The FCS Wedge – 2017-1114 – WEEK 11 REVIEW

Lance & Kris go over our the stories this week and the top news of the weekend is the bubble. Coming into the weekend, we had the potential for an enormous bubble going into the final week and subsequent selection Sunday. Nearly all the teams that needed to win did just that. A lot of the teams that didn’t necessarily need two straight wins lost.

Second top story, we have 4 teams who have clinched their respective conference auto bids. Jacksonville State and Wofford cemented their auto-bid position. Wofford holds the tiebreaker over Furman and if JSU loses next weekend, they’d still hold the tiebreaker over Austin Peay. Then

San Diego fully clinched the Pioneer, a conference in which their average margin of victory has been 35 points per game.

Finally, in the NEC, the conference where teams take their turns getting auto-bids, Central Connecticut State upsets Duquesne to take the title. This will be the 7th different school to have nabbed the auto-bid in the 8 years the conference has had one. Only Bryant remains as not having reached the playoffs yet.

They take a quick look at how the AGS Poll shook out this week.

Lance & Kris bring it home by giving a review of these games from last weekend:

New Hampshire 16 Elon 6

North Dakota State 49 South Dakota 14

South Dakota State 27 Illinois State 24

James Madison 20 Richmond 13

Mercer 35 Western Carolina 33

Northern Arizona 37 Montana State 36

*EE Show

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Big Sky Round Up Week 11

The Big Sky’s playoff picture didn’t get much clearer on Saturday win week 11 of play, however we now have the setup for a big final weekend of regular season play. No big upsets this weekend, which means there are six teams alive for a playoff berth, but possibly only three or four spots will be given to Big Sky teams. As of now Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, Weber State, Eastern Washington, and Sacramento State are alive for spots. Realistically, Eastern Washington and Sacramento State will probably not be in the field. The other four, however, are still alive.

The final weekend will pit a bubble team, Montana against its in-state rival Montana State. Northern Arizona and Southern Utah will also face off, with NAU quite possibly being on the bubble. Southern Utah and Weber should have spots wrapped up for Sunday’s selection show.

The Big Sky’s week started with Eastern Washington take a trip across a couple of time zones to take on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks. The Hawks are having a bit of a letdown this season due to a number of injuries to key starters. Eastern Washington on the other hand was dealing with the suspension of two players due to some extracurricular activities last weekend. One of those players was starting quarterback Gage Gubrud. The Fighting Hawks got on the board first with a Keaton Studsrud touchdown run. Eastern Washington would answer with a half back pass, Sam McPherson to Talolo Limu-Jones. Eastern Washington hit on two more scoring plays in the second quarter including a touchdown from quarterback in relief Eric Barriere to McPherson. Barriere also had a touchdown run. North Dakota tried to make it interesting in the fourth quarter by closing to gap to within seven but couldn’t close out. Eastern Washington will take on Portland State next weekend while North Dakota’s season is over.

After Montana’s victory against Northern Arizona last weekend without starting quarterback Gresch Jensen the Griz were happy to have Jensen back for Northern Colorado. The Bears know a thing or two about playing with a backup, as Jacob Knipp was knocked for the season and Conor Regan was brought in for the remainder of the season. The Griz got off to a quick start with a touchdown run from Gresch Jensen to open up the scoring. Northern Colorado answered right back with a scoring drive of their own, Alex Wesley catching a 26 yard pass from Conor Regan. From there the Griz scored 37 straight points and blew the doors off of Northern Colorado. The Bears managed a garbage time pick six by Marshaun Cameron to get the score a tiny bit closer. Montana will be at Montana State next weekend, while Northern Colorado will host Cal Poly in the Big Sky pillow fight of the week.

Portland State, the Big Sky’s kicking post this season, hosted Weber State this weekend. If you read that last sentence correctly you can probably imagine how this game turned out. Weber State got up 49-3 at the half and that’s really all you need to know about this game. The Wildcats rushed for 421 yards in this contest and somehow only kept the ball for two and a half minutes more than the Vikings. Kevin Smith rushed for 143 yards, David Jones rushed for 103 yards, and Treshawn Garrett rushed for 88 yards. Combined the rushers had seven touchdowns for the Wildcats. Portland State scored a couple of touchdowns in the second half, presumably against the Weber State JV. Weber State will host Idaho State next weekend in the Zion border war, while Portland State will look to keep it respectable against Eastern Washington.

Southern Utah kept their winning ways going and their lead in the Big Sky with a victory against UC-Davis this past weekend. The Aggies came into the game looking for an upset of the Big Sky’s leader and instead found a buzzsaw. Jake Maier turned in a respectable game, however it wasn’t enough to overcome the Thunderbird defense. Patrick Tyler earned Big Sky player of the week honors, as he passed for 370 yards and three touchdowns. Southern Utah quickly got up 21-0 on the Aggies, the first score on an interception return, then a Patrick Tyler touchdown pass. Jay Green would punch in a one yard touchdown to follow. At the half the Thunderbirds were up 26-7. Davis would come back and score in the third and fourth quarter, however the game was pretty much in hand before the Davis offense woke up. Southern Utah will host Northern Arizona next week while Davis will play the Causeway Classic against Sacramento State.

Case Cookus made his return to the field this week one week after being ejected against Montana for a helmet to helmet hit. Cookus came back and threw for 314 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for a touchdown as well. On the other side of the ball was the Montana State Bobcats who were looking to play the role of upset team, as their season is basically already over. The Bobcats made the game interesting in the fourth quarter by scoring with 13:18 left in the 4th to even it up at 30. NAUs Joe Logan would put in a touchdown to give the Lumberjacks a seven point lead with 4:49 left in the game. Montana State wasn’t done and went driving. Chris Murray hit Kevin Kassis with :32 seconds left in the game to put the Cats in position to win or tie the game. Coach Jeff Choate opted for the two point conversion and Chris Murray could not finish the play and NAU would escape with the win. Montana State will host Montana next week in the Treasure State Super Bowl, while Northern Arizona will be at Southern Utah.

In the night cap the Sacramento State Hornets went on the road to take on fairly helpless Cal Poly. The Hornets were trying to keep their very remote playoff chances alive and needed a win. Sacramento State put their foot to the gas almost immediately scoring three plays into the game and went on to score 49 straight against the Mustangs. Kevin Thomson had three touchdown passes for the Hornets. Ernest Jenkins returned a blocked field goal attempt for a 74 yard touchdown in the first quarter. The Hornets piled up 465 yards on offense while only holding the ball for 21:15 of the game. The Hornets will host UC-Davis next weekend while Cal Poly will be playing in the Big Sky pillow fight at Northern Colorado.

Scores

Eastern Washington 21
North Dakota 14

Northern Colorado 14
Montana 44

Weber State 63
Portland State 17

Southern Utah 47
UC-Davis 27

Montana State 36
Northern Arizona 37

Sacramento State 49
Cal Poly 14

Big Sky Player of the Week

This week’s Big Sky player of the week is Southern Utah quarterback Patrick Tyler. Tyler was 26/36 for 370 yards and three touchdowns as the Thunderbirds took care of business against UC-Davis on Saturday in Davis, CA.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gubrud, QB, Eastern Washington – Did not record any stats
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 9 receptions, 123 yards
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 11 receptions for 93 yards
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – 17/25 for 228 yards, 3 TD, 30 yards rushing 1 TD
Patrick Tyler, QB, Southern Utah – 26/36 for 370 yards, 3 TD 2 INT, 15 yards rushing

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Weber State
3. Montana
4. Eastern Washington
5. Northern Arizona
6. Sacramento State
7. UC-Davis
8. Montana State
9. Idaho State
10. Northern Colorado
11. North Dakota
12. Cal Poly
13. Portland State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

Fully expected to UC-Davis to pull the upset this week, but that Southern Utah team might be the real deal. I haven’t known what to think of them all season, and every week I think, “there’s no way they can win again this week” and they do. Hope they can win out and get a playoff seed, they’ve earned it.

Montana State going for two and losing was basically how I expected that game to end. As I was sitting in the bar area at Jakers in Missoula watching the game I said to the group with me, and whomever was in earshot at the time, “This is going to end with the Cats failing on a two point conversion.”  Welp.  That said, Jeff Choate made the right decision. The Cats literally had nothing to lose (except the game). They’re not going to the playoffs, they’re on the road, what the hell.. take the shot. You’re the hero if you convert it, no worse off if you lose. Right decision, poor execution.. didn’t like that play call.

I’m guessing none of you had Sacramento State blowing out Cal Poly when this season started.

Gage Gubrud’s replacement, Eric Barriere, had an okay day in his first start for Eastern Washington. 13/23 for 130 yards and a touchdown pass, as well as 55 yards rushing and a touchdown. Game probably looks a bit different if Gubrud is playing, but he didn’t.

The Big Sky comes down to next week. There’s a three way tie at the top of the conference for the autoqualifier bid. Southern Utah, Weber State and Northern Arizona are all 6-1 in conference. Montana, Eastern Washington, and Sacramento State are all sitting at 5-2 in conference. Eastern Washington and Sacramento State are both 6-4 on the season. In theory, EWU and Sacramento State are probably not getting into the playoffs at 7-4 (if they both win next week). That leaves Montana, Weber, Northern Arizona and Southern Utah probably fighting for three spots. Southern Utah and NAU play next weekend. Weber did not have to play NAU this year. Going to be a screwy tie breaker scenario that plays out.

At the same time… can’t believe we give a playoff spot to the NEC and the Pioneer league. Man alive.. why? I get it, but why? Also, the Patriot league leader, Lehigh, is 4-1 in conference.. and 4-6 overall. The second place team, Colgate, is 6-4, 4-1 in conference. Lehigh owns the tiebreaker over Colgate in this situation.

North Carolina A&T won the MEAC this past weekend. They have indicated that they will play in the Celebration Bowl rather than the FCS playoffs. That’s a shame that one of the FCS’s top teams, and one of two that are left undefeated, won’t be competing in this year’s playoffs. It would be interesting to see how they’d fare in the tournament.

My picks for the week: Montana, Northern Colorado, Weber State, Southern Utah, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington.

2017-1114 Week 11 AGS FCS Bracket

The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket

Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both the seeds and at larges as that poll has been one of the better predictors of both those selections and is a combination of many voters and not just that of one opinion. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess at automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines the committee uses from the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together. You can see those guidelines in the link below.

Championship Manual Link

Here is the bracket based on current standings in the AGS Top 25 Poll.

Last four in: Montana, New Hampshire, Delaware, Samford

First four out: McNeese St, Kennesaw St, Eastern Washington, Illinois State

Next four out: Nicholls St, Western Carolina, Richmond, Colgate

The Seeds: This week we saw NDSU jump back to the 2 spot it had resided in for the entire season until last week following an impressive win against South Dakota. Central Arkansas jumped ahead of Jacksonville St following JSU’s close bout with Tenn-Martin. Elon was bumped from seeded territory after taking a loss at New Hampshire which made room to move Southern Utah into the seeds at 8. On the outside looking in we have Stony Brook at 9 followed by Weber State and Western Illinois.

The Bubble: Montana was the final team into the bracket with McNeese St being the unfortunate first team left out. McNeese St, Kennesaw St, and Nicholls St all look to finish with strong records but less than ideal SOS. Meanwhile both Eastern Washington and Illinois State look to finish with so-so records but both will have top 10 SOS in the nation. Barring a bunch of upsets this final weekend the bubble is looking awful full. The committee will have to make some tough decisions deciding who to leave home.

*Note: Elon and Furman played an OOC matchup earlier in the season. The committee does try and avoid these matchups barring it doesn’t create additional flights. As this field was set, splitting up that matchup would create additional travel.

Conference Breakdown
Automatic Qualifiers At- Large Bids
Big Sky Southern Utah Weber St
Northern Arizona
Montana
Big South Monmouth
CAA James Madison Stony Brook
Elon
Delaware
New Hampshire
MVFC North Dakota St South Dakota St
Western Illinois
South Dakota
Northern Iowa
NEC Central Connecticut
OVC Jacksonville St
Patriot Lehigh
Pioneer San Diego
Southern Wofford Furman
Samford
Southland Central Arkansas Sam Houston St

MVFC – Week 11 in Review

MVFC LogoThis week went down pretty much as expected, for the most part, without any real upsets. A few teams somewhat “outperformed” expectations, but the end results this week aren’t really a huge surprise.

Let’s take a look at conference standings, where teams are in relation to a possible playoff spot or if that’s out of the picture for them.

School Overall Conference Final Game
North Dakota State 9-1 6-1 @ILSU
South Dakota State 8-2 5-2 @USD
Northern Iowa 6-4 5-2 INSU
South Dakota 7-3 4-3 SDSU
Western Illinois 7-3 4-3 SIU
Illinois State 6-4 4-3 NDSU
Youngstown State 5-5 3-4 MSU
Southern Illinois 4-6 2-5 @WIU
Missouri State 3-7 2-5 @YSU
Indiana State 0-10 0-7 @UNI

For reference, in recent history, I believe only one 8-DI-win MVFC team has been excluded from the playoffs (YSU in 2013, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season, but was tied with 3 other MVFC teams at 5-3 in the conference and was coming off of 3-straight losses). In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.

NDSU, USD, SDSU, and WIU have all reached 7+ wins and will likely be in the playoffs. The one caveat to this is USD, who has lost their last two games (and 3 of their last 4). If they lose again next weekend (to SDSU), they may be considered “borderline” since the previously mentioned 8-4 2013 YSU team got left out because they lost their last 3 straight). Not saying they will be left out, but they’ll be sweating things come Selection Sunday.

UNI and ILSU are both at 6 wins and need 1 more to get into the playoffs. UNI should be able to do it assuming a win against INSU, but ILSU has to take on NDSU, so that’s a really tough situation for them.

With 5 or fewer wins and only one regular season game left, YSU, SIU, MSU, and INSU are out of the playoff picture. SIU and INSU both play teams that are likely in the playoffs, so they could make things “interesting” if either of them pull off a win.

#13 Western Illinois at Indiana State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
WIU 3 28 7 7 45
ILSU 0 0 0 0 0

Quick Hits:

  • WIU – RB Steve McShane ran for 63 yards, caught for 51 yards and 1 TD, and returned 3 punts including an 81-yard TD return
  • WIU – #2 QB Connor Sampson came in in the second half and threw for 20 yards and a TD…the first of his Leatherneck career…to WR (and HS teammate) Darron Wheeler…for his first TD catch of his Leatherneck career
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor again led the team with 9 tackles, 1.5 for loss and a forced fumble
  • WIU – DBs Aaron Diggs and Justin Fitzpatrick had 6 tackles and 1 INT each
  • INSU – RB LeMonte Booker ran for 51 yards, and WR Bob Pugh caught for 51 yards…the top player for each stat
  • INSU – LB Jonas Griffith led the team with 13 tackles, 2 for loss including 1 sack as well as 1 pass breakup and 2 QB hurries
  • INSU – P Thomas Bouldin kicked 8 times with a 44 yards per punt average, had 1 inside the 20 and 2 TBs

Western Illinois’ defense played a great game, pitching a shutout for the first time since 2010 and holding an opponent to under 200 total yards of offense for the first time since 2010. Indiana State’s defense also played well, despite the score. They spent much of the day bringing pressure behind the line of scrimmage and getting 8 total tackles for loss. This helped to keep the game close at first, with the only points being a WIU FG. In the second quarter, however, WIU was able to figure out that nearly all of the pressure was coming from the outside…so they started running inside more. 28 points later and WIU had a 31-0 lead going into halftime. The second half saw many underclassmen and second-string players take the field for the Leathernecks, with two players getting the first TD catches of their careers, to increase the lead to 45-0 by the end of the game. The biggest “ding” against WIU in this game was when top WR Jaelon Acklin reacted poorly to being roughly picked up off the pile by an Indiana State defender by throwing a fist his direction. The actions got both players ejected from the game and suspended for the first halves of the team’s games next week. I’ve been informed that non-targeting ejections do not carry a further suspension, so it sounds like Acklin will be back for the start of next week’s game.

Western Illinois picks up their 7th win of the season, moving to 7-3 overall, 4-3 in the MVFC and will play 4-6 Southern Illinois next weekend in Macomb.
Indiana State remains winless on the season, moving to 0-10 overall, 0-7 in the MVFC, and hit the road for the season closer at 6-4 Northern Iowa.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 30
It was: Leathernecks by 45
30…45…80…does it really matter? In a game like this it was just a question of when they would call off the dogs.

Youngstown State at Southern Illinois

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
YSU 0 14 7 7 28
SIU 0 7 10 3 20

Quick Hits:

  • YSU – RB Tevin McCaster ran for 158 yards and 1 TD
  • YSU – WR Damoun Patterson had 4 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs
  • YSU – DE Justus Reed had a couple of tackles, but also had a strip-sack forced fumble that he recovered and returned 21 yards for a TD near the end of the game to go up by 8…essentially the deciding score
  • SIU – Safety-turned-Running QB Matt DeSomer ran for 140 yards and 2 TDs and threw for 81 yards…and led the team in receiving with 1 catch for 34 yards. I think that’s the first time I’ve ever seen one player lead the team in passing, rushing, and receiving in one game.
  • SIU – LB Kyron Watson led the team in tackles with 11
  • SIU – DL Anthony Knighton had 6 tackles, 1.5 for loss (including 1 sack), a forced fumble, and a pass breakup

Despite the fact that neither team had much to play for other than bragging rights, this was one of the more exciting games of the weekend. SIU got up early in the 2nd quarter on a 58-yard TD run, but YSU answered back with a couple of Hunter Wells TD passes to lead 14-7 at the half. In the 3rd, SIU picked up a FG and TD and YSU had another of their own to give YSU a 4 point lead. SIU had another FG with 9:21 left in the 4th to pull within 1, but then with just under 2 minutes left in the game, YSU DE Justus Reed sacked the SIU QB, stripping the ball, and running it back for a TD to reach the final score of 28-20.

Youngstown State moves to an even 5-5 on the season with a 3-4 conference record and will host 3-7 Missouri State next weekend.
Southern Illinois falls to 4-6 and 2-5 in the conference and will conclude their season at 7-3 Western Illinois.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Penguins by 7
It was: Penguins by 8

They say defenses win championships. This wasn’t a championship, but it still applies. Both teams had issues with injured QBs and were about even offensively. YSU has a better defense though and it showed on the last scoring play.

#21 Illinois State at #5 South Dakota State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT Final
ILSU 7 10 0 7 0 24
SDSU 7 10 0 7 3 27

Quick Hits:

  • ILSU – RS-FR QB Malachi Broadnax threw for 102 yards and ran for 83 yards in his (as near as I can tell) starting debut for the Redbirds
  • ILSU – WR James Robinson caught for 83 yards and 2 TDs
  • ILSU – LB Brannon Barry led the team with 8 tackles, 1 for loss, and DE James Graham had 2 sacks
  • ILSU – DB Christian Uphoff had a couple of kickoff returns including one taken 5 yards in the end zone and returned all the way across the field for a 100-yard TD
  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christian threw for 172 yards and 2 TDs, but also had 2 INTs. He also ran for 110 yards and another TD
  • SDSU – WR Jake Wieneke caught 5 passes for 52 yards
  • SDSU – LB Christian Rozeboom led the team with 10 tackles, including 2 for loss (1 sack)
  • SDSU – PK Chase Vinatieri kicked two FGs including the game-winning 43-yarder in OT and earned the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week Award

A TD for each team in the first quarter and they were all tied up at 7.
A FG for each team in the second quarter and they were all tied up at 10 at halftime.
A TD for each team in the fourth quarter and they were all tied up at 24…(sensing a pattern here?)
In OT, ISU’s kicker missed a 39-yard FG to the left, but when SDSU was stopped further back, Vinatieri hit the game winner from 43 yards out (how familiar does that sound to anyone who also follows the NFL?…Chase Vinatieri is the nephew of former SDSU and longtime NFL kicker Adam Vinatieri, just fyi).

Illinois State drops to 6-4 overall, 4-3 in the MVFC and hope to salvage any hope of making the playoffs back home against 9-1 North Dakota State next weekend.
South Dakota State moves to 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and head down the road to take on in-state rival 7-3 South Dakota to close out the regular season.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 7
It was: Jackrabbits by 3

I said that SDSU would by a Dallas Goedert TD reception. Well…TE Goedert did have a TD reception, although it was the first score of the game. Still, I knew it’d be a close game, didn’t know it’d go to OT, but it was close.

#19 Northern Iowa at Missouri State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
UNI 6 16 0 3 25
MSU 0 7 3 0 10

Quick Hits:

  • UNI – RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 131 yards and 1 TD
  • UNI – DB Elijah Campbell had 4 tackles and an INT returned 35 yards for a TD
  • UNI – PK Sam Drysdale went 4/4 on FGs from 20, 47, 37, and 22 yards
  • MSU – RB Jason Randall ran for 24 yards and a TD
  • MSU – LB Angelo Garbutt led the team with 17 tackles, had 1.5 TFLs (including 1 sack), and 2 QB hurries; he earned the MVFC Newcomer of the Week Award
  • MSU – P Brendan Withrow had 6 punts for a 45.7 yard average with a long of 56 and 2 within the 20

Northern Iowa got the scoring started with a TD in the first and then a couple of FGs in the second. The first play from scrimmage following that second FG, MSU threw an interception that was taken back for a TD. With less than a minute left in the 2nd, MSU was finally able to get some points on the board with a TD to go to halftime down 22-7. The Bears were only able to muster a FG in the 3rd and the Panthers finished up with a FG of their own late in the 4th to come away with the 25-10 victory. In the game, UNI QB Eli Dunne was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter, with QB Colton Howell coming in for the rest of the game. Howell wasn’t spectacular, but didn’t throw any interceptions and had 3 net yards on the ground (so didn’t end up with a lot of negative yards from sacks…a few…but nothing huge). I think with Dunne in there, UNI probably would have turned a couple of those FGs into TDs.

Northern Iowa is now 6-4, 5-2 in the conference and heads back home to close out their season against 0-10 Indiana State.
Missouri State falls to 3-7, 2-5 against MVFC teams. They’ll finish the season at 5-5 Youngstown State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Panthers by 17
It was: Panthers by 15
Pretty solid pick here…like I said, I think Dunne would have gotten them a few more points, but not too far off.

#10 South Dakota at #4 North Dakota State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
USD 7 7 0 0 14
NDSU 14 14 14 7 49

Quick Hits:

  • USD – QB Chris Streveler threw for 232 yards and ran for 93 yards and 2 TDs
  • USD – DB Phillip Powell led the team with 11 tackles
  • USD – WR Brandt Van Roekel finished with 62 receiving yards
  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 307 yards and a TD and ran for 39 yards and a TD; he earned the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week Award
  • NDSU – CB Jalen Allison – led the team with 10 tackles, 7 solo, and had 1 sack, earning him the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week Award
  • NDSU – RB Ty Brooks ran for 152 yards and 3 TDs

In this instance, the conference “game of the week”…wasn’t really much of a game. The Coyotes did start the game well with a TD on their first possession. Then it was NDSU’s turn for a (Ty Brooks rushing) TD. Then it was NDSU’s turn for a (Brooks Anderson rushing) TD. Then it was NDSU’s turn for a (Seth Wilson rushing) TD…I think you get the point. USD would score again on a second Chris Streveler run in the 2nd…and again NDSU would answer with a (Ty Brooks rushing) TD. By that point, NDSU had doubled-up USD with a halftime score of 28-14. From that point on though, it was all NDSU, with the Bison defense recording a second-half shutout while the offense put up TD after TD (three more, specifically), for a final score of 49-14.

South Dakota drops to 7-3 overall, 4-3 in the MVFC and will hope to hold on to their playoff hopes next week when they host 8-2 South Dakota State.
North Dakota State is now 9-1 with a 6-1 conference record and finish their regular season at 6-4 Illinois State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 12
It was: Bison by 35
That’s a bit of a larger margin than I anticipated. I knew the Bison would come out fired up after losing to SDSU the previous week…but kinda thought USD could hold them a little closer. This was the one game where I was a bit more off on the margin, but still got the pick.

I was 44-15 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 5-1 in my picks which puts me at 49-15 for the season so far.

Only one weekend remains until the regular season is over. It’s likely that anywhere from 4-6 MVFC teams will be playing after next weekend, depending on the results of next Saturday’s games.

AGS Poll: Top 25 Week 11 Results

With less than a week until Selection Sunday we’re getting down to the judgement day for many teams in the AGS rankings and although week 11 went to plan for the most part there’s still potential for a big shakeup in these rankings next week. As they have been all season James Madison is ranked #1 getting all but one of the 79 first place votes. However, there was some shuffling amongst the rest of the top 5 as North Dakota State and Jacksonville State swapped spots moving NDSU back to #2 and JSU down to #4. Central Arkansas and South Dakota State maintained their positions at #3 and #5, respectively, to round out the top 5.

There wasn’t much for big movers up this week as a number of teams moved up 1-3 spots due to teams falling in front of them. The lone exception was New Hampshire who rose 7 spots into the top 25 at #20 after their upset win over Elon. Kennesaw State also made their way into the 25 for the first time this year moving up 2 spots to #24 following their dismantling of Charleston Southern.

Elon and South Dakota were among the biggest fallers of the week each dropping 5 spots to #12 and #15, respectively, after losses to UNH and NDSU. Western Carolina and Illinois State each dropped out of the top 25 after sustaining losses to Mercer and SDSU.

The Big Sky, CAA, and MVFC led the way in terms of representation placing 5 teams each into the top 25. They were followed by the SOCON and the Southland with 3 each, and the Big South with 2 teams in the top 25.

Full results below:

Rank Team Total Points First Place Votes
1 James Madison Dukes 1974 78
2 North Dakota State Bison 1820 1
3 Central Arkansas Bears 1804
4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1752
5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 1661
6 Sam Houston State Bearkats 1534
7 Wofford Terriers 1464
8 Southern Utah Thunderbirds 1419
9 Stony Brook Seawolves 1221
10 Weber State Wildcats 1189
11 Western Illinois Leathernecks 1119
12 Elon Phoenix 1032
13 North Carolina A&T Aggies 921
14 Furman Paladins 891
15 South Dakota Coyotes 841
16 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 746
17 Northern Iowa Panthers 649
18 Samford Bulldogs 641
19 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 591
20 New Hampshire Wildcats 416
21 Monmouth Hawks 371
22 Montana Grizzlies 285
23 McNeese State Cowboys 269
24 Kennesaw State Owls 249
25 Eastern Washington Eagles 209
ORV:
26 Illinois State Redbirds 194
27 Nicholls State Colonels 180
28 Western Carolina Catamounts 97
29 Grambling State Tigers 88
30 Yale Bulldogs 21
31 Richmond Spiders 12
32 Colgate Raiders 5
33 Sacramento State Hornets 3
34T Austin Peay Governors 2
34T North Carolina Central Eagles 2

Most Significant Win: New Hampshire Wildcats
Most Significant Loss: Elon Phoenix

Join the discussion at http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?198881-AGS-Poll-Results-WEEK-11-11-13-2017

NOTE: Next week the AGS top 25 will be released early on Sunday morning to get out in advance of the NCAA Selection Show scheduled for Sunday 11/19 at 11AM ET on ESPNU.

AGS Top 25 – How They Fared Week 11 2017

Week 11 results:

Rank Team Week 11 Result
#1 James Madison Dukes Won vs #30 Richmond Spiders 20-13
#2 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Won at Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 14-7
#3 Central Arkansas Bears Won at Incarnate Word 56-10
#4 North Dakota State Bison Won vs #10 South Dakota Coyotes 49-14
#5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits Won vs #21 Illinois State Redbirds 27-24 (OT)
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats Won at Abilene Christian Wildcats 44-35
#7 Elon Phoenix Lost at #27 New Hampshire Wildcats 6-16
#8 Wofford Terriers Won at Virginia Military Institute Keydets 45-14
#9 Southern Utah Thunderbirds Won at UC Davis 47-27
#10 South Dakota Coyotes Lost at #4 North Dakota State Bison 14-49
#11 Stony Brook Seawolves Won vs Wagner Seahawks 38-10
#12 Weber State Wildcats Won at Portland State Vikings 63-17
#13 Western Illinois Leathernecks Won at Indiana State Sycamores 45-0
#14 North Carolina A&T Aggies Won vs Savannah State Tigers 36-17
#15 Furman Paladins Won vs The Citadel Bulldogs 56-20
#16 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Won vs Montana State 37-36
#17 Samford Bulldogs Won vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers 42-7
#18 Western Carolina Catamounts Lost vs Mercer Bears 33-35
#19 Northern Iowa Panthers Won at Missouri State Bears 25-10
#20 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens Won vs Albany Great Danes 22-3
#21 Illinois State Redbirds Lost at #5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24-27 (OT)
#22 Monmouth Hawks Won vs Gardner-Webb Running Bulldogs 41-14
#23 Eastern Washington Eagles Won at North Dakota Fighting Hawks 21-14
#24 McNeese State Cowboys Won vs Northwestern State 44-24
#25 Montana Grizzlies Won vs Northern Colorado Bears 44-14
Next 15
#26 Kennesaw State Owls Won vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers 38-0
#27 New Hampshire Wildcats Won vs #7 Elon Phoenix 16-6
#28 Nicholls State Colonels Won at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 34-13
#29 Grambling State Tigers Won at Alabama State Hornets 24-7
#30 Richmond Spiders Lost at #1 James Madison Dukes 13-20
#31 Yale Bulldogs Won at Princeton Tigers 35-31
#32 North Carolina Central Eagles Lost vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 10-13
#33 (t) Colgate Raiders Won at Lafayette Leopards 27-0
#33 (t) Villanova Wildcats Lost at Rhode Island Rams 6-20
#35 Austin Peay Governors Won at Eastern Kentucky Colonels 31-24
#36 Sacramento State Hornets Won at Cal Poly 49 – 14

 

 

Patriot League: Week 11 Preview

Georgetown (1-8, 0-4) at Bucknell (4-5, 1-3) – Nov. 11th 12 P.M. Christy Mathewson Stadium Lewisburg, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

If Georgetown-Lafayette last week didn’t quite reach high enough on the ugly meter, Georgetown-Bucknell Saturday could ramp things up a peg or two. The Hoyas head to Central Pennsylvania with their offense in complete disarray. Any positive momentum the “O” was riding when Gunther Johnson (50% comp, 153 ypg, 4 TDs 4 INTs) took over as the starter is long gone. The Arizona transfer is coming off his worst game since taking over as the starter (76 yards 4 INTs) so confidence at this point could be an issue. While Bucknell’s defense is not as good as previous editions (25.5 ppg allowed, 3rd in PL), it’s still more than capable of shutting down the Hoya’s “O”. With virtually no rushing attack the Hoyas best chance to put up points is on big plays and short fields. Johnson can’t afford to miss on any opportunities to connect with Michael Dereus downfield. Georgetown has proven incapable of going on lengthy drives all season.

Like Georgetown, Bucknell continues to have issues on offense in league play. After Matt Muh’s subpar performance against Lehigh’s porous defense, Bison Head Coach Joe Susan is once again turning the offense over to Joe Chiarolanzio (111 ypg 4 TDs 5 INTs). The lack of production through the air has been an issue for the last 2+ seasons. What’s made this year’s offense especially weak is the lack of a rushing attack (53.3 ypg, 120th in FCS). Freshnock was able to break loose (174 yards 3 TDs) last week against Lehigh (who hasn’t?) and Joey DeFloria is expected to play after battling an injury in recent weeks so there is some reason for optimism heading into the weekend. Even with DeFloria and Freshnock in the backfield Bucknell’s offensive line must deal with a very capable Hoya front 7. BU must pay special attention to Hoya DE is Khristian Tate. The sophomore is making a strong case (10.5 TFL, 5.5 Sacks, 2 FF) for All-League honors.

This game really comes down to Bucknell’s offense being slightly better than Georgetown’s. With the return of DeFloria and the added emotion of being at home on Senior Day, the Bison should have the upper hand. The key will be avoiding turnovers, a big problem all season, and getting the DeFloria/Freshnock duo rolling. This game likely won’t be 7-0 but it still won’t rack up any points on aesthetic scoreboard.

Prediction: Bucknell 17 Georgetown 10

Colgate (5-4, 3-1) at Lafayette (3-6, 3-1) – Nov. 11th 12:30 P.M. Fisher Stadium Easton, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

First place is on the line this Saturday when red hot Colgate rolls into College Hill to face Lafayette. The Red Raiders are coming off their bye week so they enter this crucial late season showdown well rested. Prior to their bye Colgate outscored their 3 league opponents by a whopping 101 points, 123-22. Grant Breneman’s emergence at quarterback has made a world of difference for the Raider offense. The “O” was a no go the first 4 games of the year but since the Cornell game in late September the unit has been extremely impressive due to its balance (181 ypg rushing, 166 ypg passing). Colgate has still remained a run first team as they’ve rushed the ball 170 more times than they’ve aired it out. Lafayette’s staunch defense (7.5 ppg allowed in PL play) will easily be facing their toughest test since the non-conference portion of the schedule.

The most “obvious observation” in this game is stating that Lafayette must score to win (9.5 ppg in PL play). The Leopard’s anemic offense reached a new level of futility last week against Georgetown but amazingly their lone TD was good enough to capture a 7-0 win. The main issue remains a rushing attack that currently ranks 122nd (25 ypg) in FCS. The Leopards have played 9 games and their leading rusher DeSean Brown has 123 yards! The reality is, Lafayette has struggled to run the ball since Ross Scheuerman last suited in 2014. As a result of the anemic ground attack freshman QB Sean O’Malley has had to carry the entire offense while playing behind an offensive line that continues to struggle. If the Leopards want to keep their title hopes alive O’Malley needs to make timely throws and avoid big mistakes. Colgate’s front 7, led by Pat Afriyie, will put a lot of pressure on the Leopard signal caller. The key is surviving the rush and get the ball in the hands of his talented pass catchers. If Lafayette can put up 17+ points they might have a chance.

While on paper this is a huge game in the race for Patriot League Championship there’s a sense it will be rather anticlimactic because Colgate has proven to be the much better team to this point of the season. The fact that Lafayette is competing for the league title in Mid-November alone is a tremendous accomplishment for 1st year Head Coach John Garrett. Look for Colgate to win a methodical battle and ensure they’re playing for at least a share of the league title in the final week.

Prediction: Colgate 27 Lafayette 10

Holy Cross (4-6, 3-2) at Lehigh (3-6, 3-1) – Nov. 11th 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming – Patriot League Network

Arguably, the two most inconsistent teams in the Patriot League this season square off on Saturday when the Crusaders invade the Lehigh Valley to take on the Mountain Hawks. Despite all the ups and downs, Lehigh is still two victories away from clinching at least a share of the Patriot League Title and its second straight playoff appearance. The Mountain Hawks are coming off a throttling of Bucknell which was easily their most complete game of the year. Lehigh was able to force 4 turnovers and the defense gave up the fewest total yards (342) and points (21) all season in the win. The “D” will need to carry the momentum and positive mojo over to this week if they want to hold down the far more potent Crusader offense. Peter Pujals is likely the best quarterback Lehigh has faced this season. The 5th year senior is coming off a great performance against Fordham where he demonstrated the ability to efficiently carve up a defense with his arm (175 yards, 2 TDs) and his legs (82 yards).

Holy Cross is trying to end their season on a 3 game winning streak which would likely give them a 2nd place finish in the final Patriot League standings. The Crusaders have shown quite a bit of fight on both sides of the ball under Interim Coach Brian Rock in recent weeks. Holy Cross showed their potential early in the year before falling into a bizarre malaise that ultimately cost Tom Gilmore his job. As their season comes to an end this week (week 12 bye), the team that started the year seems to have reappeared, at least to a point. The Crusaders put forth a very good performance against Fordham last week in a dominating 42-20 win. The win meant there was a 62 point turnaround from last year’s train wreck (54-14 loss) at Yankee Stadium. Holy Cross unleashed a rushing attack (354 yards) that had not been seen since 2013. Coming off such a performance, Gabe Guild, Miles Alexander and Peter Pujals have to be licking their chops as they set to face the 119th ranked (249.5 ypg allowed) rush defense in FCS.

Lehigh thumped Holy Cross 46-14 last year in Worcester in a game that Pujals didn’t play in. After reversing the 2016 Fordham debacle last week on the road, one of the all-time great Crusader’s quarterbacks has to be eyeing a final measure of revenge to close out his college career. Lehigh’s offense will put up points as usual but their defense will once again prove it’s not championship material. Pujals gets the last laugh against the Mountain Hawks.

Prediction: Holy Cross 47 Lehigh 31

 

 

MVFC – Week 11 Preview

MVFC LogoWeek 11 in the FCS season…the penultimate weekend for all but 24 teams. Up to 6 MVFC teams could theoretically be playing after Thanksgiving. I don’t believe any conference has ever had 6 teams in the playoffs before, so that seems pretty unlikely, but stranger things have happened. Two of the games involve matchups of two teams that are in that 6-team “possible playoffs” group, with one involving two top-10 ranked teams.

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

For reference, I use the AGS poll numbers for rankings and all stats listed are only in MVFC play from here on out (unless otherwise stated).

So, here are the games this week:
12:00 PM – #13 Western Illinois (6-3, 3-3 MVFC) at Indiana State (0-9, 0-6 MVFC)
1:00 PM – Youngstown State (4-5, 2-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (4-5, 2-4 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #21 Illinois State (6-3, 4-2 MVFC) at #5 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-2 MVFC)
2:00 PM – #19 Northern Iowa (5-4, 4-2 MVFC) at Missouri State (3-6, 2-4 MVFC)
2:30 PM – #10 South Dakota (7-2, 4-2 MVFC) at #4 North Dakota State (8-1, 5-1 MVFC)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.

#13 Western Illinois at Indiana State

Last Week:

  • Western Illinois won at Illinois State, 31-14
  • Indiana State lost to Youngstown State, 66-24

History:
The Leathernecks and Sycamores have faced off 40 times starting in 1967, with Western holding the 25-15 advantage. WIU has won the last 4 games against INSU. Last year’s game was a 1-point Homecoming win where the game was back and forth until Western took the lead for good on a 41-yard Nathan Knuffman FG with just under 12 minutes left in the game. The last game played at Terre Haute was WIU QB Sean McGuire’s “coming out party” where he threw for 332 yards and 1 TD and ran for 28 yards and 1 TD in an OT victory.

Western Illinois is coming of a huge win over in-state rival Illinois State to set them up well for a strong push at the end of the season. Within the MVFC, the Leathernecks are averaging, on both sides of the ball, 31.2 points per game. Their weakness has primarily been at defending the pass, although they switched up some new people at a few positions for the game against the Redbirds and were much more effective at stopping that aspect of ILSU’s game. One example of this is Soph DB Mike Viti, who has played in all but one game this season, but has been used sparingly until last weekend when he had 8 tackles and a couple of pass breakups (including a spectacular one that prevented a HUGE ILSU completion…possibly TD). On offense, WIU relies a bit more on the pass, although they have been effective at running when necessary for short gains. WR Jaelon Acklin still leads the conference in receiving yards with 142.5 ypg, although Western was also effective against Illinois State by mixing things up and going to different receivers at times. Both WIU FG kickers (Sam Crosa for shorter kicks, Nathan Erickson for longer kicks) are still perfect on the season with FGs.

Indiana State was completely steamrolled last weekend by Youngstown State. At 0-9, they’re obviously WAY out of the playoff picture at this point, but they could still play spoiler to a couple of teams who are still in the hunt. INSU is last in the MVFC in both points allowed (50.3 ppg) and points scored (14.5 ppg). They are last in rushing and passing on both sides of the ball as well. That being said, they do have a few key players at positions that can turn a game around if the opposition isn’t careful. RB LeMonte Booker is averaging just under 78 ypg and has 3 TDs in MVFC action and had 167 yards against YSU last weekend. TE Jaquet McClendon has around 58 ypg and 2 TDs including 101 yards against YSU. WR Bob Pugh has caught for just over 55 ypg and 1 TD as well as handling kick and punt return duties for the Sycamores.

Western is obviously favored in this game by quite a bit, but when you have a situation where you’re coming off a huge win over a big rival and the other team is a MVFC team with essentially nothing to lose, that’s when Admiral Ackbar shows up. The Leathernecks need to treat this game at ISU like last week’s game at ISU…pressure the QB, force turnovers, and get the win. I think that INSU might keep it close in the first half, but WIU seems to crank it up a notch in the second half and will pull away, eventually winning by about 30.

Youngstown State (4-5, 2-4 MVFC) at Southern Illinois

Last Week:

  • Youngstown State won at Indiana State, 66-24
  • Southern Illinois lost to Missouri State, 36-28

History:
The Penguins and Salukis have faced off 28 times starting in 1965. YSU holds a 12-15-1 series lead and won last year’s meeting, 21-14, in Ohio.

Last week, Youngstown State’s #3 QB (and part-time WR) Ricky Davis demolished the Sycamore defense with a total of 447 offensive yards and 6 TDs en route to putting up their highest point total ever against a MVFC foe (66 points). Prior to that game, the “revolving door” of their QB position was “leading” their offense to a “whopping” 24.4 ppg average, so I think it’s fair to say that this combination seemed to outperform expectations and makes it hard to use previous stats to evaluate things. Then again, it was Indiana State and, as previously mentioned, they are ranked last in the conference in most defensive categories. However you look at it, the Penguins do have a solid ground game, with RB Tevin McCaster averaging 77 ypg with 7 TDs rushing. On the other side of the ball, YSU is pretty good against the pass, ranking 3rd in the conference, but they have been giving up 188 ypg against the run. LB Armand Dellovade leads the team with 51 tackles against MVFC teams w/ 2 sacks, and they have a couple of decent safeties with Kyle Hegedus and Jalyn Powell, but the D-Line just isn’t what it was last year (I mean…how could it be when they lost two NFL-level linemen).

Southern Illinois was looking like they had an outside chance at a playoff spot…that is, until their starting QB Sam Straub, the brightest part of their offense, suffered a season-ending broken hand injury a couple of weeks ago. In last week’s game, both QB Tanner Hearn and Safety Matt DeSomer were given a chance to take over the QB role and while DeSomer actually led the team in rushing with 74 yards and Hearn was able to throw 3 TDs, they still weren’t able to put together the win over “bottom half” team Missouri State. The Saluki defense isn’t too bad against the pass, with S Ryan Neal leading the team with 47 tackles in MVFC games, but like Youngstown State, is not great against the run.

So, we’ve got two teams, neither of which will be playing in the playoffs this year. I think that if SIU had a healthy Straub at QB, then the two teams would probably be fairly equal, but without that offensive spark, I think YSU has the advantage. YSU’s offense should be able to pretty much move the ball at will against a soft SIU D-line. Penguins by 7.

#21 Illinois State at #5 South Dakota State

Last Week:

  • Illinois State lost to Western Illinois, 31-14
  • South Dakota State beat North Dakota State, 33-21

History: The Redbirds and Jackrabbits have met 7 times starting in 2008. ILSU has the 4-3 series lead and last year’s matchup was a 38-21 Redbird victory in Normal.

Illinois State really needs one more win to be in the playoff picture. They were hoping that win could come against in-state rival Western Illinois last Saturday, but that was not to be. So now, the Redbirds are looking to try to “steal” at least one win out of their last two against two of the top teams in the conference. Illinois State’s biggest strength is their defense. Despite giving up 31 points to WIU last weekend, they’re still averaging under 20 ppg allowed. This is primarily due to them only allowing just over 115 yards per game on the ground. Passing teams can get a little more traction though, with ISU giving up 245 ypg through the air. LB Tyree Horton is the team’s tackles leader with 41 tackles in 6 MVFC games and 1.5 sacks. DB Davontae Harris gets in on 37 tackles w/ 2 sacks, 2 INTs and 6 pass breakups against MVFC teams. The Redbird offense is in the top half of the conference for total yardage and for rushing and passing individually, but not in scoring, so they have a bit of trouble converting ball movement to points. RB James Robinson is one of only two MVFC rushers who are averaging over 100 ypg in MVFC games and has 6 TDs, and RB Markel Smith is a young (Soph) talent who adds in just a bit over 53 ypg and 2 TDs. He also handles some of the kick return duties, although I don’t know if he’ll be 100% this week after getting briefly knocked out following a severe hit on a kickoff return last weekend. WRs Christian Gibbs and Spencer Schnell are both averaging between 83 and 90 ypg in MVFC games and each have 3 receiving TDs.

South Dakota State has already reached 7 wins and with the win last weekend over North Dakota State, should be considered a near lock for the playoffs. What they’re playing for the rest of the season is a good playoff seed, which would allow them to not have to be funneled through Fargo again in the postseason. The Jackrabbits have the best scoring offense in the MVFC, putting 36.8 ppg on the board against fellow MVFC teams. Their passing offense is led by QB Taryn Christion, who is throwing for over 281 ypg with 16 TDs and only 3 INTs. TE Dallas Goedert is having a stellar year, currently one of only two MVFC players with over 100 ypg. He also has 3 TDs. WR Jake Wieneke is having, for him, a down year, averaging only ~61 ypg and has 6 TDs in conference play. They also have a solid O-Line, having allowed only 7 sacks. SDSU has had some struggles this year at preventing the run, currently ranked 7th in the conference and allowing 180 ypg on the ground. LB Christian Rozeboom is their best defensive player, averaging 11 tackles per game, second only behind WIU’s Brett Taylor. Despite their issues with the run game, they were able to hold NDSU, one of the top running teams in the FCS, to only 108 rushing yards last weekend, so they do have the ability to play at a higher level at times.

Illinois State has been rather up and down this season and were able to slow down the offense of South Dakota, but also got beat by strong passing teams like Northern Arizona, Southern Illinois, and Western Illinois. The teams that beat South Dakota State however, were teams that had pretty good running games and good pass defenses…although…they did beat NDSU last weekend. I feel like Illinois State has a bit more to play for this week, needing a win to get into the playoffs, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to overcome a hot Jackrabbits team. On the other hand…like WIU at INSU after WIU’s big emotional win last weekend…this has the makings of a “trap game”. I guess what I’m saying is that this one feels really hard for me to pick. I gotta go with one though, and I think Coach Stig is experienced enough to not allow his guys to fall into the trap of having a “letdown” after the NDSU game, so I say the Jackrabbits win this one by a Dallas Goedert TD reception…7 points.

#19 Northern Iowa at Missouri State

Last Week:

  • Northern Iowa beat South Dakota, 34-29
  • Missouri State won at Southern Illinois, 36-28

History: The Panthers and Bears have met on the gridiron 37 times starting in 1980. UNI has a dominating 32-5 lead in the all-time series and have won the last 11 matchups. Last year game was actually a close one though, with UNI pulling out a 38-35 win in Cedar Falls.

Northern Iowa started the season somewhat rough, going 2-3 in their first 5 games before even getting to the toughest part of their schedule and was looking like they might not make the playoffs this year. But then, the Panthers turned things around with wins over SDSU and YSU. A loss to NDSU put them essentially with their backs against the wall heading into a tough matchup with South Dakota…but the Panthers were able to pull out a big win and now finish out the season with two (should be) much easier opponents. If they win both games, there’s a high probability they’ll be playing postseason football. UNI hasn’t had a stellar offense most of the season, but have had strong performances from RB Marcus Weymiller, who currently leads the MVFC with 110 ypg against MVFC teams and was out for the first 5 games. One area where they have had success most of the season is with their run defense, led by LB Jared Farley with 57 tackles and 1 sack in conference and with heavy pressure behind the line of scrimmage by LB Rickey Neal (12 TFLs including 7.5 sacks…both #1 in the MVFC). A couple of solid DBs (Malcolm Washington and Elijah Campbell) round out backfield with tackle numbers in the 40s and 5 total INTs between the two of them in MVFC games.

Missouri State picked up their third win of the season last week against an SIU team that hadn’t been doing too badly until their QB was knocked out for the season with a broken hand. They’ve shown some signs of offensive life throughout the season, but have struggled in giving up points, allowing the second-most amount to MVFC teams with 38.5 ppg average. Primarily, this is against the ground game, with MSU allowing 214 ypg rushing, 2nd to last in the MVFC although DL Colby Isbell is tied for second in the conference with 4 sacks in MVFC games so far and has 4 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery. The Bears offense is weighted heavily towards their ground attack, which is the only MVFC school over 200 ypg running the ball (against MVFC opponents), with a 206.5 average. QB Peyton Huslig is the team’s primary runner, with 80 ypg and 2 TDs, and RB Jason Randall has 52 ypg and 4 TDs. Probably the biggest “game changer” for the Bears though, is WR and return specialist Deion Holliman who leads the MVFC in both kick returns (23.4 yards per return) and punt returns (14.4 yards per return, and there’s nobody else in the conference even in double digits). He’s also had a punt return TD, so Holliman does have the ability to get MSU in good field position at times.

Northern Iowa is playing some of their best football of the year right now and need to win out to make the playoffs. Missouri State, however, really doesn’t have much to play for other than pride. It is Senior Day for MSU, but I think that the newfound running offense of the Panthers will be able to plow through MSU’s porous run defense. Decent kick returns by Holliman might get them in position for a score or two, but UNI has a pretty decent defense and I think they’ll be able to hold the scoring to a minimal amount. I think that UNI will come away with their 6th win of the year, 12th in a row against MSU, and put them in a good position to finish out the season strong. I think it’ll be Northern Iowa by 17.

#10 South Dakota at #4 North Dakota State

Last Week:

  • South Dakota lost at Northern Iowa, 34-29
  • North Dakota State lost at South Dakota State, 33-21

History: The Coyotes (kai-oats) and Bison (bi-zon) have met up 81 times starting back in 1903. NDSU has the series lead at 53-26-2 and have won 8 out of the last 10 matchups. Actually, since 1988, NDSU has won 20 out of the 22 games. Last year’s game was a 28-21 Bison victory in Vermillion.

South Dakota started the season by winning their first 6 straight games and were looking like they’d sail into the playoffs for the first time as a DI team. But then, a big loss at Illinois State and a big win over Southern Illinois…a win that seriously banged up their primary offensive weapon, QB Chris Streveler…led to another loss at Northern Iowa. Now South Dakota is in a situation where they do have 7 wins, but I could actually see a scenario where they miss out on the playoffs if they happen to lose the last two games of the season, especially if they aren’t all that competitive in them. Considering the games are against two of the strongest teams in the conference, they have a bit of a hill to climb to prove that they’re playoff-worthy. There’s no denying that USD has the strongest passing offense in the conference, putting up over 340 ypg (nearly 60 ahead of #2) led by Streveler, who has thrown 14 TDs and 4 INTs and also runs for 41 ypg and has two rushing TDs in MVFC play. He’s been getting banged up quite a bit throughout the season, although it seems like the last few games it’s really started to take it’s toll on him, sitting out most of the SIU game (he probably could have played after halftime if they really needed him…they didn’t), and then being visibly not quite 100% against UNI. The Coyotes have been fairly decent on defense, holding MVFC teams to 23 ppg and have been a little stronger against the run than they have been against the pass. They’re #2 in the conference with 18 sacks in their 6 conference games with three defensive players averaging over 1 sack every 2 games. DB Andrew Gray leads the team in tackles with 43 and DL Darin Greenfield is second in the conference in Tackles for Loss with 8 in 6 games.

North Dakota State also started the season on a hot streak, although theirs lasted a little longer than South Dakota’s. NDSU won their first 8 in a row before falling last weekend to rival SDSU. In pretty much all defensive categories, NDSU is the #1 team in the conference. LB Nick DeLuca has returned from an early season injury to become the team’s top tackler, averaging 6.8 tackles per game, which doesn’t sound like much, but there’s so many good defensive players on the Bison squad that everyone seems to get in on the action, so the “huge numbers” are spread around a bit more than you usually see on most teams. FS Trey Dempsey leads the conference in INTs with 4 in their 6 conference games, and Safeties Robbie Grimsley and James Hendricks have 2 each. Offensively, NDSU has been down a little the last couple of games with top RB Lance Dunn being out with an injury. SDSU was able to force QB Easton Stick into an uncharacteristically bad game where he threw 3 INTs, was sacked 3 times, and had a fumble, but in general, Stick has been very efficient and effective for most of the season. RB Bruce Anderson has picked up some of the slack of Dunn’s absense, but isn’t quite on Lance’s level, rushing for 70 ypg and 2 TDs against MVFC teams.

Outside of the 2013 “Perfect Season”, every year back to 2011 NDSU has lost 1 game in the regular season…only 1. NDSU hasn’t lost back-to-back games since 2009, when they were just starting to get their feet in the MVFC and finished 3-8 overall…if there’s one thing NDSU knows how to do (other than winning), it’s recovering from the rare loss. Oh…and Carson Wentz will be in the house…along with the family of Lukas Kusters (If you don’t know the story, grab a box of tissues and go watch this). Streveler is banged up and not playing at 100%…and I just don’t see this going well for South Dakota in this situation. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout…USD is still a really good team…but I don’t see the Bison losing this one. I think North Dakota State by 12.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1107 – WEEK 11 PREVIEW

Kris & Lance have two themes going throughout this show. One is potential upsets in trap games and the other is how any of these games can affect playoff chances for each of these teams.

Games they look forward to are:

Elon Phoenix @ New Hampshire Wildcats

South Dakota Yotes @ NDSU Bizon

Illinois State Redbirds @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Charleston Southern Buccaneers @ Kennesaw State

Central Connecticut State @ Duquesne

Potential trap games to possibly keep an eye on…

Richmond @ James Madison

Southern Utah @ UC-Davis

*Lance climbs way out on a limb and tells you why it is possible that Missouri State could cause Northern Iowa some trouble after the gauntlet UNI has just been through.

Possible does not mean “bet the farm” by the way. I do not want a bunch of NDSU guys losing their homesteads over this one.

Click the play button and let the “What iffing” begin.

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The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket – Week 10

Here is a playoff bracket based on current standings off the AGS Top 25 Poll.  Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both at larges and the seeds given the poll has been the most predictable at picking at larges and just this last week the AGS poll was in line exactly with the selection committee’s top 8. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess for automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines in the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together in the same format as the committee will use.

Link http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/fi…l_20170914.pdf

The Bracket

2017 FCS PLAYOFFS
First Round Second Round Quarterfinal Semifinal Championship Game
James Madison 1
Delaware Frisco, TX
Duquesne
Wofford 8
Furman
Southern Utah
South Dakota St 5
South Dakota
Weber St
North Dakota St 4
Stony Brook
Colgate
Central Arkansas 3 AnyGivenSaturday.com
Northern Iowa
Illinois St
Sam Houston State 6
Northern Arizona
San Diego
Elon 7
Western Carolina
Western Illinois
Jackonville St 2
Samford
Kennesaw State

The last four in (in order): Western Carolina, Northern Iowa, Delaware, Illinois St

The first four out (in order): Monmouth, Eastern Washington, McNeese St, Montana

Next four out (again, in order): New Hampshire, Nicholls St, Richmond, North Carolina Central

The seeds this week get a little bumped around with North Dakota St and South Dakota losing sending NDSU down to 4 and USD out of the seeded round. South Dakota St moves into the seeds at 5 flipping a popular bracket showing in Vermillion now in Brookings. Southern Utah is the first team out of the seeds and the highest ranked Big Sky team. It’s quite possible if they win out and someone ahead loses they may sneak into the seeded 8.

At larges, Monmouth was our first team out. Illinois State was the last team in. Given we are predicting Kennesaw St wins the Big South that would be quite the debate between the MVFC getting a 6th team in the bracket and a Big South squad that has won a lot of football games just not their conference. Also, North Carolina A&T would be well within the bracket, but as the MEAC projected winner and a celebration bowl participate they would not be in the bracket. If they lose finishing out the season they would probably be in the bracket erasing that ISU/Monmouth debate.

Also of note, both Southland squads McNeese St and Nicholls St look to finish the season with decent records. Both are out at the moment, but I’d expect quite the debate given both conference mates are seeded in the current bracket.

Conference Breakdown and First teams out

Auto Bids At larges
Big Sky Southern Utah Weber St
Northern Ariz
Big South Kennesaw St
CAA James Madison Elon
Stony Brook
Delaware
MVFC North Dakota St South Dakota St
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Northern Iowa
Illinois St
NEC Duquesne
OVC Jacksonville St
Patriot Colgate
Pioneer San Diego
Southern Wofford Furman
Samford
Western Carolina
Southland Central Arkansas Sam Houston St
First four out Next four out
Monmouth New Hampshire
Eastern Washington Nicholls St
McNeese St Richmond
Montana North Carolina Central

 

This will obviously change next week with new results.