SOCON Week 9 Review

Citadel 21 VMI 3

The Citadel Bulldogs kept the Silver Shako for another year after a strong win against a still-winless VMI team.  The Bulldogs won their second straight game of the season to improve their record to 5-3.  The Citadel ran for over 400 yards against the Keydets and out-gained them 421 to 219.  The Citadel run defense remained one of the strongest in the conference, holding VMI to 72 yards on 32 carries.  The one blemish for the Bulldogs was that they missed 4 field goals inside 40 yards. The Citadel offense, which has been stung by three and outs all season only had two on the day. Meanwhile, VMI was only able to get into the redzone once on their opening drive, being held to less than 3.5 yards a play.

The Bulldogs may not make the playoffs this year, but now they are playing for pride.  The difference between this year’s Citadel team and last year’s team is matter of efficiency on offense.  Ill-timed fumbles, missed field goals and a bad first quarter against Samford appear to be the difference between this team being competitive for a playoff spot and competing for a respectable 7-4 rating.  The Bulldog defense is still one of the best in the conference, still leading in rush defense.  The offense has proven it can grind the clock and slow the pace of play at times, which is an equalizer against any opponent. Still, the option attack for the Citadel hasn’t proven its ability to score more than 20 or so points a game and has only scored 30 once against Socon competition.  The Bulldogs are young on offense, replacing a lot of talent on a team that went undefeated in conference play last year, so some drop off is expected. Having said that, it’s unwise to underestimate the potential of a young and talented team coached by a man who didn’t lose a conference game until his second year. The next two games against Western Carolina and Furman will be difficult for the Bulldogs, but not impossible to win. 

Meanwhile, VMI may not win a game this year, having not scored 20 points against any division one opponent. There’s not much nuance to it: they just can’t score points reliably. Their defense is probably better than the statistics show, but you can’t expect a defense on any team to carry it if the offense can’t reliable score 20 points a game. The Keydets go to Johnson City, Tennessee next week to play ETSU, a squad they walloped last year, but the two programs seem to be heading in opposite directions.  ETSU is clearly better this year than last year, by virtue of their offensive output, while VMI is clearly worse by the same measure.

Furman 28 Western Carolina 6

A torrential downpour welcomed Furman to Cullowhee, North Carolina for Western Carolina’s homecoming.  An early injury to Western Carolina’s star Quarterback Tyrie Adams set back the Catamount offense in a way they couldn’t overcome.  In an old-fashioned slobberknocker of a football game, Furman ran the ball 55 times for 363 yards and only completed two passes for 60 yards (they threw only five times) and a touchdown in route to a 28-6 victory.  Western Carolina was still able to run the ball for 241 yards on 53 carries and 107 yards passing on 14 completions.  

It’s unclear how this game would have turned out had the weather been better or had Adams played the whole game, but Adams doesn’t play defense.  Going into the game, Western Carolina had given up 4.2 yards per carry on defense, which is a bad sign considering the only quality running team they had played was Wofford (Davidson, ETSU, Chattanooga, VMI and Samford are not known for their run game).  The strength of Western’s defense has been pass defense, being the only team in the conference to hold opposing QBs to below 50% completions (a phenomenal number when you consider they’ve played the best passing teams in the conference).  Furman just didn’t need to throw the ball. Though Catamount fans may always question what could have been and their defense has certainly improved this year, run defense is what’s preventing them from taking the next step into being a title contender.  Going forward, the Catamounts risk not making the playoffs without Adams.  They need to find an offense without him next week against the Citadel to hope to make the playoffs.

This game reiterated that Furman’s offense is one of the best in the country due to their ability to run the ball and the arm strength of QB P.J. Blazejowski.   Furman controls their own destiny when it comes to winning a share of the Socon. What sets Furman apart from other teams in the conference is their balance and consistency on offense. No matter the opponent, Furman’s offense will score about 50% of the possessions they have. So long as their offense scores at that rate, it’s unlikely that any team will beat them in conference play. They still have to play two formidable defenses in Samford and the Citadel, but they should be favored in those games given their performance thus far. It’s hard to gauge their defense because they get the job done, but in different and inconsistent ways (even without Adams, shutting down Western’s offense is impressive, yet at the same time they let ETSU pass for 400 yards against them). Though they should be favored in their next two games, it will be interesting to see how Furman plays both.  Wofford was able to wear down the young and injured Furman defense in the fourth quarter, and the Citadel is the most comparable team to Wofford in the conference.  Yet still, the Paladins will have a week to prepare. With Samford, Furman will probably enter the game with a pass defense near the bottom of the conference, while Samford has a somewhat vulnerable run defense.  It’s hard to gauge how either game will go, but it’s certain that Furman will have earned equal share of the conference title if they win both.

Chattanooga 23 Samford 21

In perhaps the biggest upset of the season, Chattanooga got their first win against a ranked opponent on the road in over 30 years.  The Samford Bulldogs, hot after a 24-21 win on the road at Wofford last week, turned the ball over 7 times including a key fumble inside Chattanooga territory, up 1, with about 2:20 seconds left in the game. Chattanooga had its fair share of turnovers as well, with four, but the Mocs ultimately prevailed on a 39-yard field goal with less than 20 seconds left to take the lead 23-21. For the second straight week, Samford failed to establish any semblance of a run game, rushing for 34 yards on 27 attempts, with the most of those yards coming from a 16 yard scramble by Devlin Hodges in the fourth quarter. Hodges managed to complete 60% of his passes for 333 yards, but could not overcome 3 interceptions.

The Chattanooga offense has struggled all season but has improved steadily under freshman QB Cole Copeland. The Mocs offense has failed to score 20 points on anyone but winless VMI, but in the past few weeks has improved to where they are in a position to win games in the fourth quarter.  Though the defense isn’t as statistically impressive as it was last year, it’s still a solid group with a strong pass defense and the ability to force turnovers and score on their own.  No doubt, the Mocs have found their rhythm and have the capability to win against Wofford and ETSU to close out the season.  If they can protect Copeland against a Wofford pass rush that’s been kind of quiet this year and avoid turnovers, it’s possible they’ll get their second straight road win against a top 10 team. 

For Samford, this marks the third straight year they’ve lost to a team with a losing record.  When the Bulldogs were playing at their best, they weren’t playing cute, throwing offensive lineman screens and double reverses on third and one, they were passing the ball effectively and running the ball well enough when they needed to. Devlin Hodges is probably the only quarterback in the conference who can beat any team by himself if the playcalling is good enough.  Though the playoffs are certainly within reach, the road gets a little harder and uncertain, as they have to play a resurgent ETSU, offensive juggernaut Furman, and defensive powerhouse Mercer. If they lose one of those games, it’s likely they’ll get left out of the playoffs; if they lose two, it’s almost certain they’ll be left out.

Wofford 31 ETSU 24

Wofford once again won a game that was close in the fourth quarter.  This time, the Terriers never lost the lead and at one time led by two scores in the fourth quarter (something that’s only happened once this year prior to this week).  ETSU once again showed improvement as a third-year program, with Junior Quarterback Austin Herinck passing 23 of 34 for 262 yards and two touchdowns.  In the first half, the Terriers ran wild for close to 300 yards of total offense, including more yards passing than ETSU, but only had 17 points to show for it. The difference in this game was in the trenches as Wofford was able to control the line of scrimmage, limiting ETSU to 15 yards rushing on 33 attempts and harassing Herinck into making mistakes. Last week, Samford proved you could beat Wofford through the air (no run game necessary), but unlike Samford, ETSU tries to establish a run game in every game. ETSU’s passing game was sufficient to keep the game competitive into the final minutes. The game was in doubt on the last possession as ETSU drove inside Wofford’s 30, but failed on a fourth down conversion attempt.

ETSU is a pleasant surprise this year and has all the markings of a team that’s developing into a legitimate FCS program.  Though they currently don’t have the talent on the line of scrimmage to be successful (they are low in the conference standing in run defense, sacks allowed and rushing offense) they have a quarterback that can sling the ball over the field and a strong kicker who kicks touchbacks on 2 of every 3 kickoffs.  They have problems winning on the road, but every game they’ve played at home has gone down to the wire against the Citadel (6 point loss), Wofford (7 point loss) and Mercer (overtime win). As soon as this team improves in the trenches they will be hard to beat. Next week they may not need it as they play a winless VMI team at home.  With games against offensively challenged opponents in Chattanooga and VMI, look out for the Bucs possibly ending the year on a win streak.

The win for Wofford puts them at 7-1 and 5-1 in Socon play.  Another win would likely clinch a playoff spot (arguably they’re in with 7 wins right now), while two wins in the next two weeks would clinch the Socon and a possible seed for the Terriers. Though this game was frustrating to watch from the Terrier’s side, and at this point the one-score wins are getting old for the Terrier faithful, this was the third game of the season the Terriers never trailed. Ill-timed three and outs in the third quarter forced by the ETSU defense, prevented the Terriers from putting the game away. The “ifs” and “buts” have piled up on the Terriers this year, in a season that’s spectacularly odd. Mistakes in games they’ve led have kept games close they should win easily, while mistake by other teams in games they’ve trailed (Furman, Mercer) have kept them in a position to win.  By that measure, they’re lucky to be 7-1, but by another they are statistically about the same as last year in all categories, except passing which has shown improvement and sacks which has declined this year. Next week, Chattanooga will be a different challenge for the Terriers as the Moc defense is clearly better than ETSU’s (by virtue of both the statistics and being a fully developed division one program), but Conner Copeland and the Chattanooga offense are an enigma at this point. The Terriers will be favored, but if the past is any indication of the future this game will be close.

AGS Top 25 – How They Fared Week 9 2017

From superman7515 on AGS again.  Thanks supey.

#1 James Madison Dukes Won vs #27 New Hampshire Wildcats 21-0
#2 North Dakota State Bison Won vs #22 Northern Iowa Panthers 30-14
#3 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Won vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 23-7
#4 Central Arkansas Bears Won vs #21 McNeese State Cowboys 47-17
#5 South Dakota Coyotes Won vs #32 Southern Illinois Salukis 42-0
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats Won at #38 Southeastern Louisiana Lions 33-23
#7 Elon Phoenix Won at #18 Villanova Wildcats 19-14
#8 Western Illinois Leathernecks Lost vs #14 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24-52
#9 Wofford Terriers Won at East Tennessee State Buccaneers 31-24
#10 Samford Bulldogs Lost vs Chattanooga Mocs 21-23
#11 Western Carolina Catamounts Lost vs #30 Furman Paladins 6-28
#12 North Carolina A&T Aggies BYE
#13 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens Lost at Towson Tigers 17-18
#14 (t) Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Won vs #34 Sacramento State Hornets 37-17
#14 (t) South Dakota State Jackrabbits Won at #8 Western Illinois Leathernecks 52-24
#16 Southern Utah Thunderbirds Won at Northern Colorado Bears 27-14
#17 Eastern Washington Eagles BYE
#18 Villanova Wildcats Lost vs #7 Elon Phoenix 14-19
#19 Stony Brook Seawolves Won at #24 Richmond Spiders 27-24
#20 Illinois State Redbirds Won at #23 Youngstown State Penguins 35-0
#21 McNeese State Cowboys Lost at #4 Central Arkansas Bears 17-47
#22 Northern Iowa Panthers Lost at #2 North Dakota State Bison 14-30
#23 Youngstown State Penguins Lost vs #20 Illinois State Redbirds 0-35
#24 Richmond Spiders Lost vs #19 Stony Brook Seawolves 24-27
#25 Weber State Wildcats Won vs #26 Montana Grizzlies 41-27
Next 15
#26 Montana Grizzlies Lost at #25 Weber State Wildcats 27-41
#27 New Hampshire Wildcats Lost at #1 James Madison Dukes 0-21
#28 Monmouth Hawks Won at Charleston Southern Buccaneers 23-20
#29 Grambling State Tigers Won vs Texas Southern Tigers 50-24
#30 Furman Paladins Won at #11 Western Carolina Catamounts 28-6
#31 Nicholls State Colonels Won vs Incarnate Word Cardinals 38-31
#32 Southern Illinois Salukis Lost at #5 South Dakota Coyotes 0-42
#33 Columbia Lions Lost at Yale Bulldogs 6-23
#34 (t) Austin Peay Governors Lost at #18 (FBS) Central Florida Knights 33-73
#34 (t) Sacramento State Hornets Lost at #14 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 17-37
#36 North Carolina Central Eagles Won vs Delaware State Hornets 42-14
#37 Maine Black Bears Won vs William & Mary Tribe 23-6
#38 (t) Kennesaw State Owls Won at Presbyterian Blue Hose 28-0
#38 (t) Southeastern Louisiana Lions Lost vs #6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 23-33
#40 The Citadel Bulldogs Won vs Virginia Military Institute Keydets 21-3

 

 

MVFC – Week 9 Preview

MVFC LogoAnd then there were four…weeks left in the season, that is. As is often the case this time of year, nearly every game looks like it could have a huge impact in deciding who ends up playing after Thanksgiving and who gets to sit at home and eat turkey, dreaming about next year. There’s only two teams in the conference that are officially out of playoff contention, and they play each other this week, so all the rest of the games involve two teams that have a chance at the postseason, but for a few, it’s a pretty slim chance.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings.

So, here are the games this week:
1:00 PM – #14T South Dakota State (5-2, 2-2 MVFC) at #8 Western Illinois (5-2, 2-2 MVFC)
1:00 PM – #20 Illinois State (5-2, 3-1 MVFC) at #23 Youngstown State (3-4, 1-3 MVFC)
2:00 PM – Indiana State (0-7, 0-4 MVFC) at Missouri State (1-6, 0-4 MVFC)
2:30 PM – #22 Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1 MVFC) at #2 North Dakota State (7-0, 4-0 MVFC)
3:00 PM – #32 Southern Illinois (4-3, 2-2 MVFC) at #5 South Dakota (6-1, 3-1 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

#14T South Dakota State at #8 Western Illinois

Last Week:

  • South Dakota State won at Missouri State, 62-30
  • Western Illinois lost at North Dakota State, 24-12

History: The Jackrabbits and Leathernecks have played 14 times starting back in 1976. SDSU has a 9-5 series lead and a 3-4 series lead at Hanson Field. Last year’s matchup was a 52-14 blowout loss for Western at Brookings.

South Dakota State had a decent OOC portion of their season, beating up on two “lower scholarship” teams and getting a close win at Montana State. They then lost at YSU by 12, demolished SIU by 35, lost to UNI by 20, and steamrolled MSU by 32. Last year’s insane offensive attack of QB Taryn Christion, TE Dallas Goedert, and WR Jake Wieneke have been somewhat held in check this season, only putting up 258 ypg through the air, although they can still be dangerous at times, putting up an average of 38.4 ppg. The Jackrabbit defense is allowing 172 ypg on the ground (81st in FCS) but do better against the pass (45th in FCS) and is led by Christian Rozeboom, who is averaging 9.7 tackles per game. The SDSU defense struggles to get pressure on the line, only averaging 3.9 tackles for loss (1.57 sacks) per game on opposing offenses. The Jackrabbits as a whole are very disciplined, only getting hit with 4.29 penalties per game (8th in the FCS).

Western Illinois had a similar situation, winning all 3 OOC games, losing by 5 to USD, winning at UNI by 9, beating MSU at home by 19, then losing at NDSU by 12, putting them both at 5-2 on the season. QB Sean McGuire and WR Jaelon Acklin headline an offense that puts up 37.6 points per game. Acklin specifically is currently 4th in the FCS with 134.7 receiving yards per game and 6th in receiving TDs with 8 (tied with SDSU’s Jake Wieneke). Defensively, the Leathernecks are averaging 8.4 tackles for loss per game and are led by LB Brett Taylor, who leads the entire FCS with 14.9 tackles per game and an experienced defensive line that allows 121 ypg on the ground. The DBs have been suspect, giving up 242 yards per game via air (still an improvement over last year’s 297 ypg). Western is one of the better teams in the FCS at both gaining turnovers (13th) and not losing the ball themselves (6th) resulting in a “3rd in the FCS” turnover margin of +1.71/game that currently leads the MVFC.

So, the two top WRs in the conference right now on two of the better offenses, going against defenses that have both shown some weaknesses. Sounds like a pretty high scoring game to me. I think Western will move the ball pretty well on the ground but might struggle on longer passes, whereas the reverse will likely be true for South Dakota State. I think the two teams are fairly evenly matched right now, with maybe a slight edge to the Leathernecks. My guess is that WIU will be a little more effective on offense, maybe pick up an extra turnover or two, and come away with a 6-point win. Probably with both teams in the 30s to low 40s point range.

#20 Illinois State at #23 Youngstown State (Homecoming)

Last Week:

  • Illinois State beat South Dakota, 37-21
  • Youngstown State lost at Northern Iowa, 19-14

History: The Redbirds and Penguins have played 26 times starting in 1979 with the all-time series tied up at 13 each. Last year’s meeting was a 20-6 YSU victory in Normal.

Illinois State had been coming off of two embarrassing road losses (to Northern Arizona and SIU) where they’d been outscored 79-23, and had nearly had their playoff hopes written off with a series of 5 very tough games to finish out the season…before roaring back into the playoff conversation by taking down previously unbeaten South Dakota…by 16 points. The Redbirds are led by QB Jake Kolbe who is throwing for 251 ypg and has 10 TDs and 9 INTs. WR Spencer Schnell gets the majority of the catches, with 87 ypg and 4 TDs, although turned in a 191 yards and 2 TD receiving game against USD. RB James Robinson (80 ypg and 6 TDs) also had a great game against USD with 193 yards and 2 TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, LB Tyree Horton leads the team in tackles with 48 including 6 for loss (2 sacks) and a forced fumble and recovery. The Redbird defense is particularly strong against the run, ranking 5th in the FCS in run defense, although they have had a tendency to give up a decent number of yards through the air to good passing teams. They struggle with turnovers (-0.71 margin per game) and allowing tackles for loss (102nd in FCS).

Youngstown State meanwhile, has found themselves in a freefall the last few weeks. Last year’s national championship runner-up started with an OT loss to FBS Pitt, then three straight wins before losing the next three straight (against some pretty tough teams), but they now find themselves with a losing record and the need to win pretty much all of their final 4 games to have a shot at the playoffs. It’s kinda hard to go by stats with YSU, since they’ve had three different players at QB this season (who are three different types of QBs). It sounds like Ricky Davis (primarily a WR) will likely get the start at QB. He’s thrown for 106 yards on 6 completions with 1 TD so far this season. RB Tevin McCaster needs to have a great game if they want any hope of winning this though…he’s averaging just over 89 ypg with 9 TDs, although only had 26 yards against UNI last week. S Kyle Hegedus is the top tackler (53) on one of the better passing defenses in the FCS (7th), but they’ve given up quite a few yards on the ground. They do exceptionally well at not giving up the ball (1st in the FCS) but not great at forcing and gaining turnovers (2nd to last in the FCS).

YSU is essentially already in the playoffs…having to win out to keep playing past the regular season. ILSU has a bit more leeway currently, but the way the rest of their schedule looks, they probably need 2 or more wins to make it in and it’s not going to be an easy schedule. They’ll want to have a solid running game to take the win against the Penguins, which I think they’ll be able to do. I think ILSU is going to come out really well against a battered-up YSU and nab a win by about 8 points.

Indiana State at Missouri State (Homecoming)

Last Week:

  • Indiana State lost to Southern Illinois, 45-24
  • Missouri State lost to South Dakota State, 62-30

History: The Sycamores have played the Bears 31 times starting in 1986. MSU has a 18-13 series lead and last year’s meeting was a 45-24 victory for the Bears in Terre Haute.

Indiana State has taken a preseason last place MVFC ranking and gone downhill from there. They had a couple of close games OOC, but injuries have really taken their toll, causing the Sycamores to be outscored 177-43 in 4 MVFC matchups. QB Cade Sparks is averaging only 123 ypg with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. Two bright spots on offense are WR and return specialist Bob Pugh with 81.14 ypg and 3 TDs receiving, a 15 yard per punt return average and a 19.1 yard per kickoff return average; and RB LeMonte Booker with just over 80 ypg and 3 TDs on the ground + 73 total yards and a TD receiving. Booker actually turned in an impressive 104 yard rushing performance against NDSU (the most rushing yards the Bison have given up to any RB this season) even though the team was shut out. Outside of their run defense, Indiana State is ranked in the bottom 20 in the FCS in just about all defensive categories. Their top tacklers are LB Jonas Griffith (64 tackles, 5 for loss w/ 2.5 sacks, and 1 fumble recovery) and LB Katrell Moss (63 tackles, 5.5 for loss).

Missouri State has mostly played closer games against some teams, and actually have a win this season, but like INSU, are winless in the MVFC. QB Peyton Huslig has been throwing for 187 ypg with 5 TDs and 9 INTs but also runs for just under 40 ypg and 2 TDs. WR Malik Earl averages 82.7 ypg and has 2 TDs receiving. In total, they’re averaging around 352 ypg. On the other side of the ball, LB McNeece Egbim leads the team with 43 tackles including 5 for loss (1 sack) and 1 fumble recovery. D-Lineman Colby Isbell has 3 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles this season. Outside of that though, there’s not much to be excited about, with MSU having the worst defense in total yardage allowed in the entire FCS, giving up just under 520 ypg. They do have an excellent kick returner with Deion Holliman leading the conference in punt return average (14.6 per kick) and 5th in the conference in kickoff returns (22.8 yards per kick).

Whoever wins this game will be able the claim that they are not last in the conference this year…but that’s about it, unfortunately. Neither team will be playing in the playoffs and this is each team’s best chance at a conference win…I mean…somebody’s gotta win…right? Both teams have really bad defenses, but I think MSU’s offense is a little better. I think they’ll both give up quite a few points, but it’s at MSU, and it’s their Homecoming game, so I think MSU will come away with the win by a TD.

#22 Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1 MVFC) at #2 North Dakota State

Last Week:

  • Northern Iowa beat Youngstown State, 19-14
  • North Dakota State beat Western Illinois, 24-12

History: The Panthers and Bison have played each other 50 times starting back in 1938, with UNI holding a slim series lead, 24-26. The majority of the Northern Iowa wins came prior to 1960 though, with UNI going 18-4 from ’38-’62. NDSU had a great deal of success in the ’60s and ’70s, winning 13 of the 17 matchups from ’63-’79, and since 1980, have gone 7-4 in the series. The Bison have won the last three meetings, with last year’s game being a 24-20 NDSU win at Cedar Falls.

Northern Iowa had a bit of a rough start to the season, going 1-2 OOC with an OT win against Cal Poly as their only victory. In the MVFC, they beat SIU by 7 then lost to WIU by 9. From that point though, the Panthers have looked like a much better team, demolishing SDSU by 20 and beating last year’s championship runner-up YSU by 5. A big part of this resurgence has been the return (from injury) of RB Marcus Weymiller who has averaged 151 yards and 2 TDs per game in those last two games, which has allowed the UNI offense to become much less one-dimensional. They have also changed up their defensive scheme somewhat in the last couple of games and appears to be much better at stopping the run. In the first 5 games for UNI, they averaged allowing 177.6 ypg on the ground and 31.8 ppg. In their last two games, however (against the strong offense of SDSU and the power run game of YSU), they have only given up a total of 99 yards on the ground and 32 total points…all while holding steady against the pass. In the first 5 games, UNI’s defense averaged 4.4 tackles for loss per game, last two games…10 per game, and in the first 6 games (includes the win over SDSU), they had 6 sacks for 45 yards…against YSU they had 10 sacks for 56 yards. So, to say the UNI defense has stepped up recently would be a HUGE understatement.

North Dakota State is a tough team with the #1 defense in passing yards allowed, total yards allowed, and scoring, and the #4 run defense. They are #2 in scoring and have #4 run game in the FCS. They are one of 4 teams in the FCS who are currently undefeated and have been able to grind out wins against good teams like YSU (in OT) and WIU. Last I heard, NDSU will be without their top RB, Lance Dunn, who was injured in last week’s game against WIU, but it seems like QB Easton Stick has really been playing a lot better the last couple of weeks, so they may not need Dunn as much if Stick keeps going the way he’s been going. Stick had 90 yards and 2 TDs rushing in their first 5 games total, but in the last two games, those same numbers are 233 yards and 3 TDs. WR RJ Urzendowski also had a good game last weekend with 4 catches for 100 yards and a TD. The NDSU defense has been solid all season with the rise of Redshirt Freshman LB Jabril Cox who has 12 tackles w/ 4 for loss (3 sacks) in the last two games, and with the return of SR LB Nick DeLuca following an injury, who has had 16 tackles in the last two games.

These are two very good football teams, with a pretty big rivalry, both playing really their best football of the season. Can the Bison defense stop Weymiller, one of the hottest RBs of the conference right now? Can UNI’s improved run defense stop the exceptional NDSU ground game? Can Northern Iowa continue their hot streak against the toughest team in the toughest conference in the FCS or does North Dakota State continue their unbeaten streak on to 8 games? My view is that a couple of weeks ago, I would have said that UNI wouldn’t fare very well at the Fargodome, but with what they’ve done lately, I think they do stand a much better chance now. Personally though, I think UNI will fall just a bit short. Bison with a 2-point, low-scoring win.

#32 Southern Illinois at #5 South Dakota

Last Week:

  • Southern Illinois won at Indiana State, 45-24
  • South Dakota lost at Illinois State, 37-21

History: The Salukis and Coyotes have played a grand total of 3 games against each other beginning in 2014. SIU holds the 2-1 series lead including winning last year’s contest…a 35-28 Saluki win in Carbondale. In all three matchups, the home team has won.

Southern Illinois has been somewhat “up-and-down” this season, winning their first two games (MVSU & SEMO), losing the next three (FBS Memphis, UNI, SDSU), but then winning the last two games…surprisingly dominantly against Illinois State and then by a solid margin over Indiana State. A bit part of those wins were due to the improvement in the passing game, with SIU putting up 350+ passing yards in both games, when their previous season high was 290 against Memphis. Excluding the MVSU game, the Saluki run game has also been solid, putting up 180-185 yards in both games and with 5 total rushing TDs, as opposed to 2 rushing TDs and a high of 161 yards in the previous 4 games. QB Sam Straub has stepped up, averaging 266 ypg with 20 TDs this season, although he does have a tendency to turn the ball over relatively often, with 9 INTs so far. SIU’s defense is also improving, but is still nowhere near the level of their offense, giving up an average of about 382 ypg and 24 ppg…not horrible, but roughly in the middle of the FCS rankings. They’re led by top-tackler S Ryan Neal with 52 tackles and 3 INTs, and DL Anthony Knighton has the most tackles for loss (7) and sacks (4) on the defense. Punter Lane Reazin is leading the conference (5th in the FCS) in punting average with 45.3 yards per punt.

South Dakota had been surprising just about everyone, winning their first 6 straight games, including wins over FBS Bowling Green, WIU, and YSU before running into Illinois State. Stats-wise, QB Chris Streveler has been a 1-man-army, although he did have his first two INTs of the season against ILSU (which helped contribute to the loss), but he’s still leading the team in passing yards (329 per game), passing TDs (19), rushing yards (68 per game), and rushing TDs (8). In their loss to the Redbirds, the USD run game was held in check, only putting up 114 yards (their lowest of the season). In general though, the Coyotes have a very high-scoring offense, putting up an average of 563 ypg (#1 in FCS) and 43.3 ppg (#3) and a fairly solid defense, allowing 20.7 ppg for opponents. DB Andrew Gray leads the team with 45 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 4 passes defended, and a fumble recovery, and DL Darin Greenfield currently leads the FCS in tackles for loss, with 15 including 5 sacks, in addition to his 32 tackles and 8 QB hurries.

South Dakota has been playing very well at their home dome this season, and I think they should be able to get things back on track against SIU. The Salukis might be able to notch a few scores against the Coyotes, but I think that USD will be able to put up a solid amount more on the SIU defense. Not that you should anyway, but this is REALLY one of those matchups where you can’t look at common opponents/transitive property…SIU beat ILSU by 35 and ILSU beat USD by 16, so SIU should beat USD by 51 points, right?…while it’s theoretically possible, I don’t think SIU will win by even 1/10th that. My prediction, Coyotes rock the Dakota Dome for “Heroes Day” and win by a comfortable 21 points.

Patriot League: Week 9 Preview

Bucknell (4-3, 1-1 ) at Colgate (4-4, 2-1) – Oct. 28th 1 PM Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Bucknell and Colgate tangle for the 66th time in a crucial Patriot League contest Saturday afternoon. The Raiders have dominated this series overall (48-17 all-time lead) and in recent times. Colgate has won 9 out of the last 10 meetings between the two league foes. Bucknell’s only win in that time frame came at Andy Kerr Stadium 4 years ago. Not only do the Bison own the Patriot League’s only winning record as the season enters its 9th week but they also control their own destiny in the league race. If Bucknell is able to finish the regular season with wins over Colgate, Lehigh, Georgetown and at Fordham they’ll capture their first league title since 1996 and the program’s first ever 1-AA/FCS playoff bid. The Raiders are still in the mix but they need to win out and hope either Lehigh loses two games or there’s a 3-way log jam and the tiebreakers fall in their favor.  Both teams enter this game riding solid waves of momentum. Colgate has dominated their last two league foes (Fordham and Holy Cross) while Bucknell is coming off an epic overtime win over Lafayette.

With the way Grant Breneman and the Colgate offense is playing the last 3 weeks (466 ypg) Coach Hunt and his staff have to like how the unit has progressed from the start of the year. With that said, Bucknell’s defense (289 ypg allowed, 10th in FCS) is, with all due respect to Lafayette, the stingiest in the league. The key to this game will be Colgate’s ability to establish the run and Bucknell’s ability to stop it. On paper Colgate is a very balanced team (164 ypg passing, 177 ypg rushing) but they’re still very much run first with Holland, Mathews and Breneman all capable of making big plays with their legs. If Abdullah Anderson and the extremely formidable Bison front 7 is able to limit the damage on the ground and force Breneman to throw the ball 30+ times they have to like their chances to keep the Raiders offense in check.

Ultimately, Bucknell’s offense must control the ball and put points on the board when the opportunities present themselves. This is a game where wasted red zone trips will doom you. They won last week without scoring an offensive touchdown and have been wildly inconsistent all year. The Bison are averaging a paltry 76 ypg on the ground which is the main reason for their struggles. Quarterback John Chiarolanzio has been forced to carry much of the load which has stressed the “O”. If Colgate’s offense can avoid turnovers and the defense prevents Jack Horan from making a big play or two in the passing game they should be able to hold Bucknell to under 20 points.

Bucknell has had a nice season to date but top to bottom Colgate is the better team. If the Raiders avoid mistakes and are efficient on offense they’ll keep their playoff hopes alive.

Prediction: Colgate 27 Bucknell 13

Lehigh (2-5, 2-0) at Fordham (2-6, 1-2) – Oct. 28th 1 PM Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

The preseason Patriot League Game of The Year has turned into a late October battle of 2 win teams. Lehigh entered the season as the odds on favorite to win the league but a historically bad defense (513 ypg allowed, 122nd in FCS) resulted in a 0-5 out of conference record. Thankfully for the Mountain Hawks they still possess one of the top offenses in FCS and a 2-0 league mark that includes a win over Colgate. Simply put, if they run the table (@ Fordham, @ Bucknell, Holy Cross, Lafayette) they’ll repeat as Patriot League Champions. Fordham’s 2 win season does not nearly have the same silver lining. Sure the Rams are mathematically alive for the league title but there dominos aren’t likely to fall that perfectly. Injuries and, like Lehigh, a terrible defense has derailed Fordham’s season. Preseason All-American running back Chase Edmonds has been in and out of the lineup for much of the season with a tweaked ankle. When Edmonds has played his production has been way down. 5th year senior quarterback Kevin Anderson has also missed time. As this point with 2 league losses Fordham is basically relegated to spoiler status. If nothing else, Fordham should want to exact some payback on Lehigh for the beating the Mountain Hawks administered last year in Bethlehem. Fordham has won the last two meetings in the Bronx. They scored 50+ points in both wins.

There’s no question the best unit on the field this Saturday will be the Lehigh offense. Led by quarterback Brad Mayes (353 ypg, 20 TDs 9 INTs) the Brown and White “O” continues to put up huge numbers on opposing defenses. Mayes’s favorite target, Preseason All-League WR Troy Pelletier, is coming off a school record 16 reception performance against Georgetown.  The senior has been virtually uncoverable in recent weeks. While Fordham’s pass defense has been “ok” statistically (231 ypg, 71st in FCS) high powered passing attacks have lit it up. To add to Fordham’s concerns on defense is a Lehigh rushing attack that has picked up steam in league play (228 ypg). Unless Lehigh turns the ball over it’s hard to imagine Fordham containing them. The Rams need DT Manny Adeyeye and the rest of the front 7 to play raise their level of play and pressure the heck out of Mayes to have any chance.

Before the season started this game figured to be an old school WAC type shootout between two of the best offenses in country. Now the potential of a shootout is based on Lehigh’s really good offense and their really bad defense. The question for Fordham is, can they exploit the Mountain Hawk’s obvious weakness? Outside of WR Austin Longi it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be ready to go on offense for the Rams. Edmonds has been listed as a starter more than once this year and failed to play. There’s rumors circulating around Anderson’s status so who knows there. If Anderson can’t go Luke Medlock will once again get the start. Whoever takes the field for Fordham;s offense is likely to have success against Lehigh’s defense. But not having Edmonds and Anderson at 100% is going to be costly when the offense has so little room for error.

Prediction: Lehigh 57 Fordham 31

Georgetown (1-6, 0-2) at Holy Cross (2-6, 1-2) – Oct. 28th 1 PM Fitton Field Worcester, MA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Last place in the Patriot League might be on the line when Holy Cross and Georgetown duke it out Saturday. The Crusader’s level of play did not improve in Brian Rock’s first game as interim head coach. Holy Cross displayed a lack of energy and passion against Yale two weeks ago and that carried over to last week against Colgate. As a result, the Eli and Raiders outscored the Crusaders by a combined 77-7. There’s sadly no apparent positives to point to at this point if you’re a Holy Cross fan. Even starting quarterback Peter Pujals is struggling mightily. Perhaps the only thing they can take solace in is the old saying that “misery loves company” because things aren’t going much better for Georgetown. The Hoyas head to New England on a 6 game losing streak. The offense remains the Hoyas biggest issue. The unit currently ranks 110th in yards per game (279). Georgetown’s rushing attack is virtually non-existent (54.4 ypg 121st in FCS). Alex Valles leads the team with 154 yards rushing, for the season!

This game is going to come down to who wants it more. Georgetown might be limited in talent but they come to fight for 60 minutes. That obviously can’t be said for Holy Cross the last two weeks. The Crusaders have a more talented roster even though the results recently don’t reflect it. You don’t come within whisker of beating FBS UConn then crush a Top 25 New Hampshire team without competent players. This is the time when Pujals really needs to step-up and lead the offense on and off the field. Likewise, Nick McBeath needs be the heart and soul of the Crusaders “D”. These two have invested way too much in to Holy Cross football to go out in an embarrassing fashion.

Georgetown simply needs to play better on offense. Gunther Johnson (661 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs) has shown flashes of serious potential at quarterback but without any help from the rushing attack he’s been under constant pressure. Unless the Hoyas can put together some semblance of a ground game the Arizona transfer will continue to be a one man band in the backfield. Holy Cross knows this and will hedge their bets that Johnson doesn’t have the weapons outside that are capable of hurting the defense.  Fordham used this approach last week on their way to holding the Hoyas to 9 points. The game will come down to the wire with Holy Cross escaping with a MUCH needed win.

Prediction: Holy Cross 20 Georgetown 17

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1024 – WEEK 9 PREVIEW

The guys go over these games in the preview this week:

Furman @ Western Carolina

Northern Iowa @ North Dakota State

McNeese State @ Central Arkansas

Montana @ Weber State

Elon @ Nova

Sam Houston State @ Southeastern Louisiana

South Dakota State @ Western Illinois

Stony Brook @ Richmond

Good previews with some good stats you might not have known about prior to listening to these guys.

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Patriot League: Week 8 Review and Power Rankings

Week 8 of the Patriot League season was highlighted by a classic defensive struggle between Bucknell and Lafayette. Colin Jonov’s 95 yard pick six on the first play of overtime gave the Bison a thrilling 13-7 win. Colgate, while not nearly exciting, also posted a crucial win. The Raiders easily dispatched a downtrodden Crusader team in Worcester to remain in the hunt for the Patriot League title. The third game last weekend saw Fordham end their 5 game losing streak against Georgetown. The Rams did so without several key starters.

Colgate 45 Holy Cross 7

Holy Cross did not get any immediate results from replacing long time head coach Tom Gilmore with offensive coordinator Brian Rock in an embarrassing 45-7 point loss to Colgate. The 38 point margin of defeat was Holy Cross’s largest in the history of the series (80 games). For the third time in four weeks the Crusader offense struggled to do much of anything. Fifth year senior quarterback Peter Pujals (13-24  1 TD 3 INT vs Colgate) has really been off during this recent stretch which is the main reason the unit’s production has fallen off a cliff. The only chance Holy Cross has this year to right the ship is if he plays better and the defense raises their play. If he continues to struggle and the defense can’t pick up the slack Rock might be wise to allow one of the quarterbacks of the future to get a shot. At this point, it might be wise for interim head coach Rock to look 2018 and beyond at all positions.

One quarterback that does have it rolling right now is Colgate’s Grant Breneman (16-24 222 yards 2 TDs, 11 rushes 36 yards 2 TDs). The freshman signal caller accounted for 4 touchdowns in the Raiders demolition of Holy Cross. His 12 yard TD toss to Nick Diaco on the Raider’s first possession of the game gave Colgate the early 7-0 lead. The Crusaders would respond with their only points of the game on the ensuing drive. Pujals connected with Andre Harton for a short 7 yard touchdown to tie the game at 7. Chris Puzzi’s chip-shot 26 yard FG early in the 2nd quarter gave the lead back to Colgate at 10-7. Following a Crusader 3 and out, James Holland (16 carries 109 yards 1 TD) 1 yard plunge into the endzone extended the Raider lead to 17-7 midway through the second quarter. Colgate blew the game open with a dominating third quarter that saw the Raiders outscore Holy Cross 21-0.

Up Next: Colgate hosts Bucknell in a very important league battle. Holy Cross welcomes Georgetown to Fitton Field in a likely battle for last place.

Fordham 17 Georgetown 9

Since their offense was without Kevin Anderson, Chase Edmonds and a trio of wide receivers Fordham needed to rely on their much maligned defense in a narrow win over Georgetown. The “W” snapped Fordham’s five game losing streak that dated back to September 9th (38-31 over Central Conn. State).  The Hoyas had five (not counting the final possession with 8 seconds left) possessions in the 4th quarter but failed to notch a single 1st down let alone the 8 points needed to tie the game. Fordham limited Georgetown to 246 total yards and 11 first downs on the game. This year’s battle followed a similar script as last season’s tussle in the Bronx that also saw Fordham win. The Hoyas certainly had their chances but their inability to make plays on offense when needed cost them again.

Fordham was able to get one the board first thanks to Andrew Mevis’s 30 yard field with 6:17 left in the opening quarter. Mevis would tack on a 31 yarder early in the 2nd quarter to extend the lead to 6-0. Georgetown finally got the offense going on their fifth possession of the game. Gunther Johnson (17-35 196 yards 1 TD) found Max Edwards for a 12 yard touchdown that appeared to give the Hoyas a 1 point lead with the extra point pending. However, Fordham’s Jesse Bramble blocked the point after attempt then was able to scoop it up and return it for 2 points. When the dust settled Fordham was still leading 8-6 with 3:11 left before half. Georgetown was finally able to take the lead in the third quarter. Brad Hurst’s 27 yard FG capped a lengthy 11 play 67 yard drive that took 5:38 off the clock. The advantage would be short lived as Fordham would immediately respond with a brisk 5 play 75 yard drive that took just over to 2 minutes to complete. Backup quarterback Luke Medlock (25-45 258 yards 1 TD) hooked up with Austin Longi for the go ahead 12 yard touchdown. Fordham attempted a 2 point try to extend the lead to 7 but failed. As a result of the failed conversion the Ram advantage stood at 14-9 with 7:16 left in the 3rd quarter. Mevis’s third field goal of the game pushed the Ram lead to 17-9 with a little over 9 minutes left. From there, the Fordham defense would preserve the win.

Wide receiver Austin Longi had a monster day (13 rec. 150 yards 1 TD) for Fordham that included a highlight reel catch that didn’t count because he landed out of bounds.

Up Next: Fordham returns to the Bronx to take on Lehigh in what was suppose to be the Patriot League game of the year. The Hoyas take the long bus ride to Worcester, MA to tangle with Holy Cross in a battle of struggling teams/programs.

Bucknell 13 Lafayette 7 OT

For the second time this season the Bucknell Bison (4-3, 1-1) won in thrilling fashion on the last play of the game.  Colin Jonov’s 95 yard pick six in the 1st overtime broke the hearts of the Lafayette Leopards (2-6, 2-1) and sent the Bison sideline into an absolute frenzy. It was Bucknell’s second pick six of the game. With the win (4th straight over Lafayette), Bucknell is only team in the Patriot League with a winning record at the conclusion of week 8. The “W” also thrusts the Orange and Blue right in the thick of the league title race. With games remaining against Colgate and Lehigh the Bison now control their own fate as they try to capture their second league title and first ever trip to the FCS playoffs. Lafayette is still in position to grab at least a share of the title if they win out. But given the state of their offense it seems rather improbable. The Bison “O” isn’t exactly lighting it up either but they have at least some balance that opposing defenses have to respect. Plus, their defense is once again playing at a very high level (20 ppg allowed, 30th in FCS).

It didn’t take long for the Bison “D” to make their presence known in this one. On Lafayette’s 4th play from scrimmage Drew Newcomb jumped an out-route for a 31 yard pick six. Leopard quarterback Sean O’Malley had his worse game (16-30 90 yards 2 INTs) since the Villanova debacle in week 2. O’Malley did however get some unexpected help from the rushing attack to keep Lafayette in the game. C.J. Amil and Selwyn Simpson combined for almost 100 yards which was a major improvement for the Leopards anemic rushing attack. The two were crucial (57 of the 60 yards) during Lafayette’s only scoring drive of the game. Simpson was able to muscle into the endzone from 2 yards out to tie the game at 7 with 7:50 left in the 3rd quarter. Both defenses would then proceed to dominate the action until Bucknell’s offense put together their best drive of the game in the 4th quarter. That’s when Bison quarterback John Chiarolanzio (14-25 129 yards 1 INT) led a 17 play 69 yard drive that would last over 8 minutes. Ultimately, the drive stalled at the Lafayette 25 yard line with a little over a minute left in regulation and the Bison called upon John Buskirk to boot a 42 yard go ahead FG. Buskirk would push the kick to the right and the game headed to overtime. That’s when Jonov pick sixed O’Malley on the first play of OT to end the game in dramatic fashion!

Up Next: Bucknell heads to Central New York to butt heads with Colgate in an extremely crucial league contest. Lafayette is on a much needed bye as they try to regroup for one last run at the Patriot League title.

Power Rankings

  1. Colgate – The Raiders continue to play their best football of the year. They must beat Bucknell to keep their playoff hopes alive.
  2. Bucknell – The Bison own the league’s only winning record thanks to a defense that is rounding into form at the perfect time. Destiny is in their hands but Colgate in Hamilton will be a tall order.
  3. Lehigh – The Mountain Hawks come off their bye all alone at the top of the Patriot League standings. If the coaching staff was able to figure out some things to help the defense they’re likely to remain there. It all starts with Fordham this week.
  4. Lafayette – The Leopards couldn’t win a 3rd straight down to the wire Patriot League game. Still, a Colgate win over Bucknell and the Leopards will be right back in the thick of the title race following their bye.
  5. Fordham – The Rams MASH unit was able to score a much needed win over Georgetown. Now they try to exact some revenge on Lehigh after last year’s thumping in Bethlehem. In order to make that happen they healthy bodies. First and foremost, Anderson and Edmonds.
  6. Georgetown – The Hoyas have fought extremely hard in their two most recent losses. If they continue to battle like hell they have a great chance to notch at least 1 league win.
  7. Holy Cross – The Crusaders are in the midst of one of the worst stretches in program history. There are no obvious positives to draw from at this point. If the effort doesn’t improve they won’t win another game this season.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1024 – WEEK 8 REVIEW

One of the best shows so far this year.  Kris & Lance go over their voting prowess and their philosophy on it each week.  I know many AGS Poll voters have similar strategies to finding the best way to a conclusion but it is interesting to listen to for sure.

The games they go over this week:

Illinois St 37 South Dakota 21

Samford 24 Wofford 21

Southern Utah 46 EWU 28

Delaware 42 Richmond 35 2OT

JSU 30 EIU 14

NDSU 24 WIU 12

You made it this far, it would seem odd to not listen at this point.

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Big Sky Round-Up Week 8

Southern Utah just keeps on rolling, and Cal Poly just keeps getting rolled. Welcome to week 8 of the Big Sky Round-Up!

Two weeks in a row Southern Utah has taken down one of the top teams in the conference, winning games they shouldn’t be winning, and doing it convincingly both times. Last week the Thunderbirds got the best of Weber State and this week they took down an FCS top ten team, Eastern Washington. The T-Birds started off a little slow, but completely dominated the second half against the potent Eagles offense. The Thunderbird defense talked Gage Gabrud into throwing three interceptions in a solid defensive effort. In all the Southern Utah defense got Eastern Washington to turn the ball over four times, including a back breaker late in the fourth quarter. Eastern Washington score once in the second half, an Antoine Custer touchdown run early in the fourth quarter. At that point the Eagles had a three point lead, from there on out it was the Patrick Tyler show. Tyler finished 22/33 for 183 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 49 yards. Gabrud finished with 246 yards and a touchdown, and three turnovers. Eastern Washington will have a bye, while Southern Utah will head to Northern Colorado.

North Dakota’s year just isn’t getting any better and at this point they’re just hoping to get through the season without any more injuries. On Saturday they had the visiting Sacramento State Hornets in town to check out the Fabulous Alerus Center. Sacramento State rolled off 24 points in the third quarter to get a handle on this game and never looked back, despite a flurry of activity from the Hawks in the fourth quarter. The Hornets were aided by a North Dakota fumble and returned for a touchdown by Marcus Bruce. Hawks quarterback Andrew Zimmerman attempted to lead a comeback, throwing a touchdown in the fourth quarter to Noah Wanzek but couldn’t get much traction to close the game. Roman Ale had an efficient day going 13/19 for 263 yards and two scores. Sacramento State will head to Flagstaff to take on Northern Arizona, while North Dakota will make a long trip to take on slightly worse Portland State.

Montana State looked like it was pretty much left for dead on Saturday at Northern Colorado, then went to the well and discovered a bunch of fourth quarter points hiding in there. The Bears had a comfortable 21-7 lead at the half and 24-10 to start the fourth quarter. However, the Bears defense wasn’t up to the task of keeping Montana State from scoring. The Bears gave up 17 points to drop a home contest by three points on Saturday. Chris Murray threw for 222 yards and rushed for 150 yards with a combined two touchdowns to lead the Bobcat comeback. The Bears were without starting quarterback Jacob Knipp who is out for the season. Backup Conor Regan had a nice game, but the Bears ground game had a hard time getting anywhere against the Bobcats. Bobcat freshman kicker Gabe Peppenger broke the tie with no time left to win it for the Bobcats. Montana State will host Idaho State, while Northern Colorado will have a bye.

Okay, so Portland State is bad. They are so bad that also usually bad, Idaho State, scored 59 points on them. Forty-two of those points came in the second and third quarters. Twenty-four of those points came consecutively. Tanner Gueller was responsible for 21 of them. But hey, Portland State got on the board first, they recorded a safety on Idaho State’s first possession. Idaho State had two rushers over 100 yards, James Madison (not the school, nor the president) rushed for 160 yards, Ty Flanagan had 108 and four touchdowns. Tanner Gueller had 327 yards passing and three touchdowns. Idaho State will be heading to Montana State this weekend, while Portland State hosts North Dakota in the Big Sky Pillow Fight of the Week.

In a game I fully expected to become a track meet somewhat lived up to that reputation but did not quite have the fireworks that we all expected. Northern Arizona and UC-Davis scored a lot of points, but 76 seemed like not as much as you’d think you’d get here. Case Cookus had 293 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Lumberjacks over the Aggies. Elijah Marks continued his one man assault as a receiver hauling in 174 yards and a touchdown. His counterpart, UC-Davis receiver Keelan Doss had 106 yards and two scores. Outside of Doss, a pedestrian day of offense for the Aggies. Northern Arizona cooked up a 28 point second quarter to take control of this game and never look back. At one point in this game I thought to myself, “This looks like the kind of game NAU is going to just get their hearts broke.” But as we’re seeing they’re playing it out for Jerome Souers. Northern Arizona will host Sacramento State, while UC-Davis will host Cal Poly.

Weber State made the trip to wine country to give us a snoozer against the worst team in the Big Sky, Cal Poly. Weber State got their starting quarterback, Stefan Cantwell, back after an injury and did just enough to get the Wildcats to a win. Cantwell had 182 yards and two scores, while rushing for another 54 yards for the Wildcats. Weber State running back Treshawn Garrett had 69 yards on the ground. Cal Poly bigly struggled on offense much of the day, as their three points on the scoreboard show. Weber State got a touchdown from David Jones hauling in a Cantwell pass. They capped the game with a Drew Batchelor touchdown catch. The teams combined for seven turnovers, which is the same number of passes that Cal Poly completed. Cal Poly will head to Davis, while Weber State will host Montana.

Scores

Sacramento State 34
North Dakota 27

Montana State 27
Northern Colorado 24

Portland State 30
Idaho State 59

UC-Davis 31
Northern Arizona 45

Eastern Washington 28
Southern Utah 46

Weber State 17
Cal Poly 3

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky Player of the Week is Southern Utah quarterback Patrick Tyler. Tyler was 22/33 for 183 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 49 yards, as the Thunderbirds knocked off Eastern Washington in Cedar City this past weekend.

Big Sky MVP Rankings

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington – 24/44 for 246 yards 1 TD, 3 INT
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 9 receptions, 174 yards, 1 TD
Tanner Gueller, QB, Idaho State – 14/23 for 327 yards, 3 TD
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 10 receptions, 106 yards, 2 TD
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – Idle

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Eastern Washington
3. Weber State
4. Montana
5. Northern Arizona
6. Montana State
7. Sacramento State
8. Idaho State
9. UC-Davis
10. Northern Colorado
11. North Dakota
12. Portland State
13. Cal Poly

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Southern Utah, wow what are you guys doing? That defense is a salty bunch, and they’ve completely shut down two pretty good offenses in consecutive weeks.

On the other hand, the bottom of the Big Sky is very very bad.

Sacramento State got votes this week for the FCS top 25. I don’t even know how this happened, or what planet we’re on now, but here we are. When’s the last time the Hornets got top 25 votes?

Montana and Weber State should be a fun one this weekend.. a group of dudes, including myself, are headed south to take this game in. This might be the most sober road trip I’ve ever gone on. Send help.

Keelan Doss is an underrated receiver in this league. So good, big numbers every week, should be first team All-Big Sky when it’s said and done this season.

Chris Murray at Montana State is a one-man show.. he does a lot for that Montana State offense, but man. Watching him throw a football is not a thing of beauty. He gets it done, I’ll just never know how.

I think it’s fair to say right now that there is no great teams in the Big Sky, a lot of good teams, but no one that’s going to be playing in the semifinals of the playoffs this season.

MVFC – Week 8 in Review

MVFC LogoAnother week of games, and a couple more upsets. Seems like this is often the way it goes…a bunch of tough teams able to grind out wins against higher-ranked opponents.

First up though, let’s take a look at conference standings, where teams are in relation to being set up for a playoff spot or if they’re already out of the picture. I’ll list the team, then overall record, conference record, and then each team’s remaining 4 games of the regular season.

School Overall Conference Remaining 4 Games
North Dakota State 7-0 4-0 UNI, @SDSU, USD, @ILSU
South Dakota 6-1 3-1 SIU, @UNI, @NDSU, SDSU
Illinois State 5-2 3-1 @YSU, WIU, @SDSU, NDSU
Northern Iowa 4-3 3-1 @NDSU, USD, @MSU, INSU
Western Illinois 5-2 2-2 SDSU, @ILSU, @INSU, SIU
South Dakota State 5-2 2-2 @WIU, NDSU, ILSU, @USD
Southern Illinois 4-3 2-2 @USD, MSU, YSU, @WIU
Youngstown State 3-4 1-3 ILSU, @INSU, @SIU, MSU
Missouri State 1-6 0-4 @INSU, @SIU, UNI, @YSU
Indiana State 0-7 0-4 @MSU, YSU, WIU, @UNI

For reference, in recent history, I believe only one 8-DI-win MVFC team has been excluded from the playoffs (YSU in 2013, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season, but was tied with 3 other MVFC teams at 5-3 in the conference). In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.

NDSU has reached 7 wins, which means that barring some complete collapse to finish the season, they’re in the playoffs.
USD is still at 6 wins and likely need one more to be solidly in the playoffs. They do have a tough schedule ahead, but should be able to pick up at least one more win.
ILSU, SDSU, and WIU are all at 5-2 and are hoping for at least a 2-2 finish to the season to get their 7 wins. Based on how things look right now, WIU probably has the easiest route there, with a couple of winnable games and a couple of probably “coin flip” games. ILSU and SDSU both have to play NDSU, WIU, one other tough opponent (YSU for ILSU and USD for SDSU), and each other to finish out the season…so, one will pick up a win when they play each other, but it remains to be seen if they can get one more from the other 3.
SIU and UNI are 4-3 and they’ll need to win 3/4 to finish with 7 wins. I could see SIU taking maybe one…two tops…but I don’t think the Salukis will get there. UNI has been very strong the last couple of games. They’d need to beat MSU and INSU and snag one of the games at NDSU or home vs USD to do it. USD is the more likely of the two, but they’ll both be tough games.
YSU is now 3-4 and desparately needs to start winning some games. Lots of close games against really tough teams, but at some point you just gotta win. With 4 games left, they pretty much need to win out to make the playoffs. It can be done, the majority of the rest of their schedule sits at the bottom of the conference standings, but they can’t have any more slip-ups if they want to be playing after Thanksgiving.
MSU and INSU can’t even reach 6 wins this season, so neither of them will be making the playoffs this year.

#9 Youngstown State at #28 Northern Iowa (Family Weekend)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
YSU 0 7 0 7 14
UNI 3 13 3 0 19

Quick Hits:

  • YSU – WR Damoun Patterson had 100 yds and 1 TD receiving
  • YSU – QB Nathan Mays threw for 175 yds and 1 TD but was sacked 8 times
  • YSU – LB Armand Dellovade led the team in tackles with 15
  • UNI – RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 132 yds and 2 TDs
  • UNI – QB Eli Dunne passed for 151 yds, with 2/3 of that (99 yds) going to WR Daurice Fountain
  • UNI – Defense had 31 tackles for loss including 10 sacks. LB Rickey Neal had 3.5 of those sacks and earned the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award.

Northern Iowa has been really stepping up the last couple of weeks with some key players back from being out with injuries. The Panther defense’s 10 sacks were 1 away from tying the school’s single-game record, and if you know I-AA football, you know that UNI has had some seriously good defenses in the past. After a promising start, Youngstown State’s season is in freefall. The Penguins couldn’t get really anything going on offense, especially on the ground, only getting 47 net yards rushing in large part due to losing 63 yards on tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
UNI got ahead early with a FG in the 1st quarter and 2 TDs in the 2nd, while allowing 1 TD, taking a 16-7 lead into halftime. Panthers got another FG in the 3rd and YSU only had another TD in the 4th and would never hold the lead in the 19-14 finish.

UNI is now 4-3 overall, 3-1 in the conference, and will take on 7-0 NDSU next weekend in the Fargodome in what will likely be a seriously good battle.
YSU falls to 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the MVFC, and they head back home to face off with 5-2 ILSU next Saturday.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Penguins by 4
It was: Panthers by 5
Margin right…pick wrong. UNI is a better team than I gave them credit for (especially defensively) and are a much better team than when I saw them live a couple of weeks ago.

#3 South Dakota at #27 Illinois State (Homecoming)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
USD 0 14 0 7 21
ILSU 14 3 7 13 37

Quick Hits:

  • USD – QB Chris Streveler threw for a career-high 440 yds and 2 TDs, but also had his first two INTs of the season
  • USD – TE Aaron Ramsey had 79 receiving yds and a TD, but 3 other Coyote receivers had 50+ yds and 3 others had 40-50 yds
  • USD – DB Andrew Gray led the team with 10 tackles
  • ILSU – QB Jake Kolbe had 236 yds passing, 2 TDs and 1 INT, with 191 yds (80%) going to WR Spencer Schnell who earned the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week award.
  • ILSU – RB James Robinson ran for 193 yds and 2 TDs
  • ILSU – PK Sean Slattery hit FGs from 47 yds, 33 yds, and then 45 yds and finished the game with 13 total points, earning him the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award.

After a couple of losses (one a blowout to SIU), ILSU was looking like their backs were against the wall with the matchup with the undefeated Coyotes. Well, it looks like the Redbirds play from that position pretty well. Their defense held USD to 3-and-outs on the first couple of drives before nabbing Streveler’s first INT of the seasonT he ILSU defense did an exceptional job shutting down USD’s running game. Illinois State put up the games first 14 points, but USD would battle back, tying the game at 14 in the 2nd. ILSU would add a FG to gain a 3-pt lead at halftime. A 3rd quarter TD run would give the Redbirds the lead for good, as they’d use a couple more FGs and hold USD to only one more TD to come away with the 37-21 win.

Illinois State is now 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the conference and will head over to Ohio to take on 3-4 Youngstown State next weekend.
South Dakota heads back home and brings in 4-3 Southern Illinois in what could be a very high-scoring matchup.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Coyotes by 14
It was: Redbirds by 16
Is Illinois State good? They lost to Northern Arizona and got blown out by Southern Illinois, but on this day, they were good…really good. Also on this day, I was wrong…really wrong.

Southern Illinois (3-3, 1-2) at Indiana State (Homecoming)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SIU 17 7 7 14 45
INSU 14 0 3 7 24

Quick Hits:

  • SIU – QB Sam Straub had 352 yards passing and 3 TDs w/ 3 INTs as well as 50 yards rushing
  • SIU – WRs Darrell James and Raphae Leonard had the majority of receiving yards with 154 (and 1 TD) and 104 respectively
  • SIU – S Ryan Neal had 2 INTs that he took back for a total of 70 yards, as well as 3 tackles
  • INSU – WR Bob Pugh caught for 92 yards including a 61-yard TD catch. Pugh also had 59 yards on returns
  • INSU – LB Katrell Moss led the Sycamores with 20 tackles, including 1 for loss
  • INSU – P Thomas Bouldin averaged 50.5 yards on 8 punts including an insane 90-yarder that broke the school and conference record (previous record was 89 yards by WIU’s Mike Scifres in 2000)

The Sycamores started off well, putting up the game’s first TD and at one point having a 14-7 lead in the first quarter. Unfortunatly for Indiana State, it was pretty much all Salukis from there. SIU would get the next 17 points and take a 24-14 lead into halftime. SIU answered an INSU FG with a Saluki TD in the 3rd and had two more TDs in the 4th. INSU did have a 17-yard pick-6 in the 4th, but it was too little too late, falling 45-24 in Terre Haute.

Southern Illinois moves over 500 to 4-3 with a 2-2 MVFC record and will face off with 6-1 South Dakota next week in Vermillion.
Indiana State drops to 0-7 overall, 0-4 in the conference and head down to 1-6 Missouri State to play in what can only be described as the “Battle for the Bottom”…INSU’s best chance at getting a win this season.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Salukis by 12
It was: Salukis by 21
Margin a little larger than I thought, but hey…I got one right (finally).

#15 South Dakota State at Missouri State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SDSU 20 14 14 14 62
MSU 10 17 0 3 30

Quick Hits:

  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion threw for 323 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 59 yards and 1 TD
  • SDSU – TE Dallas Goedert caught 170 yards and a TD on 8 passes and WR/KR Cade Johnson caught for 75 yards and 1 TD on 2 passes and had a 61-yard kick return earning him the MVFC Newcomer of the Week award
  • SDSU – RB Brady Mengarelli ran for 115 yards and 2 TDs
  • SDSU – LB Christian Rozeboom led the team with 18 tackles including 1 for loss
  • MSU – QB Peyton Huslig threw for 189 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, and ran for 123 yards
  • MSU – LB McNeece Egbim had 10 tackles including 2.5 for loss
  • MSU – WR/RS Deion Holliman took a punt back 63 yards for a TD and racked up 150 all-purpose yards

I’m not really going to get into the details of the scoring…SDSU did a lot of it…9 TDs worth. MSU tried to stay with them, but too many times had to answer a TD with a FG. The Bears were only down 34-27 at halftime, but the Jackrabbits really pulled away in the second half with 4 TDs vs MSU’s single FG to take the 32-point win.

South Dakota State is now 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the MVFC and will have another trip south to take on 5-2 Western Illinois next weekend.
Missouri State drops to 1-6 overall, 0-4 in the conference and they will stay home, welcoming the 0-7 Sycamores on Saturday.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 20
It was: Jackrabbits by 32
SDSU’s offense is clicking at a slightly higher rate than I had anticipated. I figured it’d be a high scoring game though, and with 61 total points at halftime, higher than the final point totals for 3/4 of the other conference games, it was. I count that as a win for me.

#7 Western Illinois at #2 North Dakota State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
WIU 3 3 0 0 12
NDSU 3 7 14 0 24

Quick Hits:

  • WIU – WR Jaelon Acklin caught 115 yards on 6 receptions
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor had 17 tackles, 1 for loss, and became the 4th Leatherneck to ever reach 400+ career tackles
  • WIU – LB Quentin Moon had 9 tackles, 1 for loss, and an INT taken 43 yards back for a TD
  • WIU – PK Nathan Erickson made his first collegiate FG attempt from 52 yards late in the 2nd quarter
  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 221 yards and 1 TD (w/ his first 2 INTs of the season) and ran for 61 yards and 2 TDs
  • NDSU – WR RJ Urzendowski caught 4 passes for 100 yards and 1 TD
  • NDSU – Safeties Robbie Grimsley and James Hendricks and DE Caleb Butler each had 5 tackles, with Butler having 2 for loss incluing 1 sack, and DT Cole Karcz had 1.5 sacks for 14 yards
  • NDSU – Bison Defense held Western to only 12 points (had been averaging 41.8) and only 31 rushing yards

WIU started off well, holding NDSU to a FG in the first quarter, while picking up a FG and INT->TD themselves. In the 2nd, a WIU defender fell down which left NDSU’s Urzendowski wide open for a 58-yard TD pass. WIU tacked on 3 with a 52-yard FG, which gave WIU a 2-pt lead at halftime. Second half though, the NDSU defense really picked up and shut down WIU’s offense. There were a couple of times when Western was able to get close, but ultimately was held scoreless, while NDSU QB Easton Stick used some strong runs up the middle to pick up two rushing TDs in the 3rd, resulting in a 12-point Bison win.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 10
It was: Bison by 12
As much as I was hoping to be wrong on this pick, I was pretty much spot-on. My Leathernecks did much better than their last trip to the Fargodome (a 59-7 blowout), but it’s still a tick in the loss column for them. I did get the pick right though…so I guess that’s something.

I was 34-11 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 3-2 in my picks which puts me at 37-13 for the season so far.

Four games left in the regular season for the MVFC teams. Up next week are a slate of games where nearly all will have a significant impact on playoff spots. Check back later this week for my full preview of all of the Week 9 games in the MVFC.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 8 Results

Multiple upsets gave the AGS rankings quite the shake-up in week 8. Despite that the top 2 remained the same as they have been in every ranking so far this year with James Madison and North Dakota State coming in at #1 and #2, respectively. Jacksonville State moved up to their highest ranking of the year coming in at #3. Central Arkansas made their first appearance in the top 5 this year next at #4 and South Dakota dropped two spots to #5 following their loss to Illinois State.

Among the biggest risers of the week was Samford who moved up 7 spots to #10 following their win over previously top 5 ranked Wofford. Delaware also continued their climb rising 7 spots to #13 following their double OT victory over Richmond. Southern Utah shot up 9 spots to #16 after their convincing win over Eastern Washington. Illinois State re-emerged in the top 25 after a one week absence coming in at #20 following their win over previously 3rd ranked South Dakota. Northern Iowa also returned to the top 25 coming in at #22 after their 2nd straight win over a top 25 opponent.

Youngstown State took the biggest tumble of the week dropping 14 spots to #23 following their loss to Northern Iowa which was their 3rd loss in a row. Eastern Washington also dropped 9 spots to #17 following their aforementioned loss to Southern Utah. Richmond was another team to take a big hit this week as they took a 12 spot tumble following their loss to Delaware. Even though New Hampshire beat Towson and Montana was on bye both teams dropped out of the top 25.

The MVFC led the way placing 7 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the CAA with 6, the Big Sky with 4, and the SOCON and Southland who each placed 3 teams into the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1920 72
2 North Dakota State Bison 1851 5
3 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1749
4 Central Arkansas Bears 1638
5 South Dakota Coyotes 1452
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1437
7 Elon Phoenix 1310
8 Western Illinois Leathernecks 1304
9 Wofford Terriers 1237
10 Samford Bulldogs 1096
11 Western Carolina Catamounts 922
12 North Carolina A&T Aggies 868
13 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 865
14T Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 863
14T South Dakota State Jackrabbits 863
16 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 645
17 Eastern Washington Eagles 636
18 Villanova Wildcats 617
19 Stony Brook Seawolves 569
20 Illinois State Redbirds 455
21 McNeese State Cowboys 429
22 Northern Iowa Panthers 415
23 Youngstown State Penguins 362
24 Richmond Spiders 347
25 Weber State Wildcats 340
ORV:
26 Montana Grizzlies 322
27 New Hampshire Wildcats 259
28 Monmouth Hawks 69
29 Grambling State Tigers 53
30 Furman Paladins 48
31 Nicholls State Colonels 22
32 Southern Illinois Salukis 15
33 Columbia Lions 14
34T Austin Peay Governors 8
34T Sacramento State Hornets 8
36 North Carolina Central Eagles 6
37 Maine Black Bears 4
38T Kennessaw State Owls 3
38T Southeastern Louisiana Lions 3
40 The Citadel Bulldogs 1

Most Significant Win: Samford Bulldogs
Most Significant Loss: Youngstown State Penguins

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197794-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-8-10-23-2017