MVFC – Week 10 Preview

MVFC LogoNovember…the time when the FCS regular season winds down to a close and for all but 24 teams, coaches and players focus on the off-season…recruiting, scheduling, spending quality time in the weight room. The MVFC lately has been at the level where fully half the teams have a decent shot at postseason football, but even so, we already know that Indiana State, Missouri State, and most likely Youngstown State are out of the playoff picture. North Dakota State (as expected) and South Dakota (less expected) have both already reached 7+ wins…the “magic number” that will get nearly any MVFC team into the bracket. For everyone else, there’s still work to do.

This weekend’s matchups have been played an average of 72 times (with two of the 5 series being played 100 or more times as of this Saturday. In all instances, teams are playing either the closest (in the case of NDSU, YSU, WIU, and MSU) or second closest (everyone else) MVFC teams to their locations. All matchups have the potential to be close and exciting games. I’m not saying there won’t be any blowouts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearly all the games are decided by less than 10 points, so this could very well be one of the most exciting weekends of the year for MVFC football.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings. Also, now that all MVFC teams have played 5 conference games, I am switching over my reference stats that I use to conference-only numbers. It should be much more similar competition and you won’t have games against teams like Mississippi Valley State or Drake bumping the stats for one team or another. So, again…all stats listed are only in MVFC play from here on out (unless otherwise stated).

So, here are the games this week:
12:00 PM – #16 Western Illinois (5-3, 2-3 MVFC) at #13 Illinois State (6-2, 4-1 MVFC)
12:00 PM – Youngstown State (3-5, 1-4 MVFC) at Indiana State (0-8, 0-5 MVFC)
1:00 PM – Missouri State (2-6, 1-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (4-4, 2-3 MVFC)
1:00 PM – #5 South Dakota (7-1, 4-1 MVFC) at #24 Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #2 North Dakota State (8-0, 5-0 MVFC) at #9 South Dakota State (6-2, 3-2 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

#16 Western Illinois at #13 Illinois State

Last Week:

  • Western Illinois lost to South Dakota Sate, 52-24
  • Illinois State won at Youngstown State, 35-0

History: This will be the 100th meeting between the Leathernecks and Redbirds going back to 1904, with WIU holding the series lead 50-46-3. The two teams have played each other every year back to 1923 except 1973 when there was an odd schedule due to changes in conference/division affiliation, and played each other twice in 2015 (regular season and playoffs). The Redbirds have won the last 7 meetings between the teams, with last year’s matchup being a 31-26 where ISU got ahead early and stayed just enough ahead to win.

Distance: 104 miles, just under a 2-hour drive straight across central Illinois.

Western Illinois is coming off a 28-point loss to South Dakota State last weekend and are looking to put together at least two more wins out of their final three games to get into the playoffs. The Leathernecks still have a passing offense in the top half of the conference, averaging 266 ypg through the air, led primarily by WR Jaelon Acklin who has 152.2 ypg and 6 TDs against MVFC teams. Overall, Acklin is already over 1000 yards receiving, while the #2 receiver in the conference is over 300 yards behind, and is on target to demolish (current Dallas Cowboys Practice Squad WR) Lance Lenior Jr.’s school record for yards in a season as well as a few other season records. Defensively, they’ve been weak against the pass, giving up 294.2 ypg (9th in the conference), but is sitting in the middle in rushing defense, allowing 162.8 ypg. LB Brett Taylor leads conference (and the FCS) in tackles this season with 17.6 per game in MVFC play and 14.8 per game overall. Taylor’s 118 total tackles are 34 more than the #2 tackler in the conference currently. Also handling front-line duties for the Leathernecks is DL Khalen Saunders, who is 3rd in the conference in sacks, 8th in tackles for loss and tied for 1st in forced fumbles. You also have DBs Justin Fitzpatrick and Tyrin Holloway who are 4th and 7th in the conference in interceptions respectively.

Illinois State has spent the last two weeks recovering from losses to Northern Arizona and SIU with a 16-point win over previously unbeaten USD and a 35-point shutout of defending FCS championship runner-up Youngstown State. Of their remaining three games, this will likely be their easiest to pick up the 1 win needed to get them to 7 overall wins and likely into the playoffs. The Redbirds strength this season is their defense…second only to NDSU in scoring (16.9 ppg allowed), yardage (293.4 ypg allowed), and rushing defense (77.3 ypg allowed). Their pass defense is a little weaker, but still pretty good at 4th in the conference allowing 216.1 ypg. Their top tackler is LB Tyree Horton with 53 tackles and 3.5 sacks against MVFC foes. DL Dalton Keene is #2 in the conference in sacks and #3 for both tackles for loss and fumbles recovered. Offensively, ISU is sitting mostly in the middle of the conference, putting up 30.3 ppg and 425.5 ypg. Their forte is the run game, where RB James Robinson is the #2 back in the conference at 85.1 ypg and 9 TDs, and their second back is still only 7th in the conference with 62 ypg and 4 TDs. WR Spencer Schnell is a solid receiver, coming in at 5th in the conference with 80.1 ypg and 4 TDs including a huge performance if 191 yards and 2 TDs against South Dakota two weeks ago.

Personally, I think this game will really come down to who steps up more between the ISU run game and WIU’s run defense. Western has not allowed a 100+ yard rusher all season…ISU had two in last week’s game against YSU, so something has to give there. Another factor could be the weather…currently projected to be about 60 degrees and rainy at game time. This could affect WIU’s passing game somewhat, although I’ve heard that rain actually makes it harder to defend passing teams because the receivers know where they’re going…defenders do not, and have a higher likelihood of slipping or losing their footing. Either way, weather could be a factor. I think that overall, the two teams are pretty evenly matched, so I’ve gotta go with my Leathernecks here. Thanks to a generous ISU season ticket holder who is unable to attend the game, I will be there…surrounded by ISU fans, but I’ll be there. I think the Leathernecks will make the rainy day a little more miserable with a 6 point win over the Redbirds.

Youngstown State at Indiana State

Last Week:

  • Youngstown State lost to Illinois State, 35-0
  • Indiana State lost to Missouri State, 59-20

History: The Penguins and Sycamores have played 26 times starting in 1988. YSU holds the series lead 21-5. Last year’s matchup was a 13-10 Youngstown State Homecoming victory.

Distance: This is the one “far” game of the week, being ~425 miles apart or a 6 1/5 hour drive.

Youngstown State, last year’s national championship runners-up, preseason poll “darling” and a team that started off the season 3-1 with an OT loss to FBS Pitt as their only blemish has seen their season essentially go right down the drain, losing their last four straight including being shut out by Illinois State last weekend. Despite the fact that they stand a good chance of winning their last three games, they are effectively out of the playoff picture and are now playing for pride. On the offensive side of the ball, they have a really good running game…or more accurately, they have one really good RB, Tevin McCaster, who is averaging 82 ypg (3rd in the MVFC) and has 9 TDs in MVFC games. Beyond that, however, they have very little going offensively since starting QB Hunter Wells was injured early in the conference portion of the season. When they’re defending, they are pretty solid at stopping teams, allowing 19.5 ppg and 316.6 ypg against the MVFC, with their specific strength being the pass defense, where they are #2 in the conference. FS Jalyn Powell and S Kyle Hegedus are 7th and 8th in the conference in tackles with 63 and 60 respectively.

Indiana State is just full-on winless this year. They’ve been playing for pride for weeks already and despite having a couple of close games early in the season OOC, the closest they’ve been to a conference win is losing by only 11 to Illinois State. They are at the bottom of the conference rankings in both offensive scoring (16.4 ppg) and defensive scoring (42.8 ppg allowed). Pretty much the only aspect where they aren’t last or second-to-last in the conference is in passing offense, where they have WR Bob Pugh who’s catching 71 ypg and 3 TDs in their MVFC games and WR Jacquet McClendon who has 57.4 ypg and 3 TDs as well. RB LeMonte Booker has been doing fairly well considering all the struggles that the team has had, with a 78 ypg rushing average and 4 TDs. On the other side of the ball, LB Jonas Griffith is sitting at 4th in the conference for tackles with 74 and 3 sacks and CB Rondell Green is 2nd in the conference in passes defended with 13…10 breakups and 3 INTs. Really though, outside of a few players who are doing well, it just doesn’t look to be a good season for the Sycamores at all.

So, we get to see just how far YSU has fallen from their early season success. I know they’re down, but I just can’t imagine that they’ve dropped so much that they’ll lose to Indiana State (sorry Sycamore fans). I think we’ll see the Penguins essentially just hand off to McCaster nearly every play and do well enough to come away with a win. He’s good enough for a couple of TDs himself usually, so I think they’ll probably take the victory by about 14.

Missouri State (2-6, 1-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois

Last Week:

  • Missouri State beat Indiana State, 59-20
  • Southern Illinois lost at South Dakota, 42-0

History: The Bears and Salukis have played each other 84 times starting in 1909, with MSU holding a 40-36-8 series lead. Last year’s meeting was a 30-22 SIU victory in Springfield, MO, and SIU has won 8 out of the last 10 meetings.

Distance: Springfield, MO and Carbondale, IL are slightly more than 300 miles away from each other…just under a 5 hour drive, although that’s mostly because there’s no good “direct” route between them (“as the crow flies”, they’re only 225 miles apart).

Missouri State picked up their first conference win of the season last weekend when they chopped down the Sycamores. They have shown the ability to put up quite a few points on teams, averaging 27.8 ppg against fellow conference teams. The strength of their offense is their running game, which is averaging over 212 ypg. QB Peyton Huslig is actually the second most productive runner in the conference, with 92 ypg and 2 TDs, although he’s only getting 123 ypg and 3 TDs through the air. When Huslig does air it out, it’s mostly to WR Malik Earl, who has just under 70 ypg in MVFC matchups. Defense is where the Bears struggle and is primarily the reason they haven’t done well this season. They are allowing just over 40 ppg and 473 ppg, both second-to-last in the conference. DL Colby Isbell is the top talent on that side of the MSU team, ranking 4th in the conference in sacks with 3 for 21 yards and has 6 tackles for loss, and is the conference leader in forced fumbles with 3 in 5 MVFC games. WR/RS Deion Holliman is the top dog…er…bear…in the MVFC for returns, leading in both kick returns (23.4 yards per) and punt returns (16.4 yards per).

Southern Illinois was in a similar boat as Missouri State…decent offense (3rd in the conference in ypg with 461) although relying primarily on their passing attack (2nd in the conference with 286 ypg) and led by the 4th best passing QB in the conference, Sam Straub, who had a 239.8 ypg average with 10 TDs. That was…until early in last week’s game with Straub was sidelined for the rest of the season with a broken bone in his throwing hand. Now they have to rely on a Sophomore QB (Tanner Hearn) who hasn’t started a game and has, in four games played in, thrown 19 completions for 276 yards, 1 TD and 5 INTS. Most of those yards, completions, and 4 of the INTs came last weekend against USD when he had to fill in for the injured Straub early in the game. Like Missouri State, the SIU defense isn’t much to write home about, giving up just under 30 ppg and 383.2 ypg against the MVFC, although they do have a couple of decent DBs with S Ryan Neal having the 6th most tackles in the conference with 42 and at #4 in INTs with 2 taken back for a total of 70 yards, as well as CB Craig James at #4 for passes defended with 7 (1 INT). Because of this, they are a bit stronger against the pass than the run. They also have one of the best punters in the conference, Lane Reazin, who is averaging 43.1 yards per punt.

If you’d asked me prior to last Saturday, who would win this game, I would have said that SIU has the better offense and a QB who can make plays happen, as well as a slightly better defense, so the Salukis would likely take the win. However, they are a much different team without Straub, and I think they’ll end up being much less effective throwing the ball. MSU’s strength is the run game, which SIU’s defense is weak against, so I think that Missouri State will actually pull out a win this time by about 10 points.

#5 South Dakota at #24 Northern Iowa

Last Week:

  • South Dakota beat Southern Illinois, 42-0
  • Northern Iowa lost at North Dakota State, 30-14

History: The Coyotes and Panthers have faced off 47 times in their teams histories, with Northern Iowa holding a 19-27-1 series lead. Their first meeting was back in 1899 and resulted in a 0-0 tie. UNI has won 7 out of the last 10 meetings and last year’s matchup was a 28-25 South Dakota win at the DakotaDome.

Distance: UNI and USD are ~254 miles apart, which is about a 4 hour drive straight west across Iowa on US 20, then up I-29 a bit from Sioux City to Vermillion.

Northern Iowa’s season has been rather up and down so far, going 1-2 in OOC (with the win being in OT), then a win vs SIU and loss to WIU before starting to turn things around with wins over SDSU and YSU. They’ve definitely been a much better team the last few weeks, but a loss last weekend at the Fargodome means that UNI probably needs to win out to make the playoffs. The Panther offense and defense are averaging nearly the same numbers in terms of points scored/allowed, with 24.8 ppg for the offense and 23.4 ppg allowed for the defense. In MVFC games, they’re pretty much in the lower-middle of the standings. RB Marcus Weymiller has reinvigorated what was a stagnant UNI offense, putting up 123.6 ypg and 4 TDs in the three conference games he has played in, and WR Daurice Fountain is the #5 receiver in the conference, averaging 85 ypg w/ 4 TDs. The Panther run defense is the strongest aspect of that side of the ballgame, currently second in MVFC games allowing only 112.6 ypg and led by the #3 tackler (47 tackles) in the conference, LB Jared Farley. LB Ricky Neal is 1st in the conference in both sacks (6.5) and tackles for loss (9.5).

South Dakota started off the season on a hot streak, winning their first 6 straight games before being taken down by Illinois State, but then following it up with a 42-point shutout of SIU last weekend. At 7 wins, they’re likely already in the playoffs, but they have three very tough games to finish the season (@UNI, @NDSU, vs SDSU) and make a push for a good playoff seed. They also have to deal with the added distraction of two players (one who was one of the team’s top tacklers) being suspended from the team due to charges of alleged sexual assault. USD is currently tied with SDSU for having the #1 scoring offense in the conference, putting up 37.6 ppg, and they also have a very good defense, only allowing 20.8 ppg in the MVFC. QB Chris Streveler, despite being knocked out of the game early last week against SIU and only netting 12 passing yards, is still the top passing QB in the conference, averaging 295.4 ypg through the air w/ 12 TDs and only 2 INTs. WRs Shamar Jackson and Brandt Van Roekel are his primary targets, catching for 72.4 ypg + 1 TD and 67 ygp + 4 TDs respectively. DB Andrew Gray leads the Coyotes in tackles with 39 in their 5 MVFC games with 1 sack, and Andrew’s twin brother, LB Alex Gray, is #4 in the conference in tackles for loss with 6.5.

This one is really tricky to predict, I think. UNI is a lot better now than they were in the first half of the season, while USD has shown some signs of weakness and might come into the game a little distracted. Also, UNI has their backs against the wall really, needing to win to stay in the playoff picture. If Streveler is 100%, then he might have a great game, but if he’s less than that, and Farley and Neal are able to get a lot of pressure on him and get him a bit more banged up, then USD could really struggle offensively. My best guess is that UNI is able to make things a bit rough for Streveler and since it’s at the UNI-Dome, they’re able to come away with a win…by a FG.

#2 North Dakota State at #9 South Dakota State

Last Week:

  • North Dakota State beat Northern Iowa, 30-14
  • South Dakota State won at Western Illinois, 52-24

History: The Bison and Jackrabbits have played each other 106 times starting in 1903 with NDSU holding a 60-41-5 series lead. NDSU has also won 9 out of the last 10 meetings…which actually only takes you back 7 years, due to the two teams playing each other three times in the playoffs in that span. The only SDSU win was a 19-17 victory at the Fargodome during the regular season last year, which NDSU was able to get revenge for roughly 2 months later, beating SDSU 36-10 at the Fargodome in last year’s FCS Playoff Quarterfinals round.

Distance: NDSU and SDSU are a quick 190 mile trip up (or down) I-29, which (according to Google Maps) will take you a bit over 2 1/2 hours to drive.

North Dakota State has already punched their ticket to the playoffs, winning their first 8 straight games. The last few games are probably going to be some of their toughest, though, having to play @SDSU, vs USD, and @ILSU. They’re good enough to win all of the games, but it wouldn’t entirely surprise me to see them drop one of them at some point. The Bison have the best defense in the conference (and by most estimations…in the entire FCS). In MVFC matchups, they’re only allowing 12.2 ppg, are the only MVFC team allowing under 100 ypg on the ground (94), and the only MVFC team allowing under 350 ypg…giving up a stingy 237 ypg. They have playmakers at all positions on the defensive side of the ball…and honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one or two players from each “section” (DL, LB, DB) end up playing in the NFL in the next few years. If they have a weakness on defense, it’s against the pass, although it’s not really that big of a weakness compared to teams like INSU or WIU. The Bison also have the top rushing offense in the conference, rolling out with 218 ypg on the ground primarily due to RBs Bruce Anderson (79 ypg) and Lance Dunn (58 ypg) and QB Easton Stick who is also a running threat at 61.4 ypg. The passing game isn’t quite as strong, only putting up 178 ypg in the MVFC, but it obviously has done enough for them to keep them from losing a game.

South Dakota State is more in the “still work to do” category with conference losses to YSU and UNI holding them back. One more win should get them in, although they also have a tough slate of games ahead of them with Illinois State and South Dakota up following this weekend’s game against NDSU. It does seem like their offense has started to kick back into gear after something of a slump in the first part of conference season, having put up an average of 57 points over their last two games (both away games). They have the second best yardage offense in the MVFC behind South Dakota led by the #2 passing QB, Taryn Christion and with two targets that will likely be on NFL rosters next year, WR Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Goedert. Wieneke holds many of the school and conference receiving records, but Goedert is actually having the better season this year, ranking second in the MVFC in receiving with 98 ypg and 2 TDs. Wieneke is very good at coming down with catches in the end zone though, currently tied for #1 in the conference for receiving TDs with 6 against MVFC opponents. The Jackrabbit defense has had some trouble stopping the run, allowing 195 ypg on the ground, but is pretty good against the pass (170 ypg). LB Christian Rozeboom is second in the conference in tackles, with 60 in their 5 conference games.

Another tough one to predict. NDSU is favored, but as is often the case with big rivalry games, you can kinda throw the predictions out the window. Both teams are going to fight tooth-and-nail for every yard in this game and won’t give up until someone is walking off the field holding a big rock (Dakota Marker Trophy). I think that you’ll see SDSU get some decent yardage through the air, but will struggle getting anything going on the ground. NDSU will have a solid day running the ball, but maybe not do quite as well when Stick is trying to throw the ball. My guess is that at some point in the 3rd quarter, NDSU will pull ahead by about a TD and hold the lead until the end; so I’m thinking, Bison by 7.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1031 – WEEK 10 PREVIEW

In the week 10 preview show Lance gets Kris into some discussion on some of the lesser looked upon conferences that will be looking for their spot in the playoffs.  The Patriot, Big South, NEC, & Pioneer all get a glance this week and as in most conference races they will come down to thin margins in the majority of the races.

Next thing up is the discussion on the big games upcoming this weekend.  Here is a rundown of coverage for games.

Weber State @ Eastern Washington

North Dakota State @ South Dakota State

Western Illinois @ Illinois State

Kennesaw State @ Montana State

South Dakota @ Northern Iowa

Lance throws a brief shout out to a couple of CAA games that did not make the cut but are still worthy of a look if you can catch them.  This week you’ll have to listen at this link:

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Patriot League: Week 9 Review and Power Rankings

As the final month of the regular season is set to begin there’s no question who the best team in the league is. Colgate is dominating their competition while everyone else is struggling to find some semblance of consistency. Bucknell was the latest victim to feel the Raider’s wrath. If the league wants to send the best representative to playoffs they need Colgate to get home help. Based on how things have played out to this point they’re likely going to the gift they need.

In other week 9 action Fordham (against Lehigh) and Holy Cross (Georgetown) both ended 5 game losing streaks. The Mountain Hawk’s defense and the Hoya’s offense once against greatly contributed to each team’s demise.

Colgate 40 Bucknell 3

Colgate (5-4, 3-1) used a dominating first half to slam the door on Bucknell’s Patriot League title hopes while keeping their own alive. The Raiders have won their last 3 league games by an average score of 41-7 since their crushing loss to Lehigh in early October. Colgate Head Coach Dan Hunt easily has his team playing the best football in the league right now. That combined with Lehigh’s loss to Fordham over the weekend has really opened the door for Colgate. With games left against Lafayette and Georgetown the Raiders are in prime position to grab at least a share of the league title and are still in the mix for the automatic playoff bid.

Bucknell (4-4, 1-2) still has quite a bit to play for even though the league title is almost certainly out of the question. With games remaining against Lehigh, Fordham and Georgetown the Bison have 3 golden opportunities to notch wins and finish the 2017 season with a really solid 7-4 record. In order for Bucknell to make that happen the offense must improve, and improve dramatically. Not only has the offensive line struggled all season but now there seems to be some debate as to who the quarterback will be moving forward after the Colgate loss. Veteran Matt Muh (11-23 133 yards) replaced the bumbling John Chiarolanzio (5-10 37 yards 2 INTs) and could get the start against Lehigh. Muh saw significant time in 2016 in relief of then starter R.J. Nitti.

One quarterback in the Patriot League that is not struggling is Colgate’s Grant Breneman. The freshman signal caller is making a strong push for 1st Team All-Patriot League Honors with his play in recent weeks. Breneman (13-18 177 yards 3 TDs 1 INT, 17 rushes 76 yards 1 TD) led the Raiders on a 7 play, 75 yard TD (missed XP) drive on their first possession of the game. Colgate RB James Holland (18 carries 104 yards 1 TD) capped the drive with a 13 yard scamper into the endzone. Bucknell was able to cut the Colgate lead to 3 points late in the 1st quarter on John Burdick’s 28 yard chip-shot field goal. The Raiders responded with a grinding 10 play 75 yard drive that ended with a Breneman 12 yard TD pass to Thomas Ives. On Bucknell’s ensuing possession Chiarolanzio threw a pick on the first play from scrimmage which set the Raiders offense up in prime territory. For the second straight drive Breneman and Ives (4 rec 82 yards 2 TDs) made the Bison pay. This time the two hooked up for a 20 yard TD pass to stretch the Raider lead to 20-3. Brenaman would account for two more 2nd quarter touchdowns to give Colgate a commanding 33-3 halftime lead.

Up Next: Bucknell returns to the friendly confines of Christy Mathewson Stadium to host Lehigh on Homecoming. Colgate heads into their bye week on roll. The Raiders host Lafayette on November 11th.

Fordham 45 Lehigh 35

Fordham (3-5, 1-2) won the turnover battle 4-0 and racked up 544 total yards in a 10 point win over Lehigh. The Rams hadn’t scored more than 12 points in their 3 previous games but were able to capitalize on the Mountain Hawk’s horrific defense to break out of their slump. Leading Fordham’s charge was 4th string running back D’Angelo Palladino who rushed for an eye popping 297 yards and 3 TDs. Palladino’s 48 yard TD dash up the middle with 2:24 left in the 4th quarter clinched the game for Fordham. Despite giving up yards in bunches, the Ram defense made several critical plays in key situations. They forced two huge turnovers inside their own 10 yard line which proved to be the difference in the game. Chase Edmonds missed the game due his nagging ankle injury and remains 8 yards shy of the All-Time Patriot League rushing record.

Between turnovers and a terrible defense Lehigh (2-6, 2-1) greatly contributed to their own demise. Coming off the bye week Coach Coen seemed optimistic about the “D’s” ability to improve for the stretch run of the season. As it turned out Palladino was just the latest unheralded skill position player to torch the Mountain Hawk defense. His outburst and Mayes questionable decision making really hurt Lehigh’s chances to remain undefeated in league play. The only real positive for Lehigh in the loss was Dom Bragalone. The junior running back had the best game (27 carries 218 yards 1 TD, 6 rec 79 yards 1 TD) of well decorated career. Despite being guaranteed of a losing record in regular season, Lehigh still controls their own destiny in the Patriot League race. However, with a defense THIS bad and Mayes propensity to make bad decisions it’s hard imagine the Brown & White finishing with 3 straight wins.

As has been the case all season, it did not take long for Lehigh to find itself in a hole. Fordham opened the game with a 4 play, 66 yard TD drive to take an early 7-0 lead. Kevin Anderson (17-26 244 yards 3 TDs) connected with Noah Nix (6 rec 75 yards 1 TD) for a 15 yard TD to finish off the possession. It would take Lehigh 45 seconds to tie it up. Brad Mayes (20-39 3 TDs, 2 INTs) hit a streaking Jorge Portorreal for a 56 yard TD to even the score. The two teams would trade scores until the late in the 3rd quarter. That’s when Anderson hit Isaiah Searight (8 rec 139 yards 2 TDs) from 6 yards out for a TD to give the Rams a 28-21 lead. On the first play of Lehigh’s ensuing possession Mayes was intercepted by Taylor Ellis which led to a 29 yard Andrew Melvis FG and 31-21 lead. Each team would score two 4th touchdowns and the final margin remained at 10 points.

Lehigh TE Drew Paulsen was taken off the field in an ambulance late in the 4th quarter and was immediately taken to a local New York City hospital. After evaluation it was determined Paulsen suffered a severe concussion. His status for the rest of the season remains in question.

Up Next: Fordham welcomes Holy Cross to the Bronx as the Rams try to keep the positive mojo rolling. Lehigh heads to Central Pennsylvania to tangle with Bucknell.

Holy Cross 24 Georgetown 10

Holy Cross (3-6, 2-2) used a strong defensive effort to score a 14 point win over Georgetown. The victory was Brian Rock’s first as interim head coach and halted the Crusaders 5 game losing streak that dated back to September 16th. Holy Cross defense limited the Hoyas to zero yards rushing and 181 total yards in the “W”. While Georgetown offense has had serious issues all season, Rock has to be happy to see his “D” really put the clamps on after struggling mightily the three previous weeks. Peter Pujals, who was coming off of two straight poor outings himself, also bounced back with a very effective performance (25-38 257 yards).

Georgetown (1-7, 0-3) has now lost 12 straight Patriot League games dating back to a 17-9 win over Bucknell on October 24th 2015. The Hoyas offense continues to spin its wheels, especially the rushing attack (121st in FCS, 48 ypg). If the Hoyas can’t figure out their offensive woes the conference losing streak has the potential to carry into next season. The one saving grace for Georgetown is the fact that offensively challenged Bucknell and Lafayette are coming up. So on paper there’s two chances to win a low scoring scrum.

Against Holy Cross, the Hoyas did jump out to the lead in the 1st quarter. Brad Hurst’s short 24 yard field goal give Georgetown a 3-0 lead with 3:02 remaining in the opening quarter. Unfortunately for the Hoyas the 2nd quarter came. Gabe Guild’s 1 yard TD plunge with 12:15 left before half gave the Crusaders a 7-3 lead. Jackson McLarty then tacked on two field goals (29 & 31 yards) to give Holy Cross a 13-3 half time lead. Both defenses dominated the majority of the 3rdquarter. The only scoring came on Gunther Johnson’s 14 yard touchdown pass to Tommy Jessen with 12 seconds left in the quarter. The TD made the score 13-10 Holy Cross. That would be the closest the Hoys got the rest of the game. McLarty added a 3rd field goal and then Pujals tacked on a 1 yard TD (2pt try good) with 6:24 left in regulation to extend the Crusader lead to 14 points. The Hoyas final two possessions on offense would end on downs.

Up Next: Holy Cross heads to the Big Apple to take on Fordham. The Crusaders will be looking to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss to Fordham at Yankee Stadium. Georgetown returns home to face Lafayette. The Hoyas trounced the Leopards 38-7 the last time the two met in D.C.

Power Rankings

  1. Colgate – The Raiders are steamrolling teams right now. There’s no question the best football in the Patriot League is being played in Hamilton, NY.
  2. Bucknell – The Bison, like Holy Cross and Fordham, took it on the chin against Colgate. Still, the Bison have a great chance to win out and finish 7-4.
  3. Lafayette – If the Leopards win out they will earn at least a share of the Patriot League title. Hopefully they utilized the bye to work on the defense.
  4. Fordham – Fordham played their best game of the year against Lehigh. The weapons are still there for the Rams to win out.
  5. Lehigh – The defense is a complete disaster and the offense continues to make crucial mistakes. Yet, if they win out they’re headed to the FCS Playoffs. Odds say they don’t and the season ends in bitter disappointment.
  6. Holy Cross – They got a much needed win over Georgetown. Now the Crusaders face a much bigger challenge, Fordham in the Bronx.
  7. Georgetown – If you can’t score you can’t win. That’s the predicament Coach Sgarlatta finds his team in as November dawns. Will they break their 12 game conference streak this season?

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1031 – WEEK 9 REVIEW

Lance & Kris get the podcast started by discussion how very confounding some teams from each conferee can be in trying to judge who they really are and exactly where they belong in the poll.

Next they go over the AGS Poll for this week.

Then it’s on to the week 9 review of action around the top games in FCS last week.

Central Arkansas 47 McNeese State 17

Elon 19 Villanova 14

Stony Brook 27 Richmond 24

South Dakota State 52 Western Illinois 24

Weber State 41 Montana 27

Furman 28 Western Carolina 6

North Dakota State 30 Northern Iowa 14

Monmouth 23 Charleston Southern 20

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Big Sky Round Up Week 9

If you look at the playoff scenario for the Big Sky Conference at this point in the season you can see there’s a clear mess at the top. The auto-bid right now appears to belong to Northern Arizona with a perfect conference record. Right behind them with one conference loss is Southern Utah, Weber State, and Eastern Washington. Also in the playoff hunt are Montana, Montana State, with a very outside shot to Sacramento State.

Right now there are four ranked Big Sky team, Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, Southern Utah, and Weber State. Montana fell out of the rankings with their loss at Weber State this past weekend. With a 24 team playoff field typically at least three Big Sky teams have gotten in, with four a possibility. With the teams above having a possibility of playoffs, which ones make it? The next two weeks should clear up a lot of questions.

Getting things started in the Big Sky this week was Montana taking a 54 minute flight from Missoula to Ogden to take on Weber State. Weber State jumped out to a commanding 34-6 lead at the half thanks to several Montana turnovers and miscues. The Wildcats jumped on those early and capitalized. Montana was without starting defensive back Justin Strong, and lost two defensive starters in the first quarter to targeting penalties. Weber capitalized with four straight touchdowns. Montana temporarily stopped the bleeding with a Gresch Jensen touchdown run before the half. Montana fought back in the second half, getting within 14, however a Jensen interception returned for a touchdown by Jordan Preator sealed the deal for the Wildcats. Montana will host Northern Arizona next week while Weber State will be on the road at Eastern Washington.

Southern Utah looked to continue their assault on the Big Sky Conference with a game in Greeley this weekend. The Thunderbirds have already taken down Weber State and Eastern Washington, and Northern Colorado was going to be their next victim. Southern Utah used a strong rushing attack from James Felila (126 yards) and a fine passing attack from Patrick Tyler to take down the Battlin’ Bears 27-14. UNCs Conor Regen, in relief of injured quarterback Jacob Knipp, threw for 392 yards and a score but couldn’t get the Bears into the game. Tyler started off the scoring on a quarterback keeper of 31 yards and the T-Birds never had to look back. Cameron Chambers iced the game with a 13 yard pass from Tyler to end it. Southern Utah will host North Dakota, while Northern Colorado will be at Sacramento State.

Idaho State was looking to keep their name near the top of the Big Sky standings in their trip to Bozeman this weekend. However, the Bobcats had other plans for the visiting Bengals. Bobcat quarterback Chris Murray turned in one of his finer passing efforts of his young career by throwing for 231 yards and two scores. He added 67 yards rushing and a score to aid his effort. The Bobcats owned the first quarter with a pair of touchdowns from Mitchell Herbert and Troy Anderson, but the Bengals weren’t done. Michael Dean and James Madison had touchdowns of their own to knot it at the half. Mac Bignell sealed the game for Montana State by intercepting Tanner Gueller and retuning it for an 18 yard touchdown. Montana Stae will host Kennesaw State while Idaho State will host UC-Davis.

In the Big Sky pillow fight of the week North Dakota made the trip across the Big Sky to take on Portland State. Portland State jumped out to a quick 14 point lead in the first quarter. After that North Dakota ripped off 34 straight points thanks to a combination of John Santiago and Reid Taubenheim. While up 34-14 Portland State attempted to come back, Davis Alexander punched in an 8 yard touchdown. However, North Dakota’s Brady Oliveira answered with his own touchdown to make sure that comeback was short lived. Carter Wilson iced the cake with a 53 yard fumble return touchdown. Portland State will be at Cal Poly in next week’s Big Sky Pillow Fight of the Week, while North Dakota will be at Southern Utah.

Sacramento State was looking to unseat the only team with an undefeated record in Big Sky Conference play, however they were going to have to play lights out for that to happen. Northern Arizona’s defense held the Hornets to 233 yards to stop Sacramento State in their flight pattern. The Jacks jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead thanks to a Case Cookus touchdown and a Wes Sutton interception return. The Hornets came right back with a Joseph Ajeigbe 71 yard touchdown run. Sacramento State made it interesting in the third quarter with Elijah Dotson touchdown catch from Roman Ale to get the score to 20-17. However, the Jacks had other plans getting a score from Joe Logan, then icing the game with a pick six from Kam’Ron Johnson to put it away. Sacramento State will look back on this one and be kicking themselves. Northern Arizona will be at Montana next week, Sacramento State will host Northern Colorado.

In the Big Sky night cap Cal Poly was trying to get into the win column for the first time this season, but to do so they had to beat their in-state rival UC-Davis. The Aggies jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead on three Jake Maier touchdown passes. Two of them to Wesley Preece, one to Aaron Moore. Cal Poly got one on the board with a score from Jared Mohamed. On their opening drive of the second quarter Cal Poly got another sore from Kyle Lewis, hauling in a 42 yard touchdown pass. Davis would answer right back with another Aaron Moore touchdown reception. Poly wasn’t done as they kept chipping away, getting touchdowns from Broc Mortensen and Jared Mohamed, however, that wasn’t enough to get by Davis. Davis was held scoreless in the second half. Cal Poly will host Portland State in the Big Sky Conference Pillow Fight of the Week, while Davis will travel to Idaho State.

Scores

Montana 27
Weber State 41

Southern Utah 27
Northern Colorado 14

Idaho State 14
Montana State 28

North Dakota 48
Portland State 21

Sacramento State 17
Northern Arizona 37

Cal Poly 28
UC Davis 31

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky player of the week is Northern Arizona’s Case Cookus. Cookus was 35/57 for 407 yards and a touchdown in the Lumberjacks’ win over Sacramento State this past weekend.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington – Idle
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – No stats recorded
Tanner Gueller, QB, Idaho State – 17/28 for 193 yards, 1 TD 2 INT
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 14 receptions, 145 yards
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – 21/42 for 347 yards, 3 TD 3 INT

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Eastern Washington
3. Weber State
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. Montana State
7. UC-Davis
8. Sacramento State
9. Idaho State
10. Northern Colorado
11. North Dakota
12. Portland State
13. Cal Poly

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

The Pillow Fight of the Week is hilarious for the second week in a row. These teams at the bottom of the conference are so bad.

Speaking of bad, it’d be awesome if Big Sky commish Andrea Williams watched her referees and made some changes. All I’m saying on the topic.

The mess at the top of the Big Sky won’t be cleared up for at least a couple of weeks. By then we should see how many Big Sky teams are going to the playoffs. Naturally there will be some bubble teams but I see four BSC teams getting in. I see five teams playing for those four spots.

If Cal Poly doesn’t beat Portland State this weekend I don’t think they’re going to win a game this year. Far fall for the Mustangs.

Saw a game in Ogden last weekend. That was a difference experience. Utah has weird laws in bars, man.

Northern Arizona has played a pretty easy Big Sky schedule so far, their next three games aren’t going to be as nice to them. They’re rolling with a lot of momentum right now and anything can happen, but these next three weeks could make or break them.

Southern Utah, on the other hand, have only one test left. They will be hosting Northern Arizona to end the season. I’d say SUU is lock for the playoffs even if they trip up once in the last three weeks. Or even twice, for that matter.

My picks this week: Montana, Kennesaw State, Eastern Washington, UC-Davis, Southern Utah, Sacramento State, Cal Poly.

MVFC – Week 9 in Review

MVFC LogoAnother week of winnowing down the potential playoff teams as a preseason conference favorite got effectively eliminated from contention.

Let’s take a look at conference standings, where teams are in relation to being set up for a playoff spot or if they’re already out of the picture. I’ll list the team, then overall record, conference record, and then each team’s remaining 3 games of the regular season.

School Overall Conference Remaining 5 Games
North Dakota State 8-0 5-0 @SDSU, USD, @ILSU
South Dakota 7-1 4-1 @UNI, @NDSU, SDSU
Illinois State 6-2 4-1 WIU, @SDSU, NDSU
South Dakota State 6-2 3-2 NDSU, ILSU, @USD
Northern Iowa 4-4 3-2 USD, @MSU, INSU
Western Illinois 5-3 2-3 @ILSU, @INSU, SIU
Southern Illinois 4-4 2-3 MSU, YSU, @WIU
Youngstown State 3-5 1-4 @INSU, @SIU, MSU
Missouri State 2-6 1-4 @SIU, UNI, @YSU
Indiana State 0-8 0-5 YSU, WIU, @UNI

For reference, in recent history, I believe only one 8-DI-win MVFC team has been excluded from the playoffs (YSU in 2013, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season, but was tied with 3 other MVFC teams at 5-3 in the conference). In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.

NDSU and USD have reached 7 wins (NDSU has 8), which means that barring some complete collapse to finish the season, both teams are in the playoffs. Honestly, NDSU could probably lose all three of their remaining games and still be in, although without a seed.

ILSU and SDSU are sitting at 6-2 and need one more win to be likely in the playoffs. I think ILSU has a slightly easier route to get there, playing WIU in Normal next weekend. ILSU’s other two opponents and all of SDSU’s remaining 3 opponents are in the top half of the conference.

WIU is 5-3 currently and need to pick up at least 2 of their remaining three to get in. They should be able to take the last two games of the season, although the next one (ILSU) will be tough.

UNI and SIU are 4-4 overall and both probably need to win out to be in safely. They could do it, but it won’t be easy. Not sure if either will be able to get there. UNI has a tough game against USD coming up and SIU just lost their QB for the season, so the rest of their games will be difficult.

YSU…last year’s national championship runner-up is 3-5 and the best they can hope for now is barely a winning record at 6-5. Considering how the rest of the FCS landscape looks, I don’t see a 6-5 team making it into the playoffs this year, so I think they’re pretty much out.

MSU is 2-6 and the best they can get to now is 5-6; INSU is 0-8 and can only get to 3-8. Both teams are out of playoff consideration.

#14T South Dakota State at #8 Western Illinois

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SDSU 10 14 21 7 52
WIU 10 7 0 7 24

Quick Hits:

  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion threw for 423 yards and 6 TDs and ran for 37 yards and a TD, earning him the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week Award
  • SDSU – TE Dallas Goedert caught 8 passes for 113 yards and WR Jake Wieneke had 8 catches for 97 yards and 3 TDs
  • SDSU – LB Christian Rozeboom had 10 tackles, a fumble recovery, and an interception, and was awarded the MVFC Defesive Player of the Week Award
  • WIU – RB Steve McShane ran for 90 yards and 2 TDs and caught for 66 yards and another TD
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor had 14 tackles and now has 425 career tackles, 3rd in WIU history, and leads the FCS with 118 total tackles
  • WIU – K Nathan Erickson hit his second FG of the season (on his second attempt), this time from 45 yards

Ugh…this one hurts (remember…Leatherneck fan here). SDSU decided that this was the day that they would kick things back into high gear with the offense they had last year. We just don’t match up well with really good passing teams right now. The first quarter started with SDSU getting a TD on the first drive, but went back and forth with SDSU taking a 24-17 lead into halftime. The 3rd quarter, however, was all Jackrabbits, with 3 TDs putting them ahead by 28 going into the 4th. WIU picked up a TD, but SDSU answered back with another one of their own to win by the same margin, 52-24.

South Dakota State moves to 6-2 overall, 3-2 in the MVFC and will head home to play 8-0 North Dakota State for the Dakota Marker Trophy next weekend.
Western Illinois drops to 5-3 overall and 2-3 in the MVFC and hopes to regroup against a tough 6-2 Illinois State team for the 100th meeting of the two programs.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 6
It was: Jackrabbits by 28
I thought it’d be a high-scoring game…and I was right for one team…but not for both, and not for the pick.

#20 Illinois State at #23 Youngstown State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
ILSU 14 7 7 7 35
YSU 0 0 0 0 0

Quick Hits:

  • ILSU – RB James Robinson had 117 yards and 3 TDs
  • ILSU – LB Tyree Horton picked up 1.5 sacks including one that created a fumble that was picked up and returned for a TD by D-Lineman Matt McCown. Horton also had 5 tackles and was a big part of a crew that shut out YSU for the first time since 2008
  • ILSU – RB Markel Smith recorded 124 yards rushing and 1 TD
  • YSU – RB Tevin McCaster ran for only 32 yards on 9 attempts
  • YSU – Penguin defense held the Redbirds to only 42 passing yards, their fewest since 2015
  • YSU – LB Armand Dellovade led the team with 11 tackles

Actually, nobody did much throwing in this game, with the two teams combining for a total of 105 yards, 14 completions, 1 INT and 0 TDs (SDSU’s Taryn Christion had more than that by halfway through the 2nd quarter by himself in their game). The Penguin nosedive continues with their 4th straight loss and “officially” (by my estimation) being eliminated from playoff contention. There’s not really much to discuss about this game…the Redbirds got 2 TDs in the 1st (one off a fumble recovery) then 7 points in each of the remaining quarters and completely shut down YSU’s offense. Game…set…match.

Illinois State heads back home with a 6-2 record and 4-1 in the conference and takes on 5-3 Western Illinois in what should be a good game for the 100th matchup of the two teams.
Youngstown State is now 3-5 overall and 1-4 in the MVFC and will tuck their tails (do penguins have tails?) between their legs and waddle off to Indiana State to find out how far they’ve really fallen this season taking on the winless Sycamores.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Redbirds by 8
It was: Redbirds by 35
Holy hell…I knew YSU’s offense wasn’t going to be good with the injuries, but I did not expect ILSU to put up 35 points on them. Not sure if I can count this towards my picks win total since it was way off. Eh…I’m the one scoring here…close enough.

Indiana State (0-7, 0-4 MVFC) at Missouri State (1-6, 0-4 MVFC)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
INSU 0 6 14 0 20
MSU 17 21 14 7 59

Quick Hits:

  • MSU – QB Peyton Huslig threw for 211 yards and 2 TDs while running for 174 yards and 2 more TDs and earned the MVFC Newcomer of the Week Award
  • MSU – LB Angelo Garbutt had 16 tackles including 5 solo tackles
  • MSU – PK Zach Drake hit a 28-yard FG and was 8/8 on PATs and received the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week Award
  • MSU – RG Marquis Prophete blocked for a MSU offense that put up 624 yards of total offense…the team’s highest single-game total in 10 years and he was awarded the MVFC O-Lineman of the Week Award

This one got out of hand pretty quickly with MSU putting up 17 points in the first quarter and shutting out the Sycamores. INSU was only able to manage one TD in the first half, but the Bears had no trouble scoring, holding a commanding 38-6 lead at halftime. Coming out of the break, Indiana State did get a couple more TDs, but each was responded to by the same from Missouri State within a few minutes of clock time. One more MSU TD in the 4th quarter was the cherry on top of a 59-20 victory for Missouri State

Missouri State picks up their first conference win moving to 2-6 overall (1-4 in the MVFC) and actually have a halfway-decent chance at another one when they head east to take on 4-4 Southern Illinois.
Indiana State falls to 0-7 overall, 0-5 in the MVFC and are seeing their hopes for a win this season quickly slip away. They’ll welcome 3-5 Youngstown State to their place next weekend, when they’ll commiserate about what their plans are for Saturday after Thanksgiving…and they’ll be playing some football too…maybe.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bears by 7
It was: Bears by 39
Got the winner right, but I think I have to stop picking close games. Just blowouts from here on out.

#22 Northern Iowa at #2 North Dakota State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
UNI 0 7 0 7 14
NDSU 0 7 10 13 30

Quick Hits:

  • UNI – WR Daurice Fountain had 43 yards and 2 TDs receiving
  • UNI – FS Elijah Campbell had 4 tackles, 2 pass breakups, and 2 interceptions (Stick’s 3rd and 4th INTs of the season)
  • UNI – LB Jared Farley led the team with 12 tackles including 1 sack and 2 pass breakups
  • NDSU – LB Nick DeLuca led the Bison with 7 tackles including 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a QB hurry
  • NDSU – RG Austin Kuhnert had 6 knockdowns and did not allow a sack. He graded out at 100 percent assignment, 83 percent technique, and had zero penalties
  • NDSU – RB Bruce Anderson had 78 rushing yards an 1 TD on 26 attempts

The Panthers were the first to put points on the board early in the second quarter of the game, but it was nearly all Bison after that. The teams went into halftime tied at 7, then NDSU broke things open in the 3rd and early into the 4th with 3 more TDs and a FG before UNI would get any more points…a TD with just over 5 minutes to go in the game. The Bison defense held UNI to only 157 yards of total offense in the 30-14 win.

Northern Iowa falls to 4-4 overall, 3-2 in the MVFC and have another tough matchup, this time against 7-1 South Dakota, back at the UNI-Dome next Saturday.
North Dakota State stays perfect at 8-0 (5-0 in conference) and head down I-29 to take on 6-2 South Dakota State next weekend. Winner gets a big rock…or something.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 2
It was: Bison by 16
I kind thought UNI would stick a little closer to the Bison, but nope. The pick is right though…so that’s nice.

#32 Southern Illinois at #5 South Dakota

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SIU 0 0 0 0 0
USD 14 7 7 14 42

Quick Hits:

  • SIU – QB Tanner Hearn threw for 231 yards, but also 4 INTs and was sacked 3 times after starting QB Sam Straub was injured early in the 2nd quarter
  • SIU – WR Darrell James caught 5 passes for 105 yards…the only non-QB offensive player to go over 100 yards in the game
  • SIU – S Ryan Neal led the team with 12 tackles
  • USD – QB Austin Simmons threw for 91 yards and 2 TDs filling in for starting QB Chris Streveler who was injured 3 1/2 minutes into the game
  • USD – S Andrew Gray had 6 tackles, 2 for loss (1 sack) and returned an INT 97 yards for a TD (a school record)
  • USD – CB Mark Collins Jr. had two tackles, one for loss, and 4 pass breakups in his first collegiate start

Two teams with very good QBs that account for a large percentages of their respective offense’s yards…how about we see how they do without those QBs. When both QBs go down and they’re playing each other, the difference is going to be on the lines and the defenses. Unfortunately for the Salukis, they don’t have a great defense. USD had a couple of TDs in the first quarter, one in the 2nd, the INT returned for a TD in the 3rd, and two more TDs in the 4th, for a final score of 42-0. Fortunately for the Coyotes, it sounds like their QB Chris Streveler, was feeling better later in the game, but they decided to let him sit out the rest of the game (they’ll really need him in the next few games). SIU wasn’t so lucky, with QB Sam Straub suffering what appears to be a season-ending (he’s a Junior, should be back next year) broken wrist/hand injury.

Southern Illinois falls to 4-4, 2-3 in-conference and welcomes 1-6 Missouri State to Carbondale next weekend.
South Dakota picks up win number 7, and likely solidifies their playoff spot and will take on 4-4 Northern Iowa next Saturday.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Coyotes by 21
It was: Coyotes by 42
If Straub had made it through the game, I think I would have been nearly dead-on with my pick, since I really doubt they’d be able to completely shut down SIU’s offense with him in control.

I was 37-13 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 4-1 in my picks which puts me at 41-14 for the season so far.

We are now down to 3 games left in the regular season. Check back later this week for my full preview of all of the Week 10 games in the MVFC…which looks to be something of a proximity/rivalry week in the conference, and because all my close picks seem to turn out to be blowouts I’ll be picking NDSU by 175 points in the Dakota Marker game, just FYI.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 9 Results

The week 9 AGS poll didn’t see a lot of movement at the top but the middle and bottom were a much different story as 9 top 25 teams from the week 8 rankings sustained losses. The top 5 remained unchanged from last week as James Madison, North Dakota State, Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas, and South Dakota formed the top 5 in that order.

A lot of teams took advantage of teams in front of them losing such as South Dakota State who moved up 5 spots to #9 following their big win over previously top 10 ranked Western Illinois. Big Sky conference mates Northern Arizona and Southern Utah climbed 4 and 5 spots to #10 and #11, respectively. Illinois State continued their resurgence climbing 7 spots to #13 and Stony Brook rose 5 spots to #14 following their respective wins over fading Youngstown State and Richmond teams. Weber State used a big home over Montana to climb up 8 spots to #17. In all though the biggest gainer of the week was Furman who made their 2017 debut in the AGS top 25 by shooting up 12 spots to #18 following their convincing win over Western Carolina. Monmouth also cracked the top 25 for the first time this year coming in at #22.

On the flip side Western Illinois dropped 8 spots to #16 following their big home loss to SDSU. SOCON mates Samford and Western Carolina each dropped 9 spots to #19 and #20, respectively, after being upset by Chattanooga and Furman. Delaware gave back some of the ground they had gained in recent weeks sliding 8 spots to #21 after a head scratching one point loss at Towson. Youngstown State and Richmond dropped out of the top 25 for the first time all year for each after sustaining losses last Saturday.

The MVFC led the way placing 6 teams into the top 25. They were followed by the CAA with 5, the Big Sky and SOCON with 4 each, and the Southland with 3 teams ranked in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1967 71
2 North Dakota State Bison 1903 8
3 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1757
4 Central Arkansas Bears 1734
5 South Dakota Coyotes 1638
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1511
7 Elon Phoenix 1510
8 Wofford Terriers 1379
9 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1285
10 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 1221
11 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1136
12 North Carolina A&T Aggies 945
13 Illinois State Redbirds 936
14 Stony Brook Seawolves 909
15 Eastern Washington Eagles 789
16 Western Illinois Leathernecks 776
17 Weber State Wildcats 755
18 Furman Paladins 612
19 Samford Bulldogs 462
20 Western Carolina Catamounts 447
21 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 381
22 Monmouth Hawks 313
23 Villanova Wildcats 234
24 Northern Iowa Panthers 226
25 McNeese State Cowboys 213
ORV:
26 Nicholls State Colonels 157
27 Grambling State Tigers 121
28 New Hampshire Wildcats 103
29 Kennessaw State Owls 80
30 Richmond Spiders 51
31 Montana Grizzlies 35
32 Yale Bulldogs 26
33 Duquesne Dukes 21
34T North Carolina Central Eagles 10
34T Maine Black Bears 10
36T Youngstown State Penguins 4
36T The Citadel Bulldogs 4
36T Southeastern Louisiana Lions 4

 

Most Significant Win: Furman Paladins
Most Significant Loss: Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?198163-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-9-10-30-2017

SOCON Week 9 Review

Citadel 21 VMI 3

The Citadel Bulldogs kept the Silver Shako for another year after a strong win against a still-winless VMI team.  The Bulldogs won their second straight game of the season to improve their record to 5-3.  The Citadel ran for over 400 yards against the Keydets and out-gained them 421 to 219.  The Citadel run defense remained one of the strongest in the conference, holding VMI to 72 yards on 32 carries.  The one blemish for the Bulldogs was that they missed 4 field goals inside 40 yards. The Citadel offense, which has been stung by three and outs all season only had two on the day. Meanwhile, VMI was only able to get into the redzone once on their opening drive, being held to less than 3.5 yards a play.

The Bulldogs may not make the playoffs this year, but now they are playing for pride.  The difference between this year’s Citadel team and last year’s team is matter of efficiency on offense.  Ill-timed fumbles, missed field goals and a bad first quarter against Samford appear to be the difference between this team being competitive for a playoff spot and competing for a respectable 7-4 rating.  The Bulldog defense is still one of the best in the conference, still leading in rush defense.  The offense has proven it can grind the clock and slow the pace of play at times, which is an equalizer against any opponent. Still, the option attack for the Citadel hasn’t proven its ability to score more than 20 or so points a game and has only scored 30 once against Socon competition.  The Bulldogs are young on offense, replacing a lot of talent on a team that went undefeated in conference play last year, so some drop off is expected. Having said that, it’s unwise to underestimate the potential of a young and talented team coached by a man who didn’t lose a conference game until his second year. The next two games against Western Carolina and Furman will be difficult for the Bulldogs, but not impossible to win. 

Meanwhile, VMI may not win a game this year, having not scored 20 points against any division one opponent. There’s not much nuance to it: they just can’t score points reliably. Their defense is probably better than the statistics show, but you can’t expect a defense on any team to carry it if the offense can’t reliable score 20 points a game. The Keydets go to Johnson City, Tennessee next week to play ETSU, a squad they walloped last year, but the two programs seem to be heading in opposite directions.  ETSU is clearly better this year than last year, by virtue of their offensive output, while VMI is clearly worse by the same measure.

Furman 28 Western Carolina 6

A torrential downpour welcomed Furman to Cullowhee, North Carolina for Western Carolina’s homecoming.  An early injury to Western Carolina’s star Quarterback Tyrie Adams set back the Catamount offense in a way they couldn’t overcome.  In an old-fashioned slobberknocker of a football game, Furman ran the ball 55 times for 363 yards and only completed two passes for 60 yards (they threw only five times) and a touchdown in route to a 28-6 victory.  Western Carolina was still able to run the ball for 241 yards on 53 carries and 107 yards passing on 14 completions.  

It’s unclear how this game would have turned out had the weather been better or had Adams played the whole game, but Adams doesn’t play defense.  Going into the game, Western Carolina had given up 4.2 yards per carry on defense, which is a bad sign considering the only quality running team they had played was Wofford (Davidson, ETSU, Chattanooga, VMI and Samford are not known for their run game).  The strength of Western’s defense has been pass defense, being the only team in the conference to hold opposing QBs to below 50% completions (a phenomenal number when you consider they’ve played the best passing teams in the conference).  Furman just didn’t need to throw the ball. Though Catamount fans may always question what could have been and their defense has certainly improved this year, run defense is what’s preventing them from taking the next step into being a title contender.  Going forward, the Catamounts risk not making the playoffs without Adams.  They need to find an offense without him next week against the Citadel to hope to make the playoffs.

This game reiterated that Furman’s offense is one of the best in the country due to their ability to run the ball and the arm strength of QB P.J. Blazejowski.   Furman controls their own destiny when it comes to winning a share of the Socon. What sets Furman apart from other teams in the conference is their balance and consistency on offense. No matter the opponent, Furman’s offense will score about 50% of the possessions they have. So long as their offense scores at that rate, it’s unlikely that any team will beat them in conference play. They still have to play two formidable defenses in Samford and the Citadel, but they should be favored in those games given their performance thus far. It’s hard to gauge their defense because they get the job done, but in different and inconsistent ways (even without Adams, shutting down Western’s offense is impressive, yet at the same time they let ETSU pass for 400 yards against them). Though they should be favored in their next two games, it will be interesting to see how Furman plays both.  Wofford was able to wear down the young and injured Furman defense in the fourth quarter, and the Citadel is the most comparable team to Wofford in the conference.  Yet still, the Paladins will have a week to prepare. With Samford, Furman will probably enter the game with a pass defense near the bottom of the conference, while Samford has a somewhat vulnerable run defense.  It’s hard to gauge how either game will go, but it’s certain that Furman will have earned equal share of the conference title if they win both.

Chattanooga 23 Samford 21

In perhaps the biggest upset of the season, Chattanooga got their first win against a ranked opponent on the road in over 30 years.  The Samford Bulldogs, hot after a 24-21 win on the road at Wofford last week, turned the ball over 7 times including a key fumble inside Chattanooga territory, up 1, with about 2:20 seconds left in the game. Chattanooga had its fair share of turnovers as well, with four, but the Mocs ultimately prevailed on a 39-yard field goal with less than 20 seconds left to take the lead 23-21. For the second straight week, Samford failed to establish any semblance of a run game, rushing for 34 yards on 27 attempts, with the most of those yards coming from a 16 yard scramble by Devlin Hodges in the fourth quarter. Hodges managed to complete 60% of his passes for 333 yards, but could not overcome 3 interceptions.

The Chattanooga offense has struggled all season but has improved steadily under freshman QB Cole Copeland. The Mocs offense has failed to score 20 points on anyone but winless VMI, but in the past few weeks has improved to where they are in a position to win games in the fourth quarter.  Though the defense isn’t as statistically impressive as it was last year, it’s still a solid group with a strong pass defense and the ability to force turnovers and score on their own.  No doubt, the Mocs have found their rhythm and have the capability to win against Wofford and ETSU to close out the season.  If they can protect Copeland against a Wofford pass rush that’s been kind of quiet this year and avoid turnovers, it’s possible they’ll get their second straight road win against a top 10 team. 

For Samford, this marks the third straight year they’ve lost to a team with a losing record.  When the Bulldogs were playing at their best, they weren’t playing cute, throwing offensive lineman screens and double reverses on third and one, they were passing the ball effectively and running the ball well enough when they needed to. Devlin Hodges is probably the only quarterback in the conference who can beat any team by himself if the playcalling is good enough.  Though the playoffs are certainly within reach, the road gets a little harder and uncertain, as they have to play a resurgent ETSU, offensive juggernaut Furman, and defensive powerhouse Mercer. If they lose one of those games, it’s likely they’ll get left out of the playoffs; if they lose two, it’s almost certain they’ll be left out.

Wofford 31 ETSU 24

Wofford once again won a game that was close in the fourth quarter.  This time, the Terriers never lost the lead and at one time led by two scores in the fourth quarter (something that’s only happened once this year prior to this week).  ETSU once again showed improvement as a third-year program, with Junior Quarterback Austin Herinck passing 23 of 34 for 262 yards and two touchdowns.  In the first half, the Terriers ran wild for close to 300 yards of total offense, including more yards passing than ETSU, but only had 17 points to show for it. The difference in this game was in the trenches as Wofford was able to control the line of scrimmage, limiting ETSU to 15 yards rushing on 33 attempts and harassing Herinck into making mistakes. Last week, Samford proved you could beat Wofford through the air (no run game necessary), but unlike Samford, ETSU tries to establish a run game in every game. ETSU’s passing game was sufficient to keep the game competitive into the final minutes. The game was in doubt on the last possession as ETSU drove inside Wofford’s 30, but failed on a fourth down conversion attempt.

ETSU is a pleasant surprise this year and has all the markings of a team that’s developing into a legitimate FCS program.  Though they currently don’t have the talent on the line of scrimmage to be successful (they are low in the conference standing in run defense, sacks allowed and rushing offense) they have a quarterback that can sling the ball over the field and a strong kicker who kicks touchbacks on 2 of every 3 kickoffs.  They have problems winning on the road, but every game they’ve played at home has gone down to the wire against the Citadel (6 point loss), Wofford (7 point loss) and Mercer (overtime win). As soon as this team improves in the trenches they will be hard to beat. Next week they may not need it as they play a winless VMI team at home.  With games against offensively challenged opponents in Chattanooga and VMI, look out for the Bucs possibly ending the year on a win streak.

The win for Wofford puts them at 7-1 and 5-1 in Socon play.  Another win would likely clinch a playoff spot (arguably they’re in with 7 wins right now), while two wins in the next two weeks would clinch the Socon and a possible seed for the Terriers. Though this game was frustrating to watch from the Terrier’s side, and at this point the one-score wins are getting old for the Terrier faithful, this was the third game of the season the Terriers never trailed. Ill-timed three and outs in the third quarter forced by the ETSU defense, prevented the Terriers from putting the game away. The “ifs” and “buts” have piled up on the Terriers this year, in a season that’s spectacularly odd. Mistakes in games they’ve led have kept games close they should win easily, while mistake by other teams in games they’ve trailed (Furman, Mercer) have kept them in a position to win.  By that measure, they’re lucky to be 7-1, but by another they are statistically about the same as last year in all categories, except passing which has shown improvement and sacks which has declined this year. Next week, Chattanooga will be a different challenge for the Terriers as the Moc defense is clearly better than ETSU’s (by virtue of both the statistics and being a fully developed division one program), but Conner Copeland and the Chattanooga offense are an enigma at this point. The Terriers will be favored, but if the past is any indication of the future this game will be close.

AGS Top 25 – How They Fared Week 9 2017

From superman7515 on AGS again.  Thanks supey.

#1 James Madison Dukes Won vs #27 New Hampshire Wildcats 21-0
#2 North Dakota State Bison Won vs #22 Northern Iowa Panthers 30-14
#3 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Won vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 23-7
#4 Central Arkansas Bears Won vs #21 McNeese State Cowboys 47-17
#5 South Dakota Coyotes Won vs #32 Southern Illinois Salukis 42-0
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats Won at #38 Southeastern Louisiana Lions 33-23
#7 Elon Phoenix Won at #18 Villanova Wildcats 19-14
#8 Western Illinois Leathernecks Lost vs #14 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24-52
#9 Wofford Terriers Won at East Tennessee State Buccaneers 31-24
#10 Samford Bulldogs Lost vs Chattanooga Mocs 21-23
#11 Western Carolina Catamounts Lost vs #30 Furman Paladins 6-28
#12 North Carolina A&T Aggies BYE
#13 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens Lost at Towson Tigers 17-18
#14 (t) Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Won vs #34 Sacramento State Hornets 37-17
#14 (t) South Dakota State Jackrabbits Won at #8 Western Illinois Leathernecks 52-24
#16 Southern Utah Thunderbirds Won at Northern Colorado Bears 27-14
#17 Eastern Washington Eagles BYE
#18 Villanova Wildcats Lost vs #7 Elon Phoenix 14-19
#19 Stony Brook Seawolves Won at #24 Richmond Spiders 27-24
#20 Illinois State Redbirds Won at #23 Youngstown State Penguins 35-0
#21 McNeese State Cowboys Lost at #4 Central Arkansas Bears 17-47
#22 Northern Iowa Panthers Lost at #2 North Dakota State Bison 14-30
#23 Youngstown State Penguins Lost vs #20 Illinois State Redbirds 0-35
#24 Richmond Spiders Lost vs #19 Stony Brook Seawolves 24-27
#25 Weber State Wildcats Won vs #26 Montana Grizzlies 41-27
Next 15
#26 Montana Grizzlies Lost at #25 Weber State Wildcats 27-41
#27 New Hampshire Wildcats Lost at #1 James Madison Dukes 0-21
#28 Monmouth Hawks Won at Charleston Southern Buccaneers 23-20
#29 Grambling State Tigers Won vs Texas Southern Tigers 50-24
#30 Furman Paladins Won at #11 Western Carolina Catamounts 28-6
#31 Nicholls State Colonels Won vs Incarnate Word Cardinals 38-31
#32 Southern Illinois Salukis Lost at #5 South Dakota Coyotes 0-42
#33 Columbia Lions Lost at Yale Bulldogs 6-23
#34 (t) Austin Peay Governors Lost at #18 (FBS) Central Florida Knights 33-73
#34 (t) Sacramento State Hornets Lost at #14 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 17-37
#36 North Carolina Central Eagles Won vs Delaware State Hornets 42-14
#37 Maine Black Bears Won vs William & Mary Tribe 23-6
#38 (t) Kennesaw State Owls Won at Presbyterian Blue Hose 28-0
#38 (t) Southeastern Louisiana Lions Lost vs #6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 23-33
#40 The Citadel Bulldogs Won vs Virginia Military Institute Keydets 21-3

 

 

MVFC – Week 9 Preview

MVFC LogoAnd then there were four…weeks left in the season, that is. As is often the case this time of year, nearly every game looks like it could have a huge impact in deciding who ends up playing after Thanksgiving and who gets to sit at home and eat turkey, dreaming about next year. There’s only two teams in the conference that are officially out of playoff contention, and they play each other this week, so all the rest of the games involve two teams that have a chance at the postseason, but for a few, it’s a pretty slim chance.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings.

So, here are the games this week:
1:00 PM – #14T South Dakota State (5-2, 2-2 MVFC) at #8 Western Illinois (5-2, 2-2 MVFC)
1:00 PM – #20 Illinois State (5-2, 3-1 MVFC) at #23 Youngstown State (3-4, 1-3 MVFC)
2:00 PM – Indiana State (0-7, 0-4 MVFC) at Missouri State (1-6, 0-4 MVFC)
2:30 PM – #22 Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1 MVFC) at #2 North Dakota State (7-0, 4-0 MVFC)
3:00 PM – #32 Southern Illinois (4-3, 2-2 MVFC) at #5 South Dakota (6-1, 3-1 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

#14T South Dakota State at #8 Western Illinois

Last Week:

  • South Dakota State won at Missouri State, 62-30
  • Western Illinois lost at North Dakota State, 24-12

History: The Jackrabbits and Leathernecks have played 14 times starting back in 1976. SDSU has a 9-5 series lead and a 3-4 series lead at Hanson Field. Last year’s matchup was a 52-14 blowout loss for Western at Brookings.

South Dakota State had a decent OOC portion of their season, beating up on two “lower scholarship” teams and getting a close win at Montana State. They then lost at YSU by 12, demolished SIU by 35, lost to UNI by 20, and steamrolled MSU by 32. Last year’s insane offensive attack of QB Taryn Christion, TE Dallas Goedert, and WR Jake Wieneke have been somewhat held in check this season, only putting up 258 ypg through the air, although they can still be dangerous at times, putting up an average of 38.4 ppg. The Jackrabbit defense is allowing 172 ypg on the ground (81st in FCS) but do better against the pass (45th in FCS) and is led by Christian Rozeboom, who is averaging 9.7 tackles per game. The SDSU defense struggles to get pressure on the line, only averaging 3.9 tackles for loss (1.57 sacks) per game on opposing offenses. The Jackrabbits as a whole are very disciplined, only getting hit with 4.29 penalties per game (8th in the FCS).

Western Illinois had a similar situation, winning all 3 OOC games, losing by 5 to USD, winning at UNI by 9, beating MSU at home by 19, then losing at NDSU by 12, putting them both at 5-2 on the season. QB Sean McGuire and WR Jaelon Acklin headline an offense that puts up 37.6 points per game. Acklin specifically is currently 4th in the FCS with 134.7 receiving yards per game and 6th in receiving TDs with 8 (tied with SDSU’s Jake Wieneke). Defensively, the Leathernecks are averaging 8.4 tackles for loss per game and are led by LB Brett Taylor, who leads the entire FCS with 14.9 tackles per game and an experienced defensive line that allows 121 ypg on the ground. The DBs have been suspect, giving up 242 yards per game via air (still an improvement over last year’s 297 ypg). Western is one of the better teams in the FCS at both gaining turnovers (13th) and not losing the ball themselves (6th) resulting in a “3rd in the FCS” turnover margin of +1.71/game that currently leads the MVFC.

So, the two top WRs in the conference right now on two of the better offenses, going against defenses that have both shown some weaknesses. Sounds like a pretty high scoring game to me. I think Western will move the ball pretty well on the ground but might struggle on longer passes, whereas the reverse will likely be true for South Dakota State. I think the two teams are fairly evenly matched right now, with maybe a slight edge to the Leathernecks. My guess is that WIU will be a little more effective on offense, maybe pick up an extra turnover or two, and come away with a 6-point win. Probably with both teams in the 30s to low 40s point range.

#20 Illinois State at #23 Youngstown State (Homecoming)

Last Week:

  • Illinois State beat South Dakota, 37-21
  • Youngstown State lost at Northern Iowa, 19-14

History: The Redbirds and Penguins have played 26 times starting in 1979 with the all-time series tied up at 13 each. Last year’s meeting was a 20-6 YSU victory in Normal.

Illinois State had been coming off of two embarrassing road losses (to Northern Arizona and SIU) where they’d been outscored 79-23, and had nearly had their playoff hopes written off with a series of 5 very tough games to finish out the season…before roaring back into the playoff conversation by taking down previously unbeaten South Dakota…by 16 points. The Redbirds are led by QB Jake Kolbe who is throwing for 251 ypg and has 10 TDs and 9 INTs. WR Spencer Schnell gets the majority of the catches, with 87 ypg and 4 TDs, although turned in a 191 yards and 2 TD receiving game against USD. RB James Robinson (80 ypg and 6 TDs) also had a great game against USD with 193 yards and 2 TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, LB Tyree Horton leads the team in tackles with 48 including 6 for loss (2 sacks) and a forced fumble and recovery. The Redbird defense is particularly strong against the run, ranking 5th in the FCS in run defense, although they have had a tendency to give up a decent number of yards through the air to good passing teams. They struggle with turnovers (-0.71 margin per game) and allowing tackles for loss (102nd in FCS).

Youngstown State meanwhile, has found themselves in a freefall the last few weeks. Last year’s national championship runner-up started with an OT loss to FBS Pitt, then three straight wins before losing the next three straight (against some pretty tough teams), but they now find themselves with a losing record and the need to win pretty much all of their final 4 games to have a shot at the playoffs. It’s kinda hard to go by stats with YSU, since they’ve had three different players at QB this season (who are three different types of QBs). It sounds like Ricky Davis (primarily a WR) will likely get the start at QB. He’s thrown for 106 yards on 6 completions with 1 TD so far this season. RB Tevin McCaster needs to have a great game if they want any hope of winning this though…he’s averaging just over 89 ypg with 9 TDs, although only had 26 yards against UNI last week. S Kyle Hegedus is the top tackler (53) on one of the better passing defenses in the FCS (7th), but they’ve given up quite a few yards on the ground. They do exceptionally well at not giving up the ball (1st in the FCS) but not great at forcing and gaining turnovers (2nd to last in the FCS).

YSU is essentially already in the playoffs…having to win out to keep playing past the regular season. ILSU has a bit more leeway currently, but the way the rest of their schedule looks, they probably need 2 or more wins to make it in and it’s not going to be an easy schedule. They’ll want to have a solid running game to take the win against the Penguins, which I think they’ll be able to do. I think ILSU is going to come out really well against a battered-up YSU and nab a win by about 8 points.

Indiana State at Missouri State (Homecoming)

Last Week:

  • Indiana State lost to Southern Illinois, 45-24
  • Missouri State lost to South Dakota State, 62-30

History: The Sycamores have played the Bears 31 times starting in 1986. MSU has a 18-13 series lead and last year’s meeting was a 45-24 victory for the Bears in Terre Haute.

Indiana State has taken a preseason last place MVFC ranking and gone downhill from there. They had a couple of close games OOC, but injuries have really taken their toll, causing the Sycamores to be outscored 177-43 in 4 MVFC matchups. QB Cade Sparks is averaging only 123 ypg with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. Two bright spots on offense are WR and return specialist Bob Pugh with 81.14 ypg and 3 TDs receiving, a 15 yard per punt return average and a 19.1 yard per kickoff return average; and RB LeMonte Booker with just over 80 ypg and 3 TDs on the ground + 73 total yards and a TD receiving. Booker actually turned in an impressive 104 yard rushing performance against NDSU (the most rushing yards the Bison have given up to any RB this season) even though the team was shut out. Outside of their run defense, Indiana State is ranked in the bottom 20 in the FCS in just about all defensive categories. Their top tacklers are LB Jonas Griffith (64 tackles, 5 for loss w/ 2.5 sacks, and 1 fumble recovery) and LB Katrell Moss (63 tackles, 5.5 for loss).

Missouri State has mostly played closer games against some teams, and actually have a win this season, but like INSU, are winless in the MVFC. QB Peyton Huslig has been throwing for 187 ypg with 5 TDs and 9 INTs but also runs for just under 40 ypg and 2 TDs. WR Malik Earl averages 82.7 ypg and has 2 TDs receiving. In total, they’re averaging around 352 ypg. On the other side of the ball, LB McNeece Egbim leads the team with 43 tackles including 5 for loss (1 sack) and 1 fumble recovery. D-Lineman Colby Isbell has 3 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles this season. Outside of that though, there’s not much to be excited about, with MSU having the worst defense in total yardage allowed in the entire FCS, giving up just under 520 ypg. They do have an excellent kick returner with Deion Holliman leading the conference in punt return average (14.6 per kick) and 5th in the conference in kickoff returns (22.8 yards per kick).

Whoever wins this game will be able the claim that they are not last in the conference this year…but that’s about it, unfortunately. Neither team will be playing in the playoffs and this is each team’s best chance at a conference win…I mean…somebody’s gotta win…right? Both teams have really bad defenses, but I think MSU’s offense is a little better. I think they’ll both give up quite a few points, but it’s at MSU, and it’s their Homecoming game, so I think MSU will come away with the win by a TD.

#22 Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1 MVFC) at #2 North Dakota State

Last Week:

  • Northern Iowa beat Youngstown State, 19-14
  • North Dakota State beat Western Illinois, 24-12

History: The Panthers and Bison have played each other 50 times starting back in 1938, with UNI holding a slim series lead, 24-26. The majority of the Northern Iowa wins came prior to 1960 though, with UNI going 18-4 from ’38-’62. NDSU had a great deal of success in the ’60s and ’70s, winning 13 of the 17 matchups from ’63-’79, and since 1980, have gone 7-4 in the series. The Bison have won the last three meetings, with last year’s game being a 24-20 NDSU win at Cedar Falls.

Northern Iowa had a bit of a rough start to the season, going 1-2 OOC with an OT win against Cal Poly as their only victory. In the MVFC, they beat SIU by 7 then lost to WIU by 9. From that point though, the Panthers have looked like a much better team, demolishing SDSU by 20 and beating last year’s championship runner-up YSU by 5. A big part of this resurgence has been the return (from injury) of RB Marcus Weymiller who has averaged 151 yards and 2 TDs per game in those last two games, which has allowed the UNI offense to become much less one-dimensional. They have also changed up their defensive scheme somewhat in the last couple of games and appears to be much better at stopping the run. In the first 5 games for UNI, they averaged allowing 177.6 ypg on the ground and 31.8 ppg. In their last two games, however (against the strong offense of SDSU and the power run game of YSU), they have only given up a total of 99 yards on the ground and 32 total points…all while holding steady against the pass. In the first 5 games, UNI’s defense averaged 4.4 tackles for loss per game, last two games…10 per game, and in the first 6 games (includes the win over SDSU), they had 6 sacks for 45 yards…against YSU they had 10 sacks for 56 yards. So, to say the UNI defense has stepped up recently would be a HUGE understatement.

North Dakota State is a tough team with the #1 defense in passing yards allowed, total yards allowed, and scoring, and the #4 run defense. They are #2 in scoring and have #4 run game in the FCS. They are one of 4 teams in the FCS who are currently undefeated and have been able to grind out wins against good teams like YSU (in OT) and WIU. Last I heard, NDSU will be without their top RB, Lance Dunn, who was injured in last week’s game against WIU, but it seems like QB Easton Stick has really been playing a lot better the last couple of weeks, so they may not need Dunn as much if Stick keeps going the way he’s been going. Stick had 90 yards and 2 TDs rushing in their first 5 games total, but in the last two games, those same numbers are 233 yards and 3 TDs. WR RJ Urzendowski also had a good game last weekend with 4 catches for 100 yards and a TD. The NDSU defense has been solid all season with the rise of Redshirt Freshman LB Jabril Cox who has 12 tackles w/ 4 for loss (3 sacks) in the last two games, and with the return of SR LB Nick DeLuca following an injury, who has had 16 tackles in the last two games.

These are two very good football teams, with a pretty big rivalry, both playing really their best football of the season. Can the Bison defense stop Weymiller, one of the hottest RBs of the conference right now? Can UNI’s improved run defense stop the exceptional NDSU ground game? Can Northern Iowa continue their hot streak against the toughest team in the toughest conference in the FCS or does North Dakota State continue their unbeaten streak on to 8 games? My view is that a couple of weeks ago, I would have said that UNI wouldn’t fare very well at the Fargodome, but with what they’ve done lately, I think they do stand a much better chance now. Personally though, I think UNI will fall just a bit short. Bison with a 2-point, low-scoring win.

#32 Southern Illinois at #5 South Dakota

Last Week:

  • Southern Illinois won at Indiana State, 45-24
  • South Dakota lost at Illinois State, 37-21

History: The Salukis and Coyotes have played a grand total of 3 games against each other beginning in 2014. SIU holds the 2-1 series lead including winning last year’s contest…a 35-28 Saluki win in Carbondale. In all three matchups, the home team has won.

Southern Illinois has been somewhat “up-and-down” this season, winning their first two games (MVSU & SEMO), losing the next three (FBS Memphis, UNI, SDSU), but then winning the last two games…surprisingly dominantly against Illinois State and then by a solid margin over Indiana State. A bit part of those wins were due to the improvement in the passing game, with SIU putting up 350+ passing yards in both games, when their previous season high was 290 against Memphis. Excluding the MVSU game, the Saluki run game has also been solid, putting up 180-185 yards in both games and with 5 total rushing TDs, as opposed to 2 rushing TDs and a high of 161 yards in the previous 4 games. QB Sam Straub has stepped up, averaging 266 ypg with 20 TDs this season, although he does have a tendency to turn the ball over relatively often, with 9 INTs so far. SIU’s defense is also improving, but is still nowhere near the level of their offense, giving up an average of about 382 ypg and 24 ppg…not horrible, but roughly in the middle of the FCS rankings. They’re led by top-tackler S Ryan Neal with 52 tackles and 3 INTs, and DL Anthony Knighton has the most tackles for loss (7) and sacks (4) on the defense. Punter Lane Reazin is leading the conference (5th in the FCS) in punting average with 45.3 yards per punt.

South Dakota had been surprising just about everyone, winning their first 6 straight games, including wins over FBS Bowling Green, WIU, and YSU before running into Illinois State. Stats-wise, QB Chris Streveler has been a 1-man-army, although he did have his first two INTs of the season against ILSU (which helped contribute to the loss), but he’s still leading the team in passing yards (329 per game), passing TDs (19), rushing yards (68 per game), and rushing TDs (8). In their loss to the Redbirds, the USD run game was held in check, only putting up 114 yards (their lowest of the season). In general though, the Coyotes have a very high-scoring offense, putting up an average of 563 ypg (#1 in FCS) and 43.3 ppg (#3) and a fairly solid defense, allowing 20.7 ppg for opponents. DB Andrew Gray leads the team with 45 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 4 passes defended, and a fumble recovery, and DL Darin Greenfield currently leads the FCS in tackles for loss, with 15 including 5 sacks, in addition to his 32 tackles and 8 QB hurries.

South Dakota has been playing very well at their home dome this season, and I think they should be able to get things back on track against SIU. The Salukis might be able to notch a few scores against the Coyotes, but I think that USD will be able to put up a solid amount more on the SIU defense. Not that you should anyway, but this is REALLY one of those matchups where you can’t look at common opponents/transitive property…SIU beat ILSU by 35 and ILSU beat USD by 16, so SIU should beat USD by 51 points, right?…while it’s theoretically possible, I don’t think SIU will win by even 1/10th that. My prediction, Coyotes rock the Dakota Dome for “Heroes Day” and win by a comfortable 21 points.