2015: 5-6 (3-5)
Key Returnees: RB Michael Fredrick, RB Trevor Bouma, WR Brandt Van Roekel, DB Tyson Graham
Key Losses: DL Andrew Van Ginkel, DL Drew Iddings, LB Keye Lage, WR Eric Shufford, LB Ryan Hillier, DB Micheal Lilly
For the first time as a MVFC program the Coyotes are heading into the season without Joe Glenn at the helm. Glenn stepped aside during the off season and in came a proven commodity in Bob Nielson. Not only is Nielson a proven commodity, USD grabbed from a conference rival in Western Illinois. Nielson took WIU from a downward spiral and led them to the playoffs last season and developed a roster full of talent. So while it’s never fun to break in a new coach, especially in the MVFC, it helps to have it be a guy who knows the conference and has proven he can do it. Glenn went just 12-34 in his time with USD in the MVFC, including just 6-26 in conference play. I know I catch a ton of flak from USD fans on our forums for what I’ve said about USD, but they are now out of excuses moving forward. They have a coach that’s proven he can recruit and win at a place where it’s difficult. If ever there was a time for optimism in Vermillion, it’s now. Just how high should we have expectations right now though?
While Nielson is stepping into a program that has been at/towards the bottom of the MVFC every season, he isn’t stepping into a place devoid of talent. Nielson developed two quarterbacks at WIU that had all conference potential, and he stepped in with Ryan Saeger going into his senior season looking to change the tune around Coyote football. Saeger started all 11 games at quarterback for USD last season going 165-299 for 1,984 yards. Saeger finished 4th in the conference last year in yards passing per game, but was 10th in efficiency. Part of that is he had just 12 touchdowns and 7 picks. In order for USD’s offense to take a step towards getting into a middle of the pack team that has to improve. Due to the inconsistencies, and Seager’s strengths not matching what Nielson wants to do on offense don’t be shocked to see newcomer Chris Streveler take the job. Streveler transferred in from Minnesota this off season. Streveler had an offer from South Dakota State coming out of high school and seems to fit the same type of mold that Jackrabbits QB Taryn Christion fits. He appears to still be more mobile than what Nielson is used to working with, but has the arm talent to fit Nielson’s system better than Seager might.
Fortunately for whoever is taking the snaps Brandt Van Roekel (33-518-6) is back and will anchor the outside. Outside of Brandt though, we see a drop. Gone is leading receiver, Eric Shufford (45-470-2). Gone is 4th leading target, Nick Meyer (16-208-1). Only one returning receiver had more than 15 catches, TE Aaron Ramsey (17-204-1). That isn’t a sign the talent is low, it is partially due to the style of offense USD has ran the last few years. There hasn’t been a strong need for a roster full of wide receivers putting up numbers. It will be interesting to see if Nielson brings his system, which is much more reliant on the pass, and tries to implement it right away. If so he will need guys to step up, and it will have to be someone we don’t know much about right now. There are currently only 5 wide receivers listed on USD’s roster and outside of Brandt none had more than 5 catches last season.
The smart thing may be to use this year to build on one of the things USD has done relatively well since they joined the conference, run the ball. Michael Fredrick burst on the scene last year running for 622 yards as a true freshman last season, though he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Fredrick got his change because of an injury to Trevor Bouma, who broke his arm against NDSU. Bouma had 435 yards and 6 TD through the first 6 games, and was doing so at 6.0 yards per carry. Add in Ryan Saeger’s 350 yards and you’ve got a dangerous group. USD needs to get better run block though, as as a team they averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year.
The issue for the ‘yotes, especially last year, wasn’t that the offense was bad, though it wasn’t great. The offense was put into situations they weren’t comfortable with as the defense gave up 26 points per game last season and gave up, at least, 30 points 6 times last season. While USD gave up points last year they did manage to rank in the middle-ish, of the pack in most statistical categories. Sadly for USD, Nielson hasn’t been known for defensive prowess at WIU. On top of that he takes over a team that lost a kid that may have had DPOY potential when Andrew Van Ginkel transferred. Van Ginkel is a huge loss as he finished 3rd in National Freshman of the Year voting last season, was MVFC Newcomer team, and lead the conference in TFL. Last season the Leatherneck defense ranked below USD in points per game, rushing defense, pass defense, sacks, 1st downs given up, 3rd downs conversion rate, and total defense. The worrisome thing when combining the loss of Van Ginkel and Nielson’s history with defense is there isn’t a ton of “top end” talent back for USD on defense. In terms of returning stats, USD returns the least in the conference. Guys like DB Tyson Graham, LB John Wessel and DB Jacob Warner are solid players to build a defense on, but there are a lot of question marks after those three as only one other returner had at least 25 tackles – DL Colin Merlik with 38.
Prediction:
9/1 @ New Mexico – L 0-1 (0-0)
9/10 Weber State – W 1-1 (0-0)
9/17 @ North Dakota – W 2-1 (0-0)
10/1 @ Youngstown State – L 2-2 (0-1)
10/8 Northern Iowa – L 2-3 (0-2)
10/15 @ Indiana State – L 2-4 (0-3)
10/22 Illinois State – L 2-5 (0-4)
10/29 Western Illinois – L 2-6 (0-5)
11/5 @ Southern Illinois – W 3-6 (1-5)
11/12 @ South Dakota State – L 3-7 (1-6)
11/19 North Dakota State – L 3-8 (1-7)
I can hear the screams from USD fans already. I can already hear the things USD fans on AGS would/will type as a reply: “Something about jealous of Hawkeyes”, “Scared that USD is the sleeping giant coming for UNI”, etc… Settle a bit, USD fans. I see a future at USD that I didn’t with Glenn at the helm. I think USD is going to be better than that in terms of competitive level, I just don’t see the record showing it this year. I won’t be shocked at all to see USD beat UNM, YSU, Indiana State, Illinois State or Western Illinois. If YSU and ISUb were home games, I give USD the nod. I want to give USD more wins, I really do. Much like how I came to UNI’s record a few days ago, I have to predict based on who I think has the better chance to win and this year USD falls on the wrong sie of that. I’d be surprised to USD beat UNI, but it won’t catch me completely off guard. I won’t be shocked to see USD at 5 or 6 wins. I think 5-6 with 3 or 4 conference wins is realistic this year. I think they have good talent at the top, I just don’t think they have depth right now. Nielson will bring that, at least on offense. For the first time I actually think USD had a bit of a future to look forward too, assuming Nielson isn’t poached if he has success. I just don’t like how the schedule sets for for USD this year. Flip a couple home/road games and move a game from early to MVFC play to late and I’d predict this different. I don’t think you’re MVFC title bound anytime soon, but I think Nielson can get USD to fighting for a playoff spot, like he did with WIU, before this years freshman class graduates.
