It’s week eight and the race for the Southern Conference title is still up for grabs. The Citadel is in the driver’s seat after knocking off Chattanooga last week, but there is a lot of football yet to play. The Citadel travels to Spartanburg to face Wofford who hopes to get a much needed win over a top 10 team to bolster its playoff hopes. VMI visits Chattanooga as the Mocs try and bounce back after losing this past week. Mercer goes out of conference to face the Austin Peay Governors of the Ohio Valley Conference. Western Carolina is still looking for its first conference win at Samford. But first, the ETSU Bucs go out of conference with a Div II opponent on Thursday night when they face West Virginia Wesleyan. (SOCON Weekly notes)
West Virginia Wesleyan at ETSU Thursday 7:30PM (SOCON Network)
ETSU, now in its second year back playing football, had a great start. They knocked off Kennesaw State of the Big South, also in its second year of football, and also beat an inconsistent Western Carolina team. It has been all downhill from there. The ETSU Bucs have scored a total of 21 points in the last 4 games.
The Bucs are ranked at or near the bottom in the SOCON in many statistical categories. They are simply getting overwhelmed by very experienced SOCON teams. Their QB, Austin Herink, has gone 86/148 through the air for 777 yards on the year and has 3 TDs and 2 interceptions. They have only averaged 103 yards a game on the ground. ETSU is actually converting third downs 42% of the time, so they have moved the ball occasionally on drives. They just are not finishing them. The way they won their first two games was by finishing drives and maintaining a good TOP to keep their inexperienced defense off the field. But they have steadily gotten worse in that department.
This week they face a mediocre to poor Div II team in the WV Wesleyan Bobcats. If the Bucs don’t relax too much and execute well, they should be able to gain some much needed confidence, and their third win of the season. Bucs by at least 2 TDs.
#5 The Citadel at #25 Wofford 1:30PM (ESPN3) (The Citadel game notes) (Wofford game notes)
The Citadel faces its second top 25 team in as many weeks, this time on the road. It will be the 5th road game of the year for the Bulldogs in seven games. Wofford had last week off while The Citadel is coming off its biggest win in a while as it took down Chattanooga.
It’s run against run this Saturday in Spartanburg. With both teams running the option, they execute very good ball control. The Citadel is #1 in FCS in time of possession at over 35 minutes a game. Normally that would be a huge advantage, except Wofford in #2 in this stat and only behind by a few seconds a game.
The Citadel has had a lot of success lately in keeping drives going. It converts 52% of its third downs. Wofford has done almost as well at 48%. The Citadel leads FCS in yards rushing per game at 381. Wofford is at #4 with 312 yards a game. Neither team can expect to gain much advantage by holding the ball a long time on grinding drives.
The game is going to be decided by how well each team’s defense performs. However, they both know how to defend against the option. While there may be some passing here and there, these teams are ranked dead last at #121 and 122 in passing yards this season so don’t expect a lot of passes. Last year’s matchup did featured 26 pass attempts between them. So far this year The Citadel is averaging 7 attempts a game and Wofford is averaging 10 attempts a game. Who knows, they might just have to open up an aerial attack if they are both successful stopping each other on the ground. Wofford is allowing the lowest rushing total in FCS so far at 50 yards a game, but they have not had any serious running offenses to deal with either. The Citadel has allowed 108 yards on the ground a game, but they have faced credible running attacks in both Mercer and UTC. Overall, The Citadel is giving up 301 total yards a game and Wofford is allowing 254 a game which is good enough for the #2 spot in FCS.
In stopping drives The Citadel has a slight edge holding opponents to a 33% success rate on third downs. Wofford is allowing conversions 43% of the time. In the red zone, Wofford has allowed TDs in 10 of 14 tries. The Citadel held opponents to TDs 6 times in 10 tries. The Citadel defense has done a good job in the second half this year and specifically the fourth quarter. It has only allowed 14 points all year in the 4th. However, Wofford has done almost as well only allowing 17 points in the final period. Both of these teams know how to finish games.
With very similar game plans and capable defenses, the game might be decided by turnovers and special teams. Both teams are on the plus side on turnovers with Wofford at +6 and The Citadel at +5. On special teams, Wofford has the SOCON punting leader who averages 47 yards a kick. The Citadel punter averages 41. On punt returns The Citadel averages 12 yard a return, Wofford averages 4. The Citadel is leading the SOCON in kickoff returns at 24 yards a return and Wofford is last with 17 yards a return. Wofford’s field goal kicker has gone 7 for 10, but one of those was a 57 yarder so he has a pretty good leg. The Citadel’s kicker has been successful on 6 of 8 with a long of 45. Both teams appear fairly matched on specials as well.
Although Wofford has been successful running, their current QB has not gotten a lot of yards since taking over completely a few weeks ago. Wofford had been playing QB by committee previously. Brandon Goodson is the third QB this year after they lost the first two to injuries. The dynamic Bulldog QB Dominique Allen will be the difference in the game and will keep the chains moving a bit more than the Terriers. In the first three games this year The Citadel averaged 291 yards rushing a game. Allen got some playing time in two of those games but didn’t start. In the next three games, with Allen starting, the Dogs have averaged 471 yards a game rushing. The experience he brings was really demonstrated in the game against Chattanooga where he rushed for a career high 135 yards. As a result, the Bulldogs should win by more than a TD.
VMI at #10 Chattanooga 2PM (SOCON Network) (VMI game notes) (UTC game notes)
VMI was manhandled a bit last week by Samford. The Chattanooga Mocs lost their first one of the year as they lost at The Citadel. They will be hungry to stay in the hunt for the title, especially if The Citadel stumble later on. The biggest question for this game is whether the Mocs outstanding running back Derrick Craine will play. He tweaked an ankle during the game in Charleston. Chattanooga will no doubt take a hit without him. He is a play maker.
The Mocs are averaging 424 yards a game on offense. Craine accounted for 119 of those on average. Chattanooga’s QB, Alejandro Bennifield has gone 105/160 for 1474 yards with 16 TDs and 4 interceptions on the year. Even without Craine, the Mocs are formidable. On the ground, UTC is averaging 206 yards a game.
As good as those numbers are, the Mocs real strength lies in their defense. They give up only 245 yards a game. Good enough for the #1 spot in FCS. Against the pass, they are #1 as well, but their numbers were obviously bolstered by the huge 7 yards they gave up to the Citadel. Still, they are giving up only 135 yards a game through the air and have 5 interceptions. The Mocs have 16 sacks on the year as well.
That isn’t good news for the Keydets who thrive on the pass. Although VMI has attempted to run more this year than they have, their success is primarily through the air and the arm of Al Cobb. Cobb has gone 144/215 for 1459 yards and tossed 8 TDs and 5 interceptions. The Keydets have 129 yards per game on the ground. They are converting 36% of their third downs.
On defense VMI continues to give up huge chunks of yards, 435 a game. But they are stopping opponents on third downs fairly well and are holding them to a third down conversion rate of 34%. They only have 10 sacks on the year with Jr linebacker Ryan Francis leading the way with 6. They average just over 6 tackles for loss a game on defense.
VMI will probably not give up the huge number of yards through the air that it allowed against Samford’s Hodges. However, they will still have their hands full with Bennifield and the Mocs outstanding receiver Xavier Borishade. If Cobb can keep from turning it over, they may be able to keep it close, especially if Craine does not play. But the Mocs should win in either event and by at least 3 TDs.
Mercer at Austin Peay 4PM (OVC Network) (Mercer game notes)
Mercer finally opened up a little against WCU last week. They got a little help with some turnovers, but they executed well and finally got a comfortable win this year. This is the third time that the Bears will face the Governors of Austin Peay. They won the first two fairly easily. This year Austin Peay has yet to win a game and is at 0-6. However, they tried to make a game of it against Jacksonville State this past week and were only down 14-7 at half.
The Bears have done well on offense this year and have averaged 401 yards a game. They have a fairly balanced offense with 230 through the air and 171 on the ground. QB John Russ has gone 123/196 for 1373 total yards with 9 TDs and only 3 interceptions. Alex Lakes and Payton Usher are top 10 SOCON rushers and average 115 yards a game combined. Mercer has moved the ball well and converted third downs 45% of the time. The Bears has benefited in turnovers and is at +5 for the season.
On defense Mercer has given up 407 yards a game, including 174 on the ground and 233 through the air. They have 14 sacks on the year. Their special teams are solid. One area that the Bear could improve in is penalties. They average 7 a game for 77 yards.
Austin Peay only gains about 312 yards a game and surrender over 550. Mercer should be able to move the ball against them fairly easily. The Governors allow over 300 yards through the air each game so Russ should have a good day. Look for the Bears to win by at least 14.
Western Carolina at #17 Samford 7PM (TV-ASN) (WCU game notes) (Samford game notes)
The Samford Bulldogs have one of the most explosive passing offenses in FCS. The Catamounts of Western Carolina are going to have their hands full. The Cats have a pretty good pass attack as well, but it doesn’t come close to Samford’s. If the Bulldogs has a weakness, it is their dismal running game. But since they keep winning it has not hurt them lately. They have only lost to Chattanooga so far. The Central Arkansas game was tight at the end although the Bulldogs pull that one out after going up big to start. In both those cases, Samford simply could not keep the ball away from the opposing offenses long enough to keep them from scoring. Samford’s scoring drives are usually under 2 minutes and some under a minute. In other words, their defense is on the field a lot.
The Samford defense gives up yards to the tune of 396 a game so far. That includes 222 in the air and 174 on the ground. Their time of possession is pretty low at about 25 minutes a game. That might have really helped WCU in this game if it were not for the fact that they are even worse at only 23 minutes of possession a game. The Cats can move the ball, but they do it in big chunks and not steady drives. They average 398 yards a game with 284 through the air on average. Western is only converting its third downs at a 34% rate.
Tyrie Adams, the Cats redshirt freshman QB, has done well in his first year starting going 140/212 with 11 TDs and 7 interceptions. Western has been sacked 16 times so far this year though and he hasn’t always had time to get off good passes. But when he does, he is pretty accurate. WCU does have a passable running game with Detrez Newsome leading the way. He is averaging 75 yards a game rushing, 36 receiving, as well as returning kickoffs. He is an athlete for sure. If the Cats have any hope in getting a win on Saturday they at least have to keep the ball away from Samford’s Devlin Hodges for as long as possible.
Hodges has gone 180/249 for 2070 yards so far. He has 22 TDs and only 4 interceptions. He is quite a capable passer. He put up over 400 yards passing in the last two games against Furman and VMI. He had over 300 at Wofford and UTC. Samford is currently at #3 in FCS in passing yards. As mentioned already, the only weakness Samford has, especially if someone can shut Hodges down, is that they have no running game. At all. If you take away the 221 yards they got against Div II Mars Hill, they have a total of 252 yards in 5 games for just about 50 yards a game against Div I opponents. That’s even worse than The Citadel’s or Wofford’s passing game.
Western’s defense has giving up almost 500 yards a game, but only 186 of those through the air. But it should be noted that they have faced The Citadel, Wofford and Gardner-Webb who all have predominantly running games. So the numbers are a bit skewed as a result. Against ECU they gave up 413 passing yards and 224 in the air against Mercer’s balance attack. The Cats defense only has 5 sacks on the year as well.
The one area that WCU has got to get under control is its turnovers. They are at -8 right now. They have lost 8 fumbles and 7 interceptions. Samford is going to eat them alive if they turn it over. The Bulldogs already have 2 pick sixes and 2 scoop and scores on fumbles.
All that said, Samford and Hodges are on a roll right now and they will be just a bit much for the Catamounts defense. Samford is probably also looking to avenge the thumping the Catamounts gave them last year in Cullowhee. Samford should win by at least 3 TDs.