SWAC Week 8 Preview
Charles Wells, SWAC Contributor | October 22, 2015
JACKSON STATE vs. ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Saturday October 24 2:00 p.m. CST
Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium (60,492) Jackson, Miss.
TV: None
Series: Jackson State leads, 24-12-1
Last Meeting: September 27, 2014 – Pine Bluff, Ark.
Jackson State 33, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 30 (OT)
Stop me if you’ve read this before, but this game features two teams that are having disappointing seasons and are hoping for a win. UAPB was predicted to have a rough season and so far that has been the case. They had a not as close as the score loss to Alabama State on Thursday. The Golden Lions are struggling on offense as they are 9th ranked in total offense and 9th in scoring offense. They’ve played musical chairs at the QB position and that has hurt any chance for consistency. The running game is key for UAPB this week as they need to shorten the game to keep JSU’s passing game in check. On defense UAPB fares better as they are 4th in passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense. They don’t play the run well but that isn’t a factor against JSU. For the Blue Bengals the key is simple, let LaMontiez Ivy get the ball to his playmakers. Dan Williams and Jarious Moll are threats any time the catch the ball. JSU has to be less one dimensional, the run game has to be a factor, the Tigers are 9th in rushing offense. On defense JSU has been beaten by big plays through the air. I don’t feel like UAPB will challenge them in that regard. But for JSU to control the game they have to force UAPB to turn the ball over as the Golden Lions are a -6 in turnover margin. Both teams are having rough seasons and this won’t be a pretty game. Prediction: JSU 30 UAPB 21
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE @ GRAMBLING STATE
Saturday October 24 2:00 p.m. CST
Eddie Robinson Stadium (23,200) Grambling, La.
TV: None
Series: Grambling State leads, 49-5-2
Last Meeting: November 6, 2014 – Grambling, La.
Mississippi Valley State 23, Grambling State 38
The tour of doom continues for Valley as this week they face the hottest team in the league. Valley did have one positive last week as they scored their highest point total of the season (21 points). But the challenge rises again this week. Talking about Valley is like hearing a broken record, the Delta Devils are a young team and they haven’t had any chances to grow. This trial by fire has led them to play multiple QBs and RBs to find the right combination. Although neither has set the world on fire they seem to have settled on QB Thurston Rubin and RB Thomas Stokes. Valley’s offense is last in every major offensive category and they only average 241 yards of total offense. That obviously puts lots of pressure on their defense who has been unable to make stops. The defense plays the run decently but that is mainly because teams can run at will. The Delta Devils have not given up less than 45 points this season. The schedule makers didn’t do this team any favors as they play 10 straight games before their bye week on Nov. 14. Grambling is pure offense, their passing offense is potent as they rank 3rd in the league, they are 2nd in total offense and scoring offense. Johnathan Williams is a very dangerous QB and he should make lots of big plays connecting with multiple targets. Chester Rogers and Chad Williams should put up numbers against this secondary. The X-Factor for Grambling this year is Martez Carter, his big play running has led Grambling to the 3rd ranked rushing offense. This is a good game for Grambling’s defense, this is a pure numbers game and they should get plenty of stops to get their offense back on the field. Coming off a big win over Alcorn last week, I would usually view this as a trap game, but this is the ideal game to get the team focused again. Prediction: GSU 63 MVSU 11
SOUTHERN @ TEXAS SOUTHERN
Saturday October 24 2:00 p.m. CST
BBVA Compass Stadium (22,039) Houston, Texas
TV: None
Series: Southern leads, 45-20-4
Last Meeting: November 8, 2014 – Baton Rogue, La.
Texas Southern 20, Southern 30
Which Jaguar team will show up? Although the offense scored 40+ points for the 4th straight SWAC game the Jags were uncharacteristically careless with the football. If the Jags are starting to be more turnover prone then that will make this game much tougher. The Jags are more than capable of moving the ball through the air or on the ground. QB Austin Howard has developed into one of the better QBs in the league, he has plenty of weapons at his disposal. WR’s Willie Quinn, Randall Menard, Nico Talbert, and Mike Jones are top targets. When the Jags want to run they lean on the combo of Lenard Tillery and Malcom Crockett. Defensively is where the Jags issues arise, they have been having problems getting off the field on 3rd down and the secondary has been porous at times (9th in passing defense). One positive for the Southern defense is that they are ball hawking and will get interceptions. Texas Southern has been average statistically on offense and have yet to find a stride in games with teams that are evenly matched or better. QB Averion Hurts has potential to be a solid QB and he is the reigning SWAC offensive player of the week. His top target is 6’7” Derrick Griffin who is a matchup nightmare and it appears that TSU realizes he is on their team now. The Tigers are capable running the ball and they are led by RB Brad Woodard. On defense the Tigers rank 2nd in total defense and they play both the run and pass well enough to win. Jamal Lucas is the leading tackler and Darian Claiborne is a playmaking LB. For TSU to be successful they have to control Southern on offense and make timely plays when they have the ball. When these two teams meet it’s usually close, I feel like Southern’s mentality will be the difference in this game. If the Jags put their PVU loss behind them then they should win, if they have a hangover TSU will hang around and be difficult to put away. TSU is out of the race, Southern can ill afford another loss. Nor can they look ahead to Alcorn next week. Prediction: SU 31 TSU 24.