The FCS Wedge

As the fall nights continue to get colder in the Northeast, the Patriot League football race is really starting to heat up. There’s no question the league had a horrible September and lacks a natioonally relevant team but now that conference season is here it’s all about a single goal, win it and get to the playoffs. The Fordham (0-0)-Georgetown (0-0) game should be a large piece to the puzzle. They Hoyas have never won the Patriot League Title or participated in the FCS playoffs. Following their loss to Lehigh, defending champion Colgate (0-1) is in a must win out to repeat position as they play host to Bucknell. The Bison are in the same spot after losing their league opener to Holy Cross. Lafayette faces their final non-conference hurdle this week as they travel to “Old Nassua” to take on a Top 25 Tiger team. Lehigh is enjoying their second bye of the season following the thrilling win over Colgate last weekend.

Friday Night

Lafayette (0-5, 0-0) at #20 Princeton (3-0) 7 P.M. Princeton Stadium; Princeton, NJ

Live TV: ESPNU

The Need to Know: Lafayette makes the short trip to Central New Jersey to take on Princeton in a nationally televised game. The Leopards will try to end a 10 game losing streak (last win 2003) to the Tigers. It will be a tall task since Bob Surace’s  team is currently riding a 13 game winning streak which is the second longest in FCS (NDSU 26 games). The 2019 edition of the Tigers might not be quite as good as last year’s version (finished #11T) but it’s still very much worthy of its Top 25 ranking. The offense (42 ppg) hasn’t missed much of a beat with quarterback Kevin Davidson having an excellent start to the season (74% comp, 331 ypg, 10 TD 1INT). WR Andrew Griffin has been the big play threat in the passing game; 22 ypc/ 5 TD. The Princeton defense is no slouch either (13.3 ppg allowed). They will be tested by the Leopard’s talent quarterback Keegan Shoemaker (257 ypg 8 TD 5 INT).

Lafayette is coming off a much needed bye week after their 0-5 start. They’ve now lost 8 straight games dating back to last season. If Lafayette head coach John Garrett wants to defeat his alma mater for the first time the Leopard defense (34 ppg allowed) must have their best game of the season. The Tigers will throw all sorts of formations and personnel groupings at the ‘Pard “D”. If the Lafayette defense is not prepared things will get away from them in a hurry.

Princeton has dominated Lafayette (43-3-4) historically. That trend will continue under the lights at Princeton Stadium.

Prediction: Princeton 52 Lafayette 27

Saturday

Holy Cross (2-3, 1-0) at Brown (1-2) 12:30 P.M. Brown Stadium; Providence, RI

Live Stream: ESPN+

The Need to Know: After notching their first Patriot League win of the season, Holy Cross jumps out of conference to take on the Brown Bears. The Crusaders used a strong defensive performance to defeat Bucknell 21-14 last weekend. The Holy Cross “O” remains a work in progress as quarterback Connor Degenhardt (189 ypg 2 TD and 2 INT) has yet to find his stride. If the Crusaders want to capture their first Patriot League Title since 2009 the offense must find a way to create more explosive plays. Facing a Bear defense that is surrendering 34 ppg and 364 yards through the air could be just what the doctor ordered.

The Bears offense is led by do everything quarterback E.J. Perry. The junior signal caller is averaging 255 yards passing and an impressive 109 more on the ground (8.6 ypr). Perry’s ability to attack a defense with his arm and his legs is a huge asset when facing a unit as good the Crusader’s. The Holy Cross defense has the pieces to be one of, if not the top unit in the PL. If they’re able to contain Perry the odds of a Brown win greatly diminish. Brown was picked to finish last in the Ancient Eight following last year’s disastrous 1-9 campaign.

This is an interesting game because it’s been tough to gauge just how good either team is. Holy Cross is 2-1 against FCS competition but have yet to play a complete game; especially on offense. Brown has a five point win over Providence neighbor Bryant and two losses against respectable opponents (Harvard/URI). If the Crusader defense is able to limit Perry’s damage they should be able to manufacture just enough points to escape the “Renaissance City” with a victory.

Prediction: Holy Cross 27 Brown 20

Bucknell (0-5, 0-1) at Colgate (0-6, 0-1) 1 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium; Hamilton, NY

Live Stream: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: A lengthy losing streak will mercifully come to an end when Bucknell and Colgate tango in Central New York Saturday afternoon. The Bison are mired in a now school record 11 game losing streak. To be fair, the struggling Bucknell program has faced a difficult schedule to start the season. Between the schedule and roster deficiencies, first year head coach Dave Cecchini inherited a very tough situation in Lewisburg. His Bison squad did play extremely hard in their 21-14 loss to Holy Cross last weekend. The offense (13 ppg) was able to get the ground attack going last week (139 yards) thanks in large part to Chad Freshnock’s strong performance (14 carries 78 yards 1 TD).  The “O” simply failed to make the key plays in the 4^th quarter that were needed to win. The defense (41 ppg allowed) played their best game of the season against a rather limited Crusader offense.

Colgate’s season continues to spiral downward (7 game losing streak) in shocking fashion. The Raiders 11 game league winning streak ended last week against Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks were also the most recent league foe to defeat (10/7/17) the Raiders prior to last week. The Colgate offense (11 ppg) failed to produce despite the return of quarterback Grant Breneman. The lack of a running attack (88 ypg) by traditional Colgate standards is the biggest issue. The talented Malik Twyman (43 ypg) is playing through an ankle injury which combined with Breneman’s own injury woes and poor line play have caused the “O” to come to a grinding halt. If Breneman’s health allows him to be more effective running the ball against Bucknell the Raiders will be able to grind out yards. Nick Wheeler (10 TFL) and the Colgate defense should have little trouble containing the Bison offense.

For a multitude of reason’s Colgate is off to their worst start since 1995 (finished 0-11). Thankfully for the Raiders they get to square off against a Bison team that might be nearing full “rock bottom” mode. This game should be competitive with the home team making a few big plays in all three phases to win.

Prediction: Colgate 24 Bucknell 13

Fordham (2-4, 0-0) at Georgetown (4-1, 0-0) 2 P.M. Cooper Filed; Washington D.C.

Live Stream: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: It might be only early October but there will still be major Patriot League Title implications on the line when Fordham and Georgetown clash in our nation’s capital. The Hoyas are off to their best start through five games since 1999 when they began 5-0 en-route to a 9-2 season. That was Georgetown’s last season as a full time member of the MAAC (no longer sponsors football). Expectations were high heading into 2019 and so far Rob Sgarlata’s team has met them. Georgetown is once again led by an excellent defense (9.6 ppg allowed) that has the potential to be the best they’ve had since joining the Patriot League. The offense (34 ppg) continues to be “good enough” behind the two headed monster of Gunther Johnson (5 Pass TD/3 Rush TD) and Joseph Brunell (3 Pass TD) at quarterback.

Fordham has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride this season. They’ve been trading a well-played game with a clunker through the first six contests of 2019. Despite having one of the best linebacker corps in FCS, the defense remains an enigma. The unit has struggled for several years dating back to Moorhead’s tenure.  The Ram offense (23 ppg) hasn’t exactly lit it up either but overall they’ve been solid/good enough. Tim DeMorat (204 ypg 11 TD 5 INT) and his receivers will need to be at their best against the stout Hoya defense if Fordham wants to pull off the huge win. Running back Zach Davis likely won’t find much daylight against an excellent Hoya front 7.

This is a really intriguing game. Fordham has shown the potential to be a legit contender in the Patriot League but their inability to put forth consistent effort week to week is concerning. The Hoyas on the other hand have been extremely consistent since their season opening loss to Davidson. With that in mind, Georgetown seems destined to make it three straight wins against opponents (Columbia & Cornell) from the “Empire State”.

Prediction: Georgetown 26 Fordham 21

Week 7 of the Patriot League football season sees conference battles commence. Colgate’s title defense begins against nemesis Lehigh in Hamilton and Holy Cross makes the long bus ride to Central Pennsylvania to battle Bucknell. Most would agree the start of league play is very much welcomed after what was a dreadful opening month of non-conference performances. There are two intriguing non-conference games set for Saturday. Fordham (vs Yale) and Georgetown (vs Cornell) each take on Ivy League opponents to start the month of October. The Hoyas and Rams are both coming off of quality wins last week. 0-5 Lafayette is on a much needed bye.

Fordham (2-3, 0-0) at Yale (2-0) 1 P.M. Yale Bowl; New Haven, CT

Live Streaming: ESPN+

The Need to Know: Fordham makes the 90 minute journey to the historic Yale Bowl to battle the Eli in an intriguing non-conference battle. The Rams are coming off a hard fought 23-16 win over Richmond. It was Fordham’s first win over a team from the vaunted CAA since they crushed Rhode Island 54-7 in 2014. The Rams offense was led by the strong running of Zach Davis (102.2 ypg) and the efficient passing of Tim DeMorat (185 ypg 8 TD 4 INT) in the win over the Spiders. Defensively, Fordham yielded 298 yards through the air but stuffed the Richmond ground game (65 yards). Sophomore LB Ryan Greenhagen (37 solo tackles, 10.5 TFL) is having a monster year so far for the Ram defense.

The preseason Ivy League favorite Eli are off to an expected 2-0 start with workmanlike wins over Holy Cross (23-10) and Cornell (27-16). Despite returning a plethora of talented skill players the Yale offense has yet to explode. The Kurt Rawling-Reed Klubnick (64 ypg receiving) connection has produced but not to the extent many expected. There should be ample opportunities to get things rolling against a Ram secondary that yields 13.4 yards per catch. Yale won the last meeting 41-10 in 2017. Current Fordham head coach Joe Conlin was the Eli’s offensive coordinator (’12-’17) at that time.

This game will tell a lot about both teams. Fordham is a field goal away from being 3-1 against FCS competition. The Eli are 2-0 as expected but have yet to play their best football. Yale has the talent edge, although it’s not as significant as some might think, and home field which should carry them to the win.

Prediction: Yale 30 Fordham 27

Lehigh (1-3, 0-0) at Colgate (0-5, 0-0) 1 P.M. Andy Kerr Stadium; Hamilton, NY

Live Stream: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: For the second time in the last three seasons (2017) Colgate and Lehigh will enter their annual grudge match with losing records. This has traditionally been a showcase game between the Patriot League’s two most successful programs (Colgate 10 Titles, Lehigh 11 Titles). However, the stakes are much different in 2019. Unless the Mountain Hawks and/or Raiders experiences a drastic turn around it’s quite possible Saturday’s battle in Central New York will determine who stays out of the league basement.

Colgate’s fate might come down to who starts at quarterback. There’s a sense that Grant Breneman will give it a go and see how his lower leg injury holds up. If he’s able to contribute for 4 quarters the Raiders odds of getting their first win of 2019 drastically go up. Their struggling defense (38.6 ppg allowed) should be able to get back on track against a Mountain Hawk “O” that has been among the worst in FCS. Now that league play is underway Colgate’s core of talented, experienced players (Breneman, Wheeler, Daramy-Swaray, Ioanellli etc.) need to have more of an impact if there’s going to be a season saving turnaround.

Like Colgate, Lehigh has a serious question mark at quarterback. Tyler Monaco (182 ypg, 2 TD 4 INT in ‘19) really struggled against Merrimack in the first half. Head Coach Tom Gilmore’s decision to insert junior Andrew Shoup in the second quarter (173 passing yards, 36 yard TD run) gave the offense just enough of a spark to allow Lehigh to escape with a 10-3 win. It’s likely that Monaco and Shoup will both see time against the Raiders. The improved Mountain Hawk defense (24 ppg allowed) will need another strong outing to offset the offense’s struggles.

As bad as Colgate has looked to start the year they still feel like solid favorites over a Lehigh team/program trying to find their way under first year head coach Tom Gilmore. If Breneman plays the Raiders should be able to grind out enough points to win by 2 or 3 possessions. Should the Preseason PL Offensive Player of the Year be unable to go this game could end up being a race to double-digits.

Prediction: Colgate 24 Lehigh 13

Holy Cross (1-3, 0-0) at Bucknell (0-4) 2 P.M. Christy Matthewson Memorial Stadium; Lewisburg, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: The Crusaders travel to Lewisburg seeking revenge  against the Bison for last year’s surprising 19-16 loss at Fitton Field.  Bucknell’s 3 point victory would end up being the only thing that separated themselves from a winless 2018 campaign. The Bison have now lost 16 out of their last 17 games dating back to the end of the 2017 season. If they want to end their 10 game losing streak the offense must find some traction (13 ppg). The Bucknell “O” did some good things last week against Princeton (23 points) in their 56-23 blowout loss to the Tigers. Quarterback Logan Bitikofer had his best game ever (268 yards passing, 3 Total TD) as a Bison which has to make first year head coach Dave Cecchini somewhat optimistic heading into league play.

Holy Cross is still trying to find out who they are after the first month of the season. They’ve been blown out by two FBS opponents, beat a New Hampshire team in a tough spot and had a ho-hum outing against Yale in a loss. The Crusaders would appear to have a defense capable of leading the team to a Patriot League title. The offense however, continues to be a major concern (8.2 ppg ). Preseason All-PL selection Domenic Cozier is averaging less than 30 ypg and quarterback Connor Degenhardt is barely completing 50% of his passes has thrown for just 1 TD. Offensive Coordinator Patrick Murphy must find a way to get more production from a unit that has talented skill players.

Holy Cross is the better team but until their offense is able to consistently move the ball they’ll be in a lot of close games. Despite the lopsided result, Bucknell should have gained some confidence last week against an excellent Princeton team. The Bison will put up a spirited effort but the Crusaders get their payback.

Prediction: Holy Cross 24 Bucknell 20

Georgetown (3-1, 0-0) at Cornell (0-2) 2 P.M. Schoellkopf Field; Ithaca, NY

Live Streaming: ESPN+

The Need to Know: Georgetown will try to get their second straight victory in the Empire State when they tangle with the Big Red in gorgeous Ithaca, NY. This will be the first meeting between the two academic powerhouses since 2007; a 45-7 Cornell win. The Hoyas are seeking their fourth straight victory which would be their longest winning streak since 2011 (5 straight). Xavier Reddick (4 TFL) and Kristian Tate (2.5 TFL) have led a dominating defense (10 ppg, 1^st in PL) so far this season. The Hoya offense is averaging 39 ppg but that is a bit deceiving since they put up 69 against Division 3 Catholic. They’ll be tested by a Cornell defense (17 ppg allowed) that returns 8 starters from a last year’s unit. Gunther Johnson will get the start at the quarterback but don’t be surprised if Joseph Brunell  gets a few opportunities to lead the offense.

Amazingly, Cornell has not posted a winning record since they went 6-4 in 2005. If things are going to turn around for Mike Archer’s team they must get better production from the quarterback position. Junior Richie Kenney has really struggled out of the gate (48% completion, 2 TD 5 INT) so there’s a good chance Mike Catanese gets his shot if the offense needs a boost. Running back Harold Coles (134 ypg) has literally and figuratively carried the offense through the first two games of the season. The Big Red were picked to finish 7^th in the Ancient Eight preseason poll.

Georgetown has the defense to contain Coles and force the Big Red to pass the ball. If the Hoyas are able to protect the ball and don’t waste red zone opportunities they should be able to escape the Finger Lakes with a 4-1 record.

Prediction: Georgetown 27 Cornell 23