The Southern Conference has 4 conference match ups and 1 out of conference game with Div II North Greenville traveling to Charleston to meet the # 7 Bulldogs of The Citadel. Furman is still looking for its first win of the season against #19 Samford, while Mercer travels to Chattanooga where it will try to repeat an upset performance against the #5 Mocs. Chattanooga and The Citadel remain the only unbeatens in the conference, with Samford, Wofford, Mercer, and VMI each with 1 loss. Those four will all be fighting to not go any deeper in the hole. (SOCON Notes)
#19 Samford at Furman 1PM (ESPN3)
Furman is still looking for its first win. They are sitting at 0-5. As I mentioned in the Week 5 review, Furman has not had three consecutive losing season since Eisenhower was President. They need to win out to prevent that. Probably already a done deal, but they can at least salvage some semblance of honor if they win a few. Beating the #19 Samford Bulldogs would go along way in restoring some hope for the Paladin faithful.
It may sound like a broken record, but Furman is the best winless team in the country. Still doesn’t sound good, but anyone who sleeps on them will surely get stomped. They have a rapidly improving offense now led by QB Reese Hannon. They are now averaging 246 yards a game through the air. But they are a bit one dimensional with just 83 yards on the ground. Furman passers have only been sacked 7 times all year so they are getting time. Furman biggest impediment to success is by far their repeated tendency to give the ball to the other team. After 5 games they at -9 in turnover margin including 9 interceptions. If they have a game where they go on the plus side in turnovers they may be able to actually win. They are also leading the SOCON in fewest penalties per game and yardage with just 44 each game.
Samford is a bit one dimensional as well. I have mentioned it before, but in their three Div I games they have totaled just 51 yards on the ground. That is 17 yards a game. If not for their conference leading 323 yards through the air, they would be in serious trouble. Overall they have gone 126/172 for 1292 yards in 4 games. More impressively they have 15 passing TDs and only 2 interceptions. Not too shabby.
On defense Furman has been sporadic. After having played four very good games defending, they broke down a bit last week against Kennesaw State. But they did recover nicely in the second half, so the skill is there. After allowing big numbers this past week they have fallen a bit and now are allowing an average of 379 yards a game, but they are still formidable. Their pass defense stands at 149 yards a game. That should cause Samford a little concern but considering that Furman has been playing balanced or run oriented teams, this will be a true test to how good their pass defense really is.
Samford’s defense has not done well limiting yards and has allowed 408 a game, even if they have been winning. This was skewed by a ridiculous 577 yards they gave up to Central Arkansas early in the season. They have allowed only 195 through the air per game, so unless Furman gets something going on the ground, they may be able to limit them.
I keep picking Furman every week and they keep disappointing me. They went on the road last year to beat Samford and have won 12 of the last 15 against Samford. But I think the road to recovery will take a bit longer for the Paladins. Samford should win in Greenville, but I think Furman makes a game of it. Samford by 5.
ETSU at VMI 1:30 PM (ESPN3)
ETSU started the season like gangbusters beating Kennesaw State and Western Carolina, but they have faltered badly since then, losing to Wofford and UTC by wide margins. VMI also started the season well winning two of three on the road. After their heartbreaking loss this past week to Mercer in OT, they will try and bounce back.
VMI has been gaining a good 388 yards in offense with 273 of those through the air. QB Al Cobb has been decent in 4 games going 107/164 with 3 interceptions and 5 TDs. The 3 interceptions all came in the Bucknell game so he is being more careful this year. VMI is also establishing a running game as well averaging 115 yards a game. Not great, but at least they are not totally reliant on Cobb.
ETSU is currently last in the SOCON for total offense with just 250 yards a game. They have faced two pretty tough defenses the last 2 weeks in UTC and Wofford. QB Austin Herink has gone 67/104 for 603 yards with 1 interception and only three TDs. They are averaging just under 100 yards a game in rushing.
Defensively VMI has been giving up a lot of real estate with 448 yards given up each game including 288 through the air. They are averaging about 2 sacks a game. However, they have been limiting opponents to a pretty decent 38% on third down tries.
ETSU has done ok on defense giving up 386 yards a game including 208 on the ground. After doing fairly well controlling the clock their first two games, they are now in negative territory with only 28 minutes possession per game. Both teams are at +2 in the turnover column. The Bucs are, as expected for a 2nd year team, getting flagged quite a bit with 66 yards a game. VMI is doing pretty good at 46 yards a game.
VMI is at home for the second time this season and they will be itching to claim a victory for the home crowd. The Keydets get some outstanding support from their Corps. VMI should be able to throw and run their way to at least a 2 score victory.
North Greenville at #7 The Citadel 2PM (ESPN3)
(Update) Due to Hurricane Matthew, the game location has been changed to North Greenville University, Tigerville, SC and will be played at 7PM on Thursday, 6 Oct. Parents Day festivities for The Citadel have been cancelled and will be rescheduled for The UTC game on 15 Oct. Video of the game may be available per the North Greenville Athletic site. (N Greenville Video link)
Whether this game goes off as scheduled is yet to be determined at the time of this writing. Hurricane Matthew is meandering its way toward to the US and the Carolina coast and is expected to be offshore of Charleston pretty much at game time. What the contingency plans are is anyone’s guess. They have not been released. But in case it goes off as planned or somewhere else or on Sunday, it should be another great performance by The Citadel Bulldogs.
The Citadel offense may finally be running on all cylinders. It now leads FCS in rushing per game at 346 yards. It is converting 49% of its third downs. It is hogging the ball for 34 minutes a game. Although its passing game is more than a little bit lean, it is averaging 19 yards a completion. Overall the Bulldogs have gone 15/32 for 71 yards a game. They have 1 interception and 2 TD throws.
On special teams the Dogs are leading the SOCON in kickoff and punt returns. It is first in the SOCON in turnover margin as well at +5. The area that has hurt The Citadel is penalties. It had about 60 yards in punt returns nullified last week due to flags for blocks in the back on the returns. It is averaging about 63 yards a game.
The Bulldog defense has been hitting full stride as well. It has allowed 284 yards a game and a stingy 29% of opponent 3rd down tries. The Dogs have a conference leading 5 interceptions and 3.5 sacks per game.
As much as I want to say something about overlooking this opponent with Chattanooga 2 weeks out, I think the Dogs will roll big and pad their stats which are already pretty darn good. Dogs by more than 35.
Mercer at #5 Chattanooga 4PM (SOCON Network)
Chattanooga was sitting pretty at #4 with a seed in the playoffs likely. They had The Citadel the following week and all they had to do was beat Mercer in its sophomore year in the SOCON. Mercer beat them. That was last year. This year Chattanooga is sitting pretty at #5 with a seed again as a possibility. They have The Citadel again the following week and all they have to do beat a pesky Mercer who has visions of being a SOCON power in their third year in the conference. Should make for a great game, but don’t expect the Mocs to be looking ahead this year.
Chattanooga’s trademark has been its defense. They lead the FCS in total defense giving up just 203 yards a game including just 62 a game on the ground. They average 3 sacks a game. They lead FCS in scoring defense as well at 8.4 points a game. The Mocs have also held opponents to a scary 20% on third down tries. That’s is good for #1 in FCS as well. They are formidable. Their schedule has not been terribly tough, but it did include Samford and a capable, if not consistent, Furman team.
On offense the Mocs have also had success. They average 428 yards a game. 206 through the air and 222 on the ground; nice and balanced. Alejandro Bennifield has settled in nicely as the starting QB going 65/100 tossing 11 TDs and just 4 interceptions. They have a dangerous running back in Derrick Craine who averages 104 a game.
UTC averages over 33 minutes of possession a game and they are limiting penalties to 54 yards a game. They are +3 in turnover on the year. They are solid on special teams including making 4/5 field goals. Their punters have averaged 42 yards a kick.
Mercer has done well on offense gaining 389 balanced yards a game. Senior QB John Russ has gone 85/134 for 905 yards on the year including 5 TDs and only 1 interception. Mercer has two capable running backs in Payton Usher and Alex Lakes, with both being able to get a 100 game pretty easily.
On defense Mercer has been decent allowing 357 yards a game, but they are allowing opponents to convert on third downs about 45% of the time. They keep the ball about 29 minutes a game and are at +3 on the turnovers. One area that is of concern is they lead the SOCON in penalties per game and yards racking up almost 78 yards a game.
If Mercer is to have a chance in this game it needs to control the ball and keep it out of the hands of the Mocs offense. Mercer can probably stop the Mocs here and there, but it must overcome the UTC defense and execute sustained drives to have any shot of winning. Discipline on special teams and penalties are a must in order to not give Chattanooga any freebies. If UTC gets any cheap scores, they are toast. Mercer is poised and will not wilt under adversity, but it is hard to come back on the Mocs.
Look for the Mocs to win by at least two TDs as they remember last year’s disappointing loss.
Wofford at Western Carolina 7PM (TV-ASN)
Western Carolina is looking to rebound after getting bounced by The Citadel last week. Wofford is looking to bounce back as well after a close loss to Samford. Wofford unfortunately will get a WCU defense that just saw the option attack. Likewise, WCU will get a Wofford defense that just saw the prolific passing attack of Samford. Should be a good game in the mountains.
WCU had no answer for The Citadel’s option attack this past week. On the year the Cats are giving up 315 yards…on the ground per game. Add 215 through the air as well per game, and WCU better score a lot to overcome giving up 530 yards each week. They haven’t.
The Catamounts have gained 393 yards each week and they are scoring an average of 24 a game. Redshirt freshman Tyrie Adams is #2 in the SOCON and has gone 84/125 with 4 interceptions and 7 TDs. But against a determined defense last week, he was sacked 6 times and held to 91 yards. Wofford is getting almost 3 sacks a game so the WCU offensive line has got to give him more time if the Cats are to have a shot this week. On the ground, Western is gaining a modest 135 a game behind Detrez Newsome who averages 81 a game.
Wofford is a running machine gaining 310 yards a game on the ground. That is good for #2 in the SOCON and #4 in FCS. They have a meager passing attack of 78 yards a game and are averaging 12 yards a completion. But their running pays off and the Terriers convert 3rd downs about 48% of the time and they have the ball about 35 minutes a game. They have been averaging 57 yards a game in penalties.
There is no doubt that Adams may become a great QB for the Cats, but right now they seem to be sputtering on offense. They only convert about 33% on 3rd downs and hold the ball for a dismal 23:45 a game. This may play right into Wofford’s hands.
Western’s special teams are ok, with their punter being a bright spot with a 43 yard average. Wofford has the worst kickoff return average in the SOCON at just 17 yards. On turnovers, WCU is -2 and Wofford is +4.
Western Carolina better make some serious adjustments this week if they expect to stop Wofford. Not sure they can, but expect the Cat’s offense to do better this week. Wofford should win by no more than one or two scores up in Cullowhee.
