Week seven in the Southern Conference has some great matchups. First, two top ten teams will go at it as The Citadel hosts Chattanooga. There will also be an aerial showcase as two of the most talented passers in FCS will be going at it as VMI travels to Samford. Both Mercer and Western Carolina will try and get back to winning ways as they meet in Macon, and Furman will see if it can find a win at ETSU. Wofford is idle. (SOCON weekly notes)
#5 Chattanooga at #7 The Citadel 3PM (TV FoxSSE/ESPN3) (Cid game notes) (UTC game notes)
The Citadel Bulldogs will host the Mocs of Chattanooga in the last matchup of unbeaten FCS teams this season. The Bulldogs (5-0, 3-0) are ranked #1 in FCS in rushing per game and #3 in tackles allowed for a loss. The Mocs (6-0, 4-0) claim the #1 spot in FCS for total defense and the #3 spot for rushing defense. It should be a hard fought and exciting game. The winner will have a leg up on the Southern Conference championship and result in a likely seed in the FCS playoffs.
The Citadel started the season a bit slow winning by slim margins to Mercer, Furman and Gardner Webb with fourth quarter come from behind victories each time. But its starting quarterback was out the first game and got limited playing time in the next two. Since then, with Dominique Allen at the helm, the Dogs have averaged 600 yards a game. The average rushing yards gained by the Dogs’ option attack outweigh the pass yards by a wide margin, 389 to 65 each game. But the Bulldogs usually hit pay dirt when they do connect and they get 18 yards per completion. Overall the Bulldog passers are 18/38 with 3 TDs and 1 interception. The Dogs have a solid 49% third down conversion rate which keeps drives going. They are at 50% on 4th down tries. In the red zone the Dogs have not done well scoring TDs on just 12 of 21 tries. The Citadel checks in at # 2 in FCS in TOP at 35:00 minutes a game.
On defense the Bulldogs have allowed a stingy 119 yards a game on the ground and 183 per game through the air. The defense has especially been effective in the fourth quarters. It has only allowed 14 fourth quarter points, total, in 5 games and a total of 208 yards in all 4th quarters for an average of 42 yards a game. They finish games well. The Dogs are tied for #6 in FCS allowing only 17.8 points a game. The Citadel defense has also snagged a conference leading 6 interceptions on the year. It also leads the SOCON in sacks with 18 for 129 yards. The Citadel defense is allowing opponents to convert third down only 26% of the time and have stopped all 3 of the fourth down tries it has faced. Red zone defense has allowed 8 scores in 8 tries, but only 5 TDs. The key number here is there have not been many drives into the red zone.
Special teams have been solid for The Citadel. Kickoff returns are averaging a hair under 25 yards. Kickoff coverage allows 23 yard returns on average. Bulldog punt returners have averaged 14 yards a try with one TD return. The Citadel has allowed 3 punt returns all year for a total of 4 return yards. The field goal kicker has attempted 6 field goals making 4 of them. He connected on long of 45 and has missed a 42 and 44 yard try. The Citadel has averaged 59 yards in penalties per game.
The Mocs have an extremely balanced and effective offense led by quarterback Alejandro Bennifield. They have passed for an average of 215 yards a game and ran for 231. Overall Mocs passers have gone 93/139 with 15 TDs and 4 interceptions. The Mocs also hold the lead in passing efficiency in the SOCON with 174.5. On third downs UTC has gone 37%. On fourth downs they have converted 7 of 9. They lead the SOCON in total first downs with nearly 22 a game. In the red zone the Mocs have made 21 TDs in 28 tries. Chattanooga has a TOP of 34:10 per game.
On Defense the Mocs are tops, literally. They lead the FCS in total defense giving up a mere 226 yards a game which equates to 3.8 yards a play. They come in at #3 in FCS for rushing defense allowing only 72 yards a game. They are at #4 for passing defense giving up 154 a game. This has allowed them to also lead the nation in scoring defense at grudging 12.2 points a game. They also lead the FCS in 3rd down conversion defense allowing just a 22% success rate. They have gotten to the opposing QBs 16 times for 2.67 sacks a game for 122 yards on the year. They have registered 6.8 tackles for loss per game which is what they need to do to stop The Citadel. In red zone defense UTC has allowed 8 TDs on 10 tries. Like The Citadel, they didn’t let many get to the red zone.
There are only a couple issues on special teams, otherwise they are sturdy. They are last in the SOCON on kickoff returns with 17.4 yards per try, but that includes 2 on-side kicks which they foiled. They are averaging 8.4 yards on punt returns. They have a net punting average of 38 per kick and return. The Mocs field goal kicker has attempted 6 times and made 5 with a long of 52. He missed a 45 yarder. They have had two kicks blocked. They have also had a punt blocked. They are averaging about 60 yards per game in penalties.
In addition to the Outstanding QBs for each team, the Mocs have Derrick Craine running the ball for 113 yards a game and averaging 7.2 yards a carry. He leads the SOCON in rushing. Mocs receiver Xavier Borishade is averaging 4.2 receptions and 83.2 yards per game. On defense the Mocs have Dale Warren, Vantrel McMillan and Keionta Davis all recording loads of tackles for loss. Davis has 5 sacks.
The Citadel has 5 of the top 10 SOCON rushers including Tyler Renew, Reggie Williams, and Cam Jackson leading the way with a combined 230 yards a game between them. DeAndre Schultz is the Dog’s punt returner and has a league leading 14.5 yard average return. On defense, The Citadel’s Kailik Williams is averaging 8 tackles a game. Travis Johnson has three sacks on the year. Cornerback Dee Delaney has 3 interceptions and linebacker Joe Crochet has two fumbles recovered.
This game will obviously pit the option attack of The Citadel against the stubborn defense of Chattanooga. The one dimensional nature of the Bulldogs offense will give the Mocs an advantage, but it can also be punishing. If the Bulldogs can sustain drives and maintain TOP, they can control the pace of the game. But if the Chattanooga defense can force lots of 3rd and longs and stay off the field, it may be a long day for the Dogs. It is imperative for The Citadel to not turn it over as well. If they give a team like Chattanooga extra possessions, it will be over quickly. If the Mocs get the ball often, they are very capable of grinding some long drives of their own. Chattanooga can chew up clock in a very methodical way, but they can also be explosive as well with 30 plays gaining 20 or more yards so far this season.
My head says Chattanooga by 14, but my heart says The Citadel by 3. One of them will be right.
VMI at #19 Samford 3PM (ESPN3) (VMI game notes) (Samford game notes)
The VMI Keydets travel to Samford to face the #19 Bulldogs this week. This is an interesting game in that it will include two of the best QBs in FCS, Samford’s Devlin Hodges and VMI’s Al Cobb.
Hodges comes into the game 145/199 with 17 TDs and 3 interceptions. He averages 327 yards a game. The Bulldog’s passing attack is explosive. 1-2 minute drives are very common. Cobb is 121/184 with 8 TDs and 3 interceptions. And while VMI’s passing game is not quite as explosive as Samford’s is, VMI has a little bit better running game. VMI is averaging 138 yards a game to Samford’s meager 75 yards. Samford did up their game a bit last week against Furman, but their running game is still pitiful.
Samford’s and VMI’s defenses are not that good and they come in at #7 and 8 in the conference. Samford allows 409 yards a game and VMI 411 yards. But VMI gives up a lot yards per game through the air; 264 a game. This does not bode well for the Keydets. VMI has recorded 10 sacks on the year and Samford has allowed a league worse 16 sack so far.
If VMI is to stop Hodges they will need to put some pressure on him. They will also need to get some long drives to keep the ball away from Hodges. VMI converts about 38% of the time on 3rd downs. Samford has converted only 32% on third downs, but it really doesn’t need to with Hodges tossing it deep and accurately so often. If Samford could get a running game going as well, they will be a seriously dangerous team.
Look for Samford to continue their high powered passing game and throw it past the Keydets by at least 14 points.
Western Carolina at Mercer 4PM (ESPN3) (WCU game notes) (Mercer game notes)
With both teams coming off losses, it will be a hard fought battle. The Mercer Bears are stinging from their beat down at the hands of the Mocs last week. Western played well against Wofford but came up short.
Mercer is a disciplined team and does not get rattled easily. QB John Russ is 105/164 with 6 TDs and 3 interceptions on the year. He averages 227 yards a game. Mercer also has good running backs in Payton Usher and Alex Lakes. They were shut down a bit by the Mocs defense last week, but should have success against WCU which is giving up over 300 yards a game on the ground.
WCU’s QB Tyrie Adams is 115/173 with 9 TDs and 5 interceptions. He is racking up 262 yards a game. A bit inexperienced, he is still dangerous if his line gives him time. The Catamounts have given up 14 sacks on the year. The Mercer defense has recorded 13 sacks on the year. WCU also has a play maker in Detrez Newsome. He is getting 73 yards a game rushing, 30 yards receiving, returns Kickoffs as well. He leads the SOCON in all purpose yards at 175 yards a game.
Western Carolina allows opponents to convert on 3rd downs 55% of the time and they are giving up almost 500 yards a game. Mercer will be hungry this game. They can move the ball well and convert on third downs 44% of the time. Expect Mercer to execute some long drives and stay ahead of the Cats and win by at least 10.
Furman at ETSU 12PM (SOCON Network)
The Furman Paladins are still looking for that elusive win. Now at 0-6, for the first time since 1955, they may be able to get one this week against the struggling Bucs of ETSU. ETSU started the season well, but continue to falter and are now 2-3.
Furman has been hit a bit with injuries on defense. But they are expected to get back some talent this week and that it not good news to the Bucs. ETSU has scored a total of 14 points in the last 3 games. The Bucs are averaging just 253 yards a game QB Austin Herink has gone 78/127 and 3 TDs with 2 interceptions. ETSU is also gaining just 98 yards per game on the ground. Furman has been giving up yards and it has held opponents to about a 40% 3rd down conversion rate. But as mentioned previously, its competition has been pretty severe to date including Mich St, The Citadel, UTC, Coastal Carolina, and Samford. The Massey Computer ranks their schedule as the 4th toughest in FCS.
Meanwhile Furman, who has struggled early in moving the ball, seems to finally be doing better. They are now averaging 342 yards a game and are scoring a bit more as well. The change came when Reese Hannon took over as QB in the UTC game. They still have an anemic running game totaling just 88 yards per game, but against an ETSU defense that gives up over 200 a game they might find some success. The Bucs are giving up 400 yards a game total. ETSU has gotten to the opposing QBs for sacks just 8 times this year.
Turnovers have plagued Furman as they have surrendered 5 fumbles and 10 interceptions on the year so far. In one bright spot for the Paladins, they lead the SOCON in fewest penalties with 43 yards a game. ETSU has held on to the ball well and is at +2 for the year.
As dismal as Furman may feel right now, they didn’t look that bad this past week against Samford. At this point, they have got to be ready to put a game together. With ETSU struggling, this may well be the game to get that win and the Paladins may go big to get some frustration out of their system. Furman will prevail by at least 28.