The FCS Wedge

Can you believe we’re already to week 11? For all but a few teams (the 24 in the playoffs, plus a few odd scheduling situations), there are only two more games left in their seasons. Quite a few things could be decided this weekend, depending on how the games play out, but it’s also entirely possible that maybe only 1 team will be eliminated from playoff consideration this Saturday.

Couple of quick things:

• Conference-only stats now, just MVFC games (unless stated otherwise)
• Ranking numbers for stats are within the MVFC (unless stated otherwise)
• I will often round to the nearest yard for things like yards per game

All times are listed as Central time zone and ranking numbers based on the AGS Poll. Here’s the full list along with starting times and places you can find them on TV/streaming video:

Saturday, November 10th
11:00 AM – #18 Northern Iowa (5-4, 4-2 MVFC) at Youngstown State (3-6, 2-4 MVFC), ESPN+
12:00 PM – Illinois State (5-4, 2-4 MVFC) at Indiana State (5-4, 3-3 MVFC), ESPN3
1:00 PM – #23 Western Illinois (5-4, 4-2 MVFC) at South Dakota (3-6, 2-4 MVFC), ESPN+
1:00 PM – #6 South Dakota State (6-2, 4-2 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (2-7, 1-5 MVFC), ESPN+
2:00 PM – #1 North Dakota State (9-0, 6-0 MVFC) at Missouri State (4-5, 2-4 MVFC), ESPN+

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Northern Iowa at Youngstown State

The Series: The Panthers and Penguins have faced off 28 times going back to 1978 with UNI holding the 21-8 series lead. In games at Youngstown, UNI has a 9-4 advantage, although the home team has won the last five meetings, 3 at UNI, 2 at YSU. Last year’s game was a 19-14 win for the Panthers.

UNI’s Record: Northern Iowa is 5-4 overall with a 4-2 conference record. They started off the season with losses at Montana and at FBS Iowa, then a home shutout win over Hampton. In-conference, they have beaten Indiana State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, and Illinois State (last weekend’s game), and have lost to North Dakota State and Western Illinois.

YSU’s Record: Youngstown State is 3-6 overall and 2-4 in the MVFC. Their season started with a loss to Butler, a loss at FBS West Virginia, then a win over Valparaiso. In the MVFC, they have wins over Southern Illinois and South Dakota, and losses against Western Illinois, South Dakota State, Indiana State, and last Saturday at North Dakota State.

About Northern Iowa: UNI’s offense ranks 7th in MVFC games in yards per game, but is 4th in points. They lean towards the passing game, putting up 248 ypg through the air but only 139 ypg on the ground. QB Eli Dunne averages 144 ypg with 9 passing TDs and 4 INTs with TE Briley Moore leading the team with a 59 ypg receiving average and 2 TDs. On the ground, RB Marcus Weymiller is #6 in the conference with 83 ypg and 3 TDs and RB Trevor Allen is at #10 with 60 ypg and 3 TDs. The Panther defense is slightly above “average” in total defense and points allowed, and is much better at stopping a ground game (4th) than a passing attack (9th). LB Duncan Ferch picks up 8.8 tackles per game and is second in the MVFC in defending passes  with a 1.67 per game average. LB Rickey Neal Jr. is #2 in the conference in sacks, averaging just under 1 per game (5.5 in 6 games) and has forced 2 fumbles in the 6 MVFC games.

About Youngstown State: YSU’s offense puts up even fewer yards than UNI’s (377/game) but is last in the conference in putting up points (19.2). Both their offensive run game and passing game rank 6th in MVFC contests. QB Montgomery VanGorder has been starting most of the season, so is the one showing up at the top of the stats lists for the Penguins, but it looks like QB Nathan Mays is projected to start this game instead (he played some in the last two games). I don’t have great numbers for him for this season, since he’s only been playing sparingly, but over this year he’s played in 3 games, has a 57% completion rate with 1 TD and 0 INTs (on 28 passes) and has an efficiency rating of 130.4, which currently would put him around 8th in the MVFC. WR Jermiah Braswell has 18 receptions this season with a 17.2 ypc average for 52 ypg and 2 TDs. RB Tevin McCaster is the biggest name on YSU’s offense, running for 96 ypg and 5 TDs. McCaster is also currently 43 yards away from his second consecutive 1k+ rushing yardage season. The Penguins are, in general, much better on defense than they are on offense ranking 4th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense and having the #1 pass defense allowing only 202 ypg. LB Armand Dellovade is the star on that side of the ball, with 9.7 tackles per game (and had 16 against NDSU last weekend) and DT Savon Smith has 3.5 sacks in 6 games.

My Take: I think that, overall, UNI is a better team than YSU, although YSU’s defense really impressed me last weekend against NDSU and showed that they’re not giving up on a strong finish to the season. UNI, however, is fighting for a playoff spot and needs to close out the season with two more wins to reasonably be assured an at-large spot. I think they’ll be able to do it, pulling out a win by a TD, 28-21.

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Illinois State at Indiana State

The Series: The battle of the ISU’s has taken place 69 times starting back in 1936. Illinois State has a 37-30-2 advantage in the series and has only lost twice in the last 10 years. Last year’s matchup was a 24-13 victory for the Redbirds in Normal.

ILSU’s Record: The Redbirds are 5-4 with a 2-4 conference record. They started the season with three straight wins against NAIA Saint Xavier, Eastern Illinois, and at FBS Colorado State. In the MVFC, they have wins over Western Illinois and Southern Illinois and losses to Missouri State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and last week lost to Northern Iowa by 10.

INSU’s Record: The Sycamores are also 5-4 although they have a 3-3 conference record. They had a win over DII Quincy, lost at FBS Louisville, and like ILSU, have a win over Eastern Illinois. In conference, they have wins over Southern Illinois, Youngstown State, and last weekend’s 3OT win over South Dakota. Losses were against Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, and Missouri State.

About Illinois State: On offense, the Redbirds are 9th in the conference in total offense and 7th in scoring. The ground game is right about in the middle of the pack averaging 160 ypg, and in the passing game they’re a little below average, sitting at 7th with 207 ypg. QB Brady Davis looks like he’ll be the starter this weekend after missing the last game and a half due to an injury. He’s averaging 170 ypg with 9 TDs and 3 INTs. His top targets are WR Spencer Schnell with 68 ypg and 5 TDs and R-Freshman WR Andrew Edgar who has 64 ypg with 3 TDs. On the ground, RB James Robinson is the top active RB in the conference, averaging 97 ypg with 5 TDs. For the season, Robinson is 39 yards from hitting 1,000 rushing yards. The Redbird defense is #2 in the MVFC in both points allowed (22.5) and yards allowed (339 ypg). They are #3 both against the run (118 ypg) and the pass (221 ypg). LB Zackary Mathews leads the team with 9 tackles per game and DE Romeo McKnight has 6.5 tackles for loss through 6 MVFC games. DBs Devin Taylor and Luther Kirk have 2 interceptions each and Taylor has 6 pass breakups.

About Indiana State: The Sycamores have the #1 run game in the conference (246 ypg) but the #8 passing game (201.5 ypg), which adds up to #1 in total offense (447 ypg) and #3 in scoring (32.5 ppg). Part of the high run game numbers is the contributions of RB Ja’Quan Keys, who was lost a few games ago due to injury. Despite having only played in 4 MVFC games, he’s still 3rd in the conference in total rushing yards and 1st in rushing TDs. Since Keys has been out, others have really picked up the slack, with QB Ryan Boyle accounting for 380 yards of total offense and 7 TDs (passing + rushing) in their game last week, for example. Boyle is averaging 88 ypg with 4 TDs…rushing (in MVFC games) and through the air, he’s putting up 155 ypg with 10 TDs. Their top WR is Dante Hendrix at 85 ypg with 4 TDs. On the other side of the ball, INSU is 8th in points allowed (33.7 ppg) and 9th in yards allowed (478 ypg). Their run defense is last in the conference (250 ypg allowed) but they’re 6th in pass defense (227.7 ypg). They do have a handful of big time playmakers, however, with LBs Jonas Griffith and Katrell Moss leading the MVFC in tackles per game with 13.8 and 12.5 per game respectively and DB Jamal Jones comes in at #4 with 10 per game and leads the conference in recovered fumbles with 3 in 6 MVFC games.

My Take: The Redbirds have lost three straight…Sycamores have won three straight. With both teams at 5-4, both still have a shot at the playoffs, but they both have to win out. That’s obviously not going to happen…someone’s going to win this game. INSU has momentum on their side, but ILSU has been playing the toughest teams in the conference the last few weeks. My heart kinda wants Indiana State to win this, because of the turnaround from last year’s winless season, but I think Illinois State is going to do just enough to win, 30-28.

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Western Illinois at South Dakota

The Series: The Leathernecks and Coyotes have faced off 8 times starting with a home & home series in 1976 and ‘77 that were both wins for USD. The two teams have played every year since 2012, with all but last year’s contest being a win for the Leathernecks. Last year was a 38-33 win for the Coyotes at Macomb, but was also the game where WIU WR Jaelon Acklin set the conference record for receiving yards in a game (343, 4th best in FCS history) and receptions in a game (19).

WIU’s Record: Western Illinois is 5-4 with a 4-2 conference record. They started with a close loss at Montana State, loss at FBS Illinois, and a win over Montana. In the MVFC, they have victories over Youngstown State, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and last weekend against Southern Illinois, and losses against Illinois State and North Dakota State.

USD’s Record: South Dakota is 3-6 overall and 2-4 in the MVFC. Their non-conference games included a close loss at FBS K-State, a win over Northern Colorado, then a loss at Weber State. In-conference, they have wins over Southern Illinois and Missouri State, and their losses are against Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, North Dakota State, and last week’s 3OT battle against Indiana State.

About Western Illinois: In MVFC games, WIU sits at #5 in total offense (404 ypg) and #6 in scoring (28.3 ppg). The run game is near the bottom, only putting up an average of 118 ypg, but the passing game is the best in the conference, with 287 ypg. QB Sean McGuire has a 274 ypg average (2nd in the MVFC)  with 14 TDs and 7 interceptions. WR Isaiah Lesure sits at #2 in the conference with 91 ypg and 4 TDs receiving and RB Clint Ratkovich has picked up 54 ypg with 3 TDs. As I mentioned, the ground game hasn’t been great this year, but RB Steve McShane is really more of an “all-around” threat, with 63 ypg and 5 TDs on the ground, 34 ypg and 2 TD receiving, and averages 11.7 per punt return. The WIU defense is currently the best at limiting total yardage with a 327 ypg average, #1 at stopping the run (110 ypg) and #2 against the pass (217 ypg) although they’ve given up 28.3 ppg, which is 6th in the conference. They lead the conference in sacks with 22. Defensive leaders include LB Quentin Moon with 8.5 tackles per game and LB Pete Swenson who leads the conference in tackles for loss (2.75 per game) and sacks (1.5 per game). Moon and Swenson are also tied for #1 in the MVFC in forced fumbles, with 3 each through 6 games. DBs Xavier Rowe and Zach Muniz are #2 and #4 in the MVFC for defended passes.

About South Dakota: South Dakota’s offense is #3 at covering yardage (417 ypg) and is tied for #4 in scoring with 28.8 ppg. Like WIU, they lean heavily on the passing game, putting up 283 ypg (#2) through the air, but only 134 ypg (#8) on the ground. QB Austin Simmons is the top QB in the conference for average passing yards per game with 280 along with 9 TDs and 4 interceptions. Simmons has also run for 24 ypg and 1 TD. WRs Dakarai Allen (90 ypg w/ 3 TDs) and Levi Falck (45 ypg w/ 2 TDs) are the top receivers and RB Kai Henry gets most of the ground yardage, averaging 56 ypg with 5 TDs. Henry is also #2 in the conference at kick returns, averaging just over 28 yards per return. Their O-line has been an issue, however, giving up 20 sacks through 6 MVFC games. When the other team has the ball, USD gives up the third-most yards in the MVFC (476 ypg) and the most points (38.8 ppg). They’re stronger against the pass (5th) than they are against the running game (9th). DB Andrew Gray leads the Coyotes in tackles with 9 per game with twin brother LB Alex picking up 7.7 per game. DB Mark Collins leads the conference in defended passes, averaging 2.4 per game with 1 interception.

My Take: WIU generally seems to do well playing in Vermillion and is still in the hunt for a playoff spot. USD is already out of playoff consideration at this point, but that just means they’ve got nothing to lose and would love to be the spoiler to Western. I think the offenses are fairly comparable between the two teams, but WIU’s defense has been playing pretty well, especially lately. Any team in the MVFC can be dangerous if you underestimate them but I think that having last-place SIU nearly knock off WIU last weekend will be the wake-up call that the Leathernecks need to push through. I think that it’ll be a close game, but that Western Illinois will stay ahead just enough to win by a couple of FGs, 34-28.

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South Dakota State at Southern Illinois

The Series: The Jackrabbits and Salukis have played 8 times starting in 2008 with SDSU holding a 5-3 series lead. SIU won the first two meetings, before SDSU took over and won 5 out of the last 6. Last year’s game was a 49-14 Jackrabbit win in Brookings.

SDSU’s Record: South Dakota State is 6-2 with a 4-2 conference record. Their first game at FBS Iowa State was cancelled due to weather, then they beat both Montana State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home. In the MVFC, they have wins over Indiana State in OT, Youngstown State, Illinois State, and last Saturday against Missouri State. Their losses came against North Dakota State and Northern Iowa.

SIU’s Record: Southern Illinois is 2-7 this season and 1-5 against the MVFC. Non-conference matchups included a win over Murray State, loss at FBS Ole Miss, and a close loss to non-conference rival Southeast Missouri State. They have a conference win over Missouri State and losses against South Dakota, Youngstown State, Illinois State, Indiana State, and last weekend against Western Illinois

About South Dakota State: SDSU has the #2 offense in the MVFC in both scoring (35.5 ppg) and total yardage (421 ypg), with the #4 run game (188 ypg) and #5 passing game (232 ypg). They’re led by QB Taryn Christion, who counts for pretty much all of the passing yards, has 14 TDs and 6 interceptions, and is decent at running the ball, picking up 27 ypg with 3 TDs. The top RB is Mikey Daniel with 51 ypg and 3 TDs, while R-Freshman RB Pierre Strong Jr. has really picked up steam since Isaac Wallace went down to injury, having a 136 yard & 2 TD performance last week. WRs Cade Johnson (86 ypg, 5 TDs) and Adam Anderson (66 ypg, 5 TDs) are both in the top 10 of the MVFC. The offensive line is exceptional, limiting MVFC teams to a league-fewest 6 total sacks in 6 games and overall the offense is the least-penalized with only 41 yards per game in penalty yards. PK Chase Vinatieri may not be the most accurate FG kicker in the conference, but has a pretty serious range, making FGs from as far as 57 yards this season. The SDSU defense is good at limiting scoring (3rd w/ 23 ppg) despite giving up a decent number of yards (6th w/ 376 ypg). They’re 4th against the pass in MVFC games and 5th against the run. LB Christian Rozeboom leads the team with 6.7 tackles per game with DL Ryan Earith sitting at #3 in the conference in tackles for loss, averaging 1.25 per game. DB Jordan Brown defends passes at a rate of 1.17 per game, with 2 interceptions.

About Southern Illinois: The Saluki offense puts up 23.7 ppg (8th) against MVFC teams and is 7th in total yards (382 ypg), with much of it coming from their ground game where they are 3rd in the conference at 196 ypg. The passing game is 9th at 186 ypg. QB Matt DeSomer was given the starting job a few games ago and in those 3 games, has averaged 193 ypg through the air with 6 TDs and 2 interceptions, and has averaged 81 ypg with 1 TD rushing. Their other main rusher is RB DJ Davis, who is #7 in the MVFC with 74 ypg and 4 TDs. WR Raphael Leonard gets most of the receiving yards with 73 ypg and 1 TD, but TE Nigel Kilby also contributes to the short passing game, with 41 ypg and 4 TDs. On defense, SIU gives up the 7th fewest points and total yards in the conference, at 32 ppg and 425 ypg. They’re also 7th both against the run and against the pass. They’re decent at putting pressure on opposing QBs, sitting at 3rd for sacks (15 total in 6 games) and tied for 2nd for number of interceptions with the most interception return yards, picking up 176 yards and a TD off of 8 interceptions. LB Bryce Notree is their tackle leader, averaging 8.3 per game and DE Anthony Knighton is tied for 4th in the conference for sacks (4 in 6 games). DB Jeremy Chinn currently leads the conference in interceptions with 3 and has returned them for a total of 95 yards (also #1 in the MVFC).

My Take: SIU very nearly came away with a win last weekend against a decent WIU team, while SDSU absolutely crushed Missouri State. I feel like SIU might have a bit of a let-down after last weekend’s heartbreaking loss. I think South Dakota State should fairly solidly win this game, although it’ll be a bit closer than their game last week. My prediction is a 38-23 Jackrabbit win.

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North Dakota State at Missouri State

The Series: The Bison and Bears have faced off 10 times beginning in 2008. NDSU has the 8-2 advantage in the series and have won the last 7 straight. MSU’s wins came in 2009 and 2010. Last year’s matchup was a 38-11 win for NDSU in Fargo.

NDSU’s Record: 9-0…6-0 in the conference. Non-conference wins over Cal Poly, North Alabama, and Delaware (all in Fargo). Wins at home against South Dakota State, Illinois State, and last weekend against Youngstown State, with road wins at Northern Iowa, Western Illinois, and South Dakota.

MSU’s Record: The Bears are 4-5 this season, with a 2-4 conference record. They opened the season with a loss at FBS Oklahoma State, a win over DII Lincoln University, and a win over Northern Arizona. In the MVFC, they have wins over Illinois State and Indiana State, and losses to South Dakota, Western Illinois, Southern Illinois, and their game last weekend at South Dakota State.

About North Dakota State: The NDSU offense ranks 4th in total offense (416 ypg) with the #2 run game (238 ypg) and last-place passing offense (177.3 ypg). The thing is, they don’t have to have a great passing offense in terms of big numbers when their ground game is so good and their offensive efficiency is also #1 in the conference. That just means that when QB Easton Stick does pass, he usually does it well and makes very few mistakes (only 2 INTs). For scoring, NDSU is #1 in the conference at 35.8 ppg. QB Stick averages 159 ypg with 11 TDs (and the 2 INTs) and WR Darrius Shepherd is the #1 receiver in the conference at 96 ypg with 4 TDs. Otherwise, it’s all about the ground game, with RBs Lance Dunn (83 ypg w/ 5 TDs), Bruce Anderson (65 ypg), and the QB Stick (49 ypg w/ 6 TDs) all in the top 15 in the conference for rushing yards. Shepherd is also at the top of the conference for punt returns, averaging 19.7 yards per return. The O-line does their part, allowing only 8 sacks (tied for #2 in the conference) in 6 MVFC games and Punter Garret Wegner helps the field position battle with a 43.3 yard average on 30 punts with 12 inside the 20. The Bison defense is also #1 in allowing points, giving up only 15 per game, and are #3 in total yards allowed (350 ypg). They’re #2 at stopping the run (111 ypg) but have been vulnerable to a good passing game at times, giving up 239 ypg through the air (8th). They are #2 in the conference at sacking opposing QBs (17 sacks) and are #1 in interceptions (10). No one specific player gets a huge number of tackles, but everyone does pretty much exactly what’s needed. LB Jabril Cox leads the team with 7 tackles per game and also has 3 sacks and LB Dan Marlette is just behind him with 6.8 tackles per game. DE Greg Menard is #3 in the MVFC for sacks with 5.5 through 6 games, and DB’s Jalen Allison, Robbie Grimsley, and James Hendricks have 2 interceptions each.

About Missouri State: The Bears have a pretty good passing offense, sitting at #4 in the conference at 243 ypg. That’s…well…that’s kinda about it, as they’re last in rushing offense (117 ypg) and total yardage (360 ypg) and 2nd to last in points put on the board (19.2 ppg). QB Peyton Huslig is the star of the offense, passing for 238 ypg with 9 TDs and running for 34 ypg with 4 TDs…although he also has 9 interceptions. Doing most of the catching are WRs Tyler Currie and Lorenzo Thomas, who have 69 ypg (4 TDs) and 62 ypg (1 TD) respectively. On defense, MSU is giving up a league-worst 484 ypg, are particularly weak against the pass (10th, 251 ypg) and only slightly better against the run (8th, 233 ypg). They give up 36.8 points per game, 9th in the MVFC. LBs Angelo Garbutt and McNeece Egbim lead the team in tackles with 10.5 and 9.3 per game with DE Matt McClellan picking up 3.5 sacks in 6 games. S Jared Beshore has 2 interceptions against MVFC teams.

My Take: Despite NDSU struggling against YSU last weekend, they’re still pretty well “head and shoulders” above everyone else in the FCS. If anything, I think last week might be a “wake up call” for the Bison and they will step things up for the last couple of games of the season. Against MSU, they have the advantage in pretty well every aspect of the game, so I just don’t really see this being a close game. NDSU doesn’t completely blow anyone out usually…once their up by a few scores, they usually take their foot off the gas and let their defense and punishing ground game just grind away until the game is over. I see this one being about like that, and NDSU coming away with something resembling a 36-10 win.

The Scores

South Dakota – 48
Indiana State – 51
3 OT’s

Illinois State – 16
Northern Iowa – 26

Western Illinois – 34
Southern Illinois – 31

Missouri State – 7
South Dakota State – 59

Youngstown State – 7
North Dakota State – 17

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South Dakota at Indiana State

The host Sycamores struck first on an 11-yard TD pass from QB Ryan Boyle to WR Dakota Caton, but the Coyotes were able to respond on their next drive with a bunch of plays, mostly runs, ending in an 8-yard TD run by RB Canaan Brooks to tie things up. A decent kick return gave ISU the ball at midfield to start their next drive and they were able to get that one into the end zone on a 20-yard run by the QB Boyle. In the 2nd quarter, ISU was only able to pick up 8 yards on a 3rd and 13, but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on USD gave them the 1st down and they were able to march down the field for another TD, this time a 14-yard TD pass to WR Dante Jones II to put ISU up 21-7. A few drives later, USD started on their own 8 yard line and took 16 plays to get the the other end of the field. With a 4th and goal from the 3, QB Austin Simmons threw a TD pass to RB Kai Henry, but it was negated by offsetting penalties (replay the down), so USD had to give it another go, this time hitting WR Dakarai Allen on a 3-yard TD pass to pull within 7, making the halftime score 21-14 for the Sycamores.

Late in the 3rd, USD was in the red zone, but a completed pass turned into a fumble forced by ISU LB Jonas Griffith and picked up by LB Katrell Moss. Indiana State wasn’t able to do anything with it though, picking up only 1 first down on their next drive. Nearing the end of the quarter, though, the Coyotes QB Austin Simmons hit a 28-yard TD pass to WR Levi Falck to tie things up at 21. In the 4th, ISU got down to the 5 yard line on a 37-yard pass to WR Caton, but had to settle for a FG. USD responded similarly, using a 40-yard pass to WR Shamar Jackson to get close, eventually to the ISU 2, but also settled for a FG. On their next drive, Indiana State QB Boyle ran for 39 yards, got an additional 15 yards on a USD penalty, then on the next play, ran 25 yards in for the TD to take the lead with under 3 minutes left. South Dakota then took all but the last 16 seconds to work their way down the field and finish with a TD pass to TE Brett Samson, tying things up at 31, and they were on to “bonus” football.

In the first OT period, USD QB Austin Simmons ran 24 yards to the 1, and then was taken in by RB Henry. ISU needed only one play to answer with a 25-yard TD pass to WR Dante Hendrix.
In the second OT, ISU took an eternity (comparatively) of 6 plays before TE Zach Larkin caught a TD pass, but it was USD’s turn to answer after 3 more plays on a 10-yard run by Henry.
On to the third overtime period, South Dakota started with the ball, but wasn’t able to move it much of anywhere and had to come away with a 27-yard FG. On Indiana State’s turn, though, Boyle was able to run 15 yards to get them close, and a few plays later pick up a TD on a pass to Hendrix, securing the 3-point win (you don’t try for the XP in that situation).

USD QB Austin Simmons threw for 375 yards with 3 TDs with 94 yards going to WR Shamar Jackson and 88 yards and a TD to WR Dakarai Allen. RB Kai Henry ran for 113 yards and 2 TDs. LB Alex Gray led the team with 12 tackles (6 solo) and CB Isaac Armstead forced a fumble recovered by LB Alex Coker. ISU QB Ryan Boyle threw for 193 yards and 5 TDs while running for 187 yards and 2 TDs. The combined 7 TDs was a school record and it earned Boyle both the MVFC Offensive Player and Newcomer of the Week awards. RB Titus McCoy also had 123 yards on the ground, while WRs Dante Hendrix and Dakota Caton had 111 yards w/ 2 TDs and 53 yards and 1 TD respectively. LBs Katrell Moss and Jonas Griffith continued their domination with 18 tackles and a fumble recovery for Moss, and 16 tackles with 1 sack and a forced fumble for Griffith. For his performance, Moss was awarded the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award.

South Dakota drops to 3-6 overall with a 2-4 conference record and will head back home to host Western Illinois in a week. Indiana State is now 5-4 and is 3-3 against MVFC teams and will stay home hosting Illinois State next weekend.

Final from Memorial Stadium!

Sycamores win in triple overtime on Ryan Boyle's pass to Dante Hendrix!

ALLIN pic.twitter.com/PVZM1qeKFV

— Indiana State Football (@IndStFB) November 3, 2018

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Illinois State at Northern Iowa

Right off the bat, ISU started with good field position after a failed onside kick by UNI gave the Redbirds the ball at the UNI 28. A few runs later, they had the first points on a 27-yard FG. UNI answered with their own 30-yard FG by PK Austin Errthum on their next drive, which then became a defensive stalemate until the 2nd quarter, when UNI was able to get another 30-yard FG, moving ahead 6-3. UNI got down to the 9 on their next drive after holding ISU to a 3-and-out and picked up another 3 on a 27-yard FG. In the time honored words of band directors everywhere…”do it again”…another 3-and-out for ISU, another 11-play drive ending in a FG for the Panthers, this time from 43 yards out. On ISU’s next play from scrimmage, QB Jake Kolbe threw a pass to UNI LB Duncan Ferch who was able to take it 31 yards to the end zone to put UNI up 19-3. Late in the 2nd, UNI QB Eli Dunne threw his own INT to ISU DB Devin Taylor in the Panther’s end zone to hold the UNI lead at 16 going into halftime.

In the 3rd, ISU QB Kolbe threw another pass to someone in purple, this time UNI DB Korby Sander. Two plays later, RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 14 yards into the end zone to go ahead 26-3. Defense reigned the rest of the quarter, as it wasn’t until nearly halfway through the 4th when the next points showed up on an 11-yard pass by Kolbe to WR Spencer Schnell to pull back within 16. On their next drive, ISU again found their way to the end zone on a 38-yard TD pass to WR Braxton Haley, but the 2-pt conversion would fail, giving the Redbirds a 10-point deficit with under 4 minutes remaining. UNI was then able to pick up a couple of first downs and eat the remaining time, coming away with a 26-16 victory.

ISU QB Jake Kolbe had 180 yards and 2 TDs through the air, with WRs Braxton Haley and Spencer Schnell catching those TDs. RB James Robinson was held to 40 yards rushing and was kept out of the end zone, something only two other teams had been able to do this season (MSU and SDSU). DB Luther Kirk led the Redbirds with 10 tackles (6 solo) and DB Devin Taylor had a solid game with 5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 pass breakup and 1 QB hurry. Punter JT Bohlken averaged 42.9 yards per on 8 punts. UNI QB Eli Dunne threw for 262 yards and 1 INT. WR Briley Moore topped the receiving list with 4 catches for 76 yards, but Marcus Weymiller handled most of the ground game, picking up 109 yards (out of a team total of 125 yards) and 1 TD. DB Korby Sander led the Panthers with 10 tackles (4 solo) and an INT, while LB Duncan Ferch had 5 tackles to go along with his INT->TD. Punter Michael Kuntz had 5 punts averaging 43.8 with 4 dropping within the 20, but it was kicker Austin Errthum who nailed 4 FGs (long of 43), had 7 kickoffs averaging 65 yards, converted 2 XP attempts, and came away with the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award.

Illinois State falls to 5-4 overall and 2-4 in conference and will head over to Terre Haute to take on Indiana State next weekend. Northern Iowa is also 5-4, but has a 4-2 conference record and will head out east to take on Youngstown State in a week.

That will do it. The Panthers take the 26-16 win over Illinois State and move to 5-4 on the year and 4-2 in @ValleyFootball play. #UNIFIght pic.twitter.com/q0vsDS5Kv9

— UNI Football (@UNIFootball) November 3, 2018

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Western Illinois at Southern Illinois

The weirdness started early in this game, when 4 plays in, SIU RB D.J. Davis was stripped of the ball by WIU DT Shabar Wilson, which was landed on by LB Zach Glisan. 3 plays into WIU’s drive, QB Sean McGuire threw a pass to SIU S Jeremy Chinn. Not to be outdone, 3 plays later, SIU QB Matt DeSomer tossed one to WIU DB Darron Wheeler. So…10 plays, 3 turnovers…and we weren’t even 5 minutes into the game. A bit later though, SIU had figured out how to hold onto the ball and got it into the end zone on a 4-yard run by RB Davis. WIU responded on their next drive, when RB Max Norris got WIU down to the SIU 1 yard line on a 40-yard run and RB Steve McShane took it in to tie things up. In the 2nd quarter, WIU took the lead on a 14-yard pass to RB Clint Ratkovich. SIU took their next drive to the WIU 19 and had to settle for a FG to pull within 4. After pinning the Leathernecks deep at their own 3 and the Saluki defense holding them to a total gain of 2 yards, a punt from the end zone and a 13-yard return gave SIU the ball at the WIU 39, which they were able to take into the end zone on a 20-yard pass to WR JeQuan Burton, giving SIU a 17-14 lead into halftime.

WIU started with the ball in the 3rd on the 50 after a failed onside kick on the kickoff and were able to get down to the SIU 1 yard line but were stopped on 3rd and goal. The 19-yard FG was good, but a roughing the kicker penalty gave WIU another chance to get it into the end zone (or to keep the points). Now, it’s hard to tell from the video, but it looked like WIU had the ball at the 1, kicked the FG, took the penalty (which the ref said was half the distance to the goal and replay the down) but then put the ball back at the 1 yard line. I can’t confirm that, but I know that one of our radio guys was absolutely livid about it. Anyway, the 4th and goal attempt from the 1 failed, which essentially felt like the “turning point” of the game. SIU then drove 98 yards in 12 plays including a couple of big passes to WRs Raphael Leonard and Landon Lenoir and RB Jonathan Mixon was able to run the final 2 yards for a TD to give SIU a 10 point lead. Two plays into the next drive, WIU QB McGuire threw a low pass right into the hands of SIU DE Anthony Knighton. 6 plays later, SIU QB DeSomer had thrown a 30-yard TD pass to WR Leonard and SIU was up 31-14 going into the final quarter. WIU was able to get down to the SIU 16 and get a 34-yard FG from kicker Sam Crosa to pull within 14, then on SIU’s next play from scrimmage, WIU DE Kyle Williams forced the ball from the hands of SIU RB Mixon, which was recovered by DT Shabar Wilson. The Leathernecks were able to move down the field and top it off with a 4-yard TD run by RB McShane, bringing them within 7. WIU’s defense only allowed 1 first down on the next drive, forcing a punt that pinned WIU at their own 4 yard line…which was when everything completely went off the rails for the Salukis. An incomplete pass turned into 15 yards from a pass interference. Another incomplete pass…another pass interference…another 15 yards. A completed pass to RB Steve McShane popped out of his hands and right into the hands of a SIU defender…but was negated because what helped cause the fumble was someone yanking on his facemask…15 more yards for WIU. Then, a couple of incomplete passes later, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against the SIU bench (radio guys said it was actually against AD Jerry Kill who was still upset about the facemask penalty nullifying the turnover. So, now that SIU had spotted WIU 60 yards from penalties, the Leathernecks were able to finish the rest of the way, eventually hitting a 5 yard pass to TE Adam Conrady to tie things up at 31 with under 4 minutes left in the game. SIU took 2 minutes on 6 plays during their next drive but were only able to advance the ball a net 3 yards, and WIU used a 26-yard pass to WR Isaiah Lesure to get close enough for PK Sam Crosa to hit a 33-yard FG to go ahead by 3. The Salukis were able to get just across the 50 with very little time left on their next drive before WIU LB Pete Swenson sacked DeSomer and forced a fumble that was picked up by DE Khalen Saunders. Saunders, in his excitement, started running with the ball and got 8 yards before he realized the situation and just downed the ball, effectively ending the game, completing the epic comeback, and sealing the win, 34-31 for the Leathernecks.

WIU QB Sean McGuire threw for 283 yards and 2 TDs but also had 2 INTs, with 71 yards of those going to WR Tony Tate. RB Max Norris had the most ground yards with 91, while RB Steve McShane had 32 yards and 2 TDs. LB Quentin Moon led the team with 10 tackles (5 solo), 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble. LB Pete Swenson had 7 tackles (6 solo), with 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. DE Kyle Williams and DT Shabar Wilson also had forced fumbles with Wilson, LB Zach Glisan and DL Khalen Saunders all recovering fumbles. SIU QB Matt DeSomer had 208 yards and 2 TDs through the air with 1 INT, and ran for 15 yards (his fewest in a starting role by quite a bit). WR Raphael Leonard caught 6 passes for 97 yards and 1 TD and RB Jonathan Mixon led the ground game with 71 yards and 1 TD. S Qua Brown led the Salukis with 10 tackles (7 solo) and a forced fumble. S Jeremy Chinn had 8 tackles and an INT with 2 pass breakups, and DE Anthony Knighton picked up an interception as well.

Western Illinois moves up to 5-4 with a 4-2 conference record and will head up to the DakotaDome to take on South Dakota next weekend. Southern Illinois drops to 2-7 overall and 1-5 in the MVFC. They’ll have a tough last couple of weeks starting with their final home game against South Dakota State next weekend (then at NDSU to end the season).

🗣️ WHAT A COMEBACK

Your Leathernecks overcame a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter en route to a 34-31 victory over Southern Illinois.

Sam Crosa sent it through the uprights for the 33-yard, game-winning field goal.#TRADITIONofTOUGH pic.twitter.com/dZ8W5AsPd8

— Western Illinois Football (@WIUfootball) November 3, 2018

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Missouri State at South Dakota State

A few drives into the game, SDSU got their first of many points on a 1-play drive that was a 55-yard TD run by R-Freshman RB Pierre Strong Jr. A pass by SDSU QB Taryn Christion was intercepted by MSU S Jared Beshore, but the Bears weren’t able to do anything with it. In the 2nd quarter, SDSU’s Strong ran for another long TD, this time from 54 yards out. A while later, a 34-yard pass to WR Cade Johnson made it 21-0 Jackrabbits. 3 plays from scrimmage later, LB Christian Rozeboom picked off MSU QB Peyton Huslig, and SDSU used 1 play and 5 seconds to score again on a 42-yard TD pass to WR Johnson. MSU was held to a 3-and-out on the next drive and SDSU used a 32 yard run by WR Deyon Campbell to get close enough for a 45-yard FG by PK Chase Vinatieri, pulling ahead 31-0, still with over 4 minutes left in the first half. MSU Tyler Currie finally got the Bears on the board after a 7-play, 75-yard drive with a 10-yard TD catch, but the Jackrabbits answered right back a few plays later with a 32-yard TD run by QB Christion, making the halftime score 38-7.

In the 3rd, MSU QB Huslig had a pass intercepted by SDSU CB Jordan Brown, but they weren’t able to turn it into points, missing on a 53-yard FG attempt. At this point, MSU put in R-Freshman QB Dalton Hill, who had his 3rd pass attempt intercepted by LB Logan Backhaus. It wasn’t until 2 drives later that SDSU would start at the MSU 37 and a couple of passes later, find the end zone again on a 12-yard pass to WR Adam Anderson. 3-and-out for MSU on their next drive, but SDSU gave it right back on another interception by MSU’s Beshore, but the Bears weren’t able to get anywhere with it. In the 4th quarter, QB Christion again hit a TD pass to WR Anderson…this time from 19 yards, putting them up 52-7. MSU was stopped again on their next drive and to add insult to injury, had their punt blocked giving SDSU the ball nearly in the red zone. A few plays later and RB Blair Mulholland took it 1 yard into the end zone. MSU then put in QB JT Granato, who also had his third play result in an interception, this time by SDSU S Jarek Berg. SDSU would miss a 27-yard FG, keeping them under 60 points, but still the Jackrabbits were able to finish the game with a 59-7 victory.

MSU QB Peyton Huslig had 134 yards passing with 1 TD and 2 INTs (and the two other players in at QB had 19 total yards and 2 INTs). 78 of those passing yards and the lone TD went to WR Tyler Currie. LB Angelo Garbutt had 11 tackles in the game (7 solo) and S Jared Beshore had 4 tackles to go along with his 2 interceptions. SDSU QB Taryn Christion threw for 259 yards and 4 TDs with 2 INTs and ran for 32 yards and 1 TD. WRs Cade Johnson and Adam Anderson each had 2 receiving TDs, with Johnson getting 130 yards and Anderson with 85. RB Pierre Strong ran for 136 yards and 2 TDs. LBs Eric Kleinschmit and Logan Backhaus along with DE Ryan Earith led the team with 5 tackles each. Backhaus had an interception and Earith had a sack. LB Christian Rozeboom, S Jarek Berg, and CB Jordan Brown all had interceptions as well.

Missouri State falls to 4-5 after losing their last 3 and are 2-4 in conference. They’ll head back home and host North Dakota State next weekend for Senior Day. South Dakota State meanwhile is 6-2 with a 4-2 conference record and head down south to take on Southern Illinois in Carbondale in a week.

FINAL | Jacks take this one 59-7! Taryn Christion passed for 4 touchdowns, completing 15 of 28 passes for 259 yards while also rushing for a TD!#LastPlay | #GoJacks pic.twitter.com/RSEz3xkcZh

— SDSU Football (@GoJacksFB) November 3, 2018

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Youngstown State at North Dakota State

Defenses were solid in this game, with the longest play in the first quarter being 13 yards and the most interesting thing a fumble by NDSU RB Ty Brooks forced by YSU LB Armand Dellovade and recovered by DB Avery Larkin. In the 2nd, a 52-yard missed FG by NDSU kicker Cam Pederson kept the game scoreless until nearly 6 minutes into the quarter when QB Easton Stick threw a couple of big passes…50 yards to WR Desmond Cain to set up a 30-yard TD pass to RB Lance Dunn and giving the Bison a 7-0 lead. Later in the quarter, a NDSU punt was blocked, giving YSU the ball at the NDSU 12 yard line. A couple of plays later, on 3rd and 10 from the 12 QB Nathan Mays completed a 9-yard pass, but apparently didn’t realize that they hadn’t gotten the 1st down because he immediately took the snap and “clocked” the ball…turning it over on downs 3 yards away from the end zone. NDSU was able to just down it to run out the clock in the half, up only by a TD.

In the 3rd quarter, it was much of the same defensive battle, until about 3 minutes left in the quarter when YSU would tie things up with a 21-yard TD pass to TE Miles Joiner. Early in the 4th though, NDSU would get a lead that they would not relinquish after a drive that ended in three straight runs by QB Stick totaling 11 yards and a TD. The Bison held the Penguins to a 3-and-out on their next drive and were able to get close enough for a 36-yard FG to go up by 10. YSU then put in QB Montgomery VanGorder (who had been their starting QB for most of the season) but was only able to get just about to midfield before an incomplete pass on 4th and 2. NDSU’s next drive ended with another failed FG attempt, this time from 42 yards out and while YSU was able to move the ball 46 yards to the NDSU 30, VanGorder’s pass was intercepted by NDSU S Robbie Grimsley. From there, the Bison were able to just kneel and walk away with a 17-7 victory.

YSU QB Nathan Mays threw for 120 yards and 1 TD while running for 58 yards and QB VanGorder had 85 yards passing and 1 INT. TE Miles Joiner had the lone TD reception along with 39 yards receiving and WR Jermiah Braswell led the Penguins with 60 yards on 3 catches. LB Armand Dellovade led the team with 16 tackles (7 solo) and the forced fumble. NDSU QB Easton Stick threw for 197 yards and 1 TD and ran for 43 yards and 1 TD. RB Lance Dunn finished with an even 100 net yards on the ground and 1 30-yard TD catch, while WR Darrius Shepherd came up 1 yard short of triple-digits with 99 yards on 8 catches. LBs Jabril Cox and Dan Marlette each had 8 tackles, each with 1 tackle for loss, and S Robbie Grimsley had 6 tackles to go with his interception. DE Greg Menard had 1.5 sacks and 2 QB hurries.

Youngstown State is now 3-6 on the season with a 2-4 conference record. They’ll host UNI for Senior Day next weekend. North Dakota State is still undefeated, 9-0 overall and 6-0 in the MVFC and have officially locked up the conference championship again. They’ll travel to Missouri State next Saturday.

9-0.

And we've clinched the MVFC's automatic bid to the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/oV1lYyUVB5

— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) November 3, 2018

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MVFC Standings

Team, Overall (MVFC) – last two games
North Dakota State, 9-0 (6-0) – @MSU, SIU
South Dakota State, 6-2 (4-2) – @SIU, USD
Northern Iowa, 5-4 (4-2) – @YSU, MSU
Western Illinois, 5-4 (4-2) – @USD, INSU
Indiana State, 5-4 (3-3) – ILSU, @WIU
Illinois State, 5-4 (2-4) – @INSU, YSU
Missouri State, 4-5 (2-4) – NDSU, @UNI
South Dakota, 3-6 (2-4) – WIU, @SDSU
Youngstown State, 3-6 (2-4) – UNI, @ILSU
Southern Illinois, 2-7 (1-5) – SDSU, @NDSU

As usual, “Professor Chaos” over at AnyGivenSaturday.com has written an excellent breakdown of each team’s playoff chances and they need to do…you can go check out here.
The short version is essentially:
NDSU has locked up the conference auto-bid.
SDSU needs to win 1 of their last 2 to make it in.
WIU, UNI, ILSU, and INSU all could make it into the playoffs if any of them win their last two. They can’t all win out as INSU still has games against ILSU and WIU to finish out the season.
MSU, USD, YSU, and SIU are all effectively eliminated

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How’d I Do?

USD at INSU – I thought INSU 30-27. It was INSU 51-48. So, I had the margin right, and the score at the end of regulation was tied at 31, so I was close with those numbers too…only got higher because of the 3 OT periods.

ILSU at UNI – I thought ILSU 28-21. It was UNI 26-16. I should have listened to the UNI fans that informed me that “farley-ing it up” meant that they’d crush the Redbirds and then somehow lose to Missouri State at the end of the season.

WIU at SIU – I though WIU 32-24. It was WIU 34-31. Pretty close overall, although I did not expect how it played out. I did say it felt like a “trap game” and WIU has always had a hard time in Carbondale (this was the first win there since 2000), so it wasn’t a huge surprise that we struggled.

MSU at SDSU – I thought SDSU 41-21. It was SDSU 59-7. Ok, so they just flat out destroyed MSU. My predictions did say “I think SDSU’s offense will probably tear apart MSU’s defense”…so that’s pretty much correct.

YSU at NDSU – I thought NDSU 56-7 and that the Bison could “name their score”. It was 17-7 in a defensive struggle that could have easily been tied at the end if one or two plays had gone a slightly different direction (like not directly at the ground on 4th down). I don’t feel like I can count this as a “win” in terms of my prediction…it was NOTHING like I expected to see.

Previously I was 11-9 in my picks. 3-2 this week, so I’m 14-11 now.

Only two weeks remain in the regular season. Up next weekend is Northern Iowa at Youngstown State, Illinois State at Indiana State, Western Illinois at South Dakota, South Dakota State at Southern Illinois, and North Dakota State at Missouri. UNI, WIU, and the two ISU’s need to keep winning to keep their playoff hopes alive, so that means that one of the ISU’s will effectively be eliminated next weekend and two other games will have significant impact on some “bubble teams” playoff chances.

Just as a quick reminder, I’m now for the most part using conference games-only numbers for the stats as it helps weed out some of the “inflated” stats from some of the early OOC games and give a better idea of where teams are at this point in the season against more “equivalent” competition.
When I have conference ranking numbers for stats, it will be out of 10 total MVFC teams (so 10th = last) and if I use stats from another source, I’ll mention that.
If I reference NCAA FCS stats, then it includes numbers for all games, not just MVFC games.
Also, I will occasionally round to the nearest whole yard when talking about averages…just makes things simpler sometimes (and really…when you’re comparing a guy who throws for 271.6 ypg to a guy who throws for 170.2 ypg…do the .6 and .2 really matter that much?) Sound good?

All times are listed as Central time zone and ranking numbers based on the AGS Poll. Here’s the full list along with starting times and places you can find them on TV/streaming video:

Saturday, November 3rd
12:00 PM – South Dakota (3-5, 2-3 MVFC) at Indiana State (4-4, 2-3 MVFC), ESPN+
1:00 PM – #14 Illinois State (5-3, 2-3 MVFC) at #24 Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2 MVFC), ESPN+
1:00 PM – Western Illinois (4-4, 3-2 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (2-6, 1-4 MVFC), ESPN3
2:00 PM – Missouri State (4-4, 2-3 MVFC) at #7 South Dakota State (5-2, 3-2 MVFC), ESPN+
2:30 PM – Youngstown State (3-5, 2-3 MVFC) at #1 North Dakota State (8-0, 5-0 MVFC), ESPN+

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South Dakota at Indiana State

The Series: The Coyotes and Sycamores have faced off a total of 4 times starting in 2012. USD holds the series lead 3-1 and last year, South Dakota won 56-6 at home.

USD’s Record: South Dakota is 3-5 overall and 2-3 in the MVFC. They lost to FBS K-State, beat Northern Colorado, then lost at Weber State for their non-conference games. In the MVFC, they won at SIU by 7, beat MSU by 7, lost to UNI by 14, lost at YSU by 12, and last week, lost to NDSU at home by 45.

INSU’s Record: Indiana State is 4-4 with a 2-3 conference record, with wins over DII Quincy and Eastern Illinois and a loss to Louisville. In conference, they got beat by UNI by 33, took SDSU to OT losing by 3, lost by 3 to MSU, then won by 3 at SIU, and beat YSU by 26.

South Dakota: USD’s offense is almost entirely in the passing game. They’re 2nd in the MVFC in passing ypg with 265, but last in rushing ypg with 115.4. In total, they average 25 ppg (8th) and 380.4 ypg (10th). QB Austin Simmons is the key to the offense, sitting at #2 in the conference with 261 ypg and 6 TDs with 4 INTs. WR Dakarai Allen is the top receiver on the Coyotes and is #3 in the conference with just over 90 ypg and 2 TDs. They have two RBs who average in the low-40’s for rushing ypg (Kai Henry and Ben Klett) and both have 3 TDs. The Coyote defense is about average against the pass (6th) but has been vulnerable to a good running game (9th). Overall, they allow 36.4 ppg (last) and 469.2 ypg (9th). DB Andrew Gray tops the team in tackles with 9.2 per game, and has 2 forced fumbles and 2 INTs in MVFC games. LB Jack Cochrane is right behind with a 9.0 tackles per game average and he has 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. DB Mark Collins leads the MVFC in passes defended with 2.4 per game (11 breakups, 1 INT). Both the previously mentioned Andrew Gray and DL Darin Greenfield are tied with a few other players in the conference with 2 forced fumbles in 5 MVFC games. Across the entire NCAA and all games this season, USD is 121st out of 124 FCS teams in time of possession, averaging only 25:40 with the ball, but they’re also 8th nationally in fumbles recovered with 9.

Indiana State: ISU’s stats are a bit skewed by having one of the top RBs in the country for much of the season, but then suffered a career-ending injury before last week’s game. Their passing offense is, overall, 8th in the conference and their rushing offense is 2nd, but if you look at the stats from last week’s game (BIG win over YSU), they only had 125 yards on the ground. One receiver beat that total by himself in receiving yards and they had 351 yards total through the air with 3 TDs. If this is an indication of how the ISU offense is going to go the rest of the season, then projections may have to be modified. WR Dante Hendrix looks like he might be the primary beneficiary of the changes to the offense, as he had been averaging 52.75 ypg but had 186 yards and 2 TDs last week. QB Ryan Boyle, who had been averaging 166 ypg and had 2 passing TDs in MVFC games, had 325 yards and 3 TDs last week and ran for 68 yards. The other thing they do well is limit turnovers. ISU is tied for #1 in the entire FCS in turnovers lost with 3 total for the whole season…2 interceptions, 1 fumble. The Sycamore defense is a little easier to decipher…last against the run (254.6 ypg), first against the pass (198.2 ypg) and allowing 30.8 ppg (6th). LBs Jonas Griffith and Katrell Moss are #1 and 2 in the conference in tackles, averaging 13.4 and 11.2 respectively with Griffith ranking 4th in the FCS across all games in that stat. DB Jamal Jones leads the MVFC in fumbles recovered with 3 and they have two other players who are tied with a few others for the #2 position.

My Take: This is a tricky one to pick. ISU looks to be handling the loss of RB Ja’Quan Keys really well so far, and the passing offense has taken off. USD is statistically not as good as YSU against the passing game, so i think that trend will continue for the Sycamores. South Dakota passes the ball a lot (most attempts and completions in the MVFC), but ISU’s defense is really good at stopping that. ISU is also great at limiting turnovers and they’re “trending up”, so I think they’ll take this one by a FG. Sycamores with a 30-27 home win.

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Illinois State at Northern Iowa

The Series: The Redbirds and Panthers have faced off 33 times since 1972 with UNI holding a 20-13 series lead. The two teams haven’t met since 2015, which was a 21-13 win for Illinois State.

ILSU’s Record: Illinois State is 5-3 this season with a 2-3 conference record. They went 3-0 in non-MVFC games, beating NAIA St. Xavier, rival Eastern Illinois, and FBS Colorado State by 16 points. In the MVFC, they lost at MSU by 3 on a blocked FG, beat WIU by 17 and SIU by 48, lost by 14 at NDSU, then lost to SDSU back home by 10.

UNI’s Record: Northern Iowa is an even 4-4 and are 3-2 in the MVFC. They started the season with losses at Montana and FBS Iowa, then a home shutout win over Hampton. In-conference, they won at INSU by 33, lost by 25 to NDSU, won at USD by 14 and back home over SDSU by 15, then lost by 20 at WIU.

Illinois State: When the Redbirds have the ball, they mostly rely on their run game, which accounts for 185.2 ypg (4th) with 7 TDs. Through the air, they’re 8th, averaging 212.4 ypg, but they do get most of their TDs that way, with 12 coming on passes. QB is a bit of a question mark for ISU, with Brady Davis getting most of the snaps this season, but Jake Kolbe (who had been the #1 QB for the last couple of years) having played off-and-on this season and getting put in for the second half of last week’s game after Davis had struggled with turnovers and moving the ball. As of me writing this, ISU has not announced who will be the starter this week yet. The RB position, on the other hand, is a strength for ISU, with James Robinson sitting at #3 in the conference (#2 of “active” players) averaging 107.8 ypg with 5 TDs, and Markel Smith averaging nearly 55 ypg with 1 TD and a 7 yards per carry average. WR Andrew Edgar only catches for 69 ypg, but averages 19.2 ypc on 18 catches, which leads the conference. Illinois State also has a solid defense, allowing 116.6 ypg on the ground (2nd) and 213 ypg through the air (3rd) giving them the #2 defense in the conference in both total yards allowed and scoring. LB Zackary Mathews tops the list in tackles with 9.4 per game (7th in MVFC) and DE Romeo McKnight is tied for 7th in tackles for loss with 1.1 per game. DB Luther Kirk is tied (with 7 other players) for #1 in the conference with 2 through 5 games. Punter JT Bohlken is still having a good season, averaging 43.5 yards per punt in MVFC games with 14 of his 32 punts dropping within the 20 and overall is 9th best in the FCS.

Northern Iowa: The Panthers are…well, I guess you could say “above average” in their passing game, but a bit “below average” in their run game. They’re not blowing anyone away in either, but they’re not horrible. They put up 245.4 ypg with 9 TDs through the air and 141.8 ypg with 6 TDs on the ground. QB Eli Dunne is 4th in the conference with 245 ypg and 9 TDs and 3 INTs, but he’s not really a running threat…at all…averaging -26 rushing ypg. WRs Briley Moore and freshman Deion McShane are averaging 56 and 40.4 ypg receiving and on the ground, RB Marcus Weymiller is 6th in the conference with 77.4 ypg and 2 TDs. Overall, they’re very good at getting points once they get into the red zone, sitting at #7 in the entire FCS with a .931 average (from what I heard they were perfect from the red zone until last weekend’s game). On the other side of the ball, the Panther defense is 4th in the conference at stopping the run, allowing 139.2 ypg, but are last in their pass defense, giving up 253 ypg. They’re pretty good about keeping teams from scoring though, giving up 26 ppg, third in the MVFC and have kept opposing offenses out of the end zone in 3 of their games. LB Duncan Ferch is tied for #5 in the conference with a 9.6 tackles per game average and has 8 pass breakups and 1 INT to put him at #2 in the conference in defended passes with 9 total through 5 games. LB Rickey Neal Jr. has 3.5 sacks in that same timeframe, which ties him for #2 in the conference for sacks.

My Take: Both teams pretty much have to win the rest of their games to continue their playoff hopes. UNI has been somewhat weak against the run, giving up their most ground yards against NDSU and UNI, both teams who have (or had when they played the game) some of the better RBs in the conference. The last couple of weeks have not been kind to any sort of “transitive analysis”, with UNI beating SDSU two weeks ago and SDSU beating ILSU last week, but on the other hand, ILSU beat WIU a few weeks ago and WIU just beat UNI last week…and in all of those games, the margin was greater than 1 score. UNI gets a little boost for being at home, but I think ISU’s defense is going to make things pretty difficult for UNI’s offense to do much. Because ISU’s offense relies on the run so much, I don’t think the QB issue will be that big of a deal, but Robinson is hard to stop…he put up 145 yards and 3 TDs against the best run defense in the conference (WIU). I could see this easily going either way, but to me, it all adds up to Illinois State probably winning this by a fairly narrow margin, maybe 28-21…also referred to by UNI fans as “Farley-ing it up”.

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Western Illinois at Southern Illinois

The Series: The Leathernecks and Salukis have played 63 times going back to 1933. WIU has the lead in the series, 36-23-4, at one point winning 18 straight (1984-2001) before SIU won 9 straight (2002-2010). The last 4 matchups have been even, with WIU winning in 2015 and 2017, and SIU winning in 2014 and 2016. Last year’s game was a 28-14 victory for WIU on November 18th. The home team has won the last 4 meetings.

WIU’s Record: WIU is 4-4 overall with a 3-2 conference record. They opened the season with a close loss at Montana State, then a loss at FBS Illinois, before heading home and beating Montana by 4. In the MVFC, they beat YSU by 7, lost at ILSU by 17, lost at home against NDSU by 27, then went on the road and beat MSU by 17 and won at home against UNI by 14 last weekend.

SIU’s Record: SIU is 2-6 on the season and 1-4 in the MVFC. They opened with a big win over Murray State, then losses at FBS Ole Miss and a close one at home against non-conference rival Southeast Missouri State. In the conference, they lost to South Dakota, lost by 3 at Youngstown State, got steamrolled at Illinois State, lost by 3 back home against Indiana State, then went on the road and earned their first conference win over Missouri State by 14.

Western Illinois: The Leathernecks have the #3 offense in the MVFC in terms of yardage, heavy on the passing game, which puts up 287.2 ypg, is #1 in the conference. The run game is 9th, however, only moving the ball 115.8 ypg on the ground. QB Sean McGuire leads the conference in passing ypg with 271.6, 12 TDs and 5 INTs (3 of which came while already down against NDSU). WR Isaiah Lesure leads the conference in receiving ypg with 96.6 and 4 TDs while RB Clint Ratkovich comes in at #12 with 56.2 ypg and 2 TDs. As mentioned, the ground game is somewhat lacking, but is led by RB Steve McShane with 58.75 ypg and 4 TDs on the ground. McShane, however, is a threat in many aspects of the game, picking up 36.2 receiving ypg with 2 TDs, and is #2 in the conference on punt returns with 11.7 ypg. In total, McShane leads the MVFC in all-purpose yards, accounting for just under 150 ypg across all aspects. On defense, WIU is only allowing 321.4 ypg (1st) and are stronger against the run (102.6 ypg, 1st) than they are against the pass (218.8 ypg, 4th). They have, however, allowed an average of 27.2 ppg, which puts them right in the middle of the conference in that regard. LB Quentin Moon and DL Khalen Saunders lead the team in tackles with 8.2 and 7.8 per game respectively. Saunders and LB Pete Swenson are the top two in the conference for tackles for loss, and Swenson’s total season average of 2 tackles for loss per game puts him at #2 in the FCS (sacks per game is 1.13 overall, #4 in the FCS). Leatherneck DBs Xavier Rowe, Zach Muniz, and Justin Fitzpatrick are ranked 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the MVFC for passes defended per game including 2 INTs for Fitzpatrick and 1 each for the other two.

Southern Illinois: The Saluki offense is 9th in the conference in both total ypg (387.2) and scoring (22.2 ppg). They do have a fairly strong running attack, putting up 205.6 ypg with 8 TDs, but only 181.6 ypg and 6 TDs on the ground. Their starting QB for most of the season, Sam Straub, was benched before the Indiana State game and #2 QB Matt DeSomer took over. Since then, DeSomer has thrown for 185.5 yards per game with 4 TDs and 1 INT in those two games. He’s also run for 113.5 ypg with 1 TD rushing and was awarded the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week for last week’s performance. D.J. Davis is the top RB for the Salukis, putting up 85.6 ypg (4th in the MVFC) with 3 TDs. WR Raphael Leonard averages 68.4 ypg receiving (9th) and TE Nigel Kilby is used more in short/red zone situations, only averaging 53.33 ypg, but with 4 TD receptions in conference games. On defense, SIU allows 31.6 ppg (8th) and 427.8 ypg (7th), and they seem to do a bit better against the passing game (5th) than they do on the ground (7th). LB Bryce Notree is tied for 7th in the MVFC with 9.4 tackles per game and DE Anthony Knighton is tied for #2 with 6 other players in sacks per game with .7. DB Jeremy Chinn has 2 interceptions in 5 conference games and averages 1 pass defended per game.

My Take: SIU is out of playoff consideration, but WIU is still in it, needing to win their remaining games to have a good chance. So, SIU has nothing to lose in this game and would love to play the spoiler. SIU has improved quite a bit with QB DeSomer at the helm. He’s a running threat, but WIU has done pretty well against running QBs (shutting down MSU’s Huslig and NDSU’s Stick), but RB D.J. Davis is a quality RB that will be tough to stop. The Leatherneck O-line did a really good job last week, but they’ll have their hands full again with the DE Knighton and LB Notree. Overall, this feels like it could be a “trap game” if WIU doesn’t show up like they did against UNI. On the plus side, SIU doesn’t seem to play well at home, with both of their wins coming on the road. I think Coach Elliott will have the Leathernecks ready to play though, and Western will come away with a 32-24 win.

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Missouri State at South Dakota State

The Series: The Bears and Jackrabbits have met up on the gridiron 10 times starting in 2008. SDSU has won 9 of the 10 meetings, with the only MSU win occurring in 2013 at Plaster Stadium. SDSU has won the 4 meetings since then with last year’s game being a 62-30 beat-down in Springfield, MO.

MSU’s Record: Missouri State is 4-4 overall with a 2-3 record against MVFC teams. They lost their opener against FBS Oklahoma State, beat DII Lincoln University, and crushed Northern Arizona. In-conference, they beat ILSU by a blocked FG, lost at USD by a TD and at INSU by a FG. They hosted WIU for Homecoming and got rolled by 17 points, then hosted SIU and got beat by 14.

SDSU’s Record: South Dakota State has a 5-2 record and is 3-2 against conference teams. They started the season with a game at Iowa State, but after one drive, the game was cancelled due to heavy thunderstorms. They then hosted Montana State, beating them by quite a bit, and hosted Arkansas-Pine Bluff, beating them by…well…it’s not GA Tech vs Cumberland kinda numbers, but it’s about as close as you’re going to get in the modern age. In the MVFC, they lost to NDSU by 4 at the Fargodome, took OT to earn a home win over INSU by 3, and beat YSU by 29. They then hit the road dropping a game at UNI by 15 and then winning at ILSU by 10.

Missouri State: The Bears offense leans heavily towards the pass while utilizing the feet of QB Peyton Huslig to get much of the job done on the ground. Huslig averages 258 ypg with 8 TDs and 7 INTs through the air, and 40 ypg with 4 TDs on the ground (he’s their #1 rusher), which in total makes him the conference leader in total offense, accounting for just slightly under 300 ypg. The run game, however, is 8th in the conference, putting up only 134 ypg. WRs Lorenzo Thomas and Tyler Currie both average in the 67-69 ypg range and they have 1 and 3 receiving TDs respectively, and they have two other players that average just under 50 ypg. Overall, MSU is 7th in the conference in both yards and points per game. MSU’s defense is in the bottom 3 of the conference for yards and points allowed, as well as both run and pass defense, so they’ve really had trouble stopping decent offensive teams. LBs Angelo Garbutt and McNeece Egbim are the “bright spots” on the defense both averaging above 10 tackles per game, at #3 and #4 in the conference. 1.2 of tackles from Egbim and DE Matt McClellan are for loss, tying them for #4 in the MVFC.

South Dakota State: Despite being ranked right in the middle of the conference (5th-6th) in total yards per game, rushing ypg, and passing ypg, the Jackrabbits can put up a decent amount of points, sitting at #2 with a 30.8 ppg average. QB Taryn Christion is 5th in the conference, putting up 225 ypg with 10 TDs through the air and 26 ypg with 2 TDs on the ground. He may not put up huge numbers, but he does have the highest efficiency rating in MVFC games and is #4 in the entire FCS. RB Mikey Daniel has had to pick up the slack after RB Isaac Wallace (had been averaging 83 ypg) went down in the YSU game with a career-ending hip injury. Daniel is currently averaging 47 ypg, but had 84 yards and 2 TDs last weekend. WR Cade Johnson is the #5 receiver in the MVFC, catching 77 ypg (16.8 per catch) with 3 TDs. Across all games in the FCS, SDSU is #2 in fumbles lost and has thrown the 16th fewest interceptions, making them 4th in the FCS in turnovers lost and 10th overall in turnover margin. On the other side of the ball, SDSU again “out-kicks their coverage” (not literally), averaging 6th-7th in the conference in rushing, passing, and total ypg, but only giving up 26.2 ppg…4th of the MVFC teams. LB Christian Rozeboom averages 7.6 tackles per game and DT Krockett Krolikowski is tied for #2 in the conference, coming up with 3.5 sacks in 5 games. Punter Brady Hale averages over 42 yards per kick with 14 of his 31 punts dropping within the 20 yard line.

My Take: Missouri State isn’t a bad team, and they’re better than they’ve been in recent history, but SDSU is pretty much better across the board. Assuming the defensive “stalemate” that was much of the UNI game was a fluke, I think SDSU’s offense will probably tear apart MSU’s defense. SIU put up 49 points on them and the Jackrabbits’ offense is better than SIU’s. MSU is ok in the offensive department, but they’re not going to be able to keep up. I think we’ll see something like a 41-21 SDSU win in this game.

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Youngstown State at North Dakota State

The Series: The Penguins and Bison have played 12 times starting back in 1972 with NDSU holding the the series lead 8-4. North Dakota State has won the last 6 matchups and last year’s game was a 27-24 OT victory for the Bison.

YSU’s Record: Youngstown State is 3-5 overall and 2-3 in the conference. They opened with a loss against Butler and a road loss at FBS West Virginia, then back home beating Valparaiso. In the MVFC, they lost at WIU by 7, beat SIU by 3, fell at SDSU by 29, headed back home where they took down USD by 12 and then got crushed by INSU by 26.

NDSU’s Record:

At this point it kinda feels redundant. They haven’t lost and last week they steamrolled USD. They’re 8-0.

Youngstown State: YSU kinda has the opposite situation as SDSU. Rushing, passing, and total ypg are all solidly in the middle of the conference (5th-6th), but scoring is dead last, putting up 21.6 ppg. I’m not quite sure what the QB situation is over there right now, as QB Montgomery VanGorder is averaging 205 ypg with 6 TDs and 6 INTs, but also struggling at times at finding receivers (that don’t play for the other teams). QB Nathan Mays has put in playing time in the last two games, although he hasn’t had much success either. Mays is more of a running QB though, rushing for an average of 52 ypg in the last two games. Really, the primary offensive threat for YSU is RB Tevin McCaster who’s #2 in the conference (#1 of active players) with 111 yards per game and 5 TDs. The Penguin defense is fairly solid against the pass, only giving up 203 ypg (2nd) and are overall giving up 361 ypg (3rd), although, like their offense, scoring is an issue, giving up 31 ppg (7th). LB Armand Dellovade averages 8.4 tackles per game and DT Savon Smith is #3 in the conference in tackles for loss with 7. DB D.J. Smalls is tied for #7 among MVFC players for passes defended with 5 breakups and 1 INT that was taken back for a TD.

North Dakota State: NDSU’s offense is all about the run game…it helps set up everything they do on that side of the ball. Fortunately for the Bison, they’re very good at it, averaging 253 ypg (1st in the MVFC) with 16 TDs. The passing game is last in the conference at 173 ypg with 10 TDs, although with a passing efficiency rating of nearly 13 points higher than the #2 team in the conference, when they need to pass, they do it well. QB Easton Stick is the one doing the majority of the passing, but he’s also run for 50 ypg with 5 TDs…which means that in terms of the number of rushing TDs, he’s tied for #2 in the conference. RB Lance Dunn gets 80 ypg and also has 5 rushing TDs. When NDSU goes to the air, it’s often to WR Darrius Shepherd, who has 96 ypg on 25 catches with 4 TDs, and a 19.1 yards per catch average. Defensively, they are good at stopping the run, allowing only 118 ypg but are actually 8th in the conference against the pass (246 ypg). They have a ton of great defensive players (and a least a couple will likely be playing on Sundays within a few years), but because a lot of them contribute nearly equally well, combined with the good time of possession average that NDSU has, their actual stats aren’t as high as some other teams top players. LB Jabril Cox gets 6.8 tackles per game and has 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 3 pass breakups. LB Dan Marlette has 6.6 tackles per game, 2 pass breakups, and a fumble recovery returned 38 yards for a TD, and S Robbie Grimsley gets 6.2 tackles per game with 1 sack, 1 INT, and 2 pass breakups. DE Greg Menard is tied for #2 in the conference with 3.5 sacks in 5 conference games. CB Jalen Allison and FS James Hendricks have 2 interceptions each. However you want to break it down though NDSU is #1 in the stats that really matter in the grand scheme of things…points per game (39.6) + points allowed (16.6) = 100% win percentage.

My Take: The best offensive weapon YSU has is their RB…NDSU is excellent against the run. YSU is weaker against the run game and NDSU has the best ground game in the conference. The Bison O-Line and D-Line are beasts and have given NDSU a great deal of their success over the last decade. NDSU is on a roll, playing their best football…YSU feels like they’ve given up on the season. Oh, and it’s at the Fargodome, which is never an easy place to play. This one’s gonna get real ugly real fast. I think the Bison win this one easily…like…whenever they want to take their foot off the gas, that’s the margin. Maybe…idk…56-7.