The FCS Wedge

Just as a quick reminder, I’m now for the most part using conference games-only numbers for the stats as it helps weed out some of the “inflated” stats from some of the early OOC games and give a better idea of where teams are at this point in the season against more “equivalent” competition.
When I have conference ranking numbers for stats, it will be out of 10 total MVFC teams (so 10th = last) and if I use stats from another source, I’ll mention that.
If I reference NCAA FCS stats, then it includes numbers for all games, not just MVFC games.
Also, I will occasionally round to the nearest whole yard when talking about averages…just makes things simpler sometimes (and really…when you’re comparing a guy who throws for 271.6 ypg to a guy who throws for 170.2 ypg…do the .6 and .2 really matter that much?) Sound good?

All times are listed as Central time zone and ranking numbers based on the AGS Poll. Here’s the full list along with starting times and places you can find them on TV/streaming video:

Saturday, November 3rd
12:00 PM – South Dakota (3-5, 2-3 MVFC) at Indiana State (4-4, 2-3 MVFC), ESPN+
1:00 PM – #14 Illinois State (5-3, 2-3 MVFC) at #24 Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2 MVFC), ESPN+
1:00 PM – Western Illinois (4-4, 3-2 MVFC) at Southern Illinois (2-6, 1-4 MVFC), ESPN3
2:00 PM – Missouri State (4-4, 2-3 MVFC) at #7 South Dakota State (5-2, 3-2 MVFC), ESPN+
2:30 PM – Youngstown State (3-5, 2-3 MVFC) at #1 North Dakota State (8-0, 5-0 MVFC), ESPN+

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South Dakota at Indiana State

The Series: The Coyotes and Sycamores have faced off a total of 4 times starting in 2012. USD holds the series lead 3-1 and last year, South Dakota won 56-6 at home.

USD’s Record: South Dakota is 3-5 overall and 2-3 in the MVFC. They lost to FBS K-State, beat Northern Colorado, then lost at Weber State for their non-conference games. In the MVFC, they won at SIU by 7, beat MSU by 7, lost to UNI by 14, lost at YSU by 12, and last week, lost to NDSU at home by 45.

INSU’s Record: Indiana State is 4-4 with a 2-3 conference record, with wins over DII Quincy and Eastern Illinois and a loss to Louisville. In conference, they got beat by UNI by 33, took SDSU to OT losing by 3, lost by 3 to MSU, then won by 3 at SIU, and beat YSU by 26.

South Dakota: USD’s offense is almost entirely in the passing game. They’re 2nd in the MVFC in passing ypg with 265, but last in rushing ypg with 115.4. In total, they average 25 ppg (8th) and 380.4 ypg (10th). QB Austin Simmons is the key to the offense, sitting at #2 in the conference with 261 ypg and 6 TDs with 4 INTs. WR Dakarai Allen is the top receiver on the Coyotes and is #3 in the conference with just over 90 ypg and 2 TDs. They have two RBs who average in the low-40’s for rushing ypg (Kai Henry and Ben Klett) and both have 3 TDs. The Coyote defense is about average against the pass (6th) but has been vulnerable to a good running game (9th). Overall, they allow 36.4 ppg (last) and 469.2 ypg (9th). DB Andrew Gray tops the team in tackles with 9.2 per game, and has 2 forced fumbles and 2 INTs in MVFC games. LB Jack Cochrane is right behind with a 9.0 tackles per game average and he has 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. DB Mark Collins leads the MVFC in passes defended with 2.4 per game (11 breakups, 1 INT). Both the previously mentioned Andrew Gray and DL Darin Greenfield are tied with a few other players in the conference with 2 forced fumbles in 5 MVFC games. Across the entire NCAA and all games this season, USD is 121st out of 124 FCS teams in time of possession, averaging only 25:40 with the ball, but they’re also 8th nationally in fumbles recovered with 9.

Indiana State: ISU’s stats are a bit skewed by having one of the top RBs in the country for much of the season, but then suffered a career-ending injury before last week’s game. Their passing offense is, overall, 8th in the conference and their rushing offense is 2nd, but if you look at the stats from last week’s game (BIG win over YSU), they only had 125 yards on the ground. One receiver beat that total by himself in receiving yards and they had 351 yards total through the air with 3 TDs. If this is an indication of how the ISU offense is going to go the rest of the season, then projections may have to be modified. WR Dante Hendrix looks like he might be the primary beneficiary of the changes to the offense, as he had been averaging 52.75 ypg but had 186 yards and 2 TDs last week. QB Ryan Boyle, who had been averaging 166 ypg and had 2 passing TDs in MVFC games, had 325 yards and 3 TDs last week and ran for 68 yards. The other thing they do well is limit turnovers. ISU is tied for #1 in the entire FCS in turnovers lost with 3 total for the whole season…2 interceptions, 1 fumble. The Sycamore defense is a little easier to decipher…last against the run (254.6 ypg), first against the pass (198.2 ypg) and allowing 30.8 ppg (6th). LBs Jonas Griffith and Katrell Moss are #1 and 2 in the conference in tackles, averaging 13.4 and 11.2 respectively with Griffith ranking 4th in the FCS across all games in that stat. DB Jamal Jones leads the MVFC in fumbles recovered with 3 and they have two other players who are tied with a few others for the #2 position.

My Take: This is a tricky one to pick. ISU looks to be handling the loss of RB Ja’Quan Keys really well so far, and the passing offense has taken off. USD is statistically not as good as YSU against the passing game, so i think that trend will continue for the Sycamores. South Dakota passes the ball a lot (most attempts and completions in the MVFC), but ISU’s defense is really good at stopping that. ISU is also great at limiting turnovers and they’re “trending up”, so I think they’ll take this one by a FG. Sycamores with a 30-27 home win.

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Illinois State at Northern Iowa

The Series: The Redbirds and Panthers have faced off 33 times since 1972 with UNI holding a 20-13 series lead. The two teams haven’t met since 2015, which was a 21-13 win for Illinois State.

ILSU’s Record: Illinois State is 5-3 this season with a 2-3 conference record. They went 3-0 in non-MVFC games, beating NAIA St. Xavier, rival Eastern Illinois, and FBS Colorado State by 16 points. In the MVFC, they lost at MSU by 3 on a blocked FG, beat WIU by 17 and SIU by 48, lost by 14 at NDSU, then lost to SDSU back home by 10.

UNI’s Record: Northern Iowa is an even 4-4 and are 3-2 in the MVFC. They started the season with losses at Montana and FBS Iowa, then a home shutout win over Hampton. In-conference, they won at INSU by 33, lost by 25 to NDSU, won at USD by 14 and back home over SDSU by 15, then lost by 20 at WIU.

Illinois State: When the Redbirds have the ball, they mostly rely on their run game, which accounts for 185.2 ypg (4th) with 7 TDs. Through the air, they’re 8th, averaging 212.4 ypg, but they do get most of their TDs that way, with 12 coming on passes. QB is a bit of a question mark for ISU, with Brady Davis getting most of the snaps this season, but Jake Kolbe (who had been the #1 QB for the last couple of years) having played off-and-on this season and getting put in for the second half of last week’s game after Davis had struggled with turnovers and moving the ball. As of me writing this, ISU has not announced who will be the starter this week yet. The RB position, on the other hand, is a strength for ISU, with James Robinson sitting at #3 in the conference (#2 of “active” players) averaging 107.8 ypg with 5 TDs, and Markel Smith averaging nearly 55 ypg with 1 TD and a 7 yards per carry average. WR Andrew Edgar only catches for 69 ypg, but averages 19.2 ypc on 18 catches, which leads the conference. Illinois State also has a solid defense, allowing 116.6 ypg on the ground (2nd) and 213 ypg through the air (3rd) giving them the #2 defense in the conference in both total yards allowed and scoring. LB Zackary Mathews tops the list in tackles with 9.4 per game (7th in MVFC) and DE Romeo McKnight is tied for 7th in tackles for loss with 1.1 per game. DB Luther Kirk is tied (with 7 other players) for #1 in the conference with 2 through 5 games. Punter JT Bohlken is still having a good season, averaging 43.5 yards per punt in MVFC games with 14 of his 32 punts dropping within the 20 and overall is 9th best in the FCS.

Northern Iowa: The Panthers are…well, I guess you could say “above average” in their passing game, but a bit “below average” in their run game. They’re not blowing anyone away in either, but they’re not horrible. They put up 245.4 ypg with 9 TDs through the air and 141.8 ypg with 6 TDs on the ground. QB Eli Dunne is 4th in the conference with 245 ypg and 9 TDs and 3 INTs, but he’s not really a running threat…at all…averaging -26 rushing ypg. WRs Briley Moore and freshman Deion McShane are averaging 56 and 40.4 ypg receiving and on the ground, RB Marcus Weymiller is 6th in the conference with 77.4 ypg and 2 TDs. Overall, they’re very good at getting points once they get into the red zone, sitting at #7 in the entire FCS with a .931 average (from what I heard they were perfect from the red zone until last weekend’s game). On the other side of the ball, the Panther defense is 4th in the conference at stopping the run, allowing 139.2 ypg, but are last in their pass defense, giving up 253 ypg. They’re pretty good about keeping teams from scoring though, giving up 26 ppg, third in the MVFC and have kept opposing offenses out of the end zone in 3 of their games. LB Duncan Ferch is tied for #5 in the conference with a 9.6 tackles per game average and has 8 pass breakups and 1 INT to put him at #2 in the conference in defended passes with 9 total through 5 games. LB Rickey Neal Jr. has 3.5 sacks in that same timeframe, which ties him for #2 in the conference for sacks.

My Take: Both teams pretty much have to win the rest of their games to continue their playoff hopes. UNI has been somewhat weak against the run, giving up their most ground yards against NDSU and UNI, both teams who have (or had when they played the game) some of the better RBs in the conference. The last couple of weeks have not been kind to any sort of “transitive analysis”, with UNI beating SDSU two weeks ago and SDSU beating ILSU last week, but on the other hand, ILSU beat WIU a few weeks ago and WIU just beat UNI last week…and in all of those games, the margin was greater than 1 score. UNI gets a little boost for being at home, but I think ISU’s defense is going to make things pretty difficult for UNI’s offense to do much. Because ISU’s offense relies on the run so much, I don’t think the QB issue will be that big of a deal, but Robinson is hard to stop…he put up 145 yards and 3 TDs against the best run defense in the conference (WIU). I could see this easily going either way, but to me, it all adds up to Illinois State probably winning this by a fairly narrow margin, maybe 28-21…also referred to by UNI fans as “Farley-ing it up”.

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Western Illinois at Southern Illinois

The Series: The Leathernecks and Salukis have played 63 times going back to 1933. WIU has the lead in the series, 36-23-4, at one point winning 18 straight (1984-2001) before SIU won 9 straight (2002-2010). The last 4 matchups have been even, with WIU winning in 2015 and 2017, and SIU winning in 2014 and 2016. Last year’s game was a 28-14 victory for WIU on November 18th. The home team has won the last 4 meetings.

WIU’s Record: WIU is 4-4 overall with a 3-2 conference record. They opened the season with a close loss at Montana State, then a loss at FBS Illinois, before heading home and beating Montana by 4. In the MVFC, they beat YSU by 7, lost at ILSU by 17, lost at home against NDSU by 27, then went on the road and beat MSU by 17 and won at home against UNI by 14 last weekend.

SIU’s Record: SIU is 2-6 on the season and 1-4 in the MVFC. They opened with a big win over Murray State, then losses at FBS Ole Miss and a close one at home against non-conference rival Southeast Missouri State. In the conference, they lost to South Dakota, lost by 3 at Youngstown State, got steamrolled at Illinois State, lost by 3 back home against Indiana State, then went on the road and earned their first conference win over Missouri State by 14.

Western Illinois: The Leathernecks have the #3 offense in the MVFC in terms of yardage, heavy on the passing game, which puts up 287.2 ypg, is #1 in the conference. The run game is 9th, however, only moving the ball 115.8 ypg on the ground. QB Sean McGuire leads the conference in passing ypg with 271.6, 12 TDs and 5 INTs (3 of which came while already down against NDSU). WR Isaiah Lesure leads the conference in receiving ypg with 96.6 and 4 TDs while RB Clint Ratkovich comes in at #12 with 56.2 ypg and 2 TDs. As mentioned, the ground game is somewhat lacking, but is led by RB Steve McShane with 58.75 ypg and 4 TDs on the ground. McShane, however, is a threat in many aspects of the game, picking up 36.2 receiving ypg with 2 TDs, and is #2 in the conference on punt returns with 11.7 ypg. In total, McShane leads the MVFC in all-purpose yards, accounting for just under 150 ypg across all aspects. On defense, WIU is only allowing 321.4 ypg (1st) and are stronger against the run (102.6 ypg, 1st) than they are against the pass (218.8 ypg, 4th). They have, however, allowed an average of 27.2 ppg, which puts them right in the middle of the conference in that regard. LB Quentin Moon and DL Khalen Saunders lead the team in tackles with 8.2 and 7.8 per game respectively. Saunders and LB Pete Swenson are the top two in the conference for tackles for loss, and Swenson’s total season average of 2 tackles for loss per game puts him at #2 in the FCS (sacks per game is 1.13 overall, #4 in the FCS). Leatherneck DBs Xavier Rowe, Zach Muniz, and Justin Fitzpatrick are ranked 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the MVFC for passes defended per game including 2 INTs for Fitzpatrick and 1 each for the other two.

Southern Illinois: The Saluki offense is 9th in the conference in both total ypg (387.2) and scoring (22.2 ppg). They do have a fairly strong running attack, putting up 205.6 ypg with 8 TDs, but only 181.6 ypg and 6 TDs on the ground. Their starting QB for most of the season, Sam Straub, was benched before the Indiana State game and #2 QB Matt DeSomer took over. Since then, DeSomer has thrown for 185.5 yards per game with 4 TDs and 1 INT in those two games. He’s also run for 113.5 ypg with 1 TD rushing and was awarded the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week for last week’s performance. D.J. Davis is the top RB for the Salukis, putting up 85.6 ypg (4th in the MVFC) with 3 TDs. WR Raphael Leonard averages 68.4 ypg receiving (9th) and TE Nigel Kilby is used more in short/red zone situations, only averaging 53.33 ypg, but with 4 TD receptions in conference games. On defense, SIU allows 31.6 ppg (8th) and 427.8 ypg (7th), and they seem to do a bit better against the passing game (5th) than they do on the ground (7th). LB Bryce Notree is tied for 7th in the MVFC with 9.4 tackles per game and DE Anthony Knighton is tied for #2 with 6 other players in sacks per game with .7. DB Jeremy Chinn has 2 interceptions in 5 conference games and averages 1 pass defended per game.

My Take: SIU is out of playoff consideration, but WIU is still in it, needing to win their remaining games to have a good chance. So, SIU has nothing to lose in this game and would love to play the spoiler. SIU has improved quite a bit with QB DeSomer at the helm. He’s a running threat, but WIU has done pretty well against running QBs (shutting down MSU’s Huslig and NDSU’s Stick), but RB D.J. Davis is a quality RB that will be tough to stop. The Leatherneck O-line did a really good job last week, but they’ll have their hands full again with the DE Knighton and LB Notree. Overall, this feels like it could be a “trap game” if WIU doesn’t show up like they did against UNI. On the plus side, SIU doesn’t seem to play well at home, with both of their wins coming on the road. I think Coach Elliott will have the Leathernecks ready to play though, and Western will come away with a 32-24 win.

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Missouri State at South Dakota State

The Series: The Bears and Jackrabbits have met up on the gridiron 10 times starting in 2008. SDSU has won 9 of the 10 meetings, with the only MSU win occurring in 2013 at Plaster Stadium. SDSU has won the 4 meetings since then with last year’s game being a 62-30 beat-down in Springfield, MO.

MSU’s Record: Missouri State is 4-4 overall with a 2-3 record against MVFC teams. They lost their opener against FBS Oklahoma State, beat DII Lincoln University, and crushed Northern Arizona. In-conference, they beat ILSU by a blocked FG, lost at USD by a TD and at INSU by a FG. They hosted WIU for Homecoming and got rolled by 17 points, then hosted SIU and got beat by 14.

SDSU’s Record: South Dakota State has a 5-2 record and is 3-2 against conference teams. They started the season with a game at Iowa State, but after one drive, the game was cancelled due to heavy thunderstorms. They then hosted Montana State, beating them by quite a bit, and hosted Arkansas-Pine Bluff, beating them by…well…it’s not GA Tech vs Cumberland kinda numbers, but it’s about as close as you’re going to get in the modern age. In the MVFC, they lost to NDSU by 4 at the Fargodome, took OT to earn a home win over INSU by 3, and beat YSU by 29. They then hit the road dropping a game at UNI by 15 and then winning at ILSU by 10.

Missouri State: The Bears offense leans heavily towards the pass while utilizing the feet of QB Peyton Huslig to get much of the job done on the ground. Huslig averages 258 ypg with 8 TDs and 7 INTs through the air, and 40 ypg with 4 TDs on the ground (he’s their #1 rusher), which in total makes him the conference leader in total offense, accounting for just slightly under 300 ypg. The run game, however, is 8th in the conference, putting up only 134 ypg. WRs Lorenzo Thomas and Tyler Currie both average in the 67-69 ypg range and they have 1 and 3 receiving TDs respectively, and they have two other players that average just under 50 ypg. Overall, MSU is 7th in the conference in both yards and points per game. MSU’s defense is in the bottom 3 of the conference for yards and points allowed, as well as both run and pass defense, so they’ve really had trouble stopping decent offensive teams. LBs Angelo Garbutt and McNeece Egbim are the “bright spots” on the defense both averaging above 10 tackles per game, at #3 and #4 in the conference. 1.2 of tackles from Egbim and DE Matt McClellan are for loss, tying them for #4 in the MVFC.

South Dakota State: Despite being ranked right in the middle of the conference (5th-6th) in total yards per game, rushing ypg, and passing ypg, the Jackrabbits can put up a decent amount of points, sitting at #2 with a 30.8 ppg average. QB Taryn Christion is 5th in the conference, putting up 225 ypg with 10 TDs through the air and 26 ypg with 2 TDs on the ground. He may not put up huge numbers, but he does have the highest efficiency rating in MVFC games and is #4 in the entire FCS. RB Mikey Daniel has had to pick up the slack after RB Isaac Wallace (had been averaging 83 ypg) went down in the YSU game with a career-ending hip injury. Daniel is currently averaging 47 ypg, but had 84 yards and 2 TDs last weekend. WR Cade Johnson is the #5 receiver in the MVFC, catching 77 ypg (16.8 per catch) with 3 TDs. Across all games in the FCS, SDSU is #2 in fumbles lost and has thrown the 16th fewest interceptions, making them 4th in the FCS in turnovers lost and 10th overall in turnover margin. On the other side of the ball, SDSU again “out-kicks their coverage” (not literally), averaging 6th-7th in the conference in rushing, passing, and total ypg, but only giving up 26.2 ppg…4th of the MVFC teams. LB Christian Rozeboom averages 7.6 tackles per game and DT Krockett Krolikowski is tied for #2 in the conference, coming up with 3.5 sacks in 5 games. Punter Brady Hale averages over 42 yards per kick with 14 of his 31 punts dropping within the 20 yard line.

My Take: Missouri State isn’t a bad team, and they’re better than they’ve been in recent history, but SDSU is pretty much better across the board. Assuming the defensive “stalemate” that was much of the UNI game was a fluke, I think SDSU’s offense will probably tear apart MSU’s defense. SIU put up 49 points on them and the Jackrabbits’ offense is better than SIU’s. MSU is ok in the offensive department, but they’re not going to be able to keep up. I think we’ll see something like a 41-21 SDSU win in this game.

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Youngstown State at North Dakota State

The Series: The Penguins and Bison have played 12 times starting back in 1972 with NDSU holding the the series lead 8-4. North Dakota State has won the last 6 matchups and last year’s game was a 27-24 OT victory for the Bison.

YSU’s Record: Youngstown State is 3-5 overall and 2-3 in the conference. They opened with a loss against Butler and a road loss at FBS West Virginia, then back home beating Valparaiso. In the MVFC, they lost at WIU by 7, beat SIU by 3, fell at SDSU by 29, headed back home where they took down USD by 12 and then got crushed by INSU by 26.

NDSU’s Record:

At this point it kinda feels redundant. They haven’t lost and last week they steamrolled USD. They’re 8-0.

Youngstown State: YSU kinda has the opposite situation as SDSU. Rushing, passing, and total ypg are all solidly in the middle of the conference (5th-6th), but scoring is dead last, putting up 21.6 ppg. I’m not quite sure what the QB situation is over there right now, as QB Montgomery VanGorder is averaging 205 ypg with 6 TDs and 6 INTs, but also struggling at times at finding receivers (that don’t play for the other teams). QB Nathan Mays has put in playing time in the last two games, although he hasn’t had much success either. Mays is more of a running QB though, rushing for an average of 52 ypg in the last two games. Really, the primary offensive threat for YSU is RB Tevin McCaster who’s #2 in the conference (#1 of active players) with 111 yards per game and 5 TDs. The Penguin defense is fairly solid against the pass, only giving up 203 ypg (2nd) and are overall giving up 361 ypg (3rd), although, like their offense, scoring is an issue, giving up 31 ppg (7th). LB Armand Dellovade averages 8.4 tackles per game and DT Savon Smith is #3 in the conference in tackles for loss with 7. DB D.J. Smalls is tied for #7 among MVFC players for passes defended with 5 breakups and 1 INT that was taken back for a TD.

North Dakota State: NDSU’s offense is all about the run game…it helps set up everything they do on that side of the ball. Fortunately for the Bison, they’re very good at it, averaging 253 ypg (1st in the MVFC) with 16 TDs. The passing game is last in the conference at 173 ypg with 10 TDs, although with a passing efficiency rating of nearly 13 points higher than the #2 team in the conference, when they need to pass, they do it well. QB Easton Stick is the one doing the majority of the passing, but he’s also run for 50 ypg with 5 TDs…which means that in terms of the number of rushing TDs, he’s tied for #2 in the conference. RB Lance Dunn gets 80 ypg and also has 5 rushing TDs. When NDSU goes to the air, it’s often to WR Darrius Shepherd, who has 96 ypg on 25 catches with 4 TDs, and a 19.1 yards per catch average. Defensively, they are good at stopping the run, allowing only 118 ypg but are actually 8th in the conference against the pass (246 ypg). They have a ton of great defensive players (and a least a couple will likely be playing on Sundays within a few years), but because a lot of them contribute nearly equally well, combined with the good time of possession average that NDSU has, their actual stats aren’t as high as some other teams top players. LB Jabril Cox gets 6.8 tackles per game and has 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 3 pass breakups. LB Dan Marlette has 6.6 tackles per game, 2 pass breakups, and a fumble recovery returned 38 yards for a TD, and S Robbie Grimsley gets 6.2 tackles per game with 1 sack, 1 INT, and 2 pass breakups. DE Greg Menard is tied for #2 in the conference with 3.5 sacks in 5 conference games. CB Jalen Allison and FS James Hendricks have 2 interceptions each. However you want to break it down though NDSU is #1 in the stats that really matter in the grand scheme of things…points per game (39.6) + points allowed (16.6) = 100% win percentage.

My Take: The best offensive weapon YSU has is their RB…NDSU is excellent against the run. YSU is weaker against the run game and NDSU has the best ground game in the conference. The Bison O-Line and D-Line are beasts and have given NDSU a great deal of their success over the last decade. NDSU is on a roll, playing their best football…YSU feels like they’ve given up on the season. Oh, and it’s at the Fargodome, which is never an easy place to play. This one’s gonna get real ugly real fast. I think the Bison win this one easily…like…whenever they want to take their foot off the gas, that’s the margin. Maybe…idk…56-7.

The Jackrabbits bounce back…Bison dominate as usual…Sycamores and Salukis demolish their competition…wait…what?

The Scores

South Dakota State – 38
Illinois State – 28

Northern Iowa – 17
Western Illinois – 37

Indiana State – 43
Youngstown State – 17

North Dakota State – 59
South Dakota – 14

Southern Illinois – 49
Missouri State – 35

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South Dakota State at Illinois State

SDSU got things going right away when, on the 3rd play from scrimmage of the game, QB Taryn Christion hit WR Adam Anderson for a 64-yard TD. Following the usual XP & kickoff, on literally the next play, Illinois State QB Brady Davis one-upped the Jackrabbits with an 81-yard TD pass to R-Freshman WR Andrew Edgar to tie things up at 7 with less than 2 minutes off the clock. At that point, both defenses stepped up and only 3 first downs were allowed in the 7 drives through the rest of the quarter. It was mostly the same in the 2nd until just under 5 minutes left in the half when ISU started a drive back at their 15 and tried a pass out to the side to WR Spencer Schnell. The SDSU defense swarmed him and forced him back ~10 yards before a fumble was forced and recovered by SDSU DT Xavier Ward. One 5-yard run by RB Mikey Daniel later, SDSU had a 14-7 lead. Next drive, first play…ISU fumbles the ball on the snap and SDSU recovers in the red zone. A few plays later, the Jackrabbits scored again on a 5-yard TD pass to WR Jacob Brown. The Redbird offense was stopped on the next drive and SDSU would only need one play from scrimmage to nail an 81-yard TD pass to WR Cade Johnson to open up a 28-7 lead that they’d take into halftime.

Late in the 3rd, ISU would get pushed back and have to punt from their own 1 yard line. The punt was caught at midfield and returned 16 yards giving SDSU great field position with which to conduct a 6 play drive capped off with a 7-yard TD run by RB Mikey Daniel. Early in the 4th, the Redbirds halted the string of 28 unanswered points with an 85-yard drive ending in a 3-yard TD pass from QB Jake Kolbe (had been put in after halftime) to TE Tanner Taula. SDSU got close enough on their next drive for a 48-yard FG from PK Chase Vinatieri to pull ahead 38-14. ISU moved down the field and TE Tylor Petkovich hauled in a 9-yard TD catch. A little later Illinois State used a couple of long passes to pull within 10 points on a 26-yard TD pass to the WR Edgar, but time would run out for the Redbirds, as 38-28 would be the final score.

SDSU QB Taryn Christion threw for 292 yards and 3 TDs with 1 INT, with 131 yards and 1 TD of that going to WR Cade Johnson. The Jackrabbits top rusher was RB Mikey Daniel with 84 yards and 2 TDs. LB Dalton Cox led the team with 9 tackles (5 solo), S Brandon Synder had an INT and 4 tackles, and LB Seven Wilson and DT Xavier Ward each had fumble recoveries. ISU QB Jake Kolbe threw for 183 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT, and ran for 45 yards. RB James Robinson (who had been averaging 130 ypg) was held to only 10 rushing yards on 13 attempts. WR Andrew Edgar had a good day individually, hauling in 9 catches for 202 yards and 2 TDs. LB Zackary Mathews had 7 tackles (4 solo) and DB Willie Edwards had 1 INT and 4 tackles.

South Dakota State moves up to 5-2 overall with a 3-2 conference record and will head back home, hosting Missouri State next weekend. Illinois State falls to 5-3 with a 2-3 conference record and next up is a road trip to Northern Iowa.

FINAL: No. 7/8 South Dakota State 38, No. 9/11 Illinois State 28 … Jackrabbits (5-2 overall, 3-2 @ValleyFootball) return home to face Missouri State on Nov. 3. Kickoff at 2 p.m. at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium. #LastPlay #GoJacks pic.twitter.com/s1nvAPHqU5

— SDSU Football (@GoJacksFB) October 27, 2018

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Northern Iowa at Western Illinois

Early in the first, the Panthers had an opportunity to score, getting into the red zone, but missing on a 24-yard FG. They got a second chance when, two plays later, a fumble by WIU RB Steve McShane was recovered by UNI DB Korby Sander at the WIU 31. UNI would eventually get down to the 15, but would have to settle for a 32-yard FG. On the next drive, a 30-yard pass to RB Clint Ratkovich would get WIU to the UNI 1 yard line at the end of the quarter and on the first play of the 2nd, RB Max Norris ran it the final yard for a TD to take a 7-3 lead. UNI’s next drive took 6 plays and 75 yards finishing with an 18-yard pass from QB Eli Dunne to RB Marcus Weymiller. Two plays into the next drive, the Leathernecks would respond with a long pass to WR Isaiah Lesure that he took the rest of the way into the end zone in a play that covered 69 yards and gave WIU a 14-10 lead. Later in the quarter, UNI started a drive from their own 9, but on a sack by WIU LB Pete Swenson, the ball popped out and was recovered in the end zone by UNI for a safety and WIU was up by 6. They’d hold that lead to the end of the half.

A few minutes into the second half, the Panthers drove down the field, eventually reaching the WIU 6, but on a sack by LB Riggs Baxter, the QB Dunne fumbled and it was recovered by WIU. They weren’t able to do anything with that one, but on the next drive, a UNI pass was intercepted by DB Xavier Rowe and returned to the WIU 43. That one the Leathernecks were able to convert into points on a 1-yard run by the RB Norris to pull ahead 23-10. Early in the 4th, a 7-yard TD pass to the WIU WR Lesure put them up by 20. On the next drive, UNI went for it on 4th and 4 but were stopped after 1, giving the ball to the Leathernecks at the UNI 32. A bunch of short runs later including a 1-yard run by the WIU RB McShane and the Leathernecks were up 37-10 with under 6 minutes left in the game. UNI was able to put together a 12-play 75-yard drive capped off with a 1-yard run by the RB Weymiller to get back within 20, but after using up over 4 minutes, WIU was able to run the ball a couple more times to end the game and come away with the 37-17 victory.

UNI QB Eli Dunne threw for 218 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs, mostly to WR Nick Fossey who had 69 yards on 7 catches. RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 96 yards and 1 TD and caught 3 passes for 21 yards and 1 TD. The UNI site lists Christian Jegen as the top tackler in the game with 13 total (8 solo), but it also says he’s a RB who was formerly a WR…so…¯\_(ツ)_/¯ LB Kendrick Suntken also had 13 tackles (6 solo) and 1 forced fumble recovered by DB Korby Sander, who also had 6 tackles. WIU QB Sean McGuire had 300 yards passing with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. WR Isaiah Lesure had a great game, grabbing 7 catches for 164 yards and 2 TDs. RBs Steve McShane and Max Norris picked up 44 and 41 yards and 1 and 2 TDs respectively. DB Justin Fitzpatrick led the team with 11 tackles (9 solo). DBs Xavier Rowe and Andre Whitley each had interceptions and LB Pete Swenson stays at the top of the conference sacks list with 2 in this game as well as 1 forced fumble and a QB hurry.

Northern Iowa drops to 4-4 with a 3-2 MVFC record. Next weekend they’ll host Illinois State at the UNIDome for Family Weekend. Western Illinois equals UNI’s record, 4-4 overall and 3-2 in the conference and will head down to “Little Egypt” to take on the SIU Salukis.

In a 37-17 decision over No. 17/23 Northern Iowa, Western recorded its third consecutive season with at least two victories over a ‘Top 25’ team.#TRADITIONofTOUGH pic.twitter.com/rEMQ744FxM

— Western Illinois Football (@WIUfootball) October 27, 2018

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Indiana State at Youngstown State

Despite a punt pinning them at their own 3 yard line, YSU was able to drive 97 yards on their first possession and take a 25-yard pass from QB Montgomery VanGorder to WR Jermiah Braswell into the end zone for the early Penguin lead. The Sycamores responded with a 41-yard FG on their next drive to make it 7-3. In the second quarter, YSU used a short field, starting right about at midfield, to get close enough for a 33-yard FG from freshman PK Grant Gonya, but ISU again responded…again with a FG…this time from 30 yards out, and the score was 10-6 for YSU. Later in the quarter, ISU used a 43-yard pass to freshman WR Dakota Caton to move downfield and scored on a 22-yard pass to R-Fr. WR Dante Hendrix to take their first lead. Two plays later, a YSU completed pass was fumbled and recovered by ISU, allowing PK Jerry Nunez to hit a 45-yard FG, putting the score at 16-10 at the end of the half.

The 3rd quarter was fairly even until about 9 minutes in when ISU QB Ryan Boyle threw a 22-yard TD pass to the WR Hendrix to put the Sycamores up by 13. Late in the quarter, however, YSU brought it back within one score after a 58-yard run by RB Tevin McCaster got them close and 2 more yards from McCaster on the next run into the end zone. At this point, however, the wheels fell off of the Penguin “train”. The first drive into the 4th quarter resulted in a 15-yard TD pass to TE Zach Larkin and the “trees” were up by 13. YSU got down the field into the red zone, but turned the ball over on downs when QB Nathan Mays (who was put in late in the 3rd) was sacked on a 4th and 4. Indiana State took 4 plays to move 82 yards the other way, ending in a 23-yard run by RB Titus McCoy (XP attempt failed) to put ISU up 36-17. YSU went 3-and-out, and then ISU missed a 44-yard FG, but then a YSU fumble was picked up by ISU LB Jonas Griffith and taken 80 yards back across the field for another TD to make the final score 43-17 Indiana State.

ISU QB Ryan Boyle had 325 yards passing with 3 TDs and ran for 68 yards and was awarded the conference’s Newcomer of the Week award. WR Dante Hendrix had 7 catches for 186 yards and 2 TDs. LB Jonas Griffith led the team with 14 tackles (11 solo), 1 sack, 1 pass breakup, and the 80 yard fumble recovery TD and picked up a MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award. DB Jamal Jones had 5 tackles to go along with another fumble recovery. PK Jerry Nunez went 3 for 4 on FGs and 4 for 4 on XP attempts to earn him the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award. YSU QB Montgomery VanGorder threw for 125 yards with 1 TD and ran for 40 yards. RB Tevin McCaster had 165 yards on the ground with 1 TD and WR Jermiah Braswell led the team with 93 yards on 6 catches with 1 TD. CB Devanere Crenshaw led the Penguins with 11 tackles (7 solo), and DT Savon Smith had 3 total tackles, 1.5 of which were sacks.

Indiana State now sits at 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the MVFC and will host South Dakota next weekend. Youngstown State is now 3-5 and 2-3 in the conference and will head to the far north to take on North Dakota State at the Fargodome.

Sycamores make the trip to Youngstown and walk away winners over the Penguins for their second-straight road win! #ALLIN #MarchOn pic.twitter.com/QjSaDVM7vB

— Indiana State Football (@IndStFB) October 27, 2018

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North Dakota State at South Dakota

A bit over 6 minutes into the game, the Bison struck first on a 15-yard TD pass to TE Ben Ellefson. Their next drive, RB Lance Dunn got them close on a 75-yard run and QB Easton Stick ran it the last few yards into the end zone. LB Jabril Cox intercepted a pass by USD QB Austin Simmons a little bit later giving NDSU short field position and allowing QB Stick to throw a 2-yard TD pass to FB Brock Robbins. At this point, NDSU was up 21-0 and it would only get worse for the Coyotes from there. In the 2nd quarter, RB Ty Brooks ran 35-yards for a TD to go ahead 28-0. USD finally got their first points on a 3-yard TD run by RB Canaan Brooks, but NDSU responded with their own TD drive ending in a 6-yard pass to TE Ellefson to go ahead 35-7 at halftime.

In the 2nd half, a turnover on downs for USD gave NDSU the ball backed up to their own 2 yard line. It was apparently no problem for the Bison, because 10 plays later, QB Easton Stick was running 47 yards to the end zone for a TD. USD was able to respond two plays later with their own long QB run for a TD…62 yards by QB Simmons to make the score 42-14. In the 4th, NDSU hit a 46-yard FG and USD on their next play turned the ball over, setting up a run by the next NDSU QB Trey Lance that went 23 yards for a TD to put NDSU up 38 points. Later in the quarter, NDSU RB Adam Cofield had a 15-yard TD run which made the score 59-14 all the way to the end of the game.

NDSU QB Easton Stick “only” had 176 yards passing, but 3 TDs with 0 INTs and ran for 79 yards and 2 TDs. RB Lance Dunn had 114 rushing yards, and three other players had rushing TDs for the Bison. WR Darrius Shepherd led the team with 75 yards receiving while TE Ben Ellefson only had 2 catches for 21 yards, but both were TDs. LB Dan Marlette led the team with 10 tackles (6 solo), while LB Jabril Cox had 9 tackles (7 solo), 1 sack, and 1 INT returned 34 yards. P Garret Wegner had 2 punts averaging 50.2 yards per punt and both landed inside the 20. USD QB Austin Simmons threw for 152 yards and 1 INT and ran for 115 yards and 1 TD. WR Shamar Jackson led the Coyotes with 64 receiving yards on 5 catches. LB Jack Cochrane topped the list with 13 tackles (10 solo) and DB Elijah Reed had 10 (9 solo) tackles. Punter Brady Schutt had a 44.5 yards per punt average on 6 punts with a long of 53.

North Dakota State stays perfect on the season, 8-0 overall, 5-0 in the MVFC and host Youngstown State next weekend for their Harvest Bowl game. South Dakota falls to 3-5 overall with a 2-3 conference record. They’ll hit the road taking on Indiana State next weekend in Terre Haute.

TOUCHDOWN, Bison!

Adam Cofield scores his second TD of the year from 15 yards out and the Bison lead South Dakota 59-14. pic.twitter.com/klJWFagkMv

— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) October 27, 2018

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Southern Illinois at Missouri State

It took a little while for the offenses to get moving in the SIU/MSU game, but with about 5 minutes left in the first quarter, MSU QB Peyton Huslig finished off an 81-yard drive with a 6-yard TD run to put the Bears up early. In the first drive of the second quarter, SIU moved 75 yards down the field, capping the drive off with an 18 yard TD run by RB D.J. Davis, tying things up at 7. Later, a short SIU punt gave MSU the ball at their own 45 and they were able to go 55-yards in 9 plays for a 4-yard TD pass to TE Jordan Murray to take a 14-7 lead. Just a few plays later though, SIU responded with a 35-yard TD pass to TE Nigel Kilby to tie things up again. MSU wasn’t done for the half though, as QB Peyton Huslig used long gains on passes to WRs Lorenzo Thomas and Tyler Currie before Currie caught a pass to cover the last 3 yards into the end zone. Cue SIU QB Matt DeSomer again, driving 75 yards down the field and using up most of the final 2 minutes of the half on a drive ending with a 4-yard TD pass to TE Kilby to again tie things up…this time 21-all to end the half.

The 3rd quarter was all Salukis as QB Matt DeSomer hit WR Landon Lenoir (younger brother of former WIU standout WR Lance Lenoir) on a 30-yard TD pass, RB D.J. Davis running 14 yards into the end zone on their next drive, and an interception returned for a TD by Safety Michael Elbert putting SIU up 42-21. All this while holding MSU scoreless and not even allowing them further along than their own 38 yard line until the very end of the quarter, when MSU was finally able to put together a drive that ended early in the 4th with a 24-yard TD pass to WR Curry, making the score 42-28. MSU next drive was 1 play long that was an interception by SIU LB Bryce Notree at the SIU 13. Two plays later, SIU was back in the end zone on a 5-yard run by RB Jonathan Mixon. Nearing the end of the game, the Bears were able to score again on a 3-yard TD catch by TE Mauricio Chio. It was too little, too late, however, as Southern Illinois would come away with the 49-35 victory.

SIU QB Matt DeSomer had 206 yards and 3 TDs passing and 92 yards rushing and earned the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week award. RB D.J. Davis ran for 96 yards with 2 TDs and WR Raphael Leonard caught 8 passes for 103 yards. LB Luke Giegling led the team with 9 tackles (5 solo) while LB Bryce Notree and S Michael Elbert each had interceptions, with Elbert’s going 55 yards for a TD. MSU QB Peyton Huslig threw for 404 yards with 4 TDs and ran for 15 yards and 1 TD, which would have been great if not for 2 interceptions as well. WR Lorenzo Thomas caught 8 passes for 173 yards and WR Tyler Currie had 84 yards and 2 TDs on 5 catches. LB Angelo Garbutt finished with 12 tackles (5 solo) and LB McNeece Egbim had 8 tackles (5 solo), 2.5 of which were for a loss.

Southern Illinois picks up their second win of the season and are 2-6 with a 1-4 conference record and head back home next week, hosting Western Illinois. Missouri State drops to an even 4-4 and 2-3 in the MVFC and will head up to South Dakota State next weekend.

FINAL | Southern Illinois 49, Missouri State 35

Go Southern Go! The #Salukis are back home next Saturday at 1pm. #RunWithUs pic.twitter.com/IAQCqmWnuR

— Saluki Football (@SIU_Football) October 27, 2018

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MVFC Standings

Team, Overall (MVFC) – last three games
North Dakota State, 8-0 (5-0) – YSU, @MSU, SIU
South Dakota State, 5-2 (3-2) – MSU, @SIU, USD
Western Illinois, 4-4 (3-2) – @SIU, @USD, INSU
Northern Iowa, 4-4 (3-2) – ILSU, @YSU, MSU
Illinois State, 5-3 (2-3) – @UNI, @INSU, YSU
Missouri State, 4-4 (2-3) – @SDSU, NDSU, @UNI
Indiana State, 4-4 (2-3) – USD, ILSU, @WIU
South Dakota, 3-5 (2-3) – @INSU, WIU, @SDSU
Youngstown State, 3-5 (2-3) – @NDSU, UNI, @ILSU
Southern Illinois, 2-6 (1-4) – WIU, SDSU, @NDSU

As with last week, “Professor Chaos” over at AnyGivenSaturday.com has written an excellent breakdown of each team’s playoff chances and what they need to do…you can check it out here.
The short version is essentially: NDSU is already in, SDSU needs to win 2 of their last 3, ILSU, WIU, UNI, INSU, and MSU all need to win all 3 of their remaining games (although ILSU has a little bit more leeway since they’d be at 8 total wins…that includes a NAIA game though), and USD, YSU and SIU are all effectively out of playoff consideration.

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How’d I Do?

SDSU @ ILSU – I thought ILSU 24-21. It was SDSU 38-28. Missed on that one…didn’t account for the multitude of early turnovers.

INSU @ YSU – I thought YSU 27-17. It was INSU 43-17. Maybe I should just stop picking..this is nuts.

UNI @ WIU – I thought WIU 26-24. It was WIU 37-17. Ok…finally got one right. I was worried about some of the aspects of the game, but WIU had a pretty solid all-around effort.

NDSU @ USD – I thought NDSU 40-14. It was NDSU 59-14. I mean…really, when I put 40-14 it was nearly a “pick your score” type of scenario and I figured they’d let off the gas when they hit around 40 or so. Guess they didn’t, but I think that’s still a win for me.

SIU @ MSU – I thought MSU 35-28. It was SIU 49-35. Wait…everyone told me SIU sucked. I don’t like this…we (my Leathernecks) have to play them next week.

Previously I was 9-6 in my picks. Another bad 2-3 week, and I’m 11-9 now. I didn’t have much “game prediction” cred to begin with…but whatever was there is pretty much gone now. Another crazy week for upsets.

Next week’s games are in November…the final month of the regular season before we head into the playoffs. Up next weekend on November 3rd are: South Dakota at Indiana State, Illinois State at Northern Iowa, Western Illinois at Southern Illinois, Missouri State at South Dakota State, and Youngstown State at North Dakota State. All except for YSU@NDSU (both have essentially clinched their postseason situations) should have a big impact on who has a chance at the playoffs, so it should be an exciting week.

I’m going to try changing things up just a little bit, hopefully making some of my content a little easier to read. Most of you probably won’t notice a huge difference, but hopefully makes a few little things better. I’m also going to switch over to conference-only numbers from now on. Obviously strength of schedule makes a difference (if a team has all the “tough” matchups early vs late in the season, for example), but now that everyone has played 4 MVFC games, I feel that it’s a better indication of how good a team is against roughly “equivalent” teams. It’ll also weed out some of the “inflated” stats from some of the early OOC games (looking at you, Jackrabbits), and give a better idea of where teams are at this point in the season.

All times are listed as Central time zone and ranking numbers based on the AGS Poll. Here’s the full list along with starting times and places you can find them on TV/streaming video:

Saturday, October 27th
12:00 PM – South Dakota State (4-2, 2-2 MVFC) at Illinois State (5-2, 2-2 MVFC), ESPN3
1:00 PM – Indiana State (3-4, 1-3 MVFC) at Youngstown State (3-4, 2-2 MVFC), ESPN+
1:00 PM – Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1 MVFC) at Western Illinois (3-4, 2-2 MVFC), ESPN+
2:00 PM – North Dakota State (7-0, 4-0 MVFC) at South Dakota (3-4, 2-2 MVFC), ESPN+
2:00 PM – Southern Illinois (1-6, 0-4 MVFC) at Missouri State (4-3, 2-2 MVFC), ESPN+

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South Dakota State at Illinois State

The Series: SDSU and ILSU have played 8 times, with the overall series tied 4-4. Last year’s matchup was a win for the Jackrabbits, 27-24 in OT at Brookings.

SDSU’s Record: 4-2 overall, 2-2 in the MVFC. They had their first game against Iowa State cancelled due to weather, beat Montana State then destroyed Arkansas Pine-Bluff. In-conference, they lost a close one at NDSU, beat INSU in a high-scoring OT battle, beat down YSU and then lost to UNI in a game that was really much closer than the 15-point margin would indicate.

ILSU’s Record: 5-2 overall, 2-2 in the MVFC. Opened with a win over NAIA St. Xavier (IL), then beat rival Eastern Illinois and won by a good margin over FBS Colorado State. In-conference, the lost a close one at MSU, beat WIU and clobbered SIU back home, then lost at NDSU last weekend.

South Dakota State: The Jackrabbits offense is good at not allowing QB Taryn Christion to get sacked through a combination of a solid offensive line and Christion’s mobility. They’ve been roughly middle-of-the-pack offensively and last week, after losing RB Isaac Wallace (had been averaging just over 82 ypg with 4 TDs) with a season (maybe career) ending hip injury, they weren’t able to find the end zone against a solid UNI defense. WRs Cade Johnson and Adam Anderson are 6th (63.8 ypg w/ 2 TDs) and 8th (60 ypg and 2 TDs) in the MVFC in receiving yards. Special teams is a strong suit for the Jackrabbits, with PK Chase Vinatieri hitting 8 of 11 FGs for the season, only missing 2 kicks from 48 yards and 1 from 49 (and making a 57 and a 47 last week), and Punter Brady Hale having a good year, averaging 42.2 yards per on 20 punts. With the coverage unit only allowing 12 total yards on punt returns, SDSU is #1 in the conference with a 41.6 yards per punt net average. Kickoff coverage is also solid, which helps SDSU do well in the “field position” battle. On defense, the Jackrabbits again mostly fall in the middle of the conference, allowing an average of 25.8 ppg and 407 ypg. They’re 6th in the MVFC in the run defense and 5th in pass defense. DT Krockett Krolikowski and DE Ryan Earith are tied (along with NDSU’s Greg Menard) for 6th in the MVFC in sacks with 2.5 in the 4 MVFC games. As a team, they are fairly well-disciplined, averaging only 30.5 penalty yards per game (best in the MVFC).

Illinois State: Illinois State has one of the better offenses in the conference, putting up just under 30 ppg (3rd in MVFC) and definitely leans more towards the run game with RB James Robinson averaging 132.3 ypg with 5 TDs (2nd in MVFC) and RB Markel Smith at 67.3 ypg with 1 TD. WR Spencer Schnell is #4 in the conference with 75.5 ypg and has 4 receiving TDs, but overall, the passing game isn’t relied on much, only averaging 174.5 ypg. On defense, the Redbirds are in the top 3 in the conference in most categories, allowing only 17.8 ppg and 314.5 ypg. They’re third in the MVFC against both the pass and the run, so it’s a fairly balanced effort. LB Zackary Mathews is tied for 8th in the conference with 10 tackles per game and DB Luther Kirk has 2 INTs with 1 returned for TD in 4 games. Punter JT Bohlken averages 45 yards per punt in MVFC games, which leads the conference, although the Redbirds have struggled in the FG department, going 2 for 5 in the MVFC (and 5 for 10 overall).

My Take: At the start of the week, I was thinking that SDSU might be favored by a bit, although after really processing how they played against UNI last weekend, I’m not so sure. It seems like a “which team will show up” scenario…played well against NDSU and YSU, but had issues with INSU and UNI. ILSU was kinda the same way…played great against some teams, but struggled with MSU and WIU (was a much closer game than the score would indicate). I think the two teams are pretty evenly matched, but it’s Family Weekend for the Redbirds and Hancock Stadium should be sold out, so I have to give the edge to the home team here. I think Illinois State wins this one by a FG, 24-21.

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Indiana State at Youngstown State

The Series: INSU and YSU have played 28 times going back to 1988, with the Penguins holding a 23-5 series lead. Last year’s matchup was a 66-24 Youngstown State win in Terre Haute, IN.

INSU’s Record: Indiana State is 3-4 on the season, with wins over Eastern Illinois and DII Quincy, and a loss to FBS Louisville. In the MVFC, they’re 1-3, getting shut out against UNI, losing in OT at SDSU, dropping their Homecoming game by 3 to MSU, but then taking down SIU by 3 at the Saluki’s Homecoming.

YSU’s Record: Youngstown State is 3-4 this season, which opened with a loss against non-scholarship Butler and another at FBS West Virginia, then a win over Valparaiso. In the MVFC, they’re 2-2 (like more than half the conference currently) with a loss at WIU, win over SIU back home, a big defeat at SDSU and then a win over USD at the “Ice Castle”.

Indiana State: So, this one is going to be a bit tricky to sort out. If I was writing this a few days ago, I would have said that INSU isn’t really an offensive powerhouse, but they do have the most productive rushing offense in the MVFC, with RB Ja’Quan Keys leading the conference in rushing yards (133/game) and rushing TDs (7), and being in the top 3 nationally in both categories. That was…until word came on Tuesday that Keys had suffered a season and career ending injury in their game last week against SIU. Obviously this is absolutely horrible for the young man, who will have to miss the final 4 games of his senior season, but it’s also devastating to a Sycamore offense that pretty much relied on Keys for over half of their ground yards. The next best runner on the INSU offense is QB Ryan Boyle, who gets just over 68 ypg with 2 rushing TDs. Boyle also puts up 166.3 ypg with 2 TDs through the air and 1 INT, which is near the bottom of the conference rankings for the “regular” QBs (excluding things like trick plays where a punter or a WR might act as a QB for a play). On defense, INSU is last in the conference in points allowed (34.3/game) and rushing yards allowed (258.8/game), but is actually halfway decent with their pass defense, only allowing ~195 ypg through the air. LBs Jonas Griffith and Katrell Moss and DB Jamal Jones are #1, 2, and 4 in the conference for tackles, averaging 13.3, 12.3, and 10.8 tackles per game respectively, with Jones leading the conference with 2 fumbles recovered in 4 conference games. Six different INSU players have forced fumbles in those games. The Sycamores are also pretty good at kickoffs and punting, averaging 42.8 and 40.5 net yards per kick/punt, which is #2 and #4 in the MVFC.

Youngstown State: The Penguins haven’t really been blowing anyone away either, although they used some solid defense and a turnover to get up early on USD and ride that to a win. They are similar to INSU in that the most productive member of their offense is a very good RB. In this case. Tevin McCaster is just under 98 ypg (3rd) with 4 TDs in MVFC games. QB Montgomery VanGorder is 4th in the conference with 224.8 ypg and 5 passing TDs, while running for 26.5 ypg and 1 TD. What this adds up to is an offense that only averages ~384 ypg and 22.8 ppg in the conference, in the bottom 3 for both categories. On the other side of the ball, the Penguins are really good against the pass generally. They gave up 324 yards in the air against WIU (a really good passing team), but held SIU, SDSU, and USD to 341 yards combined (and none of the 3 over 158 yards. Otherwise, they’re fairly “middle-of-the-pack” for their ground defense and scoring defense. LB Armand Dellovade is the top tackler on the team averaging 8.3 per game in MVFC contests (12th in the MVFC)  and DT Savon Smith is tied for 3rd in the conference in tackles for loss, averaging 1.38 per game. They’ve struggled with field goals this year, with kicker Zak Kennedy only 4 for 8 in the conference (and 5 for 12) overall.

My Take: Like the SDSU/ILSU game, at the start of this week, I thought this would be a close game. Now that the unfortunate news about Ja’Quan Keys has come out, I don’t see this one going the Sycamores way. INSU is last in rushing defense and YSU has a really good RB who is hard to get down. I think YSU wins this one by about 10 points, maybe 27-17.

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Northern Iowa at Western Illinois

The Series: UNI and WIU have played 46 times starting in 1967. In that span, the Panthers have the series lead, 31-15. Last year’s matchup was a 38-29 win for the Leathernecks in the UNIDome, although this was another case of the score not telling the full story (WIU was down by 4 until the final 6 seconds of the game).

UNI’s Record: Northern Iowa is 4-3 overall and started off the season with a 26-23 loss at Montana and a loss at FBS Iowa, then went home to shut out Hampton 44-0. In the MVFC they’re 3-1 with a shutout win at INSU, loss at home to NDSU, a big win at USD, and then a huge defensive performance in a Homecoming win over SDSU last weekend.

WIU’s Record: WIU is 3-4 so far. While UNI was in Missoula the first weekend, WIU was in Bozeman, also getting handed a 26-23 loss by a Montana FCS school…in this case, Montana State. The Leathernecks then took on FBS Illinois and dropped that one, but then welcomed Montana to Macomb and won that one. In the MVFC, WIU is another of the 2-2 teams, beating YSU, losing at ILSU, losing to NDSU back home, and then heading down to MSU and coming away with a solid victory.

Northern Iowa: UNI’s run defense is solid at #4 giving up 148.5 yards per game on the ground.. They’re 3rd in the conference in scoring defense and they’ve kept three teams from reaching the end zone at all this season (including two MVFC teams that have both put up big numbers against other teams). The defense is a little weaker against the pass (7th in MVFC). LB Chris Kolarevic is #3 in conference games in tackles with 11.3 per game and LB Rickey Neal Jr. is sitting at #2 in sacks, averaging .88 per game in the 4 MVFC games. LB Duncan Ferch holds the #2 spot for passes defended with 2.25/game and DB Xavior Williams helps them do well in the turnover battle with 2 in the last 4 games, 1 of which was returned for a TD (and does a solid job at returning kicks). On offense, Eli Dunne averages 252.3 yards per game with 8 TDs and only 1 INT and leads the conference in passing efficiency. The Panther offense is #2 in the conference in both points (32.5) and yards (407.8) per game with WRs Briley Moore (64.5 ypg) and Deion McShane (48.8 ypg) as the primary receivers in the aerial attack. On the ground, RBs Trevor Allen (76 ypg w/ 3 TDs) and Marcus Weymiller (72.8 ypg w/ 1 TD) both rank in the top 10 of the conference for yardage. PK Austin Errthum is 9 for 11 on the season for FGs with a long of 46 (at Indiana State) and is 6 of 7 in conference games.

Western Illinois: WIU’s defense is actually pretty similar to UNI’s, although ranked a little better in the conference. They have the #2 run defense allowing 106.5 ypg and the #6 pass defense allowing 219 ypg. LB Pete Swenson and DL Khalen Saunders lead the conference in tackles for loss with 2.63 and 1.63 per game respectively, with Swenson the only player in the conference averaging above 1 sack per game (1.25) in MVFC games. Three Leatherneck DBs are in the conference top 10 for passes defended per game, with Justin Fitzpatrick tied for 3rd, and Zach Muniz and Xavier Rowe tied with each other for 5th. Fitzpatrick also has 2 INTs in the last 4 games. QB Sean McGuire leads the Leatherneck offense, throwing for 264.5 ypg with 10 TDs and 5 INTs (3 against NDSU). WIU’s offense has been very 1-dimensional for much of the season, ranking #2 in the passing game, but 9th on the ground, averaging only 119.3 ypg, although they finally put together a solid run game last week against MSU, gaining more yards on the ground than they had in the previous 4 games combined (MSU’s defense isn’t all that great against the run though). WR Isaiah Lesure has caught 2 TDs and 79.8 ypg this season, and WR John Brunner has 54.3 ypg. The ground game, that only recently got moving, is headlined by RB Steve McShane with 76 ypg (despite being held to 9 against NDSU and 18 against ILSU) and has 2 rushing TDs. McShane is also a receiving threat, catching 11 passes for just under 39 yards and 2 TDs in MVFC matchups…and he’s #4 in the conference in kick returns and #2 in the conference in punt returns. WIU has struggled with kickoff coverage, averaging a net gain of 33.3 yards per, which is last in the conference, and allowing MSU a long kickoff return for a TD last weekend.

My Take: These two teams have a fairly long history, and are also located fairly close to one another. They often compete for the same recruits in many areas and have had some exciting/heartbreaking finishes between them. UNI has last week’s MVFC defensive player of the week (Ferch) and WIU has last week’s MVFC offensive player of the week (McShane). Something else interesting is that both offenses feature an explosive member of the McShane family, with Steve (5th oldest out of 10 kids) a Senior RB starting for WIU and Deion (7th) a Freshman WR starting for UNI. Northern Iowa is generally favored by a bit in this game, but it’s close enough that it could easily go either way. I think WIU’s run game will do well, not like last week vs MSU, but better than they did earlier in the season. McGuire can probably do well against the pass defense, but I think UNI will also put up some yards through the air. It’ll probably come down to whomever can limit turnovers the most. I’m a Leatherneck fan, so I feel like I’ve gotta go with my team in this one, but I think it’ll be close and it’ll be a battle. UNI is a very good team but WIU is pretty much to the point where they have to win out to make the playoffs. I think this will give them the extra boost they need to come away with a 2-point win…26-24.

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North Dakota State at South Dakota

The Series: NDSU and USD have played each other 82 times going back to 1903. NDSU holds the series lead, 54-26-2 and in the last 23 matchups (back to 1988) have only lost twice (2002 and 2015). Last year’s matchup was a 49-14 NDSU win in Fargo.

NDSU’s Record: The Bison are 7-0 overall, 4-0 in the conference. They started the season by steamrolling Cal Poly, North Alabama, and Delaware (all in Fargo). In MVFC play, they beat SDSU in a close one, pulled away in the 4th quarter to beat UNI on the road, won their first outdoor game at WIU, then headed back home and beat a good ILSU team by two TDs.

USD’s Record: The Coyotes are 3-4 with a 2-2 conference record. They lost a close game at FBS K-State to start the season, then beat Northern Colorado at home, and wrapped up non-conference games with a loss at Weber State. In the MVFC, they won at SIU and home against MSU, then lost at home against UNI and somewhat unexpectedly dropped their game at YSU last weekend.

North Dakota State: NDSU has been THE top team in the FCS for the majority of the last decade. They are tied for #1 in run defense (yards per game) with 106.5, but have only allowed 3 TDs on the ground (the other team, WIU, has allowed 7). The Bison pass defense has been a bit of a weak spot, allowing the most passing yards of any MVFC team (264.3 per game). The NDSU defense doesn’t really have 1 or 2 guys who are far-and-away the team leader(s) in tackles, but they have a bunch of guys who are all very good. DE Greg Menard and LB Jabril Cox are in the top 10 in the conference for sacks with .63 and .5 per game respectively. CB Jalen Allison is tied for 7th with 1.25 passes defended per game with FS James Hendricks right behind and 1 per game, and each player has 2 INTs in MVFC games. On offense, NDSU is technically ranked at #2 for the ground game, although with the injury to INSU’s RB, they’re effectively #1 now and are currently averaging 220.5 ypg. The passing game is second-to-last with 172.8 ypg, but they haven’t really needed to rely on the pass for much of the season (only 77 attempts…only one of two teams with fewer than 100 pass attempts), and when QB Easton Stick does pass, he’s very efficient, with a 154.7 rating. Stick has thrown for 7 TDs in MVFC games this season with 2 INTs and also runs for 42.5 ypg with 3 rushing TDs. WR Darrius Shepherd is the primary receiver for the Bison with just over 100 yards and 4 TDs on 22 catches and also leads the conference in punt returns, averaging 19.9 yards per return. On the ground, RBs Bruce Anderson (86 ypg) and Lance Dunn (71.3 ypg w/ 5 TDs) are getting the job done. There are plenty of Bison fans who will complain about the issues with the passing game both on offense and defense…sometimes some special teams issues…etc, but the fact is, in MVFC games they currently sit at #1 in both scoring offense and defense, are undefeated this season, are the defending national champions, and are the unanimous #1 team in every major poll/rating system.

South Dakota: South Dakota’s offense is heavily geared towards the passing game. They are #1 in the conference for that, with QB Austin Simmons averaging 288.3 ypg and has 6 passing TDs with 3 INTs, but are last in the conference with their rushing offense, averaging 103.3 ypg on the ground. RB Ben Klett is the top guy there, but with just under 50 yards per game and 3 TDs, is 14th in the conference. WR Dakarai Allen gets the majority of the yardage, racking up 112.8 yards per game on 24 catches with 2 TDs. Allen is also #1 in the conference (for anyone with more than 4 catches) in yards per catch, at 18.8. The UDS defense is in the lower half of the conference for most rankings: 7th for run defense, 8th for passing defense, and 9th for scoring defense. They do have a few solid players though, with DB Andrew Gray tied for 4th in the conference with 10.8 tackles per game and twin brother LB Alex just a bit down the list at 7.5 per game. Andrew is also tied for 3rd for passes defended with 1.75 per game and has 2 INTs and 2 forced fumbles against MVFC teams. DL Darin Greenfield is 5th in tackles for loss with 1.25 per game, and DB Mark Collins Jr. leads the conference with 2.5 passes defended per game.

My Take: I’m not going to say it’s impossible for USD to win this game, although it seems highly unlikely considering how the Coyotes played against YSU last weekend. The best hope that USD has for a victory is if they can get their passing game really moving well. I think we’ll probably see USD stay close early in the game, but NDSU will pull away in the second half and it won’t really be close by the end. I’m thinking we’ll probably see around a 40-14 NDSU win in this game.

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Southern Illinois at Missouri State

The Series: SIU and MSU have played 39 times starting in 1965. The Bears have a 20-19 series lead and have won the last two matchups. Last year was a 36-28 MSU win in Carbondale.

SIU’s Record: The Salukis are 1-6 overall with a 0-4 MVFC record. Their lone win of the season was their opener at Murray State. They lost a high-scoring (on both sides) game at FBS Ole Miss and then a close one back home against non-conference rival Southeast Missouri State. In the MVFC, they lost to USD, at YSU, at ILSU, and their Homecoming game against INSU. In the USD, YSU, and INSU games though, the total margin of victory for all three teams over SIU was 13, so all but one of their conference games (plus one of the OOC games) have been 1-score games.

MSU’s Record: The Bears are 4-3 and are 2-2 in the conference. They lost their opener at FBS Oklahoma state, then beat DII Lincoln University before destroying then-20th ranked Northern Arizona by 32 points. They opened conference season with a surprising win over then-#9 ILSU, but have since kinda settled back into the MSU team we’ve been familiar with, losing at USD, beating INSU by 3, then losing by 17 to WIU at Homecoming.

Southern Illinois: SIU’s offense is last in the MVFC in scoring (15.5 ppg) and yardage (366.5 ypg). The run game isn’t too bad for the Salukis, putting up 191 ypg but they’re only getting 175.5 through the air, and it looks like they’re just not finding a way into the end zone. QB Matt DeSomer has taken over the starting spot from Sam Straub (who was the primary QB for most of the season up until last weekend). DeSomer has been the starting QB in two games so far, averaging 135 passing yards and 117.5 rushing yards per game. He’s thrown for 1 TD, 1 INT, and run for 1 TD. WR Raphael Leonard is the top receiver on the team with 59.8 yards per game. RB D.J. Davis is the other ground threat (other than DeSomer), with 83 ypg and 1 TD. SIU has the #2 defense in the MVFC against the pass, allowing only 175.8 ypg in conference games, but they are vulnerable to the run, allowing 242.3 ypg and 8 TDs, 9th in the MVFC. LB Bryce Notree is tied for #8 in the conference with 10 tackles per game, while DEs Anthony Knighton and Jordan Berner, and LB Airan Reed are all tied for 9th with 1 tackle for loss per game. Knighton has 3 of his 4 TFL’s as sacks and DB Jeremy Chinn has 2 pass breakups and 2 INTs in 4 MVFC games.

Missouri State: MSU is kinda the opposite of SIU in terms of where they excel. They’re also in the bottom 3 of the conference in scoring and yardage, but whereas SIU gets most of theirs via the run, MSU has the #4 passing offense in the conference. QB Peyton Huslig averages 221.8 ypg with 4 TDs through the air and can also be a running threat, with 46.5 ypg and 3 TDs rushing (which makes him MSU’s top runner). WR Tyler Currie tops the list for receivers for the Bears with 62.8 ypg and 1 TD, with WRs Damoriea Vick (44.5 ypg) and Lorenzo Thomas (42.5 ypg) getting in on the action as well. The MSU O-Line (plus the mobility of Huslig) have only given up 4 sacks in their 4 MVFC games, which is tied for the best in the conference. Defensively, the Bears have given up the most yards of anyone in MVFC games. They’re not particularly great at any aspect of the defense, but they’re a little better against the run than they are the pass. LBs McNeece Egbim and Angelo Garbutt are the “bright spot” of the defense, with 10.8 and 10 tackles per game respectively, and each having 1 sack, and DE Matt McClellan is tied for #2 in the conference with 3.5 sacks.

My Take: Neither of these teams have had a great deal of success in the recent past with only one winning season between the both of them over the last 5 years (SIU in 2013). MSU, specifically, hasn’t had a winning season since 2009, although it looks like this year might be their best chance at one in a while, even though the last three games will likely be very tough. Overall, Missouri State is just in a much better spot right now than Southern Illinois, and I think they’ll pull out a 7-point win at home. Missouri State takes this one with a score of 35-28.