo) from last year. The Leatherneck defensive backfield, which was horrible last year against the pass has been revamped, with a new defensive coordinator (former LB coach at Louisville, Tony Grantham), a couple of experienced senior transfers, and a new defensive scheme (4-3 to 3-4).

Despite frequent matchups between Ohio Valley and Missouri Valley football teams, TTU and WIU have never played each other. Overall, I think that the Leatherneck offense should have very little difficulty moving the ball against the Golden Eagle defense, especially on the ground, although it’ll take a little bit to “knock the rust off”. I’m predicting something around a 10-point Leatherneck win.

Eastern Illinois Panthers (OVC) at Indiana State Sycamores

In another Thursday night MVFC/OVC matchup, the rather familiar (to many MVFC teams) EIU Panthers head across state lines (only about 43 miles, “as the crow flies”) to INSU. Due to proximity and for much of their history, being in the same conference, the two teams have played 83 times overall, with EIU leading the overall series 42-37-4. Eastern also has won the last 5 matchups against Indiana State, winning the last meeting 31-0 in 2009.

Last season, the Panthers were 6-5 overall, 4-4 in their conference and this year are predicted to finish 4th in the conference.They have 1 preseason all-conference player…Addison Bounds (Senior Tight End). Last year they had a fairly average defense, giving up 373.5 yards and 28.2 points per game, and a halfway-decent offense, putting up 404.8 yards per game and 26.7 points per game…so, overall a solidly “middle-of-the-pack” team.

Indiana State finished 4-7 overall last season, but only 2-6 in the conference and are predicted to finish last (10th) in the MVFC this year. They have returning preseason all-conference placekicker Jerry Nunez, and honorable mention RB LeMonte Booker. Stats-wise, they were ranked in the bottom half of the FCS in most categories, and performed especially poorly at giving up turnovers, sacks, and allowing teams to score from the red zone.

This one’s a little harder to pick, since I think that both teams are actually fairly evenly matched. I’d normally give EIU a bit of an edge on a neutral field, but this game is in Indiana, so I think it’ll be a close game, but ISU’s placekicker will squeak out the game-deciding FG to win by 3 points.

Duquesne (NEC) at South Dakota State

The Duquesne Dukes play in the Northeast Conference and finished 8-3 overall last season and 5-1 in-conference. They are predicted to win the NEC this season, and have preseason All-NEC players: RB AJ Hines, OL Matt Fitzpatrick, OL Ben Huss, DL Andy Struttmann, LB Nathan Stone, and DB Abner Roberts. Huss was named to the STATS FCS Preseason Second Team and Hines was named to the CFPA FCS National Performer of the Year Trophy Watch List and was the recipient of the Jerry Rice Award last season for the FCS’s top freshman. The Dukes finished in the top half of rankings for most categories in the FCS last year.

South Dakota State finished 8-3 in the regular season last year and 1-1 in the playoffs. They were 7-1 in the conference (regular season) beating both the conference champion North Dakota State, and eventual national championship runner-up Youngstown State in the regular season before losing to North Dakota State in the second round of the playoffs. Technically they’re picked to finish second in the conference this year, but really, by voting numbers, it was practically a tie for first. They have the following players on the MVFC Preseason team: QB Taryn Christion, RB Brady Mengarelli, FB Kane Louscher, WR Jake Wieneke, TE Dallas Goedert, OL Charlie Harmon, OL Jacob Ohnesorge, DL Kellen Soulek, LB Christian Rozeboom, and honorable mention for punter Brady Hale. Wieneke, Goedert, Ohnesorge, and Rozeboom were all named STATS Preseason First Team All-Americans. Last season, the Jackrabbits had a few struggles on defense, but had one of the top offenses in the FCS and with nearly every part of that offense coming back this season, they should have a very good shot of doing even better this year.

Duquesne has a pretty solid team, but SDSU is just a “buzzsaw”…that will tear through just about any team that gets in their way. NDSU and Villanova (in the playoffs) were the only two teams that were able to hold the Jackrabbits to less than 20 points in a game last season, and they should be even better this year. I just don’t think Duquesne has the players needed to keep up with and cover all of SDSU’s offensive threats for all 4 quarters. They might be able to keep it close at first, but I think SDSU will pull away later in the game, eventually winning by around 20 points.

Just in case anyone is curious, it does appear that Duquesne and SDSU have played each other once before, with Duquesne winning 34-12. It’s probably not very relevant to this game, however, since it was in 1932.

Missouri State at Missouri (SEC)

The first of three FBS/FCS matchups for the MVFC this week will see the MSU Bears traveling up the road a ways to Columbia to take on Mizzou. I’m not going to lie…this is probably going to get ugly. Despite the proximity of the schools, they’ve actually only played each other one time before…back in 1923…a 10-0 Tigers victory.

Mizzou was 4-8 last season, and 2-6 in the SEC, so…they haven’t been a great team lately…for a P5-conference team. They’ve got a fairly solid O-Line, but aren’t great on defense and tend to turn the ball over fairly often, fumbling the ball away 13 times last season.

Missouri State also finished the season with 4 wins (4-7) and 2 conference wins (2-6), so…they haven’t been a great team lately either…but that’s by MVFC standards, which, despite being the most dominant FCS conference in the last few years, is not the SEC. I could, for the most part, use the same descriptors for the Bears as I did for the Tigers, but I don’t think it would matter even if they were pretty good on both sides of the ball.

I think that MSU’s one chance at looking fairly respectable in this game is if (STATS Preseason Third Team) kick returner Deion Holliman is able to make some defenders miss in key spots on a couple of kick returns and get the Bears some really good field position on some of the drives. MSU also has WR Malik Earl and DL Colby Isbell on the conference preseason team, as well as Honorable Mentions for OL Coleman Clanton and LB McNeece Egbim. The combination of Egbim and Isbell, if they’re able to both have essentially “career games” could also slow things down for the Tigers. Still…I don’t see it likely that MSU ends up staying within 20 points of Mizzou. I know that you’re always trying for the win, but if MSU does stay within 20 and comes away without any serious injuries, I think I’d consider that a “moral victory” in this case. So, I’m going to predict Mizzou by 20.

Youngstown State at Pitt

FCS vs FBS game #2 for the conference has the Penguins of Youngstown State “waddling” about 60 miles down the road to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh to take on the Pitt Panthers. The two teams have played each other 4 times before, with Pitt taking 3 out of the 4, and the only YSU victory being a 31-17 win in 2012.

Pitt was 8-4 during the regular season last year (5-3 in the ACC) and lost their bowl game (Pinstripe Bowl) against Northwestern. Last season, they had a very high-scoring offense (40.9 points per game) although they did give up quite a few points as well (35.2 per game). Most of the yardage given up was through the air, so teams that had a strong passing attack could do well against them. They only allowed 3 sacks all season, which was the 6th best in the FBS last year.

Youngstown State brings back very little of the dominant defense that helped them make it all the way to the FCS national championship game last year. They do have STATS Preseason Third Team O-Lineman Justin Spencer back, as well as MVFC preseason O-Lineman Vitas Hrynkiewicz, LB Armand Dellovade, and punter Mark Schuler. They finished 8-3 in the regular season (6-2 in-conference) before winning four straight in the playoffs against Samford, Jacksonville State, Wofford, and Eastern Washington, and then finally going down in the championship game against James Madison. For much of the season, they had a relatively “anemic” offense, but a stellar defense that helped keep them in games. The offense started to progress more later in the season, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough to prevent them from some regression without a large part of that defense this year.

I think Pitt will likely win the 5th matchup of their series, roughly in the neighborhood of a 17 point margin.

Mississippi Valley State at North Dakota State

Ok, so I know that I said that MSU and Mizzou was probably going to get ugly. Well, unfortunately for MVSU fans, I think this one will be worse.

Last year, the Delta Devils were 1-10 overall, 1-8 in their conference. They were shut out twice , were second to last in the FCS in points allowed with 48.8 points per game, and were 5th to last in points scored with 14.0 points per game. MVSU does have a preseason All-SWAC First Team DB in Everett Nicholas and Second Team O-Lineman Alvin Solomon. They are picked to finish last in the SWAC East in the conference preseason poll.

The Bison are essentially the mirror image of MVSU. For the last half-decade or so, they have been essentially the most dominant FCS team, with a solid offense (39th last year in scoring in the FCS) and a stellar defense (5th last year in scoring). Last year they went 10-1 in the regular season, losing only to conference rival SDSU by 2 points. Then in the playoffs they won their first two (including one against the only team to beat them in the regular season, SDSU) and lost to eventual national champion James Madison. They are picked to win the MVFC this season, have 7 players on the preseason All-MVFC list (and an additional 3 on the honorable mention list) including 5 players that are on the STATS preseason All-American teams and 2 that are on the Buck Buchanan watch list (including legitimate NFL draft prospect LB Nick DeLuca, who would be in the NFL this season if not for a shoulder injury early last season).

If there is good news for MVSU it’s that:

They get to play football at one of the premiere venues in the FCS
They have nothing to lose.

Everyone expects them to lose…by quite a bit. If they somehow keep it close this game, then that’s a “win” for them. They might as well test things out, try some plays they wouldn’t normally try if they were playing more conservatively, and get some guys who maybe haven’t played much before some much-needed experience. I don’t think they stand much of a chance of winning the game though, and the margin is probably just…whenever the NDSU coaching staff decides to “call off the dogs”, put in their third string, and go for just basic running plays every down. My guess….45 points.

South Dakota at Drake

The Drake Bulldogs are, like half of the MVFC member teams, a member of the Missouri Valley Conference for their “Olympic” sports. Unlike those MVC/MVFC teams, they play football in the non-scholarship Pioneer League. Last year, they finished 7-4 overall (with one loss to DII Quincy University and one win over DII McKendree University, both of the GLVC) and 6-2 in their conference. They are picked to finish 4th in the Pioneer League this season and bring back Preseason All-Conference D-Lineman Mack Marrin and STATS Preseason All-American Third Team Punter Terry Wallen.

South Dakota finished last season 4-7 overall and 3-5 in the MVFC. Like Western Illinois, South Dakota got off to a relatively strong start, going 3-1 in the conference, but then losing four straight to close out the season. They are picked to finish 7th in the conference this year and received preseason All-MVFC honorable mentions for their “running threat” QB Chris Streveler, Long Snapper Brandon Godsey, and DB Danny Rambo. They did have a lot of struggles on defense last season especially against the run, so we’ll see if they’ve been able to shore that up during the offseason.

Drake isn’t a bad team for a non-scholarship team, but there’s a pretty big jump in talent from a team like Drake to even a “middle-of-the-pack” MVFC team. I think USD will probably win this one by about 20 points.

Butler at Illinois State

Butler is another Pioneer League team heading to play a MVFC team this week, at Normal to take on the Redbirds. Butler, a team known significantly more for their basketball team than for their football team, finished 4-7 overall last season (with 2 of those wins non-DI teams) and 2-6 in the Pioneer League. They were actually really good against the run last year, but their defense was horrible against passing games, and they had a tendency to turn the ball over fairly often. They’re picked to finish 7th in the Pioneer League this year, and they have two preseason All-Conference players with WR Pace Temple and FB Duvante Lane.

Illinois State snuck into the playoffs last season as only the second FCS team to ever make the playoffs with only six wins. They finished 6-5 in the regular season, 4-4 in the MVFC, and lost in the first round of the playoffs to Central Arkansas. They were pretty good defensively last season, allowing only 21.8 points per game, and had probably the best defensive backfield in the MVFC, although they had some issues with their offense allowing more than 3 sacks per game. The Redbirds are picked to finish 5th in the MVFC preseason poll, and welcome back preseason All-MVFC and STATS Preseason Second Team DB Davontae Harris as well as All-MVC WR Spencer Schnell, D-Lineman Dalton Keene, DB Alec Kocour, and honorable mention placekicker Sean Slattery.

This game is second annual Spack Stache Bash game for ISU, so they’ll be breaking out the ‘staches and celebrating with fireworks after the game. They should be feeling pretty good following what I expect to be a roughly 35 point win for the Redbirds on Saturday night.

Northern Iowa at Iowa State

And the final MVFC game this week involves in-state FCS/FBS rivals Northern Iowa and Iowa State. UNI plays ISU on average about every other year, although they did play them last season. ISU has the advantage in the overall series, 21-6-3, however, over the last 10 years, UNI has won half the games, going 3-3 since 2007.

Last season, the ISU Cyclones finished 3-9 overall and 2-7 in the Big 12 conference, including losing 25-20 to UNI. For the most part, it was their defense that let them down, allowing 452.9 yards and 31.3 points per game throughout the season. They are picked to finish 9th (out of 10) in the Big 12 preseason poll, and have the following preseason All-Big 12 players: WR Allen Lazard and DB Kamari Cotton-Moya.

Northern Iowa finished 5-6 overall (including the previously mentioned win over Iowa State) and went 4-4 in the conference. They had a quality defense allowing only 310.2 yards and 22 points per game, but had some significant offensive issues, not the least of which was some seriously questionable decisions by the coaching staff. Much of the coaching staff is new this season, however, from the sounds of many UNI fans, the biggest problem remains in charge. If the coaching staff can get out of their own way, they have a chance to win this game, but it won’t be easy. UNI is picked to finish 4th in the conference in the preseason poll and have STATS Preseason Second Team and All-MVFC LB Jared Farley returning for his senior year in addition to preseason All-MVFC DB Malcolm Washington, and honorable mentions for RB Trevor Allen, O-Lineman Cal Twait, DB Elijah Campbell, Punter Sam Kuhter, and return specialist Jalen Rima.

Last year, it all came together for UNI to win by 5 points, but I don’t see that being the likely scenario this year. UNI does seem to “play up” usually when they’re playing P5-level teams, especially those that are fairly close proximity (Iowa, Iowa State, Wisconsin), but I feel like this year they’ll fall just a bit short. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout like we often see between P5 FBS teams when they play against the FCS, but ISU will probably win by about a TD.

Big Sky Conference Week 1 Preview

The Big Sky football season is upon us once again, and this season looks to be one of the more exciting seasons in recent memory. Super star wide receiver Cooper Kupp has left us, but rest assured there are plenty of other players that we’ll be watching over the course of the season.

Last season ended with Eastern Washington being the last Big Sky team left standing, they suffered a season ending loss to Youngstown State in Cheney on what might have been one of the strangest plays of the college football season. The Penguins moved on to play James Madison in the FCS championship. Other Big Sky teams to make the playoffs were Cal Poly, who was defeated by San Diego in the first round. Weber State, who was defeated by Chattanooga in the first round and North Dakota, who was defeated in the second round.

Eastern Washington had an offseason full of losses, losing their top playmakers to graduation, as well as head coach Beau Baldwin. Baldwin moved onto the FBS to take the offensive coordinator job at California. The Eagles named Aaron Best their new head coach and moved on with their offseason.

North Dakota was picked by the coaches and the media to be the preseason Big Sky champions. The Fighting Hawks were the seven seed in the playoffs last season, Eastern Washington was seeded second. The Fighting Hawks return a pair of talented running backs, John Santiago and Brady Oliveira. They also return one of the top secondary players in the league, Cole Reyes. The Hawks have a lot of talent to win the league, however, their schedule is considerably more difficult this season.

Other teams that factor into the Big Sky race this year are Northern Arizona, Cal Poly, Weber State, and Montana. Northern Arizona returns talented receiver Emmanuel Butler as well as quarterback Case Cookus. Last year a few injuries derailed the Lumberjacks’ season but they should be primed to make a run at the top of the standings this season.

Cal Poly returns running back Joe Protheroe, but the Mustangs will have a gauntlet ahead of them. The Mustangs played a week 0 game against Colgate and lost 20-14. They will face San Jose State and Northern Iowa on the road, and come back to face Northern Arizona at home. Their schedule should be fairly favorable to close the season, but the Mustangs can’t afford to start 0-4 if they want to be a playoff team.

Weber State is a team that’s been slowly building into a talented football team, and somewhat culminated last season with a trip to the playoffs, their first since 2009. This season the Wildcats return a stout defense led by Landon Stice and Taron Johnson. The Wildcats schedule is favorable for another playoff trip, however, games against NAIA Montana-Western and California could be a detriment to the Wildcats playoff resume. They will need to also beat Cal Poly and Eastern Washington on the road to build their resume for the post season.

Montana is looking to recover from a rare season where they did not make the playoffs. After a 6-5 season and no post season the Griz are looking to turn their fortune around. They will need to do it with a new quarterback, Reese Phillips, leading the team. The Griz will rely on Phillips, as well as talented slot receiver Jerry Louis-McGee and linebacker Josh Buss to get the team back to their winning ways. The Griz’s schedule plays out that we probably won’t find out how good the Griz are until September 23^rd, a home date with Eastern Washington. The Griz will get North Dakota and Northern Arizona at home, those will need to be wins for the Griz to get back to the post-season.

As for the rest of the Big Sky, Montana State and Southern Utah look like the most competitive teams of the bottom half of the conference. Montana State is returning young quarterback Chris Murray. Murray’s summer development will be important for the Cats if they are going to be competitive under second year head coach Jeff Choate. Southern Utah will again rely on a tough defense to get them through the season led by Mike Needham at linebacker. Portland State is looking for big things with third year coach Bruce Barnum and could be a team walking through the season looking for upsets. Idaho State replaced their coaching staff this offseason, abruptly firing Mike Kramer. Kramer is replaced by Rob Phenecie, a former Montana offensive coordinator. Rounding out the bottom are Sacramento State and UC-Davis.

Scores

Portland State 6
BYU 20

Colgate 20
Cal Poly 14

North Dakota
Utah

Western Oregon
Idaho State

Sacramento State
Idaho

Valparaiso
Montana

Portland State
Oregon State

College of Idaho
Northern Colorado

Eastern Washington
Texas Tech

Cal Poly
San Jose State

Montana-Western
Weber State

Southern Utah
Oregon

UC-Davis
San Diego State

Montana State
Washington State

Northern Arizona
Arizona

Big Sky Player of the Week

I guess we’ll wait and see!

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, Eastern Washington
Cole Reyes, North Dakota
Joe Protheroe, Cal Poly
Emmanuel Butler, Northern Arizona
John Santiago, North Dakota

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Eastern Washington
2. North Dakota
3. Northern Arizona
4. Cal Poly
5. Montana
6. Weber State
7. Montana State
8. Portland State
9. Southern Utah
10. Northern Colorado
11. Idaho State
12. UC-Davis
13. Sacramento State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Took me a while to get ready for college football, but now that the season is less than a week away I think I’m ready….

…to pick on North Dakota for the next four months.

SOCON: Week 1 Preview

The opening of the 2017 season is cause for much rejoicing for those of us who have been in FCS football withdrawal since last fall. But it’s here! Week 1! The slate for the opening week in the Southern Conference has everything: a conference game, an OOC game, lower Division games, and FBS foes. There are lots of questions about the conference teams this year. There are new coaches and new starters. How they will pan out is yet to be seen. Some of these questions may be answered this week, some may not.

(As always, hyperlinks in blue and all times eastern. I usually put links to the game notes, but they are not out yet and I need to publish early. However, I do have the links to the various schools football pages though. I hope it is convenient for your use.)

Jacksonville at Mercer Thursday 7PM (Mercer Site) (ESPN3)

Mercer begins its season against Pioneer league Jacksonville U. The big questions for the Bears will be can they replace their QB? Can they replace all the leadership lost to its first graduating class? In its three years in the SOCON Mercer has gone 7-11, but it was 4-4 last year. Not bad for a team beginning its 5^th year of football this season. However, its transition is now over. It needs to start winning more of the close ones if it wants to be a force in the SOCON. It starts out the season with the Dolphins of Jacksonville University who went 5-5 last year. These teams have met only once before in 2013 during Mercers start up year when they played in the Pioneer League. Mercer won that match up 45-42.

Mercer will obviously be warming up its new QB in this game. It does get back junior running back Alex Lakes who was second in rushing for the Bears behind departed QB John Russ. Also returning are 4 of their top 5 receivers from last year including Sophomore TE Sam Walker and Junior WR Marquise Irvin, both of whom made all SOCON teams. They do have some holes to fill on the offensive line though.

The Bears defense also has some holes to fill from graduation. They return 5 starters from a squad that allowed 404 yards a game and 5.8 yards per play. They allowed opponents to convert on 3^rd downs about 41% of the time. They logged 23 sacks last year and snagged 8 interceptions.

Mercer was second in the SOCON in turnover margin at +8 and held the ball 29:40 average per game. One area for improvement will be in penalties. They averaged a conference high 68 penalty yards a game with an average of about 7 penalties per game. A few of their drives in close games were sabotaged by those penalties last year.

Jacksonville has a fairly balanced offense with a tendency to run a little more often than pass. They averaged 425 yards a game last year and scored about 33 points a game. On Defense the Dolphins gave up 414 yards each game and 33.3 points. There is no doubt that the Dolphins will be outmatched by Mercer, but Jacksonville brings a ton of players back and could make a game of it if Mercer doesn’t have it game face on. Still, with lots of new faces starting, the Bears will want to make an impression and they should take this one on a hot Thursday night in Macon 38-10.

Kennesaw State at #17 Samford Thursday 7PM EDT (Samford site) (ESPN3)

Samford was a passing machine last year. Devlin Hodges, now a Jr, racked up 4088 passing yards with nearly a 71% completion rate. He was the third leading passer in all of FCS last year. He also tossed just 8 interceptions in 12 games. Had Samford had any sort of running game they might have won 2-3 more games and gone further in the playoffs rather than losing in the first round. They totaled just 1161 yards on the ground for the year and had 7 games with under 100 yards rushing (with 4 games under 50 yards!). Their time of possession was under 25 minutes a game on average. Yup, their defense was on the field a lot last year.

On average they allowed opponents to rack up 421 yards a game last year. Those stats were a bit skewed by Miss State’s 669 yards, but Central Arkansas, UTC, and The Citadel all gained over 500 on them. They only held opponents to about a 40% third down conversion rate. They did record 24 sacks and 11 interceptions though. They get back most of their defense so if they can stay rested or have better depth, they might hold down opposing offensives a bit better this year.

On the flip side, they scored early and often. Their scoring drives usually took only 1-2 minutes. Hodges is dangerous on the short passes as well as throwing the deep ball. The Dogs lost a bit of their receiver corps, but they are still stacked. As mentioned, they had an atrocious time of possession which was the consequence of a mediocre 35% third down conversion rate. If they can get their running game in gear, and if Hodges continues to put up impressive numbers, they will get something special going this year.

Last year Kennesaw State’s low point came with an opening game loss to ETSU. Its high point was probably its victory over a downtrodden Furman team. The Owls went 8-3, although three victories came against sub-Div I opponents. It was a descent season for a second year program. Their spread option offense averaged 321 yards rushing and 159 yards through the air per game. They converted on third downs 49% of the time. Again, these numbers are probably padded a bit due to their opponents, but they definitely have something going on down in Georgia. On defense they allowed only about 321 yards a game, but they gave up well over 400+ yards per game against better competition in Furman, Gardner-Webb and Liberty. One thing the Owls obviously have going for them in their third year, is they did not lose very much talent from last year. Ball control will key for them in this game. They will need to keep chunking out first downs and keep the ball away from Hodges hot arm, and wear down the Samford defense in the process. If they can do that they might have a chance.

Samford needs to make a statement early. They pulled off a nice road victory early last year at Central Arkansas after destroying Mars Hill in week one. If they can record a convincing victory here, it will look much nicer come November, especially if they are on the bubble. Bulldogs win 37-24.

VMI at Air Force 2PM EDT (VMI game notes) (ESPN3)

With only 4 offensive starters returning from last year’s 3-8 team, VMI will have a tough road to hoe. And that includes losing their standout QB AL Cobb. Luckily they have a descent RB returning in Sophomore Daz Palmer. They also have a fairly capable line backer corps coming back.

It looks like RSo Austin Coulling, who had some moderate playing time last year, will take over at QB. He has big shoes to fill even if the Keydets didn’t put up big numbers. The Keydets averaged just under 350 yards a game last year with about a 2-1 pass to rush yards. They were dead last in the SOCON in third down conversions at 33%. Worse yet, they were at minus 3 in turnover margin. One bright spot for the Keydets was their league leading low in penalties per game and penalty yards per game. They are disciplined.

Last year on defense, VMI held opponent to a decent 37% third down conversion rate. They did give up some big plays though. They gave up 430 yards a game on average including 186 on the ground and 244 through the air. They registered 14 sacks and 7 interceptions on the year. But they get back 7 starters including standout linebackers Alan Cratsenberg and Ryan Francis, and it should only get better for them with that experience returning.

Starting out with a road game at AF will be a tall task for this VMI team. The Falcons went 10-3 including a bowl victory last year. But opening games against FCS teams can sometime breed complacency for FBS teams. AF will win, but VMI will make them earn it. Look for AF to win 37-10.

Newberry at #14 The Citadel 6PM (The Citadel site) (ESPN3)

Normally I hate games against Div II opponents. There is everything to lose and not much to be gained. But this year, with the Bulldogs doing some reloading, this is a good time for a DIV II opponent.

Newberry was pretty good last year. They went 10-2 and lost in the first round of the Div II playoffs. They had a really high powered offense that scored 60 TDs. But they are even worse off than the Bulldogs in regard to graduation loses. The Bulldogs return only 3 offensive starters. But those three are pretty impressive including QB Dominique Allen and A-Back Cam Jackson. With The Citadel rotating players in and out all the time, many of the expected starters this year have had lots of previous playing time as well. There may be a few true freshmen that may also play a part. Time will tell. The OL will be the biggest question mark for the Dogs.

The Bulldogs defense was not hurt as bad as the offensive due to graduation, but they did lose a couple All Americans. They will still have Sr DB Kalik Williams, SOCON preseason Defensive Player of the Year, and 5 other starters returning from last year’s squad that held opponents to just 303 yards and 20.5 points a game. The Bulldog defense won quite a few games last year.

Another area of concern for The Citadel is the kicking game as it returns a sophomore for place kicking and will have a true freshman doing the punting. Kicking won a couple games last year as well.

As mentioned, this game comes at the right time. The Bulldogs will need to shake the kinks out of many aspects of the game. It is best that they get it done here, rather than against Samford or Wofford. The Dogs may take a few series to get the rhythm down so execution may be a bit sloppy to start with, but they should take care of business in any event due to their depth and the constant grind of the option on Newberry’s defense. Expect the Dogs to roll 42-14.

Furman at #8 Wofford 7PM (Furman site) (Wofford site) (ESPN3)

Last year, The Citadel got off to any early start in the conference race by beating both Mercer and then Furman to start the season. This year Wofford plays Furman and then Mercer and hopes it can also get an early lead in the conference race. With Furman sporting a new coach and Wofford’s success in the playoffs last year, the Terriers clearly have high hopes for this game. The Terriers have beaten Furman twice in a row and have not allowed a Paladin victory in Spartanburg since 2006.

Wofford returns a bunch of folks on both sides of the ball. The offense will have some holes to fill in the backfield and offensive line, but they return Sr Brandon Goodson at QB. They faced just a few QB issues last year, but it didn’t seem to hurt them too bad. Wofford averaged a respectable 280 yards a game on the ground last year and 63 through the air. They were more than good at converting third downs at 44% on the season. They also benefited from a turnover margin of +8. And as is to be expected for an option team, they held on to the ball quite a bit; over 34 minutes a game.

But what won them many games was their defense. They return 7 starters from last year’s squad that held opponents to just 287 yards a game. That was good enough to lead the SOCON and place them at #5 in all of FCS. They also held opponents to 17.1 points a game (SOCON #1, FCS #6). On average they held teams to 102 on the ground per game. They chalked up 18 interceptions and 30 sacks as well. There is no doubt that they will be a defensive powerhouse again this year.

Furman has nowhere to go this year but up. Suffering one of their worse seasons in a while, the Paladins get a new coach this year in Clay Hendrix. Hendrix, a 1986 Furman grad, finished up ten years at AF and was a former position and assistant coach at Furman for 19 years. He is coming home and the excitement in Greenville must be as high as it has been in years.

Furman started out last season with a meat grinder schedule and they must have hit a low point after starting 0-6 for the first time ever. They were not a bad team as far as talent goes. They just never seemed to gel very well. They return only 4 on each side of the ball, but they get all their special team players back.

Last year the Paladins lost their starting QB PJ Blazejowski in the third game against UTC. As the most experienced and capable QB available, It looks he will start for the Paladins this year. Furman averaged nearly 400 yards a game with the bulk coming through the air. How fast Blazejowski can get back in the groove may well determine how Furman’s season goes. Whether they can establish a credible rushing game also remains to be seen. They do return their leading rusher, Sr Antonio Wilcox who ran for 398 yards last year.

Last year on defense Furman allowed a respectable 373 yards and 27 points a game. They had 12 sacks and grabbed 7 interceptions. They were not bad and many of their games were close. Against the run, the Paladins allowed 192 yards a game. They allowed Wofford to rush for over 300 last year, but held The Citadel to just under 200 so they know how to defend the option. As always against the option, disciplined assignment play will be key for their defense. In this opening game, that may be a tall order.

Can the Paladins win this? Season openers can produce some crazy games, so yes they can. Anything can happen in this battle of the upstate, but Wofford is positioned nicely to win this game in their quest for the title. Look for a close game, but Wofford takes it 27-20.

Limestone at ETSU 7PM (ETSU site) (ESPN3)

The Bucs of ETSU are starting their third year back playing football. They had a couple nice victories last year against Kennesaw State and especially Samford. Those victories were due to extremely good ball control. With most of their team coming back ETSU will obviously benefit from that experience. They return 18 starters. But they are obviously still trying to find their way. Opening against Div II Limestone, in just their fourth year of football, may be just what they need to start the season.

Last year the Bucs were last in the SOCON in points per game and yards per game. But they were not last in most statistical categories. They are making progress and could very well make some waves. They had a good 39% third down conversion rate. They can also move the ball and hold onto it. They had a 31+ minute average for time of possession per game. They were +3 in turnovers. They had the highest red-zone scoring rate in the SOCON at 90%. But it should be pointed out that they did not have a huge number of trips into the red zone so that is a bit skewed. But they are obviously doing some things right.

Their offense will be led by Jr Austin Herink who went 161-270 last year with 8 interceptions and 1695 yards. Running back Jajuan Stinson, Jr, was ninth in the SOCON averaging 54 yards a game. They also have a kicker who went 12/16 in FGs with long of 43.

On Defense they have a couple standout folks like linebacker Dylan Weigel and Defensive lineman Jason Maduafokwa. Last year the Bucs allowed 380 yards a game and 28 points a game. They had 14 sacks and only 2 interceptions.

They should have no issues with Limestone. If they do, then their next game, against JMU, may be even more painful. Look for ETSU to roll in the first game in their new stadium, 41-3.

Western Carolina at Hawaii 11:59PM EDT (WCU site) (Hawaii Radio)

The Catamounts had a pretty disappointing season last year. That was unfortunate considering they have some good talent. Their biggest problem was defense. To be specific, they had none. That is a little harsh, but when you look at the numbers it becomes painfully obvious that something was wrong. They ditched their defense coach mid season, but the damage was probably done. Hopefully they can build one this year with their new defensive coordinator.

Last year WCU gave up 522 yards a game. That was last in the SOCON and next to last in FCS. Against the run, they gave up 309 yards a game, which was again last in the SOCON and last in FCS. They were better against the pass but not by much. They gave up 213 yards a game with just 9 sacks and 6 interceptions all year. Their defense returns 7 starters so they should be better.

On the flip side, their offense was not bad last year. They will again be led by Tyrie Adams at QB. As a freshman last year he went 217/342 for 2568 yards (FCS #28) with 9 interceptions and 15 TDS. Not bad for a freshman. He is only going to get better and will be one of the premier QBs in the SOCON in short order. They also return Sr Detrez Newsome at running back. He piled up 1031 rushing yards (SOCON #2, FCS #23). The Cats averaged 387 yards a game with 234 through the air on average. Their offense remains fairly intact with 8 starters returning so they may have an impact on the SOCON race.

As with all teams making the trip to paradise, the time change and distractions may take its toll on them. Their time zone has always been Hawaii’s 12th man. The Rainbow Warriors went 7-7 last year including a bowl victory (the Hawaii Bowl…go figure). As a comparison for those who don’t follow them too closely, Hawaii beat Tenn-Martin last year 41-36 in week 3. If the WCU coaches can keep the Cats focused and acclimate them to the time change, WCU could give Hawaii some fits. It may still be tough for the Catamounts. Expect Hawaii to win 41-27.

Game Preview: Colgate @ #21 Cal Poly

Colgate at #21 Cal Poly – August 26^th 7 PM ET, Alex G. Spanos Stadium San Louis Obispo, CA

TV: ESPNU

The Colgate Raiders open the 2017 season on national TV against #21 Cal Poly in an intriguing non-conference battle. This will be the second time (St. Mary’s 1999) in program history Colgate heads to California for a football game. Not surprisingly this is the first ever matchup between the two strong academic institutions. Colgate is coming off a glass half full/half empty 5-5 season while Cal Poly went 7-5 last year (5-3 in the Big Sky) and earned an at large bid to the FCS playoffs. The Mustangs surprisingly lost in the 1^st round of the FCS playoffs to non-scholarship San Diego. A team Cal Poly beat by 22 points earlier in the year.

On paper, this game will come down running the ball and stopping the run. Cal Poly runs a variance of the traditional triple option offense while Colgate prefers the read option. The Raiders ranked first in FCS last year against the run (69.4 ypg) while Cal Poly was second in rushing offense (343.5 ypg). Both teams did suffer rather significant graduation losses in the trenches. However, there is not a lack of talent for either team. Colgate will rely on All-American DE Pat Afriyie to lead the way along the front 7. Cal Poly’s O-line will be led by 1^st team BSC offensive lineman Harry Whitson and returning starter Joey Kuperman.

The Mustangs most dangerous weapon on offense is easily Joe Protheroe (1,334 yards 13 TDs in ’16). The senior fullback is a strong candidate for this year’s Payton Award. With junior Khaleel Jenkins taking over for 2^nd team All-Big Sky QB Dano Graves, Protheroe figures to be even more of a focal point early in the year. Colgate has not faced a rushing attack like Cal Poly’s since the 2015 opener against Navy.

Colgate will also try to establish the run on offense. The return of RB James Hollond (732 yards 16 TDs in ’15) is a huge boost for the Raider offense. The talented RB missed the majority of last year after suffering a leg injury against Richmond. Like Cal Poly, the Raiders will be breaking in a new signal caller so having a proven commodity in the backfield is a great crutch. The Raiders possess an excellent offensive line so if Colgate can have some success passing, thus forcing Cal Poly to loosen up on D, Hollond should find some daylight. Neutralizing NT Augustino Elisaia (’16 2^nd Team All-BSC) will be key for the Raider’s OL. The issue for both defenses last year was stopping the pass. Colgate is the more likely team to exploit, or at least try to exploit, the weakness despite Attwood’s and Scarfone’s inexperience.

This is the first of two regular season games between the Patriot League and Big Sky (EWU @ Fordham 9/9) this year. Because the conferences reside on opposite sides of the country rarely have they butted heads. Having two strong programs from the Big Sky and Patriot League face-off against each other is great for FCS. It would awesome if there were more of these intersectional battles!

Cal Poly is the slight favorite at home. As great as Colgate was against the run, and they were clearly awesome, Cal Poly is a different animal on offense with Protheroe leading the way. If the Mustangs can avoid mistakes they’ll sneak by the Raiders at home. However, if the Colgate QB settles in allowing the Raiders to have balance on offense and the defense proves they’re once again elite run stoppers the Raiders will be heading back to Hamilton a happy bunch.

Prediction: Cal Poly 27 Colgate 24

Patriot League Preview: Colgate

Colgate Raiders

2016 Record: 5-5 Overall, 4-2 in Patriot League

Head Coach: Dan Hunt 4^th Season (19-17 Overall, 13-5 PL)

Last Patriot League Title: 2015

Last FCS Playoff Appearance: 2015

Key Returning Players

Offense: RB James Holland (Jr.), RB Keyon Washington (Sr.), WR Alex Greenawalt (Sr.), TE Nick Martinsen (Jr.), LT Ryan Paulish (Sr.)

Defense: DE Pat Afriyie (Sr.), LB Trent Williams (Sr.), CB Tyler Castillo (Sr.), FS Alex Wisniewski (Jr.), DB Abdu Damray-Swaray (So.)

2016 Review

Colgate entered 2016 with very high expectations given their run to the quarterfinals in the FCS playoffs the year prior. The strong finish in 2015 paved the way for the Raiders to be ranked in the Top 20 in the major 2016 preseason polls. They were also the odds on favorite to repeat as Patriot League champions. Unfortunately for Colgate, key injuries and a daunting schedule ultimately cost the Raiders a chance to live up to preseason expectations. Despite the obstacles, the Raiders managed to post a 5-5 record and more importantly a 4-2 league record. So while the 2016 seaon was in many ways a disappointment, the Raiders did manage to avoid the dreaded losing season.

The primary factor that allowed Colgate to finish with a .500 record was a pretty stingy defense (23.4 ppg allowed, 2^nd in PL). The strength on “D” was unquestionably the rush defense which ranked #1 in FCS (69.4 ypg allowed). Led by All-American DE Pat Afriyie (21 TFL, 1^st in PL & 4^th nationally) and seniors Alex Campbell and Brett Fields, the defensive line caused opposing offenses trouble all season. As strong as Colgate was against the run, the pass defense was extremely shaky (274.7 ypg allowed, 7^th in PL).

Offensively, QB Jake Melville battled through nagging injuries all year to post a pretty respectable year stat wise. His favorite target in the passing attack was senior John Maddaluna (54 rec 878 yards 5 TD). Melville lost his top running back James Holland against Richmond which was a rather significant blow to Colgate’s read option heavy offensive. Keyon Washington (155 carries 765 yards 5 TD) came in and did a solid job but without Holland and a nicked up Melville, the offense never truly got in sync all season.

2017 Offense

Key Returning Player to Watch: RB James Holland

Freshman to Watch: WR Tre Caine

Colgate’s primary question on offense heading into the season is at quarterback. Jake Melville was a 3 year starter who led the Raiders to the 2015 league title and a quarterfinals appearance in the playoffs. Replacing his arm, his legs and his leadership on and off the field will not be an easy task.

The odds on favorite to assume the starting role in 2017 seems to be junior Sage Attwood. Attwood’s only game action in 2016 came in mop up duty against Syracuse and Yale. Despite his limited experience, he fits the mold of a traditional Colgate QB. ESPN had the Florida native ranked as the 49^th best duel-threat QB in the country coming out of high school. If Attwood were to struggle Coach Hunt will likely turn to sophomore and fellow Floridian Carmine Scarfone. Like Attwood, Scarfone was a highly touted duel-threat QB coming out of the Sunshine State.

Whoever starts the year under center will have the fortune of having a proven commodity at running back to lean on. James Holland returns for the 2017 season after suffering a leg injury that cut last year short. The redshirt junior rushed for 732 and 16 TDs (7^th best in FCS) in 2015. Keyon Washington, who stepped into the starting role in Holland’s absence, might split time between RB and defensive back (played DB in ’15). Even if his role is limited on offense he’s proven to be more than capable of producing when called upon. With Washington’s role cut back, sophomore Alex Matthews and freshman Malik Twyman figure to see time in the backfield. All three backs are on the small side (5’9 and under) so it will be interesting to see what Colgate does in short yardage situations. Colgate averaged 206.6 yards (2^nd in PL) on the ground in 2016.

On paper, the strength of Colgate offense should be the offensive line. 1^st Team All-PL LT Ryan Paulish (6’4 295) anchors an experienced group that will start 4 seniors and 1 junior. Seniors Andy Simms (6’3 285) and Scott Hirshman (6’3 280) seem like a safe bet to nail down the guard positions. The versatile Max Hartzman (6’3 280) will start the year at center but can also play guard if needed. The lone junior starter will likely be Jovaun Woolford (6’5 290). While the line is not overly big, its ability to move and block in space is ideal of Colgate’s style of offense.

Next to quarterback, the biggest question for Colgate on offense resides at wide receiver. The Raiders leading receiver in 2016, Joe Maddaluna, has graduated. Senior Alex Greenawalt (32 rec 411 yards 1 TD) is the most likely WR to assume the role as the #1. Greenawalt (6’3) and his anticipated backup Thomas Ives (6’5) give the Raiders excellent size outside. Owen Rockett (5’9) should get the nod at the other starting position. The shifty Rockett will give defenses quite a bit of trouble in space. Freshman Tre Caine (6’0) has the potential to make some waves early on as well.

Tight end is in excellent “hands” with the return of 2016 Patriot League Second Team selection Nick Martinsen (26 rec 269 yards 3 TD). Sophomore Nick Diaco and Junior Brett Gasiorowski will also see time at Tight End.

Defense

Returning Player to Watch: LB Trent Williams

Freshman to Watch Trevor Thompson

The heart and soul of the Colgate defense is All-American defensive end Pat Afriyie. The senior has a legitimate NFL future. But before he heads to the greener pastures of the pro ranks he still has one more season to terrorize opposing offenses in college. Joining Afriyie upfront will be two new starters, junior NT Caleb Fell and sophomore DE Nick Wheeler. Both players saw limited time in 2016. With the loss of two seniors there figures to be some drop off against the run this year. Still, with a dynamic player like Afriyie garnering so much attention the defensive line should remain quite formidable. One player worth keeping an eye on is 6’1 315 pound reserve NT Cam Rohr. The sophomore could have an impact in short yardage situation.

One area for concern for head coach Dan Hunt and defensive coordinator Paul Shaffner is at linebacker where Colgate must replace 3 out of their 4 starters. Senior Trent Williams (23 solo tackles, 3.5 TFL 1 INT) is the most accomplished returning linebacker. Three juniors, Nick Alverez, T.J. Holl and John Steffen, will likely be the other starters in Colgate’s 3-4 alignment. While the starting LB group might be light on experience they more than make up for it in size with 3 out of the 4 anticipated starters going 230 pounds or more. One player who still has time to fill out is Freshman Trevor Thompson (6’2 215). The Kansas native has the talent to see time early on.

The Raider secondary might be strength of the defense which seems hard to believe given how porous the unit was in 2016. Colgate returns two preseason All-Patriot League cornerbacks in Tony Castillo and Abdu Daramy-Swaray which is a huge boost in a league that boosts some excellent quarterbacks. Ben Hunt IV saw significant time at free safety last year and should get the starting nod again this season. Alec Wisniewski finished 10^th on the team in tackles in 2016 despite not starting a single game at strong safety. Given that, Wisniewski seems like a sure bet to assume the starting role this year. Depth at cornerback could be the lone concern in the defensive backfield. That’s why Keyon Washington has been getting reps at CB.

Special Teams

The Colgate special teams should be a strength in 2017. Punter Josh Cerra ranked 3^rd in the PL (41.5) yards per punt as sophomore. Current sophomore Chris Puzzi is expected to take over field goal duties after doing a great job on kickoffs in 2016. Abdu Daramy-Swaray is an extremely dangerous returner. Don’t be surprised if freshman Tre Caine gets a chance in the return game.

2017 Outlook

Colgate enters 2017 with several talented individual players but a lot of inexperience on both sides of the ball. The quarterback position seems to be biggest question mark right now. Attwood and Scarfone have the resumes but neither possesses game experience to lean on. Given how much Colgate relies on their quarterback to make plays with their arm and legs, whoever emerges as the starter must produce at a high level while protecting the ball. The lack of a true #1 at wide receiver seems a bit concerning as well. Greenawalt has the potential to take over for Madddaluna but with an inexperienced quarterback there’s no certainty that will happen. Colgate will likely lean on the running game and their talented offensive line early in the year.

Defensively, Colgate should remain one of the top units in the league. However, it will likely take a step back stopping run given the graduation of so many key players along the front 7. Afriyie will see double teams consistently until someone else is able to command attention. LB Trent Williams has the potential to be that player. If good health is on Colgate’s side the secondary might be the top unit in the Patriot League with Costillo and Daramy-Swaray being two lock down corners. However, outside of the projected starters there’s a lack of depth and experience.

The schedule is once again brutal. Colgate opens up with 2016 playoff participants Cal Poly and Richmond before heading west on I90 to face FBS Buffalo. The Raiders do get league favorites Lehigh and Fordham home in back-to-back weeks in early October. Split those games and Colgate is almost certainly in the league mix down the stretch. While the schedule is extremely difficult the one positive is the fact that Colgate will once again play an 11 game schedule after going the Ivy League route last year.

2017 Schedule

8/26 @ Cal Poly 4 PM

9/9 Richmond 1 PM

9/16 @ Buffalo 6 PM

9/23 Furman 1 PM

9/30 @ Cornell 1:30 PM

10/7 Lehigh 1 PM

10/14 Fordham 12 PM

10/21 @ Holy Cross 12 PM

10/28 Bucknell 1 PM

11/11 @ Lafayette 12:30 PM

11/18 @ Georgetown 1 PM

2017 Projection: 6-5 Overall, 4-2 in Patriot League

2017 OVC Previews: Tennessee State

Tennessee State

2016 Record: 7-4 (4-3 OVC)

Key Players: DL Ebenezer Ogundeko, QB Treon Harris, WR Patrick Smith

The conference underachievers. It seems lately that Tennessee State has had the talent and the roster to make a serious run at the FCS playoffs but somehow always manages to drop games against teams they should be beating handily. Last season, for example, the Tigers had their best opportunity in years to capture a share of their first conference title since 1999 with a great roster and Jacksonville State absent from the schedule and the Tigers went on to underperform and finish the season with a 4-3 conference record. Now, the 1-point loss to EIU in Charleston I can understand, but losing to Murray State and getting BLOWN OUT by Tech at home? Come on now. That said, this year’s edition of the Tigers looks even better than last year’s crew, however, I’m still skeptical.

Florida transfer Treon Harris will likely start for the Tigers this season

Despite the departure of All-American tackle Jessamen Dunker, the offense looks to be better this year due to the addition of Florida QB transfer Treon Harris. Pair that with the best receiver in the league, Patrick Smith, and you have yourself duo. On the offensive line, the Tigers will have to replace not only Jessamen Dunker, but also Kevin Kenton. Having an experienced running back like Erick Evans should help alleviate some of the pressure of Treon Harris while the offensive line finds its new rhythm. Another asset at Harris’ disposal is a deep pool of receiving threats. Headlined by pre-season OPOY Patrick Smith, this edition of the Tigers receiving corps looks to be one of the deepest units in recent memory with 5 of 6 guys on the WR/TE two deep from last year returning.

Ebenezer Ogundeko will spend his senior year terrorizing opposing quarterbacks

On defense is where the Tigers really need to buckle down and build some continuity. Having 8 starters returning, including preseason All-American Ebenezer Ogundeko, is a good place to start. The Tigers may be the deepest defense in the OVC behind Jacksonville State as they only lost three guys off their two-deep lineup from last year to graduation. The returning experience could work one of two ways for TSU: it could either mean that with an extra year of experience under their belt, the young defense could see more consistent performance this season OR it could just mean more of what we got last year and the Tigers will be giving up 30+ a game again.

The other bright spot for the Tigers is on special teams. With All-American Lane Clark returning the Tigers have easily the best kicking game in the conference.

The Tigers will open their season at Georgia State on Thursday, August 31^st at 6PM CST.