(1-2) Charleston Southern OPEN
There are not many teams in America who could use an open date more than Charleston Southern needs one right now. A season that seemed to start off with such promise just three weeks ago has quickly spiraled downward. Injuries, suspensions and – based on social media postings from the players and fans – a growing rift between the program and the CSU administration have all combined to turn the month of September into less of a campaign mode and more of a simple quest for survival.
What Charleston Southern needs to do in the bye week: Heal up some injuries and catch their collective breath. Thanks to NCAA issues, CSU may still be without some players the following week when they travel to Monmouth for a crucial Big South contest so getting everyone re-focused this week should be of highest priority.
Best case scenario for Charleston Southern – Silence. No news is good news for CSU right now.
Worst case scenario – The opposite of that.
***********************************************************************************************
(1-1) Kennesaw State OPEN
KSU gets the weekend off before a big road test at Duquesne on September 24th. Time to heal up starting QB Trey White and anyone else who’s injured.
What Kennesaw needs to do in the bye week – Rest. Go to class. Study film. Stay away from the off-week parties.
Best case scenario for Kennesaw – Trey White comes out healthy from the week off. Backup QB Chandler Burks did a perfectly good job against a bad NAIA program in Point but it’s possible that KSU could have had similar success in that game with a roasted hot dog playing the position. Maybe the wiener would have bobbled a few snaps, sure, but its poise in the pocket would have been incredible.
Worst case scenario – Barring circumstances a little more Charleston Southern-esque, there isn’t a worst case scenario for KSU in the off week.
***********************************************************************************************
(2-0) Monmouth @ (1-1) Kent State – Saturday, Sept 17th, 3:30pm (ESPN3)
The Monmouth Hawks take to the air this week to visit Kent State (I assume they’re taking to the air this week anyway; I can’t imagine they’re taking a 7-hour bus ride across the Great American Pothole Exposition, aka the Pennsylvania Turnpike). After last year’s 31-10 loss at Central Michigan, this will be only Monmouth’s second ever meeting with an FBS opponent.
Kent State is 0-2 and reeling right now. The Golden Flashes were picked to finish last in their division of the MAC to start the preseason. After a 20-point loss at Penn State in which the offense never got in the end zone, Kent returned home and endured a game that featured a two-hour weather delay and four overtimes before the game after 1AM Sunday morning with a loss to FCS opponent, North Carolina A&T. To top it off, the play that won the game for NCAT was only possible due to a completely phantom pass interference call on Kent – yes, I’m one of those people watching ESPN3 at 1:00 in the morning – made by the MAC officiating crew (yeah, those guys had a bad weekend). That loss brings Kent’s record under 4th-year head coach Paul Haynes to 9-28. Kent’s schedule also does them no favors as their next opponent after Monmouth is a trip to Tuscaloosa and the University of Alabama.
Monmouth, on the other hand, is 2-0 after taking care of Lehigh and smacking Delaware State around for three quarters which was, apparently, enough. Monmouth is dealing with an injury situation in their backfield as both starting running backs, Lavon Chaney and Zach Welch, went down with injuries in the Delaware State game and did not return. MU head coach Kevin Callahan insists that both will be fully cleared to play at Kent State and that statement could be completely true or just be gamesmanship on his part. This opponent is a significant step up in competition from Lehigh and Delaware State but, simply by virtue of the fact that they just lost to an FCS team, Kent is a winnable game for Monmouth.
What Monmouth has to do against Kent State – Offensively, MU needs to get the ball downfield. This has not been their MO in the first two games, preferring a ground assault with Chaney and Welch and a short passing game from QB Cody Williams. However, FBS depth aside, Kent appears to be weakest defensively in the secondary. On defense, the Hawks have to play fast. In their first two games, Kent hasn’t demonstrated the ability to do anything particularly well on offense. Against NCAT, Kent put together 275 yards worth of offense which is not horrible until you realize that the game went four full overtimes.
Best case scenario for Monmouth against Kent State – Monmouth plays hard and fast in all phases. Kent looked absolutely demoralized by the second OT against NCAT and will need a serious re-boot to find some success this year. Monmouth has the chance to kick them while they’re down.
Worst case scenario for Monmouth – Chaney and/or Welch come back too soon and get re-injured. Those two backs are must-have items for Monmouth this year.
***********************************************************************************************
(0-2) Presbyterian @ (2-0) Campbell – Saturday, Sept 17th, 6:00pm (Big South Network)
Presbyterian College takes to the road for the third team in three weeks as they visit “the Creek” and Campbell University out of the Pioneer League. This will be only the second time the two teams have faced each other with PC taking the first game in the series last year, 23-13.
Comparing the results of the season to this point for each team is a study in opposites. Campbell comes into the game 2-0 and in dominating fashion. They’re averaging over 500 yards of offense and have outscored their first two opponents 106-21. Now, granted, those first two opponents have been a couple of unfortunate D2 programs in Bluefield and Chowan. Meanwhile, Presbyterian comes into the game 0-2, having been outscored 83-3 by Mike Gundy’s worst nightmare, FBS Central Michigan and SoCon power Chattanooga. Campbell is a non-scholarship program on a roll and has the home field advantage. Presby is a full-scholarship program but on the tail end of a three-game road swing to start the season. Campbell has 13 transfer students from either FBS programs or FCS scholarship schools on the roster. Presby has two. Campbell has scored 13 touchdowns on the year spread over five players. Presbyterian has scored 0 touchdowns on the year as an entire team.
Something’s got to give here.
A year ago, Presbyterian found itself in just about this same position; 0-2 against FBS Miami (OH) and FBS Charlotte to start the year before facing Campbell in Week 3. That win over Campbell turned out to be one of only two wins on the year for PC as they subsequently went on a 7-game losing streak. The Blue Hose relied heavily on the legs of RB Darrell Bridges, their only real offensive weapon, to get that win and it looks like that’s what they’ll have to do again. On the other side of it, Campbell has never beaten an FCS scholarship program since they re-instated football in 2008 and, barring playoffs, this will be their only opportunity in 2016. This is a big opportunity for the Camels.
What Presbyterian has to do against Chattanooga: PC has to demonstrate which team is the scholarship program. (Warning: bad metaphor approaching!) In recent years, the Blue Hose defense has been like a toddler on a sugar rush; everywhere at once, bouncing off the walls, brimming with energy and roaring at the top of its lungs while the PC offense has been that same toddler’s teddy bear, quiet, non-aggressive, sitting over in the corner and just waiting for a good cuddle. So far this season, however, it seems that the sugar has finally worn off, the toddler has crashed and is now asleep in the middle of the floor, by which I mean that the PC defense has been fairly absent since the second quarter against Central Michigan. Te offense, well, the offense is still that teddy bear waiting for the toddler to pick it up. 5dimes currently has PC as a 5-point favorite at non-schollie Campbell but that would be a silly bet in my opinion. I think PC needs to score 28 points here to win, something they haven’t done since 2014.
Best case scenario for PC – The PC defense gathers its pride and strongly re-asserts itself. The offense takes advantage in the drop-off in competition and asserts…something.
Worst case scenario – Losing to a non-scholarship program is a very real possibility here. If that happens, then a loss to D2 Florida Tech – who, theoretically, has more scholarship players than Campbell does – the following week is not unlikely either. I don’t know how you come back from that to save your season.
************************************************************************************
(2-0) The Citadel @ (1-1) Gardner-Webb – Saturday, Sept 17th, 6:00pm (Big South Network)
The Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs finally get off the road and begin the home portion of their schedule hosting The Citadel. Surprisingly, the two schools that have both been playing football for the last 70 years and are less than 250 miles apart have only met once before on the field. In 2014, the Bulldogs of The Citadel beat the Bulldogs of Gardner-Webb 37-14 in Charleston.
The Citadel comes into this week at 2-0 with a pair of gut-check 4th-quarter comeback wins on the road at Mercer and at home to arch-rival Furman. The Citadel played the first game of the season without their starting quarterback who had been suspended for I-really-don’t-care-what. Mercer and Furman are, obviously, both SoCon member so, oddly, this will be The Citadel’s first non-conference game of 2016. They already seem to be rounding into mid-season form.
Gardner-Webb comes into this game after matching up well at Western Carolina for one half and then completely disintegrating in the second. This will be Gardner-Webb’s only home game in the month of September as they travel to FBS Ohio the following week.
Statistically, the two programs are a match offensively which is unusual considering their style. The Citadel’s triple option has ground out more than 400 yards rushing on the year with less than 200 yards through the air. Meanwhile, Gardner-Webb plays more of a spread-based attack but has rushed for nearly 600 yards but has passed for only 9 more yards than The Citadel thus far on the season (195-186). Gardner-Webb had some measure of defensive success against the triple-option in 2015 against Kennesaw State. They kept KSU out of the end zone completely though they gave up four field goals and lost the game, 12-7.
What Gardner-Webb has to do against The Citadel: Make the halftime adjustment. Against Western Carolina, the GWU defense never really stopped WCU’s offense in the first half but they did slow it down by getting timely turnovers. G-W was also moving the ball at will in the first half but Western made adjustments at the half and the Bulldogs’ offensive charge turned into a slow crawl. The result was a record night for the opponent.
Best case scenario for Gardner-Webb – The Runnin’ Bulldogs enter the 4th quarter with a two-score lead. The (other) Bulldogs have proven the last two weeks that they can come from behind if they only have to score once to win. But, in an offense that prioritizes possession over explosiveness, that second score could be difficult.
Worst case scenario for Gardner-Webb – The (other) Bulldogs enter the 4th quarter with a two-score lead. At that point, The Citadel’s ability to simply hold the ball becomes Gardner-Webb’s nemesis.
******************************************************************************************
(1-1) Liberty @ (1-1) SMU – Saturday, Sept 17th 7:00pm EST (ESPN3, LFSN)
This will be Liberty’s first ever trip to Southern Methodist and first ever game against a member of the American Athletic Conference (the Flames have played UConn, UCF, and USF when they were under different conference banners). This will also be the first game that Liberty has played in the state of Texas since a 17-14 win at Southwest Texas State in 1993. The contest has special significance to a number of LU players and coaches as head coach Turner Gill, several assistant coaches and a full 10% of the Flames roster are native Texans.
SMU comes into the game at 1-1. They got off to a good start by handily defeating Portland State’s 2015 Personal Punching Bag, the University of North Texas by the score of 34-21. Then they went out and hung with Big XII opponent Baylor for a half before falling, 40-13. Unfortunately, it was revealed this week that SMU’s starting quarterback tore his ACL against UNT and will miss the remainder of the 2016 season. SMU is in head coach Chad Morris’ second year of trying to reclaim what was referred to under his predecessor as the “worst college football program in America”. Morris has recruited some outstanding young talent to SMU but, having lost to FCS James Madison in 2015, it’s hard to imagine that the Mustangs are overlooking the Flames in this game.
Liberty comes in also at 1-1 with a loss to FBS Virginia Tech and a dominating win over Jacksonville of the Pioneer League.
Defensively, LU is playing really fast right now but it will be interesting to see what Liberty’s plan is on offense for this game. SMU advertises itself as an “up-tempo” team, as were Georgia State, Appalachian State and Old Dominion when the Flames played them. In those games, Liberty appeared to make a conscious effort to slow the game down on offense, run the ball between the tackles and keep the other teams’ explosive offense on the sidelines. That plan worked. Liberty beat GSU and ASU and held a 10-point lead over ODU in the final minutes by pounding the ball inside and dominating time of possession. Now, however, the Flames have moved to an up-tempo offense themselves. If the last two weeks are any indication, Liberty still plans to run the ball but the question will be how much time rolls off the clock between carries.
What Liberty has to do against SMU –Continue to take the ball away on defense. The LU D has picked up 8 turnovers in the first two games and continuing that trend will be paramount this week against a very talented but also very young SMU squad.
Best case scenario for Liberty against Virginia Tech – The Liberty offense sustains drives. You can go up-tempo and still control the clock if you’re getting first downs.
Worst case scenario for Liberty – The make the same mistakes as they did against Virginia Tech. SMU is a more winnable game than VT but a pile of procedure penalties and turnovers like they had against the Hokies will doom their efforts again.