(1-1) Charleston Southern @ #3 Florida State – Saturday, Sept 10th, 12:30pm (Fox Sports South, ESPN3)
CSU is a week away from the bye week that they really need right now but has FSU in the way. This is as sure an epic loss as they could possibly schedule, right?
Well, actually….there is some precedent here.
On Monday night in Orlando, Florida State pulled together enough energy, emotion and skill to construct a huge come-from-behind opening game victory against Ole Miss. The game didn’t finish until just after midnight so it’s likely that the FSU players didn’t return to campus until around 5am Tuesday morning. Head coach Jimbo Fisher probably gave the players Tuesday off and they will likely return to practice on Wednesday with two less days of preparation than normal for an early-in-the-day home kickoff against a highly-ranked, albeit from a lower division, FCS opponent whose team is built around aggressive defense and ball-control offense.
This is pretty much the exact same scenario that played out in 2010 with a highly-ranked Virginia Tech team and James Madison. VT lost a heartbreaking back-and-forth battle with Boise State to start off the season in a Monday night game that ended just after midnight in Landover, MD. They returned home around 5am that Tuesday and only went to work that Wednesday preparing for their upcoming game against an FCS opponent. By their own admission after the fact, the Virginia Tech players were not mentally ready to play when they kicked off against JMU the following Saturday. As we all remember, they lost the game in one of the biggest upsets ever. Could Florida State fall into the same pattern? Will Jameis Winston show up to give another inspirational halftime speech during the Charleston Southern game? Could CSU pull the biggest upset in college football history?
Oh, who am I kidding? No. The answer to all those things is, no. Flat no. Unequivocally, no. No, nay, non, nein, nyet, nee, neniu, nihil.
Well before CSU can figure out how to beat FSU’s players, they have to figure out which of their own players they’ll have on hand to line up against them. A quick look at the participation charts from the last two weeks shows that nine guys who got on the field against North Dakota State a mere eleven days ago did not play against Kentucky State last weekend. How many of those absences are injury-related and how many of those are players who were withheld pending their ongoing internal athletics department review is impossible to determine. What we do know is that starting quarterback Kyle Copeland is done for the 2016 season following a severe knee injury against Kentucky State. We know that his backup, Shane Bucenell, suffered either a knee or high ankle injury of his own against Kentucky State and did not return to the game. Star running back Darius Hammond went down with some sort of injury or condition that was indeterminate from the television broadcast but definitely affected his ability to simply keep his balance on the sidelines. There’s no official word on either Bucenell’s or Hammond’s prognosis but it should be safe to assume that head coach Jamey Chadwell won’t send them in just to get knocked flat by the Florida State defense. Speaking of coaches, a still-unnamed assistant coach will be serving a one-game suspension this week for recruiting violations and won’t be traveling with the team to Tallahassee. All of that comes into play before you get to the obvious athletic mismatch of the Seminoles versus the Buccaneers.
What Charleston Southern has to against Florida State: Protect the quarterback. This is easier said than done in a CSU offense that requires the quarterback to be a ball carrier and, so, averages three different starting quarterbacks a year. Counting London Johnson and TE Stephen Cagle (yes, you read that right) who finished out the Kentucky State game at quarterback, they went through four signal-callers in that game alone and, until JuCo transfer QB Robert Mitchell returns from whatever exile or undercover mission he’s been on, Johnson is the last QB listed on the roster. I imagine that CSU will spend some time this week practicing wildcat formations and, most importantly, teaching Johnson how to slide. Or, at least, go limp. On defense…hell, I have no idea. If I knew how to stop the FSU offense, I’d be a better coach than the entire staff at Ole Miss and, that, I am not.
Best case scenario for Charleston Southern – “We got better; we definitely improved. … we were pretty good as far as our discipline, our game structure and our organization. We were playing better up to the speed of the game – the FBS speed than we had before. Our ball security was very good. I thought our defense definitely did some good things.”
These were the postgame comments from former CSU head coach Jay Mills in 2010 when Charleston Southern last visited Florida State (a 62-10 loss). If Chadwell can say the same words at the end of this game, it’s as good a day as can be expected. Also, no more injuries.
Worst case scenario – More injuries.
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(0-1) Presbyterian @ (1-0) Chattanooga – Saturday, Sept 10th, 2:00pm (SoCon Digital Network)
The Presbyterian College Blue Hose return to Chattanooga for the first time since 1961 back when the game was played on the old Chamberlain Field. PC and Chatty have met three times since then, all in Clinton (where the tea is sweet and the “t” is silent) and most recently in 2015 when the Mocs handed Presbyterian a 21-0 home loss.
Chattanooga comes into the game after a dominating win against overmatched and undermanned Division II opponent Shorter College. Actually, “dominating” isn’t strong enough a word for what Chattanooga did to Shorter. It was devastation. It was the football version of the First Gulf War with Chattanooga as a constant wave of A-10 Warthogs screaming overhead and Shorter as a column of fleeing Iraqi Republican Guards just trying to find a CNN crew to surrender to before their broken down tanks exploded.
Here’s some numbers:
- 1; that’s the number of passes Shorter completed in the game – to their own team anyway
- 3; the number of Shorter first downs
- 16; Shorter’s total offensive yardage
- -39; Shorter’s deepest drive on the night, their own 39-yard line
- 12; the number of Mocs players who, individually, gained more yardage than Shorter’s entire team
- 66; points scored by Chattanooga
These numbers bear relevance this week because Presbyterian comes into this game with a solid defense of their own but still a lot to prove on offense. Last year’s meeting in Clinton between these two came down to crucial turnovers. Chattanooga racked up 400 yards of offense but only scored on one real offensive drive. The other two scores came on an extremely short field thanks to a PC fumble and a 4th-quarter pick-six that essentially salted the game away for the visitors. Meanwhile, PC only managed 117 yards of offense and never threatened. Based on Presby’s numbers last week against Central Michigan – albeit an FBS opponent –, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll fare any better this time around on the road.
What Presbyterian has to do against Chattanooga: Move the ball. CMU held Presby RB Darrell Bridges to under 50 yards rushing on 15 carries and the Blue Hose have no chance to win if they can’t get Bridges going. A year ago, Chatty held a full seventeen minute time of possession advantage as Presby just could not manage to move the chains. The PC defense played well enough that night but the offense never got in position to score.
Best case scenario for PC – The offense gets at least a dozen first downs, has zero turnovers and the defense holds serve. This is Presbyterian’s only realistic path.
Worst case scenario – Same old, same old for the Blue Hose offense and Chattanooga proves that last week’s dominance wasn’t just because they were playing Shorter.
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(1-0) Monmouth @ (0-1) Delaware State – Saturday, Sept 10th, 5:00pm (no broadcast)
As they will do a lot this year, the Monmouth Hawks take to the road – in this case, the NJ Turnpike – and head down to visit the Hornets of Delaware State University. This meeting is the back end of a home-and-home agreement with the two teams having previously met on the opening day of the 2014 season. Despite DSU taking an early lead, Monmouth won that game handily, 52-21.
Delaware State is led by head coach Kenny Carter in his second year at the wheel. DSU finished 1-10 in his first year after which, his best player, DE Gabe Sherrod, chose to take a graduate transfer and joined the Michigan State program where he got on the field against Furman this past weekend. DSU comes into this game having just been on the wrong end of a massacre at the hands of in-state rival – in the loosest possible sense of the term – Delaware. The Hornets turned the ball over 6 times and gave up nearly 400 yards of rushing alone to the Blue Hens, falling 56-14. On top of that, DSU lost their best offensive weapon on the day, WR Mason Rutherford, when he was injured on a late game punt return.
Monmouth comes into this game in high spirits. Their road win over Lehigh was the perfect way to start their season and came in the best possible fashion. They established an early lead, lost it, grabbed the lead back and then slammed the door closed when Lehigh gave them the opportunity. MU head coach Kevin Callahan probably could not have drawn the plan up any better than that.
What Monmouth has to do against Delaware State – On offense, Monmouth must keep up their forward momentum. Against Lehigh, MU used the ground game and a short passing attack to control the clock and keep Lehigh defenders on the move. Presumably, Lehigh is deeper on defense than DSU so the Hawks should have at least the same level of success against the Hornets. On defense and special teams, don’t give up the big play. Statistically, DSU has had a hard time mounting sustained drives and their points, when they get them, come from explosive plays in the kick return game or when the defense lets a receiver get behind them. Additionally, MU needs to get some consistency in their kicking game. Kicker Matt White succeeded on a 46-yard field goal against Lehigh but was only 2-of-3 on extra points. It’s great to have a kicker who can drive home kicks from 40+ but it’s absolutely necessary to have one who can hit from the extra point stripe.
Best case scenario for Monmouth against Delaware State – Establish the run game and substitute freely. There’s no conceivable way that Monmouth loses this game – believe me, I’ve tried to conceive of it – so keeping the victory margin wide while using the largest possible number of players is in MU’s best interest.
Worst case scenario for Monmouth – Lose. As I said above, I just can’t see a route to victory for DSU but, should they miraculously find one, the loss would be devastating for Monmouth’s morale and credibility. With their schedule such as it is, this is one of two games on the slate – Howard being the other – which MU simply cannot afford to lose.
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(1-0) Gardner-Webb @ (0-1) Western Carolina – Saturday, Sept 10th, 6:00pm (SoCon Digital Network)
Gardner-Webb hits the road once again this week to take on, also once again, another in-state out-of-conference FCS opponent over at “the ‘Whee” in Western Carolina. Despite the schools being only two hours apart, this will be the first time that GWU and WCU have met on the football field since the two split a home-and-home series in 2009 and 2010 when Steve Patton and Dennis Wagner were the head coaches, respectively. Gardner-Webb is 2-2 now against in-state schools under Carroll McCray with wins against Charlotte and Elon (a week ago) and losses to Wake Forest and Elon (a year ago).
This will be Western’s home opener as they come into the game fresh off a 52-7 beatdown at the hands of FBS – and recent Big XII reject – East Carolina. Under head coach Mark Speir, the Catamounts have been fairly consistent the last few years at maintaining a balanced attack offensively between run and pass. Defensively, WCU has done much the same thing, giving up roughly the same amount of yards the offense gains and in roughly equal proportions. The upshot is that WCU has been a bit of a middling team for the last couple seasons. It remains to be seen if and how Speir and new WCU defensive coordinator Dustin Landry can improve on that.
Gardner-Webb comes into this game with a legitimate chance to start off 2-0 for the first time under McCray. They completely embarrassed Elon last week – while Elon was embarrassing themselves – and will look to do the same against Western. However, WCU should present a bigger challenge to the Runnin’ Bulldogs than Elon did. Presumably, WCU got their early season jitters out of the way against East Carolina and should be a bit more prepared. I don’t know how the Catamounts conducted themselves on the field against ECU but that stat line, especially on defense, was … unfortunate.
What Gardner-Webb has to do against Western Carolina: Spread the ball around on offense. The vast majority of the Bulldog offense last week came through the legs of QB Tyler Maxwell first and RB Khalil Lewis second with everyone else a distant third through last. That’s fine when it works but Western will likely do a better job of keeping Maxwell confined and forcing him to throw the ball which, history would indicate, is not his strength. Defensively, GWU has to respect the run. Last Saturday, Gardner-Webb’s pass rush teed off on Elon’s reliance on four-receiver formations, bringing enough pressure that the Phoenix passing game never got on track whereas WCU has shown a tendency to balance the play-calling out while running multiple formations. Western should be a lot better at running the ball and, by extension, throwing it off of play-action. If the GWU safeties start getting sucked into the box, they’ll see the ball going over their heads all day.
Best case scenario for Gardner-Webb – Maxwell and Lewis are able to get to the edges and pick up where they left off from a week ago. The defense makes WCU’s young quarterback uncomfortable and forces him into bad throws. The special teams does nothing stupid. A win here would be huge for Gardner-Webb but a loss isn’t devastating.
Worst case scenario for Gardner-Webb – Maxwell and Lewis get bottled up and Maxwell has to make plays with this arm. That’s a recipe for disaster for the Runnin’ Bulldogs. Other than TE Mike Estes, there isn’t a consistent receiving threat on the team and a downfield passing attack simply doesn’t exist.
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(0-2) Point University @ (0-1) Kennesaw State – Saturday, Sept 10th, 7:00pm (Peachtree TV)
Kennesaw returns to the once-friendly confines of Fifth Third Bank Stadium for a date with the Skyhawks of NAIA Point University. Point was KSU’s homecoming opponent last October when the Owls came away with a 56-17 win. Point is already 0-2 on the year having turned the ball over 8 times and been outscored 83-18 in their first two games. (There’s a bad joke to be made here about “Point” being held nearly “scoreless” but I’ll let it pass.) Point is led by former Presbyterian defensive coordinator Julius Dixon but, a year ago, Dixon was the defensive coordinator at Shorter College. The Shorter defense, who also played Kennesaw in 2015, gave up 400+ yards to the Owls but kept their offense completely out of the end zone. Despite being outgained by nearly 300 yards, Shorter had a chance to win at the end but botched the snap on what would have been a game-winning field goal.
It’s probably a different kind of atmosphere around the KSU locker room right now than the Owls are used to. This is the first time ever that the Kennesaw program has been under .500. Going back to last year, they’ve now lost four straight and five of their last six. Head coach Brian Bohannon has been through this before – as an assistant at Navy in 2002, he was part of a team that endured a 9-game losing streak – but these Owls players never have. This week’s showdown with a non-NCAA program with a demonstrable inability to score or play defense is a prime opportunity to “get right”. Point may have the same coach that bamboozled KSU a year ago but PU (and that’s the last time I’m using that abbreviation) doesn’t have the same horses. Despite losing starting quarterback Trey White to a groin injury, Kennesaw should be able to put away the Skyhawks with relative ease.
What Kennesaw has to do against Point – Win and don’t worry about anything else. Just win. Stats don’t matter, points don’t matter, substitutions don’t matter. Just win. The Owls’ open date is on the back side of this game and will allow them to heal up some injuries before hitting the meat of their schedule.
Best case scenario for Kennesaw – Win convincingly and restore some confidence in the players and in each other. This is the only good outcome.
Worst case scenario – Anything else. ETSU may have turned out to be a better team than anyone gave them credit for but the fact remains that the Buccaneers were a team that Kennesaw destroyed a year ago and by a slightly larger margin than their score against this same Point program. For the sake of their collective psyche, the Owls must blow Point out. Regardless of the final result, if this turns into a close game, either as a shootout or a defensive quagmire, this should be seen – and rightly so – as a sign of the Kennesaw program regressing.
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(0-0) Jacksonville @ (0-1) Liberty – Saturday, Sept 10th, 7:00pm (Liberty Flames Sports Network, ESPN3)
Liberty and Jacksonville have never met on the football field. In fact, the last time that the Flames played any current member of the Pioneer League was a 12-10 loss at the hands of Morehead State in 1991 when MSU was still a member of the Ohio Valley Conference.
Jacksonville comes into this game as a complete and total unknown. Despite winning 9 games in each of the last two seasons, JU athletics underwent something of a significant philosophy change in the offseason and parted ways with their highly successful head coach Kerwin Bell. Evidently, a good many of the players were not on board with the new direction of the program and a good portion of the roster also left en masse. On top of that, new head coach Ian Shields, formerly of D2 Lenoir-Rhyne and Army before that, brings with him a triple-option offense that is vastly different from the passing attack that had been in place. The combined effect of all this attrition is that the Dolphins’ program enters the 2016 season with only 29 players on the entire roster who saw game action in 2015 and nearly 50 brand new players, most of them true freshmen. The personnel losses have been so severe that the same team that won 13 out of 16 Pioneer League games in the last two years has, this season, been picked to finish 8th in the conference, ahead of only Stetson, Valparaiso and Davidson.
Still, the Dolphins haven’t played a game yet and haven’t garnered much in terms of media attention or exposure. Liberty, essentially, is playing a guessing-game this week as to what the JU schemes are and will only find out the answers at 7:00pm on Saturday night.
What Liberty has to do against Jacksonville – Liberty must get the offense organized first and foremost. The Flames were called for eight false starts alone against Virginia Tech and that’s an area that needs to get cleaned up quickly. Defensively, Liberty’s history against the triple-option has been to attack it early with a size and speed advantage, let their offense jump out to an early lead and then back the defense off into a “containment mode”, letting the opposing team run the option in the second half, gaining yards and stats but eating up too much clock to make any real difference to the final score. This plan works but only if the Flames’ offense does as well. Simply based on scholarship numbers, Liberty should have a significant edge in athleticism and experience across the board so there’s good reason to believe that LU fans should see some fireworks on Saturday.
Best case scenario for Liberty – The LU offense executes. This objective hasn’t changed from a week ago because, well, they didn’t.
Worst case scenario for Liberty – The offense falters and it turns out that Jacksonville has caught everyone unawares by installing the run-n-shoot as their offensive scheme.