2015: 9-5, Quarterfinals
Key Returnees: QB Aaron Bailey, RB Tyvis Smith, DL Karter Schult, LB Jared Farley, OL Robert Rathje
Key Losses: DB Deiondre’ Hall, DB Makinton Dorleant, DB Tim Kilfoy, LB Brett McMakin, OL Jacob Rathmacher
Is this the year UNI finally gets a national title? National consensus heading into the season certainly seems to think UNI is one of, maybe, three teams that can dethrone NDSU. As a UNI fan I can tell you this it the most excited I’ve been about a team since the 2007 and 2008 UNI teams, which took the typical UNI bad bounce out of the playoffs. I know it’s easy to look at what has transpired since 2010, especially with the offensive side of the ball, and question what I just said. The complete lack of identity on offense, the instability that has happened yearly at the quarterback position, the fact UNI is on it’s third offensive system in three years, and lack of true “known star” at the wide receiver position should mean the expectations should be dropped a bit, the loss of the entire secondary and the teams leading tackler to the NFL, yet they are as high as they’ve been in a decade. Why?
This might be the first year, under Mark Farley, the offense has less questions than the defense and it all starts with the fact there is no, at least shouldn’t be, quarterback battle/controversy. Not just that, UNI has the most explosive player in the conference at that position. Bailey was part of a two quarterback system last fall through the first six games with Sawyer Kollmorgen. Another concussion ended Sawyer’s Panther career and the reigns were handed to Bailey full time. Once he was given the full time job he excelled. He completed 59.9% of his passes for 994 yards with 8 touchdowns and just one interception. The yards were on the lower end, but there is no questioning the efficiency. On top of the passing Bailey carried the ball 170 times for 864 yards (5.14 ypc, which includes sacks and sack yards) and 15 touchdowns. Imagine Bailey having the system built around him from day 1 of spring camp. The thing Bailey must improve is letting routes develop. Due to his freakish athletic ability he is quick to pull the ball down and run. For the offense to be as effective as it can he must develop that skill. I know it was preached during spring ball, to the point where if he broke the pocket at all during a play it was blown dead.
Complimenting Bailey in the backfield is Tyvis Smith, who like Bailey, wasn’t the starter (or even get significant time) until the second half of the season. The 6’3 225lb back is built nearly identical to his predecessor, David Johnson, and when given the ball he seems to run like him. Tyvis finished with 1,079 yards on 182 carries (5.9 yards per carry) last season. They key factor for the run game will be keeping both Bailey and Smith healthy as there isn’t much proven depth behind them. Michael Malloy looked like a promising change of pace back, and was used in a scat back role last year to growing success as the season went on before he suffered a season ending injury. While UNI’s offense has been known to produce talented running back after talented running back I think there should be real concern about proven depth should Smith or Malloy go down with an injury.
The receiving corps has two guys that have proven they can get open: Daurice Fountain and Charles Brown. Fountain, a big downfield target with speed, lead the team in receptions (41), yards (604) and touchdowns (5) last season. Brown, a smaller and shiftier slot type, was second in receptions (30) and yards (345) and third on the team in touchdowns (2). Between the two of them we have 59% of the returning receptions, 62% of the yards and 59% of the touchdowns. The key will be who steps in to take pressure off those two. Running back Michael Malloy, as mentioned earlier, made some plays as the season wore on our of a slot look but this team still needs another guy or two to step up and take some secondary attention from Fountain and Brown. My biggest concern, for the entire group, is improving the catch rate. While drops aren’t kept as an official stat it felt as though there were times last season that over half of the incompletions were a result of a drop rather than a poor throw. That will need to be remedied for Bailey to grow. For Bailey to trust his arm more than his legs he must have confidence the receiving corp is going to going to make the play when he needs them too.
The defense could, and probably should, be considered a question mark. Gone to the NFL are LB Brett McMakin, CB/S Deiondre’ Hall, CB Makinton Dorleant, S Tim Kilfoy, CB Edwin Young from last years defense. Most teams lose that and I would expect a massive drop off, but UNI (like NDSU) is a different animal when it comes to defense in that it doesn’t entirely matter what the name on the uniform is, though guys like UNI has had come through help. The system is setup to put players in a position to succeed. The secondary will take time to develop, thankfully UNI has one of the best front sevens in the nation every year. On the line Karter Schult (81 tackles, 14 sacks, 22.5 TFL) will force opposing quarterbacks into quick throws and allow the secondary time to develop. The linebacking core will be lead by Jared Farley (97 tackles, 9 TFL, 2.5 sack, INT) and Deshawn Dexter (66 tackles, 11 TFL). Teams won’t be able to run against UNI, once again, so the pressure will be on the secondary to develop as quick as possible.
Prediction:
9/3 @ Iowa State
9/10 Montana
9/17 @ Eastern Washington
10/1 Southern Illinois
10/8 @ South Dakota
10/15 @ Youngstown State
10/22 Missouri State
10/29 North Dakota State
11/5 @ Indiana State
11/12 @ Western Illinois
11/19 South Dakota State
To avoid the calls of “HOMER”, “BOOOO”, “UNI ALWAYS CHOKES”, etc… I won’t predict a record for UNI. It seems right. There are plenty of games that are toss up for me. Iowa State could be a loss, but I don’t trust Iowa State to actually be better and using last year as a litmus for this year is a bad idea. UNI has lost just 2 FCS OOC games since 1997, both at home and both to SFA. I think UNI finally gets revenge on Montana and continues it’s streak against EWU, though the passing game of both scares the hell out of me with the secondary UNI will have. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see one of those two end in a loss. In conference I could see NDSU being a loss, but that game is in Cedar Falls and I don’t think we see UNI lose at home. South Dakota and Indiana State both worry me a bit. UNI has had some issues with both as of recent years, and going to Indiana State the week after NDSU should raise a flag. Both NDSU and UNI have a big of a “down” the week after that war. I think this is a legit title contender. Yes, I think 11-0 is possible, though likely not realistic. I see 9-2 being the most likely situation and anything worse than 8-3 is, from a preseason view, a complete let down.
