AGS Top 25 – How They Fared Week 11 2017

Week 11 results:

Rank Team Week 11 Result
#1 James Madison Dukes Won vs #30 Richmond Spiders 20-13
#2 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Won at Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 14-7
#3 Central Arkansas Bears Won at Incarnate Word 56-10
#4 North Dakota State Bison Won vs #10 South Dakota Coyotes 49-14
#5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits Won vs #21 Illinois State Redbirds 27-24 (OT)
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats Won at Abilene Christian Wildcats 44-35
#7 Elon Phoenix Lost at #27 New Hampshire Wildcats 6-16
#8 Wofford Terriers Won at Virginia Military Institute Keydets 45-14
#9 Southern Utah Thunderbirds Won at UC Davis 47-27
#10 South Dakota Coyotes Lost at #4 North Dakota State Bison 14-49
#11 Stony Brook Seawolves Won vs Wagner Seahawks 38-10
#12 Weber State Wildcats Won at Portland State Vikings 63-17
#13 Western Illinois Leathernecks Won at Indiana State Sycamores 45-0
#14 North Carolina A&T Aggies Won vs Savannah State Tigers 36-17
#15 Furman Paladins Won vs The Citadel Bulldogs 56-20
#16 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Won vs Montana State 37-36
#17 Samford Bulldogs Won vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers 42-7
#18 Western Carolina Catamounts Lost vs Mercer Bears 33-35
#19 Northern Iowa Panthers Won at Missouri State Bears 25-10
#20 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens Won vs Albany Great Danes 22-3
#21 Illinois State Redbirds Lost at #5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24-27 (OT)
#22 Monmouth Hawks Won vs Gardner-Webb Running Bulldogs 41-14
#23 Eastern Washington Eagles Won at North Dakota Fighting Hawks 21-14
#24 McNeese State Cowboys Won vs Northwestern State 44-24
#25 Montana Grizzlies Won vs Northern Colorado Bears 44-14
Next 15
#26 Kennesaw State Owls Won vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers 38-0
#27 New Hampshire Wildcats Won vs #7 Elon Phoenix 16-6
#28 Nicholls State Colonels Won at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 34-13
#29 Grambling State Tigers Won at Alabama State Hornets 24-7
#30 Richmond Spiders Lost at #1 James Madison Dukes 13-20
#31 Yale Bulldogs Won at Princeton Tigers 35-31
#32 North Carolina Central Eagles Lost vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 10-13
#33 (t) Colgate Raiders Won at Lafayette Leopards 27-0
#33 (t) Villanova Wildcats Lost at Rhode Island Rams 6-20
#35 Austin Peay Governors Won at Eastern Kentucky Colonels 31-24
#36 Sacramento State Hornets Won at Cal Poly 49 – 14

 

 

Patriot League: Week 11 Preview

Georgetown (1-8, 0-4) at Bucknell (4-5, 1-3) – Nov. 11th 12 P.M. Christy Mathewson Stadium Lewisburg, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

If Georgetown-Lafayette last week didn’t quite reach high enough on the ugly meter, Georgetown-Bucknell Saturday could ramp things up a peg or two. The Hoyas head to Central Pennsylvania with their offense in complete disarray. Any positive momentum the “O” was riding when Gunther Johnson (50% comp, 153 ypg, 4 TDs 4 INTs) took over as the starter is long gone. The Arizona transfer is coming off his worst game since taking over as the starter (76 yards 4 INTs) so confidence at this point could be an issue. While Bucknell’s defense is not as good as previous editions (25.5 ppg allowed, 3rd in PL), it’s still more than capable of shutting down the Hoya’s “O”. With virtually no rushing attack the Hoyas best chance to put up points is on big plays and short fields. Johnson can’t afford to miss on any opportunities to connect with Michael Dereus downfield. Georgetown has proven incapable of going on lengthy drives all season.

Like Georgetown, Bucknell continues to have issues on offense in league play. After Matt Muh’s subpar performance against Lehigh’s porous defense, Bison Head Coach Joe Susan is once again turning the offense over to Joe Chiarolanzio (111 ypg 4 TDs 5 INTs). The lack of production through the air has been an issue for the last 2+ seasons. What’s made this year’s offense especially weak is the lack of a rushing attack (53.3 ypg, 120th in FCS). Freshnock was able to break loose (174 yards 3 TDs) last week against Lehigh (who hasn’t?) and Joey DeFloria is expected to play after battling an injury in recent weeks so there is some reason for optimism heading into the weekend. Even with DeFloria and Freshnock in the backfield Bucknell’s offensive line must deal with a very capable Hoya front 7. BU must pay special attention to Hoya DE is Khristian Tate. The sophomore is making a strong case (10.5 TFL, 5.5 Sacks, 2 FF) for All-League honors.

This game really comes down to Bucknell’s offense being slightly better than Georgetown’s. With the return of DeFloria and the added emotion of being at home on Senior Day, the Bison should have the upper hand. The key will be avoiding turnovers, a big problem all season, and getting the DeFloria/Freshnock duo rolling. This game likely won’t be 7-0 but it still won’t rack up any points on aesthetic scoreboard.

Prediction: Bucknell 17 Georgetown 10

Colgate (5-4, 3-1) at Lafayette (3-6, 3-1) – Nov. 11th 12:30 P.M. Fisher Stadium Easton, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

First place is on the line this Saturday when red hot Colgate rolls into College Hill to face Lafayette. The Red Raiders are coming off their bye week so they enter this crucial late season showdown well rested. Prior to their bye Colgate outscored their 3 league opponents by a whopping 101 points, 123-22. Grant Breneman’s emergence at quarterback has made a world of difference for the Raider offense. The “O” was a no go the first 4 games of the year but since the Cornell game in late September the unit has been extremely impressive due to its balance (181 ypg rushing, 166 ypg passing). Colgate has still remained a run first team as they’ve rushed the ball 170 more times than they’ve aired it out. Lafayette’s staunch defense (7.5 ppg allowed in PL play) will easily be facing their toughest test since the non-conference portion of the schedule.

The most “obvious observation” in this game is stating that Lafayette must score to win (9.5 ppg in PL play). The Leopard’s anemic offense reached a new level of futility last week against Georgetown but amazingly their lone TD was good enough to capture a 7-0 win. The main issue remains a rushing attack that currently ranks 122nd (25 ypg) in FCS. The Leopards have played 9 games and their leading rusher DeSean Brown has 123 yards! The reality is, Lafayette has struggled to run the ball since Ross Scheuerman last suited in 2014. As a result of the anemic ground attack freshman QB Sean O’Malley has had to carry the entire offense while playing behind an offensive line that continues to struggle. If the Leopards want to keep their title hopes alive O’Malley needs to make timely throws and avoid big mistakes. Colgate’s front 7, led by Pat Afriyie, will put a lot of pressure on the Leopard signal caller. The key is surviving the rush and get the ball in the hands of his talented pass catchers. If Lafayette can put up 17+ points they might have a chance.

While on paper this is a huge game in the race for Patriot League Championship there’s a sense it will be rather anticlimactic because Colgate has proven to be the much better team to this point of the season. The fact that Lafayette is competing for the league title in Mid-November alone is a tremendous accomplishment for 1st year Head Coach John Garrett. Look for Colgate to win a methodical battle and ensure they’re playing for at least a share of the league title in the final week.

Prediction: Colgate 27 Lafayette 10

Holy Cross (4-6, 3-2) at Lehigh (3-6, 3-1) – Nov. 11th 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Arguably, the two most inconsistent teams in the Patriot League this season square off on Saturday when the Crusaders invade the Lehigh Valley to take on the Mountain Hawks. Despite all the ups and downs, Lehigh is still two victories away from clinching at least a share of the Patriot League Title and its second straight playoff appearance. The Mountain Hawks are coming off a throttling of Bucknell which was easily their most complete game of the year. Lehigh was able to force 4 turnovers and the defense gave up the fewest total yards (342) and points (21) all season in the win. The “D” will need to carry the momentum and positive mojo over to this week if they want to hold down the far more potent Crusader offense. Peter Pujals is likely the best quarterback Lehigh has faced this season. The 5th year senior is coming off a great performance against Fordham where he demonstrated the ability to efficiently carve up a defense with his arm (175 yards, 2 TDs) and his legs (82 yards).

Holy Cross is trying to end their season on a 3 game winning streak which would likely give them a 2nd place finish in the final Patriot League standings. The Crusaders have shown quite a bit of fight on both sides of the ball under Interim Coach Brian Rock in recent weeks. Holy Cross showed their potential early in the year before falling into a bizarre malaise that ultimately cost Tom Gilmore his job. As their season comes to an end this week (week 12 bye), the team that started the year seems to have reappeared, at least to a point. The Crusaders put forth a very good performance against Fordham last week in a dominating 42-20 win. The win meant there was a 62 point turnaround from last year’s train wreck (54-14 loss) at Yankee Stadium. Holy Cross unleashed a rushing attack (354 yards) that had not been seen since 2013. Coming off such a performance, Gabe Guild, Miles Alexander and Peter Pujals have to be licking their chops as they set to face the 119th ranked (249.5 ypg allowed) rush defense in FCS.

Lehigh thumped Holy Cross 46-14 last year in Worcester in a game that Pujals didn’t play in. After reversing the 2016 Fordham debacle last week on the road, one of the all-time great Crusader’s quarterbacks has to be eyeing a final measure of revenge to close out his college career. Lehigh’s offense will put up points as usual but their defense will once again prove it’s not championship material. Pujals gets the last laugh against the Mountain Hawks.

Prediction: Holy Cross 47 Lehigh 31

 

 

MVFC – Week 11 Preview

MVFC LogoWeek 11 in the FCS season…the penultimate weekend for all but 24 teams. Up to 6 MVFC teams could theoretically be playing after Thanksgiving. I don’t believe any conference has ever had 6 teams in the playoffs before, so that seems pretty unlikely, but stranger things have happened. Two of the games involve matchups of two teams that are in that 6-team “possible playoffs” group, with one involving two top-10 ranked teams.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings and all stats listed are only in MVFC play from here on out (unless otherwise stated).

So, here are the games this week:
12:00 PM – #13 Western Illinois (6-3, 3-3 MVFC) at Indiana State (0-9, 0-6 MVFC)
1:00 PM – Youngstown State (4-5, 2-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (4-5, 2-4 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #21 Illinois State (6-3, 4-2 MVFC) at #5 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-2 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #19 Northern Iowa (5-4, 4-2 MVFC) at Missouri State (3-6, 2-4 MVFC)
2:30 PM – #10 South Dakota (7-2, 4-2 MVFC) at #4 North Dakota State (8-1, 5-1 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

#13 Western Illinois at Indiana State

Last Week:

  • Western Illinois won at Illinois State, 31-14
  • Indiana State lost to Youngstown State, 66-24

History:
The Leathernecks and Sycamores have faced off 40 times starting in 1967, with Western holding the 25-15 advantage. WIU has won the last 4 games against INSU. Last year’s game was a 1-point Homecoming win where the game was back and forth until Western took the lead for good on a 41-yard Nathan Knuffman FG with just under 12 minutes left in the game. The last game played at Terre Haute was WIU QB Sean McGuire’s “coming out party” where he threw for 332 yards and 1 TD and ran for 28 yards and 1 TD in an OT victory.

Western Illinois is coming of a huge win over in-state rival Illinois State to set them up well for a strong push at the end of the season. Within the MVFC, the Leathernecks are averaging, on both sides of the ball, 31.2 points per game. Their weakness has primarily been at defending the pass, although they switched up some new people at a few positions for the game against the Redbirds and were much more effective at stopping that aspect of ILSU’s game. One example of this is Soph DB Mike Viti, who has played in all but one game this season, but has been used sparingly until last weekend when he had 8 tackles and a couple of pass breakups (including a spectacular one that prevented a HUGE ILSU completion…possibly TD). On offense, WIU relies a bit more on the pass, although they have been effective at running when necessary for short gains. WR Jaelon Acklin still leads the conference in receiving yards with 142.5 ypg, although Western was also effective against Illinois State by mixing things up and going to different receivers at times. Both WIU FG kickers (Sam Crosa for shorter kicks, Nathan Erickson for longer kicks) are still perfect on the season with FGs.

Indiana State was completely steamrolled last weekend by Youngstown State. At 0-9, they’re obviously WAY out of the playoff picture at this point, but they could still play spoiler to a couple of teams who are still in the hunt. INSU is last in the MVFC in both points allowed (50.3 ppg) and points scored (14.5 ppg). They are last in rushing and passing on both sides of the ball as well. That being said, they do have a few key players at positions that can turn a game around if the opposition isn’t careful. RB LeMonte Booker is averaging just under 78 ypg and has 3 TDs in MVFC action and had 167 yards against YSU last weekend. TE Jaquet McClendon has around 58 ypg and 2 TDs including 101 yards against YSU. WR Bob Pugh has caught for just over 55 ypg and 1 TD as well as handling kick and punt return duties for the Sycamores.

Western is obviously favored in this game by quite a bit, but when you have a situation where you’re coming off a huge win over a big rival and the other team is a MVFC team with essentially nothing to lose, that’s when Admiral Ackbar shows up. The Leathernecks need to treat this game at ISU like last week’s game at ISU…pressure the QB, force turnovers, and get the win. I think that INSU might keep it close in the first half, but WIU seems to crank it up a notch in the second half and will pull away, eventually winning by about 30.

Youngstown State (4-5, 2-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois

Last Week:

  • Youngstown State won at Indiana State, 66-24
  • Southern Illinois lost to Missouri State, 36-28

History:
The Penguins and Salukis have faced off 28 times starting in 1965. YSU holds a 12-15-1 series lead and won last year’s meeting, 21-14, in Ohio.

Last week, Youngstown State’s #3 QB (and part-time WR) Ricky Davis demolished the Sycamore defense with a total of 447 offensive yards and 6 TDs en route to putting up their highest point total ever against a MVFC foe (66 points). Prior to that game, the “revolving door” of their QB position was “leading” their offense to a “whopping” 24.4 ppg average, so I think it’s fair to say that this combination seemed to outperform expectations and makes it hard to use previous stats to evaluate things. Then again, it was Indiana State and, as previously mentioned, they are ranked last in the conference in most defensive categories. However you look at it, the Penguins do have a solid ground game, with RB Tevin McCaster averaging 77 ypg with 7 TDs rushing. On the other side of the ball, YSU is pretty good against the pass, ranking 3rd in the conference, but they have been giving up 188 ypg against the run. LB Armand Dellovade leads the team with 51 tackles against MVFC teams w/ 2 sacks, and they have a couple of decent safeties with Kyle Hegedus and Jalyn Powell, but the D-Line just isn’t what it was last year (I mean…how could it be when they lost two NFL-level linemen).

Southern Illinois was looking like they had an outside chance at a playoff spot…that is, until their starting QB Sam Straub, the brightest part of their offense, suffered a season-ending broken hand injury a couple of weeks ago. In last week’s game, both QB Tanner Hearn and Safety Matt DeSomer were given a chance to take over the QB role and while DeSomer actually led the team in rushing with 74 yards and Hearn was able to throw 3 TDs, they still weren’t able to put together the win over “bottom half” team Missouri State. The Saluki defense isn’t too bad against the pass, with S Ryan Neal leading the team with 47 tackles in MVFC games, but like Youngstown State, is not great against the run.

So, we’ve got two teams, neither of which will be playing in the playoffs this year. I think that if SIU had a healthy Straub at QB, then the two teams would probably be fairly equal, but without that offensive spark, I think YSU has the advantage. YSU’s offense should be able to pretty much move the ball at will against a soft SIU D-line. Penguins by 7.

#21 Illinois State at #5 South Dakota State

Last Week:

  • Illinois State lost to Western Illinois, 31-14
  • South Dakota State beat North Dakota State, 33-21

History: The Redbirds and Jackrabbits have met 7 times starting in 2008. ILSU has the 4-3 series lead and last year’s matchup was a 38-21 Redbird victory in Normal.

Illinois State really needs one more win to be in the playoff picture. They were hoping that win could come against in-state rival Western Illinois last Saturday, but that was not to be. So now, the Redbirds are looking to try to “steal” at least one win out of their last two against two of the top teams in the conference. Illinois State’s biggest strength is their defense. Despite giving up 31 points to WIU last weekend, they’re still averaging under 20 ppg allowed. This is primarily due to them only allowing just over 115 yards per game on the ground. Passing teams can get a little more traction though, with ISU giving up 245 ypg through the air. LB Tyree Horton is the team’s tackles leader with 41 tackles in 6 MVFC games and 1.5 sacks. DB Davontae Harris gets in on 37 tackles w/ 2 sacks, 2 INTs and 6 pass breakups against MVFC teams. The Redbird offense is in the top half of the conference for total yardage and for rushing and passing individually, but not in scoring, so they have a bit of trouble converting ball movement to points. RB James Robinson is one of only two MVFC rushers who are averaging over 100 ypg in MVFC games and has 6 TDs, and RB Markel Smith is a young (Soph) talent who adds in just a bit over 53 ypg and 2 TDs. He also handles some of the kick return duties, although I don’t know if he’ll be 100% this week after getting briefly knocked out following a severe hit on a kickoff return last weekend. WRs Christian Gibbs and Spencer Schnell are both averaging between 83 and 90 ypg in MVFC games and each have 3 receiving TDs.

South Dakota State has already reached 7 wins and with the win last weekend over North Dakota State, should be considered a near lock for the playoffs. What they’re playing for the rest of the season is a good playoff seed, which would allow them to not have to be funneled through Fargo again in the postseason. The Jackrabbits have the best scoring offense in the MVFC, putting 36.8 ppg on the board against fellow MVFC teams. Their passing offense is led by QB Taryn Christion, who is throwing for over 281 ypg with 16 TDs and only 3 INTs. TE Dallas Goedert is having a stellar year, currently one of only two MVFC players with over 100 ypg. He also has 3 TDs. WR Jake Wieneke is having, for him, a down year, averaging only ~61 ypg and has 6 TDs in conference play. They also have a solid O-Line, having allowed only 7 sacks. SDSU has had some struggles this year at preventing the run, currently ranked 7th in the conference and allowing 180 ypg on the ground. LB Christian Rozeboom is their best defensive player, averaging 11 tackles per game, second only behind WIU’s Brett Taylor. Despite their issues with the run game, they were able to hold NDSU, one of the top running teams in the FCS, to only 108 rushing yards last weekend, so they do have the ability to play at a higher level at times.

Illinois State has been rather up and down this season and were able to slow down the offense of South Dakota, but also got beat by strong passing teams like Northern Arizona, Southern Illinois, and Western Illinois. The teams that beat South Dakota State however, were teams that had pretty good running games and good pass defenses…although…they did beat NDSU last weekend. I feel like Illinois State has a bit more to play for this week, needing a win to get into the playoffs, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to overcome a hot Jackrabbits team. On the other hand…like WIU at INSU after WIU’s big emotional win last weekend…this has the makings of a “trap game”. I guess what I’m saying is that this one feels really hard for me to pick. I gotta go with one though, and I think Coach Stig is experienced enough to not allow his guys to fall into the trap of having a “letdown” after the NDSU game, so I say the Jackrabbits win this one by a Dallas Goedert TD reception…7 points.

#19 Northern Iowa at Missouri State

Last Week:

  • Northern Iowa beat South Dakota, 34-29
  • Missouri State won at Southern Illinois, 36-28

History: The Panthers and Bears have met on the gridiron 37 times starting in 1980. UNI has a dominating 32-5 lead in the all-time series and have won the last 11 matchups. Last year game was actually a close one though, with UNI pulling out a 38-35 win in Cedar Falls.

Northern Iowa started the season somewhat rough, going 2-3 in their first 5 games before even getting to the toughest part of their schedule and was looking like they might not make the playoffs this year. But then, the Panthers turned things around with wins over SDSU and YSU. A loss to NDSU put them essentially with their backs against the wall heading into a tough matchup with South Dakota…but the Panthers were able to pull out a big win and now finish out the season with two (should be) much easier opponents. If they win both games, there’s a high probability they’ll be playing postseason football. UNI hasn’t had a stellar offense most of the season, but have had strong performances from RB Marcus Weymiller, who currently leads the MVFC with 110 ypg against MVFC teams and was out for the first 5 games. One area where they have had success most of the season is with their run defense, led by LB Jared Farley with 57 tackles and 1 sack in conference and with heavy pressure behind the line of scrimmage by LB Rickey Neal (12 TFLs including 7.5 sacks…both #1 in the MVFC). A couple of solid DBs (Malcolm Washington and Elijah Campbell) round out backfield with tackle numbers in the 40s and 5 total INTs between the two of them in MVFC games.

Missouri State picked up their third win of the season last week against an SIU team that hadn’t been doing too badly until their QB was knocked out for the season with a broken hand. They’ve shown some signs of offensive life throughout the season, but have struggled in giving up points, allowing the second-most amount to MVFC teams with 38.5 ppg average. Primarily, this is against the ground game, with MSU allowing 214 ypg rushing, 2nd to last in the MVFC although DL Colby Isbell is tied for second in the conference with 4 sacks in MVFC games so far and has 4 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery. The Bears offense is weighted heavily towards their ground attack, which is the only MVFC school over 200 ypg running the ball (against MVFC opponents), with a 206.5 average. QB Peyton Huslig is the team’s primary runner, with 80 ypg and 2 TDs, and RB Jason Randall has 52 ypg and 4 TDs. Probably the biggest “game changer” for the Bears though, is WR and return specialist Deion Holliman who leads the MVFC in both kick returns (23.4 yards per return) and punt returns (14.4 yards per return, and there’s nobody else in the conference even in double digits). He’s also had a punt return TD, so Holliman does have the ability to get MSU in good field position at times.

Northern Iowa is playing some of their best football of the year right now and need to win out to make the playoffs. Missouri State, however, really doesn’t have much to play for other than pride. It is Senior Day for MSU, but I think that the newfound running offense of the Panthers will be able to plow through MSU’s porous run defense. Decent kick returns by Holliman might get them in position for a score or two, but UNI has a pretty decent defense and I think they’ll be able to hold the scoring to a minimal amount. I think that UNI will come away with their 6th win of the year, 12th in a row against MSU, and put them in a good position to finish out the season strong. I think it’ll be Northern Iowa by 17.

#10 South Dakota at #4 North Dakota State

Last Week:

  • South Dakota lost at Northern Iowa, 34-29
  • North Dakota State lost at South Dakota State, 33-21

History: The Coyotes (kai-oats) and Bison (bi-zon) have met up 81 times starting back in 1903. NDSU has the series lead at 53-26-2 and have won 8 out of the last 10 matchups. Actually, since 1988, NDSU has won 20 out of the 22 games. Last year’s game was a 28-21 Bison victory in Vermillion.

South Dakota started the season by winning their first 6 straight games and were looking like they’d sail into the playoffs for the first time as a DI team. But then, a big loss at Illinois State and a big win over Southern Illinois…a win that seriously banged up their primary offensive weapon, QB Chris Streveler…led to another loss at Northern Iowa. Now South Dakota is in a situation where they do have 7 wins, but I could actually see a scenario where they miss out on the playoffs if they happen to lose the last two games of the season, especially if they aren’t all that competitive in them. Considering the games are against two of the strongest teams in the conference, they have a bit of a hill to climb to prove that they’re playoff-worthy. There’s no denying that USD has the strongest passing offense in the conference, putting up over 340 ypg (nearly 60 ahead of #2) led by Streveler, who has thrown 14 TDs and 4 INTs and also runs for 41 ypg and has two rushing TDs in MVFC play. He’s been getting banged up quite a bit throughout the season, although it seems like the last few games it’s really started to take it’s toll on him, sitting out most of the SIU game (he probably could have played after halftime if they really needed him…they didn’t), and then being visibly not quite 100% against UNI. The Coyotes have been fairly decent on defense, holding MVFC teams to 23 ppg and have been a little stronger against the run than they have been against the pass. They’re #2 in the conference with 18 sacks in their 6 conference games with three defensive players averaging over 1 sack every 2 games. DB Andrew Gray leads the team in tackles with 43 and DL Darin Greenfield is second in the conference in Tackles for Loss with 8 in 6 games.

North Dakota State also started the season on a hot streak, although theirs lasted a little longer than South Dakota’s. NDSU won their first 8 in a row before falling last weekend to rival SDSU. In pretty much all defensive categories, NDSU is the #1 team in the conference. LB Nick DeLuca has returned from an early season injury to become the team’s top tackler, averaging 6.8 tackles per game, which doesn’t sound like much, but there’s so many good defensive players on the Bison squad that everyone seems to get in on the action, so the “huge numbers” are spread around a bit more than you usually see on most teams. FS Trey Dempsey leads the conference in INTs with 4 in their 6 conference games, and Safeties Robbie Grimsley and James Hendricks have 2 each. Offensively, NDSU has been down a little the last couple of games with top RB Lance Dunn being out with an injury. SDSU was able to force QB Easton Stick into an uncharacteristically bad game where he threw 3 INTs, was sacked 3 times, and had a fumble, but in general, Stick has been very efficient and effective for most of the season. RB Bruce Anderson has picked up some of the slack of Dunn’s absense, but isn’t quite on Lance’s level, rushing for 70 ypg and 2 TDs against MVFC teams.

Outside of the 2013 “Perfect Season”, every year back to 2011 NDSU has lost 1 game in the regular season…only 1. NDSU hasn’t lost back-to-back games since 2009, when they were just starting to get their feet in the MVFC and finished 3-8 overall…if there’s one thing NDSU knows how to do (other than winning), it’s recovering from the rare loss. Oh…and Carson Wentz will be in the house…along with the family of Lukas Kusters (If you don’t know the story, grab a box of tissues and go watch this). Streveler is banged up and not playing at 100%…and I just don’t see this going well for South Dakota in this situation. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout…USD is still a really good team…but I don’t see the Bison losing this one. I think North Dakota State by 12.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1107 – WEEK 11 PREVIEW

Kris & Lance have two themes going throughout this show. One is potential upsets in trap games and the other is how any of these games can affect playoff chances for each of these teams.

Games they look forward to are:

Elon Phoenix @ New Hampshire Wildcats

South Dakota Yotes @ NDSU Bizon

Illinois State Redbirds @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Charleston Southern Buccaneers @ Kennesaw State

Central Connecticut State @ Duquesne

Potential trap games to possibly keep an eye on…

Richmond @ James Madison

Southern Utah @ UC-Davis

*Lance climbs way out on a limb and tells you why it is possible that Missouri State could cause Northern Iowa some trouble after the gauntlet UNI has just been through.

Possible does not mean “bet the farm” by the way. I do not want a bunch of NDSU guys losing their homesteads over this one.

Click the play button and let the “What iffing” begin.

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The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket – Week 10

Here is a playoff bracket based on current standings off the AGS Top 25 Poll.  Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both at larges and the seeds given the poll has been the most predictable at picking at larges and just this last week the AGS poll was in line exactly with the selection committee’s top 8. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess for automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines in the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together in the same format as the committee will use.

Link http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/fi…l_20170914.pdf

The Bracket

2017 FCS PLAYOFFS
First Round Second Round Quarterfinal Semifinal Championship Game
James Madison 1
Delaware Frisco, TX
Duquesne
Wofford 8
Furman
Southern Utah
South Dakota St 5
South Dakota
Weber St
North Dakota St 4
Stony Brook
Colgate
Central Arkansas 3 AnyGivenSaturday.com
Northern Iowa
Illinois St
Sam Houston State 6
Northern Arizona
San Diego
Elon 7
Western Carolina
Western Illinois
Jackonville St 2
Samford
Kennesaw State

The last four in (in order): Western Carolina, Northern Iowa, Delaware, Illinois St

The first four out (in order): Monmouth, Eastern Washington, McNeese St, Montana

Next four out (again, in order): New Hampshire, Nicholls St, Richmond, North Carolina Central

The seeds this week get a little bumped around with North Dakota St and South Dakota losing sending NDSU down to 4 and USD out of the seeded round. South Dakota St moves into the seeds at 5 flipping a popular bracket showing in Vermillion now in Brookings. Southern Utah is the first team out of the seeds and the highest ranked Big Sky team. It’s quite possible if they win out and someone ahead loses they may sneak into the seeded 8.

At larges, Monmouth was our first team out. Illinois State was the last team in. Given we are predicting Kennesaw St wins the Big South that would be quite the debate between the MVFC getting a 6th team in the bracket and a Big South squad that has won a lot of football games just not their conference. Also, North Carolina A&T would be well within the bracket, but as the MEAC projected winner and a celebration bowl participate they would not be in the bracket. If they lose finishing out the season they would probably be in the bracket erasing that ISU/Monmouth debate.

Also of note, both Southland squads McNeese St and Nicholls St look to finish the season with decent records. Both are out at the moment, but I’d expect quite the debate given both conference mates are seeded in the current bracket.

Conference Breakdown and First teams out

Auto Bids At larges
Big Sky Southern Utah Weber St
Northern Ariz
Big South Kennesaw St
CAA James Madison Elon
Stony Brook
Delaware
MVFC North Dakota St South Dakota St
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Northern Iowa
Illinois St
NEC Duquesne
OVC Jacksonville St
Patriot Colgate
Pioneer San Diego
Southern Wofford Furman
Samford
Western Carolina
Southland Central Arkansas Sam Houston St
First four out Next four out
Monmouth New Hampshire
Eastern Washington Nicholls St
McNeese St Richmond
Montana North Carolina Central

 

This will obviously change next week with new results.

Patriot League: Week 10 Review an Power Rankings

Week 10 of the Patriot League season was highlighted by Lafayette and Lehigh keeping their title hopes alive and Chase Edmonds finally capturing the All-Time PL rushing record. Unfortunately for Edmonds, his Ram squad was dominated in the second half in a 42-20 loss to Holy Cross. Speaking of dominating, Lafayette’s defense did just that in their Royal Rumblesque 7-0 win over Georgetown. Meanwhile, Lehigh’s dumpster fire of a “D” played its best game of the year their Mountain Hawks 41-20 win over Bucknell.

Lehigh 42 Bucknell 21

Lehigh (3-6, 3-1) kept their Patriot League title hopes alive and ruined Bucknell’s (4-5, 1-3) Homecoming with a decisive 42-21 win on a picture perfect early November afternoon. It was the Mountain Hawk’s 18th win in the last 20 meetings against the Bison. Lehigh was able to force two 1st quarter turnovers (4 for the game) which propelled them to a commanding 28-7 lead after the opening 15 minutes of play. Outside of Freshnock (16 carries 174 yards 3 TDs) being the latest running back to shred the Lehigh defense, Bucknell struggled on both sides of the ball for much of the game. The 342 (198 rushing, 144 passing) yards of total offense Bucknell amassed were amazingly the fewest the Lehigh “D” surrendered all season. The Mountain Hawks did a really good job getting after Bison QB Matt Muh early and often. As a result of the improved pressure, Muh never found his rhythm which caused the senior to struggle (22-37 144 yards 2 INTs) in his first start since 2016.

Both teams punted on their opening possessions of game. On Bucknell’s second drive Lehigh LB Matt Walker delivered a hard hit on Muh at the Bison 34 yard line which caused a fumble. Walker then alertly picked the ball up and raced towards the end zone before being shoved out of bounds at the 9 yard line. Two plays later, Brad Mayes (17-25 193 yards 2 TDs 1 INT) found Gatlin Casey in the corner of the end zone for an 8 yard TD. It would not take long for Bucknell to respond. On Bison’s ensuing possession Chad Freshnock busted loose for an 85 yard TD run (5th longest in BU history) to even the score with 8:49 left in the 1st quarter. Lehigh would continue the scoring bonanza 16 seconds later when Central Pennsylvania native Dom Bragalone (21 carries 136 yards 3 TDs) broke free for a 44 yard TD. Bucknell’s Stefone Moore-Green would fumble the kickoff return which would be recovered by Lehigh’s Brian Olshanski. 4 plays later Bragalone added his second TD of the day to extend the Lehigh lead to 21-7. Back-up running back Micco Brisker’s 22 yard TD run at the 1:03 mark would close out the 1st quarter scoring for Lehigh.

Freshnock’s 23 yard TD run and Bragalone’s 29 yard TD scamper would be the only scoring in the 2nd quarter. When the first 30 minutes was over Lehigh owned a commanding 35-14 lead. The Mountain Hawks wouldn’t completely put the game away until late in the 3rd quarter. That’s when Mayes’s hit Casey for a 47 yard TD on a deep post pattern to push the score to 42-14.

Up Next: Lehigh’s next hurdle in their attempt to repeat as league champs is Holy Cross at Goodman Stadium. Meanwhile, after two ugly losses Bucknell will try to get back to .500 against the downtrodden Georgetown Hoyas.

Holy Cross 42 Fordham 20

Holy Cross’s (4-6, 3-2) return trip to the Bronx was much more successful than last year’s embarrassment (54-14 loss) at Yankee Stadium. The pride of Worcester reclaimed the Crusader-Ram Cup with a 22 point win over Fordham (3-7, 2-3) by using a dominating rushing attack (354 yards). The defense also contributed in a big way. Nick McBeath’s scoop and score 61 yard TD on Fordham’s first possession helped set an early tone for the Crusaders. The lone bright spot for Fordham on the afternoon was Chase Edmonds return and his subsequent record breaking run. The once in a generation talent was finally able to reach the top of the All-Time Patriot League rushing rankings (Edmonds 5,677 passed Jordan Scott 5,621) after battling through an ankle injury for the majority of the season.

After falling behind 7-0 the Rams leaned on Edmonds (20 carries 63 yards 2 TDs) in the 1st half to keep them in the game which he did. His two early 2nd quarter touchdowns (10 yards, 7 yards) gave Fordham a 14-7 lead with 10:29 left before half. Unfortunately, the positive mojo wouldn’t last long as Anderson was knocked out of the game midway through 2nd quarter and was replaced by Austin King (10-16 173 yards 1 TD 1 INT). The Rams would remain in the lead until Gabe Guild (10 carries 107 yards 1 TD) capped an 8 play 66 yard drive with a game tying 15 yard TD run with less than 3 minutes remaining in the first half.

Holy Cross’s offense would take control of the game in second half. The Crusaders opened the 3rd quarter with a 7 play 76 yard TD (Miles Alexander 40 yard TD run) drive that gave them their first lead (21-14) of the day. The Crusaders extended their advantage to 28-14 on Peter Pujals’s (15-25 175 yards 2 TDs) 1 yard TD toss to Jayke Simsheuser with 3:35 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Pujals’s 24 yard TD pass to Blaise Bell early in the 4th quarter made the score 35-15 and effectively put the game out of reach.

Up Next: Holy Cross concludes their 2017 season with a trip to Bethlehem, PA to take on Lehigh. Fordham is on a late season bye before concluding their season against Bucknell on the 18th.

Lafayette 7 Georgetown 0

Lafayette’s (3-6, 2-1) 7-0 win over Georgetown (1-8, 0-4) didn’t disappoint when it came to ugliness and offensive ineptness. Two of the very worst offenses in FCS put on a pillow fight that only the true die-hards could enjoy. Neither team surpassed 200 yards of total offense and each managed a mere 12 first downs during the 60 minutes of “action”. Hoya quarterback Gunther Johnson had an especially horrible outing (12-26 76 yards 4 INTs) in the loss. The Arizona transfer had shown quite a bit of potential when he took over for an injured Tim Barnes in early October but has been regressing in recent weeks. If Georgetown is to have any shot at avoiding the league O’fer, Johnson and the rest of the offense need to step-up and make plays. The coaches have to be willing to take some chances too. Sgarlatte and company made some extremely conservative, borderline suspect, calls against Lafayette in key situations. The Hoyas have literally nothing to lose at this point so it’s time to go for broke.

Lafayette still controls their destiny in the race for the Patriot League Title and auto-bid into the playoffs thanks to their defense (allowing 7.5 points in PL play). The unit notched Lafayette’s first shutout since 2007 and Georgetown did not reach Leopard territory until the 4th quarter in the 7-0 win. The pass defense had been the strength of the unit all season and they were again against the Hoyas (76 yards passing, 4 INTs). The leader in the secondary is Phil Parham. The senior snatched his league leading 6th interception against the Hoyas.

For as good as their defense has been in recent weeks the Leopards still have to score points. Sean O’Malley’s (17-25 101 yards 1 TD) 11 yard TD pass to Pearson with 4:31 left in the 2nd quarter was good enough to beat the Hoyas won’t cut it against Colgate and Lehigh. If Lafayette wants to shock the league by winning their final two games O’Malley must lead the charge. The freshman has the weapons on the outside to be effective if the offensive line gives him time. The big uglies have to because the 9.5 ppg the Leopards have been averaging will result in a 0-2 finish to the season.

Up Next: Lafayette hosts Colgate in an elimination game for the Patriot League Title. Georgetown heads to Lewisburg, PA to take on Bucknell in what figures to be another low scoring slugfest.

Power Rankings

  1. Colgate – The Raiders enjoyed a late season bye to prepare for a huge game against Lafayette. Assuming Colgate didn’t take a week long nap, the Leopards figure to be in big trouble.
  2. Lehigh – The Mountain Hawks are here by default at this point. Their offense continues to rack up points while their defense makes opposing running backs look like Barry Sanders each week.
  3. Holy Cross – Brian Rock’s club has now won two straight and can close out their season by ending Lehigh’s title hopes. Pujals’s last game in purple could be a special one.
  4. Lafayette – The Leopards still sit on top of the league standings but with Colgate invading Easton this weekend that figures to change.
  5. Fordham – That was terrible performance against Fordham. Losing Anderson was a major blow but the energy from the Lehigh win did not carry over one bit.
  6. Bucknell – The offense is in disarray and the usually stout defense is giving up points in bunches. The Bison still have a shot at a winning record but it won’t be easy.
  7. Georgetown – The 7-0 loss to Lafayette pretty much sums up Hoya football at this point. Close, yet so far away…..

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1107 – WEEK 10 REVIEW

This show is of course gonna lean heavily in the favor of the playoffs and how we see it AS OF THIS MOMENT and then a little talk about what could hold true for the very near future.

There is a really good playoff discussion to be had from two guys that really know what they are talking about. I wish we had those guys but Kris & Lance give us their take on it.

They also go over a few big games from last weekend that we all should know a little something about.

South Dakota State 33 North Dakota State 21

Northern Iowa 34 South Dakota 29

Western Illinois 31 Illinois State 14

Montana 17 NAU 15

Weber State 28 Eastern Washington 20

Kennesaw State 16 Montana State 14

Central Connecticut State 28 St Francis 21

*This is an EE show

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Big Sky Round Up Week 10

The top of the Big Sky standings got pretty shaken up this week with two top teams going down. This is the time of season where the conference haves and have-nots start to separate themselves into who is going to be playing in the post season.

The Big Sky week started off in Bozeman with the visiting Kennesaw State Owls making the nearly cross country road trip to take on the Bobcats. Kennesaw State, a third year program from Georgia and ranked in the FCS top 25, presented a few new wrinkles for the Bobcats. The Owls, who run a triple option style offense, started the game with an eight and a half minute drive and ended with a touchdown. The Owls piled up 346 yards rushing and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in a two point victory. Montana State got a touchdown from Chris Murray on the ground, and a touchdown pass to Mitchell Herbert for their only scores. After Kennesaw’s opening touchdown they’d ride three field goals from Justin Thompson to victory. The Bobcats will face off with Northern Arizona in Flagstaff next week.

Weber State, fresh off of a win over Montana took a trip to the Palouse to take on Eastern Washington. The Eagles, who are clinging to their playoff hopes, needed a win over Weber State to keep them alive. The Wildcats, on the other hand, had other thoughts in mind. Treshawn Garrett had a pair of touchdowns from Stefan Cantwell to get the Wildcats going. In all Cantwell had three touchdown passes and 230 yards to lead the Wildcats. Post-game, it was announced that Eastern Washington quarterback Gage Gabrud will miss next week’s game due to a violation of team rules. Weber State gets a win to remain at the top of the Big Sky standings. Weber State will head to Portland to take on Portland State. Eastern Washington will make the trip to Grand Forks to take on North Dakota.

UC-Davis is looking to turn in one of their best seasons since joining the Big Sky and looked to keep that going with a game at Idaho State. The Bengals, also having a good year by Bengal standards needed to slow down the Aggie offense to have any chance in this one. That chance quickly disappeared when Jake Maier got the ball in his hands and led three scoring drives in the first quarter, the Aggies quickly up 21-0. The Bengals would get on the board early in the second quarter, however, that didn’t really matter because UC-Davis didn’t look back. Maier piled up 358 yards and three scores, while Justin Williams had two rushing scores for the Aggies. UC-Davis will host Southern Utah, while Idaho State will have a bye.

Southern Utah kept making their case for the Big Sky’s autobid later this month by dismantling North Dakota in Cedar City this weekend. Patrick Tyler had a nice game for the Thunderbirds, throwing for 310 yards and two scores. Jay Green had 62 yards and three scores on the ground. North Dakota never made this game interesting. John Santiago turned in a 115 yard effort for the Fighting Hawks, with a score but wasn’t enough to help the Hawks effort. Southern Utah will travel to UC-Davis to take on the potent Aggies offense, while North Dakota will host Eastern Washington.

Sacramento State seems to have found their scoring groove. This week they got to put their offense to the test against Northern Colorado. The Bears have been reeling for a lot of the season, but even moreso since starting quarterback Jacob Knipp got injured. Hornet quarterback Roman Ale had a pair of touchdown passes. However, the Hornets rode a 333 yard rushing effort from their trio of backs to put their foot down on the Bears. Elijah Dotson had 124 yards and two scores to lead all rushers. The Hornets were also aided by three Northern Colorado turnovers. Sacramento State will head to Cal Poly to take on the Mustangs, while Northern Colorado will be at Montana.

Montana was smarting after a loss at Weber State last week, and this week didn’t get any easier as they took on the Big Sky’s sole unbeaten team in conference play, Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks had a rough start to the game as starting quarterback Case Cookus was ejected early in the first quarter for a targeting call on a play he was blocking for a receiver. From there Stone Smartt came in and did his best with what he was given. He was given a defense anxious to hit him early and often, recording seven sacks. On the other hand, Montana starting quarterback Gresch Jensen was ruled out with a concussion. This led to Montana starting fourth string quarterback Makena Simis. Simis rushed for 101 yards, and with the help of a special teams touchdown from Jerry Louis-McGee Montana defeated Northern Arizona. The Griz will host Northern Colorado, while the Lumberjacks will host Montana State.

In the final game of the week, and the Big Sky Pillow Fight of the Week, Portland State took their trip down the coast and took on Cal Poly. In a game that didn’t feature a whole lot of defense both teams got to showcase their offenses. Davis Alexander recorded 409 passing yards with a touchdown and interception. Cal Poly rushed for 400 yards and five touchdowns to return the favor. Running back Jared Mohamed had 194 yards and two scores for the Mustangs. The teams combined for 50 first downs, however! Portland State will host Weber State, Cal Poly will host Sacramento State.

Scores

Northern Arizona 15
Montana 17

Kennesaw State 16
Montana State 14

Weber State 28
Eastern Washington 20

UC Davis 56
Idaho State 17

North Dakota 21
Southern Utah 47

Northern Colorado 21
Sacramento State 50

Portland State 28
Cal Poly 35

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky Player of the Week is Weber State quarterback Stefan Cantwell. Cantwell was 21/31 for 230 yards and three touchdowns as the Wildcats defeated Eastern Washington in Cheney this weekend. Cantwell also added 66 yards rushing on 12 carries.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington – 22/42 for 239 yards, 1 TD 1 INT
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 3 receptions, 16 yards
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 11 receptions, 112 yards
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – No stats recorded
Tanner Gueller, QB, Idaho State – 13/21 for 183 yards

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Weber State
3. Montana
4. Eastern Washington
5. Northern Arizona
6. UC-Davis
7. Sacramento State
8. Montana State
9. Idaho State
10. Northern Colorado
11. North Dakota
12. Cal Poly
13. Portland State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Interesting to see a quarterback get tossed for targeting.. might never see it again, but it sure was fun to see in person.

Kennesaw State runs a pretty good triple option. Not a bad team for a third year program from Georgia playing in the snow and cold in Bozeman.

We’ll see what Eastern Washington is made of this weekend. They have a gimme game against North Dakota, however, they’ll be without two players who were involved with police in Cheney on Saturday night. Gage Gabrud will not be playing and his backup will be there in relief. We’ll see how that goes.

Looking at the playoffs there are still five teams from the Big Sky looking for a spot. Southern Utah, Weber State, Montana, Northern Arizona, and Eastern Washington should all have a shot, however, only three or maybe four are getting in. Unless there are upsets this weekend, there’s no reason to think that anything will be really decided this weekend.

Congrats to Cal Poly on their win in the pillow fight against Portland State. True incompetence can’t always be measured easily, however in Portland, it may be measured by not winning any games.

My picks this week are Montana, Eastern Washington, Weber State, UC-Davis, Northern Arizona, and Sacramento State.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 10 Results

As we come down the stretch of the regular season things are starting to shake themselves out in the top 25. There wasn’t an inordinate amount of upsets this week but those that happened sufficiently shook up the rankings from top to bottom. Despite all the volatility this year the #1 team remained the same as it has been all year in James Madison. Jacksonville State and Central Arkansas moved up to #2 and #3, respectively, behind them as North Dakota State fell to #4 following their loss to South Dakota State who moved up 4 spots to round out the top 5 at #5.

Other than SDSU the other big risers on the week were Weber State who moved up 5 spots to #12 following their win over EWU and Northern Iowa who also rose 5 spots to #19 following a big home win against South Dakota. Montana was the only new team in the top 25 this week rising up 6 spots to #25 after their upset home win against Northern Arizona.

On the flip side South Dakota dropped 5 spots to #10 and Northern Arizona dropped 6 spots to #16 after their aforementioned losses to UNI and Montana. Illinois State and Eastern Washington took the biggest tumbles of the week dropping 8 spots each to #21 and #23, respectively, after their losses to WIU and Weber State. Villanova dropped out of the top 25 after falling in their 3rd straight game.

In terms of conference representation the MVFC led the way again placing 6 teams into the top 25. There were followed by the Big Sky with 5, the CAA and SOCON with 4 each, and the Southland with 3 teams in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1875 75
2 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1717
3 Central Arkansas Bears 1707
4 North Dakota State Bison 1656
5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1526
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1469
7 Elon Phoenix 1437
8 Wofford Terriers 1326
9 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1224
10 South Dakota Coyotes 1200
11 Stony Brook Seawolves 1038
12 Weber State Wildcats 990
13 Western Illinois Leathernecks 922
14 North Carolina A&T Aggies 903
15 Furman Paladins 705
16 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 671
17 Samford Bulldogs 528
18 Western Carolina Catamounts 517
19 Northern Iowa Panthers 504
20 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 473
21 Illinois State Redbirds 444
22 Monmouth Hawks 326
23 Eastern Washington Eagles 210
24 McNeese State Cowboys 208
25 Montana Grizzlies 178
ORV:
26 Kennessaw State Owls 153
27 New Hampshire Wildcats 133
28 Nicholls State Colonels 125
29 Grambling State Tigers 88
30 Richmond Spiders 80
31 Yale Bulldogs 19
32 North Carolina Central Eagles 10
33T Colgate Raiders 4
33T Villanova Wildcats 4
35 Austin Peay Governors 3
36 Sacramento State Hornets 2

Most Significant Win: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Most Significant Loss: South Dakota Coyotes

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?198527-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-10-11-06-2017

SOCON Week 10 Review

ETSU 24 VMI 6

In perhaps the only conference game of the season ETSU was favored to win, they did so with ease against VMI.  Mistakes plagued the Keydets all day as they threw two interceptions, including a pick a six. The Keydets were held to less than 200 yards of offense and less than 2 yards per rush against an ETSU team that had struggled all year to stop the run.  ETSU QB Austin Herink only needed to throw 15 passes on the day, completing 8 of them.  ETSU ran the ball 50 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns.  Though ETSU racked up yardage against the Keydet defense, they only had 2 3-or-4 and outs on the day.  They fumbled the ball once and turned the ball over on downs twice, including on their final possession inside VMI’s 5 yard line.  A fourth-quarter score gave the Bucs a 24-6 lead, effectively putting the game away with 10 minutes remaining.  ETSU dominated time of possession by a margin of 34:57 to 25:03.

As “close” as this game was, it doesn’t do proper justice to the amount ETSU has improved from this year to last or how far VMI has fallen from their 3-8 mark last year.  Last year in Lexington, VMI blew out ETSU by a score of 37-7. A 45 point swing from one year to the next is impressive in any context, but the reality is that ETSU took it easy on VMI.  This year in games where ETSU scored a comparable amount to this game, Quarterback Austin Herink and the pass game had to throw the ball 27+ times to stay competitive because other teams sufficiently shut down the ETSU run game. Herink’s 15 passes thrown is a season-low for the junior QB and the fact they called a run play 77% of the game when the Bucs have the second best passing game in the conference speaks to the approach Coach Carl Torbush wants to build in the near future. ETSU still isn’t where it needs to be in the trenches, averaging less than 3 yards per carry against VMI, a team that’s given up 4.5 yards per carry and over 200 yards per game this season.  Having said that, if you’re an ETSU fan you have to feel content with this game because they controlled it and it would have been much worse had Torbush unleashed the ETSU pass game against the second-to-last VMI pass defense.  Next week ETSU plays a Samford team with a strong defense and a veteran QB looking for revenge after the Bucs beat upset Samford in the last game of last season.

For the 0-10 Keydets, this game continues a frustrating trend as VMI hasn’t scored 20 points on any team in division one this year.  In conference play, their offense has only broken 10 points once (VMI scored 14 against Mercer, but one of those touchdowns was a pick 6).  Meanwhile, their defense has allowed every opponent to score 20 points or more on them this season.  Luckily for the Keydets, next week they play Wofford at home on Veterans’ Day.  They have nothing to lose.  Though Wofford may be 8-1, they’ve won 8 of their games by a touchdown or less.  Last year in Spartanburg, after three quarters VMI only trailed by three points.  Though VMI has looked bad this season, an upset next week is possible.  Under similar circumstances in 2002, VMI beat a Wofford team competing for playoff positioning and a conference championship.  The loss infamously kept Wofford out of the playoffs and the keydets will be looking to repeat on Saturday.

Samford 20 Mercer 3

Samford bounced back from their upset loss to Chattanooga last week with a nice 20-3 win over Mercer in Macon.  The Samford defense outscored the Mercer offense 4-3, recording two safeties on the day.  The Bulldogs were still afflicted by the turnover bug, fumbling 3 times and throwing an interception.  For the first time in a while, a Samford victory can be attributed squarely on the defense, holding Mercer to below 200 yards on the day.  The Bulldog offense turned the ball over twice inside the Mercer 20 and fumbled a punt return at mid-field.  Though Samford recorded 467 yards of offense, including 369 yards on the field and 7 of 15 on third downs, turnovers could have made this game more competitive; luckily the Bulldog defense rallied.  The Mercer offense was downright anemic coming out of the bye week, rushing for a season low 33 yards on 26 carries.  Redshirt Freshman Quarterback Kaelen Riley had shown improvement all year, but completed less than 50% of his passes (18 of 38), throwing no touchdowns and an interception.  On one play inside their own redzone, the Bears managed to snap the ball before the recipient was ready and that resulted in a safety.  The Samford pass rushed harassed Riley all day, resulting in 3 sacks.  The Bears converted a measly 4 of 16 third down conversions and by far had their worst game of the season.

For the Bears, there’s only pride to play for this season. Sitting at 4-5, they will miss the playoffs.  Next week they travel to Cullowhee, North Carolina to play Western Carolina and then another road trip to play Alabama.  Under normal circumstances, the best bet would be that the game next week would be competitive, but it looks like this Mercer team is broken.  Though Mercer isn’t known for winning close games, they are known for playing everyone competitively, especially at home.  They didn’t look that way this week.  If they continue on this path they could finish the year at a poor 4-7 that doesn’t reflect the talent and potential of this team.

For Samford, they are already playing their playoffs. With a strong field in the FCS this year, it’s unlikely that 7-4 with 6 D1 wins and a bad loss to Chattanooga will make the playoffs for Samford, but an 8-3 record would probably be a lock. The Bulldogs are 6-3 and need to keep winning to make the playoffs. They play ETSU and Furman at home over the next two weeks, and neither will be a gimme.  If the defense maintains the rate they get teams off the field, they may well earn the title of the best defense in the Socon. To be in a position to win, however, they have to cut down on the turnovers, averaging 5 per game over the last two games. Next week against ETSU is no gimme either, as the Bucs beat Samford in Johnson City last year. The Bucs are a better team this year than last so Samford will be challenged.

Western Carolina 31 The Citadel 19

Reports of Tyrie Adams’s demise were greatly exaggerated as Western Carolina earned a solid win against the Citadel on the road in Charleston.  Returning from an ankle injury suffered last week against Furman, Adams resumed the helm, completed 14 of 21 passing for 133 yards, three touchdowns and rushed for 50 yards on 7 carries against the stout Citadel defense.  Detrez Newsome had another phenomenal game, rushing for 197 yards on 24 carries.  The Bulldogs outgained the Catamounts 420 to 386, including outgained them on the ground 367 to 253, but 5 turnovers ultimately cost them the game.  Senior QB Dominique Allen threw 3 interceptions on only 8 passes and the Citadel could not overcome. When the Citadel failed to convert on fourth down inside Western Carolina territory, the Catamounts put the game on ice with a 71 yard touchdown drive with 6:14 remaining.

With the loss, the Citadel is completely eliminated from playoff consideration. In the end, offensive execution may be the difference between this year’s team being a forgettable 5-6 or 6-5 and competing for a socon championship and playoff consideration.  After coming out of the gates stomping Newberry, PC and ETSU, their offense has failed to score more than 21 points in six straight Socon games.  Though the Bulldog defense is solid on the year, still #1 in total defense as of this writing, it could not overcome the holes the offense dug them into this year.  Next week they play Furman in a game that promises to be competitive as it is a rivalry game.  The Citadel is playing for a winning season as they will likely lose to Clemson in two weeks. Furman will continue to play for a playoff spot, and they appear to have the advantage, coming off a bye in what will likely be an emotional senior day for a young team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2013.

Western Carolina added to their playoff resume, likely punching their ticket.  For the first time in a while, the Catamounts have 7 division one wins through 10 games this year.  Next week they play an ailing Mercer team at home in what may be Detrez Newsome’s final home game as a Catamount.  The Catamounts still haven’t solved their run defense problems as the Citadel ran for over 300 yards against them. To complicate their game against Mercer next week, the Bears still have one of the best defenses in the Socon and points may be difficult.  For the Catamounts the thinking is simple: win and they are in the FCS playoffs for the first time in a long time.

 

Wofford 24 Chattanooga 21 (2 OT)

Once again, Wofford won a game by a touchdown or less.  If you’re keeping score on at home, the Terriers are 8-1, but with 8 games coming down to the wire in the fourth quarter or overtime (the Terriers are 2-0 in OT this year).  This time, they faced a resurgent Chattanooga Moc team that was looking to win against a top 10 team on the road for a second straight week. For most of the game it was a defensive struggle as the Chattanooga defense limited Wofford to two first downs in the first half and dominated time of possession by about 9 minutes in the first half.  The Mocs were able to maintain two first-half drives for over 8 minutes but failed to reach the endzone in either. Had it not been for a fumble on a freak tackle by Wofford cornerback Devon Watson, the Mocs may well have led at the half 6-0. Three plays later, the Terriers scored to take the lead into the half 7-6. In the second half, the Terriers were much more successful moving the ball, but were only able to get one touchdown. A tipped punt put Chattanooga inside Wofford’s territory with less than 2 minutes left. Freshman QB Cole Copeland threw a touchdown with 16 seconds left and caught the two point conversion on a trick play.  The teams exchanged touchdowns in Overtime, and in the second overtime Copeland threw an interception.  The stout Chattanooga defense forced Wofford to settle for a field goal, where Luke Carter won the game from 34 yards out.

This year has been a struggle for the Chattanooga Mocs, but there’s many reasons to be optimistic going into 2018.  They’ve had offensive line problems all year, failing to rush for 50 yards in many games, but in the last three games Coach Arth has made the adjustments needed to win games, rushing for 99 yards or more in three straight games. Cole Copeland isn’t quite where he needs to be to be a great QB, but there were sparks of improvement in this game, as he completed 27 of 39 passes. The gameplan going into this game was perfectly executed for the Mocs, as they were able to milk clock and lean on their (currently ranked third) defense to put them in a position to win.  The Mocs have a bye this week, then they play intrastate rival ETSU for pride.  If Copeland and the offensive line can continue their improvement while the defense plays solid, they may be favored to win.

For Wofford, the only thing relieving the sting of winning ugly so much is sitting pretty at 6-1 in the Socon and 8-1 overall.  For one reason or another, Wofford can’t make the play that puts the game on ice with 5 minutes left, but the Terriers find a play to put it on ice with 5 second left,  The Terriers just need to win against VMI this week in Lexington, VA and they’ll win at least a share of the Southern Conference title and the out-right automatic bid to the FCS playoffs.  The Terriers can’t afford to look ahead or treat this game as given, because quite frankly no game this year has been a given. History shows here are plenty of reasons to think VMI will give the Terriers everything they want and more (see the final paragraph of VMI-ETSU above). At this point, there’s a 99% chance the Terriers are in the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of next week.  Mike Ayers remembers 2002 and I’m certain he’ll have his team prepared.