The FCS Wedge – 2017-1212 – Round 4 PREVIEW

Lance & Kris have Josh back for the preview segment and they go into some good detail on our two semi final games this coming week.  It’s almost like these guys know what they are talking about.

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The FCS Wedge – 2017-1212 – Round 3 REVIEW

Lance & Kr is begin the show this week paying tribute to a legend of FCS coaching with the passing of Tubby Raymond. He lived a great life but the passing of this man is a great loss to our FCS community.

We welcome a new voice into the mixby this week with Josh Clixby as he adds some depth to the cast with a little more detailed X’s & O’s analysis.

A great show to give a listen to and get some perspective on last weekend playoff games.

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MVFC – Playoff Week 3 in Review

MVFC LogoFour total games this week. Two were exciting…the MVFC games were, for the most part…not. Everyone reading this is probably pretty well aware already that both JMU’s win over Weber State on a last-second FG and SHSU’s defeat of Kennesaw State were pretty darn exciting games. Not going to bury the lede on this one, so I’ll just go ahead and say that NDSU destroyed Wofford by 32 points and SDSU whomped all over New Hampshire by 42.

#7 Wofford (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (11-1)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
Wofford 3 7 0 0 10
NDSU 14 21 7 0 42

Quick Hits:

  • Wofford – FB Andre Stoddard ran for 18 yards on 6 carries, but had the only TD for the Terriers on a 3-yard run in the 2nd quarter
  • Wofford – PK Luke Carter had a 40-yard FG in the first quarter and kicked off three times averaging 63 yards per kickoff
  • Wofford – LB Colton Clemons led the team in tackling with 14 total and a fumble recovery
  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 184 yards and 3 TDs and ran for 49 yards and another TD
  • NDSU – RB Bruce Anderson ran for 62 yards and 2 TDs
  • NDSU – TEs Connor Wentz (cousin of that other Wentz guy), Jeff Illies, and RB Seth Wilson all had receiving TDs
  • NDSU – LB Nick DeLuca had 7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and a QB hurry

Wofford actually had the first points of the game on a 40-yard FG. They would hold that lead for roughly 3 minutes until NDSU hit on a 48-yard TD pass to take the lead for good. Another TD a few minutes later and the Bison were up 14-3 after one quarter. Wofford responded strongly with a TD of their own after a Bison fumble to pull within 4. Then…everything fell apart for the Terriers. NDSU drove down for another TD, Wofford took one play to fumble the ball which NDSU took down to the 3 yard line. Two plays later, they’d have TD. On the next kickoff, NDSU again forced a fumble taking over at Wofford’s 32 and turned it into another TD a few plays later. This would give NDSU a 35-10 lead heading into halftime. Outside of a late 3rd quarter TD, the Bison pretty much shut things down in the second half, allowing 77 yards and zero points while eating clock time with a couple of 5+ minute drives to close out the 4th quarter and finish with the 42-10 victory. Wofford put up 177 total offensive yards in this game, which is the fewest they put up all season (including against South Carolina) and NDSU’s 464 total offensive yards was the most that their defense has allowed all season as well.

Wofford finishes their 2017 season at 10-3 overall.
North Dakota State moves on to at 12-1 record and will host the 11-1 #6 seed Sam Houston State Bearkats next Friday night at 7 PM.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 15
Other predictions were:
Massey – 35-7 NDSU
Sagarin – 38-9 NDSU
Compughterratings.com – 37-8 NDSU

It was: Bison by 32
Looks like Sagarin was pretty much the closest on this one. I predicted Wofford hitting 10 points, but expected something more in the mid to high 20s for NDSU…not 40s.

New Hampshire (9-4) at #5 South Dakota State (10-2)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
UNH 0 0 7 7 14
SDSU 21 7 14 14 56

Quick Hits:

  • UNH – QB Trevor Knight threw for 236 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs while running for 14 yards
  • UNH – RB Evan Gray ran for 60 yards and a TD
  • UNH – WR Kieran Presley caught 7 passes for 133 yards and 1 TD
  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion had 190 yards and 2 TDs through the air and 48 yards and 1 TD on the ground
  • SDSU – RB Isaac Wallace led the team with 79 yards and 2 TDs, while RB Mikey Daniel had 42 and 1 TD
  • SDSU – WR Jake Wieneke had a great day, catching for 140 yards and 2 TDs and also running for 48 yards and 1 TD
  • SDSU – DBs Larenzo Williams and Marshon Harris each had INTs

As close as the NDSU game was in the first part of it…this was not. SDSU had 223 yards and 21 points…in the first quarter…on three TD drives. Another TD in the 2nd would give SDSU a 28-0 lead going into halftime. Into the 2nd half, the Jackrabbits again scored to go up 35-0 before UNH finally got their first points with about 4 minutes left in the 3rd. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, SDSU countered by returning the kickoff 99 yards for a TD. A couple more SDSU TDs in the 4th got them to 56 points and they gave up one more TD midway through the 4th quarter (I think they consider that “garbage time”), but would still fall 56-14. TE Dallas Goedert was taken out of the game fairly early with what appeared to be some type of ankle injury (I believe…don’t quote me on that), so it remains to be seen what condition he’ll be in for their game next weekend.

New Hampshire finishes out their season with a 9-5 overall record.
South Dakota State is now 11-2 and will head east to take on the #1 seed and undefeated defending national champion James Madison Dukes (who very nearly bit off more than they could chew in their narrow win over Weber State) at 3:30 Saturday afternoon.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 12-14 points.
Other Predictions:
Massey – 31-13 SDSU
Sagarin – 35-20 SDSU
Compughterratings.com – 35-7 SDSU

It was: Jackrabbits by 42
I don’t think anyone is too surprised by SDSU’s offense being able to put up 52 points on just about anyone although it wasn’t quite as expected in this game. I am impressed that they were able to hold New Hampshire to 14 considering they hadn’t held anyone to that or fewer since early October against SIU.

4 Teams left in the playoffs now. The #1 and #2 seeds both advanced…although as mentioned before, #1 got a huge scare from an unseeded team. All remaining teams are actually teams that were seeded, with #’s 5 and 6 also winning their games. Later this week I’ll preview both of next week’s games, since they both feature MVFC teams: #2 North Dakota State hosting #6 Sam Houston State at 7 PM on Friday and #5 South Dakota State at #1 James Madison at 3:30 PM Saturday afternoon.

MVFC – Playoffs Week 3 Preview

MVFC LogoWeek 3 of the FCS playoffs…the Quarterfinals. We are down to two MVFC teams left in the bracket now…the XDSU’s…Bison and Bunnies. At this point, pretty much all the “pretenders” have been eliminated. There are three unseeded teams still playing this weekend, but all three have had to win an opening round game, then upset a seeded team on the road last weekend to get here.
Here’s the full playoff bracket if you’d like to see what everyone is up to.

Since there are only 4 total games this week, I figured I’d just list them all, even though I’ll only be previewing the two with MVFC teams in them (numbers listed before team names are seeding numbers):

Weber State (11-2) at #1 James Madison (12-0) – 6:00 PM (Friday) on ESPN2
#7 Wofford (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (11-1) – 11:00 AM (Saturday) on ESPN2
New Hampshire (9-4) at #5 South Dakota State (10-2) – 2:00 PM (Saturday) on ESPN3
Kennesaw State (12-1) #6 Sam Houston State (11-1) – 7:30 PM (Saturday) on ESPN3
All games listed in Central time.

Now that we’re down to 4 total games and since the only other college football game going on this weekend is Army at Navy at 2 PM, they were thankfully able to stagger out the games a bit so that there should be little to no overlap between them (one exception is if the Wofford@NDSU goes over 3 hours, it will technically overlap with the UNH@SDSU game just a little). Big FCS fans should be able to catch all the games this weekend without having to resort to streaming on four devices at once.

#7 Wofford (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (11-1)

This Season/Last Week:

  • Wofford went 9-2 overall in the regular season with a win over fellow playoff team Furman. Their two losses were Samford, who was in the FCS playoffs as well, and South Carolina (an 8-4 SEC East team). Last weekend, they hosted Furman again (repeat of their season opener) and beat them 28-10 this time around.
  • North Dakota State went 10-1 in the regular season with wins over playoff teams Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, and South Dakota. Their only loss this season was to conference rival and current #5 seed South Dakota State. Last weekend, the Bison hosted San Diego (a repeat of last year’s first playoff game for NDSU) where they won 38-3.

History:
The Bison and Terriers have played each other only once in their histories, in the 2012 playoffs when Wofford fell to the #1-seeded Bison 14-7 en route to FCS Championship #2 (of 5 eventually).

In case you’ve been living under a rock all season, NDSU has one of the best defenses in the country (possibly THE best) ranking #2 in the FCS in passing yards allowed, #7 in rushing defense, #2 in scoring defense, and #1 in total defense, allowing an average of 232.6 yards per game. DL Aaron Steidl, LBs Nick DeLuca and Jabril Cox, and DBs Tre Dempsey and Robbie Grimsley have all received all-conference accolades, with Cox being named the MVFC newcomer of the year. On the other side of the ball, they have the #5 rushing offense and #2 scoring offense in the FCS. Their one “weak point” is the passing game, where they are ranked 90th in passing yards per game, however they are 12th in yards per completion and their QB Easton Stick is 5th in the FCS in passing efficiency. I’ve said it multiple times before…they don’t pass the ball often, but when they do, they are accurate. In general, the players and coaches have a ton of playoff experience (probably more than any other team in the playoffs) so to most of them, this is pretty much “business as usual”.

Wofford is an interesting team. Like NDSU, they have a great run game (7th in the FCS) and their stats say that they are near the bottom for passing offense (120th)…but like NDSU, they have that for good reason. Wofford runs a triple-option offense that forces defenders to pay attention to three possible runners…usually a couple of RBs (FB & HB) or the QB himself. The additional run game possibilities that this presents can be tricky for a team that isn’t very disciplined in sticking to their assignments. For Wofford, those possibilities include (Socon All-Conference first team) FB Andre Stoddard (averaging over 67 ypg and has 14 TDs) and HB Lennox McAfee (over 62 ypg and 6 TDs). You can also see HB Blake Morgan get in on both the run game and what little passing game they have, racking up just under 50 ypg w/ 8 TDs on the ground and leading the team with over 33 ypg and 1 TD receiving. They also have a couple of outstanding O-Linemen in Roo Daniels and Ross Demmel who can give the plays time to develop and open holes for those runners to move through. These guys contribute to an O-Line that is 7th in the FCS in sacks allowed.
On defense, they are 17th in the FCS in rushing yards allowed, 51st in passing yards allowed, 30th in scoring defense allowing 20.8 ppg, and 20th in total defense with 315.5 ypg allowed. They don’t get a great deal of pressure behind the line of scrimmage but they do have some talented D-Linemen in Miles Brown (9 tackles for loss) and Tyler Vaughn (2.5 tackles for loss, 3 QB hurries). LB Colton Clemons leads the team in tackles with 75 including 3 sacks, an INT, and a forced fumble. Further back is first-team All-Socon DB Devin Watson who leads the team with 4 interceptions in addition to his 54 tackles (3 for loss), 2 pass breakups, and a forced fumble.

Personally, I don’t think this is a great matchup for Wofford. They’re a great team, but they nearly always run and NDSU is one of the best at stopping the run. Pretty much the only way to beat NDSU’s defense is with a great performance from a strong passing team (like SDSU). I can’t really see Wofford putting up an SDSU-level passing performance. NDSU is a very disciplined team in a familiar situation (playoff football at the Fargodome) and I don’t think they’ll have much trouble sticking to their assignments and stopping the runners generally. The Bison offense is not quite as dominating, especially with the injury to star RB Lance Dunn, but the rest of the guys have still been able to put up points. Now, Wofford’s defense is no slouch, but they’re ranked in most categories somewhere in the range of the mid-upper defensive teams in the MVFC…YSU, ILSU, WIU, SDSU. Those four teams, NDSU put up between 20 and 27 points on and won all but the SDSU game. Most of the “predictions” I’ve seen have NDSU getting something like ~36 points. I’m not sure they’ll quite get there, but I think that where they do get to (my guess…around 25 points) will be enough to beat what Wofford is able to put up (I’m thinking maybe 10 points). So, I’m going with a Bison 15-point win for my prediction.

Other predictions (just for the fun of it, to see who’s more accurate):
Massey – 35-7 NDSU
Sagarin – 38-9 NDSU
Compughterratings.com – 37-8 NDSU

New Hampshire (9-4) at #5 South Dakota State (10-2)

This Season/Last Week:

  • New Hampshire ended up with an 8-4 record with wins over FBS Georgia Southern and playoff team Elon. Losses were to Holy Cross, Albany, playoff team Stony Brook, and the #1 seed in the playoffs, James Madison. In round 1 of the playoffs, they beat NEC champ Central Connecticut 14-0 at home, then last weekend beat the #4 seed Central Arkansas on the road, 21-15.
  • South Dakota State went 9-2 in the regular season with losses to Youngstown State and Northern Iowa in the first half of the season. They have wins over playoff teams Western Illinois, North Dakota State, and South Dakota and last week in their first game of the playoffs, won a rematch with Northern Iowa, 37-22.

History: The Jackrabbits and Wildcats have never played each other.

New Hampshire hasn’t, for the most part, been blowing things up with huge numbers, but they have put together a solid season that saw them just make it into the playoffs. They have proven that their selection wasn’t a complete fluke by winning their first two games. On offense, they have the 20th best passing offense in the FCS but don’t really have much of a run game. They’re led by QB Trevor Knight who puts up ~246 passing ypg and 25 TDs with 8 INTs and frequently throws to All-CAA First Team WR Neil O’Connor, who’s caught over 104 ypg this season with 10 receiving TDs. OL Jake Kennedy is on the All-CAA second team this season and helps give the offense time to air out the ball. The defensive side of the ball for the Wildcats is headlined by LB Quinlen Dean, who averages 9.1 tackles per game and has 11.5 tackles for loss this year, plus a forced fumble, and two interceptions. DL Rick Holt is the team’s #2 tackler, but leads the team in sacks with 9 and was selected to the All-CAA second team. CBs Isiah Perkins (5 interceptions, 8 pass breakups) and Prince Smith, Jr. (2016 CAA Defensive Rookie of the Year, 8 pass breakups, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble) are the men to watch out for in the backfield. Overall, the Wildcat defense (that sounds odd to me…is the “wildcat” an offense? ?) has thrived on creating turnovers, sitting at 7th in the FCS with 27 turnovers (18 INTs, 9 fumbles) gained.

South Dakota State is well known for having one of the most potent passing attacks of any FCS team over the last couple of years (although is down a bit this year), led by QB Taryn Christion, who is an excellent passer (257 ypg, 31 TDs, 8 INTs) but also decent at running the ball (39 ypg, 8 TDs). Christion is throwing to two receivers (one a TE technically) who will both likely be on NFL rosters next year, WR Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Goedert. Wieneke is having something of a “down” year with only 60 ypg and 13 TDs, but already held many MVFC records for receiving (yards in a season, yards in a career, TD receptions in a career, etc.) before the season even started. Goedert meanwhile, has been carving out another phenomenal season that has seen the TE catch for 87 ypg and 6 TDs. Giving protection to their offense is one of the best O-Linemen in the MVFC, Jacob Ohnesorge. The big man on the defense is actually still only a sophomore…LB Christian Rozeboom with 9.4 tackles per game, but DB Jordan Brown has also come up big at times, sitting at second on the team in tackles with 62, recording 3 INTs, 6 pass breakups, 9 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles. Their weakness on defense is against the run, where they give up just under 170 yards per game on the ground. Overall though, SDSU feels like a much more well-rounded team than they have in the past (where they’ve often been almost an “offense only” team).

So SDSU’s weakness is the run game…well it’s a good thing New Hampshire has such a great…um…oh…101st in the FCS rushing offense. Well, UNH’s weakness is the passing game, where…um…SDSU is 15th in the FCS. So, needless to say, this isn’t a great matchup for the Wildcats. They have shown that they can be tough and stay in games with good teams, but this one doesn’t look good for them to do the same in. Another factor could be the weather. It’s supposed to be around 26 at kickoff and sunny, which is fine, and I’m not saying UNH should have any more trouble with it than SDSU will…New Hampshire gets pretty cold at times too…but there’s a bit of wind predicted throughout the morning (no, not Mt. Washington-level wind) and if that should continue into the afternoon, it could affect the passing game of both teams somewhat. Personally, I think SDSU should win this one fairly easily (as easy as any game this far into the playoffs can be). If there’s not much wind, I think the Jackrabbits win by about 32-18. If there is a decent bit of wind, then probably closer to 24-12, but still SDSU wins. So, essentially, SDSU by ~12-14 points either way.

Other predictions (just for the fun of it, to see who’s more accurate):
Massey – 31-13 SDSU
Sagarin – 35-20 SDSU
Compughterratings.com – 35-7 SDSU

Just a couple of other quick things in MVFC land that came out over this last week:

South Dakota QB Chris Streveler was announced as one of the three finalists for the Walter Payton Award (top offensive player in FCS) along with Sam Houston State QB Jeremiah Briscoe and UC Davis WR Keelan Doss. If he wins, he will be the first USD player and first MVFC player to win the award. Other MVFC finalists for the award include Shakir Bell (Indiana State) in 2011, Matt Barr (Western Illinois) in 2010, Deji Karim (Southern Illinois) in 2009, Herb Donaldson (Western Illinois) in 2008, Eric Sanders (Northern Iowa) in 2007, and Arkee Whitlock (Southern Illinois) in 2006).

Western Illinois LB Brett Taylor was announced as one of the the three finalists for the Buck Buchanan Award (top defensive player in the FCS) along with James Madison DE Andrew Ankrah and Jacksonville State DE Darius Jackson. If Taylor should win, he would become the third Leatherneck to win the award, and the fifth MVFC player to do so. I’m having a hard time finding the list of previous finalists, but the previous MVFC players to win it are Karter Schult (Northern Iowa) in 2016, Kyle Emanuel (North Dakota State) in 2014, Edgerton Hartwell (Western Illinois) in 2000, and James Milton (Western Illinois) in 1998. For Western Illinois, previous finalists for the award include Kyle Glazier in 2010 and Cyron Brown in 1997.

South Dakota State WR Jake Wieneke traveled to NYC as one of the 13 finalists for the Campbell Trophy (top scholar-athlete in all of college football). He was one of three FCS players to be named a finalist and is a Physical/Teacher Ed major with a 3.63 GPA. This year’s award went to Virginia LB Micah Kiser.

MVFC – Playoffs Week 2 in Review

MVFC LogoAnother round of playoffs and two more MVFC see their seasons come to a close. Neither are huge surprises for the most part…one game involved two MVFC teams and somebody has to lose there, and the other was a team that barely made it past the first round but made it a competitive game with a seeded team.

Northern Iowa (8-4) at #5 South Dakota State (9-2)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
UNI 0 7 0 15 22
SDSU 10 16 0 11 37

Quick Hits:

  • UNI – QB Eli Dunne threw for 287 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT.
  • UNI – RB Marcus Weymiller, who had a huge game against SDSU early in the season, only ran for 59 yards and caught for 39 yards.
  • UNI – LB Duncan Ferch led the team with 12 tackles, but it was LB Jared Farley who “stole the show” with 10 tackles, in addition to a 1-yard TD run in the 4th quarter.
  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion threw for 237 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. He also ran for 38 yards and 1 TD.
  • SDSU – TE Dallas Goedert caught 6 passes for 83 yards and 1 TD.
  • SDSU – LB Logan Backhaus led the team with 8 tackles including 1 for loss, 1 forced fumble, and 2 pass breakups.
  • SDSU – PK Chase Vinatieri hit 3 FGs (29, 55, 44) and went 2/2 on XP attempts (because of score differential, SDSU went for 2 on two of their TD plays)

SDSU ramped up an early lead with a FG and TD in the first. UNI would answer early in the 2nd with their own TD to pull within 3, but then the Jackrabbits put together a string of drives that chewed through the rest of the half while allowing them to tack on two more TDs and a FG to take a 26-7 lead into halftime. Some strong defense and a couple of turnovers ensured that neither team would score in the 3rd quarter, but then in the 4th, things kicked into high gear with scoring going back and forth. SDSU with a TD and FG, UNI with two TDs…but unfortunately for the Panthers, it wasn’t quite enough, as they fell by the final score of 37-22. The Jackrabbits were able to nearly completely shut down UNI’s run game, only allowing 82 yards, and held onto the ball for over 10 minutes more than the Panthers did.

Northern Iowa’s season comes to a close with a 8-5 overall record.
South Dakota State is now 10-2 and will host unseeded 9-4 New Hampshire next Saturday afternoon.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Panthers by 4
It was: Jackrabbits by 15
South Dakota State’s defense really stepped up, limiting a balanced Panther offense to their 3rd lowest point total of the season (the other two were against playoff teams Southern Utah and NDSU).

South Dakota (8-4) at #6 Sam Houston State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
USD 7 7 14 14 42
SHSU 14 27 0 13 54

Quick Hits:

  • USD – QB Chris Streveler threw for 520 yards and 5 TDs plus 2 INTs and ran for 51 yards and a TD
  • UDS – WR Brandt Van Roekel caught 234 of those yards and 1 TD. Four other players had receiving TDs and three of them went over 50 receiving yards each
  • USD – DB Andrew Gray led the team with 13 tackles and twin brother, LB Alex Gray had 4 tackles and an INT
  • SHSU – QB Jeremiah Briscoe threw for 505 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT
  • SHSU – WR Nathan Stewart caught 180 yards and 1 TD, while WR Davion Davis caught 131 yards and 3 TDs
  • SHSU – RB Corey Avery ran for 100 yards and 2 TDs
  • SHSU – LB Hunter Brown led the Bearcats in tackles with 15

The first half was one of those “two for me, one for you” kinda situations with the Bearcats picking up scores twice as fast as the Coyotes. They turned a 14-7 lead after 1 quarter into a 41-14 halftime lead…however, USD wasn’t going to go down without a fight. South Dakota’s defense held the line in the 3rd, while their offense picked up two TD passes and then another TD run early in the 4th to pull within 6. SHSU got a FG, which was then answered by a 3-play, 48 second drive culminating in a a 58-yard TD pass to bring the Coyotes within 2 (44-42). This time though, the South Dakota defense was not able to stop the Bearcats offense, with them snagging another TD and a FG to end up winning 54-42.

To the surprise of pretty much nobody, the two QBs in this game combined for 1,025 yards and 9 TDs passing. Streveler won the QB battle with a few more yards and 1 more TD, but lost the war, with the difference being a couple of FGs and a bit more of a ground game for the Bearcats. Pretty much outside of USD in the 3rd quarter, defense was not really a thing that occurred in this game.

South Dakota ends their season with an 8-5 overall record.
Sam Houston State will spend next Saturday night hosting unseeded 12-1 Kennesaw State.

My Pick in Review:

I said: “A score of something in the range of a 58-52 SHSU win”…essentially Bearcats by 6
It was: Bearcats by 12
I was a little off on South Dakota’s score, but within 4 of Sam Houston State’s. A solid pick.

San Diego (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (10-1)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SD 0 0 0 3 3
NDSU 14 3 21 0 38

Quick Hits:

  • SD – QB Anthony Lawrence threw for 107 yards and 1 INT
  • SD – S Colton Giorgi led the team with 11 tackles, while DE Jonathan Petersen had 3 sacks and a forced fumble, recovered by LB Kim Mahoney
  • SD – PK Patrick Murray had the lone score for San Diego with a 48-yard FG in the 4th quarter
  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 171 yards and 3 TDs and ran for 54 yards and 1 TD
  • NDSU – RB Bruce Anderson continued to fill the Dunn-sized hole in the run game with a 112 yard performance, while also catching a 48-yard TD pass
  • NDSU LB Chris Board led the team in tackles with 6, while SS Robbie Grimsley had a forced fumble and recovery, FS Jaxon Brown had an INT and LB Nick DeLuca had 2 sacks and an INT

San Diego has a good team, but they just ran into a Bison buzzsaw on Saturday. NDSU had a couple of TDs in the 1st and a FG in the 2nd to take a 17-0 halftime lead. In the 3rd, NDSU shut the door on the visiting Toreros, putting up three more TDs to go ahead 38-0. In the 4th, NDSU eased up on the gas a bit and SD was able to get a FG for their only points of the day, but still went down by a score of 38-3.

San Diego ends their season at 10-2 overall.
North Dakota State is now 11-1 and will host the #7 seed, 10-2 Wofford, next Saturday afternoon.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 28
It was: Bison by 35
I thought it’d be a little closer than last year…it wasn’t.

We are now down to 8 teams left in the playoffs. The #1 and #2 seeds as well as numbers 5, 6, and 7 have all survived their first games, but #3, #4, and #8 were all taken down by unseeded teams…thus is the excitement of the playoffs. Thankfully next weekend’s slate of games are a bit more spaced out, and with much less other football going on, it’ll be much easier to keep an eye on most of the games live. Later this week I’ll preview the two MVFC games: #5 South Dakota State hosting New Hampshire at 2 PM Saturday, and #2 North Dakota State hosting #7 Wofford at 11 AM on Saturday. The other two games in the playoffs are #1 James Madison hosting Weber State at 6 PM on Friday evening, and #6 Sam Houston State bringing in Kennesaw State at 7:30 PM Saturday evening.

MVFC – Playoffs Round 2 Preview

MVFC LogoWeek 2 of playoff football…time for the “big boys” to see what they can bring. Frequent championship contenders like North Dakota State, James Madison, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston State get to test themselves against the unseeded teams who survived (or in some cases, dominated) the first round. Since I handle pretty much just the MVFC games, I’ll hit up the three games involving 4 MVFC teams that are being played on Saturday. Here’s the full playoff bracket if you’d like to see what everyone is up to.

So, here are the MVFC games this week (numbers listed before team names are seeding numbers):
2:00 PM – Northern Iowa (8-4) at #5 South Dakota State (9-2)
2:00 PM – South Dakota (8-4) at #6 Sam Houston State (10-1)
2:30 PM – San Diego (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (10-1)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.
Like last week, lots of games on at the same time, which is annoying. There is one playoff game on in the evening (WSU@SUU), but the remaining 7 games all kickoff between 1:00 and 2:30 (Central). Of course they couldn’t stagger them…that’d be too easy…

Northern Iowa (8-4) at #5 South Dakota State (9-2)

This Season/Last Week:

  • Northern Iowa hosted and decimated 9-3 Monmouth by 39 points in the first round of the playoffs. They are now 8-4 on the season.
  • South Dakota State had last weekend off (as did all seeded teams). They went 9-2 overall this season with wins over other playoff teams WIU, USD, and most impressively, NDSU, although one of their two losses was to UNI, 38-18 in mid-October.

History:
Unlike a lot of playoff games, there is actually quite a bit of history between these two teams. As previously mentioned, they did already meet once before this season, with the Panthers handing the Jackrabbits one of their two losses. The two teams have met 52 times overall, with UNI holding a 30-20-2 series record. Prior to the recent string of matchups due to both being in the MVFC together, the two teams (along with the other Dakota schools) shared a conference for quite a while back when both were DII schools, so a lot of it comes from that. If you’re interested in reading more about that, it was the North Central Conference, which was a small college/DII conference founded in 1922 that went until 2008 and included teams such as NDSU, USD, SDSU, UNI, UND, and Northern Colorado (as well as current non-football schools Creighton and U of Nebraska-Omaha).

Northern Iowa started the season a bit rough, but have really gotten their swagger back since the return of RB Marcus Weymiller mid-season. QB Eli Dunne came back last week after being out for most of the last couple of games…not that they really needed him, beating Missouri State and Indiana State both fairly easily. I won’t get into too much detail about the last time these two teams met up, since I did a recap for it back then (read all about that here), but essentially, Weymiller had a great day, running the ball all over SDSU’s questionable run defense. The Panther’s overall run game has significantly stepped up in the latter half of the season, averaging 72.6 ypg in their first 5 games, but 140.8 ypg in their last 5 games…and that includes under 60 in games against NDSU and USD. Last weekend against Monmouth, UNI put up 246 total yards on the ground, their best performance this season. The defense has been stepping up their game as well, giving up 159 points in the first 5 games, but only 111 points in the 7 games following that. Overall, it feels like UNI is just really playing their best football right now. To be fair, their last three games were against two of the worst MVFC teams and a playoff team that many regarded as one of the weaker of the squads playing the postseason.

South Dakota State also happens to be on a solid streak, winning the last 5 games of their regular season, including taking down WIU by 28, NDSU by 12, and USD by 3. They have one of the higher scoring offenses in the conference, putting up 37.5 ppg overall (41 ppg in their last 5 games) and boast a couple of receivers who will likely be on NFL rosters at some point next year (TE Dallas Goedert and WR Jake Wieneke). Overall offensive production does appear to be down a bit though (“down” being a relative term here, they’re still light years ahead of many FCS teams), with total offensive production being held below 400 yards each of the last two games (they were averaging 547.6 ypg in the 3 games before that, which included NDSU and WIU). On the defensive side of the ball, they have struggled with stopping the run (as previously mentioned), but have been relatively stingy against passing games.

So, both teams are playing pretty well right now, although UNI just seems to be doing it a bit better. Last time they met, UNI ran all over SDSU, although as the saying goes, “it’s harder to beat a team the second time”. SDSU will have a much better read on what they need to do to stop UNI…but I’m not sure if it’ll be enough. I think the Jackrabbits will slow down the Panthers better than they did in October, but I don’t think it’ll quite be enough. My guess is UNI by 4.

South Dakota (8-4) at #6 Sam Houston State (10-1)

This Season/Last Week:

  • South Dakota traveled down to the bayou and came away with a VERY close 38-31 victory over Nicholls State (NSU had 1st and goal at the 1 yard line heading for a tie and likely OT game, but fumbled the ball in the end zone and time ran out for them). They are 8-4 on the season now.
  • Sam Houston State was off last weekend, but is 10-1 so far this season. They beat fellow playoff team Nicholls State (that they would have had a rematch with if NSU had won) early in the season by 49 points. Their only loss was to the #4 seeded team in the playoffs, Central Arkansas, by 11 points at the end of September.

History:
The Coyotes and Bearcats have never met before on the football field. This is South Dakota’s first appearance in the FCS playoffs, while SHSU has made the I-AA/FCS postseason 10 times, including each of the last 7 years, making it to the championship game in both 2011 and 2012 (the first two years of NDSU’s 5-year championship run).

South Dakota has had an “up and down” season…or more specifically…up…then down. 6 straight wins including beating FBS Bowling Green and playoff team Western Illinois, but then the “down”…a loss to Illinois State kicked off a 5-game run where they only won one game (to be fair, 3 of the 4 teams they lost to are the other three MVFC teams that are playing this weekend in the playoffs). For much of the year, they had one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the FCS, with QB Chris Streveler able to both throw the ball incredibly effectively and tuck the ball and turn himself into the Coyote’s best RB. He’s run for 10 TDs and out of the 10 best total offensive yardage performances in the MVFC this season…he has 6 of them. The problem with playing a very tough late-season schedule, is that a QB like Streveler, who runs a lot…and hence, gets hit…a lot…is that they get pretty banged up after a while. This has contributed to some of their struggles later in the season. Also not helping both on the defensive side of the field and likely for a short bit in the locker run, was the legal troubles of a few of their former defensive players (including probably their top DB). To USD’s credit, the players are no longer on the team, but the fact is, they’re down a starter and a couple of backups from where they were earlier in the season. They do still have a few threats on that side of the ball, specifically DB Phillip Powell who has 3 INTs and forced the fumble that essentially won the game against Nicholls State and DL Darin Greenfield who leads the MVFC in tackles for loss with 1.5 per game. Still, the Coyote defense that was averaging giving up 18 points per game in the first 6 games of the season is now averaging allowing 30.3 points per game in the last 5 games of the regular season and their first in the playoffs (and that includes a shutout against SIU).

Sam Houston State also has one of the top offensive threats in the FCS, with last year’s Walter Payton Award winner, QB Jeremiah Briscoe. Briscoe’s average of nearly 354 passing yards per game and 37 passing TDs are both #1 in the entire FCS, which is why SHSU is overall #1 in the FCS in passing offense, scoring offense, and total (yardage) offense. His top targets are WR Nathan Stewart (118.6 ypg, 11 TDs), WR Davion Davis (90 ypg, 14 TDs), and WR Yedidiah Louis (88.8 ypg, 5 TDs). Davis is also a threat on punt returns, leading the team with a 22.7 yard per punt return average with 2 TDs. The “weakness” in the Bearcat offense is the run game, which puts up just under 184 ypg (32nd in the FCS). On the other side of the ball, LB Justin Johnson leads the team with 77 tackles including 7.5 for loss (4 sacks), 1 INT and a forced fumble. Getting pressure on the backfield are DLs Chris Stewart (46 tackles, 16 for loss, 11 sacks, 10 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble, and 2 blocked kicks) and PJ Hall (40 tackles, 15 for loss, 6 sacks, 3 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble and 4 blocked kicks…and he missed the first two games of the season). They do, however, seem to give up quite a few yards both on the ground (170.4 ypg, 85th in FCS) and through the air (247.4 ypg, 99th in FCS)…which kinda seems odd to me given how good those two D-Linemen are.

You’ve got two of the top offenses in the FCS, led by two QBs who are probably in most people’s lists of players in contention for this year’s Walter Payton Award. Part of me thinks this is one of those “whomever makes it to 60 points first wins” games…honestly. I mean, USD put up 77 points in their opener, SHSU reached 60+ points twice…against defenses that are ranked somewhere in the middle of the FCS in points allowed. USD has a great QB who is pretty banged up…probably not playing close to even 80%…but have probably the second-best defense that SHSU has faced this year (behind Central Arkansas…the only team to beat the Bearcats). SHSU has a great QB…period…but have one of the worst defenses that USD has faced this year. This one is a really tough call for me. If Streveler was at 100%…Coyotes win by probably 10…but he’s not, so I think it’ll be a very close, very high scoring game, and the Bearcats come away with the victory. A score of something in the range of a 60-54 SHSU win (which of course means that USD will probably win 2-0 on a last second safety).

San Diego (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (10-1)

This Season/Last Week:

  • San Diego went 9-2 in the regular season this year and spent last week completely embarrassing Northern Arizona in the first round of the playoffs to the tune of 41-10.
  • North Dakota State hung out back in Fargo, watched some games, drank some beer, polished their pile of championship trophies…probably something like that. The Bison went 10-1 this season, beating fellow playoff teams WIU (24-12), UNI (30-14) and USD (49-14). Their only loss of the season was to conference rival and current playoff #5 seed SDSU 33-21

History: Congratulations San Diego…you notched your 2nd ever playoff win (and the 2nd ever for the Pioneer League)…and what do you get as a reward? Only a return trip to the Fargodome. The Bison and Toreros have played each other only once…in the second round of last year’s playoffs…when NDSU won 45-7. Normally I’d also mention NDSU’s playoff history, but I don’t have that kind of time (you can read all about it here if you’re interested)

San Diego earned the big upset last weekend (NAU was favored by ~12 points, if I remember correctly) with a pretty strong defensive performance. The Toreros limited the Lumberjacks to their second-lowest passing performance of the year (178 yards) and their third lowest rushing performance of the year (60 yards). SD (I’m going to abbreviate them as SD because USD is the Coyotes in MVFC-land) also forced two fumbles and 1 INT to completely dominate the turnover battle (NAU had no gained turnovers). SD also has one of the better scoring offenses in the FCS, putting up 39.2 ppg this season. To be fair, they do play in the Pioneer League, so the level of competition is, on average, not quite what you see in a conference like the CAA, Southern, or MVFC. QB Anthony Lawrence is #2 in the FCS in passing TDs with 33…but the big thing…#1 in the FCS in interceptions thrown. 349 attempts…66.5 completion %…over 3k yards…33 TDs…and only 2 INTs. They’ve also only lost 5 total fumbles this entire season, which makes them #1 in the FCS in turnovers lost. Their O-line is also solid, allowing the fewest tackles for loss and sacks of all FCS teams. Defensively, they only allow 76.6 ypg on the ground (5th in the FCS) but have been extremely vulnerable to the pass (268.9 ypg, 116th in FCS). They do have the second best red zone defense and 9th best scoring defense in the FCS, so even while giving up so many yards through the air, they are effective at limiting teams abilities to get into the end zone. They also limit opponent’s scoring chances, being the #2 team in time of possession, holding onto the ball for an average of 34:16.

North Dakota State’s credentials have been fairly well documented in my articles throughout this season. They currently have the #2 scoring defense and #3 scoring offense in the FCS. NDSU mostly gets it done offensively with their ground game, running for an average of 265.1 ypg (5th in FCS). Some of that is skewed by some huge performances by RB Lance Dunn in the first half of the season. Dunn has been out with an injury for the last 5 games of the season (he was averaging right about 100 ypg in the 6 games he fully played in) and had 12 TDs. It is unclear if Dunn could be back for this game, although I highly doubt they would start him unless he’s back up to full power, and if he does get on the field, it likely wouldn’t be until later into the 2nd half if the game is still close. QB Easton Stick doesn’t pass a ton (64th in passing yards) but is very good at it when he does (6th in passing efficiency and passing yards per completion). The Bison defense is excellent in pretty much all aspects. Despite losing DE Greg Menard for the season with an injury during fall camp, everyone else has picked up the slack well enough for them to still have the 8th best run defense and 4th best pass defense in the FCS. Whereas most good defensive teams have a couple of big standouts and some solid performance from most other starters, NDSU has a full lineup of starters that could go to just about any other FCS team and be the “big standout” guy there. LBs Jabril Cox, Nick DeLuca, Levi Jordheim, DBs like Robbie Grimsley and Jalen Allison, and D-Linemen like Aaron Steidl and Nate Tanguay are all better at their positions than probably 95% of the starters in the FCS. They have a strong front line, bring a lot of pressure on QBs and RBs behind the line of scrimmage, and defend receivers very well, although I think a large portion of the success against the pass is due to guys making the opposing QB have a rough day.

San Diego heading back to Fargo…not sure you could find two more different climates to play football in…thankfully for all involved, it doesn’t really matter what the weather’s doing, since it’s in the Fargodome. Last year, the 45-7 NDSU victory was actually closer than the score would indicate, with the game being within 14 until NDSU blew open a few big TD plays late in the 3rd quarter and in the 4th. San Diego actually won the possession time battle in that game, holding onto the ball for 35:36 and was nearly equal with NDSU for passing yardage (and they have a better passing offense this year than last year). San Diego also has a bit of experience playing in the playoffs now, and specifically in second-round games at the Fargodome…which will help because playing your first Fargodome game can be a rough time for most visiting teams trying to deal with the noise level. I think this one will probably play a bit closer than last year’s game…San Diego is well coached, and due to their location advantage, are able to get recruits who are generally a step above what you usually see in the scholarship-less Pioneer League. None of this, however, is likely going to be enough to enough to counter the advantage of size and strength that NDSU has over…well…most teams. Last year…it was a 38-point NDSU win…this year…I think something more like a 28-point margin is more likely, but don’t be surprised if a lucky bounce here or there makes it a more “exciting” (closer) game than most people are thinking at first glance.

On a more semi-personal note, I wanted to point out this week’s MVFC First and Goal Podcast episode with former WIU Head Coach Don Patterson:

Coach Don Patterson

Coach P is a HUGE part of why I am such a big Leatherneck (and subsequently FCS) football fan. He took over a highly successful Leatherneck squad in 1999, my 3rd year as a Marching Leatherneck, after Coach Randy Ball left for Missouri State. With Coach P in charge, WIU had two more winning seasons including winning the conference (at that point the Gateway Conference) and making the playoffs in 2000 (a 16-team playoff).

A “down” season in 2001 was followed by a couple more highly successful years, going 11-2 in 2002, making it to the playoffs and destroying the Tony Romo-led EIU Panthers 48-9 before losing by 3 to eventual national champion Western Kentucky (the infamous “sledgehammer game”). In 2003, WIU went 9-4 while playing two FBS teams back-to-back (beating Eastern Michigan by 22 and then losing to that year’s FBS champion…Nick Saban-coached LSU…and only being down by 1 possession late into the 3rd quarter). That year in the playoffs, WIU had an incredibly exciting OT win at Montana (43-40 in OT) followed by a 1-point loss at Colgate in a snowstorm.

There was a bit of a rough situation a few years later when he was diagnosed with cancer and was essentially “forced out” in 2009 by our athletics administration at the time, which really left a bad taste in the mouths of many of our football alumni who played under Coach P. It wasn’t until seven years later, when newly-hired HC Charlie Fisher reached out to Coach P and many of the football alumni to repair those wounds and help bring them back into the Leatherneck family.

Because I was lucky enough to be in the Marching Leathernecks at that time, I had essentially a front-row-seat (well…50 yard line, about halfway up the stands) for the best 5 year span of Leatherneck football in our DI era. In that time, I attended every home game (and 5 away games including 2 FBS games) and witnessed a grand total of 5 losses. Coach P was a big part of our team’s success in the latter portion of that timeframe and heading into the next millenium. He is the second-winningest HC in WIU history behind Randy Ball (by only 1 game) and had the second-longest term as HC behind only Ray “Rock” Hanson (for whom Hanson Field is named).