MVFC – Playoffs First Round in Review

MVFC LogoSorry about the lateness of this review article…holiday travel and illness conspired against me this week.

The one good thing about this going out a bit later though is that I am able to post info about the All-Conference teams that was released on Monday. The full MVFC All-Conference team is available here, with USD QB Chris Streveler winning the Offensive POY award, WIU LB Brett Taylor winning the Defensive POY award, and NDSU LB Jabril Cox receiving both the Newcomer of the Year and Freshman of the Year awards. NDSU HC Chris Klieman won the ‘Bruce Craddock’ Coach of the Year award. Overall, NDSU led the selections with 15 total players receiving season accolades. SDSU came in second with 12 players, then WIU with 11, UNI and YSU with 10 each, ILSU with 9, SIU and USD with 8 each, MSU with 7, and INSU with 5.

Also, the MVFC All-Newcomer team was announced Tuesday morning (Full list here). As previously mentioned, NDSU LB Jabril Cox won the Newcomer of the Year award. Teams with players on the All-Newcomer team include 5 for South Dakota, 3 each for Illinois State and Youngstown State, 2 each for Missouri State, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Northern Iowa, and 1 for North Dakota State.

The first round of the 2017 FCS Playoffs is in the books, with the MVFC going 2-1 in their three games.

Western Illinois (8-3) at Weber State (9-2)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
WIU 3 3 6 7 19
WSU 0 14 0 7 21

Quick Hits:

  • WIU – WR Jaelon Acklin had 116 yards receiving and 27 yards rushing. His final game as a Leatherneck was his 5th 100+ yard receiving game of the season.
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor led the team with 12 total tackles
  • WIU – LB Pete Swenson had a big day with 10 tackles, 3 for loss including 1 sack
  • WIU – PK Sam Crosa hit both FG attempts, from 44 and 45 yards out
  • WSU – QB Stefan Cantwell threw for 186 yards and 3 TDs and led the team in rushing with 43 yards
  • WSU – TE Andrew Vollert caught 8 passes for 112 yards and 1 TD
  • WSU – DB Jordan Preator led the Wildcats with 11 tackles, 1 for loss
  • WSU – P Jacob Demaio kicked 5 punts for an average of 48.4 yards per including a long of 58 and 2 within the 20 yard line

Western Illinois spent the first half putting up FGs which were answered by Weber State TDs. The WIU offense had a hard time getting out of their own way in the first bit of the game, with three false start penalties and an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty all in the first quarter. By halftime, the Leathernecks were down by a score of 14-6 against the top defense in the Big Sky. Late in the 3rd quarter, WIU finally got into the end zone with a TD run (2-pt attempt failed) to bring the score within 2. Early in the 4th, a very questionable roughing the passer penalty immediately followed by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty (both against WIU) moved WSU all the way from their own 49-yard line down to the WIU 21. On the very next play, WSU got their third TD of the day to go up 21-12. A few drives later, WIU was able to move down and get into the end zone again to pull back within 2 points, but with less than 5 minutes to go in the game, WSU was able to do what they’ve done quite a bit this year and run the ball just enough to keep picking up first downs and eat up the entire rest of the game clock to seal the playoff win in Weber State’s first home playoff game.

This was a matchup of two very tough and very similar teams. Most polls had these two teams in roughly the #9-#11 range, so they (along with maybe Stony Brook) were the toughest of the non-seeded teams. Weber State plays football like a MVFC team…honestly, from my perspective, they really looked like a slightly less disciplined or slightly less talented NDSU team. Very strong against the run, tough at the front lines, good run game that can pass effectively when necessary, but the ground game is their “bread and butter”.

Western Illinois finished their season at 8-4 overall.
Weber State is now 10-2 and will head down the road to take on 8th seeded in-state conference rival Southern Utah late Saturday night.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 3
It was: Wildcats by 2
Close battle…yup. Low scoring…yup. Leatherneck victory…?
Looks like home field advantage was more of a difference than I thought it’d be.

South Dakota (7-4) at Nicholls State (8-3)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
USD 7 10 14 7 38
NSU 0 7 14 10 31

Quick Hits:

  • USD – QB Chris Streveler showed why he was the MVFC Offensive POY with a 378 yard, 4 TD passing performance (1 INT) and 34 rushing yards
  • USD – WR Brandt Van Roekel led the team in receiving yards with 82 and 2 TDs
  • USD – DL Darin Greenfield had 11 tackles including 1 sack
  • USD – DB Phillip Powell had 10 tackles and 1 sack, but also forced the decisive fumble at their own 1 yard line to essentially win the game
  • NSU – QB Chase Fourcade threw for 232 yards, but gifted the Coyotes 3 INTs. He also ran for 89 yards
  • NSU – RB Kyran Irvin ran for 88 yards and 1 TD and RB Tahj Smith ran for 65 yards and 2 TDs
  • NSU – DB Corey Abraham led the team with 7 tackles and DB Austin Dickerson had an interception that he returned 43 yards for a TD
  • NSU – P Tyler St. Germain had 3 punts for an average of 55 yards per punt, including a long of 73 yards and 2 within the 20

The game was a little slow to get the scoring going, with USD picking up the first points with a few minutes left in the 1st quarter. Into the 2nd and they’d have another one before Nicholls State would get things rolling with a 43-yard INT returned for a TD. As time expired in the first half, USD kicked a 39-yd FG to take a 17-7 lead into the locker room at halftime. In the second half, NSU was the one to score first with their own TD, but was answered by a Coyote TD on a 47-yard pass a couple of minutes later. Nicholls ground out another TD with 40 seconds left in the 3rd, only to be responded to “in kind” with a 75-yard TD pass on the next play from scrimmage to keep USD ahead by 10. The Colonels defense buckled down in the 4th, while their offense put together a TD drive and a FG in the first half of the 4th to tie the game up at 31-all. The Coyotes had one more solid drive for a TD to go ahead by 7. Nicholls was then able to drive down the field again, starting at their own 45-yard line, and at one point, converted a 4th and 3 at the South Dakota 4 yard line to make it 1st and goal at the 1 (with a TD needed to tie the game and likely head to OT). But then, on the 1st and goal run, USD DB Phillip Powell stripped RB Kyran Irvin of the ball and it was recovered by USD DB Andrew Gray in the end zone for a touchback. From there, South Dakota was able to kneel a few times to run out the clock and come away with the 38-31 victory.

I’m personally very impressed with the ability of the Colonels’ offense to keep pace with the Coyotes and keep it a much closer game than myself (and many MVFC fans) expected.

South Dakota moves to 8-4 on the season and will play Saturday afternoon at the #6 seed, Sam Houston State.
Nicholls State ends their season at 8-4

My Pick in Review:

I said: Coyotes by 14
It was: Coyotes by 7
Like I said, I underestimated NSU’s ability to move the ball against USD, especially considering that 7 point differential was very nearly a tie game going to OT.

Monmouth (9-2) at Northern Iowa (7-4)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
MU 0 0 0 7 7
UNI 14 19 13 0 46

Quick Hits:

  • MU – WR Reggie White Jr. (son of former NFL D-Lineman Reggie White…no, not that Reggie White, this Reggie White) led the Hawks with 81 receiving yards
  • MU – DB Mike Basile led the team with 13 tackles and DB Agbai Iroha had 11 with 1 sack and 2 pass breakups
  • MU – WR Lonnie Moore IV only had 25 yards receiving, but had the only score for Monmouth on a 19-yard TD pass in the 4th quarter
  • UNI – QB Eli Dunne returned from being out for a couple of weeks due to injury to throw for 260 yards and 4 TDs
  • UNI – RB J’Veyon Browning ran for 136 yards and RB Marcus Weymiller had 74
  • UNI – WR Daurice Fountain caught 139 yards on 10 catches with 2 TDs
  • UNI – DB Korby Sander led the team with 8 tackles, while LB Jared Farley only had 3 tackles but also a 1-yard TD reception

Hey Panthers, hasn’t anyone ever told you not to play with your food before you eat it? I’m pretty sure that’s the best way to describe putting in your top LB as essentially a TE and getting him a TD catch in the first quarter. Anyway, this was one of those games where one team is very obviously outmatched. UNI had 2 TDs in the first quarter (including LB Farley’s 1-handed TD catch), 2 more TDs and 2 FGs in the 2nd to go into halftime up 33-0. The 3rd quarter, the Panthers continued to pile on with a couple more FGs and a TD run near the end to go up 46-0 against the #2 team in the Big South. Finally, with 8 minutes left in the 4th, MU was able to pick up their first score of the game on a 19-yard pass, although something tells me that UNI had their second string in their by then. Overall just a dominating performance for a playoff game.

Monmouth University finishes their season at 9-3.
Northern Iowa moves to 8-4 overall and is set for a conference rematch at #5 seed South Dakota State next weekend.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Panthers by 20
It was: Panthers by 39
Wow, ok then. MU was averaging 35 points per game…but apparently against fairly mediocre defenses…or they just forgot their defense back in NJ.

So that’s it for the games from the first round of the playoffs. Now each of last weeks winners gets to head on the road to face off against a Top 8 seeded team. Three of those games will involve MVFC teams: a conference rematch of Northern Iowa and South Dakota State at 2 PM (Central) in Brookings, South Dakota again heading “down south” to face off with Sam Houston State (also at 2 PM), and a half hour later (2:30 PM), Pioneer League champion San Diego fresh off the heels of their big win over Northern Arizona (theirs and the Pioneer League’s second ever playoff wins) will face a VERY tough challenge against North Dakota State in Fargo. San Diego at NDSU will be a rematch of last year’s second-round game, where the Bison steamrolled San Diego 45-7…so we’ll see if history repeats itself next Saturday.

FCS Playoffs 1st Round: Lehigh at #9 Stony Brook

Lehigh (5-6) at #9 Stony Brook (9-2) – Nov. 25th 2 PM LaValle Stadium Stony Brook, NY

Live Streaming – ESPN3/Watch ESPN APP

For only the second time ever, Lehigh (Patriot League) and Stony Brook (CAA) will square off on the gridiron. The stakes this time around will be far higher on Saturday than they were on September 2, 2004 when these two schools met for the first time. That’s when a Top 25 Lehigh squad smothered the upstart Seawolves 25-2 in Bethlehem, PA. This time around the two meet in the 1st round of the FCS Playoffs with Stony Brook being the prohibitive favorite at home. The winner will get the opportunity to play defending national champion James Madison next Saturday in Harrisonburg, VA. Stony Brook did not face the Dukes in the regular season so they would love nothing more than to prove the best team in the CAA resides on Long Island.

In order for the Seawolves to advance they must stick to the formula that got them here. For most of the year Stony Brook has been efficient on offense and played sound, disciplined defense. Their offensive numbers (180 ypg passing/149 ypg rushing) certainly don’t jump off the page but they only tell part of the story. Coach Priore values the running game, timely passing and not beating yourself. The Seawolves have deployed a hard-nosed, physical brand of football (some might call boring) that has resulted in 3 FCS Playoff appearances under his watch.

Stony Brook has two very capable running backs in Stacy Bedell (694 yards 7 TDs) and Donald Liotine (561 yards 8 TDs). Bedell is nursing an injury heading into this week so there is some concern as to how effective he’ll be. If he is limited expect to see Jordan Gowins get significant playing time. Whoever lines up in the Seawolve’s backfield will find plenty of running room against Lehigh’s 116th ranked rush defense (232 ypg allowed). The Mountain Hawks will need their front 7 to play at a much higher level than they’ve shown so far this season. Stony Brook has a big offensive line (averages 6’4 312 lbs) that will lean on the Lehigh defense for 60 minutes. The Mountain Hawks will need big individual performances from DT Tyler Cavenas and LB Mark Walker.

Stony Brook quarterback Joe Carbone (181 ypg 20 TDs 3 INTs) is the perfect signal caller for Priore’s ball control offense. Carbone can make plays with his arm when he has to but his decision making and understanding of situational football is hit primary asset. His favorite target this year has been 1st Team CAA selection Ray Bolden (66 rec 780 yards 9 TDs). Bolden was banged up against Maine, and like Bedell, his status for Saturday’s game remains a bit cloudy. If he’s not 100% or can’t go all together that will be a significant blow. Lehigh’s pass defense has had its share of breakdowns but its play has been better than the stats suggest (232 ypg 84th in FCS). The inability to stop the run and the lack of a pass rush has often put the secondary in tough spots. As a result, opponents have hit on big plays from time to time. The Mountain Hawks possess a capable, experienced defensive backfield that should fair reasonably well against the Stony Brook passing attack.

The reason Lehigh feels like they can pull off the upset is their offense. There’s no question the Mountain Hawks are led by one of the most explosive “O’s” (36.5 ppg, 9th in FCS) in all of FCS. Quarterback Brad Mayes (323 ypg 28 TDs 12 INTs) can sling it as well as anyone in FCS if defenses don’t disrupt his rhythm. Mayes has two exceptional senior targets at wide receiver to work with in Troy Pelletier (95 rec 1,198 yards 9 TDs) and Gatlin Casey (49 rec 747 yards 11 TDs). Then there’s the Patriot League Offensive Player of the Year Dom Bragalone (1,131 yards 18 TDs) at running back.

The Seawolve’s defense has been good all year (19.4 ppg allowed, 22nd in FCS) but they haven’t faced an offense this explosive since their season opener against FBS South Florida. The key will be trying to take away Bragalone and force Mayes to beat them through the air. NT Ousmane Camara and LB Shayne Lawless will need to bring their “A” game in order for Stony Brook to control the trenches against a veteran Lehigh O-Line. Stony Brook has the type of defense that is built to contain the Lehigh offense as long they avoid giving up the big plays. Lehigh has been prone to mistakes when they’ve been forced to grind out long drives or play from behind. The Mountain Hawks prefer to use tempo which puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses both mentally and physically.

The contrasting styles are what make this game so interesting. Stony Brook wants to insert their physical will, avoid mistakes and take advantage of their opponent’s hiccups in order to capture victory. Lehigh on the other hand needs a track meet to overcome their historically bad defense. The Mountain Hawks absolutely have the offense to make this a competitive game but their front 7 on defense is going to be their Achilles heel. As long as Stony Brook avoids costly turnovers and scores touchdowns instead of field goals they’ll get their shot at the defending national champions.

Prediction: Stony Brook 42 Lehigh 31

Patriot League: Week 12 Review and Power Rankings

The 2017 Patriot League football season concluded with two schools, Colgate and Lehigh, staking claim to the championship. The Raiders were able to overcome a sluggish start against Georgetown by scoring 35 straight points to earn a share of their 9th title. Lehigh also finished their game strong to sneak past rival Lafayette in the 153rd edition of “The Rivalry”. The win earned the Mountain Hawks a bid into the FCS playoffs for the second straight year. Fordham outlasted Bucknell in the other game over the weekend. Chase Edmonds went out in style in his final college start. The Patriot League’s all-time leading rusher finished his college career with a 185 yard and 2 TD performance against the Bison.

Colgate 35 Georgetown 10

Despite an auspicious start, Colgate (7-4, 5-1) was able to easily take care of Georgetown (1-10, 0-6) to capture a share of their 9th Patriot League Championship. With the dominating win, the Raiders ended up out scoring their final 5 Patriot League opponents 185-32. Grant Breneman (1,594 yards 18 TDs 5 INTs, 401 yards rushing 6 TDs) led a well balanced offense and the defense smothered teams during Colgate’s dominant finish. A slow start to the season is what ultimately cost the Raiders the outright Patriot League Title and/or a chance at an at-large bid in the playoffs. As it is, Colgate will return a wealth of talent and experience in 2018 from a 7-4 team, league co-championship squad.

Georgetown on the other hand will enter next year’s campaign riding a 15 game conference losing streak and a 10 game overall losing skid. The Hoya offense that averaged an anemic 12.5 points this season (5th worst average in FCS) is the main culprit for the team’s struggles. Georgetown managed just 6 first downs and 140 yards of total offense against Colgate. Even the return of veteran quarterback Tim Barnes (8-20 72 yards) on Senior Day could not spark the “O”. The longest drive Georgetown put together during the course of the game, 5 plays 39 yards, was the last one of the game. Five out of the Hoyas 11 drives during the game ended with a 3 and out. As a result of so many short possessions their defense eventually wilts over the course of 60 minutes.

Prior to running out of gas against the Raiders, the Georgetown defense was able to make their presence felt immediately. On Colgate’s first play from scrimmage Kristian Tate pick sixed Grant Breneman (16-23 137 yards 3 TDs 1 INT) to give the Hoyas a 7-0 lead less than 10 seconds into the game.  Georgetown extended their lead to 10-0 on their first offensive possession thanks to Brad Hurst’s 36 yard FG. Colgate’s offense would answer with a methodical 13 play 68 yard TD drive that took nearly 8 minutes off the game clock. James Holland (13 carries 57 yards 1 TD) finished the drive with a 5 yard run to pay dirt.

The Raiders would take their first lead of the game the next time they touched the ball. This time it was Breneman connecting with Thomas Ives for a short 2 yard TD toss to give Colgate a 14-10 lead with 11:10 left in the 2nd quarter. Just before half, Breneman would find Ives (5 rec 45 yards 3 TDs) for another score to give Colgate a 21-10 lead. Ives added a spectacular one handed catch in the corner of the end zone late in the second half for his 3rd TD of the game! The play earned the junior WR a spot in ESPN’s Top 10 list and the Colgate record books (3 TD receptions ties school record).

Fordham 20 Bucknell 9

Fordham’s (4-7, 3-3) win over Bucknell (5-6, 2-4) had to be a bit bittersweet for the Rams on Senior Day in Bronx. The win is certainly a nice capper to the year but watching Chase Edmonds run for 185 yards and 2 TDs for one final time reminded fans of what could have been for Fordham this year. Edmonds entered the season within shouting distance of Adrian Peterson’s (Georgia Southern) career FCS rushing mark and was the preseason favorite to win the Payton Award as the subdivision’s best player. As things played out, injuries would derail Edmonds march towards history and greatly handicap Fordham’s overall performance. The Ram’s run of 5 straight winning seasons (4 with at least 8 wins) came to a crashing halt but there’s no doubt Edmonds and his teammates provided the home crowd one last great memory.

Bucknell was not able to the spoil Edmonds going away party due to their offense’s inability to score touchdowns. John Burdick’s three field goals were enough to keep the Bison ahead for the first 50 minutes of play but in the end the Rams three trips to the end zone won the game. It was the 4th time out of 6 league games the Bison failed to score a touchdown. The most points Bucknell posted in a Patriot League contest was 21 in a three touchdown loss to Lehigh. As has been the case for much of the year, DeFloria and Freshnock failed to combine for a 100 yards and the quarterback play lack efficiency. Bison quarterback John Chiarolanzio (17-43 162 yards) also struggled to gain traction in the loss. Until the offense can complement Bison’s usually stout defense, Bucknell’s Patriot League Title drought (1996) will continue.

The only scoring in the first half came via a 65 yard Edmond’s touchdown run midway through the 2nd quarter. After both defenses controlled play during the first 30 minutes of play, things would finally open up after halftime. Burdick’s 27 yard FG finally got Bucknell on the board with 3:41 left in the 3rd quarter following a Fordham fumble deep in their own territory. Burdick would tack on two more field goals early in the 4th quarter to give Bucknell a 9-7 lead. The Bison would hold onto the lead until Austin Longi broke their back with 90 yard punt return for a touchdown midway through the final quarter. Following a 4th down stop by the Ram “D”, Edmonds broke loose for another long touchdown (55 yards) with just over 3 minutes left in regulation to put the game on ice.

Lehigh 38 Lafayette 31

Lehigh’s (5-6, 5-1) 7 point win over their arch rival Lafayette (3-8, 3-3) was basically a microcosm of the Mountain Hawks season that ended with a share of the Patriot League Championship and a spot in the FCS Playoffs. Lehigh’s performance was not always pretty, (turnovers and a porous rush D reared their ugly head again) but in the end it was just good enough to get the job done. The most impressive aspect of the win might be how the defense played in the second half. Mayes, Bragalone, Pelletier were once again great on “O” but it was the Lehigh “D” that held Lafayette to 23 total yards over the final 30 minutes. Offense won Lehigh 5 games this year but the second half proved that defense does indeed win championships.

Speaking of defense, Lafayette’s league leading unit was shredded (495 yards allowed) for much of the game. The Leopard’s “D” struggled to get pressure on Mayes for much of the game which allowed the junior quarterback to carve up the secondary. The much anticipated battle between Leopard CB Phillip Parham and the Lehigh wide receivers went in favor of the Brown and White. Lafayette’s defense also failed to keep Dominic Bragalone from racking up another 100+ yard rushing game.

Surprisingly, it was the much malinged Leopard offense that gave Lafayette a 10 point lead at half. John Garrett came out with a creative gameplan in first half that worked with great success. Lafayette used several different formations to keep the Lehigh defense off balance. Leopard WR Nick Pearson (6 rushed 95 yards 1 TD) came out of nowhere to steal the show during the first 30 minutes of play with several big runs around the edge. For whatever reason, Garrett and his staff opted for a much more conservative approach on offense in the second half.

Lafayette’s aggressive play calling in the first half paid dividends right away. Pearson’s 1 yard touchdown run on a jet sweep capped a very impressive 10 play 73 yard drive on the Leopard’s opening possession of the game. It wouldn’t take Lehigh long to respond however. After a Gatlin Casey fumble inside the Lafayette 10 yard line was overturned by replay, Dom Bragalone (29 carries 113 yards 2 TDs) powered into the end zone from 5 yards out to tie the game at 7 with 6:30 remaining in the 1st quarter. Lehigh would take a 14-7 lead on their next possession thanks to a 5 yard Troy Pelletier (9 rec 109 yards 2 TDs) TD reception.

Following a Lehigh muffed punt, Lafayette would tie the game at 14 early in the 2nd quarter. Selwyn Simpson bulldozed his was passed the goal line from 5 yards away for the score. Lehigh’s Marc Raye-Redmon would then fumble the ensuing kickoff to once against set up the Leopard offense deep in Mountain Hawk territory. That would lead to a 33 yard Jeff Kordenbrock FG and 17-14 Lafayette lead. C.J. Amil’s 6 yard TD run on Lafayette’s next possession would give Lafayette a 24-14 halftime lead.

Lehigh would close the gap to 24-21 with 7:12 left in the 3rd quarter on Bragalone’s second TD run of the game. That setup C.J Amil’s 94 yard kickoff return touchdown that pushed the Leopard lead back to 10 points. That would be the last impact pay for Lafayette. Following Amil’s return, Lehigh dominated the rest of the game. The Mountain Hawks would score the game’s final 17 points to escape with the win and the championship.

Up Next: Lehigh heads to Long Island to play Stony Brook (9-2) in the 1st Round of the FCS Playoffs.

Power Rankings

  1. Colgate – The Raiders finish the season with a share of the Patriot League Title and the conference’s only winning record. Expectations will be high in Hamilton in 2018 given how much Colgate returns on both sides of the ball.
  2. Lehigh – The 2017 season didn’t go to script but the Mountain Hawks managed to capture a share of their 12th Patriot League Title and a chance for some playoff redemption.
  3. Fordham – With a healthy Chase Edmonds this would have been much different team and season. As it is, Coach Breiner faces a pretty hefty rebuilding job for 2018.
  4. Lafayette – With a championship in sight and fate in their hands, the season ended with 2 disappointing losses. Coach Garrett must find a way to put an end to the Leopard’s streak of 8 straight losing seasons in 2018.
  5. Holy Cross – Peter Pujals’s career certainly did not end the way he wanted but that doesn’t take away from his stellar individual career. It will be a new era of Holy Cross football in 2018 with a new head coach and quarterback.
  6. Bucknell – Bucknell could not carry the early season momentum they built up into league play. The offense completely fell apart down stretch which is why the Bison finished under .500 in the Patriot League and overall.
  7. Georgetown – 15 straight Patriot League, 10 consecutive losses overall; those are the only two stats that matter as Coach Sgarlatta turns the page to 2018. The Hoyas desperately need to improve the offense if those ugly streaks are going to end.

The FCS Wedge – 2017-1121 – WEEK 12 REVIEW

This week is a damn good listen. The guys go over the big games that dictated a lot of playoff activity. They move along to give an honest opinion of what this year’s FCS Selection Committee did with the field. It is not a ringing endorsement of the scattered thought processes that went into this field in 2017.

So listen up.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC – Playoffs Round 1 Preview

MVFC LogoIt’s playoff time…er…well, for half of the conference anyway. The other half…they get to spend a bit more time with their families this Thanksgiving break. Since two of the MVFC teams are seeds and 3 are at-large teams, we’ve got 3 games in the first round involving MVFC teams. Here’s the full playoff bracket if you’d like to see what everyone is up to.

I’m going to have to change up the format a little bit and do something more like a stats comparison. In most cases, there’s very little in the way of direct comparisons that can be made between the teams (like with common opponents or something), so I’m kinda having to go off of season stats. Stats aren’t the be-all and end-all of comparisons though. You do have to consider who they played, so I’ll also be listing the strength of schedule rankings for both Sagarin (out of all D1 football programs) and Massey (just FCS programs).

Disclaimer: For those of you who don’t know me very well, I’ve been a Western Illinois fan for over 20 years. I will do my best to be relatively unbiased, but I know that it’s impossible for me to be completely so. You’ll also notice that I generally will write a little more about my Leathernecks due to my familiarity with the team.

So, here are the games this week:
3:00 PM – Western Illinois (8-3) at Weber State (9-2)
3:00 PM – South Dakota (7-4) at Nicholls (8-3)
4:00 PM – Monmouth (9-2) at Northern Iowa (7-4)
All games listed in Central time and all games on ESPN3.
(guess you’ll have to bust out multiple devices if you want to watch all three at the same time).

Western Illinois (8-3) at Weber State (9-2)

This Season

  • Western Illinois went 8-3 overall with a 5-3 conference record. They were 3-0 OOC, all on the road, with wins at FBS* Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt), Tennessee Tech (OVC), and Northern Arizona (Big Sky). They were 2-2 at Hanson Field and 6-1 on the road. WIU’s schedule was ranked 131st in DI by Sagarin and 4th in the FCS by Massey.
  • Weber State finished their season at 9-2 overall with a 7-1 conference record. They went went 2-1 OOC, with wins over NAIA Montana Western and Sacramento State (Big Sky, but didn’t count as a conference game) and a 13-point loss at FBS California (Pac 12). They went 4-1 at home and 5-1 on the road this season. WSU’s schedule was ranked 151st in DI by Sagarin and 17th in the FCS by Massey.

History:
The Leathernecks and Wildcats have played twice in the past as part of a H&H series back in ’75/’76. WIU won the first game at WSU 19-10 and the second one 21-19 in Macomb, so Western Illinois holds the series lead 2-0. Western Illinois will be making their 11th postseason appearance, while Weber State will be making their 6th appearance and their first time hosting a playoff game.

As I said, I’m going to change up the format a little bit, so first off, lets look at how things might go down when Western Illinois has the ball. The Leathernecks put up just over 405 ypg in their games this season (39th in the FCS) and scored at a rate of 35.5 ppg (13th). 160 ypg of that came on the ground (52nd) and just under 245 ypg through the air (27th). The WIU offense allows 5.36 tackles for loss per game (32nd) and has turned the ball over 11 times this season (10th).
The Wildcats defense allowed 338 ypg (37th) and 16.6 ppg (11th), with 196.5 ypg allowed to opposing run games (23rd) and 220.9 ypg to passes (67th). They get 7.1 tackles for loss per game (31st) and have nabbed the ball away 25 times this season (13th).
So, WSU has a good run defense and what I’d consider a mid-range pass defense, while WIU has a mid-range run game and pretty decent passing game. This makes me think that WIU might have a bit of trouble running the ball against the Wildcats, but should be able to get solid yardage through the air. WIU doesn’t turn the ball over much although WSU can create turnovers fairly well.

Flipping things around, when Weber State has the ball, they put up 408.5 ypg (37th in the FCS) and scored at a rate of 35.7 ppg (12th). 196.5 ypg of that came on the ground (25th) and 212 ypg through the air (57th). Their offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has lost the ball 15 times so far (33rd)
The Leathernecks defense allowed 343.2 ypg (39th) and 22.3 ppg (36th) with 160.3 ypg allowed against the run (24th) and 223.3 ypg allowed through the air (72nd). They get 8 tackles for loss per game (14th) and have forced 26 turnovers this season (6th)
Here WIU has a good run defense and mid-level pass defense, while WSU has a good running offense and mid-level passing offense, which points towards the Wildcats being fairly even offensively, probably relying a little more heavily on the ground game than WIU will be. WIU is better at getting tackles for loss than WSU is at preventing them and is very good at forcing turnovers, something the Wildcats have struggled with somewhat this season.

On special teams, Weber State has a much better punter and punt return defense, but WIU has a better punt returner. The kickoffs and kick returns are much closer though.
WIU has a better turnover margin, has a few more sacks on other teams, and allowes fewer sacks on themselves. The Wildcats have the TOP advantage and don’t get penalized as much.

Honestly, just looking at the stats, these two teams form one of the most even matchups I’ve ever seen between football teams. Even the predictions that I’ve seen bear that out…Massey has WIU by essentially 1 point, Vegas says it’s dead even…I saw another site that gave WSU the nod by 1 point. My view on things is that usually predictions take into account something along the lines of a 3 point home field advantage. Thing is, I’ve seen Western Illinois play in 3 of the 4 home games and 2 of the road games. They actually get pumped up more when they play on the road. They really thrive on taking a loud opposing crowd and completely shutting them up…even more so than they do in front of a home “crowd”. Because of that, I think that home field advantage doesn’t really matter in most situations for the Leathernecks, so you can throw those 3 points out the window. My prediction is that Western Illinois gets by the Wildcats by just about that 3 point margin and moves on to another game in Utah…this time in Cedar City at Southern Utah.

South Dakota (7-4) at Nicholls State (8-3)

This Season

  • South Dakota went 7-4 overall with a 4-4 conference record. They were 3-0 OOC with wins over Drake (Pioneer), FBS Bowling Green (MAC) and North Dakota (Big Sky). They were 4-1 at the DakotaDome and 3-3 when playing on the road. USD’s schedule was ranked 125th in DI by Sagarin and 3rd in the FCS by Massey.
  • Nicholls State went 8-3 overall with a 7-2 record in the Southland. They were 1-1 OOC with a 24-14 loss to FBS Texas A&M (SEC) and a win over Prairie View A&M (SWAC). They were 5-0 at John L. Guidry Stadium and 3-3 when playing on the road. NSU’s schedule is ranked 213th in DI by Sagarin and 74th in the FCS by Massey.

History:
The Coyotes and Colonels have never met before on the football field. It will be Nicholls’ 4th appearance in the playoffs and their first time hosting, while this is the first time that South Dakota has made it to the FCS playoffs.

We’ll start by taking a look at the numbers. When South Dakota has the ball, they put up 519 ypg (2nd in the FCS) and 37.8 ppg (5th). On the ground, they accumulate 207 ypg (22nd) and through the air, 312 ypg (9th). USD’s O-Line is allowing 5.91 tackles for loss per game (45th) and their offense has lost 10 turnovers this season (6th).
The Nicholls State defense allows 343 ypg (39th) and 24 ppg (49th). Of those yards, 152 ypg are on the ground (62nd) and 190 are through the air (33rd). They are averaging 8 tackles for loss per game (12th) and have created 13 turnovers this season (104th).
In this situation, South Dakota has one of the better offenses in the entire FCS…assuming QB Chris Streveler is something close to fully healthy (he’s been banged up a lot over the last few weeks). He is a significant portion of the Coyote offense, so if he’s not doing well, things could get a little dicey for them. Assuming he’s relatively ok, USD will likely have a fairly balanced offense. Their run game is decent and NSU’s run defense is relatively mediocre, meanwhile the Coyotes’ passing attack is in the top 10 of the FCS, but NSU’s pass defense isn’t ranked too badly either.

On the other side, Nicholls State comes in putting up 395 ypg (45th) and 28 ppg (44th). They run for 196 ypg (26th) and pass for 199 ypg (69th). Their offensive line allows 4.73 tackles for loss per game (18th) and the offense has lost 23 turnovers (93rd).
USD’s defense allows 382 ypg (76th) and 23.5 ppg (42nd). Their run defense allows 137 ypg (41st) and pass defense 245 ypg (97th). They get 8.5 tackles for loss per game (3rd) and have gained 17 turnovers (72nd).
So, the Coyotes do seem to allow quite a few yards, especially against the pass. However, NSU’s strength is their run game, which is USD’s defensive strength. One big difference is that NSU has lost quite a few turnovers this season. USD isn’t great at gaining turnovers, especially with their best DB having been suspended (kicked off maybe?) from the team, but might be able to get one or two.

Obviously anything is possible in the playoffs…upsets happen every year, but I don’t really see this one being close unless Chris Streveler has to sit out for a significant portion of the game. He’s the type of QB who can turn a broken play into a first down on a regular basis, either by running the ball himself (he’s not easy to take down) or by scrambling and finding a receiver (he can make very accurate throws on the run while being pressured). I think he’ll probably be a bit too much for the Colonels defense to handle and the Coyotes will come away with about a 14-point victory and head over to Sam Houston State in a week.

Monmouth (9-2) at Northern Iowa (7-4)

This Season:

  • Monmouth University went 9-2 this season, with a 4-1 record in the Big South. OOC, they went 5-1, with wins over Lafayette, Lehigh, Hampton, Bucknell, and Holy Cross, and a loss to Albany. They were 5-0 at newly-renovated Kessler Stadium and 4-2 on the road. The Hawks’ schedule was ranked 215th in DI by Sagarin and 80th in the FCS by Massey.
  • Northern Iowa finished their regular season at 7-4 with a 6-2 conference record. OOC, they went 1-2 with a 42-24 loss to FBS Iowa State (Big 12), an OT 45-38 win over Cal Poly (Big Sky) and a 24-21 loss at eventual Big Sky Conference Champ Southern Utah. They were 4-1 at the UNI-Dome and 3-3 when traveling. The Panthers’ schedule is listed at 98th in DI by Sagarin and the #1 toughest schedule in the FCS by Massey.

History: This is the first time that Northern Iowa and Monmouth University have played each other. This is Monmouth’s first appearance in the playoffs and Northern Iowa’s 19th.

On with the digits…Northern Iowa’s offense marches down the field at a rate of 338 ypg (77th in the FCS) and puts up 28.5 ppg (41st). They get 111 ypg on the ground (93rd) and 227 ypg through the air (40th). The Panther offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has lost 20 turnovers this season (79th).
Monmouth’s defense has been holding teams to 380 ypg (74th) and 25.9 ppg (63rd). They only allow 131 ypg on the ground (35th) but give up 249 ypg through the air (102nd). They have gotten 5.5 tackles for loss per game (85th) and forced 17 turnovers this season (72nd).
So, UNI has a halfway decent passing game and Monmouth (do they go by MU?) is in the bottom 20 for pass defense. I see the Panthers have a pretty big day passing the ball. Monmouth has been pretty decent at stopping RBs, but I’m not sure they’ve faced a RB quite like UNI’s Marcus Weymiller.

When the Hawks have the ball, the put up 413 total ypg (33rd) and 35.2 ppg (15th). They get 210 ypg of that on the ground (20th) and 202 ypg through the air (65th). Their offense allows 6.18 tackles for loss per game (57th) and has turned the ball over 18 times (55th).
The Panthers’ defense allows 373 ypg (63rd) and 23.9 ppg (45th), with 130 ypg allowed against the run (34th) and 249 ypg through the air (93rd). They get 5.5 tackles for loss per game (92nd) and have forced 24 turnovers this season (36th).
In this case, Monmouth’s offensive strength is running the ball, but that also happens to be UNI’s defensive strength. I’m honestly surprised UNI’s tackles for loss is so low, because LB Ricky Neal is one of the best players I’ve seen this year at getting pressure on a QB. He’s leading the conference in sacks and is #2 in tackles for loss.

This is one of those situations where the pure stats don’t really tell the full story. According to most strength of schedule rankings, UNI has played a tougher schedule than all of the FCS…and really…a good chunk of FBS G5 teams, whereas Monmouth has played a schedule that is rated in the bottom 20% of the FCS. Another issue is likely going to be crowd noise. Monmouth has played in front of 5k or more fans three times this season…at Albany (6,384) which was a loss, at Hampton (5,123)…a win, and and at Kennesaw State (6,808)…a big loss. Meanwhile, UNI has averaged over 10.8k fans per home game this season, and while it’s no Fargodome or Wa-Griz Stadium, I can attest from personal experience that the UNI-Dome can get very loud at times. If the Hawks want to do well at the Dome, they’ll need to have really practiced non-verbal counts and cues. I think overall the Panther defense will make things very difficult for the Hawks and UNI will come away with about a 20 point win and move on to face South Dakota State again next weekend.

Big Sky Round Up Week 12

The FCS playoff field has been decided. Three Big Sky teams will be making an appearance in the field of 24. Northern Arizona, Southern Utah, and Weber State will represent the conference in the annual tournament. Reigning FCS champion James Madison collected the overall one seed while North Dakota State will be the two seed on the other side of the bracket.

Southern Utah won the auto-bid as the conference champion. The Thunderbirds were 7-1 in conference play, their only loss coming to Sacramento State. Southern Utah will have the seven seed in the tournament. Their second round opponent will be the winner of Weber State and Western Illinois. The Wildcats will be hosting their first ever playoff game in Ogden this week. Northern Arizona will be hosting Pioneer league champion San Diego. The winner of that game will move on to face North Dakota State in Fargo.

Left out of the playoff field were Eastern Washington, Montana, and Sacramento State. All three teams could have made a case for being in the playoff field, but alas, other teams were picked ahead of them. Eastern Washington athletic director Bill Chaves had some words for the playoff selection committee in a series of tweets on Sunday morning. Assistant Big Sky Commissioner Jon Kasper also had a few choice Tweets for the playoff committee.

Onto the week’s action..

In the annual Treasure State Super Bowl Montana State hosted rival Montana. The Cats and Griz have been battling for 118 years.  Montana could not get the best of the Bobcats in this one. Montana State quarterback Chris Murray rushed for 98 yards and rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown. In total the Bobcats rushed for 322 yards and four touchdowns in their Saturday win. Montana collected 326 yards through the air, but a costly Gresch Jensen fumble deep on Montana territory all but sealed the deal for the Cats. On Monday Montana athletic director, and Skyline Sports first reporting, that Bob Stitt’s contract at Montana would not be renewed and a coaching search would ensue.

Cal Poly and Northern Colorado finished their seasons with the Big Sky’s weekly pillow fight. The Mustangs showed true pillow fight material by giving up 42 straight points to Northern Colorado. Northern Colorado quarterback Conor Regan, playing in relief for Jacob Knipp, threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Bears. Kicker Collin Root scored 10 of the Bears’ 42 points. Pretty good day for a kicker. Cal Poly will likely try to forget this season as soon as possible, one of their worst since joining the Big Sky Conference. The Mustangs finished 1-10 on the season. The Bears finished a respectable 3-7.

Weber State emphatically made their case for a playoff spot, and a chance for a conference title if Southern Utah faltered, on Saturday. The Wildcats flat whipped the Idaho State Bengals 35-7 on Ogden on Saturday. As a reward they will get to host a playoff game. Stefan Cantwell accounted for 337 yards and four touchdowns. Idaho State didn’t account for that many yards as a team, if that’s any indicator how their Saturday went. The Wildcats will host Western Illinois on Saturday.

Northern Arizona and Southern Utah did battle in their final game of the season in Cedar City. If Northern Arizona wanted to get off of the bubble and send Jerome Souers out on a winning note they were going to have beat the Thunderbirds. They did neither of those. Southern Utah won by 28 points and wrapped up the Big Sky’s auto-bid to the playoffs. Patrick Tyler had 238 yards passing and 31 yards rushing with two touchdowns. In a strange turn of events, even with NAU losing and getting a playoff spot, the University announced on Monday afternoon that the Lumberjacks would retain Jerome Souers for next season. Also announced was Andy Thompson would be named assistant head coach, an obvious succession plan to Souers. Northern Arizona will host San Diego on Saturday, while Southern Utah will wait out the winner of Weber State and Western Illinois.

In the annual Causeway Classic the Sacramento State Hornets hosted the UC Davis Aggies. Sacramento State somehow stayed within grasp of the playoff field. The Hornets and Aggies racked up an impressive amount of yards in a game that didn’t particular matter for anything important other than central valley bragging rights. They combined for 1250 yards in a 52-47 win for the Hornets. UC Davis made it a game after falling behind. They scored 13 unanswered in the fourth quarter. UC Davis got the ball back late but couldn’t convert on fourth and six to keep their chance at a win alive. Helluva season, Hornets.

In the final game of the day Eastern Washington pushed to keep its playoff hopes alive and all they had to do was beat Portland State. I would like to say this game was close, and it was for two quarters. Then Eastern Washington exploded for 28 points in the third quarter and it wasn’t close anymore. A turning point early in the game for Eastern Washington was Gage Gubrud somehow being sacked in the end zone and simultaneously flinging the ball over his back shoulder resulted in an incomplete pass. The Eagles then went on a 99 yard scoring drive. That pretty much summed up Portland State’s day. Eastern Washington did not make the playoffs despite having a resume that suggested they should.

Scores

Montana 23
Montana State 31

Cal Poly 0
Northern Colorado 42

Idaho State 7
Weber State 35

Northern Arizona 20
Southern Utah 48

UC Davis 47
Sacramento State 52

Portland State 33
Eastern Washington 59

Big Sky Player of the Week

The Big Sky Player of the Week this week is Weber State quarterback Stefan Cantwell. Cantwell was 21/29 for 262 yards and 3 TDs, while rushing 16 times for 75 yards and 1 TD as Weber State wrapped up their season with a win against Idaho State.

Big Sky MVP Candidates

Gage Gubrud, QB, Eastern Washington – 17/32 for 445 yards, 4TD, 8 rush for 67 yards, 1 TD
Elijah Marks, WR, Northern Arizona – 5 receptions for 86 yards
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis – 13 receptions for 173 yards, 1 rush for 42 yards, 1 TD
Gresch Jensen, QB, Montana – 30/49 for 326 yards, 1 TD 1 INT, 6 rush for 35 yards
Patrick Tyler, QB, Southern Utah – 20/30 for 238 yards, 1 INT, 10 rushes 31 yards 2 TD

Big Sky Power Rankings

1. Southern Utah
2. Weber State
3. Eastern Washington
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. Sacramento State
7. Montana State
8. UC-Davis
9. Northern Colorado
10. Idaho State
11. North Dakota
12. Cal Poly
13. Portland State

Final Thoughts and Hot Takes

There’s no hot takes I can offer that can match what Bill Chaves and Jon Kasper tweeted out this weekend. They tweeted pure fire at the playoff committee for leaving out Eastern Washington, not seeding Southern Utah high enough, and basically said the playoff committee has their head in their … darker body cavities. They both make a strong case, and mildly suggest that the playoff committee try watching football in the Mountain and Pacific time zones someday.

The Jerome Souers story is totally nuts. He was told early in the season that he would not be retained as their head coach at the end of the season. Effectively him and his staff were lame ducks. Over the weekend the NAU athletic director took a new job at UTSA. NAU’s president decided Sauers was getting a raw deal and decided on his own to retain him. Presumably Souers had done enough this season to warrant not being pushed out the door. Bizarre circumstances in Flagstaff.

Montana firing Bob Stitt is a puzzler. 21-14, 1-1 in playoff games. Griz fans are very demanding of their coaches and nothing short of Nick Saban success is good enough. Now if only Montana had Alabama finances to justify this kind of outrage. That being said, that’s college football nowadays, what have you done for me today? I think Montana was a year away from being a very formidable football team. However, in the Treasure State beating the cats is a higher priority than most anything. Can’t face your co-workers on Monday after a loss.

That said, Bruce Barnum went 0-11 and will still be the head coach at Portland State next season.

Eastern Washington not getting into the playoffs was a bit of a sham. Just looking at the playoff bracket I can see some teams in there in the “do not belong” category. I’m looking at you Monmouth, Nicholls State, and just because it pisses me off, San Diego. Lehigh will be in the playoff field with a 5-6 record and not getting any votes in the STATS or AGS top 25 polls. However, because their sham of a conference is awarded an auto-bid, here we are. Colgate, by the way? 7-4, 5-1 on the season. Their only conference loss? Lehigh. Thus, your autobid.

My winners for next week: Stony Brook, Weber State, Northern Iowa, New Hampshire, Kennesaw State, South Dakota, Elon, Northern Arizona.

My champion: James Madison d. North Dakota State.

MVFC – Week 12 in Review

MVFC LogoAnd here we are again once more…another football season has come and gone (well…regular season, anyway). I’d say that it seems like it goes faster every year, but really…isn’t that just life? I plan on going into each team a little more in-depth a little later on into the postseason; maybe do a brief “year in review” of each team, who they’re saying goodbye to, hope for the future, that kind of stuff. No promises, but I’ll do my best.

Now that the regular season has wrapped up, we can take a look at the final conference standings (ordered by conference record, then by overall record).

School Overall Conference
North Dakota State 10-1 7-1
South Dakota State 9-2 6-2
Northern Iowa 7-4 6-2
Western Illinois 8-3 5-3
South Dakota 7-4 4-4
Illinois State 6-5 4-4
Youngstown State 6-5 4-4
Southern Illinois 4-7 2-6
Missouri State 3-8 2-6
Indiana State 0-11 0-8

Missouri State at Youngstown State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
MSU 0 0 3 7 10
YSU 10 14 0 14 38

Quick Hits:

  • MSU – QB Peyton Huslig only threw for 45 yards, but also ran for 124 yards
  • MSU – S Jared Beshore led the Bears with 9 tackles, 1 for loss
  • MSU – Last week’s MVFC Newcomer of the Week, LB Angelo Garbutt, had 8 tackles (1 for loss) and a forced fumble
  • YSU – RB Tevin McCaster ran for 181 yards and 2 TDs
  • YSU – S Jalyn Powell led the Penguins with 9 tackles, 1.5 for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 QB hurry
  • YSU – WR Samuel St. Surin recovered a botched snap in the end zone for a TD and won the MVFC Special Teams Player of the Week award

The first half was all Penguins, putting up 10 in the first quarter and 14 in the second, while holding MSU to no points. MSU finally got on the board with a FG in the 3rd. In the final quarter of the game, YSU had two TD runs that sandwiched a MSU TD run, which pushed the game even further out of reach for the Bears and gave the Penguins the 38-10 victory.

Youngstown State finishes the regular season at 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the conference.
Missouri State drops to 3-8 overall, 2-6 against MVFC teams

My Pick in Review:

I said: Penguins by 7
It was: Penguins by 28
Well…YSU has been kinda on-again-off-again this season, getting shut out by Illinois State, then putting up 66 the next week on Indiana State. I guess I figured this would be a lower-scoring game for YSU, and I was wrong. I did get the pick right, though, so that counts for something…right?

#2 North Dakota State at #26 Illinois State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
NDSU 0 0 13 7 20
ILSU 0 0 0 7 7

Quick Hits:

  • NDSU – QB Easton Stick only threw for 15 yards, but ran for 65 and 2 TDs
  • NDSU – RB Bruce Anderson ran for 95 yards and a TD
  • NDSU – LB Chris Board and SS Robbie Grimsley led the team with 7 tackles each, with Board having .5 for loss and 1 pass breakup
  • ILSU – RB James Robinson ran for 96 yards and 1 TD
  • ILSU – LB Barry Brannon led the Redbirds in tackles with 10, including 1.5 for loss and a QB hurry

This game was a full-on “Snow Bowl” with significant wind and near-blizzard conditions, so obviously that stats were significantly hindered by the conditions of the game. No team was really able to get anything significant going in the first half, which led to a couple of big old zeros on the scoreboard at halftime. In the 3rd, however, NDSU was able to get their run game going in a couple of drives that led to TDs to go up 13-0. In the 4th, ILSU finally put points on the board with a running TD of their own, but the Bison answered back immediately with a 3-play, 40 second TD drive with under 3 minutes left in the game to put the final nail in the coffin on a 20-7 win over the ranked Redbirds.

North Dakota State finishes the regular season at 10-1 and 7-1 in the MVFC. They are the #2 seed in the playoffs and will sit out the first weekend awaiting the winner of San Diego and Northern Arizona.
Illinois State ends up at 6-5 with a 4-4 conference record.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Bison by 14
It was: Bison by 13
Damn you blocked XP attempt. Otherwise…nailed it.

Southern Illinois (4-6, 2-5 MVFC) at #11 Western Illinois

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SIU 0 0 0 14 14
WIU 0 14 7 7 28

Quick Hits:

  • SIU – QB Matt DeSomer throws for 62 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs, while leading the team in rushing with 73 yards on the ground
  • SIU – S Ryan Neal led the team in tackles with 9 total (6 solo)
  • SIU – P Lane Reazin kicked 6 times for a 43.2 yard per punt average, which was impressive considering the 20+ MPH wind that North/South, so half the game was into a stiff breeze for each team
  • WIU – WR Jaelon Acklin catches for 93 yards and 1 TD, and breaks the school record for receiving yards in a season (previously set by Lance Lenior in 2015)
  • WIU – LB Brett Taylor again leads the team in tackles with 16 including 1 for loss and finished the regular season as the 2017 FCS leader in tackles, by nearly a full tackle per game over the #2 player. He also received the MVFC Defensive Player of the Week award
  • WIU – DBs Xavier Rowe and David Griffith each have INTs and help the Leatherneck defense reach 9 straight quarters of football played (going back to 3rd quarter against Illinois State) without allowing a point

Again the WIU defense steps up huge for most of the game. On a day where the wind played a significant factor (making things much easier for SIU in the 2nd and 4th quarters), the SIU offense was held to 6 total first downs, with the Salukis finally getting first down #3 halfway through the 4th quarter. The first part of the game, pretty much neither offense was able to figure out a rhythm in the blustery conditions. It wasn’t until under 2 minutes left in the first half when WIU went ahead with their first TD. A couple plays into SIU’s next drive, WIU got an INT and then on the next play, threw a 52-yard TD bomb to standout WR Jaelon Acklin. Early in the 3rd, WIU picked up another TD on a 17-yard Max Norris run, and then midway through the 4th, another Acklin TD…this time 8 yards on the ground to put the Leathernecks ahead 28-0. The WIU defense ended up taking the foot off the gas a bit near the end of the game and allowed SIU, with the wind at their backs, to pick up their first points of the game with around 6 minutes left. They tacked on another one with just over 3 minutes left, but the Leathernecks would hold the Salukis for the remainder and win 28-14.

Western Illinois finishes the regular season at 8-3…their first 8-win season since 2003, with a 5-3 conference record. They will head out west to take on 9-2 Weber State in a first round playoff matchup in Ogden, Utah.
Southern Illinois ends their season at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Leathernecks by 12
It was: Leathernecks by 14
Pretty nearly nailed that one. I was hoping for another shutout like last week, but I suppose holding another team to a goose egg was a bit too much to ask.

#5 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-2 MVFC) at #15 South Dakota

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
SDSU 0 17 7 7 31
USD 0 14 7 7 28

Quick Hits:

  • SDSU – QB Taryn Christion threw for 299 yards and 3 TDs with 1 INT and won the MVFC Offensive Player of the Week award
  • SDSU – TE Dallas Goedert caught 11 receptions for 117 yards, including this amazing grab that he was also incredibly lucky on (I’ve seen more than one receiver come down like that and end up with a nasty broken arm)
  • SDSU – LB Christian Rozeboom led the team in tackles with 10, 2 for loss, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass breakup
  • SDSU – WR/KR Cade Johnson had 124 all-purpose yards with 1 TD averaging 21.3 yards on 4 kickoff returns and had 39 yards and 1 TD receiving. He was awarded the MVFC Newcomer of the Week award
  • USD – QB Chris Streveler threw for 286 yards, 2 INTs, and 1 INT, while also running for 65 yards
  • USD – RBs Michael Frederick and Kai Henry each had 100+ yards rushing, Frederick with 123 yards and 2 TDs, and true freshman Henry with 109 yards
  • USD – DB Isaac Armstead led the team in tackles with 9 including 2 for loss (1 sack), had 1 INT returned 17 yards, and a pass breakup

Unlike the last few games, this one wasn’t significantly impacted by the weather. It also ended up being the closest of all the conference games this weekend. Lots of defense in the first quarter…bunch of punts and an INT…meant no points. Apparently they were saving most of them for the 2nd quarter because the Jackrabbits got the scoring started with a FG early in the quarter. They tacked on a TD before USD put up their own TD. That was quickly followed by a quick SDSU drive capped by a 69-yard TD pass…which was itself quickly answered by a short USD drive finishing with a 17-yard TD run, which would put the score at 17-14 at halftime, with “State” holding the narrow lead. Late in the 3rd, USD would get their first lead of the game on a 10-yard TD pass, but SDSU would take it right back with their own TD drive. SDSU would add one another score with under 5 minutes left in the game, but USD would end up keeping it close with one of their own with just over 2 minutes left. At that point the Jackrabbits had the 3-point lead, which they would hold onto for the win.

South Dakota State ends their regular season at 9-2 overall, 6-2 in the MVFC. They were awarded the #5 seed in the playoffs and will host the winner of next weekend’s matchup between Northern Iowa and Monmouth University.
South Dakota drops to 7-4 in their regular season, with a 4-4 conference record. Despite losing their last 3 games, they were able to find their way into the playoffs and will head down to Thibodaux, LA to take on 8-3 Nicholls State next weekend.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Jackrabbits by 4
It was: Jackrabbits by 3
Hey, I think I’m getting pretty good at this picking thing.

Indiana State at #17 Northern Iowa

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final
INSU 3 0 0 0 3
UNI 17 10 7 7 41

Quick Hits:

  • INSU – RB LeMonte Booker ran for 99 yards and led the team in receiving with 57 yards
  • INSU – LB Katrell Moss led the team in tackles with 12 (.5 for loss) and 2 pass breakups
  • INSU – PK Jerry Nunez got the only points for the Sycamores on a 48-yard FG
  • UNI – QB Colton Howell threw for 216 yards and 2 TDs with 1 INT. He also ran for 35 yards
  • UNI – RB Marcus Weymiller ran for 105 yards and 2 TDs, while WR Daurice Fountain matched his scoring with 80 receiving yards and 2 TDs
  • UNI – LBs Rickey Neal and Duncan Ferch, and DB Nikholi Jaghai led the Panthers in tackles with 6 each. Neal also had 1 sack; Jaghai had an INT; and Ferch had a pass breakup

Indiana State vs a ranked team…do we really need to talk about this?…ok, fine.
The Sycamores started off the scoring with a FG early in the first quarter to take their first and only lead of the game by 3 points. UNI would answer with 2 TDs and a FG of their own to go ahead 17-3. In the second quarter, UNI had another FG and another TD to take a 27-3 lead into halftime. A TD in each of the last two quarters put the Panthers ahead with a final score of 41-3.

Northern Iowa finishes the regular season on a high note with a 7-4 overall record and 6-2 in the conference. They will host 9-2 Monmouth University at the UNIDome next weekend.
Indiana State finishes a heavily disappointing winless season with a 0-11 record…8 of those in the MVFC.

My Pick in Review:

I said: Panthers by 30
It was: Panthers by 38
Not bad…could have been closer on the margin, but pretty solid. Specifically what I said was “I think the Sycamores will struggle to get points on the board this game, and while the Panther offense might not put up the 42 points that have been averaged against them in the last few games, I think they’ll get close.” So…close to 42 points…how about 41?…close enough?

I was 49-15 in my picks this season going into this week. This week I went 5-0 in my picks which puts me at 54-15 for the regular season, which works out to 78.2% correct picks. Not too bad…not amazing, but decent, I’d say.

Later this week I’ll preview the 3 MVFC playoff games coming up the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

2017 Final AGS Bracket PROJECTION

This is not, I repeat not the official NCAA FCS Bracket.  This is what it should like when it comes out.  I hope they get it right like they did last year.  We are projecting based off of our AGS Top 25 Poll which has been a very good predictor of playoff teams over the years.

The FCS Wedge Playoff Bracket

Our Method: We use the AGS poll to pick both the seeds and at larges as that poll has been one of the better predictors of both those selections and is a combination of many voters and not just that of one opinion. We use feedback from many wedge contributors to determine our best guess at automatic qualifiers. Once we have the field set we use the guidelines the committee uses from the FCS Championship handbook to put the bracket together. You can see those guidelines in the link below.

Championship Manual Link

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/fi…l_20170914.pdf

Last four in: Delaware, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, McNeese St

First four out: New Hampshire, Monmouth, Sacramento State, Austin Peay

Next four out: Montana, Illinois State, Nicholls State, Richmond

The Seeds: The seeds remained almost the same as last week with Southern Utah leap frogging Wofford to swap 7 and 8 seeds after the Thunderbirds finished off with a dominating performance to tie up the Big Sky crown. Although Wofford dropped one spot despite a respectable showing against FBS and SEC foe South Carolina. The AGS top 8 have been consistent the past couple of weeks and I expect the committee will come up with the same 8 seeds. However, the order is still very much unsure as we haven’t seen a committee ranking after two weekends of competition.

The Bubble: Eastern Washington and McNeese St have moved into the bracket following wins to finish out their seasons. Montana and New Hampshire were both eliminated from the field following losses with the Wildcats just missing as our unfortunate first team out. Delaware was the last team in still holding onto a spot after their loss this weekend, but putting them square in the bubble. Kennesaw St also moved into the field securing the Big South auto which eliminated Monmouth although the Hawks sit as the second team out. Sacramento State and Austin Peay moved into the first group of teams out finishing out the season strong, but that wasn’t quite enough to get them into the bracket.

*Note: Elon/Furman and Samford/Kennesaw St played OOC matchups earlier in the season. The committee does try and avoid these matchups barring it doesn’t create additional flights. As this field was set, splitting up these matchups created additional travel. Conference rematches are not allowed in the first round.

Conference Breakdown Below

Automatic Qualifiers At- Large Bids
Big Sky Southern Utah Weber St
Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona
Big South Kennesaw St
CAA James Madison Stony Brook
Elon
Delaware
MVFC North Dakota St South Dakota St
Western Illinois
Norhtern Iowa
South Dakota
NEC Central Connecticut
OVC Jacksonville St
Patroit Lehigh
Pioneer San Diego
Southern Wofford Samford
Furman
Southland Central Arkansas Sam Houston St
McNeese St