Hey everyone, sorry this preview is coming out so late in the week. I’ve been a Cubs fan for ~32 years (I’m 38) so I was (understandably) a bit distracted this week. Hopefully those of you who do read it before the games can get some good info out of it, and if it’s after the games, well you’re welcome to run through it to see if I was anywhere close on my predictions.
Down to 3 weeks left in the regular season and here’s where things stand in the MVFC (conference record, then overall record):
#3 North Dakota State: 4-1, 7-1
#14 Youngstown State: 4-1, 6-2
#12 South Dakota State: 4-1, 5-3
#16 Western Illinois: 3-2, 6-2
#26 South Dakota: 3-2, 4-4
Missouri State: 2-3, 4-4
#33 Northern Iowa: 2-3, 3-5
Illinois State: 2-4, 4-5
Indiana State: 2-4, 4-5
Southern Illinois: 0-5, 2-6
And the schedule for this weekend is as follows (all time listed in Central):
- #33 Northern Iowa at Indiana State @ 12 PM
- Illinois State at #16 Western Illinois @ 1 PM
- #26 South Dakota at Southern Illinois @ 2 PM
- Missouri State at #12 South Dakota State @ 2 PM
- #14 Youngstown State at #3 North Dakota State @ 2:30 PM
If we consider 7 wins to be the “threshold” for playoff consideration then here’s what the teams need to do to have a shot at the playoffs (outside of the conference autobid):
- NDSU – already reached 7 wins
- YSU – need to win 1 out of 3
- SDSU – need to win 2 out of 3
- WIU – need to win 1 out of 3
- USD – need to win all 3
- MSU – winning out will only reach 6 DI wins (it’d be 7 total wins, but one was a NAIA school)
- UNI – winning out will only reach 6 wins
- ISUr – winning out will only reach 6 wins
- ISUb – winning out will only reach 6 wins
- SIU – winning out will only reach 5 wins
I’m also going to be switching up the format of my articles a bit. I kinda feel like they were getting a bit “numbers-heavy”, so I’ll try to lean away from that a bit and more towards just general thoughts and analysis. If you notice the change and like it/hate it/don’t care, feel free to let me know over on AGS (ST_Lawson) or on Twitter (also ST_Lawson).
On to the games…
#33 Northern Iowa at Indiana State
At this point, it looks like neither of these teams will be making the playoffs since the best that either can do is to reach 6 wins if they win out. UNI is 3-5 overall after their narrow loss to NDSU last weekend, 24-20, in a game where a talented but young (starting his second game) UNI QB Eli Dunne had trouble connecting with receivers and threw 4 interceptions. ISU also lost a close one last week to a team competing for the conference championship, losing 13-10 at Youngstown State. The ISU defense held the YSU offense (if you could call them that) to no offensive TDs (only a special teams TD and 2 FGs), but was unable to move the ball against the YSU defense. ISU comes into this game at 4-5 overall.
The Panthers, like the Penguins, have a pretty strong defense. Not quite as good against the run, but very comparable against the pass (they’re the only two teams in the conference allowing fewer than 200 yards per game through the air). This is bad news for the Sycamores, since they rely so much on their 15th ranked (in the FCS) passing attack, which accounts for ~70% of their total offensive yardage. And that isn’t to say that UNI isn’t decent at stopping the run as well, because a large part of their success has been the ability of their star D-lineman Karter Schult to get pressure on opposing QBs. Schult currently leads the entire FCS in sacks and is 6th in tackles for loss, and when you’ve got a guy like that on the front lines, he can also do quite a bit to stop a RB that’s unlucky enough to find themselves in his vicinity.
ISU’s defense, however, has been fairly mediocre, giving up 31 points per game this season and ranking in the bottom half of the conference for most defensive measures. UNI’s offense spent much of the season running the ball, which their coaching staff eventually realized was not very effective and put in the previously-mentioned QB Eli Dunne to try to turn a QB-run-heavy offense into more of a QB-pocket-passing offense. They figured out something was working with the new offense when they destroyed Missouri State two weeks ago, and then last week, if it weren’t for the 4 interceptions, they very likely would have won the game against NDSU. Some of that is on the NDSU defense, but a lot of it is probably due to the lack of time spent practicing the offense as it runs under Dunne as opposed to the previous QB, Bailey. Dunne and his receivers had trouble connecting. On the defensive side of the ball, ISU is no NDSU. NDSU hasn’t been great against the pass this year, but ISU is a bit worse, and they have nothing even coming close to the level of their ability to stop the run or put pressure on the QB.
I think that this matchup favors the Panthers pretty solidly. With another week of practice to get the new system in their heads and going against a defense that will probably not put a ton of pressure on the QB, UNI should be able to put up some decent yardage and points. Not quite on the level of their MSU game, but more than the NDSU game. ISU will have trouble, likely on the level of what they did against Youngstown State (10 points) or slightly more. So, personally, I think something in the neighborhood of a 32-17 win for the Panthers is likely.
TL:DR – Northern Iowa by 15
Illinois State at #16 Western Illinois
Western Illinois kept their playoff hopes alive last weekend with an exciting come from behind victory at South Dakota. The Leathernecks are currently 6-2 overall and are in good position to win at least one or two of their last three to garner an at-large spot in the FCS playoffs. Illinois State’s season started off great but then went into freefall, losing 4 straight games, before starting to turn things around with a win…it was over the worst team in the conference…but it was still a win. Last weekend, however, the ISU defense really stepped up and showed that they could still play like the team that held Northwestern to 7 points early in the season, nabbing 3 interceptions (including one GIANT pick-6) against one of the best offensive teams in the conference, SDSU.
Amazingly (or maybe surprisingly), the defense of the 16th ranked Leathernecks is pretty bad. They’re in the lower half of the conference for allowing yards on the ground, but dead-last in the conference in allowing yardage through the air, giving up an average of just under 300 passing yards per game. That being said, when it comes down to “crunch time”…near the end of the game or during a very important drive, for example, the Leatherneck defense has frequently been able to come up with critical stops, which is why, despite giving up the most yardage of any team in the conference, they are right in the middle of the conference in points allowed. Illinois State hasn’t had a great offense. They weren’t bad earlier in the season, but after losing RB George Moreira a few weeks ago, the offense has gotten somewhat one-dimensional (although getting better with a couple of other players stepping up to fill that vacancy). They’re a little better at their passing game, which could be a bit of an advantage, since the Leathernecks have been prone to giving up big passing plays.
Illinois State’s defense has played very up and down this season. As I mentioned before, they held Northwestern (of the Big 10) to only 7 points, and then last weekend, picked off one of the better QBs in the conference 3 times helping them take down the team that was the frontrunner for the conference championship, SDSU. But then in other games, they’ve performed like more like the lower half of the conference-ranked defense that they are. Western’s offense has been pretty good this season, boasting the conference’s top rusher in RB Steve McShane and the second-best receiver in the MVFC in WR Lance Lenoir, and is very balanced, being in the upper-middle of the conference rankings in both ground yardage and passing yardage.
I think that it’s really going to depend on how the ISU defense holds up. If they play like they did last weekend, it could be a close one. If they can’t come up with a couple of interceptions and quite a few pass breakups, then they could have a rough time. I’m hoping for the latter, personally, and think we’ll see the Leathernecks win by about at TD. Another note on this game, it’s the longest-played rivalry for WIU and (I believe) the #2 longest for Illinois State, with this being the 99th meeting overall between the two teams going back to 1904.
TL:DR – Western Illinois by 7
#26 South Dakota at Southern Illinois
South Dakota saw their playoff hopes all but disappear last weekend when they squandered a 17-point halftime lead in their 1-point loss to Western Illinois. They’re sitting at 4-4 overall with 3 games remaining, so they could theoretically still make the playoffs, however their last two games are against probably the two best teams in the conference. SIU on the other hand, saw their playoff hopes evaporate weeks ago and are now 2-6, so they’re essentially spending the last part of the season playing for “bragging rights”, getting experience for their younger players, and trying to “play spoiler” for a few teams that do still have a shot at the postseason with games against Youngstown State and Western Illinois looming in the final couple of weeks.
The USD offense, led by QB Chris Streveler, is pretty decent, and is now fairly balanced especially with WR Brandt Van Roekel coming back after being out for 4 games due to injury to catch for 137 yards against the Leathernecks last week. Streveler also put up a stellar performance accounting for a combined 480 yards and 3 TDs in the loss and can be a big running threat for a QB. Trying to stop the USD offense will be the Saluki defense, which, to be honest, has not been great this year (not that I have a lot of room to talk, as a Leatherneck fan). SIU’s pass defense is nearly as bad as Western’s (who, as I mentioned earlier, is last in the conference), and their rushing defense is about the same…not the worst, but not great either…lower-middle of the conference. So, I think we can probably expect that the USD offense will probably do about as well against the SIU defense as they did against WIU (34 points and 527 total yards).
The SIU offense is heavily based on their passing attack…I’d actually say that they challenge SDSU for the best passing game in the conference…they have the best completion percentage, the fewest passes that have been intercepted, and the second best total passing yardage in the MVFC. However, unlike SDSU, the don’t have too much else, “boasting” the second worst running game in the Valley. I think it’s actually rather impressive that their passing game is so good because a lot of teams use the run to set up the pass, but SIU has been able to get that done without a good running game. As mentioned before though, having really only a passing game doesn’t quite get it done in the MVFC, with the Salukis sitting at the bottom of the conference standings. The Coyote defense isn’t really much better than SIU’s though. Their pass defense is quite a bit better than Southern’s, but their rushing defense is last in the conference.
One other thing to keep in mind is that USD also has the best overall kicking game in the conference, if not the FCS, with P/K Miles Bergner currently averaging 46.2 yards per punt which puts him at #2 in the FCS and #1 in the conference. Bergner is also one of the best FG kickers. He missed a 56-yarder under a lot of pressure last weekend, but that was only his second miss of the game and considering all four of USD’s wins were by 3 points and he hit at FG in 3 of them. The play of Bergner has made a huge difference in picking up a win vs a loss for the Coyotes.
Overall, I think that SIU will have trouble moving the ball against USD. With the fairly one-dimensional offense being focused on USD’s defensive strength, I think they’ll handle that pretty well. SIU’s defense however, will likely struggle stopping USD’s offense. I think you can probably expect the Coyotes to put up something around 35-40 points, while holding the Saluki offense to something closer to 20-25.
TL:DR – South Dakota by 13
Missouri State at #12 South Dakota State
Last year, Missouri State had a pretty rough season going winless in DI play. This year, the Bears have taken a pretty big step forward, winning 4 games so far, 3 of them against DI teams, and even the games they haven’t won, they’ve often played tougher than they had been in the last year or two (except for the UNI game). They’re sitting at 4-4 overall after a come-from-behind win over SIU last weekend. South Dakota State had been rolling along pretty well, taking down fellow “top dogs” NDSU (at the Fargodome) and then YSU in back-to-back weeks, before suffering a late-season let-down, falling 38-21 to Illinois State in a game where SDSU QB Taryn Christion uncharacteristically threw 3 interceptions.
Led by the previously mentioned QB Christion, the SDSU offense is one of the most potent passing offenses in the entire FCS with Dallas Goedert, a big TE who runs like a tank and will probably be getting some playing time on Sundays in the near future, and Jake Wieneke, a WR who is projected to break the conference yardage record before the end of this year (could be this game, he’s less than 100 yards away from it)…and he’s still a Junior. It’s not a hyperbole to say that he’s the best WR that the MVFC has seen in a long long time, if not ever. On the rushing front, they’re not great, but they’re effective enough to keep the defenses “honest” and allow the receivers to find coverage gaps. Going against the SDSU offense will be the MSU defense, who is pretty decent against the run, but like WIU and SIU, is really bad against the pass (this is really bad news if you have to play SDSU…see WIU @ SDSU earlier in the season for example…they hung 52 points on us and had 2 100+ yard receivers.
MSU’s offense is run by the guy who was supposed to be the backup QB until the starter was suspended for the season for allegedly punching a dog….yeah….seriously. It’s hard to say if the former starting QB would have fared any better this season, but currently MSU’s offense puts up the fewest yards per game of any team in the conference and they’re pretty well balanced…equally ineffective in both the run game and the passing game. They do have a couple of playmakers at WR, but the QB has had trouble getting the ball to them. Attempting to stop them will be the SDSU defense, who hasn’t been stellar, but has mostly been effective enough. They’re much better against the pass than they are against the run though, with two LBs (one a Redshirt Freshman), Jesse Bobbit and Christian Rozeboom who are currently #3 and #4 in the conference in tackles, so that also bodes well for SDSU in this game. SDSU doesn’t get a ton of pressure across the line of scrimmage, but they’ve been pretty effective at stopping anything that does come across that line.
Personally, I think that the SDSU offense will come back with a bit of an “edge” after losing to Illinois State and will put up some huge numbers against MSU. If I’m looking at previous opponents, the SDSU defense has effectively shut down much better offenses than MSU has (WIU and NDSU, for example) and I don’t think MSU will have a lot of success moving the ball against SDSU’s talented LBs. It’s hard to predict exactly what the score might be when I think it might be something of a “blowout”, but I think SDSU could easily put up something in the upper-40’s or maybe low-50’s, and MSU probably won’t get to 20 points.
TL:DR – South Dakota State by 30
#14 Youngstown State at #3 North Dakota State
This is the “big game” in the conference this week…the only one matching up two ranked MVFC teams, two teams that are both likely to be playing after Thanksgiving, and with both teams sitting at 4-1 in the conference, will go a long way towards determining who will be the conference champion. Youngstown State comes into this game after a close home win over Indiana State where the Penguin offense (QB, WRs, RBs) didn’t score any points. The 13-10 victory was tallied via two field goals and one punt returned for a TD by the special teams kick return unit. Their defense was able to step up though and held the typically-productive Sycamores to only 10 points. The Bison are coming off a close victory of their own, after picking off UNI QB Eli Dunne 4 times to lock down a 24-20 win at the UNIDome.
The Penguin offense is dependent upon the run. They’re dead last in the conference at passing the ball but the best team in the conference at running the ball. Unfortunately that doesn’t appear to generally equate to many points, with them also ranking dead last in scoring. They also have had some question marks in terms of the QB position, but are currently starting a QB who was a former starter but was sitting out the season with the intent to likely transfer for next season, Hunter Wells. In his first game back, Wells wasn’t asked to do much in terms of passing, handing off the ball mostly to RB Martin Ruiz, a talented back, but somewhat hindered by the one-dimensional-ness of their offense. The team that they’ll be attempting to run the ball against is only the #1 team in the MVFC at stopping the run…the Bison defense. NDSU has a saying that “the strength of the Bison is the Herd” and that really applies to the NDSU defense. With star LB Nick DeLuca out for the season with a shoulder injury, there isn’t really one “big” star, but a bunch of players who all contribute very solidly across the board, and it’s very effective. If they have a weakness however, it’s that they have shown themselves to be somewhat vulnerable to the passing game, sitting right around the middle of the conference in that measure.
So, back to Youngstown State…how does a team that is ranked dead last in passing and more importantly, in scoring points, end up 4-1 in the conference? Defense…Defense…Defense. Second only to NDSU in their run defense and #1 in the conference in the pass defense, and when combined results in a team that is the 3rd best in the entire FCS at preventing other teams from scoring. So, they don’t put up many points, but they usually give up even fewer. This starts with their fearsome front line, bookended by probably the best DE duo in the FCS with Avery Moss and Derek Rivers. These two are the 5th and 6th best in the entire FCS in sacks, and are very good at making sure the ball does not get past (or at least, not very far past) the line of scrimmage if it’s in someone’s hands. Attempting to cross that line will be the NDSU offense led by QB Easton Stick. Like the Penguins, the Bison have a strong running attack but not a great passing game. It’s obviously been effective enough, but with Stick being a running threat, and two great RBs in King Frazier and Lance Dunn, they haven’t had to rely on it too often.
I think that this is going to be a very interesting game to watch. Two old-school, smash-mouth, strong defense, big running game teams just slamming into each other over and over again. I think that NDSU has a little bit of an edge though, for a few reasons.
- This game is in the Fargodome…a difficult place to play a game. They have lost a few there…in the last 5 years plus this year so far, NDSU has lost 6 games, with 5 of them being to conference members and 4 of them being at home. But still, that makes them 45-4 at home over that timeframe.
- NDSU doesn’t have a great passing game, but they do have one, with a couple of guys averaging just under 50 yards a game receiving. Youngstown State by comparison, has nobody that averages over 30 yards per game receiving. That’s practically no passing game to speak of.
- When it comes to playing this time of “grind out a win” football…NDSU has been doing this better and for quite a bit longer than YSU has been doing it. They know how to win the close games.
So, I think that it’ll be a big defensive battle, very low scoring, but the difference will be that Stick will connect with one TD pass at some point. Everything else is holding to punts, with occasional FGs. Might end up being a little more, but I could seriously see 10 points winning this game. Probably something in the range of a 10-6 NDSU victory.
TL:DR – North Dakota State by 4