Kris & Lance take a look around at the Big South, NEC, OVC, Patriot, & Pioneer playoff probabilities with the various teams before moving on to preview these big FCS games this weekend.
Villanova @ James Madison
North Dakota State @ Youngstown State
Montana State @ Eastern Washington
Southern Utah @ Weber State
New Hampshire @ Stony Brook
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Week 6 finally brought some much needed drama to the 2017 Patriot League season. The Colgate-Lehigh and Fordham-Lafayette games were filled with big plays and large swings in momentum before the outcomes were decided in the final seconds. Ultimately, Lafayette and Lehigh escaped with huge league wins. For the Leopards, it was their second thrilling win a row. Meanwhile, Lehigh’s victory over Colgate could be what propels the preseason league favorite to another title run. Lafayette and Lehigh meet for 153rd time on November 18th.
In non-conference action, things weren’t nearly as exciting. Monmouth used a 3rd quarter surge to race past Holy Cross 48-36. With the victory over the Crusaders, Monmouth went a perfect 4 for 4 against the Patriot League this season. Georgetown capped the ugliness by allowing Princeton to score 50 unanswered points in a 50-30 loss. The Hoyas scored the first 10 points and the last 20 points of the game but were M.I.A the rest of the time.
Lehigh 41 Colgate 38
Thanks to a slew of timely penalties that negated three Colgate (2-4, 0-1) touchdowns, Lehigh (1-5, 1-0) was able to escape Hamilton, NY with their first victory of the year. The first penalty took Owen Rockett’s 93 yard kickoff return touchdown off the board. Had it stood the Raiders likely take a commanding 35-21 lead into halftime. The other penalties wiped out two second half Grant Breneman touchdown passes. To throw salt in the wound, there was a costly unsportsmanlike penalty late in the game that erased a first down deep in Lehigh territory. Lehigh’s offense also added to the Raiders misery. Colgate simply could not slow down the Mountain Hawks balanced attack. After tallying a school record 9 sacks last week, the Raider defense managed only one against Lehigh. Colgate did outgain Lehigh overall, 537 yards to 507.
Lehigh got on the board first when Micco Brisker (7 rushes 34 yards 3 TDs) powered in from 2 yards out to give the Mountain Hawks a 7-0 lead with 8:34 remaining in the opening quarter. The Raiders tied it up 4 minutes later when Breneman (18-22 316 yards 2 TDs, 64 yards rushing 1 TD) connected with Brett Gasiorowski for a short 4 yard TD toss. Lehigh took a 14-7 lead late in 1st quarter before Colgate would respond with 3 straight touchdown drives in 2nd to go up 28-14. The Mountain Hawks were able to close to within 7 points at half thanks to a Brad Mayes (22-30 297 yards 2 TDs) to Dom Bragalone 35 yard touchdown pass. After half time Bragalone (25 carries 186 yards 1 TD) busted loose for a game tying 53 yard TD run. It would prove to be the only points of the 3rd quarter. Colgate retook the lead when Breneman connected with Tre Caine for a 66 yard TD strike early in the 4th quarter. Lehigh answered with a 7 play 75 yard TD drive to once again even the score. Colgate would take a brief 38-35 lead thanks to Chris Puzzi’s 27 yard FG. On the ensuing drive, Lehigh marched 75 yards in less than 2 minutes to notch what would end up being the game winning TD. Mayes hit Pelletier (8 rec 132 yards 1 TD) from 35 yards out for the score. Alex Mathew’s (27 carries 137 yards 2 TDs) fumble at the Lehigh 30 yard with 1:49 remaining in regulation is what ultimately sealed the Raiders fate.
Up Next: Lehigh returns to Goodman Stadium to take on Georgetown. The Mountain Hawks have never lost to the Hoyas in Patriot League competition. Colgate will look to bounce back against a floundering Fordham team. The Raiders upset the Rams 2 years ago at Andy Kerr on their way to the league championship.
Princeton 50 Georgetown 30
Georgetown (1-4, 0-0) had by far their best offensive output of the season but they still came up 20 points short against Princeton (3-1) on a hot October afternoon in Central New Jersey. The Hoyas entered their battle with the Tigers averaging 9.5 points a game. The good news is they managed to exceed that average during the first 8 minutes of action on Saturday. The bad news is the Tigers would proceed to score the game’s next 50 points! It was the Hoya’s third straight (Columbia, Harvard & Princeton) decisive loss to foes from the Ancient 8. The only real positive that can be taken away from this loss is the fact the team did not quit. As a result, the Hoya’s were able to put up 3 fourth quarter touchdowns to make the score a little more respectable.
The Hoyas went on a 75 yard, 12 play touchdown drive on their opening possession of the game to take a 7-0 lead a little less than 5 minutes into the game. Alex Valles’s 4 yard TD run finished off the impressive drive. Brad Hurst’s 36 yard FG at the 7:41 mark of the 1st quarter extended the Hoya advantage to 10-0. Following Hurst’s FG Princeton would put their foot down and take control of the game. Tiger quarterback Chad Kanoff got the party started with a 13 yard TD strike to the dangerous Jesper Horsted. Princeton’s defense would make their presence felt by notching a safety. Kurt Holuba and Mike Wagner worked together to sack Hoya QB Cole Norris (12-20 109 yards 1 INT) in the endzone for the 2 points. Princeton then took advantage of the extra offensive possession by going on a brisk 5 play 53 yard TD drive. Charlie Volker capped it with a 1 yard TD to give the Tigers a 17-10 lead (2pt conversion good) as time expired in the opening quarter. Kanoff’s second TD pass of the game at the 10:46 mark of the 2nd stanza extended the Tiger’s lead to 24-10. The backbreaker came less than a minute later when CJ Wall pick sixed Chad Norris’s pass to give Princeton a commanding 31-10 advantage. Following Norris’s interception Hoya head coach Rob Sgarlata gave sophomore quarterback Gunther Johnson (13-22 149 yards) the chance to finish out the game. While Johnson did some nice things he couldn’t prevent Princeton from blowing the game wide open.
Up Next: Georgetown travels to Bethlehem, PA to take on Lehigh. The Hoyas have never beaten (0-16) the Mountain Hawks in Patriot League play.
Monmouth 48 Holy Cross 36
Monmouth (4-1) completed the 4 game sweep of their Patriot League competition this season by taking down Holy Cross (2-4, 1-1) by 12 points in Worcester. The Hawks beat all four of their Patriot League opponents by double digits. Monmouth had this game well in hand before the Crusaders put up three 4th quarter touchdowns to make the score look more respectable. Peter Pujals set a school record for passing yards (509) in a single game in the loss. Holy Cross put up a staggering 640 total yards and 34 first downs yet came up on the losing end. The Crusaders have now lost 3 straight games since their dominating win over New Hampshire earned them a spot in the national rankings. If Holy Cross wants to get things turned around Coach Gilmore must find some consistency on offense and defense. Both units have been widely inconsistent the last 3 weeks which has led to the losing streak.
Holy Cross was able to take the early lead against Monmouth thanks to A.J. Wells’s 33 yard FG. The game would remain 3-0 until the 11:26 mark of the second quarter. That’s when Monmouth’s Eric Zokouri scored from a yard out to give the Hawks a 7-3 advantage. Monmouth would extend their lead to 14-3 on Kenji Bahar’s 13 yard touchdown pass to Reggie White Jr. Pujals’s 4 yard TD scamper with 1:23 left in the 2nd quarter before cut the Hawk lead to 14-10. Monmouth would respond with a crisp 7 play 78 yard touchdown drive in 62 seconds to push the score to 21-10. Holy Cross would get the ball back with 16 seconds left before half and instead of taking a knee Coach Gilmore opted to attack. It paid off when Pujals’s 49 yard Hail Mary ended up in the hands of Tenio Ayeni. For whatever reason, the Crusaders could not carry over the positive momentum into the second half. Instead, Monmouth would seize control of the game by outscoring Holy Cross 20-0 in the 3rd quarter.
Up Next: Holy Cross heads to New Haven, CT to battle Yale. Surprisingly, it will be the first meeting between the two New England schools since 2008.
Lafayette 14 Fordham 10
Lafayette (2-4, 2-0) scored their second head turning league win in a row by knocking out the staggering Fordham Rams (1-5, 0-1) 14-10 on perfect night for football in Eastern, PA. A week after suffocating Peter Pujals and the Holy Cross offense, the Leopard defense put forth another excellent performance against Fordham to pave the way for victory. The turnaround by Lafayette, especially on defense, is shocking when you consider just how bad they started the year in blowout losses to Monmouth, Villanova and Princeton. The “step down” in competition has certainly helped the Leopard’s cause but that’s not the only reason for the improvement. Brandon Bryant (13 solo tackles against Fordham) and the rest of the talented defense have started to live up to preseason expectations. If the offense (-5 total rushing yards) can improve just a modest amount, Lafayette might pull off the most shocking turnaround in league history. Meanwhile, Fordham’s mind boggling fall from grace continues with no real end in sight.
Stout defense and missed field goals by both teams led to a scoreless first quarter. Fordham was finally able to crack the code early in the 2nd quarter when Kevin Anderson (29-47 277 1 TD 1 INT) found Austin Longi for a 12 yard touchdown. The scoring opportunity was setup when Bryce Petty had a lengthy return following a blocked field goal. The Rams extended their lead to two possessions with 3:50 remaining in the 3rd quarter when Andrew Melvis’s 22 yard FG capped a marathon 18 play 86 yard drive that consumed over 9 minutes of game clock. Lafayette would then ride two O’Malley (29-41 256 yards 2 TDs) to Rocco Palumbo (9 rec 129 yards 2 TD) touchdown passes to a 14-10 lead. The go ahead 63 yard touchdown strike came with 5:06 remaining in regulation. Fordham had an excellent chance to regain the lead with a little over 3 minutes left but Anderson missed Longi on the same play on 3rd and 4th down at the Lafayette 10 yard line. Longi was especially wide open on the 4th down play when Anderson air mailed the pass. Fordham got one more chance but Anderson’s Hail Mary barely eluded a Ram receiver in the end zone.
Both Anderson and Edmonds (23 carries 78 yards) battled through injuries in the loss. Edmonds appeared to re-injure his ankle late in the game but continued to play. Anderson was fighting a hand or wrist injury.
Up Next: Lafayette travels to Cambridge to take on Harvard for their final out of conference game of the year. Fordham will be making the 4 hour trek to Hamilton, NY to take on Colgate in a de-facto league title elimination game.
Power Rankings
Kris & Lance roll on through the FCS in the week 6 recap taking a look back at these big games from last weekend.
Northern Arizona 37 Illinois State 16
South Dakota 31 Youngstown State 28
Wofford 35 Western Carolina 28
Delaware 24 Stony Brook 20
Eastern Washington 41 UC-Davis 38
Richmond 41 Albany 38
If you had 1’s & 8’s on the money boards this weekend you did well for yourself.
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Week 6 came and went with five really close games and one blowout. The blowout, was both completely unexpected and in favor of the unlikely side. Northern Arizona’s dominant win over previously #8 Illinois State is such a statement game for their season going forward. Their conference schedule avoids both Weber State and Eastern Washington and they get Montana State and UC-Davis at home. They just may be the new favorites to take the title, and the win does put them atop the power rankings for the week. There are about 4 groups right now: the favorites, the lurkers, the faders, and the ‘help, I’ve fallen and I can’t get up.’
Favorites – 1. Northern Arizona 2. Weber State 3. Eastern Washington
Lurkers – 4. Montana State 5. Montana 6. UC-Davis 7. Sacramento State 8. Southern Utah
Faders – 9. Idaho State 10. North Dakota 11. Northern Colorado
LifeAlert – 12. Portland State 13. Cal Poly
Montana State 30 Portland State 22
To say it was a breezy day in Bozeman would be an understatement. The gusts were hovering around 30 mph and even playing fits with the broadcast of the game. This played to Montana State’s strength as they ran for 403 yards on 57 attempts. Give credit to the Vikings and Josh Kraght, who started his career as a QB, transitioned to WR, and now is playing QB again. Even with the wind, he racked up 317 passing yards and zero interceptions, keeping the game from getting too out of hand.
Key Plays:
Down 16-7 early in the third quarter, PSU punter Hayden Cowden mishandled a snap and fumbled, leading to Chad Kanow falling on the ball in the endzone for a Bobcat touchdown.
Up 23-14 early in the fourth quarter, MSU made another statement on special teams when Connor Sullivan blocked a punt. The Bobcats took over at the PSU 26 yard line and scored two plays later.
Leaders:
MSU QB Chris Murray – 18 rushes, 126 yards, 2 TDs
PSU TE Charlie Taumoepeau – 5 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs
Northern Arizona 37 #8 Illinois State 16
As mentioned at the top, the Lumberjacks roughed up the Redbirds for one of the biggest non-conference wins in their program history. Illinois State came into the game with their defense being their strength, but it was NAU who played the best on defense. The Lumberjacks held ISU without a TD the first 52 minutes of the game, kept them under 300 yards of offense, and stopped the run limiting them to just 2.2 yards per carry. They also recorded 5 sacks. After a slow start, the offense showed up as well with 31 points in the last 31 minutes of the game.
Key Plays:
With the game tied with less than a minute left in the first half, QB Case Cookus found WR Elijah Marks open on the right sideline for a 32 yard TD pass.
Ahead 20-6 early in the second half, WR Chancellor Brewington rolled around behind the QB taking a pitch, but instead of getting to the corner, he passed it back to QB Cookus, who followed blockers to the end zone.
Leaders:
NAU QB Case Cookus – 26-45 for 380 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
NAU WR Elijah Marks – 8 receptions, 130 yards, 1 TD
ISU WR Spencer Schnell – 7 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD
Southern Utah 20 Cal Poly 14
The Thunderbirds desperately needed this win to save face after a very embarrassing loss to Sacramento State two weeks ago. Their run defense was decimated that game, but they improved against the Mustangs, holding the triple option attack to less than 5 yards per carry. Yes, that’s not great, and yes, Cal Poly QB Khaleel Jenkins was out with an injury, but it’s still a step in the right direction. Take away a Kyle Lewis 73 yard run, and Cal Poly would have averaged 3.4 yards per carry.
Key Plays:
Kyle Lewis took off on a 73 yard TD run to give Cal Poly the early lead and quiet the record crowd in Cedar City.
Less than three minutes later, SUU responded with a Jay Green 55 yard TD run to take back the lead for good.
Leaders:
SUU QB Patrick Tyler – 23-30 for 223 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
SUU LB Chinedu Ahanonu – 11 solo tackles, 15 total, 1.5 TFL, 1 FF
CP RB Jared Mohamed – 29 carries, 135 yards
North Dakota 48 Northern Colorado 38
The Bears looked to be in good form after a late win over Idaho State, but they’ve followed that up with an ugly loss to NAU and a disappointing loss to UND. For UND, they have been decimated by injury all across the defense and the offensive line. They still have their veteran playmakers, though, and they finally stepped up. QB Keaton Studsrud showed some not so common dual threat ability all game and both John Santiago and Brady Oliveira combined for 179 yards on the ground. After falling way behind early, UNC made things competitive and even took the lead at one point, but at the end of the first half, they lost star QB Jacob Knipp to injury.
Key Plays:
Early in the first quarter, QB Keaton Studsrud put UND on the board early with a 41 yard TD run.
To stop the bleeding, Khairi Bailey got UNC back within 11 points with a 25-yard fumble recovery return for a TD making the score 28-17.
Up 41-38 on third and goal late in the 4th quarter, Travis Toivonen scored on a 5-yard TD run to cement UND’s victory.
Leaders:
UND QB Keaton Studsrud – 17-23 for 248 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT – 10 carries, 97 yards, 1 TD
UND RB Brady Oliveira – 18 carries, 109 yards
Montana 39 Idaho State 31
This was a true back and forth affair in Pocatello with 4 lead changes and 10 combined TDs. Idaho State took advantage of a couple early UM miscues to take the lead in the second quarter. Brother tandem of QB Tanner Gueller and WR Mitch Gueller hooked up for 127 yards and 2 TDs in the first half. Montana stepped up the defense in the second half and kept the offense rolling, led by QB Gresch Jensen who recorded his first turnover free game since taking over at QB. Yes, they gave up a lot of yards, but the Griz defense also recorded 6 sacks.
Key Plays:
Immediately following a Montana TD, Tanner Gueller found Mitch Gueller for a 75 yard TD pass to take a 14-13 lead in the second quarter. Six minutes later after a Jeremy Calhoun fumble, the Gueller brothers teamed up again for a 13 yard TD pass and catch to go up 21-13.
The Grizzlies started the second half with a quick score of their own after a Tanner Gueller lost fumble. QB Gresch Jensen passed to WR Justin Calhoun for a 35 yard score to make the score 21-19.
On their next three offensive drives, Gresch Jensen completed long passes of 71, 46, and 41 yards to Samori Toure, Justin Calhoun, and Samuel Akem respectively to get within the ISU red zone. Montana scored a TD soon after on each of those drives turning a 9 point deficit into an 11 point lead.
Leaders:
UM QB Gresch Jensen – 23-35 for 360 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
UM DE Jesse Sims – 8 total tackles, 2.5 sacks
ISU QB Tanner Gueller – 25-40 for 359 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
ISU WR Mitch Gueller – 9 receptions, 188 yards, 2 TDs
Eastern Washington 41 UC-Davis 38
To one-up the Montana/ISU game this matchup featured 5 lead changes and 79 combined points. The battle between two of the top quarterbacks in not just the conference but also the country proved to be just as good as advertised. The two combined for 819 passing yards and 8 TDs. The game was relatively low scoring through three quarters, but Eastern erupted for 3 touchdowns in the fourth and hung on for the win after the Aggies 49 yard field goal attempt missed wide right. It was a game of errors for the kicking unit who missed two field goals and had another one blocked. Eastern didn’t play their best, but they escaped with a win.
Key Plays:
Down 11 in the fourth quarter, Gage Gubrud found Nsimba Webster for a 71 yard TD pass. After a quick Davis 3 and out, Gubrud moved the ball downfield again and TE Talolo Limu-Jones recorded a 6 yard TD reception to give Eastern Washington the lead.
UC-Davis responded with an 11 play, 76-yard drive capped off by CJ Spencer’s third rushing TD of the day.
Eastern punched back with a 12 play, 75-yard drive. On 3rd and goal, Gubrud lobbed a perfect pass to Nic Sblendorio in the corner of the end zone to take the lead for good.
Leaders:
EWU QB Gage Gubrud – 33-53 for 452 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs
UCD QB Jake Maier – 35-55 for 367 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
UCD WR Keelan Doss – 15 receptions, 208 yards, 1 TD
The AGS rankings in week 6 weren’t as topsy turvy as they have been over the last couple weeks with a few exceptions. As they have in every poll so far this year James Madison and North Dakota State came in at #1 and #2, respectively. After cracking the top 5 for the first time ever last week South Dakota moved up to #3 (and also received 5 first place votes) following their big home win over previously top 5 ranked Youngstown State. Jacksonville State stayed at #4 and Wofford moved into the top 5 for the first time this year coming in at #5.
There weren’t any real big risers this week as numerous teams moved up a spot or 3. That is until we got to the new additions in the poll. Northern Arizona moved up 11 spots into the top 25 at #21 following their upset win over Illinois State. Traditional FCS power Delaware also cracked the top 25 for the first time this season moving up 5 spots to #23 as they look to recapture some of their former glory under first year head coach Danny Rocco. It was apparently a week for the FCS old guard as Montana also cracked the top 25 for the first time all year rising 8 spots to come in at #25.
Youngstown State moved down 4 spots to #7 after their close road loss to #3 USD. Illinois State took the biggest tumble of the week dropping 8 spots into a tie with NC A&T at #16 after their aforementioned loss to Northern Arizona. Stony Brook dropped 6 spots down to #24 following their loss to Delaware. The Citadel, Albany, and Maine all dropped out of the top 25 after each sustained losses this last Saturday.
The CAA once again led the way placing 7 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the MVFC with 6, the Big Sky with 4, and the SOCON and Southland who each had 3 teams each in the top 25.
Full results below:
| Rank | Team | Total Points | First Place Votes |
| 1 | James Madison Dukes | 2036 | 71 |
| 2 | North Dakota State Bison | 1970 | 6 |
| 3 | South Dakota Coyotes | 1832 | 5 |
| 4 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 1782 | |
| 5 | Wofford Terriers | 1637 | |
| 6 | Central Arkansas Bears | 1553 | |
| 7 | Youngstown State Penguins | 1548 | |
| 8 | South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 1479 | |
| 9 | Sam Houston State Bearkats | 1310 | |
| 10 | Western Illinois Leathernecks | 1242 | |
| 11 | Eastern Washington Eagles | 1165 | |
| 12 | Villanova Wildcats | 1066 | |
| 13 | Elon Phoenix | 1047 | |
| 14 | Weber State Wildcats | 1019 | |
| 15 | New Hampshire Wildcats | 810 | |
| 16T | Illinois State Redbirds | 753 | |
| 16T | North Carolina A&T Aggies | 753 | |
| 18 | Richmond Spiders | 699 | |
| 19 | Samford Bulldogs | 567 | |
| 20 | Western Carolina Catamounts | 453 | |
| 21 | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 366 | |
| 22 | McNeese State Cowboys | 325 | |
| 23 | Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens | 321 | |
| 24 | Stony Brook Seawolves | 195 | |
| 25 | Montana Grizzlies | 147 | |
| ORV: | |||
| 26 | Albany Great Danes | 133 | |
| 27 | Dartmouth Big Green | 96 | |
| 28 | Grambling State Tigers | 93 | |
| 29 | Monmouth Hawks | 70 | |
| 30 | Nicholls State Colonels | 45 | |
| 31 | The Citadel Bulldogs | 42 | |
| 32 | Montana State Bobcats | 27 | |
| 33 | North Carolina Central Eagles | 17 | |
| 34 | Furman Paladins | 11 | |
| 35 | Tennessee State Tigers | 10 | |
| 36 | UC Davis Aggies | 8 | |
| 37 | Columbia Lions | 6 | |
| 38 | Eastern Illinois Panthers | 5 | |
| 39 | Kennessaw State Owls | 3 | |
| 40 | Maine Black Bears | 2 |
Most Significant Win: South Dakota Coyotes
Most Significant Loss: Illinois State Redbirds
Join the discussion at: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197111-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-5-10-09-2017
Well, as I’m writing most of this, it’s 12:30 AM Sunday morning, I just got back from watching my Leathernecks give me a heart attack against Northern Iowa, and I was driving, so I’m still awake from some later-than-usual caffeine. I must say…this was an interesting week…assuming you like a bit of chaos with your football, right?
Now that we’re a couple of weeks into conference season, I think we can start looking at conference standings, where teams are in relation to being set up for a playoff spot or if they’re already out of the picture. I’ll list the team, then overall record, conference record, and then each team’s remaining 6 games of the regular season.
| School | Overall | Conference | Remaining 6 Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 5-0 | 2-0 | @YSU, WIU, UNI, @SDSU, USD, @ILSU |
| South Dakota | 5-0 | 2-0 | INSU, @ILSU, SIU, @UNI, @NDSU, SDSU |
| Illinois State | 4-1 | 2-0 | @SIU, USD, @YSU, WIU, @SDSU, NDSU |
| South Dakota State | 4-1 | 1-1 | UNI, @MSU, @WIU, NDSU, ILSU, @USD |
| Western Illinois | 4-1 | 1-1 | MSU, @NDSU, SDSU, @ILSU, @INSU, SIU |
| Youngstown State | 3-2 | 1-1 | NDSU, @UNI, ILSU, @INSU, @SIU, MSU |
| Northern Iowa | 2-3 | 1-1 | @SDSU, YSU, @NDSU, USD, @MSU, INSU |
| Southern Illinois | 2-3 | 0-2 | ILSU, @INSU, @USD, MSU, YSU, @WIU |
| Missouri State | 1-4 | 0-2 | @WIU, SDSU, @INSU, @SIU, UNI, @YSU |
| Indiana State | 0-5 | 0-2 | @USD, SIU, @MSU, YSU, WIU, @UNI |
For reference, in recent history, I believe only one 8-DI-win MVFC team has been excluded from the playoffs (YSU in 2013, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season, but was tied with 3 other MVFC teams at 5-3 in the conference). In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.
Personally, given where teams are right now and who they have yet to play, I think that NDSU and USD are both solidly in the playoffs. SDSU, WIU, and YSU all have a strong shot at an at-large playoff spot if they are able to win the games they’re “expected” to. ILSU, UNI, and SIU are both going to have to work hard and pull off an upset or two to get an invite (even though ILSU is 4-1, they have to face a “murderer’s row” of the top MVFC teams assuming they beat SIU next weekend). MSU could technically still make it if they win out, but with games at WIU and YSU, and home against SDSU, that sure doesn’t look very likely. INSU can finish as high as 6-5 if they win out…so…unless NDSU accidentally left their entire team in Terre Haute and the Sycamores are able to sign them all up to play for them, there’s pretty much no chance.
The Bison blank the Sycamores!
No. 2 North Dakota State wins its #FCS-best 11th consecutive true road game, defeating Indiana State 52-0 pic.twitter.com/Vd0Awfn1Dn
— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) October 7, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| NDSU | 7 | 17 | 21 | 7 | 52 |
| INSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Quick Hits:
Did anyone really expect anything different? Indiana State has had a couple of strong performances OOC, but it’s apparent by now that INSU just doesn’t have the team to do well in the MVFC this year. NDSU built a 24-0 lead in the first half and exploded for 21 points in the 3rd, assisted by two interceptions against Sycamore QB Cade Sparks. By the end of the 3rd, NDSU had pulled their starters and spent the rest of the game getting experience for their second string.
North Dakota State moves to 5-0 on the season and will have a tough matchup at 3-2 Youngstown State next weekend.
Indiana State falls to 0-5 and will take on 5-0 South Dakota in Vermillion…Sycamore fans…you have my condolences.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Bison by 30
It was: Bison by 52
Fine…ok…we get it…your team is freakishly good. I knew it’d pretty much be a blowout, but seriously? You gotta completely shut out a conference foe while putting up over 50 points on them…at their place? That’s cold.
COYOTES DEFEND THE DAKOTADOME!
No. 6 South Dakota tops No. 3 Youngstown State, 31-28, in a MVFC thriller! pic.twitter.com/V3JbRpRDNr
— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) October 7, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| YSU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| USD | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
Quick Hits:
Well, the AGS Game of the Week certainly lived up to the hype. It was a close game the whole way with USD mostly ahead, but YSU staying with them until the end. USD had a 7 point lead at halftime and would eventually open up a 14-point lead in the 3rd before YSU would battle back, eventually tying it up with less than 4 minutes left in the game. The 29-yard FG with 7 seconds left would give the Coyotes the huge Homecoming win and their first 5-0 start since 2005, back in their DII days.
Youngstown State is now 3-2 and it won’t get any easier, hosting the always tough 5-0 NDSU Bison team in Youngstown next weekend.
South Dakota takes another step forward moving to 5-0. Next up for the Coyotes, another home game, this time against 0-5 Indiana State.
My pick in Review:
I said: Coyotes by 3
It was: Coyotes by 3
What did I say…what did I freakin’ say. The Yotes are for real this year. They keep playing like this and there’s very few teams that are going to be able to stop them. Assuming Streveler doesn’t get bent in half at some point, I forsee a likely 10-1 regular season record in their future.
STUNNER IN CEDAR FALLS!
No. 18 Western Illinois stuns No. 21 UNI, 38-29, scoring two touchdowns in the final 10 seconds #FCS #W1U pic.twitter.com/T4zdRnyEJB
— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) October 8, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| WIU | 3 | 2 | 13 | 20 | 38 |
| UNI | 0 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 29 |
Quick Hits:
The Leathernecks continue to show that they’re mostly a second-half team, with UNI holding a 14-5 lead at the half, then putting up 13 points in the 3rd to take the 18-14 lead. From there, UNI kicked their offense into high gear, throwing successfully on (what seemed like) nearly every down, fighting back and taking a 29-25 lead with just over a minute left in the game. WIU was able to come back though, at one point converting a 4th and 15, and take the lead back with a TD with 6 seconds left. On the kickoff, the UNI returner fumbled the ball right into the hands of WIU LB Michael Bishoff who took it back 20 yards for a TD with no time left. So, despite the 9-point differential, it was a close game right up to the end.
Western Illinois recovers from the loss last week and is now 4-1. They’ll head back home and bring 1-4 Missouri State to town next weekend.
Northern Iowa drops to 2-3 and is seeing their playoff hopes quickly slip away. The Panthers have a difficult matchup ahead at 4-1 South Dakota State.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Leathernecks by 6
It was: Leathernecks by 9
If I told you that, with 44 seconds left in the game, UNI with all the momentum, WIU with the ball just 1 yard into UNI territory, 4th and 15, down 29-25…what would you think the score could end up being…do a bit of mental math. 29-25 final?..likely. 32-29 WIU win?…possible. How about 38-29 WIN win?…yea…it was just that kind of weird game. Only 3 points off on my pick though, so that’s a win.
Jacks bounce back!
No. 9 South Dakota State jumps all over Southern Illinois, 49-14 #FCS #GoJacks pic.twitter.com/Yl6zV56nHj
— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) October 8, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| SIU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| SDSU | 14 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 49 |
Quick Hits:
Quick start for the Jackrabbits after not doing much last week. By halftime, they had already built a 35-0 lead, and held pretty much the same margin the rest of the game.
Southern Illinois falls to 2-3 and hosts the 4-1 Illinois State Redbirds next weekend.
South Dakota State is a solid 4-1 and brings 2-3 Northern Iowa to town for Hobo Days (that’s their “Homecoming”) next Saturday.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Jackrabbits by 14
It was: Jackrabbits by 35
I was kinda attributing the lack of offensive production last week to a combination of both SDSU’s offense being down and YSU’s defense being really good. It looks like SDSU’s run game is solid. The passing game was still down, but the run game more than made up for it this time. I knew it’d be a big win for the Jackrabbits, but they pulled ahead quite a bit faster than I was expecting. Still a solid pick.
HOME SWEET DOME!
The Lumberjacks chop No. 7 Illinois State, 37-16, for the NAU’s 1st win against a MVFC opponent since 2013 #FCS #NAUStrong pic.twitter.com/MjISMvcYwE
— FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) October 8, 2017
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Final | |
| ILSU | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| NAU | 0 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 37 |
Quick Hits:
The NAU defense did surprisingly (for me) well in this game. I know that Cookus has been getting better throughout the season, but did not expect the defense that allowed Western Illinois to put up 38 points a month ago to hold what was supposed to be a similarly explosive Illinois State offense to only 16 points. The 3 INTs really helped with that. NAU built a narrow 7-pt lead in the first half, but was able to pretty much move the ball at will against the ISU defense with two TDs in the 3rd. In the 4th, ISU QB Kolbe threw two picks which allowed NAU to put up 10 more points, meanwhile, the Redbirds wouldn’t find the end zone until just over 8 minutes left in the game.
Illinois State loses their first game of the season and are 4-1 overall. The Redbirds will be on the road again (but a much shorter trip) heading down to Carbondale to face off with the 2-3 Salukis next weekend.
Northern Arizona gets above .500 to a 3-2 record. Up next for NAU, it’s back to Big Sky play with a road game at 0-5 Portland State.
My Pick in Review:
I said: Redbirds by 18
It was: Lumberjacks by 21
I’m not sure there’s a more “wrong” that I could be without getting a time machine, going back 101 years (+ a few days) and putting money on Cumberland to beat Georgia Tech. Redbirds got ‘jacked…and not in a good way.
I was 27-8 in my picks this season going into this week. This week was a decent 4-1 for me…pretty much nailed the two close games too (by sheer luck). That puts me at 31-9 for the season so far.
Next week, the obvious “big game” in the conference is NDSU at YSU. Will YSU rebound from a loss at the DakotaDome? Will NDSU prove that their 5-0 start is not just due to the fluke of a fairly easy early-season schedule? This will be a big one to watch for a lot of people. Other than that, I’m also pretty interested to see how UNI matches up with SDSU, mostly so I can get a handle on how my Leathernecks might match up with SDSU. Western is home against Missouri State, so I’ll be there, tracking the other scores on my phone. Check back later this week for my full preview of all of the Week 7 games in the MVFC.
It was another exciting week on the gridiron in the Southern Conference and the race for the crown became a little bit clearer. Wofford remains undefeated with a victory over Western Carolina in OT. They remain atop the standings now with WCU, Samford, and Furman all nipping at their heels. Samford easily handled VMI. Chattanooga loss to Furman and The Citadel’s loss to Mercer push both the Mocs and the Bulldogs down into the third tier for now, along with Mercer at 2 conference losses each. ETSU got as nice home victory in an out of conference game over Robert Morris.
I am happy to announce that this week we will have the insightful analysis of AGS’s Young Terrier as he contributes the reviews for the Wofford/WCU and Furman/UTC games.
I am going to apologize for not having the Samford/VMI and ETSU/Robert Morris game summaries up. I have a personal crisis to attend and will try and get something up in the next couple days. Suffice it to say that Samford took care of business and even ran quite a bit (for them), which was good news for the Bulldog faithful. ETSU also took care of business and had a better day on defense as they took Robert Morris fairly easily.
#6Wofford 35 #20WCU 28 OT (box score)
The SOCON game of the week lived up to its hype as the game couldn’t be settled in regulation. The Western Carolina Catamounts came to Gibbs Stadium with their high-octane offense to face the grinding defense of the Wofford Terriers. The key to this game was Wofford’s ability to hold onto the football and minimize mistakes. After winning the turnover battle 3-1, possessing the ball for 36 minutes and rushing for 393 yards, they were successful.
The Catamounts received the ball first and quickly moved 27 yards up the field before a Tyrie Adams pass was batted and intercepted by linebacker Colton Clemons. The Terriers were able to grind the ball for 39 yards on 9 plays before stalling inside the 5 and settling for a Luke Carter field goal, putting them ahead 3-0. The Catamounts answered fast with Adams finding Jordan Mathis for a 17 yard touchdown, capping a 5-play, 77 yard drive in less than two minutes, bringing the score 7-3. The two teams exchanged punts for their next two possessions. Then, Wofford’s Blake Morgan took a late pitch into the end zone to put the Terriers up 10-7. Momentum was squarely in the Terrier’s corner as they forced a three and out, but it was soon sucked away as Western Carolina’s Marvin Tillman forced and recovered a fumble on a Joe Newman option-pitch at the 10 yard line. Provided a short field, Tyrie Adams scored 2 plays later on a 7-yard run. Momentum appeared to be with the Catamount as a few Wofford penalties forced the Terriers to punt on their next possession, but George Gbesee intercepted an underthrown Adams pass, giving Wofford the ball at midfield with less than 45 seconds remaining. Senior Quarterback Brandon Goodson showed his experience and put the Terriers in scoring position, however Wofford penalties kept them out of the end zone. The Terriers settled for a field goal, heading into the locker room down 14-13.
The Terriers received the second half kickoff and drove the ball inside the redzone, but not content with field goals, turned the ball over on downs. Western Carolina then methodically drove down field and scored on 38 yard touchdown pass from Tyrie Adams to Terryon Robinson, pushing the lead to 21-13. Not to be dismayed, the Wofford offense answered the bell, driving 72 yards for the tying touchdown and two point conversion. Fullback Andre Stoddard finished the day with 157 yards on 21 carries, 47 of which came on that drive.
As the fourth quarter began, Western Carolina was once again able to drive down field, but had to settle for a 40 yard field goal that their kicker Will Horton missed. Assuming possession with the football and momentum, Wofford pounded the Catamounts with their fullback. On the ensuing 13 play, 77-yard drive, fullbacks Andre Stoddard and Chase Nelson combined for 39 yards on 9 carries. Brandon Goodson capped off the drive with a clutch 4 yard run on third and goal, putting the Terriers up 28-21 with 7:30 remaining in regulation.
But 7:30 was plenty of time for the Western Carolina offense to work with, tying the game at 28 on a 1-yard Donnavan Spencer run. On that drive, the Catamounts drove 75 yards in 11 plays and converted three third downs, two of which were longer than 11 yards to gain. With three minutes left to play, the Terriers assumed possession of the football at their own 20 and drove all the way to the Western Carolina 35, before poor clock management had the Terriers heave a Hail Mary to end regulation.
Western Carolina won the toss in overtime and chose play defense first. Wofford scored quickly, going the 25 yard distance on two plays, booming in on a Stoddard run, putting the Terriers ahead 35-28. On the first down of overtime, Tyrie Adams was tackled for a loss of 9, pinning the Catamounts back to a second and 19 from the 34. On second down he made up for the lost yards, rushing for 11, but on third down he threw an interception in the endzone, putting an end to the best game of the week in the Socon.
Defensively, this was one of the best possible outcomes for the Terriers. Though they surrendered 28 points and over 350 yards of offense, that was well below the Catamounts average of over 500 yards per game. The Terriers contained the tremendously talented Detrez Newsome, holding him to 69 yards rushing on 13 carriers. Overall, the Terriers held the Catamounts (relatively) in check, forced turnovers and limited their points per play to similar numbers as FBS Hawaii. Against a high octane offense such as Western Carolina, you can’t ask for much more than to contain it.
The defensive effort would not have been nearly as successful had the offense not executed at a high level. Having a formidable offensive attack allowed Wofford to limit the amount of possessions Western can have, and thus limited their scoring ability. Going into this game, Western possessed the ball about 66 times and scored on roughly half of those possessions. If you possess the ball 13 times a game and average a score on half of your possessions, you’ll score 7 times for a range of 21-49 points. Wofford’s defense did a phenomenal job of limiting the Catamounts’ scoring to 4 of 11 possessions. Wofford played a strong offensive game, scoring on 6 of their 12 possessions and grinding clock. Without the success of Wofford’s offense to limit possessions, the defense would not have been able to keep the game in reach.
On special teams, Wofford won the field position battle as well, pinning Western Carolina deep inside their 20 all day, while Wofford regularly started possessions between the 35s. Both teams have a lot to work on in the coming weeks, as the teams combined for 20 penalties and over 200 yards and multiple dropped passes.
Western Carolina may have some problems on defense, as Wofford hadn’t gained over 400 yards against a Socon opponent since 2015. Luckily, their next draw is conference relative-newcomer ETSU. ETSU has the passing ability to stay competitive in every game, but their run game is sub-par (averaging well under-100 yards per game) and the only time they saw an offense comparable to Western Carolina’s was defending national champion James Madison (a 52-10 route by the Dukes). Western Carolina should be favored, but if they catch themselves snoozing, they could be another victim to the most-quietly-dangerous team in the SoCon.
Things don’t get much easier for Wofford. Though the Terriers head to Charleston for a night game against a Citadel team that looks ailing, the Bulldogs will be a team most opportune to shut down Mike Ayers’s option attack. The teams played twice last year and split each outing, with both meetings going down to the wire. If Wofford continues its solid defensive play and limits mistakes, the Terriers could be 6-0 for the first time since going division one 20 years ago. If the Terriers get overconfident reading their own press, however, they could lose their lead in the Socon in the blink of an eye
Furman 41 Chattanooga 17 (box score)
The Furman Paladins came into Finley Stadium looking to break the .500 mark for the first time this season, while the reeling Chattanooga Mocs were looking to get back on course after an abysmal 1-4 start. After the injury of veteran Quarterback Alejandro Bennifield and the 1-4 performance of Mississippi State transfer Nick Tiano, first year head coach burned the redshirt of Freshmen Cole Copeland. Combined with the Furman defense being relatively young and injured and Furman themselves having a high-scoring offense led by PJ Blazejowski,, this game had the ingredients to be an offensive thriller.
Unfortunately for the Mocs, it did not live up to expectations.
Furman received the ball first in the second half, driving 75 yards in 14 plays and 6:07, capped off with an 11 yard Touchdown pass to Logan McCarter from Blazejowski. Chattanooga answered strong, with Copeland’s inaugural drive as a college QB seeing him go 4-4 and 60 yards before the Chattanooga offense was stuffed for no gain on 3rd and 1 inside the 15. The Mocs had to settle for a field goal. Momentum shortly swung in the direction of the Mocs as the Grayson Atkins missed a 46 yard field goal for the Paladins on their next drive.
From there, Chattanooga took the lead with Copeland again going 4-4 and 60 yards but this time he capped the drive off with a 40 yard touchdown pass to Alphonso Stewart. For those of you at home, you read that correctly: Copeland completed his first 8 passes as a college QB for 120 yards and a touchdown. Not bad for a freshman.
Down 3 early in the second quarter, Furman didn’t panic and went back to their power run game, going 78 yards for an Antonio Wilcox score, taking the lead 14-10. On the next drive the young Chattanooga QB learned that you can’t win in the Socon without a semblance of a run game, going 0-2 and throwing an interception. From there Furman smelled blood and didn’t look back, going 4 plays and 32 yards for another Blazejowski touchdown pass, this time to Andy Schumpert, and a 10 point lead (the extra point failed). The next 3 drives saw both teams exchanging three and outs. Darius Moorehead then capped a 54 yard drive for the Paladins on a 12 yard touchdown run, for a 27 to 10 halftime lead.
After the half, Chattanooga once again had to punt after five plays. Starting from their own 15 yard-line, Blazejowski threw another touchdown, this time a bomb from 57 yards out to Logan McCarter for a 34-10 lead. Feeling the pressure of being down multiple scores in the third quarter, Chattanooga called 6 straight pass plays with mixed-to-negative results, including a sack and another interception.
Tragedy then struck the Paladins as they missed a field goal on the following drive. The tragedy wasn’t with the points left on the field, but with Blazejowski going down with a knee injury. At the time of writing the exact severity of the injury is unknown, but hearsay suggests it’s relatively minor and we may see Blazejowski back soon.
Following the missed field goal, the Mocs were able to capitalize and scoring a touchdown to bring the score to a respectable 34-17. Backup QB Harris Roberts and the Furman offense were then able to grind the clock with a 7 minute drive that turned over on downs inside the Chattanooga 30. On the first play of the Moc’s next possession, Copeland threw another interception, this time a pick 6 to Dillion Vann, bringing the score to 41-17. Chattanooga was able to drive inside the Furman 30 yard-line, but threw another interception inside the endzone as time expired.
This game marked another win for the Paladins, bringing them to a respectable 3-3. Right now Furman has the second best scoring offense and the third best total defense, a point that’s probably undersold considering they’ve already played 2 ranked teams (Wofford, Elon) and an FBS team (NC State). Losing Blazejowski could be huge for the Paladins going forward, but they were already a young team with lots of injuries. Next week, they play a down VMI team, a team they should probably beat, Blazejowki or not.
The prognosis for the Chattanooga Mocs is not as positive. The Mocs had a total of 7 yards rushing. Though their QB threw for over 300 yards, many of those yards were under duress, and the consequences were four interceptions and three sacks. Though Copeland may be a rising star for the Mocs, if Chattanooga can’t run the ball and protect the QB it’s to no avail. If you’re looking to see why the Mocs are struggling this year, look no farther than their rush offense (less than 60 yards a game) and sacks allowed (a league low of 21) It looks to be a down year for the Mocs this year, but if they can make some adjustments on the offensive line and defense, the future will brighten up fast with young talent. Next week, the Mocs play Mercer a team with a strong rush defense, holding both Wofford and Citadel’s potent option attacks to below their season averages. The Bears have been known to let winnable games slip, so if Chattanooga can adjust their offensive line issues, they’ll be competitive.
Mercer 24 #21The Citadel 14 (box score)
The Citadel won most of the stat lines in the game Saturday, except three very important ones. Obviously the score, but two other stats which doomed the Dogs to go down to the Mercer Bears for the first time since Herbert Hoover was president. The first was turnovers. The Dogs fumbled it 6 times and lost 3. They also tossed an interception. Mercer lost the two fumbles they committed. Having lost the turnover battle, the Dogs also lost their usually envious time of possession margin. Mercer had the ball over 7 more minutes. You can’t win, especially if you run long grinding drives, if you don’t have the ball.
Mercer did a good job of taking away anything up the middle. They must have watched a lot the film from the Samford game. But I guess it sounds silly to say film in this digital age. Unless something changes for the Dogs, The Citadel’s future opponents are going to exploit their youthful offensive line and inexperienced B-Backs. They will settle for the pitch outside and the desperate passes that the Dogs were forced to execute as a result. It wasn’t that the Dogs were not successful. Sometimes they were. But they were not nearly successful enough to pose a continuous threat. And with Mercer’s ball swatting ways, they were bound to make something happen.
Mercer received the opening kickoff and after a first down the Dogs forced a punt. The Dogs looked good initially gaining a first down in two plays, But on their third play the problems started for The Citadel as Dom Allen completed a pass to Raleigh Webb who fumbled near midfield. That sparked Mercer and they went on a 5 play, 48 yard drive for the first score of the game.
Both defenses settled in and the teams traded two punts each before The Citadel got the upper hand in field position and drove 52 yards in 9 plays to the Mercer 3 early in the second. Then disaster struck again as Mercer forced a fumble on a 1st and goal. After a short drive by the Bears and another punt, The Citadel again drove into Mercer territory and decided on a field goal attempt from 47 yards. It missed wide right.
Again, Mercer got sparked form this and made a good drive of 11 plays for 70 yards and a score. With under 5 minutes to go in the half and down 14-0, The Citadel needed some momentum. After a first down run, the Dogs again went to the air for three incomplete passes. After punting it away, The Dogs Defense held the Bears to a three and out. The Citadel then looked as if they had it going again and drove into Mercer territory sparked by a 41 yard pass. After making one 4th down conversion, the Dogs found themselves soon facing another one after being sacked and punted it back to Mercer who ran out the clock to go into the break up 14-0.
After The Citadel offense opened the second half with a three and out, the Dogs finally got a break after Mercer fumbled near midfield. That turnover could have very well sparked a comeback by the Dogs. That is unless they didn’t fumble it yet again after driving down to the Mercer 20. After each team punted Mercer put together another long drive for a score to make it 21-0 with 3 minutes to go in the third quarter. After trading two more punts, The Citadel finally put together a drive, which they didn’t fumble, and scored to make it 21-7 with just over 13 minutes to go in the game. It was a quick drive of 1:43 and only 5 plays for 67 yards. That was fast by Bulldogs standards. But they needed fast scores.
After two more punts, The Citadel caught another break with Mercer fumbling it on their own 21. But the Mercer defense stood up and four plays later, the Dogs turned it over on downs. A 72 yard drive by the Bears ended with a field goal to make it 24-7 with just under 4 minutes to play. But the Dogs would not roll over yet. An 8 play 75 yard drive which took only 1:22 made it 24-14. What is interesting is that of those 8 plays, 7 were passing, and one rushing. Yes, Mercer was a bit stingy on defense against the rush. And the Dogs made it even more interesting with an on-side kick, which they recovered with 2:33 to go. After nearly losing a forced fumble on the first play, Mercer effectively finished it off with an interception the next play. After holding Mercer to a three and out, the Bulldogs made an effort to drive but ran out of time at the Mercer 35. Now at 1-2 in the conference, the Bulldogs probably wish they had one or two of those fumbles back. Overall the Dogs gained 381 yards to Mercers 311.
But Mercer did exactly what they needed to in order to win. They held the Bulldogs rushing game in check for most of the game and forced the Dogs to go to the air. They also won the turnover battle. The Dogs had only 201 rushing yards. They also had a season high 180 yards through the air. Bulldog QB Dom Allen went 14/31 with one interception. It is probably time to talk about the QB situation for the Bulldogs. For the first time this year Jordan Black did not play. The two QBs had been tag teaming it for most games. But the problem with that is neither one could get into a good game rhythm. This may very well have been an attempt to get that rhythm going. It obviously didn’t work. It will be interesting to see who gets the nod next week.
While Mercers defense can take the credit for the win via holding the Dogs running game in check and forcing a bunch of turnovers, their offense wasn’t too shabby either. The Bears QB Kaelan Riley went 12/23 for 111 yards. Not bad, but the Mercer running game kept them moving and chewing up clock. They totaled 200 yards on 50 attempts. Tee Mitchell had 88 and two TDs and Alex Lakes totaled 79. They were both elusive on many runs.
Penalties were not too much of a factor as Mercer had four for 41 yards and The Citadel only two for 19 yards. Both specials teams played fairly well.
For the Dogs, it does not get any easier with Wofford coming to Charleston next week. That will probably be the Dogs last gasp. A loss next week would not only doom any faint hope of repeating as SOCON Champs, but any hope at a playoff spot as well. The Dogs are pretty much in a win out situation, sans Clemson. Mercer, with two previous conference losses, is pretty much already in a win out scenario, sans Alabama. They face Chattanooga in Macon next week.
#22Samford 26 VMI 7 (box score)
ETSU 16 Robert Morris 3 (box score)
Power Rankings
Today’s version is going up a bit late due to other events but this is the information provided on AGS by superman7515.
On to Week 6…wait…seriously?!?…Week 6 already? I thought we just started this thing. Like it or not, the football season goes by pretty fast for us hard-core fans. Up this week we have a couple of likely close games including one that looks like it could have a big impact on who the eventual conference champion is. We also have the final non-conference matchup for a MVFC team, against a Big Sky team that’s already played another MVFC team this season.
Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.
For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings.
So, here are the games this week
12:00 PM – #2 North Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) at Indiana State (0-4, 0-1)
2:00 PM – #3 Youngstown State (3-1, 1-0) at #5 South Dakota (4-0, 1-0)
4:00 PM – #12 Western Illinois (3-1, 0-1) at Northern Iowa (2-2, 1-0)
6:00 PM – Southern Illinois (2-2, 0-1) at #9 South Dakota State (3-1, 0-1)
6:00 PM – #8 Illinois State (4-0, 2-0) at Northern Arizona (2-2), PlutoTV
Missouri State is on bye this weekend.
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3 except ILSU at NAU.
MVFC weekly notes are available — great info on the @NCAA_FCS best league! https://t.co/ney95FB95J pic.twitter.com/9vNRyafaWG
— Valley Football (@ValleyFootball) October 3, 2017
Last Week:
History: The Bison and Sycamores have played each other 9 times going back to 2008. NDSU has the series lead with a 8-1 record.
North Dakota State is pretty much at the top of the “charts” stats-wise (to be fair, they haven’t played any really great teams so far this season), allowing the fewest passing yards, rushing yards, total yards (duh), and points of anyone in the FCS. They just got likely future-NFL LB Nick DeLuca after an early season knee injury, and in the meantime, LBs Levi Jordheim and Jabril Cox have been stepping up to fill the gap. In addition, SS’s James Hendricks and Robbie Grimsley each have 3 INTs, making it very difficult for any QB who isn’t “dead-on” with their throws. They also have one of the best running attacks in the FCS, with RB Lance Dunn averaging 123 ypg (10 TDs) and players like RB Bruce Anderson and RB Ty Brooks contributing greatly as well…all adding up to 336.8 ypg on the ground. QB Easton Stick hasn’t put up stellar numbers (84th in the FCS in yardage), but he has been efficient (2nd in the FCS in passing efficiency). With a run game like the Bison have, they don’t often need to pass, but when Stick does, it’s usually a completion and usually effective.
Indiana State is having a rough go of things so far this season, sitting at 0-4 despite strong performances against Liberty and Eastern Illinois. Their biggest weakness is defending the pass…they’re allowing just over 290 passing ypg so far this season, but only slightly over 100 ypg on the ground. LB Jonas Griffith leads the team in tackles, averaging 9.3 per game, and 0.63 sacks per game. On offense, QB Cade Sparks averages 169.5 ypg and 4 TDs passing w/ 1 INT. WR Bob Pugh hauls in 92.75 ypg and has 2 receiving TDs and RB LeMonte Booker does his part in the ground game, with 95.5 ypg and 2 TDs. The INSU O-Line has been having problems though, allowing 8.25 tackles for loss and 2 sacks per game.
The Bison have a pretty easy first half to their season and they’ve been demonstrating that in dominating fashion. After this next weekend, it gets significantly tougher for them, but until that point, I doubt they’ll have much trouble with the Sycamores. I think NDSU takes this one by ~30 points.
Last Week:
History: The Penguins have played the Coyotes 5 times so far going back to 2012. Youngstown has won all 5 meetings in the past.
Last year, Youngstown State had one of the best defenses in the country, with two senior D-Linemen that were both drafted in this last spring’s NFL draft. You would think that losing a couple of NFL-level players would cause a drop in the quality of their defense, but that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. The Penguins are only allowing 11 ppg and 245 ypg so far this season and last weekend, nearly completely shut down the vaunted SDSU Jackrabbit Offense. S Kyle Hegedus and FS Jalyn Powell each have 27 tackles this season and DE Justus Reed is currently leading the conference, averaging 1 sack per game. Offensively, nobody is putting up huge numbers, but as a whole, they are very good at putting together a slow, gradual march across the field, giving their defense time to rest, and denying their opponent the opportunity to score. This was particularly effective in their game last week, where they held the ball for over 3/4 of the game and all but 3 1/2 minutes in the second half, using three drives of 8 1/2 minutes or longer. When you look at the play-by-play for that game, you see that they mostly get it done with short runs by RB Tevin McCaster who is averaging 111.5 ypg and over 21 attempts per game. The primary QB is Nathan Mays, who’s throwing at a nearly 73% completion rate.
South Dakota is now 4-0 for the first time since 2006 (when they were a good DII team). They’ve gotten to this point in no small part due to the play of their dual-threat QB Chris Streveler. Streveler has been passing an average of 292 ypg and has 10 passing TDs. He also is the Coyote’s leading rusher, with just under 80 ypg and 7 TDs on the ground. Add in a number of relatively effective receivers and you end up with one of the better offenses in the FCS (currently #2 stats-wise). Their defense is solid enough to be holding opposing teams to 18.5 ppg, although they did seem to let up in the second half of last week’s game against Western Illinois, when they gave up 27 points to let the Leathernecks back into a game who’s outcome seemed to be difinitive by halfway through the 3rd quarter. In general, the front lines are strong, allowing only 72.2 ypg on the ground, but have been vulnerable to strong passing attacks, where they give up 264.2 ypg. DB Danny Rambo leads the team in tackles with 25 including 2 for loss and 1 interception.
As shown by it’s AGS Game of the Week status, all indications are a close and exciting battle. I think YSU will keep USD to a lower score than they’ve had in most of their games so far this season, but I also think that USD will be able to shut down YSU’s run game more effectively than most other teams have been able to. I think that this is a really tight matchup, with the win going to whomever can put together one or two big plays. It could easily go eather way, but I think I have to lean towards USD due to them being the home team and it’s their homecoming, so the dome should be lound and excited and should give them just enough of a boost to come away with a win. I think Coyotes by 3.
Last Week:
History: The Leathernecks and Panthers have met up 45 times starting back in 1967 (and every year for the past 39 years). UNI has the 31-14 series lead overall and are 15-6 at home against the Leathernecks. Last year’s meeting was a 30-23 win in Macomb for the Panthers, and the last win for Western was a 24-19 victory in 2015 in Cedar Falls.
Western Illinois is 3-1 coming off their first loss of the season at home against South Dakota. WIU is very much a second-half team, putting up 23% of their points in the first half of games, but 45% of their points in the third quarters alone. The offense is putting up 41 ppg, in no small part due to WR Jaelon Acklin, who’s averaging an FCS-leading 146 receiving ypg w/ 5 TDs plus an additional 26 ypg and 2 TDs on the ground, and had a conference record-breaking performance last week against USD with 343 yards and 3 TDs on 19 catches. On the other side of things, the switch to the 3-4 has seemed to improve things somewhat over last year’s horrible pass defense situation, as the Leathernecks are only giving up just over 20 ppg so far. They’re led by LB Brett Taylor, who tied a school record last weekend with 28 tackles and currently leads the FCS with 14.5 tackles per game. DB Xavier Rowe is doing better this season with more experience, currently leading the conference in passes defended with 1.5 per game.
Northern Iowa is at 2-2 and spent last weekend in a game with SIU where…if you’re looking at the drive chart…it appears nobody wanted the football in the 4th quarter. The Panther defense appears to be coming together, allowing only 17 points when they’d been averaging over 34 ppg allowed before that game however they are giving up an uncharacteristically high 445 ypg. LB Jared Farley is averaging 11.5 tackles per game and is 4th in the FCS in solo tackles per game (7), and DB Malcolm Washington has picked up 2 INTs in their 4 games. On offense, the Panthers are a much more pass-oriented team, with QB Eli Dunne throwing for 284 ypg and about 1/3 of that going to WR Daurice Fountain. The ground game is not really UNI’s forte, however, with them only averaging 82 ypg and RB Trevor Allen picking up over 70% of those yards.
This is something of a down year for UNI, and WIU has played really well at times, but also struggled in certain early-game situations. I know it’s UNI’s Homecoming game, but if I’ve seen one thing so far about the Leathernecks…playing on the road doesn’t hinder them much. I think we’ll see something a bit more “offense-oriented” than UNI’s game last week, with heavy emphasis on the passing game. Seems like a pretty close game is fairly likely, but I think my Leathernecks will be down at halftime and pull ahead in the 4th quarter for a 6-point win.
Last Week:
History: The Salukis and Jackrabbits have played 7 times, with SDSU holding a 4-3 series lead. Last year’s matchup was a 45-39 SDSU win at Carbondale.
Southern Illinois has played well at times; last weekend was not one of those times, however, as they had 3 turnovers in the loss. QB Sam Straub is completing slightly over 50% of his passes this season, with 12 TDs, 4 INTs, and 240 ypg. Quickly scanning through their offensive stats as compared with the rest of the FCS, I would say that for the most part, they are solidly mediocre. They have had a few bright spots though, like RB Daquan Isom running for 126 yards and LB Kyron Watson having 15 tackles, 2.5 for loss, and a forced fumble & recovery last week. But, for the most part, they are giving up just about as many yards and points as they’re putting on the board themselves.
It’s kinda hard to tell if South Dakota State is down a bit from last year’s lofty standard, or if they’ve just played some tougher opponents to start the season. They’re 3-1, but played a close game with Montana State earlier and last week were only able to manage a TD in the loss to Youngstown State. Their offensive line has been solid so far, giving up an FCS-best 3 tackles for loss per game and 3 sacks total in 4 games but they don’t have a player averaging over 50 ypg rushing and both WR Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Goedert are averaging fewer than 70 ypg (their averages were 101.2 and 99.5 respectively at the end of last season) so far. On defense, they’re holding teams to just over 17 ppg, but when you only put up 7 like last weekend, 17 (or in that specific case, 19) doesn’t really help. One of last year’s best freshman at any position in the FCS, LB Christian Rozeboom, is leading the team at 31 tackles and LB Logan Backhaus has 2 INTs and 2 passes defended so far this year.
SDSU is down a bit from where I (and I think many people) had thought they would be this season, but they’re still a very good team, they just ran into a defensive juggernaut last weekend. I think they’ll make up for it with a strong game against a struggling Saluki team. Jackrabbits by 14.
Last Week:
History: This is the first meeting between the Lumberjacks and Redbirds.
Illinois State is off to a hot start a 4-0 and is the only team with 2 MVFC wins so far, having beaten Missouri State solidly and then defeating Indiana State last weekend. QB Jake Kolbe leads an offense that’s putting up 458 ypg and 36.8 ppg so far, with WR Christian Gibbs snagging 86 ypg and 4 TDs and RBs James Robinson and Markel Smith running in the 60-70 ypg range and 4 and 3 TDs respectively. The Redbirds have one of the top performing defenses in the FCS, allowing only 166.5 ypg and 8.8 ppg so far, and equally good in both run and pass defense. In nearly all those categories, they are second only to fellow MVFC member NDSU. They’re also currently leading the FCS in tackles for loss, averaging 9.5 per game.
Northern Arizona started off the season with a couple of losses before rebounding with two conference wins. Their offense seems to be starting to find it’s rhythm, having averaged only 24 ppg in the first three games, but putting up 48 against Northern Colorado last weekend. QB Case Cookus is averaging 301 ypg and has 9 TDs w/ 3 INTs with his primary target being WR Elijah Marks, who’s snagging 117 ypg and has 3 TDs. On the defensive side, the Lumberjacks are struggling at stopping the run, giving up 240 ypg on the turf. Their defensive tackle leader is LB Byron Evans who has 32 tackles so far and S Kam’ron Johnson has had an interception in each of the last three games.
For the second time this season, NAU is inviting a MVFC member from Illinois to their place. NAU seems to be doing better offensively than when Western Illinois played there back in week 2, but Illinois State has a better defense than Western Illinois at this point. I think that ISU will spend much of the game running the ball against the NAU defense, letting the Redbird defense rest (which they’ll likely need a little more of playing at 7,000 ft above sea level). I don’t see this game going too much differently than it did when NAU played WIU. That game was an 18 pt WIU win and I think this game will be an 18 pt ISU win.
Week 6 is highlighted by two key league games. Lehigh heads to Hamilton, NY to take on Colgate in their annual grudge match. The Mountain Hawks have not lost a conference game since the Raiders defeated them at the end of the 2015 season. The other Patriot League game to keep an eye on is Lafayette hosting struggling Fordham. The Leopards are fresh off a huge win over of Holy Cross and can move to 2-0 in Patriot League play with a win over the Rams. In other action this week, Holy Cross welcomes a surging Monmouth team to Worcester while Georgetown hits the road to tangle with Princeton.
Lehigh (0-5, 0-0) at Colgate (2-3, 0-0) – Oct. 7th 1 PM Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY
Live Streaming – Patriot League Network
When the schedule was released months ago no one could have imagined that Lehigh and Colgate would enter their annual showdown a combined 2-8. But with Lehigh’s historically bad defense and Colgate’s struggling offense that’s where these teams are as the calendar turns to October. The vast majority of pundits had Lehigh as the prohibitive league favorite with Colgate lying in weeds behind the Mountain Hawks and Fordham. It’s still possible, perhaps even probable, that Lehigh and or Colgate end up with a piece of the Patriot League title but the road has become a lot bumpier than expected.
If Lehigh wants to turn their season around the defense must become at least competent. To this point in the year the Mountain Hawk’s defensive statistics are beyond horrific; 48 ppg (121st in FCS), 287 rushing ypg (120th in FCS), 533 total ypg (123rd in FCS, dead last). Colgate figures to be a reasonable matchup for the hapless group but so did Wagner. The Raiders are averaging a paltry 16.2 ppg (102nd in FCS). The main reason for the lack of point production is a passing game that has yet to get going with freshman quarterback Grant Brenerman getting comfortable as the starter. As luck would have it for the Lehigh defense, Brenerman is coming off his best game of the year against Cornell. For his 2 passing TD and 1 Rushing TD performance this freshman QB was named the Patriot League’s Offensive Player of the Week. Given Lehigh’s failure to stop the run all season, the elusive Brenerman along with RB Alex Mathews have to be licking their chops. The Mountain Hawks must force Colgate to throw the ball. Otherwise the Raiders are going to control the ball, the clock and the game.
Colgate’s defense is coming off their best performance of the year against the Big Red. With All-American rush end Pat Afriyie back in the fold the Raiders “D” is arguably the stingiest unit in the league. While Lehigh’s offense is littered with household names it hasn’t completely clicked like it did last week. The main reason for the so-so production is an offensive line that simply hasn’t lived up to its potential to this point in the year. If it doesn’t bring its “A” game on Saturday it will be another long day for the Brown and White.
Prediction: Colgate 37 Lehigh 24
Georgetown (1-3, 0-0) at Princeton (2-1) – Oct 7th 1 PM Princeton Stadium Princeton, NJ
Live Streaming – Ivy League Digital Network
The Hoyas will look to end their 3 game losing streaking as they head to New Jersey to square off against Princeton. After opening the season with a hard fought 16-10 win over Campbell Georgetown’s defense has not been able to slow teams down enough to overcome one of the worst offenses in FCS (253 Total ypg 108th in FCS). Not helping matters is the loss of the 5th year QB Tim Benson and a rushing attack that has done next to nothing so far this year despite having two experienced running backs (Alex Valles and Isaac Ellsworth). Princeton is coming off a surprising 28-24 loss to Columbia. The Lions beat Georgetown 35-14 two weeks ago.
The Tiger offense is loaded with skilled playmakers but have yet to find a way to light up the scoreboard. If the Hoyas want to keep Princeton from breaking out they’ll first have to account for veteran QB Chad Kanoff (306 ypg 9 TD 5 INT) and his two very dangerous wide receivers, Stephen Carlson and Jesper Horsted. Then there’s the Princeton rushing attack which is led by Charlie Volker (91 ypg). Georgetown’s defense will need to get pressure on Kanoff and force him into mistakes. Despite being one of the most experienced quarterbacks in FCS, Kanoff has a history of questionable decision making. That has continued this year with 5 interceptions. If Georgetown’s defense can win the turnover battle it’ll go a long way towards pulling the upset.
Additional possessions would at least increase Georgetown’s chances to improve upon their 11 ppg average. To call the Hoya’s offense anemic to this point would be generous. They’ve struggled mightily to start the year before finally bottoming out last week with a 0 point performance against Harvard. The Tigers are going to enter this game mighty angry after their loss to Columbia. With that in mind, odds say Princeton takes out a decent amount of frustration on a bruised and battered Georgetown team.
Prediction: Princeton 47 Georgetown 17
Monmouth (4-1) at Holy Cross (2-3, 1-1) – Oct 7th 1 PM Fitton Field Worcester, MA
Live Streaming – Patriot League Network
Holy Cross welcomes the Monmouth Hawks to New England as the Crusaders will look to halt their two game losing skid. The Crusaders enter the game attempting to right the ship after an embarrassing 10-7 loss to previously winless Lafayette. With the loss, Holy Cross no longer controls their destiny in the league race. Getting the positive mojo going again won’t be easy against a Monmouth team that has already notched 3 convincing wins over Patriot League teams (Lafayette, Lehigh and Bucknell) this season. I’ll be interesting to see how Holy Cross responds to being the underdog once again. They certainly failed miserably the last two weeks as the favorite.
It’s no secret that Peter Pujals (263 ypg 8 TD 3 INT) will need to lead the way if Holy Cross wants to take down Monmouth and get their record back to .500. The 5th year senior is coming off one of his worst performances as quarterback for the Crusaders so motivation shouldn’t be an issue. If the Monmouth defense has a weakness it’s against the pass (244 ypg allowed) so Pujals and company should have some opportunities to make plays. They’ll need to because the Hawks have the 11th ranked rush defense in FCS (75.2 ypg allowed). Leading the Hawk defense is Mike Basile. The senior safety is one of the top defensive players in all of FCS so he must be accounted for at all times. His ability to make plays can at every level is what makes him so dangerous. Pujals needs to be aware of where he lines up on each play.
Monmouth isn’t flashy on offense but they are well balanced. Leading the way for the Hawks is Freshman RB Peter Guerriero (84 ypg 5 TD). The former New Jersey high school star has busted onto the scene with an excellent start to the season. If he continues his current pace he’ll be a candidate for the Jerry Rice Award (best freshman in FCS). The Holy Cross defense must limit his damage and hope Monmouth QB Kenji Bahar is forced to throw the ball more than 30 times in the game. The Hawks want the running game to set up opportunities down the field for Bahar.
Prediction: Monmouth 33 Holy Cross 27
Fordham (1-4, 0-0) at Lafayette (1-4, 1-0) – Oct 7th 3:30 PM Fisher Stadium Easton, PA
Live Streaming: Patriot League Network
Lafayette and Fordham tangle on College Hill in Easton in a key early season league game. The Leopards enters the game fresh off a shocking 10-7 win over once ranked Holy Cross. The Leopards used a stifling defense and buzzer beating field goal to knock off the Crusaders. Lafayette was able to pull off the upset despite another lackluster performance from the offense. The ground game managed an abysmal -6 yards in the win and now ranks 122nd in FCS with an 11 ypg average. The Rams on the other hand are limping into their league opener. Fordham got run off the field in the first half quarter last week against Yale and never recovered. It’s been a hugely disappointing season so far for the Rams but they can still win the league and return to the playoffs in Chase Edmonds’ senior season.
If there was a silver lining in the 31 point loss to Yale it was the return of Edmonds. The all world RB missed the previous 2 games with an ankle injury. Edmonds showed some flashes in his return before finishing with 83 yards on 16 carries. Unfortunately for the Rams, he wasn’t able to do enough to overcome another poor performance by the Ram offensive line. Kevin Anderson has been under constant pressure all season (sacked 19 times) and as a result his stats have fallen off significantly from the last two years. Lafayette has a very capable front 7 so unless Fordham was able to fix some of their protection issues this week it could be another long game for Anderson.
If the Lafayette defense plays like it did last week they’ll have a chance to go 2-0 in the league. Their ultimate fate will be determined by the offense. Fordham’s defense ranks near the bottom in nearly every major statistical category on defense (120th ppg allowed 47.4, 121st total ypg 496, 115th rushing defense 255.2 ypg) while the Leopard offense in or near the basement in most offensive categories so something has to give. Assuming Edmonds is back up to game speed it’s hard to see Lafayette being able to outscore the Rams even if the Leopard defense plays well again.
Prediction: Fordham 38 Lafayette 23
