The FCS Wedge

The old adage “it’s better late than never” holds true in week 11 of the Patriot League football season. The first Saturday of November features a highly anticipated battle between Holy Cross and Lehigh in the Christmas City. With both teams owning undefeated league marks odds are the winner of this game captures at least a share of the title. In addition to the what’s at stake on the field, there’s a juicy subplot starring former Crusader head coach and current Lehigh front man Tom Gilmore. Fifteen minutes down the road from the main event in Bethlehem Lafayette hosts Fordham in a spicy undercard that could go a long way in determining the league race. The “third wheel” game of the week is Colgate at Georgetown. The Hoyas are looking to lock up the programs first winning season since 2011 while Colgate is trying to stave off their first 9 loss campaign in 24 years. Bucknell is on a bye.

Colgate (1-8, 0-3) at Georgetown (5-3, 1-2) 12 P.M. Cooper Field; Washington D.C.

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: Colgate and Georgetown square-off on the banks of the Potomac at high noon Saturday. These are two teams in desperate need of an emotionally uplifting win. The Raiders suffered their 7^th lopsided loss of the season against Holy Cross (31-10) last weekend. Georgetown returns home after a devastating 27-24 setback against Lehigh. The 3 point “L” will ultimately cost the Hoyas their first ever Patriot League Title. When Gunther Johnson connected with Michael Dereus on 4^th and 4 for a game tying 72 yard touchdown with 1:23 with left in regulation it felt like the Hoyas were going to find a way to stay in the race. However, the stout Georgetown defense allowed the Mountain Hawk “O” to go 59 yards in a little over a minute. That march into Hoya territory setup Lehigh’s 27 yard game winning field goal. In each of Georgetown’s three losses this season (Davidson, Fordham, Lehigh) the defense struggled to make key stops in the second half. The good news for Coach Sgarlata’s team is the fact that Colgate’s struggling offense (12.6 ppg) does not present nearly the challenge the three above mentioned squads did.

Colgate ventures to our nation’s capital licking their wounds from the shellacking they took at Holy Cross. The Raider’s once vaunted defense was carved up by a Crusader’s offense (502 yards) that’s struggled to find its footing for much of the year. The biggest issues were the 235 yards on the ground Colgate gave up and a handful of big plays through the air Holy Cross was able to complete. Offensively (280 ypg), there has been little to no improvement since Breneman returned the line-up a few weeks ago. Turnovers (2 INT against HC) continue to plague the junior quarterback. The Raiders have three games left to build some momentum for 2020.

Georgetown has been the much better team in 2019. If they’re able to put last week’s loss behind them Colgate shouldn’t offer much resistant on Saturday. The Raider’s best chance to emerge victorious is to win the turnover battle and sustain lengthy drives on offense that end in points.

Prediction: Georgetown 30 Colgate 20

Fordham (3-5, 1-1) at Lafayette (1-7, 1-1) 12:30 P.M. Fisher Field; Easton, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: Fordham makes the 90 minute trip down I-78 to clash with Lafayette in what amounts to a league title elimination game. Lafayette is in the hunt despite having won just one game (last week against Bucknell) in 2019. With games against Holy Cross and Lehigh remaining the Leopards amazingly control their destiny in the Patriot League Title chase. The question is can a team that is one week removed from a 10 game losing streak pull it off? Getting quarterback Keegan Shoemaker to replicate his Patriot League Offensive POW performance against Bucknell (23-27 207 yards passing 1 TD, 42 yards rushing 1 TD) would be a great starting point. In addition to Shoemaker’s performance, the often sleepy ground attack came to life (162 yards) in the win over the Bison. On the other side of the ball, the Leopard’s “D” held a second straight opponent to under 300 total yards. The defense will have a tough time making it two in row against a skilled Ram’s attack.

Thanks to a late October bye, Fordham had an extra week to digest and recover from their OT loss to Lehigh . Despite that setback, the Rams are one Lehigh loss away from being right back in the title chase. In order to finish the season strong, quarterback Tim DeMorat (201 ypg 13 TD 8 INT) must raise his level of play. The talented sophomore has been in a bit of a slump the last month which has limited the offense’s potential. The defense (448 ypg allowed, 5^th in PL) also needs to make strides the final month of the season. Sub-par “D” has plagued the Rams for a handful of years. The front seven needs to get pressure on Keegan Shoemaker in order to make him uncomfortable. Fordham’s linebackers are more than capable of limiting Shoemakers running opportunities and forcing the freshman into mistakes with his arm.

Lafayette’s competitive spirit was finally rewarded last week in a win over the Bison. Despite owning just that lone win the Leopards have the pieces to make a run at the Rams. With that said, the Rams had an extra week to prepare for this one so they remain a slight favorite.

Prediction: Fordham 30 Lafayette 24

Holy Cross (4-4, 2-0) at Lehigh (4-3, 3-0) 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium; Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: The first big game of the 2019 Patriot League football season takes place in Eastern Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon when Holy Cross and Lehigh battle for first place. The Crusaders are looking for their first league title and trip to the FCS Playoffs since 2009. The head coach of Holy Cross at that time? Current Lehigh leader Tom Gilmore! Gilmore’s Mount Hawks are trying to capture their third league title in the last four seasons and the programs 11^th overall. Lehigh is in this position because of their ability to win close games. All three of Lehigh’s league “W’s” (Colgate, Fordham and Georgetown) have been secured on the game’s final play. The reason for all these cardiac finishes? The offense continues to be a bit too erratic (322 ypg) and the defense has the propensity to give up the big play. Lehigh’s ability to generate points in the 4th quarter in close games and their defense’s overall improvement (373 ypg allowed, 2^nd in PL) are the biggest reasons Lehigh has a winning record heading into November.

Holy Cross played their best, most complete game of the season last week against Colgate (won 31-10). The Crusaders offense generated 502 total yards thanks in large part to the Degenhardt to Asante (144 yards 2 TD) connection through the air and Dominic Cozier’s 153 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Coach Chesney’s defense harassed Colgate quarterback Grant Breneman (2 INT) all afternoon and basically shutdown the Raider ground attack (96 yards). The underrated Crusader front seven has the potential to give Lehigh’s offensive line trouble. If Holy Cross is able to pressure Lehigh quarterback Tim Monaco the league’s top ranked passing attack (245 ypg) will be slowed significantly.

Prior to Holy Cross destroying Lehigh 56-0 last season the Mountain Hawks won 7 out of the previous 8 meetings. Lehigh has already avenged three of their four 2018 league losses this season. Getting the fourth against a dangerous Holy Cross team will be the toughest hurdle yet. Home field and a senior class with championship pedigree will get Lehigh over that lofty bar.

Prediction: Lehigh 34 Holy Cross 27

 

This week features nothing but Patriot League games for the first time all season. The marquee match-up on the docket this Saturday is Georgetown at Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks are the league’s only 2-0 team after their OT win over Fordham. The Hoyas only conference setback is an overtime loss to the Rams a couple of weeks ago. In other action, defending champion Colgate makes the 4 hour trip on 1-90 to take on Holy Cross. The Raiders are currently riding a 7 game winning streak over the Crusaders. The third game this weekend, Bucknell at Lafayette, could end up deciding who avoids last place in the final league standings. Fordham is on a much needed bye after their crushing loss to Lehigh last week.

Colgate (1-7, 0-2) at Holy Cross (3-4, 1-0) 1 P.M. Fitton Field; Worcester, MA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: Defending Patriot League Champion Colgate will try to make it two wins in a row when they venture to Mount Saint James to battle Holy Cross. The Raiders conquered long-time rival Cornell last week 21-20 for their first win of the season.  Gate’s ground attack (174 yards) gained traction for the first time this season in the win over the Big Red. Colgate will need another strong performance from the running back duo of Alex Mathews and Malik Twyman if they’re going to defeat Holy Cross this weekend. Quarterback Grant Breneman’s willingness to run against Cornell (14 attempts) really helped to open up the running lanes. If Breneman can be effective running and passing against the Crusader’s “D”, Colgate has a real chance to pull the upset on the road. The Raider defense has the personnel to keep Holy Cross’s so-so “O” (17 ppg) well in check.

Holy Cross will try to bounce back from last week’s 31-21 loss to their biggest Ivy League rival, Harvard. The Crusaders fell behind 24-7 at half and despite a solid performance during the final 30 minutes, could never get close enough to seriously threaten. After two straight strong performances, Connor Degenhardt (16-38 206 yards 1 TD 1 INT) struggled against a solid Crimson defense. Outside of Domenic Cozier’s 66 yard touchdown run on the third play from scrimmage, the ground game (82 yards) never got much traction either. Both should find more room to operate against a Colgate defense (394 ypg allowed) that continues to struggle. The Crusader defense has the discipline to contain Colgate’s read-option offense. Breneman will need to be at his best if the Raider offense is going to finally break out.

Holy Cross is the better team and they’re at home. Colgate scored a nice win last week but the reality is they really didn’t play well against a bottom tier Cornell team. Holy Cross will win as long as Degenhardt protects the ball and the defense doesn’t allow Colgate to put together lengthy scoring drives.

Prediction: Holy Cross 27 Colgate 17

Georgetown (5-2, 1-1) at Lehigh (3-3, 2-0) 12:30 P.M. Goodman Stadium; Bethlehem, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: Lehigh will try to be the first team in league play to reach 3-0 when they host Georgetown Saturday afternoon. The Mountain Hawks will also be trying to exact revenge on the Hoyas for last year’s 22-16 overtime loss in D.C. The loss ended Lehigh’s 17 game winning streak over Georgetown. The Mountain Hawks will need to regroup emotionally for another big game after last week’s thrilling 30-27 OT win over Fordham. They’ll also likely have to adapt on offense as starting quarterback Tyler Monaco (203 ypg 5 TD 5 INT) is expected to miss the game with a leg injury. If Monaco can’t go junior Addison Shoup will take the reins. The Georgia native has performed well in crucial situations when called upon this season. The Lehigh defense can certainly make Shoup’s life a little easier by bouncing back from last week’s shaky performance against Fordham (330 rushing yards allowed).

Georgetown pushed their record to 5-2 with an ugly 14-10 win over winless Lafayette last week. The Hoyas managed just 264 yards of offense against a Leopard “D” that entered the game giving up well over 400 per game. Gunther Johnson (128 ypg 7 TD 1 INT) and company will need to generate at least a little more “O” this week if the Hoyas are going to secure a winning record before October comes to an end.  Given the Hoyas offensive limitations Coach Sgarlata will lean heavily on his excellent defense (12 ppg allowed). LB Xavier Reddick (22 solo tackles, 5 TFL), DT Khristian Tate (3 sacks) and the rest of the Hoya “D” have the talent to make things really tough on a Lehigh offense that will likely be without their starting QB.

This has all the makings of a low scoring slugfest. Whoever can generate points inside the red zone and limit their mistakes will come out on top. Lehigh has a few more playmakers on offense and a sound kicking game which will prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Lehigh 16 Georgetown 13

Bucknell (1-6, 1-1) at Lafayette (0-7 0-1) 3:30 P.M. Fisher Stadium; Easton, PA

Live Streaming: Patriot League Network

The Need to Know: Who finishes in the Patriot League cellar could very well be determined when Bucknell and Lafayette battle it out on College Hill Saturday evening. The Leopard’s losing streak has now reached double-digits (10) following last week’s tough 14-10 setback to Georgetown. Lafayette outplayed the Hoyas in many regards but failed to execute on both sides of the ball in a few crucial situations that likely would have changed the outcome. Sadly for Coach Garrett’s team that has been an all too familiar theme this season. The offense has really lost its way the last two weeks after showing some real promise earlier in the year. Keegan Shoemaker (227 ypg 8 TD 9 INT) must find his September magic before it’s too late. Conversely, Lafayette’s defense (30 ppg) has played well since the calendar turned to October. If they maintain their current level of play the Bison will have a tough time scoring.

Bucknell heads to Eastern Pennsylvania on the heels of a really disappointing effort against nationally ranked Towson. The Tigers were clearly the better team going in but that doesn’t excuse Bucknell’s no-show type performance in the 56-7 loss. The Bucknell defense surrendered 560 total yards including 328 on the ground! Thankfully for Dave Cecchini’s team, Lafayette does not possess anywhere near the firepower on offense that Towson has. It will be up to Logan Bitikofer (143 ypg 5 TD 3 INT) and the rest of the Bison “O” (15 ppg) to grind out enough points to win. The lack of a consistent rushing attack (72 ypg) continues to be a major issue for the Bucknell offense. Chad Freshnock’s (35 ypg) and Jared Cooper’s (31 ypg) talent far outweighs their current production.

This would appear to be Lafayette’s last best chance to avoid a winless 2019 campaign. Likewise, this very well could be the Bison’s last chance this season to emerge victorious. This game feels like a coin-flip on paper. With that in mind, Lafayette feels like the more desperate team and they’re at home.

Prediction: Lafayette 24 Bucknell 20