The FCS Wedge

All seven Patriot League teams are in action this weekend after Colgate-Villanova got the 34th season of Patriot League football started last Saturday.

Saint Francis (0-0) at Lehigh (0-0) 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium Bethlehem, PA

Live Stream: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: For the second straight year St. Francis makes the 4 hour trek from Loretto to Bethlehem to face Lehigh in the season opener. The Mountain Hawks snuck past the Red Flashes 21-19 last season thanks to a blocked field goal as time expired. St. Francis was picked 6^th in the preseason NEC poll on the heels of last year’s 4-7 campaign. The Red Flashes are starting several new faces at the skill positions on offense.  As a result, they might lack  the weapons and experience to test Lehigh’s questionable “D”.

Lehigh’s offense must contend with a veteran St. Francis defense that returns six starters from a unit that was statistically (290.3 ypg in’18) among the best in FCS last season. Tyler Monaco made his first career start against St. Francis last year so he got a taste of what he’ll be going up against. The Mountain Hawks talent and experience on offense should ultimately prove to be the difference.

The Pick: Lehigh 30 Saint Francis 20

Georgetown (0-0) at Davidson (0-0) 1 P.M. Richardson Stadium Davidson, NC

Live Stream: GUHoyas.com

The Need to Know: Georgetown’s most eagerly anticipated football season in at least two decades kicks off Saturday against the Davidson Wildcats. The Wildcats themselves enter the 2019 season with some momentum of their own following last year’s 6-5 record. Davidson was picked to finish 5^th in the 10 team Pioneer Football League. The Hoyas must contend with a Wildcat offense that led FCS in ypg (561) and rushing (442). Davidson’s powerful rushing attack is led by Wesley Dugger (1,241 yards in ’18).

Georgetown is the deeper, more talented team but Davidson has a chance to make this game interesting if their offense can pick up where it left off last year. Getting the “O” going won’t be easy against a Hoya defense which should be one of the better units in FCS.

The Pick: Georgetown 37 Davidson 24

Bucknell (0-0) at Temple (0-0) 3 P.M. Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA

Live Stream: ESPN3

The Need to Know: The Dave Cecchini era officially gets underway when the Bison travel to the “City of Brotherly Love” to take on the Temple Owls (FBS). It’s the first meeting between the two Pennsylvania schools since 1970. The Keystone State schools battled annually from 1927-1970 for the “Old Shoe Trophy”. Temple was picked 4^th in the AAC East following last season’s 8-5 mark. Like the Bison, the Cherry and White will be led by a first year head coach. Rod Carey headed to North Broad Street after spending six years at Northern Illinois as head coach.

The Owls are the far superior team in every aspect. They’re led on offense by NFL prospect Anthony Russo (2,563 yards 14 TD 14 INT) at quarterback and a veteran OL. The Bison will need to possess the ball and hope for several turnovers to come their way in order to be competitive for 60 minutes. Odds are this one gets out of hand in a hurry.

The Pick: Temple 59 Bucknell 13

#13 Colgate (0-1) at Air Force (0-0) 3:30 P.M. ET Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO

Live Stream: ESPN3

The Need to Know: Colgate heads to Colorado to take on Air Force for the second time in the last six seasons (AF 38-13 in ’13). The Raiders will be trying to bounce back from last week’s lopsided loss to Villanova while the Falcons will be kicking off their 2018 campaign. Air Force (5-7 in ’18) was picked to finish third in the Mount West Conference’s “Mountain Division”.  Their defense is led by two preseason all-league selections; DL Jordan Jackson and DB Jeremy Fejedelem. Offensively the Falcons return two capable quarterbacks (Isaiah Sanders/Donald Hammond III), a veteran RB and four offensive lineman. The pieces are in place for the Falcons option attack to be highly productive.

Colgate has a very tall task trying to avoid a 0-2 start against a potentially 8-9 win Air Force team at 6,000 feet. The Falcons are a perfect 23-0 all-time against 1-AA/FCS teams. The Raiders need to slow down the Air Force option attack and generate big plays on offense to have a chance of remaining competitive for 4 quarters.

The Pick: Air Force 51 Colgate 17

Holy Cross (0-0) at Navy (0-0) 3:30 P.M. Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Annapolis, MD

Live Stream: CBSsports.com

The Need to Know:  For the first time ever Holy Cross and Navy will do battle on the gridiron. Both teams enter 2019 looking to bounce back from rather disappointing 2018 seasons (Holy Cross 5-6/Navy 3-10). The Midshipmen were projected to finish 5^th in the AAC West Division following last year’s 10 loss season. Despite Navy’s struggles last year they continued to have one of the top rushing attacks in FBS (276 ypg). The Middies defense last in ’18 had a hard time keeping opponents off the scoreboard (35.5 ppg allowed) and remains a concern heading into the opener against the Crusaders.

If Holy Cross’s quarterback Connor Degenhardt can handle the jitters of making his first carrier start in a hostile environment the Crusaders have the weapons to move the ball on the Navy defense. The issue for Holy Cross will be the inexperienced defense trying to contain the Middies well-oiled triple-option offense.

The Pick: Navy 49 Holy Cross 27

Lafayette (0-0) at William & Mary (0-0) 6 P.M. Zable Stadium Williamsburg, VA

Live Stream: Flofootball.com

The Need to Know: Lafayette and William & Mary will meet for the fifth time (5 all-time meetings) in the last seven years Saturday evening in Williamsburg. The Leopards won the inaugural meeting in 2012 while the Tribe have won the last three contests (most recent 34-7 at Lafayette in ’15). This will be the first game the Tribe have played at the 1-AA/FCS  level (1982-present) without Jimmye Laycock as their head coach (1980-2018). Mike London, who led Richmond to the 2008 FCS National Title, takes over for Laycock. The Tribe finished 4-6 in Laycock’s final season and were picked to finish 11^th in the CAA this year. William & Mary has won 33 out of their last 35 games against non-conference FCS teams. Interestingly, the only two losses during that period came against Patriot League foes, Lafayette in 2012 and Colgate last season.

Both teams possessed anemic offenses (W&M 13 ppg/Laf 13.6 ppg) in 2018 and neither are expected to light it up this season. The defenses are the strength of the Tribe and Pards so the recipe is there for a low scoring game. The Tribe have the more talented roster top to bottom which should carry them to the win.

The Pick: William & Mary 21 Lafayette 13

Central Connecticut State (0-0) at Fordham (0-0) 6 P.M. Jack Coffey Field Bronx, NY

Live Stream: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: Perhaps the most intriguing game featuring a Patriot League team this weekend resides in the Bronx when the Devils and Rams meet for the third straight year. Central Connecticut State is expected to challenge for the NEC title (picked 3^rd in preseason poll) in Ryan McCarthy’s first season as head coach. The Devils “O” was the top scoring (33.8 ppg) unit in the NEC last season with McCarthy as the offensive coordinator. The unit returns a veteran offensive line and one of the best running backs in the NEC, Aaron Dawson (896 yards 13 TDs).

The outcome of this game might  boil down to the Devils excellent offensive line versus Fordham’s retooled d-line. Central Connecticut State is breaking in a new quarterback and figures to rely on the rushing attack to set the tone. This game feels like a toss-up on paper so the home team gets the slightest of edge.

The Pick: Fordham 27 Central Connecticut State 24

Lehigh Mountain Hawks

2019 Record: 3-8 (2-4)

Head Coach: Tom Gilmore, 1^st Season, Career Record (72-81, 41-40)

Last Patriot League Title: 2017

Last FCS Playoff Appearance: 2017

2019 Schedule

8/31 Saint Francis

9/7 @ Villanova

9/14 @ UC-Davis

9/21 BYE

9/28 Merrimack

10/5 @ Colgate

10/12 BYE

10/19 @ Fordham

10/26 Georgetown

11/2 Holy Cross

11/9 @ Bucknell

11/16 @ Sacred Heart

11/23 Lafayette

Overview

Former Holy Cross head coach (’04-’17) Tom Gilmore enters his first season as the commander of the Lehigh program. Gilmore takes over for Andy Coen who was unfortunately forced to retire due to Early-onset Alzheimer’s. To many, Gilmore was a surprising hire given the fact he was abruptly fired by Holy Cross midway through the 2017 season.  The Crusader program really struggled the last six years of his tenure after a promising first few seasons. He inherits a Lehigh program just two seasons removed from back-2-back Patriot League titles. Lehigh did struggle mightily in Coen’s last season as head coach. Effort and preparation were often lacking. Likely due to the strain the staff was under. The one thing that last season cannot excuse is the chronically terrible defense (35.9 ppg allowed in ’18).

If Gilmore wants the Mountain Hawks to make a run at a 13^th Patriot League Title the “D” must improve drastically. The schedule is tricky but negotiable relative to other teams in the league.

Offense

The 2018 offense entered the season with high hopes before ultimately crashing and burning in rather epic fashion (16.6 ppg). Between poor intangibles and subpar offensive line play the unit failed to gain traction outside of two games, Bucknell and Lafayette. This year there’s far more stability which should go a long way in increasing productivity. Lehigh’s skill position players are among the best in the league. The “Os” fate will come down to the line and offensive coordinator Scott Brisson’s ability to mesh with new quarterback Tyler Monaco.

Senior Tyler Monaco takes over for Brad Maybes as the Mountain Hawk’s quarterback. The Florida native is well versed in the offense and has gotten a few opportunities to acquire game experience. Monaco has the potential for a breakout year given Lehigh’s talent at the skill positions. Junior Addison Shoup is expected to back up Monaco.

The Mountain Hawks return an excellent wide receiver combo. Preseason All-PL selection Jorge Portorreal (55 rec 794 yards 3 TDs) led the conference in yards last season and finished second in receptions. Devon Bibbens (33 rec 576 yards 3 TDs) gives Lehigh an extremely dangerous #2 WR. Sophomores Austin Damach and De’Shun Mickens provide the “O” with good size (both 6’3) and depth out wide. Senior Matt Prendergast and sophomore Alex Snyder will likely battle it out for time at TE. Freshman Ian O’Connor has the potential to see meaningful reps as well.

Lehigh must replace one of the best running backs in program history, Dominic Bragalone. Trying to fill those shows will be sophomore Rashawn Allen (337 yards 3 TDs in ‘18). The Georgia native showcased tremendous talent as Bragalone’s primary backup in 2018.  Junior Evan Chadbourn and sophomore Peter Lucas should also see significant time.

The biggest question is in the trenches. The Mountain Hawk’s OL struggled to run and pass block throughout last season. Injuries were partly to blame for a lack of continuity. Even so, far too many one-on-one battles were lost. Seniors Nick Rosen (G) and Alex Motley (T) along with juniors Chris Fournier (T) and Matt Fest (G) are expected to start. Justin Gurth (So) and Ryan Oneidas (Jr) will be in the running for the center spot. There are some quality pieces in place but it ultimately has to produce in order for the offense to return to form.

Defense

The Lehigh defense has been among the very worst in FCS for the better part of the last 5-6 years. During that time it has surrendered points (35 ppg ’15, 26 ppg ’16, 41 ppg ’17, 35 ppg ’18) and yards (454 ypg ’15, 418 ypg ’16, 477 ypg ’17, 446 ypg ‘18) in bountiful proportions. Defensive coordinator Mike Kashurba has his work cut out in his second year on the staff. He was Gilmore’s DC at Holy Cross. The Mountain Hawks return an excellent secondary and a solid group of line backers. The DL has experience but depth and size remain a major concern.

If the “D” is going to make a legitimate improvement under the new staff the secondary will likely be leading the way. The Mountain Hawks return a loaded defensive backfield despite failing to place a single player on the Preseason All-PL Team. Fifth year senior Sam McCloskey (77 TT in ‘18) and Riley O’Neil (62 TT in ‘18) have been mainstays on the defense since they arrived at Lehigh. The cornerback position is set with senior Marquis Wilson and junior Jaylen Floyd returning as starters. Depth and experience could be an issue as the season progresses.

The linebacker unit has the potential to be solid so long as the injury bug does not hit. There’s not a lot of experience waiting in the wings. Senior Keith Woetzel (6.5 TFL in ‘18) led the team in tackles last season returns to anchor the inside. Juniors Erik Slater, Pete Haffner, Nate Norris and Jon Seighman will be the major contributors. Riley O’Neil is expected to play the hybrid LB/S position that has become quite common in recent years. Freshman Jackson Michaels has the size and skill to work his way into the rotation as the season progresses.

The biggest question/concern is along the defensive front. The recent editions have failed to stop the run and struggled to pressure the quarterback; aka “the perfect storm”. The 2019 defense’s fate lies with the lines ability to significantly improve in those two crucial areas. Fifth year senior Juwan Morrow (5.5 TFL in ’18) and senior Davis Maxie (32 TT) will likely start at end. Sophomores Bartek Rybka and Michael Laurencelle will see time in the middle of Kashurba’s 3-4 defense. Juniors Jack Kircher and Zac Troxell should also see significant action. Senior Colin Nace will have an important role once he returns from injury.

Special Teams

Lehigh should have one of the better return units in the Patriot League. Jorge Portorreal and Jaylen Floyd are experienced returners with big play potential. The kicking game on the other hand figures to be much more of an adventure. Do it all Ed Mish graduated leaving the kicking duties to senior Alex Henning and/or Dylan Van Dusen. Henning saw significant time in 2017 when Mish missed time with an injury.

Overview

Lehigh enters 2019 with the feel of an ultimate wildcard. There are still plenty of players left from the Mountain Hawks 2016 and 2017 Patriot League Championship teams which provides a nice intangible. The Mountain Hawks continue to have one of, if not the most athletically gifted roster in the league. But there are still questions along the offensive and defensive line which is never a good thing. Tom Gilmore’s handling of the transition will also play a major role in how the 2019 season unfolds.

For Lehigh football, last season was one they wish never happened for multiple reasons. The struggles on and off the field the program faced were well documented. The Mountain Hawks now get to turn the page to a whole new chapter. The Mountain Haws should be considerably better under Gilmore’s watch in the short term. Odds are the defense will still be the Achilles heel to some extent. The schedule is tricky without being truly difficult which should open the door for a winning record.

How he and the staff gels will determine Lehigh’s ceiling beyond 2019.

Prediction: 6-5 (3-3)

Lafayette Leopards

2018 Record: 3-8

Head Coach: John Garrett, 3^rd year (6-16, 5-7)

Last Patriot League Title: 2013

Last Playoff Appearance:  2013

2019 Schedule

8/31 @ William & Mary

9/7 @ Monmouth

9/14 Sacred Heart

9/21 @ Albany

9/28 Penn

10/5 BYE

10/11 @ Princeton

10/19 @ Georgetown

10/26 Bucknell

11/2 Fordham

11/9 @ Holy Cross

11/16 Colgate

11/23 Lehigh

Overview

The 2010’s go down in history as the decade in Lafayette football’s long history. As the decade nears its conclusion the Leopard’s record stands at a cringe worthy 30-70. They have failed to notch a single winning season through the first nine years of the 2010s. The lone highlights for the Leopards to this point are a surprising run to the 2013 Patriot League that included two upset wins over nationally ranked Fordham and Lehigh along with the 2014 win over the Mountain Hawks at Yankee Stadium. This current “debacled decade” comes after the program enjoyed considerable success from 2004 through the 2009 season.

If Lafayette wants to close out this decade on a high note and build momentum for the 2020s the offense must improve significantly in John Garrett’s third year. There’s plenty of experience at key positions so the potential is there for an increase in productivity. The defense returns 2 Preseason All-PL selections but must overcome depth issues along the defensive line and at linebacker if it wants to be more formidable than last year’s edition (29 ppg allowed). All three phases of the team will be tested by a challenging 12 game slate.

Offense

Lafayette’s offense has been among the very worst in all of FCS the last two seasons (12 ppg in ’17, 13 ppg in ’18). Head Coach John Garrett has full control of the “O” so much of the unit’s struggles fall on his shoulders. Garrett and Kort Shankweiler (QB Coach) must get improved play from the quarterback position if the offense is going become more productive. The rushing attack took a step forward in 2018 (87 ypg) after totaling an anemic 430 (39 ypg) yards in 2017.

Junior Sean O’Malley has started every game for Lafayette since he matriculated to the Eastern Pennsylvania school from his hometown of Beverly Hills California. O’Malley struggled for the majority of the 2018 campaign (158 ypg 4 TDs 12 INTs) but seems firmly entrenched as the starter heading into the season opener against William & Mary. Fellow junior Cole Northrup provides an experienced back up. Sophomore Troy Fisher and freshman Keegan Shoemaker could find themselves battling it out for reps if O’Malley continues to struggle.

If the quarterback play improves Lafayette has the weapons at wide receiver to have a solid passing attack. The top three pass catchers (Pearson, Revere and Spigner) from 2018 return. Senior and Preseason All-PL selection Nick Pearson (41 rec 592 yards) gives the Leopards a true #1 out wide. Fellow senior Julian Spigner (20 rec 188 yards) and junior Quinn Revere (38 rec 336 yards 2 TDs) from a trio capable of big things. Freshman Jordan Hull has the talent to work his way into a meaningful role as the season progresses.  Jake Taggert appears to have the inside track start at TE. The junior missed the majority of last season with an injury. Senior Demetrius Breadlove made the switch from defensive line to TE during the offseason.

The offensive line has contributed to the Leopards troubles over the last few years. First year OL coach Christian Pace has a relatively experienced group with good size to work with. Senior Jake Marotti (Preseason All-PL) and junior Gavin Barclay are expected to be the starting tackles. Juniors Taron Hampton and John Burke will likely be at center and guard respectively. There are several sophomores (Josh Roberts, Ben Wild, Joe Grundhoffer, Casey McCollum) that will be in the mix for the other starting guard spot and/or rotational playing time. Freshman Nathan Slater is worth keeping an eye on as the season moves along.

The ground attack went from inept in 2017 (39 ypg) to simply bad in 2018 (87 ypg).  The lack of production is not due to subpar talent. It comes down to the OL, the ability to pass and Garrett’s play calling. Junior Selwyn Simpson (352 yards 2 TDs)is locked into the starting role. Simpson is a skilled, powerful runner who could have a breakout season if those three things improve. Senior Mike Dunn and junior J.J Younger will also see significant time. Younger is the pass catching threat out of the backfield.

Defense

Lafayette has some quality individual talent on defense but overall depth could become a serious problem if there’s any amount of attrition. The “D” allowed a less than ideal 29 ppg in 2018. To be fair, the unit was often put in bad spots last season thanks to the offense’s struggles.

Heading into the season the strength of the defense is the secondary. Preseason All-PL selection Yasir Thomas (48 TT) will be the leader of the defense from the safety position. A pair of seniors, Eric Mitchell (2 TFL) and Tre Jordan (26 TT), provide plenty of experience at cornerback. Senior Colin Thorne, sophomore Romeo Wykle and freshman DeRon Gilbert will likely battle it out for playing time at the other safety position. There’s several sophomore and freshman that will compete for playing at time at CB.

Lafayette must replace their top two tacklers from last year at linebacker. Juniors Major Jordan (66 TT) and Ryan Dickens appear to be locks for two of the three starting positions in defensive coordinator Manny Rojas’s 4-3 scheme.  Keith Earle’s move from DE to LB gives the Leopards a big, physical presence in the second level of the “D”. Sophomores Ty Hranicka and Christian Holler should see significant reps.

The defensive line is led by Preseason All-PL DE Malik Hamm (15 TFL). The sophomore had a spectacular freshman year and seems destined for national honors before too long. With Breadlove’s and Earle’s position change there’s no clear cut favorites at the other three starting spots. Senior Ryan Barnett, junior Harrison Greenhill, sophomore Ian Grayson saw significant time last year. Lafayette has only seven DL listed on their roster so depth is an obvious concern. Another issue is the lack of size along the front; only one player (Grayson) listed over 265 pounds. Given the limited depth and size up front there’s a good chance the Leopards will once again struggle to stop of the run (154 ypg allowed in ’18).

Special Teams

Junior Jeffrey Kordenbrock is a talented kicker who can handle all three responsibilities if need be. Kordenbrock was especially impressive kicking field goals last year (7/11 overall, 5/9 from 40-49). J.J. Younger has plenty of experience returning kicks.

Outlook

It’s certainly not a reach to suggest that this is an extremely important season for John Garrett and the Lafayette football program. Garrett came to Easton with the expectation that he would get the offense rolling again after it hit a wall in Frank Tavani’s final few seasons.  Amazingly, the “O” has actually gotten worse in Garrett’s first two years at the helm. It likely won’t improve until the head coach and quarterback are able to get on the same page. Garrett must be willing to make a switch at QB if the incumbent Sean O’Malley continues to be ineffective.

When the dust settles odds are Lafayette will close out the 2010s without a winning season. The offense seems destined to struggle to score until the OL and quarterback raise their level of play. The defense has some nice pieces but overall suffers from a lack of size in the trenches and depth at each level. Add in a schedule that is extremely challenging and the recipe is there for another ugly season on College Hill.

Prediction: 2-10 (1-5)

The 2019 Patriot League football season kicks off Saturday afternoon when Villanova heads to the beautiful Chenango Valley to take on defending Patriot League Champion Colgate. This is the second time in the last 3 seasons that Colgate has opened up a week early. The Raiders made the pilgrimage to California in 2017 to take on Cal Poly.

All seven league members will be in action next weekend.

Villanova (0-0) at #16 Colgate (0-0) 12 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium Hamilton, NY

TV: CBS Sports Network

The Pick: Colgate seeks their 4^th straight win over an opponent from the CAA when the Raiders kickoff the 2019 campaign against Villanova. The Wildcat have dominated opponents (losses, ’87 Holy Cross, ’89 Holy Cross, ’06 Lehigh and ’13 Fordham) from the Patriot League to the tune of 32-4 since the conference’s inception in 1986. Villanova has won 8 in a row against Patriot League foes since their loss to Fordham in 2013.

Villanova has failed to notch winning records in each of Mark Ferrante’s first two seasons despite performing well in September against out of conference opponents. The Wildcats will be turning to Campbell transfer Daniel Smith to lead the offense in 2019 (25 ppg in ’18). The unit has bogged down against better opponent in recent years. The Wildcats were picked 9^th in the preseason CAA Poll and failed to land a player on the All-CAA Team.

Despite not having a star laden 2-deep, Villanova is still loaded with talent. LB Drew Wiley and DB Jaquan Amos lead a very sound defense. The Wildcats chances will ultimately come down to Smith’s ability to move the offense against Colgate’s still stout “D”. The turnover battle and special teams will be huge in a game like this. The Raiders have a decided advantage in special teams.

Colgate 24 Villanova 20