MVFC: Week 7 Preview

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Now that we’re a few games into the conference season, I thought it might be useful to start listing the conference standings for each team so that we can see where everyone is at a bit more easily. So, most teams have played 2 conference games, the ISU’s have played 3, and here’s how the conference looks right now.

1. North Dakota State – 2-0, 5-0
2. Youngstown State – 2-0, 4-1
3. South Dakota State – 2-0, 3-2
4. Western Illinois – 1-1, 4-1
5. Missouri State – 1-1, 3-2
6. Northern Iowa – 1-1, 2-3
7. South Dakota – 1-1, 2-3
8. Indiana State – 1-2, 3-3
9. Southern Illinois – 0-2, 2-3
10. Illinois State – 0-3, 2-4

The matchups for this Saturday are (all time listed in Central and all rankings from the AGS Weekly Poll):

#30 South Dakota at #35 Indiana State – 2 PM
#14 Western Illinois at #36 Missouri State – 2 PM
#11 South Dakota State at #1 North Dakota State – 2:30 PM
#23 Northern Iowa at #12 Youngstown State – 6 PM
Southern Illinois at #33 Illinois State – 6 PM

All games available on ESPN3/WatchESPN.com

#30 South Dakota at #35 Indiana State

South Dakota is now 1-1 in the conference and 2-3 overall after their victory last week against Northern Iowa. Indiana State is 1-2 in the MVFC and 3-3 on the season after their narrow 1-point loss at Western Illinois last Saturday. Both teams are now pretty much at the point in their seasons where they need to record some solid wins if they want a shot at the playoffs, due to them each having at least a couple of highly ranked teams still on their schedules (USD has WIU, SDSU, and NDSU; ISU has YSU and NDSU). While a loss doesn’t technically eliminate any of them from post-season possibility, you can pretty much assume that in all likelihood, whoever loses this game will not be playing after Thanksgiving.

South Dakota made a few waves last weekend, beating UNI in large part due to the strength of their quarterback, Chris Streveler, who (between throwing and running the ball) accounted for 310 yards of offense and 3 TDs against a fairly solid UNI defense. Streveler and RB Trevor Bouma are currently 2nd and 3rd in the conference in rushing yards per game (with 97.8 and 86.2, respectively). In their passing game, they spread the ball around a decent amount, although nobody has over 34 yards per game receiving, so their focus is really the running game. DL Colin Mertlik is currently 9th in the FCS in sacks, but the team’s tackle leader is Jet Moreland with 45 on the season. The Coyotes have probably the best kicker in the FCS this year, with Miles Bergner handling both punting and kicking duties. He currently leads the FCS with a 46.9 yard per punt average and a long of 64. He is also a perfect 6-6 on field goals, including a 50-yarder.

Indiana State put up 3 TDs in the span of ~3 minutes during the 3rd quarter against Western Illinois due to a couple of offensive TDs and an interception returned for TD. They weren’t able to finish out the game, but that doesn’t mean that Indiana State isn’t able to put up some points if they catch the right breaks. QB Isaac Harker is much more of a traditional pocket passing QB, putting up decent numbers through the air (279.3 yards per game), having a couple of primary targets in WRs Robert Tonyan (74.7 yards per game) and Bob Pugh (61.5 yards per game). Pugh is a multi-dimensional threat, handling kick/punt return duties usually and accounting for a total of 120.5 yards per game. He has been limited however, having not played in the last couple of games due to (I believe) an ankle injury, but it sounds like he’ll be back on the field for this weekend’s game. LB Jameer Thurman currently leads the team in tackles with 49 (8.2 per game) and has 9 tackles for loss, an interception, and a couple of fumble recoveries.

Overall, I think that South Dakota has a slight advantage in this game, but it’s really a coin flip. ISU has a better passing game (especially with Pugh back), USD has a better running game. Neither’s defenses are really all that great…the game is at ISU…but USD has a better kicking game. Honestly, my thoughts on who wins this one changes pretty much every time I review the numbers and stuff. At this point, I think I have to go with the Coyotes, riding momentum from their win last weekend, in a fairly high scoring game, by about a field goal.

TL:DR – South Dakota by 3

#14 Western Illinois at #36 Missouri State

Ah, the hapless Bears of Missouri State…doormat of the Missouri Valley Football Confe…..wait…what? The Bears have a winning record?….and a conference win? Well ok then. Western comes into this game at 1-1 in the conference and 4-1 overall, and coming off the previously mentioned 1-point Homecoming victory over Indiana State. Missouri State is also 1-1 in the conference, 3-2 overall (although 1 win was a lower division school) and last week received a beat down by North Dakota State (although significantly less of a “beat down” than they received at the Fargodome last year).

Western Illinois’ “vaunted” offense has dropped off a bit over the last couple of weeks, but they still have weapons that can put up some big numbers at times. QB Sean McGuire had a career day last weekend, accounting for a combined (passing + rushing) 391 yards of offense and 3 TDs. McGuire is currently averaging 247.2 yards per game and has 9 passing and 3 rushing TDs. WR Lance Lenoir is sitting at 4th in the FCS and 1st in the conference in receiving yards per game (123.4), bolstered by his 204 yard, 2 TD performance last weekend. On the ground, RB Steve McShane has dropped some from his gaudy numbers at the start of the season (at one time leading the FCS in yards per game) and is currently at #12 in the FCS and #1 in the conference with 117.4 yards per game. LB Brett Taylor leads the team in tackles with 50 (10/game, 22nd in the FCS) and has 2.5 sacks and an interception. In general, the offense is very good (although McGuire has been prone to throwing pick-6’s the last couple of games…3 in the last 2 games). The defense, however, while still very strong on the front line and LBs, is still vulnerable to long passing plays, as highlighted by a 65-yard TD pass by Indiana State last weekend and…well…pretty much all except for the 1st quarter of the previous week’s game at SDSU. If the Leathernecks are unable to fix this aspect, any team with a quality QB/WR combo will have a field day against the Western defense.

Missouri State still probably won’t be competing for the conference championship anytime soon, but they’ve definitely stepped up from their dismal 1-win season last year, with their best win being going on the road to defeat Indiana State two weekends ago. The Bears offense isn’t all that great, averaging 326.8 yards and 26.6 points per game (97th and 66th in the FCS respectively), with a slight emphasis on their running game being a little better than their passing game. Their defense, however, is pretty decent, allowing an average of 115 yards per game on the ground (19th in the FCS) and 209.8 through the air (52nd). QB Brodie Lambert  puts up an average of 115.2 yards per game, mostly to WR Malik Earl (68.2 yards per game). WR Deion Holliman is also a threat, catching 27.8 yards per game as well as averaging 25.9 yards per kick return (and has a kick return for TD). LB Dylan Cole is the “headliner” of the Bears defense, with 50 tackles, 4 for loss, and 2 interceptions. Cole is also 3rd in the FCS in forced fumbles, averaging .6 per game (roughly 2 for every 3 games). Also providing help on the defensive side is DL Colby Isbell, who is currently 9th in the FCS in sacks, averaging 1 per game.

Comparing the two teams, I think that the defenses are actually fairly similar…both not too bad against the run, but struggle somewhat against the pass. Offensively though, the Leathernecks have a distinct advantage with some of the best offensive weapons on the conference outside of Brookings, SD. I think that the Bears may be able to put up a few points, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the WIU offense, and Western should be able to win by about a TD or so.

TL:DR – Western Illinois by 7

#11 South Dakota State at #1 North Dakota State

This is a pretty huge game for both of these teams. Both are undefeated in conference play and both are highly ranked, which means that this game could very well end up being a conference championship decider. This is a battle between an offensive juggernaut and a defensive powerhouse. It’s also a rivalry game for the two teams, playing for the “Dakota Marker” trophy, in a series that has met 104 times so far starting back in 1903. The Jackrabbits are coming off of a high-scoring win at Southern Illinois and are 3-2 overall and 2-0 in the MVFC. The Bison are undefeated at 5-0 and 2-0 in the conference, and head back to Fargo after “trampling” the MSU Bears.

SDSU is a very pass-heavy team, with the 5th ranked passing offense in the FCS, but only 91st ranked rushing offense. The “stars” of the show are QB Taryn Christion, who has been passing for 327.2 yards per game and has 20 TDs so far (2nd in the FCS), and WR Jake Wieneke, who leads the FCS in receiving TDs and is 6th in receiving yards per game. Right behind him is TE Dallas Goedert, who, in large part due to his 4-TD performance against Western Illinois two weeks ago, is #2 in the FCS in receiving TDs and is 9th in receiving yards per game. The SDSU defense, however, is porous. They are giving up an average of 487 yards and 35.6 points per game. LB Christian Rozeboom leads the defense with 54 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and a 37-yard pick-6 against Western Illinois.

The Bison have more of a running offense headlined by RB King Frazier with 83.8 yards per game and 5 rushing TDs. RB Lance Dunn  also gets in on the action with 66.4 yards per game and 2 rushing TDs. QB Easton Stick has been throwing for 198 yards per game and has 9 passing TDs (and 1 rushing TD), throwing primarily to WRs RJ Urzendowski (56 yards per game and 2 TDs) and Darrius Shepherd (46 yards per game and 3 TDs). Defensively, NDSU does great against the run (4th in the FCS) but is 79th in passing yards allowed, so they’re vulnerable to some passing plays. Actually, it seems like a common problem among many of the MVFC teams lately…only one team in the conference is in the top 30 in passing yards allowed (Illinois State, and they have plenty of other problems going on right now) and 4 teams in the conference are 100th or worse (did we suddenly switch places with the Big Sky or something?). I’m actually wondering if maybe a lot of teams have really focused heavily on stopping the run to slow down teams like NDSU and Illinois State (in previous years) and have let the pass defense drop somewhat…I don’t really know if that’s what’s going on, but whatever is going on does seem odd. Anyway, some of their big-time playmakers on defense are SS Robbie Grimsley (33 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble), LB MJ Stumpf (30 tackles, 5 for loss, 1 interception), and DE Greg Menard (20 tackles, 4.5 sacks). Preseason All-Conference LB selection Nick DeLuca has been sidelined for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury (I believe he can medical redshirt this year and come back next year, but don’t quote me on that, I haven’t been following his status real recently). NDSU has also had some issues with their punting game…the kicking part if it, not the defensive part of it (they’re #1 in the FCS in punt return defense)…with a kicker who’s averaging 35.1 yards per punt, 98th in the FCS and 9th in the conference.

So, if anyone is going to take down NDSU and end their winning streak, I think it’ll have to be a team that has a stellar passing attack to take advantage of that weakness. They’ll also have to not be intimidated by the crowd at the Fargodome, so it’ll likely be a conference member (often first-time visitors to the dome underestimate the noise level and have problems with it…that’s why they’re so good in the playoffs…most teams visiting the dome have not been there much, if ever), and it’ll probably have to be some type of rivalry game or some game with heightened emotion. All of these signs point to SDSU being the most likely team this season to upset NDSU. The Bison are still too good for me to pick against them, but I think it’ll be a close one (and an upset wouldn’t entirely surprise me either). They’re not unbeatable, but nobody has done it in nearly a year (will be a year exactly this coming Monday), so until something shows me a strong reason to pick otherwise, I gotta go with the Bison.

TL:DR – North Dakota State by 6

#23 Northern Iowa at #12 Youngstown State

Despite many thinking that they would be trending up and be the #2 team in the conference this year, UNI has struggled quite a bit this year. To be fair, two of their losses were against really good teams (currently AGS Top 10 ranked), but then they lost last weekend at South Dakota (a team that was supposed to barely qualify for the application of the adjective “mediocre”). UNI is now 2-3 overall and 1-1 in the conference, and essentially needing to win probably 5 of their final 6 games to qualify for the playoffs…and with some of those games including tough matches at Youngstown State, at Western Illinois, as well as NDSU and SDSU at home…things aren’t looking so hot for the Panthers right now. Youngstown State, on the other hand, has exceeded most people’s expectations for this year, currently sitting at 4-1 with a 2-0 conference record following their win at Illinois State last weekend. Now, I will say that YSU’s schedule up to this point has been quite a bit easier than UNI’s (two bottom-half NEC conference teams as opposed to two top-ranked Big Sky teams), but they do seem to be playing well right now….then again, it is still October, and YSU has a strong track record of fading on the “back stretch”…so we’ll see.

Statistically, Northern Iowa has a pretty strong run game, both when they have the ball (23rd in the FCS) and when they are defending against the run (11th). A large part of the offensive side of this is due to their QB Aaron Bailey, who is known more for his running ability than his passing (are we sure he’s not just a wildcat RB who throws every now and then?). Bailey has thrown for 167.6 yards per game and 6 TDs, but he also leads the team in rushing with 81.4 yards per game and 6 TDs on the ground. The other major part of the ground game is RB Tyvis Smith, who’s averaging 80.2 yards per game and has 2 rushing TDs and…and…
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Panthers, you can stop it with the food ads on your athletics site…Pizza Ranch, Hy-Vee…you’re making me hungry.
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Sorry, anyway, when Bailey does pass, his primary target is WR Daurice Fountain who is averaging 44 yards per game and has 4 TDs. The defensive strength comes in large part from DL Karter Schult and LB Jared Farley. Schult has 35 tackles and is currently #1 in the FCS in both sacks (7.5) and tackles for loss (13) and has an interception, and Farley leads the team with 38 tackles…2 for loss…plus an interception.

Like nearly everyone in the MVFC these days, Youngstown State is stronger against the run (13th in the FCS) than they are against the pass (35th). Like UNI, they also focus much more heavily on their own offensive run game (10th in the FCS) than they do on their passing game (79th). The Penguins also have the 5th best scoring defense in the FCS, only giving up 16 points per game so far. Like UNI’s, YSU QB Ricky Davis is a legitimate running threat…he passes for 186.5 yards per game and has 5 TDs, but also has run for 74.8 yards per game. Their top RB is Martin Ruiz who’s putting up 78.8 yards per game and has 6 TDs. Receiving for the Penguins is apparently “by committee”, with 5 different players catching between 27 and 37 yards per game…and that 37-yard-per-game player, WR Damoun Patterson, actually leads the team in ypg. Defensively, YSU is led by DE’s Derek Rivers (16 tackles, 8 for loss w/ 7 sacks, plus 10 QB hurries and a fumble recovery) and Avery Moss (22 tackles, 5.5 for loss w/ 5 sacks, plus 4 QB hurries, and 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recover). Together with the rest of the defensive line, they comprise probably the best D-line in the conference, if not in the entire FCS, with both players in the top 10 in the FCS in sacks (and actually, with UNI’s Karter Schult, this game will have the #1, #2, and #9 best players in that category).

All signs point to a defensive battle for much of the game. Both teams have decent running games, but also have great run defenses…both teams aren’t great at passing, nor are they great against the pass. This is another one of those “coin flip” games for me, but I think the advantage goes to Youngstown…it’s being played there and as I said, they’ve been playing well…plus, it’s not November yet, so the Penguins can still win (aren’t Penguins supposed to like the cold?). I think that we’ll probably see Youngstown pull out a close one.

TL:DR – Youngstown State by 3…additionally, total score…maybe 40.

Southern Illinois at #33 Illinois State

Southern Illinois comes into this game having lost their last two games, sitting at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the conference following their high-scoring loss against South Dakota State last weekend. The Redbirds are rocking a 4-game losing streak, so after the high of their first two games including knocking off Big 10 Northwestern, they are now at 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the MVFC.

SIU’s offense is led by transfer QB Josh Straughan, who’s currently putting up 321.6 passing yards per game (6th in the FCS) and has 11 passing TDs (17th). His primary target is  WR Connor Iwema with 68.6 yards per game and 3 TDs. Also getting in on the action are WRs Billy Reed (56 ypg, 3 TDs) and Jimmy Jones (53.4 ypg and 2 TDs). On the ground, it’s mostly RB Daquan Isom, who accounts for 61 ypg and 1 TD and RB Jonathan Mixon, who, while only accounting for 17 yards per game, has crossed the goal line 4 times, which means he leads the team in TDs (caught or ran). Defensively, LB Chase Allen leads the team in tackles with 35, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble. DE Deondre Barnett leads the team in sacks with 4 (out of his 21 total tackles) as well as 4 QB hurries and 3 forced fumbles.

Illinois State is the odd one in the conference….while it seems like everyone else has good run defense but very little pass defense, ISU is the complete opposite. They’re only giving up 168 passing yards per game, good for 9th in the FCS. The rest of the defense isn’t bad (19th in the FCS for total yards allowed), but it’s the pass defense that is their strength. Unfortunately for the Redbirds, that’s about all they’ve got going for them at this point. Not sure if it’s an issue with QB Jake Kolbe (234.2 passing yards per game and 7 TDs) or more of an O-Line problem (117th in sacks allowed, 113th in tackles for loss allowed, 80th in rushing offense). The O-Line issues seem likely to me (but I admit, I could be wrong) and it’s possible that there have been problems prior to this year, but with two phenomenal rushers (Coprich and Roberson) that they were able to overcome the problems or at least minimize them significantly. Now that those guys are gone, and you’ve got decent but not stellar players in those positions, and the offensive line isn’t offering protection to the QB or opening holes…then you get the rather anemic offense that you see today. They’re a little stronger at the passing game, with WR Anthony Warrum able to haul in 84 yards per game and 2 TDs worth of catches. WR Anthony Fowler also gets in on the scoring action, with 2 TDs in addition to 35.5 yards per game. RB George Moreira is putting up just over 57 yards per game and has 3 rushing TDs. The previously mentioned pass defense is led by S Alec Kocour, who has 49 tackles and 1 interception. LB Alejandro Rivera actually leads the team in tackles with 50, as well as 1 sack and 1 interception. LB B.J. Bello has 40 tackles, including 4 sacks, 6 QB hurries, and 2 forced fumbles.

What this all adds up to is an Illinois State team that can slow down a good passing offense but not do much about a running offense, and has trouble moving the ball on offense. Southern has a great passing offense, a manageable run defense, but not too much else. I think that ISU will be able to pass the ball against SIU fairly well but won’t be able to get much going on the ground, and that SIU will be fairly limited on offense, since their strength on offense matches up with ISU’s strength on defense. I think that both teams are essentially (or nearly) out of the playoff picture, which means that this one is more for bragging rights. I think that ISU will be able to limit SIU just enough to be able to come away with a fairly close win.

TL:DR – Illinois State by 6