2015 Record: 7-6 (5-3), 2nd Round Playoff loss
Key Returnees: QB Trenton Norvell, QB Sean McGuire, WR Lance Lenoir, WR Joey Borsellino, LB Brett Taylor, LB Adam Brott, DB David Griffith
Key Losses: RB Nikko Watson, DL Kris Harley, DL Eddy Holtschlag, DL Gavin Ricketts
Last season the Leathernecks became the first team in FCS history to receive an at-large berth into the playoffs with just 6 wins. Depending which side of the playoff bubble you fell on that was either the best, or worst thing to ever happen to the forums on AnyGivenSaturday.com. Think what you want about a 6 win team getting into the playoffs, the ‘Necks did technically finish 3rd in the MVFC a head of UNI and SDSU. The drawback to that bid though? It may have cost them their head coach, as Bob Neilson was poached by intraconference rival South Dakota…presumably to a higher salary. No time was wasted in finding a replacement though as Charlie Fisher was brought in from Richmond, where he had served as offensive coordinator for a highly successful Spider program.
The first decision Fisher must make is who to play at quarterback, as he has two capable options. If you read anything I said on AGS last year (on on The FCS Wedge radio show) I was a firm believer that WIU had the best QB/WR/RB combo in the MVFC with Norvell, Watson and then Borsellino and Lenior at wide receiver. Norvell is a three year starter in Macomb that has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 53 touchdowns in 33 games. With all of that why would there be a question about him starting going into this final season for the Leathernecks? Well, Norvell missed the final four games of the season due to an emergency appendectomy and in stepped redshirt freshman Sean McGuire. In those four games McGuire went 3-1, 85-158 for 1,159 yards with 6 touchdowns, though he had 6 picks as well. He was also was named MVFC Newcomer of the Week, STATS National Freshman of the Week, and to the MVFC All Newcomer team. That kind of production is impossible to ignore, and a new coach coming in has no preexisting feelings towards the long time starter and sees a guy with 3 years left to start and build his team around. No matter who starts Coach Fisher, it’s clear they are one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. Though, much like South Dakota State, I’d worry about trying to run a two quarterback system, should that be the path.
The Leathernecks will need to quickly find a replacement for the bowling ball that was Nikko Watson. In terms of play making ability, Watson probably wasn’t a top half running back in the conference last year. However, when it came time to get the tough yards and make a play there were few better than Nikko. I’m not entirely sure how Coach Fisher wants to utilize the running back position, but it looks thin from the outside. The leading returners are Steve McShane (65 carries 232 yards) and Devon Moore (68 carries 228 yards 4 TD). Give the talent at quarterback and receiver we may not need to see much, in terms of stats, from this position for the offense to succeed, but if I were a Leatherneck fan I’d be hesitant about getting the tough yards this coming season.
That brings us to what I consider the strongest position group in the entire conference – the Leatherneck wide receivers. Sure, individual receivers may be better than the guys on WIU’s roster but the 1-2 combo of Lance Lenoir and Joey Borsellino is tough to beat. I’d go as far as calling Borsellino the most under-valued receiver in the nation. Hell, I’d bet a good number of MVFC fans couldn’t tell you who he played for, what position he played, or even if he is a real player if asked about him only by name. Lenoir and Borsellino combined for 145 catches and over 2,000 yards. That’s not a bad 1-2 punch on the outside, folks. Add in Stacey Smith and J’Vaughn Williams, who combined for over 60 reception and 800 yards and you have guys who will exploit Lenoir or Borsellino getting double coverage.
The defense is what I question about this team. It’s why they finished just 6-5 in the regular season last year, despite having (what I consider) the best set of offensive weapons in the league. Coach Neilson has shown the ability to create dynamic offenses but lagged on developing defenses, something I think will be an issue for him at USD as they try to climb from the bottom of the conference. Last season WIU ranked in the bottom half of the conference in total defense (7th-399 yards per game), rush defense (7th- 196 yards per game), scoring defense (7th-29.7 points per game), sacks (9th-17), 1st down against (9th-22 per game), opponent 3rd down conversion (9th-42.1%), and opponent 4th down conversion (7th-57.9%). Coach Fisher is an offensive minded guy so I’m curious how he builds the defense. His defensive coordinator was brought in from Southern Illinois, who was a disaster on defense last season. There is individual talent on defense – LB Brett Taylor, LB Adam Brott, and DB David Griffith are the most notable. WIU did finish with a MVFC high 19 picks and +8 TO margin last season. The pass defense as solid, as you’ll notice the lack of me pointing out the pass stats previously. What worries me is that most of the defensive line is gone from last year. So a defense that was poor against the run loses the foundation of stopping the run. In the MVFC that’s bound to be problematic.
One area I have to mention with WIU, that I haven’t mentioned elsewhere, is the special teams. I haven’t mentioned it with other teams as they are mostly unremarkable in that they don’t hinder the team so they go unnoticed. That’s a good thing. That’s not the case for WIU as they hit just 57% of their field goals, were last in PAT percentage, last in punt average (just 30 yards per punt), and 7th in kick off coverage. That needs to be fixed.
Prediction
9/1 @ Eastern Illinois – W 1-0 (0-0)
9/10 Northern Arizona – W 2-0 (0-0)
9/24 @ Northern Illinois – L 2-1 (0-0)
10/1 @ South Dakota State – L 2-2 (0-1)
108/ Indiana State – W 3-2 (1-1)
10/15 @ Missouri State – W 4-2 (2-1)
10/22 North Dakota State – L 4-3 (2-2)
10/29 @ South Dakota – W 5-3 (3-2)
11/5 Illinois State – W 6-3 (4-2)
11/12 Northern Iowa – L 6-4 (4-3)
11/19 @ Southern Illinois – W 7-4 (5-3)
I could easily see WIU putting the committee in the position of looking at a 6 win team in the playoffs again. The ‘Necks get Illinois State, UNI and NDSU at home. That’s good for ticket sales and pulling off an upset or two. The thing with WIU, is because of the defense and special teams I see every game as 50/50. I could see 3 or 4 wins. I could see 8 or more wins. Coach Fisher walked into a talented team, but can he mold that individual talent into team talent?
