2018 FCS Championship Game Preview

North Dakota State will take on James Madison in the FCS Championship this Saturday. The game will air at 12:00pm on ESPN2 live from Frisco, TX.

January in college football means a furious dash to the finish line to end the football season. This Saturday in Frisco, Texas the FCS football season will be coming to and end as the North Dakota State Bison will take on the James Madison Dukes.

The teams were seeded one and two in the playoffs and will meet each other for the second consecutive season. Last season the Dukes defeated the Bison in Fargo in the semifinals to advance, and eventually win the FCS championship. The Dukes sat atop the FCS rankings all season and never wavered. Their season started off with a win against FBS East Carolina and eventually led to an undefeated season behind a balanced offense led by Brian Schor and a top flight defense led by Andrew Ankrah. The Bison suffered one loss in route to their number two seed in the playoffs, a road contest at cross-border rival South Dakota State. The Dukes handily defeated the Jackrabbits in the semifinals in Harrisonburg.

James Madison will be looking for their third national championship, while the Bison will be looking for their sixth. The Bison cruised through their playoff schedule, defeating their opponents by an average of 36 points. James Madison was not quite as fortunate in their playoff draws, with their average victory being 19 points. The Dukes got a scare when the Big Sky’s Weber State came to town and nearly pulled an upset of the defending champions. Weber State held an eight point lead with 3:04 left in the game, but the Dukes showed their championship attitude and quickly scored to tie the game, then Ethan Ratke knocking through a 46 yard field goal as time expired.

The current betting line for the game (as of 1/2) has North Dakota State -3.5 to win the game, with the over/under coming in at 47.

North Dakota State Bison (13-1, 7-1, 4-1 on the road)
Fargo, North Dakota
Missouri Valley Football Conference
Head Coach: Chris Klieman (53-6 as Head Coach)

OL Austin Kuhnert 1st Team AP FCS All-American, 1st Team STATS All-American, 1st Team All-Missouri Valley
LB Nick DeLuca 1st Team AP FCS All-American, 1st Team STATS All-American, 1st Team All-Missouri Valley
LS James Fisher 1st Team STATS All-American, 1st Team All-Missouri Valley
FB Connor Wentz 1st Team All-Missouri Valley
DB Tre Dempsey 1st Team All-Missouri Valley
DB Robbie Grimsley 1st Team All-Missouri Valley
RB Bruce Anderson 2nd Team All-Missouri Valley
WR RJ Urzendowski 2nd Team All-Missouri Valley
OL Tanner Volson 2nd Team All-Missouri Valley
DL Aaron Steidl 2nd Team All-Missouri Valley
LB Jabril Cox 2nd Team All-Missouri Valley, MVFC Newcomer of the Year, MVFC Freshman of the Year
HC Chris Klieman MVFC Coach of the Year

9/2/2017 Mississippi Valley State W 72-7
9/9/2017 at Eastern Washington W 40-13
9/23/2017 Robert Morris W 56-0
9/30/2017 Missouri State W 38-11
10/7/2017 at Indiana State W 52-0
10/14/2017 at Youngstown State W 27-24
10/21/2017 Western Illinois W 24-12
10/28/2017 Northern Iowa W 30-14
11/4/2017 at South Dakota State L 21-33
11/11/2017 South Dakota W 49-14
11/18/2017 Western Illinois W 20-7
12/2/2017 San Diego (FCS 2nd Round Playoff) W 38-3
12/9/2017 Wofford (FCS Quarterfinal) W 42-10
12/15/2017 Sam Houston State (FCS Semifinal) W 55-13


Key Players:
QB Easton Stick – 151/242 for 2336 yards. 27 touchdowns, 8 interceptions. 777 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.
RB Bruce Anderson – 216 rushes for 1186 yards and 11 touchdowns. 186 yards receiving, 3 touchdowns.
RB Ty Brooks – 76 rushes for 718 yards and 7 touchdowns.
RB Lance Dunn – 80 rushes for 642 yards and 12 touchdowns.
WR RJ Urzendowski – 35 receptions for 589 yards and 8 touchdowns.
DB Trey Dempsey – 47 tackles. 6 interceptions, 1 touchdown. 4 pass break-ups, 10 pass deflections.
LB Jabril Cox – 72 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble.
LB Nick DeLuca – 70 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks.

The Bison continued their run of dominance through the Missouri Valley this season, despite challenges from South Dakota, South Dakota State, Western Illinois, and Illinois State. Needless to say, the Missouri Valley was a gauntlet of teams this season who made life difficult. The Bison passed most of those tests, only tripping up against their rival South Dakota State. Chris Klieman continues the legacy left behind by Craig Bohl in making the Bison a premier FCS team. The Bison got a nice out of conference win at Eastern Washington, handily beating the Eagles who struggled in the beginning of the season. Last year’s championship representative, Youngstown State, gave the Bison a run for their money midway through the season, but they kept trudging. The Bison’s sole loss, to South Dakota State, was a game they never led and never had much of a chance in. The Jackrabbits were too much.

Quarterback Easton Stick was a force for the Bison, following in his predecessor’s lead. The quarterback totaled over 3000 yards of offense to lead the Bison in all-purpose yards. The Bison used a rushing attack that wore opponents down all season. NDSU averaged nearly 300 yards rushing per game. Four backs rushed for over 500 yards. Bruce Anderson was a beast in the backfield this season, rushing for over 1100 yards and eleven touchdowns.

On the defensive side of the ball the Bison were again one of the best in FCS. Jabril Cox and Nick DeLuca were the heart and soul of that crew, combining for over 140 tackles and 9.5 sacks. DeLuca will leave the Bison as one of the best in their history of their program. Cox, while only a freshman, played like one of the best players in the country at times through the course of the season. If Cox continues on his current trajectory he could be one of the best defensive players in FCS in recent memory.

This will be the first time the Bison have left the snowy grounds of Fargo since November 18th when they closed their season with a win over Illinois State.

James Madison Dukes (14-0, 8-0, 5-0 on the road)
Harrisonburg, Virginia
Colonial Athletic Association
Head Coach: Mike Houston (28-1 as Head Coach)

OL Aaron Stinnie 1st Team AP FCS All-American, 1st Team STATS All-American, 1st Team All-Colonial Athletic Conferec
DL Andrew Ankrah 1st Team AP FCS All-American, 1st Team STATS All-American, CAA Defensive Player of the Year, 1st Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
DB Jordan Brown 1st Team AP FCS All-American, 2nd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
DB Rashad Robinson 1st Team AP FCS All-American, 3rd Team STATS All-American, 1st Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
DB Raven Greene 2nd Team STATS All-American, 1st Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
ST John Miller CAA Special Teams Player of the Year
DL Simeyon Robinson 1st Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
LB Kyre Hawkins 1st Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
DB Jimmy Moreland 1st Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
QB Brian Schor 2nd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
OL Jahee Jackson 2nd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
P Harry O’Kelly 2nd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
RB Trai Sharp 3rd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
WR Terrence Alls 3rd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
DL Darrious Carter 3rd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference
LB Brandon Hereford 3rd Team All-Colonial Athletic Conference

9/2/2017 at East Carolina W 34-14
9/9/2017 East Tennessee State W 52-10
9/16/2017 Norfolk State W 75-14
9/23/2017 Maine W 28-10
9/30/2017 at Delaware W 20-10
10/14/2017 Villanova W 30-8
10/21/2017 at William and Mary W 46-14
10/28/2017 New Hampshire W 21-0
11/4/2017 at Rhode Island W 38-3
11/11/2017 Richmond W 20-13
11/18/2017 at Elon W 31-3
12/2/2017 Stony Brook (FCS 2nd Round Playoff) W 26-7
12/8/2017 Weber State (FCS Quarterfinal) W 31-28
12/16/2017 South Dakota State (FCS Semifinal) W 51-16

Key Players:
QB Bryan Schor – 257/385 for 3074 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. 522 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns.
RB Marcus Marshall – 132 rushes for 844 yards and 10 touchdowns.
RB Trai Sharp – 159 rushes for 761 yards and 4 touchdowns.
WR Terrence Alls – 53 receptions for 681 yards and 2 touchdowns.
WR David Eldridge – 41 receptions for 524 yards and 4 touchdowns.
DL Andrew Ankrah – 54 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 2 forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries.
LB Kyre Hawkins – 101 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 7 sacks.
DB Raven Greene – 75 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss.
DL Darrious Carter – 46 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks.

The James Madison Dukes look like a team who’s ready to repeat as FCS national champions. You could make an argument that the Dukes had a tougher road to the playoffs, and I think you’d be right. The Dukes took on conference opponent Stony Brook, then got a Weber State who was grossly underrated coming into the playoffs, then got to play the only team who beat North Dakota State this season. Weber State gave the Dukes more than they wanted, and save for an offensive lapse late in the fourth quarter from Weber State, the Dukes would be sitting at home right now. However, none of that happened the Dukes responded by beating the ever loving hell out of a very good opponent in South Dakota State.

The Dukes started off with a win over East Carolina this season. Every FBS win for an FCS team is a good one, however, the Pirates were really really bad this year which unfortunately diluted that dominating win by the Dukes. The momentum from that win carried them into the conference season. And boy, did it carry them into the conference season. The Dukes defense gave up 61 points during the conference season, averaging almost 8 points a game for opponents. Folks, that’s a suffocating defense. That defense was led by defensive lineman Andrew Ankrah. Ankrah piled up the post season awards for his stellar play this season, earning first team All-American on the AP and STATS ballots. Kyre Hawkins was also an important cog to that defense, who was all over the field collecting 101 tackles this season.

On offense the Dukes are a balanced attack. Quarterback Bryan Schor piled up over 3500 yards total offense and 33 touchdowns. He’s a leader who will be making his second start in the FCS championship. He brings experience for a team looking to repeat. He had help in the rushing game, with a two headed monster of Marcus Marshall and Trai Sharp who combined for about 1500 yards and 14 touchdowns of their own. Efficiently executing that offense will be key to getting past the top ranked defense of NDSU.

Key Statistics:

Category NORTH DAKOTA STATE JAMES MADISON
Sagarin Ranking 33 43
Total Offense 462.1 (8th) 431.7 (21st)
Total Defense 237.1 (1st) 251.1 (3rd)
Passing Yards Per Game 180 (88th) 230.2 (41st)
Rushing Yards Per Game 282.1 (4th) 201.5 (19th)
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game 89.2 (7th) 87.4 (6th)
Defensive Passing Yards Per Game 147.9 (3rd) 163.8 (12th)
Turnover Margin +17 (7th) +24 (1st)
Third Down Conversions 47% (8th) 41% (29th)
Red Zone Offense 86% (21st) 86% (22nd)
Red Zone Defense 80% (59th) 68% (10th)
Penalties Per Game 4.79 (10th) 6.93 (75th)

Final Thoughts:

These teams do a lot of things very well. Both of them score very highly in a lot of key statistics that are typical indicators of success. Both teams know what it’s like to play on a big stage, so this moment shouldn’t be too big for either team. I’m sure both teams will enjoy getting out of their frigid environments and going to a slightly warmer in environment in Dallas.

Both of these teams play a salty defense, and I guess that’s why you see the over/under of this game at 47. Vegas isn’t planning on a real high scoring game, and I tend to agree with them. This is a rare time where we see two elite defense shows up to play. Both quarterbacks are capable of putting the teams on their shoulders and win this game. Easton Stick has accounted for a lot of defensive yards and touchdowns for the Bison, but so has Bryan Schor. They both have the ability to keep a defense off-balance by threatening to run all game. The James Madison offensive line could be the right recipe to keep the NDSU defensive front seven at bay. On the other side, NDSU will have their hands full with Andrew Ankrah. Both teams are very well versed in forcing turnovers.

I can see a scenario playing out where we’re within two or three and halftime, and likely finish the game that way. My prediction? James Madison 23, North Dakota State 21.

The game will be played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. The game can be seen on ESPN2 starting at noon CST.

The FCS Wedge – 2018 – 0102 – NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

Lance & Kris hit this last show of the season running and give us some in depth looks at both sides of both teams and how they apear to match up with each other. This is one of the top games as far as pedigree and competitiveness we may have seen. This, as always is a huge game but this one is between two teams that have clearly, clearly shown themselves to be a cut above the rest of the field this season. This is gonna be great folks.

The L&K Express go over a few of the coaching changes around the country as well.  They take a look back at some of their favorite FCS Championship games of the past and give a bit of commentary on their favorites.

The boys give a little credit to our fine folks that provide some write ups on our conferences and I want to back that up. The FCS Wedge in all forms is simply a group of fans that have come together to provide some content on our favorite level of football. Everybody puts in hard work and just does the job without complaint.

Chief among all are Lance & Kris and the great content they give me every week to turn out a podcast that is just fun for me to edit and put together. I have a chuckle and learn so much listening to them and going over their hard work each week. A deep and heartfelt thanks to you two guys and to all the others that help put The FCS Wedge together each and every week.

If you get a chance and like the product I’d really appreciate if you tipped your cap to all these folks working on The FCS Wedge via the thread over on anygivensaturday.com.

If you don’t like it, I’d appreciate it if you kept it to yourself.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1219 – Round 4 REVIEW

Kris, Lance & Josh take a look back at the playoffs overall to this point and discuss surprises along the way to the National Championship game.

They do an in depth discussion on the two games we got to watch last weekend and look at how it all went so wrong in the Semifinals.

There is also a quick discussion on the national awards for this season.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC – Playoff Semifinals in Review

MVFC LogoAlright…semifinals time…heavy hitters turning things up a notch. Was NDSU going to be able to shut down Sam Houston State’s strong passing attack (spoiler alert…they did). Well, at least the SDSU at James Madison game had the potential to be a close, exciting…um….oh come on. Can’t we get some exciting football? At least the Celebration Bowl was down to the wire. Oh well. The two top teams proved without a doubt why they are the two top teams. There’s North Dakota State and James Madison…and then there’s everyone else.

#6 Sam Houston State (12-1) at #2 North Dakota State (12-1)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SHSU 3 0 10 0 13
NDSU 21 20 14 0 55

Quick Hits:

  • SHSU – QB Jeremiah Briscoe threw for 289 yards and 1 TD, but also 3 INTs
  • SHSU – LB Justin Johnson led the Bearkats in tackling with 13 including .5 for loss
  • SHSU – WRs Yedidiah Lewis caught 10 passes for 99 yards and Nathan Stewart had 5 for 80 yards and 1 TD
  • SHSU – PK Tre Honshtein hit FGs from 28 and 32 yards out and had 4 kickoffs with 3 touchbacks
  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 160 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, and ran for 32 yards and 1 TD
  • NDSU – RB Bruce Anderson ran for 183 yards and 3 TDs and caught 2 passes for 54 yards and 2 TDs; RB Seth Wilson ran for 194 yards
  • NDSU – TE’s Ben Ellefson and Jeff Illies each had 2 caches for around 30 yards (+/-2) and a TD each
  • NDSU – LB Jabril Cox led the team with 13 tackles, 2.5 for loss
  • NDSU – FS Tre Dempsey had 1 INT taken back for 60 yards and a fumble recovery and CB Marquise Bridges had 2 INTs

Sam Houston State kicked off the scoring with a FG, but then NDSU took over. By the time the Bearkats would put any more points on the board, it was a FG in the 3rd that would pull them within 35 points. The Bison had scored 41 unanswered points in the first half…actually Bruce Anderson himself had scored 24…to head into the locker rooms with a 41-3 halftime lead. SHSU finally found their way to the end zone halfway through the third, but it was answered shortly thereafter with another (guess who?) Bruce Anderson TD catch. It was 55-13 after 3 quarters and 55-13 it would stay, with NDSU putting in a lot of their second string guys and just locking things down to finish out the game with a huge win over a team that had been putting up big offense numbers most of the season.

NDSU came within 27 ground yards of tying their season high of 498 rushing yards against MVSU to open the season and Bruce Anderson tied the school record for TDs scored in a game with 5…the residents of Fargo are probably still hearing “BRUUUUUUUUUUUUCE” echoing from the stadium days later. The 55 points is a playoff record for NDSU.

SHSU finished their season with a 12-2 overall record.
NDSU is now 13-1 and will have a couple of weeks “off” until they head off to Fargo for the FCS Championship game.

My Pick in Review:

I said: NDSU wins 45-21
Other predictions were:
Massey – 45-21 NDSU
Sagarin – 48-20 NDSU
Compughterratings.com – 46-24 NDSU
5Dimes – NDSU -20, O/U 65 (I’m not an expert, but I think that means they’re saying right around 42-22 for NDSU)

It was: NDSU won 55-13
All our predictions were pretty much in the same range and they all somewhat underestimated how effective the Bison defense would be at shutting down SHSU’s offense. So, the spread was a little larger, but I think just about everyone thought NDSU would kinda run away with this one…emphasis on “run”.

#5 South Dakota State (11-2) at #1 James Madison (13-0)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SDSU 0 10 0 6 16
JMU 7 14 30 0 51

Quick Hits:

  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion threw for 234 yards, 2 TDs and…6 INTs
  • SDSU – WR Jake Wieneke caught for 105 yards and 1 TD
  • SDSU – S Nick Farina led the team in tackles with 10
  • JMU – QB Bryan Schor threw for 203 yards and 2 TDs; he also ran for 12 yards and a TD
  • JMU – RB Marcus Marshall ran for 203 yards and 2 TDs…no, that’s not a typo…same yardage as the QB threw for
  • JMU – WR Riley Stapleton caught 5 passes for 70 yards and 2 TDs; WR David Eldridge had 75 yards
  • JMU – CB Rashad Robinson led the team in tackles with 12 and 1 sack
  • JMU – Defense forced a school record 10 turnovers (6 INTs and 4 fumble recoveries)

Unlike the other game this weekend, this one was at least close for…nearly a full half. JMU and SDSU traded points in the first half, although JMU was getting TDs and SDSU only had 1 TD and a FG. JMU was up, but by “only” a score of 21-10 going into halftime. This could have been a manageable deficit for the Jackrabbits, but then their defense forgot to come out after halftime and the Dukes put up 30 points in one quarter to put this game away. In the 3rd quarter alone, JMU had 244 yards of offense and forced 4 turnovers (one “drive” was a 59-yard pick-6 for JMU, so that didn’t even count for offensive yardage). South Dakota State got one more TD early in the 4th, but by that time it was too little and WAY too late and James Madison claimed the 51-16 win and earned themselves a return trip to the championship game.

South Dakota State finishes their season at 11-3, which was one of their better finishes in terms of win % and the only time they’ve reached double-digit wins in a season. It was also their first time ever reaching the semifinal round of the FCS playoffs.
James Madison is 14-0 and will face off with NDSU in the FCS championships on January 6th.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Dukes with a score of 34-26
Other Predictions:
Massey – 34-28 JMU
Sagarin – 28-24 JMU
Compughterratings.com – 29-28 JMU
5Dimes – JMU -3, O/U 53…I think that means 28-25 JMU, but don’t quote me on that.

It was: Dukes, 51-16
So, everyone thought JMU would win on this one, although, like the Spanish inquisition, nobody expected 10 turnovers for the Jackrabbits which led to a much larger spread than was expected. I did beat out the other predictions on at least being the closest to the actual spread though…I thought JMU by 8, they were all less than that…and JMU won by 35.

Now we have our championship matchup. North Dakota State vs James Madison…as it was foretold. I feel like most people, in the backs of their minds, just felt like this is how it was going to go down. North Dakota State is the team that won 5-straight FCS championships until James Madison knocked them out of the playoffs last year en route to their first championship since 2004. They’re both just playing football at a level above nearly all the FCS right now, and honestly, both are probably good enough that they could be borderline top 25 FBS teams. Anyway, I’ll get more into that with my FCS championship preview, which I’ll get to probably in the first couple of days of 2018…a few days before the game. There’s quite a few injuries on both sides and depending on who is able to recover well enough to play and who is done for the season could end up being the key to this matchup. This will be the 7th year in a row that a MVFC team has made their way to the championship game.

Oh, and I think SDSU just turned the ball over again, but I’ll need to go confirm that.

In the meantime, the 2017 Phil Steele FCS All-America team was released, and the MVFC was fairly well represented.
USD QB Chris Streveler won the Offensive Player of the Year award and WIU LB Brett Taylor won the Defensive Player of the Year award.
Other first-teamers were SDSU TE Dallas Godert, NDSU OL Austin Kuhnert, ILSU DL Dalton Keene, NDSU LB Nick DeLuca, ILSU DB Davontae Harris. A total of 20 MVFC players were named to one of the four teams.

MVFC – Week 4 Preview (Semifinals)

MVFC LogoSemifinals…the penultimate weekend of football in the FCS…or as it would be known in the FBS…the entire playoff bracket. Thankfully we have a real playoff bracket to determine our champion. Whatever your disagreements are with which teams should have gotten the last few at-large spots, I think we can all agree that this is a much preferable way to go about things. If we did things like the FBS does them, we would have had JMU vs Central Arkansas playing the winner of NDSU and Jacksonville State in the championship game. Now, I don’t think anyone is going to deny that NDSU and JMU are likely the two best teams this year, so that part would have been pretty much right-on, but we would have missed out on games like Furman and Elon, which came down to a blocked XP…the South Dakota @ Sam Houston Track Meet, and of course, the instant-classic of Weber State at James Madison…one of the most exciting playoff games I can remember seeing in a long time. This is real playoff football, which gives us both the fascination of matchups that in many cases haven’t been seen before, as well as something real and substantial to play for, rather than showcasing a couple of 6-win teams in a bowl that nobody has ever heard of, in a stadium with less than half the number of fans who will be at the Fargodome or Bridgeforth Stadium this weekend.

Here’s the full playoff bracket if you want to see how we got to this point.

The teams that are left standing this weekend are:
#1 James Madison…the defending national champions who haven’t lost a game since they played at FBS North Carolina in mid-September 2016.
#2 North Dakota State…the powerhouse program that won 5 straight national championships and was en route to their 6th before losing to JMU in the semifinals round of of last year’s playoffs.
#5 South Dakota State…the only team to beat NDSU this year and an offensive monster with a WR who has set a multitude of conference records, a TE who will probably be one of the first of his position in next year’s draft, a dangerous running QB, plus a couple of very good RBs who would be “headliners” on many other teams.
#6 Sam Houston State…the perennial “bridesmaids” who have won at least one game in the playoffs every year since 2011, making it to the championship game in both 2011 and 2012, and who also have one of the strongest offensive attacks in the FCS, with a record-setting QB who leads all FCS QBs in passing yards and TDs as well as two receivers in the FCS Top 10 for both yardage and TDs.

There’s only two playoff games this week, and both involve MVFC teams, so here’s the entire FCS schedule for the weekend (numbers listed before team names are seeding numbers):
#6 Sam Houston State (12-1) at #2 North Dakota State (12-1) – 7 PM Friday on ESPN2
#5 South Dakota State (11-2) at #1 James Madison (13-0) – 3:30 PM Saturday on ESPNU

And, while not a playoff game, a likely much more fun and exciting game to watch early on Saturday than the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl…
The Celebration Bowl – Grambling (11-1) vs North Carolina A&T (11-0) – 11 AM Saturday on ABC
All games listed in Central time.

#6 Sam Houston State (12-1) at #2 North Dakota State (12-1)

This Season/Last Week:

  • Sam Houston State finished their regular season at 10-1, only losing to fellow seeded playoff team Central Arkansas. In the playoffs, they beat South Dakota by 12 and then last weekend, Kennesaw State by 7.
  • North Dakota State went 10-1 in the regular season with wins over playoff teams Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, and South Dakota. Their only loss this season was to conference rival and current #5 seed South Dakota State. In the playoffs, the Bison hosted San Diego and won by 35, then hosted #7 Wofford and won by 32.

History:
The Bearkats and Bison have faced off 5 times in their histories. They played in the regular seasons of 2007 and 2009 as a home and home series, with the home team winning each one. Since then, they have met in the FCS championship game in 2012 and 2013 and then met in the semifinals round in 2014, with the Bison winning each of those contests to hold a 4-1 advantage over SHSU.

I hope you’ll forgive me, but little has changed since last week for NDSU, so I’m mostly going to just repeat what I said then…
NDSU has one of the best defenses in the country (possibly THE best) ranking #1 in the FCS in passing yards allowed, #7 in rushing defense, #2 in scoring defense, and #1 in total defense, allowing an average of 228.3 yards per game. DL Aaron Steidl, LBs Nick DeLuca and Jabril Cox, and DBs Tre Dempsey and Robbie Grimsley have all received all-conference accolades, with Cox being named the MVFC newcomer of the year. On the other side of the ball, they have the #5 rushing offense and #2 scoring offense in the FCS. Their one “weak point” is the passing game, where they are ranked 87th in passing yards per game, however they are 12th in yards per completion and their QB Easton Stick is 4th in the FCS in passing efficiency. I’ve said it multiple times before…they don’t pass the ball often, but when they do, they are accurate. In general, the players and coaches have a ton of playoff experience (probably more than any other team in the playoffs) so to most of them, this is pretty much “business as usual”.

Speaking of playoff experience, if there’s one team that can rival NDSU in that aspect, it’s the Bearkats. Since 2011, SHSU has an overall playoff record of 13-6…essentially a 2-1 “average” for the last 6 playoffs, which means that they’ve never won the championship, but it’s also a record that the majority of teams in the FCS would kill for. Sam Houston State has the #1 passing offense, #1 scoring offense, and #1 total offense in the FCS…they can score and they can do it quickly. QB Jeremiah Briscoe has put up over 4,700 yards this season and thrown for 44 TDs, which both lead the FCS. WR Nathan Stewart is #1 in the FCS in receiving yards and #6 in receiving TDs. WR Davion Davis was dinged up last week but sounds like he’s good-to-go for this game…he’s #9 in the FCS in receiving yards and #1 in TDs. The run game isn’t quite as “huge” for SHSU, but they aren’t bad…#31 in rushing offense with RB Corey Avery who is #5 in rushing TDs and #8 in yards per carry with just over 6.
On the defensive side of the ball, they’ve got DL’s P.J. Hall and Chris Stewart and LB Justin Johnson who all earned All-Southland accolades this season. Johnson leads the team in tackles with 101 along with 5 sacks, 1 INT and a forced fumble, while Stewart and Hall each have 19 tackles for loss. While the Bearkats do have some very solid players on defense, they have given up quite a bit to other teams this season. They’re 107th in total defense and passing yards allowed, 94th in run defense, and 90th in scoring defense.

Throughout the season, I’ve said that it takes a strong passing game to get past the Bison. Really it’s more to it than that, because they are the best in the FCS at pass defense, but the only loss they suffered this season was to SDSU, when the Jackrabbits were able to put up 329 yards on the NDSU defense. That game and the South Dakota game were the only ones where they allowed over 200 passing yards. Their run defense, while not ranked quite as high, regularly holds teams under 100 rushing yards and has only allowed over 150 yards one the ground once…when facing USD’s Chris Streveler. So, this in that aspect, I think this is a more favorable matchup for NDSU’s opponent than last week’s game with Wofford was (all running, no passing). However…NDSU also has a really good offense. It’s not on the level of Sam Houston themselves, but they’re still quite likely the best that SHSU has faced this season…and SHSU does not have a good defense. The Bearkats win because in nearly every game, their offense has been able to outscore what the defense has allowed (yes, I realize that sounds like a Madden-ism).

So, my take on this game is that SHSU puts up some points…lower than their season average of 45.6 ppg, but higher than NDSU’s defensive average of 11.4 ppg. I’m guessing right around 20 on that front. Meanwhile, unfortunately for the Bearkats, the Bison offense is able to pretty much score at-will against a defense that is significantly more porous than last week’s opponent Wofford, whom NDSU put up 42 points on. This all points me in the direction of likely a 45-21 NDSU win. It’s possible that Briscoe comes out and has a career day and lights up the Bison defense, but I just don’t see that as the most likely outcome.

Other predictions (just for the fun of it, to see who’s more accurate):
Massey – 45-21 NDSU (ok…seriously, I made a point of not looking at all at any predictions/projections before I wrote mine above…I’m not trying to copy Massey).
Sagarin – 48-20 NDSU
Compughterratings.com – 46-24 NDSU
5Dimes – NDSU -20, O/U 65 (I’m not an expert, but I think that means they’re saying right around 42-22 for NDSU)

#5 South Dakota State (11-2) at #1 James Madison (13-0)

This Season/Last Week:

  • South Dakota State went 9-2 in the regular season with losses to Youngstown State and Northern Iowa in the first half of the season. They have wins over playoff teams Western Illinois, North Dakota State, and South Dakota. In their first game of the playoffs, they won a rematch with Northern Iowa, 37-22 and then last weekend, defeated New Hampshire 56-14.
  • James Madison is perfect. Well…by that I mean that they are undefeated this season. They have wins over fellow playoff teams New Hampshire (21-0) and Elon (31-3) and in the playoffs defeated Stony Brook (26-7) and in last weekend’s phenomenal game, narrowly defeated Weber State on a last second FG, 31-28.

History: The Jackrabbits and Dukes have never played each other.

Like I did with NDSU, I’m pretty much just going to use what I said last week about SDSU, just updating the stats…
South Dakota State is well known for having one of the most potent passing attacks of any FCS team over the last couple of years (although is down a bit this year), led by QB Taryn Christion, who is an excellent passer (252 ypg, 33 TDs, 8 INTs) but also decent at running the ball (39.6 ypg, 9 TDs). Christion is throwing to two receivers (one a TE technically) who will both likely be on NFL rosters next year, WR Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Goedert. Wieneke is having something of a “down” year with only 66 ypg and 15 TDs, but already held many MVFC records for receiving (yards in a season, yards in a career, TD receptions in a career, etc.) before the season even started. Goedert meanwhile, has been carving out another phenomenal season that has seen the TE catch for 82 ypg and 6 TDs, although he was somewhat banged up early in last week’s game and may not be quite 100% for this game. Giving protection to their offense is one of the best O-Linemen in the MVFC, Jacob Ohnesorge. The big man on the defense is actually still only a sophomore…LB Christian Rozeboom with 118 tackles, but DB Jordan Brown has also come up big at times, sitting at second on the team in tackles with 66, recording 3 INTs, 8 pass breakups, 11 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles. Their weakness on defense is against the run, where they give up around 164 yards per game on the ground. Overall though, SDSU feels like a much more well-rounded team than they have in the past (where they’ve often been almost an “offense only” team).

James Madison is probably the only team that can claim to have as defense as good as NDSU. They are #9 against the pass, #6 against the run, #3 in total defense, and are the best team in the FCS in points allowed. DL Andrew Ankrah was the CAA’s defensive player of the year, is a first-team All-American, and is one of the top 3 players in the running for this year’s Buck Buchanan award. Also on the All-CAA list for JMU is DL Simeyon Robinson, LB Kyre Hawkins, CBs Jimmy Moreland and Rashad Robinson, and Safety Raven Greene. So despite being “only” 9th against the pass, they’ve got some huge defensive playmakers that can really turn the game around and are overall #1 in the FCS at intercepting passes. The Dukes offense is led by QB Bryan Schor who has thrown for just over 220 ypg this season with 24 TDs and 12 INTs. Shor has also run for 510 yards and 6 TDs, so he’s a threat both through the air and on the ground. JMU is #39 in passing offense, #23 in rushing offense, #23 in total offense, and #13 in scoring offense. So, overall a decent offense, but not quite on the level of the other three playoff teams.

This one is a little trickier to pick, I think. JMU showed some vulnerability last weekend against Weber State. If SDSU can take advantage of some of those cracks in the armor, then they could do pretty well. On the other hand, there is a reason why JMU is riding a 25-game win streak right now…an excellent defense, overall a very well-coached team, and just a little bit of luck. You don’t win that many in a row without doing many things right. I think that if SDSU TE Dallas Goedert is nearly 100%, then the Jackrabbits can probably do ok offensively…not up to their usual standards, but something around 26 points seems reasonable to me. James Madison’s offense isn’t stellar, but I think it’s good enough to do fairly well against a SDSU defense that has been vulnerable to the run this season. If they can put up 31 points against a good Weber State defense, I think they can put up 34 against a not-as-good SDSU defense. As a MVFC fan, I’d love to see another all-MVFC championship game…and an upset is entirely possible depending on how JMU responds to last week’s close game…but I see JMU taking this one with a score of around 34-26 and setting up a “battle for the ages” against NDSU in Frisco in a few weeks.

Other predictions (just for the fun of it, to see who’s more accurate):
Massey – 34-28 JMU
Sagarin – 28-24 JMU
Compughterratings.com – 29-28 JMU
5Dimes – JMU -3, O/U 53…I think that means 28-25 JMU, but don’t quote me on that.

Just a couple of other quick things in MVFC land that came out over this last week:
SDSU WR Jake Wieneke was announced as this year’s recipient of the STATS FCS Doris Robinson Scholar-Athlete Award “presented to an FCS student-athlete who excels not only in the classroom, but in the community and beyond.”

AP All-American honors were announced, with 13 MVFC players being named. First-teamers include USD QB Chris Streveler, NDSU OL Austin Kuhnert, SDSU OL Jacob Ohnesorge, SDSU TE Dallas Goedert, WIU LB Brett Taylor, and NDSU LB Nick DeLuca.

SDSU Center Jacob Ohnsorge was named the winner of the Rimington Award in the FCS. The Rimington Award is given annually for the top Center in each of the divisions of college football.

Five MVFC players were honored as CoSIDA Academic All-Americans with WIU O-Lineman Jacob Judd as the lone first-team selection. Judd is the second Leatherneck to receive this honor twice (2nd team in 2016). The four MVFC players who were named to the second team this year were UNI RB Marcus Weymiller, SDSU OL Wes Genant, SDSU LB Dalton Cox, and WIU LB Brett Taylor. Also (gonna let my Leatherneck flag fly here)…WIU O-Lineman Lucas Holder, who was last year’s Big South Scholar-Athlete of the year while at Liberty, and who completed the grad transfer process to come to WIU for his final year of eligibility, would qualify if not for the technicality of not being at WIU for a full calendar year. Of all players named to the CoSIDA Academic All-American list this year, 13 are going for their masters, and Holder would have likely been the only one with three degrees in 5 years, having earned a bachelor’s in Government in 3 years at Liberty, then a master’s in Public Policy/Public Administration at Liberty, and now finishing up the MBA program at Western.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1212 – Round 4 PREVIEW

Lance & Kris have Josh back for the preview segment and they go into some good detail on our two semi final games this coming week.  It’s almost like these guys know what they are talking about.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1212 – Round 3 REVIEW

Lance & Kr is begin the show this week paying tribute to a legend of FCS coaching with the passing of Tubby Raymond. He lived a great life but the passing of this man is a great loss to our FCS community.

We welcome a new voice into the mixby this week with Josh Clixby as he adds some depth to the cast with a little more detailed X’s & O’s analysis.

A great show to give a listen to and get some perspective on last weekend playoff games.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC – Playoff Week 3 in Review

MVFC LogoFour total games this week. Two were exciting…the MVFC games were, for the most part…not. Everyone reading this is probably pretty well aware already that both JMU’s win over Weber State on a last-second FG and SHSU’s defeat of Kennesaw State were pretty darn exciting games. Not going to bury the lede on this one, so I’ll just go ahead and say that NDSU destroyed Wofford by 32 points and SDSU whomped all over New Hampshire by 42.

#7 Wofford (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (11-1)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
Wofford 3 7 0 0 10
NDSU 14 21 7 0 42

Quick Hits:

  • Wofford – FB Andre Stoddard ran for 18 yards on 6 carries, but had the only TD for the Terriers on a 3-yard run in the 2nd quarter
  • Wofford – PK Luke Carter had a 40-yard FG in the first quarter and kicked off three times averaging 63 yards per kickoff
  • Wofford – LB Colton Clemons led the team in tackling with 14 total and a fumble recovery
  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick threw for 184 yards and 3 TDs and ran for 49 yards and another TD
  • NDSU – RB Bruce Anderson ran for 62 yards and 2 TDs
  • NDSU – TEs Connor Wentz (cousin of that other Wentz guy), Jeff Illies, and RB Seth Wilson all had receiving TDs
  • NDSU – LB Nick DeLuca had 7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and a QB hurry

Wofford actually had the first points of the game on a 40-yard FG. They would hold that lead for roughly 3 minutes until NDSU hit on a 48-yard TD pass to take the lead for good. Another TD a few minutes later and the Bison were up 14-3 after one quarter. Wofford responded strongly with a TD of their own after a Bison fumble to pull within 4. Then…everything fell apart for the Terriers. NDSU drove down for another TD, Wofford took one play to fumble the ball which NDSU took down to the 3 yard line. Two plays later, they’d have TD. On the next kickoff, NDSU again forced a fumble taking over at Wofford’s 32 and turned it into another TD a few plays later. This would give NDSU a 35-10 lead heading into halftime. Outside of a late 3rd quarter TD, the Bison pretty much shut things down in the second half, allowing 77 yards and zero points while eating clock time with a couple of 5+ minute drives to close out the 4th quarter and finish with the 42-10 victory. Wofford put up 177 total offensive yards in this game, which is the fewest they put up all season (including against South Carolina) and NDSU’s 464 total offensive yards was the most that their defense has allowed all season as well.

Wofford finishes their 2017 season at 10-3 overall.
North Dakota State moves on to at 12-1 record and will host the 11-1 #6 seed Sam Houston State Bearkats next Friday night at 7 PM.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 15
Other predictions were:
Massey – 35-7 NDSU
Sagarin – 38-9 NDSU
Compughterratings.com – 37-8 NDSU

It was: Bison by 32
Looks like Sagarin was pretty much the closest on this one. I predicted Wofford hitting 10 points, but expected something more in the mid to high 20s for NDSU…not 40s.

New Hampshire (9-4) at #5 South Dakota State (10-2)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
UNH 0 0 7 7 14
SDSU 21 7 14 14 56

Quick Hits:

  • UNH – QB Trevor Knight threw for 236 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs while running for 14 yards
  • UNH – RB Evan Gray ran for 60 yards and a TD
  • UNH – WR Kieran Presley caught 7 passes for 133 yards and 1 TD
  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion had 190 yards and 2 TDs through the air and 48 yards and 1 TD on the ground
  • SDSU – RB Isaac Wallace led the team with 79 yards and 2 TDs, while RB Mikey Daniel had 42 and 1 TD
  • SDSU – WR Jake Wieneke had a great day, catching for 140 yards and 2 TDs and also running for 48 yards and 1 TD
  • SDSU – DBs Larenzo Williams and Marshon Harris each had INTs

As close as the NDSU game was in the first part of it…this was not. SDSU had 223 yards and 21 points…in the first quarter…on three TD drives. Another TD in the 2nd would give SDSU a 28-0 lead going into halftime. Into the 2nd half, the Jackrabbits again scored to go up 35-0 before UNH finally got their first points with about 4 minutes left in the 3rd. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, SDSU countered by returning the kickoff 99 yards for a TD. A couple more SDSU TDs in the 4th got them to 56 points and they gave up one more TD midway through the 4th quarter (I think they consider that “garbage time”), but would still fall 56-14. TE Dallas Goedert was taken out of the game fairly early with what appeared to be some type of ankle injury (I believe…don’t quote me on that), so it remains to be seen what condition he’ll be in for their game next weekend.

New Hampshire finishes out their season with a 9-5 overall record.
South Dakota State is now 11-2 and will head east to take on the #1 seed and undefeated defending national champion James Madison Dukes (who very nearly bit off more than they could chew in their narrow win over Weber State) at 3:30 Saturday afternoon.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 12-14 points.
Other Predictions:
Massey – 31-13 SDSU
Sagarin – 35-20 SDSU
Compughterratings.com – 35-7 SDSU

It was: Jackrabbits by 42
I don’t think anyone is too surprised by SDSU’s offense being able to put up 52 points on just about anyone although it wasn’t quite as expected in this game. I am impressed that they were able to hold New Hampshire to 14 considering they hadn’t held anyone to that or fewer since early October against SIU.

4 Teams left in the playoffs now. The #1 and #2 seeds both advanced…although as mentioned before, #1 got a huge scare from an unseeded team. All remaining teams are actually teams that were seeded, with #’s 5 and 6 also winning their games. Later this week I’ll preview both of next week’s games, since they both feature MVFC teams: #2 North Dakota State hosting #6 Sam Houston State at 7 PM on Friday and #5 South Dakota State at #1 James Madison at 3:30 PM Saturday afternoon.

MVFC – Playoffs Week 3 Preview

MVFC LogoWeek 3 of the FCS playoffs…the Quarterfinals. We are down to two MVFC teams left in the bracket now…the XDSU’s…Bison and Bunnies. At this point, pretty much all the “pretenders” have been eliminated. There are three unseeded teams still playing this weekend, but all three have had to win an opening round game, then upset a seeded team on the road last weekend to get here.
Here’s the full playoff bracket if you’d like to see what everyone is up to.

Since there are only 4 total games this week, I figured I’d just list them all, even though I’ll only be previewing the two with MVFC teams in them (numbers listed before team names are seeding numbers):

Weber State (11-2) at #1 James Madison (12-0) – 6:00 PM (Friday) on ESPN2
#7 Wofford (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (11-1) – 11:00 AM (Saturday) on ESPN2
New Hampshire (9-4) at #5 South Dakota State (10-2) – 2:00 PM (Saturday) on ESPN3
Kennesaw State (12-1) #6 Sam Houston State (11-1) – 7:30 PM (Saturday) on ESPN3
All games listed in Central time.

Now that we’re down to 4 total games and since the only other college football game going on this weekend is Army at Navy at 2 PM, they were thankfully able to stagger out the games a bit so that there should be little to no overlap between them (one exception is if the Wofford@NDSU goes over 3 hours, it will technically overlap with the UNH@SDSU game just a little). Big FCS fans should be able to catch all the games this weekend without having to resort to streaming on four devices at once.

#7 Wofford (10-2) at #2 North Dakota State (11-1)

This Season/Last Week:

  • Wofford went 9-2 overall in the regular season with a win over fellow playoff team Furman. Their two losses were Samford, who was in the FCS playoffs as well, and South Carolina (an 8-4 SEC East team). Last weekend, they hosted Furman again (repeat of their season opener) and beat them 28-10 this time around.
  • North Dakota State went 10-1 in the regular season with wins over playoff teams Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, and South Dakota. Their only loss this season was to conference rival and current #5 seed South Dakota State. Last weekend, the Bison hosted San Diego (a repeat of last year’s first playoff game for NDSU) where they won 38-3.

History:
The Bison and Terriers have played each other only once in their histories, in the 2012 playoffs when Wofford fell to the #1-seeded Bison 14-7 en route to FCS Championship #2 (of 5 eventually).

In case you’ve been living under a rock all season, NDSU has one of the best defenses in the country (possibly THE best) ranking #2 in the FCS in passing yards allowed, #7 in rushing defense, #2 in scoring defense, and #1 in total defense, allowing an average of 232.6 yards per game. DL Aaron Steidl, LBs Nick DeLuca and Jabril Cox, and DBs Tre Dempsey and Robbie Grimsley have all received all-conference accolades, with Cox being named the MVFC newcomer of the year. On the other side of the ball, they have the #5 rushing offense and #2 scoring offense in the FCS. Their one “weak point” is the passing game, where they are ranked 90th in passing yards per game, however they are 12th in yards per completion and their QB Easton Stick is 5th in the FCS in passing efficiency. I’ve said it multiple times before…they don’t pass the ball often, but when they do, they are accurate. In general, the players and coaches have a ton of playoff experience (probably more than any other team in the playoffs) so to most of them, this is pretty much “business as usual”.

Wofford is an interesting team. Like NDSU, they have a great run game (7th in the FCS) and their stats say that they are near the bottom for passing offense (120th)…but like NDSU, they have that for good reason. Wofford runs a triple-option offense that forces defenders to pay attention to three possible runners…usually a couple of RBs (FB & HB) or the QB himself. The additional run game possibilities that this presents can be tricky for a team that isn’t very disciplined in sticking to their assignments. For Wofford, those possibilities include (Socon All-Conference first team) FB Andre Stoddard (averaging over 67 ypg and has 14 TDs) and HB Lennox McAfee (over 62 ypg and 6 TDs). You can also see HB Blake Morgan get in on both the run game and what little passing game they have, racking up just under 50 ypg w/ 8 TDs on the ground and leading the team with over 33 ypg and 1 TD receiving. They also have a couple of outstanding O-Linemen in Roo Daniels and Ross Demmel who can give the plays time to develop and open holes for those runners to move through. These guys contribute to an O-Line that is 7th in the FCS in sacks allowed.
On defense, they are 17th in the FCS in rushing yards allowed, 51st in passing yards allowed, 30th in scoring defense allowing 20.8 ppg, and 20th in total defense with 315.5 ypg allowed. They don’t get a great deal of pressure behind the line of scrimmage but they do have some talented D-Linemen in Miles Brown (9 tackles for loss) and Tyler Vaughn (2.5 tackles for loss, 3 QB hurries). LB Colton Clemons leads the team in tackles with 75 including 3 sacks, an INT, and a forced fumble. Further back is first-team All-Socon DB Devin Watson who leads the team with 4 interceptions in addition to his 54 tackles (3 for loss), 2 pass breakups, and a forced fumble.

Personally, I don’t think this is a great matchup for Wofford. They’re a great team, but they nearly always run and NDSU is one of the best at stopping the run. Pretty much the only way to beat NDSU’s defense is with a great performance from a strong passing team (like SDSU). I can’t really see Wofford putting up an SDSU-level passing performance. NDSU is a very disciplined team in a familiar situation (playoff football at the Fargodome) and I don’t think they’ll have much trouble sticking to their assignments and stopping the runners generally. The Bison offense is not quite as dominating, especially with the injury to star RB Lance Dunn, but the rest of the guys have still been able to put up points. Now, Wofford’s defense is no slouch, but they’re ranked in most categories somewhere in the range of the mid-upper defensive teams in the MVFC…YSU, ILSU, WIU, SDSU. Those four teams, NDSU put up between 20 and 27 points on and won all but the SDSU game. Most of the “predictions” I’ve seen have NDSU getting something like ~36 points. I’m not sure they’ll quite get there, but I think that where they do get to (my guess…around 25 points) will be enough to beat what Wofford is able to put up (I’m thinking maybe 10 points). So, I’m going with a Bison 15-point win for my prediction.

Other predictions (just for the fun of it, to see who’s more accurate):
Massey – 35-7 NDSU
Sagarin – 38-9 NDSU
Compughterratings.com – 37-8 NDSU

New Hampshire (9-4) at #5 South Dakota State (10-2)

This Season/Last Week:

  • New Hampshire ended up with an 8-4 record with wins over FBS Georgia Southern and playoff team Elon. Losses were to Holy Cross, Albany, playoff team Stony Brook, and the #1 seed in the playoffs, James Madison. In round 1 of the playoffs, they beat NEC champ Central Connecticut 14-0 at home, then last weekend beat the #4 seed Central Arkansas on the road, 21-15.
  • South Dakota State went 9-2 in the regular season with losses to Youngstown State and Northern Iowa in the first half of the season. They have wins over playoff teams Western Illinois, North Dakota State, and South Dakota and last week in their first game of the playoffs, won a rematch with Northern Iowa, 37-22.

History: The Jackrabbits and Wildcats have never played each other.

New Hampshire hasn’t, for the most part, been blowing things up with huge numbers, but they have put together a solid season that saw them just make it into the playoffs. They have proven that their selection wasn’t a complete fluke by winning their first two games. On offense, they have the 20th best passing offense in the FCS but don’t really have much of a run game. They’re led by QB Trevor Knight who puts up ~246 passing ypg and 25 TDs with 8 INTs and frequently throws to All-CAA First Team WR Neil O’Connor, who’s caught over 104 ypg this season with 10 receiving TDs. OL Jake Kennedy is on the All-CAA second team this season and helps give the offense time to air out the ball. The defensive side of the ball for the Wildcats is headlined by LB Quinlen Dean, who averages 9.1 tackles per game and has 11.5 tackles for loss this year, plus a forced fumble, and two interceptions. DL Rick Holt is the team’s #2 tackler, but leads the team in sacks with 9 and was selected to the All-CAA second team. CBs Isiah Perkins (5 interceptions, 8 pass breakups) and Prince Smith, Jr. (2016 CAA Defensive Rookie of the Year, 8 pass breakups, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble) are the men to watch out for in the backfield. Overall, the Wildcat defense (that sounds odd to me…is the “wildcat” an offense? ?) has thrived on creating turnovers, sitting at 7th in the FCS with 27 turnovers (18 INTs, 9 fumbles) gained.

South Dakota State is well known for having one of the most potent passing attacks of any FCS team over the last couple of years (although is down a bit this year), led by QB Taryn Christion, who is an excellent passer (257 ypg, 31 TDs, 8 INTs) but also decent at running the ball (39 ypg, 8 TDs). Christion is throwing to two receivers (one a TE technically) who will both likely be on NFL rosters next year, WR Jake Wieneke and TE Dallas Goedert. Wieneke is having something of a “down” year with only 60 ypg and 13 TDs, but already held many MVFC records for receiving (yards in a season, yards in a career, TD receptions in a career, etc.) before the season even started. Goedert meanwhile, has been carving out another phenomenal season that has seen the TE catch for 87 ypg and 6 TDs. Giving protection to their offense is one of the best O-Linemen in the MVFC, Jacob Ohnesorge. The big man on the defense is actually still only a sophomore…LB Christian Rozeboom with 9.4 tackles per game, but DB Jordan Brown has also come up big at times, sitting at second on the team in tackles with 62, recording 3 INTs, 6 pass breakups, 9 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles. Their weakness on defense is against the run, where they give up just under 170 yards per game on the ground. Overall though, SDSU feels like a much more well-rounded team than they have in the past (where they’ve often been almost an “offense only” team).

So SDSU’s weakness is the run game…well it’s a good thing New Hampshire has such a great…um…oh…101st in the FCS rushing offense. Well, UNH’s weakness is the passing game, where…um…SDSU is 15th in the FCS. So, needless to say, this isn’t a great matchup for the Wildcats. They have shown that they can be tough and stay in games with good teams, but this one doesn’t look good for them to do the same in. Another factor could be the weather. It’s supposed to be around 26 at kickoff and sunny, which is fine, and I’m not saying UNH should have any more trouble with it than SDSU will…New Hampshire gets pretty cold at times too…but there’s a bit of wind predicted throughout the morning (no, not Mt. Washington-level wind) and if that should continue into the afternoon, it could affect the passing game of both teams somewhat. Personally, I think SDSU should win this one fairly easily (as easy as any game this far into the playoffs can be). If there’s not much wind, I think the Jackrabbits win by about 32-18. If there is a decent bit of wind, then probably closer to 24-12, but still SDSU wins. So, essentially, SDSU by ~12-14 points either way.

Other predictions (just for the fun of it, to see who’s more accurate):
Massey – 31-13 SDSU
Sagarin – 35-20 SDSU
Compughterratings.com – 35-7 SDSU

Just a couple of other quick things in MVFC land that came out over this last week:

South Dakota QB Chris Streveler was announced as one of the three finalists for the Walter Payton Award (top offensive player in FCS) along with Sam Houston State QB Jeremiah Briscoe and UC Davis WR Keelan Doss. If he wins, he will be the first USD player and first MVFC player to win the award. Other MVFC finalists for the award include Shakir Bell (Indiana State) in 2011, Matt Barr (Western Illinois) in 2010, Deji Karim (Southern Illinois) in 2009, Herb Donaldson (Western Illinois) in 2008, Eric Sanders (Northern Iowa) in 2007, and Arkee Whitlock (Southern Illinois) in 2006).

Western Illinois LB Brett Taylor was announced as one of the the three finalists for the Buck Buchanan Award (top defensive player in the FCS) along with James Madison DE Andrew Ankrah and Jacksonville State DE Darius Jackson. If Taylor should win, he would become the third Leatherneck to win the award, and the fifth MVFC player to do so. I’m having a hard time finding the list of previous finalists, but the previous MVFC players to win it are Karter Schult (Northern Iowa) in 2016, Kyle Emanuel (North Dakota State) in 2014, Edgerton Hartwell (Western Illinois) in 2000, and James Milton (Western Illinois) in 1998. For Western Illinois, previous finalists for the award include Kyle Glazier in 2010 and Cyron Brown in 1997.

South Dakota State WR Jake Wieneke traveled to NYC as one of the 13 finalists for the Campbell Trophy (top scholar-athlete in all of college football). He was one of three FCS players to be named a finalist and is a Physical/Teacher Ed major with a 3.63 GPA. This year’s award went to Virginia LB Micah Kiser.