SOCON: Week 9 Review and Power Rankings

There were not very many surprises this week in the Southern Conference games.  The Citadel handled ETSU fairly easily to remain unbeaten.  Chattanooga beat WCU in Cullowhee.  Furman got another win, this time over VMI on the road.  Wofford bounced back nicely and won at home against Mercer. Probably the biggest surprise was the shootout between Samford and Mississippi State where the Bama Bulldogs almost pulled out one against the SEC Bulldogs.

#5 The Citadel 45  ETSU 10 (box score)

It didn’t take The Citadel Bulldogs long to take control over the Bucs of ETSU.  The Dogs scored on their first two possessions to make it 14-0 only half way through the first quarter.  The Citadel scored on 5 of its 7 first half possessions.  The biggest surprise was probably the first play of the game for the Dogs.  It was a 38 yard reception down the middle for the triple option team.

The Bulldogs threw 14 times in the first half.  That tied their season game high.  They needed to up their passing game just a bit.  Wofford made it tough a week ago because the Dogs were just a little too predictable and the Bulldogs were a bit rusty throwing the ball.  Against the Bucs it really didn’t matter to much.  The Citadel ran easily against ETSU.  On the day the Bulldogs racked up 427 yards on the ground.  That included 124 yards by Cam Jackson on just 7 attempts for a superb 17.7 yards a carry average.  He only had two carries on the first drive of the second half.

ETSU made some noise though.  After punting on their first 5 possessions, they went on a five play, 64 yard scoring drive in the second quarter. That drive was highlighted by a 52 yards pass. The Bucs went on another long drive in the second only to have it end on an interception by Dee Delaney at the goal line.

On its first drive of the second half, ETSU also scored on a 15 play 63 yard drive. The Dogs halted them at the 5 and they had to settle for a 22 yard field goal.

The Bulldogs did give it up twice on fumbles, but they were both committed by backups.  One was deep in ETSU territory.  The other was on a 4th and 2 at the ETSU 38.

On the day The Citadel did what they needed to.  They totaled 427 on the ground, and 77 in the air for a total of 504 yards. Allen did go 7/14 with one TD pass, all in the first half.  Another bright spot for the Dogs was its 108 punt return yards on 4 returns by DeAndre Schoultz.  He almost broke two for scores.

Austin Herink had a respectable day for ETSU and went 12/25 for 125 with one TD and one interception.  On the ground ETSU got only 87 yards out of a stingy Bulldogs defense. In addition to the 3 sacks by the Bulldogs, ETSU was tackled for a loss 6 more times.

The Bulldogs defense also remained solid in the fourth quarter and did not allow a score.  This year, they have only allowed 22 total points in the fourth quarter in all 8 games.

With the Bulldogs now at 8-0, 6-0, in addition to its best start ever, this win earned them a single season program record of 8 straight wins.  In addition, first year Head Coach Brent Thompson has won more SOCON games to begin his tenure than any other Bulldog coach.

The Bulldogs will face one of their sternest tests of the year next week as the Samford Bulldogs come to Charleston.  That game may very well decide the SOCON championship.  ETSU will travel to Macon to face Mercer.

#9 Chattanooga 38  WCU 25  (box score)

The Chattanooga Mocs gained 515 yards enroute to a comfortable victory over WCU on Saturday.  The Mocs scored on five of their six first half possessions, including TDs on their first four.

After punting on its first possession, the Western Carolina Catamounts looked to get in the groove with a one play 75 yards TD run.  But the Mocs defense stiffened up and Western was limited to a field goal on their next drive followed by three punts after that.  UTC took a 31-10 lead into the half.

After scoring on its first drive of the second half, the Mocs began to sub and run quite a bit.  WCU scored late in the third and again late in the fourth to make it 38-25. WCU went for and made a two point conversion on their last TD.

Mocs QB Bennifield went 11/16 for 182 yards with 2 TDs and one interception.  The Western defense never got to him.  On the ground, Chattanooga had a banner day with 323 yards. They were lead by Richardre Bagley who got 126 yards and Tyler Roberson who gained 121.  WCU continues to have issues stopping the run and trails the SOCON and FCS in yards allowed.

Even if they have problems stopping it, the Cats have a pretty good runner themselves in Detrez Newsome.  He gained 277 yards which was good enough for a Western Carolina game record.

WCU QB Tyrie Adams went 13/23 for only 117 yards with 1 TD.  He did not toss any interceptions though.  He also ran for 55, but lost 32 on four sacks. The Mocs defense also had 8 QB hurries.

In regard to the WCU defense, its looks as though Coach Speir has had enough.  On Sunday he announced that the Catamount defensive coordinator has been relieved of his duties.  Speir will assume those duties.  Probably a little late in coming, but something had to be done.  WCU was last in defense in the SOCON, by a long way.

On special teams, both punters had big days as the Mocs punter averaged 51 yards on two kicks and the WCU punter averaged 49.2 on 5 kicks.  Not bad.

Chattanooga gets a much deserved bye week next Saturday as it prepares for Wofford in two weeks. WCU hosts VMI in Cullowhee for its final home game.

Furman 24  VMI 10  (box score)

Furman’s defense had a strong day and limited VMI to just 280 total yards.  They also took out the VMI QB, Al Cobb, on a clean, but hard hit late in the second quarter.  Up to that point, Cobb had gone 16/26 for 139 yards.  He had gone 12/14 immediately leading up to his injury and it looked like he was hot.  His departure obviously knocked the Keydet’s morale pretty hard.

Down 17-3 at half, it took VMI’s back up QB, Austin Coulling a little while to get going.  He threw an interception to open the third quarter.  Overall he went 6/16 for 60 yards with one TD and 2 interceptions.  VMI found the end zone early in the fourth for the final score in the game.

Furman’s defense was effective in limiting the Keydet’s running game as well. VMI gained just 81 yards in the game.

The Furman offense, ineffective for most of their first six games, appears to have come alive.  Reese Hannon went 18/27 for 291 yards, 2 TDs and no interceptions.  Furman limited their turnovers to just one fumble which is a marked improvement over the first half of the year.  They are now at -1 on the year in turnovers.  Furman also gained 215 on the ground with Hannon leading the way with 84 yards. Hannon was not sacked all day.  He is a pretty big buy to bring down.

The prognosis for Cobb has not been revealed yet, but it will be devastating for VMI if they lose him. He is VMI’s top passing QB ever.

With Furman’s defense apparently back in health and in form, and their offense apparently clicking again, they may be a tale of two seasons.  They have Wofford, Western Carolina and Mercer remaining, and while a winning season has already passed them by, they can make it respectable by winning their last five games.  Two down, three to go.

Furman faces Wofford at home next week.  VMI travels to Western Carolina.

Wofford 31  Mercer 21 (box score)

It would have been understandable for Wofford to have had a hang over after a heartbreaking loss last week to The Citadel.  But good teams don’t do that.

It did take them a little while to get going though. After punting on their first possession, turning it over on downs close to mid-field, and then punting again, it was going to take a lot of effort to get through the Mercer defense.  They finally did in the second quarter on a 9 play 48 yards drive after their defense held Mercer on a 4th down try near midfield.  Both teams were counting on their defenses in order to take some chances on offense apparently.

Wofford scored again on their next possession to make it 14-0.  The drive took five plays and went 77 yards and included a 60 yards pass by Wofford’s QB, Brandon Goodson.  Mercer answered this with a 7 play, 74 yards drive of their own to make it 14-7 at half.  This drive included a 15 yard roughing the passer penalty and a 20 yard run by Mercer’s QB, John Russ.

After trading three, three and outs, Wofford struck first in the second half by blocking Mercer’s punt for a quick TD to make it 21-7.  After Wofford tacked on field goal, Mercer finally answered with a 7 play 75 yard drive to close it to 24-14 with 3:42 to go in the third quarter.

After Wofford attempted and failed to convert on a 4th and 1 at the Mercer 6, Mercer began to drive but faced a 4th and 1 at their own 33 yard line and elected to go for it.  They didn’t make it and Wofford made them pay for the gamble with a 14 play, 32 yard drive to score again. Yup, 14 plays and just 32 yards. It took 7:15 off the clock and two more 4th down conversions, but the score put the Terriers up 31-14 with just 6:39 to go in the game.

The Mercer Bears answered fast.  Just 4 plays and 74 yards got them into the end zone to make it 31-21. Russ connected on 40 and 25 yard passes during the drive.  Wofford milked the clock on their next drive, along with Mercer timeouts, but had to punt it back with 1:36 to go. The Terriers defense sealed the deal when they intercepted Russ on Mercer’s second play.

Wofford’s defense was as stingy as ever and allowed Mercer only 48 yards on the ground.  Russ went 30/45 and 271 yards with three TD and 2 interceptions.  Mercer had pretty good pass protection and Wofford did not record any sacks.

Wofford had some issues on the ground against a stubborn Mercer defense and gained only 205 yards rushing.  Lorenzo Long lead all Terrier runners with 108 and two TDs.  But Wofford did have some moderate success in the air.  Goodson went 5/10 for 112 yards.

Wofford had zero turnovers this week, but they did have an uncharacteristic 10 penalties for 128 yards. They went for it on 4th down 5 times and made it twice.  As usual, they dominated the TOP with 36:16 and that made all the difference.  Mercer also turned it over twice.

Wofford faces its nemesis, of sorts, next week when it travels to Greenville to play the Furman Paladins.  With this win against Mercer, Wofford is still on the playoff bubble and needs to win out for an 8-3 record to have a realistic shot at a playoff berth.  On the other hand, Mercer is probably done.  They can get to 7-4 if they win out and that would include a win over Samford, but 7-4 may not do it this year.  It will all depend on the rest of the playoff field.  Mercer hosts ETSU next week.

Miss St 56  #15 Samford 41  (box score)

Most teams playing FBS P5 teams are content to play respectable, don’t get anyone hurt and collect their check. Samford did not do any of these things. Well, I am sure they collected their check, but they also played more than respectable and they unfortunately had a couple injuries as well.

With 9:19 to go in the first, it was already 14-7.  There were three scores in under 6 minutes.  The game looked like it was going to be a track meet at this point.  It was.  There were 33 offensive possessions between the two teams.  There were 185 offensive plays run.  There was a total of 1296 yards of offense.

Although Samford never led, they were always on the heels of the SEC Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Just when it seemed that Samford was closing the gap, Miss St would pull ahead only to have Samford respond again.

Turnovers played a major part with Samford tossing three interceptions with one a pick six.  Miss St tossed two interceptions themselves and fumbled once.

One glaring difference was in penalties.  Not necessarily in the amount, but in the tolerance for making a call on Samford.  In the fourth, Samford was called for a late hit out of bounds on the Miss St QB while he was still in play and trying to gain more yards.  It was a critical drive for Miss St as well.  And we thought SOCON refs were bad.  The guy that called that should be fired.  There was also an intentional targeting call in the fourth on one of their Defensive linemen.  It was a good call, but the more I watched it I don’t think he was doing it intentionally. Still doesn’t matter, but I would hate to think he did it intentionally.  He will miss the first half next week though and that is not good news for Samford.

Samford was only down 28-20 at half.  It would have been easy to come out in the second half satisfied, but the Samford Bulldogs were playing to win.  They gave it their all and that is always nice to see. Samford would go on to score 21 more points. Unfortunately, Miss St scored 28 more.

On the day, Samford totaled 468 yards through the air. Hodges went 42/70 with 4 TDs and the three interceptions.  Did you read that? 4 passing TDs against an SEC defense.  Well, not a very good SEC defense, but that is still more yards than anyone has gained on Miss St including LSU, Auburn, or BYU. Samford was only sacked three times.  Samford also gained 159 on the ground.  That’s more yards than Samford gained against UTC or Wofford, or Furman, … or VMI.  Yikes.

While their offense was cranking it up, Samford’s defense is another matter.  They gave up 669 yards including 417 passing and 252 rushing.  Miss St was 7/15 on third down conversions.  They also gained about 5.5 yards per rush.  Apparently, at least three of Samford’s defensive players were injured in the game as well.  Their status for next week is not known yet.

Overall, regardless of the cost, and profit, it was a well played game by the Samford Bulldogs and they should be proud of their effort.  They travel to Charleston next week to face The Citadel in what may very well be the game that decides the Southern Conference Championship and auto bid for the FCS playoffs.  If the Citadel wins, they get it.  If Samford wins, it just becomes more complicated and it will either be The Citadel, Samford, or Chattanooga depending on what happens the week after.

Power Rankings

1 – The Citadel

2 – Samford – normally I would not move a team up when they lose, but Samford’s performance against an SEC team was deserving of it.

3 – Chattanooga

4 – Wofford

5 – Mercer

6 – Furman

7 – VMI

8 – WCU

9 – ETSU

 

MVFC: Week 9 Preview

I can’t believe we’re already 9 weeks into the season. After Saturday, most teams in the conference will have only 3 games left in the regular season (only 2 for the ISU’s). Teams have played 4 or 5 conference games and are really starting to separate themselves in the conference standings (conference record, then overall record):

MVFC Logo#7 South Dakota State – 4-0, 5-2
#3 North Dakota State – 3-1, 6-1
#14 Youngstown State – 3-1, 5-2
#22 South Dakota – 3-1, 4-3
#18 Western Illinois – 2-2, 5-2
#33 Northern Iowa – 2-2, 3-4
Indiana State – 2-3, 4-4
Missouri State – 1-3, 3-4
Illinois State – 1-4, 3-5
Southern Illinois – 0-4, 2-5

The schedule for this weekend is as follows (all time listed in Central and all rankings from the AGS Weekly Poll):

#7 South Dakota State at Illinois State
2 PM

Southern Illinois at Missouri State
2 PM

#18 Western Illinois at #22 South Dakota
2 PM

Indiana State at #14 Youngstown State
3 PM

#3 North Dakota State at #33 Northern Iowa
6 PM

If we consider 7 wins to be the “threshold” for playoff consideration (and yes, I’m well aware that the Leathernecks made the playoffs at 6-5 last season, but that was a pretty rare set of circumstances…#1 toughest schedule, beat 3 other playoff teams, finished 3rd in the conference…and it doesn’t look like anyone is going to get that kind of setup this year), then here’s what the teams need to do to have a shot at the playoffs (outside of the conference autobid):

SDSU – Win 2 of their last 4
NDSU – Win 1 of their last 4
YSU – Win 2 of their last 4
USD – Win 3 of their last 4
WIU – Win 2 of their last 4
UNI – Win all of their last 4
ISUb – Win all of their last 3
MSU – Effectively eliminated, can only get to 6 wins if they win their last 4 (technically it’d be 7 wins, but one was over a lower-division school, which essentially “doesn’t count”)
ISUr – Effectively eliminated, can only get to 6 wins if they win their last 3
SIU – Effectively eliminated, can only get to 6 wins if they win their last 4

Last week I mentioned a scenario where the top four teams in the conference could all finish 9-2 overall. If, for example:
SDSU wins the rest of their games
NDSU loses to YSU and wins the rest of their games
YSU beats NDSU and wins the rest
WIU wins the rest of their games

In that scenario, SDSU would win the conference championship at 8-0 in the MVFC, YSU would be second at 7-1, and NDSU and WIU would both be at 6-2, although NDSU would get the 3rd place nod due to head-to-head results. Some of those results aren’t entirely likely, but there is still a possibility that this is how it could go down.

On to the games…

#7 South Dakota State at Illinois State

South Dakota State is currently 5-2 on the season, 4-0 in the conference and is sitting in the driver’s seat heading towards the conference championship after a strong win over Youngstown State last weekend. The Jackrabbits will head down to Normal, IL to take on the Redbirds in their “Spack ‘Stache Bash” (seriously). Illinois State is 3-5 overall and 1-4 in the MVFC.

I’m not too sure what else can be said about SDSU that I haven’t mentioned in previous articles. Youngstown State’s exceptional defense held them to about 100 yards less than they normally get in total offense, but Illinois State’s defense is no Youngstown State. The Jackrabbits’ strong (6th in the FCS) passing offense is led by QB Taryn Christion, who is currently in the FCS top ten in passing yards (2,128), passing yards per game (304.8), passing TDs (24), and passing efficiency (172.9). His primary targets are WR Jake Wieneke (#1 in FCS in receiving TDs, 11th in yards per game) and TE Dallas Goedert (#3 in FCS in receiving TDs, 5th in yards per game), and they can also hand the ball off to RB Brady Mengarelli, who has 50.7 yards per game and a TD. Defensively, LB Christian Rozeboom has really made a name for himself in his first season, currently leading the team with 10.3 tackles per game (19th in FCS) including 4 for loss (3 sacks), 2 interceptions returned for 63 yards, and 2 forced fumbles. LB Jesse Bobbit is no slouch either, racking up 8.9 tackles per game and has an interception.

On ISU’s side of things, QB Jake Kolbe has been throwing for 230.8 yards per game and has 11 TDs. Primary receiving targets are WR Anthony Warrum with 78.1 yards per game and 4 TDs, and Christian Gibbs with 53 yards per game and 3 TDs. Running the ball now (top RB George Moreira suffered a season-ending injury a couple of weeks ago) is Freshman RB James Robinson who technically is only averaging 41 yards per game, but most of those games he was just a backup. In their last 3 games, he is averaging 89.7 yards per game on the ground and has 2 TDs, as well as a couple of catches (had 50 receiving yards against YSU 3 weeks ago). On the Redbirds defense, LB Alejandro Rivera leads the team with 67 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 1 fumble recovery. S Alec Kocour leads a defensive backfield that is fairly decent against the pass (2nd in the conference), and has 64 tackles, 1 for loss, and 1 interception.

So…here’s a matchup to look at…6’4” SDSU receivers Wieneke and Goedert, going against ISU’s 6’0” LB Rivera and S Alec Kocour. These two receivers can compete favorably against defenders who are their height…it could get scary if Christion has having a decent day finding his receivers against defenders that they’ve got 4 inches over. I’ve seen better offenses than Illinois State’s go against SDSU’s defense in the latter part of the season and have very little success, and I don’t see that changing significantly this game. Will we see another SDSU over WIU-style blowout (38 point win, if you forgot)…probably not, but it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility. I do think we’ll probably see SDSU win by a couple of scores though (and possibly more).

TL:DR – South Dakota State by 17

Southern Illinois at Missouri State

The Salukis are 2-5 this season, and a winless 0-4 in the conference including last weekend’s home loss against Indiana State. Things seemed like they were starting to look up for Missouri State…not so much in wins (although they beat last year’s win total after the second weekend of the season)…but it seemed like they were performing better than they had the last couple of years…until UNI found an offense and destroyed them by 54 points last weekend. Neither of these teams can reach 7 Division I wins now, so playoffs are out of the picture now. This game is essentially for bragging rights between the two southern-most MVFC schools, as well as being Missouri State’s Family Weekend game.

Despite their lack of success this season, Southern Illinois has a pretty decent offense (2nd in the conference behind SDSU). They’re the 7th best passing offense in the FCS, 15th in overall offense. The problem lies in the defense, which is 111th against the pass and 81st overall. The offense is led by QB Josh Straughan who’s been throwing for nearly exactly 300 yards per game this season with 13 TDs. Receiving targets are pretty well spread around, with 3 players (WRs Connor Iwema, Darrell James, and Jimmy Jones) all catching for 51-57 yards per game and each have at least 2 TDs. Their primary RB is Daquan Isom, who averages 61 yards per game and has 1 TD. Iwema and Isom were both out with injuries during their last game (they’ve been hit kinda hard with injuries this season), so I don’t know if they’ll be playing this weekend. LB Chase Allen leads the team in tackles with 48 including 4.5 for loss, a forced fumble, and a blocked kick.

Missouri State is, as previously mentioned, a bit better than last year, but still has quite a bit of trouble getting much going. They’re decent against the run, but like a few MVFC teams (ISUb, WIU, SIU)…horrible against the pass. Their offense is 99th overall in the FCS and it’s pretty even between their ability to stop the run vs defend the pass. Their QB Brodie Lambert only puts up 142.3 passing yards per game, and he’s not really a running threat. WR Malik Earl came back a week or two ago after being injured and is averaging 60.3 yards per game and has 2 TDs. WR Deion Holliman only gets 28.7 yards per game, but has also picked up 3 receiving TDs, as well as handling most of the kick and punt return duties. RB Calan Crowder runs fur 47.3 yards per game and has 4 TDs. LB Dylan Cole leads the team in tackles with 79, which puts him at #4 in the FCS.

So, in general I’d say that these two teams are fairly evenly matched, except in one area, passing. SIU does it pretty well…MSU defends it pretty poorly. Because of this, I think that SIU will be able to pick up a bit more yardage and an extra score over Missouri State and picking up their first conference win of the season.

TL:DR: Southern Illinois by 7

#18 Western Illinois at #22 South Dakota

So…nothing special about this game…just a couple of teams playing a game of football 😉

Yea…right. In case you happened to be living under a rock for the last 11 months, after the season ended last year, Western’s head coach, Bob Nielson, went to South Dakota and took most of his coaching staff with him. Personally, I think it worked out for the best, since WIU ended up with a great coach (and staff) with Coach Fisher (and his guys), but that doesn’t change the fact that the majority of the Leathernecks on the field today were recruited to come to Western by the guys who now make up slightly more than half of the USD coaching staff. So, that, combined with the way that the whole transition “went down” has meant that for a lot of the guys on the team, they’ve had this Saturday’s date circled on their calendars all year as THE game that they have to win….it’s like with the Bears…if you have only 1 win this season, beat the Packers…well…if Western had only 1 win this season (thankfully not the case)…beat the Coyotes. This one’s personal.

Western Illinois is currently sitting at 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the conference after the 8-point loss to North Dakota State last weekend. The South Dakota Coyotes are 4-3 now with a 3-1 conference record after their 3 point win over Illinois State last weekend. It was actually their 5th game this season that was decided by the point differential of a field goal. They’ve won all but one of those games, a 2 OT loss to North Dakota (one of 3 games this season to go to 2 OT for the Coyotes).

Western Illinois’ offense is led by QB Sean McGuire, who has put up 248.86 yards per game and 10 TDs through the air, as well as 3 TDs and just under 17 ½ yards per game. Receiving targets include WR Lance Lenoir (117.14 yards per game…4th in the FCS, and 4 TDs) and WR Joey Borsellino (52.17 yards per game and 1 TD). On the ground, RB Steve McShane has finally dropped below a 100 yard per game average after being held to only 18 yards against NDSU (this is a frequent source of pride for the Bison defense…holding very good RBs to very few yards) and is currently sitting at 95.4 yards per game with 7 TDs. Transfer RB Jamie Gilmore has also started to pick up some steam a little, running for 55 yards and 3 TDs in the last two games. LB Brett Taylor leads the defense with 75 tackles, 5.5 for loss, and 1 interception, and had a season-high 14 total tackles (13 solo) against NDSU last weekend.

South Dakota’s QB situation is a little bit of a question mark at this point, since they currently have 2 QBs who appear to be fairly decent. The starting QB for the first 6 games of the season was Chris Streveler, who was putting up 158.2 yards per game and 14 TDs through the air as well as rushing for just under 80 yards per game and 5 TDs. Streveler was hurt in (I believe) their game against Indiana State two weeks ago, so last week, they started Ryan Saeger. Saeger played for one possession, throwing for 42 yards and getting them close enough for a FG. I don’t know if he was hurt at the end of the drive, or just wasn’t doing well enough, because they then put in R-Freshman Austin Simmons, who then proceeded to throw for 205 yards and 2 TDs and run for another 36 yards. It sounds like Streveler is good enough to start this weekend, but it’s unclear at this point how short of a leash they’ll have on him and at what point they may decide to put Simmons back in (might depend on how well the Leathernecks are stopping the run game). In case you couldn’t tell from the stats, Streveler is a better running QB and Simmons is a better passing QB.

Because their starting QB for most of the season has been a running QB and they have a decent RB in Trevor Bouma (79.7 yards per game, 3 TDs), they haven’t done too much in the passing game with 3 players getting 31-36 yards per game: WRs Tacari Carpenter (4 TDs), Riley Donovan (4 TDs), and Alonge Brooks (2TDs). On the defense, LB Jet Moreland currently leads the team with 66 tackles and has a fumble recovery. But, the big story of the season so far is K/P Miles Bergner who is 2nd in the FCS in Field Goal Percentage including a 50 yarder, 4-5 in the 40-49 range, 5-5 from the 30-39 range, and 2-2 from the 20-29 range, and perfect 27-27 for XPs. If he’s within 40 yards…he won’t miss…not in the dome. Oh, and he’s also #1 in the country in punting average, with 43 punts averaging 46.6 yards. He good. He real good.

Overall, it looks like the teams are fairly evenly matched in most areas. WIU’s rushing defense is better than USD’s, but USD’s rushing offense is better than WIU’s. Western’s passing offense is better than South Dakota’s, but the Coyotes passing defense is better than the Leathernecks (most team’s are, actually, Western is 114th by that metric). However, when the rushing and passing is combined (total yards), WIU’s defense and offense are both a bit better than USD’s. Western better at limiting sacks their own QB, but South Dakota is better at sacking their opposing QBs. USD has a much better kicking game (probably overall the best in the FCS)….and Western has a much better time of possession. What this all boils down to is statistically a pretty even game, but in this situation, I think Western has a little bit of an advantage due to the “emotion factor”. I think at some point, this will work out to a situation where a USD FG is traded for a WIU TD.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 4

Indiana State at #14 Youngstown State

Last week, the Sycamores headed down to Southern Illinois and came away with a 22-14 victory bumping them up to an even 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the conference. Youngstown State headed up north to South Dakota State in a battle for 1st place in the conference, but went home 2nd, losing by 14. The Penguins are now 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the MVFC. This matchup will be Homecoming for Youngstown State.

ISU has the FCS’s 13th best passing offense (averaging 293.4 yards per game) led by QB Isaak Harker, who is currently 8th in the FCS with 292.1 passing yards per game and 7th in the FCS with 18 passing TDs. He’s one of the better (probably #2) pure passing QBs in the conference. Top receiving target, WR Robert Tonyan, averages 79.8 yards per game and has 9 TDs and WR Miles Thompson is right behind with 78.3 ypg and 6 TDs. RB Roland Genesy is the primary back, rushing for 63.6 ypg and 6 TDs. LB Jameer Thurman is the defensive leader in tackles with 70, including 9 for loss (1 sack), 1 interception and 2 fumble recoveries.

Unfortunately for the Sycamores, YSU has the #1 pass defense in the conference, only allowing 176.9 yards per game, as well as the #2 run defense. Overall in the FCS, they have the #7 defense giving up only 283.1 yards per game total. This defense is led by D-linemen Derek Rivers and Avery Moss. Neither are the team leader in tackles, but Moss has 7.5 tackles for loss, 5 QB hurries and 2 forced fumbles, and Rivers has 9 tackles for loss, 11 QB hurries, and a fumble recovery. LB Armand Dellovade is the team’s leader in tackles with 45, including 6 for loss. Offensively, the Penguins have had some issues with injuries, especially at the QB position. I won’t go into detail on that (I think I talked about it some a week or two ago), but essentially, I have no idea who will be starting at the QB position. It could be the occasionally injured Ricky Davis (a good running QB), Nathan Mays (a little less of a runner than Davis, but not bad), or even possibly Hunter Wells…the former starting QB for the past few years who was planning on sitting this season and transferring next year to another school (rumors have said that he’s been asked to reconsider and come back on the field)…so…who knows. YSU hasn’t been bit in the passing game this season no matter who’s taking the snaps though (no receivers average 30+ yards), as running the ball is their forte. The other bright spot in the offense is RB Martin Ruiz with 77.7 rushing yards per game and 7 TDs.

So, I have no idea what to expect from the YSU offense, but I know that their defense is really good (them and NDSU are the only two teams to hold SDSU’s offense to less than 38 points this season…YSU allowed 24). ISU is much better at offense, but not quite as good as SDSU. Personally, I see the YSU defense shutting down ISU pretty effectively, and the Penguin offense finding a way to put up enough points to get past them and win by a couple of TDs.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 14

#3 North Dakota State at #33 Northern Iowa

And finally, the late game this weekend pits one of the best teams in the country in the NDSU Bison against a “surprisingly offensive” (does that sound odd to anyone else?) UNI Panther team. NDSU spent last Saturday in Macomb, IL taking on Western Illinois and with some really good defensive stops, found a way to come away with an 8-point win. Even when NDSU is having a “down year”, they can still nearly always find a way to grind out a win. They are now 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the conference. Northern Iowa spent most of the season struggling on offense with their QB who should really be a RB, until last week when they put in their #2 QB (more of your standard passing QB) who then led them in an utter destruction of Missouri State to the tune of a 54-point margin. UNI now sits at 3-4 overall and 2-2 in the MVFC.

The Bison’s strength is the Herd their ground game on both sides of the ball…8th in the FCS against the run, 15th when they have the ball. Their passing offense isn’t great, but luckily for them, it hasn’t really needed to be most of the time. Their QB, Easton Stick only passes for 184.7  ypg. He does have 10 passing TDs, but he can also run, picking up an average of 40.4 yards per game on the ground with 3 TDs. He also often hands the ball off to RB King Frazier (79 ypg, 7 TDs) and RB Lance Dunn (52.7 ypg, 2 TDs). Since he doesn’t pass quite as much, his receivers don’t really have any crazy numbers…the top WR is Darrius Shepherd with 54 ypg and 3 TDs. Defensively, Robbie Grimsley is their top tackler with 51 including 1 sack, as well as 2 interceptions. MJ Stumpf has 43 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and 1 interception, and Pierre Gee-Tucker has 40 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and 2 fumble recoveries.

I can’t really tell at this point if Coach Farley just completely didn’t expect their backup QB Dunne to be able to be that good at hitting a variety of passes, or if he’s participating in the weirdest episode of Punk’D ever. I’ll go ahead and talk about their offense, but the problem is, this offense is COMPLETELY different with Sophomore Eli Dunne at the QB position as compared with Aaron Bailey. Bailey would run and only occasionally would pass…usually poorly, but every now and then hit a good one. Dunne nailed nearly every receiver he threw at last weekend. Now, to be fair, this was Missouri State…a team not known for having a great…well….anything (and the NDSU defense is MUCH better). So, instead of just listing all the stats that UNI’s offense put up last weekend, if you’re interested, you can check out my recap of the game here: https://thefcswedge.com/mvfc/mvfc-week-8-review/

I will just hit you with one quick number…Dunne’s QB efficiency rating last week: 202.16…that’s good….really good…dude can ball. So, what about the other side of things? UNI’s defense is 14th best in the country (stronger against the run than the pass), led by DL Karter Schult (#1 in the FCS in sacks with 1.36 per game, he also has 46 total tackles including 15 for loss, an interception, a forced fumble, 3 qb hurries, and a safety. LB Jared Farley is also very good, racking up 49 tackles, 2 for loss, and 1 interception.

Overall a really interesting game. The Bison are really good at running the ball and are kinda “meh” at throwing it, but UNI is very strong against the run and good overall defensively. NDSU’s defense is also very good at stopping the run but has been vulnerable to passes at times this season. NDSU is ranked higher and generally regarded as the “better” team this season, plus they frequently seem to be able to grind out wins, even in close games. On the other hand, this is something of a rivalry game, which often means you can throw a lot of that out the window because every snap and every down is going to be a hard-fought battle. Plus, the last time they had to go play at the UNIDome, they suffered their only loss of the 2014 season, going down 23-3. I think 2014 UNI was better than 2016 UNI is so far, but I also think that 2014 NDSU was better than 2016 NDSU is currently, so really this just feels like a tricky game to predict. I think the odds are slightly in NDSU’s favor, but despite their rankings, I wouldn’t really consider a UNI win a true “upset”, even though it technically would be. Still, gotta pick one, so I think I gotta go with NDSU at this point, but it’ll be tough and it’ll be close (and UNI will have likely found their QB for the future).

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 1

Patriot League: Week 9 Preview

The final weekend in October features the biggest league game so far this season. Fordham’s visit to #21 Lehigh will have both league and national ramifications. The winner will have the inside track to the Patriot League title and the automatic bid into the FCS playoffs. The loser will likely have to win out and hope for an at-large bid. The other game that could factor into the title chase is Holy Cross at Colgate on the nearly frozen tundra of Andy Kerr Stadium. The Raiders need a victory and a Fordham win over Lehigh to set up a showdown next week in the Bronx. The third league game of the weekend sees Georgetown traveling to beautiful Fisher Field to take on Lafayette. While this game does not have any championship implications it’s still important for the psyche of both teams as the season hits the stretch run. The other game this weekend is an intriguing non-conference tilt between Bucknell and #10 Charleston Southern. The Bison would send a strong message to the rest of the league, and country, with a road win over a Top 10 team.

 Bucknell at #10 Charleston Southern – 29 Oct. 11:45 A.M. Buccaneer Field Charleston, SC

(Big South Network)

Bucknell (3-4, 2-1) heads south to face 10th ranked Charleston Southern (4-2, 3-0) for a daunting late season non-conference game. The Bison will look to build off of the momentum they gained from their impressive 42-17 win over Lafayette last weekend. Bucknell’s offense was aided by the return of senior QB R.J. Nitti. While Nitti’s numbers certainly weren’t eye popping, the ability to shake off some of the rust that comes with missing significant time was important if Bucknell wants to finish the season strong. The Bison still have a chance to grab at least a share of the Patriot League title as November nears.

Charleston Southern is currently tied with Liberty atop the Big South standings. The Buccaneers opened the season with a heartbreaking overtime loss to 5 time defending FCS national champion North Dakota State in Fargo. The Bucs other loss came against Florida State in early September. Since then, Charleston Southern has won 3 straight. Last week the Bucs dominated Presbyterian on their  way to a convincing 35-7 win. Bucknell will have to play their best game of the year if they want to avoid being the Buccaneer’s fourth victim in a row.

A major key for Bucknell will be their defense. The Bison currently possess the top ranked unit (21.6 ppg allowed) in the Patriot League but haven’t faced an offense as capable as Charleston Southern’s all season. The Bucs are led by a bruising rushing attack (280 ypg, 6th in FCS) and timely passing (139 ypg). The unit is averaging 35.6 points per game on the season. The ground game’s success is a result of depth rather than one single star. Senior RB Mike Holloway (102 ypg 7 TDs) leads the way but he receives significant help from backfield mate Darius Hammond’s 40 ypg and 2 TDs and backup QB Robert Mitchell (50 ypg 4 TDs). Mitchell is coming off a 100 yard rushing game against Presbyterian. Charleston Southern likes to run a lot of option orientated plays when Mitchell comes in.

Normal starting QB Bucenell (125 ypg passing 6 TDs 1 INT) isn’t asked to do a lot in the passing game but when he is called upon he can deliver. In his last two games, @ Coastal Carolina and Presbyterian (both CSU wins), Bucenell is a combined 22-29 305 yards and 4 TDs. Bucknell’s defense will have to be aware of the play action pass when Bucenell is under center.

Bucknell finally has some stability at the quarterback position with the return of R.J. Nitti. The senior school record holder for passing yards displayed some rust last week but the Bison offense overall executed at a much high level than in previous weeks. RB Joey DeFloria (130 yards 1 TD) and WR Tim Carter ( 2 rushing TDs) are both coming off impressive performances in the win over Lafayette. Those two along with Nitti will need to be at the top of their game against a stingy Buccaneer defense (296 yards allowed) if the Bison hope to pull off the upset. Charleston Southern has big time playmakers at every level of defense. Corbin Jackson leads secondary with 32 total tackles and 1.5 TFL while Solomon Brown has been the most disruptive LB (30 tackles, 6.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks). The defensive line is anchored by Anthony Ellis who leads the team in sacks with 5.

Beating a Top 10 Buccaneer team on the road would certainly give Bucknell the confidence to win their remaining league games. Charleston Southern can’t afford a loss if they want to earn a bye in the playoffs. Their upcoming game against Liberty in Lynchburg will likely settle the Big South title. Due to some scheduling quirks the Buccaneers likely need to win their conference in order to make the playoffs.

Of Note: Bucknell has never faced a current Big South member while Charleston Southern has met a Patriot League team once; a 24-10 win over Georgetown in 2006. Bucknell visited Charleston, SC in 1970 for a game against The Citadel. The Bison’s last road win over a ranked team came against Fordham (31-10) in 2003.

Georgetown at Lafayette – 29 Oct. 12:30 P.M. Fisher Field Easton, PA

(Patriot League Network)

Georgetown (3-4, 0-2) heads to East Central Pennsylvania for a league tilt against Lafayette (1-7, 0-3). The two teams enter with a combined 11 game (Lafayette 7, Georgetown 4) losing streak. The Leopards have been in freefall since their season opening win over Central Connecticut. Six of their seven losses have been by double digits. Poor play along the offensive line has been the main issue on offense. The Leopards have the least productive (62 ypg) rushing attack in the Patriot League and their quarterbacks have been under constant duress all season.

The Hoya’s season got off to a promising 3-0 start (first since 1999) before hitting an October swoon. Their defense continues to play quite well (22.7 ppg allowed, 2nd PL) but it hasn’t been able to overcome a well below average offense (18.0 ppg, 7th PL). The struggles on “O” derailed the Hoyas chance to upset Fordham last Saturday. Georgetown had several opportunities to take the lead in the 17-14 loss but multiple interceptions, including one on the final drive, were too much to overcome. If the Hoyas can avoid turnovers and get improved QB play they should be able score points against a poor Lafayette defense (37.5 ppg allowed, 7th in PL).

Both teams enter the Saturday’s game with questions at quarterback. It’s reasonable to assume that senior Drew Reed will be back under center for Lafayette despite being pulled in favor of Blake Searfoss in last week’s loss to Bucknell. The Leopards still have the second best passing attack (261 ypg) in the league despite struggling mightily the last two weeks. They’ll face a Hoya defense that is more susceptible to the pass (240 ypg 6th in PL) than the run (147 ypg 3rd in PL).

The Hoya’s QB situation continues to be a little more muddled. According to this week’s two-deep either Clay Norris or Brock Jonhson will get the nod. Norris was pulled in favor of Johnson last week in the Hoya’s loss to Fordham. Both quarterbacks struggled with consistency and interceptions. Whoever gets the nod this weekend will be facing the league’s top passing defense (163.5 ypg allowed).

Neither team (Lafayette 7th in rushing, Georgetown 6th 92 ypg) has much of a ground attack to turn to if the quarterback play remains subpar. The Leopards turned to freshman Mike Dunn last week in attempt to inject some life into the rushing offense. Dunn aquitted himself quite well (5.8 ypc 1 TD) against a very tough Bucknell defensive front. He’ll likely see an increased role as the season draws to a conclusion. Alex Valles continues to see the bulk of the carries for the Hoyas despite averaging 43 ypg. Backup RB Isaa Ellsworth has made some big plays here and there but his opportunities remain limited. If there was ever a game to get things rolling this would be it as the Leopards possess the worst rush “D” (283 ypg allowed) in the league by a large margin.

Ultimately, this game could come down to the old adage, “who wants it more”. With both team’s seasons trending in the wrong direction to varying degrees, motivation might be the determining factor. Despite the current 4 game slide the Hoyas still have a shot at a winning season. Given Georgetown’s struggles over the last 15 years, that alone should be enough to come into the game focused. Lafayette is basically resigned to playing for pride and their coach at this point. The Leopards already secured their 7th straight losing season. Beating Lehigh to close out the year is about the only thing that could salvage the 2016 campaign at this point.

Of Note: Georgetown has won 4 out of 6 meetings against Lafayette this decade including a 38-7 shellacking last year in Washington D.C. The Leopards are still seeking their first Patriot League win since the 2014 season finale against Lehigh. Georgetown has entered November with a .500 or better record only once (2011) since joining the Patriot League in 2001. Lafayette leads the all-time series 12-7.

Fordham at #21 Lehigh – 29 Oct. 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

(Patriot League Network)

Fordham (5-2, 2-0) heads to the Christmas City to take on Lehigh (6-2, 3-0) in what is the Patriot League game of the year so far this season. With the forecast calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the 60’s it figures to be a perfect day for some offensive fireworks given the explosiveness of both offenses (Fordham 1st in PL in scoring 41 ppg, Lehigh 2nd 40 ppg). Last year the two teams combined for 101 points in Fordham’s 59-42 win.

The biggest key for the Ram’s offense is the status of starting QB Kevin Anderson (58% comp 237 ypg 16 TDs 3 INTs). The talented Marshall transfer was suspended for last week’s game against Georgetown for violating team rules. The nature of the violation has not been disclosed by Head Coach Breiner. Second string QB Luke Medlock got the start last week but had to leave early in the second half with an injury. Medlock has not practiced all week. He was replaced by Colton Smith whose main task was handing the ball off to Chase Edmonds down the stretch.

The Mountain Hawks also enter Saturday’s showdown with some uncertainty at quarterback. Nick Shafnisky was forced to miss last week’s game against Holy Cross with a lingering ankle injury. It was the second time this season (@ Yale was the other game) the senior signal caller was forced to watch from the sidelines. Brad Mayes put forth another excellent performance (20-30 287 yards 3 TDs) in relief. Mayes is the more polished passer but Shafnisky’s running ability makes him a little more difficult to prepare for.

The most difficult player to account for this weekend will no doubt be Fordham’s Chase Edmonds (1244 yards 177 ypg 12 TDs). The junior RB has terrorized Lehigh perhaps more than any opponent he’s faced the last three seasons. Last year he set a then Patriot League record with 347 yards in the Rams 17 point victory of the Mountain Hawks. He also added 2 receptions for 55 yards and a TD for good measure. If Lehigh wants to end their 3 game losing streak against Fordham they must be able to at least “contain” Edmonds. The Mountain Hawk’s rush defensive is vastly improved this year there’s still chinks in the armor (209 ypg allowed, 6th in PL). Lehigh will need the best game of the year from their front seven. Defensive End Tyler Cavenas and LB Colton Caslow need to continue their excellent play for the Mountain Hawks.

Lehigh must also be aware of 6’8 TE Phazahn Odom. To say Odom is a matchup nightmare would be a serious understatement. Odom doesn’t receive a ton of looks but when he does he’s nearly impossible to stop with an accurate throw. The Rams WRs, while talented, are not quite as dangerous as previous editions so the passing game doesn’t attack downfield nearly as much. As a result, Odom could come up huge near the goal line and on key 3rd downs.

The Fordham defensive coaches are also faced with their own challenges this weekend. They must figure out a way to slow down the top two WR’s in FCS in yards. Troy Pelletier currently leads the nation with 908 yards (9 TDs) while his running mate Gatlin Casey is a close second with 893 yards (11 TDs). Both receivers have shown the ability to attack every level of the defense. Fordham must figure out a way to get pressure on the QB in order disrupt the timing. That task might be a little more plausible with the return of LB Niko Thorpe and DL Emmanuel Adeyeye from injury. They’ll be working against a Lehigh offensive line that has done a great job protecting the QB (13 sacks allowed) so far this year. Fordham must also worry about (192 rushing yards allowed, 5th PL) Lehigh RB Dominic Bragalone. The stud sophomore RB is coming off his best game of the year (182 yards 2 TDs).

This figures to be a great game and an excellent showcase for Patriot League football. While the winner will have nothing guaranteed, they’ll certainly have the inside track to the automatic bid into the playoffs. Fordham has made the FCS playoffs each of the last 3 years (2 via at large bids) while Lehigh is looking for their first playoff appearance since 2011.

Of Note: Fordham has won the last 3 meetings; all by double digits. Before the Rams recent run of success the Mountain Hawks had won 23 out 25 games including the first 13 meetings in Bethlehem. The last time Lehigh lost 4 straight times to conference opponent was 2004-2007 (Lafayette). The Mountain Hawks own a 23-5 all-time series lead.

Holy Cross at Colgate – 29 Oct. 1:00 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

(Patriot League Network)

The leaves are off the trees and the first snow has fallen in the Chenango Valley yet Colgate (2-4, 1-1) will be making only their second appearance at home when they face Holy Cross (3-5, 1-2) on Saturday. The defending Patriot League champion Raiders are coming off a much needed bye following a brutal stretch of games to the start the year. They still have a chance to repeat but need Fordham to beat Lehigh on Saturday. Should that happen, the league championship may very well be on the line next week in the Bronx.

The Crusaders had a chance to get back in the title race last week against Lehigh but were thoroughly dominated to end the dream. Blaise Bell (14-27 157 yards 3 INTs) got the start and, outside of the opening drive, did not play well. Holy Cross has been plagued with erratic QB since Peter Pujals was injured early in the season. Sophomore Geoff Wade (65% comp., 143 ypg 5 TDs 2 INTs) is listed as the starter this week. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Blaise Bell get some playing time if Wade’s injured calf is still giving him trouble. Wade has proven to be more than capable so far this season when he’s had the opportunity to play. He definitely gives Holy Cross the best chance to pull the upset on the road.

Along with improved quarterback play, Holy Cross will need the defense to step up against a potent Colgate offense. The Crusader “D” played well against Bucknell and Harvard before struggling mightily against an explosive Lehigh “O”. Colgate’s offensive attack (31 ppg 3rd in PL, 404 ypg 3rd in PL) is more in line with Lehigh’s minus the diverse passing schemes. The Raiders rely heavily on their zone-read based ground attack (193 ypg) and timely passes that create big plays down the field.

It was announced this week that Colgate’s starting RB James Holland will miss the remainder of the season. His physical presence between the tackles has been missed. Keyon Washington (94 ypg 5.1 ypc 4 TDs) has done a great job filling in but his effectiveness would be even greater as a change of pace back. As it is QB Jake Melville (68 rushing ypg 4 TDs) remains the catalyst in the rushing attack. He’ll have the Crusader’s Nick McBeath (71 tackles, 6 TFL) and Co. on their toes all game with his ability to run the zone-read to near perfection.

If Wade is indeed healthy and under center for Holy Cross, the Crusaders should have some success against the shaky Raider’s defense (29.2 ppg allowed 4th PL, 419 ypg allowd 6th PL). The key will be getting the ball in the hands of Jake Wieczorek and Branden Flaherty’s hands. Blaise Bell struggled to consistently get those two the ball in last weekend’s loss to Lehigh when there were opportunities to do so. Wieczorek has turned into an explosive weapon at WR and punt returner. Due to the Crusader’s struggles at RB, Flaherty has been forced to spend time in the backfield which has limited his effectiveness in the passing game. If normal RB Diquan Walker (limited to 4 carries against Lehigh) is once again healthy Flaherty should be able to spend more time out wide.

With the grumblings growing on Mount St. James regarding Holy Cross’s Tom Gilmore’s future this game seems to have added importance. The Crusaders still have a chance to post a winning record with a strong finish which might be enough for Gilmore to stave off the gathering pitchforks.

Of Note: Colgate is currently riding a 4 game winning streak against Holy Cross. The Raiders have really dominated the series since 1998 by winning 13 out of 18 meetings. Prior to Colgate’s win in 1998 Holy Cross won 14 straight in the series. Colgate will surpass Dartmouth on Saturday as Holy Cross’s second most played opponent (79th meeting). Holy Cross leads the all-time series 40-33-5.

 

 

SOCON: Week 9 Preview

Probably the biggest game this week in the Southern Conference will be between Mercer and Wofford in Spartanburg. They are both 4-3 and on the playoff bubble. Furman travels to VMI to see if they can get win #2. Chattanooga travels to WCU hoping to continue its winning ways. The Citadel faces a struggling ETSU in Charleston. The Samford Bulldogs travel to Starkville, Mississippi to face the SEC Bulldogs of Miss St. (SOCON weekly notes)

Mercer at Wofford  1:30PM (ESPN3) (Mercer game notes) (Wofford game notes)

The Mercer Bears got a little lax last week late in the game against a scrappy Austin Peay. They can’t do that this week. Wofford is coming off an emotional loss in OT and they will be pressing to get back on track.

Mercer has a fairly balanced offense with 175 a game on the ground and 220 through the air. They are ball hungry too. Mercer is at +7 in turnover margin. John Russ, Mercer’s Sr QB, is pretty good. For the year he is 138/225 with 11 TDs and only 4 interceptions. He can throw the deep ball fairly well.  They have good running backs which can burn you as well.

Mercer will be challenged by the Wofford Terrier’s defense. Somewhat of an enigma until last week, the Terriers bared their teeth holding The Citadel to its lowest rushing total all year. Wofford is #1 in rushing defense in FCS and #2 in total defense. They aren’t allowing many first downs and are first in the SOCON giving up only 14 a game. But their best defense is obviously their ball hogging ways on offense. They lead FCS with a possession time of 35:12. Hard for other teams to score if they don’t have the ball.

On offense Wofford is #4 in FCS rushing offense with 310 a game. They can move the ball. If they have any weakness, and it showed last game, they can drop the ball. They are still pretty good on the year and are at +3, but ball security can suffer it they get careless, especially against a good defense. They only average 67 yards through the air a game, but they usually don’t need it.

On defense the Bears are doing pretty good against the run giving up only 176 yards a game. Looking back at their game with The Citadel they did well allowing only 262 yards.  But on the year they have given up 421 total yards a game on average.  They are also giving up third down conversions at a rate of 43%.  Not good against a team like Wofford.

This game could have big implications for both teams. With each team being 4-3 and 2-2 in conference play, they really need to win out in order to have a good shot at the playoffs. Mercer still has Samford and Wofford has UTC later, but this game will probably knock the losing team out of contention.  So look for it to be a hard fought game. Last year it took OT to decide and Mercer lost due to a missed XP.  Wofford should win by 10 at home.

Furman at VMI  1:30PM (ESPN3) (Furman game notes) (VMI game notes)

Already faced with a losing season, Furman (1-6, 1-3) can only hope to make it look respectable this year. They finally seem to be clicking in their last game. Using their SR QB Reese Hannon, they may be over the hump as far as offensive output goes. VMI, (3-4, 1-3), is still fighting for a winning season. Their last one was in 1981.

Furman’s defense has kept them in game. They are good. It’s their offense that has let them down. Furman has averaged 367 a game, but that has gone up dramatically since Hannon took back over. They are now getting 263 a game through the air which is not bad. There 100 or so yards a game on the ground isn’t helping them though.

On defense they are giving up 375 a game, including a respectable 177 through the air. They got slashed a couple times when they were hit by injuries to their linebackers. Now healthy again, they should get back to some lower numbers especially on the ground.

But they don’t need to worry too terribly much about the ground this week. VMI is primarily an aerial attack although they have been trying to run more apparently.   Not with great success.  Al Cobb, VMI’s Jr QB has gone 162/250 for 1697 yards with 9 TDs and only 5 interceptions. He is doing much better at not throwing it to the other team this year. He had 18 last year. On the ground the Keydets are averaging only 112 a game.

With both teams probably slinging it much of the game, pass protection will be critical. VMI has allowed 19 sacks so far but Furman has gotten just 8 to date. The Paladins are protecting their QB a little better allowing 10 with VMI’s defense gaining 11 on the year.

Give Furman the edge in this game, but by no more than 10 points.

ETSU at #5 The Citadel 2PM (ESPN3) (The Citadel game notes)

They say that defenses win championships. If that was demonstrated at all last week, The Citadel’s defense did it. With their offense all but shut out most of the game, it was the defense that saved the day. The heartening part for the Bulldogs faithful is that their defense was on the field a lot last week against Wofford and they still stood up late in the game. The Bulldogs (7-0, 5-0) return home to Charleston for only the third time this year.

This week will be a little bit easier than last week, at least on paper. The ETSU Bucs (3-4, 1-4) are only averaging 270 yards a game. Bucs QB, Austin Herink has gone 95/162 for 870 yards with only 3 TDs and 2 interceptions. ETSU has allowed 19 sacks on the year. Not good news with The Citadel defense gaining 19 so far. ETSU is gaining 135 yards on the ground each game. I don’t see them getting much traction against the Bulldogs defense on the ground so expect Herink to toss it quite a bit.

The Dogs are giving up 136 on the ground and 171 through the air each week. But like Wofford, their best defense is usually holding on to the ball with long drives and keeping it away from the other team. They lead the SOCON in third down conversions at 49%.  The Citadel’s defense is also adept at forcing turnovers.  They have done well in that department giving the Dogs a +8 turnover margin on the year.

The Citadel leads FCS is rushing with 354 yards a game. While they have been challenged a couple times this year, the Buc’s defense will not be up to it. The Bucs have been giving up 185 rushing a game along with 202 through the air. While defending a passing game is not too much of a concern with The Citadel’s option attack, the Bulldogs really need to step it in that department.  At least a little bit.  This could be the game where they try and air it out more.

Look for the more experience Bulldogs to run at will, but not do to anything more fancy than pass a little more. Dogs by more than 28 at home.

#9 Chattanooga at WCU 3:30PM (SOCON Network) (UTC game notes) (WCU game notes)

The Mocs (7-1, 5-1) took care of business last week against VMI. They also seemed to have a found a replacement for running back Derrick Craine, at least until he is better. They were fairly effective in limiting VMI’s QB Al Cobb.

This week they have to deal with Tyrie Adams of Western Carolina. He is not as experienced or poised as Cobb, but he can be effective. Adams has gone 157/243 for 1818 yards on the year with 12 TDs and 8 interceptions. He can certainly throw the ball. As a redshirt freshman, he will only get better. One thing limiting him right now is the Cats have suffered a league leading 20 sacks. Not good news for the league leading sackers, UTC, who have 22.

WCU (0-5, 1-6) is also rushing for only 117 yards a game but Detrez Newsome can be effective. He has dropped off as of late, but he is still a dangerous runner. But Chattanooga allows only 98 yards on the ground each week, so don’t look for WCU to win this on the ground.

On offense, Chattanooga has been rolling with or without Craine. They remain the epitome of a balance offense averaging 436 yards a game with 219 through the air and 217 on the ground. Moc’s QB, Alejandro Bennifield, has gone 126/193 with 17 TDs and only 4 interceptions. He is a dangerous runner as well.

On defense Western is last in the SOCON in both scoring defense and total defense. Giving up over 500 yards an outing, the Cats will need to step up this week if they hope to slow the Mocs down. WCU is also deep in the hole on turnovers at -8 for the year. They certainly can’t give the Mocs any freebies.

Chattanooga put a hurt on the Cats the last couple of years. Don’t expect anything different this year, but it should be a tad closer in Cullowhee. Mocs win by about 14.

#16 Samford at Miss St  3:30PM (TV-SEC Network) (Samford game notes)

Samford (6-1, 4-1) has continued to rise in the polls, slowly but surely. This is not a timely game for that to continue…unless they win of course. FBS games are always a little bit of love hate thing for fans. Sure if you pull off the big upset, it is awesome, but mostly you just get to see your teams get steamrolled by the deeper rosters. Could the Samford Bulldogs pull it off? Sure. AGS. However, with Samford having some injury issues and a big game in two weeks against The Citadel, not sure their head will be it.

Samford by far has one of the best passing games in FCS. Devlin Hodges has the third most yards in FCS behind the Eastern Washington’s and Sam Houston’s QBs. He has gone 212/298 for 2445 yards with 24 TDs and only 5 interceptions. Not bad. And Samford has even stepped up in rushing, at least in the last game where they ran for 215 yards.

But they will face a sturdy SEC defense that is giving up 389 yards a game but only 235 in passing. I have no doubt that the SEC Bulldogs will not be able to totally stop Hodges, but he will probably not see his nearly 350 yard a game average.

On defense, Samford has given up a respectable 376 yards a game, with most coming through the air. Miss St has a pretty balance offense with 396 total yards with 192 through the air and 204 rushing.  Samford’s defense has 15 sacks on the year.

If Samford is to have a chance they will need to keep their defense off the field, which means longer drives. Samford scores so fast sometimes, 1-2 minutes, their defense plays an awful lot. But in addition to scoring fast, their offense only converts third downs 34% of the time. They have a lot of three and outs slinging the ball around. Their TOP is only about 26 minutes a game. They will get run down if this happens against Miss St. Maybe that is why they opened up the running game last week.

You never know what will happen in these games, but Samford will certainly need to have the ball bounce their way once or twice to have a realistic shot. Most likely, it will be Miss St by 28.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1027– Big South SotC Show

What is “SotC”?
State of the Conference.  These are short 8 to 10 minute shows we will be doing every once in a while.  Should be a different conferences each week if I got my guess right.  This week, it is the Big South.  Our guest this week is our very own Big South Conference reporter David Zazofsky. David does an does impeccable job covering the Big South FB Conference for thefcswedge.com.

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BIG SOUTH: Week 9 Preview

(3-4) Bucknell @ (4-2) Charleston Southern – Saturday, Oct 29th,  11:45am (Big South Network)

After not playing a home game in nearly two months, this week Charleston Southern now gets their second home game in as many weeks.  In keeping with a season of firsts for CSU, this week the Bucs host first-time opponent Bucknell out of the Patriot League.  CSU has not played a Patriot League team since hosting Georgetown back in 2006.  For their part, Bucknell has played a Big South program only once with that being a successful visit to VMI that closed out the 2013 season and VMI’s tenure in the Big South.

Charleston Southern comes into this game after manhandling a spectacularly unproductive Presbyterian team in every aspect of the game.  The Bucs did pretty much whatever they wanted on offense as the running back duo of Ben Robinson and Mike Holloway both scored touchdowns as did the quarterback duo of Shane Bucenell and Robert Mitchell.

For their part, the Bucknell Bison (bi-sun in this case, not bi-zun) are coming off a 42-17 win over 1-7 Lafayette. Defensively, Bucknell and looks very similar to Presbyterian.  Both run a four-man front on defense that tries to get up the field quickly to disrupt offensive motion. Offensively, Bucknell utilizes a lot of different offensive formations to create mismatches which, also like Presbyterian, has only been somewhat successful.  In terms of computer rankings, Bucknell is currently ranked ten spots below Presbyterian so that bodes well for the host team. The Bison are quarterbacked by 6’6” senior RJ Nitti who has missed most of the season with injury but returned last week against Lafayette.  He wasn’t especially impressive in that win but he didn’t need to be as Bucknell rolled up nearly 300 yards rushing against Lafayette’s porous defense.  This will Bucknell’s first game this season against an opponent from the upper portion of FCS but they will face two more (Lehigh and Fordham) in the next three weeks.

What CSU has to do against Bucknell:  Jump out in front early.  Bucknell isn’t especially good at throwing the ball and will be at a significant disadvantage if CSU forces them to play catch-up.

Best case scenario for CSU against Bucknell:  The Bucs pick up where they left off last Saturday night.  Bucknell is a very similar opponent to Presbyterian on each side of the ball just in a different shade of a blue.

Worst case scenario for CSU against Bucknell:  Bucknell gets turnovers on defense and can dominate the time of possession on offense.  CSU is still better equipped than Bucknell in the passing game to come from behind though.

 

 

(5-2) Kennesaw St @ (4-4) Monmouth – Saturday, Oct 29th, 1:00pm (Big South Network) 

Monmouth hosts Kennesaw State for homecoming in just their third but still final home game of the 2016 season.  This will also be the final game ever played at the current Kessler Field.  Monmouth’s stadium is scheduled to undergo a demolition and radical re-construction in the off-season so MU is trying to get as quick a jump on that as possible.  There have been bulldozers on site since August and those machines may be revving up by the end of the 4th quarter.

Kennesaw comes into this game fresh off of a dominating first half at Gardner-Webb that became a very un-dominating fourth-quarter stalemate at the end.  Much like their game at Furman several weeks prior, the Owls jumped out to a huge lead only to have both the offense and defense run out of gas in the second half and have to grip and claw just to hold on to that lead to the final whistle.  In both cases, they were successful but this pattern would seem to play directly into the hands of their hosts this week, the Monmouth Hawks.

Badly in need of a home game, Monmouth comes in fresh off of giving a program-record 683 yards of offense at Liberty.  However, in the game, Monmouth found themselves buried under an avalanche of Liberty points in the first half and all but declared dead.  Instead, the Hawks clawed their way back up and came close to breaking through late in the second half.  This is a game between one program that can’t quite seem to kill off their opponent and one program that just absolutely refuses to die.  It’s like the plot of a Wes Craven movie so it’s only fitting that this game is being played on Halloween weekend.

Kennesaw’s offense is just red-hot right now.  Last week, marked the return of pre-season starting quarterback Trey White for a few plays.  Chandler Burks started and finished the game but it hasn’t really mattered who’s under center for the Owls.  Thus far, ETSU and Liberty have been the only teams that held KSU under 36 points and, not coincidentally, those are Kennesaw’s only two losses.  In their three wins against FCS competition, they’re still averaging an eye-popping 45 points per game which is just astounding for a second-year program.

A year ago, Kennesaw won the opener in this series, 23-13, behind a stout effort from their defense.  That defense, however, has been more or less absent in recent weeks.  In their last four games against FCS competition, KSU has surrendered more than 36 points a game.  They play an extremely aggressive blitz-heavy style of defense – even when up multiple scores – that has left gaping holes in the secondary and allowed both Furman and Gardner-Webb to quickly score and get back into games.

This, however, fits exactly what Monmouth prefers to do on offense.  The Hawks love the screen, the draw and the stretch play, all things that work really well against defensive blitzes.  Cody Williams got the start for Monmouth at QB but it was the late substitution of Kenji Bahar in the third quarter that jump-started the Hawk O.  Williams suffered an ankle injury at Presbyterian and his throwing mechanics looked suspect against Liberty.  Bahar doesn’t have the level of experience with the offense that Williams does but he’s most likely the healthier and more effective option right now.  Defensively, the Hawks also love to blitz.  Against Liberty, they simply would not stop blitzing the Flames’ freshman quarterback and taped-together offensive line.  It didn’t work – like, at all – but the Hawks kept doing it all the way to the final whistle and I can only guess it’s because they were trying to keep their players in an attacking mindset.

What Kennesaw has to do against Monmouth:  Score late.  Against their last three FCS opponents, the Owls have 17 second half points total.

What Monmouth has to do against Kennesaw – Hang in and don’t fall behind by too much in the first half.  Recent history suggests that the Hawks will have a chance late to steal this one.

 

(5-2) Coastal Carolina @ (2-5)  Presbyterian – Saturday, October 29th, 2:00pm (Big South Network)

Fresh off of an absolute traveshamockery of a college football game at Charleston Southern wherein Presbyterian gave up over 500 yards of offense to CSU and just barely managed to crack 100 yards themselves, the Blue Hose host Sun Belt Conference-bound Coastal Carolina for homecoming.  That probably seemed like a much better idea when this schedule was released last December.

Presbyterian is in desperate need for some answers on offense.  The quarterback position has been in flux all year for PC as pre-season starter Ben Cheek was injured in Week 2, returned after the bye week to start the next two games only to be injured again in the Thursday night win over Monmouth.  Will Brock stepped in for Cheek initially but he suffered a lower leg injury against Florida Tech and hasn’t been seen since.  Third-teamer John Walker finished the Monmouth game admirably but was just as ineffectual as the rest of the PC offense against CSU.  Through seven games, Presbyterian has only managed to score seven total touchdowns for the entire season with the first four of them coming against non-scholarship Campbell on September 17th.  Since then, the Blue Hose have managed just 30 points in over a month and are averaging just 5.5 points a game against scholarship competition.

For their part, Coastal’s “season of change” has become more a season of survival as the injury situation in Conway has gone from “pretty bad” to “dire”.  Having already lost three quarterbacks for the season and having to slap a jersey on an intern just to run practice (<- there’s a link), Coastal lost their starting right tackle on the first play of the game against Gardner-Webb to injury and All-American RB De’Angelo Henderson shortly thereafter.  Last week, the Chanticleers hosted previously 1-5 Central Connecticut State in what under normal circumstances should have been little more than a pleasant jog around the teal turf for the home team.  Instead, CCU needed two defensive touchdowns from LB Alex Scearce to build a 23-3 halftime lead and then a 4th-quarter defensive stand to hold off a late Blue Devil charge that allowed the hosts to escape with a 33-25 win.

These two teams have faced each other nine consecutive years with Coastal winning the last eight in a row by an average of 20 points.  As long as the injury list is for Coastal and as hampered as they are by it, there should still be more than enough talent on that sideline to handle this particular Presbyterian team that seems deadest on setting some offensive records for all the wrong reasons.

What Coastal has to do against Presbyterian:  Get a single touchdown since, statistically speaking, six points should be sufficient.  More realistically, Coastal needs to keep pounding the rock on offense.  Henderson and (also injured) Osharmar Abercrombie aren’t the only talented running backs on the Coastal roster.  Defensively, keep pressure on whatever quarterback Presbyterian rolls out there.  Aside from Brock, poise has not been the hallmark of that position this year.

What Presbyterian has to do against Coastal – Improve over last week.  Admittedly, that’s a pretty low bar to hurdle but you have to work with what you’ve got.

 

 

 

(3-5) Gardner-Webb @   (4-3)   Liberty – Saturday, October 29th, 3:30pm (ESPN3, LFSN)

In terms of the Big South conference title, this game is easily the most significant match-up of the day.  Liberty needs to win this game in order to keep their forward momentum going and, at 2-0 in conference play, to keep pace in the standings with Charleston Southern.  For Gardner-Webb, this is the first in what is, essentially, the most crucial two weeks of their 2016 season.  After visiting Liberty this weekend, the Runnin’ Bulldogs will head down I-26 to Charleston Southern the following Saturday.  G-W (1-1) is a game back of both teams in the standings and desperately needs to make up ground to have any chance at all of earning their first Big South title since 2004.

Offensively, Gardner-Webb comes into this game after an offensive showcase against Kennesaw State that featured 100-yard rushing days from both RB Khalil Lewis and QB Tyrell Maxwell as well as receiving touchdowns from three different wide-outs.  Unfortunately, that offensive effort fell short late as G-W failed to convert on 4th down attempts on back-to-back drives in the 4th quarter.  Even more unfortunately, the game was also a defensive fiasco in which the Bulldogs gave up 40 first-half points and dig a hole that their offense just couldn’t quite climb out of.

Liberty had a nearly polar opposite day last week, dominating Monmouth early and building a big lead only to have Monmouth make a late charge.  The Flames eventually blunted that charge in the 4th quarter but there were certainly a few chewed-down fingernails on the Liberty sidelines last Saturday.

This game does or should mean a lot to Liberty for no other reason than it would represent a return to form and some closure on the disappointments of 2015.  Prior to last October, Liberty had won eight straight in the series and the Flames’ hopes were burning high, coming off of a playoff season and ranked 14th in the nation and with early wins over #10 Montana and an FBS bowl-bound Georgia State team.   Those hopes were quickly extinguished in the North Carolina rain as Gardner-Webb, who had been completely shut out against Liberty for two straight years, exploded for 27 first half points on their way to a 34-20 win.  That loss pretty much ended Liberty’s shot at the Big South autobid and, along with a loss at Monmouth the following week, made the difference between an 8-3 year with a good case for an at-large bid and a 6-5 season  with everyone sitting at home in November.

The bottom line is that we really don’t know how good either team is yet.  After competing well against some high-caliber teams in the first half of the season, Gardner-Webb has only wins over Elon, Presbyterian and D2 Benedict to show for it and just lost two straight games at home.  By contrast, Liberty took nearly all of September to get off the ground, particularly on offense, but have now won three straight.  Of those three wins, however, only the win over Kennesaw was against a particularly strong opponent.

It would seem that the two team’s statistical trends are at a crossing point here but there’s one more thing to consider and that is that Gardner-Webb has a long history of fading late in the season.  It’s been a pattern for a while but one that has become more pronounced over the course of the last three years.  In games played in the latter part of the season (defined here as on or after October 15th), Gardner-Webb is 6-11 in those games since 2012.  During that same time span, Liberty is 13-5.  Bear in mind that these games are primarily Big South conference competition when a team’s postseason hopes are most on the line.

What Gardner-Webb needs to do against Liberty:  Stay out of 3rd-and-long situations.  The Gardner-Webb offense is dramatically improved but that’s been their kryptonite this year.  Defensively, resist the urge to bring extra pressure on Liberty’s freshman quarterback.  Buckshot Calvert is playing really well at the moment and blitzing only makes it easier for a hot QB to make his reads.

What Liberty needs to do against Gardner-Webb – Keep Maxwell and Lewis out of the end zone.  While Liberty has given up a lot of big plays and yards between the 20’s this year, they have been fairly strong inside the red zone.  The Bulldog offense is built around creating space for Maxwell and Lewis to run; if Liberty can force G-W to go to the air in scoring situations, it’s to the Flames’ advantage.  On offense, keep spreading the ball around.  In the current three-game win streak, the offense has featured at least eight different receivers and key contributions from every healthy running back in every game.  That kind of multiplicity is hard to come by, particularly in FCS.

The FCS Wedge – 2016-1026- LISTEN UP!

This week on The FCS Wedge the fellas go over last week’s bigger games and discuss the outcomes:

North Dakota State 21 Western Illinois 13

The Citadel 24 Wofford 21

South Dakota State 24 Youngstown State 10

St. Francis 14 Duquesne 10

Villanova 24 Albany 13

Weber State 37 Southern Utah 36

Central Arkansas 22 Lamar 12

They duck into the AGS Poll for this week and take a gander at the happenings within said poll.

Then a preview of some of the top upcoming games for this coming weekend are on tap.

Finally, we get to start The FCS Wedge Bracketology. This is a bracket based off the AGS Poll for the current week as put together by another fine contributor at thefcswedge.com, Jarad Mahlen. Here is the bracket if you want to look at it while you listen to the discussion at the end of the podcast.

10/26/2016 Bracket

 

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Must Watch Week 9

We’re getting into the thick of things as conference championships and playoff spots are on the line. You may be shocked by some of the games you MUST WATCH in Week 9. (Note: Stony Brook @ New Hampshire is a must watch game, but there is no TV or internet feed.)

Saturday, October 29th
St. Francis (PA) @ Sacred Heart 11:00am STREAM
Fordham @ Lehigh 11:30am STREAM
San Diego @ Marist 12:00pm STREAM
Weber State @ North Dakota 1:00pm STREAM
Western Illinois @ South Dakota 2:00pm ESPN3
Eastern Illinois @ Jackonville State 2:00pm ESPN3
Samford @ Mississippi State 2:30om ESPN3
Central Arkansas @ Southeastern Louisiana 2:30pm ESPN3
Montana @ Eastern Washington 2:35pm STREAM
Indiana State @ Youngstown State 3:00pm ESPN3
North Dakota State @ Northern Iowa 6:00pm ESPN3
  • The NEC championship looks to be hotly contested this season as Saint Francis sits at 2-0 with 4 teams stitting below them with one conference loss. Only two of the one loss teams have not lost to Saint Francis, Bryant and Sacred Heart. Sacred Heart grabbed attention when they pounded Stony Brook 38-10. This game will either cement SFU’s spot at the top or could potentially create a giant logjam atop the NEC.
  • This weekend may feature the premier battle in the Patriot League championship. Since Lehigh knocked Colgate from the throne earlier in the season, a win over Fordham this weekend would leave them sitting pretty. If Fordham gets the win, things could get complicated and next weekend’s game between Fordham and Colgate could become very important. Check into this game for a high scoring shootout.
  • The last remaining undefeated teams in the Pioneer League take the field in New York this weekend. Can San Diego overcome the cross-country flight? A Torero win nearly wraps up a playoff spot for San Diego with the schedule they have left. If Marist wins they still have Dayton and Jacksonville on the schedule.
  • Weber State is one of the unexpected stories in FCS football this year and they sit at 4-0 in the Big Sky and 5-2 overall. North Dakota has also come on strong since opening 0-2. Both teams have long win streaks going so something has to give in this battle. It seems like North Dakota has the advantage being at home, but the Big Sky has been full of surprises this season.
  • No one expected South Dakota to be tied for 2nd in the conference at the end of October, but this weekend will be a big battle for a playoff spot. Both teams are neck and neck in the conference standings and the loser of this game will be in a tough spot. Western Illinois had a great non-conference season but still has a tough game against Northern Iowa left on the schedule.
  • Eastern Illinois took some of the shine off of this game with a tough loss last weekend, but they still might be Jacksonville State’s biggest challenge in the OVC this season. A loss knocks EIU off the playoff bubble, but a win might leave them securely in and send JSU plummeting in the polls.
  • Samford takes a break from SoCon play to take on the down and out Mississippi State Bulldogs from the SEC. FBS games are always a tough battle, but this might be one Samford can snag.
  •  Southeastern Louisiana has come on strong in the SLC after a rocky start. A win on Saturday would leave them in contention for a playoff spot with a fairly easy path in their last three games. Central Arkansas has been on a roll since their close loss to Samford in Week 2. A Bear win this weekend moves us one step closer to a de facto conference championship game between UCA and Sam Houston State on the last weekend of the season.
  • This battle between two of the top powers out West could decide which Big Sky team, if any, receives a seed come playoff time. Expect a high scoring affair with plenty of passion between these rivals. The game may be played on red turf, but you don’t want to miss this one.
  • Youngstown State looks to rebound against a down and out Indiana State team. Can the Penguins shake their late season curse or will Indiana State play the spoiler?
  • Northern Iowa pulled out a new quarterback last week to ignite their offense. Which quarterback will the Bison see this weekend? UNI needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt and NDSU is still looking for a playoff seed.

Big Sky Week 8: Recap and Power Rankings

Big Sky

The top of the Big Sky race didn’t change a considerable amount after this weekend’s action, but Montana might have found themselves in a hole they may not be able to dig out of. The Griz went on the road to face a surging Northern Arizona squad and came away with an eleven point loss to the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona relied on throwing the ball downfield much of the game to beat the Griz secondary to setup their scores. Northern Arizona was surprisingly dominant on both sides of the line of scrimmage and kept the Griz offense off balance most of the game. The Lumberjacks are now the winners of three in a row and heading into a bye week. It’s not improbable they could win out and force the playoff committee into some decisions.

Big Sky co-leader North Dakota got more than they bargained for on Saturday when they took on the mostly hapless Idaho State. The Bengals have been mostly non-competitive in their losses this year but somehow managed to stay close with the Fighting Hawks. The game was tied at halftime with North Dakota finally pulling ahead for good in the third quarter. North Dakota got a conference win on the road, and it was ugly, but it happened.

Southern Utah appeared to have their contest with Weber State wrapped up and was going to hand Weber their first conference loss. Someone forgot to mention to the Wildcats that the game was over. Up 22 points in the 4th quarter Southern Utah inexplicably gave up 23 unanswered points and allowed Weber to come back and win 37-36. Jadrian Clark threw a touchdown pass to Darryl Denby with :31 left on the clock to seal the victory for the Wildcats. Next weekend sets up a big matchup between Weber State and North Dakota in Grand Forks.

There is now a log jam at the top of the Big Sky standings with North Dakota, Eastern Washington, and Weber State all tied at the top. One of those teams will drop from the rank of unbeaten next weekend. One game behind is Cal Poly, two games behind is Montana, Northern Arizona, and Northern Colorado. Could chaos happen and there be six teams eligible for the top of the Big Sky heading into the final two weeks? Unlikely, but it’s the Big Sky, everything is possible.

Scores

Eastern Washington 41
Montana State 17

Sacramento State 19
Northern Colorado 27

North Dakota 28
Idaho State 21

Montana 34
Northern Arizona 45

Weber State 37
Southern Utah 36

UC-Davis 16
Cal Poly 21

Big Sky Player of the Week

Jadrian Clark, QB, Weber State. Clark was 31/52 for 436 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, plus 30 rushing yards in a comeback victory over Southern Utah.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gabrud, QB, Eastern Washington. 37/51, 520 yards, 4 touchdowns.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington. 13 receptions, 154 yards, 1 touchdown.
Emmanuel Butler, WR, Northern Arizona.  4 receptions, 75 yards.
Joe Protheroe, RB, Cal Poly. 27 carries, 95 yards.
Caleb Kidder, LB, Montana. 3 tackles, 1 tackle for loss.

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Eastern Washington
2. North Dakota
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana
5. Weber State
6. Northern Arizona
7. Northern Colorado
8. Southern Utah
9. Portland State
10. Idaho State
11. UC-Davis
12. Sacramento State
13. Montana State

Looking Ahead to Week 9

Weber State will head to North Dakota in a battle of Big Sky unbeatens. That should figure to be an important game in the Big Sky race. Another important game in the Big Sky race is Montana going to Eastern Washington. Northern Colorado will go north to take on Portland State. Southern Utah will also head north to take on Idaho State in Pocatello. To cap the week Cal Poly will go north to take on Sacramento State.

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

– I can most definitely say that Montana State, Sacramento State, UC-Davis, and Idaho State will not be invited to participate in the playoffs. #analysis

– The bloodbath in Bozeman wasn’t quite what I thought was going to happen. It was bad, but the scoreboard operators weren’t as busy as I thought they would be after watching the first quarter.

– Bruce Barnum did not get beat in the state of Utah this weekend.

– Montana caught NAU at the absolute worst possible team. Their offense is finding their groove behind Blake Kemp and are playing like the team that was picked to win the Big Sky. If only Jerome Sauers hadn’t started his October swoon in September this year.

– I saw a lot of people on the internet message boards this weekend bemoaning the Griz losing to a backup quarterback and the whole Griz coaching staff should be fired. Let’s get one thing straight.. Blake Kemp would start for all but about four or five Big Sky teams, and one of those teams is only because Kemp probably isn’t built to run Cal Poly’s triple option. Kemp was a good starter at East Carolina, and has played very well for the Jacks this year. He’s not your average schlumpy backup that’s drug in off the street.

– Being a schlumpy backup sounds like a pretty good gig if you can get it though.

– Southern Utah.. bros. You can’t be giving up 23 unanswered in the final quarter. That game was yours. I have no idea what happened down there, but man…

– This might be obvious to most, but Cooper Kupp does silly things when the football gets near him. Probably made a good decision to return to EWU for his senior year. His stock is still rising.

– The poor Griz secondary better figure itself out or they could be in for a long day against Eastern Washington and Cooper Kupp/Shaq Hill.

OVC: Week 8 Review and Power Rankings

Turnovers seemed to be the theme this weekend in the OVC as turnovers heavily affected 4 games in the conference.  Austin Peay fell to Mercer after turning the ball over 4 times, Tennessee Tech took advantage of a pick six to save their Homecoming by a margin of one point over the Redhawks, six turnovers helped the Murray State Racers topple EIU in Charleston, and EKU held JSU’s offense to just 3 points and STILL got outscored 24-7.  

 

So let’s dive into the chaos that took place in the OVC over the past weekend.

UT-Martin 6 Georgia State 31

 

UT-Martin went into the Georgia Dome trying to get the 2nd FBS upset in the OVC this season.  Unfortunately they didn’t fare as well in the Dome as they did in Hawaii.  At first it looked as if UT-Martin was in with a chance at the upset.  They went into halftime only down by a touchdown, 10-3.  However, the Skyhawks were plagued with turnovers in the second half when a fumble by Najee Ray and a intercepted pass from Gunnar Holcombe both went for touchdowns on back to back possessions and blew the game wide open in favor of the Panthers. Defensively the Skyhawks had a solid performance. They held the Panthers to just 285 yards and forced two turnovers.

 

With the loss UT-Martin falls to 4-4 overall (3-4 against D-I opponents) but they are still 3-1 in OVC play. It’s highly unlikely that UT-Martin makes the playoffs at this point but it’s still possible.  If they manage to win out they would finish at 8-4, with three of their losses being to FBS opponents and 7 Division-I wins, including a win over Jacksonville State.  Of course this is theoretical, but it’s fairly safe to assume UT-Martin can beat EKU, Murray State, and SEMO.

 

The Skyhawks will host Eastern Kentucky next weekend.

Austin Peay 41 Mercer 34

 

It’s amazing how many different ways Austin Peay can find to lose a game. Austin Peay held the Bears to 0-12 on third down, out gained them 500 yards to 358, averaged 4 yards a carry in the run game and still lost.   I guess that just goes to show how much turnovers and penalties can affect a game.

The matchup started off with a 12 play 86 yard touchdown drive by Mercer on their first possession of the game. Austin Peay answered back by fumbling the ball away after 7 plays.  After an exchange of punts the Bears put together a 7 play 56 yard touchdown drive and the Governors answered back with a touchdown drive of their own only to be denied on a two-point conversion attempt. After another exchange of punts Mercer managed to put another field goal on the board and that was immediately followed by another Governor fumble with lead to another Bear touchdown.  The Govs entered halftime down 24 to 6. The second half wasn’t much better.  Although the Govs were able to put 28 points on the board in the second half the Gov’s defense wasn’t able to keep the Bears out of the end zone and the four turnovers proved to be too much for the Governors to overcome.

 

At this point with the Govs falling to 0-7 the only thing there is to do is try to end the 23 game losing streak.  They are close and have the tools to end the streak, they just have to execute.

 

The Governors will hit the road and take on SEMO in Cape Girardeau this weekend.

Tennessee State 17 Vanderbilt 35

 

Tennessee State had a respectable showing in Nashville Saturday when they tried to play spoiler to the Commodore’s homecoming.  For most of the first half it looked as if the Tigers were going to claim the first SEC scalp for the OVC since JSU took down Ole Miss in 2010 as they led for 28 minutes of the first half and went into halftime only down 17-21.  Unfortunately big plays by Vanderbilt and turnovers by the offense proved to be too much for the Tigers to overcome and Tennessee State was shut out in the second half.  The Tigers finished with 285 yards of offense through the air and 125 on the ground on 23 carries (5.4 YPC) for a total of 410 yards of offense, 19 first downs, and two turnovers.

 

With the Tigers only falling to 5-2 there’s still a pretty good chance that the Tigers can make the playoffs.  If they win the rest of their OVC games they will finish at 9-2 overall.  The problem with that is they don’t have any good wins and they lost to only good FCS team they have played, EIU, and calling EIU a good team may be a stretch after their loss to Murray State.  If TSU wins out the  teams that TSU will have beaten currently have a combined record of 18-46.  Obviously their schedule has the strength of wet tissue paper but so does Sam Houston State and I’m willing to bet a 9-2 SHSU would make the playoffs this year.

 

Tennessee State gets back into OVC play when they travel to take on KD Humphries and the Racers this weekend.

Southeast Missouri State 20 Tennessee Tech 21

 

Tennessee Tech managed to win their Homecoming game thanks to a pick six thrown by SEMO’s Jesse Hosket early in the second quarter.  Michael Birdsong also added 170 yards and a touchdown to help the Golden Eagles edge SEMO.  Aside from one field goal by SEMO the second half of the game was entirely scoreless as TTU held on to their lead by a slim margin.  TTU’s lead came in part because of the pick six but also due to Ryan McCrum missing his 30 yard field goal attempt early in the fourth quarter than would have given SEMO the lead and eventually the win.

Aside from the pick six and the missed field goal it was a good day for the Redhawks. They racked up nearly 400 yards of offense with 182 yards rushing while holding Tennessee Tech to just 244 yards, their second lowest total of the season.  SEMO quarterback Jesse Hosket went 15 of 27 for 197 yards, a TD, and a pick while Birdsong continued to show his efficiency as a passer going 14 of 23 for 170 yard and a touchdown.

With 5 losses each for both Tennessee Tech and SEMO both are out of the playoff hunt entirely.  However, that doesn’t mean they still can’t shake up the playoffs chances for teams in the OVC.  With JSU traveling to SEMO in two weeks it’s entirely possible the Redhawks can get the upset everyone in the conference has been trying to get for almost three years if EIU doesn’t beat them to it this weekend. SEMO also has a chance to knock off 5-2 Tennessee State at the end of the regular season which could pose as a spoiler for the Tigers’ playoff hopes since a loss to SEMO to finish the season isn’t likely to sit well with the selection committee.  Tennessee Tech will get to take a shot at Tennessee State the week before SEMO, on November 12th in Nashville.

 

Tennessee Tech will travel this weekend to take on #18 FBS Tennessee in Knoxville and SEMO will host Austin Peay in Cape Girardeau.

Murray State 40 #25 Eastern Illinois 38

 

You know how I’ve been saying that KD Humphries won’t be enough to carry the Racers by himself?  Well the Racers decided to try something new today: run the ball well.  The Racers ran 38 times for 236 yards (6.2 YPC) and it helped open up the offense in a way the Racers have badly needed.  Humphries went 23 of 43 for 299 yards and a touchdown and the Racers put up 40 points behind a balanced attack.  The Racers were also able to capitalize on EIU’s mistakes.  19 of the Racers’ points came off of Panther turnovers and the 6 turnovers proved to be too much for the Panthers to overcome. Oh did I mention the Panthers had a 21-3 lead late in the first quarter? Yup, the Panthers managed to choke away a three score lead. Had the Panthers held onto the ball they likely would have won the game.  

 

The Racers may be out of contention for the playoffs but EIU isn’t, yet.  With this loss EIU has put themselves on a slippery slope where if they lose one more game they will be at 7-4.  Now if you think 7-4 and an FBS win is enough to make the playoffs you should go talk to some UND fans.  If EIU really wants to solidify a playoff spot they need to take down #2 Jacksonville State this weekend to pad their resume otherwise they might be disappointed come selection day.

 

The Panthers will take on the #2 ranked Gamecocks in Jacksonville as Murray State hosts Tennessee State.

#2 Jacksonville State 24 Eastern Kentucky 7

 

Losing games because of turnovers seemed to be the trend in the OVC this weekend and EKU exemplified that in spectacular fashion…

 

When most people think of the strengths of the Gamecocks most people will say “offensive juggernaut”.  And why not?  This is the team that set the record for the most lopsided semi-final game in FCS history last year in their 62-10 win over Sam Houston State and averaged over 500 yards a game last year…. Or is it?

 

JSU may have had 24 points and 350 yards against the Colonels but the Cocks scored 0 points on offense. ZERO. The Gamecocks’ offense hasn’t been held without a touchdown in 4 years.  The last time it happened was in 2012 in the Swamp when they got beat 23-0 by #6 Florida and EKU was the first FCS team to hold them without a touchdown since Bama State did it in ‘07.  The Gamecocks rode their defense to victory in Richmond as they recorded 5 interceptions and took three of them back for touchdowns, an FCS record. That’s not the only problem with the Gamecocks.  They also can’t kick field goals with any consistency and the penalties against them is borderline absurd.  If the Gamecocks can’t fix their kicking game, clean up the penalties, and get the offense back in gear they will be extremely disappointed in the playoffs.

 

That said, EKU played a great game defensively.  Head Coach Mark Elder gave the Colonels a great game plan to stop Eli Jenkins and executed it.  If the Colonels can get the quarterback issue straightened out the Colonels will be a very good team.

 

JSU will host #25 EIU this weekend and EKU will travel to take on the Skyhawks in Martin, Tennessee.

 

Power Rankings

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (6-1, 3-0 OVC)

Tennessee State Tigers (5-2, 2-1 OVC)

Eastern Illinois Panthers (5-3, 3-2 OVC)

UT-Martin Skyhawks (4-4, 3-1 OVC)

Eastern Kentucky Colonels (2-5, 1-3 OVC)

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (3-5, 3-3 OVC)

Southeast Missouri Redhawks (2-5, 2-2 OVC)

Murray State Racers (2-5, 2-2 OVC)

Austin Peay Governors (0-7, 0-5 OVC)