SLC PREVIEW for games 10-1 and 10-3.
UCABEAR (AnyGivenSaturday.com), SLC Contributor | September 30, 2015
10/1 – Game
Lamar (1-0) at Southeastern Louisiana (1-0)
One team will be undefeated in conference Thursday night as Lamar, who beat conference favorite Sam Houston, travels to take on the Lions of Southeastern. Let’s look at how the two teams compare:
Points per game: Lamar 49 SELA 25. Advantage Lamar.
Passing yards per game: Lamar 217 SELA 88. Advantage Lamar
Rushing yards per game: Lamar 255 SELA 251. TIE
Defense PPG: Lamar 39 SELA 24. Advantage SELA
Thoughts: Lamar appears to have a potent offense averaging 7 TDs per game but SELA has been strong on defense getting 13 sacks and 8 INTs so far this year. If Lamar can control the clock with the run game and avoid turning it over to the strong Lion defense they could come away with a win in Hammond. But a defense putting up those stats might be disruptive enough to do the damage they need for the win. Lamar seems balanced on offense in the run game and the O-line has given the QB enough time to pass the ball.
Prediction: Lamar 31 SELA 21
10/3- Games
Northwestern State (0-2) at UIW (1-1)
The Demons can get back into the conference race by defeating a UIW team that hung with a tough FBS UTEP team.
Team comparison:
Points per game: NWST 18 UIW 15. TIE
Passing YPG: NWST 169 UIW 200. TIE
Rushing YPG: NWST 139 UIW 128. TIE
Defense PPG: NWST 47 UIW 24. Advantage UIW
Thoughts: These teams seem eerily similar in their stats with the exception of defensive points per game allowed. The Demons are giving up way too many per game and have very little run defense and really no pass defense. UIW isn’t scoring many points per game but isn’t allowing opponents to score too much either. Because of this I’m going with:
Prediction: UIW 28 NWST 14
College of Faith (club team or D2/D3) at HBU (0-2)
I’ll make this one easy. Everyone is scoring on College of Faith. Stats don’t need to be put up for this one…but I will.
HBU rushing 212 per game. 142 passing YPG.
Thoughts: It won’t be a matter of WHO will win but rather the scoring margin. HBU in a route.
Prediction: HBU 49 CoF 7
McNeese (2-0) at Nicholls (0-1)
The undefeated Cowboys travel to play the Colonels who are struggling to get a win this year. Let’s look at the team stats for both. Keep in mind the Cowboys game vs. FBS LSU was rained out.
Points per game: McNeese 36 Nicholls 3. Advantage McNeese
Passing YPG: McNeese 193 Nicholls 92. Advantage McNeese
Rushing YPG: McNeese 244 Nicholls 138. Advantage McNeese
Defense PPG: McNeese 6 Nicholls 38. Advantage McNeese
Thoughts: Looking at the stats above this game should be a one sided event. Nicholls appears to have NO offense and can’t stop a team from scoring over 5 TDs a game. McNeese goes into beast mode on defense and scores at least 35 a game. This is a lopsided win for the Cowboys so I’m going with:
Prediction: McNeese 52 Nicholls 7
SFA (0-2) v. Sam Houston (1-1) – Neutral Site game. Battle of the Piney Woods.
Talk about one of those games where stats don’t matter and previous games don’t matter. However Sam Houston has won the last 4 games against the Lumberjacks. But again, the Lumberjacks are 0-4 and have absolutely NOTHING to lose and would love to ruin the Bearkats year.
Let’s look at team stats to compare them anyway.
Points per game: Sam 51 SFA 20. Advantage Sam
Passing YPG: Sam 383 SFA 209. Advantage Sam
Rushing YPG: Sam 252 SFA 193. Advantage Sam.
Defense PPG: Sam 41 SFA 42. TIE
Thoughts: Both teams are allowing over 40 points per game. Sam Houston however is scoring over 50 per game while SFA is having trouble scoring over 20. Even with those facts, this game is always a battle so I’ll go with:
Prediction: Sam Houston 42 SFA 28
ACU (2-0) at UCA (1-0)
Two undefeated teams will go toe to toe in Conway next Saturday. Last year UCA went down to the Wildcats easily to the surprise of everyone in the conference. UCA wins 85% of its games at home plus this one is the first home game of the year and the stadium should be packed!
Let’s look at how the two teams stack up against each other:
Points per game: ACU 32 UCA 24. Advantage ACU
Passing YPG: ACU 235 UCA 241. TIE
Rushing YPG: ACU 131 UCA 159. TIE
Defense PPG: ACU 29 UCA 32. TIE
Thoughts: UCA has played a top 25 FCS and top 25 FBS team and has had NO home games yet. ACU starts killer row with upcoming games against UCA, Lamar, and Sam Houston. Watching the Bears play the other night the defense has stepped up and the offense has found its rhythm. Both teams appear to be equal stat wise. This is one tough game to call but I’ll go with:
Prediction: UCA 28 ACU 24
Conference thoughts: McNeese appears to be rolling. UCA, if they finally have it together, can be conference spoilers for the top teams. SFA has really under-impressed and underachieved. Sam Houston may have problems winning the conference with two games on the road toward the end of the season. Lamar is making some serious noise. SLU is winning but doesn’t look as strong as last year. The conference is up for grabs this early in the year with 9 conference games that have to be played this year.
