SWAC Week 7 Preview
Charles Wells, SWAC Contributor | October 15, 2015
ALABAMA STATE @ ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Thursday October 15 6:30 p.m. CST
Golden Lion Stadium (16,000) Pine Bluff, Ark.
TV: ESPNU
Series: Alabama State leads, 11-6
Last Meeting: September 18, 2014 – Montgomery, Ala.
Alabama State 42, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7
The Hornets continued their disappointing season with another loss, this time losing to Southern in a game in which they were down double digits most of the way. The Hornets have to regain their poise on offense, and they may again have a QB controversy as Daniel Duhart had a better outing in relief of Ellis Richardson. This week the task is a bit easier but not by much, the Hornets have a road trip on a short week. For ASU to have success they need to run the ball early to take the pressure off their passing game. UAPB struggles against the run so that will help the Hornets. Alabama State has the 2nd ranked defense in the league will Pine Bluff is 9th in offense. The going will be tough for the Golden Lions as they have yet to find consistency on offense. The running game for UAPB will be key to keep the pressure off QB Marcus Terrell. The Golden Lions absolutely must take care of the football as they have been careless so far this season. Both teams are pretty much out of the title race so this will be an interesting Thursday night TV game. Prediction: ASU 31 UAPB 20
Jackson state @ Alabama A&M
Saturday October 17 1:00 p.m. CST
Louis Crews Stadium (21,000) Huntsville, Ala.
TV: None
Series: Jackson State leads, 15-10
Last Meeting: October 4, 2014 – Jackson Miss.
Alabama A&M 25, Jackson State 14
Two teams who had some expectations coming into the season, both are facing a harsh reality. Jackson State was seen as the SWAC darkhorse by some, but now after a horrible start are coming into this game with an interim coach. How will this affect the Blue Bengals? Offensively JSU is very dangerous passing the ball as LaMontiez Ivy leads the league in passing. JSU’s problem is that they are one dimensional, they rank last in the SWAC in rushing. AAMU is last in the league in defense so JSU should have no problems moving the ball. I don’t think AAMU can contain the Williams and Moll receiving combination. When JSU is on defense that’s when the problems arise, although the unit has talent they have struggled mightily to keep teams out the end zone as they are 9th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense. Last week Grambling shut down AAMU’s offense, this week I expect De’Angelo Ballard to get the offense back on track. Tevin McKenzie should be his top target through the air. Harvey Harris and Bryan Brower should keep the Tigers honest with their running ability. Both teams need a win badly for morale, my only concern is if the scoreboard operator will be able to keep up. These teams are even so with that I go with the team with the intact staff and the one that’s playing at home. Prediction: AAMU 42 JSU 34
ALCORN STATE VS. GRAMBLING STATE
Saturday October 17 2:25 p.m. CST
Jack Spinks Stadium (22,500) Lorman, Miss.
TV: ESPN3
Series: Grambling State leads, 41-19-1
Last Meeting: October 11, 2014 – Grambling, La.
Grambling State 28, Alcorn State 21
This would easily be the SWAC game of the week if there wasn’t a huge game taking place 111 miles down the road. This is the co-game of the week and a rematch of the game that got Grambling back on track in the SWAC. Grambling brings a high powered offense into this matchup, led by QB Jonathan Williams the Tigers are striking through the air as they rank 3rd in passing offense. Williams likes to spread the ball around as he will have at least 5 targets at his disposal. The difference this year is that Grambling can run the ball (ranked 3rd in the league) Martez Carter is a home run hitter and he can strike from anywhere. He is also a threat in the return game. The Braves defense will get their toughest test since the Georgia Tech game (not comparing Grambling and Tech at all, don’t worry). Alcorn brings the top defense in the league into this game, so this matchup is strength vs strength. On the other side Alcorn has a potent running attack led by Darryan Ragsdale and QB John Gibbs. The Braves want to attack with their read option offense, and although he isn’t the caliber of Jonathan Williams, Gibbs is a capable passer when necessary. The problem from Grambling is that although the lead the league in rush defense they struggle against the pass. So if the Braves can move the ball on the ground they can strike through the air on Grambling. This will be a very entertaining game. Both teams lead their division but Grambling has challengers so this game is huge for them. The Braves want revenge, I think they get it. Prediction: ASU 38 GSU 35
TEXAS SOUTHERN @ MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Saturday October 17 2:00 p.m. CST
Rice-Totten Field (10,000) Itta Bena, Miss.
TV: None
Series: Mississippi Valley State leads, 26-25-1
Last Meeting: October 4, 2014 – Itta Bena, Miss.
Texas Southern 20, Mississippi Valley State 16
This preview can be summed up quickly, TSU is average leaning toward bad while MVSU is horrible. I think Valley will not win a game this season, this is one of the few opportunities they have to play a team that is close to their level. Point blank, TSU will get whatever they want this week. The Tigers are average running the ball and despite having a huge 6’7” receiving target, they don’t pass the ball well. They have played musical QB’s as they have done the last few seasons so that can impact the chemistry of the offense. Valley doesn’t defend the run well, they do play well against the pass (although that is because teams don’t have to pass to beat them). Expect to see heavy doses on the run game from TSU as they try to get on track. On the other side of things Texas Southern is ranked 3rd in total defense and they face a Valley offense that is averaging 234 total yards per game and 9 points per game. The word inept doesn’t do Valley justice. Valley has to find an identity and stick with it. I expect them to try to run and hopefully shorten the game. I feel like this will be a long Homecoming for Valley. Texas Southern will put up some numbers. Prediction: TSU 42 MVSU 6
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M @ SOUTHERN
Saturday October 17 4:00 p.m. CST
Ace W. Mumford Stadium (28,500) Baton Rouge, La.
TV: None
Series: Southern leads, 45-20-4
Last Meeting: September 20, 2014 – Prairie View, Texas
Southern 34, Prairie View A&M 24
Finally our other co-game of the week and this one is huge in the West division race. PVU heads to Baton Rouge to face the Jaguars on their Homecoming. Stop me if you’ve read this before, the offenses will dictate this game. But the team that wins will be the one to generate the most stops. PVU comes into this matchup with the top ranked offense in the league. They can do damage through the air and on the ground. QB Trey Green has developed into one of the top signal callers in a short time. And he has weapons at his disposal, the two headed RB combo of Johnta Hebert and Courtney Brown are more than capable of controlling a game on the ground. While Nick Pitre and Demarquo Lastrappe are the top targets through the air. They face a Southern defense that specializes in bending but not breaking. The Jags are 5th in total defense and 3rd against the run. PVU will look to attack Southern’s young but talented secondary. When the Jags have the ball expect them to run to set up the pass, last week Alabama State held the Jags to 53 yards on the ground but QB Austin Howard had a huge game through the air. PVU is average at best against the run and the pass so the Jags should be able to move the ball. Expect to see heavy doses of Lenard Tillery and Malcom Crockett on the ground. The Jags have about 7 or 8 targets through the air, so PVU has to be careful in coverage. Special teams is huge for both teams as they both have exciting return men, Hebert from PVU and Southern’s Willie Quinn are both capable of taking it to the house. This is a do or die game in the West Division, if PVU loses they are 2 games out of first and on the brink of elimination. If Southern loses they fall into a tie with PVU for second (if Grambling loses to Alcorn, then it’s a three way tie for first). The last time these two teams met in Baton Rouge they combined for 121 points and PVU already has a game with a basketball score on their ledger. I don’t think this one will be any different. Prediction SU 49 PVU 45
