The SOCON has 2 OOC games including FBS bound Coastal Carolina and Bucknell as well as a key conference matchup between Chattanooga and Samford. ETSU also looks to continue its winning ways against Wofford during its return season to the SOCON. (SOCON Weekly Notes)
ETSU at Wofford 1:30PM (ESPN3) (Wofford Game Notes)
ETSU put the SOCON on notice last week that they are ready and capable of playing in the SOCON by knocking off Western Carolina. The Bucs did well in the first week stopping Kennesaw State’s running game. But they are not Wofford.
The Terriers have cranked out 300+ yards a game on the ground with Lorenzo Long leading the way with about 90 a game. But the Terriers have a stable of capable runners. Wofford is converting over 50% of their 3rd downs. The ETSU defense is not exceptional. They allowed WCU to score 31 points while WCU only had the ball for 22 minutes last week. They are allowing 390 yards a game on average. However, they have prospered by controlling the clock fairly well, averaging over 33 minutes of possession per game. But that is how Wofford operates as well.
The Bucs offense has been fairly balanced so far with QB Austin Herink going 42/63 for 483 yards. He has no interceptions and 3 TDs as well. Herink’s performance against WCU earned him SOCON Offensive Player of the Week. ETSU has also sustained their drives making a solid 56% of their 3rd down conversions while averaging 155 yards on the ground and 241 through the air. The Wofford Defense has allowed only 258 yards a game. While that included an effort against hapless JC Smith, it also included Ole Miss.
The Bucs can certainly make a game of it, especially if turnovers plague Wofford. That is always the bane of option teams, although Wofford is on the plus side of the turnover margin so far. Penalties have hurt ETSU a bit registering 100 yards a game. Wofford has about half that. Both teams have not done well on kickoff or punt returns.
ETSU’s storybook season will probably come to an end with Wofford’s constant grind of the option attack wearing down the Bucs defense. Look for Wofford to win by three scores at home.
#22 Samford at #6 Chattanooga 2PM (SDN) (Samford / UTC Game Notes)
In a key SOCON matchup, the Mocs hope to again put the Samford Bulldogs in the dog house for the SOCON championship race. Chattanooga’s defense will be tested by an explosive Samford passing attack.
The Moccasins lead FCS in total defense after 3 games holding opponents to just 164 yards a game. After registering 2 shutouts they also lead FCS in scoring defense allowing only 2 late scores by Furman last week. While their offensive opposition has been mediocre so far, this is still impressive. Their defensive line is stout and they will be sack hungry against Samford’s Devlin Hodges. The Mocs already have 10 in three games. If there is a weakness in their defense it may be in the secondary. Give Hodges time and he may strike. Hodges is averaging almost 300 yards a game. He is 62/84 with 1 interception and 8 TDs. Last week against the Mocs, Furman’s Reese Hannon came off the bench in the third and still finished 14-20 for 174 yards. If Samford’s offensive line can protect Hodges (and that is a big if) or they can maintain success with an up tempo quick strike passing attack, the Mocs will have a game on their hands.
Against the run Chattanooga has been impressive allowing only 185 total yards in 3 games. Given that Samford recorded a minus 25 yards a couple weeks ago against Central Arkansas, they will have a long day if they can’t figure out how to move the ball on the ground, at least a little bit.
On offense, the Mocs have been able to move the ball fairly well averaging a perfectly balanced 204 yards each for running and passing. QB Alejandro Bennifield has gone 30/40 with 2 interceptions and 9 TDs. He has a decent arm and is gaining more confidence as the season progresses. The Moc’s leading running back Derrick Craine has averaged 78 yards a game. Samford has given up 356 yards a game. But in their one game against a Div I opponent they gave up 577 yards including huge chunks in the 4th quarter, albeit with a lead at the time. Samford will be doomed if they can’t get more defensive stops.
Both teams have fairly good special teams and they are on the plus side on the turnover margins. The game will come down to the effectiveness of UTC’s defense against Hodges passing game. He will have some success, but the Mocs should be able to limit him and win by at least 2 touchdowns.
VMI at Bucknell 3PM (VMI Radio) (VMI Game Notes)
The Keydets of VMI travel to Bucknell for their 3rd consecutive road game to start the season. Behind the arm of Al Cobb, VMI is looking for its first winning season since 1981. They lost to the Bison last year at home in OT 22-28. That was one of 4 games where they lost by 1 score. Their road victory two weeks ago was their first in 6 years. They are close.
Cobb just missed becoming the all time career passer at VMI the last game. He will get it this week; he only needs 30 yards. He is averaging 203 yards a game going 42-69 with no interceptions and 4 TDs in 2 games. Their leading receiver, Aaron Sanders leads the conference with 9 catches per game. VMI is rushing 136 yards a game. They have had problems converting 3rd downs going a disappointing 30%.
They will have to be productive to get by Bucknell. The Keydet defense is giving up 472 yards a game, although one game was against FBS Akron. They hung in well in that game, staying within 2 points until the 4th quarter. They have held their 2 opponents to 134 yards a game on the ground.
They have a respectable return average, but have gone 2-7 on FGs. They lead the conference in fewest penalties and have a positive turnover margin. They aren’t making a lot of mistakes.
If Cobb continues his accurate throwing and the team continues to be disciplined, look for VMI to get a much needed, although close win over Bucknell on the road.
Furman at Coastal Carolina 6PM (Furman Radio)
Furman finishes out a ridiculously hard September slate of games at FBS bound Coastal Carolina (after playing FBS #8 Mich St, FCS #9 The Citadel, and FCS #6 UTC). Coastal may have gained some undefined edge by their announced move, but like some previous SOCON teams who have moved up, that does not necessarily translate into any actual advantage, yet. And depending on how they are grooming their players, it may actually hurt. In any event, Coastal has owned Furman lately with the Paladins losing 5 times in 5 years, although they were all one score losses with 2 going to OT. In other words, Furman would love to win this one.
And they have a chance. Furman’s defense has not disappointed. They have limited Mich St to 28, The Citadel to 19 and UTC to 21 points. Their problem is on offense where they just can’t seem to generate any yardage. They have only managed to gain an average of 260 yards, with only 81 on the ground each week, but it was against 3 very good defenses. After they struggled against UTC in the first half this past week, they had some success after their starting QB P.J. Blazejowski was knocked out of the game and Reese Hannon replaced him. And while UTC had the game in hand, Hannon did engineer two 4th quarter scoring drives to make it respectable. It will be interesting to see who they start this week. CCU is allowing 199 yards through the air each game and 208 on the ground.
After a couple scrimmages against Lamar and Florida A&M which they dominated, the Chanticleers gave Jacksonville State all they could handle losing 26-27. CCU is averaging 398 yards per game. Against a decent JSU defense they only managed 348 with a paltry 42 on the ground. Furman is allowing 316 yards a game, including only 147 through the air. Granted their opposition has not consisted of explosive passing teams, but Furman may be able to limit CCU’s passing game.
Furman’s special teams are solid. They have limited the penalties to a respectable 45 yards a game, but they are last in turnover margin in the SOCON and have a -1 tally.
In order to win they obviously need to generate better numbers on offense. If they can, and their defense holds up, Furman can pull off the upset. If for no other reason, they are due. Don’t be surprised with a one score upset by Furman over CCU. Call it a parting gift.
