MVFC Postseason Week 3 Preview

MVFC LogoConsidering some of the discussion and analysis of playing schemes and stuff over on the game-related threads at AnyGivenSaturday.com, I kinda feel like these articles are a bit redundant this far into the playoffs. If you’ve been reading my articles for a while, you know I’m not really a guy who gets into things like which blocking schemes work better against which types of offenses. I’m a data guy…a numbers guy…you know…a nerd. If you want to really get into things like how SDSU’s defense is going to be able to handle Kennesaw State’s option offense, or how effective NDSU will be at running the ball against Colgate’s stout defense, I’ll throw in the links to the game discussion threads for the MVFC games so you can go discuss it with people who are much smarter than I am about such things.

Anyway, now that UNI has been eliminated from the playoffs, we’re down to the two XDSU schools left for MVFC representation in the FCS playoffs.

Couple of quick things:

  • I’ll be using full-season stats, because most of the games will not be in-conference matchups.
  • Rankings of stat categories will be ranking within the entire FCS (out of 124 teams)
  • I will usually round to the nearest yard for things like yards per game

All times are listed as Central time zone and the rank numbers are now going to be based on the seed numbers as assigned by the playoff committee. Here’s the list along with starting times and the “channel” that they’ll be available on.

Saturday, December 8th
11:00 AM – #8 Colgate at #1 North Dakota State, ESPN
1:00 PM – #5 South Dakota State at #4 Kennesaw State, ESPN3

For those that may not be aware, the other two games going on over on the other side of the bracket are #7 Maine (CAA) at #2 Weber State (Big Sky) at 7 PM on Friday night on ESPN2, and #6 UC Davis (Big Sky) at #3 Eastern Washington (Big Sky) at 3 PM on Saturday afternoon on ESPN3.

Colgate at North Dakota State

The Series: This will be the first ever meeting between the Raiders and the Bison. The last time NDSU faced off against any team from the Patriot League was in 2011, when they hosted Lafayette to open their season (and won 42-6) and then had then #6 Lehigh in the quarterfinals of the playoffs (winning 24-0) en route to FCS Championship #1. This year is Colgate’s first appearance in the FCS playoffs since 2015 when they went 2-1 postseason. The last time Colgate played a MVFC team was in 2012 when their second game of the season was a 31-21 loss at South Dakota.

‘Gate’s Record: The Raiders went 9-1 in the regular season and 6-0 against Patriot League teams. They started off the season with wins over Holy Cross and then #20 New Hampshire. They then had a game at Furman that was cancelled due to hurricane. After that, they beat Lafayette, William & Mary, Bucknell, Cornell, Georgetown, Fordham, Lehigh, and then had their lone loss of the season at FBS (and currently 9-2) Army (but with a pretty respectable score of 28-14). In the playoffs, they are the #8 seed, so they had the opening round off and then beat James Madison 23-20 to earn a trip to the Fargodome.

NDSU’s Record: In case you’ve been living under a rock, NDSU is undefeated this season, going 12-0 overall with an 8-0 conference record. They decimated Cal Poly, North Alabama, and Delaware to start their season. They then went through the MVFC portion of the season with a 4-point win over SDSU and wins over UNI, WIU, ILSU, USD, then a surprisingly close game against YSU before stomping all over MSU and SIU. As the #1 seed, they also had a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They hosted Montana State last weekend, winning by a score of 52-10.

About Colgate: Statistically, Colgate’s strength is their defense, which is #1 in the FCS in both yards allowed (219 ypg) and points allowed (7 per game), although against FCS teams, the points allowed drops to 4.9 ppg. The total number of TDs that the Raiders have given up this season to FCS teams…including in the playoffs…can be counted on one hand. They are 2nd in passing yards allowed (130 ypg) and 4th in their run defense (88 ypg). LB T.J. Holl is the “tackling machine” for Colgate’s defense, averaging 9.5 tackles per game and has 2 forced fumbles and was named the conference Defensive Player of the Year. DT Nick Wheeler picks up 4.36 tackles per game, but also leads the team in tackles for loss (16) and sacks (8), has 5 QB hurries and 2 fumble recoveries. Wheeler finished #8 in the Buchanan Award (FCS Defensive Player of the Year) voting this year. DB Tyler Castillo has 6 interceptions this season including 2 last weekend against James Madison, and 7 pass breakups. DB Alec Wisniewski had 6 tackles per game and 6 pass breakups. All the previously mentioned players were first-team All-Patriot League.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders are 79th in total offense (361 ypg) and 47th in scoring (29.5 ppg). They don’t have much in the way of a passing game, picking up only 161 ypg through the air (104th), although they’ve only thrown 3 interceptions all season. On the ground, they are 33rd in the FCS, putting up essentially 200 ypg). Their QB is Grant Breneman, a first-team all-conference player, who throws for 171 ypg with 6 TDs and 3 interceptions and a 63.9% completion rate. Breneman is also the #2 rusher on the team, averaging 33 ypg with 7 rushing TDs. His primary receiving targets are WRs Owen Rockett (63 ypg w/ 3 TDs) and TB James Holland Jr.. Holland has 30 catches for 18 ypg and 2 TDs receiving, but is primarily the majority of the ground game, averaging 105 ypg with 12 TDs rushing. Holland was named the Patriot League’s Offensive Player of the Year and he finished 15th in the Walter Payton Award voting. PK Chris Puzzi is 15 of 17 on field goal attempts, perfect under 40 yards out and has a long of 47.

Colgate is good at both holding onto the ball, with 26 turnovers gained this season (9th in the FCS) and only 10 turnovers lost (8th) for an average margin of +1.45 turnovers per game (3rd).

About North Dakota State: The Bison also have an exceptionally strong defense, ranking 6th in total yardage allowed (289 ypg) and 2nd in points allowed (12). Against the run, they are 13th with 108 ypg) and they’re 14th against the pass at 181 ypg. LB Jabril Cox just missed out on making the top 3 for Buchanan Award voting (and is only a sophomore) and was the MVFC defensive player of the year. Cox leads the team with 6.5 tackles per game, has 4 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 5 QB hurries. In his 4 interceptions, he’s returned them 147 total yards including 2 for TDs. Safety Robbie Grimsley was 9th in Buchanan Award voting and has 6 tackles per game with 5 interceptions and 4 pass breakups. LB Dan Marlette also gets in on the action fairly often, with 6.17 tackles per game, 4 pass breakups, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. DE Greg Menard and DT Cole Carcz lead the team in sacks with 7.5 each.

NDSU’s offense is also extremely good, putting up 461 ypg (18th in the FCS) and 42 ppg (6th). They have the 9th best run game (277 ypg) but their passing offense is statistically, only 87th in yardage with 181 ypg). The thing is, with the ground game that they have, they rarely need to pass the ball, but when they do, they are 10th yards per completion and QB Easton Stick is 3rd in the FCS in passing efficiency. Stick is the MVFC Offensive Player of the Year and is in the top 3 for Walter Payton Award voting. He has 22 passing TDs with 5 interceptions and runs for 34 ypg with 11 TDs. When he does pass, most of them are heading towards WR Darrius Shepherd who has 51 catches for 71 ypg and 6 TDs. TE Ben Ellefson doesn’t get a ton of yardage (15 ypg) but gets targeted for a lot of red zone/short down plays, picking up 7 receiving TDs from 12 total catches. The NDSU ground game is primarily a 2-headed monster, with RBs Lance Dunn and Bruce Anderson both averaging 72-73 ypg. Dunn has 12 rushing TDs and just under 6 yards per carry while Anderson has 6 TDs and a 7 yards per carry average. RBs Ty Brooks (54 ypg w/ 4 TDs) and Adam Cofield (40 ypg w/ 6 TDs) would honestly be the starting/top 2 RBs on nearly any other team in the FCS. On special teams, punter Garrett Wegner is 7th in the FCS with 43.7 yards per punt, and the previously mentioned WR Darrius Shepherd is 4th in the FCS at returning punts, averaging 17.4 yards per return.

My Take: Colgate is an excellent defensive team. A lot of their numbers were put up against teams that maybe aren’t quite as strong as what NDSU usually faces off against in the MVFC, but they also did really well in their loss to Army and taking down James Madison last weekend, forcing 5 interceptions while not turning over the ball once. That being said, I don’t think they’ve taken on a team with the particular set of skills that the Bison have. NDSU can move the ball much more effectively than JMU does, both on the ground and in the air, and are not anywhere near as prone to turnovers, so I don’t think the Raiders can count on that to keep them in this game. This will also likely be the best defense that Colgate has faced this year. Because of the strength of the two defenses, I feel like both teams will probably end up with fewer than their average points, but I think that NDSU can just keep grinding away on offense much better than Colgate can. My prediction is a 31-12 NDSU victory.

For more discussion and analysis, here’s the thread on AnyGivenSaturday.com for this game: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?219397-Quarterfinal-1-North-Dakota-State-vs-8-Colgate

South Dakota State at Kennesaw State

The Series: This is also the first ever meeting between the Jackrabbits and Owls. This is much less surprising than the NDSU vs Colgate game being their first ever meeting because while NDSU, SDSU, and Colgate have all been playing football since the late 1800’s, this is only the fourth season of football for Kennesaw State. This weekend will actually be the first time KSU has played any MVFC team. It’s also, as near as I can tell, the first time SDSU has played against any of the current members of the Big South conference.

SDSU’s Record: The Jackrabbits went 8-2 overall with a 6-2 conference record in the regular season. Their opener at FBS Iowa State was cancelled due to weather. They then hosted Montana State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, winning both games handily, by 31 and 84 points, respectively. In the MVFC, they lost at NDSU by 4, beat Indiana State by 3 in OT and then defeated Youngstown State before dropping a defensive battle to UNI. They followed that up with wins over Illinois State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, and South Dakota. As a seeded team, they had the first round of the playoffs off and then “snow-plowed” Duquesne 51-6 last weekend in a snowstorm.

KSU’s Record: The Owls had a 11-1 record through the regular season and went 5-0 in Big South games. They opened with a 4-point loss at FBS Georgia State, and since then have done nothing but win. They blew out Tennessee Tech, Alabama State, and DII Clark Atlanta. They had a closer game against Samford (14-point win), but then hit 56 points twice in wins against Presbyterian and Gardner-Webb. KSU then won handily over Charleston Southern, Campbell and Monmouth before finishing up their regular season with a barn-burner against Jacksonville State at the Braves’ Suntrust Park where the Owls won 60-52. KSU went into the playoffs as the #4 seed with a first-round bye. In the second round, they hosted Wofford and beat them in a defensive battle, 13-10, that was tied until a FG with less than 2 minutes left in the game gave the Owls the win.

About SDSU: South Dakota State is 5th in the FCS in total offense (508 ypg) and 2nd in scoring offense (45.9 ppg). Those numbers are slightly skewed by a 90-6 win early in the season, but by now, they’ve shown that high-scoring games are not a fluke. They have a fairly balanced offense that puts up an average of 266 ypg through the air (25th) and 241 ypg on the ground (15th). QB Taryn Christion finished 7th in the voting for the Walter Payton Award this season, throwing for 245 ypg with 29 TDs (5th in the FCS) and 6 interceptions. Christion is also 5th in the FCS for passing efficiency with a rating of 163.8 and runs for an average of 24 ypg with 5 TDs. WR Cade Johnson is the primary target, with 60 catches for 16 TDs and an average of 107 ypg with WR Adam Anderson next on the list with 45 catches for 6 TDs and 63 ypg. Since taking over as one of the primary RBs after a couple of injuries to starters, RB Pierre Strong Jr. has averaged 167 ypg with 9 TDs (that’s in the last 3 regular season games and the second-round playoff game). RB Mikey Daniel is in a similar situation, having been moved up the depth chart midseason due to injuries and is averaging 67 ypg with 7 TDs (removing his limited involvement in the first three games of the season) and had 100 rushing yards with 2 TDs in last weekend’s playoff game (in a snowstorm). PK Chase Vinatieri is 12 for 19 on FGs this season, but has the leg strength to have made a 57-yarder earlier this season, and Punter Brady Hale is 16th in the FCS, averaging 42.7 yards per punt.

When the Jackrabbits are on defense, LB Christian Rozeboom picks up most of the tackles, averaging 7.3 per game (80 total, 40 solo) with 6.5 for loss and 2 interceptions. DE Ryan Earith leads the team with 9 tackles for loss including 5.5 sacks and 9 QB hurries. CBs Jordan Brown and Zy Mosley do a solid job in the backfield, with Brown having 10 pass breakups and 3 interceptions and Mosely having 4 interceptions. In terms of total defense, SDSU gives up 363 ypg (43rd) and 20.8 ppg (13th). They are 49th against the pass (209 ypg) and 45th against the run (154.2 ypg).

About KSU: Kennesaw State frequently runs a triple-option offense, which can be tricky for defenses to handle if they aren’t disciplined about paying attention to a play and handling their assignments. It also ends up skewing the stats somewhat towards their running game since it involves lots of handoffs, QB runs, and short lateral tosses to players running out to the edges. The Owls are 20th in total offense (457 ypg) and 3rd in scoring offense (45.7 ppg), with a heavy emphasis on the run game, averaging 356 ypg on the ground (2nd in the FCS) but only 101 ypg through the air (119th out of 124 teams). QB Chandler Burks averages 86 ypg passing with 10 TDs, but also leads the team in rushing with 73 ypg and 29 TDs (that’s #1 in the FCS) and is a finalist (top 3) for the Walter Payton Award. RB Darnell Holland gets nearly as many yards on the ground as Burks does, picking up 71 ypg and 9 TDs while RB Shaquil Terry gets 46 ypg with 5 TDs. RB Jake McKenzie is a bit of a bigger back who, it looks like, often goes in for short-down situations, due to his high number of attempts (97) but only a 38 ypg average. The few times that KSU does pass, it’s frequently to WR Justin Sumpter who leads the team with a 32 ypg average and 4 TDs receiving. PK Justin Thompson is 8 for 10 on FGs this season with a long of 44.

On defense, the Owls give up only 260 ypg (3rd in the FCS) and 14.4 ppg (6th). Their pass defense is 7th, giving up 152 ypg and their run defense is 12th allowing 108 ypg. LB Anthony Gore leads the team in tackles with 73 (~6 per game) with 15 tackles for loss including 6 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Gore also finished 10th in Buchanan Award voting this year. LB Bryson Armstrong is just behind Gore for tackles with 70 (5.83 per game) with 8.5 for loss and 3 QB hurries. DBs Dorian Walker and Cincere Mason each have 3 interceptions and a fumble recovery. Walker also has 4 pass breakups while Mason has 3. DL Andrew Butcher is another man to watch for pressuring the QB with 4 QB hurries, 7 tackles for loss, and 3 fumble recoveries this season.

My Take: I would say that this game should be much closer than the NDSU/Colgate game will likely be. KSU has more impressive numbers and is obviously a really good team, but you also have to take into account who they’ve played. Strength of schedule ratings for the FCS are somewhat sparse, but according to Massey Ratings, SDSU has had the 11th toughest schedule in the FCS, while Sagarin says 148th in all of DI. KSU’s numbers for the same ratings systems are 74th toughest FCS schedule and 214th in DI. I think that SDSU’s defense is pretty solid and should be able to do ok against KSU, assuming they remain focused and stick to their assignments. KSU’s defense meanwhile, is excellent, but I don’t know if they’ve faced an offense that’s as good at all facets as the Jackrabbits. I think we’ll probably see both teams get fewer than their average points in this one. In the past, I would say that weather would have made a bigger difference to SDSU, because in the past they were very much a pass-oriented team. This year though, that has evened out quite a bit with the emergence of a couple of young RBs and graduation of two of the best receivers SDSU has ever had. It’s supposed to be in the low 40s and rainy during much of this game, but considering SDSU put up over 50 points in a snowstorm…that may not be that much of an issue. My guess is something around a 38-32 SDSU win in this one.

For more discussion and analysis, here’s the thread on AnyGivenSaturday.com for this game: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?219397-Quarterfinal-1-North-Dakota-State-vs-8-Colgate

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1204 – Rd.3 PREVIEW

Topic 1: Game Previews

Maine at Weber State (Friday night ESPN 2 8:00 Eastern)

Colgate @ NDSU (ESPN 12:00 Eastern)

SDSU @ KSU (ESPN 3 2:00 Eastern)

UC Davis @ EWU (ESPN 3 4:00 Eastern)

Topic 2: Payton, Buchanan, Rice, Robinson awards are discussed.

Topic 3: : Picking the games for this week.

Kris & Lance have some great conversation again this week so listen in and see what they think this week.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1204 – RD2 REVIEW

A Nicholls fan reached out on social media hoping to tailgate with some EWU folks with the promise of Cajun food. Kris invited him up….listen in to hear a good story about FCS fans and the good bonds that are easily made between fan bases.

TOPIC 1: Games

Maine 55 Jacksonville State 27

Weber State 48 Southeast Missouri State 23

North Dakota State 52 Montana State 10

Colgate 23 James Madison 20

South Dakota State 51 Duquesne 6

Kennesaw State 13 Wofford 10

Eastern Washington 42 Nicholls State 21

UC Davis 23 Northern Iowa 16

Topic 2: What did we learn?

1) Maine and Weber have offenses

2) The Playoff Committee got the seeds right

3) Less rationalization can mean two conferences get 5 teams in the quarters. Is that a bad thing?

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

MVFC Postseason Week 2 In Review

MVFC LogoThe Scores

Montana State – 10
North Dakota State – 52

Duquesne – 6
South Dakota State – 51

Northern Iowa – 16
UC Davis – 23

Montana State at #1 North Dakota State

The Bobcats started with the ball in this game and on their first play of scrimmage, QB Troy Anderson nailed a 71-yard pass to WR Kevin Kassis to get them down to the NDSU 4 yard line. A couple of plays that went nowhere but backwards later, MSU was kicking a 24-yard FG and taking an early 3-0 lead. NDSU responded on their next drive, moving down the field and scoring on a 1-yard run by RB Lance Dunn. The NDSU defense then stepped up, shutting down MSU’s offense for a while, while NDSU took 4 plays to go 43 yards and into the end zone on a 11-yard run by Dunn, followed up with another 4-play drive, this time covering 68 yards, and with RB Bruce Anderson taking it the final 32 yards into the end zone and putting the Bison up 21-3 after 1 quarter. In the 2nd, another long NDSU drive got them familiar with the other end zone after Dunn ran 1 yard for another rushing TD. Another MSU 3-and-out and NDSU only needed 2 plays…19 yard run by RB Ty Brooks, then a 46-yard TD run by…who else..Lance Dunn…scoring his 4th rushing TD in the half. A blocked punt gave NDSU decent field position that they were able to turn into a 27-yard FG by PK Cam Pederson, giving NDSU a 38-3 that they would hold to halftime.

In the second half, the Bison started with the ball, but two plays in, threw an interception to MSU LB Josh Hill. 7 plays later though, MSU QB Troy Anderson threw it right back to NDSU CB Marquise Bridges. MSU was able to put together a solid drive on their next possession though, mostly running the ball, and finishing with a 51-yard TD run by the QB Anderson to narrow the lead to…28. NDSU came right back though, with 3 running plays, then a 30-yard TD run by RB Brooks to give the Bison a 45-10 lead going into the final quarter of play. With mostly the second string in, North Dakota State RB Adam Cofield ran on 7 of the next 11 plays, including a 1 yard TD run putting NDSU up 52-10. From that point on, defenses held, and NDSU mostly just ran the ball the eat up the rest of the clock to come away with the 42-point win.

MSU QB Troy Anderson threw for 124 yards and 1 interception, while also leading the team in rushing with 129 yards and 1 TD. The top receiver for the Bobcats was WR Kevin Kassis who caught 4 passes for 93 yards. LB Brayden Konkol led the team in tackles with 10 (5 solo) and LB Josh Hill had 5 with an interception.

NDSU QB Easton Stick threw for an absolutely incredible…um…86 yards and 1 interception. As you can tell by the score though, they didn’t really need to do much through the air, with RB Dunn running for 127 yards and 4 TDs, RB Anderson for 118 yards and 1 TD, RB Brooks for 103 yards and 1 TD, and RB Cofield for 48 yards and 1 TD. NDSU LB Jabril Cox led the Bison with 10 tackles (4 solo). DT Cole Karcz had 3 including 1 sack, and CB Marquise Bridges had a couple of tackles to go along with his interception. Punter Garret Wegner only had to put his foot on the ball twice, but averaged 44 yards with one inside the 20. Safeties Robbie Grimsley and Michael Tutsie along with RBs Anderson and Brooks all had solid kick returns that helped the Bison win the field position battle.

Montana State ends their season at 8-5 overall with a 5-3 record in the Big Sky and 1-1 in the playoffs. North Dakota State moves up to 12-0 overall, winning their first playoff game of the season and will host #8 Colgate next weekend. The Raiders earned their trip to NDSU after knocking off the only team outside of Fargo to win the FCS championship in the last 7 years, James Madison, by 3 points.

Duquesne at #5 South Dakota State

The Dukes, after winning their first FCS playoff game ever, were rewarded with a South Dakota snowstorm. The Jackrabbits started with the ball and moved downfield, covering the final 43 yards with a TD pass from QB Taryn Christion to WR Cade Johnson. It was actually a defensive stalemate for a while, as the longest drive the rest of the quarter would only go 30 yards and give nobody any points. Near the end of the 1st though, SDSU Safety Brandon Snyder forced and recovered a fumble giving the Jackrabbits great starting field position, then in the first play in the 2nd quarter, WR Isaiah Hill ran the ball 23 yards in for a TD, putting SDSU up 14-0. It wasn’t until late in the half, with only about 90 second left, that they’d get more points on the board, when RB Pierre Strong ran 52-yards for a TD. This was also the point when the snow really started blowing in. Late in the quarter, PK Chase Vinatieri hit a 39-yard FG to go up 24-0 going into halftime.

The snow picked up significantly during halftime…for comparison:
this is what it looked like for kick off the first half

and this was the view to start the second half (click the photos for larger versions)
.

Duquesne got the ball to start the 3rd quarter, using a 68-yard pass from QB Daniel Parr to WR Kellon Taylor to get into the red zone and then punching it in. The XP attempt failed, making it 24-6 for SDSU. A few drives later, WR Isaiah Hill got his second TD of the game on a 15-yard run. An interception by Safety Larenzo Williams gave the Jackrabbits the ball at the Dukes’ 32 yard line, which RB Mikey Daniel would run into the end zone on a 27-yard rush two plays later to put them ahead by 31. Five plays into the next Duquesne drive, SDSU CB Zy Mosely picked off another Daniel Parr pass. Not content with letting the offense get all the points, Mosely took it 43 yards back into the end zone to make it 44-6. Into the 4th quarter, SDSU had a bit more of a “standard” drive, ending with another TD run by RB Daniel, this time from 4 yards out to make things 51-6. Now, that did end up being the final score, but before it was all over, a fumble by SDSU was recovered by Duquesne D-Lineman Rob Marra, who then proceeded to have a little fun with things and make himself a snow angel…seriously. At this point, with less than 7 minutes left, a snow-covered field, and a senior playing in his final game of his collegiate career and who had just gotten his first ever turnover, the refs decided to take a cue from the “No Fun League” and throw a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct flag on him. I mean, I get that what he was doing was technically against the rules, but considering the situation of the game and the fact that it sure didn’t look like any of the SDSU players minded him having a little fun with things (being up by 45 often improves your general mood), the penalty didn’t really seem warranted. Anyway, from then on, the defenses held, the Jackrabbits ran the ball 8 more times, using up the final 4 ½ minutes of the game and coming away with a 51-6 victory.

Duquesne QB Daniel Parr had 160 passing yards with 2 interceptions and ran for 12 yards and a TD. Daquan Worley led the team in rushing with 60 yards, and WR Kellon Taylor had 5 catches for 97 yards. Defensively, LB Nohea Keahi topped the list with 6 tackles (3 solo) including 1.5 for loss. DB Reid Harrison-Ducros had 5 tackles and a forced fumble and DL Rob Marra had 1 tackle, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 snow angel ???

SDSU QB Taryn Christion had 144 yards and 1 TD passing and ran for 49 yards. RB Mikey Daniel had his first 100-yard rushing game of his career, hitting exactly 100 yards with 2 TDs. Freshman RB Pierre Strong Jr. picked up 92 yards and 1 TD and R-Fr. WR Isaiah Hill had 2 runs for a total of 38 yards and 2 TDs. WR Cade Johnson caught 8 passes for 99 yards and 1 TD, and despite names like Wieneke and Godert having been on the SDSU roster for the last few years, Johnson has now tied Jake Wieneke for the school record for receiving TDs in a season at 16 (to be fair, Jake did hit 16 in 3 of his 4 seasons). LBs Christian Rozeboom and Logan Backhaus each had 7 tackles, with Rozeboom having 2 for loss and Backhaus picking up a sack. Safety Brandon Snyder had 5 tackles to go along with a forced fumble and recovery and DBs Zy Mosely and Larenzo Williams each had interceptions with 20+ return yards. Punter Brady Hale kicked 3 times averaging 45.3 with 1 inside the 20, 2 TBs, and a long of 57 yards.

The Dukes finish their season 9-4 with a 5-1 record in the NEC and 1-1 in the playoffs after having upset Towson last weekend. The Jackrabbits are now 9-2 overall, had a 6-2 conference record, and 1-0 in the playoffs. Their chances of another snowstorm diminish considerably next weekend, as they’ll travel down to Kennesaw, GA (north suburb of Atlanta) to take on #4 Kennesaw State after the Owls took down Wofford 13-10 today.

Northern Iowa at #6 UC Davis

Much less snow out in California than there was in South Dakota, so weather would be much less of an issue in this game. UNI started with the ball and were able to get close enough for a 41-yard FG from kicker Austin Errthum. UC Davis took things over from there, moving downfield with a bunch of completed passes, but eventually stalling out at the UNI 6 and settling for a 24-yard FG from kicker Max O’Rourke to tie up the game at 3. UNI did pretty much the same thing on their next drive, this time with a 36-yard FG, but the Aggies were able to to finish their next drive in the end zone with a 4-yard pass to TE Wesley Preece. In the the 2nd quarter, UNI QB Eli Dunne threw a pass to UCD DB Erron Duncan, but they’d only go 3-and-out with it. Later in the 2nd, UNI spotted the Aggies 29 yards on 5 penalties and USD was able to get 3 more points on it from a 35-yard FG to make it 13-6. With time winding down in the half, another long drive by UC Davis got them close enough for a 19-yard FG, to make the halftime score 16-6.

In the second half, UC Davis started with the ball and got just down to the UNI red zone before Panthers LB Duncan Ferch intercepted the ball and ran it back 63 yards to the UCD 35. The Panther offense was useless at that point though, as they’d only get 1 yard more and miss the 51-yard FG attempt. The Aggies WR Jared Harrell had a couple of nice receptions (one for 45 yards) on their next drive, and RB Ulonzo Gilliam ran it in the last 2 yards for another TD to go up 23-6. UNI responded with their own TD drive though, going 74 yards in 6 plays ending with a 1 yard run by RB Trevor Allen to pull within 10. On the first play of UCD’s next drive, QB Jake Maier threw a pass right to UNI DB Austin Evans that was returned 20 yards. Not to be outdone, UNI QB Eli Dunne threw one to UCD DB Vincent White, which he took back 21 yards. In the 4th, in a drive that UNI started late in the 3rd and used a 44-yard pass to WR Terrell Carey, the Panthers made it a 1-score game on a 45-yard FG (camera angles made it look questionable, but the refs called it good and that’s not a challengeable play). The UNI defense held the usually-prolific Aggie offense to a 3-and-out, then they were able to get down to just outside the UCD red zone before missing a 42-yard FG. UCD did pretty much the same thing, driving 54 yards before missing a 38-yard FG. With time running out for UNI, the Panthers got 43 yards downfield to the UCD 36, but on 3rd and 10, their best chance at picking up another first down to keep the drive (and their season) alive fell out of the hands of the receiver. After missing on the 4th down pass attempt to turn the ball over on downs, the Aggies were able to go into “victory formation” and kneel to run out the remaining 2 minutes of the game and take the 23-16 win…their first ever in the FCS playoffs.

UNI QB Eli Dunne had 273 yards passing with 2 interceptions. No receivers had any huge numbers of yards, but WRs Terrell Carey and Deion McShane, and TE Briley Moore each had 50-56 receiving yards.    RB Trevor Allen had 62 rushing yards with the only UNI TD of the game. Christian Jegen and LBs Bryce Flater and Duncan Ferch had 11 tackles each, with Flater having a sack and Ferch an interception returned 63 yards and ½ sack. DB Austin Evans picked up 7 tackles to go with his interception and DL Elerson Smith had a sack as one of his 2 tackles. PK Austin Errthum went 3 for 5 on FG attempts, hitting from 41, 36, and 45 yards, while missing from 51 and 42. The Panther defense held UCD to 23 points, which was their second-fewest against an FCS team this season.

UC Davis QB Jake Maier threw for 310 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions. WR Keelan Doss hauled in 9 catches for 137 yards, and WR Jared Harrell had 6 for 79 yards, but TE Wesley Preece had the only TD reception on one of his two catches. RB Tehran Thomas ran for 87 yards and RB Ulonzo Gilliam had 48 yards and a TD on the ground. The Aggies had 4 players with 7 tackles: LBs Mason Moe and Quincy Bennett, and DBs Devon King and Isiah Olave. King also had a forced fumble and Bennett had 2.5 tackles for loss. DBs Erron Duncan and Vincent White each had interceptions. PK Max O’Rourke was 3 for 4 on FGs, making kicks from 24, 35, and 19 yards out and missing a 38-yard attempt.

Northern Iowa finishes out their season at 7-6 overall with a 5-3 record in the MVFC and 1-1 in the playoffs after taking down Lamar last weekend in another low-scoring affair. UC Davis picks up their 10th win of the season, moving to 10-2 overall with a 7-1 conference record and 1-0 in the playoffs. As the #6 seed, they will travel to fellow Big Sky member, #3 Eastern Washington next weekend, which was the site of their only FCS defeat this season three weeks ago. Eastern Washington earned their way into the next round after a big second half (after being down by 4 at halftime) and winning 42-21 over Nicholls State.

As this is now time to say goodbye to another MVFC team for the season, it is also time to say goodbye to this year’s UNI seniors. They include guys like QBs Eli Dunne and Colton Howell, RB Marcus Weymiller, and TE Elias Nissan. O-linemen Cal Twait and Tyler Putney. They also lose both PK Austin Errthum and Punter Michael Kuntz. On the defense, some of the departing players include LBs Rickey Neal Jr., Duncan Ferch, Blake Thomas, and Kendrick Suntken, D-Lineman Bryce Douglas, and DB A.J. Allen.

How’d I Do?

MSU @ NDSU – My guess was around 38-10 for NDSU. It was 52-10 for NDSU…not a huge surprise there overall.

DUQ @ SDSU – My guess was 34-14 for SDSU. It was 51-6 for SDSU. A bit more impressive than I expected…I think the snow helped the SDSU run game a bit, but the way the Jackrabbits were playing, I don’t think it would have been close regardless of the weather.

UNI @ UCD – My guess was a close, 27-24 UC Davis win. It was a close, 23-16 UC Davis win. Defenses on both sides stepped up a little better than I thought, but I figured UNI wouldn’t quite be able to keep up with the Aggies offensively.

Next Weekend

We are down to 8 total teams playing 4 games next weekend, so I’ll go ahead and list all 4 games even though only 2 feature MVFC teams (all times in Central)

On Friday (12/7) night we have #7 Maine going cross-country to play at #2 Weber State at 7 PM on ESPN2. Saturday late morning at 11 AM features #8 Colgate making their first trip to the Fargodome to take on #1 North Dakota State on ESPN (the main one). Early that afternoon, #4 South Dakota State plays at #4 Kennesaw State at 1 PM on ESPN3, then a bit later, #6 UC Davis has their rematch at #3 Eastern Washington at 3 PM, also on ESPN3.

Something else interesting…this is the first time that the Quarterfinals has featured all the 8 seeded teams. Every year back to 2010 had at least one unseeded team making it at least to the round of 8 teams, and in the previous year, they had 16 teams but only seeded 1-4, so essentially all quarterfinals round games were going to have at least 1 unseeded team no matter what.

 

MVFC – Postseason Week 2 Preview

MVFC LogoOnly one MVFC team played last weekend but now that the seeded teams are in on the action…we have three games involving MVFC teams.

Couple of quick things:

  • I’ll be using full-season stats now, because most of the games will not be in-conference matchups.
  • Rankings of stat categories will be ranking within the entire FCS (out of 124 teams)
  • I will usually round to the nearest yard for things like yards per game

All times are listed as Central time zone and the rank numbers are now going to be based on the seed numbers as assigned by the playoff committee (as opposed to using the AGS Poll, which is what I did during the regular season). Here’s the list along with starting times…all playoff games are available on ESPN3.

Saturday, December 1st
2:00 PM – Montana State at #1 North Dakota State
2:00 PM – Duquesne at #5 South Dakota State
6:00 PM – Northern Iowa at #6 UC Davis

Montana State at North Dakota State

The Series: MSU and NDSU have a somewhat long history as compared to most non-conference playoff matchups. The two teams have faced off 34 times with the Bobcats holding a 21-13 advantage in the series. The first game was back in 1914, then they played a few times in the ‘20s-’50s and then nearly every year from ‘57-’80. Since 1980 though, they’ve only played twice (both at Montana State) with MSU winning 20-17 in 2005 and NDSU winning 42-17 in the 2010 playoffs. They were actually supposed to play back in 2007, but that was rescheduled for a game in 2013…which Montana State backed out of.

MSU’s Record: Montana State was 7-4 in the regular season, with a 5-3 Big Sky record. They opened with a 3-point home win over Western Illinois, then a 31-point loss at South Dakota State, and then a 23-point win over Wagner. In the Big Sky, they beat Portland State, Idaho, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado, and Montana, and they had losses to Eastern Washington, Weber State, and Idaho State. In the first round of the FCS playoffs, they beat Incarnate Word (Southland) 35-14 in Bozeman.

NDSU’s Record: North Dakota State went through the regular season without a loss, going 11-0 overall and 8-0 in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. They started the season with big home wins over Cal Poly, North Alabama, and Delaware, then kicked off their conference schedule with the Dakota Marker game, narrowly beating South Dakota State. They also have wins over Northern Iowa, Western Illinois, Illinois State, South Dakota, a close one against Youngstown State, then finishing with Southern Illinois. As the #1 seed in the playoffs, they took the first weekend off with a first-round bye.

About Montana State: The Montana State offense is fairly strong in the run game, putting up 236 ypg on the ground (17th in the FCS), but they’ve struggled at gaining yards through the air (114th w/ 141.8 ypg). Overall the offense is 64th yardage and 45th in scoring. First Team All-Big Sky QB Troy Anderson is the key to the Bobcat offense despite the fact that he’s only averaging 89 yards per game passing with 3 TDs and 6 interceptions…because he happens to lead the team (4th in the Big Sky) in rushing yards with 107 ypg and has 20 rushing TDs (#2 in the entire FCS). RB Isaiah Ifanse is the other main ground threat with 82 ypg and 7 TDs. When Anderson does throw the ball, his primary receiving target is WR Kevin Kassis who has hauled in 51 catches for 48 ypg with 3 TDs. PK Tristan Bailey is 13 out of 18 on field goals this season with a long of 50 and is perfect when closer than 40 yards, but is only 2 of 7 in the 40-49 range.

On the other side of the ball, the MSU defense allows 402 ypg (72nd) and 26.5 ppg (52nd). They’re 65th against the run and 79th against the pass, so that’s something of a weak point, particularly in the red zone, where they’re allowing opposing teams to score 91.5% of the time (119th in the FCS). LB Brayden Konkol leads the team with 83 tackles (53 solo), 1 sack, 2 interceptions, and 3 fumble recoveries. DE Bryce Sterk is decent with pressure behind the line, with 17 tackles for loss including 8.5 sacks, and Safety Jahque Alleyne leads the conference with 5 interceptions this season.

About North Dakota State: North Dakota State, meanwhile, does a lot of things right. Their offense is 20th in the FCS in total yardage (458 ypg) and 7th in scoring (41.2 ppg), with a 10th ranked run game (265 ypg). Their ranking for passing offense is a bit misleading, as they’re only 83rd in that category, but are 4th in passing efficiency (so…they don’t throw the ball much, but when they do, they don’t often miss and are rarely intercepted). In case you’ve been living under a rock for the last year or two, NDSU QB Easton Stick is the MVFC offensive player of the year, puts up 190 ypg with 22 TDs through the air and 4 INTs and runs for 37 ypg with 11 TDs. As mentioned, it’s the run game that really makes things go, with RBs Lance Dunne and Bruce Anderson both running for 67-68 ypg and having 8 and 5 rushing TDs respectively. WR Darrius Shepherd is the primary receiver, with 50 catches, averaging 76 ypg with 6 TDs and handles punt returns to the tune of conference-leading 18 yards per return. They have a strong O-line that’s only allowed 10 sacks in 11 games. The few times NDSU doesn’t score, punter Garret Wegner is 8th in the FCS, averaging 43.7 yards per punt.

As for the Bison defense…3rd in the FCS in scoring (12.2 ppg) with 288 ypg allowed. They’re 11th against the run, 22nd against the pass….but #1 in the FCS in the red zone, allowing opposing teams to score a measly 45% of the time. Safety Robbie Grimsley and LB Jabril Cox lead the team in tackles with 68. Grimsley has 5 interceptions and 4 pass breakups, while Cox has 4 interceptions, 4 sacks, 5 QB hurries, and 1 MVFC Defensive Player of the Year award. DE Greg Menard seems to spend just as much time on the opposing side of the line of scrimmage as he does on his own, with 7.5 sacks and 7 QB hurries.

My Take: Montana State is a good team with one of the most impressive running QBs in the FCS. However, I feel like there’s only a couple of teams who are good enough and have the right combination of skills to be able to defeat NDSU, and I don’t think the Bobcats are one of them. To beat NDSU, you’d need a very good passing offense and a defense that is good at stopping the run and getting pressure on QBs…things that MSU doesn’t really have. MSU’s only wins over teams with winning records this season were against 6-5 Montana to end the regular season and a win over now 6-5 Incarnate Word in the first round of the playoffs. Both NDSU and MSU played Western Illinois…NDSU won by 27 while MSU won by 3. Both teams played #5 seed South Dakota State…NDSU won that one by 4 and MSU lost by 31. Both teams also played Cal Poly, and put up the same number of points on them (49)…but MSU allowed 42 points while NDSU allowed 3. Overall, I don’t really see this one going the Bobcats’ way. I’m thinking we’re probably going to see something in the range of a 38-10 win for the Bison for this game.

Duquesne at South Dakota State

The Series: The Jackrabbits and Dukes have played twice in their histories. Once back in 1932, when Duquesne won at home, 34-12, and then (and probably much more relevant to this weekend’s game) in August of last year, when SDSU won 51-13 in Brookings.

DUQ’s Record: The Dukes finished their regular season at 8-3 with a 5-1 conference record and winning the NEC auto-bid. They opened their season with a 63-15 loss at FBS UMass, then a 45-0 shutout of DII Lock Haven. They then hosted two Pioneer League teams, beating Valpo by 2 and Dayton by 5. They followed this up with a loss at FBS Hawai’i, 42-21, then were back home for a 1-point loss to Bryant. Since then, they’ve rifled off 6 straight wins, beating Robert Morris, fellow NEC conference leader St. Francis (PA), Wagner, Sacred Heart, and Central Connecticut, before heading into the playoffs and stunning Towson 31-10 in a first-round upset.

SDSU’s Record: The Jackrabbits went 8.2 overall with a 6-2 conference record. Their opener at FBS Iowa State was cancelled due to weather. They then hosted Montana State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, winning both games handily, by 31 and 84 points, respectively. In the MVFC, they lost at NDSU by 4, beat Indiana State by 3 in OT and then defeated Youngstown State before dropping a defensive battle to UNI. They followed that up with wins over Illinois State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, and South Dakota. As a seeded team, they had the first round of the playoffs off last weekend.

About Duquesne: Duquesne averages 383 ypg and 31.2 ppg offensively. They’re a bit stronger in the run game (45th with 186 ypg) than they are in the passing game (77th with 197 ypg). A big part of that is the performance of the NEC Offensive Player of the Year, RB AJ Hines, who averaged 136 ypg with 15 rushing TDs and catches 21 ypg with 2 TDs. Hines ran for 175 yards and 1 TD with 71 receiving yards and 1 TD in their game against Towson last weekend. QB Daniel Parr has a 191 ypg average with 20 TDs through the air (plus 6 rushing TDs). Roughly half of that passing output (85 ypg and 10 TDs) has gone to All-NEC first-team WR Nehari Crawford. They also have a couple of all-conference first-team O-Linemen with Alex Conley and Matt Fitzpatrick.

On defense, the Dukes are again, roughly in the middle of most FCS rankings, giving up 26 ppg and 373 ypg with 203 ypg allowed to opponents’ passing games and 170 ypg on the ground. LB Brett Zanotto leads the team with 86 tackles (53 solo) with 6 for loss. DB Jonathant Istache has 41 tackles and a conference-high 14 pass breakups and 4 interceptions and was another All-NEC first-teamer. LB Jalen Booker picked up 8.5 tackles for loss including 4.5 sacks and 4 QB hurries.

About South Dakota State: The Jackrabbits, meanwhile, have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the FCS, coming in at 3rd on that with an average of 45.4 ppg and 511 ypg (5th). Now, some of that is thrown off a bit by their 90-6 decimation of Ark-Pine Bluff, but even excluding that they still averaged over 40 ppg…with many of those points coming against some pretty solid MVFC defenses. They average 233 ypg on the ground and 278 ypg through the air. QB Taryn Christion is a first-team All-MVFC player putting up 256 ypg and 28 TDs passing with 6 interceptions and is 3rd in the FCS in passing efficiency. He’s also run for 22 ypg with 5 TDs on the ground. In the first half of the season, RB Isaac Wallace was the big name for the ground game, but after a season-ending injury around midway through the season, true freshman Pierre Strong Jr. really stepped up, averaging 192 ypg with 8 TDs in the final 3 games of the season and despite playing a very limited role in the first half of the season, earned the MVFC Freshman of the Year award. RB Mikey Daniel is also a strong performer averaging 52 ypg with 8 TDs through the season. The main target for Christion’s passes is first-team all-conference WR Cade Johnson (only a sophomore) with 107 ypg and 15 TD catches. WR Adam Anderson also gets in on the action, averaging 67 ypg and 6 TDs. PK Chase Vinatieri (nephew of the other Vinatieri kicker…yes…that one) has struggled a little as compared to previous years, hitting 11 of 18 FGs, but has some serious leg distance, nailing a kick from 57 yards out in their game against Northern Iowa.

On the other side of the ball, SDSU gives up an average of 22.3 ppg and 375 ypg. ~213 ypg of that is given up through the air and ~161 ypg on the ground. LB Christian Rozeboom tops the tackling list for the Jackrabbits with 73 (38 solo), 4.5 for loss, with 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery. DE Ryan Earith has 8.5 tackles for loss with 5 sacks and 8 QB hurries, while DB Jordan Brown has 3 interceptions, 10 pass breakups, and was named to the All-conference first-team.

My Take: SDSU isn’t quite as dominant as NDSU…they have actually lost two games…to the two other MVFC teams in the playoffs. The only games they lost were when they were held to under 20 points (actually they were the only two games they were held under 36 points, technically) and the opposing teams were able to essentially shut down their ground game. In Duquesne’s win over Towson, they held a very good QB (another relatively famous name…Flacco) to his lowest passing yardage total of the season and Towson’s ground game wasn’t able to make up the difference. This won’t be the case in this game though…as you can shut down SDSU’s passing game and they’ll still run all over most teams. For example, their game against Youngstown State…when their “star” RB was injured early in the game and SDSU had only 78 yards and 1 TD passing…they still ran for over 250 yards and beat the Penguins by 29 points. Anyway, while it was cool to see Duquesne get their first-ever playoff win in an upset, I think their “Cinderella story” ends in Brookings. I’m going with a 34-14 victory for the Jackrabbits.

Northern Iowa at UC Davis

The Series: This will be the first-ever meeting between the Panthers and the Aggies.

UNI’s Record: Northern Iowa is 6-5 in the regular season with a 5-3 conference record. They had a rough start to the season, losing at Montana by 3 and at FBS Iowa. They then headed home where they took out their aggression on Hampton, shutting them out…and then doing the same to Indiana State. UNI then hosted NDSU and fell in the final quarter (they were leading after 3), but rebounded with wins over both the South Dakota teams including a 24-9 defensive battle with the previously-described Jackrabbits. They then traveled to WIU but suffered a 20-point defeat, took down Illinois State by 10, lost at Youngstown State by 21 and then beat up on Missouri State to the tune of 37-0. Despite a somewhat disappointing regular season (for most Panther fans), they earned an at-large bid to the playoffs and hosted Lamar last weekend, where they won by 3 in a sloppy, low-scoring, mistake-filled game on both sides.

UCD’s Record: UC Davis finished the regular season at 9-2 with a 7-1 record in the Big Sky. They opened with a 6-point win over FBS San Jose State and a big win over San Diego. They then traveled to Stanford, falling by 20. The Aggies then started Big Sky play with wins over Idaho, Northern Colorado, Idaho State in OT, Cal Poly, Montana, and Northern Arizona, before dropping one to eventual #3 seed Eastern Washington. They then closed out their season with a big win over Sacramento State in a game that was moved to Reno, NV due to air quality issues in the region (from the recent forest fires). As the #6 seed in the playoffs, UC Davis was off last weekend.

About Northern Iowa: UNI is something of an odd case, ranking 89th in total offense (346 ypg) and 70th in scoring (26.4 ppg). The passing game is a bit higher than the run game, but neither aspect are blowing the doors off of anyone. QB Eli Dunne has thrown for 193 ypg with 18 TDs and 6 interceptions. They don’t have any receivers averaging over 50 ypg, but have a handful that are all about equal. The top receiver is TE Briley Moore with 44 ypg and 4 TDs, and WR Deion McShane is incredibly fast on kick returns and has caught for 36 ypg with 2 TDs. On the ground, RB Marcus Weymiller is the top ball carrier, picking up 77 ypg with 7 TDs. Something the Panthers do well on offense is hold onto the ball…they’re 12th in the FCS for lost turnovers this season. PK Austin Errthum has had some phenomenal games this season and was named the All-MVFC first-team kicker. He’s 21 of 24 with a long of 46 this season.

On defense, they generally do much better, giving up only 21.2 ppg and 359 ypg, with more of that coming through the air (225 ypg) than on the ground (134 ypg). The Panthers are actually 5th in the FCS for defensive TDs with 4 so far this season and have gained 25 turnovers (11th in FCS), which combined with that aspect on the offensive side of the ball, they are 7th in the FCS for overall turnover ratio, averaging just over +1 for them per game. LB Duncan Ferch is the top tackler on the team with 102 (31 solo) including 5.5 for loss, 4 interceptions, 8 pass breakups, and 5 QB hurries. DL Rickey Neal Jr. has 14.5 tackles for loss with 8.5 sacks and 7 QB hurries; had 3 forced fumbles and was named first-team all-conference this season. Their other big name on defense was DB Xavior Williams (had 4 interceptions), but has been out with injury since their game against YSU and I haven’t heard if he’s possible to return at some point during the playoffs or if his season is over. DB Korby Sander has done a solid job stepping up, with 86 tackles, 3 interceptions, and a forced fumble

About UC Davis: The Aggies have the 7th most productive offense in the FCS for yardage (496 ypg) and 6th most for scoring (42.2 ppg). That is, in large part due to their #3 passing offense (328 ypg). The ground game lags a bit behind, but isn’t a huge problem (56th). The largest pieces of this high-flying offense are the last two Big Sky Offensive Players of the Year, QB Jake Maier and WR Keelan Doss (Doss was a first-team all-Big Sky WR this year). Maier has thrown for 308 ypg with 31 TDs and 6 interceptions with a 65% completion rate, and Doss has 100 catches for an average of 96 ypg with 9 TDs. Other receivers getting in on the action include WR Jared Harrell (69 ypg w/ 5 TDs) and TE Wesley Preece (28 ypg w/ 8 TDs). The ground game is led by RB Ulonzo Gilliam who averages 72 ypg with 10 TDs. Overall, the Aggies are successful from the red zone 90.7% of the time, which is good for 7th in the FCS. All this is despite the fact that they’re 117th in time of possession, averaging just under 27 minutes with the ball…but that’s probably to be expected with an offense that can score quickly and score often.

The defense for UC Davis is kinda at the opposite end of the spectrum though, ranking 90th in yardage (433 ypg) and 57th for points allowed (27.8 ppg). They give up 242 ypg through the air and 191 ypg on the ground. They’re led by LB Moe Mason with 66 tackles (40 solo) including 16 for loss, 8.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 3 QB hurries, a forced fumble and fumble recovery. CB Vince White is very good at knocking down balls, with 16 pass breakups and 1 interception.

My Take: As is common in the Big Sky (or it seems like it is), UC Davis is a big-time offensive team, but gives up a lot on the defensive side of the ball. Only one team has held the Aggies to fewer than 200 passing yards (Eastern Washington), and UC Davis lost that game. Purely by statistical rankings, UNI has a similar defense against the pass and is a little better against the run than Eastern Washington. On the other hand, UNI has been a real “up and down” team this year…winning games nobody expected them to win (SDSU) and losing games that nobody expected them to lose (YSU). If the Panthers have healed up somewhat and are able to get back a player or two that had been out…and if they play up to their potential…then I like their chances in this game. If, however, they come out flat, have dropped passes (like they did against Lamar), then they could be in for a long day. I think the UNI defense will do a solid job of holding UCD to fewer yards and points than they usually put up, but it remains to be seen if the Panther offense can score enough to win. My best guess on this one is that it’s a close game, but the Aggies come away with a close, 27-24 win. Even so, an “upset” by UNI would not really surprise me.

Patriot League Second Round Playoff Preview: James Madison at #8 Colgate

James Madison (9-3) at #8 Colgate (9-1) 1 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

Live Streaming: ESPN3

What’s At Stake: Advance to play the winner of the North Dakota State/Montana State game in the Quarterfinals

Series History: Colgate 1-0

2015 FCS Playoffs 2nd round; Colgate 44 James Madison 38

Playoff History:

Colgate – 11th Appearance, 6-10 record, 2003 National Runner-up

James Madison – 15th Appearance, 16-12 record, 2004 & 2016 National Champions

jmu champs
JMUsports.com

Season Recap

Colgate – The Raiders entered the season as the preseason favorite in the Patriot League and easily lived up to expectations on their way to a perfect 6-0 mark in league play and a 9-1 overall record. Colgate played a 10 game regular season schedule due to a mid-September roadie against Furman being cancelled (Hurricane Florence). The strength of this Colgate team is unquestionably their defense (5.7 ppg allowed) which set numerous league records in 2018. As a result of Colgate’s historically great defense this season, the “O” has been a little underappreciated despite being quite productive (30.1 ppg). QB Grant Breneman and 5th year senior RB James Holland form one of the top backfields in FCS that no one knows about.

James Madison – The Dukes entered the season ranked #2 in the major polls and were the clear favorite to repeat as CAA champions. Heading into the season they were once again touted as North Dakota State’s main challenger to the throne. James Madison lost a heart breaker to the Bison in the 2017 National Championship Game as their bid for back-2-back titles came up just short. The Dukes offense (35.1 ppg) isn’t quite as explosive as it was the last two years with R-Jr. QB Ben DiNucci running the show behind a retooled offensive line. The defense on the other hand, might be better overall (13.9 ppg allowed, 3 shutouts).  There’s been a few more bumps in the road than most anticipated yet James Madison is still thought of as a serious threat to make it to Frisco for a third straight year. The Dukes began their playoff run last week by shutting down Delaware en route to a 20-6 1st Round win over the Hens.

Colgate Offense vs James Madison Defense

The biggest question heading into this game for Colgate is the health of starting quarterback Grant Breneman (168 ypg 5 TD, 3 INT passing, 263 yards rushing 6 TD). The sophomore signal injured his shoulder against Fordham on November 3rd which caused him to miss the final two games of the regular season (@ Lehigh, @ Army). Senior Sage Atwood did an admirable job filling in but does not possess the arm talent and overall command of the offense that Breneman does. The general belief is that Breneman will be ready to go. If Breneman is in fact healthy and capable of attacking the Duke defense with his arm the Raiders ability to put up enough points to win greatly increases. While the Raider’s wide receiver duo of Thomas Ives (14 rec 243 yards 1 TD) and Owen Rockett (29 rec 591 yards TDs) won’t scare the talented James Madison secondary, they are capable of producing impact plays. The 6’5 Ives is especially dangerous in man coverage situations. There’s no question Coach Hunt will want to establish the run with the heart and soul of the Raider offense, RB James Holland (1,065 yards 12 TD). It will be up to the Raider’s big, physical offensive line to open up some holes against a very good Duke defensive front. Colgate must maintain balance on offense in order to effectively move the ball for four quarters.

holland
James Holland

The James Madison defense is quite possibly the best unit Colgate will have faced in 2018. Army’s “D” was physical and disciplined but the Black Knights lack the speed the Dukes possess; especially in the secondary. CAA Defensive Player of the Year Jimmy Moreland is a playmaking machine at cornerback. The R-Sr. has tremendous ball skills (5 INT, 10 pass breakups) as well as the ability to make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage (6 TFL). All-CAA Safety Adam Smith gives the Dukes another highly touted playmaker in the backend of the defense. The front 7 is led by a pair of All-CAA performers, 1st teamer DL Ron’Dell Carter (12 TFL, 7.5 sacks) and 2nd teamer Dimitri Holloway (leading tackler) at LB.  John Daka is a bit of a forgotten name along the DL despite leading the team in TFL (15.5).

jmu moreland
JMUsports.com/Jimmy Moreland

James Madison Offense vs Colgate Defense

The Duke offense is led by R-Jr. quarterback Ben DeNucci (2,083 yards 16 TD 7 INT passing, 357 yards 8 TDs). The Western Pennsylvania native has been extremely effective in his first year as the starter. He’s been under the microscope all season due to the inevitable comparisons to former JMU QB Bryan Schor. Making DeNucci’s life easier is the 3-headed monster at RB; Cordon Johnson (591 yards 4 TD), Trai Sharp (520 yards 4 TD) and Marchall Marcus (420 yards 6 TD). Johnson is the “household name” but Sharp and Marcus are just as dangerous. Riley Stapleton (63 rec 705 yards 7 TD) gives the Duke offense a legitimate number one WR. The 6’5 R-Jr. burst onto the national scene last year during James Madison’s run to the Title Game. Kyndel Dean (43 rec 587 yards 5 TD) and Jake Brown (34 rec 393 yards 2 TD) are great compliments to Stapleton out wide. The James Madison offensive line, while not as dominating as the previous two editions, is still quite formidable. Colgate’s front 7 on defense will be the best James Madison OL has faced since the season opener against FBS North Carolina State.

jmu stapleton
HeroSports/Riley Stapleton

Colgate defensive coordinator Paul Shaffner received great news when All-Patriot League DL Nick Wheeler (8 sacks, 14 TFL) was cleared to play after suffering a lower body injury in the regular season finale against Army. Like Breneman on offense, Wheeler’s importance to the Raider’s historically dominant defense can’t be emphasized enough. Unfortunately, for Shaffner and the ‘Gate defense, not all news was good news. Starting NT Cam Rohr is expected to miss the game with a leg injury. Not having the 6’1 315 pounder in the middle clogging up the running lanes could prove to be a critical loss. Jacob Escaro (6’4 280) and Chuck Moore (6’4 275) will need to stand up physically for four quarters against the big Duke OL. Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Holl (44 solo tackles, 13 TFL) leads a fantastic linebacker unit. The Raider linebackers have been great at tackling in space all season. Sure tackling is an absolute necessity against James Madison’s speedy skill players. The Colgate secondary features three 1st Team All-Patriot Leaguers; CB Tyler Castillo, CB Abu Daramy-Swaray and Safety Alec Wisniewski. It will be interesting to see who draws Stapleton in man coverage situations.

holl gate
gocolgateraiders.com/ T.J. Holl

Special Teams

Both teams feature strong special teams units. For Colgate, PK Chris Puzzi is the most dangerous weapon. The junior was 12-14 kicking field goals including going an impressive 3-5 from 40-49 yards. He’s the type of kicker you want lining up for a game winner. The Dukes’ game changer on special teams is punt returner D’Angelo Amos. The R-So returned 3 punts for TDs during the season.  A long Amos return that flips field position may prove to be the defining moment in a game like this.

Prediction

This battle took a huge twist on Wednesday when it was “leaked” that James Madison General Mike Houston had accepted the head gig at UNC-Charlotte. As Wednesday night became Thursday morning and more details emerged, it became clear that Coach Houston had only been offered the job. At this point, one must assume that come late Saturday morning Houston will be leading the Purple onto the Andy Kerr turf. Given the unique circumstances surrounding Houston’s tenuous status, this is a huge test for the James Madison program and its players. The Dukes are traveling to one of the more inhospitable locals in all of FCS to face a rested team who’s been waiting all season for this opportunity.

In a game that features two of the best defenses in FCS, mistakes and lapses in focus could prove fatal. James Madison has the weapons on offense to test the Raider defense like no one has this year. If the Duke OL can protect DeNucci, Stapleton and company should be able to find some room to work. It will be crucial for Colgate to make sure a 20 yard pass play doesn’t become a 65 yard TD. James Madison will try to hammer away at the interior of the Rohrless ‘Gate defense. How the Raiders hold up will go a long way in determining the outcome. If James Madison can maintain balance on offense Colgate’s defense might finally crack.

Colgate’s offense isn’t flashy but it is efficient. The Raiders possess the physical OL and workhorse RB that win cold weather games in December. Breneman is more than capable of extending plays and/or drives with his arm and legs. It will be important for Breneman to quickly acclimate himself to game speed. Colgate can’t afford to have their quarterback come out rusty. James Madison has the type of defense that will pounce on a mistake prone signal caller. Just ask South Dakota State about last year’s semifinal debacle in Harrisonburg.

This figures to be an old school defensive slugfest. James Madison has the more talented roster top to bottom but Colgate’s veteran 2-deep can rival anyone in the country. That combined with home field, an extra week to prepare and uncertainty surrounding the James Madison coaching staff gives the Raiders the slightest of edge. A late Chris Puzzi field goal proves to be the deciding score.

Colgate 20 James Madison 17

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1127 – RD2 PREVIEW

We have a shortened show this week due to technical problems. The technical problem here at The FCS Wedge goes by the moniker “Kris”. Lance carries on with it for us and Kris does pop back in for a word or two here and there.

The games all got previewed so listen up!

JSU @ Maine

JMU @ Colgate

Wofford @ Kennesaw

Duquesne @ SDSU

Montana State @ NDSU

SEMO @ Weber

Nicholls @ EWU

UNI @ Davis

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The FCS Wedge – 2018-1127 – RD1 REVIEW

Listen in to what Lance & Kris have going this week for thoughts on the action from last weekend. The Round 1 review skeleton looks like this.

Duquesne 31 Towson 10

Jacksonville State 34 East Tennessee State 27

Wofford 19 Elon 7

SEMO 28 Stony Brook 14

Montana State 35 Incarnate Word 14

James Madison 20 Delaware 6

Nichols 49 San Diego 30

Northern Iowa 16 Lamar 13

Topic 2: Elitism
Was Lamar/SLC better than we expected or did UNI play a bit softer than most FCS fans thought they would against a 3rd place SLC team?

Is Duquesne/NEC improving, have athletes, and enough experience to compete with the CAA rather than the CAA under performing this year?

Topic 3: What did we learn?

The SLC deserved it’s selections.

The CAA was overrated.

ETSU belonged

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MVFC Postseason Week 1 In Review

MVFC LogoAKA: Mistakes were made

The Scores

(for games directly relevant to MVFC teams)

Lamar – 13
Northern Iowa – 16

Incarnate Word – 14
Montana State – 35
Montana State will play at #1 North Dakota State next weekend

Duquesne – 31
Towson – 10
Duquesne will play at #5 South Dakota State next weekend

Lamar at Northern Iowa

The big question from most MVFC fans going into this game was…which UNI team will show up? The team that beat South Dakota State…or the team that got steamrolled by YSU and WIU? Well, it didn’t take long for us to get our answer, when Lamar’s QB Darrel Colbert Jr., on their second play from scrimmage, hit WR Kirkland Banks with a short pass that turned into a 73-yard TD play with the help of a good block and Bank’s ability to turn on the jets once he got a bit of space. The XP snap was awkward though, so they ended up trying to get the ball to the end zone, but failed, making it 6-0 for the Cardinals less than a minute into the game. UNI responded on their next drive using a 59-yard return by WR Deion McShane and a 26-yard run by RB Marcus Weymiller to get close enough for a 21-yard FG by kicker Austin Errthum. The next drive by Lamar took quite a bit longer than the first one (12 plays, 75 yards) but also ended in a TD pass, this time to TE Case Robinson, putting them up 13-3 halfway through the first quarter. Despite WR McShane returning the kickoff 47 yards, UNI was only able to net a total of 2 yards after a TD pass to WR Jaylin James was called back due to pass interference. The Panther defense did step things up at that point, but so did Lamar’s, with the next points not coming until nearly halfway through the 2nd quarter. A couple of solid runs by RB Trevor Allen got them close enough for Errthum to hit a 44-yard FG, making it 13-6. UNI started their next drive at their own 9 (and a false started pushed them back to the 4), but the Panther run game was able to move out to midfield. A couple of passes by UNI’s QB Eli Dunne to WRs Jaylin James and Jalen Rima got them the rest of the way, with the second being a 32-yard TD pass to a wide open Rima to tie things up at 13. Lamar’s final drive of the half ended in a long pass to the end zone that was intercepted by UNI DB Isaiah Nimmers, making the halftime score 13-13.

In the second half, Lamar seemed to have an easier time moving the ball, but both teams had a hard time holding on to the ball. Lamar got down to the UNI 17 on one drive fairly early on, but on a run by RB Myles Wanza, UNI DL Bryce Douglas forced a fumble that was recovered by UNI DB Korby Sander. A few drives later, the Panthers were just outside their own red zone, when a Dunne pass was batted up into the air by Lamar DE Dedrick Garner and caught by LB Chaston Brooks, giving the Cardinals the ball at UNI’s 21. Their drive would only go backwards for a net -4 yards and they missed a 42-yard FG wide right to keep the score tied. A few minutes into the 4th quarter, Northern Iowa was able to get down to the Lamar 17 yard line, and kicker Errthum hit a FG from 35 yards out to take a slim 3-point lead. Lamar stalled out on their next drive, after a sack by LB Rickey Neal Jr. put them at 4th and 15. On the kick, however, Lamar took a gamble, direct snapping the ball to DE Brandon Arnold, catching the Panthers off guard and picking up 23 yards. A 28-yard pass to WR Jawun Ruffin got them into the red zone, but UNI’s Christian Jegen was able to force a second fumble in the red zone, this one also recovered by DB Sander, keeping the Cardinals out of the end zone once again. Lamar’s defense halted the Panther offense just outside of FG range. Despite starting back at their own 14, Lamar moved quickly down the field, using a 47-yard pass to WR Taylor Givens to eventually get them down to the UNI 13, although a sack moved them back to the 19. The 36-yard FG attempt was missed to the right again and despite a solid drive…once again Lamar failed to put points on the board. Nearing the end of the game, UNI spent most of their next drive running the ball, so that by the time the Cardinals got it back, they only had 15 seconds left to go, at their own 26, with no timeouts remaining. Lamar’s QB Colbert was sacked on the first play, eating most of the time and forcing him to spike the ball with what appeared to be about a half second left (close enough that the refs had to review it to make sure time hadn’t expired). The final play was a pass that went about 115 yards and was tossed around to a couple of Lamar players before a lateral hit the ground and was fallen on by a couple of UNI and LU players, ending the game with Northern Iowa coming away with the 16-13 victory.

https://twitter.com/UNIFootball/status/1066499600796794880

UNI PK Austin Errthum

UNI QB Eli Dunne had 107 yards passing with 1 TD and 1 interception off the batted pass. The RBs had a solid day, with Marcus Weymiller running for 128 yards and Trevor Allen with 112 yards. WR Jaylin James led the team in receiving yards with 55 on 4 catches, but WR Jalen Rima had the sole Panther TD and picked up 32 yards on that one catch. WR Deion McShane had a couple of short catches in the receiving game, but was instrumental in the kick return game, with two kickoff returns for a total of 109 yards. PK Austin Errthum’s contributions were significant in such a low-scoring affair, hitting FGs from 21, 44, and 35 yards out, successfully kicking the one XP attempt (so, he accounted for 10 of the 16 points for UNI), kicking off 5 times with 4 touchbacks (although one kick went out of bounds) and averaging 63 yards per kickoff. LB Duncan Ferch led the Panthers with 10 tackles (3 solo) and 2 qb hurries. DL Elerson Smith had 2 sacks in the game, while LBs Rickey Neal, Bryce Flater, and Alfonso Lambert had 1 sack each. DB Korby Sander had two fumble recoveries to go along with 5 tackles and DB Isaiah Nimmers had an interception.

Lamar QB Darrel Colbert Jr.

Lamar QB Darrel Colbert Jr. threw for 268 yards with 2 TDs and 1 interception including 77 yards and 1 TD to WR Kirkland Banks. WR Case Robinson had the other TD reception and 34 yards. On the ground, RB Myles Wanza led the team with 85 yards. QB Colbert had 50 positive yards on running plays, but lost 37 yards on those 5 UNI sacks which negated much of it. Lamar DB Lane Taylor led the Cardinals with 14 tackles (5 solo). LB Chaston Brooks had 7 tackles and caught the interception, and DE Daniel Crosley had 6 tackles including a sack. Punter Tyler Slaydon had 3 punts that averaged 52 yards per kick and 1 that dropped inside the 20.

Lamar ends their win streak at 6 and their season at 7-5 overall.
Northern Iowa is 7-5 with the win, and they will head out west to take on #6 UC Davis next weekend.

How’d I Do?

Well, I thought UNI would kinda run away with things in the second half, winning 34-14. They were able to run the ball pretty well, but Lamar kept them out of the end zone in the second half. Luckily for the Panthers, Lamar couldn’t seem to stop shooting themselves in the feet with turnovers and missed FGs costing them the game and their first playoff win. I have to give credit to Lamar for being able to move the ball pretty well against UNI’s defense, but anyone who has watched a bit of UNI this season knows that the UNI team that showed up today was not anything close to as good as we’ve seen the Panthers play (like against SDSU). There were a lot of mistakes from both teams, to the point where it felt like neither team really wanted to win sometimes. The Panthers were able to claw out one more FG, which was just enough to win.

Next Weekend

The top 8 seeded teams get into the mix next weekend and there’ll be three MVFC teams in action, with Montana State heading to #1 North Dakota State, Duquesne also making a trip to the Dakotas facing off against #5 South Dakota State, and the previously-mentioned Northern Iowa traveling to #6 UC Davis.

The FCS Wedge – 2018-1120 – RD1 PREVIEW

TOPIC 1:

Round 1 previews

Delaware @ James Madison

Incarnate Word @ Montana State

Duquesne @ Towson

Elon @ Wofford

Lamar @ Northern Iowa

Stony Brook @ Southeast Missouri State

East Tennessee State @ Jacksonville State

San Diego @ Nicholls State

TOPIC 2:
Three Big Questions

1. Who’s on upset alert in the opening round? (With the exception of Elon and Wofford these are all 2-3 score spreads by the odds makers.)

2. Which of the teams playing on opening weekend have the best shot to make a deep run?

3. Who’s gonna win? The picks ensue…

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