UCABEAR (AnyGivenSaturday.com), SLC Contributor | October 08, 2015
SLC Preview
GAMES for 10/10
SLC Standings:
McNeese 3-0
Southeastern La. 2-0
UCA 2-0
UIW 2-1
ACU 2-1
Sam Houston 2-1
Lamar 1-1
Houston Baptist 0-2
Nicholls 0-2
Northwestern State 0-3
Stephen F. Austin 0-3
This week’s games:
UCA at HBU
Nicholls at SFA
UIW at Sam Houston
ACU at Lamar
SLU at McNeese
Let’s look at these games carefully:
Southeastern Louisiana (2-0) at McNeese (3-0)
Whoever wins this game gets to keep the conference lead. This is the game of the week for the Southland conference fans. Will it be the tricky offense of the Lions beating out the potent defense of the Cowboys? Let’s look at how these two teams stack up in the statistics.
Points allowed per game: McNeese 6 SLU 25. Advantage McNeese.
Points scored per game: McNeese 36 SLU 26. Advantage McNeese.
Rushing per game: McNeese 247 SLU 252. TIE
Rushing allowed per game: McNeese 76 SLU 102. Slight edge McNeese.
Passing yards per game: McNeese 200 SLU 135. Advantage McNeese
Passing yards allowed per game: McNeese 170 SLU 276. Advantage McNeese.
Observation: Looking at the stats above McNeese appears to have the edge in many aspects of this game. Plus it’s a home game for the Cowboys. However the schedule has been easier for McNeese comparatively for the Lions. Three wins by the Cowboys come to teams that have only won a grand total combined 25% of their games with two of the teams being completely defeated on the season.
Prediction: Cowboys finally get to play some competition this week but not enough to ruin tailgating.
McNeese 35 SLU 21
Central Arkansas (2-0) at Houston Baptist (0-2)
While Houston Baptist is much improved from last year, sometimes it’s about matchups. After defeating the Huskies 70-0 last year at Estes Stadium in Conway, the Bears look to improve on their conference record for a first ever game at the Huskies home field. UCA has come alive the last two games holding opponents to small yardage and low scores while getting to play second string guys early in those games.
Let’s look at how the two teams compare: YEAR TO DATE CONFERENCE ONLY
Points per game: UCA 46 HBU 17. Advantage UCA
Points per game allowed: UCA 17 HBU 56. Advantage UCA
Passing yards per game: UCA 232 HBU 81. Advantage UCA
Passing Defense per game: UCA 228 HBU 353. Advantage UCA.
Rushing yards per game: UCA 263 HBU 208. Advantage UCA
Rushing yards allowed per game: UCA 81 HBU 215. Advantage UCA
Observation: HBU is simply giving up too many points per game and only getting 81 passing yards per game. UCA’s defense will have a field day in this one.
Prediction: UCA 56 HBU 7
Nicholls (0-2) at SFA (0-3)
Battle of the defeated. But this should be a day that Lumberjack fans rejoice. This is their best shot at a victory this year as being 0-5 is the last thing fans expected. Expect a massive running game to propel the Lumberjacks to victory.
Let’s look at the conference only season stats for this matchup:
Points per game: SFA 24 Nicholls 8. Advantage SFA
Points per game allowed: SFA 32 Nicholls 28. Slight advantage Nicholls
Passing yards per game: SFA 214 Nicholls 170. Advantage SFA
Passing yards allowed per game: SFA 214 Nicholls 178. Advantage Nicholls
Rushing YPG: SFA 269 Nicholls 83. Advantage SFA
Rushing YPG Allowed: SFA 210 Nicholls 209. TIE
Observation: Looking at the above stats SFA’s rushing game should allow them to outscore the Colonels in this matchup easily minus any fumbles or loss of possessions. Plus the Lumberjacks are VERY hungry for a win.
Prediction: SFA 42 Nicholls 10
UIW (2-1) at Sam Houston (2-1)
One team will keep its conference title hopes alive while the other will fall into the middle of the pack.
This should be a game of passing and passing defense as Sam Houston leads the conference in both statistical areas.
Points per game: Sam 48 UIW 24. Advantage Sam
Points allowed per game. Sam 30 UIW 28. TIE
Rushing YPG: Sam 211 UIW 131. Advantage SAM
Rushing defense per game: Sam 290 UIW 197. Advantage UIW
Passing YPG: Sam 361 UIW 202. Advantage Sam
Passing YPG defense: Sam 145 UIW 185. Advantage Sam
Observation: While UIW is able to hold opponents under 200 yards rushing Sam Houston is able to carve out nearly 400 yards passing on any team so far. Plus their defense is held together by great CB play.
Prediction: Sam Houston 48 UIW 28
ACU(2-1) at Lamar (1-1)
Same scenario falls to the victor of this game as does the winner of the Sam Houston and UIW game. The winner remains in the title hunt while the defeated falls back in this tight conference race. This is the closest game of the week between two pretty even teams.
Let’s look at these conference only team stats:
Points per game: Lamar 38 ACU 33. Slight advantage Lamar
Points per game allowed: Lamar 38 ACU 31. Slight advantage ACU
Passing YPG: Lamar 201 ACU 224. Slight advantage ACU
Passing YPG allowed: Lamar 324 ACU 185. Advantage ACU
Rushing YPG: Lamar 256 ACU 150. Advantage Lamar
Rushing YPG allowed: Lamar 225 ACU 259. Advantage Lamar
Observation: Lamar may run the clock out on the Wildcats defense as they run wild on opponents however they lack a passing defense allowing too many yards per game. This may come down to who makes the least mistakes.
Prediction: Lamar 35 ACU 31